#615
Rank
50
Comments
25
Likes Received
114
Likes Given
Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?
MicR
1 month ago
I don't think you can take back Crimea without taking it back. So, you guys should at least try to take it back 🤔
0
n/a
1 month ago
As a ukrainian I lost a lot of friends in this war, this war must have a purpose, for those who died in this war Crimea Is Ours
Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?
MicR
1 month ago
Has anyone even actually seen North Koreans anywhere near the theatre of operations? The closest I've seen was Laotian troops training in the far east.
0
wsniha
1 month ago
Why send the North Korean army? Is Russia short of soldiers? No, the big battle is about to begin
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
MicR
2 months ago
My wife's son could really have used my Walz gainz. Why oh why did he have to admit to being pals with school shooters...
1
Balls2theWalz
2 months ago
Very cuck post
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
MicR
2 months ago
m8 that's not how it works at all. 1%/day = 1.01^365 = 37.78x = +3678%/year
2
CutWastefulGovernmentSpending
2 months ago
I don’t see any downside risk at this point. If there is a 1% return in 1 day, conservatively speaking that annualizes to a 365% return per year. Even Walz betters can make money back by taking the Vance position.
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
MicR
2 months ago
I'm going down with the ship, I'm not interested in salvaging $4.
0
bbman1214
2 months ago
is it even worth selling for pennies at this point or go down with the ship?
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
MicR
2 months ago
Walzbroz, it's been an honour... I thought I sucked at trading stocks but I'm even worse at betting. Back to the wage cage.
10
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
MicR
2 months ago
Wow how unsportsmanlike.
1
Balls2theWalz
2 months ago
All the retards who bet that Walz would win after saying on national television that he’s become friends with school shooters, please raise your hand.
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
MicR
2 months ago
The lower you bring it the more our bet is EV+ or whatever it's called.
2
donky
2 months ago
Astonishing that the odds go from Walz 70 to 30 pre and now 82 to 19 post for Vance and Walz people still talk trash. You guys are hilarious. Please by all means keep buying though Thank you!
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
MicR
2 months ago
WALZBROZ GIVE WALZ YOUR ENERGY AAAAAAAAAAAAAA BALZ TO THE WALZ
1
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
MicR
2 months ago
It's very simple, bigger number wins. If numbers are equal, 50-50 outcome. The margin is 0. If you don't like buying a coin flip for 26¢ then idk what to tell you.
1
TrumpoDumpo
2 months ago
The term "tie" in the rules is ambiguous, and should be interpreted to incorporate the margin of error, as statistical uncertainty makes it unreasonable to declare a winner based on a minor lead within that margin. Interpreting the rules this way aligns with fairness, the intent to determine the true winner, and common practices in polling and election standards.
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
MicR
2 months ago
I think the rules are meant to minimise the likelihood of a 50-50 outcome, so it's only a tie for us if the published numbers don't give either candidate a lead, no matter how small.
0
TrumpoDumpo
2 months ago
Someone please correct me if this is wrong: Let's say the Ipsos poll has a margin of error of 2% and shows that Vance has a 1% lead. A winner cannot be determined because the lead is within the margin of error. It's rare that it happens, but some might think there is a higher probably there than normal.
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
MicR
2 months ago
Walz won on abortion and school shootings (Vance's plan sounded bad on the latter), so it's a matter of what issues you prioritise.
0
schottchris
2 months ago
I recognize I may be a little jaded on politics: I don't understand how ANYBODY that watched or listened to that (I have now don both) would think Walz won. Maybe I have a blind spot...maybe.
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
MicR
2 months ago
YouGov poll says 42% thought Vance won and 41% thought Walz won. I might have gotten too cocky, but assuming a similar bias that makes the Ipsos one practically a tossup. If my side was above 50% here I'd sell my shares, but since the odds are too low for a tossup it's not worth selling.
1
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
MicR
2 months ago
You guys are too biased. The question isn't who YOU think won the debate. People will say Walz was better, because he was, even though Vance was more pleasant than expected. On abortion alone Walz scored while Vance seemed to have begrudgingly changed with stance.
8
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
MicR
3 months ago
You guys are biased, you're in the minority of people who has positive things to say about Vance (he has a 34.5% approval rating, compared to 40% for Walz). Much of the rest of the country thinks Walz is a great guy and Vance offends their sensibilities.
