Who will Trump pardon in first 100 days? | Polymarket Tracker

This market is open and accepting bets.

422

Comments

14

Markets

0

Comments per hour

Summary

Discussion on the betting market revolves heavily around the potential pardon of Ross Ulbricht, the Silk Road founder, with many doubting that Trump will take swift action if re-elected. A significant argument presented is that a large proportion of Trump's past pardons occurred at the end of his previous term, implying Ulbricht's pardon is unlikely to happen early. There's also debate about other potential pardons, including Hunter Biden, with some seeing political motives or evaluating it as a "free money" bet given its improbability.

The consensus is that Trump is unlikely to pardon Ulbricht early, given his past pattern of issuing clemencies towards the end of his term.
Speculation about politically charged pardons, like Hunter Biden's, centers around optics and strategic interests, with many dismissing them as unlikely despite betting odds suggesting a possibility.

Comments

I can't wait for Ross market to crash -50% on day 1

People really saw Trump throw the entire non-interventionist wing under the bus and go "yeah trump will totally keep his promise he made to a room of 14 balding incel libertarians"

What if he sneezed and said "pardon me", would that count?

Sir you have 44 shares.

I'm just putting more and more on no. I struggle to find reasons on why trump would do such a thing, it'd give democrats such a great way to attack on him on his "tough on drugs and crime policy" + he also tried to murder people.

Lmao at Poly calling them "protestors." Reminds me of when those protestors flew planes into those buildings they disliked in Lower Manhattan.

on record - "If you vote for me on day one I will commute the sentence of Ross Ulbricth..."

he should pardon Ulbricht

not.nigel.farage

Seriously, first three months of presidency and you expect trump to fastrack the release of Ulbricht? the creator of the silk road? okay man.

this has been discussed for over 4 years now. Trump is an isolationist and has no interests in the libertarian party. the only reason he went to that convention was to secure more votes in what was at the time thought to be a tight race. He'll be spending the next 4 years, let alone 100 days, laser focused on actually important issues like immigration, censorship, Ukraine, the middle east, and eliminating as much corruption/opposition as possible. he has nothing to gain by commuting or pardoning ross and he wont give af if a few libertarians come at him with pitchforks and knives

he said he'd free Ross Ulbricht on day 1. Maybe it won't be day 1, but it will be in first 100 days. Libertarians are 100% going to hold him to this

Wrong19B4rullingEthereumETF

How much money they moved, so how much they bought and sold in total. Buy 100 and sell 120 is 220 volume.

I'm not such an experienced gambler, but what exactly does volume traded mean on people profiles?