#105
Rank
156
Comments
83
Likes Received
183
Likes Given
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Au-gust
3 weeks ago
People are getting really specific with ‘establish control’. The purpose of that phrasing is to disqualify short raids into Lebanese territory. No one can describe the incoming incursion as a raid with the amount of equipment poised to move into Lebanon. Doubly, the purpose of the incursion is clearly meant to disrupt hezbollah infrastructure and operations in the south of the country, that will require a military presence that can only be described as ‘establishing control’.
0
Israeli forces enter Lebanon before November?
Au-gust
3 weeks ago
Must be confirmed by Israel per rules
0
Will Russia capture Toretsk before October?
Au-gust
1 month ago
Toretsk is important for the supply line to chasiv yar
1
Justifax
1 month ago
It's a risky market. It can fall all at once. Tactical retreats do happen
Will Joe Biden endorse Donald Trump?
Au-gust
1 month ago
It says official information, if he says I'm endorsing Trump accidentally but then quickly retracts his statement that wouldn't count ostensibly.
0
Will Travis Kelce endorse Kamala Harris?
Au-gust
1 month ago
One single source from the Daily Mail? I'll take that bet
0
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
Au-gust
1 month ago
Nice
0
PolyToni
1 month ago
Now the forecast is at 35%. Almost free money here
Will Biden finish his term?
Au-gust
1 month ago
Doesn't have to resign, he could also die.
2
VaithunPhuSang-Fabric
1 month ago
"It is very hard to accept that Biden will resign."
Will Russia capture Toretsk before October?
Au-gust
1 month ago
If your asking this question I don't think you should be betting here no offence
0
AugustoPinochet73
1 month ago
Honest question, there is any fighting during weekends? I dont see maps moving
Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?
Au-gust
1 month ago
Did they change the title of the market ?
1
Ukraine strike on Moscow by September 30?
Au-gust
1 month ago
Witnesses? this guy and his 15 no shares
0
Crock95
1 month ago
It's funny to compete with Americans (?), when you know Russian and understand how to quickly view information. How Kapotnya differs from Kashira and so on.. As a result, I earned $7800😎 I bought shares for 1-2 cents, having seen the news that drones were flying to Moscow, and one fell in Podolsk (Moscow region) Then I simply monitored district chats in different towns. It became immediately clear that at 6:30 a.m. they "shot down" a drone over the Moscow Oil Refinery! At some point at 7:30 a.m. Moscow time, someone simply posted a video of the arrival in one of the district groups in Kapotnya! Local residents began to threaten him there, they will hand him over to the police:) Here I found it, already on Twitter. https://x.com/angelys667/status/1830114144768409775 It wasn't super perfect, but it was clear that it had arrived, and here it is, it helped to earn another $2,500 By the way, I'm rereading the local chat now and realized that the second drone arrived at the refinery at 7:30 in the morning, lol. Already after the deadline. (the deadline is at 7 am (the first one was at 6:25 am and was allegedly shot down, no video). It was probably possible to sell the shares for 99, buy them for 0.5 and continue the dispute But that's another story...
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
Au-gust
1 month ago
Ok lol
0
babendums
1 month ago
You are missing something
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
Au-gust
1 month ago
Trump seems kinda underpriced? Harris declined .4 and Trump .6. Just need a trump+1 print to tie the change from aug 23rd... unless im missing something
2
Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?
Au-gust
1 month ago
Comments on this site underrated, everything is more funny because there’s something at stake.
1
Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?
Au-gust
1 month ago
You'll lose the dispute lol all the whales are behind yes
0
What will Walz say during CNN interview?
Au-gust
1 month ago
He says teacher man your grasping at straws, sure he doesn't enunciate properly but the word is there
0
Astronaut
1 month ago
This will prob resolve yes, i just would really like to know if the people actually hear him say teacher or use other sources or are biased, because i genuinly cannot hear that word
Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?
Au-gust
1 month ago
Don't engage wat for the love of god
2
Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?
Au-gust
1 month ago
You're*
0
Car
1 month ago
Youre*
Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?
Au-gust
1 month ago
Maybe it was North Korea
0
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
Ukraine has not claimed responsibility for this attack. It could have come from anyone.
Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?
Au-gust
1 month ago
Right now the only reason that No is 8.7 is doubts that UMA will resolve correctly
1
Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?
Au-gust
1 month ago
lol
0
Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?
Au-gust
1 month ago
Refinery being hit : https://x.com/JimmySecUK/status/1830138540081983933 , timestamp at same location before deadline : https://x.com/VyshnyaOstap/status/1830092157404807299
1
Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?
