#191
Rank
175
Comments
70
Likes Received
316
Likes Given
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
Speculo
4 days ago
J.V you should cool your head off bro...
1
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
Speculo
4 days ago
to switch to 1-1,4 if I am right.
0
Szty1
4 days ago
You're right, they probably don't. It comes down to Emerson then. If it's a tie or Trump above, we're at 1-1.4. Dropping at 6 am.
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
Speculo
4 days ago
Don't forget Rasmussen which is Tie today. It has to be +1 Trump.
0
Szty1
4 days ago
You're right, they probably don't. It comes down to Emerson then. If it's a tie or Trump above, we're at 1-1.4. Dropping at 6 am.
Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?
Speculo
5 days ago
Who are these insiders?
3
Adishon
5 days ago
Insiders say no… so what is even the point?
Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?
Speculo
5 days ago
I can't believe I am still intoxicated by this kind of dude. I am so bad at this.
1
EdgyUsername
5 days ago
reported you
Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?
Speculo
5 days ago
source?
0
phantom7-
5 days ago
Just saw a leak that Kamala is going on the podcast this week!!!
Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?
Speculo
5 days ago
I have literally already voted for her and voted YES.
0
Slade366 - 15686
5 days ago
I've noticed only Harris haters are buying Yes. Harris lovers are buying NO because they want Democrats to not lose any more support in downballot house and Senate races
Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?
Speculo
6 days ago
why does it seem so far-fetched that a politician, aiming for the most important job in the world, might go on the country’s most popular show to sway a few independent voters, especially if she’s falling behind?
1
Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?
Speculo
6 days ago
he doesn't know a shit, like everyone of us... Only gut feeling here.
2
Hugor21
6 days ago
and he also indirectly says its not gonna happen probably 😭
Israel Military response against Iran when?
Speculo
6 days ago
why is that?
2
Alyosya
6 days ago
It’s guaranteed to happen within days.
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
Speculo
6 days ago
They will replace it if tomorrow it's +2 :)
0
Szty1
6 days ago
TIPP tracking poll ticked up to +4 Harris. Will they replace the old I&I/TIPP with this?
Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?
Speculo
6 days ago
I am very (too much) conservative here stating that DMZ could be considered as neutral. It is actually part of Syria as far as international law is concerned, and recognised as such by Israel and the US. The limitation is that neither army can military operations in this area.
0
Gerdii
1 week ago
If the AI is saying invasion into previously unheld territory, what exactly does golan heights mean?
Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?
Speculo
6 days ago
https://today.lorientlejour.com/article/1431436/israels-demining-near-occupied-golan-signals-wider-front-against-hezbollah-sources-say.html "While demining activity has been reported, sources who spoke to Reuters - including a Syrian soldier stationed in south Syria, a Lebanese security official and a U.N. peacekeeping official — revealed additional unreported details that showed Israel was moving the fence separating the DMZ towards the Syrian side and digging more fortifications in the area."
0
Speculo
6 days ago
Be cautious about placing too much trust in that AI. It has stated in the past that some markets are already resolved whereas they were not, but UMA does not consider its “opinions.” In this context, the Golan Heights refers to the area occupied by Israel since 1967 and formally annexed in 1981—a move not recognized by any country except the United States. There exists a demilitarized zone (DMZ) between Syria and Israel, which is could be viewed as neutral territory. East of the DMZ lies Syrian territory, recognized as such by all nations, including Israel. Recent reports, including one from Reuters just yesterday, indicate that Israel has moved the DMZ fence toward the Syrian side. This suggests a potential military offensive aimed at establishing control. I hope to see confirmation from UN sources, Syria, or Israel regarding the fence's relocation, and I'll be watching to see how the situation develops.
Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?
Speculo
6 days ago
Be cautious about placing too much trust in that AI. It has stated in the past that some markets are already resolved whereas they were not, but UMA does not consider its “opinions.” In this context, the Golan Heights refers to the area occupied by Israel since 1967 and formally annexed in 1981—a move not recognized by any country except the United States. There exists a demilitarized zone (DMZ) between Syria and Israel, which is could be viewed as neutral territory. East of the DMZ lies Syrian territory, recognized as such by all nations, including Israel. Recent reports, including one from Reuters just yesterday, indicate that Israel has moved the DMZ fence toward the Syrian side. This suggests a potential military offensive aimed at establishing control. I hope to see confirmation from UN sources, Syria, or Israel regarding the fence's relocation, and I'll be watching to see how the situation develops.
1
Gerdii
1 week ago
If the AI is saying invasion into previously unheld territory, what exactly does golan heights mean?
Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?
Speculo
6 days ago
you sound pissed off dude, relax there is no reason to be angry.
1
getgood
6 days ago
How delusional are the "Yes" holders? Kamala did 2 hours with CNN and then her team was mad when CNN put out 27 mins of it. They wanted to edit it down to 18 mins. Even the "tough" 60 Minutes interview was multiple hours over the course of multiple weeks edited down to less than 20 minutes. In what world does she decide to do 2+ hours with Joe Rogan? If she wouldn't allow CNN or CBS to put out an unedited interview, why would she let Joe Rogan?
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
Speculo
6 days ago
Lol chad what the f**** are you doing here?
0
Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?
Speculo
6 days ago
She is doing a Fox News interview tonight with no editing...
3
getgood
6 days ago
He's not picking sides if Kamala declines and Trump doesn't. Trump will come on with no caveats. I doubt Kamala will do the same. She can't even do an unedited CNN interview, why would she start with Joe Rogan?
Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?
Speculo
6 days ago
Plus, her interview on Fox News tonight won’t be edited, which demonstrates that she understands the gravity of the situation. She’s willing to take risks, and honestly, she has very little to lose at this point.
