Diddy sex tape released before November?

just.some.guy

4 days ago

USDT is Tether, which works fine here, although they prefer USDC (another stablecoin) on the Polygon blockchain. If any of that seems like a foreign language you can ask any question on the General board of Polymarket's discord. GL!

1

jingyu3

4 days ago

My telegram account is @YYmm3 I need to buy USDT

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

just.some.guy

1 week ago

2 weeks ago I lost $25k on the ground forces into Lebanon market. Take it from me, nothing about Israeli markets is ever easy money.

11

Mgmsx

1 week ago

Easy money for who understands 😉

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

just.some.guy

2 weeks ago

Obviously, I really like your position in this market, but if losing the entire total is keeping you up at night, you might consider selling, say, half the position. That'd do two things: cut your potential loss in half and lock in some profits that would help offset that half-loss in a worst case scenario. Good luck.

2

io9000

2 weeks ago

I am extremely scared to lose money

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

just.some.guy

2 weeks ago

Never risk more than you should. Obviously, that standard's very subjective and different for everyone, but when a loss hurts and bugs you afterwards, maybe decrease your bet amount, at least until you're more used to everything. Good luck!

1

io9000

2 weeks ago

How do you personally deal with losing money? I am extremely inexperienced at it.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

just.some.guy

2 weeks ago

I think that's right: https://vote.uma.xyz/?_gl=1*19u5fl6*_ga*MTUzNjQ4NjgxNy4xNzI4MDI1NTkw*_ga_FMK5W8B58D*MTcyODAyNTU5MC4xLjEuMTcyODAyNzU3OS42MC4wLjA.

0

denizz

2 weeks ago

What's the current voting schedule and procedure? There was already a vote that ended in "too early", right?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

just.some.guy

2 weeks ago

Yeah, that's the most egregious of UMA's many shortcomings.

2

Scoobs

2 weeks ago

Also it has come to my attention that people with financial incentive in this market are the ones who get to vote on the outcome of said market.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

just.some.guy

3 weeks ago

Hear, hear. Solid plan. I'm actually off to take in a first round MLB playoff series, myself. And remember, this thing's a marathon, not a sprint. Have a good one!

1

NotJustKen

3 weeks ago

Fuck this. Going on vacation for few days. Won't open it till then. Fuck the truth as well. My only hope is Pence manipulating the market. Jerusalem Post cleared it that it was to "gain information" not to engage in combat. I don't know how it will resolve to Yes.. Peace out.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

just.some.guy

3 weeks ago

Hey AP, I think I owe you an apology. I'll send it at Discord.

1

AugustoPinochet73

3 weeks ago

Both sides have great arguments! But this will be decided by influence over UMA. THE TRUE DOESNT MATTER.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

just.some.guy

3 weeks ago

I knew that today I'd be making one of two posts: either "Whew" or "Rekt". I sure wish it could've been the other one.

5

Ukraine strike on Moscow by September 30?

just.some.guy

3 weeks ago

Is it just me or does that order book look weird to anyone else?

2

Nasrallah remains Hezbollah leader through Oct 31?

just.some.guy

3 weeks ago

Nothing ever happens. Oh, wait...

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

just.some.guy

3 weeks ago

The "nothing ever happens" brigade needs to start playing Israeli markets.

5

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

just.some.guy

3 weeks ago

He just told the UN they're a "contemptuous farce" to their faces. Say what you will, the man's got balls.

2

Ukraine strike on Moscow by September 30?

just.some.guy

3 weeks ago

I wish the world would stop saying those words. Bring it up often enough and one of these days Poly's going to respond with, "You're right, so we're reducing our market offerings by 90%."

0

Bidensupporter123

0 months ago

Say it with me: Nothing. Ever. Happens

Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?

just.some.guy

3 weeks ago

This is what attorneys call a statement against interest, but my reading is only the announcement's required.

2

SusanWarren,HR

3 weeks ago

Another poorly-worded market. Is the October 15 deadline for when the debate will occur, or for the announcement?

Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in September?

just.some.guy

3 weeks ago

Good thing that phrase hasn't caused any controversy in rules interpretation.

0

Swiftie89

3 weeks ago

"however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice"

Nasrallah remains Hezbollah leader through Oct 31?

just.some.guy

3 weeks ago

Am I nervous betting against Mossad? Absolutely.

1

Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in September?

just.some.guy

3 weeks ago

You gotta love a market whose 'primary resolution source' is Hezbollah. Polymarket forever!

3

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

just.some.guy

3 weeks ago

Thanks very much. That means a lot coming from you.

1

HaterzLoserz

3 weeks ago

https://i.chzbgr.com/full/9303007232/hDB0D547F/photo-caption-me-after-every-terror-attack-isit-time-for-the-crusade-yet-memegeneratornet

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

just.some.guy

3 weeks ago

Respect.

1

HaterzLoserz

3 weeks ago

https://i.chzbgr.com/full/9303007232/hDB0D547F/photo-caption-me-after-every-terror-attack-isit-time-for-the-crusade-yet-memegeneratornet

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

just.some.guy

3 weeks ago

You were right yesterday. I was an idiot.

