Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Sardinianshepherd

22 hours ago

The whales seems are taking the no side

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Sardinianshepherd

23 hours ago

do not forget to highlight the date :)

0

doglover69

23 hours ago

i'm looking on the bright side. i don't have much money left in this bet. if i lose here, i'll make a collage of all the invasion headlines and the result no here. if anyone ever asks about polymarkt i'll show them this funny collage

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Sardinianshepherd

1 day ago

https://ariverwhale.substack.com/i/148144180/in-a-contested-market-how-can-i-make-an-argument-for-what-i-think-is-the-correct-outcome

0

n/a

1 day ago

Can anyone link me to the discord for UMA? What happens since it’s P4?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Sardinianshepherd

1 day ago

So far on UMA evidence sharing thread where you can argue for resolution: you have 76% arguing for NO/TOO EARLY and only 23% for YES

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Sardinianshepherd

1 day ago

Guide on how to make an argument to Uma voters : https://ariverwhale.substack.com/p/polymarket-faq

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Sardinianshepherd

2 days ago

What should make YES holder worry is that Poly did not issue any clarification, something that usually do when they do not want the market to resolve on literal interpretation of the market rules

2

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Sardinianshepherd

2 days ago

Are raids aimed at establish control over any portion of Lebanon? i do not seen part of lebanon were IDF has control on

1

0xf555BBccF9549fA2Fb513140744dFBE0f057b2D5-1720199302797

2 days ago

IDF on X: In accordance with the decision of the political echelon, a few hours ago, the IDF began limited, localized, and targeted ground raids based on precise intelligence against Hezbollah terrorist targets and infrastructure in southern Lebanon. These targets are located in villages close to the border and pose an immediate threat to Israeli communities in northern Israel.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Sardinianshepherd

4 days ago

best username ever

1

Porcoddio

4 days ago

Imagine reading @Justifax nonsense all day and act according to him, just lol.

Will Russia capture Vuhledar before October?

Sardinianshepherd

4 days ago

you loaded up again`?

0

n/a

5 days ago

No, thats the previous intersection

Will Russia capture Vuhledar before October?

Sardinianshepherd

5 days ago

Also UA news admit that cannot be defended, if it is not falling on monday is going to fall by the next one. But let's hope for this monday. i would say that 17% yes is a bit undervalue

0

n/a

5 days ago

🤡

Will Russia capture Vuhledar before October?

Sardinianshepherd

5 days ago

The 72nd is stuck as the Russians can bomb the remaining road out of the city. They are negotiating the surrender of the city, though apparently the 72nd wants to give those who want to try to break through the chance to do so. Let's see what the situation is on Monday

0

Will Harris publicly support tax on unrealized gains?

Sardinianshepherd

6 days ago

Lol 50-pence just put another 11k

3

Will Russia capture Vuhledar before October?

Sardinianshepherd

6 days ago

ogni giorno verso le 9 di sera ora italiana

0

n/a

6 days ago

Per caso sai ogni quanto l'ISW aggiorna le mappe? O meglio, lo fa con cadenza regolare? Grazie.

Will Russia capture Vuhledar before October?

Sardinianshepherd

6 days ago

Zaly do not wanted to quit before meeting trump, saturday is the day. Russian will be quick to share video so should get on red pretty quickly also the ISW map

0

Will Russia capture Vuhledar before October?

Sardinianshepherd

1 week ago

paper hands

0

What will Trump say during Michigan town hall?

Sardinianshepherd

1 week ago

word analysis: https://x.com/River_Whales/status/1839042163738554710

1

Will Russia capture Vuhledar before October?

Sardinianshepherd

1 week ago

considering that it is not seening trump i would say the later

0

Sardinianshepherd

1 week ago

They seems to be half a block away with today update, the real question is if the UA wants to resist till Zaly is in US doing they stunt tour or will retret to save spare the troups

Will Russia capture Vuhledar before October?

Sardinianshepherd

1 week ago

They seems to be half a block away with today update, the real question is if the UA wants to resist till Zaly is in US doing they stunt tour or will retret to save spare the troups

0

Caroline Ellison sentenced to prison?

Sardinianshepherd

1 week ago

they should cut my paper hands

1

Caroline Ellison prison time?

Sardinianshepherd

1 week ago

i feel you bro

0

Justifax

1 week ago

damn paper hands

Will Harris publicly support tax on unrealized gains?

Sardinianshepherd

1 week ago

Daddy 50-pence make us some money

0

What will Trump say during Georgia speech?

Sardinianshepherd

1 week ago

word analysis: https://ariverwhale.substack.com/p/what-will-trump-say-during-georgia

0

What will Trump say during Georgia speech?

