#2614
Rank
32
Comments
9
Likes Received
52
Likes Given
Will Speed break the 24h backflip world record?
n/a
2 months ago
bro we're not betting whether guinness certifies the result, else guinness would be the resolution source instead of a youtube video
0
jl3128776
2 months ago
He’s now going to get to 1009 reps on time, and the real question will be Guinness rejecting all those no reps where he used his hands for support. This market will definitely be chaotic between him hitting 1009 reps and Guinness issuing their conclusion.
Will Speed break the 24h backflip world record?
n/a
2 months ago
we're not betting on whether guinness gives him the record, we're betting whether he breaks it. else guinness would be a resolution source
1
jl3128776
2 months ago
There is no way Guinness accepts these reps
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
n/a
2 months ago
https://fortune.com/crypto/2024/10/08/who-invented-bitcoin-hbo-peter-todd/
0
Will Speed break the 24h backflip world record?
n/a
2 months ago
they have the best medical treatment in the world, people say no ones ever seen medical treatment like this
1
Car
2 months ago
Thats some crazy medical treatments he is gettng
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
n/a
2 months ago
yeah that's my thoughts, i guess to people who don't like blockstream. also adam is not exactly unexpected, being one of the first people satoshi emailed and respected cypherpunk
0
UnlimitedMarketAbuse
2 months ago
The one problem is the 'controversial' clue. Would Adam really be 'controversial'?
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
n/a
2 months ago
you mean like the director saying their pick is going to be "unexpected and controversial" while adam is one of the most obvious options?
0
oxvyz
2 months ago
most people dont do research or anything
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
n/a
2 months ago
source: i made it up
0
DeucePapi
2 months ago
They weren't allowed to use that one bc HBO didn't want liability of making Pete or Back targets of kidnapping, harassment etc
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
n/a
2 months ago
hbo max 9pm et, crave.ca in canada
0
winner69
2 months ago
where and when i can watch the documentary ?
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
n/a
2 months ago
can't add more options because the market is negative risk, have to choose other/none
0
DeucePapi
2 months ago
What happens if we all ask the Discord chat to add Peter Todd to this list?
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
n/a
2 months ago
samson is part of the cast he had no role in producing the doc..
0
tomaz
2 months ago
Surely the guy making the documentary is Satoshi friend for years now and decide to randomly accuse him of being satoshi. https://x.com/peterktodd/status/1715699379326103786
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
n/a
2 months ago
we're not betting on whos satoshi actually is .....
1
toshiro
2 months ago
LOL, Adam Back’s definitely not Satoshi, like he hasn’t said that a million times already. But sure, let’s trust HBO’s documentary over the guy himself, because why wouldn’t Satoshi keep denying it, right? And yeah, obviously Satoshi’s lining up interviews now… totally checks out.
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
n/a
2 months ago
what list are you referring to?
0
doriannakamoto
2 months ago
Probability of having the given name “Satoshi” = 1 / 1,000 = 0.001 - Probability of having the surname “Nakamoto” = 1 / 50,000 = 0.00002 -Probability of being a Japanese in the US = 0.00355 - Probability of living extremely close to Hal Finney Probability = 1 / 100,000 = 0.00001 - Probability of being highly intelligent = 0.02 - Probability of being in the right age group = 0.2. 0.00000002 * 0.00355 = 7.1 × 10^-11/7.1 × 10^-11 * 0.00001 = 7.1 × 10^-16/ 7.1 × 10^-16 * 0.02 = 1.42 × 10^-17/ 1.42 × 10^-17 * 0.2 = 2.84 × 10^-18 The probability of Dorian Nakamoto coincidentally fitting the profile of Satoshi Nakamoto is extraordinarily small — about 2.84 in 1 quintillion, or 0.000000000284%. He lied about his skills & past. Also the documentary dude said its non of those in the list… dorian wasn’t in that list. No brainer.
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
n/a
2 months ago
look at the "insiders" buying other/none. also director has said they interview satoshi in the doc..
0
BadMan
2 months ago
The insider is still buying Hal I guess, first trades in 2 months wtf
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
n/a
2 months ago
szabo talks to media just rarely. e.g. he did a 2.5hr podcast with tim ferriss a bunch of years ago. it's possible but pretty unlikely they could visit le roux in jail. i dont think it's adam back because the director says he was their main entry point into the story, and we has featured so prominently in the trailer. but it could be him. i think other or one of the smaller names that would be "unexpected and controversial"
0
FromTheTrenches
2 months ago
Finney, Sassaman and Kleiman are dead (cf Satoshi post 2014-15), Szabo doesn't talk to medias, Le Roux in fucking jail so who's left to confront face to face except Adam Back??
