Virginia Presidential Election Winner

homosexual

1 month ago

I love spreading misinformation and propaganda on the Internet

1

0x3cbd4bBe96B128C7fA4Ed462784584C659De015F-1723225664974

1 month ago

walz put tampons in boys school bathrooms and allowed children to get sex change ops even without their parents permission - i thought virgina elected a republican governor - because the government was taking away parental rights over THEIR children - so why would this state vote for kamala/walz ?????

Ohio Presidential Election Winner

homosexual

1 month ago

Don't get scammed my friends. Polymarket is full of scammers! https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/ohio/

0

Ohio Presidential Election Winner

homosexual

1 month ago

Aaron I literally sent a link above that proves to you that it is not the only poll. Why the hell would there be only one poll over a yearlong period for one of the most scrutinized elections ever?

0

Andy-Beshear

1 month ago

Getting very competitive in Ohio! (conservative pollster): https://x.com/iapolls2022/status/1825299316300554294

Pavel Durov released in August?

homosexual

1 month ago

lol yeah that's just made up

1

darrrenen

1 month ago

maximum 96 hours. from french law

Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?

homosexual

1 month ago

Who was filing that lawsuit btw? Guarantee 100% that if you put this in front of a judge they would agree with the NO side here and on the other market. This is a site for folks with lots of money to rig votes, so don't bother, and immediately move to another site that doesn't go by UMA

2

Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?

homosexual

1 month ago

This is your sign to move to another betting site ASAP. I am doing this as quickly as possible. You can't be putting money on sites that engage in market manipulation and scams like this.

1

AG1234

1 month ago

Reminder he didn't drop out: https://x.com/GiggityTitties/status/1827397843579011550 and https://x.com/iamagoose69/status/1827907786472071294 and he continues to campaign + officials from his website say he hasn't dropped out: https://x.com/joeywhoma/status/1827847110596690423 + his VP/others state he hasn't dropped out, also: https://x.com/K8568088581417/status/1827909805228367952

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

homosexual

1 month ago

And that seals the deal -- I will be using an actually consistent betting site instead from now on!

5

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

homosexual

1 month ago

RFK Jr's campaign says repeatedly that they are not endorsing Trump, UMA still proceeds to vote against the evidence

2

Pavel Durov released in August?

homosexual

1 month ago

Insane stuff. Scary implications for privacy and security.

3

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

"Pavel Durov will end up in pretrial detention, that's for sure ," comments an investigator with TF1/LCI. "On his platform, he allowed an incalculable number of offences and crimes to be committed, for which he did nothing to moderate or cooperate ," analyses a source close to the case. His pre-trial detention following his indictment is indeed beyond doubt. Pavel Durov, a billionaire, has the means to escape and his guarantees of representation will hardly convince the judges.

Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by Aug 31?

homosexual

1 month ago

I agree that it's a bit dystopic and may even encourage antisocial behavior. But that's what we've got. Might as well profit from it and put the profit to something good.

1

diddy

1 month ago

It’s really sad people betting for virus to come. I still feel bad when I bet that Biden is dead. Find better betts, YES holders.

Trump prison time in NY case before election?

homosexual

1 month ago

CZ and SBF committed financial crimes which hurt the capitalist class and investors. Anything else doesn't really matter to courts. But even so, that doesn't change the reality that most billionaires don't go to jail.

1

basedd

1 month ago

hmm heard this before. guess both cz and sbf are(or were) billionaires

Ohio Presidential Election Winner

homosexual

1 month ago

I understand that, Aaron. But this is your best poll, and by your own underestimate, it's not a competitive margin. Additionally, one poll is essentially meaningless in a large election like this. What matters more is the average, which is clearly not competitive either. It's like a +9 Trump average

0

Andy-Beshear

1 month ago

Getting very competitive in Ohio! (conservative pollster): https://x.com/iapolls2022/status/1825299316300554294

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

homosexual

1 month ago

you should join team NO then

1

SpaceNewsDotTech

1 month ago

Just google it, Google says " suspended" and "backs trump"

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

homosexual

1 month ago

Waiting on YES holders to send over the direct responses they got from the RFK Jr campaign! Because I'm sure each and every one of them were confident enough in their bets to directly ask them.

2

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

homosexual

1 month ago

Reiterating: Bernie market had essentially the same conditions as this market, and it resolved NO despite him actively and consistently throwing support behind Kamala, because he did not formally endorse: https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-endorse-kamala/bernie-sanders-endorses-kamala-as-dem-nominee?tid=1724535251232. AP reported that the campaign specifically stated that they were NOT endorsing Trump: https://apnews.com/article/trump-harris-vance-walz-election-dnc-93dc79917053d8c97db4bb9cd6b0130d#. The campaign specifically withdrew an incorrect filing which falsely claimed the campaign would endorse Trump, and specifically removed the part about endorsing Trump: https://edition.cnn.com/2024/08/23/politics/read-rfk-jr-pennsylvania-court-filing/index.html His VP specified that they are NOT endorsing any person or party, only certain policies: https://x.com/NicoleShanahan/status/1827020725309653431 Direct contact with the campaign also confirms he did not endorse (independent verification, which you can literally do yourself right now and find the answer).

2

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

homosexual

1 month ago

No it doesn't LOL

4

BlueSky123

1 month ago

Throwing his support to President Trump and joining the Trump campaign suffices as an endorsement, hence this market should resolve to "Yes."

Will Todd Fine win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

homosexual

1 month ago

I don't even know which Todd Fine this is referring to

1

Will Kamala flip Trump on Polymarket in August?

homosexual

1 month ago

tbh I think this is mostly a ploy for people to put more money on both sides in the presidential election market

0

n/a

1 month ago

bets on polymarket about polymarket shouldnt exist imo. too many conspiracies are born lol

Will Kamala flip Trump on Polymarket in August?

homosexual

1 month ago

we should have this market

0

n/a

1 month ago

I think that Will "Will 'Will Kamala flip Trump on Polymarket in August?' go under 50% in August?" will go under 50% in August. Will.

What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?

homosexual

1 month ago

I think the problem here is that there are different standards for what a compound word is. Most dictionaries don't consider it a compound but Merriam-Webster does. I don't think you guys are going to win the Yes on this one, but I think 50-50 would be reasonable

1

gpsmatty

1 month ago

Doing some research before voting on this, based on: https://www.merriam-webster.com/grammar/spelling-using-compound-words-guide/prefixed-suffixed-and-combining-form-compounds this should resolve to Yes

Andrew Tate arrested in August?

homosexual

1 month ago

Yeah, and people got 25x on Beyonce not being at the DNC, Bernie not endorsing Kamala Harris, Trump committing to a Bitcoin reserve, the Venezuela election. It's not that crazy.

0

Mountainman

1 month ago

hahaha Highest bid is currently at .04 and people seriously still think they can win this. That would be a 25x.

Andrew Tate arrested in August?

homosexual

1 month ago

Yeah, and people got 25x on Beyonce not being at the DNC, 25x on Bernie not endorsing Kamala Harris, 25x on Trump committing to a Bitcoin reserve, 25x on the Venezuela election. Not so crazy.

0

Mountainman

1 month ago

hahaha Highest bid is currently at .04 and people seriously still think they can win this. That would be a 25x.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

homosexual

1 month ago

wait could you buy more yes rq, I want more cheap shares

0

scattering

1 month ago

gonna sell my yes shares while i can

Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?

homosexual

1 month ago

RFK Jr "I am not terminating my campaign. I am simply suspending it, and not ending it. ... I encourage you to vote for me." https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sp4bsTklpnk&t=1046s

7

Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?

homosexual

1 month ago

they should refund because they engaged in market manipulation to convince a bunch of people to invest in YES.

2

Mountainman

1 month ago

If this goes "NO" what will Polymarket do with all of the other previous decided markets that have already gone in favor of him dropping out?

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

homosexual

1 month ago

LOL good point. Add it to the pile of evidence

8

KamalaTheGreat

1 month ago

RFK Jr's wife litterally said she'd leave him if he had anything to do with the RNC. He just can't say it.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

homosexual

1 month ago

Reiterating here what people have said: Bernie market had essentially the same conditions as this market, and it resolved NO despite him actively and consistently throwing support behind Kamala, because he did not formally endorse: https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-endorse-kamala/bernie-sanders-endorses-kamala-as-dem-nominee?tid=1724535251232. AP reported that the campaign specifically stated that they were NOT endorsing Trump: https://apnews.com/article/trump-harris-vance-walz-election-dnc-93dc79917053d8c97db4bb9cd6b0130d#. The campaign specifically withdrew an incorrect filing which falsely claimed the campaign would endorse Trump, and specifically removed the part about endorsing Trump: https://edition.cnn.com/2024/08/23/politics/read-rfk-jr-pennsylvania-court-filing/index.html His VP specified that they are NOT endorsing any person or party, only certain policies: https://x.com/NicoleShanahan/status/1827020725309653431 Direct contact with the campaign also confirms he did not endorse (independent verification, which you can literally do yourself right now and find the answer).

9

·

Liked by aenews2, EmpirePend... and 7 others

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

homosexual

1 month ago

Is that why you sold all your YES shares?

7

Justifax

1 month ago

After this goes to 99.9, please don't go crying because you bought a bunch based on scammers in the comments below and on UMA. You were warned many many times that this was a pump and dump scheme.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

homosexual

1 month ago

Classic sunk cost fallacy. I feel for them, but they should really clear their eyes a bit.

0

BallzToTheWalz

1 month ago

I mean in fairness I get their stance and we paid nothing for our shares whereas they paid a shitload so I get it

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

homosexual

1 month ago

I think it's apt because most of the media swore on all of their mothers' lives that Beyonce was going to perform at the DNC. Goes alllll the way to 99ct+ based on that alone, then surprise, surprise, the media gets things wrong all the time, and those that actually clarified with the DNC found that she was never scheduled (e.g., WSJ in that case). Don't accept the headlines, look for the evidence, which the YES side clearly doesn't have since they can't offer anything here. Or do, I don't care, maybe I can buy more NO shares if it gets to 2ct again.

0

scattering

1 month ago

comparing beyonce to this lol

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

homosexual

1 month ago

Nope. Just like how Bernie said he would back the Kamala Harris campaign, but he never made a formal endorsement.

0

bl4ckdyn4m1t3 - 2119

1 month ago

RFK himself said he's joining the campaign and was at Trump's rally last night. Do you think those are not endorsements?

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

homosexual

1 month ago

more embarrassing for the guy who only read the first document in the article and sent the link as if it supported the YES case

4

EmpirePending

1 month ago

This is the biggest piece of evidence and nobody here has posted it. A CNN report detailing the exact court filings RFK’s lawyers filed which originally stated it was an endorsement and was later retracted and edited to make it clear it was not a formal endorsement. This is the single biggest piece of evidence and this market must be resolved as no!

