#914
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46
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25
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1
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mcpetrus
2 weeks ago
Some polls show 6-7 % other only 3%.
mcpetrus
1 month ago
At bet365 you can already bet on who will be the new US president in 2028.
JanJansen1
1 month ago
Why bet on a election that is 2 months away
mcpetrus
1 month ago
In the polls the party is consistently at 13 to 14% but today there was a poll where its candidate Robert Habeck was rated as "good" with 27%. This puts him just behind Friedrich Merz. It could still be exciting. I already wrote about it in the SPD market: It may be that one of the two parties gains 20%+ and the other falls far behind because the electorate of the two parties is similar. In the past it has always been the SPD that has benefited from this, but perhaps this is the first time they have the worse candidate?
mcpetrus
1 month ago
But they are the only ones who have not lost the electorate in the government, while the SPD is 10 percent and the FDP is 8 percent lower than in 2021.
MelatoninButBetter
1 month ago
The green party is in shambles. If you are not german or otherwise knowledgable on german politics, I'd stay out of this one.
mcpetrus
1 month ago
Polls show them between 30 and 37%. A big difference. But it is the first election campaign for their boss Friederich Merz. It is his great advantage and disadvantage at the same time that he has never been in a government. A lot is therefore possible. Personally I expect between 27 and 33% for them.
mcpetrus
1 month ago
The topic of migration is in second place among the most important topics, far behind the economy. But at 20-25%, this figure for migration is not very high. In 2017 this was well over 50%. And when it comes to the economy, even its own supporters have little confidence in the party. That's a big difference from Trump.
Dolphing
1 month ago
Current polls have them at 17-19%. I doubt that will increase as a large portion of that are single-issue voters on migration (on which all the other parties have already moved right) or Ukraine (ceiling of that was seen in eastern state elections). Those voters can be lured by other parties. Trump inauguration could do all kinds of things. Some portion of fanatics will stay no matter what (as seen from other commenters here). Slim chance they lose 4-5% because of procedural errors in NRW.
mcpetrus
1 month ago
Maybe they think it's about getting into the Bundestag and not getting into the government.
Bratanapfel
1 month ago
How the hell is FDP at 12% ??
mcpetrus
1 month ago
CDU/CSU 100%, SPD 90%, Greens 10%, other 0%
mcpetrus
1 month ago
to what extent is 25-30 possible? there has never been a poll that saw them higher than 23.
SecteurBO
1 month ago
Probably only 3 options that are possible, 15-20, 20-25 and 25-30. I believe it's gonna be just over 20(21-22)
mcpetrus
1 month ago
Very difficult. They are often underestimated in surveys, but sometimes overestimated, especially in online surveys. In the European elections in June, YouGov had it at 20%, the other institutes at 14-16%. In the end it was 15.9%. I think it also depends on how the election campaign of CDU leader Merz, who could probably be the only one who could still attract a few AfD voters, will go. In my opinion, anything between 13 and 23% seems possible, but the most likely figure is 16-18%.
mcpetrus
1 month ago
I think they will either be in the single digits or around 20%. This has to do with the SPD and the similar voter base of both parties.
mcpetrus
1 month ago
They mostly benefit from people who vote for the Greens in polls but who find the Greens too scary shortly before the election. In this election there is also the CDU candidate who is the most polarizing and pro-economy candidate in decades. This could also help the SPD with voters who are 65 years old or older. Which is 40% of all eligible voters.
Dolphing
1 month ago
They typically trend up from early polls towards the election from big social policy promises, so most likely 15-20%. German reaction to Trump 2 is still a wild card.
mcpetrus
2 months ago
Yes, it's always good when right-wing extremists make the realists rich with their false hopes. keep it up.
tehflame
2 months ago
i dont know any of them but ChatGPT told me that Nawrocki is the most right wing - so i pick him
mcpetrus
3 months ago
50.02 Atlas. Will drop under 50.00 today's evening
mcpetrus
3 months ago
Missing ballots ~4,107,000 ----- Calculated votes in total: 154,671,870 ----- turnout 62 - 64 %.