Sardinianshepherd

1 week ago

this time crypto will hit, trust me bro, this is the time https://x.com/River_Whales/status/1838313638924603828

1

What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?

Sardinianshepherd

1 week ago

It is oblosly me

1

n/a

1 week ago

@Sardinianshepherd — A question: is this link is related to this market creator; or by a coincidence you found it? Thanks 😊

What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?

Sardinianshepherd

1 week ago

if you guys check the old mention markets with function closed market on poly, Crypto/bitcoin have never hit but at the crypto conference

1

Sardinianshepherd

1 week ago

analysis of how many time this words hit in the past: https://ariverwhale.substack.com/p/what-will-trump-say-during-pennsylvania

What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?

Sardinianshepherd

1 week ago

analysis of how many time this words hit in the past: https://ariverwhale.substack.com/p/what-will-trump-say-during-pennsylvania

3

What will Trump say during North Carolina rally?

Sardinianshepherd

1 week ago

List of previous Trump rally transcipts: https://x.com/River_Whales/status/1837486446979985550

1

Kamala Silver Bulletin odds >60% on Friday?

Sardinianshepherd

1 week ago

yes a lot

1

n/a

1 week ago

Currently sitting at 48.9% and usually under 2% change every week. What am i missing that this is at 25cents for yes?

Sri Lanka Presidential Election Winner

Sardinianshepherd

1 week ago

no alpha in this bet at these prices, but here the polls https://www.ihp.lk/press-releases/ihp-election-eve-mrp-presidential-voting-intent-estimates

1

Kamala flips Trump on Silver Bulletin by Sept 30?

Sardinianshepherd

1 week ago

Kamala needs a +0.12 in PA and it is done, she still has -0.5 of nevative convention adj

0

Kamala flips Trump on Silver Bulletin by Sept 30?

Sardinianshepherd

1 week ago

it is not true harris has still a -0.5/-0.6 negative adjustment from the convention on state polls data that is phasing out, kamala just need a +0.1 in PA and it is a flip. But thanks for the money

0

TheFinalWord

2 weeks ago

Daily reminder that positive economic data for September won't be released until next month so the model is probably operating max pos for Kamala right now

Caroline Ellison sentenced to prison?

Sardinianshepherd

2 weeks ago

I trust Car

1

Fed Interest Rates: September 2024

Sardinianshepherd

2 weeks ago

good play everyone

0

Fed Interest Rates: September 2024

Sardinianshepherd

2 weeks ago

Is ZionLion the new mountainman?

1

Fed Interest Rates: September 2024

Sardinianshepherd

2 weeks ago

may big J is retiring soon want to juice up his portfolio

0

Fed Interest Rates: September 2024

Sardinianshepherd

2 weeks ago

The Fed tends to deliver what is fully priced in by the market, at 60% chance to happen 0.5 rate cut it is not fully priced in, so 0.25 is more likely

1

Fed Interest Rates: September 2024

Sardinianshepherd

2 weeks ago

Fed interest rates trading like a shitcoin, why i am in this market only now? lol

2

Will Harris publicly support tax on unrealized gains?

Sardinianshepherd

2 weeks ago

who exactly will ask her this question?

0

Caroline Ellison sentenced to prison?

Sardinianshepherd

2 weeks ago

Sweet Carolineeeeee / I believe they never cooooould / Sweet Carolineeeeee

1

Crimean bridge hit before October?

Sardinianshepherd

2 weeks ago

Nothing ever happens

2

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Sardinianshepherd

2 weeks ago

must be the same insider that got loaded in YES shares of Beyonce at the DNC

0

BallzToTheWalz

2 weeks ago

Anyone else notice the suspicious 2nd largest holder on "Yes" made his account less than 2 weeks ago, loaded it with $70K+ and dropped absolutely all of it on Trump launching a coin when it was still 50 cents? I have a strong suspision that that's someone with inside info.

Sri Lanka Presidential Election Winner

Sardinianshepherd

2 weeks ago

How it is call the Sri Lanka nate silver?

0

What will Trump say during X space?

Sardinianshepherd

2 weeks ago

Last crypto Trump crypto speech https://x.com/River_Whales/status/1834981032560349208

3

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Sardinianshepherd

2 weeks ago

source?

0

asshole

2 weeks ago

From the Rug Radio mod: From our side, this seems more like an advertisement for a platform that collects political donations for Trump. Based on the information we have, there doesn't seem to be any involvement with issuing coins or any strong association between the platform and Trump. Be cautious of potential scams.

Caroline Ellison sentenced to prison?

Sardinianshepherd

2 weeks ago

Caroline marry me

1

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Sardinianshepherd

2 weeks ago

On their discord

1

Schopenhauer

2 weeks ago

Source ?