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

homosexual

1 month ago

Join the UMA Discord, state your case in #evidence-rationale, and vote at the bottom link in #vote-announcements in the next 30 mins. The consensus right now is very clearly that it's too early to call, but folks still have to turn out

6

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

homosexual

1 month ago

We did already post it. Yes votes don't care becasue they don't know what an endorsement is

5

EmpirePending

1 month ago

This is the biggest piece of evidence and nobody here has posted it. A CNN report detailing the exact court filings RFK’s lawyers filed which originally stated it was an endorsement and was later retracted and edited to make it clear it was not a formal endorsement. This is the single biggest piece of evidence and this market must be resolved as no!

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

homosexual

1 month ago

Summary of evidence: Bernie market had essentially the same conditions as this market, and it resolved NO despite him actively and consistently throwing support behind Kamala, because he did not formally endorse: https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-endorse-kamala/bernie-sanders-endorses-kamala-as-dem-nominee?tid=1724535251232. AP reported that the campaign specifically stated that they were NOT endorsing Trump: https://apnews.com/article/trump-harris-vance-walz-election-dnc-93dc79917053d8c97db4bb9cd6b0130d#. The campaign specifically withdrew an incorrect filing which falsely claimed the campaign would endorse Trump, and specifically removed the part about endorsing Trump: https://edition.cnn.com/2024/08/23/politics/read-rfk-jr-pennsylvania-court-filing/index.html Direct contact with the campaign also confirms he did not endorse (independent verification, which you can literally do yourself right now and find the answer, which is why I am baffled there are still so many YES holders).

11

·

Liked by LMNOP, n/a and 9 others

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

homosexual

1 month ago

As it was an incorrect filing, it obviously does not mean an endorsement. It's like if you hired someone to do your tax filings and they incorrectly reported you having a $200k income when your actual income was $60k. I guess you have a $200k income now because it was filed as such on your behalf! Ok, but you can ask yourself and your bank account, do you actually get $200k income? Obviously not because you're broke. Trying to be a little silly with the analogy here but basically if the legal filing is incorrect, and it is then corrected, the filing is not an endorsement.

1

bl4ckdyn4m1t3 - 2119

1 month ago

Anybody arguing no doesn't understand that the endorsement still happened. Even if it's retracted, it still occurred. If you reach the 50 yard line and then lose yards, you still reached the 50 on that drive. Same thing.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

homosexual

1 month ago

Lawyers made a filing that did not align with the actual campaign, so no. That's why the filing was amended.

3

bl4ckdyn4m1t3 - 2119

1 month ago

Anybody arguing no doesn't understand that the endorsement still happened. Even if it's retracted, it still occurred. If you reach the 50 yard line and then lose yards, you still reached the 50 on that drive. Same thing.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

homosexual

1 month ago

Thanks for supporting (but not endorsing) the NO side with this comment. RFK Jr is not dropping out in California and he will be voting for himself.

0

Justifax

1 month ago

What scammers like aenews didn't tell you becuase it woud ruin their pump and dump scheme, is that this market only requires that rfk had to say he'd vote for trump. Bill Bar who hates trumps guts says he will vote for trump. It was obvious that this market had a very low bar of support required. This is much lower bar than the bernie or even the nikki market that went yes.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

homosexual

1 month ago

It's not the first time people got into collective delusions like this. See the Beyonce DNC market: 99.8 cents one moment, and 0 cents the next. Same for Bernie endorsement (which has the same exact relevant circumstances as this market): 97 cents one moment, and 0 cents the next. People are convinced by headlines put out by media only trying their best to be ahead of other outlets, which frequently results in incorrect reporting, before they find out the actual evidence, as presented here. Ask yourself: Why would RFK Jr's campaign specifically say their lawyers were wrong in saying they would endorse Trump, and then submit an amendment specifically to remove the Trump endorsement, if they are actually endorsing him? https://edition.cnn.com/2024/08/23/politics/read-rfk-jr-pennsylvania-court-filing/index.html

6

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

homosexual

1 month ago

It's not the first time people got into collective delusions like this. See the Beyonce DNC market: 99.8 cents one moment, and 0 cents the next. Same for Bernie endorsement (which has the same exact relevant circumstances as this market): 97 cents one moment, and 0 cents the next. People are convinced by headlines put out by media only trying their best to be ahead of other outlets, which frequently results in incorrect reporting, before they find out the actual evidence, as presented here.

4

n/a

1 month ago

What if a reporter asks RFK if he has "formally endorsed" Trump and he answers no? How dumb does Polymarket look then?

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

homosexual

1 month ago

Read the amended document in the exact same article. They specifically said it was incorrect that they were endorsing Trump, and they updated it accordingly.

4

AG1234

1 month ago

"EKEN SMUCKER : NOTICE Respondents Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Nicole Shanahan as the We The People candidates for President and Vice President of the United States, as a result of today’s endorsement of Donald Trump" - August 23rd https://edition.cnn.com/2024/08/23/politics/read-rfk-jr-pennsylvania-court-filing/index.html

CFB: Florida St. vs. Georgia Tech

homosexual

1 month ago

brutal! Most sports betting models are wrong, especially the ones getting their "odds" from betting sites

0

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

homosexual

1 month ago

gotta get your last few cents in before selling

1

coconutPilled

1 month ago

looks like the jig is up boys. drop the bags

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

homosexual

1 month ago

tryna pump I see

1

coconutPilled

1 month ago

looks like the jig is up boys. drop the bags

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

homosexual

1 month ago

Yes holders here are the same ones who held Yes on Beyonce until the very last minute! Keep trusting gossip media instead of actual evidence, meanwhile the rest of us will be enjoying the 2,500% gains!

1

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

homosexual

1 month ago

I'm more than happy with $185 value! It's a fun game more than anything

0

BallzToTheWalz

1 month ago

awful confident for someone holding only $11 of NO shares

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

homosexual

1 month ago

Yes holders are TERRIFIED of the evidence! They don't want to email RFK Jr and check to make sure, because they know what they're going to say! They plug their ears at the AP reporting and the previous Bernie market! Grab NO while you can!

7

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

homosexual

1 month ago

doesn't look like it to me. Seems like all the evidence is in our favor between the AP's reporting, the direct email/phone communications with the campaign, and the previous Bernie market. Tell me what evidence you have, but I only want to hear it if it's not some garbage that YES holders for Bernie said last month

0

scattering

1 month ago

yes-team assemble

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

homosexual

1 month ago

Aren't you the one coping if you are too scared to act them directly? Why won't you do it?

0

scattering

1 month ago

yes-team assemble

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

homosexual

1 month ago

Directly email or call the RFK Jr campaign right now. Ask them flat out: Is RFK Jr or the campaign endorsing Donald Trump for 2024 president? What do they say?

0

scattering

1 month ago

yes-team assemble

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

homosexual

1 month ago

An honest call to every single YES holder (and I am 100% serious): Directly email or call the RFK Jr campaign right now. Ask them flat out: Is RFK Jr or the campaign endorsing Donald Trump for 2024 president? You can be as specific as you like to make sure there are no holes in the question. Wait for their response (sometimes it's not very long of a wait actually). Please report back your results. At least two people have confirmed with them that it was a clear NO! Let's make it 10 just to make sure!

6

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

homosexual

1 month ago

Is that why the Bernie market resolved to NO? Did you even look? https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-endorse-kamala/bernie-sanders-endorses-kamala-as-dem-nominee?tid=1724528523633

1

Car

1 month ago

this seals the deal. these are his own word:

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

homosexual

1 month ago

UMA votes on it. For contentious ones like this it can take several days to finalize. See the timer on this one as people disputed the incorrect Yes proposal

1

Rainiak

1 month ago

Im new on here does anyone know if they can resolve it randomly at anytime or does it give the result right when the timer is done

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

homosexual

1 month ago

Yes holders don't really have one at all considering the same exact arguments from the Bernie market are just being relitigated here. Kinda proves that it's based on shaky logic.

1

LMNOP

1 month ago

Both Yes holders and No holders are completely rational in their positions here. For all practical purposes, RFK informally endorsed Trump. The catch is "formally endorse" though which is much stronger statement and one RFK has deliberately avoided.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

homosexual

1 month ago

A huge thank you to Polymarket user "Car" for supporting (but not endorsing) the NO case by providing a tweet that confirms what NO holders have been saying the whole time!

7

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

homosexual

1 month ago

I can't believe he said the exact same thing here as his campaign directly emailed me back, and what the AP reports, which is that he supports Trump but is not endorsing. Thanks for supporting but not endorsing the NO case!

3

Car

1 month ago

this seals the deal. these are his own word:

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

homosexual

1 month ago

ctrl+f "endorse". 0 results? Must be a mistake!

4

Car

1 month ago

this seals the deal. these are his own word:

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

homosexual

1 month ago

Bernie constantly demonstrated support for Kamala Harris. But guess what? He never endorsed. He was even explicit about not endorsing. The Bernie market resolved NO! What's different about this market? That YES holders are mostly scammers?

3

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

homosexual

1 month ago

AP Headline: "RFK Jr. says he is suspending, not ending his campaign. His campaign says he ‘has not endorsed Trump’" https://apnews.com/article/trump-harris-vance-walz-election-dnc-93dc79917053d8c97db4bb9cd6b0130d# Bernie market with very similar circumstances as this one resolved NO: https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-endorse-kamala/bernie-sanders-endorses-kamala-as-dem-nominee?tid=1724527653077 If the previous two links aren't convincing enough, YOU should PERSONALLY email or call RFK Jr's campaign RIGHT NOW (you can do this very easily) and ask them like I did. YES holders don't want you to know the answer they'll give you!

2

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

homosexual

1 month ago

just capturing all the waves for maximum profit beyond 2,500%

0

0xE42c9d2ef

1 month ago

If you were so certain you wouldn't have sold almost 6K of your nos's a few minutes ago..

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

homosexual

1 month ago

Bernie said the same thing with Kamala Harris. But he didn't endorse. Look how that market resolved: https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-endorse-kamala/bernie-sanders-endorses-kamala-as-dem-nominee?tid=1724527446407

1

KenMaster

1 month ago

"decision to suspend my campaign and to support President Trump" If this isn't endorsement then what's it then? Resolve=YES!! what's wrong with ya'll

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

homosexual

1 month ago

You -- yes YOU -- can personally call or email the RFK Jr campaign RIGHT NOW and ask them directly, is he endorsing Trump? I did, and they said NO! You can try this out for yourself if you don't believe me. Don't be shy!

