What will Trump say during Reading, Pennsylvania rally? (7 PM ET)

n/a

3 days ago

That's what we call insider trading my friend

0

n/a

3 days ago

Imagine Trump will also vote in this vote from an anonymous account

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

just give it up little guy

0

HsB34sgg

1 week ago

The world's premiere foreign affairs journal has called it an INVASION! "Yesterday, it took the next step—a ground invasion into Lebanon that unleashed a full-scale assault on Hezbollah—all while facing new direct retaliation from Iran, with nearly 200 ballistic missiles launched at Israel this week." https://www.foreignaffairs.com/israel/where-will-israels-multifront-war-end

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

it's been real

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

well well well

0

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

lmaooo whales exiting very slowly, don't want to cause a panic

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

Coming directly from Israel themselves, what else do "Yes" holders need to hear?

3

druckenmiller

1 week ago

An Israeli security official told reporters on condition of anonymity Tuesday morning that the operation does not amount to an invasion or incursion, describing it instead as “localized raids” that are “very limited in scope and in the area of operation.” https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/01/middleeast/israel-ground-incursion-lebanon-explainer-intl-hnk/index.html

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

n/a

1 week ago

CNN, the most liberal news network in the world is bashing Walz and siding with Vance.

11

·

Liked by , ArtVandala... and 11 others

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

n/a

1 week ago

freeeee fallinggggg

0

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

n/a

1 week ago

Beautiful

0

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

n/a

1 week ago

Tim nodding his head in agreement with everything Vance is saying. I guess he's a moderate now?

3

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

n/a

1 week ago

​​Vance has never laughed at Walz, never looked angry, never been mean. He has only ever shown his professionalism and that he is more than prepared to be the vice president. He is clearly the winner tonight.

3

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

n/a

1 week ago

Walz lied about china, lied about border crossings, said he is friends with school shooters. Yeah he'll definitely win in the polls

13

·

Liked by n/a, n/a and 11 others

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

n/a

1 week ago

Border crossings are down??? Have you seen the famous fucking chart?????

6

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

n/a

1 week ago

Vance is so presidential, where as with Walz...

7

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

n/a

1 week ago

Tim and his school shooter friends, LOL. Buy Vance while you can.

1

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

n/a

1 week ago

Friends with what???

1

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

n/a

1 week ago

We have gone through all liberal talking points excluding healthcare so far and Walz is trailing at 50c.

1

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

n/a

1 week ago

Most liberal talking points have been already discussed, Vance will now make the final blow with the questions that are about to be asked.

1

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

n/a

1 week ago

Liberals already accepting the defeat on Twitter

4

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

n/a

1 week ago

IN THE NINTH MONTH???

0

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

n/a

1 week ago

awkward...

0

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

n/a

1 week ago

Uhh governor you lied

1

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

n/a

1 week ago

I thought there was no fact checking???

3

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

n/a

1 week ago

Vance is fucking smoking this dude

3

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

n/a

1 week ago

Walz is so nervous lmao

4

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

Daniel Hagari said "You say incursions. I say raids." in his press briefing earlier this morning.

0

n/a

1 week ago

Largest incursion into their territory in TWO DECADES, and multiple tanks have crossed the border along with actual ground troops. This is clearly not the type of special ops the rules are intended to exclude.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

The IDF spokesperson literally made it a point in his press briefing that these were "raids" and not "incursions".

0

n/a

1 week ago

Largest incursion into their territory in TWO DECADES, and multiple tanks have crossed the border along with actual ground troops. This is clearly not the type of special ops the rules are intended to exclude.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

"Yes" is losing confidence.

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

UMA whales, calm, diamond hands "No" holders or angry, desperate, whining "Yes" holders. Which way western man?

2

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

I would seriously be reconsidering my "Yes" position if I was on the same side as @HsB34sgg

4

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

You're going through what I call the five stages of grief my friend. You are in the "denial" stage.

