#70
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Government coalition formed within 100 days of German election?
mcpetrus
2 months ago
They want to form a government more quickly than originally planned. They are both of the opinion that things have to go faster because of developments with Ukraine/Trump.
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Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?
mcpetrus
2 months ago
Still 21% deluded. He promised it for day 1 lol.
3
AfD % of vote in German Election? [2% Brackets]
mcpetrus
2 months ago
Polls thurinkgia 30-31, result: 32, saxony polls 30-32, result 30. So what the hell you talking about?
1
maju
2 months ago
I think it is underpriced that the AfD will come out at 26+% and beats all polls (as it happened in Thueringen and Sachsen, and Italy, Sweden, France, Netherlands, Argentina, USA).
Government coalition formed within 100 days of German election?
mcpetrus
2 months ago
Now that the left has risen so much, I'm not so sure anymore
1
Trolloftheswamp
2 months ago
It will just be the grand colitation all over again so no sweat
Government coalition formed within 100 days of German election?
mcpetrus
2 months ago
you are definitely wrong. it will be very messy and take a long time.
2
Trolloftheswamp
2 months ago
It will be formed in like couple of days
FDP wins 5% or more of vote in German election?
mcpetrus
2 months ago
4.5 in final YouGov Poll https://yougov.de/politics/articles/51650-das-finale-mrp-wahlmodell-von-yougov-sieht-die-linke-im-bundestag-bsw-und-fdp-verpassen-den-einzug-in-72-wahlkreisen-ist-das-rennen-offen
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BSW wins 5% or more of vote in German election?
mcpetrus
2 months ago
4.6 in final YouGov Poll https://yougov.de/politics/articles/51650-das-finale-mrp-wahlmodell-von-yougov-sieht-die-linke-im-bundestag-bsw-und-fdp-verpassen-den-einzug-in-72-wahlkreisen-ist-das-rennen-offen
0
CDU/CSU margin of victory?
mcpetrus
2 months ago
+10.2 in final YouGov Poll https://yougov.de/politics/articles/51650-das-finale-mrp-wahlmodell-von-yougov-sieht-die-linke-im-bundestag-bsw-und-fdp-verpassen-den-einzug-in-72-wahlkreisen-ist-das-rennen-offen
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Will The Left wins 5% or more of vote in German election?
mcpetrus
2 months ago
7.5 in final YouGov Poll https://yougov.de/politics/articles/51650-das-finale-mrp-wahlmodell-von-yougov-sieht-die-linke-im-bundestag-bsw-und-fdp-verpassen-den-einzug-in-72-wahlkreisen-ist-das-rennen-offen
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AfD % of vote in German Election? [2% Brackets]
mcpetrus
2 months ago
Postal voting is very high. Higher than expected. Not good for the AfD. they will end up under 20%. I'm quite sure of that.
3
Will The Left wins 5% or more of vote in German election?
mcpetrus
2 months ago
I predict they will reach 8-9%
2
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mcpetrus
2 months ago
15-20 is severely undervalued. I'm 90% sure they'll end up at 17-19.
3
Germany Parliamentary Election Winner
mcpetrus
2 months ago
The last Insa poll sees the AfD fall again to 21, the CDU stable at 30. There will be a final poll by the research group today. About 35-40% have already voted by mail.
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Germany Parliamentary Election Winner
mcpetrus
3 months ago
Nichts. Du wirst etwas Geld machen.
1
bfip
3 months ago
was gibts neues
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mcpetrus
3 months ago
Sick
2
ChilliPalmer
3 months ago
Come on islamist, don't stop now with the bombing, knifing, vehicleing in the name of allah! We need afd to rage in the polls...
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mcpetrus
3 months ago
I honestly can't say much about this institute "pollytix". I only know that it belongs to the former boss of infratest dimap, which certainly makes it reputable. There are also two new polls from western German states where the AfD has 18%. These are the strongholds where the party was already strongest in the West in the European elections with 15%, and then in Germany as a whole it was 16%. The 18% from the polls fits very well with 19-20 for the whole of Germany. As I said, it will be a close race whether they finish over or under 20. In my opinion, the trend continues to be for under 20.
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Will The Left wins 5% or more of vote in German election?
mcpetrus
3 months ago
Yougov now also 6%
0
CDU/CSU % of vote in German Election?
mcpetrus
3 months ago
Either the “experts” thought the CDU would gain a lot after the events or lose a lot, but nothing happened. I still think they will reach 32.
2
Next Chancellor of Germany?
mcpetrus
3 months ago
I still think that only Merz has the chance but until June 30th it will be complicated.
1
Which coalition will form the next German government?
mcpetrus
3 months ago
CDU/Greens will never Happen.
2
Which coalition will form the next German government?
mcpetrus
3 months ago
Yes, that will most likely be enough. It seems to me impossible that the FDP + BSW + Left will all get into the Bundestag. Only then could things get tight.
1
HolyMoses7
3 months ago
CDU SPD won't have majority
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mcpetrus
3 months ago
YouGov sees a further drop to 21 today. It should be a tight race between 15-20 and 20-25 but I still think it will be 17-19.
3
Germany Parliamentary Election Winner
mcpetrus
3 months ago
Today's Yougov 29-21. Still very clear and the gap is even increasing, although YouGov has so far been the narrowest of all polls. Many votes have already been cast.
1
Germany Parliamentary Election Winner
mcpetrus
3 months ago
Some people seriously compare the situation to Trump and the fact that people made money betting on him. Yes, guys, but the chances of that happening were at least 50-50... the polls were very close. Several swing states were a tossup or 1% difference but in Germany the "closest" poll is a difference of 8%. Lol! I'm starting to get the impression that some people don't understand the political system in Germany at all.
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Germany Parliamentary Election Winner
mcpetrus
3 months ago
With the small difference that the chances for Trump were 50-50 from the start, while here they were 1-99.
1
n/a
3 months ago
This is awesome platform. You can take money from the Trump/musk sheeple and laugh at them at the same time 😀
Germany Parliamentary Election Winner
mcpetrus
3 months ago
The election is already in full swing. In Munich, 400,000 ballot papers requested by letter have already been sent. In the European elections there were only 370,000 in total and there are still two weeks left. So the voter turnout will probably be very high...
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Germany Parliamentary Election Winner
mcpetrus
3 months ago
I don't care how good or bad it would be. I only know that it will be less than 22%.
1
Daavid2101
3 months ago
Weidel did EXCEPTIONALLY well in the ZDF interview this evening!
Germany Parliamentary Election Winner
mcpetrus
3 months ago
Interesting that Insa now also sees the left in front of the BSW. 3 weeks after everyone else does it. I don't trust this institute, they adapt to the others.
1
Germany Parliamentary Election Winner
mcpetrus
3 months ago
Yeah she will rise to 50% after this 😉
1
Daavid2101
3 months ago
Weidel did EXCEPTIONALLY well in the ZDF interview this evening!
Germany Parliamentary Election Winner
mcpetrus
3 months ago
Scholz just came across as more likeable, but that's not a brilliant performance against Merz. But TV rounds won't change the outcome of the election anyway.
1
Next Chancellor of Germany?
mcpetrus
3 months ago
Ist dass das Konzept der Rechten? 🤦
3
n/a
3 months ago
Seid schlau, waehlt blau
Germany Parliamentary Election Winner
mcpetrus
3 months ago
Nobody said the polls would come in the same way, but the difference between 1st and 2nd place is so big (and has been for months) that there is no doubt about the outcome of the election. Incidentally, there have already been numerous elections in eastern federal states where the AfD came first and this was also predicted in the polls. Maybe you should do some research before creating theories.
2
Daavid2101
3 months ago
While everyone is telling you that german election polls were historically accurate - keep in mind, that the last time a "ultra right" opposition won was back in 1933. Polls may not be accurate when the actual favourite is the "bad guy". Mainstream / state-media tries to suppress AfD, you can see this in every. frckin. tv-show.
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mcpetrus
3 months ago
Well INSA had the AfD four times in a row at 22 and now at 21. Other polls had them at 19 or 20 and now at 21. That's what I've been saying for a long time. The polls even out at 20-21. But it has been noticeable for a long time that the AfD simply does not go above 22 because its maximum is reached at that point. Market participants are apparently slowly starting to understand this...
4
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mcpetrus
3 months ago
This is exactly the point that some people here don't understand. The party would need at least 37-38% in all eastern federal states in order to reach 25% nationwide, as far fewer people live in the east. The fact that they are happy about a rather poor 29% in an eastern federal state shows that they really have no idea.
1
FUENTES
3 months ago
🚨 BIG POLL 🚨 AfD EXPLODING 29% (+4) CDU/CSU in TOTAL COLLAPSE 16% (-3) The old system is FALLING APART, the people are WAKING UP! https://x.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1887934237988303050
Germany Parliamentary Election Winner
mcpetrus
3 months ago
AfD voters are not interested in the price of the kebab; they rather want there to be no more kebab shops. The only party that addresses the high prices is the left.
1
Jmal
3 months ago
I wouldnt vote for the AfD myself but living in NRW I can see a lot more support for them. I'm really thinking AfD has a good shot at winning this time.
