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DonaldinhoTrumpito
0x7523cafcee7bcf2db9a79d80e0d79b88a9a54c4c
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#147
Rank
35
Comments
29
Likes Received
140
Likes Given
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
DonaldinhoTrumpito
2 weeks ago
If you feel so strongly about it, shouldn't you bet like 500k on No? At this point the price is unlikely to influence voters anyway, so take your profit.
🤺JustClément
2 weeks ago
Last and final warning from good guy domer that despite the price, it is unlikely that P2 wins, and this price is absolutely bonkers crazy
Will there be another debate?
DonaldinhoTrumpito
2 weeks ago
I'm sorry, the debate ship sailed when Vance gave an honorable performance. Now there's no incentive for Trump to accept another one.
yungretard
2 weeks ago
ngl boys, not very comforting that a) im the second largest yes holder b) #1 yes holder is a retard who’s red lifetime pnl b) #3 is also a retard with red lifetime pnl. c) #4 is a retard who is currently underwater on a bet about tether going underwater d) #5 is 50-pence which would be good except he’s made gorrilions off this site and will be fine if this goes to 0. Not gonna dump on u tho, bc I can afford to lose this and it’s the honorable thing to do.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
DonaldinhoTrumpito
2 weeks ago
Unless no consensus is reached!
🤺JustClément
2 weeks ago
The calm before the storm. Our time in this market is drawing to a close, and I am glad that everyone has remained cordial and friends.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
DonaldinhoTrumpito
2 weeks ago
The consistency argument is all you guys have, and it’s made in such bad faith. Despite having 160k Yes shares, I advocated for « too early » last time because I literally believed it was too early to judge the intent of Israel. Now the intent is clear. There is no contradiction voting P4 and then P2. There is however contradiction voting P2 November and P1 September if you can’t come up with a credible invasion date.
AvocadoLu
2 weeks ago
If UMA is not biased, it should be consistent with its previous P4 result. If it’s rigged, the main additional yes buyer is Chad, who obviously didn’t have enough votes in UMA
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
DonaldinhoTrumpito
2 weeks ago
So let’s assume Yes wins in the November market, as it’s overwhelmingly doing it right now (currently 91/9). It means there is indeed an invasion with intent of control. Is there any No September defender who can tell us when this invasion started in their view?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
DonaldinhoTrumpito
2 weeks ago
For what it's worth, chatGPT is on yes side now : https://x.com/Ragnarok_1er/status/1842063415692443663
What will Kamala say during Nevada speech?
DonaldinhoTrumpito
3 weeks ago
2 away from the No Grand Slam, too bad :(
What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?
DonaldinhoTrumpito
0 months ago
I added you ;)
Eridpnc
0 months ago
You made me $850 so I'm feeling very genorous
What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?
DonaldinhoTrumpito
0 months ago
How will you know I'm the real Trumpito and not some hobo who wants a free $100?
Eridpnc
0 months ago
Trumpito I'll tip you $100 if you add me on discord
What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?
DonaldinhoTrumpito
0 months ago
That's just wrong. You counted billions as well and got lucky.
rozi
0 months ago
I stopped counting Million at 12x and that was 2/3 into the speech.
What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?
DonaldinhoTrumpito
0 months ago
You're welcome :)
Eridpnc
0 months ago
What a masterclass by trumpito. I got 800 at 8c and held until 75c thanks to this expert counter
What will Kamala say during Greensboro rally?
DonaldinhoTrumpito
1 month ago
So you knew she would repeat, and yet the only bet you made was on a word she didn't say the 1st time. Makes sense.
MoveForward
1 month ago
Knew tha t dumb bitch would repeat herself like a printer, 0 communication, too rallies exact same thing, what a clown as a candidate
What will Trump say at the debate?
DonaldinhoTrumpito
1 month ago
Ok since nobody will sell me anymore Maga at 99%, I'll tell you the answer : there's a "maga hat" around 15:00 and two "make america great again" around 30:00, which is 3 total mentions.
Trump and Harris shake hands at first debate?
DonaldinhoTrumpito
1 month ago
Well played haha, but that was really awkward lmao. Trump stayed at his podium but she reached so far to get it haha
HaterzLoserz
1 month ago
Its not about emotions of either side, its about what their strategy team thinks is the best approach/optics. As mentioned before, things like Trump size profile being larger than Kamala and other seemingly random things weigh in favor of Trump wanting to shake hands, and Kamala wanting to appear civil and like she will keep on policy, less personal attacks etc. Show of civility during a divided time will be respected by moderates who are the most important group for debates. Could go either way but i think yes is slightly undervalued here. 40/60 or something imo
Trump and Harris shake hands at first debate?