2

Who will endorse Kamala?

homosexual

1 month ago

Let's see if UMA/Polymarket will be consistent https://polymarket.com/event/rfk-jr-endorses-trump/rfk-jr-endorses-trump

1

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

homosexual

1 month ago

This is a win-win for everyone btw. NO holders are objectively correct. YES holders should get their money back because of incorrect context. Join in on the party and get 2,500% returns. Highlights from Election 2024: RFK Jr. says he is suspending, not ending his campaign. His campaign says he ‘has not endorsed Trump’ https://apnews.com/article/trump-harris-vance-walz-election-dnc-93dc79917053d8c97db4bb9cd6b0130d# Polymarket "Who will endorse Kamala?" Bernie resolved to NO despite "trustworthy" media claiming he endorsed her because he stumped for her consistently, but he factually, objectively did not formally endorse. See for yourself: https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-endorse-kamala/bernie-sanders-endorses-kamala-as-dem-nominee

7

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

homosexual

1 month ago

This is a win-win for everyone btw. NO holders are objectively correct. YES holders should get their money back because of incorrect context. Join in on the party instead of risking on 95 cent shares. Highlights from Election 2024: RFK Jr. says he is suspending, not ending his campaign. His campaign says he ‘has not endorsed Trump’ https://apnews.com/article/trump-harris-vance-walz-election-dnc-93dc79917053d8c97db4bb9cd6b0130d# Polymarket "Who will endorse Kamala?" Bernie resolved to NO despite "trustworthy" media claiming he endorsed her because he stumped for her consistently, but he factually, objectively did not formally endorse. See for yourself: https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-endorse-kamala/bernie-sanders-endorses-kamala-as-dem-nominee

1

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

homosexual

1 month ago

Good thing the Associated Press doesn't have an article titled "His campaign says he ‘has not endorsed Trump’"... oh wait. Well, at least he said he will vote for Donald Trump, right? Oh, he's still encouraging people to vote for him. Hm. I guess you'll just have to buy NO

2

n/a

1 month ago

"This market will resolve to "Yes" if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announces that he will vote for Donald Trump or formally endorses Trump for President of the United States by August 31, 2024" Where is the dispute. Just because he is still on non battlestate ballots to send a message? He formally endorsed trump, first in his adress to the nation, then at the rally the day after. You are all arguing on the base of ending his campaign. Where is this stated in the rules? Lol.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

homosexual

1 month ago

and also cite the Bernie endorsement market

4

homosexual

1 month ago

If you're on the UMA Discord server, please copy and paste the sources I linked below. RFK's campaign is exceedingly clear about this. You don't always get such clear answers! “Mr. Kennedy has not endorsed President Trump,”

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

homosexual

1 month ago

Check the Bernie endorsement market Mr. Car

3

Car

1 month ago

are you guys really trying to say a press conference thats called "address to the nation", is not formal?

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

homosexual

1 month ago

If you're on the UMA Discord server, please copy and paste the sources I linked below. RFK's campaign is exceedingly clear about this. You don't always get such clear answers! “Mr. Kennedy has not endorsed President Trump,”

7

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

homosexual

1 month ago

https://jerseyeveningpost.com/morenews/worldnews/2024/08/23/robert-f-kennedy-jr-announces-he-is-suspending-us-presidential-bid/

2

n/a

1 month ago

5 of his family members have acknowledge his endorsement and commented on it as well. If there was no endorsement then someone needs to contact the media, his family, and RFK himself to let them know.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

homosexual

1 month ago

https://www.kron4.com/news/national/will-rfk-jr-drop-out-and-endorse-trump/

2

n/a

1 month ago

5 of his family members have acknowledge his endorsement and commented on it as well. If there was no endorsement then someone needs to contact the media, his family, and RFK himself to let them know.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

homosexual

1 month ago

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/692379-rfk-jr-says-he-is-suspending-not-ending-his-campaign-his-campaign-says-he-has-not-endorsed-trump/

2

n/a

1 month ago

5 of his family members have acknowledge his endorsement and commented on it as well. If there was no endorsement then someone needs to contact the media, his family, and RFK himself to let them know.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

homosexual

1 month ago

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/08/23/politics/rfk-jr-suspends-campaign/index.html

2

n/a

1 month ago

5 of his family members have acknowledge his endorsement and commented on it as well. If there was no endorsement then someone needs to contact the media, his family, and RFK himself to let them know.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

homosexual

1 month ago

looks like they already did. Big difference between mere support (which some people incorrectly label an "endorsement") and an actual formal endorsement. Check the Bernie endorsement market and see what happened.

2

n/a

1 month ago

5 of his family members have acknowledge his endorsement and commented on it as well. If there was no endorsement then someone needs to contact the media, his family, and RFK himself to let them know.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

homosexual

1 month ago

literally just copied it from someone lower down

1

LMNOP

1 month ago

Nice find. Actual reporting. You're the hero we needed.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

homosexual

1 month ago

See how the Bernie endorsement market turned out. The media all reported that he "endorsed" Harris, and yet he never made a formal endorsement, making NO the winner. We are in the same exact situation here, and to break precedent would be insane. There is a notable difference between a formal endorsement and mere support.

7

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

homosexual

1 month ago

“Mr. Kennedy has not endorsed President Trump,” said spokesperson Stefanie Spear. “The filing was made by an attorney and not reviewed by the campaign.” She said the filing would be updated. https://floridapolitics.com/archives/692379-rfk-jr-says-he-is-suspending-not-ending-his-campaign-his-campaign-says-he-has-not-endorsed-trump/

8

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

homosexual

1 month ago

Look at how the Bernie endorsement market turned out in differentiating "backing" and formal endorsement. It's an important difference.

0

n/a

1 month ago

Just to clarify PolyMarket does not care about technicalities with verbiage. If you No sayers were right then China would of won the most gold medals prediction. The IOC recognizes Hong Kong as part of China and list them as so. That prediction clearly worded things by Country and not team. Polymarket did not pay out based on how the rules were written but based off of how the western media publicized things. The media has confirmed and multiple sources have published his endorsement. If that is not true then have them redact that.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

homosexual

1 month ago

Associated Press isn't good enough evidence? Look at how the Bernie endorsement market turned out in differentiating "backing" and formal endorsement. It's an important difference.

0

n/a

1 month ago

There is no evidence. Just a weird ass twitter post that contradicts every single media outlet in the west. You're delusional.

RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?

homosexual

1 month ago

Very similar played out for the market on Bernie endorsing Harris. He never formally endorsed her despite saying he would do "everything in [his] power" to get her elected. That was enough to overturn the odds on that one from 95% to 0% by the deadline

5

How many viewers will Kamala's DNC speech get?

homosexual

1 month ago

Made a model that predicted 27m, not bad

0

Will Trump admit 'Operation Warp Speed' was his fault?

homosexual

1 month ago

Has Trump EVER admitted he was wrong about something? I can't think of a single example

2

How many viewers will Kamala's DNC speech get?

homosexual

1 month ago

It's whatever the rules say, not the title

1

MOA

1 month ago

This is really crappy criteria, there are 2 numbers, one for the convention and one for her speech. The other bet on this mixes the two and this one isn’t clear on which you are referring to.

What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?

homosexual

1 month ago

Truly hope the disputor loses their bond. Learn to take a loss

2

homosexual

1 month ago

Well this is a shitshow, joyful is not a compound word but UMA has been wrong before (and very recently) such as with the Venezuelan election market. Not worth holding at that point unless someone has better info. Now I know to sell at 98-99 cents!

What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?

homosexual

1 month ago

Well this is a shitshow, joyful is not a compound word but UMA has been wrong before (and very recently) such as with the Venezuelan election market. Not worth holding at that point unless someone has better info. Now I know to sell at 98-99 cents!

3

What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?

homosexual

1 month ago

that's too bad, because obviously they did not add "joyful"

1

RaIsTheSunGod

1 month ago

I don't have $750 to do so but can muster up half that I'll send it to a wallet if someone wants to do the other half

What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?

homosexual

1 month ago

Joyful is not a compound word sorry folks

1

What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?

homosexual

1 month ago

Sorry but joyful is a completely different word. "Joy-stricken" is an example of a compound word while "joyful" is a completely different adjective

0

RaIsTheSunGod

1 month ago

adjective full of joy, as a person or one's heart; glad; delighted. I'll also add that Joy was added per my request to specifically add the word Joyful

What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?

homosexual

1 month ago

lol no it isn't. if it was a compound word it would be like eg "joy-stricken" not a completely different word

2

n/a

1 month ago

Did anyone dispute “Joy”? “Joyful” is obviously a compound word and should count

Will Beyoncé perform at the DNC?

homosexual

1 month ago

It's over bud

1

UMAisGarbage

1 month ago

Still 30 mins left on the program slot.

Will Beyoncé perform at the DNC?

homosexual

1 month ago

2,400% gain on this lol. If only I had put more than a dollar on it

3

Will Beyoncé perform at the DNC?

homosexual

1 month ago

How did that go

0

Nancy.Pelosi

1 month ago

lol I sold out at 99c and y'all are letting me buy more?

Will Beyoncé perform at the DNC?

homosexual

1 month ago

so true man

0

n/a

1 month ago

https://www.tmz.com/2024/08/22/beyonce-dnc-final-night-kamala-harris/

Will Beyoncé perform at the DNC?

homosexual

1 month ago

LOL I loved turning 2 cents into $20. Fun was had by all

1

How long will Kamala Harris's DNC speech be?

homosexual

1 month ago

11 minutes right now

0

tomatreides

1 month ago

Where we at on the clock?

Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?

homosexual

1 month ago

Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. withdrew his petition for ballot access in Arizona, a key battleground state, on Thursday night, according to a spokesman for the Secretary of State’s office. Kennedy is expected to hold an event in Phoenix on Friday to address the future of his campaign. In recent days, he has moved closer to dropping out and endorsing Trump. https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2024/08/22/democratic-national-convention-harris-trump-election-updates/

0

What will Gretchen Whitmer say during DNC speech?

homosexual

1 month ago

Democracy

0

Will Beyoncé perform at the DNC?

homosexual

1 month ago

Places Beyoncé was “rumored” to be at in 2024 (but never showed up): - Coachella - Stagecoach - Olympics Performance - DNC - Her own music videos - The Sphere Residency - The Cowboy Carter Tour

4

Will Taylor Swift attend the DNC?

homosexual

1 month ago

omg they're playing Shake It Off!! now is your chance to buy all the YES you can!!

0

Who will speak at the DNC?

homosexual

1 month ago

"Charli XCX is performing after Philip Locker's speech at the Democratic National Convention tonight! Tune in between 8 and 9 pm Central Time" https://x.com/EsnupiCenter/status/1826760245282308301

0

Who will speak at the DNC?

homosexual

1 month ago

But why would it be her jet?

0

merjoobi

1 month ago

https://globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=a0bcf9 charlies jet?

Who will speak at the DNC?

homosexual

1 month ago

Why would that be Charli's jet?

0

merjoobi

1 month ago

https://globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=a0bcf9 charlies jet?

Who will speak at the DNC?

homosexual

1 month ago

No evidence that this is her flight. Nashville to Chicago flights happen every day, and hers was last tracked to Nashville today.

0

Slaylorswift

1 month ago

Private jet from Nashville to the dnc this morning … https://x.com/chadizzy1/status/1826707357046636990?s=46

What will Gretchen Whitmer say during DNC speech?

homosexual

1 month ago

Bitcoin?