5

HsB34sgg

1 week ago

Both the entire Israeli cabinet, and the US State Department have openly declared support for this initiative. Israel has already commenced a military offensive, with the expressed goal of restoring UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which obligated Hezbollah to remain north of the Litani River. This offensive military operation is now happening to establish control over southern Lebanon.

Iran military response before October?

n/a

1 week ago

gg

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

https://x.com/AlMayadeenLive/status/1840967407671631955 "Lebanon: Al-Mayadeen correspondent in the south: There is no confirmation from any field source that the Israeli occupation forces entered on the ground and penetrated the Lebanese border."

7

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

BREAKING: HaterzLoserz has completey exited his position.

2

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

Here comes the free fall.

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

It's trading at 77c, does this seem like a market thats confident that an Israeli invasion has occured? You guys have 10 minutes.

1

Ukraine strike on Moscow by September 30?

n/a

1 week ago

At least I won here. 😪

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

Let's dispute here guys cmon

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

The main resolution source is official confirmation by Lebanon, Israel, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council but its okay guys none of that matters because we can just bail ourselves out with a cOnSeNsUs oF cReDiBlE rEpOrTiNg.

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

Consensus of credible reporting always comes to the rescue!

1

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

Exactly, it is ridiculous. The funny thing is, that same exact news was mentioned by a different publication a day ago and nobody said a word now just because WSJ ran with it this pumps to "Yes".

0

n/a

1 week ago

People that have voted yes is because they think the probing done today means its a certain win for them yet it was happening when this bet was created and months before yet this bet still goes unresolved. They havent done anytype of different raid from when this was created till now. Lool 0 Reply

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

freeeeee fallingggggggg

3

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

lol thanks for confirming

0

n/a

1 week ago

No bros in shambles https://x.com/Jerusalem_Post/status/1840851183654568138

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

You probably look like the nasty faggot loser in your profile picture the way you're speaking to me 😂

0

n/a

1 week ago

No bros in shambles https://x.com/Jerusalem_Post/status/1840851183654568138

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

You have nothing more to say 🤣

0

n/a

1 week ago

No bros in shambles https://x.com/Jerusalem_Post/status/1840851183654568138

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

"The IDF has yet to announce or confirm that any such ground invasion, the first IDF ground operation in Lebanon since the Second Lebanon War in 2006, has been launched."

2

n/a

1 week ago

No bros in shambles https://x.com/Jerusalem_Post/status/1840851183654568138

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

You know you're cooked when you start citing wikipedia. Just sell your yes shares while you're up buddy.

1

abdendriel

1 week ago

At the strategic level, a phase continue for years. Not all phases of combat include fighting between armed forces. Phases can, and usually do overlap, and sometimes can be planned for parallel execution, often as part of deception planning. Phases typically found in offensive military operations are: Preparation Intelligence gathering phase[1] Operations planning phase Logistics management phase Deception and counterintelligence phase Assembly phase https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase_(combat)

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

Guys why do you think they added "Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count." in this new market they made. https://polymarket.com/event/will-israel-troops-enter-beirut-by-october-31 Because they want to make it clear that special ops gathering intelligence DOESN'T COUNT.

1

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

That's the million dollar question and if you ask ChatGPT, it says NO.

0

severian

1 week ago

Everything revolves around the nature of what 'combat operations' entails. The 'small-scale raids' were aimed at probing, gathering intelligence, identifying key Hezbollah posts, etc. So, reconaissance, intelligence. The question is if that falls under combat operations.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

"To collect information." "Probing." "Gathering intelligence." Does that sound like a combat operation to you?

1

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

For it to be resolved as “Yes,” Israeli military personnel need to physically enter Lebanese territory specifically for combat operation. Now, “combat operations” means more than just being present—it involves being there with an intent for combat, like setting up a position, advancing into enemy areas, preparing for a potential fight etc. Direct engagement isn’t necessarily required, but the intent must be combat-oriented.On the other hand, intelligence-gathering missions are different. If Israeli troops enter Lebanon purely for reconnaissance or covert information gathering, and there’s no combat objective, that wouldn’t count under the definition of “combat operations” for this market.

