Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

scottilicious

2 weeks ago

roflmao

1

PrincessCaro✔️

2 weeks ago

just called the CFTC and told them I've lost money betting illegally on an offshore gambling site and want a refund. They said they'd get back to me soon

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

scottilicious

2 weeks ago

koom ba ya, koom ba ya

0

fhantombets

2 weeks ago

I believe in the power of friendship

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

scottilicious

2 weeks ago

no= gambling addiction and depression dual diagnosis yes= elephantitis

1

ClimateResearchers4Trump

2 weeks ago

If Chad tells his therapist that he lost all his money because he bet that Israel would invade Lebanon, will he be treated for gambling addiction or for a psychosis? Serious question

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

scottilicious

2 weeks ago

Meantime yeses please keep buying, I'm enjoying the cheap No shares... yummiii.... delicious...

2

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

scottilicious

2 weeks ago

There is a concerted effort by yeses on this comment thread to somehow influence the outcome despite the fact that reconnaissance is not an invasion, and Lebanon, UN , etc saw noone cross the border in September. The sheer volume of posts is astounding but I don't think it will affect the outcome on UMA where saner heads will prevail IMO

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

scottilicious

2 weeks ago

No he didn't , there is no time listed , it just says Oct 1st. The lies by yeses on here are ruthless!

0

AFistfulOfStrayCatHair

2 weeks ago

You own-goaled yourself very hard here.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

scottilicious

2 weeks ago

wrong again, must reflect the situation at the close of the question date September 30th. Nothing to do with November.

1

Justifax

2 weeks ago

The only way this market can go YES and september go NO if for some reason, idf changes their strategy in november. Given the holidays, not a lot of time for that. Seems very improbable

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

scottilicious

2 weeks ago

famous last words lol

1

ClimateResearchers4Trump

2 weeks ago

i'm looking on the bright side. i don't have much money left in this bet. if i lose here, i'll make a collage of all the invasion headlines and the result no here. if anyone ever asks about polymarkt i'll show them this funny collage

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

scottilicious

2 weeks ago

you drank the cool aid on the initial news articles and you like to stereotype... more nuanced articles have since come out but you're too busy trying your latest comedic routine to do the research which corroborates your initials, Don't F*ckin' Know- so where's the humility?

0

-DFK-

3 weeks ago

(in this scenario I assumed you were American. No offense if you're not. It's not because your name is Scott and you say dumb shit that I should jump to conclusions).

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

scottilicious

2 weeks ago

The Guardian: “The [Israeli] move here now isn’t some large-scale ground manoeuvre but truly one to remove a threat to the communities near the border, and this is absolutely part of the defensive operation. To perceive this as a wide-scale ground manoeuvre in Lebanon or an operation of conquest or [forming] a security zone – I think it isn’t.”https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/01/the-domestic-political-objectives-behind-israels-incursion-into-lebanon

5

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

scottilicious

2 weeks ago

no psyop just facts , you're coping

2

lordprotector - 7340

2 weeks ago

What a psy-op against yes. Almost convincing

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

scottilicious

2 weeks ago

What an incredibly nuanced argument! Impressive.

0

ClimateResearchers4Trump

2 weeks ago

No, of course it can no longer go in both directions. The invasion has already happened. So much for the truth

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

scottilicious

2 weeks ago

you're not tempted to offload a chunk at these sweet prices given the ambiguity?

1

HaterzLoserz

3 weeks ago

Also, potentially unpopular opinion. Shit talking and chaos in the comments in fun. Much more fun than following rules on discord, like if someone talks shit here, you can just personally attack them to a pretty extreme degree without any repercusions, i fucking love that lol. its certainly not for every part of the internet, and polymarket users who dont like it should engage in discord, but the comments being wild west unmoderated is the way to go imo.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

scottilicious

2 weeks ago

and the attack from Iran adds another crazy wrinkle..

1

scottilicious

2 weeks ago

Truth is this could still go either way, esp. with this from CNN a few hours ago "an Israeli security official told reporters on condition of anonymity Tuesday morning that the operation does not amount to an invasion or incursion, describing it instead as “localized raids” that are “very limited in scope and in the area of operation.” https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/01/middleeast/israel-ground-incursion-lebanon-explainer-intl-hnk/index.html

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

scottilicious

2 weeks ago

Truth is this could still go either way, esp. with this from CNN a few hours ago "an Israeli security official told reporters on condition of anonymity Tuesday morning that the operation does not amount to an invasion or incursion, describing it instead as “localized raids” that are “very limited in scope and in the area of operation.” https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/01/middleeast/israel-ground-incursion-lebanon-explainer-intl-hnk/index.html

4

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

scottilicious

2 weeks ago

I was watching like a hawk, I think it's a no obviously, though by some arguments could be 50/50 and no way in hell it's a clear yes given the latest info from CNN, WSJ, UN, Lebanese army etc etc

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

scottilicious

2 weeks ago

I think he had a brain fart. Yup. Posts some interesting stuff sometimes but that makes zero sense.

0

Cedarville

2 weeks ago

You realize October comes after September, right?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

scottilicious

2 weeks ago

This contention is not logical because things can happen in October that didn't occur in September. As of right now, neither Sept or Nov are obvious yeses, quite the contrary more and more mainstream sources are pointing at limited incursions vs invasion.