0

Mass arrests at DNC?

homosexual

1 month ago

Check March on the DNC, it's a broader protest and the ones here are just the elected Uncommitted delegates to the DNC

0

Slaylorswift

1 month ago

Here’s your “ protest” a sit in all day lol aka meaning no arrest https://x.com/jakesheridan_/status/1826487649399422984?s=46

Speed/Kai beat Minecraft on current (43rd) attempt?

homosexual

1 month ago

how are they STILL doing this lol

1

What will Tim Walz say during DNC speech?

homosexual

1 month ago

I think he said "coached" which doesn't count

1

JPVR

1 month ago

He said coach

What will Pete Buttigieg say during DNC speech?

homosexual

1 month ago

I should have remembered that this guy is the single best person at platitudes in politics. My bad

1

What will Pete Buttigieg say during DNC speech?

homosexual

1 month ago

seriously?

2

What will Pete Buttigieg say during DNC speech?

homosexual

1 month ago

Biggest opportunist on the planet but he made his way up into the Biden admin in the Department of Transportation

0

MasterMindful

1 month ago

Who tf is that

Andrew Tate arrested in August?

homosexual

1 month ago

He was detained, not arrested. There is a major difference, which also matters for your own freedom should you be under such a circumstance!

0

Mountainman

1 month ago

Why hasn't this been settled? Cops showed up at his house, put him in cuffs, and now he is in a jail cell.... If that isn't "arrested" what is?

Mass arrests at DNC?

homosexual

1 month ago

Uncommitted delegates are ready to be arrested as they sit at the doorway of the DNC. They're protesting against the DNC to demand a speaking spot at the Convention. https://x.com/i/spaces/1DXxydzDOYdJM

3

Mass arrests at DNC?

homosexual

1 month ago

@babendums it counts if they were protesting the DNC at the Israeli consulate in Chicago! Which is what the protestors, the media, and law enforcement all said

1

homosexual

1 month ago

Lol Yes holders not knowing how to read "in Chicago, protesting the 2024 Democratic National Convention." Is there a hidden rule somewhere saying "AT the 2024 DNC"? Have not been able to find that yet. Awaiting response

Mass arrests at DNC?

homosexual

1 month ago

Lol Yes holders not knowing how to read "in Chicago, protesting the 2024 Democratic National Convention." Is there a hidden rule somewhere saying "AT the 2024 DNC"? Have not been able to find that yet. Awaiting response

2

Mass arrests at DNC?

homosexual

1 month ago

Please link the government report

0

n/a

1 month ago

Ignore the scammers trying to convince you there are holes in the Rules. According to their "understanding" it would be impossible for this market to ever be a "Yes". The protests happening right now in Chicago are all anti-DNC and Yes betters are obviously not responsible to "prove" what they identity and beliefs are. The resolution states the resolution is from the government and reporting that have BOTH considered these "protests" to be anti-DNC.

Mass arrests at DNC?

homosexual

1 month ago

there are ALWAYS police officers who call protests "riots" to discredit them. It's their role as representatives of the state.

1

Car

1 month ago

Its simple as this: Rules say the arrested protestors need to be protesting the DNC. If they got arrested for looting or something like assaulting an officer during their Pro-Palestina riots, it does not count.

# Trump mentions at DNC day 3?

homosexual

1 month ago

anyone know the current count?

0

# Trump mentions at DNC day 3?

homosexual

1 month ago

knock on wood

0

KingofRingx3

1 month ago

This market ist a mess. Check what is up with the one for yesterday before you bet!

Annual inflation above 2.5% in August?

homosexual

1 month ago

Current CPI YoY estimate is 2.59%. It's going to be close https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting

0

Speed/Kai beat hardcore Minecraft by Friday?

homosexual

1 month ago

I need someone to convince me right now

0

Speed/Kai beat hardcore Minecraft by Friday?

homosexual

1 month ago

can you convince me rn

0

coby

1 month ago

aint happenin

Speed/Kai beat hardcore Minecraft by Friday?

homosexual

1 month ago

then why would you bet yes dawg

0

Car

1 month ago

I have been watching this shit for a few days now and they actually suck so hard hahaha

Speed/Kai beat hardcore Minecraft by Friday?

homosexual

1 month ago

proof?

0

Chidaruma

1 month ago

They are aware of the bet now theyll do it just to be petty

# Trump mentions at DNC day 3?

homosexual

1 month ago

link?

0

KingofRingx3

1 month ago

This market ist a mess. Check what is up with the one for yesterday before you bet!

Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?

homosexual

1 month ago

He hasn't exactly been an expert at utilizing the media

3

n/a

1 month ago

Monday more likely IMO

Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?

homosexual

1 month ago

The running mate of Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who is pursuing an independent bid for president, says the campaign is considering exiting the race and backing former President Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, in the November election. https://www.npr.org/2024/08/21/nx-s1-5084085/nicole-shanahan-rfk-jr-trump

1

Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?

homosexual

1 month ago

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will make a speech in Phoenix on Friday, his campaign announced, as the independent presidential candidate considers whether to drop out of the race and endorse former President Donald Trump. https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/21/politics/rfk-jr-speech-friday/index.html

1

What will Bill Clinton say during DNC speech?

homosexual

1 month ago

or lose it all

0

fate

1 month ago

this shit isn't even entertaining anymore.

What will Bill Clinton say during DNC speech?

homosexual

1 month ago

easy way to get quick money tho

0

fate

1 month ago

this shit isn't even entertaining anymore.

Mass arrests at DNC?

homosexual

1 month ago

I truly hope more people with zero protest experience or knowledge, or who just don't know how to read or listen, keep buying NOs. I need more cheap shares

2

Mass arrests at DNC?

homosexual

1 month ago

Clearly just the personal perspective of that officer who doesn't think pro-Palestine protests are legitimate.

0

Car

1 month ago

"Last night wasn't a protest" according to Chicago Police Department: https://www.facebook.com/ChicagoPoliceDepartment

Mass arrests at DNC?

homosexual

1 month ago

The National Lawyers Guild and the protest groups themselves are exceedingly clear that it is targeted at the DNC, which is supporting Israel. Not that hard to comprehend tbh. Quote from NLG: "This evening, Chicago Police arrested more than 70 people protesting the Democratic National Convention in solidarity with the people of Palestine."

3

BlairMainframe

1 month ago

Will last night's protests count as "protesting the 2024 DNC?? The protest moved some distance to the Consulate General of Israel on Madison Street. And it's unclear that they were "protesting the 2024..." in the rules, but rather protesting Israel's actions towards Gaza/Palestine/Palestinians. We need clarity on if last night's arrests count towards the total, or not (they shouldn't).

Mass arrests at DNC?

homosexual

1 month ago

The National Lawyers Guild is now putting the number at "more than 70" today, meaning a total of at least 83. https://x.com/NLGChicago/status/1826139648772423996

6

Mass arrests at DNC?

homosexual

1 month ago

The National Lawyers Guild is now putting the number at "more than 70" today. https://x.com/NLGChicago/status/1826139648772423996

0

Mass arrests at DNC?

homosexual

1 month ago

If we're being safe with the estimates, 65 today and 12 yesterday. It's more than on track for reaching 100 by Thursday.

0

Will Harris publicly support tax on unrealized gains?

homosexual

1 month ago

Why is this categorized under DNC?

0

Florida Presidential Election Winner

homosexual

1 month ago

I don't get Dem yes. You see the polling averages here, with zero polls favorable for Dems, and you still think Harris is going to win Florida? It isn't 2008 anymore. Even the Democratic Party itself has given up on Florida because they don't see it as competitive. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/florida/

2

Ohio Presidential Election Winner

homosexual

1 month ago

In what world is +7 Trump competitive for Harris? Let's see the average now: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/ohio/. Oops, it's all +8 to +10 Trump!

0

Andy-Beshear

1 month ago

Getting very competitive in Ohio! (conservative pollster): https://x.com/iapolls2022/status/1825299316300554294

What will Tim Walz say during DNC speech?

homosexual

1 month ago

Why would he not say debate?

0

Live audience at Walz/Vance debate?

homosexual

1 month ago

Why would they not have one? I want to hear the NO perspective

0

Who will win San Francisco Mayor Election?

homosexual

1 month ago

A statistical tie with no clear winner after ranked choice: https://growsf.org/pulse/growsf-pulse-july-2024-mayor/. A lot of the polls are not that helpful since they only look at the first rank. That's how you get upsets like the Alaska at-large US House district

0

Biden skips Kamala's DNC speech?

homosexual

1 month ago

can you put more money on it please, i want more shares

0

n/a

1 month ago

He will stay to show support

What will Tim Walz say during DNC speech?

homosexual

1 month ago

request on discord

0

Joe111

1 month ago

Could you add the words hope, damn, Donald Trump and football

What will Tim Walz say during DNC speech?

homosexual

1 month ago

yeah but does he still say it frequently or did they put him under control

0

TheOneB

1 month ago

he basically started the "weird" thing

US GDP declines in Q3 2024?

homosexual

1 month ago

you should report this in the Discord

0

Hedged

2 months ago

The date is wrong, 29 August is still in Q3, they will be releasing the 2nd estimate of Q2 not the first estimate for Q3!

US GDP declines in Q3 2024?

homosexual

1 month ago

yeah you're right my bad

0

Hedged

2 months ago

The date is wrong, 29 August is still in Q3, they will be releasing the 2nd estimate of Q2 not the first estimate for Q3!

# of Trump mentions at DNC day 2?

homosexual

1 month ago

Can you please explain further? What is the "rolling call" and was it spoken on the main stage at the United Center?

0

TheBoyBilly

1 month ago

The main dispute is being whether the live mentions during the rolling call count or not

What will Obama say during DNC speech?

homosexual

1 month ago

Honestly surprised I got none wrong. Even the ones I placed orders for that didn't go through

2

# of Trump mentions at DNC day 2?

homosexual

1 month ago

"main stage of the United Center on the second night of the DNC"

0

TheBoyBilly

1 month ago

I didn't say main stage, it says stage, each state has it's own stage, and it is audible on the stream

# of Trump mentions at DNC day 2?

homosexual

1 month ago

Is there actually any question that it was 47 or is Billy just bad at winning?

1

Mass arrests at DNC?

homosexual

1 month ago

And I'll be funding it :)

0

AlwaysHungry

1 month ago

These "protesters" know this is their big chance to get their voice heard. My understand is that there are multiple groups from various cities in Chicago and they are very coordinated. They don't care if they get arrested because they most likely have a fund to bail people out.

Mass arrests at DNC?

homosexual

1 month ago

https://x.com/i/broadcasts/1MYxNMvylVPJw

0

Mass arrests at DNC?

homosexual

1 month ago

13 yesterday, more happening now as we speak: https://x.com/SpyderMonkey0_0/status/1826062725371593109

0

Mass arrests at DNC?

homosexual

1 month ago

Since when has Chicago police gone easy on protestors?