Au-gust
1 month ago
Nothing confirms Lol hows this ? : https://x.com/JimmySecUK/status/1830138540081983933
0
OmenOfLord
1 month ago
Nothing confirms the drones actually hit. I assume mainstream media will pick the story up today if it's credible. This would be a pretty big development.
Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?
Au-gust
1 month ago
Lmao 'gOoD LuCk wItH a tEleGrAm ChaNel' THERE IS VIDEO OF THE ATTACK BEFORE 7AM LMAO
0
Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?
Au-gust
1 month ago
Wont let me post telegram links.
0
Au-gust
1 month ago
The exile nova telegram channel has timestamps and coordinates of video showing the refinery on fire at 6:30am local time.
Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?
Au-gust
1 month ago
The exile nova telegram channel has timestamps and coordinates of video showing the refinery on fire at 6:30am local time.
0
Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?
Au-gust
1 month ago
Timestamps and geolocation of the Moscow Oil refinery being hit by suicide drones is widely available... any remaining nos are grifting sowing, confusion...
1
Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?
Au-gust
1 month ago
There is video at 11:30, genius, of the refinery on fire lmao
1
Kirrilos
1 month ago
Drone hit the object but after deadline
Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?
Au-gust
1 month ago
Do the rules say that the market will be resolved according to when the firefighters arrive ? lol
0
jagajaga
1 month ago
if the video from X was at 6:30, then the firefighters received a signal, they drank tea, read the newspaper and then went to the exit at 7:59 https://tass.ru/proisshestviya/21735977
Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?
Au-gust
1 month ago
car trying to pump no
2
Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?
Au-gust
1 month ago
No damage you clown lmao
2
jagajaga
1 month ago
A drone was shot down in the area of the Moscow Refinery. There was no damage or casualties, there are no threats to the operation of the Moscow Refinery. And another one was shot down in the urban district of Ramensky on approach to Moscow. 11:30 est /mos_sobyanin
Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?
Au-gust
1 month ago
all is fair in love and polymarket folks, sooner you realize that the better
0
Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?
Au-gust
1 month ago
Thats not normal flaring lol
0
Car
1 month ago
This is a video of a normal gas stack/gas flare which every oil refinery has and which is always turned on.
Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?
Au-gust
1 month ago
There is video of a drone clearing hitting the refinery.
1
TrumpCouch2024
1 month ago
I think the reporting on whether a drone actually struck a target within Moscow is unclear. Im finding some sources saying "reportedly hit", while others are claiming debrief from the shot down drones caused the fire at the Oil refinery. Tbh this is a bit of a punt
Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?
Au-gust
1 month ago
Question is also when the drone hit has to be before 7am local time.
1
Donkov
1 month ago
Why do you leave the door open for rules cucks lmao? Just make the market about any damage caused by drones or missiles. "even if it enters Moscow's airspace and its wreckage lands in Moscow causing damage, it will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution."
Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?
Au-gust
1 month ago
Lol
0
Car
1 month ago
Obtain proof that this happened before market end date and then click the propose button. Im chilling with 5k YES shares in the September market, so dont worry about me!
Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?
Au-gust
1 month ago
Or just say drone attack lmao
0
Donkov
1 month ago
Why do you leave the door open for rules cucks lmao? Just make the market about any damage caused by drones or missiles. "even if it enters Moscow's airspace and its wreckage lands in Moscow causing damage, it will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution."
Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?
Au-gust
1 month ago
But it clearly isn't debris.... the video shows the drone flying right into the refinery lmao
3
dreamer
1 month ago
For the purposes of this market, if a missile or drone launched by the Ukrainian armed forces is intercepted before striking Moscow or any target in it, even if it enters Moscow's airspace and its wreckage lands in Moscow causing damage, it will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution.
Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?
Au-gust
1 month ago
I think you don't understand what the word wreckage means. Wreckage implies the the vehicle has already crashed and become disabled, if the vehicle/object is still in flight and active... it isn't wreckage.
1
Justifax
1 month ago
The fundamental problem with this market is there is specific language "wreckage lands in Moscow causing damage" .. which is exactly how these suicide drones work. All media in the war zones is subject to serious censorship and it's unlikely they are going to admit to "a drone successfully penetrated our defenses and hit its target". I mean, for real, not sure what the rule writers were thinking.
Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?
Au-gust
1 month ago
I mean theres a pretty clear video of a drone hitting the refinery dead on.. it doesn't matter if people were shooting at it lmao or even if they shot it... it hit its target. Pretty clear this should resolve to Yes.
5
What will Walz say during CNN interview?
Au-gust
1 month ago
You guys are morons lmao, he said teacher
3
Trump vs. Harris RCP polling margin on Aug 30?
Au-gust
1 month ago
Have any of the 2.5s done the math?