DonaldinhoTrumpito
1 month ago
These are all fair points. I think I like you, HaterzLoserz. You're not afraid to gamble, you create action, and have sound reasoning to back up your bets. The thing I really like for No is that they're introduced separately, not together like in 2020 and before. Even better, Harris is introduced first, so she can simply go to her podium, and it makes it difficult for Trump to go towards her and request the handshake. It was much more natural in the first 2016 debate when Clinton and Trump met in the middle and shook hands..
HaterzLoserz
1 month ago
Its not about emotions of either side, its about what their strategy team thinks is the best approach/optics. As mentioned before, things like Trump size profile being larger than Kamala and other seemingly random things weigh in favor of Trump wanting to shake hands, and Kamala wanting to appear civil and like she will keep on policy, less personal attacks etc. Show of civility during a divided time will be respected by moderates who are the most important group for debates. Could go either way but i think yes is slightly undervalued here. 40/60 or something imo
Who is asked the first debate question?
DonaldinhoTrumpito
1 month ago
Thanks ! Yeah I got a good feeling about this one... and if not, we can still win the coin toss :D
just.some.guy
1 month ago
As a Kamala holder, I'm reassured to see Donaldihno Trumpito on our side. First, cuz it's a great screen name but also, dude's one of the brightest traders at Poly.
Speed Chess Championship Winner 2024
DonaldinhoTrumpito
1 month ago
If you sell at 99.9c you lose 0.1c per share, so 5$ overall. If you wait you get full value. Depends on you needing the funds immediately or not there's no charges either way.
n/a
1 month ago
Should I square off at 99.99 cents or wait for resolution? Will there be any difference in charges by polymarket? Which is of more advantages?
What will Trump say during Wisconsin rally?
DonaldinhoTrumpito
1 month ago
My profits got aborted by Trump :'(
What will Trump say during Saturday rally?
DonaldinhoTrumpito
2 months ago
Another good night, 7 out of 7 again :)
What will Kamala Harris say during Friday speech?
DonaldinhoTrumpito
2 months ago
Can't blame you for abortion, I would have bought at 50 cents or so, but at 60% it was a bit too expensive for me in a speech that was advertised as economy-focused
BlueSky123
2 months ago
Yep, I bet and didn't even watch the speech lol... My only regret is not buying more of a lot of stuff. Only bet I got wrong was a small loss since she didn't say abortion, but my winnings from her not saying other words far outweighed that. Made a bit over 600 bucks today :)
What will Kamala Harris say during Friday speech?
DonaldinhoTrumpito
2 months ago
Yep, nice reasoning. Inflation is the number 1 grief Americans have against Biden, so there was little chance she would insist on it, because it would remind them too much of her administration number 1 failure. Same thing for "price control", which to many people sounds like a communist measure that doesn't work.
Car
2 months ago
Inflation is a bad word. If she would say theres inflation, she would admit Biden did a bad job.
What will Kamala Harris say during Friday speech?
DonaldinhoTrumpito
2 months ago
This was the easiest market to bet on in a while, haha. 7 No bets, all paying off :D
Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?
DonaldinhoTrumpito
2 months ago
It was mostly Kopecky being overrated, she was priced around 30% and seemed very tired from the start. But you know, you could also say that for the US volley girls who were priced at ~30% and looked completely outmatched out there. In the end the law of averages worked out for the US.
jsoul7654
2 months ago
After watching that with Valente being clearly superior to the field, and with her winning everything the past three years, the pre event odds seem really strange to me
Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?
DonaldinhoTrumpito
2 months ago
I was there and told my friends to buy more US because it was heavily underpriced imo.
diddy
2 months ago
It is good you weren't here today, because you would have had heart attack seeing your USA bet at 33%
Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?
DonaldinhoTrumpito
2 months ago
As it stands, I think the US is worth 78.3% so I'm obviously not selling under what I think is fair value. As for nervousness, it's fun to follow the events with something on the line, even if I have much more invested in Kamala shares. The only thing that got me real mad was that idiot US high jumper refusing to share the gold...
GoblinMilk
2 months ago
Thanks for these posts. If you're not planning on selling early, I'm curious as to how nervous you are. US is obviously favored, but no clear favorite in wrestling, vball or cycling
Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?