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mcpetrus
3 months ago
The poll isn't even for the Bundestag lol. But the numbers are not unusual. They have often been there over 30%. But whatever yes EXPLODING BUY 30%+
1
FUENTES
3 months ago
🚨 BIG POLL 🚨 AfD EXPLODING 29% (+4) CDU/CSU in TOTAL COLLAPSE 16% (-3) The old system is FALLING APART, the people are WAKING UP! https://x.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1887934237988303050
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mcpetrus
3 months ago
The undecided person will mainly decide between the CDU, SPD and the Greens, perhaps a little bit of the FDP. The Greens have often given way to the SPD in the last few meters in the past. The AfD has no potential because 95% of its voters are determined.
1
Flipadelphia
3 months ago
Q for Germans, what's the character profile of the average remaining undecided voter at this point?
Germany Parliamentary Election Winner
mcpetrus
3 months ago
Interesting theory. I see a lot of uproar against the AfD, especially in North Rhine-Westphalia. A survey just for North Rhine-Westphalia sees the CDU there at 34 and the AfD at only 15. Even the SPD and Greens are stronger there with 18 each.
1
Jmal
3 months ago
I wouldnt vote for the AfD myself but living in NRW I can see a lot more support for them. I'm really thinking AfD has a good shot at winning this time.
Germany Parliamentary Election Winner
mcpetrus
3 months ago
Wenn ich mir die Beliebtheitswerde von Kommunisten-Alice ansehe erscheint mir der Wahlsieg der CDU mit einem Besenstiel als Kandidat wahrscheinlicher als ein AfD-Sieg mit der Wunderland-Alice. Aber leider hat die CDU einen im rechten Bereich beliebten Merz und keinen Besenstiel...
1
bfip
3 months ago
entweder gewinnt die cdu und ich hab ein bisschen Taschengeld mehr, oder ich verliere und die AFD gewinnt, dann wird endlich aufgeraeumt und wir kriegen nicht wieder 4 Jahre stillstand. Win-win.
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mcpetrus
3 months ago
It's really amazing how the 25-30 share holders here cling to increasingly absurd theories. One person expects a “terrorist attack by a foreigner,” another expects “a poll that will change everything.” The smell of the burned money can already be smelled. It should be noted: not a single poll sees the AfD at more than 22%. Alice Weidel performs disastrously in the chancellor polls, getting 13-15%. Friedrich Merz, on the other hand, is becoming increasingly popular with AfD supporters and will still draw some away. The most likely figure at the moment is 20-21% for the party but 15-20 is massively underrated. I see the chance of this at 45%, 20-25 ... 55%, all others 0%.
4
Will The Left wins 5% or more of vote in German election?
mcpetrus
3 months ago
Another high Score for them, 6% now Forschungsgruppe poll
2
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mcpetrus
3 months ago
Forschungsgruppe Poll today only sees the AfD at 20%, having previously had the party at 21% three times in a row. So all the institutes settle between 20 and 22, they are a long way from 25.
3
Germany Parliamentary Election Winner
mcpetrus
3 months ago
Brand new Forschungsgruppe poll: CDU 30, AfD 20, SPD 15, Greens 15. There too, the CDU/CSU are again 10% ahead of the AfD and clearly on course for victory.
1
Germany Parliamentary Election Winner
mcpetrus
3 months ago
Of course Not.
1
Trolloftheswamp
3 months ago
Finally mcpetrus would agree with me on this greens and cdu and csu will not happened this has been used by afd and spd now fdp as smear campaign merz doesn’t want to be involve with a second chance campaign
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mcpetrus
3 months ago
Assuming the polls underestimate them with the values you gave, they would still be below 25% in 100% of the polls. lol
0
FUENTES
3 months ago
the margin of error of the polls is 3%. the afd is a shameful and anti-system vote. many reasons to hide it like for example to piss off the pollsters so that they have a surprise on election day. we are going to win BY A LOT !!!
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mcpetrus
3 months ago
Imagine you bet 600k on a value that this party hasn't even achieved in a poll... I would create the most absurd things to give myself hope lol. Although no, I would cash out.
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bobtschigerillo999
3 months ago
For everyone that keeps saying that it is not "shameful" to voice AfD/right opinions nowadays, i recommend watching the recent "Schlagabtausch". According to polling nearly 55% of the population leans right. Not a single person in the room was clapping when right leaning politicians were speaking. The entire room is erupting when a lefty says something. This is whats happening in modern day germany 24/7. If you vote right, you shut up in public, its that simple. Simply not worth putting yourself in the center of attention of the leftist mob kek. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EsEYGQJV79o&ab_channel=ZDFheuteNachrichten
Germany Parliamentary Election Winner
mcpetrus
3 months ago
are you talking about a coalition or what?
0
Trolloftheswamp
3 months ago
Finally mcpetrus would agree with me on this greens and cdu and csu will not happened this has been used by afd and spd now fdp as smear campaign merz doesn’t want to be involve with a second chance campaign
Germany Parliamentary Election Winner
mcpetrus
3 months ago
I have always said here that the CDU/CSU will clearly win the election because there is no way they will fall below 28%. I think it will be 32%. AfD between 18 and 21.
1
Daavid2101
3 months ago
FINALLY mcpetrus agreed with Trolloftheswamp on this greens and cdu and csu will not happened this has been used by afd and spd now fdp as smear campaign merz doesn’t want to be involve with a second chance campaign
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mcpetrus
3 months ago
Die Tendenz steigt ja nicht wirklich, die Institute gleichen sich nur an. Entscheidender aber ist das die fuer 25% mindestens 20% im Westen brauchen. Das ist unmoeglich. Es gibt ja fuer NRW und Bayern Umfragen die sie bei 15 und 16% sehen. Das passt sehr gut zu 19-21% bundesweit aber nicht zu 25%.
0
Trolloftheswamp
3 months ago
infratest sees cdu/csu at 31% and 10% ahead of the AfD. It is very clear and actually already decided. CDU/CSU will win this election.
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mcpetrus
3 months ago
Das waere bedauerlich.
0
Exeggut
3 months ago
@Trolloftheswamp was sind deine Pronomen?
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mcpetrus
3 months ago
Verrat mir lieber mal was du mit deinen 12k machst wenn die AfD 19,9 erreicht.
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Exeggut
3 months ago
@Trolloftheswamp was sind deine Pronomen?
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mcpetrus
3 months ago
Ja er ist Autist, aber das ist euer Elon auch. Also lass ihn in Ruhe 😉
0
Exeggut
3 months ago
@Trolloftheswamp was sind deine Pronomen?
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mcpetrus
3 months ago
I wonder why it continues to be around 30% for 25% or more even though there isn't a single poll that shows them at over 22%. The shameful voter does not exist in Germany or the surveys compensate for it very well. So what's behind it?
1
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mcpetrus
3 months ago
Das sind immer noch deutlich unter 25%. Yougov hatte die AfD ausserdem 4% ueberschaetzt bei der Europawahl. Koennten also genauso gut 18% sein da Yougov sie momentan bei 22% hat.
1
Trolloftheswamp
3 months ago
infratest sees cdu/csu at 31% and 10% ahead of the AfD. It is very clear and actually already decided. CDU/CSU will win this election.
Germany Parliamentary Election Winner
mcpetrus
3 months ago
It will not have a major impact on the election results. And after the election there won't be enough for a coalition anyway.
1
mcpetrus
3 months ago
infratest sees cdu/csu at 31% and 10% ahead of the AfD. It is very clear and actually already decided. CDU/CSU will win this election.
Germany Parliamentary Election Winner
mcpetrus
3 months ago
infratest sees cdu/csu at 31% and 10% ahead of the AfD. It is very clear and actually already decided. CDU/CSU will win this election.
1
Germany Parliamentary Election Winner
mcpetrus
3 months ago
New Yougov: https://yougov.de/elections/de/2025
1
Greens win over 15% of vote in German election?
mcpetrus
3 months ago
They are rising in some polls to 15% but they have big Problems when IT Comes to Younger vorers because Theyre turning to the left Party.
0
CDU/CSU % of vote in German Election?
mcpetrus
3 months ago
Allensbach is the worst survey company because they have an outdated methodology. You are also very close to the CDU
0
Cisomate2901
3 months ago
According to Politico Berlin Playbook Podcast today Allensbach will publish a new poll on Friday. CDU will be probably unchanged or only with marginal adjsutments to last poll (34%). They also state that Allensbach had the closest prediction before the 2021 election
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mcpetrus
3 months ago
OK then buy more 25-30. Go burn Money..
4
ELMAPO
3 months ago
https://www.tichyseinblick.de/daili-es-sentials/us-umfrage-union-27-prozent-afd-25-spd-15-gruene-13/
Will The Left make it into the Bundestag as a Fraktion?
mcpetrus
3 months ago
There is simply a part of the younger population that finds the Left's election campaign refreshing and good as a rough demarcation from all other parties. It's a strange mix of frustration and optimism. Nobody knows whether that's enough for 5%, but the trend clearly speaks for it.
0
Will The Left wins 5% or more of vote in German election?
mcpetrus
3 months ago
It is true that most polls saw the left at around 6% in the last election and then only 4.9%, but back then there was a clear downward trend. They started at 10% and fell further and further as the election got closer. This time the situation is completely different. A few months ago, some of the leftists weren't even reported individually because they were less than 3%. Now they are seen almost everywhere at 5%, Yougov even at 6%. Yougov, of all people, who they otherwise saw as particularly low. The election campaign so far has been perfect for the left. Everyone, including the middle-left camp, only talks about migration and how bad it all is. The Left is the only party to talk about the high prices in supermarkets and housing. I wouldn't be surprised if it goes up to 7-8%.
