#82
Rank
266
Comments
128
Likes Received
51
Likes Given
$TRUMP FDV at noon on inauguration day?
Sardinianshepherd
6 days ago
for sure is going to pump it in the during innagurational speech https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-mention-his-memecoin-in-inaugural-adress/will-trump-mention-his-memecoin-in-inaugural-adress?tid=1737293932394
0
Trump mentions his memecoin in inaugural address?
Sardinianshepherd
6 days ago
if he says Trump it counts, no?
4
Top AI model on December 31?
Sardinianshepherd
1 month ago
@TheGuro can you add me on discord?
0
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
Sardinianshepherd
2 months ago
W/I
0
Clenc
2 months ago
How is it possible that NBC has more than 153 million votes counted including 2.7 million for the other parties and that the atlas site has less than 153 million votes counted and 2.9 million votes for the other parties? https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/president-results#results
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
Sardinianshepherd
2 months ago
i mean UFL is projecting lower actuals count in some states e.g., NJ and IL, would argue the the most procise is actually ED numbers that are projecting votes in presidential election and current actual are matching the atlas
0
rabs
2 months ago
OK I've bought enough shares my risk appetite is exceeded, so I'm happy to share my analysis now. Basically the main thing to understand is that the UFL Elect Project numbers are currently tracking 'ballots cast' which is not what this market is about. This market is about 'votes for President', which is what the resolution source (USElectionAtlas) tracks. Something like 0.8% of all ballots cast do not include a vote for President. So if you think the Elect Project numbers are mostly accurate, which I do, you end up getting around 0.992 * 155,800,000 or 154.6M votes, which is funnily enough very close to what I estimate. I think this confusion between 'ballots' and 'votes for President' is the main reason this market has been so mispriced and there's been so much confusion in the comment section. If anyone has mistakenly bought YES on 155-160M based on this misapprehension, it's probably a good idea to sell now before other people realise it too. Happy hunting! :)
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
Sardinianshepherd
2 months ago
AP is little lower as not account for W/I
0
redone
2 months ago
Rabs, NEP is still projecting 155+ votes for president, not ballots.
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
Sardinianshepherd
2 months ago
Same for Oklahoma South Dakota New Hampshire South Carolina Delaware Vermont, the state they projecting done with the count, their estimate number match the source
0
redone
2 months ago
Rabs, NEP is still projecting 155+ votes for president, not ballots.
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
Sardinianshepherd
2 months ago
Is not Emerson Research using NEP numbers? if that the case I see estimate for SC of 2'548'140 that is the exact number of votes for the president vs 2,566,404, ballots cast: https://www.enr-scvotes.org/SC/122436/web.345435/#/summary they are forecasting the SC has done 100% of the voting
0
redone
2 months ago
Rabs, NEP is still projecting 155+ votes for president, not ballots.
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
Sardinianshepherd
2 months ago
Hey Rabs next time can you hire as your quant? i can do a better job
1
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
Sardinianshepherd
2 months ago
Yes side is a bit overpriced but not that lock that people think, probably 0.25 is the correct price, it really depent on the total tournout, if above 156 it could happen
1
ernestofunesto
2 months ago
buying no at 65 it's like "rubare in chiesa"
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
Sardinianshepherd
2 months ago
They are in the the edison research estimates
0
Danilo3400
2 months ago
A number that probably almost no one has calculated in are the apparent 220k Outstanding Absentee & Provisional Ballots in Ohio https://liveresults.ohiosos.gov/
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
Sardinianshepherd
2 months ago
Estimate update, no much changes vs yestarday, but an healty milion of new votes counted: AP: 155.7M (+0M vs yesterday) Edison Research: 156.1M (+0M vs yesterday) Election Lab: 155.8M (+0.3M vs yesterday) Actuals: 153M (+0.9 vs yesterday) https://x.com/River_Whales/status/1857756801413877825
3
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
Sardinianshepherd
2 months ago
AP is 155.7 even with tme missing votes
1
wdbr
2 months ago
So I have: AP - 155.3M (down 0.5M); Edison Research - 156.1M (down 1M); Election Lab - up to 155.6 (up 0.1M); JMC still at 153.9M; Nate Silver - latest is 155.3
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
Sardinianshepherd
2 months ago
AP is 155.7M and ED 156.7
1
wdbr
2 months ago
So I have: AP - 155.3M (down 0.5M); Edison Research - 156.1M (down 1M); Election Lab - up to 155.6 (up 0.1M); JMC still at 153.9M; Nate Silver - latest is 155.3
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
Sardinianshepherd
2 months ago
Boys are we back?
6
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
Sardinianshepherd
2 months ago
Election lab estimates are lower than actuals in Illinois, New Jersay and Virginia.
0
Sardinianshepherd
2 months ago
New estimates update: AP: 155.7M (-0.1M vs YDA) Edison Research: 156.1M (-1M vs YDA) Election lab: 155.5M (0M vs YDA) : https://x.com/River_Whales/status/1857365726933266726
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
Sardinianshepherd
2 months ago
Alos Edison research estimate are lower than the report for unprocessed ballot in California
0
Sardinianshepherd
2 months ago
New estimates update: AP: 155.7M (-0.1M vs YDA) Edison Research: 156.1M (-1M vs YDA) Election lab: 155.5M (0M vs YDA) : https://x.com/River_Whales/status/1857365726933266726
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
Sardinianshepherd
2 months ago
if there is no change not my fault
0
Sardinianshepherd
2 months ago
New estimates update: AP: 155.7M (-0.1M vs YDA) Edison Research: 156.1M (-1M vs YDA) Election lab: 155.5M (0M vs YDA) : https://x.com/River_Whales/status/1857365726933266726
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
Sardinianshepherd
2 months ago
they are the estimate as fo 2 minute ago, AP and ED update more than once at day
0
Sardinianshepherd
2 months ago
New estimates update: AP: 155.7M (-0.1M vs YDA) Edison Research: 156.1M (-1M vs YDA) Election lab: 155.5M (0M vs YDA) : https://x.com/River_Whales/status/1857365726933266726
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
Sardinianshepherd
2 months ago
Please not that AP estimate and bihind actuals in Virginia, Vermont and Wyoming as they do not consider write-ins
0
Sardinianshepherd
2 months ago
New estimates update: AP: 155.7M (-0.1M vs YDA) Edison Research: 156.1M (-1M vs YDA) Election lab: 155.5M (0M vs YDA) : https://x.com/River_Whales/status/1857365726933266726
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
Sardinianshepherd
2 months ago
New estimates update: AP: 155.7M (-0.1M vs YDA) Edison Research: 156.1M (-1M vs YDA) Election lab: 155.5M (0M vs YDA) : https://x.com/River_Whales/status/1857365726933266726
0
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
Sardinianshepherd
2 months ago
write-ins
0
SOMON
2 months ago
Does anyone have any idea why Bloomberg gets more votes for candidates than other sites? IF it was a mistake, he should have corrected it already.
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
Sardinianshepherd
2 months ago
new update from the estimate: AP: 155.8M, edison research: 156.1M, Election lab: 155.5M
7
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
Sardinianshepherd
2 months ago
You're not the guy who dumped all the shares because you thought Rab worked for Emerson Research? You switch sides more often than Italians during a war
6
Sardinianshepherd
2 months ago
new update from the estimate: AP: 155.8M (-1M vs YDA) edison research: 157.1M (0M vs YDA) Election lab: 155.5M (+0.2M vs YDA) https://x.com/River_Whales/status/1857011273700880384
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
Sardinianshepherd
2 months ago
i missed on the discount sales :(
2
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
Sardinianshepherd
2 months ago
i'm not sure what are you saying
4
Sardinianshepherd
2 months ago
new update from the estimate: AP: 155.8M (-1M vs YDA) edison research: 157.1M (0M vs YDA) Election lab: 155.5M (+0.2M vs YDA) https://x.com/River_Whales/status/1857011273700880384
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
Sardinianshepherd
2 months ago
new update from the estimate: AP: 155.8M (-1M vs YDA) edison research: 157.1M (0M vs YDA) Election lab: 155.5M (+0.2M vs YDA) https://x.com/River_Whales/status/1857011273700880384
4
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
Sardinianshepherd
2 months ago
Gang, why are we going down now?