3

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

hahahaha

1

severian

1 week ago

In the midst of 'it's over', an indominable 'we're back' has been found

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

Only 8 hours left boys. 😁

2

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

כל הפעילות בגבול - הכנה לקראת הכניסה של כוחותינו לשטח לבנון. יש לציין כי בניגוד לדיווחים הזרים עדיין לא החל התמרון הקרקעי בלבנון. מדובר בפעילות מוגבלת והכנת השטח. פרטים נוספים בהמשך.

0

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

Polymarket knows they made a mistake with this market. They made a new similar market here https://polymarket.com/event/will-israel-troops-enter-beirut-by-october-31/will-israel-troops-enter-beirut-by-october-31?tid=1727720169724 and make it clear in the rules this time that "Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count." This market WILL. resolve to "No".

6

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

Just because a bunch of whales buy "Yes" doesn’t mean it’s true. When has something that’s been proposed last been trading at 90c? Whenever something is certain to resolve a particular way, it’s trading at 99c for "Yes" or "No" almost immediately. The fact that this isn’t the case here should tell you everything—there’s clearly a lot of uncertainty because the evidence doesn’t definitively support a "Yes" outcome. The market itself is uncertain, and that’s because the evidence is shaky at best.

5

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

Clear as day.

0

RBvKrsr7ZfRK

1 week ago

As of September 30, 2024, Israeli forces have not yet conducted a ground invasion into Lebanese territory, but preparations and intelligence-gathering operations are underway. Israeli special forces have carried out cross-border raids in southern Lebanon to gather intelligence on Hezbollah's tunnels and military infrastructure, which could precede a limited ground operation. Despite the mobilization of Israeli troops along the northern border and indications of readiness for a ground incursion, ***no ground combat operations have been reported***. The U.S. is monitoring the situation closely and has dispatched additional forces to the region to bolster air defense capabilities, particularly wary of potential retaliatory actions from Iran and its allies. Hezbollah has vowed to resist any ground invasion, and international efforts to broker a ceasefire have been unsuccessful thus far.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

These special forces agents carried out "intelligence-gathering" raids as stated by the New York Post. This is the "combat operations" you guys are speaking of? Sounds a lot more like they were trying to AVOID combat. On top of nothing that proves it was done between September 18 and September 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET?

1

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

https://www.timesofisrael.com/troops-said-to-enter-hezbollah-tunnels-with-pre-invasion-forays-into-lebanon/ “The report, which cited unnamed sources familiar with the matter, said the raids have taken place over the past months, as well as more recently, with troops ‘probing’ and gathering intelligence, as activity ramps up ahead of a possible ground offensive.” There is no way you’re telling me we’re gonna be resolving to “Yes” based off this? This entire report is built on vague claims from unnamed sources, talking about “probing” and “gathering intelligence”—there’s nothing here that confirms combat intent.

5

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

So again, we have "two sources familiar with the matter" speaking on condition of anonymity. This is exactly what I’ve been pointing out—vague, unnamed sources and no specific details. We don’t have anything definitive, like a timestamped report stating combat intent or direct action from a named official. "Recent days" is meaningless without context or verification. These raids are part of preparations for a potential ground offensive, not combat operations. It’s all speculation, and that’s not enough to justify a "Yes" resolution.

0

Will143

1 week ago

sraeli special forces have carried out small raids into Lebanese territory in recent days as part of preparations for a potential ground offensive, two sources familiar with the matter said. Israeli commandos infiltrated Lebanese territory, targeting Hezbollah positions near the border to gather intelligence and destroy Hezbollah posts in the area, the sources said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military matters.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

Even if you do want to state that these "raids" were "combat operations". There is absolutely no credible reporting that states they have happened between September 18 and September 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. There have only been vague claims. The Wall Street Journal reported that Israeli forces have carried out cross-border raids in Lebanon "recently, as well as over the past months". Extremely vague, is "recently" a week ago? Two weeks ago? A month ago? No names, no date, no time. You can't resolve a market to "Yes" based off claims like this.