1
Trump vs. Harris RCP polling margin on Aug 30?
Au-gust
1 month ago
Does the new rasmussen get replace the previous one? or will there then be two rasmussens?
0
grappli
1 month ago
I'm guessing they're waiting for Rasmussen to drop before adding the Ipsos poll. But I'm sure they'll add both at some point today
Trump vs. Harris RCP polling margin on Aug 30?
Au-gust
1 month ago
Is there anything on the methodology, which polls are going to be included in the head to head ? not even all of the polls from the period 08/05 to 31st are included.
0
Trump vs. Harris RCP polling margin on Aug 30?
Au-gust
1 month ago
essentially impossible?
0
BayAreaVibes
1 month ago
Is it impossible for Trump to take the lead? That's too pessimistic, isn't it?
Will Russia capture Toretsk before October?
Au-gust
1 month ago
Hmmm i wonder if the russians will just try to take pokrovsk, that would put toretsk in a dangerous salient with only one meaningful supply line
0
Werty1
1 month ago
Natural defense lines and past performaces of the troops in the area.
Will Russia capture Toretsk before October?
Au-gust
1 month ago
Kinda confused about the divergence between this market and Chasiv Yar. Any Yeses care to put their case
0
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?
Au-gust
1 month ago
Bernie precedence and outright denials of endorsement before and after the speech you mention as evidence.
3
Plutos
1 month ago
Bro he held a speech, it doesnt get more official
Will Russia capture Toretsk before October?
Au-gust
1 month ago
Betting on No and heading to the front grindset
4
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
Au-gust
1 month ago
Argument?
0
AusBettor
1 month ago
Harris a lock at this point!
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?
Au-gust
1 month ago
NOs are scammers apparently because RFK's campaign says repeatedly that they have not endorsed Trump, for some very smart people this is enough to qualify as a formal endorsement. PM failed today.
2
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?
Au-gust
1 month ago
https://vote.uma.xyz
1
LMNOP
1 month ago
link?
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?
Au-gust
1 month ago
Now I'm not sure which way it'll resolve, but i don't want it for the money anymore, just to see these smug Yes holders who aren't betting on the rules or the market–but instead the intuition that whales will settle it to keep PM consistent
4
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?
Au-gust
1 month ago
hehehe
0
hillary2win
1 month ago
be more zen
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?
Au-gust
1 month ago
The YES voters failure to make arguments on the merits of the case continues.
2
Justifax
1 month ago
oh no wait, i was wrong UMA is going to ignore its own rules about clarifications and hand over 2M to a bunch of people who thought Michelle Obama was going to be our next president because they bet 50K or so. Lulz. Stop living in lotto land people. This is exactly how you lose it all on prediction markets.
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?
Au-gust
1 month ago
I think everyone deep down knows that this market should not resolve Yes... RFK has clearly not issued a formal endorsement statements that they were not endorsing should be sufficient for that... In addition the fact that the only sources mentioned here are RFK and his campaign... well, as others have said i have no expectations, this is as much a general litmus for PM as it is for this market.
9
·
Liked by XiJinPing, LMNOP and 7 others
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?
Au-gust
1 month ago
Where are you seeing that countdown
0
432
1 month ago
10 minutes
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?
Au-gust
1 month ago
Do all the votes get released then or just some? thanks
1
LMNOP
1 month ago
Good luck boys. https://vote.uma.xyz/ Gonna be a wild f*ing ride!
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?
Au-gust
1 month ago
There is a difference between the Merriam Webster definition of the word endorsement and a formal endorsement are two qualitatively different things. One is just a word, the other carries a host of legal qualifications.
3
LordDCF
1 month ago
Look up the definition of "endorse." I means precisely the same thing as support. Then look at this tweet:
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?
Au-gust
1 month ago
The fact that people aren’t unloading YES…
2
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?
Au-gust
1 month ago
Link please, that’s pretty damning
1
5to5000
1 month ago
RFK today when asked about his "endorsement" on fox:
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?
Au-gust
1 month ago
The article does - moron - but does RFK Jr?
2
FishSlut
1 month ago
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/25/rfk-trump-endorsement-not-revenge-00176282. Hes going to literally go on the campaign trail for him.
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?
Au-gust
1 month ago
“Trump] invited me to form a unity government and we agreed to be able to continue to criticize each other on issues on which we don’t agree,” Kennedy said” no where in the article does it say he has given a formal endorsement, tactical alliance is something different altogether.
8
FishSlut
1 month ago
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/25/rfk-trump-endorsement-not-revenge-00176282. Hes going to literally go on the campaign trail for him.
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?
