#701
Rank
63
Comments
18
Likes Received
38
Likes Given
Will there be another debate?
PaulA
1 week ago
Donald Trump was beaten so badly by Kamala Harris he'll never do another debate for the rest of his life.
1
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
PaulA
2 weeks ago
Vance is still underwater in favorability. If Trump picked good people, then why do those who served under him think he's so horrible for this country. Haley ran against him, Pence won't vote for him, etc.
0
Justifax
2 weeks ago
i wonder how much the vance debate moved the polls. trump looks pretty tight for selecting someone who is clearly razor sharp.
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
PaulA
2 weeks ago
The thing is, Polymarket is REALLY bad at predictions.
0
BoeJiden420
2 weeks ago
The betting markets declared Vance the winner of the debate. On the crypto-based betting platform Polymarket, bookmakers believe Vance has a 73% chance of being judged the winner of Tuesday night’s debate in post-debate opinion polls, compared to Walz’s 27%. This is a complete inversion from before the debate, when bettors gave Walz a 70% chance of being declared the debate winner.
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
PaulA
2 weeks ago
Don't think you understand how close the polling has been.
1
Mountainman
2 weeks ago
This was a clear Vance win. If the polls this resolves YES, I think independents and even some liberals may stop believing polling (a lot of conservatives already don't). BUT, being that this is probably the last debate before the election there is always a chance they rig it. I still think Vance takes this but it's not a sure thing solely because of the chance of polling dishonesty.
Will there be another debate?
PaulA
2 weeks ago
We're less than 5 weeks out from Election Day, and Harris's team proposed a debate October 23 (~2 weeks before). Logistically, would probably need both parties to commit within the next week (to allow for the candidates to prepare and CNN to get ready) if that's going to happen. Unlikely, but not impossible.
1
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
PaulA
2 weeks ago
Because they're toxic
0
PatrioticPhenom
2 weeks ago
So many women in America hate JD Vance and Andrew Tate. Why?
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
PaulA
2 weeks ago
You should read the contract rules.
0
Chancey4
2 weeks ago
This CBS snap poll is about to take a lot of Europoor Walz money 💀 Literally every focus group and snap poll has Vance as the winner
Arizona Senate Election Winner
PaulA
3 weeks ago
Fox News poll (Sept 20-24) has Gallego 55%, Lake 42%. Will GOP decide to cut her loose like they did Mark Robinson in NC?
0
North Carolina Governor Election Winner
PaulA
3 weeks ago
Wow, RGA and its PAC had spent nearly $16 million on NC Gov race.
0
Memosin
3 weeks ago
the GOP now cut off support and funding for Robinson, going damage-control mode. Might as well wanna save the little money you bet on him
Will there be another debate?
PaulA
0 months ago
Consider that Americans can't trade on Polymarket, and this contract is about American politics...
0
FreeThePeople
1 month ago
Another Trump bashing account with 0 trade history. Reminds me of the Twitter accounts with 4 followers that defend all the cabal assets and attack Trump.
North Carolina Governor Election Winner
PaulA
1 month ago
It was very probably over for Robinson before this came out, but now he may drag Trump to a loss as well.
0
curryblasta
1 month ago
https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/19/politics/kfile-mark-robinson-black-nazi-pro-slavery-porn-forum/index.html
North Carolina Governor Election Winner
PaulA
1 month ago
Oh no, they hacked every pollster too! https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/governor/general/2024/north-carolina/robinson-vs-stein
4
NotVeryPresidential
1 month ago
He will do well, Polymarket has been hacked.
Kamala flips Trump on Silver Bulletin by Sept 30?
PaulA
1 month ago
TheFinalWord - do you think economic data is what drove the Trump decline over last 10 days? The model is weighted about 9x more for polling than economic data, and Silver had been reducing Harris's numbers due to the convention adjustment. However, since that was about a month ago there's less and less of her being ahead in the polls *and behind in his model* -- such as Pennsylvania and Nevada.
0
PaulA
1 month ago
Trump has gone from 64.4% to 51.0% in 10 days, how sure are you he won't fall below 50% in next 11 days?
Kamala flips Trump on Silver Bulletin by Sept 30?
PaulA
1 month ago
Polling data is the main driver in Silver Bulletin
0
BrandonThought
1 month ago
Daily reminder that positive economic data for September won't be released until next month so the model is probably operating max pos for Kamala right now
Kamala flips Trump on Silver Bulletin by Sept 30?