0
Erik999
3 months ago
This makes zero sense. Vance is one of the best debaters I've ever seen. He does all the sundsy shows every week. They're hiding walz for a reason.
Will Apple invest in OpenAI in 2024?
MicR
3 months ago
We did it, nothing ever happens!
1
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?
MicR
3 months ago
toplel, typical with such "news". Nothing ever happens.
0
bakayo33 - 9934
3 months ago
Fuck I caved. Won't ever do that again. https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/netanyahu-says-reports-of-imminent-ceasefire-are-false-denies-toning-down-lebanon-strikes/
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?
MicR
3 months ago
I'm slurping that
0
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
MicR
3 months ago
Thank you for your service 🫡
0
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
Big time credit to me for constantly warning the 25bp holders that they were making a bad bet. I tried!!!
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
MicR
3 months ago
I'll never recover from this. RIP my gambling problem.
5
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
MicR
3 months ago
It don't matter, none of this matters, very soon we'll be very much unrugged.
1
Ox8
3 months ago
25ers getting rugged
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
MicR
3 months ago
Having more faith in Fed futures that in the Fed's pattern of behaviour and signals is crazy.
1
Randomchooser
3 months ago
61% 50 bps ... facts matter
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
MicR
3 months ago
-25 bepis bros, we rise!
0
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
MicR
3 months ago
He's unironically an actual schizo
1
MaverickMoves
3 months ago
Zion chill man or make a youtube! I need data, stop making me sort through all that!
Will Apple remain largest company through Sep 30?
MicR
3 months ago
m8 you don't understand what this market is about, it's already over.
1
n/a
3 months ago
What if apple just stays ahead? Was that a necessary risk to take?
Will Apple remain largest company through Sep 30?
MicR
3 months ago
Just checking, do you understand that MSFT only needs to overtake AAPL at ANY point until the deadline? That means today, even for a minute, then it would be over.
0
MrKangaroo
3 months ago
pretty sure its positive ev if there's 10 trading days, 0.83% difference, and a $60b buyback just announced
Will Apple remain largest company through Sep 30?
MicR
3 months ago
It's already over in PM, and do you understand that MSFT only needs to lead at any time before the deadline?
0
MrKangaroo
3 months ago
to be fair, positive news for both companies and apple leads by ~1%, im holding to expiry but it should be closer to a 50/50
Will Apple remain largest company through Sep 30?
MicR
3 months ago
I've been shorting AAPL since May (amazing timing I know...), nothing to do with this tiny little bet, I just felt like MSFT would probably not overtake AAPL for no reason.
1
MrKangaroo
3 months ago
hedging polymarket with a short is crazy
Will Apple remain largest company through Sep 30?
MicR
3 months ago
I screwed up, I should probably dump my Yes while it's worth something. Good thing I'm also short AAPL.
1
Will Apple remain largest company through Sep 30?
MicR
3 months ago
YESBROS WE GOT TOO COCKY AAAAAAAAA
3
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
MicR
3 months ago
bepis
0
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
MicR
3 months ago
I'm on 25 bepis because some guy on Twitter who pretends to be a cat said it's 25 bepises for sure
1
Trump fires campaign manager?
MicR
3 months ago
Someone bought Yes at 35c and then a minute later at 60c, pretty bad deal on that second trade 😁
0
negativedrip
3 months ago
what happened
Trump fires campaign manager?
MicR
3 months ago
I think it's the order book getting too empty, until a few seconds ago you could buy Yes for 66c but No for 67c, 33c spread.
0
negativedrip
3 months ago
what happened
Will Apple invest in OpenAI in 2024?
MicR
3 months ago
I love it when someone takes a fat market order that clears out half of my side of the order book 😁
1
Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?
MicR
4 months ago
I'd be disappointed if we all got our money back but it should be the default thing to do when the wording of the contract turned out to be inadequate.
1
sosuke
4 months ago
"The real issue here is the wording of the Polymarket contract, which asked about a "withdrawal" instead of a suspension." yeah polymarket fucked up, cancel the market to 50-50
Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?