Au-gust
1 month ago
Luh muh credible market place
4
AugustoPinochet73
1 month ago
The two walles are saying the'll be voting yes, and I think they'll do that because this time Polymarket has made a clarification. Also be carefull because probably first UMA votes will be NO so they can do some inside buying. But really polymarket, you should et ride of UMA, whats the point? Anyways after reading both arguments I'm neutral, just gonna play the "What UMA will decide" game.
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?
Au-gust
1 month ago
If polymarket clarifications count as rules then they are changing the rules ex post. At best is an egregious practice, and at worst is trying to avoid criticism for markets that have already resolved the other way.
1
TimeQuestion
1 month ago
If Polymarket clarifications count as rules, then that is all that matters.
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?
Au-gust
1 month ago
The rules in this market clearly state formal endorsement, who could argue that a formal endorsement has been given after the party in question repeatedly denies giving said endorsement?
2
Au-gust
1 month ago
The campaign have repeatedly come out and said that they are not endorsing the Trump campaign, even after the presser and audience with Trump. PM's context flies in the face of its commitment to decentralized resolution. Adding context defacto changes the rules ex post, completely bad faith procedures.
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?
Au-gust
1 month ago
The campaign have repeatedly come out and said that they are not endorsing the Trump campaign, even after the presser and audience with Trump. PM's context flies in the face of its commitment to decentralized resolution. Adding context defacto changes the rules ex post, completely bad faith procedures.
8
Will Israel invade Lebanon before September?
Au-gust
1 month ago
Still unlikely buddy
1
Slaylorswift
1 month ago
https://x.com/disclosetv/status/1827531221196276112?s=46 Should be 99.9 % yes already
RFK Jr. endorses Trump before November?
Au-gust
1 month ago
RFK campaign has repeatedly said that RFK has not endorsed trump before and after the press conference.
4
Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?
Au-gust
1 month ago
You can debate the facts of the case, but the other markets only resolved because no one disputed them. That could be for any number of reasons. The lack of a dispute, does not prove that RFK withdrew
0
BlueSky123
1 month ago
No holders be like: yeah November and September already resolved yes but this one should resolve no because nobody wasted $1500 disputing it like a retard and [insert linguistic sophistry here].
Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?
Au-gust
1 month ago
Which AI did you get to write this up its got good style
1
BlueSky123
1 month ago
A bet for yes is a bet for truth, reflecting a commitment to honesty and transparency in all aspects. It represents integrity, emphasizing the importance of ethical behavior and consistency in one's principles. It also signifies a belief in progress, embracing change and advancements for personal or collective growth. Cooperation is another key element, highlighting the value of working together and supporting others to achieve common goals. Additionally, a bet for yes is a bet for optimism, maintaining a hopeful and positive outlook towards future possibilities and opportunities. On the other hand, a bet for no is a bet for falsehood, suggesting a willingness to accept or perpetuate dishonesty and deception. It indicates a preference for deceit over transparency, leading to a lack of trust and reliability. It also points to stagnation, a resistance to change or improvement, and an inclination to stay in the current state without pursuing growth. Selfishness is another characteristic, showing a focus on personal gain at the expense of others and a disregard for collective well-being. Lastly, a bet for no is a bet for pessimism, embracing a negative and doubtful view of the future and potential outcomes.
Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?
Au-gust
1 month ago
Nikki Haley told Trump to court her supporters, RFK has given additional context that does not suggest a total withdrawal or endorsement
1
truthteller
1 month ago
nikki haley remained on ballots
Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?
Au-gust
1 month ago
Thanks.
0
truthteller
1 month ago
more, like 3. the timer is wrong
RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?
Au-gust
1 month ago
Specifically Shanahan says that they are going to be 'working with the Trump campaign" qualitatively different than an endorsement...
0
Au-gust
1 month ago
Shanahan just said *again* for the second time that the campaign has not endorsed Trump. - https://x.com/GiggityTitties/status/1827388701481299983
RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?
Au-gust
1 month ago
Shanahan just said *again* for the second time that the campaign has not endorsed Trump. - https://x.com/GiggityTitties/status/1827388701481299983
0
Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?
Au-gust
1 month ago
So the review period will last the full 2 days correct?
1
Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?
Au-gust
1 month ago
What does 'not ending' mean to you?
0
truthteller
1 month ago
he did not say that, he said he wasn't ending his campaign. He literally said he was SUSPENDING his campaign. That's called dropping out
Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?
Au-gust
1 month ago
Dam Shannan just said they didn’t endorse trump … again!
1
Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?
Au-gust
1 month ago
The adding clarification is really irking me. It goes against PM’s resolution system, and looks like they’re trying to cover their ass in case this market resolves to no, since the other markets resolved yes.
2
Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?
Au-gust
1 month ago
Well he has no party to accept the nomination from hes running as an independent.
