Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?
American-American
10 months ago
Incentives and disincentives for both sides regarding an Orthodox Christmas ceasefire: UKRAINE INCENTIVES: -Lock in better terms before Trump -Prevent total military collapse -Maintain some Western leverage -Use remaining negotiating power -Preserve some internal stability UKRAINE DISINCENTIVES: -Still has Western support for 20 days -Military not completely broken -Internal opposition to any deal -Fear of appearing weak -Potential domestic backlash RUSSIA INCENTIVES: -Economic strain relief needed -Orthodox Christmas timing perfect -Can claim significant victories -Control narrative pre-Trump -Use peak leverage moment RUSSIA DISINCENTIVES: -Military momentum strong -Territory gains accelerating -Could get more in 20 days -Ukraine position weakening daily -Why stop when winning CRITICAL INSIGHT: While Russia is winning militarily, the combination of economic strain and Orthodox Christmas timing creates a unique window for a simple ceasefire that would let them claim victory while relieving unsustainable pressures. For Ukraine, accepting now means better terms than under Trump, though military situation isn't totally desperate yet. The disincentives, particularly Russia's military momentum, significantly impact probability.
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