mcpetrus
3 months ago
1.83
mcpetrus
3 months ago
Estimation of missing votes: CA: 2732k - H 1694k Trump 956k o: 82k OR: 230k - H 156k Trump 67k o: 7k NJ: 206k - H 112k Trump 90k o: 4k WA: 184k - H 120k Trump 58.5k o: 5.5k MD: 165k - H 130k Trump 31k o: 4k NY: 156k - H 102k Trump 54k UT: 136k - H 62.5k Trump 71k o: 3.5k AZ: 98k - H 54k Trump 43k o: 1k CO: 94k - H 62k Trump 29.5k o: 2.5k AK: 48k - H 21.8k Trump 25k o: 2k DC: 22k - H 20.3k Trump 1.5k o: 0.2k NV: 14k - H 7.7k Trump 6k o: 0.3k MS: 12k - H 4.4k Trump 7.5k o: 0.1k NE: 10k - H 4.6k Trump 5.3k o: 0.1k
mcpetrus
3 months ago
Missing ballots ~4,107,000 ----- Calculated final result: GOP +1.31 ----- Detail: GOP 76,937,724 ((( 49.74 % ))) ----- DEM 74,901,640 ((( 48.43 % ))) ----- Other 2,832,506 ((( 1.83 % ))) ----- 154,671,870 votes in total - turnout 62 - 64 %.
mcpetrus
3 months ago
Missing ballots ~4,107,000 ----- Calculated final result: GOP +1.31 ----- Detail: GOP 76,937,724 ((( 49.74 % ))) ----- DEM 74,901,640 ((( 48.43 % ))) ----- Other 2,832,506 ((( 1.83 % ))) ----- 154,671,870 votes in total - turnout 62 - 64 %.
mcpetrus
3 months ago
49.74 at my today's calculation (+0.03 to Yesterday)
mcpetrus
3 months ago
Trump 49.71 at my calculation
mcpetrus
3 months ago
Estimation of missing votes: CA: 3014k - H 1888k Trump 1034.5k o: 90.5k MD: 328k - H 242k Trump 78k o: 8k OR: 250k - H 160k Trump 82.5k o: 7.5k WA: 250k - H 171k Trump 71.5k o: 7.5k NJ: 206k - H 120k Trump 83k o: 3k UT: 173k - H 70k Trump 98.5k o: 4.5k NY: 156k - H 102k Trump 54k AZ: 130k - H 66.5k Trump 62k o: 1.5k CO: 94k - H 63.5k Trump 28k o: 2.5k IL: 54k - H 39k Trump 14.3k o: 0.7k AK: 48k - H 21k Trump 25.8k o: 2k NV: 28k - H 15k Trump 12.5k o: 0.5k DC: 22k - H 18.8k Trump 3k o: 0.2k CT: 20k - H 8.8k Trump 11.0k o: 0.2k MS: 12k - H 4.4k Trump 7.5k o: 0.1k NE: 10k - H 4.6k Trump 5.3k o: 0.1k
mcpetrus
3 months ago
Missing ballots ~4,795,000 ----- Calculated final result: GOP +1.24 ----- Detail: GOP 76,782,905 ((( 49.71 % ))) ----- DEM 74,810,862 ((( 48.47 % ))) ----- Other 2,759,006 ((( 1.82 % ))) ----- 154,352,773 votes in total - turnout 62 - 64 %.
mcpetrus
3 months ago
Missing ballots ~4,795,000 ----- Calculated final result: GOP +1.24 ----- Detail: GOP 76,782,905 ((( 49.71 % ))) ----- DEM 74,810,862 ((( 48.47 % ))) ----- Other 2,759,006 ((( 1.82 % ))) ----- 154,352,773 votes in total - turnout 62 - 64 %.
mcpetrus
3 months ago
Missing ballots ~4,795,000 ----- Calculated votes in total: 154,352,773 ----- turnout 62 - 64 %.