0
bko
1 month ago
I don't think you should consider it a technicality. He did not say don’t vote for me, he said thank you for supporting me in this campaign, but don’t worry about coming to work tomorrow. If he didn’t want to get elected he might have said something like "I shall not seek, and I will not accept, the nomination of my party for your president".
Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?
Au-gust
1 month ago
It's pretty clear that RFK has effectively dropped out of any serious contention for the WH... but the rules state : "his withdrawal or is confirmed to have withdrawn from the 2024 US presidential race by 11:59 PM ET on August 23, 2024". RFK has clearly not withdrawn from the race. Sure the case for 'No' is a technicality, but that doesn't change the fact that they have not been met. The rules have to be more specific in the future, setting clear and verifiable metrics... and no ex post 'clarifications'....
5
Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?
Au-gust
1 month ago
Thats great !! Ambiguity about the outcome of an event? Just change the rules ex post!
0
VibesGreaterRules
1 month ago
If the polymarket clarification counts as a rule, and many people think it does, it no longer matters whether RFK dropped out as the rules have been changed to Yes. Polymarket might have made a mistake to do this - but if you want to overturn Polymarket's ability to clarify the rules... you are going for a longshot as this has not been done before. Typically I'd expect UMA to vote 99.9% for clarification.
Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?
Au-gust
1 month ago
Agree that it is muddy, but he specifically mentioned the chance that could become president during the conference "And if enough of you do vote for me, and neither of the major party candidates win 270 votes, which is quite possible, in fact, today our polling shows them tying at 269, and I could conceivably still end up in the White House in a contention election."
3
RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?
Au-gust
2 months ago
Where is that im on the discord
1
PoLOLitics
2 months ago
Someone in the UMA discord for proposal #08118 said that Polymarket's source wasn't from the speech so it should resolve no....interesting....
RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?
Au-gust
2 months ago
All the Yes arguements in the comments are just vibes, the rules were not met technically, there have to be standards.
13
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Liked by IWillRetur..., TheWolfOfP... and 11 others
RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?
Au-gust
2 months ago
They should just have the few top holders on each side present their case to Chat gpt
0
asdf4
2 months ago
i've heard someone say all of it, but not sure if that's true
RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?
Au-gust
2 months ago
How much of the bond can you lose in dispute if it doesn't go your way?
0
RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?
Au-gust
2 months ago
"“Mr. Kennedy has not endorsed President Trump,” said spokesperson Stefanie Spear. “The filing was made by an attorney and not reviewed by the campaign.” She said the filing would be updated." If he did endorse him why is there a need to update the court filing to *correct* what the lawyer wrote?
0
fundamentalmisunderstanding
2 months ago
I was by far the largest 'N' on the Bernie formal endorsement market. The biggest difference between the two markets is the 'formal' part. Basically everybody agreed Bernie endorsed but it didn't meet the level of a formal endorsement. The only requirement here is an 'endorsement', which he clearly gave by saying that he is 'throwing his support to President Trump'. There was basically no news regarding the Bernie endorsement and far more articles/reporters saying it wasn't a formal endorsement whereas there's basically a consensus here that RFK did endorse. Finally, as far as I can tell RFK's press secretary claimed he didn't endorse BEFORE the press conference. So it doesn't affect the endorsement he gave afterwards.
RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?
Au-gust
2 months ago
Which context lol
0
0xE42c9d2ef
2 months ago
nevermind its back
RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?
Au-gust
2 months ago
The other RFK markets too...
0
aaaaadz
2 months ago
Wtf happened to the order book?
RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?
Au-gust
2 months ago
Polymarket really ought to hire a couple of people to adjudicate markets like this... the rules have clearly not been met.
4
RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?
Au-gust
2 months ago
As I understand its a democracy basically. If you have 750 USDC to post as a deposit you can dispute one way or another
0
ThatGuyMaybe
2 months ago
how do these disputes even work? Who is deciding?
RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?
Au-gust
2 months ago
Doesn't look like it
1
FyouMoneyOTW
2 months ago
Did anyone submit new dispute??
RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?
Au-gust
2 months ago
"The resolution source for this market will be live footage of the address or official information from RFK Jr. and his campaign" if the supposed party that has to issue an endorsement says it isn't an endorsement?
3
MOA
2 months ago
The criteria literally lists the word "support"
RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?
Au-gust
2 months ago
Man they said *verbatim* that it was not an endorsement, he even encouraged people to vote for him lmao
4
RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?
Au-gust
2 months ago
I guess because yeses are trading higher that the proposition is for the Yes?
1
RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?
