2024 September hottest on record? | Polymarket Tracker

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Summary

The discussion regarding the betting market on whether September 2024 will be the hottest on record includes skepticism about achieving this status, uncertainty due to conflicting interpretations of data, and the impact of external factors such as hurricane disruptions and El Niño. Many acknowledge that while previous months of 2024 broke records, the start of September seemed less promising due to lower temperatures compared to September 2023. The conversation also reflects confusion over market dynamics and pricing, with participants debating the role of external climate factors, data source availability, and interpreting the implications of climate indicators.

Data Disruption and Records: The discussion highlights data disruptions caused by Hurricane Helene impacting NOAA's data center, delaying the GISTEMP update. Previous months in 2024 broke heat records, but September 2024 began with cooler temperatures compared to September 2023, reducing the likelihood of setting a new record.
Market Dynamics and Interpretations: Participants struggle with interpreting market prices, noting inconsistencies and potential misinformation regarding the criteria for the month to be the "hottest on record." The discussion suggests that market participants have differing assumptions, influenced by broader climate patterns and recent extreme temperatures in other regions.

Comments

I fucking love it here.

Liked by aenews2, IWillRetur... and 13 others

September is usually colder than August, but we will see.

September is usually colder than August, but we will see.

Liked by aenews2, aaron28a and 8 others

Thanks for providing liquidity, we will remember your service

Convince me to buy no at 99 cents if you can

I have a financial incentive for them to say yes. :)

Liked by aenews2, AugustoPin... and 7 others

AugustoPinochet73

Nasa has financial incentive to say yes

September is almost always colder than August, don’t see how this is Yes

Liked by BlueSky123, dreamer and 7 others

This seems like a great place to blow all my money

Meaning we're very far from reaching AGI

Chat gpt states there is a 20%-25% chance September is the hottest on record. "Yes, it does help September 2024's chances that August 2024 was record-breaking in terms of global temperatures. When a month experiences unprecedented heat, it often signals that the factors driving that heat—like El Niño, greenhouse gas emissions, and other climate variables—are still in play. This can increase the likelihood of subsequent months being similarly warm, although it doesn't guarantee consecutive records. Given that August 2024 was reportedly record-breaking, this momentum could push the odds for a hotter-than-average September higher than what the Polymarket odds suggest. However, as with any climate predictions, the variability from regional weather patterns and potential cooling influences (e.g., a delayed La Niña) could moderate these effects( Climate.gov ). Considering this, the odds might justifiably rise to 20-25%, factoring in both the record-breaking summer temperatures and the potential for continued warmth into the fall." p.s. I will buy more yes so feel free to sell!

Trump says it's actually getting colder, makes me feel slightly better about my position

AugustoPinochet73

Nasa has financial incentive to say yes

I can't speak for her, but climate change is very sad and depressing.