12

·

Liked by Porcoddio, n/a and 10 others

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

Date and time? Oh wait…

0

abdendriel

1 week ago

The raids are confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

There really is nothing more to add. This is absolutely a “No”.

1

Porcoddio

1 week ago

"A military spokesperson said no ground operation had started and added that the Israel Defense Forces did not comment on special operations." So easy, like seriously.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

I guess if I fly over to China and start spying on CCP members, I am engaging in combat operations?

1

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

A consensus of reporting that these raids are part of a wider invasion still doesn’t mean there is combat intent. Being part of broader preparations or an upcoming invasion doesn’t automatically make these actions ‘combat operations.’ The market requires Israeli forces to be deployed specifically with the intent for combat—not just as part of a general plan or buildup. Until there’s clear evidence that these actions were done with the intent to engage in combat, the requirement for ‘combat operations’ is not met.

0

abdendriel

1 week ago

A consensus of reporting clearly state that the raids are part of a wider invasion.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

Yes, “combat operations” isn’t just “combat,” but the key here is that “combat” must still be an intended part of the operation. What we see here are raids focused on intelligence gathering, probing, and targeting infrastructure—there’s no clear intent for direct combat. The market requires Israeli forces to be deployed with the intent for combat, not just to collect information or disrupt infrastructure. Think about the Cold War: when the Americans and Soviets were spying on each other, was the intent for combat or simply gathering intelligence? It was clearly intelligence gathering, not combat. Similarly, these recent raids are about preparation and intel, not combat, therefore this should clearly resolve to “No.”

3

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

Every piece of evidence out there talks about intelligence gathering, probing, and targeting infrastructure. These raids have been going on for months and are clearly part of a preparation strategy. There’s absolutely no credible source that mentions Israeli troops being deployed with the intent for direct combat. “Combat” literally means “fighting between armed forces”—not intelligence gathering or probing. The sources cited are vague and anonymous, lacking any named individuals or concrete intel with specific dates or times. It is clear as day that this must resolve to “No.”

2

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

Reasoning?

0

BobMenendez

1 week ago

I sold a yes position and now hold a tiny No position. Still think this market should resolve to Yes.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

By definition, “combat” literally means “fighting between armed forces.” It’s about actual confrontation—direct engagement where armed forces are actively fighting each other. This is why the market’s requirement of combat operations is so significant. For these raids to qualify, the intent should clearly be to engage in fighting, not just to gather information or conduct reconnaissance. The operations described in the reports focus on intelligence gathering, targeting infrastructure, and probing, which do not align with the definition of combat. There’s no evidence that these incursions were intended as a fight between Israeli forces and Hezbollah, just actions aimed at weakening capabilities and collecting data. Without proof of an intent to engage in direct armed confrontation, there’s simply no basis for calling these actions combat operations. The rules clearly require this distinction, and without it, a “Yes” resolution is completely unsupported.

3

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

There’s no verified report of Israeli forces being deployed with the specific intent to neutralize threats or capture high-value targets in combat situations. Until there’s clear evidence of direct combat engagement, this market cannot justifiably resolve to “Yes”.

1

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

The literal definition of "Combat" is literally "Fighting between armed forces." I think that's all that needs to be said guys.

2

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

Reconnaissance by special forces is not “combat operations.” Recon missions are about gathering intelligence, avoiding detection, and minimizing direct conflict. Quite the opposite actually! Combat operations require a direct intent to engage the enemy in a fight, whereas reconnaissance is meant to avoid confrontation. The market rules specify combat operations.