1
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
Sardinianshepherd
2 months ago
Utah casually added 100K today
0
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
Sardinianshepherd
2 months ago
AP: 156M with CA at 16.3M votes, Emerson research: 157M with CA at 15.9M votes
0
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
Sardinianshepherd
2 months ago
Edison Research has less than 16M in California but still 157.1M forecast
0
Sardinianshepherd
2 months ago
Forecast from this morning AP: 156.8M (-0.2M vs yestarday) Edison Research: 157.1M (-0.5M vs yestarday) ElectionLab: 155.4M (-0M vs yestarday): https://x.com/River_Whales/status/1856689119818121422
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
Sardinianshepherd
2 months ago
Forecast from this morning AP: 156.8M (-0.2M vs yestarday) Edison Research: 157.1M (-0.5M vs yestarday) ElectionLab: 155.4M (-0M vs yestarday): https://x.com/River_Whales/status/1856689119818121422
0
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
Sardinianshepherd
2 months ago
cali alone added 300K
0
Sardinianshepherd
2 months ago
this was the count in 2020 at election day + 2 weeks, when california had supposly finished the count: 155.8M: http://web.archive.org/web/20201119233032/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
Sardinianshepherd
2 months ago
the same it happen between 2016 (+3M) and 2008 (+2M) 2012 it is not in the saved
1
Sardinianshepherd
2 months ago
this was the count in 2020 at election day + 2 weeks, when california had supposly finished the count: 155.8M: http://web.archive.org/web/20201119233032/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
Sardinianshepherd
2 months ago
3M votes magically happered
1
Sardinianshepherd
2 months ago
this was the count in 2020 at election day + 2 weeks, when california had supposly finished the count: 155.8M: http://web.archive.org/web/20201119233032/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
Sardinianshepherd
2 months ago
this the count 3 weeks after: http://web.archive.org/web/20201208222504/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/
0
Sardinianshepherd
2 months ago
this was the count in 2020 at election day + 2 weeks, when california had supposly finished the count: 155.8M: http://web.archive.org/web/20201119233032/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
Sardinianshepherd
2 months ago
this was the count in 2020 at election day + 2 weeks, when california had supposly finished the count: 155.8M: http://web.archive.org/web/20201119233032/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/
0
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
Sardinianshepherd
2 months ago
launching the UnlimitedMarketAbuse inverse bet index
5
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
Sardinianshepherd
2 months ago
so LA county has rejected 250k ballots?
0
ack
2 months ago
New unprocessed ballots report from California at 15,950,819 total. Down from 16,446,273.
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
Sardinianshepherd
2 months ago
UF keeping the count at 155+ https://election.lab.ufl.edu/2024-general-election-turnout/
2
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
Sardinianshepherd
2 months ago
you are missing 0.7M
0
mcpetrus
2 months ago
Missing ballots ~4,795,000 ----- Calculated votes in total: 154,352,773 ----- turnout 62 - 64 %.
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
Sardinianshepherd
2 months ago
you guys know that Gavin Newsom middle name is Rabs?
1
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
Sardinianshepherd
2 months ago
they have increased their estimate each time during the last updates
1
ack
2 months ago
New ElectionLab estimates out at 155.3M. Looks like they're gradually increasing. You may need to look in a private browser window if the old data is still cached. https://election.lab.ufl.edu/2024-general-election-turnout/
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
Sardinianshepherd
2 months ago
there is not a single estimate that is under 155
3
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
Sardinianshepherd
2 months ago
nate silver at 157.5 now https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1855608085571580169
0
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
Sardinianshepherd
2 months ago
they are no projecting ballot that that still need to be received
0
Sardinianshepherd
2 months ago
i have 156-158 as estimate bracket, Nate silver and Nate cohen have similar range all above 155, thou cali estimates have been growing
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
Sardinianshepherd
2 months ago
this is the most confusing table ever created
0
Justifax
2 months ago
One thing I'd like to point out the total counted + ballots to process is *increasing* over time. Eg, check out web archive - https://web.archive.org/web/20241108160628/https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/unprocessed-ballots-status First day it was 16,201,408 and currently it is 16.4M, a 200K increase. What will it be this evening, any guesses?
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
Sardinianshepherd
2 months ago
i have 156-158 as estimate bracket, Nate silver and Nate cohen have similar range all above 155, thou cali estimates have been growing
0
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
Sardinianshepherd
2 months ago
Even with your calculation you just need CA number to get 2% higher than what AP expects to get over the target. Looking at the Dat since a couple of day they are always revising up the CA numbers it is very high chance of this going over
0
0x23aA1FbB31c1F41E937780154604271A6c5938a0-1730772161973
2 months ago
Just ran my analysis basde on AP data. Currently the voter turnout is estimated to be 158,021,168
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
Sardinianshepherd
2 months ago
No worry guys Gavin has been ordered to find a couple of mil fake votes to make kamala loss less embarrassing, we have it in the bag
6
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
Sardinianshepherd
2 months ago
how did you count the 99%? as 1% or 0%?
0
austinwr84
2 months ago
159,943,470 to 159,971,701
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
Sardinianshepherd
2 months ago
true but at 5cent i can take that chance
0
Sardinianshepherd
2 months ago
According Nate Cohn final count should land around 157.5, it will just take a 0.6% error to bing it over 158.5 https://x.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1854550651055063453
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
Sardinianshepherd
2 months ago
According Nate Cohn final count should land around 157.5, it will just take a 0.6% error to bing it over 158.5 https://x.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1854550651055063453
4
Who will win young men?
Sardinianshepherd
2 months ago
is there going to be a next update?
0
traderbw
2 months ago
although it could flip again on the next update?!
Which states will move to the right in Presidential Election?
Sardinianshepherd
2 months ago
please some fill me in WA
0
Alaska Presidential Election Winner
Sardinianshepherd
2 months ago
easy money
0
Balance of Power: 2024 Election
Sardinianshepherd
2 months ago
please someone bring down that wall at 0.36 for RRR
0
What will Trump say during Atlanta, Georgia rally?
Sardinianshepherd
2 months ago
my count
0
big.mek
2 months ago
This is free money. Trump never said "rapist" since 2018.
What will Trump say during Atlanta, Georgia rally?
Sardinianshepherd
2 months ago
He said it few times like 4-3 events i think
1
big.mek
2 months ago
This is free money. Trump never said "rapist" since 2018.
What will Trump say during Atlanta, Georgia rally?
Sardinianshepherd
2 months ago
he said it in the last 2 rallies
1
frosen
2 months ago
Rogan 'Yes' at 66% lol, why the fuck would he say that?
Israel military action against Iraq before November?
Sardinianshepherd
3 months ago
please push it
1
Shekel
3 months ago
Two biggest buys were at 92 and 91 cents. If push Nos over 10 cents, then other small barking Yes dogs run away 🤗
Israel military action against Iraq before November?
Sardinianshepherd
3 months ago
Also WSJ and al jazeera
0
EmpirePending
3 months ago
Yes holders have one single sentence from one NYT article and have bid it up to 80c. Crazy stuff happening here
Israel military action against Iraq before November?
Sardinianshepherd
3 months ago
Also the WSJ reported it is over
2
Israel military action against Iraq before November?
Sardinianshepherd
3 months ago
the facilities hitten are not iraqi but of iran backed militias in iraq
0
90210
3 months ago
https://m.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-826158 "Iraqi facilities not affected by Israeli attack on Iran, agency rep..."
Israel military action against Iraq before November?