PaulA
1 month ago
Based on what? Trump was only ahead because of Silver's highly controversial convention adjustment. The farther we get from that, the more it will converge with all the other forecasts that show Harris leading.
0
n/a
1 month ago
If not today I don't think it happens.
Kamala flips Trump on Silver Bulletin by Sept 30?
PaulA
1 month ago
Trump has gone from 64.4% to 51.0% in 10 days, how sure are you he won't fall below 50% in next 11 days?
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-Rocambole-
1 month ago
not going to happen
Kamala flips Trump on Silver Bulletin by Sept 30?
PaulA
1 month ago
Yikes, you sure you don't want to delete that?
0
x.com/polymarketbet
1 month ago
with all current polls, Trump is down only 56% from 60% previously. Traditionally, Trump's polls drop immediately after a debate and recover within a week or two. Harris has 0 chance of getting over 50% in the model. She needs 10 more A+ polls with a 10+ lead to do it. This is impossible
Kamala flips Trump on Silver Bulletin by Sept 30?
PaulA
1 month ago
You sure do blind yourself with those rose-colored glasses. You can't just ignore all the polls you don't like and be intellectually honest.
0
x.com/polymarketbet
1 month ago
we are seeing A+ polls including Atlas that say Trump is leading EVEN nationally. InsiderAdvantage A poll shows Trump leading in both Michigan and Pennsylvania. You are simply trying to call these polls “propaganda”, although in all previous years they suited you
Kamala flips Trump on Silver Bulletin by Sept 30?
PaulA
1 month ago
Trump dropped 8.2% in 8 days (Sept 9-17) and then 4.2% today. It's definitely looking like Thursday or Friday unless the polling drops.
0
rozi
1 month ago
Tomorrow is the day :)
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
PaulA
1 month ago
Maybe not so obvious
0
ManL
1 month ago
The Fed will simply do the obvious, as it always does. And the obvious is -25
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
PaulA
1 month ago
Jerome Powell is a Republican, nominated as chair of the Fed by Trump.
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Lopgft
1 month ago
Jerome do the right thing
Will there be another debate?
PaulA
1 month ago
Biden and Trump agreed to two debates. Kamala hasn't quite been in the race for 2 months yet. I don't think there's been much of any planning beyond Trump suggesting random dates and networks a few weeks ago.
0
n/a
1 month ago
It’s not like they’re starting from scratch. There have been tentative discussions with networks for months.
Will there be another debate?
PaulA
1 month ago
What's the latest such a presidential debate could realistically be agreed to? In 2016 and 2020 they had debates 20 and 12 days from the election, respectively, but it probably takes a couple weeks for the network to actually set everything up. My guess would be around beginning of October if nothing in the works by then, it's definitely not happening.
1
ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?
PaulA
1 month ago
LOL no
0
MartyMcFly
1 month ago
https: Benny Johnson 2m Followers //x.com/bennyjohnson/status/1835347010527822267 not credible?
ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?
PaulA
1 month ago
Per "Additional Context" in the rules, this is still missing "The name must be either be public on the affidavit, or confirmed by credible sources to have relation to ABC."
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J00zDid9II
1 month ago
It was released
Will there be another debate?
PaulA
1 month ago
Trump looks like a total coward to America. It was very clear he lost and his campaign has no confidence another debate would be any better for him.
0
Mikewazowski
1 month ago
Chickenmala already backed out of 2 now after she’s losing in the polls she wants another in a rigged format. Sorry game over chickenmala
Will there be another debate?
PaulA
1 month ago
It depends to what extent. If he's way behind, then yes, he should definitely debate. If he's still kinda close, the risk of losing badly again may be game over for him and he won't do it. That said, you can't wait forever on these things -- in-person early voting actually starts next week in some states and first absentee ballots have already gone out.
0
n/a
1 month ago
truth. and with falling poll numbers, trump will have no choice but to debate.
North Carolina Presidential Election Winner
PaulA
1 month ago
And even if polling remains unchanged, that'll keep dropping due to aging out the convention adjustment.
