#685
Rank
21
Comments
15
Likes Received
176
Likes Given
Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?
CUTNPASTE
1 month ago
Not a trump fan but too many people are trading this as if it's directly dependent on what happened in the debate vs an otm option with 1 dte.
2
aenews2
1 month ago
Where are the Trump fans?
Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?
CUTNPASTE
1 month ago
This should be trading closer to 50/50 imo, I definitely oversized initially though.
1
Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?
CUTNPASTE
1 month ago
I can see why you are down 8.5k, glad I'm on the opposite side for this one
0
DeucePapi
1 month ago
So this market actually means, which candidate's percentage chance of winning will increase more day over day by tomorrow?
Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?
CUTNPASTE
1 month ago
Trump would win then you spastic
1
DeucePapi
1 month ago
So this market actually means, which candidate's percentage chance of winning will increase more day over day by tomorrow?
Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?
CUTNPASTE
1 month ago
lol I made 1k off the other market with identical rules to this, if you think this one is about gain you should sell
0
DeucePapi
1 month ago
So this market actually means, which candidate's percentage chance of winning will increase more day over day by tomorrow?
Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?
CUTNPASTE
1 month ago
No, it's who will be ahead for a 4 hour window. Even if Kamala gains 5 points post debate if her odds are still lower than trumps she loses.
3
DeucePapi
1 month ago
So this market actually means, which candidate's percentage chance of winning will increase more day over day by tomorrow?
Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?
CUTNPASTE
1 month ago
If you think current lead is irrelevant I have some otm options to sell you
0
432
1 month ago
read the rules.His current lead is irrelevant
Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?
CUTNPASTE
1 month ago
Wheres the manifold whale at, lost all his money after the last one of these markets?
5
Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?
CUTNPASTE
1 month ago
He's managed to make his account negative from +40k which is an impressive feat. Looking at the rest of his trades they all look decent, just oversized in this for some reason.
0
Justifax
1 month ago
ManifoldWhale - Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday? Kamala 251,762 shares 17¢ 2¢ $4,783.47 -$38,704.57 (-89.00%) lulz. Probably just some wash trading troll to make manifold look bad but still. Pretty retarded.
Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?
CUTNPASTE
1 month ago
ManifoldWhaleBlowsUpOnPolymarket
7
'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' Opening Weekend Box Office
CUTNPASTE
1 month ago
Just think about it if you were warner- would you rather estimate low and get a positive surprise or estimate high and risk telling all your investors that you shat the bed?
0
TimeTraveler
1 month ago
''Broken out, that’s $100M-$110M, per various tracking and exhibition bean counters, with around $35M from 69 offshore markets (a 75% international footprint). The last big opening of this magnitude stateside in September was New Line’s It, with $123.4M domestic in 2017. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice presales, I understand, are ahead of Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, which turned in a 3-day of $118.4M. Given further boost to audiences’ appetite for this classic is the addition of Wednesday megastar Jenna Ortega to the original cast, which also includes Winona Ryder and Catherine O’Hara. It’s no wonder why first choice and unaided awareness is strong overall with women. Warners believes the opening is at $80M domestic.'' You're leaving out the part where Warners itself is thinking of 80 million domestic.
Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?
CUTNPASTE
1 month ago
At this stage any remaining equity in Kamala shares is literally hoping for market manipulation shenanigans
2
Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?
CUTNPASTE
1 month ago
Banging the close is a well established phenomenon in much more liquid markets where they actually have some form of market manipulation rules. Only 400k to move Kamala to 50c currently. And you should be able to sell most of your position back for only 3-4c lost per share. So just quick math- if you would only lose 20kish moving the market you only need about 5k shares at current prices to break even doing this manipulation. I am obviously holding trump here but the scenario isn't unrealistic, I believe with no manipulation the current fair price should be below 10c.
1
rozi
1 month ago
Are you trying to push the price down with this comment to buy more? ;)
Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?
CUTNPASTE
1 month ago
The worst part is the lower the price gets the more incentive there is to rig the market.
2
YatSen
1 month ago
Someone accumulated 100k kamala shares, I don't know if he is ready to rig.
Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?
CUTNPASTE
1 month ago
Can't wait to see this one get manipulated!
4
Ukraine hits Moscow by Sept 30?
CUTNPASTE
1 month ago
If that isn't a confirmation then idk what is
1
n/a
1 month ago
https://x.com/JimmySecUK/status/1830141465109885419 This is the best vid of refinery attack. Super clear hit, definitely not a crash.
What will Walz say during CNN interview?
CUTNPASTE
1 month ago
The vote has already happened, now they are just in the real phase
0
TheWolfOfPolymarket
1 month ago
What are the odds that UMA whales buy a huge amount of No shares and resolve it to No.. You could make almost a couple of millions that way. Is there anything to prevent this from happening? Obviously it should resolve to Yes but it still makes me pause before buying Yes at 99.9
What will Walz say during CNN interview?
CUTNPASTE
1 month ago
Keep lighting money on fire and see if that gets you out of the -25k hole you are in
2
RFKALLDAY
1 month ago
All the YES share buyers wagering 5-6 figures to win $200 deserve to learn a valuable lesson about Risk / Reward Ratio.
Trump vs. Harris RCP polling margin on Aug 30?
CUTNPASTE
1 month ago
Someone propose please, I need this money to feed my family
2
Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl?
CUTNPASTE
2 months ago
Your math sucks bro. 50% of winning 6600 (not 10k lol) and 50% chance of losing 3300 is 1600ish ev. So selling at 50:50 for 1660 profit is the same ev as holding until the event happens with less variance.
1
ExpectValue
2 months ago
Well you own 10K shares at 33c Average. 50% chance they go to 0c so you are down $3,300 USD. 50% Chance they go to 100c so you are up $10k. The position has an Expected Value of +$1,650. EV = (Win % x Win $) - (Lose % x Lose $)
2024 July hottest on record?
CUTNPASTE
2 months ago
Generally the wider the spread indicates more uncertainty/less liquidity in the market. I feel like any market makers for this don't want to put more aggressive resting orders into the book and run the risk of somebody with a good model sniping them, so the spread had widened as a result.
1
idfkanything
2 months ago
Why is there a 5 cent disparity between the buy and sell price? I'm holding, but I am new to polymarket and was curious why the gap is so big.