0
getgood
6 days ago
How delusional are the "Yes" holders? Kamala did 2 hours with CNN and then her team was mad when CNN put out 27 mins of it. They wanted to edit it down to 18 mins. Even the "tough" 60 Minutes interview was multiple hours over the course of multiple weeks edited down to less than 20 minutes. In what world does she decide to do 2+ hours with Joe Rogan? If she wouldn't allow CNN or CBS to put out an unedited interview, why would she let Joe Rogan?
Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?
Speculo
6 days ago
This is an ongoing situation, so it’s essential for everyone to remain humble. Why should she consider accepting Joe's request? Because she's falling behind in every swing state. She’s already at a disadvantage, and while she may not be the most charismatic or clever politician, she is clear-headed. To turn things around, she needs to appeal to male voters, especially those who tune into Joe's podcast.
1
getgood
6 days ago
How delusional are the "Yes" holders? Kamala did 2 hours with CNN and then her team was mad when CNN put out 27 mins of it. They wanted to edit it down to 18 mins. Even the "tough" 60 Minutes interview was multiple hours over the course of multiple weeks edited down to less than 20 minutes. In what world does she decide to do 2+ hours with Joe Rogan? If she wouldn't allow CNN or CBS to put out an unedited interview, why would she let Joe Rogan?
Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?
Speculo
6 days ago
It's a big opportunity because if he host the two presidential candidates he will arguably play in the same court that ABC News and CNN which hosted a presidential debates. He will be the first podcaster to do it. That would be massive for his brand. Of course Trump is already a big prize, but having the two candidates would be even bigger.
1
getgood
6 days ago
how is Kamala a big opportunity? He's getting Trump and he's undeniably the most wanted guest by the audience of the past decade, most likely ever.
Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?
Speculo
1 week ago
She is going. Because she's already losing. There is no downside, she's losing in all swings. So if she does nothing: she loses. If she goes to Joe. Maybe she will convince a couple of independent voters. That's my humble take.
4
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
Speculo
1 week ago
happy to proven wrong I have litteraly invested $1 in this
0
de5nuts
1 week ago
that is actually the worst point I've seen on here lmao, a coin is a coin and it was deployed in every sense of the word
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
Speculo
1 week ago
from what I see on the platform you collateralize other coins (like USDC, USDT, USDC) and they basically book future $WLFI coins. Am I wrong ? If yes, where is the link to check the WLFI blockchain and check the transaction?
0
de5nuts
1 week ago
that is actually the worst point I've seen on here lmao, a coin is a coin and it was deployed in every sense of the word
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
Speculo
1 week ago
The issue here is that the two whales guys at UMA are real crypto addicts. They know what a coin is and isn't (not like me). Therefore there is a real chance that they say: not this is a shitcoin, not a real coin. Too early.
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Kobafix
1 week ago
People thinking that the chances of uma voting no is 5 % is crazy
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
Speculo
1 week ago
no, it's a lending platform, where you collateralize actual coins (USDC, ETH) in exchange for the right to own a $WLFI when this will exist. If it does lol.
0
Amok
1 week ago
It's not even a coin. A coin operates on its own blockchain.
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
Speculo
1 week ago
Hi Yes holder, I have no skin in the game, but according to you, what does the phrase: None of Donald J. Trump, any of his family members or any director, officer, employee or principal of the Trump Organization, DT Marks DEFI LLC or any of their respective directors, officers, employees, affiliates or principals is an officer, director, founder, or employee of, or manager, owner or operator of Word Liberty Financial or its affiliates or the WLF Platform. $WLFI tokens and use of the World Liberty Financial platform are offered and sold solely by World Liberty Financial or its affiliates means ? For me, it very clearly states that DJT is not involved.
6
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
Speculo
1 week ago
No because it is at +1 not +3.
1
Szty1
1 week ago
They'll drop Pew tomorrow and it's back to 1.5
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
Speculo
1 week ago
Oh!!! What a surprise... Siena Poll was dropped ! Who would have guessed that from RCP??
1
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
Speculo
1 week ago
again...
0
Frozencomet
1 week ago
its crazy that things are priced like its sitting at 1.5 right now, if it goes up even 0.1 i bet yall will change your minds real quick
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
Speculo
1 week ago
don't gamble here
0
actors
1 week ago
who wanna advice?
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
Speculo
1 week ago
If I am perfectly honest this seems clears. There are trying to tell he is involved whereas he is not, to scam MAGA people and make them buy this shitcoin. So this market is about the difference between perception and reality.
0
KingKush0172
1 week ago
not a part of the team, explicity states that he's an affiliate and not within the LLC deploying
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
Speculo
1 week ago
I am checking the website... The crypto is inspired by Donald Trump. He is Chief Crypto Advisor, part of the team. A lot of good argument for boths parties. Let the shitshow begin !
0
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
Speculo
1 week ago
Agreed, but it's fair to say that the Siena +3 is at risk of planned obsolescence ;)
0
Frozencomet
1 week ago
its crazy that things are priced like its sitting at 1.5 right now, if it goes up even 0.1 i bet yall will change your minds real quick
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
Speculo
1 week ago
I don’t know a thing about crypto, and I couldn’t care less if something’s a token or not. Therefore, this seems like the perfect spot to gamble.
7
Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?
Speculo
1 week ago
https://x.com/Hodannat/status/1845844787972247923
0
Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?
Speculo
1 week ago
https://x.com/NoonPost/status/1845848443283026245
0
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
Speculo
1 week ago
That's true :) but in the long run, I believe this will be more stable than most people expect. Although, I’ll likely be proven wrong this time.
0
Meow.Zedong
1 week ago
She dropped 0.5 in 1 week.