0

Car

3 weeks ago

Peace always prevails.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

just.some.guy

3 weeks ago

I've traded this market like a patzer. One of the multiple aspects of my trading I need to work on is fear control. But, live and learn (and lose some money you shouldn't have), I suppose.

4

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

just.some.guy

3 weeks ago

Plus, paper hands

0

just.some.guy

3 weeks ago

The language has been pretty tough from the top of the IDF. I had to hedge my 30k No position on Sept. markets.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

just.some.guy

3 weeks ago

The language has been pretty tough from the top of the IDF. I had to hedge my 30k No position on Sept. markets.

0

Car

3 weeks ago

just.some.guy, might aswel just market buy YES, bro

Mozambique Presidential Election Winner

just.some.guy

3 weeks ago

Are Mozambique elections crooked?

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

just.some.guy

0 months ago

It doesn't matter for this market, but for the two Sept ending "Israel into Lebanon" mkts, one reason I like no is that on Tuesday, Netanyahu is (currently) scheduled to come to the USA, staying until the 28th. My guess is he'll be asking for permission / acquiescence to widen the war, possibly including a ground operation to the Lithani river in Lebanon, but I'd also guess nothing will start until at least he's back in Israel. Plus, Netanyahu's changing Defense Ministers right now and Hezbollah's initial response to the pager thing was proportional (so far, anyway), instead of overreaching and allowing Israel to say, "see, Hez started this war; it's Oct 7th all over again." Anyway, I owe you cosmic karma, so I figured I'd at least mention it.

2

HaterzLoserz

1 month ago

Full Disclosure: I watched the harris/trump debates on magic mushrooms and blew $60k on mention markets in one evening. Just so you all know who you are dealing with here.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

just.some.guy

0 months ago

Hi, H&L: Being new to market style betting, I’m trying to learn what I can from the brightest traders here. At the risk of sounding like a fanboy, it was your "stick and move" trading style that first got me thinking about the question of WHEN a price will go up instead of just IF a price would go up. My trading’s still a work in progress, but I just wanted to thank you for helping me see something I hadn’t before. You rock.

1

HaterzLoserz

1 month ago

Full Disclosure: I watched the harris/trump debates on magic mushrooms and blew $60k on mention markets in one evening. Just so you all know who you are dealing with here.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

I like your style! (He said, buzzing from the heroic amount of Adderall he's taken to get through football this weekend).

1

HaterzLoserz

1 month ago

Full Disclosure: I watched the harris/trump debates on magic mushrooms and blew $60k on mention markets in one evening. Just so you all know who you are dealing with here.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

Most you-know-whats cover more than one device. If yours does, you could trade f/ your phone.

1

MrKangaroo

1 month ago

i agree, great value, i can't sell because my computers not working but if it was i'd buy a ton of yes

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

Wuss. Kidding, I'm totally kidding. It's getting pretty hairy up there.

1

XiJinPing

1 month ago

sold 90% of my NO, they are escalating way too much, this is very scary

Sri Lanka Presidential Election Winner

just.some.guy

1 month ago

Looks like it's greenlit. See ya there

2

AugustoPinochet73

1 month ago

Fellow third world election bettors. I proposed on Polymarket "market-submissions" discord channel the Mozambique presidential elections. If anyone can green check it / thumbs up it will be helpfull.

Will Trump visit Springfield in September?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

Amen, brother. You'd think wealth would mellow a guy....

0

Car

1 month ago

I love taking money from people who believe in rumors

Polymarket Parlay: NFL Week 3

just.some.guy

1 month ago

thanks, poly. these are fun.

4

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

I have little confidence in UMA, so this doesn't matter, but my reading was that for Yes to win, the rule writers meant to require the Israelis not just to cross the border (say on a raid or something), but to cross the border, take some real estate, then stay there and defend it (I dk: dig in, establish a defensive perimeter, basically turn and fight on the defensive). Anyway, that's my two cents on the intention of the rules. Unfortunately, UMA doesn't care what the rules intend; or rather, sometimes they do and sometimes they don't and good luck knowing which kind of market you're currently trading in.

1

FamilyCapital

1 month ago

English is my 3rd language, can someone explain me, how we & UMA gonna know their intention of military offensive?

What will Trump say during North Carolina rally?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

lolz

0

rozi

1 month ago

Much comradeship, such plan. But wow, no comrades. So lonely. Many disappoint, such betray.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

thanks, dude. i def owe you one now and i'm a person who doesn't forget a favor. i'm not sure if you're a discord person but if so, friend me there. thks again

1

XiJinPing

1 month ago

September is so free -- "U.S. officials stressed that they haven’t yet seen any indicators such as calling up reserves to indicate an imminent invasion. Even once a decision is made, it could take weeks before Israeli forces are in position to launch a major offensive."

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

howdy, xi. good find, could you link me to the source? thanks

1

XiJinPing

1 month ago

September is so free -- "U.S. officials stressed that they haven’t yet seen any indicators such as calling up reserves to indicate an imminent invasion. Even once a decision is made, it could take weeks before Israeli forces are in position to launch a major offensive."

Hezbollah enters Israel in September?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

Dare we describe it as...foreseeable?

2

Foreseeable.

1 month ago

And so it begins: https://x.com/IDF/status/1836769873042538964

Will Mark Robinson drop out in September?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

Good post, thanks.