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Sardinianshepherd

2 weeks ago

Rug radio said that on their side is just an interview not a coin launch

2

Trump Silver Bulletin odds >60% Friday?

Sardinianshepherd

2 weeks ago

Harris has still in a -1% convention bounce correction, while Trump has a +0.3% to poll numbers for the same reson. This should continue to be phased out next week, with also economic fundamentals expected to continue to lose importance (now they pumping trump number by +0.6). A +1% increase in polling for Harris should bring her probability to around 46%

0

n/a

2 weeks ago

What's the argument no-bros? I think her polls have already topped, everyone's made up their mind.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Sardinianshepherd

2 weeks ago

There is still the option they launch after the election, at this price it's not worth selling. If they launch before the election, then congrats to mountain — well deserved victory we'll take the L.

0

Sardinianshepherd

2 weeks ago

I mean the video seems to be true, let's see what happen on monday

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Sardinianshepherd

2 weeks ago

I mean the video seems to be true, let's see what happen on monday

1

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Sardinianshepherd

2 weeks ago

last post i see on their telegram is Sep 7

0

Amok

2 weeks ago

They reposted on telegram. Token presale has launched. Only quest6ion is if the actual token will launch before the election now. Yes looks set to win.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Sardinianshepherd

3 weeks ago

last time took 3min to the official WLFI X account to re-twit Trump post, now it is 1h and still no WLFI repost, maybe the intern is sleeping

3

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Sardinianshepherd

3 weeks ago

Do not worry guys, it is just mountainman that hacked trump X account

1

What will Trump say during Arizona rally?

Sardinianshepherd

3 weeks ago

:(

0

n/a

3 weeks ago

scam

What will Trump say during Nevada rally?

Sardinianshepherd

3 weeks ago

i did a quick analysis of the previus trump mention markets, if anyone intrested: https://ariverwhale.substack.com/p/polymarket-mention-markets-introduction

10

·

Liked by arvin, Dunco19 and 8 others

What will Trump say during Arizona rally?

Sardinianshepherd

3 weeks ago

i did a quick analysis of the previus trump mention markets: https://ariverwhale.substack.com/p/polymarket-mention-markets-introduction

0

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Sardinianshepherd

3 weeks ago

Pathetic like a YES position, thou i did not drop 3k on it

0

basedd

3 weeks ago

silverlining in trump's debate debacle, maybe he is more likely to launch a token thinking what the hell i m losing anyway

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Sardinianshepherd

3 weeks ago

well is going for sure better than this trade for you

0

Mountainman

3 weeks ago

Trump can not legally launch this while being president, we all know this, but no one has considered the fact that NO ONE is buying this coin if he loses. There is only one way this bet can go, and it is the current underdog play. Oh how do I love the emotional stupidity of this site sometimes. haha.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Sardinianshepherd

3 weeks ago

Shape of that chart curve does not look good montain

1

Mountainman

3 weeks ago

Trump can not legally launch this while being president, we all know this, but no one has considered the fact that NO ONE is buying this coin if he loses. There is only one way this bet can go, and it is the current underdog play. Oh how do I love the emotional stupidity of this site sometimes. haha.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Sardinianshepherd

3 weeks ago

He is so smart that got YES shares at 0.47

0

disko

3 weeks ago

mountainmain desperately pumping YES in the comments section for week with fake news and then trying to unload his losing shares one of the more predictable events of the evening

Will Russia capture Toretsk before October?

Sardinianshepherd

3 weeks ago

Understand the people who got the NO the 0.3 taking the gain and leave, but it think there is still EV in this bet at this price

4

Will Russia capture Toretsk before October?

Sardinianshepherd

3 weeks ago

I do not think russian will start urban fight before the take the near by town of Dachne, still need to get into the fight for it

2

Will Russia capture Toretsk before October?

Sardinianshepherd

3 weeks ago

All this time will be used by the Ukrainians to fortify the city and this time will be not tunnel to trick the ukranians

0

Sardinianshepherd

3 weeks ago

Before carpet bombing, they need to at least partially encircle the city. However, they are still fighting for Niu-York. Until they consolidate their position there, they cannot do much, considering ukrainian force it seems they do not want to give it up easly it will take at least a week to only consolidate there

Will Russia capture Toretsk before October?

Sardinianshepherd

3 weeks ago

Before carpet bombing, they need to at least partially encircle the city. However, they are still fighting for Niu-York. Until they consolidate their position there, they cannot do much, considering ukrainian force it seems they do not want to give it up easly it will take at least a week to only consolidate there

0

Justifax

3 weeks ago

This one is tricky. I thought the russians had given up. My concern now is that they might carpet bomb the city. I don't think it has tunnels like gaza.