Au-gust
2 months ago
Its true I'm the goat
2
Wrong19B4rullingEthereumETF
2 months ago
Rich people dispute please. I need to feed my family. My goat got stolen by the neighbour, and he said he will also steal my wife.
RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?
Au-gust
2 months ago
How long should dispute last?
0
RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?
Au-gust
2 months ago
Campaign said it isn't an endorsement, obv trump is going to say it is, but it isn't cut and dry.
4
JohnathanDoe
2 months ago
Notice how the net PNL of yes holders is massivley larger than no holders, aswell there $17K liq in yes $1K liq in no. All media and donald trump jr is saying its an endorsement. but you guys think you deserve a 5X, how cute!
RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?
Au-gust
2 months ago
Its convoluted sure... but if the campaign literally says they are not endoring verbatim ?
1
0x94430aD093f9d6BB524D1C6758a9FE5f11AeF767-1723079893160
2 months ago
Look again. It says backing Trump
RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?
Au-gust
2 months ago
“Mr. Kennedy has not endorsed President Trump,,” said spokesperson Stefanie Spear. “The filing was made by an attorney and not reviewed by the campaign.” She said the filing would be updated. - https://apnews.com/article/rfk-jr-trump-speech-arizona-a2638f89ddcb5de03edbe4574ca17d45
4
RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?
Au-gust
2 months ago
To the dispure I suppose
2
RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?
Au-gust
2 months ago
HES KILLING ME
2
RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?
Au-gust
2 months ago
This the question
0
0x0eb0C121C7daf0dEAd73038f39308e78f1B1F37A-1720031521708
2 months ago
He said he supports Trump, does that count? Or does he have to say endorse?
RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?
Au-gust
2 months ago
lmfao
0
Mass arrests at DNC?
Au-gust
2 months ago
Are they protesting the DNC or Israel? They were at the Israeli consulate... Not the DNC
0
satoshi sir
2 months ago
People are actually getting arrested while protesting the DNC and no holders be like "meh they were a few blocks away"
Iran military response by Friday?
Au-gust
2 months ago
Why did you up your bet lmao
1
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before September?
Au-gust
2 months ago
Bro your on the wrong side again lol
0
Justifax
2 months ago
Take this with a grain of salt, though 250K followers. BREAKING: Qatar requested Iran postpone its attack on Israel for ceasefire talks. Iran reportedly rejected Qatar's request. https://x.com/GlobeEyeNews/status/1824451528499007698
Iran military response by Friday?
Au-gust
2 months ago
Neither probably, only Netanyahu wants a war, Israeli negotiators don't and neither do the Egyptian/Qatari. Both trying to drag out the process to stop an iranian attack.
0
XiJinPing
2 months ago
Talks in Doha ended super early today... either very good, or very bad...
Iran military response by Friday?
Au-gust
2 months ago
Talks in Doha conclude according to Qatari PM.
0
Iran military response by Friday?
Au-gust
2 months ago
Nope
0
DiversifyYoBonds
2 months ago
I forgot do things happen
Iran military response by Friday?
Au-gust
2 months ago
Not a negotiating tactic just reality, Iran doesn’t want war but if it can’t get a ceasefire it has to show its teeth or lose credibility.
1
Justifax
2 months ago
It's real, https://x.com/BarakRavid/status/1824086714639417487 though could be the US using Iran as a negotiating tactic, which is weird but possible I suppose.
Iran military response by Friday?
Au-gust
2 months ago
Ok… let’s be real the chance of an attack in the next two days is low… hostage nego as we speak in Doha. Even if nothing comes of them it will take time…
0
Justifax
2 months ago
It's the opposite, actually. I'm too risk averse.
Iran military response by Friday?
Au-gust
2 months ago
Copium**
0
Au-gust
2 months ago
Yes cheap, likelihood of spike in price till friday: high, likelihood of attack by friday: moderate-low, price of ceasefire hedge? : Low.
Iran military response by Friday?
Au-gust
2 months ago
Yes cheap, likelihood of spike in price till friday: high, likelihood of attack by friday: moderate-low, price of ceasefire hedge? : Low.
2
Iran military response by Friday?
Au-gust
2 months ago
If negotiations fail, this is likely, Iran won't want to appear as if they are ruining negotiations (they don't want a larger war) but if netanyahu successfully prevents a deal, then Iran will look better when they attack.
0
XiJinPing
2 months ago
No way Netanyahu will compromise and agree to fully withdraw from Gaza (which is the only way Hamas agrees). Negotiations will fail Thursday, then Iran will attack Thursday night / Friday.
Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in…?
Au-gust
2 months ago
It will be a "Yes" if there is a ceasefire.