2

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

While a combat operation may not always involve shooting, the market rules require evidence of Israeli troops entering Lebanese territory specifically for combat. The current evidence shows intelligence gathering and infrastructure targeting, not combat with enemy forces. Even if a combat operation can be broader, intent matters. If the actions were not undertaken with the intent to engage in combat, they do not meet the market’s definition.

3

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

You guided it to the answer you wanted buddy

1

Car

1 week ago

I just did: https://chatgpt.com/share/66faa6c9-c678-800a-97c0-46ad611ced89

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

Ask any AI you want they're gonna say it should resolve to "No".

3

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

Intent of operations: The reported Israeli incursions into Lebanon appear to be primarily focused on intelligence gathering, infrastructure targeting, and preparatory operations, rather than direct combat engagement as required by the market criteria. Lack of official confirmation: There is no official confirmation from Israel or Hezbollah regarding these operations, which is a key requirement for resolution according to the market rules. Ongoing nature of operations: The reported raids and intelligence gathering activities have been occurring for months, suggesting they are part of a prolonged campaign rather than a specific combat event within the specified timeframe. Credibility of sources: The reports rely heavily on anonymous sources and potentially biased reporting, without official verification from the parties involved Lack of clear combat evidence: There is no verifiable evidence of Israeli troops entering Lebanon specifically for combat operations as defined by the market criteria The reported activities do not meet the specific requirements outlined in the market criteria for combat operations. Therefore, based on the current evidence and the market's stated resolution criteria, the market should resolve to "No”.

9

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

Exactly, no time and date or anything.

0

JJJAY

1 week ago

“According to the report, such operations have been carried out in the past few months as well as more recently, as part of Israel's attempt at striking the terror group embedded on its border with Lebanon. ” There is no indication as to this”operation happened between 18th to 30th of September.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

Just use Polymarkets own Market Summary tool and it will give you the answer. If this resolves to "Yes" it is complete fraud.

1

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

Just ask ChatGPT yourself which way this market should resolve, that's all you need to know.

3

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

This market should not resolve to ‘Yes’ as the criteria clearly require Israeli personnel to enter Lebanese territory for combat operations. All available evidence points to intelligence gathering, infrastructure targeting, and preparatory actions, not direct combat. Not even INTENT for direct combat. No credible source has confirmed combat engagement, and the reports rely on vague, anonymous claims. Justice must be served by adhering strictly to the market’s stated rules.

3

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

Right

0

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

Ive sold so take it how you will, seems like this should resolve to yes to me personally. However, I just asked ChatGPT, and it said in the strictest sense it does not quality as combat operations. Now, fight over it in the comments please. "Sending special forces across an international border into another country to gather intelligence prior to an invasion typically does not fall under the definition of "combat operations" in the strictest military sense. However, it can depend on how the term "combat operations" is defined by the specific country or military organization." "

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

"The purpose of these operations was to glean information in preparation for a possible invasion." Clear as day not for "combat operations".

3

n/a

1 week ago

https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-822515

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

HatersLozers just sold his entire position, 50-Pence and aenews is next. GET OUT WHILE YOU CAN.

2

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

This market got manipulated to hell. 50-Pence, aenews and the rest of the whales will dump on all of you before this gets resolved. Don't say I didn't warn you.

1

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

Rules say "Only ground operations involving troops on Lebanese soil will count." Since you guys like to reference articles so much the headline of this one says it all https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-822290

3

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

I tried to warn them 🤣🤣🤣

1

shinigami.3

1 week ago

Rip yes holders https://m.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-822290

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

It would be a complete joke for this to resolve to "Yes".

2

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

Exactly

0

n/a

1 week ago

1) No confirmation from Israel. 2) No confirmation from Hez. 3) Vague media reports without clear Time/intention. How on earth would it resolve to Yes?

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

Using an Al Jazeera tweet quoting Hezbollah as evidence is questionable at best.