mcpetrus
3 months ago
I don't see how Trump can get over 50%. it is currently 50.27 and today he has lost 0.01 to 0.02 after each update... but there are still millions of votes missing from California. 90% of the time it will reach between 49.75 and 49.95. I think the chance of 50.00 or more is less than 5%. In my opinion no is easy money
mcpetrus
3 months ago
Estimation of missing votes: CA: 3353k - H 2078k Trump 1178k o: 97k MD: 350k - H 256k Trump 86k o: 8k OR: 250k - H 160k Trump 82.5k o: 7.5k WA: 250k - H 171k Trump 71.5k o: 7.5k AZ: 220k - H 112k Trump 105.8k o: 2.2k NJ: 206k - H 120k Trump 83k o: 3k UT: 173k - H 70k Trump 98.5k o: 4.5k NY: 156k - H 102k Trump 54k CO: 156k - H 100.2k Trump 53k o: 2.8k AK: 56k - H 24.2k Trump 29.6k o: 2.2k IL: 54k - H 39k Trump 14.3k o: 0.7k NV: 43k - H 22.6k Trump 19.6k o: 0.8k CT: 20k - H 8.8k Trump 11.0k o: 0.2k DC: 18k - H 16.3k Trump 1.5k o: 0.2k MS: 12k - H 4.4k Trump 7.5k o: 0.1k NE: 9k - H 4.6k Trump 4.3k o: 0.1k ME: 8k - H 4.2k Trump 3.6k o: 0.2k NH: 8k - H 4.5k Trump 3.4k o: 0.1k
mcpetrus
3 months ago
Missing ballots ~5,342,000 ----- Calculated final result: GOP +1.40 ----- Detail: GOP 76,739,789 ((( 49.81 % ))) ----- DEM 74,536,570 ((( 48.41 % ))) ----- Other 2,692,719 ((( 1.78 % ))) ----- 153,969,078 votes in total turnout: 61.5 to 63.5 % %.
mcpetrus
3 months ago
Missing ballots ~5,342,000 ----- Calculated final result: GOP +1.40 ----- Detail: GOP 76,739,789 ((( 49.81 % ))) ----- DEM 74,536,570 ((( 48.41 % ))) ----- Other 2,692,719 ((( 1.78 % ))) ----- 153,969,078 votes in total turnout: 61.5 to 63.5 % %.
mcpetrus
3 months ago
https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G24/President-Details.phtml
Emm8002022
3 months ago
94% of the votes had been counted and its still 2.62%, you guys really think it will dip beneath the 2% in the remaining 6% of the count https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/results/president
mcpetrus
3 months ago
whole list of missing vote calculations: CA: 3353k - H 2078k Trump 1178k o: 97k MD: 350k - H 256k Trump 86k o: 8k OR: 250k - H 160k Trump 82.5k o: 7.5k WA: 250k - H 171k Trump 71.5k o: 7.5k AZ: 220k - H 112k Trump 105.8k o: 2.2k NJ: 206k - H 120k Trump 83k o: 3k UT: 173k - H 70k Trump 98.5k o: 4.5k NY: 156k - H 102k Trump 54k CO: 156k - H 100.2k Trump 53k o: 2.8k AK: 56k - H 24.2k Trump 29.6k o: 2.2k IL: 54k - H 39k Trump 14.3k o: 0.7k NV: 43k - H 22.6k Trump 19.6k o: 0.8k CT: 20k - H 8.8k Trump 11.0k o: 0.2k DC: 18k - H 16.3k Trump 1.5k o: 0.2k MS: 12k - H 4.4k Trump 7.5k o: 0.1k NE: 9k - H 4.6k Trump 4.3k o: 0.1k ME: 8k - H 4.2k Trump 3.6k o: 0.2k NH: 8k - H 4.5k Trump 3.4k o: 0.1k
mcpetrus
3 months ago
Missing ballots ~5,342,000 ----- Calculated final result: GOP +1.40 ----- Detail: GOP 76,739,789 ((( 49.81 % ))) ----- DEM 74,536,570 ((( 48.41 % ))) ----- Other 2,692,719 ((( 1.78 % )))
mcpetrus
3 months ago
Missing ballots ~5,342,000 ----- Calculated final result: GOP +1.40 ----- Detail: GOP 76,739,789 ((( 49.81 % ))) ----- DEM 74,536,570 ((( 48.41 % ))) ----- Other 2,692,719 ((( 1.78 % )))
mcpetrus
3 months ago
Missing ballots ~5,342,000 ----- Calculated votes in total: 153,969,078 ----- turnout: 61.5 to 63.5 %. Full data: Estimation of missing votes: CA: 3353k - H 2078k Trump 1178k o: 97k MD: 350k - H 256k Trump 86k o: 8k OR: 250k - H 160k Trump 82.5k o: 7.5k WA: 250k - H 171k Trump 71.5k o: 7.5k AZ: 220k - H 112k Trump 105.8k o: 2.2k NJ: 206k - H 120k Trump 83k o: 3k UT: 173k - H 70k Trump 98.5k o: 4.5k NY: 156k - H 102k Trump 54k CO: 156k - H 100.2k Trump 53k o: 2.8k AK: 56k - H 24.2k Trump 29.6k o: 2.2k IL: 54k - H 39k Trump 14.3k o: 0.7k NV: 43k - H 22.6k Trump 19.6k o: 0.8k CT: 20k - H 8.8k Trump 11.0k o: 0.2k DC: 18k - H 16.3k Trump 1.5k o: 0.2k MS: 12k - H 4.4k Trump 7.5k o: 0.1k NE: 9k - H 4.6k Trump 4.3k o: 0.1k ME: 8k - H 4.2k Trump 3.6k o: 0.2k NH: 8k - H 4.5k Trump 3.4k o: 0.1k
mcpetrus
3 months ago
Missing ballots ~5,342,000 ----- Calculated votes in total: 153,969,078 ----- turnout: 61.5 to 63.5 %. The value is subject to a range of uncertainties. A value of more than 156 million votes is definitely out of the question.