Sardinianshepherd
3 months ago
do not fall for Car scams
0
Uruguay Presidential Election
Sardinianshepherd
3 months ago
is there a second round?
0
Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?
Sardinianshepherd
3 months ago
there is nothing uncertain just low liquidity, i would propose but out of liquidity at the moment, hope some friend across the pond will propose when wake up
0
nicekitty
3 months ago
I love how the timeframe has passed but no one feels sure enough about the outcome to resolve it lmao
Who will lead on Silver Bulletin on Friday?
Sardinianshepherd
3 months ago
why you posted this, half of the harris better did not even know what they are betting on
0
BiggestBidenFan
3 months ago
#NEW Nate Silver 2024 election forecast update 🔵 Harris: 50.1% [-4.8] 🔴 Trump: 49.7% [+4.8] [+/- change over the past week]
Will Harris reach 60% before Trump flips her on Silver Bulletin?
Sardinianshepherd
3 months ago
I do not think you know on what you are betting on
0
JakeAirdropFarm
3 months ago
easy 2x, this will resolve to 50-50
Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?
Sardinianshepherd
3 months ago
One more Twitter refresh bro, trust me, they are about to enter
2
What will Trump say during Georgia speech?
Sardinianshepherd
3 months ago
why should he say crypto?
0
Will Harris reach 60% before Trump flips her on Silver Bulletin?
Sardinianshepherd
3 months ago
Easy money
0
JakeAirdropFarm
3 months ago
easy 2x, this will resolve to 50-50
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
Sardinianshepherd
3 months ago
why is this at 77 after this? https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1845179557852377508
0
What will Trump say during California rally?
Sardinianshepherd
3 months ago
he does it a lot: https://ariverwhale.substack.com/p/what-will-trump-say-during-california
0
Robyratto1
3 months ago
Why would he mention Alaska lol?
Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?
Sardinianshepherd
3 months ago
The invasion of Lebanon was voted on too early because it was proposed just a couple of hours before the deadline. It was then resolved as "NO" based on the information available on the 30th of September.
0
Foreseeable.
3 months ago
The 36th is already in BintJbeil. It's still classified though. This market might take a long time to resolve, but one thing is for sure: Israeli Boots have entered the muncipality of BintJbeil days ago. https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-823968
Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?
Sardinianshepherd
3 months ago
99% of the time "too early" is used when it proposed before the deadline, not after
0
Foreseeable.
3 months ago
The 36th is already in BintJbeil. It's still classified though. This market might take a long time to resolve, but one thing is for sure: Israeli Boots have entered the muncipality of BintJbeil days ago. https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-823968
Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?
Sardinianshepherd
3 months ago
Polymarkert and UMA resolve markets based on the info available at the end of the market this case next 3 days. They do not wait a long time
0
Foreseeable.
3 months ago
The 36th is already in BintJbeil. It's still classified though. This market might take a long time to resolve, but one thing is for sure: Israeli Boots have entered the muncipality of BintJbeil days ago. https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-823968
Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?
Sardinianshepherd
3 months ago
It is reffering to Bint Jbeil province not thr town, relax mate
1
Foreseeable.
3 months ago
WE GOT PROOF!!! "The only direct clash between the two national armies occurred on Oct. 3, when Israeli tank fire hit a Lebanese army post also in the area of Bint Jbeil, killing a soldier and prompting Lebanese soldiers to return fire." https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/israels-deadliest-strike-central-beirut-leaves-lebanese-stunned-114712851
What will Trump say during Colorado rally?
Sardinianshepherd
3 months ago
word count: https://x.com/River_Whales/status/1844493883935477938
0
What will Trump say during Colorado rally?
Sardinianshepherd
3 months ago
here the count: https://ariverwhale.substack.com/p/what-will-trump-say-during-michigan
0
Porcoddio
3 months ago
What's the success rate of Border in previous rallies?
What will Trump say during Reading, Pennsylvania rally? (7 PM ET)
Sardinianshepherd
3 months ago
when does it starts?
0
Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?
Sardinianshepherd
3 months ago
If it was step 0.1, it wouldn't take them more than 10 days to execute, right? In 2006, when it was indeed step 0.1, Bint Jbeil was the first thing they did and they did within 24 hours of the operation's start. Now we're 10 days in, and still nothing. It doesn't seem like a 0.1 step
0
Aquati
3 months ago
If they can bring professional photographs to the center of Maroun Al Ras, for sure the frontline it's at least 500 metres north, aka at the border or lighlt inside of Bint Jubeil
Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?
Sardinianshepherd
3 months ago
why getting in urban fight where they can just bomb the shit out of them?
0
Aquati
3 months ago
If they can bring professional photographs to the center of Maroun Al Ras, for sure the frontline it's at least 500 metres north, aka at the border or lighlt inside of Bint Jubeil
Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?
Sardinianshepherd
3 months ago
this is not Ukraine, there is not frontline, hezbollah can at best do some guerilla actions, the IDF enters clean what they want to clean and leave. No one are keeping them entering BJ if not their strat consideration
2
Aquati
3 months ago
If they can bring professional photographs to the center of Maroun Al Ras, for sure the frontline it's at least 500 metres north, aka at the border or lighlt inside of Bint Jubeil
Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?
Sardinianshepherd
3 months ago
https://x.com/MaucourantNada/status/1843687131732160917
0
Foreseeable.
3 months ago
WTF happened Kobafix? :(
Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?
Sardinianshepherd
3 months ago
A UNIFIL spokesperson told me that the Israeli army had withdrawn from its position in the southern Lebanon town of Maroun al-Ras, where it had earlier raised an Israeli flag. "We can’t independently verify where they moved to," UNIFIL said. Source is a pretty reliable lebanese journalist: https://x.com/MaucourantNada/status/1843687131732160917
0
Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?
Sardinianshepherd
3 months ago
there are not maps on tracking the military operation not the geography
0
Sardinianshepherd
3 months ago
this how poly resolve dispite
Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?
Sardinianshepherd
3 months ago
this how poly resolve dispite
0
Sardinianshepherd
3 months ago
As of the moment this market was created, there was no established map as the one we have for the Ukrainian war, such as those provided by ISW. Therefore, we had to rely on the best available information, which led to the request for footage or photos from the municipality of BJ. Usually, Poly goes by title, so my understanding is that the market refers to evidence within the town of BJ, not the suburbs, and that the footage or photo must come from a reputable news establishment, not a random X account. I suppose the real question that most of the "No" voters are betting on is: Will the IDF engage in urban combat this time, as it did in 2006, and enter the town of BJ? So far, that hasn't happened yet. I'm happy to wait and see what unfolds over the next week, but also happy for the "No" voters to ask a clarification on what we should read the rules, that are bit shity
Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?
Sardinianshepherd
3 months ago
https://predictionmarkets.miraheze.org/wiki/Headline_Template
0
FreemanR
3 months ago
Bro.. there were established maps, have been for years. The rules clearly say "municipality" as well, so yes, it can include suburbs.. and it does not require a reputable news source, but photo/video evidence, though a consenus of credible reporting can be used.. do not bet if you cannot read or if your English comprehension is not good brother.. you are fucked on this bet most likely..
Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?
Sardinianshepherd
3 months ago
As of the moment this market was created, there was no established map as the one we have for the Ukrainian war, such as those provided by ISW. Therefore, we had to rely on the best available information, which led to the request for footage or photos from the municipality of BJ. Usually, Poly goes by title, so my understanding is that the market refers to evidence within the town of BJ, not the suburbs, and that the footage or photo must come from a reputable news establishment, not a random X account. I suppose the real question that most of the "No" voters are betting on is: Will the IDF engage in urban combat this time, as it did in 2006, and enter the town of BJ? So far, that hasn't happened yet. I'm happy to wait and see what unfolds over the next week, but also happy for the "No" voters to ask a clarification on what we should read the rules, that are bit shity
1
Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?