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
Speculo
1 week ago
Unpopular opinion: The best predictor of the final bracket is the one whose midpoint is closest to the current RCP average.
1
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
Speculo
1 week ago
you are right. Odds for 1-1,4 are 42%, and odds 2-2,4 are 7, so 6X. Of course there is a momentum, but that is not consistent with the fact that both brackets are almost equidistant. Again, imho.
0
Frozencomet
1 week ago
nooooo, stop bringing the price of 2-2.4 back up to reasonable levels, i was getting it so cheap
Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?
Speculo
1 week ago
Can you please stop doing this
0
NIGGA
1 week ago
Omg! zionists!!
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
Speculo
1 week ago
take into account that there is no liquidity. Once the 300 shares at 36c wall is broken, next steps is 22c. This market are hard to gauge.
0
SDfasadsfadsfads
1 week ago
I agree 12% was undervalued and am kicking myself for not jumping on that. That said based upon Trump doing his best polling this time of year I’m bullish on Harris’ lead dropping a point (which falls in historical trends)
Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?
Speculo
1 week ago
Poly should issue a clarification before it becomes contraversial. Is the DMZ part of Syria. If yes, if Israel tries to annex it, does it count like an invasion?
0
Gex
1 week ago
"For the purposes of this market, the Golan Heights count as Israeli territory."
Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?
Speculo
1 week ago
Let's promise ourselves not to turn this market into a revival of the Invade Lebanon one.
0
NIGGA
1 week ago
Holy fuck it's actually happening!!
Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?
Speculo
1 week ago
More information is required from MSM, Syrian news agency won't be enough. But if credible reporting confirm that the Israeli army entered Syria and moved the fence 500m (basically to annex a part of the territory), that could pass the bar.
0
BigBazoo
1 week ago
Heard there were tanks in Syria and they held a small area. But what will UMA say
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
Speculo
1 week ago
There is an ABC News poll coming, normally good for Harris. But imho, 40 is as much overvalued ad 12 was undervalued. This market is a paradise for swing trading :)
1
Frozencomet
1 week ago
I have no idea why 2-2.4 went from 12 to 40 in 1 day when the avg didnt change
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
Speculo
1 week ago
I dont get what you mean, but I can tell you one thing: it's 100% luck, it a roulette based on RCP (with a little extra weight towards Trump on Thursday, but not so much if we are perfectly honest).
1
SDfasadsfadsfads
1 week ago
In the last two presidential elections, on RCP he gained +1 (Clinton) and 1.3 (Biden). If you bet on this historical trend 0.5-0.9 is your bet.
Tim Walz replaced as Democratic VP nominee?
Speculo
1 week ago
Buy the rumours, sell the facts ;)
0
Erasmus
1 week ago
Come on, folks
Kamala Harris 538 odds >55% on Friday?
Speculo
1 week ago
Man this is so close.
0
Kamala Silver Bulletin odds >55% Friday?
Speculo
1 week ago
it's not over yet
0
schottchris
1 week ago
this one was EASY money. anybody got any tips on the next easy one? thanks
European Central Bank cuts rates in Oct meeting?
Speculo
1 week ago
Don't you think that when Lagarde, the boss of Bundesdank and the boss of French bank call for a cut it's a done deal.
1
TimeTraveler
2 weeks ago
Anyway, the core argument here is that's more of a 50-50 situation with one side trading significantly lower than that, hence oppertunity: https://x.com/carstenbrzeski/status/1843191609858658720
European Central Bank cuts rates in Oct meeting?
Speculo
1 week ago
It seems that even the governor of the Bundesdank is supporting a cut. For me there is one situation where the rate is not cut. Israel attacks Iran, the oil price skyrockets and they fear inflation. That"s a very longshot. Do you have over arguments ?
0
TimeTraveler
2 weeks ago
Anyway, the core argument here is that's more of a 50-50 situation with one side trading significantly lower than that, hence oppertunity: https://x.com/carstenbrzeski/status/1843191609858658720
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
Speculo
2 weeks ago
so 1,5 - 1,9 was cheaper on 2.1 than on 2.2 lmao
0
mombil
2 weeks ago
So u know about it before it spreads around Twitter - NYT/Siena: Harris 49 - Trump 46
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
Speculo
2 weeks ago
2,2 next update.
0
mombil
2 weeks ago
So u know about it before it spreads around Twitter - NYT/Siena: Harris 49 - Trump 46
European Central Bank cuts rates in Oct meeting?
Speculo
2 weeks ago
You have some good points. But the Austrian governor that you cited in your previous post is the most hawkish of the crew, and Lagarde herself said that October should reflect new data on inflation.
0
TimeTraveler
2 weeks ago
Anyway, the core argument here is that's more of a 50-50 situation with one side trading significantly lower than that, hence oppertunity: https://x.com/carstenbrzeski/status/1843191609858658720
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
Speculo
2 weeks ago
anyway I agree that 1,5-1,9 is overpriced that's why I sold. Learned the hard way not to put too much trust in a trend in this market.
0
Frozencomet
2 weeks ago
its crazy that 1.5-1.9 is higher than 2-2.4 when its currently at 2.1
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
Speculo
2 weeks ago
@aaron28a this guy said Siena is releasing a National Poll. He is pro-trump, but informative. https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1843333273558364193
0
Speculo
2 weeks ago
True, that's because there is a Siena College (usually bad for Harris) and a bad Rasmussen for sure in the pipe.
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
Speculo
2 weeks ago
True, that's because there is a Siena College (usually bad for Harris) and a bad Rasmussen for sure in the pipe.
0
Frozencomet
2 weeks ago
its crazy that 1.5-1.9 is higher than 2-2.4 when its currently at 2.1
Israel military action against Yemen before November?