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
n/a
2 months ago
you have to bet other for that, they can't add new options because the market is negrisk
0
CRYPTU
2 months ago
put Isamu Kaneko up there
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
n/a
2 months ago
oh okay so hoback and len's wife are both lying to protect the "integrity" of an hbo doc. lmao
0
Brainstormy
2 months ago
Why would she let everyone know what happened, the contract is to not let any info out before the documentary bruh yall are retarded
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
n/a
2 months ago
except we're not betting who satoshi actually is, we're betting who the identifies as satoshi, and the director says that they talk to him in person
2
Brainstormy
2 months ago
If this doesn't tell u len is satoshi rhen idk what will. https://x.com/evan_worlds/status/1843353900864221511?s=46
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
n/a
2 months ago
guys it's not sassaman. the director says they interview "satoshi" in the doc. also his wife says HBO never approached her during production. if you're betting sassaman you're betting the director is lying or he faked his own death and then agreed to do an interview revealing that to everyone??
1
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
n/a
2 months ago
hobacks says that they identify a single person and they meet them face to face
0
informed
2 months ago
No is only choice. HBO has 0 chance to come with true name
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
n/a
2 months ago
yeah but the market isn't about who satoshi is, it's about who the doc names
0
informed
2 months ago
No is only choice. HBO has 0 chance to come with true name
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
n/a
2 months ago
"I put that on a shelf for a while and said, all right, if I can get prolonged access to one of them as an entry point, that might unlock the larger story. That entry point was Adam Back[…]so it became a key entry point to unlocking the bigger mystery."
0
AdamWayBack
2 months ago
They literally said they challenged their suspect "face to face". Sassaman and Hal are out. Adam is #1 suspect because he was shown like 20 times in the trailer alone.
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
n/a
2 months ago
then you bet on other
0
AksV
2 months ago
The bitcoin creator is not even mentioned in above list. How can I add to the list?
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
n/a
2 months ago
hoback says they talked to who they believe to be satoshi face to face, sassaman is dead. see new cnn interview he did
0
Lucashaw
2 months ago
leggo sassaman
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
n/a
2 months ago
insider trading legally requires a fiduciary duty to be violated, the documentary producers have no fiduciary duty with polymarket users
0
SeanFx
2 months ago
Can you get in trouble for insider trading if you know who it is? Cuz that would suck. Then again HBO doesn't know. Lmao
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
n/a
2 months ago
SCAM
1
SylvesterStallone
2 months ago
Mhhh, the exact same bet has twice аs much liquidity and has different odds, I'm not sure but аrbitrаgе is certainly doable https://x.com/TreeAphaNews/status/1842579398282871238.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
n/a
2 months ago
i think because of the way commit/reveal works under the hood to keep the vote hidden initially, you have to reveal yourself (by sending a transaction), uma isn't able to reveal everyone's votes
1
FamilyCapital
2 months ago
what is the logic behind of having delay on reveal of votes rsult. why not to do that at the same time?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
n/a
2 months ago
scam site don't use it
0
SylvesterStallone
2 months ago
Mhhh, the exact same bet has twice аs much liquidity and has different odds, I'm not sure but аrbitrаgе is certainly doable https://x.com/TreeAphaNews/status/1842579398282871238
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
n/a
2 months ago
p1 is usually no. https://docs.uma.xyz/verification-guide/yes_or_no
1
n/a
2 months ago
Can someone explain to me what P1 means?
What will Trump Say during Pennsylvania rally?
n/a
2 months ago
it doesn't matter, if no one disputes it will resolve yes
0
stacy
2 months ago
"China's always a top five" is a contraction, contractions are not plural, possessive, or compound
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
n/a
2 months ago
can you explain the NO argument? i got to these markets a bit late
0
Car
2 months ago
UMA is not voting in favor of scams. Because that would make UMA itself a scam.
What will Trump Say during North Carolina town hall?
n/a
2 months ago
someone proposed a solution for tax queen already, you should be able to claim in ~1 hour 45 min, assuming no one disputes NO
1
MAGAVictory
2 months ago
I'm new here, do I get the money once this ends?
What will Trump Say during Michigan rally?
n/a
2 months ago
nah it's def over 15
0
JumpingJackFlash
2 months ago
`7 borders?