Monkeypox pandemic in 2024? | Polymarket Tracker

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Summary

The discussion centers around the ongoing concerns about monkeypox, specifically the potential for clade Ib to become a pandemic by 2024. Participants shared information about recent developments, including the WHO's strategic plan to contain current outbreaks and skepticism about an actual pandemic declaration. There was a mix of skepticism and concern with some betting on the likelihood of the disease spreading globally. The conversation also touched on strategic considerations for those investing in the outcome of the pandemic through betting.

WHO's containment plan: The WHO launched a strategic preparedness and response plan to manage the monkeypox outbreak, which may influence betting behaviors considering the containment of the virus.
Uncertainty and skepticism: Despite increased cases, participants question the likelihood of monkeypox becoming a pandemic, comparing it to past epidemics and discussing market pricing implications.

Comments

WHO declared it as public health emergency, how far are we from declaring it as a pandemic realistically?

1 election away

WHO declared it as public health emergency, how far are we from declaring it as a pandemic realistically?

The base rate is 2/7 fromPHEICs to Pandemics = 28%. The 7 includes previous mpox, and this one is more severe. Therefore 2/6 may be closer (33%). Even with some margin of error, the true probability could be closer to 20%

seeing you and a few other spectacularly bad traders in top holders was all that i needed to see.

https://x.com/kimdotcom/status/1823785162330735028?s=46&t=18TgfgsMnKK0gyFDrpYaRA

The DNC need a Plandemic to rig the election, this one suits them well because Lefties like to Bum each other.

Mpox: Thai authorities suspect first case. The patient is a European who recently arrived from a trip to Africa. Health officials believe it is a case of the more dangerous Clade 1b variant. https://www.dw.com/en/mpox-thai-authorities-suspect-first-case/a-70000655

WHO declares global emergency: https://apple.news/Ao9oFRIGJR5WPauvYO31ygA

https://x.com/marionawfal/status/1823776701190709639?s=46&t=18TgfgsMnKK0gyFDrpYaRA

0x3b1aed2c8c98845e75566a0eac08d96c67c6a39a

"Sweden Reports First Case Of Deadly Mpox Strain Outside Africa"