Speculo
2 weeks ago
Don't worry no holder. No death on Israeli side, and they have enough on their plates with Iran. US will deal with it.
0
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Speculo
2 weeks ago
UMA has voted twice for No or its proxy Too Early. If they changes their vote now, this is the end of Polymarket.
1
Buckworth
2 weeks ago
So it is still a 50/50 chance at least...
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Speculo
2 weeks ago
Guys... Stop doing this
0
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Speculo
2 weeks ago
I can’t help but feel a bit envious of the adrenaline rush he must experience when he reveals the votes.
0
Kobafix
2 weeks ago
Especially Chad, I hope he did not bet his house on this xd
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Speculo
2 weeks ago
Yes holders, it’s a good idea to have someone by your side for emotional support when UMA reveals the votes.
2
Will Trump win Florida by 8+ points?
Speculo
2 weeks ago
Not that much overvalued according to some models: https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/prediction-model/president/florida/
0
TheGuru
2 weeks ago
Based on the polls Trump has a 4% lead in Florida. That means in theory the chances of a 8% victory is the same as a democratic victory in Florida. The dems are at 15% to win Florida... This market is overvalued by about 10%
U.S. military action against Iran before November?
Speculo
2 weeks ago
Same here. And there is plenty of time for escalation.
1
Moondog
2 weeks ago
My opinion, Israel responds to Iran. Iran hits back, and the US gets involved.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Speculo
2 weeks ago
You are mad Chad ;)
2
U.S. military action against Iran before November?
Speculo
2 weeks ago
Unable to load your CHATGPT conversation. But I think people are wrong to think that presidentiel election is a deterrent. Biden and the dems would look strong on Iran, that would actually be an advantage from the swing state. Noboby is supporting Iran in the US.
0
Nobody3
2 weeks ago
https://chatgpt.com/c/67017289-ac80-8004-bf71-cf47601efa74
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Speculo
2 weeks ago
Guys, I just bought one share to express my sincere thanks and congratulations. I appreciate your dedication, you are hardcore. I am a bit worried that some of you will end up with even more share to make Polymarket a bigger shitshow. But still. Congrats.
1
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
Speculo
2 weeks ago
not free but worth a try indeed
0
n/a
2 weeks ago
free money in the no
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
Speculo
2 weeks ago
Some people have big balls to keep your share at 96%...
0
Israel military response against Iran by Friday?
Speculo
2 weeks ago
the question is not the Jewish New Year, that's absolutly not part of the equation. The only question is: is it the best moment to attack? Biden said not today. So if they attack today, they make Biden look weak, help Trump, and surprise Iran. Therefore, they will attack tonight.
0
Foreseeable.
2 weeks ago
i dont understand this sale at all. yesterday was Jewish new year, it was completely clear to me that if they attack, they will do it tonight. Thougt people would appreciate that with their 50% evaluation, apparently they did not. Important: This is until 06:59am of 4th of October due to different time zone. Im Hyped.
U.S. military action against Iran before November?
Speculo
2 weeks ago
BIDEN SAYS DISCUSSING ISRAEL STRIKING IRAN OIL FACILITIES from bloomberg
0
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Speculo
2 weeks ago
Someone at Poly ?
0
ClimateResearchers4Trump
2 weeks ago
By the way, Domer never comments on such markets which are dominated by screaming bunnies, and certainly not with a serious, unironic post. Perhaps he is still a little afraid that someone will decide to end this psyop at the last moment?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Speculo
2 weeks ago
On the discord for the November invasion, you said its possibly Yes now. Aren't September and November the same operations ?
0
🤺JustClément
2 weeks ago
(Just FYI this is extremely, extremely likely to go No, barring explosive new information, and you should not trade based off people in the comments trying to pump their bags)
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Speculo
2 weeks ago
I have absolutly no doubt that at the end of the day, Israel will have to stay, at least a couple of months. What I am not sure of is: will they say so before UMA makes the final vote.
1
Kobafix
2 weeks ago
Don't forget we will have 3 more days now, where new Info is coming in and more statements from both sides dropping.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Speculo
2 weeks ago
it's pure speculation at this point
0
MartyMcFly
2 weeks ago
why this extreme change of price, the final review isnt even done, right?
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
Speculo
2 weeks ago
In this market you will quickly learn to never say never ;)
4
genghisbrain
2 weeks ago
Harris over 2.5 would be higher than she's ever been. After Walz's disastrous performance, the hurricane crisis, and Iran-Israel escalating, I don't see how there's any chance she reaches these levels in a week. I'll sell at 99.9% No.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Speculo
2 weeks ago
Alright, folks, it’s over. You can flood the zone with the same articles that failed to convince UMA the first time, but it’s not going to change the outcome. My advice: sell your shares while you still can, and while Chad’s still asleep. Once he wakes up and starts unloading his positions, your liquidity will be toast.
1
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Speculo
2 weeks ago
I beg to differ... IDF clearly stated their intentions are to destroy Hezbo military infra and come back to Israel. But you, yes guys, genuinely probably, believe that IDF's real intention, is to create a buffer zone.
0
lordprotector - 7340
2 weeks ago
Maybe they must take a lie detection test
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
Speculo
2 weeks ago
New Ipsos : +4. If Reuters/Ipsos is updated with this one, it goes to 1,83. https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/ipsos-2024-us-national-election-survey-september-2024
1
U.S. military action against Iran before November?
Speculo
2 weeks ago
My take: if there is an Israeli response, the United States will have to be part of it. As strong as it, the IDF Air Force can't open all Iran air defense by its own. The US will have to send a lot of Tomahawks to clear the way.