0

IWillReturn

1 month ago

Sold my position because Chicago police is clearly going on easy on the protesters, many of whom broke the fence on video and weren’t arrested. They need to portray their “no bail” program as a success, so I wouldn’t be surprised if no official number of arrests is even released by the police

Mass arrests at DNC?

homosexual

1 month ago

all of this is public record as well. easy to find and especially once media reports on it

0

skenez

1 month ago

source? has to be 'credible' - aka police dept etc

Will Biden get a name wrong during DNC speech?

homosexual

1 month ago

lol the first one is a completely different spelling while the latter adds one character and is how many people say his name

1

n/a

1 month ago

Sunak - Sanook & Walz - Waltz sound pretty similarly incorrect to me ... google tim walz pronounce

Kim Dotcom extradited in 2024?

homosexual

1 month ago

idk why people are buying YES when the outcome communicated by the government, the media, and Dotcom himself is that it will take a while for the extradition to take place. But I am happy about the price dips

0

What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?

homosexual

1 month ago

pls fill my unburdened no orders

1

US inflation >0.1% from July to August 2024?

homosexual

1 month ago

Live month to month inflation estimate as of 8/19 is 0.24%. Using normalCDF calculation based on the past accuracy of the Nowcast, I'd give it a 75% chance of being more than 0.1%. https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting

3

Biden skips Kamala's DNC speech?

homosexual

1 month ago

He is not shy of indirect criticism lol. Already doing it to Pelosi and Obama: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/biden-obama-dnc-speech-b2598095.html

0

Miau

1 month ago

The absence of Biden could be seen by some as an indirect criticism of the relevance or appeal of Harris's speech, I hope they are taking this into account. Good luck to everyone.

Will Biden get a name wrong during DNC speech?

homosexual

1 month ago

can you please fill my NO orders

1

UMAisGarbage

1 month ago

Here's the other Waltz that the YouTube also correctly interprets the misspelling of: https://ibb.co/p2RSGFv

Will Biden get a name wrong during DNC speech?

homosexual

1 month ago

You kidding? If he called himself Barack then I would agree but this is a nickname lol

0

Flipp

1 month ago

At 17:27 he also mistakes his own name and calls himself "Joey"

Will Biden get a name wrong during DNC speech?

homosexual

1 month ago

If you disagree then please fill my orders

1

homosexual

1 month ago

"Waltz" and "Joey" are not getting a name wrong lol. It would make sense if he said "Putin" instead of "Zelensky" or something. Y'all are grasping at straws here.

Will Biden get a name wrong during DNC speech?

homosexual

1 month ago

"Waltz" and "Joey" are not getting a name wrong lol. It would make sense if he said "Putin" instead of "Zelensky" or something. Y'all are grasping at straws here.

1

What will Obama say during DNC speech?

homosexual

1 month ago

you sort of have to have a huge ego to be a successful politician. That's how this rotten system operates

0

PoliNostra

1 month ago

Obama can't help himself. He'll say Harris is going to expand the ACA, because he loves taking credit for anything. Great politician, huge ego.

What will Tim Walz say during DNC speech?

homosexual

1 month ago

Does Walz say "weird" a lot?

0

What will Biden say during DNC speech?

homosexual

1 month ago

folks can someone nudge sleepy joe to mention the apartheid regime?

0

What will Biden say during DNC speech?

homosexual

1 month ago

how did this guy mention Ancient Greece before the Zionist entity?

4

What will Biden say during DNC speech?

homosexual

1 month ago

when is this zionist gonna say israel

2

Mass arrests at DNC?

homosexual

1 month ago

100 is a low number for many anti-Zionist protests

0

Anesti

1 month ago

100 arrests? No way

Mass arrests at DNC?

homosexual

1 month ago

that's like half how many people are regularly arrested at similar protests with half as many people than this one

0

Car

1 month ago

100 doesnt sound like a lot for a multi day long event with multiple groups protesting

Mass arrests at DNC?

homosexual

1 month ago

not that I have much at stake but I'll probably donate 2x what I make from this to a bail fund for the arrested or something

1

Slaylorswift

1 month ago

Can’t stop it. Might as well profit than donate the money to good causes. But I agree with you

Mass arrests at DNC?

homosexual

1 month ago

Waiting for people to fill my orders, but it gives me no pleasure to acknowledge that the Dems are cops and will mass arrest people. It happens at most large protest that means anything, of any kind

0

Who will speak at the DNC?

homosexual

1 month ago

Still think "a speech" could be debatable here. At the least something that would be disputed

1

ItCantBeTrollBoy

1 month ago

You can't be serious. The rules don't say "speech", they say "a speech". We all know what a speech is, right?

Kim Dotcom extradited in 2024?

homosexual

1 month ago

buying NO at like 55 cents was probably one of the better bets I've made on this website

0

Who will speak at the DNC?

homosexual

1 month ago

are there any other free money opportunities on this website that aren't like 95+ cents

0

SusanWarren,HR

1 month ago

Bernie Sanders is free money. DNC website: "Official daytime party business, meetings, and briefings will be held at McCormick Place, North America’s largest convention center." Washington Post: "The daytime programing [...] will take place at the McCormick Place convention center [...] Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), Edward J. Markey (D-Mass.) are scheduled to address different groups at the convention center"

CA-41 election: Rollins (D) vs. Calvert (R)

homosexual

1 month ago

The Hill does not have reliable models

0

0x40943c3dd52E984

1 month ago

The July 18th model run of The Hill's California-41 election district forecast (which froze since biden dropped out) shows 80% odds for Calvert. Since California will go blue (electorial college), there isn't that large of an incentive to change votes for the congressional district. Bullish for Calvert until more data comes out.

What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?

homosexual

1 month ago

If she wants to pander to terrorists wouldn't she just do what she has been to support Israel?

2

Science

1 month ago

Ceasefire is a lock. She has to pander to her terrorist base in Dearborn

Who will speak at the DNC?

homosexual

1 month ago

@Worldfox21 yeah lol that's why her spot was announced today. Waiting for more dumb people to lower the price before I buy more

0

n/a

1 month ago

Michelle famously hates politics and has been a hermit for years avoiding political conflict.

Who will speak at the DNC?

homosexual

1 month ago

lol how did this meme start

1

🤺JustKen

1 month ago

Will Michelle attempt to wrest the nomination away from Kamala if she gives a speech?

Who will speak at the DNC?

homosexual

1 month ago

delusional people

0

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

why is cuban still 20%?

Who will speak at the DNC?

homosexual

1 month ago

I told everyone. Nobody listened!

0

n/a

1 month ago

Michelle confirmed

Walz and Vance debate on Sept 18?

homosexual

1 month ago

very insightful, Boe Jiden

0

Boe-Jiden

1 month ago

Bro can't read right at thinks it's the 18th lmao. It's gonna happen on the 17th. Yalls bout to get rekd

Iran Nuke in 2024?

homosexual

1 month ago

oh hey, I've seen this story before

2

Who will speak at the DNC?

homosexual

1 month ago

she literally grew up in Chicago

0

n/a

1 month ago

Michelle famously hates politics and has been a hermit for years avoiding political conflict.

U.S. Recession in 2024?

homosexual

1 month ago

The key here is that this definition is for two consecutive quarters. within 2024. Q3 seems solid, despite the Sahm rule indicating that there should be a recession around now. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMREALTIME

1

Trump conviction declared a mistrial?

homosexual

1 month ago

this is way too long of a wait

0

What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?

homosexual

1 month ago

I'm not sure about ceasefire. It hasn't been a major talking point for mainstream Democrats generally. She was part of the butcher of Gaza's administration this whole time.

0

StevenBonnell

1 month ago

it's pretty obvious man... this is a DNC address and she will hit all the major talking points. ceasefire and abortion are a lock.

NFL Saturday

homosexual

1 month ago

lol why did Raiders drop from 70 to 36.5 cents for 10 minutes

0

CA-41 election: Rollins (D) vs. Calvert (R)

homosexual

1 month ago

$7 million vs $5.7 million raised. That's a lot. https://www.fec.gov/data/elections/house/CA/41/2024/

0

0x40943c3dd52E984

1 month ago

I don't believe your funding analysis is correct. Ken Calvert's PAC (Eureka) raised 5mi with 3mil cash on hand (money can carry over from previous races), on top of the 3.6mil reported by his compaign. I don't think it is a substantial advantage.

CA-41 election: Rollins (D) vs. Calvert (R)

homosexual

1 month ago

What model are you using?

0

0x40943c3dd52E984

1 month ago

The July 18th model run of The Hill's California-41 election district forecast (which froze since biden dropped out) shows 80% odds for Calvert. Since California will go blue (electorial college), there isn't that large of an incentive to change votes for the congressional district. Bullish for Calvert until more data comes out.

Will Kamala Harris win all 6 swing states?

homosexual

1 month ago

I think you're mad you paid double for the same thing

3

0xea04FcC960ACc382dd1E67f9790e55C7294aB8C2-1721595795089

1 month ago

this isnt a team sport lol

10+ monkeypox cases in US by October 31?

homosexual

1 month ago

Because so many Americans are vaccinated against it, it is unlikely to spread in the US.

2

What will Trump say during Saturday rally?

homosexual

1 month ago

well that's not true because Trump still says MAGA a lot

0

IWillReturn

1 month ago

Whenever Kamala does something communist he doubles down on the MAGA

10+ monkeypox cases in US by October 31?

homosexual

1 month ago

Clade II is already fairly prominent in the US. Thousands already this year, prior to Clade I firing up in the DRC

1

caesar

1 month ago

Clade 1 only??

Kim Dotcom extradited in 2024?

homosexual

1 month ago

I would imagine NO

1

Fatboyslim

1 month ago

Which way does this resolve if he has a heart attack tomorrow?

Kim Dotcom extradited in 2024?

homosexual

1 month ago

The thing is, nothing actually changed. Anyone who paid any attention would have known right when this market opened, and even years before, that this was going to happen.

0

Natemo

1 month ago

funny how things change so quick , i wonder if it will flip again on a dime... man im glad im not in this pick.

CA-41 election: Rollins (D) vs. Calvert (R)

homosexual

1 month ago

Rollins is very slightly leading in polls and has a substantial fundraising advantage.

0

How many times will Trump tweet this week?

homosexual

1 month ago

you pulled through on the Bernie endorsement, convince me to buy yes 16-20

0

n/a

1 month ago

I've never wanted Trump to tweet before, but just two more times please Mr Donald Trump 🙏

How many times will Trump tweet this week?

homosexual

1 month ago

Pretty sure betting isn't regulated like formal investments in a lot of places

0

cockbrain

1 month ago

i wonder what the insider trading implications are

Annual inflation under 3% in August?

homosexual

1 month ago

Current estimate by the Federal Reserve of Cleveland is 2.60% year-on-year inflation. Only needs slight changes for it to reach 3%, especially as core inflation (i.e. "long-run" inflation which excludes volatile products) is projected 3.21%. https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting

4

What will Kamala Harris say during Friday speech?

homosexual

1 month ago

you literally have zero positions right now

0

Scrounge

1 month ago

You still thinking she’s gonna win the election? 😂 i’ve got ocean from property in Arizona, I’d like to sell you.