0

NoNoiseKnifeOnly

1 month ago

https://twitter.com/JuddLegum/status/1836923190016114987 NCGOP is sticking with Robinson.

What will Kamala say during Wisconsin rally?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

The Ukrainians droned a target west of Moscow tonight, so I'm wondering if the prices of no side 'Ukrainians drone Moscow' and/or 'kinetic hit on Kerch bridge' might become more affordable (with only 12 days till mkts close). Idk, just a thought.

1

rozi

1 month ago

Oh, and the same thing with the audience happened in Georgia in August, and she also referred to the 'ceasefire' but did not mention 'Palestine'. Funnily enough, in that sense, betting 'Yes' on 'ceasefire' is largely a bet on the chances of audience's interference, which is around 25% ;)

What will Kamala say during Wisconsin rally?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

Damn, that is some seriously great intel; thank you, my friend. After this I definitely owe you, so if you need to know anything about anything I might know, I'm happy to share. Yeah, dude, let's be allies. I don't really know anybody at poly and it'd be nice to!

1

rozi

1 month ago

Oh, and the same thing with the audience happened in Georgia in August, and she also referred to the 'ceasefire' but did not mention 'Palestine'. Funnily enough, in that sense, betting 'Yes' on 'ceasefire' is largely a bet on the chances of audience's interference, which is around 25% ;)

U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by September 30?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

"A guy comes up to me -- a big guy, tears in his eyes -- and he says, "Sir, Sir, how are you so great at evacuating embassies?"

7

AugustoPinochet73

1 month ago

THE U.S. IS NUMBER ONE! NO QUESTION ABOUT IT. When it comes to evacuating embassies, WE DO IT FASTER THAN ANYONE. Gold medal performance, folks! Other countries can’t keep up, they’re SLOW, they’re WEAK. We get our people out QUICK, we’re the BEST at it—believe me! Nobody does it like the United States. We lead, others follow. AMERICA FIRST!

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

They hit them again. Holy fuck, Mossad is good.

1

What will Kamala say during Wisconsin rally?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

Hey rozi, I was hoping we'd get a chance to meet. You're a sharp player; I've noticed us on the same side of a number of markets lately. Heh, and I appreciate the advice -- I've put in a sell order. Anyway, good to meet you and I hope to see you around some more. Good luck, my new friend!

0

rozi

1 month ago

If you sell your Palestine shares, you'll increase your chances of not sucking at it this time 😉

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

I think Gallant is toast. Actuallly, they should make a market on that.

2

BennyS

1 month ago

Gallant will stay on. If not, we can expect a campaign in South Lebanon, but Gallant will stay on anyway.

Sri Lanka Presidential Election Winner

just.some.guy

1 month ago

Lolz. You and I seem to be walking in the same circles tonight. FWIW, I just saw a BBC report that also suggested Dissanayake is the front runner, but I can't find any actual polling. Which is fine, because when my favorite Chilean fascist owns shares in a Marxist backed by an astrologist, there's only one thing I can say -- I'm in!

1

AugustoPinochet73

1 month ago

Guys Dissanayake is basically free money. My source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4OnWK2d5icE&ab_channel=KTAstro

Will Tua Tagovailoa retire by September 30?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

I'll like you more

1

yourrapist1776

1 month ago

if i stick my wiener into a jar of peanut butter, will you guys still like me?

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

Anytime, my friend, anytime.

2

XiJinPing

1 month ago

oh i see, thanks for your reply

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

Scottilicious bought me out: scottilicious bought 26,936 No at 91.0¢ ($24,512) 10d ago

1

XiJinPing

1 month ago

i actually respect your opinion, why do you think Yes? the pager activation wasnt planned, they were forced to do it bc it got discovered.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

I don't; I'm here to sell. I switched sides from no (i owned 27k shares of no 2 weeks ago) to yes when the agitation for a ground war in the north started. Now I'm taking profits and I'd guess I'll be back on your side soon.

2

XiJinPing

1 month ago

i actually respect your opinion, why do you think Yes? the pager activation wasnt planned, they were forced to do it bc it got discovered.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

This is the most active I've ever seen an Israeli market's comments section. Good work; it's always nice to hear other folks' points of view.

2

Hezbollah enters Israel in September?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

hmm, seems like i've arrived late to the new bunch of Israeli markets.

0

Israel claims responsibility for Hezbollah pager attack?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

I think you're thinking of the Hezbollah commander they offed in southern Beirut. Israel did take responsibility for that.

0

Amok

1 month ago

They did with that one Iran strike.

Will Trump do a podcast with Hawk Tuah Girl?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

Heh, fun market

0

What will Kamala say during Wisconsin rally?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

It's time I just admitted this: I suck at mention markets.

0

Will Trump visit Springfield in September?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

Last time I saw a post of yours, your tagline was "Domah fan." Domah replied to that post calling you a clown. I'm glad to see you've changed that tagline.

3

Car

1 month ago

I love taking money from people who believe in rumors

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

Good post, thanks

0

sd2333

1 month ago

https://x.com/BarakRavid/status/1835827562657792509 Axios reporter just now

Another Trump x Musk space before October?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

Why didn't we lose this bet?