Will Russia capture Toretsk before October?

Sardinianshepherd

3 weeks ago

To the one buying: YES, I mean, we are at one-third of the time, and the Russians have slightly advanced and taken the prison on the outskirts of the city. They still have to enter the city and begin urban fighting while also fending off Ukrainian counterattacks. Yes, it is still overvalued; it should be something like 20/80. I think ultimately Russia will take the city, but not by September

3

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Sardinianshepherd

3 weeks ago

https://ariverwhale.substack.com/p/will-trump-launch-a-coin-before-the

1

Sardinianshepherd

3 weeks ago

Lol no way this happing, thanks for the free money https://ariverwhale.substack.com/p/will-trump-launch-a-coin-before-the

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Sardinianshepherd

3 weeks ago

Are non-transferable governance tokens even coin?

1

Sardinianshepherd

3 weeks ago

Usually, it takes about 3 to 12 months from a white paper to the deployment of a crypto asset

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Sardinianshepherd

3 weeks ago

Usually, it takes about 3 to 12 months from a white paper to the deployment of a crypto asset

1

Sardinianshepherd

3 weeks ago

Lol no way this happing, thanks for the free money https://ariverwhale.substack.com/p/will-trump-launch-a-coin-before-the

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Sardinianshepherd

3 weeks ago

Launching a coin during his campaign would likely open the door for attacks from the Harris campaign. Guess what matter what to trump a shity coin or win the elections

1

Sardinianshepherd

3 weeks ago

few points: The rules of the market are very vague, Polymarket and UMA are likely to interpret these rules very restrictively

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Sardinianshepherd

3 weeks ago

few points: The rules of the market are very vague, Polymarket and UMA are likely to interpret these rules very restrictively

1

Sardinianshepherd

3 weeks ago

Lol no way this happing, thanks for the free money https://ariverwhale.substack.com/p/will-trump-launch-a-coin-before-the

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Sardinianshepherd

3 weeks ago

Lol no way this happing, thanks for the free money https://ariverwhale.substack.com/p/will-trump-launch-a-coin-before-the

3

Who will speak more at the debate?

Sardinianshepherd

3 weeks ago

I do not either please trump holders sell your shares

0

n/a

3 weeks ago

I really don't understand Trump holders.

Will Russia capture Toretsk before October?

Sardinianshepherd

3 weeks ago

russians semms to focus their efforts south of Pokrovsk, no is still cheap tbh

0

n/a

3 weeks ago

No, no fighting on the Sabbath.

Will Russia capture Chasiv Yar before October?

Sardinianshepherd

0 months ago

If some city has to fall this month is going to be Toretsk that is the central salinet of the Ukrainian defence in the dombass, where the russian are focusing not really chasiv yar that is right salient. Russian have at best the man power to push just in a city

0

Who will speak more at the debate?

Sardinianshepherd

0 months ago

please guys keep buying Kamala so it becomes cheaper

3

Will Russia capture Toretsk before October?

Sardinianshepherd

0 months ago

people realized they were pipedreams

3

Werty1

0 months ago

What is with the latest price action?

Who will speak more at the debate?

Sardinianshepherd

0 months ago

Who will win a guy that repeat it's sentences 3 times or o lady that is afreid to do an interviews

1

Who will speak more at the debate?

Sardinianshepherd

0 months ago

Lol they have set times, what he can let her talk. It is just down to speaking styles

1

n/a

0 months ago

https://x.com/zerohedge/status/1831498392486474094

Who will speak more at the debate?

Sardinianshepherd

0 months ago

nice pump a dump try, they do not shoot you if you do not use the full time

5

n/a

0 months ago

how can Trump speak more if they are both only allowed to speak 2 minutes each question? :)

Who will speak more at the debate?

Sardinianshepherd

0 months ago

lol, Trump is just a rambler that says the same word 3 times before to move on

2

Will Russia capture Toretsk before October?

Sardinianshepherd

0 months ago

https://ariverwhale.substack.com/p/will-russia-capture-toretsk-before

0

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

No is very undervalued, Toretsk is one of the Ukrainian salients in the Donbass together with Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk, if it falls the front will collapse to Kostiantynivka. By precendents in this war to clear a city takes up several months, and first comes partial encirclement. The Russians may have a momentum but to turn a 3/4 months job in one month there should be a total Ukrainian collapse. I see the real odds NO: 0.6 and YES: 0.4

Will Russia capture Toretsk before October?

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar are 0.9 not falling in a month or 2 also if Toretsk fall, though Pokrovsk market close end of november so do not want to keep the money blocked for so long

0

Werty1

1 month ago

1.1km away, vs Pokrovsk at 11km. I would buy a bigger position in there. Here the front is really close.