Kim Dotcom extradited in 2024?

homosexual

1 month ago

Good luck to yes betters: "Although significant, the signing of the extradition warrant is just another step in a process that is likely to take years longer. Dotcom has always signalled seeking a judicial review of the extradition warrant, and to appeal any adverse outcome. If extradition goes ahead, it could be years from now." https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/justice-minister-signs-kim-dotcoms-extradition-order/ZIO7RHMUS5B3NCKUEW4QH5C4V4/

0

What will Trump say during Thursday press conference?

homosexual

1 month ago

prob someone who didn't like the context of how he said it

0

ItCantBeTrollBoy

1 month ago

Who's the bozo who incorrectly disputed "Fired"? Congrats on literally burning $750 X 2. And pissing off all of the Yes shareholders who now have to wait to collect their winnings.

What will Trump say during Thursday press conference?

homosexual

1 month ago

omg dawg tampon again, I should have learned and held

4

What will Kamala Harris say during Friday speech?

homosexual

1 month ago

Have you ever heard Harris publicly say "couch"? What about Biden?

0

Tories4Harris

1 month ago

lmao. $2,500 bet already on couch. "campaign statements about her policies suggest the Democratic nominee will focus on lowering grocery prices, addressing housing costs and more" it's not impossible that she'd say something about making couches more affordable. But holy shit this market is crazy.

Trump gets more black voters in 2024?

homosexual

1 month ago

What polls are you looking at that suggest a higher share of Black voters supporting Trump than in 2020 and 2016? Genuine question since I couldn't find exact info either way (prob just didn't try hard enough tbf, since most polls have demographic breakdowns they're just not usually published in news articles). I would be surprised if, even with a Black nominee, the share increases for Trump. Another article I came across even suggested that third parties are taking some of the Dem share. Eager to hear more

0

Sardinianshepherd

2 months ago

THIS A STRONG YES

Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by Sep 30?

homosexual

1 month ago

The previous numbers were for Clade II not Clade I. Are you aware of any cases of Clade I being the US already? Additionally, why would Clade I be transmitted when 99%+ of the US is vaccinated against mpox?

0

T.w

1 month ago

Seeing history CDC does not count officially the number of case but monkey pox is already in the us. After people returns from summer Holliday this will pick up.

Who will speak at the DNC?

homosexual

1 month ago

would be nice if bernie nos would fill my orders

0

SusanWarren,HR

1 month ago

Bernie Sanders is free money. DNC website: "Official daytime party business, meetings, and briefings will be held at McCormick Place, North America’s largest convention center." Washington Post: "The daytime programing [...] will take place at the McCormick Place convention center [...] Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), Edward J. Markey (D-Mass.) are scheduled to address different groups at the convention center"

What will Trump say during Thursday press conference?

homosexual

1 month ago

Why did they add this then: Compound words will count as long as "Fire" or "Fired" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the act of dismissing an employee.

0

MaliaObama

1 month ago

Rules: "Yes" if Trump says "Fire" or "Fired". Any usage of the word regardless of context will count...so Trump could mention that a bullet was "fired" at him. Trump can mention that the man who was killed during his assassination attempt was a fire fighter. Trump can answer a question concerning the recent reporting that he wants to fire his campaign leadership. Trump can mention a cease-fire in Gaza. He could get asked about the recent headlines about him wanting to fire striking workers. He could talk about the fires that burned in Minneapolis while Tampon Tim Walz was governor. He could mention a missile fired at our military bases by Hezbollah that caused American casualties. He might mention the fires in the Western US. Trump can say his literal catch phrase "you're fired".

Trump fires campaign manager in August?

homosexual

1 month ago

DailyMail...

0

5to5000

1 month ago

https://x.com/disclosetv/status/1823759305415245953 NEW - Trump reportedly in talks to fire campaign managers Chris LaCivita and Susie Wiles — DailyMail

Trump fires campaign manager in August?

homosexual

1 month ago

source: DailyMail

0

LyinCamela

1 month ago

https://www.disclose.tv/id/7rvwlao7e7/

Will the US confirm SSN hack in August?

homosexual

1 month ago

You can confirm yourself the number of people affected by it. I agree with the above that it's more a question of whether a federal agency will say anything about it

0

T.w

1 month ago

Read the troyhunt report on the data and no won't look like a hack that concern every single American (opt-out users are not concerned of this leaked for instance)

What will Trump say during Thursday press conference?

homosexual

1 month ago

tampon. It's all the rage in conservative media. Now it's once again fresh in his mind from the Elon interview

0

What will Trump say during Thursday press conference?

homosexual

1 month ago

Read the rules. It's specifically referring to the act of getting rid of an employee.

0

MaliaObama

1 month ago

Fire should be at like 50 cents. Trump could mention that a bullet was "fired" at him. Trump can mention that the man who was killed during his assassination attempt was a fire fighter. Trump can answer a questions concerning the recent reporting that he wants to fire campaign staff. Trump can mention a cease-fire in Gaza. Trump can say his literal catch phrase "you're fired". He could get asked about the recent headlines about him wanting to fire striking workers. There's 50 ways "fire/fired" could pay out lol.

Florida Presidential Election Winner

homosexual

1 month ago

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/florida/

1

n/a

1 month ago

Wow, latest poll showing Trump only +3 with RV, +2 with LV from a reputable pollster and with the lowest MoE, and this market just blanks, literally does not move a percent. Is this one of those Diamond hands markets? Nb yesterdays +5 Trump also a reputable pollster with low house effect, the other one, not so much...I would be long Dems winning Florida, but I'm already doing it via margin of victory in electoral college

Florida Presidential Election Winner

homosexual

1 month ago

You're acting like there has been at least one poll since March 2023 that showed Trump losing against Biden or Harris

0

n/a

1 month ago

Wow, latest poll showing Trump only +3 with RV, +2 with LV from a reputable pollster and with the lowest MoE, and this market just blanks, literally does not move a percent. Is this one of those Diamond hands markets? Nb yesterdays +5 Trump also a reputable pollster with low house effect, the other one, not so much...I would be long Dems winning Florida, but I'm already doing it via margin of victory in electoral college

Florida Presidential Election Winner

homosexual

1 month ago

If there's any evidence of a reverse coattail effect maybe that would make sense but afaik there isn't

1

n/a

1 month ago

Still undervalued tbh, Desantis is hated by anyone with a brain for fighting against woke BS instead of anything meaningful for the housing crisis, weed + abortion will bring out more independent & dem voters

Virginia Presidential Election Winner

homosexual

1 month ago

Put money on it

1

AHN

1 month ago

Can election law amendments be passed by executive order of the governor without going through the courts? For example, banning illegal immigrants and non-citizens from voting, using only paper ballots, restricting mail-in voting (excluding absentee voting), etc. Are these things confirmed to pass? I wonder.

Who will speak at the DNC?

homosexual

1 month ago

"Former first lady Michelle Obama, who remains extremely popular, is also likely to speak about a candidate who would be the first female president. It is inconceivable that Michelle Obama would deliver a speech that did not take into account her humble upbringing just a few miles away in a tiny apartment on the South Side." https://chicago.suntimes.com/columnists/2024/07/30/democratic-national-convention-chicago-barack-obama-michelle-obama-bill-clinton-hillary-clinton

0

NY-04 election: Gillen (D) vs. D'Esposito (R)

homosexual

1 month ago

At the moment, not worth betting on unless you have insider information imo. The only polls out that I'm aware of have 38-45 in May 2024, and 46-39 in July 2024. Both have margins of error that put them statistically tied. Both raised about the same money so far. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_New_York#District_4

1

MN-5 Democratic Primary Winner

homosexual

1 month ago

citation: the election results, which you would have predicted if you had read the polling that showed a massive advantage for her

0

IWillReturn

1 month ago

“Everyone…. Likes Omar” citation needed

WI-3 Democratic Primary Winner

homosexual

1 month ago

The election has been called for Cooke. Not who I personally wanted to win but it was inevitable with the resources and polling advantage she had. https://edition.cnn.com/election/2024/primaries-and-caucuses/results/wisconsin

0

Who will speak at the DNC?

homosexual

1 month ago

She's a popular figure in the Democratic Party. She polls better than pretty much any other Democrat.

1

Anesti

1 month ago

Why would Michelle Obama speak here? She has a relation to Biden not Kamala.

MN-5 Democratic Primary Winner

homosexual

1 month ago

raising $100,000 is pocket change for this race. They started way too late, and even Samuels' polling shows they are at best statistically tied ASSUMING voters are familiar with the platforms of both candidates, which is not how any elections in the US work -- everyone knows who Omar is and they like her, not everyone knows who Samuels is, and even if they did it doesn't put him over the top as his own consultant communicated. The same consultant said that, given voters' current knowledge and preferences, Samuels is losing by 22 points. Twitter likes are meaningless, this is a real-world election. Outside fundraising doesn't really matter as an indicator of support when we have direct metrics of support showing her being the favorite. The fact she has more money, regardless of source, is going to really help her on top of that.

0

IWillReturn

1 month ago

Finally, an article released yesterday by the Intercept shows that Zionists/pro-Israeli groups did in fact try to support Samuels in this race. It is an interesting article overall, with my overall take being that lots of people are galvanized to take on Omar and have decided to make last-minute donations, with renewed interest once Cori Bush lost her primary: https://theintercept.com/2024/08/11/ilhan-omar-don-samuels-primary-super-pac-israel/

WI-8 Republican Primary Winner

homosexual

1 month ago

Wied probably has the best shot since he's endorsed by Trump. Roth maybe has a chance due to other endorsements, but it'll be an uphill battle for him.