1
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Speculo
3 weeks ago
Bro this article was posted over and over and nothing changes, unfortunately for Yes holder... It still mentions "limited raid" (most likely because the US told them that if they go for full-blast invasion, they are on their own. If limited to counter terrorist raids, they are backing them against Iran retaliation). Trust me I work half-time at the CIA, half-time trader on Poly.
1
ClimateResearchers4Trump
3 weeks ago
https://www.timesofisrael.com/idf-announces-launch-of-limited-ground-raids-of-hezbollah-sites-across-lebanon-border/
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Speculo
3 weeks ago
There are troops. Special ops with limited and specified military targets, who, as of now, have not clearly stated that there are there to establish control.
4
ClimateResearchers4Trump
3 weeks ago
Anyone who believes that there are no troops in Lebanon at all can still buy very cheap no-shares in the “Will Forces enter Lebanon market”. Have fun and good luck
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
Speculo
3 weeks ago
Updated: 1,8
0
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
Speculo
3 weeks ago
What a surprise ! I can believe it 😱
0
mombil
3 weeks ago
There we go: newer Yahoo news +4 Harris dropped, older Atlas Intel +3 Trump kept
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Speculo
3 weeks ago
No side, JustKen offered you a magnificent opportunity to edge your bets.
0
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Speculo
3 weeks ago
@0x4fC257D4C2b15F70d49dD5a8c5816cBb4A26E3F4-1721406153668 can you explain why you flipped ? That might be interesting for everyone ?
0
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Speculo
3 weeks ago
Thanks, this is very interesting: "Ori Goldberg, an Israeli political commentator and lecturer at Reichman University, says he doesn’t believe that Israel is lying about sending ground troops into Lebanon despite Hezbollah’s denial. “It’s a grey area,” he told Al Jazeera from Tel Aviv. “This isn’t an invasion force. This isn’t an expeditionary force. There are no tanks. There are no infantry troops. These are mostly commando units.” Golberg said it is possible that Israeli forces are likely focusing on known Hezbollah installations or similar targets. “So in that sense, if Hezbollah was expecting an invasion, then Hezbollah statements are correct. Israel, however, has been exactly saying that this is what the force is,” he said. “So both sides are telling their version of the truth.”"
2
Tentaclecracy
3 weeks ago
I find impossible for this market to resolve to yes, see what united nations observers say: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2024/10/1/israel-attacks-lebanon-live-israelis-launch-ground-operation-in-lebanon "The United Nations interim force, which has troops deployed along southern Lebanon and whose job really is to monitor violations along that border, said that they did not record any incrusion by the Israeli army."
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Speculo
3 weeks ago
and why do you think nobody dared to resolve it? Do you think it could be because the evidence are shaky ?
2
RememberAmalek
3 weeks ago
Better returns here, I'll be there after this one is over and the copium huffers move there
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Speculo
3 weeks ago
Yes holder, if you believe this market is already resolved, why don't you buy Yes on this market and ask for a yes resolution too : https://polymarket.com/event/will-israel-enter-lebanon-before-November?tid=1727778783702 ? This should be free money for you ?
0
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Speculo
3 weeks ago
They have understood that there were two different markets for reason.
3
n/a
3 weeks ago
"Yes" is losing confidence.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Speculo
3 weeks ago
Come on Yes guys, put your money where your mouth is and fill my order...
1
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Speculo
3 weeks ago
Yes are shitting in their pants haha
4
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
Speculo
3 weeks ago
How can 1-1.4 be cheaper than 0-0.9 lol ? To get to 0-0.9 you need to go through 1-1.4.
0
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Speculo
3 weeks ago
Therefore according to you the market for September should resolved to NO. If it hasn't happened yet.
0
kekkonen
3 weeks ago
This will resolve YES once the Israeli set up camp within Lebanese territory. That will happen today.
What will Tim Walz say during the VP Debate?
Speculo
3 weeks ago
Israel is free money. All course the moderators will ask them to comment on news :)
1
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Speculo
3 weeks ago
troops = infantry. Special forces operation should not count imho
0
n/a
3 weeks ago
But the raids already happened. And it's been reported that Israeli officers and officials confirmed it. Of course, Israel has not offiicially said it, but that does not change the evidence based on credible reporting. This should resolve "Yes" on the basis of the raids carried out so far.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Speculo
3 weeks ago
Who is UMA ? I understand that's it's UMA token holder. Who are these? Can someone vote several time ? Thanks guys
1
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Speculo
3 weeks ago
"Who do I think will win" is actually what Polymarket want us to predict. Not "Who I want to win". They want to predict events, not people's wishes.
0
Michimax
3 weeks ago
What I never understood is that people take the market outcome percentage as a credible source or justification. Same goes for the US election. Just because the shares are the way they are doesnt mean thats the people's general opinion.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Speculo
3 weeks ago
the sum of all people's speculation amounts to an opinion :)
0
Michimax
3 weeks ago
What I never understood is that people take the market outcome percentage as a credible source or justification. Same goes for the US election. Just because the shares are the way they are doesnt mean thats the people's general opinion.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Speculo
3 weeks ago
you had better sell your Yes price and buy No for a 400% rewards instead of posting the same article over and over. Courtesy of 50-Pence.
0
Sakuya
3 weeks ago
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/09/30/israeli-troops-cross-into-lebanon-for-targeted-operations/
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Speculo
3 weeks ago
Guys, nobody gives a shit of ChatGPT answers to your very biaised prompt ;) If it's up to ChatGPT to call WW3, then it's really the end of civilization here :)
1
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Speculo
3 weeks ago
I thought this was on Israel Time but's on ET Time. Extra 7 hours for them to move the tanks. I am relaxed now.
2
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Speculo
3 weeks ago
source please?