3

Justifax

3 weeks ago

If November goes YES, this should go YES. We literally had invasion headlines. Really the only debate issue is the control thingy, which I think is nonsense, but will be settled for november.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

scottilicious

3 weeks ago

CNN: extent of incursion unclear. "An Israeli security official told reporters on condition of anonymity Tuesday morning that the operation does not amount to an invasion or incursion, describing it instead as “localized raids” that are “very limited in scope and in the area of operation.” The official said there were so far “no clashes” on the ground between the IDF and Hezbollah, but refused to comment on whether Israeli tanks have entered Lebanon and would not elaborate on how deep into Lebanese territory Israeli troops have advanced, saying they were focused on the border areas. “The amount of forces and the type of forces are more appropriate to something of a limited raid, and not, for example, things we’ve seen in Gaza with very, very large forces,” the official added. Hezbollah rejected the claim that Israeli forces had entered southern Lebanon, describing them as “lies,” according to a statement by spokesman Mohamed Afif on Tuesday." https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/01/middleeast/israel-ground-incursion-lebanon-explainer-intl-hnk/index.html

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

scottilicious

3 weeks ago

Way too early for all the Yeses to declare victory on this, the Israelis and some media are calling it a limited incursion with specific goals. Some media are using the word "invasion" but are not sufficiently backing it up. And Lebanese army and UN are saying they don't see invasion. Establish control, invasion are not met IMO

4

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

scottilicious

3 weeks ago

Haaretz refers to limited ground incursion with emphasis on "focused" and "limited" sure doesn't sound like an invasion to me!

1

scottilicious

3 weeks ago

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-10-01/ty-article/.premium/israeli-army-launches-limited-ground-incursion-against-hezbollah-in-southern-lebanon/00000192-46a1-d2cc-a5d7-e7bd25910000

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

scottilicious

3 weeks ago

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-10-01/ty-article/.premium/israeli-army-launches-limited-ground-incursion-against-hezbollah-in-southern-lebanon/00000192-46a1-d2cc-a5d7-e7bd25910000

2

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

scottilicious

3 weeks ago

Times if Israel: https://www.timesofisrael.com/a-limited-lebanon-raid-with-narrow-goals-is-no-game-changer-but-comes-with-risks/ https://www.timesofisrael.com/a-limited-lebanon-raid-with-narrow-goals-is-no-game-changer-but-comes-with-risks/ Sure doesn't seem like an invasion to me.

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

scottilicious

3 weeks ago

Ground operation in Lebanon would not be a “solution to the problem," former Israeli prime minister says From CNN’s Zahid Mahmood Former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said he does not think that an Israeli ground operation into Lebanon would be a “solution to the problem.” Olmert was prime minister when Israel invaded Lebanon in 2006. He said what is needed in the north of Israel is a joint coordination with the United States, the United Nations and the Lebanese government to move a “weakened” Hezbollah away from the Litani River in southern Lebanon. “This will not resolve all the issue(s), but it will open up for an opportunity to build up the necessary political powers and the military powers within Lebanon, which may change the balance there,” Olmert said The former prime minister also said Israel should stop its war in Gaza. He told CNN he thinks his country has “reached the objectives that we set out that we could achieve” there. “There is nothing more that is worth the cost of fighting in the south, particularly the danger to the lives of the hostages, which are still alive and which we may have brought them back in part of an agreement to ceasefire in the south,” he added.

2

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

scottilicious

3 weeks ago

could be, but it ain't over till it's over my G

0

basedd

3 weeks ago

scot bond gone wrong

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

scottilicious

3 weeks ago

Suffice to say there are a lot of nuances but the Yes peeps are prematurely cocky. Things change very fast in the Middle East.

1

Mr.Wellington

3 weeks ago

The key condition for the market to resolve to "Yes" is that Israel must launch a military offensive with the intent to establish control over part of Lebanon. If the stated goal of the operation is a limited incursion, even if ground forces are deployed, and there is no mention of controlling or holding territory, it would not meet the criteria for the market to resolve to "Yes."

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

scottilicious

3 weeks ago

Except it hasn't happened.

0

Au-gust

3 weeks ago

People are getting really specific with ‘establish control’. The purpose of that phrasing is to disqualify short raids into Lebanese territory. No one can describe the incoming incursion as a raid with the amount of equipment poised to move into Lebanon. Doubly, the purpose of the incursion is clearly meant to disrupt hezbollah infrastructure and operations in the south of the country, that will require a military presence that can only be described as ‘establishing control’.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

scottilicious

3 weeks ago

I'm sticking w/my NO and even added a little. By far the riskiest play in my portfolio however: (1) Language of the Q calls for an invasion meant to establish control vs clearing out a threat (2) Diplomatic solution could still come at any time (3) Netanyahu probably doesn't want to deal with the diplomatic and military headaches of an invasion. Incursions, cross border raids etc etc are very different but they don't count for this market!

4

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

scottilicious

3 weeks ago

Everything I see says incursion, limited operation, etc etc ... maybe the control comes if/when it's established over a certain geographic are ie. IDF affirms control over X X? Tough one.

1

Justifax

3 weeks ago

The problem fundamentally is one of 'duration'. Obviously control and intent to control will be satisfied, but what duration does such control have to be for? 1 day? 1 week? 1 year?

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

scottilicious

3 weeks ago

Limited ground operation is not an invasion folks.

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

scottilicious

3 weeks ago

Or they're just pumping their bags so they can exit what is still a risky market.

0

scottilicious

3 weeks ago

It's odd to see some folks who appear otherwise sane and may have made a good prediction declare victory prematurely. There is a large spread between operations and incursions to establishing control over an area that is part of a country. Ain't over till the fat lady sings folks.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

scottilicious

3 weeks ago

It's odd to see some folks who appear otherwise sane and may have made a good prediction declare victory prematurely. There is a large spread between operations and incursions to establishing control over an area that is part of a country. Ain't over till the fat lady sings folks.

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

scottilicious

3 weeks ago

People are having a hard time understanding this lol and keep trying to manipulate things.

0

Slawomir

3 weeks ago

It is very clearly not "enter any Lebanese territory...", but " a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Lebanon..."

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

scottilicious

3 weeks ago

Um hello "intended to establish control over any portion" means Southern Lebanon or another part of Lebanon it doesn't mean special ops lol

0

Foreseeable.