0

CompulsiveGambler

1 month ago

Cannot believe some lucky bastard got filled for NO at 5c and i've been holding these 85c No all week like a chump

Maduro out in 2024?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

heh, heh, heh. solid point.

2

AugustoPinochet73

2 months ago

In Venezuela there are a lot of blackouts because Socialism. Because that JustScam could claim Maduro technically lost power

Maduro out in 2024?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

A market on whether or not the CIA was involved would be fun. Too bad there's no way to decide it except through UMA's corrupt hands. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/czxgl2zjgzzo

1

Will Trump visit Aurora in September?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

Susan after Dark seems way more fun than Susan, Head of HR.

3

SusanWarren,HR

1 month ago

I had the best sex of my life in Colorado

Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

Heh, solid screen name / av combo.

2

BuckMySalls

1 month ago

It's unlikely to be Fox but there is a good chance this trades in the 40s at some point based on rumors alone

Who will gain more in polls after the debate?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

That wasn't a post debate poll, but I suspect you knew that.

2

sdiff123

1 month ago

New Economist poll conducted post debate: Trump 45%, Harris 45%. A 2 point swing towards Trump.

# of debates between Trump and Harris?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

You might be interested in this market, as well: https://polymarket.com/event/fox-news-hosts-debate-between-trump-harris/fox-news-hosts-debate-between-trump-harris?tid=1726189109272

0

Bettensor

1 month ago

lmao you fool

Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

Not to mention the fact the entire right is screaming "rigged debate!" Obviously, the Harris campaign would be insanely worried that Fox News would rig a debate back, in the name of "fairness".

2

rozi

1 month ago

I personally think she has a lot to gain from calling him a coward for not wanting to do a debate at all, and if he says 'only Fox', laughing at him that he only feels safe with his cronies. And she has a lot to lose by going to Fox, and having the entire setup against her, including unfavorable questions, etc. I don't see it, really. Anyway, we will know within a month :)

Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

Trump: "There will not be another debate." This market: Eh, Trump says a lot of stuff.

8

Ukraine strike on Moscow by September 30?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

@AugustsoPinochet73, Amen on the JustScam point. I remember you from the Maduro boards. If memory serves, we got our asses kicked together there. Oh well, at least our misery had company. Good luck to you in the future, my friend!

3

Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

If I were arguing the yes side, I'd just quote Trump from this morning: "Are we going to do a rematch? I just don't know. I'd do NBC and I'd do Fox, too."

4

Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

Solid point. Although in practice for this market, agreement between the parties and announcement by Fox would probably all happen within hours.

0

Shayku

1 month ago

And by the way, the wording on the 'number of debates' market is better, and you should adopt standard wording to minimize confusion. Like game rules, or text on Magic cards. Standard vocabulary, standard syntax, etc.

Ukraine strike on Moscow by September 30?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

Not to mention JustKen's position (Domah/JustKam/Domer). I, for one, would never, ever take him on at UMA. He's the guy who orchestrated the UMA vote "confirming" Gonzalez won the Venezuela election over Maduro. At least 5 other prediction markets / sportsbooks ran lines on that election; all of them closed with Maduro as the winner. Directly or indirectly or through persuasion or whatever, the dude runs that place.

6

Lit1211

1 month ago

Time to buy No again? Google the Moscow municipality boundaries pls

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

With the main market basically 50/50 the opportunities for manipulation and counter manipulation during the 4 hour window are mind boggling. Will be wild!

0

Cops who arrested Tyreek Hill fired?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

Cops have great unions.

2

Ukraine strike on Moscow by September 30?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

....she said, knowing I'd be the one putting up the $750. It's just so EASY to risk someone else's money.

0

tsybka

1 month ago

go ahead and propose result.

How many viewers will the debate get?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

Is that the whisper number? Nuts, I bet UN 75M across multiple sportsbooks.

0

CookedAlligator

1 month ago

this might actually hit 75M +

How many viewers will the debate get?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

For super bowls the Nielsen numbers don't come out until Monday, so tomorrow(?)

0

J.D.K

1 month ago

When will this market be resolved?

Who will gain more in polls after the debate?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

Is that still your view?

0

sdiff123

1 month ago

This market has little to do with the debate

What will Kamala and Trump both say at the debate?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

Bold Prediction: "tip" cashes yes after Trump says -- as I used to in high school -- "just the tip".

1

Ukraine strike on Moscow by September 30?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

I see we both joined Poly in June. Beyond that it's hard to find any other similarities between our accounts.

0

tsybka

1 month ago

🤡

Ukraine strike on Moscow by September 30?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

Fellow No holders, I've just finished some map work and it looks like we dodged a bullet tonight, but we'll still probably have to fight for it. I'm happy to put up our side's $750 to take this to UMA, so if anyone sees a Proposal go up, please notify me immediately by replying to this message. Thanks, guys; team effort, and all that.

2

Ukraine strike on Moscow by September 30?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

I've now had time to do some map work and you're right: that's not Moscow. I'm happy to put up our side's $750 to take this to UMA, so if someone proposes please let me know right away. Thanks, my friend!