Will Lex podcast with Trump be over 90 minutes?

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

never trust an autistic, boys

1

Kamala flips Trump on Silver's Bulletin by Sept 6?

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

from bihind the paywall: So what you’ve been in the forecast in recent days is actually a blend of: (A) Our polling averages from before the DNC and RFK’s dropout, and (B) Our current polling averages with the convention bounce adjustment applied. What’s a little counterintuitive is that B is actually slightly worse for Harris than A because of the convention bounce adjustment. And every day, the model has been blending in more B and less A, so this has been hurting Harris. As of Sunday, the mix was about 2:1 in favor of B. By the end of this week, the model will fully discard A. This heuristic implies that she might fall slightly further in the forecast this week.

2

Will Lex podcast with Trump be over 90 minutes?

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

When Trump is coming to your podcast his Trump deciding the time not you looking at past Lex interview means nothing

2

Will Lex podcast with Trump be over 90 minutes?

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

netanyahu was in person

0

OmenOfLord

1 month ago

Virtual. Last in person to be less than 90 minutes was April 2022.

Will Lex podcast with Trump be over 90 minutes?

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

lol no way that trump stays in interview for more than an hour, a good benchmark is Lex with netanyahu that was about 1h

0

Will Russia capture Toretsk before October?

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

No is very undervalued, Toretsk is one of the Ukrainian salients in the Donbass together with Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk, if it falls the front will collapse to Kostiantynivka. By precendents in this war to clear a city takes up several months, and first comes partial encirclement. The Russians may have a momentum but to turn a 3/4 months job in one month there should be a total Ukrainian collapse. I see the real odds NO: 0.6 and YES: 0.4

2

Trump flips Kamala on Nate Silver's Bulletin?

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

Toss a coin to your favorite nerd ooo polymarket

1

Trump flips Kamala on Nate Silver's Bulletin?

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

Still waiting for this poll

0

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

1/ Nate model is desing to take in account very aggressively specific like the convention 2/ Nate model is expecting a convention bounce for kamala of +2.5 to stay at the same level she is now 3/ kamala is see limited bounce 4/ kamala in the last two days lost 4 in the nate forecast now it is just one point but the trend is heading on a flip

Trump flips Kamala on Nate Silver's Bulletin?

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

2.5% to be precise

1

n/a

1 month ago

did you remember to take off 2% from Kamala?

Trump flips Kamala on Nate Silver's Bulletin?

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

1/ Nate model is desing to take in account very aggressively specific like the convention 2/ Nate model is expecting a convention bounce for kamala of +2.5 to stay at the same level she is now 3/ kamala is see limited bounce 4/ kamala in the last two days lost 4 in the nate forecast now it is just one point but the trend is heading on a flip

0

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

only 2 cadidates did not increase their numbers a week after their conference. On this market that ends just a day after this one the probabily of Harris leading +1.5 is at 80% https://polymarket.com/event/if-rfk-drops-out-who-will-gain-more-in-polls/if-rfk-drops-out-who-will-gain-more-in-polls?tid=1724788233757

0

BoMarley1029

1 month ago

Am I missing something? People are acting like Harris has this in the bag, but if I understand the rules correct, it's about who will benefit more, eg: Trump will still win if Harris leads by the end of the week as long as her lead has decreased slightly.

Pavel Durov released in August?

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

https://www.tf1info.fr/justice-faits-divers/info-tf1-lci-le-fondateur-et-pdg-de-la-messagerie-cryptee-telegram-interpelle-en-france-2316072.html

2

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

"Pavel Durov will end up in pretrial detention, that's for sure ," comments an investigator with TF1/LCI. "On his platform, he allowed an incalculable number of offences and crimes to be committed, for which he did nothing to moderate or cooperate ," analyses a source close to the case. His pre-trial detention following his indictment is indeed beyond doubt. Pavel Durov, a billionaire, has the means to escape and his guarantees of representation will hardly convince the judges.

Pavel Durov released in August?

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

"Pavel Durov will end up in pretrial detention, that's for sure ," comments an investigator with TF1/LCI. "On his platform, he allowed an incalculable number of offences and crimes to be committed, for which he did nothing to moderate or cooperate ," analyses a source close to the case. His pre-trial detention following his indictment is indeed beyond doubt. Pavel Durov, a billionaire, has the means to escape and his guarantees of representation will hardly convince the judges.

2

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

Nate silver expect an increase in Harris polling https://www.natesilver.net/p/we-removed-rfk-jr-from-our-model

3

Trump flips Kamala on Nate Silver's Bulletin?

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

he just say that highly Harris lead will increase https://www.natesilver.net/p/we-removed-rfk-jr-from-our-model

0

Mass arrests at DNC?

