Highest temperature in DC on Inauguration Day? | Polymarket Tracker

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Highest temperature in DC on Inauguration Day?

Last updated 2 weeks ago

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Summary

The discussion on the betting market for the highest temperature in DC on Inauguration Day primarily revolves around predictions and analysis of temperature trends in January. Participants referenced historical weather data to challenge or support their bets, with a focus on whether temperatures would reach 28-29F or exceed 30F. There was debate over the forecasting models and a need for clarity on resolution criteria, emphasizing the variability and unpredictability of weather patterns.

The importance of understanding resolution criteria was highlighted, particularly regarding how temperatures would be officially recorded and verified using resources like Weather Underground.
The discussion reflects skepticism about weather forecasts, with differing opinions about the likelihood of temperatures reaching specific ranges. Participants referenced day-by-day temperature data for January to support their arguments.

Comments

Note that the high temperature today was already 28F

False. Just look at day 6 history - https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/va/arlington/KDCA/date/2025-1-6

0x5b4aB42839ad0D40a916a00A78E6D7AF62FB089f-1731850564664

Take a look at the entire month of January, day by day. Each time, the high at the beginning of the day was exceeded every single day. So by betting on 28-29F, you're betting on something that hasn't happened on a single day in January.

Yep, le'ts see but the forecast for the high temperature during daylight is 26F. It's really unlikely to reach 30F.

0x5b4aB42839ad0D40a916a00A78E6D7AF62FB089f-1731850564664

Take a look at the entire month of January, day by day. Each time, the high at the beginning of the day was exceeded every single day. So by betting on 28-29F, you're betting on something that hasn't happened on a single day in January.

pls send me tip 🥹 i will be very grateful

WhoIsMakingTheseMarkets

Never trust the weather man

WhoIsMakingTheseMarkets

I'd love for meteorologists to provide probability distributions like this instead of scalar values on the news

But but but the forecast said

Let's wait for the data to, how do you say, "finalize"

Note that the high temperature today was already 28F

0x5b4aB42839ad0D40a916a00A78E6D7AF62FB089f-1731850564664

Take a look at the entire month of January, day by day. Each time, the high at the beginning of the day was exceeded every single day. So by betting on 28-29F, you're betting on something that hasn't happened on a single day in January.