#16734
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Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
nomo98712
1 month ago
How many more ballots do you think will come from NYC?
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UnlimitedMarketAbuse
1 month ago
I dunno if it's just late scammers below or just grossly negligent joiners - always impossible to tell - but NY will drop DEM and drop very large. This will likely add at least 80K more to Kamala Harris versus Trump, bringing her under 1.5%. By likely, I mean 75/25 .. which is pretty darn likely. Some may argue there is EV+ at 80/20, but I dunno. For me, NY is a very volatile counting state and things can change dramatically from year to year.
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
nomo98712
1 month ago
How do you know that affidavits weren't already counted in election results because those are in person votes?
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UnlimitedMarketAbuse
1 month ago
Imho, I think the market is a bit over priced (why I sold) but not by much. My earlier mistake was underestimating affidavits coming out of NY, however after trolling through all the archives, I see that affadavits are much higher in NY than the 1% you see across the state. 2%-3% is definitely plausible. https://vote.nyc/page/election-results-summary (scroll down)
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
nomo98712
1 month ago
How many more ballots do you think will come from NY? Source?
0
UnlimitedMarketAbuse
1 month ago
I dunno if it's just late scammers below or just grossly negligent joiners - always impossible to tell - but NY will drop DEM and drop very large. This will likely add at least 80K more to Kamala Harris versus Trump, bringing her under 1.5%. By likely, I mean 75/25 .. which is pretty darn likely. Some may argue there is EV+ at 80/20, but I dunno. For me, NY is a very volatile counting state and things can change dramatically from year to year.