3 weeks ago

A "limited military operation into southern lebanon" is still an invasion according to the rules of this bet: "if Israel commences a military offensive intended to establish control over ANY portion of Lebanon"

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

scottilicious

3 weeks ago

Scottilicious news service: There are musings by the more Scottlicious among us that Israel would use the ruse of a potential ground operation to distract Hezbollah from a hit on Nasrallah and his captains. It could also be a good way to identify supply routes as the overconfident Iranians would likely move to reinforce Hezbollah's southern flank.

2

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

scottilicious

3 weeks ago

CNN: "n a statement released Thursday night, the prime minister’s office said that “Israel shares the aims of the U.S.-led initiative of enabling people along our northern border to return safely and securely to their homes.” “Israel appreciates the US efforts,” the statement said, and promised that discussions would continue “in the coming days.”

6

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

scottilicious

3 weeks ago

Seymour Hirsch: "I had a talk with another well-informed Israeli veteran, who was seriously wounded in an earlier war, who explained that the Israeli decision to trigger the explosives was not the planned act of war that it seemed to be. He said the embedded materials were triggered only because Mossad learned that its action had been inadvertently discovered by a few Hamas officials who had brought their pagers in for routine repairs. It was that discovery that led Netanyahu or one of his aides to authorize the attack. "

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

scottilicious

3 weeks ago

Reminder, noone knows for sure how Uma holders will vote if the result is contested and if there are situations and nuances that are not completely congruent with the current rules of the result..

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

scottilicious

3 weeks ago

Ah ah ah justifax you're being just-linear on this particular analysis.. Their political hegemony could be degraded from the inside. Golly gee willikers but there just might be some Hezbollah members who are not ultra-eager to have their villages become the next Gaza, and they might even hand in their nifty pagers and other credentials for membership in another party. .

0

Justifax

3 weeks ago

Lol... who in Lebanon in their right mind is going to try to stand up to one of the biggest non state armies in the world. This is totally idiotic take. What Naz has to worry about is getting clipped, not whether he can influence lebanon politics.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

scottilicious

3 weeks ago

Wall Street Journal: “Hezbollah are damned if they do and damned if they don’t,” said Aram Nerguizian, a nonresident senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies with expertise in military dynamics in the Middle East. “The risk for the group is that the longer this goes on—and the longer the Israelis are able to avoid getting into a ground campaign that only benefits Hezbollah—the more rapidly the group’s credibility, monopoly on national security politics, and de facto political hegemony are degraded,” Nerguizian said.

2

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

scottilicious

3 weeks ago

Also if Iran really wants Kamala methinks they would push Hezbollag to cut the bullshit for a while

1

scottilicious

3 weeks ago

Yeses showing a lot of bravado today but temporary pause of hostilities, ceasefire and whatever else this thing should jump .20-.30 on the no side. Just sayin' ...

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

scottilicious

3 weeks ago

Yeses showing a lot of bravado today but temporary pause of hostilities, ceasefire and whatever else this thing should jump .20-.30 on the no side. Just sayin' ...

2

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

scottilicious

3 weeks ago

Wapo: Danny Danon, Israel’s ambassador to the United Nations, said Tuesday that Israel is “not eager” to start a ground invasion and would prefer a diplomatic solution, something the Biden administration, its European allies and Middle Eastern leaders are pushing for. “As we speak there are important forces trying to come up with ideas, and we are open-minded for that,” Danon told reporters. While the IDF has repositioned some troops to the north in recent days, it’s unclear if they are preparing to cross the border.

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

scottilicious

3 weeks ago

https://www.axios.com/2024/09/24/hezbollah-israel-iran-attack-us-intelligence

0

scottilicious

3 weeks ago

From Axios: "A senior Israeli official said the security cabinet directive to Israel Defense Forces is to avoid steps the would give Iran a reason or a pretext to join the fighting."

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

scottilicious

3 weeks ago

From Axios: "A senior Israeli official said the security cabinet directive to Israel Defense Forces is to avoid steps the would give Iran a reason or a pretext to join the fighting."

2

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

scottilicious

0 months ago

Problem is Bibi needs war to stay in power and avoid jailtime. But probably too cautious of lots of dead soldiers to go into Lebanon. So nasty status quo for a long time imo.

0

Justifax

0 months ago

OK no folks, honest question: What does Israel do if bombing Lebanon doesn't stop Hez from lobbing missiles? Imho, you're arguing that Hezbollah will be deterred and Israel will be able to move its people back to the north..

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

scottilicious

0 months ago

those weeks of clearing the ground could easily last until November or December though...

2

HaterzLoserz

0 months ago

Full Disclosure: I watched the harris/trump debates on magic mushrooms and blew $60k on mention markets in one evening. Just so you all know who you are dealing with here.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

scottilicious

1 month ago

good film by the way on Iranian peeps vs their govt https://www.lemonde.fr/en/culture/article/2024/05/23/cannes-2024-seeds-of-the-wild-fig-tree-at-the-cutting-edge-of-underground-iranian-cinema_6672481_30.html .... Israeli govt too hawkish but the continued presence of Gallant vs Saar is indicative of caution IMO

2

HaterzLoserz

1 month ago

Timing for Israel is far better than most people give credit for. They stopped asking US permission for things quite a while ago, and now prefer to act first and ask forgiveness later. or rather, assume the US wont do shit pre election at least. Key figures in govt like Ben Gvir will be bulling for taking more arab land, thats his whole thing, i hate the fucking cunt, but it is what it is. The stated goals of returning residents to North Israel require a buffer zone, shooting rockets into lebanon indefinitely to deter hezb isnt a real option either, gotta make a DMZ basically if they want that. And if harris wins the election, that might become a whole lot more complicated, better to take it now and mch harder for harris to make you leave then. And Hezb is at an all time low in strenght and coordination right now, this is the time to land a decisive blow that will cripple them for years. With Hamas + Hezb crippled, Irans only option will be direct conflict, which they dont want to get into.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

scottilicious

1 month ago

A lot of Israelis once you get past the bluster are weary of a confrontation w/Iran and the recent show of force despite the missiles being shot down was pretty scary from what I hear..