0
JeffreyBezos
2 months ago
is this an an opposite market? This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is no official ceasefire agreement... so if you buy the Yes market you are betting on No ceasfire, and if you buy the NO you are betting that there WIll be a ceasfire? is this correct or am i understanding it wrong
Iran military response by Friday?
Au-gust
2 months ago
Netanyahu does not want a deal. Most important sticking point in any ceasefire negotiation.
1
n/a
2 months ago
Ceasefire negotiation just broke down - Hamas' representative in Lebanon said Tuesday that the group will not send a delegation to this week's round of cease-fire talks on Thursday, the New York Times reported.
Iran military response by Friday?
Au-gust
2 months ago
What happened to your nos bro lol
0
XiJinPing
2 months ago
damn so ceasefire is a very distant possibility...
Iran military response by Friday?
Au-gust
2 months ago
Mostly likely, the outcome from all this sabre rattling will either be a ceasefire or an Iranian strike. If iran can't pressure a ceasefire, it will have to attack. After the supreme leader and weeks of statements, iran would look utterly feckless and weak.
0
Iran military response by Monday?
Au-gust
2 months ago
Reported.
0
n/a
2 months ago
BREAKING: Iran begins attack on Israel, launching dozens of drones that’ll take hours to arrive
Iran military response by Monday?
Au-gust
2 months ago
There she goesss, sorry yes's
0
Iran military response by Monday?
Au-gust
2 months ago
Lol i can see that, I was yes but i think tn is a nothing burger
1
skrtttttttttt
2 months ago
lmao august ur not wrong but it sounds like copium when ur holding 400 nos
Iran military response by Monday?
Au-gust
2 months ago
Sure, Iranian forces are prepared now for strikes, but Hezbollah is supposed to attack first. And Israel intends to strike pre-emptively if they believe an attack is iminent. They'll be more concrete signs of an impending attack before it really happens.
0
ArtVandalay
2 months ago
There is plenty to suggest.
Iran military response by Monday?
Au-gust
2 months ago
Lmao bro its not coming tonight, its coming but not tonight. And i have you to thank for pumping yes lmao, imo i got a cheap no
1
martingale
2 months ago
You bought no at a too high price and are trying to pump it …
Iran military response by Monday?
Au-gust
2 months ago
Don't forget, Iranian leaders do not want a war. They will try to create maximum pressure without fighting if possible. Stretch out the wait for their attack is a tactic in of itself.
1
Iran military response by Monday?
Au-gust
2 months ago
Good work man.
0
NowItsMyTime
2 months ago
"Was the first time I did bet in this market. Im 3% profitable. I know what Im doing." Know I selled with profit :)
Iran military response by Monday?
Au-gust
2 months ago
nothing really to suggest it will be tonight ... pure speculation aside from the fact that Iran has probably decided to carry out *an* attack
2
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before September?
Au-gust
2 months ago
Hamas will not send representatives to the Aug 15th meeting
0
Iran military response by Monday?
Au-gust
2 months ago
https://t.co/rCwx4g9DtP
0
Au-gust
2 months ago
Iran says top priority is Gaza ceasefire and well not derail efforts, Americans, Qatar, and Egypt proposed Aug 15th for further discussions, Israel will send a delegation.
Iran military response by Monday?
Au-gust
2 months ago
Iran says top priority is Gaza ceasefire and well not derail efforts, Americans, Qatar, and Egypt proposed Aug 15th for further discussions, Israel will send a delegation.
0
Iran military response by Monday?
Au-gust
2 months ago
Doesn't preclude a "'Non' Devastating Attack"
0
IWillReturn
2 months ago
The US has warned Iran that it could suffer a devastating blow if it launches a major attack on Israel, The Wall Street Journal reports, citing an unnamed US official. The warning has been conveyed to Tehran both directly and through intermediaries, the US official says without elaborating.
Iran military response by Monday?
Au-gust
2 months ago
lmaooo
1
martingale
2 months ago
will you buy 150 No at 58 cents, please my family is starving
Iran military response by Friday?
Au-gust
2 months ago
Yea, tend to agree, Israel also said they've decided to alert people if an attack is imminent. So another nothing burger tn
2
dcue86
2 months ago
it's still too soon they need more time to prepare for an Israeli response.
Iran military response by Friday?
Au-gust
2 months ago
This is also true.
2
ArtVandalay
2 months ago
Nothing ever happens
Iran military response by Friday?
Au-gust
2 months ago
UK Just issued a NOTAM as well now.
3
Israel military action against Iran in August?
Au-gust
2 months ago
Egypt airlines cancelled flights before 1973 war... and the 2020 attacks on al-Assad airbase...
0
Democratic VP nominee?