1

Lit1211

1 month ago

All targets were outside Moscow

Ukraine strike on Moscow by September 30?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

Crap, if that reporting's correct and the Ukrainians killed a 9 year old kid, Russia's incentives reverse and instead of covering it up, they'll use RT and whoever to spread the story as widely as possible. Bonus bad news for me: the closer to civilian, downtown Moscow they can make it sound, the better the propaganda value for them.

0

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

Watch this to see the moment the drone hit the apartment building in moscow. https://x.com/ajit4g/status/1833335785010991155. up 2/3rd on the screen coming from left to right.

Who is asked the first debate question?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

PS: I see since then he's deleted all the posts that were part of the scam. So yeah, he's a scumbag.

0

betless

1 month ago

which users are scammers?

Who is asked the first debate question?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

XiJinPeng is notorious for them. I found that out the hard way last week in this very market. He ran a pretty sophisticated scam between his acct and an alt he runs called JCooper. I won't bore you w/ the details, but I'm ashamed to admit I fell for it and it cost me about $70. Afterwards, I asked around about him and learned that scams are pretty much all he does under a bunch of accts.

1

betless

1 month ago

which users are scammers?

Ukraine strike on Moscow by September 30?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

Feels like this mkt might be on it's way to the tender care of UMA and, hey, who doesn't love that transparent, incorruptible and eminently fair organization?

0

Ukraine strike on Moscow by September 30?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

ah, thks

0

tsybka

1 month ago

Domer: "if i have less than 10k shares i am not even really making a bet, just having fun"

Ukraine strike on Moscow by September 30?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

No idea if it's true, but the Mayor of Moscow says the drone launched towards Moscow was shot down en route. Fog of war: https://kelo.com/2024/09/09/russia-destroys-ukraine-launched-drone-flying-towards-moscow-mayor-says/

1

Ukraine strike on Moscow by September 30?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

For fuck sake. I'll tell ya one thing: count me out for Oct market

1

Crock95

1 month ago

You're always right on time, lol!

Who is asked the first debate question?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

Tails never fails

1

DonaldinhoTrumpito

1 month ago

Thanks ! Yeah I got a good feeling about this one... and if not, we can still win the coin toss :D

Who is asked the first debate question?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

As a Kamala holder, I'm reassured to see Donaldihno Trumpito on our side. First, cuz it's a great screen name but also, dude's one of the brightest traders at Poly.

1

Who is asked the first debate question?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

Kamala holders have an alternative theory of the case to Trump holders' view that this will be determined by coin flip tomorrow. Tbh, I don't know for sure we're right, but I also couldn't find any absolute proof that we're wrong. Weird little market.

0

n/a

1 month ago

Why Kamala price’s so high. I D’ont understand

Ukraine strike on Moscow by September 30?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

My guess is a lot of JustKam's positions are either decoys or shares 'accidentally' bought when seeking Rewards. Outside of that account's biggest positions I wouldn't trust anything I see.

0

LyinCamela

1 month ago

JustKam has entered the chat (check Holders)

Israel parliament dissolves in 2024?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

Habit.

0

no.nickname

1 month ago

So why did you buy more?

Israel parliament dissolves in 2024?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

I've been sitting around this poker table for a while now, but I can't spot the sucker.

1

'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' Opening Weekend Box Office

just.some.guy

1 month ago

I try to keep an eye on Poly's brightest minds to learn what I can and you, Sir, made this market your bitch. I'm somewhere between impressed and amazed.

1

aenews2

1 month ago

because the film was a big success

Ukraine strike on Moscow by September 30?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

The yes win in the August market ate me for lunch, but what the hell, I'm back for more.

0

Polymarket Parlay - NFL Week 1

just.some.guy

1 month ago

At a minimum, I'll swing by between each leg; maybe we can help add to the volume numbers a bit. Win, lose or draw, this is a fun, well written parlay.

3

Polymarket Parlay - NFL Week 1

just.some.guy

1 month ago

Amen

1

yourrapist1776

1 month ago

Poly, we need a lot more of these this nfl season

Will Harris publicly support tax on unrealized gains?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

I like your screen name.

0

Justsomeguy

1 month ago

This one is a lock. Kamala has literally voiced support for a bill that taxes unrealized gains

Will Trump debate Kamala on Sept 10?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

I like pronouncing his last name: M-nuch-in

0

Steven-Mnuchin

1 month ago

New: Kamala Harris campaign has just accepted in a letter to ABC News the rules of next week's debate against Donald trump, including mics being muted when it's not a candidate's turn to speak, per person familiar with debate negotiations. https://x.com/mj_lee/status/1831439574134063171?s=46&t=T4NQlMZZsyqNZOX--BeTkw

Who is asked the first debate question?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

I've lived my entire life by a single axiom: Tails never fails.

3

NFL Kickoff: Chiefs vs. Ravens

just.some.guy

1 month ago

They've got everyone for 1st TD, if int: https://polymarket.com/event/chiefs-vs-ravens-first-td-scorer?tid=1725564911045

0

NorTrader

1 month ago

More TD scorers?

NFL Kickoff: Chiefs vs. Ravens

just.some.guy

1 month ago

Thanks for adding some props. Maybe some RB or WR ov/un's next? Thanks, you guys rock.

1

Will Harris publicly support tax on unrealized gains?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

Every time I promise myself, "I'm going to stop making stupid mistakes....."