0

HaterzLoserz

1 month ago

Timing for Israel is far better than most people give credit for. They stopped asking US permission for things quite a while ago, and now prefer to act first and ask forgiveness later. or rather, assume the US wont do shit pre election at least. Key figures in govt like Ben Gvir will be bulling for taking more arab land, thats his whole thing, i hate the fucking cunt, but it is what it is. The stated goals of returning residents to North Israel require a buffer zone, shooting rockets into lebanon indefinitely to deter hezb isnt a real option either, gotta make a DMZ basically if they want that. And if harris wins the election, that might become a whole lot more complicated, better to take it now and mch harder for harris to make you leave then. And Hezb is at an all time low in strenght and coordination right now, this is the time to land a decisive blow that will cripple them for years. With Hamas + Hezb crippled, Irans only option will be direct conflict, which they dont want to get into.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

scottilicious

1 month ago

You should also look at recent agreements between Russia and Iran though as a factor to weigh in the US trying to dissuade Israel. Ultimately noone wants WW III and this could end up like Israeli gains post Suez Canal with a superpower intervention on all sides forcing a cool down.

0

MisTKy

1 month ago

And from Aljazeera headlines (mind that this news outlet is pro Hezbollah):More people leaving southern Lebanon as conflict with Israel intensifies/Hospitals in northern Israel instructed to shift to war footing

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

scottilicious

1 month ago

oh you're correct I was mistakenly looking at the shares bet and stipulating that was the same as dollar value. Usually don't make that mistake maybe I'm rattled lol ;) Holding firm though... we'll see...

1

HaterzLoserz

1 month ago

Cosmically, you are correct. Morals of betting on a war happening are debatable. If you asked me a few years ago if id be betting on Israel invading their neighbours, id have said no ^ But we both down $50k if we lose on this, why the comment on me being wiped out if I lose ^ our accounts aint that far apart in size :P

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

scottilicious

1 month ago

a quote from an Israeli source I read a week or so ago said this process could take several weeks to several months...

0

MisTKy

1 month ago

So this is was happened it last 24h according to accounts of israeli reporters: 1. IDF steps up efforts to reduce Hezbollah arsenal, ahead of potential ground invasion to push terrorists away from border & demilitarize area; army is targeting arms depots, launchers & staging areas. 2. Air Force is also striking deeper in Lebanon to neutralize air defenses supplied by Iran, clear airspace for Israeli warplanes before launching more intense attacks in next stage of conflict.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

scottilicious

1 month ago

that's a huge if

0

Justifax

1 month ago

If invasion is likely going to happen, much more moral to be on the YES side. The moral goal of prediction markets is to warn people before it's too late. Pollyanna bets do not do that.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

scottilicious

1 month ago

You have a pretty good track record, but man it's gonna get obliterated if you're wrong on this one.... Mine will suffer if I'm wrong but nowhere near what your PnL will do! Just sayin' ...

0

HaterzLoserz

1 month ago

love that you are committed enough to this to even shittalk Car when hes on the same side of the market as you lol

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

scottilicious

1 month ago

Not to mention, a quick google search reveals at least half a dozen times in the last six months when media etc were saying a ground invasion by Israel was imminent and nothing happened.

0

scottilicious

1 month ago

What's interesting to me is that there do seem to be some skilled people on both sides of this market from a glance at the profiles. Ultimately I think the Israelis value their ground troops more than to put them in an obvious quagmire and that any ground incursion will be quick, precise, and limited in scope hence a NO result in this market. Also, noone cares about this here but cosmically I'd rather be on the NO side even if I lose 50k I can afford it, playing with house money. Also the apolyptical certainty, vehemence of the YES peeps makes me want to hold onto my NO to fruition because I've noticed those types of attitudes on here are usually wrong.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

scottilicious

1 month ago

What's interesting to me is that there do seem to be some skilled people on both sides of this market from a glance at the profiles. Ultimately I think the Israelis value their ground troops more than to put them in an obvious quagmire and that any ground incursion will be quick, precise, and limited in scope hence a NO result in this market. Also, noone cares about this here but cosmically I'd rather be on the NO side even if I lose 50k I can afford it, playing with house money. Also the apolyptical certainty, vehemence of the YES peeps makes me want to hold onto my NO to fruition because I've noticed those types of attitudes on here are usually wrong.

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

scottilicious

1 month ago

Keep in mind, a limited cross border ground raid or two does not fulfill the rules. It must be "intended to establish control" ie. an invasion.

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

scottilicious

1 month ago

Per Bloomberg "A picture of Israel’s intentions for Lebanon is beginning to emerge: No ground invasion is imminent; instead, the aim appears to be to restore deterrence and degrade Hezbollah to the point where it’s incapable of continuing the rocket and missile attacks it’s been making on Israel since Oct. 8 last year."

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

scottilicious

1 month ago

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-09-20/israel-s-plans-for-hezbollah-are-becoming-clearer?sref=VXRNsnoL

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

scottilicious

1 month ago

Still ragin' ... It's good you started the weekend early. But are you gonna come down in time for church on Sunday?

0

CometoJesusMoment

1 month ago

scottilicious is gonna lose 40.000$ in a few days, his manipulations are not going to work, the price will suddenly go to 99c and the pathetic guy won't even be able to sell anything what he's got. so do never listen maniplators.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

scottilicious

1 month ago

I want some of whatever you had, as long as it's natural and not synthetic.

5

CometoJesusMoment

1 month ago

"Israel commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Lebanon" IS DONE! This market will be solved YES!!