Sardinianshepherd
3 months ago
@Kobafix By a random X account not really "consensus of credible reporting" happy for you to propose and contest it and let UMA decide
0
Foreseeable.
3 months ago
How does confirmation work? The Israelis dont post anything as far as I know. How do we prevent a situation where they obviously are in BJ, but there is no to little reporting? Dont appreciate another "Invade Lebanon" fight over my money :D
Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?
Sardinianshepherd
3 months ago
by precedent the polymarket goes mostly by title when in dispute, so my interpration is the within the town of BJ not the suburbs
1
Cedarville
3 months ago
bintjbeil.gov.lb/pages/html5story/index.html
Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?
Sardinianshepherd
3 months ago
just my two cent, but i guess it is also what the other NO holder are betting on
1
Foreseeable.
3 months ago
How does confirmation work? The Israelis dont post anything as far as I know. How do we prevent a situation where they obviously are in BJ, but there is no to little reporting? Dont appreciate another "Invade Lebanon" fight over my money :D
Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?
Sardinianshepherd
3 months ago
Also, to resolve this, we will need to show a photo or footage where it can clearly be confirmed that it is BJ (unlikely the tweet i'm seeing above that could be taken everywhere), or a photo or footage from a respected news establishment or written confirmation for several establishments (e.g., NYT, WSJ, etc.) that reports the IDF has entered the town of BJ
1
Foreseeable.
3 months ago
How does confirmation work? The Israelis dont post anything as far as I know. How do we prevent a situation where they obviously are in BJ, but there is no to little reporting? Dont appreciate another "Invade Lebanon" fight over my money :D
Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?
Sardinianshepherd
3 months ago
Bint Jbeil District is not Bint Jbeil municipality, from experince polymarket monstly interpret market by title, meaning that we need photo or footage in wihtin the town BJ, the market price in fact reflect that
2
Foreseeable.
3 months ago
How does confirmation work? The Israelis dont post anything as far as I know. How do we prevent a situation where they obviously are in BJ, but there is no to little reporting? Dont appreciate another "Invade Lebanon" fight over my money :D
What will Trump say during Reading, Pennsylvania rally? (7 PM ET)
Sardinianshepherd
3 months ago
words momentum analysis: https://x.com/River_Whales/status/1843618235784278342
2
Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?
Sardinianshepherd
3 months ago
you shouls check your sources
0
General.William.T.Sherman
3 months ago
Because they already told people to leave Bint like 4 days ago
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
Sardinianshepherd
3 months ago
Fellow Waltz bros, please tell me this ipsos opinion poll is coming
1
Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?
Sardinianshepherd
3 months ago
you are free to propose and see what UMA decide
0
Foreseeable.
3 months ago
This market is not about conquering BINT JBEIL, but about " Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality". Liveupmap already proofs that they are, and we got another 8 (!!!) days for further evidence. Im already knees deep invested, but this market at 68% is just bonkers :D
Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?
Sardinianshepherd
3 months ago
IDF: "are not going to Beirut. We’re not going to the cities in southern Lebanon. We are focusing on the area of those villages, the area next to our border. We will do in this area what is necessary to dismantle and demolish Hezbollah’s infrastructure" Bint Jbeil population: 30k not really a village
0
Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?
Sardinianshepherd
3 months ago
they must have stopped for coffee along the road
0
Sardinianshepherd
3 months ago
22-07-2006: Israeli ground invasion begins. 23-07-2006: Battle of Bint Jbeil begins. // 30-09-2024 israeli ground invasion begins 07-10-2024 still not IDF in Bint Jbail
Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?
Sardinianshepherd
3 months ago
22-07-2006: Israeli ground invasion begins. 23-07-2006: Battle of Bint Jbeil begins. // 30-09-2024 israeli ground invasion begins 07-10-2024 still not IDF in Bint Jbail
0
Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?
Sardinianshepherd
3 months ago
Bint Jbeil it is not among the towns IDF asked to be evacuated yestarday, if they wanted to conduct operation would not day asked the population to leave? https://x.com/AvichayAdraee/status/1842866906841170108
0
Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?
Sardinianshepherd
3 months ago
so not that sure then ;-)
0
Foreseeable.
3 months ago
and another geolocated source: https://x.com/Stinky915846091/status/1842988819446112612/photo/1
Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?
Sardinianshepherd
3 months ago
you can propose if you are so sure :)
0
Foreseeable.
3 months ago
and another geolocated source: https://x.com/Stinky915846091/status/1842988819446112612/photo/1
What will Trump say at Wisconsin rally?
Sardinianshepherd
3 months ago
What time does it start?
1
Israel military response against Iran by Sunday?
Sardinianshepherd
3 months ago
local timezone = time of the country of the event GMT+3
1
Sardinianshepherd
3 months ago
Polymarket should stop using ET and use local timezone it just adds confusion to the market
Israel military response against Iran by Sunday?
Sardinianshepherd
3 months ago
Polymarket should stop using ET and use local timezone it just adds confusion to the market
10
Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?
Sardinianshepherd
3 months ago
Nothing ever happens till it does
0
Remontada
3 months ago
So much time!
Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?
Sardinianshepherd
3 months ago
9 days to go
0
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
Sardinianshepherd
3 months ago
tick tock
0
What will Trump Say during North Carolina town hall?
Sardinianshepherd
3 months ago
latest trump rally transcrpits: https://ariverwhale.substack.com/p/polymarket-mention-markets-trump-46a?r=ym6gn
0
Will Harris publicly support tax on unrealized gains?
Sardinianshepherd
3 months ago
it is done boys: https://www.ft.com/content/2941e79d-cdc0-457e-a7a3-9c08f1f6e635
1
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Sardinianshepherd
3 months ago
The whales seems are taking the no side
0
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Sardinianshepherd
3 months ago
do not forget to highlight the date :)
0
McLarry
3 months ago
i'm looking on the bright side. i don't have much money left in this bet. if i lose here, i'll make a collage of all the invasion headlines and the result no here. if anyone ever asks about polymarkt i'll show them this funny collage
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Sardinianshepherd
3 months ago
https://ariverwhale.substack.com/i/148144180/in-a-contested-market-how-can-i-make-an-argument-for-what-i-think-is-the-correct-outcome
0
n/a
3 months ago
Can anyone link me to the discord for UMA? What happens since it’s P4?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Sardinianshepherd
3 months ago
So far on UMA evidence sharing thread where you can argue for resolution: you have 76% arguing for NO/TOO EARLY and only 23% for YES
0
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Sardinianshepherd
3 months ago
Guide on how to make an argument to Uma voters : https://ariverwhale.substack.com/p/polymarket-faq
0
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Sardinianshepherd
3 months ago
What should make YES holder worry is that Poly did not issue any clarification, something that usually do when they do not want the market to resolve on literal interpretation of the market rules
2
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Sardinianshepherd
3 months ago
Are raids aimed at establish control over any portion of Lebanon? i do not seen part of lebanon were IDF has control on
1
0xf555BBccF9549fA2Fb513140744dFBE0f057b2D5-1720199302797
3 months ago
IDF on X: In accordance with the decision of the political echelon, a few hours ago, the IDF began limited, localized, and targeted ground raids based on precise intelligence against Hezbollah terrorist targets and infrastructure in southern Lebanon. These targets are located in villages close to the border and pose an immediate threat to Israeli communities in northern Israel.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Sardinianshepherd
3 months ago
best username ever
1
Porcoddio
3 months ago
Imagine reading @Justifax nonsense all day and act according to him, just lol.
Will Russia capture Vuhledar before October?
Sardinianshepherd
3 months ago
you loaded up again`?
0
Gena🐊
3 months ago
No, thats the previous intersection
Will Russia capture Vuhledar before October?
Sardinianshepherd
3 months ago
Also UA news admit that cannot be defended, if it is not falling on monday is going to fall by the next one. But let's hope for this monday. i would say that 17% yes is a bit undervalue
0
n/a
3 months ago
🤡
Will Russia capture Vuhledar before October?