0

Netanyahu out by October 31?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

I'm not a big fan of Netanyahu, but I admit he's a great politician.

1

Trump sentenced to prison in NY case before election?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

Unfortunately, the answer is No. Disputes over rules happen all the time and they're decided by a very non impartial organization called the UMA. Best place to get more info is Poly's Discord channel; there you'll get replies some of which might even be right.

0

Champ

1 month ago

I'm new here. Is there a way to ask the resolvers a clarification question about what counts as a prison sentence?

Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

You're right, the first debate of 2020 was hosted by Chris Wallace, but on Fox network, not Fox News; and since then the eminently fair Chris Wallace has left for CNN. Also, you mention Fox News has held many primary debates of both parties. I don't know of a single democratic primary debate Fox News has hosted; can you link me? Thanks

3

Shayku

1 month ago

If Kamala does well, she may still need to secure some republican voters and will have built the confidence to show up on Fox. If she doesn't do so well, she'll need another chance, and Trump will have some leeway to impose the conditions he wants.

Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

And you expect she'd choose Fox News? Would Trump ever do a debate hosted by MSNBC? Ever wonder why that is?

1

0xNabs

1 month ago

Getting ready for the bottom price on this one on the 4th and load up - chances are she will need more debates after her polls start tanking…!

What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

you're sure? the pricing suggests 5

0

DAT

1 month ago

still 4 aliens

What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

nice work. also, great screen name

0

teddykgb

1 month ago

holy moly

What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

"Acclimented"

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon before September?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

Why do some posters attack holders of the other side? You'd change positions if you thought the percentages had changed, right? Plus, it's just an unkind, uncool thing to do.

2

Diegley

1 month ago

You fearmongering retards should have listened

Israel x Hamas ceasefire before September?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

Absolutely, yes. I'm very bad at Polymarket.

0

Porcoddio

1 month ago

Of course a humanitarian pause would not count. It's basically over. People who bought YES are delusional, lol.

What will Kamala say during CNN interview?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

one error: joyful was actually 894 times. easy mistake to make

0

LMNOP

1 month ago

UPDATED to include "Joy". Here is a summary of her word counts from her DNC acceptance speech. She spoke for 35 minutes. Abortion 4; Artificial Intelligence 1; Beyonce 0; Border 7; Ceasefire 1; Crypto/Bitcoin 0; DEI 0; Democracy 2; Inflation 0; JD Vance 0; Joy 849; Oakland 1; Palestine/Palestinian 1; Project 2025 1; Prosecutor 3; San Francisco 0; Tips 0; Wall 0; Weird 0; Someone please feel free to check my homework, probably a small mistake there or two.

Will Biden's 538 approval reach 40% in August?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

he said, tempting fate...

1

0xb27d8B9Ef5935a763aFdE9737204934888e5Fc9c-1720902678412

1 month ago

Just hit 39.9, looking like Yes is in the bag.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before September?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

The stuff you're posting about happens pretty much every day.

0

MD80PFF

1 month ago

Netanyahu to convene security cabinet shortly The Israeli prime minister will convene his security cabinet at 7:00am local time (04:00GMT), according to Israeli media. The Times of Israel reported that Netanyahu and Gallant were earlier at the Israeli military’s headquarters in Tel Aviv “managing the incident” in the north.

Will Nate Silver correctly call the Presidential Election?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

He can't make a bad call. The model itself produces the pick and that's a stats based, automated system.

0

Fatboyslim

2 months ago

What's stopping Nate buying No, and making a bad call?

Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

Even if the Harris campaign thought Brett Baier and Martha MacCallum could be fair moderators -- which they don't -- they'd still never accept a debate on Fox due to the risk there'd be 10 questions on immigration/border and zero on abortion.

1

tomatreides

1 month ago

Decent chance he uses the "backing out on ABC" as leverage to get a FOX debate.

Israel x Hamas ceasefire before September?

just.some.guy

1 month ago

i'm cooked.

4

Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?

just.some.guy

2 months ago

probably nbc on sept 25th.

0

rozi

2 months ago

It ain't happening, now or by the deadline on Oct 15. They will likely make a second debate on CNN/CNBC/etc.

Will RFK Jr. drop out before September?

just.some.guy

2 months ago

I traded this market like a total dipshit. I'm firing myself and walking away.

0

What will RFK Jr. say during Friday address?

just.some.guy

2 months ago

his voice, his grating voice

2

What will RFK Jr. say during Friday address?

just.some.guy

2 months ago

RFK announced his Trump endorsement in a PA court filing: https://edition.cnn.com/2024/08/23/politics/rfk-jr-endorses-trump/index.html

1

What will RFK Jr. say during Friday address?

just.some.guy

2 months ago

2pm eastern time

2

rugbet

2 months ago

wen he speak

What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?

just.some.guy

2 months ago

joyful's not a compound word. joy-maker would be.

0

ejgejg

2 months ago

She said “joyful”, which is literally a compound word and counts per the rules. How is that not 99% already lol

Will RFK Jr. drop out before September?

just.some.guy

2 months ago

heh, solid screen name / tagline.

1

MyLossIsYourGain

2 months ago

Trump is desperate to have even 1 percentage of edge against Kamala, even if the quid pro quo deal looks bad for the optics.

Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by Aug 31?

just.some.guy

2 months ago

Rewards are currently 120.

2

0x34a42279AD

2 months ago

The depth in this market has increased like crazy over the past 10hr. Why is that? It increased by about a factor of 50 or so!

Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by Aug 31?

just.some.guy

2 months ago

Sweet, nice to have an mpox researcher on our side. Do you like no in the Sept 30 market as well?

1

0x34a42279AD

2 months ago

I'm actually studying mpox. Like for real, I'm a scientist. First time I can make money simply by what I know about a disease.

Israel military action against Iran by end of 2024?

just.some.guy

2 months ago

So this market's being decided through an obscure, non-transparent voting system that insiders understand, but the rest of us don't. Annoying, that.

2

Israel military action against Iran by end of 2024?

just.some.guy

2 months ago

thanks

0

aenews2

2 months ago

They didn't vote for No. They voted that it was too early to close, punting decision to future.

Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by Aug 31?

just.some.guy

2 months ago

Clades and "sexual networks", I'm learning a lot from this market.

7

Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by Aug 31?

just.some.guy

2 months ago

Front loaded, so even more per day for the next week or so.

0

MichaelBurryd

2 months ago

Fair decay value is 3-4% a day from here. That's 3-4 pennies a day! Lays where are them orders at?

Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by Aug 31?

just.some.guy

2 months ago

heh, solid thought

0

XiJinPing

2 months ago

Can someone sacrafice themselves? Go to Africa, have gay sex, come back, get tested, make $$$$$.

Israel military action against Iran by end of 2024?

just.some.guy

2 months ago

I thought the Maduro vote was BS, but since this mkt could also get closed using that as precedent, I think I'm gonna bail.

0

just.some.guy

2 months ago

Heck, we don't even know for certain what the "military action" was: a bomb, an airstrike as Iran believes, a drone attack or some other, as yet unknown method. Without knowing for sure what the military action was, how can UMA voters even begin to analyze whether it qualifies as a "military action" under the rules? But since the same reasoning UMA used in the Maduro election dispute could also be used here, namely that main source for determining the market is silent, a "consensus of credible reporting" can be substituted.

Israel military action against Iran by end of 2024?

just.some.guy

2 months ago

Heck, we don't even know for certain what the "military action" was: a bomb, an airstrike as Iran believes, a drone attack or some other, as yet unknown method. Without knowing for sure what the military action was, how can UMA voters even begin to analyze whether it qualifies as a "military action" under the rules? But since the same reasoning UMA used in the Maduro election dispute could also be used here, namely that main source for determining the market is silent, a "consensus of credible reporting" can be substituted.

0

crow

2 months ago

There is no conclusive proof that the killing of Haniyeh was done by Israel. Iran has blamed Israel but Israel has denied the allegations and no one has provided any conclusive evidence to support this allegation

Israel military action against Iran by end of 2024?

just.some.guy

2 months ago

It was, but that was the first proposal. I think UMA voted against closing the mkt by about 70-30. I guess since a closure's been proposed again there'll be another vote? Since nothing's changed re: Haniyeh since the first vote, why would this vote come out differently? Thanks for any info; I'm new and this is my first disputed mkt

0

CouchWhale

2 months ago

I think it was proposed after the Ismail Haniyeh assassination.

Israel military action against Iran by end of 2024?

just.some.guy

2 months ago

By 'nothing ever happens', do you mean the disputes never work and the markets generally close? And if so, shouldn't you and I be dumping all our no shares? Thanks

1

dreamer

2 months ago

Final review: Nothing ever happens

Israel military action against Iran by end of 2024?

just.some.guy

2 months ago

I'm new; could some kind soul help me out on how disputes work? Cuz I thought 'UMA' already voted on whether Haniyeh met the criteria to close the mkt and they voted for no like 70-30, or something. Since nothing's changed since the first vote, how could the second vote go the other way? I mean, it's the same voters, isn't it? Thanks for any info.

1

Iran military response by Friday?

just.some.guy

2 months ago

heh, solid post. is your screen name a phone number? i ask because i'm originally from that area code.

0

7153649820

2 months ago

As a centrist, I think all sides are good and totally justified in their actions. I just hope all sides have fun doing whatever they are going to do.

Maduro out in 2024?

just.some.guy

2 months ago

Domah, apparently.

1

TimeQuestion

2 months ago

Who defines who is President of Venezuela?

Fantasy Football: Top QB 2024

just.some.guy

2 months ago

There's an Other category

0

0x31662eeD092861Bc5B133c707f4564010E2937A9-1723517015878

2 months ago

Penix?

Israel military action against Iran by end of 2024?

just.some.guy

2 months ago

Or was it an airstrike? Who knows. One thing's for sure: we can't discuss whether a qualifying "military action" as defined in the Rules has taken place until we know what that action was.

3

Justifax

2 months ago

It wasn't an air strike, though quite a few outlets reported that.

Israel military action against Iran by end of 2024?

just.some.guy

2 months ago

Only 3 hours old: A Hamas official in Iran refutes reports that the explosion that killed the Palestinian terror group leader Ismail Haniyeh this week was set off by a bomb in his room at a Tehran guesthouse, according to an Arab media report. A report in the London-based news outlet Al-Araby Al-Jadeed quotes Khaled Qaddoumi as saying it was “clear from the appearance of the place after the attack and what happened to it, and from the body of the martyr leader Ismail Haniyeh, that the targeting was carried out by an airborne projectile, whether it was a missile or a shell.”