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

scottilicious

1 month ago

Be careful. The September proposition is more clearly about just entering. This one is about establishing control over a portion of a state which is very different. Don't get carried away in your certainty...

0

MisTKy

1 month ago

If you guys are betting thinking that rules are unclear your very wrong. If Israel will enter Lebanon, it woun't be something debatable. They will probably announce it and the intent will be to retain control over that area. They woun't invade whole Lebanon probably just try to create a area of a couple of Km. Don t get scammed by Car.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

scottilicious

1 month ago

Your analysis is incredible. What a display of intellectual prowess! I'm in awe.

0

Offensive

1 month ago

bro you lose your money soon. dont worry

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

scottilicious

1 month ago

The rules seem to stipulate an invasion meant to establish control vs an operation meant to take out specific targets so there is some legitimate nuance there.

0

MisTKy

1 month ago

If you guys are betting thinking that rules are unclear your very wrong. If Israel will enter Lebanon, it woun't be something debatable. They will probably announce it and the intent will be to retain control over that area. They woun't invade whole Lebanon probably just try to create a area of a couple of Km. Don t get scammed by Car.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

scottilicious

1 month ago

“Israel should bide its time and develop its capabilities until it can fight a decisive war,” urged Ortal. “If we go into Lebanon now, we’ll have to do it again in another couple of years. Better not to do it twice.”

2

scottilicious

1 month ago

Informative article: https://www.timesofisrael.com/while-still-in-gaza-israel-has-no-good-options-in-lebanon-but-it-may-invade-anyway/

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

scottilicious

1 month ago

Informative article: https://www.timesofisrael.com/while-still-in-gaza-israel-has-no-good-options-in-lebanon-but-it-may-invade-anyway/

2

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

scottilicious

1 month ago

stamina /ˈstamɪnə/ noun the ability to sustain prolonged physical or mental effort.

0

CometoJesusMoment

1 month ago

Note that for the bet to result in a yes, Israel does not need to occupy a territory, it only needs to establish a military offensive to occupy it.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

scottilicious

1 month ago

"intended to establish control" ie. with the intent to occupy it. That means cross border raids and incursions don't count unless they're meant to establish a zone that is controlled by Israel

0

CometoJesusMoment

1 month ago

Note that for the bet to result in a yes, Israel does not need to occupy a territory, it only needs to establish a military offensive to occupy it.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

scottilicious

1 month ago

* Southern Lebanon

0

scottilicious

1 month ago

interesting article on terrain in Northern Lebanon https://www.businessinsider.com/hezbollah-has-the-firepower-to-ambush-israeli-tanks-in-lebanon-2024-7

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

scottilicious

1 month ago

interesting article on terrain in Northern Lebanon https://www.businessinsider.com/hezbollah-has-the-firepower-to-ambush-israeli-tanks-in-lebanon-2024-7

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

scottilicious

1 month ago

source?

0

CometoJesusMoment

1 month ago

Residents in Northern Israel are reporting a Significant Movement of Israeli Military Equipment, including Tanks and Artillery, towards the Border with Lebanon.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

scottilicious

1 month ago

I probably forgot more about the Middle East than you will know in eight lifetimes. I'm glad you're so adamant. I don't lend much credence to people who are overly certain about their predictions on events they can't control and your commentary makes me more comfortable with my bet.

0

CometoJesusMoment

1 month ago

You will lose 45 thousand dollars coz you aint know anything 'bout the Middle East.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

scottilicious

1 month ago

Don't underestimate the power of psycho Sara N.

1

just.some.guy

1 month ago

I think Gallant is toast. Actuallly, they should make a market on that.

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

scottilicious

1 month ago

Just Dull Vance compared Trump to Hitler before he lost his marbles and went all in on the Maga cult. Not exactly an impartial trusted source lol

0

Mountainman

1 month ago

JD Vance is literally talking about it now as well. This is full blown insanity that this is even being considered settling as a "NO"

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

scottilicious

1 month ago

The document does not show who signed it, and thus it can't be verified that it comes from someone tied to ABC. This isn't rocket science, but basic 6th grade level analysis here. If you went on UMA, you would just look like you're silly with poor analytical skills and people would still vote no. Best take a breather go on a walk and think twice next time about gambling on a dubious document put out by some anonymous hack on Twitter.

5

Mountainman

1 month ago

I want to vote on the UMA forum but due to the fact that I have a new Discord, I can not for 10 day. If anyone would like to do it for me, here it is:

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

scottilicious

1 month ago

Ya that was my dumbest move of the month , should've been more patient. Holding firm though!

0

just.some.guy

1 month ago

This is the most active I've ever seen an Israeli market's comments section. Good work; it's always nice to hear other folks' points of view.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

scottilicious

1 month ago

If you were the Israelis, would you do this just prior to the Jewish holidays and an uncertain US election? Hmmm

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

scottilicious

1 month ago

Rumors that Bibi's wife doesn't like the guy who would ostensibly replace Gallant (who is weary of Lebanon ground invasion).

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

scottilicious

1 month ago

@MissTKY MissTK I like most of your bets, they're sensible enough. Yes it's a risky bet but I don't think now is any riskier than it has been in the last few months. The pager thing was more psychological warfare than anything, Hezbollah can still communicate. I don't think that was as much of an ace in hand. Probably shoulda gone less aggressive on this one but I'm standing firm. Also note that an attack and an invasion meant to keep territory have very different outcomes for this bet.

2

nnimrodd

1 month ago

Obviously Israel will end up entering Lebanon a little bit till Nov. More likely than not

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

scottilicious

1 month ago

Status quo most likely until at least US elections. Also Gallant who doesn't want Bibi to hit Lebanon is proving resilient. IMO

0

nnimrodd

1 month ago

Obviously Israel will end up entering Lebanon a little bit till Nov. More likely than not

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

scottilicious

1 month ago

I think if they do that they set themselves up for a three front war, so it seems unlikely, albeit possible.