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

big money sold the no, what is cooking?

0

Will Ukraine hold Kursk through October 31?

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

Ukraine just blow up the bridge near at border of the new controlled zone, good luck for the russian to the the other shores lol

2

Mass arrests at DNC?

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

Switched the bet to no, no sign of arrested at the moment at Day 3, and protest seems to fade way. Probability that the number of arrest is not going to reached is higher than current price. So adjusted the bet accordinly

4

Mass arrests at DNC?

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

Domer aka JustKam said in a podcast just couple of days ago that got fuck up several times by the UMA voting

0

pootytherewardfarmer

1 month ago

Personally, I would have bet Yes but if there's one thing I learnt from past resolutions on ambigious markets like this: never bet against the whales. You look at the profiles and net worth/PnL of top YES holders and top NO holders, when this gets disputed, its obvious who will win the UMA vote.

Mass arrests at DNC?

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

I do not what would make more clear

1

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

from their website: Whether it’s Genocide Joe, or Killer Kamala, the butchers of Gaza cannot be allowed to gather in Chicago undisturbed

Mass arrests at DNC?

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

from their website: Whether it’s Genocide Joe, or Killer Kamala, the butchers of Gaza cannot be allowed to gather in Chicago undisturbed

1

n/a

1 month ago

Good luck arguing Pro Palestine protestors are people protesting the DNC when the Chicago police is calling them rioters and not protestors and when the Main Stream Media is calling them Pro-Palestine protestors.

Mass arrests at DNC?

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

The gathering point of Behind enemy lines' yestarday protest named "Stand with Palestine – Shut down the DNC for Gaza Protest!" was 500 W Madison, Chicago, that is the address of isreali ambassy: it is crealy a an anti-DNC protest https://behind-enemy-lines.org/protest-shut-down-the-dnc-for-gaza/

5

Mass arrests at DNC?

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

Behind Enemy Lines the organization behind the protest at the israeli consulate said today: "Dozens of people brutally arrested tonight outside the Israeli consulate by Brandon Johnson’s thugs defending the genocidal criminals inside the DNC."

1

🤺JustKen

1 month ago

I can agree that there are people there to protest the DNC and maybe even that they're "DNC protesters" (I think it's misleading at this point, they seem far more like "pro-Palestine" protesters looking for places to protest). BUT here is the key piece of information -- they left the DNC! They did not protest the DNC last night, and they could have. They physically walked somewhere else and protested there instead. And it's miles away. And it's actually a much more logical place to have a pro-Palestine protest, considering the President advocated for an immediate ceasefire from the DNC floor on Monday night.

Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by Aug 31?

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

All of the viral loads detected in New Jersey wastewater have been from clade II. No cases from clade I have been diagnosed in the United States, a spokesperson for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said.

2

Mass arrests at DNC?

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

it is clearly an anti-DNC protest

4

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

this is from Behind Enemy Lines the organization behind the protest at the israeli consulate: "Dozens of people brutally arrested tonight outside the Israeli consulate by Brandon Johnson’s thugs defending the genocidal criminals inside the DNC."

Mass arrests at DNC?

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

https://www.instagram.com/p/C-6o7xXxWFR/

3

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

this is from Behind Enemy Lines the organization behind the protest at the israeli consulate: "Dozens of people brutally arrested tonight outside the Israeli consulate by Brandon Johnson’s thugs defending the genocidal criminals inside the DNC."

Mass arrests at DNC?

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

this is from Behind Enemy Lines the organization behind the protest at the israeli consulate: "Dozens of people brutally arrested tonight outside the Israeli consulate by Brandon Johnson’s thugs defending the genocidal criminals inside the DNC."

4

Mass arrests at DNC?

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

the protest in front of the consulate was called: "Shut down the DNC for Gaza!"

0

dreamer

1 month ago

The protest yesterday coincided with the DNC but it was not about protesting the DNC. It is a pro Palestinian protest in opposition to Israeli policies outside the Israeli consulate. Clear cut difference.

Mass arrests at DNC?

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

for the one argouning that yestaday arrest should not count

0

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

the protest of yestarday were organized by Behind Enemy Lines thated call the protest at Israeli consulate: "Shut down the DNC for Gaza!" https://behind-enemy-lines.org/dnc-schedule/

Mass arrests at DNC?

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

the protest of yestarday were organized by Behind Enemy Lines thated call the protest at Israeli consulate: "Shut down the DNC for Gaza!" https://behind-enemy-lines.org/dnc-schedule/

2

Mass arrests at DNC?

