deathsdynamicshroud
#13639
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Brazlian Grand Prix Winner
deathsdynamicshroud
7 months ago
what a crazy win
0
Kapii
7 months ago
Wow, that was a surprise...
Trump wins every swing state?
deathsdynamicshroud
7 months ago
girl math
1
REEEEEEEEEE
7 months ago
FYI for those trying to wrap their heads around why the odds are so high for Trump, consider that betting markets have a history of correctly picking the favorite to win in Presidential races, averaging around 80%-90% accuracy. That means no matter what Trump's odds are in each state, if he's up even slightly in the betting market for that state, his actual odds to win are much higher. This is particularly true of Trump, who beat the betting markets in 2016 and over-preformed his polls substantially both times he ran. Assuming Trump's actual odds to win each state are 80%, with a 90% correlation between the blue wall states, that would put him at a 37.1% chance of winning the parlay. Doing the calculations at a 90% chance to win each state, it is 59.8%