n/a | Polymarket Tracker

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

n/a

2 weeks ago

Bought other purely based on some new wallet market buying other all the way up to 93 cent

0

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

Gavin Andresen has stated that he knows who Satoshi is and has seen hard evidence, but has signed NDAs and would never tell regardless. Interesting that he used to work for Adam Back over at Blockstream. I dont know of many Cypherpunk OGs who go around signing NDA with randomers claiming to be Satoshi. However, the doc doesnt need to reach any reasonable conclusions, they can pick what evidence they want to create the best story they can, which is their goal. If its other after all the new account activity there in the last couple days, this site is turning into a clown fest as it gets more mainstream attention lol

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

n/a

2 weeks ago

Good night Car

11

Car

2 weeks ago

YES holders celebrating too early

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

n/a

2 weeks ago

Welcome back on the team

0

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

Wise man

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

n/a

2 weeks ago

Time to get some sunlight fren

2

Car

2 weeks ago

"Enter" and "Invade" are 2 markets with completely different rules. The rules for this "Invade" market were not satisfied at the time of the proposal before the deadline. That is why it went to P4. Whatever happens after the deadline, should obviously not be considered. Even if you want to consider the new evidence from October, there is still no "Intent to establish control over any portion of Lebanon".

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

n/a

2 weeks ago

Some claim oct 2 but I've yet to see proper proof for it

0

DonaldinhoTrumpito

2 weeks ago

So let’s assume Yes wins in the November market, as it’s overwhelmingly doing it right now (currently 91/9). It means there is indeed an invasion with intent of control. Is there any No September defender who can tell us when this invasion started in their view?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

n/a

2 weeks ago

Does seem to have commenced on the 30th. So if whatever is going on counts as an invasion. Then this would be a yes as well. Looking forward to the November vote

1

Car

2 weeks ago

nobody agreed it happened on september 30th. Otherwise the vote wouldnt have gone to P4

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

n/a

2 weeks ago

Call me crazy, but if the the consensus is that November will resolve to yes with seemingly the same information as this one. It baffles me that this one is still at 43% yes

4

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

n/a

3 weeks ago

Control is part of occupation. Occupation can be part of control. They invaded Lebanon to create a buffer zone between the border, with an uncertain timeline. This is a clear intent to assert control over the region, regardless of whether they plan to occupy it long term

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

n/a

3 weeks ago

I'd say control is part of occupation but occupation doesn't have to be part of control. They invaded Lebanon, over ground, to take over the border region to create a buffer. I'd say that falls safely within the rules. If this isn't asserting control, then i don't know what is

0

Car

3 weeks ago

4 hr 13 min ago Israeli officials say there will be "no long-term occupation" of Lebanon, but decline to provide timeline

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

n/a

3 weeks ago

Imagine seeing all the news and still buying no🤡

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

n/a

3 weeks ago

Congrats to everyone still able to scoop up free money

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

n/a

3 weeks ago

I initially thought the same but invading to clear positions is a form of control, albeit it temporarily. The rules don't specify control for a certain amount of time

0

Car

3 weeks ago

So how do the Yes people want to resolve this when IDF stated they are only invading to destroy Hezbollah infrastructure? They have told the US its only a limited invasion and they are not gaining any territory.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

n/a

3 weeks ago

Paperhanded to the other side. Seems like it's either today or never

2

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

n/a

3 weeks ago

If they shortly enter Libanon to attack a target but retreat back after it won't count as an invasion. The rules state it should be with the intent to take control. Will be an interesting one

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

n/a

3 weeks ago

Control includes ground control. Some airstrikes and people moving doesn't mean much

1

n/a

3 weeks ago

So if Hezbollah bombs a city across the border of Israel they've established control there?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

n/a

3 weeks ago

So if Hezbollah bombs a city across the border of Israel they've established control there?