2
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mcpetrus
3 months ago
Du Wahnsinnicher, wird eng mit den 15%...
1
MeddlDrache
3 months ago
So, Forsa ist fertig runtergeladen
Germany Parliamentary Election Winner
mcpetrus
3 months ago
Dont know.
2
Trolloftheswamp
3 months ago
Hey mcpetrus I’m panicked over that poll of forsa where cdu is down by two points should I worry or no
Germany Parliamentary Election Winner
mcpetrus
3 months ago
Imagine burning 100k lol
2
0xLehman
3 months ago
Study Geert Wilders' PVV victory in The Netherlands in 2023. Polls were way off. People are afraid to tell others that they are voting for an anti-immigration party. Exact same scenario as the German election now.
Which coalition will form the next German government?
mcpetrus
3 months ago
"Other"
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BoMarley1029
3 months ago
How do I bet ona CDU minority government?
Germany Parliamentary Election Winner
mcpetrus
3 months ago
lol ignore it.
1
Trolloftheswamp
3 months ago
@mcpetrus read this https://www.freilich-magazin.com/politik/umfrage-hammer-afd-in-neuer-umfrage-bei-25-prozent
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mcpetrus
3 months ago
That's because it's a stupid survey. Nobody knows the institute. It seems all about hurting Elon Musk. Just ignore it.
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Chrikim
3 months ago
Latest Poll (big sample size): 25% AfDhttps://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/afd-elon-musk-germany-election-poll-b2690389.html
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mcpetrus
3 months ago
This “poll” that is floating around the internet and says 35% want Weidel as chancellor has nothing to do with serious opinion research. In the reputable polls of all German institutes it reaches less than 20%. and it's only AfD voters who want Weidel. But the poll says the AfD is at 25%. So that is completely out of the question. It seems to have been created by someone who has a problem with Elon Musk. But no one in Germany talks about Musk anymore. they completely overestimate it. ignore this rubbish. Insa's new survey continues to see an unchanged and clear lead for the CDU.
1
Germany Parliamentary Election Winner
mcpetrus
3 months ago
There is no poll that contains these values. INSA always appears on Saturday and Monday evenings, Forsa on Tuesdays at lunchtime, Infratest on Thursday evenings and Research Group on Friday mornings.
1
Trolloftheswamp
3 months ago
@mcpetrus what do think of the poll that showed a 27-25 for the cdu I want to know I think it’s just being overhyped I wait for other polls to come out later on
CDU/CSU % of vote in German Election?
mcpetrus
3 months ago
An INSA poll from today says that one in five current AfD voters could still vote for the CDU because of Merz's actions last week. Given the AfD's 20-22% poll numbers, that would be around 4-5%. Recent events have also strengthened their positive opinion of Merz among CDU voters. 50% are now even more convinced to vote for him, only 6% are now doubtful and for the rest nothing has changed.
3
Germany Parliamentary Election Winner
mcpetrus
3 months ago
the thesis is not proven by anything. Of course, the CDU can lose some voters, but it won't end up below 28%. and that's definitely enough for first place. However, I think it will end up at 32%.
1
Daavid2101
3 months ago
CDU lost 10% of their party members this weekend. If they lose 10% of their members, they will for sure lose way more than 10% of their voters. Assuming equal voter migration to SPD, Greens and perhabs FPD, it is LFG for AfD :) Polls in one week will be fire and may already show a new leader
Germany Parliamentary Election Winner
mcpetrus
3 months ago
No!
1
Trolloftheswamp
3 months ago
@mcpetrus do you think the protest or Merkel will destroy the cdu or no not really
Germany Parliamentary Election Winner
mcpetrus
3 months ago
it wasn't a shit show. Most people thought it was good that Merz tried it. The left-wing demonstrations do not reflect the majority. Merz will not lose anything in this direction and may even gain from the right.
1
mcpetrus
3 months ago
The market manipulation here is astounding. AfD went from 8 to 18% and back down to 10% within 5 minutes. Is this one person pumping tens of thousands of dollars into this? And what is the motive behind it?
Germany Parliamentary Election Winner
mcpetrus
3 months ago
but why? No one in Germany knows Polymarket.
1
mcpetrus
3 months ago
The market manipulation here is astounding. AfD went from 8 to 18% and back down to 10% within 5 minutes. Is this one person pumping tens of thousands of dollars into this? And what is the motive behind it?
Germany Parliamentary Election Winner
mcpetrus
3 months ago
The market manipulation here is astounding. AfD went from 8 to 18% and back down to 10% within 5 minutes. Is this one person pumping tens of thousands of dollars into this? And what is the motive behind it?
2
Which coalition will form the next German government?
mcpetrus
3 months ago
This market is more interesting because the deadline is until the end of the year and not June 30th. They are guaranteed to complete any of the options rather than spend a year without a proper government. If it's enough for the CDU and FDP, they will definitely do it. The problem is that 99% of the time it won't be enough. The CDU would have to achieve at least 35% and the FDP 5% but even then it would still be tight.
3
Next Chancellor of Germany?
mcpetrus
3 months ago
Merz is the only one who has a realistic chance but it is lower than it was a few days ago. Many are wondering how he plans to form a coalition. And the market only runs until June 30th. Chance definitely significantly lower than 90%.
3
Germany Parliamentary Election Winner
mcpetrus
3 months ago
So first of all I'm wondering why INSA has a new poll every day now lol. And to the question: Yes, the CDU could still rise to 35%, the AfD to a maximum of 23%, but probably less.
1
Trolloftheswamp
3 months ago
Yall the poll are now staying the same while this failed bill gave afd a little bit of a boost it didn’t give them the boost they needed according to the insa post and poll which means it’s likely cdu will stay stable and afd gain a little bit before staying stable again but 20-25 for afd seems very reasonable for this election and 30-35 for cdu and csu will seem reasonable as well
Germany Parliamentary Election Winner
mcpetrus
3 months ago
@swamp: There won't be any major changes. The CDU voters are almost all “closed-knit” people who think Merz’s way is right. They will not fall lower than 28%. Everything is open up to around 35%. I already wrote to you yesterday that I rate the CDU at 32 and the AfD at just under 20.
2
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mcpetrus
3 months ago
You can See in Chart someone tries to manipulate the Market.
1
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mcpetrus
3 months ago
Heavily. Possibility of under 20 is Higher.
2
Trolloftheswamp
3 months ago
Hey mcpetrus what do you think about 25-30 is it overvalued or no
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mcpetrus
3 months ago
Hes in with 363. Thats insane.
1
Trolloftheswamp
3 months ago
Only reason 25-30 is so high because someone who afd fan keeps buying it like it’s candy Even though their not a lot of evidence to show that afd will win this election even if that bill failed yesterday
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mcpetrus
3 months ago
Thats nothing new Dude. Lol. In with 363k. Insane.
1
bobtschigerillo999
3 months ago
good morning chads. One of the biggest BTC advocates also speaking out in favor of the AfD and interviewing Weidel today. Enjoy your weekends https://x.com/marcfriedrich7/status/1885498969205162463
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mcpetrus
3 months ago
33% possibility for 25% or more is crazy lol. 0% Chance for that.
5
Germany Parliamentary Election Winner
mcpetrus
3 months ago
not barely but clear. The AfD is not a party for a sudden, sharp increase shortly before the election. That has never been the case and will not be the case now. The fact that the market sees the opportunity for 25% or higher at 33% just shows how an ignorant few are burning money because they believe the surveys are underestimating.
3
Bossii1394
3 months ago
Afd will win,
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mcpetrus
3 months ago
hard to say. The polls said most people wanted Merz's law but most people also didn't want cooperation with the AfD. So Merz essentially achieved the wrong thing twice. But the majority of Germans are a bit more level-headed than, for example, the Americans and know that migration policy, for example, cannot be completely changed with a single law (which would never be implemented anyway because the second chamber of parliament would have rejected it). So it's difficult to say, but all in all this will all help Merz. The fact that it didn't work will be secondary. As of now I would estimate: CDU/CSU 32, AfD 19, SPD 18, Greens 12
1
Trolloftheswamp
3 months ago
@mcpetrus what’s your election prediction after this shit show in your opinion
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mcpetrus
3 months ago
yes, and the market is going crazy because apparently individual participants are completely overestimating the events. the AfD will reach well below 25%, perhaps below 20%. Merz will perhaps lose a little to the SPD. that was it.
2
Trolloftheswamp
3 months ago
So we will see next week however I highly doubt that afd will get above 25-30 maybe max 27 but most lost voters will go to spd or Green Party instead for the cdu
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mcpetrus
3 months ago
Whats going in with you lol. Nothing will Change.
1
Trolloftheswamp
3 months ago
So we will see next week however I highly doubt that afd will get above 25-30 maybe max 27 but most lost voters will go to spd or Green Party instead for the cdu
Next Chancellor of Germany?
mcpetrus
3 months ago
After hours of debate, Merz has just failed with a law that he wanted to pass with the AfD. Many CDU members refused to vote for it. He seems exhausted.