0

WI-3 Democratic Primary Winner

homosexual

1 month ago

Cooke has released internal polling suggesting she may be leading the race, though the poll included a large number of undecided voters. She also leads Shankland heavily in fundraising, with federal campaign finance reports showing Cooke has received more than $2 million in contributions while Shankland has raised about $860,000. https://wisconsinexaminer.com/2024/08/10/democratic-primary-in-3rd-congressional-district-gets-heated/

0

homosexual

1 month ago

"A recent survey of 335 primary election voters in Wisconsin’s Third Congressional District shows a clear and commanding lead for Rebecca Cooke ahead of the August 13th Democratic Primary. Cooke begins the race with a 13-point lead over Katrina Shankland – well outside the margin of error. Cooke starts with 38 percent of the vote, followed by Katrina Shankland with 25. Eric Wilson garners 4 percent. There are 33 percent undecided. Following balanced biographies, Cooke’s lead grows to 19 points, with Cooke at 53 percent, Shankland at 34 percent, and 12 percent undecided. Following positive messaging, Cooke’s lead balloons to 36 points, with Cooke at 62 percent, Shankland at 26 percent, Eric Wilson at 2 percent, and 12 percent undecided. " https://www.wispolitics.com/2024/cooke-campaign-new-poll-double-digit-lead-in-august-13th-democratic-primary/

WI-3 Democratic Primary Winner

homosexual

1 month ago

A recent survey of likely Democratic primary voters in Wisconsin’s 3rd District finds that Rebecca Cooke is almost certain to be the Democratic candidate in the general election. 1 https://drive.google.com/file/d/1RjsffiANm66G8bQg4LXpkxQuZjrB5aFF/view

0

homosexual

1 month ago

"A recent survey of 335 primary election voters in Wisconsin’s Third Congressional District shows a clear and commanding lead for Rebecca Cooke ahead of the August 13th Democratic Primary. Cooke begins the race with a 13-point lead over Katrina Shankland – well outside the margin of error. Cooke starts with 38 percent of the vote, followed by Katrina Shankland with 25. Eric Wilson garners 4 percent. There are 33 percent undecided. Following balanced biographies, Cooke’s lead grows to 19 points, with Cooke at 53 percent, Shankland at 34 percent, and 12 percent undecided. Following positive messaging, Cooke’s lead balloons to 36 points, with Cooke at 62 percent, Shankland at 26 percent, Eric Wilson at 2 percent, and 12 percent undecided. " https://www.wispolitics.com/2024/cooke-campaign-new-poll-double-digit-lead-in-august-13th-democratic-primary/

WI-3 Democratic Primary Winner

homosexual

1 month ago

"A recent survey of 335 primary election voters in Wisconsin’s Third Congressional District shows a clear and commanding lead for Rebecca Cooke ahead of the August 13th Democratic Primary. Cooke begins the race with a 13-point lead over Katrina Shankland – well outside the margin of error. Cooke starts with 38 percent of the vote, followed by Katrina Shankland with 25. Eric Wilson garners 4 percent. There are 33 percent undecided. Following balanced biographies, Cooke’s lead grows to 19 points, with Cooke at 53 percent, Shankland at 34 percent, and 12 percent undecided. Following positive messaging, Cooke’s lead balloons to 36 points, with Cooke at 62 percent, Shankland at 26 percent, Eric Wilson at 2 percent, and 12 percent undecided. " https://www.wispolitics.com/2024/cooke-campaign-new-poll-double-digit-lead-in-august-13th-democratic-primary/

0

What will Trump say during Elon interview?

homosexual

1 month ago

well done, tampon bros

1

What will Trump say during Elon interview?

homosexual

1 month ago

OH MY GOD HAHAHA

0

MN-5 Democratic Primary Winner

homosexual

1 month ago

The 38-41 figure is assuming Samuel had full funding for widespread advertising and messaging outreach. So this is if everybody knows about his platform from his perspective.

1

IWillReturn

1 month ago

That's not Samuel's own polling, which is from Victoria research and shows them virtually tied at 38-41. It refers to polling conducted by Omar through Lake Research Partners

What will Trump say during Elon interview?

homosexual

1 month ago

He's going to talk about Tesla, believe me

0

What will Trump say during Elon interview?

homosexual

1 month ago

He isn't going to say Tesla man, it's probably a risk for campaign regulations

0

n/a

1 month ago

It’s called T E S L A

What will Trump say during Elon interview?

homosexual

1 month ago

Elon is the ultimate corporate bailout king why is he even talking about this

4

What will Trump say during Elon interview?

homosexual

1 month ago

Dawg I'm from Argentina and our inflation is as bad as ever and poverty is through the roof LMAO

2

What will Trump say during Elon interview?

homosexual

1 month ago

"I won't say the name of the company" also funny how he was trying to court union votes while shittalking striking workers

2

What will Trump say during Elon interview?

homosexual

1 month ago

LOL Elon talking about needing to cut public spending as he relies on it for his income

0

What will Trump say during Elon interview?

homosexual

1 month ago

He didn't say civil war, he mentioned World War III and nuclear war

0

shrutebuck

1 month ago

what about a civil war?

South Carolina Presidential Election Winner

homosexual

1 month ago

buy more pls

0

cockbrain

2 months ago

i think dems have a chance this election for SC

Maine Presidential Election Winner

homosexual

1 month ago

yw

1

HugoJr

2 months ago

thanks mr homo

Florida Presidential Election Winner

homosexual

1 month ago

That doesn't help your case really

2

futureknower

2 months ago

Nate Silver gives Kamala a 23% chance of winning Florida at time of writing.

US GDP declines in Q3 2024?

homosexual

1 month ago

This market is for advance estimates. Q1 adjusted and Q2 advance estimates are in the current release. The next release will have Q2 adjusted and Q3 advance.

0

Hedged

2 months ago

The date is wrong, 29 August is still in Q3, they will be releasing the 2nd estimate of Q2 not the first estimate for Q3!

MN-5 Democratic Primary Winner

homosexual

2 months ago

I think 96% is too high of a likelihood given the millions AIPAC has spent this year to further entrench Zionism in the US political system. But even the Times of Israel says that a challenge is not realistic: https://www.timesofisrael.com/why-pro-israel-groups-arent-going-after-ilhan-omar-after-helping-oust-others-in-squad/. The polling that Samuels' campaign has done at best shows him losing by 3 points, with it being as bad as losing by 22 points. If AIPAC doesn't care, and he is way behind on fundraising, there is no path to victory for him. Election is in just a few days.

1

Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?

homosexual

2 months ago

6 minutes left on this

0

Kamala Harris replaced as nominee at DNC?

homosexual

2 months ago

Why would it happen after?

4

Jerry51

2 months ago

It’s gonna happen either at the convention or shortly after

MN-5 Democratic Primary Winner

homosexual

2 months ago

Do you know of any recent polling?

0

Bidensupporter123

2 months ago

No way the progressive wing will let Omar fail now that Busch was ousted in MO. Expect Bernie and the rest to canp out in the state until the primary

MN-5 Democratic Primary Winner

homosexual

2 months ago

I wish there were more! It's just tough to beat $1 million of AIPAC money in a district like Bush's or Bowman's.

0

IWillReturn

2 months ago

People are sick and tired of activist politicians

US inflation >0.1% from June to July 2024?

homosexual

2 months ago

idk lol .04 is less than .1 so I'm not confident enough to bet on it

0

infinitiphantom

2 months ago

So you think this is a YES then?

MI-12 Democratic Primary Winner

homosexual

2 months ago

shoutout to Rashida, she's gonna be the one consistent fighter for justice left in Congress

1

Will Florida legalize weed?

homosexual

2 months ago

I don't think it's that simple due to a lot of the people leaving the state being lower-income or younger people who can't afford it or who are tired of Florida. But the polls seem to give it a good shot

0

ncfom

2 months ago

57% in 2020. Add in 4 years worth of GenZ as well as new young residents from outside FL and a yes is likely. This market needs more liq

Who will endorse Kamala?

homosexual

2 months ago

Thanks for being the revolutionary vanguard who showed us the truth!

1

n/a

2 months ago

Congratulations, everyone! 🥳🥳🥳 What a wild ride

U.S. Recession in 2024?

homosexual

2 months ago

LOL crypto is irrelevant to the broader economy, it's mostly owned by people who want fast money and overreact to everything. The same 30-day stock downturn happened like a year ago but we saw no recession because the stock market is likewise an essentially irrelevant indicator of future economic health just as much. Another example of this is 2015. Maybe it would serve you to be more of a nerd idk

0

2 months ago

Typical nerd, some many signs (stock, crypto, job) still can't give you a clue, gotta wait for the "official" data. You have zero change to survive when avalanche comes

Who will endorse Kamala?

homosexual

2 months ago

It was two people who bought a bunch because they saw the Progressives for Harris livestream. I wouldn't panic about it.

1

n/a

2 months ago

@Laura - Ok, makes sense. Just starting to panic as the price dips and DNC doesn't announce anything.

Who will endorse Kamala?

homosexual

2 months ago

No, it was just today that he confirmed once again that he is waiting for a progressive platform from Harris before he endorses

1

n/a

2 months ago

Do you think this counts as a formal endorsement: https://x.com/BernieSanders/status/1820614296784499017?

Who will endorse Kamala?

homosexual

2 months ago

Why is this relevant?

0

n/a

2 months ago

Bernie speaking at Progressives for Harris as of 3 hours ago. https://x.com/pramilajayapal/status/1820556152565846449?s=46&t=a7SDUCDiCOr1-JylVACfKg

Who will endorse Kamala?

homosexual

2 months ago

Bernie yet again confirming that he isn't endorsing Kamala lol https://x.com/BernieSanders/status/1820592762615370019

0

Democrats flip a 2020 Trump state?

homosexual

2 months ago

lol none of these states are flipping blue. If anything some of the Biden 2020 states are flipping red.

0

Venezuela Presidential Election Winner

homosexual

2 months ago

Here's the thing I'm confused about: Why would the CNE declare González the winner after providing their information that suggests Maduro got more votes? I'm not interested in arguments about the election being rigged or whatever, I think most people already suspect that.

0

Will Biden finish his term?

homosexual

2 months ago

It's important to note as well that Biden gets healthcare unlike almost anyone else in the country. Remember what they did to make sure Trump was safe when he got covid? They dumped a whole cocktail into his body before there was a vaccine available to the public. They don't play games about this

1

2 months ago

It's sad to see so many conspiracy theorists losing their shirts. Ps. Look up the one-year life expectancy of an 80-year-old. There is a 6.5% chance of death, and we are more than halfway through the year. The chances of him leaving are, at best, 5%

Who will endorse Kamala?

homosexual

2 months ago

you still have time to sell your yes shares like I did

0

mag

2 months ago

Alright Laura, I'll admit. I was unfamiliar with your game

Who will endorse Kamala?

homosexual

2 months ago

Do you know when the results are publicly announced?

0

n/a

2 months ago

⚠️⚠️⚠️ ** Voting is closed! ** ⚠️⚠️⚠️

Who will endorse Kamala?

homosexual

2 months ago

LOL just when I thought about selling because I was unsure, he publishes an entire article about why he isn't endorsing Kamala right now lol. GG folks

5

U.S. Recession in 2024?

homosexual

2 months ago

FRED's metrics on the history of negative bond yield spreads (specifically 10 year and 2 year) suggest a recession within 2.8 years of April 2022, when we first saw a negative spread since the 2020 recession. We're currently at 2.4 years. We could reasonably expect a recession by January by that measure. Recent deflation and higher unemployment probably support a coming recession. I don't buy the arguments others have made about the stock market, which I don't think has much predictive power. I don't know yet about the BEA's metrics, so I'll have to look into it and come back with a better analysis.

1

Who will endorse Kamala?

homosexual

2 months ago

What was the tweet?

0

n/a

2 months ago

I hope that fake tweet was legit. A FORMAL endorsement at 8 PM right AFTER the nomination would be perfect.