mcpetrus
3 months ago
My today's calculation with approximately 6,192,000 ballots still missing: 154,133,000 votes at the end, turnout 62.72%
mcpetrus
3 months ago
Today's calculation with approximately 6,192,000 ballots still missing: ---GOP +1.43 --- Trump 76,966,000 (((49.93%))) --- Harris 74,750,000 (((48.50%))) --- Other 2,414,000 (((1.57 %))) --- Turnout: 62.72%
mcpetrus
3 months ago
In Torrington, 98% of the votes are still missing due to technical problems. It's only about ~15k correct but when you calculate you should include everything. In any case, I'm not the one who "has to check my data".
joewarida.
3 months ago
My math says gop 2.3%
mcpetrus
3 months ago
never. Los Angeles alone will push it to 2.3 or lower. And there are still hundreds of thousands of votes in 75-25 blue counties, Seattle, Portland... according to my calculations Trump is only in Utah, Connecticut and alaska slightly ahead of Harris when it comes to the missing votes.
joewarida.
3 months ago
My math says gop 2.3%
mcpetrus
3 months ago
My Prediction rn Gop +1.52
mcpetrus
3 months ago
Estimation of missing votes: CA: 4,270k votes - Harris 2.520k to Trump 1.750k AZ: 535k votes - Harris 280k to Trump 255k MD: 400k votes - Harris 300k to Trump 100k WA: 345k votes - Harris 225k to Trump 120k OR: 300k votes - Harris 210k to Trump 90k NJ: 250k votes - Harris 160k to Trump 90k UT: 250k votes - Harris 115k to Trump 135k CO: 180k votes - Harris 115k to Trump 65k NY: 130k votes - Harris 90k to Trump 40k PA: 130k votes - Harris 75k to Trump 55k 8 other States with missing votes combined: 275k votes - Harris 168k to Trump 107k
mcpetrus
3 months ago
Estimation of missing votes: CA: 4,270k votes - Harris 2.520k to Trump 1.750k AZ: 535k votes - Harris 280k to Trump 255k MD: 400k votes - Harris 300k to Trump 100k WA: 345k votes - Harris 225k to Trump 120k OR: 300k votes - Harris 210k to Trump 90k NJ: 250k votes - Harris 160k to Trump 90k UT: 250k votes - Harris 115k to Trump 135k CO: 180k votes - Harris 115k to Trump 65k NY: 130k votes - Harris 90k to Trump 40k PA: 130k votes - Harris 75k to Trump 55k 8 other States with missing votes combined: 275k votes - Harris 168k to Trump 107k
mcpetrus
3 months ago
I use the data from AP and look at how many votes are still missing and in which counties. To do this, I check whether there is information about whether the missing votes are postal votes, for example. It's partly speculation but I always assumed the most likely case. I think GOP +1.3 to 1.7 is very likely but there is a remaining chance for both GOP 0-1 and GOP 2-3.
mcpetrus
3 months ago
Missing votes: ~7,065,000 ----- Calculated final result: Trump 76,931,562 (((50.02%))) --- Harris 74,593,302 (((48,50))) --- other 2,772,875 (((1.48)))
mcpetrus
3 months ago
Missing votes: ~7,065,000 ----- Calculated final result: Trump 76,931,562 (((50.02%))) --- Harris 74,593,302 (((48,50))) --- other 2,772,875 (((1.48)))
mcpetrus
3 months ago
Guess Gop will come out at +1.2 to 1.5. Gop 0-1% is unlikely but still within the realm of possibility. California is still missing 42% of the votes, especially from the big cities. Except Utah and Alaska, the other states from which 10 or more percent of the votes are still missing are also blue.
mcpetrus
3 months ago
He has to end it on day 1 otherwise he would have broken his first election promise. Probably a world record.