0
L114
1 month ago
Dropped down to 66% just now
North Carolina Presidential Election Winner
PaulA
1 month ago
NC article: https://www.natesilver.net/p/could-kamala-harris-really-win-north
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PaulA
1 month ago
Nate Silver writes today: "Last update: 4:15 p.m., Tuesday, September 10: She’d been on a losing streak — but the model thought this was the best day of state polling for Kamala Harris in a long while. That was particularly true in North Carolina, where she got two high-quality polls showing her ahead. North Carolina is now the second-most likely tipping-point state, in fact: this post goes into more detail about the political attributes of the Tar Heel State."
North Carolina Presidential Election Winner
PaulA
1 month ago
Nate Silver writes today: "Last update: 4:15 p.m., Tuesday, September 10: She’d been on a losing streak — but the model thought this was the best day of state polling for Kamala Harris in a long while. That was particularly true in North Carolina, where she got two high-quality polls showing her ahead. North Carolina is now the second-most likely tipping-point state, in fact: this post goes into more detail about the political attributes of the Tar Heel State."
0
North Carolina Presidential Election Winner
PaulA
1 month ago
If polls don't matter, then you admit you're just going off vibes. Quote from Nate Silver: "Moreover, one of the core hypotheses of our forecast is that polling bias is unpredictable: Polls will be biased against Republicans in some years and biased against Democrats in other years, but it’s hard to predict the direction of the bias in advance. That was the case in 2022, where Democrats were modestly underrated by the polls in 2022 — albeit with some misses in both directions — after Republicans considerably overperformed their polls in 2016 and 2020." Link: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-our-2022-midterm-forecasts-performed/
0
x.com/polymarketbet
1 month ago
Biden led NC by 5% and still ended up losing the state in 2020. Poll results don't matter in NC, and Trump is leading in NC according to polls
North Carolina Presidential Election Winner
PaulA
1 month ago
If I was betting money on something, I'd be looking for anything to point to how I could be *wrong* so I am fully informed and don't make a costly mistake. Not using confirmation bias, cherry picking, and results made up out of thin air to justify my decision. One can make legitimate arguments about NC being historically favorable to Republicans statewide and some polls that understated Trump support. But anyone who thinks this is not a competitive state has disqualified themselves from being considered rational.
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n/a
1 month ago
guy is trying to find an exit lol
North Carolina Presidential Election Winner
PaulA
1 month ago
Once again, you're cherry picking. Instead of posting the final RCP average which had Trump ahead. https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2016/north-carolina/trump-vs-clinton
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x.com/polymarketbet
1 month ago
Oct 30. 2016 RealClearPoll Average North Carolina Clinton 47.9%, Trump 44.7%. Real Results - Trump 49.8%, Clinton 46.2%
North Carolina Presidential Election Winner
PaulA
1 month ago
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2020/north-carolina/trump-vs-biden It's funny you don't show the FINAL RCP average which had Trump ahead. Keep picking those cherries
0
x.com/polymarketbet
1 month ago
Oct 30. 2020 RealClearPoll Average North Carolina Biden 48.9%, Trump 46.6%. Real Results - Trump 50%, Biden 48.7%
North Carolina Presidential Election Winner
PaulA
1 month ago
You deny reality.
0
x.com/polymarketbet
1 month ago
Sep 7. 2024 RealClearPoll Average North Carolina Trump 47.9%, Harris 47.2%. She doesn't stand a chance. Clinton and Biden each led in the polls by 3 percentage points and lost by 3 percentage points in North Carolina. Nate Silver predicts Trump will win NC with a 78% chance. Polymarket is filled with people who deny reality. In 80 years, a Republican has lost in North Carolina 1 time, and he lost to Obama.
North Carolina Presidential Election Winner
PaulA
1 month ago
x.com/polymarketbet is spamming now because he posted a fake NC poll and got called out for it. Then he just accuses anyone who is posting legitimate stuff as a Russian bot. Sad
1
North Carolina Presidential Election Winner
PaulA
1 month ago
If you think I'm a bot, you need to get your head checked. You're a fraud, posting bogus poll results. "Half a year"? If you click my profile, it says when I joined. You're so loose with the facts, and you claim to have worked at Google *eyeroll*
0
x.com/polymarketbet
1 month ago
Oct 30. 2016 RealClearPoll Average North Carolina Clinton 47.9%, Trump 44.7%. Real Results - Trump 49.8%, Clinton 46.2%
North Carolina Presidential Election Winner
PaulA
1 month ago
Hilarious! You're getting real desperate now looking back 8 years. The cope is strong with this one
0
x.com/polymarketbet
1 month ago
Oct 30. 2016 RealClearPoll Average North Carolina Clinton 47.9%, Trump 44.7%. Real Results - Trump 49.8%, Clinton 46.2%
North Carolina Presidential Election Winner
PaulA
1 month ago
You are posting FAKE data. 54 to 45 is 9 points, not 6. You cannot provide any source to it. Delete your phony nonsense
0
x.com/polymarketbet
1 month ago
2024 North Carolina GE: Trump 54% (+6) Harris 45%
North Carolina Presidential Election Winner
PaulA
1 month ago
Polymarket is slow to embrace reality
2
Factual
1 month ago
How is this still GOP 61 percent? Even Redfield has Harris ahead.
