Unemployment rate over 4.2% in September? | Polymarket Tracker

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Summary

The discussion on the market for the unemployment rate in September revolves around predictions of whether it will exceed 4.2%. Participants discuss survey data from Bloomberg involving economists' forecasts and the implications for market betting odds. A key point of contention is whether the rate being under or over 4.2% is accurately priced. Some participants express confidence in data that suggests a lower rate than 4.2%, while others point out the potential undervaluation of rates considering broader predictions.

There is a discrepancy in economist surveys, with confusion about the proportion predicting each rate. Despite this, many agree that a rate below 4.2% is favored among economists, suggesting potential market mispricing.
Participants debate insider trading implications and market valuation, hinting at strategic selling and trading positions around the forecasted figures.

Comments

Dont laugh. Insider trading. Ceo of WALMART.

Lol someone bought yes at 99c…

Lol someone bought yes at 99c…

FromTheTrenches

Think it should be a 50/50 , no is undervalued as it takes 4.2% in consideration too

FromTheTrenches

You sold quite a lot beforehand but hey profit is profit , gg

totally agree ! i had a too important position so i panic sold a liitle, but fuck the 4.2% and under is clearly favourite among economists surveyed on bloomberg and clearlt underpriced

How TF do you know?

Dont laugh. Insider trading. Ceo of WALMART.

On Bloomberg, among the 45 economists surveyed, 2 see an unemployment rate of 4.1%, 27 see an unemployment rate of 27% and 16 see an unemployment rate of 4.3%. So the probability of "over 4.2%" should be around 35.5%.

totally agree ! i had a too important position so i panic sold a liitle, but fuck the 4.2% and under is clearly favourite among economists surveyed on bloomberg and clearlt underpriced

FromTheTrenches

Think it should be a 50/50 , no is undervalued as it takes 4.2% in consideration too

shouldnt it be 43/45 according to ur incorrect numbers? or did u meant 2.7% and not 27% I think thats what u meant

On Bloomberg, among the 45 economists surveyed, 2 see an unemployment rate of 4.1%, 27 see an unemployment rate of 27% and 16 see an unemployment rate of 4.3%. So the probability of "over 4.2%" should be around 35.5%.

*4.2% and not 27%, of course, i wrote too quickly

shouldnt it be 43/45 according to ur incorrect numbers? or did u meant 2.7% and not 27% I think thats what u meant

and if u want an update, as for now, among 70 economists, 2 see 4,1%, 40 see 4.2% and 28 see 4.3%

shouldnt it be 43/45 according to ur incorrect numbers? or did u meant 2.7% and not 27% I think thats what u meant