Pennsylvania Margin of Victory | Polymarket Tracker

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Summary

In the discussion about the Pennsylvania Margin of Victory, participants analyze vote counts, trends, and implications for betting. Many comments highlight the potential impact of mail-in ballots and discrepancies in vote reporting, especially between major news networks and local data sources. A key topic is the margin's proximity to crucial thresholds (e.g., 2%), with some emphasizing how rounding rules could affect outcomes. Users express varying levels of confidence based on available data and predictions about upcoming vote updates, while discussing strategies like hedging and betting on different margin categories.

Margin Calculations: The margin of victory is closely watched as it hovers near significant thresholds like 1.5% and 2%, with some users debating whether rounding rules apply, which could sway betting outcomes.
Data and Projections: There is contention regarding the projections of mail-in ballots and their potential impact on the margin, alongside discussions about differing data from sources such as AP, CNN, and NBC. These discrepancies influence betting strategies and expected outcomes.

Comments

bid-ask spreads

How do the totals in this add up to 108%

Trump2024-Forever

Why would you disrespect over half the country? This show contempt and disrespect for yourself, I hope you get the mental help you need.

magaots at mara-lardo are melting down as it all slips away, say insiders.

kinda crazy i bought this at 4c too bad it was just to test how this site worked...

t's sitting now at 1.83% lead, a 15K delta in favour of democrats will be enough to turn this into 1.0 - 1.5, Phily and Allegheny still reporting. Tick Tock

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/pennsylvania-president-results

0x526b28c6143D154C5656E37774916c6EF8051a25-1730556919989

no it's 2.1% so far

MOV is at 2.1% why is it going down?

Someone asked for the clarification on the discord market-review. I guess we'll find out soon.

On Kalshi the rules say "rounded to two decimal points". This could really flip the odds. Anyone knows how it looks like here, or is there a way to check it?

Do people realize this is already well below 2% and quickly trending toward 1.5%? Allegheny is still at 95.31% reporting, about to print a 7k vote delta for the Democrats. That county alone will bring it down close to 1.5%, and don't forget Philadelphia is still at 94.04% reporting. You guys are all fucking douchebags, thanks for donating

this is last change to sell YES "2.0-2.5" Now MOV is 1.92