Which coalition will form the next German government? | Polymarket Tracker

This market is open and accepting bets.

Which coalition will form the next German government?

Last updated 8 months ago

443

Comments

9

Markets

0

Comments per hour

Summary

The discussion centers around potential coalitions forming the next German government after the 2025 elections. The key parties considered include CDU/CSU, SPD, AfD, and the Greens, with various combinations debated. While some speculate on a CDU/CSU and AfD coalition due to shared policy areas like free trade and welfare opposition, others deem it unlikely due to CDU/CSU's reluctance to partner with AfD because of their radical stances. The most commonly anticipated coalition is the Grand Coalition of CDU/CSU and SPD, despite some arguing for the potential inclusion of the Greens. There is also significant attention on the potential recount of BSW votes, which could impact the overall results and coalition dynamics.

Dominant Coalition Scenarios: Many believe the coalition will likely be a Grand Coalition between CDU/CSU and SPD, though the possibility of including the Greens in the coalition is also discussed. Some speculate on a CDU/CSU and AfD coalition, citing policy similarities but acknowledge CDU/CSU's hesitance due to AfD's radical image.
BSW Vote Recount Concerns: There is notable attention on the speculation of a BSW vote recount, driven by issues such as missed voting deadlines and substantial postal vote challenges, potentially impacting coalition outcomes.

Comments

Lasst die Spiele beginnen.

German politics is ridiculous.... Centre right party forming a coalition with far left party instead of negotiating with AFD

you wouldnt be the first to go wrong by generalizing your own bubble, my friend

Funny how people discuss about german politics, but do not actually live in the country to feel whats going on.

Scholz will resign

I.Like.MommyTulsi

Scholz says he won’t personally will not enter into negotiations with CDU to form a coalition. It means that SPD either won’t form a coalition with the CDU or that Scholz is resigning as party leader of the SPD. https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1893783036451328183?t=3YdX6foWcdRxEtcTsDxumA&s=19

SPD is Center left. Linke ist far left. You can‘t just say things

German politics is ridiculous.... Centre right party forming a coalition with far left party instead of negotiating with AFD

How can CDU/CSU, SPD and Greens be that high, after all that happened in the last days??? CDU/CSU and SPD will do it.

SPD/Greens/Linke if SPD manages to rise a few more percent in Polls, CDU minority government, SPD/Greens/Linke/BSW (very unlikely though that we would see a four parties government but not completely impossible as they are all left wing parties). Although none of these options are actually any likely, a 6% chance for all of them combined seems fair.

Other "No" is so undervalued... which other coallitions would even be possible that are not mentioned already ?

you should sell as well

Oh, look the AfD people are starting to save their money and sell 💰

Only really two realistic options imo. CDU +SPD or CDU +SPD+ Greens. They aren't going to work with the FDP even if they somehow make it into parliament, the party is too hard to work with for someone who wants to do things like increase military spending. The other party combos are just non starters.

CDU/CSU, SPD and GRN is the only thing that makes sense given the new distribution reforms and the likelihood of AfD's and Linke's votes being near what they are. If the FDP or BSW get to 5% then it's essentially assured off of the distribution system and current primaries (even within the margin of error) that CDU/CSU & SPD simply cannot get to majority and with Merz's comments about openness to work with GRN and SPD but ruling out FDP, Linke and BSW then CDU/CSU+SPD+GRN is the golden path. Criminally undervalued at 20%.