0
ActDrew
3 weeks ago
Efforts on the border are intensifying, near where Israeli tanks were reported "A Lebanese army soldier was killed due to his injuries resulting from an Israeli raid that targeted an army checkpoint in Al-Wazzani, southern Lebanon."
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Speculo
3 weeks ago
There is no consensus...
0
AugustoPinochet73
3 weeks ago
No should be at 0 because the conditions for this market have already happened.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Speculo
3 weeks ago
Nothing is easy man, this is why we get pay for prediction... Just an IDF tweet stating that an helicopter commando attacked an Hezbollah base next to the frontier this morning and this would shift to 99% yes.
0
Porcoddio
3 weeks ago
No should be at 95c already, lol. Easy 10%.
Will Harris publicly support tax on unrealized gains?
Speculo
3 weeks ago
Is there a chance that UMA disagrees with PM ?
0
AugustoPinochet73
3 weeks ago
He had a weak evidence. PM clarifies and after UMA says NO he will drop the big one... or maybe before UMA votes
Kamala Silver Bulletin odds >55% on Friday?
Speculo
3 weeks ago
58,1% today : https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1839664551177892285
0
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
Speculo
3 weeks ago
10% still believe in a stab in the back from RCP
0
Will Harris publicly support tax on unrealized gains?
Speculo
3 weeks ago
He is a man of his words.
0
Sardinianshepherd
3 weeks ago
Lol 50-pence just put another 11k
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
Speculo
3 weeks ago
Rasmussen Trump +2. No change.
0
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
Speculo
3 weeks ago
Instead of being screwed in USDC you will get f*** in PolyCoin. This changes everything !
2
EdgyUsername
3 weeks ago
What difference would that make?
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
Speculo
3 weeks ago
They do have a lot of justification to skew towards Rep as the last two presidential election cycles, most polls were skewing +3/4 towards dems. The issue is that the methodology is absolutly not transparent.
0
Justifax
3 weeks ago
If anything it's just trying to deal with the shy trump voters somehow.
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
Speculo
3 weeks ago
One thread from 2020. Please read carefully before betting here: https://x.com/nate_cohn/status/1323601603249713152
3
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
Speculo
3 weeks ago
I’ve been screwed over by RCP the last three times, and yet I keep sticking around. I probably need some psychological help at this point...
4
Kamala flips Trump on Silver Bulletin by Sept 30?
Speculo
1 month ago
updated: 51% Trump, 48,8% Harris.
1
n/a
1 month ago
If not today I don't think it happens.
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
Speculo
1 month ago
do you think 2,5+ is dead dead ?
0
mombil
1 month ago
Will update to 2.1 later with the new NYT Siena Poll (47-47)
Kamala flips Trump on Silver Bulletin by Sept 30?
Speculo
1 month ago
PA NYT Siena : +4 Harris. It's over boiz
0
Kamala flips Trump on Silver Bulletin by Sept 30?
Speculo
1 month ago
Nate Silver 10 min ago: "As the Electoral College race tightens back to 50/50, this may happen again soon, perhaps as soon as in today’s model run." No holder, feel free to tip if this helps you :)
0
Kamala flips Trump on Silver Bulletin by Sept 30?
Speculo
1 month ago
a 2-3 pts swing in poll in not something so rare...
0
x.com/polymarketbet
1 month ago
The Atlas was the best poll for you when it showed Biden +6 in 2020, but by showing Trump +2 in 2024 it becomes "propaganda". Its rated A+.
Kamala flips Trump on Silver Bulletin by Sept 30?
Speculo
1 month ago
I am not saying AtlasIntel is propaganda, I am just saying that if Kamala get a few good polls in PA you will loose your money...
0
x.com/polymarketbet
1 month ago
The Atlas was the best poll for you when it showed Biden +6 in 2020, but by showing Trump +2 in 2024 it becomes "propaganda". Its rated A+.
Kamala flips Trump on Silver Bulletin by Sept 30?
Speculo
1 month ago
Your P&L speaks for you, but according to me she only needs a few good polls in the swing states, notably PA, NV, WI, MI. Only a couple of +1/+2 in three of these states would probably do the trick, especially in PA. Her national polls are excellent, but the states polls are mediocre, hence, the difference between the national polling average and the % of winning in Nate Silver Bulletin. So it's far from impossible that she flips it. But if this good swing states polls don't materialize, the No will go up quickly.
1
x.com/polymarketbet
1 month ago
with all current polls, Trump is down only 56% from 60% previously. Traditionally, Trump's polls drop immediately after a debate and recover within a week or two. Harris has 0 chance of getting over 50% in the model. She needs 10 more A+ polls with a 10+ lead to do it. This is impossible
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
Speculo
1 month ago
I feel seller's remorse for offloading my 2.5 shares at 10c on Sunday. Not over for blast, if the trend continues tmw and thursday. What do you think?
0
Kamala Harris 538 odds >55% Friday?
Speculo
1 month ago
No seems cheap to me
0
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
Speculo
1 month ago
https://x.com/Rasmussen_Poll/status/1835504861217185983
1
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
Speculo
1 month ago
1.8
0
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
Speculo
1 month ago
https://x.com/umichvoter/status/1835016264319733846
0
Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Friday?
Speculo
1 month ago
you lost bro...
4
IlyasproQw
1 month ago
So whats the results
Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Friday?
Speculo
1 month ago
unfortunately this is not updated
0
efren1983
1 month ago
https://x.com/Rasmussen_Poll trump 50- harris 44
Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Friday?
Speculo
1 month ago
One thing is certain : everything is possible. If I was holding 1.5-1.9 shares I will sell it for 90cts, the reward is not worth the risk now.