Sardinianshepherd
3 months ago
The 72nd is stuck as the Russians can bomb the remaining road out of the city. They are negotiating the surrender of the city, though apparently the 72nd wants to give those who want to try to break through the chance to do so. Let's see what the situation is on Monday
0
Will Harris publicly support tax on unrealized gains?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
Lol 50-pence just put another 11k
3
Will Russia capture Vuhledar before October?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
ogni giorno verso le 9 di sera ora italiana
0
JumpingJackFlash
4 months ago
Per caso sai ogni quanto l'ISW aggiorna le mappe? O meglio, lo fa con cadenza regolare? Grazie.
Will Russia capture Vuhledar before October?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
Zaly do not wanted to quit before meeting trump, saturday is the day. Russian will be quick to share video so should get on red pretty quickly also the ISW map
0
Will Russia capture Vuhledar before October?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
paper hands
0
What will Trump say during Michigan town hall?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
word analysis: https://x.com/River_Whales/status/1839042163738554710
1
Will Russia capture Vuhledar before October?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
considering that it is not seening trump i would say the later
0
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
They seems to be half a block away with today update, the real question is if the UA wants to resist till Zaly is in US doing they stunt tour or will retret to save spare the troups
Will Russia capture Vuhledar before October?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
They seems to be half a block away with today update, the real question is if the UA wants to resist till Zaly is in US doing they stunt tour or will retret to save spare the troups
0
Caroline Ellison sentenced to prison?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
they should cut my paper hands
1
Caroline Ellison prison time?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
i feel you bro
0
Justifax
4 months ago
damn paper hands
Will Harris publicly support tax on unrealized gains?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
Daddy 50-pence make us some money
0
What will Trump say during Georgia speech?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
word analysis: https://ariverwhale.substack.com/p/what-will-trump-say-during-georgia
0
What will Trump say during Georgia speech?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
this time crypto will hit, trust me bro, this is the time https://x.com/River_Whales/status/1838313638924603828
1
What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
It is oblosly me
1
TheNo1
4 months ago
@Sardinianshepherd — A question: is this link is related to this market creator; or by a coincidence you found it? Thanks 😊
What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
if you guys check the old mention markets with function closed market on poly, Crypto/bitcoin have never hit but at the crypto conference
1
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
analysis of how many time this words hit in the past: https://ariverwhale.substack.com/p/what-will-trump-say-during-pennsylvania
What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
analysis of how many time this words hit in the past: https://ariverwhale.substack.com/p/what-will-trump-say-during-pennsylvania
3
What will Trump say during North Carolina rally?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
List of previous Trump rally transcipts: https://x.com/River_Whales/status/1837486446979985550
1
Kamala Silver Bulletin odds >60% on Friday?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
yes a lot
1
KingofRingx3
4 months ago
Currently sitting at 48.9% and usually under 2% change every week. What am i missing that this is at 25cents for yes?
Sri Lanka Presidential Election Winner
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
no alpha in this bet at these prices, but here the polls https://www.ihp.lk/press-releases/ihp-election-eve-mrp-presidential-voting-intent-estimates
1
Kamala flips Trump on Silver Bulletin by Sept 30?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
Kamala needs a +0.12 in PA and it is done, she still has -0.5 of nevative convention adj
0
Kamala flips Trump on Silver Bulletin by Sept 30?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
it is not true harris has still a -0.5/-0.6 negative adjustment from the convention on state polls data that is phasing out, kamala just need a +0.1 in PA and it is a flip. But thanks for the money
0
BrandonThought
4 months ago
Daily reminder that positive economic data for September won't be released until next month so the model is probably operating max pos for Kamala right now
Caroline Ellison sentenced to prison?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
I trust Car
1
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
good play everyone
0
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
Is ZionLion the new mountainman?
1
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
may big J is retiring soon want to juice up his portfolio
0
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
The Fed tends to deliver what is fully priced in by the market, at 60% chance to happen 0.5 rate cut it is not fully priced in, so 0.25 is more likely
1
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
Fed interest rates trading like a shitcoin, why i am in this market only now? lol
2
Will Harris publicly support tax on unrealized gains?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
who exactly will ask her this question?
0
Caroline Ellison sentenced to prison?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
Sweet Carolineeeeee / I believe they never cooooould / Sweet Carolineeeeee
1
Crimean bridge hit before October?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
Nothing ever happens
2
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
must be the same insider that got loaded in YES shares of Beyonce at the DNC
0
BallzToTheWalz
4 months ago
Anyone else notice the suspicious 2nd largest holder on "Yes" made his account less than 2 weeks ago, loaded it with $70K+ and dropped absolutely all of it on Trump launching a coin when it was still 50 cents? I have a strong suspision that that's someone with inside info.
Sri Lanka Presidential Election Winner
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
How it is call the Sri Lanka nate silver?
0
What will Trump say during X space?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
Last crypto Trump crypto speech https://x.com/River_Whales/status/1834981032560349208
3
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
source?
0
asshole
4 months ago
From the Rug Radio mod: From our side, this seems more like an advertisement for a platform that collects political donations for Trump. Based on the information we have, there doesn't seem to be any involvement with issuing coins or any strong association between the platform and Trump. Be cautious of potential scams.
Caroline Ellison sentenced to prison?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
Caroline marry me
1
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
On their discord
1
Schopenhauer
4 months ago
Source ?
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
Rug radio said that on their side is just an interview not a coin launch
2
Trump Silver Bulletin odds >60% Friday?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
Harris has still in a -1% convention bounce correction, while Trump has a +0.3% to poll numbers for the same reson. This should continue to be phased out next week, with also economic fundamentals expected to continue to lose importance (now they pumping trump number by +0.6). A +1% increase in polling for Harris should bring her probability to around 46%
0
SaulGoodmanEsq
4 months ago
What's the argument no-bros? I think her polls have already topped, everyone's made up their mind.
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
There is still the option they launch after the election, at this price it's not worth selling. If they launch before the election, then congrats to mountain — well deserved victory we'll take the L.
0
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
I mean the video seems to be true, let's see what happen on monday
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
I mean the video seems to be true, let's see what happen on monday
1
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
last post i see on their telegram is Sep 7
0
Amok
4 months ago
They reposted on telegram. Token presale has launched. Only quest6ion is if the actual token will launch before the election now. Yes looks set to win.
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
last time took 3min to the official WLFI X account to re-twit Trump post, now it is 1h and still no WLFI repost, maybe the intern is sleeping
3
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
Do not worry guys, it is just mountainman that hacked trump X account
1
What will Trump say during Arizona rally?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
:(
0
05brownboy
4 months ago
scam
What will Trump say during Nevada rally?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
i did a quick analysis of the previus trump mention markets, if anyone intrested: https://ariverwhale.substack.com/p/polymarket-mention-markets-introduction
10
·
Liked by arvin, Dunco19 and 8 others
What will Trump say during Arizona rally?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
i did a quick analysis of the previus trump mention markets: https://ariverwhale.substack.com/p/polymarket-mention-markets-introduction
0
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
Pathetic like a YES position, thou i did not drop 3k on it
0
debased
4 months ago
silverlining in trump's debate debacle, maybe he is more likely to launch a token thinking what the hell i m losing anyway
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
well is going for sure better than this trade for you
0
Mountainman
4 months ago
Trump can not legally launch this while being president, we all know this, but no one has considered the fact that NO ONE is buying this coin if he loses. There is only one way this bet can go, and it is the current underdog play. Oh how do I love the emotional stupidity of this site sometimes. haha.
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
Shape of that chart curve does not look good montain
1
Mountainman
4 months ago
Trump can not legally launch this while being president, we all know this, but no one has considered the fact that NO ONE is buying this coin if he loses. There is only one way this bet can go, and it is the current underdog play. Oh how do I love the emotional stupidity of this site sometimes. haha.