North Carolina Presidential Election Winner
PaulA
1 month ago
Yes, you are posting FAKE information. That's why you can't provide any proof.
0
x.com/polymarketbet
1 month ago
2024 North Carolina GE: Trump 54% (+6) Harris 45%
North Carolina Presidential Election Winner
PaulA
1 month ago
Nate Silver is not a pollster and he does not conduct polls. A quick look at 538 or RCP shows Trump has not gotten above 50% in any poll with Harris for NC: https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/north-carolina/trump-vs-harris & https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/
0
x.com/polymarketbet
1 month ago
2024 North Carolina GE: Trump 54% (+6) Harris 45%
Florida Presidential Election Winner
PaulA
1 month ago
Trump moved to Florida, so it is his home state. It was also the second closest state in 2020 that actually went for Trump -- by 3.36%. I'm not sure how losing incumbency, getting another impeachment, and becoming a convicted felon makes you a stronger candidate.
1
camheff
1 month ago
Florida has effectively become Trump's home state. Even if he bombs in the debate he wont lose it. Kamala isn't even going to campaign here or waste money with advertising. It's trended deeper red & Trump is a stronger candidate in 2024 then he was in 2020
North Carolina Presidential Election Winner
PaulA
1 month ago
That's not a poll, that's a forecast. Silver updates daily with the latest polls, but as his last update was 19 hours ago he hasn't included the most recent ones from Quinnipiac, Morning Consult, and SurveyUSA -- none of which have Trump leading. https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model
0
x.com/polymarketbet
1 month ago
2024 North Carolina GE: Trump 54% (+6) Harris 45%
North Carolina Presidential Election Winner
PaulA
1 month ago
RCP has Trump leading by just 0.1 and the governor's race +9.2 for the Democrat. While NC has voted Republican for the last 3 elections, it's pretty close to a coin toss right now.
0
Florida Presidential Election Winner
PaulA
1 month ago
Trump lead down to 2 points in Morning Consult poll (Aug 30-Sept 8). Being oldest major party presidential nominee with a deeply unpopular Sen. Rick Scott (who won in 2018 midterm with 0.12 percentage points) running is not helping GOP.
1
Georgia Presidential Election Winner
PaulA
1 month ago
Per the Rules: "The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification."
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AreCon
1 month ago
(Sorry if this is duplicate) Question: What are the criteria for a 'win'? EG: What if Harris gets more votes in GA but MAGA election workers prevent the vote from being certified??
Pennsylvania Presidential Election Winner
PaulA
1 month ago
You're right people *should* be rational and try to make money, but others are blowing their life savings because they're so emotionally invested and they'll put on rose-tinted glasses to ignore all the red flags.
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Neptino
1 month ago
You do realize thats the whole point of betting markets right? Why are you here if you take a position on ANYTHING?? We are here to make money not pick a side... I dont care who wins nor should anyone on here. Profits only. If you bet with your heart and not your brain you need to leave. So wouldnt you want them diluting the numbers making the more accurate bets more valuable? Seems to me youre the same type of person you're complaining about.... hypocritical.
Pennsylvania Presidential Election Winner
PaulA
1 month ago
Harris leads on RCP in both 2-way and 5-way for Pennsylvania... If you're going to make claims, they need to at least be rooted in reality.
0
MrNFT
1 month ago
It's easily Trump. If Kamala can't even lead in the polls here when every other poll already swinged her way, then Trump wins it
Pennsylvania Presidential Election Winner
PaulA
1 month ago
Don't think you understand probability
0
ForeverTrump24
1 month ago
Harris not picking sharpiro definitely makes her lose Pennsylvania
Nevada Presidential Election Winner
PaulA
1 month ago
Jill Stein (Green). RFK Jr has been removed from the ballot. See https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G24/NV
0
jeffreybawerman
1 month ago
Who are the others?