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

also the press confernce is callad "DNC Safety and Security Press Conference"

2

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

CPD just said between 55-60 yestarday, plus 13 the other day. he clearly said "arrested" https://www.facebook.com/CityofChicagoOfficial/videos/543955061298816/

Mass arrests at DNC?

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

CPD just said between 55-60 yestarday, plus 13 the other day. he clearly said "arrested" https://www.facebook.com/CityofChicagoOfficial/videos/543955061298816/

2

Mass arrests at DNC?

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

Police department is using "arrested": police department is used arrested: https://www.facebook.com/ChicagoPoliceDepartment/posts/886788346815718?comment_id=1427257341252393

0

n/a

1 month ago

“No” is getting destroyed here, but No can still win for two reasons: (1) news media often conflates “arrests” and “detentions.” We don’t have the arrest numbers from Chicago PD yet, and there is no way to determine arrests vs detentions until those numbers come out. (2) almost all arrests last night happened miles away from the DNC at the Israeli consulate. It’s going to be impossible for Yes to prove that those arrested were individually protesting the DNC as opposed to protesting Israel or the Biden Administration, or trying to influence Kamala Harris. If protestors were detained, not officially arrested, or if there is no public evidence of whether each individual was protesting the DNC instead of protesting Israel, “No” could still win.

Mass arrests at DNC?

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

Chicago police chief clearly says "arrested" in the press conference that should be good enough: https://www.facebook.com/ChicagoPoliceDepartment/posts/886788346815718?comment_id=1427257341252393

1

Mass arrests at DNC?

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

they build up very small position for their bank roll, it looks like more a "let's see where does it go" than a actually "I belive in it"

0

pootytherewardfarmer

1 month ago

When JustKam and aenews bets NO and if this market ends up in dispute, its probably going to resolve to NO. Guess I would need to find a way to dump my positions before its too late!

Will Ukraine hold Kursk through October 31?

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

Russia shown relatively low intrested in retake region and is not really of any strategic value, while on the contrary is probably high value for Ukraine, i do not see a reason why russia will make an effort to retake this

0

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-20-2024

Will Ukraine hold Kursk through October 31?

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-20-2024

0

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

Syrskyi also stated that Ukrainian forces aim to establish a buffer zone in Russian territory to prevent Russian forces from shelling Sumy Oblast and to “outpace” the efforts of the Russian forces at large. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on August 19 that the “preventative defense” of the Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast is the most effective countermeasure against Russian forces

Will Ukraine hold Kursk through October 31?

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

Syrskyi also stated that Ukrainian forces aim to establish a buffer zone in Russian territory to prevent Russian forces from shelling Sumy Oblast and to “outpace” the efforts of the Russian forces at large. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on August 19 that the “preventative defense” of the Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast is the most effective countermeasure against Russian forces

1

Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by Sep 30?

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

there is no outbreak outside africa, the WHO status was just a move to get more money to fight the disease in africa

1

Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by Aug 31?

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

@MichaelBurryd by understanding it is that Clade I is more virulent that does not autatically translate in more efficient human-to-human transmission, but all the data i found are pre-2024 so it may be biased

1

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

the no here is lot undervalue, a couple of thing to take in consideration:

Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by Aug 31?

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

Being Clade 1 worst than Clade 2, it is also more visibile and people are less likely to stay in close contact to sick people

1

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

the no here is lot undervalue, a couple of thing to take in consideration:

Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by Aug 31?

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

In 2022 first cases where in UK, and where pop up by the day, we have just one case in SWE with no case in other countries. Also UK is way more interconnected to USCAN than SWE

1

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

the no here is lot undervalue, a couple of thing to take in consideration:

Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by Aug 31?

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

Clade IIb has shown more efficient human-to-human transmission than Clade I (Monzón et al., 2022).

1

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

the no here is lot undervalue, a couple of thing to take in consideration:

Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by Aug 31?

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

Monkeypox (Mpox) Clade 1 is endemic of the Congo basin, while Clade 2 of west africa, west africa is a way more interconnected to rest of world then the countries in congo basin

1

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

the no here is lot undervalue, a couple of thing to take in consideration:

Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by Aug 31?

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

the outbreak was delected early vs 2022 where it was declered when you had already a cluster in Europe

1

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

the no here is lot undervalue, a couple of thing to take in consideration:

Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by Aug 31?

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

the no here is lot undervalue, a couple of thing to take in consideration:

1

Who will speak at the DNC?

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

why is cuban still 20%?

1

Will Ukraine hold Kursk through October 31?

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

This will give time to AU troups to dig in, October/novermber usally do not see major offensive due to poor weather condition. It is highly likely that russian will wait till winter to conduct major attack in the area

2

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

it seems that russia prefering keeping the momentum in the dombas than retake the territory lost in krusk

Will Ukraine hold Kursk through October 31?