3
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mcpetrus
3 months ago
The situation surrounding Merz is indeed not good for the AfD. He has caught everyone's attention and he is the man of the hour. The left always thinks it's harmful but like in other countries it either doesn't matter or is even good for the person being criticized. Most people say Merz's migration policy plan is good. I don't know whether the AfD could fall significantly below 20%, but I'm very sure that due to the new situation it won't get higher than 22%.
1
Which Party wins 2nd most seats in German election?
mcpetrus
3 months ago
The anti-Merz rallies are a new situation for the AfD as it is not the center of attention for the first time. I still see a chance that the SPD could get second place if Merz manages to poach some AfD supporters and the SPD wins over some uncertain Greens. At the moment there is no prospect of this based on the polls but there are still over 3 weeks until the election.
1
Next Chancellor of Germany?
mcpetrus
3 months ago
Anti Merz rallies are rather good for him because there are only people there who have never voted for the CDU anyway. In any case, it's good as long as he doesn't buckle and change course, but he doesn't look like it will. It is a completely new situation for the AfD as it is no longer at the center of the turmoil. Maybe Merz could even attract some AfD supporters after all.
1
Germany Parliamentary Election Winner
mcpetrus
3 months ago
The CDU/CSU also loses slightly in Infratest dimap, but reaches 30% and remains well ahead of the AfD, which remains at 20%.
1
Next Chancellor of Germany?
mcpetrus
3 months ago
The air for Merz is getting thinner and thinner. Now Angela Merkel has intervened and criticized him heavily. A catastrophe for Merz since Merkel still enjoys a high reputation among the CDU's core voters.
4
Will The Left wins 5% or more of vote in German election?
mcpetrus
3 months ago
Interesting detail from today's poll from the research group: The Left rises to 8% in the raw data, the highest value in 4 years. This is the data actually determined before the institute weights the data. After the weighting, the left still gets 5%, which is enough to get into parliament.
2
Germany Parliamentary Election Winner
mcpetrus
3 months ago
Forschungsgruppe sees another decline in CDU/CSU, but still clearly in first place with 29%. AfD remains at 21%. Poll was taken shortly before Yesterday Events in parliament
2
Next Chancellor of Germany?
mcpetrus
3 months ago
After today's events, I don't see how Friedrich Merz can become chancellor given the current polls. The SPD will never make him chancellor. the 94% here is absurdly high.
4
Germany Parliamentary Election Winner
mcpetrus
3 months ago
Today's events will turn everything upside down. Germany is wobbling considerably.
2
Next Chancellor of Germany?
mcpetrus
3 months ago
Friedrich Merz is the only candidate who has a realistic chance of being elected chancellor before June 30th. In my opinion, current events are making this chance drop significantly, at least well below the 95% stated here. If Merz and the AfD decide on laws this week, and it looks like he will, it will be very difficult for the SPD to make him chancellor at all, especially by the end of June. With the votes of the AfD, which he once described as National Socialists, he will definitely not allow himself to be made chancellor. So he would have to achieve significantly higher percentages than the surveys currently say, namely 35 to 38 instead of 30 AND the FDP would have to make it into the Bundestag so that it is enough for this coalition and he can certainly become Chancellor.
3
Which Parties will be part of next German Government?
mcpetrus
3 months ago
The Greens have announced that if Merz works with the AfD in parliament this week and Merz wins the election, they will not form a coalition with him. but both will happen. It's surprising that the chance for green is still 27%. I am now also skeptical about the SPD. The fact that there will be no government at all by June 30th is currently unlikely but no longer unimaginable.
4
CDU/CSU % of vote in German Election?
mcpetrus
3 months ago
35%+ is an interesting bet. I'm relatively sure the option will increase in the next few days.
2
BSW wins 5% or more of vote in German election?
mcpetrus
3 months ago
There is still the effect in Germany that people don't admit to voting for the AfD, but it is no longer as pronounced as it was 8 years ago. In the past, survey companies had to at least double the raw value determined to compensate for the effect. Now they only have to add about a quarter and are doing very well. As far as the BSW is concerned, the problem is that it is a completely new party that cannot be classified in a clear political direction. They were overestimated in the state elections, but only slightly.
2
p01ym33rk4t
3 months ago
Amateurs. It's an easy No because opinion polls always inflate for the minor parties. When the actual election comes, there's strategic voting to ensure the government has a strong mandate, and with AfD surging, many who claimed they are for BSW will go to AfD opponents. Look up the last election https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_German_federal_election. That's before accounting for the liberal bias in responses as there is a shy right-wing voter effect. Look at Linke last election in the link: they were 6-9% in EVERY SINGLE OPINION POLL, but at the election they got 4.9%. Same thing will happen but even more safer with 4%-6% dropping easily to 3% since people are even less confident they will break into the Bundestag and thus strategically not waste their vote and spend it on enemy parties of AfD.
Germany Parliamentary Election Winner
mcpetrus
3 months ago
84k burned, thats crazy.
1
noblesse.oblige
3 months ago
Germany might not have a chance for real change anytime soon, it's now or never
Germany Parliamentary Election Winner
mcpetrus
3 months ago
Imagining burning 76.4 k for nothing 🤣
1
noblesse.oblige
3 months ago
AfD must win unless Germans strangely hate their own country. I'll keep my money here, loss of Germany is loss of every free human around the world.
CDU/CSU % of vote in German Election?
mcpetrus
3 months ago
Merz hat nix mit Merkel zu tun, jeder bei Verstand weiss das.
2
Aadler12345
3 months ago
CDU caused all this mess...people voting for this party dont deserve any better than more crime and other problems...
Next Chancellor of Germany?
mcpetrus
3 months ago
Why did Merz rise so high in two days, wasn't Weidel still at 7% yesterday?
1
Next Chancellor of Germany?
mcpetrus
3 months ago
Habe gelacht.
2
MaggusSoeder
3 months ago
Frechheit
Will Trump resign in 2025?
mcpetrus
3 months ago
I guess if he dies that doesn't count as a resignation.
1
BSW wins 5% or more of vote in German election?
mcpetrus
3 months ago
Some polls show 6-7 % other only 3%.
0
Germany Parliamentary Election Winner
mcpetrus
3 months ago
It's crazy that the CDU/CSU are now continuing to rise here, even though they previously promised nothing else in migration policy. It was clear that they would win anyway.
2
AfD banned before German election?
mcpetrus
3 months ago
Lol that's really free money. No application for it had even been filed and it would take years before there would be a verdict.
3
Germany Parliamentary Election Winner
mcpetrus
3 months ago
New YouGov poll from today shows an increase for the SPD: CDU/CSU 28, SPD 19, AfD 19, Greens 15. This is the first poll in the election campaign that shows a different structure. The SPD is on par with the AfD instead of 5% behind and the gap between the CDU/CSU is narrowing, although it remains relatively large. https://yougov.de/politics/articles/51436-cducsu-bleibt-unter-30-perzent-die-afd-versliert-zwei-perzentpointen-ein-drittel-hat-sich-noch-nicht-endgultig-entscheiden
2
Which Party wins 2nd most seats in German election?
mcpetrus
3 months ago
SPD AfD now tied 19-19 Yougov poll
5
Greens win over 15% of vote in German election?
mcpetrus
3 months ago
Yougov now sees them at 15%, best Score in a year.
6
SPD % of vote in German Election?
mcpetrus
3 months ago
Yougov now sees them at 19
2
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mcpetrus
3 months ago
Yougov sees them only at 19, too
2
Next Chancellor of Germany?
mcpetrus
3 months ago
0,00% is realistic.
3
nicoco89
3 months ago
here we are guys. alice finally going to a realistic level
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mcpetrus
3 months ago
Your Username says it all...
3
GodSaveRomania
3 months ago
15 to 20 is super overvalued, I would say 25%+ is more likely than that.
Which Party wins 2nd most seats in German election?
mcpetrus
3 months ago
The Greens are currently having a small scandal, the impact is unclear, but the chances of second place for the SPD seem greater to me than in the market. Shortly before the end, Green supporters often switch to the SPD, and the AfD falls slightly again.
3
Germany Parliamentary Election Winner
mcpetrus
3 months ago
The FPO is stronger in the cities because it is generally stronger. Also, it depends on the city. In run-down cities like Gelsenkirchen the AfD is very strong but in well-developed university cities like Bonn, Hamburg, Munich etc. it is extremely bad. The problem for the AfD is that there are only a few Gelsenkirchens in Germany.
1
val1985
3 months ago
i would give the AfD a chance to win the election if they would be stronger in urban areas. That is their biggest weaknes. You cant compare the AfD to the FPO in Austria. The FPO is much stronger in urban areas than the AfD. The CDU CSU is way more stable in urban areas. Even the socialdemocrats and the green party are stronger in the big german cities than the AfD. That is something the AfD has to work on. It would be more usefull to work on this issue than to have interviews with Elon Musk
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mcpetrus
3 months ago
Many ideological people here in the forum don't understand Germany. They say you shouldn't pay attention to the polls that show the AfD falling (by 1%), but when the same polls show a 1% increase, they see that as an indication that the AfD will skyrocket to infinite heights. that's funny. and a real opportunity for realists who just want to make money.
4
What will Trump say during inauguration speech?
mcpetrus
3 months ago
At least Theyre present...