Will Biden speak at the DNC?

homosexual

2 months ago

"Will Biden Be At The Democratic National Convention? Yes, he’s the keynote speaker on opening night." https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2024/08/01/harris-likely-to-officially-clinch-democratic-nomination-by-monday-heres-how/

0

Who will endorse Kamala?

homosexual

2 months ago

"The party will announce the results when voting concludes Monday at 6 p.m. EDT, though Harris is all-but-certain to clinch the nomination as 99% of delegates had pledged to support her after Biden dropped out, before virtual voting began." https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2024/08/01/harris-likely-to-officially-clinch-democratic-nomination-by-monday-heres-how/

0

Who will endorse Kamala?

homosexual

2 months ago

I think there's a big difference here between someone who believes in the same corrupt economic and political system as Kamala (e.g., an average Republican just as much as an average Democrat; even moreso for a "moderate" Republican like this one), and someone like Bernie Sanders who ultimately believes in a different system with democratic ownership of the economy and rejects mainstream politics. He's not perfect even from this perspective, albeit, and he did endorse previous Democratic candidates, but you just can't compare someone who is either a labor Zionist, a democratic socialist, or a social democrat depending on who you ask, to someone who is a capitalist to his bones just as much as Kamala. The goals are fundamentally different rather than just a simple disagreement over whether to accept this or that basic regulation.

1

n/a

2 months ago

well for example, republicans endorsing biden would be an obvious start. https://edition.cnn.com/2024/06/26/politics/video/adam-kinzinger-endorses-president-joe-biden-cnntm-digvid

Who will endorse Kamala?

homosexual

2 months ago

do you doubt it?

1

aenews2

2 months ago

Big if true!

Venezuela Presidential Election Winner

homosexual

2 months ago

entonces debés invertir más

2

MetalGreymonBTC

2 months ago

Edmundo Gonzales fué quien ganó

Who will endorse Kamala?

homosexual

2 months ago

What's the most recent communication? Planning to repurchase shares after another market closes

1

n/a

2 months ago

I've been watching an unhealthy amount of recent Bernie interviews the past few days, making sure I didn't miss any nuance, and I noticed that Bernie said in his interview with Anderson Cooper on CNN the same thing he said in his tweet and Portland rally that many people have been taking for an endorsement: https://youtu.be/RVtX9ri5V7I?si=IfOwKPb-28bRpYQa&t=158 On responding to Cooper's question of what it would take for Bernie to endorse her, Bernie says, amongst other things: "When we talk about the future of the planet and climate change, **we have to make sure that we elect the Vice President.**" In his tweet he says "We must... ...elect VP @KamalaHarris". In ALL his interviews, he's asked about his lack of endorsement, and he explains his reasoning every time. Nothing has changed.

Venezuela Presidential Election Winner

homosexual

2 months ago

por eso hay que invertir más si se quiere más ganancia

0

ELGRANCASTILLO

2 months ago

Lo Que No Me Gusto De Esta Plataforma o Casa De Apuesta Es Que Inverti 41$ Para Ganarme 51$ Me Parece Un Riesgo Apostar Tanto Dinero Por Muy Poca Ganancia.

Venezuela Presidential Election Winner

homosexual

2 months ago

Whether it's "tainted" is irrelevant in this market LOL, where is it in the rules that it needs to be a perfect election?

1

n/a

2 months ago

mf even used a NY times article that says "tainted election", are you for real brother, try harder lol

Venezuela Presidential Election Winner

homosexual

2 months ago

"Venezuela election, as it happened: Maduro declared winner, González claims victory" https://apnews.com/live/venezuela-election-updates-maduro-machado-gonzalez

0

n/a

2 months ago

mf your "credible reporting" is CNE, and their site is down, all you have is a power point presentation showing Maduro won, give me a break

Venezuela Presidential Election Winner

homosexual

2 months ago

"Venezuela election results updates: Maduro declared winner in disputed vote" https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2024/7/29/venezuela-election-results-live-maduro-gonzalez-presidential-race

0

n/a

2 months ago

mf your "credible reporting" is CNE, and their site is down, all you have is a power point presentation showing Maduro won, give me a break

Venezuela Presidential Election Winner

homosexual

2 months ago

"Maduro Is Declared Winner in Tainted Venezuela Election" https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/28/world/americas/venezuela-election-results.html

0

n/a

2 months ago

mf your "credible reporting" is CNE, and their site is down, all you have is a power point presentation showing Maduro won, give me a break

Venezuela Presidential Election Winner

homosexual

2 months ago

"Venezuela's Maduro declared winner in disputed vote" https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cz5rj2mzgevo

0

n/a

2 months ago

mf your "credible reporting" is CNE, and their site is down, all you have is a power point presentation showing Maduro won, give me a break

Venezuela Presidential Election Winner

homosexual

2 months ago

Good thing a consensus of credible reporting has agreed that Maduro won the possibly flawed election.

0

n/a

2 months ago

"however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice." that's how this is relevant, good luck with UMA voting

Venezuela Presidential Election Winner

homosexual

2 months ago

And how is this relevant to this market? You should have read the rules.

0

n/a

2 months ago

Results showed by "CNE" had many flaws so they even turned down their official site (http://www.cne.gob.ve/) and have been like this since election day, they are probably fabricating the results, BUT in the meantime you can check the real results here https://resultadosconvzla.com/ (with receipts of each electoral site digitalized so far, around 81,21% out the total), you can do and say whatever you want to save your bags but this site is proof enough of the real numbers with signed receipts and votes state by state. You can compare this market to USA 2020 elections, but the reality is that trump back in the day didn't have the receipts showing his claims.

Venezuela Presidential Election Winner

homosexual

2 months ago

A lot of independent sources at this point have not found irregularities in the voting process itself. There might still be fraud of some sort, of course, until we can verify otherwise. Regardless, this actually has no bearing on how this market should and will resolve. Venezuela declared Maduro the winner, and that's what this market is about.

0

Rockeeet

2 months ago

Based on international laws and the transparency that should characterize any electoral process, it is essential for platforms like Polymarket to consider concrete and verifiable evidence when determining the outcome of elections. Although the National Electoral Council (CNE) has declared Nicolás Maduro the winner of the recent presidential elections, there are serious allegations and proofs of fraud that cannot be ignored. I have the results from my polling station, which show a significant discrepancy with the official results: Edmundo González received 477 votes, while Maduro received only 21. Although I cannot base my conclusions solely on the results from my polling station, this significant difference reflects a trend that should be considered on a national level. Other candidates, such as Ecarri and Bertucci, received no votes at my polling station, further reinforcing the notable preference for González. Moreover, in other polling stations where the results have been verified, the results are very similar, showing a consistent and overwhelming preference for González. It is imperative that Polymarket evaluates and considers this evidence and acknowledges Edmundo González as the legitimate winner, as reflected by the data obtained from the voters.

US inflation >0.1% from June to July 2024?

homosexual

2 months ago

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland predicts 0.24%, but usually there is a ~0.2 pp margin of error (so maybe 0.04% to 0.44% are reasonable guesses) https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting

0

Elon Musk # of tweets July 26 - Aug 2?

homosexual

2 months ago

already adds up to 121 tweets

0

n/a

2 months ago

He was def tweaking. Now hes crashing down, just like last week lol

Venezuela Presidential Election Winner

homosexual

2 months ago

good thing the official information from Venezuela is already out

1

Guacanarys

2 months ago

"The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Venezuela, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice."

Venezuela Presidential Election Winner

homosexual

2 months ago

It's joever for the maduro no holders -- the National Lawyers Guild's delegation found no irregularities, and the NEC is not overturning the results.

0

Venezuela Presidential Election Winner

homosexual

2 months ago

vaya, ¿quién podría haber esperado que un régimen autoritario de derechas apoyaría al candidato de derechas?

0

factman

2 months ago

PERU RECOGNIZES GONZALEZ AS PRESIDENT https://x.com/EFEnoticias/status/1818364410446090316

Venezuela Presidential Election Winner

homosexual

2 months ago

compa el mercado se resolverá en 23 horas, ntp. lo único que tenés q hacer es animar a los que compraron acciones de maduro no o edmundo yes a comprar más acciones para donarnos más

0

ELGRANCASTILLO

2 months ago

Tengo 50,74 Acciones a 82,0 Centavos De Dolar Cuanto Me Gane Por Favor Quien Me Ayuda.

Venezuela Presidential Election Winner

homosexual

2 months ago

you should buy more no's

0

n/a

2 months ago

other than the fact you’re a fucking retard believing anything is official from results totaling 110%

Who will endorse Kamala?

homosexual

2 months ago

At this point, he still has more of a spine than like 99% of Washington (low bar albeit). I thought he was going to endorse before nomination, but I've come to realize Kamala is likely getting nominated on Aug 1, and Aug 7 at the latest. I don't see him giving a formal endorsement right now if he's very clearly clarifying that he needs concessions before an actual endorsement, with the word "endorse." Kamala doesn't care at all about the issues Bernie ran on in 2016 and 2020, so if she makes any concessions, it will take at least a couple weeks. Bernie's endorsement also only matters for the general election, not the primary like this one is based on.

3

Who will endorse Kamala?

homosexual

2 months ago

I believed this yesterday, but the question is whether it is a formal endorsement. His message right now is that he needs Kamala to give concessions before the nomination which is Aug 1-7. I don't see that happening anymore if he wants to urge for social-democratic issues.

0

muusd

2 months ago

U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., said Friday that Democrats need to focus on the concerns of the working class in order to earn voters’ support in November. Stumping in New Hampshire that day, he said he wanted Vice President Kamala Harris to commit to certain progressive agenda items before he’d endorse her presidential campaign — though he went on to endorse the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee the following day.

Who will endorse Kamala?

homosexual

2 months ago

you know what Laura, I doubted you, but I think you're right. Should have read the rules when I bought it LMAO

1

n/a

2 months ago

https://x.com/BernieSanders/status/1818398596540084370 Bernie is standing up against corporate interests, which is why he hasn't endorsed Kamala Harris. The Democrat party is filled with ELITES taking BIG MONEY from BIG CORPORATIONS

Venezuela Presidential Election Winner

homosexual

2 months ago

Good thing the CNE is controlled by the PSUV. I don't see anything in the rules about OAS being a source lol

1

n/a

2 months ago

your stupid $91 is irrelevant. Maduro hasn't won anything. the CNE explicitly says challenges can be brought forth within 15 days of announcement. the OAS will make the ultimate ruling wednesday. til then stfu

Venezuela Presidential Election Winner

homosexual

2 months ago

This is about the election specifically. Other events are irrelevant. The Venezuelan government already declared Maduro the winner.

8

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Liked by MrBest...3..., Donkov and 6 others

haluk

2 months ago

What happens if venezuelan government declares maduro winner, but hes overthrown?

Venezuela Presidential Election Winner

homosexual

2 months ago

There can be infinite evidence of González getting the majority of the votes, and ultimately it does not matter because the primary source is the Venezuelan government, who determines the winner. Maduro will be exercising his executive authority and some people here will still insist he lost!

6

Who will endorse Kamala?

homosexual

2 months ago

https://x.com/BernieSanders/status/1817243928548319732

1

0x274EB71Ea51c64F79DA567bde0224018A77E0c57-1721979326417

2 months ago

ABC News, Maine Public, and The Washington Examiner have all reported Sanders as formally endorsing Harris

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