Nevada Presidential Election Winner
PaulA
1 month ago
George W. Bush was last Republican to carry Nevada (2.59 points in 2004, 3.54 points in 2000), and before that his father in 1988.
0
IncompetentKamala
1 month ago
I vote for trump but NV hasn't win a rep pres for decades i hope lombardo help him win this time
Pennsylvania Presidential Election Winner
PaulA
1 month ago
Perhaps rounding? 50.5% and 49.5% = 100%
1
n/a
1 month ago
How can the Republicans be at 51% and the dems at 50
Pennsylvania Presidential Election Winner
PaulA
1 month ago
Looks like 170,462 more active Democratic voters than Republican voters as of 8/26/2024. It'll be interesting to see how the other/no affiliation vote. Biden won PA by 80,555 in 2020.
0
retrobrahhh
1 month ago
Republicans out gained Democrats by 1900 registrations this week. Same trend every week.
Pennsylvania Presidential Election Winner
PaulA
1 month ago
Trump won PA in 2016 by 0.72% (Libertarians got 2.38%, Greens 0.81%). Trump lost PA in 2020 by 1.17% (Libertarians got 1.15%). Its worth noting that in the most recent election (2022), Pennsylvania's Josh Shapiro won over Trump-endorsed Doug Mastriano by a 14.78 point margin, John Fetterman defeated Trump-endorsed Dr. Oz by a 4.92 point margin, and Democrats flipped control of the State House after gaining 12 seats.
4
0x581a1CbB2a9db5182d93015f68c282773Ed89CB9-1724612957154
1 month ago
Trump will win PA by at least 1.5%
Pennsylvania Presidential Election Winner
PaulA
2 months ago
Jewish governors: 4 Democrats, 0 Republicans. Jewish US Senators: 9 Democrats (including Majority Leader), 0 Republicans. Jewish US Representatives: 24 Democrats, 2 Republicans.
6
TimWalzHorse
2 months ago
The Democrats hate Jews
Pennsylvania Presidential Election Winner
PaulA
2 months ago
Delusional
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0x00a7fb2FE27506D60e9ac7D06B3EeB163135d0e9-1723841610499
2 months ago
Shapiro never won in the first place. They cheated in that election. Philadelphia was founded by William Penn. There is no way they can destroy that state.
Maine's 2nd Congressional District Presidential Election Winner
PaulA
2 months ago
In the only poll thus far since Kamala Harris won the nomination, she leads Maine's 2nd Congressional District by 5 points (Aug 15-19, University of New Hampshire Survey Center)
1
Protestor invades stage at DNC?
PaulA
2 months ago
DNC ends August 22
0
n/a
2 months ago
Heck Id even take bet on the exact time: The American Jewish Community and Israel After October 7 12:00PM – 1:30PM CDT
Pennsylvania Presidential Election Winner
PaulA
2 months ago
Historically inaccurate? Lets look at last presidential election, RCP Average +1.2 Biden. Final result: +1.2 Biden https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2020/pennsylvania/trump-vs-biden
1
0xE1aCf869D4948906D3d0cFada69646f005f188d7-1724023900985
2 months ago
The polls have been historically inaccurate. She doesn’t have the numbers to win her numbers in the swing states are significantly lower than both Biden And Hillary at the same time in 2016 and 2020. They overestimate A minute Democrats. Go ahead and look at we clear polling and compare the numbers for yourself
Arizona Presidential Election Winner
PaulA
2 months ago
What a ridiculous thing to say given actual data.
0
exitthesystem
2 months ago
0.0% Chance Harris wins AZ
Arizona Presidential Election Winner
PaulA
2 months ago
Not sure if you just missed the news this week or what, but Arizona Proposition 139, is the Right to Abortion Initiative. https://ballotpedia.org/Arizona_Proposition_139,_Right_to_Abortion_Initiative_(2024)
1
n/a
2 months ago
literally does not matter who gets elected because abortion is given back to the states to vote on it, it was a supreme court decision
Arizona Presidential Election Winner
PaulA
2 months ago
1) It wasn't communism. 2) Abortion is on ballot
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0x3cbd4bBe96B128C7fA4Ed462784584C659De015F-1723225664974
2 months ago
after harris economic plan which mirrored communism - harris is not gonna win arizona - the cats out of the bag on this leftist - this is scary