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

it seems that russia prefering keeping the momentum in the dombas than retake the territory lost in krusk

2

Will Ukraine hold Kursk through Aug 31?

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

Ukraine just said that they are targeting the railway line between Moscow and Belgorod to disrupt Russia's logistics in the Donbas, they are not here to kicken out https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-kursk-incursion-we-dont-need-russian-land-2024-08-13/

1

Will Ukraine take the Kursk Nuclear Plant by Aug 31?

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

they may not reach the power plan but the chance are definitely higher than current 9%

3

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

Ukrainian spearheads are 50km for the power plan, Russian forces are struggling to establish the joint command and control structures necessary to coordinate operations and bring in experienced troops https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-12-2024

Will Ukraine take the Kursk Nuclear Plant by Aug 31?

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

Ukrainian spearheads are 50km for the power plan, Russian forces are struggling to establish the joint command and control structures necessary to coordinate operations and bring in experienced troops https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-12-2024

3

Will Ukraine take the Kursk Nuclear Plant by Aug 31?

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

at least we are not 8k down like you, lol

3

n/a

1 month ago

are you going to buy more shares, or are you posting this to get me to sell at a loss? I don't really find this persuasive enough to sell for a loss, so it is up to you to pump your shares higher...

Will Ukraine take the Kursk Nuclear Plant by Aug 31?

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

russia seems to have very low quality trups in the region

2

RadLilDude

1 month ago

Ukraine is sending some of its best troops and equipment to the offensive. Yes is very cheap

Will Ukraine take the Kursk Nuclear Plant by Aug 31?

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

i mean they are close the russian are digging in near the plan https://www.newsweek.com/russia-kursk-nuclear-power-plant-ukraine-raid-advances-1937715

2

Trump gets more black voters in 2024?

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

• The most enthusiastic demographic among Black voters for Harris are Black women; however, they are not the demographic switching to Trump, which is overwhelmingly male.

0

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

THIS A STRONG YES

Trump gets more black voters in 2024?

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

• New polls conducted after Biden's dropout continue to show increased appeal for Trump compared to the 2020 election among the Black voter population.

0

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

Republicans have increased their share of Black voters in the last two election cycles. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/3/18/why-are-black-voters-backing-donald-trump-in-record-numbers

Trump gets more black voters in 2024?

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

• Polls conducted before Biden's dropout consistently showed Trump gaining a bigger share of the Black male vote, driven by concerns over economics, inflation, and dissatisfaction with Biden.

0

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

Republicans have increased their share of Black voters in the last two election cycles. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/3/18/why-are-black-voters-backing-donald-trump-in-record-numbers

Trump gets more black voters in 2024?

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

• The post-Civil Rights movement generation is increasing their share of the vote due to demographic changes.

0

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

Republicans have increased their share of Black voters in the last two election cycles. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/3/18/why-are-black-voters-backing-donald-trump-in-record-numbers

Trump gets more black voters in 2024?

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

@Sardinianshe...• There is a generational divide among Black voters, with the older generation (pre-Civil Rights movement) leaning overwhelmingly Democratic, while the younger generation (post-Civil Rights movement) is more fluid https://www.pewresearch.org/race-and-ethnicity/2024/05/20/an-early-look-at-black-voters-views-on-biden-trump-and-election-2024/

0

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

Republicans have increased their share of Black voters in the last two election cycles. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/3/18/why-are-black-voters-backing-donald-trump-in-record-numbers

Trump gets more black voters in 2024?

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

Republicans have increased their share of Black voters in the last two election cycles. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/3/18/why-are-black-voters-backing-donald-trump-in-record-numbers

0

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

THIS A STRONG YES

Trump gets more black voters in 2024?

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

THIS A STRONG YES

2

Carles Puigdemont arrested in August?

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

it is done: https://www.ft.com/content/ba97c03b-f38d-4dd5-9baf-6314cafd71dd

1

Carles Puigdemont arrested in August?

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/wanted-catalan-separatist-puigdemont-back-belgium-after-avoiding-arrest-spain-2024-08-09/

0

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

His lawyer confirmed that is in Belgium, free money guys

Carles Puigdemont arrested in August?

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

the vehicle used by puigdemont to escape was owned by the police officer, lol

0

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

half of mossos d'esquadra are indepentist, no way they will arrest him

Carles Puigdemont arrested in August?

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

His lawyer confirmed that is in Belgium, free money guys

0

Carles Puigdemont arrested in August?

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

half of mossos d'esquadra are indepentist, no way they will arrest him

0

Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?

Sardinianshepherd

1 month ago

The CCP puppets will not win

0

Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?

Sardinianshepherd

2 months ago

We are soo back

2