0
jman12f
3 months ago
kamla and biden sitting and not clapping haha
Germany Parliamentary Election Winner
mcpetrus
3 months ago
You are probably referring to this poll https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/jan/17/elon-musk-uk-germany-favourability-yougov-poll Well, it's true, but when it comes to Germany, the influence of foreign actors is overestimated anyway. This applies to Musk as well as to Putin without me wanting to compare the two.
1
Trolloftheswamp
3 months ago
Elon Musk is astoundingly unpopular in Europe In Italy, Germany, and the UK he has a 70%+ disapproval rating 80% of Ireland believes he's a threat to democracy These poll results come after he's made recent headlines/political interventions in all of these countries
Which Parties will be part of next German Government?
mcpetrus
3 months ago
Very likely
1
n/a
3 months ago
how likely are the chances that a government is even formed before june 30
Germany Parliamentary Election Winner
mcpetrus
3 months ago
Today's poll for the federal state of North Rhine-Westphalia where one in four Germans lives Shows massive lead for CDU/CSU: CDU/CSU 34, SPD 18, Greens 18, AfD 15 https://www1.wdr.de/nachrichten/landespolitik/nrw-trend-januar-2025-100.html
3
Which Party wins 2nd most seats in German election?
mcpetrus
4 months ago
New INSA Poll 1/18/25: CDU/CSU 29 (-1), AfD 21 (-1), SPD 16, Greens 13.. SPD undervalued Here, no big gap
2
Germany Parliamentary Election Winner
mcpetrus
4 months ago
New INSA Poll 1/18/25: CDU/CSU 29 (-1), AfD 21 (-1), SPD 16, Greens 13. Lowest CDU Score for months.
1
Next Chancellor of Germany?
mcpetrus
4 months ago
Anyone who knows Germany knows that it is impossible. I think some are influenced by Austria, where the FPOE will presumably nominate the chancellor, and think it could also be possible in Germany. but that's not how it works. It took the FPOE over 50 years to do this, the AfD has only existed for 12 years and has in no way integrated itself into the party system like the FPOE did.
5
n/a
4 months ago
The only way Alice Weidel could become chancellor would be if the AfD were to win an absolute majority or at least more votes than the CDU - current polls: CDU 30-32%, AfD 20-22% - and at the same time the CDU were to agree on a coalition. The CDU has already publicly ruled out a coalition with the AfD, both on the part of Friedrich Merz and at the party conference.
Which Parties will be part of next German Government?
mcpetrus
4 months ago
Do shareholders realize that a party has to make it into the Bundestag in order to participate in the government?
3
CDU/CSU % of vote in German Election?
mcpetrus
4 months ago
Today's YouGov model sees the party at 29.8
2
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mcpetrus
4 months ago
Today's YouGov model sees the party at 19.7%.
2
Germany Parliamentary Election Winner
mcpetrus
4 months ago
Yougov has published an election model with daily updates. Data on January 17th: CDU/CSU 29.8, AfD 19.7, SPD 15.6, Greens 13.6, BSW 6, FDP 4.5, others 10.7 https://yougov.de/elections/de/2025 It should be taken into account that YouGov's polls do not have a particularly good reputation in German elections.
1
Germany Parliamentary Election Winner
mcpetrus
4 months ago
It's not even true lol
2
0xFancyFox
4 months ago
AfD was the only party invited to Trumps inauguration and you are still heavily invested in CDU "yes" shares? LMFAO.
Which Party wins 2nd most seats in German election?
mcpetrus
4 months ago
Interesting Yougov Poll from today: CDU 30, AfD 21, SPD 18, Green 14. Best SPD score since summer 2023
3
Germany Parliamentary Election Winner
mcpetrus
4 months ago
I think that the AfD could rise to a maximum of 23-25% with a radical election campaign and if the others, especially Merz, mess up, even if that is not very likely. More likely is 18 to 21% but even if they reach 25% the CDU will not fall below 28%.
1
mcpetrus
4 months ago
The AfD is also catching up in today's Forsa poll, but only slightly. The gap remains very large at 11%. CDU 31, AfD 20, SPD 16, Green 13 https://www.n-tv.de/politik/AfD-springt-nach-Weidels-Hitler-Aussagen-auf-20-Percent-article25487326.html
Germany Parliamentary Election Winner
mcpetrus
4 months ago
Yes, they definitely have to make up a lot more ground each week to seriously scratch the No. 1 spot. In the 2021 election campaign, for example, the SPD moved the gap to the CDU from 30 to 15% to 23 to 23% within 2-3 weeks, i.e. closed down 15 percentage points. This rapid change in mood does not appear to be happening again
0
mcpetrus
4 months ago
The AfD is also catching up in today's Forsa poll, but only slightly. The gap remains very large at 11%. CDU 31, AfD 20, SPD 16, Green 13 https://www.n-tv.de/politik/AfD-springt-nach-Weidels-Hitler-Aussagen-auf-20-Percent-article25487326.html
Germany Parliamentary Election Winner
mcpetrus
4 months ago
The AfD is also catching up in today's Forsa poll, but only slightly. The gap remains very large at 11%. CDU 31, AfD 20, SPD 16, Green 13 https://www.n-tv.de/politik/AfD-springt-nach-Weidels-Hitler-Aussagen-auf-20-Percent-article25487326.html
2
Germany Parliamentary Election Winner
mcpetrus
4 months ago
New Insa poll today CDU 31 (+1), AfD 22 (+-0)
2
Next Chancellor of Germany?
mcpetrus
4 months ago
True, but it doesn't help him. Parties are elected, not people. And 99.9% of the time only the person who represents the strongest party becomes chancellor.
3
n/a
4 months ago
Habeck is extremely undervalued. Most popular candidate right now.
Next Chancellor of Germany?
mcpetrus
4 months ago
Merz today linked his own fate to the AfD firewall. He would resign if his party opposed him. There's nothing to suggest that at the moment, but it's another indication that Merz's chance is less than 90%. I'm missing an "Other" option here which I would see at 25% and Merz at 75%. The others available to choose from here all have 0% chance.
4
Germany Parliamentary Election Winner
mcpetrus
4 months ago
That is not right. Compared to September, the AfD repeatedly had fluctuations between 18 and 20%. The fact that it is now at 22% is still within the statistical margin of error. If they are at 25% we can continue talking.
1
Daavid2101
4 months ago
AfD gaining ground in latest INSA poll while CDU losing more and more as Fritze fails hard to connect with voters. Assuming linear growth, AfD will overtake CDU in about 3-4 weeks. But keep in mind, political momentum shifts are most of the time not linear but exponentially. Going to buy more soon, risk-to-reward ratio still phenomenal :)
Germany Parliamentary Election Winner
mcpetrus
4 months ago
It's not their peak. They had several polls a year ago at 23%.
2
ChristianHorst
4 months ago
Afd at 22% now (highscore) according to latest polls. CDU has published their agenda 2030 yesterday which will reduce sympathy due to harsh social reforms. SPD & Greens will gain momentum. See all polls here: https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
Greens win over 15% of vote in German election?
mcpetrus
4 months ago
I cant
0
mcpetrus
4 months ago
After more than a year, a poll today by the research group sees the Greens back at 15%. At 27% their candidate is also the only one who does significantly better than his party.
Germany Parliamentary Election Winner
mcpetrus
4 months ago
In the first polls of the new year, CDU/CSU are losing support despite their conservative election campaign, while the AfD and the Greens are gaining ground. The CDU is only 9 instead of 12 points ahead of the AfD and the Greens are achieving their best poll numbers in a year. As of now, it remains unlikely that anyone other than the CDU/CSU will become the strongest party, but a small trend that speaks against them cannot be dismissed.
2
Greens win over 15% of vote in German election?
mcpetrus
4 months ago
After more than a year, a poll today by the research group sees the Greens back at 15%. At 27% their candidate is also the only one who does significantly better than his party.
1
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mcpetrus
4 months ago
This conversation was indeed boring and of poor technical quality. I switched off after 20 minutes. It was noted to Elon that he had little interest in the AfD and preferred to speak for himself. Later they talked about God for another 15 minutes as I read. A bizarre event.
6
Greens win over 15% of vote in German election?
mcpetrus
4 months ago
They are currently stuck at 13-14% but their candidate is currently the most popular of all but at a low level. exciting market.
0
Next Chancellor of Germany?
mcpetrus
4 months ago
Merz is shockingly unpopular. According to a poll today, only 25% like him. 6% less than his party. The election campaign will be very interesting.
2
Next Chancellor of Germany?
mcpetrus
4 months ago
Yes, and Santa Claus is coming tomorrow.
2
ster
4 months ago
Here's how Alice Weidel could win: The AfD siphons off 5% of CDU/CSU voters, leveraging Weidel's strong performance in a TV debate to appeal to conservative audiences. Coalition talks between the CDU/CSU and SPD/Greens collapse, torn apart by irreconcilable differences on migration and social policies. Friedrich Merz resigns, and under new leadership - driven by Carsten Linnemann, Alexander Dobrindt, Michael Kretschmer, or Jens Spahn - the CDU/CSU shifts its stance for programmatic or power-political reasons and tolerates an AfD-led government. It's just happening in Austria.
Germany Parliamentary Election Winner
mcpetrus
4 months ago
Infratest poll: CDU 31, AfD 20, SPD 15, Greens 14. It is interesting that all candidates have better values than the party except Merz, who only has 25% approval and Weidel, who has the same value as her party. At 28%, Habeck from the Greens is twice as popular as his party. This could be a warning for the election campaign because Merz is shockingly unpopular.