0

Justifax

1 week ago

wsj,herald,times are not 'random articles'. hezbollah, the primary resolution for this market, confirms timing - https://x.com/ajarabic/status/1840407001639301552?s=46

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

You guys use every bone in your body to find a random article to try and support your argument, even if it’s based on anonymous sources or vague claims. The reality is, anyone can twist an article to fit their narrative, but until there’s an official confirmation from Israel, it’s not convincing.

1

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

The Telegraph article cites an anonymous ‘Israeli official’ and an ‘Israeli intelligence source.’ Does that sound like a consensus of credible reporting to you? It also uses broad phrases like ‘targeting Hezbollah infrastructure’ and mentions ‘raids’ ahead of a broader ground invasion, but nothing about direct combat operations. If this really were the case, why hasn’t Israel come out and announced an official statement? Anyone can take an article and interpret it their own way, but an official confirmation from Israel is something I’d be completely fine losing this market on.

1

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

The rules explicitly state that the market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli personnel enter Lebanese territory for combat operations. The intent behind these actions matters significantly—if the primary purpose is intelligence gathering or probing, then it doesn’t qualify as a combat operation under the market’s criteria. For those who think intelligence gathering counts as combat operations: the rules are pretty clear. Entering enemy territory just to gather intel or probe isn’t the same as entering for combat. If you’re counting every covert raid as combat, then by that logic, every recon mission would also be a battle, which it clearly isn’t.

11

·

Liked by n/a, NotJustKen and 9 others

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

If that was the case this market would have shot up to "Yes" as soon as it was posted. Israeli military and intelligence have been aware of and working to address the threat posed by these tunnels for years.

2

abdendriel

1 week ago

“ The basic model of the combat operations area process includes five phases[1] that seek to acquire targets and objectives, allocate and orient appropriate forces for successful engagement of the enemy…” https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combat_operations_process

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

Nothing here indicates “combat operations.” The article talks about small, targeted raids for gathering intelligence and probing. These raids, which include entering tunnels, have been happening for MONTHS, by the way, and are all about degrading Hezbollah’s capabilities through intel collection. The PRIMARY intent here is intelligence, not direct combat like the rules state. For a “Yes” resolution, we need credible reports that Israeli forces entered Lebanon specifically for combat, and that hasn’t been reported.

9

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

The article makes it clear that these "raids" are part of intelligence gathering and probing ahead of a broader potential ground incursion. Again, it is not focused on direct combat like the rules state.

0

Justifax

1 week ago

The headline says 'raids'.. Raids are combat operations. Obviously if it was a bigger deal, it would be invasion.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

n/a

1 week ago

The article mentions “small operations” and “sensitive intelligence missions,” which doesn't qualify as full combat operations. These "missions" sound a lot more covert and intended for intelligence gathering rather than direct combat like the rules mention.

3

Ukraine strike on Moscow by September 30?

n/a

1 week ago

yes

0

n/a

1 week ago

Is it just me or does that order book look weird to anyone else?

CFB: Miami vs. Virginia Tech

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1 week ago

LFGGGGGGG CRAZY GAME

0

CFB: Miami vs. Virginia Tech

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1 week ago

This is crazy

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WNBA: Sun vs. Fever Game 2

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2 weeks ago

you don't want to know

0

Bink

2 weeks ago

Gm gents, what tf did I just wager on

Iran military response before October?

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2 weeks ago

Absolutely nothing will happen https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=beqyAREOX8Y&ab_channel=NBCNews

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What will Trump say during Georgia speech?

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2 weeks ago

The last thing he'll be saying in a speech about tax code and US manufacturing is "Tampon". 🤣

1

What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?

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2 weeks ago

you're pnl is so much more impressive!

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MalayGoldFarmer

2 weeks ago

Looking at your PnL, i think most of the time, people are thanking you instead.

What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?

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2 weeks ago

would like to thank the crypto bros in advance❤️

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UFC 306: O'Malley vs. Dvalishvili

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3 weeks ago

omalley didn't give a fuc😂

1

NFL Thursday

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3 weeks ago

yikes

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