Which party wins Presidency + Popular Vote? | Polymarket Tracker

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Summary

The discussion around the "Which party wins Presidency + Popular Vote?" market appears to be highly dynamic, with participants frequently debating the likelihood of various scenarios. Many believe that the chances of a Republican president coinciding with a Democratic popular vote win are mispriced and possibly worth betting on, while others express skepticism about certain outcomes, such as a Democratic president winning both the presidency and the popular vote. Additionally, confidence in any one outcome being undervalued or overvalued is often referenced, with discussions around shifts following new data releases, for instance from Nate Silver or FiveThirtyEight.

The odds of a Republican president with a Democratic popular vote win are highly debated, with some participants believing it is undervalued and others seeing it as a less likely outcome.
Scenarios where a Democratic candidate wins both the presidency and the popular vote are generally met with skepticism from some participants, pointing to different interpretations of polling data and analysis models.

Comments

Makes total sense. Astute analysis

All I see are Trump comments all over IG. Gonna go with RR

Well you will lose twice then 😂💀

ContrapunctusFerrum

I changed my bet at a significant loss because I know in my bones that Trump is taking the popular vote.

ImHereForTheRewards

What erosion of which profits? You haven't any bets in any markets. (I love PM's transparency :-) )

Liked by n/a, n/a and 9 others

Sudden changes could erode my profits, so I can only remain cautious.

I never thought I’d say this but I hope all those illegals in CA come out and vote for Commie Harris in the millions 😂

they're not independent events though. Trump can win office includes the probability that he also wins the popular vote. Likewise with Harris winning the popular vote includes the probability that she wins office

.65 Trump in office * .62 Kamala wins pop vote = ~0.4 both happen but market here shows 0.27

Throw money down then

Liked by 0x82eBA7b0..., 0xb93c7cBd... and 7 others

Everyone knows Dems rigged 2020 and will do the same in 2024

RD is ridiculously cheap, let's get this bread

few hours left til 1$

JewishGodFatherOfPennies

all jokes aside this bitch literally has to win the popular vote or i stg im bringing so many illegal haitians to cali and eating all the pets

JewishGodFatherOfPennies

gonna take a depression nap better wake up to rd at a dollar or im becoming a full time racist