1
Will Trump jail Kamala Harris?
mcpetrus
4 months ago
Another ridiculous market. My goodness.
1
Which Party wins 2nd most seats in German election?
mcpetrus
4 months ago
First Forsa poll of the year says CDU/CSU 32%, AfD 19, SPD 17, Green 12. https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Union-startet-mit-sattem-Vorsprung-in-Wochen-der-Wahrheit-article25471883.html
3
How many people will Trump deport in 2025?
mcpetrus
4 months ago
He won't "deport" anyone because that's what the police do. Horrible market...
0
Which Parties will be part of next German Government?
mcpetrus
4 months ago
Yes, there are a handful of CDU representatives in the East. But only 15% of the German population lives there. Nobody in the West wants to work with the AfD. And CDU voters also have little interest in a coalition with the AfD. The vast majority, there is a poll where 40%, want a coalition with the SPD and 25% with the FDP. With the Greens 10% and with the AfD just 5%. I therefore ask myself on this topic where they got the information from. CDU voters would very much like to have a coalition with the AfD.
1
Daavid2101
4 months ago
People in this market may not be aware that inside CDU are internal conflicts wether AfD should be in for coalition negotations or not. Merz might give in on pressure. On the other hand, if AfD wins this election (which is a real possibility given the current momentum forming), Merz anti-AfD attitude may mean nothing, as (in this case) he would have blundered the election and hasnt that much to say anymore. Remember: Laschet basically vanished from politics the moment they "lost" the 2021 election.
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mcpetrus
4 months ago
Well, the perpetrator was in the country legally and even supported the AfD. This act was therefore not suitable for the AfD. Across Germany, the best result so far was 15.9% in the European elections in June 2024. The best result so far in a federal election was in 2017 with 12.6%.
2
mcpetrus
4 months ago
It's crazy that the chance for 20+ is around 60% even though the polls are all at 18-20%.
SPD % of vote in German Election?
mcpetrus
4 months ago
In my opinion they will either get 10-15 or 20+. They will either absorb the Greens in the election campaign or collapse themselves.
1
Greens win over 15% of vote in German election?
mcpetrus
4 months ago
They are currently at 13-14% but the poll companies that usually have them very low also have them at 13%. It should be an exciting thing. In any case, they have a candidate who could manage to attract the strongly optimistic part of the population. It's not big but it's enough for at least 15%.
4
Which Parties will be part of next German Government?
mcpetrus
4 months ago
There are conflicts within the CDU about whether one should work with the Greens. But the same question with the AfD does not exist in the party. It is very clear that there will be no cooperation. For the life of me, I don't know where you got this impression from.
1
Daavid2101
4 months ago
People in this market may not be aware that inside CDU are internal conflicts wether AfD should be in for coalition negotations or not. Merz might give in on pressure. On the other hand, if AfD wins this election (which is a real possibility given the current momentum forming), Merz anti-AfD attitude may mean nothing, as (in this case) he would have blundered the election and hasnt that much to say anymore. Remember: Laschet basically vanished from politics the moment they "lost" the 2021 election.
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mcpetrus
4 months ago
It's crazy that the chance for 20+ is around 60% even though the polls are all at 18-20%.
6
Germany Parliamentary Election Winner
mcpetrus
4 months ago
Some people here greatly overestimate Elon Musk's influence. As a German, I think it's more likely that Musk's "help" could actually harm the AfD. The core supporters of this party are actually very anti-American and they are also hostile to the modern technologies that Musk stands for. Sahra Wagenknecht, who is considered the AfD's biggest opponent in the "system-rejecting spectrum", has already noticed this and is massively criticizing the AfD because of Musk, even though she never criticizes them otherwise...
7
Which Parties will be part of next German Government?
mcpetrus
4 months ago
That is correct. They could get 40% of the vote and not get into government. I can't explain the 6% probability either because it's 0.0% probability.
1
d2d/6fig
4 months ago
tbh the likelihood of the afd getring into the goverment is close to zero if you actually follow german politics not daying that they cant get over 20% and its even possible ( even tho extremly unlikely) that the become strongest party the would still not get into the goverment and germans know that so ya thanks for money
Which Parties will be part of next German Government?
mcpetrus
4 months ago
I also see it as too high. But FDP at 20% is even crazier because according to the polls they don't get into parliament at all. The Greens will definitely get into parliament and the CDU may HAVE to take them into government. Not very likely but possible.
3
0x69D470Dbb97Dd243a3181eB2929cF17cd4B95423-1735738044587
4 months ago
Greens at 36c doesnt even make sense.
Which Parties will be part of next German Government?
mcpetrus
4 months ago
It may be that the firewall will come down “at some point” but definitely not with this election. The argument is not at all convincing.
6
mcpetrus
4 months ago
Can the shareholders of “AfD yes” explain to me how exactly the party is supposed to make it into government?
Germany Parliamentary Election Winner
mcpetrus
4 months ago
The AfD had 30% in the local elections in the former GDR in September. In order to overtake the CDU/CSU throughout Germany, they would have to rise to 45% there within 5 weeks and also rise to 25% in the western areas where many more people live. That's just completely impossible. But you are free to burn money.
3
0xFancyFox
4 months ago
Happy New Year to all my German patriots! And to my dear counterparties: thank you for the free money - these odds are even better than Trump vs. Kamala popular vote.
Which Parties will be part of next German Government?
mcpetrus
4 months ago
Can the shareholders of “AfD yes” explain to me how exactly the party is supposed to make it into government?
1
Next Chancellor of Germany?
mcpetrus
4 months ago
The situation of this market is crazy. Of course Merz is the favorite but the election campaign hasn't even started yet. Merz has ruled out working with everyone except the SPD. But what if it's not enough for this coalition? Many in the SPD also hate him. The situation is much more complicated than 93% for Merz say. I would see it at 70%. The fact that Weidel stands at 4% with 0.0% chances is also strange.
1
CDU/CSU % of vote in German Election?
mcpetrus
4 months ago
31% First Poll after christmas
1
Which Party wins 2nd most seats in German election?
mcpetrus
4 months ago
In the above-mentioned guest article it becomes clear that his knowledge of the party does not go beyond a few accidentally seen tweets. it's really amazing. some even say grok wrote the text.
3
0xb5df0874c43f95e64af13c3ffe6d6a79bcab469
4 months ago
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-28/elon-musk-doubles-down-on-support-for-german-far-right-party-afd?srnd=homepage-americas
Which Parties will be part of next German Government?
mcpetrus
4 months ago
There are no polls about this. However since the Covid pandemic, the “leading” media have described him as a “mad”, “conspiracy theorist” and “right-wing extremist”. Since then there has basically been no more positive reporting about him. However Musk published a guest article in one of these media today in which it became clear that he hardly knows anything about the AfD party. For example, he didn't know that the party wanted to prevent its "gigafactories" and was fundamentally against electric cars. But he doesn't seem to care either.
3
Trolloftheswamp
4 months ago
Do Germans like Elon musk
Greens win over 15% of vote in German election?
mcpetrus
4 months ago
At bet365 you can already bet on who will be the new US president in 2028.
7
JanJansen1
4 months ago
Why bet on a election that is 2 months away
Greens win over 15% of vote in German election?
mcpetrus
5 months ago
In the polls the party is consistently at 13 to 14% but today there was a poll where its candidate Robert Habeck was rated as "good" with 27%. This puts him just behind Friedrich Merz. It could still be exciting. I already wrote about it in the SPD market: It may be that one of the two parties gains 20%+ and the other falls far behind because the electorate of the two parties is similar. In the past it has always been the SPD that has benefited from this, but perhaps this is the first time they have the worse candidate?
3
Germany Parliamentary Election Winner
mcpetrus
5 months ago
New Poll today says CDU/CSU 33%, AfD 19, SPD and greens 14
2
Greens win over 15% of vote in German election?
mcpetrus
5 months ago
But they are the only ones who have not lost the electorate in the government, while the SPD is 10 percent and the FDP is 8 percent lower than in 2021.
0
CarButBetter
5 months ago
The green party is in shambles. If you are not german or otherwise knowledgable on german politics, I'd stay out of this one.
CDU/CSU % of vote in German Election?
mcpetrus
5 months ago
Polls show them between 30 and 37%. A big difference. But it is the first election campaign for their boss Friederich Merz. It is his great advantage and disadvantage at the same time that he has never been in a government. A lot is therefore possible. Personally I expect between 27 and 33% for them.
3
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mcpetrus
5 months ago
The topic of migration is in second place among the most important topics, far behind the economy. But at 20-25%, this figure for migration is not very high. In 2017 this was well over 50%. And when it comes to the economy, even its own supporters have little confidence in the party. That's a big difference from Trump.
2
Dolphing
5 months ago
Current polls have them at 17-19%. I doubt that will increase as a large portion of that are single-issue voters on migration (on which all the other parties have already moved right) or Ukraine (ceiling of that was seen in eastern state elections). Those voters can be lured by other parties. Trump inauguration could do all kinds of things. Some portion of fanatics will stay no matter what (as seen from other commenters here). Slim chance they lose 4-5% because of procedural errors in NRW.
Which Parties will be part of next German Government?
mcpetrus
5 months ago
Maybe they think it's about getting into the Bundestag and not getting into the government.