DonaldinhoTrumpito
2 months ago
The final event of the night is the wrestling odds being published and putting the US wrestler as a 60% favorite, when many believed she would be an underdog based on pre-tournament chances. Final forecast: Out of 1,000,000 simulations, the US wins 783,519 times. Bonus forecast: Out of 1,000,000 simulations, Japan wins 3rd place 507,664 times.
DonaldinhoTrumpito
2 months ago
China also got some shaky holds in a few events : they were losing 9-6 in the decisive game of the 1st table tennis match against Japan, then recovered to win it 12-10 and proceeded to win the match 3-0. Even more surprising, China could have lost a diving event that they were 99% favorite to win! Their 1st diver had some obvious trouble, making mistakes all over the place, and while their 2nd diver did great, he found a great opponent in a Japanese diver who was only 3 points behind after 4 jumps. Fortunately for China, the pressure got to him and the completely messed up his 5th jump, scoring only 40 points when his average so far was around 90. It was especially tilting because his 6th jump was marvelous: he scored 99 points, best of all jumps in the entire contest! At that point, the US had to hold all their favorites (including a 67% chance in football against Brazil), and get 2 surprising gold from a flurry of ~30% chances in wrestling (x2), breaking (lol@that joke of a sport), women 100m hurdles, cycling and volley (that will take place tomorrow). Things looked really bad at one point, when the football game was 0-0 in the 2nd half and the US had already lost a few 5/10% lotos in a few events.
Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?
DonaldinhoTrumpito
2 months ago
They even hit 40% to win the medal table at one point, which I think they shouldn't have (real odds looked like 50% to me) and as always, athletics would be kind to the USA. First they won the women 100m hurdles by 0,01s (a nice revenge from the canoe event lost by the same margin). Then they held their 2 relays, which are always tough events to secure with the risks of fall and missed transmissions of the baton. And the stars kept aligning for the US when their high jumper had the night of his life, beating his personal best by 3 centimeters. When all was said and done, after 3 failures at 2m38 from both him and his New Zealand opponent, all he had to do was shake hands to share the gold... and that complete moron refused to do it! He decided to go for the playoff battle and karmic justice stroke as he lost the battle, failing to clear 2m38, then 2m36, and finally 2m34. After two final holds by both the US in basketball (93%) and China in boxing (80%, was a real risk of upset), only 5 events remain : a weightlifting contest where China is a huge favorite (~95%), and 4 events where the US has a chance. Women basketball (93%), Omnium cycling (30%), women volleyball (32%) and wrestling.
DonaldinhoTrumpito
2 months ago
China also got some shaky holds in a few events : they were losing 9-6 in the decisive game of the 1st table tennis match against Japan, then recovered to win it 12-10 and proceeded to win the match 3-0. Even more surprising, China could have lost a diving event that they were 99% favorite to win! Their 1st diver had some obvious trouble, making mistakes all over the place, and while their 2nd diver did great, he found a great opponent in a Japanese diver who was only 3 points behind after 4 jumps. Fortunately for China, the pressure got to him and the completely messed up his 5th jump, scoring only 40 points when his average so far was around 90. It was especially tilting because his 6th jump was marvelous: he scored 99 points, best of all jumps in the entire contest! At that point, the US had to hold all their favorites (including a 67% chance in football against Brazil), and get 2 surprising gold from a flurry of ~30% chances in wrestling (x2), breaking (lol@that joke of a sport), women 100m hurdles, cycling and volley (that will take place tomorrow). Things looked really bad at one point, when the football game was 0-0 in the 2nd half and the US had already lost a few 5/10% lotos in a few events.
Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?
DonaldinhoTrumpito
2 months ago
China also got some shaky holds in a few events : they were losing 9-6 in the decisive game of the 1st table tennis match against Japan, then recovered to win it 12-10 and proceeded to win the match 3-0. Even more surprising, China could have lost a diving event that they were 99% favorite to win! Their 1st diver had some obvious trouble, making mistakes all over the place, and while their 2nd diver did great, he found a great opponent in a Japanese diver who was only 3 points behind after 4 jumps. Fortunately for China, the pressure got to him and the completely messed up his 5th jump, scoring only 40 points when his average so far was around 90. It was especially tilting because his 6th jump was marvelous: he scored 99 points, best of all jumps in the entire contest! At that point, the US had to hold all their favorites (including a 67% chance in football against Brazil), and get 2 surprising gold from a flurry of ~30% chances in wrestling (x2), breaking (lol@that joke of a sport), women 100m hurdles, cycling and volley (that will take place tomorrow). Things looked really bad at one point, when the football game was 0-0 in the 2nd half and the US had already lost a few 5/10% lotos in a few events.