0
432
1 month ago
can be everything.They could also take a pro trump poll or one with simply harris +1 and it would also go down to 1.4.Everything is possible at this stage
Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Friday?
Speculo
1 month ago
two days after the debate, there might be 2-3 new polls update tomorrow. Everything is possible. This shit is crazy
0
432
1 month ago
tomorrow there will be some movements.On the last days there are always some movements
Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Friday?
Speculo
1 month ago
maybe this guy is an intern at RCP ;)
0
BallzToTheWalz
1 month ago
some1 just dumped 5k of 1-1.4 and bought 5k+ of 1.5-1.9 .... wtf do they know that we dont?
Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Friday?
Speculo
1 month ago
this is over for 0-0,9 I think 😭
1
mombil
1 month ago
Rasmussen: +2 Trump (49/47) = down to 1.2
Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Friday?
Speculo
1 month ago
maybe 432 works at RCP ;)
0
n/a
1 month ago
@432 how can you be so sure?
Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Friday?
Speculo
1 month ago
are you sure of that ? The cut off dates are no very predictible
0
432
1 month ago
Indomania you forget that today also ABC news will be updated
Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Friday?
Speculo
1 month ago
I though you were on the 0-0,9. You are safe :)
0
n/a
1 month ago
@Poly, not enough for what?
Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Friday?
Speculo
1 month ago
yes but even à +5 Trump on Rasmussen wouln't be enough
0
n/a
1 month ago
It's a lock for Rasmusen +4 or +3 TRUMP lead
Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Friday?
Speculo
1 month ago
if only it was pure math :)
2
JustinFromPI
1 month ago
Looks like people are starting to wake up and math
Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Friday?
Speculo
1 month ago
it's here: https://x.com/Mark_R_Mitchell/status/1833966465399079368/photo/1
1
n/a
1 month ago
Has Rasmussen published their daily numbers for today?
Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Friday?
Speculo
1 month ago
so what are you buying the no option ?
2
n/a
1 month ago
Kamala KILLED it in the debate!!!! This can easily get up to Kamala Leads by 1.5 to 1.9 in the next 2 days!!!
Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Friday?
Speculo
1 month ago
of course it's safe, but is the reward worth it?
1
addicts
1 month ago
I think no on trump lead is safe...
Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Friday?
Speculo
1 month ago
I am probably missing something...
0
Speculo
1 month ago
Updated : Harris +1.1
Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Friday?
Speculo
1 month ago
I don't get the pricing for 0-0,9... All the polls that are keeping her afloat are before 1st of september. It's is basically a tie if you only take into account the most recent polls. RCP has a strong track record of favoring the GOP. There is a strong Ramussen coming in before end of market. It should be at least 50-50.
0
Varu
1 month ago
She is in a downtrend. We have some chances.
Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Friday?
Speculo
1 month ago
it's updated
1
mombil
1 month ago
Marist is +1 Kamala, not included so far but will be later, so will it will go from 1.18 (13/11) to 1.166 (14/11)
Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Friday?
Speculo
1 month ago
Updated : Harris +1.1
1
Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Friday?
Speculo
1 month ago
there is another candidate are you sure this is included ?
0
mombil
1 month ago
Marist is +1 Kamala, not included so far but will be later, so will it will go from 1.18 (13/11) to 1.166 (14/11)
Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Friday?
Speculo
1 month ago
No one knows for sure; it's up to RCP to decide. However, it's interesting to note that the average for September is 0.5, while for August it was 2.0. This suggests a trend that could indicate where the next polls might be headed.
1
mombil
1 month ago
when are polls old enough to be removed?
Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Friday?
Speculo
1 month ago
This market is so unpredictable that no one dares to make a call anymore, knowing they'll most likely be proven wrong by the next set of polls 😂
2
Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Friday?
Speculo
1 month ago
If you calculate the average, the spread is currently 1,75. It only takes 0,31 pts to change brackets. Just two goods or two polls in the same direction
0
CleverHans
1 month ago
I think sooner or later RCP will revert to the all other mean. 3.0 percent.
Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Friday?
Speculo
1 month ago
RealClearPolitics (RCP) has a right-wing bias, typically favoring the GOP by about 1.5 to 2 points on average when compared to other outlets like FiveThirtyEight, Silver or The Economist. Considering that daily fluctuations of 0.2 points are common and we still have seven days remaining, I believe the probability across all three outcome ranges from 1 to 2.5 points is around 30% each. In short, anything can happen. One is over priced, one is rightly priced, one is under priced ;)
0
CleverHans
1 month ago
I think sooner or later RCP will revert to the all other mean. 3.0 percent.
Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Sept. 6?
Speculo
1 month ago
it's basically a roulette based on RCP
2
Randomchooser
1 month ago
they updated the poll to 22/8 , removing all polls that havent release/update their polls before 22-8. I expected just 2 removals.. instead...thats the craziest market ever!
Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Sept. 6?
Speculo
1 month ago
Like we say in French: J'adore !
0
Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Sept. 6?
Speculo
1 month ago
How do you come to this conclusion?
1
diddy
1 month ago
Guys I made a calculation previously, I don’t think this will be +2 Kamala, don’t take my word for it but let’s see
Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Sept. 6?
Speculo
1 month ago
I don't see why RCP would be the only polling average where Kam is on the rise... They will surely figure out something.
1
Justifax
1 month ago
If pew and fox drop off, this is around 2.2 .. not sure when that happens though. I think it's around 3 weeks for expiry? Or maybe a set number of polls.
Next French Prime Minister
Speculo
1 month ago
cool idea. But I think Emmanuel still president in France on 2024 is far from certain.
0
nicoco89
1 month ago
New market idea "Will Michel Barnier still be Prime Minister on December 31?"
Next French Prime Minister
Speculo
1 month ago
he is officially appointed now, there has been a communiqué from the Elysee Palace.