Au-gust
2 months ago
also the murder coverup, sex scandal, union beef, tbh the perfect democratic candidate lmao (I'm not a republican)
0
1PrecentRicher
2 months ago
Josh Shapiro was cancelled after his stand on Israel and Palestine came out yesterday. What a fall
Democratic VP nominee?
Au-gust
2 months ago
lmao
0
winbet
2 months ago
Its not over yet
Iran military response by Tuesday?
Au-gust
2 months ago
Kurilla in Israel as well
1
Donkov
2 months ago
Shoigu visiting Iran today. Dont think its tonight, bois https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-05/putin-s-security-council-chief-visits-iran-amid-mideast-tensions?utm_source=google&utm_medium=bd&cmpId=google
Iran military response by Sunday?
Au-gust
2 months ago
Cyber doesn’t count
1
SmartG
2 months ago
how to confirm cyber attacks?
Iran military response by Sunday?
Au-gust
2 months ago
I think the suggestion is that the attack must arrive within Israel by the deadline, as it states on Israeli airspace, etc.
0
dcue86
2 months ago
So by "initiate" do they just have to launch by the deadline?
Iran military response by Sunday?
Au-gust
2 months ago
There is a strong incentive to deceive and sow panic by gives false starts to make the defenders jittery... some response is still all but guaranteed.
1
matic1
2 months ago
If Iran had made a move, it would have done it last time, and it would not have dragged on until now. The country has been infiltrated into a sieve by the Americans.
Iran military response by Sunday?
Au-gust
2 months ago
There is none - made up...
5
n/a
2 months ago
Source??
Iran military response by Friday?
Au-gust
2 months ago
Point being its to late for cheap/slow shaheds to launch. To make their attack potent theyll want fast and slow projectiles to hit at the same time... hence the unlikeliness.
1
Au-gust
2 months ago
They could... but it would likely have to be pretty weak, because the slow drones will take to long. They could send BMs but theyll want to use cheap shaheds to soak up iron dome defenses.
Iran military response by Friday?
Au-gust
2 months ago
They could... but it would likely have to be pretty weak, because the slow drones will take to long. They could send BMs but theyll want to use cheap shaheds to soak up iron dome defenses.
0
0x0085EC21a8b14Adbe19785241e1a4831189465D0-1720113791043
2 months ago
Is there really a 5% chance they will attack at like 3am over there in the next 3.5 hours?
Iran military response by Friday?
Au-gust
2 months ago
Iranian drones will take too long to arrive at this point ... takes 8-9 hours for them to arrive.
2
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
Au-gust
2 months ago
Markets pricing in a "70% chance of the Fed cutting by 50 bps in September" - https://x.com/TheStalwart/status/1819355060792443207
1
Israel military action against Iran by end of 2024?
Au-gust
2 months ago
Israel PM Netanyahu says “we launched strikes on 3 fronts during the past days” Israeli PM is speaking now.
1
Israel military action against Iran by end of 2024?
Au-gust
2 months ago
The rules state 'For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by Israel on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory.' Your distinction between covert and military is an arbitrary one.
3
dreamer
2 months ago
A covert operation is not a military action on another country. Especially if the assumed perpetrator is not claiming the act.
Israel military action against Iran by end of 2024?
Au-gust
2 months ago
It seems that the market should be resolved... "officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. " Can anyone tell me that there is not a consensus of credible reporting?
1
Israel military action against Iran by end of 2024?
Au-gust
2 months ago
"officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting "
1
dreamer
2 months ago
Yeah, at best that is a covert operation and getting Israel to claim responsibility is going to be impossible.
Will Israel invade Lebanon before September?
Au-gust
2 months ago
"Hezbollah leadership claim's attack failed to kill any senior leadership" https://x.com/IntelDoge/status/1818337347400089626
0
Will Israel invade Lebanon before September?
Au-gust
2 months ago
There are two seperate links there.
0
0xa365E32c8590cc1Be5D38149b96c843B72A17166-1722190956056
2 months ago
Source link doesnt work do you have another one
Will Israel invade Lebanon before September?
Au-gust
2 months ago
" Medical volunteers for Israel have just put out an urgent call for general surgeons, thoracic surgeons, trauma surgeons, and anesthesiologists to help staff Israel's Northern hospitals. If that's you, can DM me for details and I'll put you in touch. " https://x.com/YoniFreedhoff/status/1817607374787564027
1
Will Israel invade Lebanon before September?
Au-gust
2 months ago
https://x.com/IntelCrab/status/1817619699745632743 , https://x.com/cvetko35/status/1817619075868082445
0
SaltyPizza
2 months ago
Source?
Will Israel invade Lebanon before September?
Au-gust
2 months ago
More Merkava's moving to the border
1