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
He is so smart that got YES shares at 0.47
0
disko
4 months ago
mountainmain desperately pumping YES in the comments section for week with fake news and then trying to unload his losing shares one of the more predictable events of the evening
Will Russia capture Toretsk before October?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
Understand the people who got the NO the 0.3 taking the gain and leave, but it think there is still EV in this bet at this price
4
Will Russia capture Toretsk before October?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
I do not think russian will start urban fight before the take the near by town of Dachne, still need to get into the fight for it
2
Will Russia capture Toretsk before October?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
All this time will be used by the Ukrainians to fortify the city and this time will be not tunnel to trick the ukranians
0
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
Before carpet bombing, they need to at least partially encircle the city. However, they are still fighting for Niu-York. Until they consolidate their position there, they cannot do much, considering ukrainian force it seems they do not want to give it up easly it will take at least a week to only consolidate there
Will Russia capture Toretsk before October?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
Before carpet bombing, they need to at least partially encircle the city. However, they are still fighting for Niu-York. Until they consolidate their position there, they cannot do much, considering ukrainian force it seems they do not want to give it up easly it will take at least a week to only consolidate there
0
Justifax
4 months ago
This one is tricky. I thought the russians had given up. My concern now is that they might carpet bomb the city. I don't think it has tunnels like gaza.
Will Russia capture Toretsk before October?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
To the one buying: YES, I mean, we are at one-third of the time, and the Russians have slightly advanced and taken the prison on the outskirts of the city. They still have to enter the city and begin urban fighting while also fending off Ukrainian counterattacks. Yes, it is still overvalued; it should be something like 20/80. I think ultimately Russia will take the city, but not by September
3
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
https://ariverwhale.substack.com/p/will-trump-launch-a-coin-before-the
1
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
Lol no way this happing, thanks for the free money https://ariverwhale.substack.com/p/will-trump-launch-a-coin-before-the
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
Are non-transferable governance tokens even coin?
1
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
Usually, it takes about 3 to 12 months from a white paper to the deployment of a crypto asset
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
Usually, it takes about 3 to 12 months from a white paper to the deployment of a crypto asset
1
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
Lol no way this happing, thanks for the free money https://ariverwhale.substack.com/p/will-trump-launch-a-coin-before-the
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
Launching a coin during his campaign would likely open the door for attacks from the Harris campaign. Guess what matter what to trump a shity coin or win the elections
1
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
few points: The rules of the market are very vague, Polymarket and UMA are likely to interpret these rules very restrictively
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
few points: The rules of the market are very vague, Polymarket and UMA are likely to interpret these rules very restrictively
1
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
Lol no way this happing, thanks for the free money https://ariverwhale.substack.com/p/will-trump-launch-a-coin-before-the
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
Lol no way this happing, thanks for the free money https://ariverwhale.substack.com/p/will-trump-launch-a-coin-before-the
3
Who will speak more at the debate?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
I do not either please trump holders sell your shares
0
Car
4 months ago
I really don't understand Trump holders.
Will Russia capture Toretsk before October?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
russians semms to focus their efforts south of Pokrovsk, no is still cheap tbh
0
CheerfulPessimist
4 months ago
No, no fighting on the Sabbath.
Will Russia capture Chasiv Yar before October?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
If some city has to fall this month is going to be Toretsk that is the central salinet of the Ukrainian defence in the dombass, where the russian are focusing not really chasiv yar that is right salient. Russian have at best the man power to push just in a city
0
Who will speak more at the debate?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
please guys keep buying Kamala so it becomes cheaper
3
Will Russia capture Toretsk before October?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
people realized they were pipedreams
3
FindingNemo
4 months ago
What is with the latest price action?
Who will speak more at the debate?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
Who will win a guy that repeat it's sentences 3 times or o lady that is afreid to do an interviews
1
Who will speak more at the debate?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
Lol they have set times, what he can let her talk. It is just down to speaking styles
1
Car
4 months ago
https://x.com/zerohedge/status/1831498392486474094
Who will speak more at the debate?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
nice pump a dump try, they do not shoot you if you do not use the full time
5
Car
4 months ago
how can Trump speak more if they are both only allowed to speak 2 minutes each question? :)
Who will speak more at the debate?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
lol, Trump is just a rambler that says the same word 3 times before to move on
2
Will Russia capture Toretsk before October?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
https://ariverwhale.substack.com/p/will-russia-capture-toretsk-before
0
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
No is very undervalued, Toretsk is one of the Ukrainian salients in the Donbass together with Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk, if it falls the front will collapse to Kostiantynivka. By precendents in this war to clear a city takes up several months, and first comes partial encirclement. The Russians may have a momentum but to turn a 3/4 months job in one month there should be a total Ukrainian collapse. I see the real odds NO: 0.6 and YES: 0.4
Will Russia capture Toretsk before October?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar are 0.9 not falling in a month or 2 also if Toretsk fall, though Pokrovsk market close end of november so do not want to keep the money blocked for so long
0
FindingNemo
4 months ago
1.1km away, vs Pokrovsk at 11km. I would buy a bigger position in there. Here the front is really close.
Will Lex podcast with Trump be over 90 minutes?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
never trust an autistic, boys
1
Kamala flips Trump on Silver's Bulletin by Sept 6?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
from bihind the paywall: So what you’ve been in the forecast in recent days is actually a blend of: (A) Our polling averages from before the DNC and RFK’s dropout, and (B) Our current polling averages with the convention bounce adjustment applied. What’s a little counterintuitive is that B is actually slightly worse for Harris than A because of the convention bounce adjustment. And every day, the model has been blending in more B and less A, so this has been hurting Harris. As of Sunday, the mix was about 2:1 in favor of B. By the end of this week, the model will fully discard A. This heuristic implies that she might fall slightly further in the forecast this week.
2
Will Lex podcast with Trump be over 90 minutes?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
When Trump is coming to your podcast his Trump deciding the time not you looking at past Lex interview means nothing
2
Will Lex podcast with Trump be over 90 minutes?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
netanyahu was in person
0
OmenOfLord
4 months ago
Virtual. Last in person to be less than 90 minutes was April 2022.
Will Lex podcast with Trump be over 90 minutes?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
lol no way that trump stays in interview for more than an hour, a good benchmark is Lex with netanyahu that was about 1h
0
Will Russia capture Toretsk before October?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
No is very undervalued, Toretsk is one of the Ukrainian salients in the Donbass together with Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk, if it falls the front will collapse to Kostiantynivka. By precendents in this war to clear a city takes up several months, and first comes partial encirclement. The Russians may have a momentum but to turn a 3/4 months job in one month there should be a total Ukrainian collapse. I see the real odds NO: 0.6 and YES: 0.4
2
Trump flips Kamala on Nate Silver's Bulletin?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
Toss a coin to your favorite nerd ooo polymarket
1
Trump flips Kamala on Nate Silver's Bulletin?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
Still waiting for this poll
0
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
1/ Nate model is desing to take in account very aggressively specific like the convention 2/ Nate model is expecting a convention bounce for kamala of +2.5 to stay at the same level she is now 3/ kamala is see limited bounce 4/ kamala in the last two days lost 4 in the nate forecast now it is just one point but the trend is heading on a flip
Trump flips Kamala on Nate Silver's Bulletin?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
2.5% to be precise
1
0x63325293geDetgu4g028d8hh9dDegjAsuneg44
4 months ago
did you remember to take off 2% from Kamala?
Trump flips Kamala on Nate Silver's Bulletin?