0

BennyS

1 month ago

I think that, since it has been nearly a year since the conflict began, and Israel has stable control in Rafah, Netanyahu is shifting to Lebanon. The IDF has already been notified that they should be prepared for deployment. Clearly, drone and missiles are not sufficient in securing the North, so Israel will likely try to create a buffer zone between Israel and Lebanon.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

scottilicious

1 month ago

So they're just letting their enemy know ahead of time prior to attacking? Makes perfect sense. You should buy more yes.

0

satoshi sir

1 month ago

Israli Radio: the head of the Northern commander says his forces are ready to occupy a "security zone" on the Lebanese side

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

scottilicious

1 month ago

I commend your astute grasp of irony.

0

Mountainman

1 month ago

It feels like you’re trying too hard to sound intellectual, but instead, it comes off as overly complicated without adding much substance. The use of overly formal language a doesn’t really enhance the message—if anything, it muddles it. It’s like you’re using big words to cover up for a lack of clarity or real insight. Sometimes, when people try to overcompensate with fancy language, it can actually have the opposite effect, making them sound less intelligent because the message gets lost in all the fluff.

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

scottilicious

1 month ago

I beg to differ. A sound mind and the TDS that accompanies it, are not indicative of talking down. Though sanity and TDS may at times correlate, that correlation does not imply causation, nor does it extend to the variable of talking down. Thus this analysis should be viewed as explicatory , and not ad hoc. Do note however that the munificence I've displayed by trying to warn you is by nature discrete; I will keep your money when the witching hour is upon us.

0

Mountainman

1 month ago

People with TDS like to talk down to others. You bought an insane amount of this and you can not leave this trade. You have no liquidity to dump into. We will see you at Midnight :)

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

scottilicious

1 month ago

Better informed people who have done the research are trying to help the Maga crowd that buying "yes" will result in huge disappointment and no tangible gains. Maga peeps say "screw you," we believe. Polymarket imitates life?

1

ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?

scottilicious

1 month ago

Somehow it all sounds too familiar. A better informed, hell, more intelligent person is trying to help these fools and they're stubbornly delusional, hell bent on doing something that will ultimately affect them in a very negative manner. Sounds oddly familiar.

1

mapicap

1 month ago

HAHAH polymarket has to be the greatest money redistributing scheme from MAGA to sane people. The frantic link spamming won’t help you, if you’re too iliterate to read the rules. It’s right there in the “Additional Context”. It has to be confirmed by credible sources that THE WHISTLEBLOWER HAS TO HAVE RELATION TO ABC. Magas not being able to read surprises no one though.

Who will win the debate according to polls?

scottilicious

1 month ago

On point re winning Maga money... last election they thought he would be reinstated. It truly is manna from heaven, and the best capitalist practice of taking money from the less intelligent and redirecting it to where it belongs.

0

Paisan

1 month ago

This may be news to the people claiming Trump won the debate, but call-in or self-selected internet polls have no statistical validity. They are not randomly selected. But keep telling yourself that if the Proud Boys think he won, the American people do as well.

Who will win the debate according to polls?

scottilicious

1 month ago

Did we watch the same debate lol she ran circles around his tired old ass.

1

Teumpwillwin

1 month ago

The majority of people online say Trump won; it's just the leftist echo chamber and whales in betting markets manipulating the narrative. Trump objectively had better "gotcha" moments, while she was flip-flopping and appeared nervous. Hundreds of polls on X, Instagram, and even CSPAN show that Trump won overwhelmingly. There's a reason her team is desperately pushing for a second debate—they know she's losing. Don’t let the media shape the narrative; she didn’t perform well at all. There's also a reason why CNN gave Trump a win against Biden but not Kamala, because back in June, the media was in on the coup to remove Biden.

What will Walz say during CNN interview?

scottilicious

1 month ago

scammer much?

0

northman

1 month ago

We're in talks with Shayne, he will override the wrongful UMA decision and resolve to No, as P1-No is clearly the correct choice. Sell Yes as long as you can.

What will Walz say during CNN interview?

scottilicious

1 month ago

It's not a huge mess that you lost your long shot gamble. As my mom used to say when I was little, the world does not revolve around you.

2

Panzwalizka

1 month ago

wow will be huge mess. people will not forget it.

What will Walz say during CNN interview?

scottilicious

1 month ago

You might convince a few peeps but not anyone who has been on here more than a few days IMO.

0

YatSen

1 month ago

Think about it, polymarket didn't add any additional context this time.

What will Walz say during CNN interview?

scottilicious

1 month ago

or they just don't see a need because it's so obvious.

0

YatSen

1 month ago

What both YES and NO holders agree on is that UMA is trash; you never know which way those UMAwhales will vote.

What will Walz say during CNN interview?

scottilicious

1 month ago

Automatic subtitles on X are now the authority? roflmao

1

Plutos

1 month ago

I must say he didnt say teacher, the automatic subtitles on X are also not referring to the word. He just says english and then goes on to talk about grammatical deficits. lmao.

What will Walz say during CNN interview?

scottilicious

1 month ago

It's very clear, he just says it in a slighly lower volume. It's not a controversial market. The fact that you spent a few hundo or a grand on a lottery ticket doesn't make it a controversial market ;)

1

YatSen

1 month ago

Think about it, polymarket didn't add any additional context this time.

What will Walz say during CNN interview?

scottilicious

1 month ago

I'm curious though when you bought up AOC to win the popular vote, did you really think that would happen?

0

YatSen

1 month ago

Think about it, polymarket didn't add any additional context this time.

What will Walz say during CNN interview?

scottilicious

1 month ago

I listened to the clip and he clearly said teacher.

0

YatSen

1 month ago

Think about it, polymarket didn't add any additional context this time.