2
BabyYoda12
1 month ago
Just being named as PM wont suffice. He needs to have support of the parties which he certainly wont get! Hedge your bets fellas.
Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Sept. 6?
Speculo
1 month ago
I think that most medias have understand that national polls are totally irrelevant to check the state of the race, so there are not polling very much. What matters now are swing state polls.
2
diddy
1 month ago
Rasmussen coming out soon, appears to leave Kamala at 1.9 or might lower her to 1.8, depending on dominant decimals of RCP
Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Sept. 6?
Speculo
1 month ago
if this updated daily on the RCP?
0
diddy
1 month ago
It’s over for 2-2.4, https://x.com/rasmussen_poll/status/1831295199185662460?s=46&t=_7tYBcMVFR6IgKD4ztkf-Q
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
Speculo
1 month ago
this market is so boring
0
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
Speculo
1 month ago
this will increase the margin for this bet too : https://polymarket.com/event/trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-on-sept-6/will-kamala-lead-in-rcp-by-2pt5-2pt9-september-6?tid=1725195815935
0
Justifax
1 month ago
So does 23rd change to 2 and 28 change to 2.3?
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
Speculo
1 month ago
She is at +4 this doesn't change anything...
0
diddy
1 month ago
ABC poll kills Kamala 23-27 days
Next French Prime Minister
Speculo
1 month ago
c'est pas fait mais si ce n'est pas lui ce serait qui ? Aucun NFP, LR et bien sûr RN ne veut y aller. Il faut bien un premier ministre, et tout Macron qu'il soit, il ne va pas renommer Attal. Donc je pense qu'il a pas trop le choix: il faut que ce soit Cazeneuve, sinon les appels à la démission seront de plus en plus nombreux.
0
Grrrenouille
1 month ago
C'est pas encore fait Cazeneuve (et pas sûr qu'il ne se fasse pas censurer) mais quoiqu'il arrive je suis d'accord que ça sera other
Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Sept. 6?
Speculo
1 month ago
2.5 - 2.9 is cheap... A few good polls and she moves to 2.1, and there everything become possible. s possible. She is in the middle of the post-DNC bounce. Other polling average (Nate Silver, The Economist) are higher and closer to 3 - 4. Worth a 10-1 bet...
2
Next French Prime Minister
Speculo
1 month ago
Je ne comprends pas le pricing... Cela fait 8 semaine qu'on cherche qqun et Cazeneuve est le seul qui ne sera pas censuré dans la foulée, et il rencontre Macron lundi. Other devrait être à 95%.
0
Grrrenouille
1 month ago
Unfortunately Cazeneuve isn't in the list, it would have been an interesting bet
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
Speculo
1 month ago
I don't see the point of being still engaged in this market... Too many unknown unknows. All RCP methodology is unknown, Polymarket's settlement trigger and rules is unknown too, as many people have different interpretations. Not a good 10-1 bet.
0
Justifax
1 month ago
sure hope nothing weird happens, cause like woah
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
Speculo
1 month ago
I am in european time
0
Justifax
1 month ago
RCP doesn't publish an average for 29 or 30 because nobody has released a poll surveying people on 29 or 30. Pew could also drop off and things could change dramatically. Worse, we need to wait until the 31st is available so who knows.
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
Speculo
1 month ago
there is an average for 29... it's shown on the graph.
0
Justifax
1 month ago
RCP doesn't publish an average for 29 or 30 because nobody has released a poll surveying people on 29 or 30. Pew could also drop off and things could change dramatically. Worse, we need to wait until the 31st is available so who knows.
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
Speculo
1 month ago
It's making me crazy... It was supposed to be free money.
1
MORON
1 month ago
Fuck this market this wasn’t the play, going back to Ukraine/Israel.
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
Speculo
1 month ago
anything can happen in the next 36 hours though. We are post DNC + post RFK dropout, every pollster is probably doing polls these days. 1 to 5 polls could be released until this is settled.
0
Plutos
1 month ago
It always has been +1,6 for day 0. Not its at +1,8 on Day 6 so Harris is gaining +0,2 until now. Its not that hard.
Next French Prime Minister
Speculo
1 month ago
sunday. You money is safe.
1
n/a
1 month ago
Ok when dies it finally ends! Macron needs to hurry up
Next French Prime Minister
Speculo
1 month ago
Heureusement que Cazeneuve n'est plus membre du PS :)
1
nicoco89
1 month ago
euhhhh mouais hein. On peut très bien avoir un PM issu du PS dans un gouvernement allant du centre gauche au centre droit. Et dans ce cas la ... other NFP :)
Next French Prime Minister
Speculo
1 month ago
I am French... For me this is free money. Other.
2
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
Speculo
1 month ago
https://www.outwardintelligence.com/pulse/harris-leads-by-5
0
Trump vs. Harris RCP polling margin on Aug 30?
Speculo
1 month ago
unless the guys in charge of the poll at RCP is holding a big chunk of Harris by 1.5-1.9 and wait for a couple of days...
1
diddy
1 month ago
Reuters is a valid RCP poll, yes it will drop
Pavel Durov flees France by Sep 15?
Speculo
1 month ago
The risk is limited... This will be the humiliation of the century for the French Police if he flees France. And the charges won't be dropped in two weeks, this can go on for months (or possibily years). But I agree the reward is limited.
0
Myh
1 month ago
Whoever buys "NO" is an idiot willing to risk money at 6%, it's ridiculous, better think with your head and buy "YES"
Pavel Durov released in August?
Speculo
1 month ago
because they will take his passport and put him in house arrest... That's how it works in France (I am French). .
1
GreedyMacFear
1 month ago
Why do you think they wont keep him in custody?