0
Bratanapfel
5 months ago
How the hell is FDP at 12% ??
Which Parties will be part of next German Government?
mcpetrus
5 months ago
CDU/CSU 100%, SPD 90%, Greens 10%, other 0%
0
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mcpetrus
5 months ago
to what extent is 25-30 possible? there has never been a poll that saw them higher than 23.
1
SecteurBO
5 months ago
Probably only 3 options that are possible, 15-20, 20-25 and 25-30. I believe it's gonna be just over 20(21-22)
AfD % of vote in German Election?
mcpetrus
5 months ago
Very difficult. They are often underestimated in surveys, but sometimes overestimated, especially in online surveys. In the European elections in June, YouGov had it at 20%, the other institutes at 14-16%. In the end it was 15.9%. I think it also depends on how the election campaign of CDU leader Merz, who could probably be the only one who could still attract a few AfD voters, will go. In my opinion, anything between 13 and 23% seems possible, but the most likely figure is 16-18%.
0
Germany Parliamentary Election Winner
mcpetrus
5 months ago
Because not a single Poll shows them. so they are less than 3%
4
ambajorat
5 months ago
Volt is missing
Greens win over 15% of vote in German election?
mcpetrus
5 months ago
I think they will either be in the single digits or around 20%. This has to do with the SPD and the similar voter base of both parties.
1
SPD % of vote in German Election?
mcpetrus
5 months ago
They mostly benefit from people who vote for the Greens in polls but who find the Greens too scary shortly before the election. In this election there is also the CDU candidate who is the most polarizing and pro-economy candidate in decades. This could also help the SPD with voters who are 65 years old or older. Which is 40% of all eligible voters.
0
Dolphing
5 months ago
They typically trend up from early polls towards the election from big social policy promises, so most likely 15-20%. German reaction to Trump 2 is still a wild card.
Next Chancellor of Germany?
mcpetrus
5 months ago
imo: Merz: 65%, Scholz 20%, other from CDU/CSU 12%, other 3%
0
mcpetrus
5 months ago
The market could be more exciting than it seems at the moment. The CDU/CSU only have to lose ~3% each to the AfD and SPD. The SPD also wins in the final spurt (as always) from the Greens and the SPD is ahead of the CDU with ~25% and Scholz can claim to be Chancellor again become. Admittedly not very likely but possible. There is also the possibility that no one will want to join the government under Merz. Merz only has the options of SPD or Greens. You never know what will happen during the election campaign.
Next Chancellor of Germany?
mcpetrus
5 months ago
The market could be more exciting than it seems at the moment. The CDU/CSU only have to lose ~3% each to the AfD and SPD. The SPD also wins in the final spurt (as always) from the Greens and the SPD is ahead of the CDU with ~25% and Scholz can claim to be Chancellor again become. Admittedly not very likely but possible. There is also the possibility that no one will want to join the government under Merz. Merz only has the options of SPD or Greens. You never know what will happen during the election campaign.
1
Germany Parliamentary Election Winner
mcpetrus
5 months ago
The situation in Germany is more unexplored than it has been since the founding of the state in 1949. The CDU/CSU have been miles ahead for a long time but they have a disastrous old-school conservative candidate who some call "Fotzenfritz" and will have a few slip-ups in the 70 days until the election. In second place is the fascist AfD, which is too far to the right even for Marine Le Pen and other European right-wingers. You have a lesbian candidate who is married to a black migrant. Behind them comes the SPD, founded in the 19th century, with the failed Chancellor Olaf Scholz, whose popularity ratings are currently similar to those of Trump in the District of Columbia. Then there is the fourth fairly “large” party, the Greens, which are considered the center of German “wokism”. But they have also made a stark change from being an anti-war party in the 1980s to being the strongest supporters of arms sales to Ukraine. But if you look at it realistically, a miracle would have to happen for the CDU/CSU not to come in first place. Despite the unpopular candidate.
7
Poland Presidential Election
mcpetrus
5 months ago
Yes, it's always good when right-wing extremists make the realists rich with their false hopes. keep it up.
0
tehflame
5 months ago
i dont know any of them but ChatGPT told me that Nawrocki is the most right wing - so i pick him
Will Trump get over 50% of the Popular Vote?
mcpetrus
6 months ago
50.02 Atlas. Will drop under 50.00 today's evening
0
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
mcpetrus
6 months ago
Missing ballots ~4,107,000 ----- Calculated votes in total: 154,671,870 ----- turnout 62 - 64 %.
0
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
mcpetrus
6 months ago
1.83
0
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
mcpetrus
6 months ago
Estimation of missing votes: CA: 2732k - H 1694k Trump 956k o: 82k OR: 230k - H 156k Trump 67k o: 7k NJ: 206k - H 112k Trump 90k o: 4k WA: 184k - H 120k Trump 58.5k o: 5.5k MD: 165k - H 130k Trump 31k o: 4k NY: 156k - H 102k Trump 54k UT: 136k - H 62.5k Trump 71k o: 3.5k AZ: 98k - H 54k Trump 43k o: 1k CO: 94k - H 62k Trump 29.5k o: 2.5k AK: 48k - H 21.8k Trump 25k o: 2k DC: 22k - H 20.3k Trump 1.5k o: 0.2k NV: 14k - H 7.7k Trump 6k o: 0.3k MS: 12k - H 4.4k Trump 7.5k o: 0.1k NE: 10k - H 4.6k Trump 5.3k o: 0.1k
0
mcpetrus
6 months ago
Missing ballots ~4,107,000 ----- Calculated final result: GOP +1.31 ----- Detail: GOP 76,937,724 ((( 49.74 % ))) ----- DEM 74,901,640 ((( 48.43 % ))) ----- Other 2,832,506 ((( 1.83 % ))) ----- 154,671,870 votes in total - turnout 62 - 64 %.
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
mcpetrus
6 months ago
Missing ballots ~4,107,000 ----- Calculated final result: GOP +1.31 ----- Detail: GOP 76,937,724 ((( 49.74 % ))) ----- DEM 74,901,640 ((( 48.43 % ))) ----- Other 2,832,506 ((( 1.83 % ))) ----- 154,671,870 votes in total - turnout 62 - 64 %.
3
Will Trump get over 50% of the Popular Vote?
mcpetrus
6 months ago
49.74 at my today's calculation (+0.03 to Yesterday)
1
Will Trump get over 50% of the Popular Vote?
mcpetrus
6 months ago
Trump 49.71 at my calculation
0
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
mcpetrus
6 months ago
Estimation of missing votes: CA: 3014k - H 1888k Trump 1034.5k o: 90.5k MD: 328k - H 242k Trump 78k o: 8k OR: 250k - H 160k Trump 82.5k o: 7.5k WA: 250k - H 171k Trump 71.5k o: 7.5k NJ: 206k - H 120k Trump 83k o: 3k UT: 173k - H 70k Trump 98.5k o: 4.5k NY: 156k - H 102k Trump 54k AZ: 130k - H 66.5k Trump 62k o: 1.5k CO: 94k - H 63.5k Trump 28k o: 2.5k IL: 54k - H 39k Trump 14.3k o: 0.7k AK: 48k - H 21k Trump 25.8k o: 2k NV: 28k - H 15k Trump 12.5k o: 0.5k DC: 22k - H 18.8k Trump 3k o: 0.2k CT: 20k - H 8.8k Trump 11.0k o: 0.2k MS: 12k - H 4.4k Trump 7.5k o: 0.1k NE: 10k - H 4.6k Trump 5.3k o: 0.1k
1
mcpetrus
6 months ago
Missing ballots ~4,795,000 ----- Calculated final result: GOP +1.24 ----- Detail: GOP 76,782,905 ((( 49.71 % ))) ----- DEM 74,810,862 ((( 48.47 % ))) ----- Other 2,759,006 ((( 1.82 % ))) ----- 154,352,773 votes in total - turnout 62 - 64 %.
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
mcpetrus
6 months ago
Missing ballots ~4,795,000 ----- Calculated final result: GOP +1.24 ----- Detail: GOP 76,782,905 ((( 49.71 % ))) ----- DEM 74,810,862 ((( 48.47 % ))) ----- Other 2,759,006 ((( 1.82 % ))) ----- 154,352,773 votes in total - turnout 62 - 64 %.
1
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
mcpetrus
6 months ago
Missing ballots ~4,795,000 ----- Calculated votes in total: 154,352,773 ----- turnout 62 - 64 %.