What will Walz say during CNN interview?

scottilicious

1 month ago

I thought about it.

2

YatSen

1 month ago

Think about it, polymarket didn't add any additional context this time.

What will Walz say during CNN interview?

scottilicious

1 month ago

Are you sure your name isn't Skip-Earwax?

1

Skip-Earthwax

1 month ago

"My wife the English she/her"

What will Walz say during CNN interview?

scottilicious

1 month ago

Wow you bet a whole dollar. That's incredible! What amazing conviction!

0

Bumba

1 month ago

he legit did not say teacher. former yes holder btw

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

scottilicious

1 month ago

lying sack of shit or subpar intelligence: the no commitments was in reference to a cabinet position not in reference to the endorsement which he did not deny... good luck shilling your bags clown

2

vote.fun

1 month ago

P4 (Too early) RFK CONFIRMS IN NEW FOX INTERVIEW HE HAS NOT ENDORSED TRUMP (TIMESTAMP 1:05): Reporter: Have you talked about a cabinet position or another position in exchange for your endorsement? RFK: NO, THERE HAVE BEEN NO COMMITMENTS, we spoke with trump and made a general commitment we were going to work together. https://x.com/robertkennedyjr/status/1827749244918522023

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

scottilicious

1 month ago

I think you should seek help. $3,000,000 volume to make 20k? U need a mentor.

0

hillary2win

1 month ago

Team NO

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

scottilicious

1 month ago

He said it was tough for his family, Trump's VP just thanked him for the endorsment. You may want to switch back so you don't lose $

0

LMNOP

1 month ago

RFK very carefully chose his words and deliberately did not use "endorse". He disagrees with a lot of Trump's policies so much so that he cannot in good conscience to himself, his family, or his supporters endorse him.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

scottilicious

1 month ago

old article pre-endorsment, but nice try

0

0xB28d604F9434467c12DACEF78f10fB876745cf67-1724442052721

1 month ago

This isn’t even a debate… https://floridapolitics.com/archives/692379-rfk-jr-says-he-is-suspending-not-ending-his-campaign-his-campaign-says-he-has-not-endorsed-trump/. “ “Mr. Kennedy has not endorsed President Trump,” said spokesperson Stefanie Spear. “The filing was made by an attorney and not reviewed by the campaign.” She said the filing would be updated.”

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

scottilicious

1 month ago

um that article is from before Kennedy went on stage with Trump and endorsed him

1

vote.fun

1 month ago

This isn’t even a debate… will resolve p4. sell yes while you can https://floridapolitics.com/archives/692379-rfk-jr-says-he-is-suspending-not-ending-his-campaign-his-campaign-says-he-has-not-endorsed-trump/. “ “Mr. Kennedy has not endorsed President Trump,” said spokesperson Stefanie Spear. “The filing was made by an attorney and not reviewed by the campaign.” She said the filing would be updated.”

Andrew Tate arrested in August?

scottilicious

1 month ago

You have such a huge wager on this! Incredible conviction!

3

0x3b661aaee85b135a84f35171bcDaeD15df4F4D05-1724359323606

1 month ago

Andrew Tate's situation in August 2024 fits the definition of a **detention** rather than an arrest. While he was detained by Romanian authorities for questioning related to new allegations of human trafficking, the court placed him under house arrest rather than formally arresting him. A detention typically involves being held temporarily for investigation or questioning, whereas an arrest usually involves formal charges and being taken into custody. In this case, Tate was detained and subsequently placed under house arrest pending further investigation. - Chat GPT

Andrew Tate arrested in August?

scottilicious

2 months ago

I'm shocked; you don't say?

0

FyouMoneyOTW

2 months ago

Any opinion on the matter, I haven’t been on polymarket for long

Andrew Tate arrested in August?

scottilicious

2 months ago

It's called house arrest.

0

FyouMoneyOTW

2 months ago

New Market should start on how many extensions “Initially, the police can detain a suspect for 24 hours, and this can be extended for up to 30 days by a judge if there is sufficient evidence to justify the continuation of detention. Regarding the number of times authorities can extend detention, the Romanian Penal Procedure Code generally allows for multiple extensions, but there are limits. Specifically, the total duration of preventive detention cannot exceed 180 days.”

Andrew Tate arrested in August?

scottilicious

2 months ago

I feel like there are some manipulative types on here trying to be slick to benefit from market volatility. But how convoluted does an argument have to be to say that house arrest isn't a form of arrest? That's crazy.

1

Andrew Tate arrested in August?

scottilicious

2 months ago

Changing one's mind is not always indicative of intelligence.

0

vamps

2 months ago

Even @car who bought first YES selled all his YES and now bought NO because he is smart

Andrew Tate arrested in August?

scottilicious

2 months ago

The question is not about the vagaries of the Romanian court system, it's about whether he was arrested. Being put in jail overnight with new potential charges being announced at the same time would meet most people's definition of arrest. Even if the Romanian court system has a different word for it.

0

♦️CFTC♦️

2 months ago

This is not a pump by me, there is no pump in the world that can save me man. The reason I switched to no is because, among other things, I read this: DIICOT asked the Bucharest court to arrest the Tate brothers for 30 days, but the judge decided to place Andrew Tate under house arrest and Tristan under judiciary control for that period, their representative Mateea Petrescu said.

Andrew Tate arrested in August?

scottilicious

2 months ago

So Mr. Testicle, thank you for gracing us with your legal prowess and eminence. just to make sure I understand this prooperly. Arrest is arrest, but arrest followed by house arrest makes it not an arrest anymore?

1

♦️CFTC♦️

2 months ago

This is not a pump by me, there is no pump in the world that can save me man. The reason I switched to no is because, among other things, I read this: DIICOT asked the Bucharest court to arrest the Tate brothers for 30 days, but the judge decided to place Andrew Tate under house arrest and Tristan under judiciary control for that period, their representative Mateea Petrescu said.