Sardinianshepherd
4 months ago
1/ Nate model is desing to take in account very aggressively specific like the convention 2/ Nate model is expecting a convention bounce for kamala of +2.5 to stay at the same level she is now 3/ kamala is see limited bounce 4/ kamala in the last two days lost 4 in the nate forecast now it is just one point but the trend is heading on a flip
0
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
only 2 cadidates did not increase their numbers a week after their conference. On this market that ends just a day after this one the probabily of Harris leading +1.5 is at 80% https://polymarket.com/event/if-rfk-drops-out-who-will-gain-more-in-polls/if-rfk-drops-out-who-will-gain-more-in-polls?tid=1724788233757
0
BoMarley1029
5 months ago
Am I missing something? People are acting like Harris has this in the bag, but if I understand the rules correct, it's about who will benefit more, eg: Trump will still win if Harris leads by the end of the week as long as her lead has decreased slightly.
Pavel Durov released in August?
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
https://www.tf1info.fr/justice-faits-divers/info-tf1-lci-le-fondateur-et-pdg-de-la-messagerie-cryptee-telegram-interpelle-en-france-2316072.html
2
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
"Pavel Durov will end up in pretrial detention, that's for sure ," comments an investigator with TF1/LCI. "On his platform, he allowed an incalculable number of offences and crimes to be committed, for which he did nothing to moderate or cooperate ," analyses a source close to the case. His pre-trial detention following his indictment is indeed beyond doubt. Pavel Durov, a billionaire, has the means to escape and his guarantees of representation will hardly convince the judges.
Pavel Durov released in August?
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
"Pavel Durov will end up in pretrial detention, that's for sure ," comments an investigator with TF1/LCI. "On his platform, he allowed an incalculable number of offences and crimes to be committed, for which he did nothing to moderate or cooperate ," analyses a source close to the case. His pre-trial detention following his indictment is indeed beyond doubt. Pavel Durov, a billionaire, has the means to escape and his guarantees of representation will hardly convince the judges.
2
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
Nate silver expect an increase in Harris polling https://www.natesilver.net/p/we-removed-rfk-jr-from-our-model
3
Trump flips Kamala on Nate Silver's Bulletin?
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
he just say that highly Harris lead will increase https://www.natesilver.net/p/we-removed-rfk-jr-from-our-model
0
Mass arrests at DNC?
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
big money sold the no, what is cooking?
0
Will Ukraine hold Kursk through October 31?
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
Ukraine just blow up the bridge near at border of the new controlled zone, good luck for the russian to the the other shores lol
2
Mass arrests at DNC?
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
Switched the bet to no, no sign of arrested at the moment at Day 3, and protest seems to fade way. Probability that the number of arrest is not going to reached is higher than current price. So adjusted the bet accordinly
4
Mass arrests at DNC?
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
Domer aka JustKam said in a podcast just couple of days ago that got fuck up several times by the UMA voting
0
pootytherewardfarmer
5 months ago
Personally, I would have bet Yes but if there's one thing I learnt from past resolutions on ambigious markets like this: never bet against the whales. You look at the profiles and net worth/PnL of top YES holders and top NO holders, when this gets disputed, its obvious who will win the UMA vote.
Mass arrests at DNC?
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
I do not what would make more clear
1
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
from their website: Whether it’s Genocide Joe, or Killer Kamala, the butchers of Gaza cannot be allowed to gather in Chicago undisturbed
Mass arrests at DNC?
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
from their website: Whether it’s Genocide Joe, or Killer Kamala, the butchers of Gaza cannot be allowed to gather in Chicago undisturbed
1
Car
5 months ago
Good luck arguing Pro Palestine protestors are people protesting the DNC when the Chicago police is calling them rioters and not protestors and when the Main Stream Media is calling them Pro-Palestine protestors.
Mass arrests at DNC?
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
The gathering point of Behind enemy lines' yestarday protest named "Stand with Palestine – Shut down the DNC for Gaza Protest!" was 500 W Madison, Chicago, that is the address of isreali ambassy: it is crealy a an anti-DNC protest https://behind-enemy-lines.org/protest-shut-down-the-dnc-for-gaza/
5
Mass arrests at DNC?
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
Behind Enemy Lines the organization behind the protest at the israeli consulate said today: "Dozens of people brutally arrested tonight outside the Israeli consulate by Brandon Johnson’s thugs defending the genocidal criminals inside the DNC."
1
🤺JustPunched
5 months ago
I can agree that there are people there to protest the DNC and maybe even that they're "DNC protesters" (I think it's misleading at this point, they seem far more like "pro-Palestine" protesters looking for places to protest). BUT here is the key piece of information -- they left the DNC! They did not protest the DNC last night, and they could have. They physically walked somewhere else and protested there instead. And it's miles away. And it's actually a much more logical place to have a pro-Palestine protest, considering the President advocated for an immediate ceasefire from the DNC floor on Monday night.
Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by Aug 31?
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
All of the viral loads detected in New Jersey wastewater have been from clade II. No cases from clade I have been diagnosed in the United States, a spokesperson for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said.
2
Mass arrests at DNC?
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
it is clearly an anti-DNC protest
4
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
this is from Behind Enemy Lines the organization behind the protest at the israeli consulate: "Dozens of people brutally arrested tonight outside the Israeli consulate by Brandon Johnson’s thugs defending the genocidal criminals inside the DNC."
Mass arrests at DNC?
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
https://www.instagram.com/p/C-6o7xXxWFR/
3
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
this is from Behind Enemy Lines the organization behind the protest at the israeli consulate: "Dozens of people brutally arrested tonight outside the Israeli consulate by Brandon Johnson’s thugs defending the genocidal criminals inside the DNC."
Mass arrests at DNC?
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
this is from Behind Enemy Lines the organization behind the protest at the israeli consulate: "Dozens of people brutally arrested tonight outside the Israeli consulate by Brandon Johnson’s thugs defending the genocidal criminals inside the DNC."
4
Mass arrests at DNC?
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
the protest in front of the consulate was called: "Shut down the DNC for Gaza!"
0
dreamer
5 months ago
The protest yesterday coincided with the DNC but it was not about protesting the DNC. It is a pro Palestinian protest in opposition to Israeli policies outside the Israeli consulate. Clear cut difference.
Mass arrests at DNC?
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
for the one argouning that yestaday arrest should not count
0
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
the protest of yestarday were organized by Behind Enemy Lines thated call the protest at Israeli consulate: "Shut down the DNC for Gaza!" https://behind-enemy-lines.org/dnc-schedule/
Mass arrests at DNC?
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
the protest of yestarday were organized by Behind Enemy Lines thated call the protest at Israeli consulate: "Shut down the DNC for Gaza!" https://behind-enemy-lines.org/dnc-schedule/
2
Mass arrests at DNC?
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
also the press confernce is callad "DNC Safety and Security Press Conference"
2
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
CPD just said between 55-60 yestarday, plus 13 the other day. he clearly said "arrested" https://www.facebook.com/CityofChicagoOfficial/videos/543955061298816/
Mass arrests at DNC?
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
CPD just said between 55-60 yestarday, plus 13 the other day. he clearly said "arrested" https://www.facebook.com/CityofChicagoOfficial/videos/543955061298816/
2
Mass arrests at DNC?
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
Police department is using "arrested": police department is used arrested: https://www.facebook.com/ChicagoPoliceDepartment/posts/886788346815718?comment_id=1427257341252393
0
SkillzThatKillz
5 months ago
“No” is getting destroyed here, but No can still win for two reasons: (1) news media often conflates “arrests” and “detentions.” We don’t have the arrest numbers from Chicago PD yet, and there is no way to determine arrests vs detentions until those numbers come out. (2) almost all arrests last night happened miles away from the DNC at the Israeli consulate. It’s going to be impossible for Yes to prove that those arrested were individually protesting the DNC as opposed to protesting Israel or the Biden Administration, or trying to influence Kamala Harris. If protestors were detained, not officially arrested, or if there is no public evidence of whether each individual was protesting the DNC instead of protesting Israel, “No” could still win.
Mass arrests at DNC?
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
Chicago police chief clearly says "arrested" in the press conference that should be good enough: https://www.facebook.com/ChicagoPoliceDepartment/posts/886788346815718?comment_id=1427257341252393
1
Mass arrests at DNC?