0
Will Trump get over 50% of the Popular Vote?
mcpetrus
6 months ago
I don't see how Trump can get over 50%. it is currently 50.27 and today he has lost 0.01 to 0.02 after each update... but there are still millions of votes missing from California. 90% of the time it will reach between 49.75 and 49.95. I think the chance of 50.00 or more is less than 5%. In my opinion no is easy money
0
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
mcpetrus
6 months ago
Estimation of missing votes: CA: 3353k - H 2078k Trump 1178k o: 97k MD: 350k - H 256k Trump 86k o: 8k OR: 250k - H 160k Trump 82.5k o: 7.5k WA: 250k - H 171k Trump 71.5k o: 7.5k AZ: 220k - H 112k Trump 105.8k o: 2.2k NJ: 206k - H 120k Trump 83k o: 3k UT: 173k - H 70k Trump 98.5k o: 4.5k NY: 156k - H 102k Trump 54k CO: 156k - H 100.2k Trump 53k o: 2.8k AK: 56k - H 24.2k Trump 29.6k o: 2.2k IL: 54k - H 39k Trump 14.3k o: 0.7k NV: 43k - H 22.6k Trump 19.6k o: 0.8k CT: 20k - H 8.8k Trump 11.0k o: 0.2k DC: 18k - H 16.3k Trump 1.5k o: 0.2k MS: 12k - H 4.4k Trump 7.5k o: 0.1k NE: 9k - H 4.6k Trump 4.3k o: 0.1k ME: 8k - H 4.2k Trump 3.6k o: 0.2k NH: 8k - H 4.5k Trump 3.4k o: 0.1k
1
mcpetrus
6 months ago
Missing ballots ~5,342,000 ----- Calculated final result: GOP +1.40 ----- Detail: GOP 76,739,789 ((( 49.81 % ))) ----- DEM 74,536,570 ((( 48.41 % ))) ----- Other 2,692,719 ((( 1.78 % ))) ----- 153,969,078 votes in total turnout: 61.5 to 63.5 % %.
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
mcpetrus
6 months ago
Missing ballots ~5,342,000 ----- Calculated final result: GOP +1.40 ----- Detail: GOP 76,739,789 ((( 49.81 % ))) ----- DEM 74,536,570 ((( 48.41 % ))) ----- Other 2,692,719 ((( 1.78 % ))) ----- 153,969,078 votes in total turnout: 61.5 to 63.5 % %.
2
Popular Vote Margin of Victory?
mcpetrus
6 months ago
https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G24/President-Details.phtml
0
Emm8002022
6 months ago
94% of the votes had been counted and its still 2.62%, you guys really think it will dip beneath the 2% in the remaining 6% of the count https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/results/president
Popular Vote Margin of Victory?
mcpetrus
6 months ago
whole list of missing vote calculations: CA: 3353k - H 2078k Trump 1178k o: 97k MD: 350k - H 256k Trump 86k o: 8k OR: 250k - H 160k Trump 82.5k o: 7.5k WA: 250k - H 171k Trump 71.5k o: 7.5k AZ: 220k - H 112k Trump 105.8k o: 2.2k NJ: 206k - H 120k Trump 83k o: 3k UT: 173k - H 70k Trump 98.5k o: 4.5k NY: 156k - H 102k Trump 54k CO: 156k - H 100.2k Trump 53k o: 2.8k AK: 56k - H 24.2k Trump 29.6k o: 2.2k IL: 54k - H 39k Trump 14.3k o: 0.7k NV: 43k - H 22.6k Trump 19.6k o: 0.8k CT: 20k - H 8.8k Trump 11.0k o: 0.2k DC: 18k - H 16.3k Trump 1.5k o: 0.2k MS: 12k - H 4.4k Trump 7.5k o: 0.1k NE: 9k - H 4.6k Trump 4.3k o: 0.1k ME: 8k - H 4.2k Trump 3.6k o: 0.2k NH: 8k - H 4.5k Trump 3.4k o: 0.1k
1
mcpetrus
6 months ago
Missing ballots ~5,342,000 ----- Calculated final result: GOP +1.40 ----- Detail: GOP 76,739,789 ((( 49.81 % ))) ----- DEM 74,536,570 ((( 48.41 % ))) ----- Other 2,692,719 ((( 1.78 % )))
Popular Vote Margin of Victory?
mcpetrus
6 months ago
Missing ballots ~5,342,000 ----- Calculated final result: GOP +1.40 ----- Detail: GOP 76,739,789 ((( 49.81 % ))) ----- DEM 74,536,570 ((( 48.41 % ))) ----- Other 2,692,719 ((( 1.78 % )))
1
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
mcpetrus
6 months ago
Missing ballots ~5,342,000 ----- Calculated votes in total: 153,969,078 ----- turnout: 61.5 to 63.5 %. Full data: Estimation of missing votes: CA: 3353k - H 2078k Trump 1178k o: 97k MD: 350k - H 256k Trump 86k o: 8k OR: 250k - H 160k Trump 82.5k o: 7.5k WA: 250k - H 171k Trump 71.5k o: 7.5k AZ: 220k - H 112k Trump 105.8k o: 2.2k NJ: 206k - H 120k Trump 83k o: 3k UT: 173k - H 70k Trump 98.5k o: 4.5k NY: 156k - H 102k Trump 54k CO: 156k - H 100.2k Trump 53k o: 2.8k AK: 56k - H 24.2k Trump 29.6k o: 2.2k IL: 54k - H 39k Trump 14.3k o: 0.7k NV: 43k - H 22.6k Trump 19.6k o: 0.8k CT: 20k - H 8.8k Trump 11.0k o: 0.2k DC: 18k - H 16.3k Trump 1.5k o: 0.2k MS: 12k - H 4.4k Trump 7.5k o: 0.1k NE: 9k - H 4.6k Trump 4.3k o: 0.1k ME: 8k - H 4.2k Trump 3.6k o: 0.2k NH: 8k - H 4.5k Trump 3.4k o: 0.1k
0
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
mcpetrus
6 months ago
Missing ballots ~5,342,000 ----- Calculated votes in total: 153,969,078 ----- turnout: 61.5 to 63.5 %. The value is subject to a range of uncertainties. A value of more than 156 million votes is definitely out of the question.
0
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
mcpetrus
6 months ago
My today's calculation with approximately 6,192,000 ballots still missing: 154,133,000 votes at the end, turnout 62.72%
2
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
mcpetrus
6 months ago
Today's calculation with approximately 6,192,000 ballots still missing: ---GOP +1.43 --- Trump 76,966,000 (((49.93%))) --- Harris 74,750,000 (((48.50%))) --- Other 2,414,000 (((1.57 %))) --- Turnout: 62.72%
0
Popular Vote Margin of Victory?
mcpetrus
6 months ago
In Torrington, 98% of the votes are still missing due to technical problems. It's only about ~15k correct but when you calculate you should include everything. In any case, I'm not the one who "has to check my data".
0
joewarida.
6 months ago
My math says gop 2.3%
Popular Vote Margin of Victory?
mcpetrus
6 months ago
never. Los Angeles alone will push it to 2.3 or lower. And there are still hundreds of thousands of votes in 75-25 blue counties, Seattle, Portland... according to my calculations Trump is only in Utah, Connecticut and alaska slightly ahead of Harris when it comes to the missing votes.
0
joewarida.
6 months ago
My math says gop 2.3%
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
mcpetrus
6 months ago
My Prediction rn Gop +1.52
1
mcpetrus
6 months ago
Estimation of missing votes: CA: 4,270k votes - Harris 2.520k to Trump 1.750k AZ: 535k votes - Harris 280k to Trump 255k MD: 400k votes - Harris 300k to Trump 100k WA: 345k votes - Harris 225k to Trump 120k OR: 300k votes - Harris 210k to Trump 90k NJ: 250k votes - Harris 160k to Trump 90k UT: 250k votes - Harris 115k to Trump 135k CO: 180k votes - Harris 115k to Trump 65k NY: 130k votes - Harris 90k to Trump 40k PA: 130k votes - Harris 75k to Trump 55k 8 other States with missing votes combined: 275k votes - Harris 168k to Trump 107k
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
mcpetrus
6 months ago
Estimation of missing votes: CA: 4,270k votes - Harris 2.520k to Trump 1.750k AZ: 535k votes - Harris 280k to Trump 255k MD: 400k votes - Harris 300k to Trump 100k WA: 345k votes - Harris 225k to Trump 120k OR: 300k votes - Harris 210k to Trump 90k NJ: 250k votes - Harris 160k to Trump 90k UT: 250k votes - Harris 115k to Trump 135k CO: 180k votes - Harris 115k to Trump 65k NY: 130k votes - Harris 90k to Trump 40k PA: 130k votes - Harris 75k to Trump 55k 8 other States with missing votes combined: 275k votes - Harris 168k to Trump 107k
1
Popular Vote Margin of Victory?
mcpetrus
6 months ago
I use the data from AP and look at how many votes are still missing and in which counties. To do this, I check whether there is information about whether the missing votes are postal votes, for example. It's partly speculation but I always assumed the most likely case. I think GOP +1.3 to 1.7 is very likely but there is a remaining chance for both GOP 0-1 and GOP 2-3.
1
mcpetrus
6 months ago
Missing votes: ~7,065,000 ----- Calculated final result: Trump 76,931,562 (((50.02%))) --- Harris 74,593,302 (((48,50))) --- other 2,772,875 (((1.48)))
Popular Vote Margin of Victory?
mcpetrus
6 months ago
Missing votes: ~7,065,000 ----- Calculated final result: Trump 76,931,562 (((50.02%))) --- Harris 74,593,302 (((48,50))) --- other 2,772,875 (((1.48)))
1
Popular Vote Margin of Victory?
mcpetrus
6 months ago
Guess Gop will come out at +1.2 to 1.5. Gop 0-1% is unlikely but still within the realm of possibility. California is still missing 42% of the votes, especially from the big cities. Except Utah and Alaska, the other states from which 10 or more percent of the votes are still missing are also blue.
3
Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?
mcpetrus
6 months ago
He has to end it on day 1 otherwise he would have broken his first election promise. Probably a world record.
0