Andrew Tate arrested in August?

scottilicious

2 months ago

That was interesting .... got some good fills whatever the hell it was!

1

Mountainman

2 months ago

What the hell just happened?

Andrew Tate arrested in August?

scottilicious

2 months ago

exactly. I don't know how this is any less than 99.7 right now but hey free money is just fine.

0

Fatboyslim

2 months ago

A house arrest is a type of arrest, hence the name. But regardless, he was arrested and put in handcuffs prior to the house arrest

Andrew Tate arrested in August?

scottilicious

2 months ago

BBC referred to arrestation and new charges

0

Car

2 months ago

Placed under house arrest, representative says

Andrew Tate arrested in August?

scottilicious

2 months ago

Mmm it sure seems like getting handcuffed , spending the night in prison, and having to go to court to discuss specific new charges is an arrest but what do I know?

3

Andrew Tate arrested in August?

scottilicious

2 months ago

confirmed by who? You have a source?

0

abee-Capital-Management

2 months ago

Confirmed: he was detained, not arrested, let’s see what happens today with the judge

Andrew Tate arrested in August?

scottilicious

2 months ago

What discord is this being discussed on? Can't seem to find it on UMA....

0

Will Biden announce resignation by July 31?

scottilicious

3 months ago

If I were a Republican operative wanting to shift the narrative away from Kamala, spending a few tens of thousands of dollars to manipulate a market like this to make it seem like there is a chance in hell (which there isn't) that Biden will resign the presidency would not be a bad use of a few bucks. Dude literally said in the latter he was looking forward to serving out the rest of his term. This move this morning felt manipulated. Just sayin'

1

Biden senile during the debate?

scottilicious

3 months ago

non-sequitur

1

aenews2

3 months ago

Biden crashed again, and drop out went to 50c. Very much doubt this market resolves to N at this point...

Biden senile during the debate?

scottilicious

3 months ago

This is misinformation, Dem party not calling on him to step down.

0

Mrben

3 months ago

@cuccyboy Must have been watching an old debate. The Democratic Party is calling for Biden to step aside. This is not because of a “bad debate performance”. This is because people are legitimately concerned for this man’s well being. Democratic nominees have had bad debates in the past, CNN never called for them to step aside. Secondly, if you can compare this to the SOTU address and think it’s even remotely the same then you are seriously delusional. At the end of the day, Polymarket should not put up such subjective markets like this but what’s done is done and there is no question that President Biden was senile during this debate. Let’s not waste time arguing here and get UMA to decide this already.

Biden senile during the debate?

scottilicious

3 months ago

very coherent analysis. There's a reason the rules were written the way they were.

1

TheWolfOfPolymarket

3 months ago

"showing poor mental ability because of old age, especially being unable to think clearly and make decisions:" According to this definition he is senile. According to the rules of this market "persistent incoherence, confusion, inability to follow the debate format, or prolonged periods of non-responsiveness." I don't think those standards are met. There was incoherence, but not persistent as he was coherent for at least half of the debate (still a terrible performance), he wasn't really confused, just slow or very slow, he followed the debate format, and he wasn't really unresponsive for prolonged periods of time. So it's a close call but it weighs more towards "No" according to the specific rules laid out, in my opionion (I have no stake).

Biden senile during the debate?

scottilicious

3 months ago

Like carr said he was old, slow, and at times confused but at no point did this rise to the level of persistent senility. Biden is known to have trouble with words, nothing out of character..

1

Trump says boden in debate?

scottilicious

4 months ago

Could someone please explain wtf is up with this market like how did it come about?

0

Is $DJT real?

scottilicious

4 months ago

sure seems like it

0

truthteller

4 months ago

yes, there's 0 chance this goes YES, so it's free money

Is $DJT real?

scottilicious

4 months ago

thx

0

imp

4 months ago

Yes

Is $DJT real?

scottilicious

4 months ago

Can we still bet on this during the dispute period?

1

Did Barron Trump launch $DJT?

scottilicious

4 months ago

and anonymous posters popping up with little activity saying I have record of telling lies even though it's the first time I've posted, but are willing to trust M. Shkrelli. It doesn't get any weirder than this.

1

dacoop1

4 months ago

i swear people not even the rules of the bet and go "IT WAS SAID IN SPACES BY THIS GUY SO MUST BE TRUE"

Did Barron Trump launch $DJT?

scottilicious

4 months ago

direct involvement IN THE LAUNCH. Not convos about the launch, openness to discussing it. But direct involvement in the actual launch with definitive evidence. That's a high bar to cross man. Promises to be interesting in any case...

0

truthteller

4 months ago

It was more involvement than what ur claiming. It def was direct involvement. Whether or not it will be definitively proven is another matter. But guarantee he will have ppl log into his acct and verify the authenticity. He's alrdy done this

Did Barron Trump launch $DJT?

scottilicious

4 months ago

involved to some degree does not translate to "direct involvement" Shkrelli trying to convince Baron to put his name on it and Baron being semi receptive to hearing him out does not translate to direct involvement in the launch. Good luck to U.

1

truthteller

4 months ago

ya I actually do, I listened to everything and he's definitely telling the truth fwiw. He def lied at the beginning about donald trump being involved or whatever but barron was definitely involved to some degree

Did Barron Trump launch $DJT?

scottilicious

4 months ago

you trust Shrkelli? I wouldn't be surprised if he were spouting his BS on spaces and buying up the "No" on here. Pure speculation but wouldn't put it past him.

1

truthteller

4 months ago

the leaks won't be stopping here and there are 3 more days. There will be more spaces and more evidence coming out

Did Barron Trump launch $DJT?

scottilicious

4 months ago

public service announcement: Key word here is "directly" involved. Definitive evidence of direct involvement seems like a hard bar and goes beyond screenshots of conversation by a known scammer.

3