1

AugustoPinochet73

3 weeks ago

This market should resolve to Yes because Israel’s Northern Arrows operation has targeted key Hezbollah areas in southern Lebanon, displacing thousands and effectively establishing control. By clearing civilians and hitting strategic positions, Israel is not just defending but asserting control over parts of Lebanon. 💥🌍

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 month ago

What would they even gain from invading. Just makes them more vulnerable to outside attacks

2

MrKangaroo

1 month ago

They could definitely attack Hezbollah further but "military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Lebanon" is absolutely insane, really high yield for a bond maturing in 11 days

What will Trump say during North Carolina rally?

n/a

1 month ago

Border at 86 is some of the freest money I've seen in a while

1

Fed Interest Rates: September 2024

n/a

1 month ago

Congrats well played

0

Fed Interest Rates: September 2024

n/a

1 month ago

Why are we going down? Did I miss anything? My diamond hands can barely stand the heat

0

Fed Interest Rates: September 2024

n/a

1 month ago

Sir this is a casino

4

monodactyl

1 month ago

Any people hedging their actual portfolio here?

Fed Interest Rates: September 2024

n/a

1 month ago

65/35 on CME in favor of 50 bps

0

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

n/a

1 month ago

Can't wait for them to just announce a generic platform that just takes fees

1

LaCuriosidad

1 month ago

Last chance to sell for YES holders with Trump Coin Derangement Syndrome

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

n/a

1 month ago

The trump order book is half as thin as Harris'. If there will be any fuckery it will most certainly be in favour of trump

4

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

n/a

1 month ago

Would be way easier to just buy Harris shares and let the market run its course as Harris is way ahead everywhere else. None of those big whales seem to have a significant trump position here and at these prices it'll be hard to load up properly

0

Caligulas.dog

1 month ago

That assumes that the want to hold Trump shares in the end of the day, otherwise they will have to buy back these Harris shares at a higher price point ... to what? Manipuate a market that has a fraction of the volume?

Pavel Durov released in August?

n/a

1 month ago

Nevermind. Seems more like another place of custody per the rules

0

Pavel Durov released in August?

n/a

1 month ago

Seems like he is out of custody

0

Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl?

n/a

1 month ago

It is crystal clear it is a boy, can we please stop disputing every market

3

What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?

n/a

2 months ago

This seems like a more solid source than a random opinion from anyone. Without a further definition of what qualifies as a compound element this builds a solid case for yes

2

n/a

2 months ago

https://www.merriam-webster.com/grammar/spelling-using-compound-words-guide : Specifically mentions -ful as a compound element

What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?

n/a

2 months ago

The context feels weird. Why try to manipulate the market instead of just letting the UMA process unfold...

3

Will Taylor Swift attend the DNC?

n/a

2 months ago

Your donation is appreciated

0

RadLilDude

2 months ago

I will take your money

Will Taylor Swift attend the DNC?

n/a

2 months ago

If you think she will appear right after ending her tour you are delusional. She is chilling at home

1

Venezuela Presidential Election Winner

n/a

2 months ago

Currently 96% early request. Curious to see how this one will turn out. With official sources certifying the results this one should be obvious, regardless of claims by any other parties.

2

person1

2 months ago

Does anyone know how the UMA vote is going? I am new to polymarket, but see that “early request” is apparently winning. Is that correct? If so, what happens next? To me, it is plainly obvious that per the terms of the bet, Maduro “won” and that he should resolve to “yes”. The primary source of information for resolution is Venezuela’s electoral authority, and they proclaimed Maduro “winner” (link to press conference https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ihRoxaHRh2M). Obviously the result is fraudulent and will be contested by the opposition, but that is not what this bet is about…

Venezuela Presidential Election Winner

n/a

2 months ago

Maduro has been announced as the official winner via official channels. Anything other than resolving this market to yes soon would be a straight up scam.

11

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Liked by n/a, BigMike202... and 9 others

Democratic Nominee 2024

n/a

3 months ago

Ez for Kingmala

1

ItsJeover

3 months ago

these people are virgins

Republican VP nominee?

n/a

3 months ago

ez

0