DonaldinhoTrumpito
2 months ago
Sorry I wasn't there to comment and give odds these last 2 days, I know some of you appreciated it. Also to avoid making a huge wall of text, I will reply to myself in separate messages, I hope Poly doesn't mind and it they do, they should allow us to make paragraphs. Anyway this was one hell of a rollercoaster and I won't be able to recap it all. The thing that's great about medal bets is that they make you follow all sports with great intensity, especially with the US and China having athletes everywhere. The highlights of today included a surprising China run in golf from someone who was 3% to win to start the day, a unreal choke from both Ukraine and Bulgaria in artistic gymnastics gifting China another gold, two insane close 2nd place for the US, 0,01s behind Canada in canoe and a few points behind in climbing (this one was kind of miraculous, the Slovenian climber was 92% to win before the start, but the US climber did very well in the 1st part and the Slovenian girl appeared to injure her finger... but in the end, she barely prevailed).
Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?
DonaldinhoTrumpito
2 months ago
Sorry I wasn't there to comment and give odds these last 2 days, I know some of you appreciated it. Also to avoid making a huge wall of text, I will reply to myself in separate messages, I hope Poly doesn't mind and it they do, they should allow us to make paragraphs. Anyway this was one hell of a rollercoaster and I won't be able to recap it all. The thing that's great about medal bets is that they make you follow all sports with great intensity, especially with the US and China having athletes everywhere. The highlights of today included a surprising China run in golf from someone who was 3% to win to start the day, a unreal choke from both Ukraine and Bulgaria in artistic gymnastics gifting China another gold, two insane close 2nd place for the US, 0,01s behind Canada in canoe and a few points behind in climbing (this one was kind of miraculous, the Slovenian climber was 92% to win before the start, but the US climber did very well in the 1st part and the Slovenian girl appeared to injure her finger... but in the end, she barely prevailed).
Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?
DonaldinhoTrumpito
2 months ago
Problem is that 2m36 is not enough to win now, he needs 2m38 (which he can pass, of course, but still, tough bar to clear)
jsoul7654
2 months ago
US leading in the high jump, Barshim missed his first but he is the best in the world so he will probably get over one of the next two
Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?
DonaldinhoTrumpito
2 months ago
HUGE 2m36 1st try !
Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?
DonaldinhoTrumpito
2 months ago
A good day for China that could have been legendary. The athletics session turned out fine for the USA, who traded a 75% 200m gold for a 25% long jump medal. But on other fields, things looked dire for a bit with the basketball team in huge trouble and the women waterpolo getting a surprising loss. Unfortunately for China, they didn't really capitalize, losing a 40% chance in taekwondo and a 30% chance in weightlifting that should have been 95% after the first lift. Shi Zhiyong had cleared a 165kg bar, 10kg more than the next competitor, but he aimed too high for the 2nd part of the contest and failed 3 times trying 191kg instead of making sure to get a lift on the board. An unforced blunder that could prove very costly in the end. https://olympics.com/fr/paris-2024/resultats/halterophilie/73-kg---hommes/fnl-000100-- Meanwhile the USA basketball team pulled off a great comeback and are now very likely (95%) to finish the job against France. And the last minute boxing medal keeps China alive in the race. Current situation : out of 1 million simulations, the US wins 942,461 times. USA Yes is a bit underpriced but at my current level of risk I would not want more, even if I had the cash available.
Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?
DonaldinhoTrumpito
2 months ago
Get the odds on some betting website like pinnacle or betfair and remove the vig. Generate a random number that tells you who wins. Do that for all ~120 events remaining. You get a medal table. If it's a tie, the US wins. Repeat the process 1 million times to get robust results.
FamilyCapital
2 months ago
can you give some links to resources were we can learn aswell, how to do such calculation, no trolling... i have real interes!Ty
Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?
DonaldinhoTrumpito
2 months ago
This morning/afternoon has been kind for China so far, with the US missing on speed climbing and women shot put where they had ~40% chance of gold. However China lost in women taekwondo -57kg, which was a 40% chance as well, and the US is climbing in women's golf. Current situation : out of 1 million simulations, the US wins 978,391 times. I wish I could buy more :(
Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?
DonaldinhoTrumpito
2 months ago
Out of 1 million olympic simulations, the US won 985,693 times. Good enough for me :)
Last update on October 22, 2024, 5:33 PM ET
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