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
they build up very small position for their bank roll, it looks like more a "let's see where does it go" than a actually "I belive in it"
0
pootytherewardfarmer
5 months ago
When JustKam and aenews bets NO and if this market ends up in dispute, its probably going to resolve to NO. Guess I would need to find a way to dump my positions before its too late!
Will Ukraine hold Kursk through October 31?
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
Russia shown relatively low intrested in retake region and is not really of any strategic value, while on the contrary is probably high value for Ukraine, i do not see a reason why russia will make an effort to retake this
0
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-20-2024
Will Ukraine hold Kursk through October 31?
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-20-2024
0
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
Syrskyi also stated that Ukrainian forces aim to establish a buffer zone in Russian territory to prevent Russian forces from shelling Sumy Oblast and to “outpace” the efforts of the Russian forces at large. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on August 19 that the “preventative defense” of the Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast is the most effective countermeasure against Russian forces
Will Ukraine hold Kursk through October 31?
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
Syrskyi also stated that Ukrainian forces aim to establish a buffer zone in Russian territory to prevent Russian forces from shelling Sumy Oblast and to “outpace” the efforts of the Russian forces at large. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on August 19 that the “preventative defense” of the Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast is the most effective countermeasure against Russian forces
1
Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by Sep 30?
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
there is no outbreak outside africa, the WHO status was just a move to get more money to fight the disease in africa
1
Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by Aug 31?
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
@MichaelBurryd by understanding it is that Clade I is more virulent that does not autatically translate in more efficient human-to-human transmission, but all the data i found are pre-2024 so it may be biased
1
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
the no here is lot undervalue, a couple of thing to take in consideration:
Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by Aug 31?
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
Being Clade 1 worst than Clade 2, it is also more visibile and people are less likely to stay in close contact to sick people
1
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
the no here is lot undervalue, a couple of thing to take in consideration:
Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by Aug 31?
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
In 2022 first cases where in UK, and where pop up by the day, we have just one case in SWE with no case in other countries. Also UK is way more interconnected to USCAN than SWE
1
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
the no here is lot undervalue, a couple of thing to take in consideration:
Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by Aug 31?
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
Clade IIb has shown more efficient human-to-human transmission than Clade I (Monzón et al., 2022).
1
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
the no here is lot undervalue, a couple of thing to take in consideration:
Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by Aug 31?
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
Monkeypox (Mpox) Clade 1 is endemic of the Congo basin, while Clade 2 of west africa, west africa is a way more interconnected to rest of world then the countries in congo basin
1
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
the no here is lot undervalue, a couple of thing to take in consideration:
Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by Aug 31?
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
the outbreak was delected early vs 2022 where it was declered when you had already a cluster in Europe
1
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
the no here is lot undervalue, a couple of thing to take in consideration:
Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by Aug 31?
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
the no here is lot undervalue, a couple of thing to take in consideration:
1
Who will speak at the DNC?
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
why is cuban still 20%?
1
Will Ukraine hold Kursk through October 31?
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
This will give time to AU troups to dig in, October/novermber usally do not see major offensive due to poor weather condition. It is highly likely that russian will wait till winter to conduct major attack in the area
2
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
it seems that russia prefering keeping the momentum in the dombas than retake the territory lost in krusk
Will Ukraine hold Kursk through October 31?
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
it seems that russia prefering keeping the momentum in the dombas than retake the territory lost in krusk
2
Will Ukraine hold Kursk through Aug 31?
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
Ukraine just said that they are targeting the railway line between Moscow and Belgorod to disrupt Russia's logistics in the Donbas, they are not here to kicken out https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-kursk-incursion-we-dont-need-russian-land-2024-08-13/
1
Will Ukraine take the Kursk Nuclear Plant by Aug 31?
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
they may not reach the power plan but the chance are definitely higher than current 9%
3
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
Ukrainian spearheads are 50km for the power plan, Russian forces are struggling to establish the joint command and control structures necessary to coordinate operations and bring in experienced troops https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-12-2024
Will Ukraine take the Kursk Nuclear Plant by Aug 31?
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
Ukrainian spearheads are 50km for the power plan, Russian forces are struggling to establish the joint command and control structures necessary to coordinate operations and bring in experienced troops https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-12-2024
3
Will Ukraine take the Kursk Nuclear Plant by Aug 31?
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
at least we are not 8k down like you, lol
3
HamasDidNothingWrong
5 months ago
are you going to buy more shares, or are you posting this to get me to sell at a loss? I don't really find this persuasive enough to sell for a loss, so it is up to you to pump your shares higher...
Will Ukraine take the Kursk Nuclear Plant by Aug 31?
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
russia seems to have very low quality trups in the region
2
RadLilDude
5 months ago
Ukraine is sending some of its best troops and equipment to the offensive. Yes is very cheap
Will Ukraine take the Kursk Nuclear Plant by Aug 31?
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
i mean they are close the russian are digging in near the plan https://www.newsweek.com/russia-kursk-nuclear-power-plant-ukraine-raid-advances-1937715
2
Trump gets more black voters in 2024?
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
• The most enthusiastic demographic among Black voters for Harris are Black women; however, they are not the demographic switching to Trump, which is overwhelmingly male.
0
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
THIS A STRONG YES
Trump gets more black voters in 2024?
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
• New polls conducted after Biden's dropout continue to show increased appeal for Trump compared to the 2020 election among the Black voter population.
0
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
Republicans have increased their share of Black voters in the last two election cycles. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/3/18/why-are-black-voters-backing-donald-trump-in-record-numbers
Trump gets more black voters in 2024?
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
• Polls conducted before Biden's dropout consistently showed Trump gaining a bigger share of the Black male vote, driven by concerns over economics, inflation, and dissatisfaction with Biden.
0
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
Republicans have increased their share of Black voters in the last two election cycles. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/3/18/why-are-black-voters-backing-donald-trump-in-record-numbers
Trump gets more black voters in 2024?
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
• The post-Civil Rights movement generation is increasing their share of the vote due to demographic changes.
0
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
Republicans have increased their share of Black voters in the last two election cycles. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/3/18/why-are-black-voters-backing-donald-trump-in-record-numbers
Trump gets more black voters in 2024?
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
@Sardinianshe...• There is a generational divide among Black voters, with the older generation (pre-Civil Rights movement) leaning overwhelmingly Democratic, while the younger generation (post-Civil Rights movement) is more fluid https://www.pewresearch.org/race-and-ethnicity/2024/05/20/an-early-look-at-black-voters-views-on-biden-trump-and-election-2024/
0
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
Republicans have increased their share of Black voters in the last two election cycles. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/3/18/why-are-black-voters-backing-donald-trump-in-record-numbers
Trump gets more black voters in 2024?
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
Republicans have increased their share of Black voters in the last two election cycles. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/3/18/why-are-black-voters-backing-donald-trump-in-record-numbers
0
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
THIS A STRONG YES
Trump gets more black voters in 2024?
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
THIS A STRONG YES
4
Carles Puigdemont arrested in August?
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
it is done: https://www.ft.com/content/ba97c03b-f38d-4dd5-9baf-6314cafd71dd
1
Carles Puigdemont arrested in August?
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/wanted-catalan-separatist-puigdemont-back-belgium-after-avoiding-arrest-spain-2024-08-09/
0
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
His lawyer confirmed that is in Belgium, free money guys
Carles Puigdemont arrested in August?
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
the vehicle used by puigdemont to escape was owned by the police officer, lol
0
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
half of mossos d'esquadra are indepentist, no way they will arrest him
Carles Puigdemont arrested in August?
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
His lawyer confirmed that is in Belgium, free money guys
0
Carles Puigdemont arrested in August?
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
half of mossos d'esquadra are indepentist, no way they will arrest him
0
Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
The CCP puppets will not win
0
Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?
Sardinianshepherd
5 months ago
We are soo back
2