1

Israel military action against Iran by end of 2024?

just.some.guy

2 months ago

Nobody even knows what happened, much less who did it:

1

Maduro out before September?

just.some.guy

2 months ago

Pinochet would never let that happen. Today's dictators are weak

0

Justifax

2 months ago

That should resolve as NO and is a new market.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before September?

just.some.guy

2 months ago

Haniyeh’s assassination, without consultation or warning to the Americans, shows the modern dynamic in American-Israeli relations: the tail wags the dog.

2

Will Biden finish his term?

just.some.guy

3 months ago

just out of curiosity, how?

0

Car

3 months ago

Biden can also die without kamala becoming the president

Will Biden finish his term?

just.some.guy

3 months ago

It sounds like there's 4 or 5 guys in the same boat. If anybody solves it, post and let the others know how.

0

TestMeNow

3 months ago

I bought no, but I cant sell it, and it doesnt show in portfolio and my balance went down lol

Will Biden finish his term?

just.some.guy

3 months ago

good luck w/ the deposit. just a friendly head's up: you can also play the Biden health angle in the DNC speech market. It's a little more expensive, but you'd get paid in a month instead of in 6. If interested: https://polymarket.com/event/will-biden-speak-at-the-dnc?tid=1721721988867

0

infinitiphantom

3 months ago

Why is my USDC deposit not hitting…. I did two transfers here both from exchange one after the other and second one hit and first one didn’t… but contract says successful. Anyone ever have this issue? Trying to lock in this bet….

Will Biden finish his term?

just.some.guy

3 months ago

they've got a live chat on the deposit page; i'd start there.

0

infinitiphantom

3 months ago

Why is my USDC deposit not hitting…. I did two transfers here both from exchange one after the other and second one hit and first one didn’t… but contract says successful. Anyone ever have this issue? Trying to lock in this bet….

Will Biden finish his term?

just.some.guy

3 months ago

i think that's true, but would he when isolating from covid?

1

KevinW23

3 months ago

Unconfirmed, but supposedly Biden's has no meetings this week which would be very odd: https://x.com/RealMattCouch/status/1815607823608295824

Will Biden finish his term?

just.some.guy

3 months ago

i assume it's health, but it doesn't make sense the biden speaks at the DNC market's not crashing too.

0

just.some.guy

3 months ago

this, i guess? https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/world/where-is-joe-biden-us-president-has-not-been-seen-publicly-since-drop-out-announcement/ar-BB1qqF7F?ocid=BingNewsSerp&cvid=5e0ab15b85634a8d8ed5ba1b94046e72&ei=16

Will Biden finish his term?

just.some.guy

3 months ago

this, i guess? https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/world/where-is-joe-biden-us-president-has-not-been-seen-publicly-since-drop-out-announcement/ar-BB1qqF7F?ocid=BingNewsSerp&cvid=5e0ab15b85634a8d8ed5ba1b94046e72&ei=16

0

Apsalar

3 months ago

what the fuck is happening here

DNC open convention?

just.some.guy

3 months ago

yeah and i'm guessing the virtual roll call for biden = no will transfer into a virtual roll call for harris = no, too, but rules cucking is always on the board.

0

discsDontLie

3 months ago

"If a nominee is selected on the first ballot, this market will resolve to "No."" So even if there are multiple serious candidates running during the convention, if a candidate gets over 50% of the vote on the first ballot this market resolves to No??

When will Democratic Nominee be chosen?

just.some.guy

3 months ago

y, mike dewine. he's a great governor

0

n/a

3 months ago

The Gov there made a ruling to extend till August 31. He is Republican by the way

Democratic Nominee 2024

just.some.guy

3 months ago

FWIW, he was on CNN earlier tonight and said he wasn't running.

1

BadLuckChasing

3 months ago

Dean Philiips came in second after Biden in the Primary so choosing him would be the most democratic process. He was among the first to openly express concerns about Bidens age and declining health while Harris kept quiet about it and comes across as very insincere and is polling even worse than Biden. In elections white male candidates have generally appealed to a wider audience potentially helping secure swing states and crucial electoral votes. They could keep Kamala as Vice President. Also Dean Phillips has a reputation for working across party lines and could help bridge divides possibly even attracting voters who lean towards Trump. At 54 years old he offers a nice youthfull contrast to Biden.

Republican VP nominee?

just.some.guy

3 months ago

I don't post much, but I saw on Twitter that Domah made $430k on Vance. Respect. Render unto Ceasar, and all that.

1

Democratic Nominee 2024

just.some.guy

3 months ago

michelle obama. there's a fake vid of a CNN analyst calling her that.

1

buweeo

3 months ago

who tf is “Big Mike”

Democratic Nominee 2024

just.some.guy

3 months ago

Hi, I'm new. Does Domer = Domah = RevengeTour19B4? Thanks

2

41-17™askDomerWhatImean

3 months ago

14.3 million primary votes! 🥳🥳🥳 Joe Biden is the best to ever do it!