MicR
4 months ago
Yeah, you can justify spending $2 for 1% of a chance at getting back $1,000 (personally I'm betting on post-review shenanigans), but hardly the opposite, even if things go the Yes way why wait. But I get the feeling that Yes people like low yield low risk plays, I don't think they really appreciate that buying at 2c even for a 1% chance of winning 100c is a great bet if you use the Kelly criterion.
0
ButterMilkLoveNugget
4 months ago
This has been fun. People still buykng NO, I think they think therrs a chance (Thats why I spent 5 bucks). But thr people buying YES doesnt make any sense, its pennies.
Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?
MicR
4 months ago
Sell me your Yes at $99.8, I'm putting 4 (four) dollars to be your exit liquidity. No need to thank me.
1
Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?
MicR
4 months ago
Holding Yes at this point is as close to picking up pennies in front of a steamroller as you can get, mostly as it all comes down to an arbitrary decision. Yes holders don't believe that 1.92 birds in the hand are worth two in the bush.
1
Will RFK drop out before November?
MicR
4 months ago
Good points. Next time it should say "withdraw or suspend".
0
0x63325293geDetgu4g028d8hh9dDegjAsuneg44
4 months ago
I've reversed course; and basically it's due to the essence of the Johnnie Cochran comment. Did RFKJ drop out? Ask 10000 ppl on the street, they'll say yes. Ask a lawyer, he'll say it was suspended, not ended and how can he have left the race when he can still win it. For the purposes of Polymarket, what happened w RFKJ today is what ppl thought they were betting on so it seems like it should resolve Yes? I think so (now). But if he unsuspends his campaign, does everyone get a refund? (No) Ultimately, it would have been ideal to have more tightly worded Rules. If the "arbiter" were PolyMarket, I'm not sure how this would resolve and I'd be buying No. But as I have learnt in the last 30min, it's a bunch of random gamblers "arbiting" but it sounds more like another round of gambling your bonds, guessing how others will vote? So I sold my shs. Seems rigged to a degree? Seems like you could even hijack some resolutions? Anyway, TIL
Will RFK drop out before November?
MicR
4 months ago
Then realise your profits right now while you still can.
0
MyLossIsYourGain
4 months ago
I have no on this but this is ridiculous. RFK dropped out today. End of story.
Will RFK drop out before November?
MicR
4 months ago
Yeah I'm new to this but I don't trust that resolving would either go my way or be done in a timely manner. Besides when trading in general I've always been impatient to realise gains.
0
dayvisit
4 months ago
in at 5 out at 70. Good lesson you've learned with polymarket. Resolving doesn't always work like you think it will. Play the directionality and get that money while you can.
Will RFK drop out before November?
MicR
4 months ago
Thanks, I'm glad it worked out too. Congrats on your great entry timing btw.
0
DTZ
4 months ago
good to see you on the good side of things, made my 14x and didnt feel like staying along for the ride. See you around!
Will RFK drop out before November?
MicR
4 months ago
I'm out (in at 8¢, out at 47.9¢), thanks for making me double my portfolio on a fatfinger accident guys :)
0
Will RFK drop out before November?
MicR
4 months ago
This question isn't about suspending, it's about dropping out/withdrawing.
0
JonJonesMMA
4 months ago
He said he is suspending his candidacy...
Will RFK drop out before November?
MicR
4 months ago
Extremely based
0
sigh
4 months ago
fuck yall im rich
Will RFK drop out before November?
MicR
4 months ago
Thank you for praying for me!
0
Will RFK drop out before November?
MicR
4 months ago
Withdrawing from AZ and withdrawing from all states is two different things.
2
0xc82CDDbfD073be01AE8DF2968827aa82269B4c85-1717120400943
4 months ago
Why hasn't this resolved? He dropped, it's official
Will RFK drop out before November?
MicR
4 months ago
For me it's the same as always, mispriced odds, no reason to think there's a 96% chance he'd drop out, 96% is pretty certain. I usually close my positions long before the end. I'll probably close this one or most of it when perceptions change.
0
LMNOP
4 months ago
What's the basis for the No vote though?
Will RFK drop out before November?
MicR
4 months ago
I've fat fingered this garbage, instead of buying 184 shares worth $8 for a 4¢ average I got $184 worth of shares for a 8¢ average. Pray for me lads.
2