gopfan2

Will Putin remain President of Russia through 2024?

gopfan2

1 month ago

could you buy more pls?

1

GretchenWhitmersBasementSlave

1 month ago

Buying just to incentivize this snow ape's ignominious death.

November 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

gopfan2

1 month ago

air includes ocean fyi

0

GodlyAlpha

1 month ago

1.2 to 1.24 is dilulu, ocean is like 1.31 and air is like 1.29

Will Ethereum hit $3,800 by Friday?

gopfan2

1 month ago

thx MarkWalter

1

November 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

gopfan2

1 month ago

It'll most likely be resolved on Dec 9th, for those who are interested

7

Will Russia capture Chasiv Yar before December?

gopfan2

2 months ago

Wow, our troops advanced 30% of what was needed through the previous 2 months. They'll for sure cover and reclaim the remaining 70% in the next 2 weeks. I'm full for this market but glad other No guys can still accept the donation

0

What price will Ethereum hit in November?

gopfan2

2 months ago

u ok? could call mental health care for you if you can't

1

Asta.B.C.

2 months ago

People who are in not able to comprehend what is happening... ETH price has broken big resistance lvl of and is staying above it and it need to retest 3k as support.. if it holds 3k it will quickly move from 3.5 to 4k straight (maybe in less than an hour) bcz there are insane amount of liquidations betweek 3.5 to 4k.. Additionally BTC is still making ATHs and ETH highly corelated to BTC to it will follow it soon after with big jumps to catch up as it did from 2.4k to 3.1k... i not worried at all.. just chill and wait.. its inevitable

Will Russia capture Chasiv Yar before December?

gopfan2

2 months ago

Referring to SvinState as a serious source of information is ridiculous

0

Exeggutorr

2 months ago

Deepstate map updated 4 new Russian Brigades moving to the Frontline of Chasiv Yar for the first time in the past 30 days, with Kurakhov falling and the current offensive in Kursk, this might be a good Yes gamble 10x.

Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?

gopfan2

2 months ago

157M is absolutely unrealistic btw

2

Clenc

2 months ago

If we arrive at a total vote of 157 million (which is realistic and at the same time optimistic), it would take 5.65% to reach 2%

Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?

gopfan2

2 months ago

ofc unless it's some atlas-connected fraud that can't be absolutely excluded given the circumstances

3

Green

2 months ago

8 days after the 2020 election, OTHER was at 1.83%. https://web.archive.org/web/20201111034951/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ In January, by which point this market is gonna be resolved, it got only .08% more https://web.archive.org/web/20210114194545/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ This year, 8 days after the election, its at 1.85%. https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ Is the difference really going to double from 2020? Probably not.

Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?

gopfan2

2 months ago

I won't disclose my calcs but I think you're not correct about 1.95 specifically

1

Green

2 months ago

8 days after the 2020 election, OTHER was at 1.83%. https://web.archive.org/web/20201111034951/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ In January, by which point this market is gonna be resolved, it got only .08% more https://web.archive.org/web/20210114194545/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ This year, 8 days after the election, its at 1.85%. https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ Is the difference really going to double from 2020? Probably not.

Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?

gopfan2

2 months ago

imo it's VERY unlikely it'll end up 2.05. I'd be extremely surprised tbh

1

Green

2 months ago

8 days after the 2020 election, OTHER was at 1.83%. https://web.archive.org/web/20201111034951/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ In January, by which point this market is gonna be resolved, it got only .08% more https://web.archive.org/web/20210114194545/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ This year, 8 days after the election, its at 1.85%. https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ Is the difference really going to double from 2020? Probably not.

Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?

gopfan2

2 months ago

lol I'm thankful that I can buy cheaper because of that manipulation

0

WindWalk2

2 months ago

It seems as though the market has found the revelation from @Mega to be fairly convincing..

Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?

gopfan2

2 months ago

you never share information if you think it's alpha that makes ev. Why people *do* "share" information is to pretend this is alpha to manipulate the price. Prediction markets trading 101

2

WindWalk2

2 months ago

It seems as though the market has found the revelation from @Mega to be fairly convincing..

Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?

gopfan2

2 months ago

yeah, good market manipulation

2

WindWalk2

2 months ago

It seems as though the market has found the revelation from @Mega to be fairly convincing..

Popular Vote Margin of Victory?

gopfan2

2 months ago

Where is DC?

0

RadDiego

2 months ago

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1B7M5ZKA6dWUr6AjwZR1ETR7hlveew9PIyoB3IYOGcAY/edit?usp=drivesdk

Will Trump win Florida by 12+ points?

gopfan2

3 months ago

at most 14% lol

1

figman

3 months ago

Fun and friendly reminder that polls are showing Trump is, at most, 7% ahead of Harris.

Will Russia capture Chasiv Yar before December?

gopfan2

3 months ago

What the hell are you guys doing?

1

Democrats flip a 2020 Trump state?

gopfan2

3 months ago

But generally you're correct, 45 looks about right

0

SafeBets

3 months ago

This should be higher than 39. NC alone is at 40, add a dash of ME-2 and maybe just a pinch of FL, TX or AK and 45+ sounds more reasonable

Democrats flip a 2020 Trump state?

gopfan2

3 months ago

ME-2 doesn't count

0

SafeBets

3 months ago

This should be higher than 39. NC alone is at 40, add a dash of ME-2 and maybe just a pinch of FL, TX or AK and 45+ sounds more reasonable

Will Russia capture Chasiv Yar before December?

gopfan2

3 months ago

I'm always willing to bet against Field Moron Gerasimov

1

Boston1

3 months ago

@gopfan2 why are you a no?

Will Russia capture Vuhledar before October?

gopfan2

3 months ago

you have a typo, correctly 'Khokhlostan'

5

tsybka

3 months ago

In a country called 'Orkastan.'

Global Heat Increase 2024

gopfan2

3 months ago

yeah both should be at 100.0 but nobody cares about such APY so people don't buy. Prices are arbitrary around 100

0

SafeBets

3 months ago

Under 1.22 here is at 1.6 while Over 1.17 in the "2024 hottest year" market is at 95.5. Safe bet or am I missing sth?

Trump wins every swing state?

gopfan2

4 months ago

man, Michigan is 13% to be a tipping point on this very website

0

TrumpFlipsNY2

4 months ago

how tf is this 15% it should be higher it should be a margin of 35% aka the most blue swing state, if trump wins that he wins the rest easily as they are more right leaning then Michigan

Trump wins every swing state?

gopfan2

4 months ago

Tell me you're an idiot without telling me you're an idiot

1

0x4b7ec229f803B6216A88696a08B69eeC33ada6ae-1727295547219

4 months ago

If you break the state by state Polymarket odds down into indivdual money lines and then run it thru a parlay calculator, the payout should be 71 to 1. But you can bet here at 6 to 1???

Will Ukraine hold Kursk through October 31?

gopfan2

4 months ago

Do you have internet access v stoyle now?

1

SlavaUkraini

4 months ago

The special Polymarket operation has been such a complete success the vatniks are building a last stand redoubt inside 90c territory. How long until they're forced to call in artillery strikes on their own positions?

2024 September hottest on record?

gopfan2

4 months ago

Meaning we're very far from reaching AGI

8

wyn

4 months ago

Chat gpt states there is a 20%-25% chance September is the hottest on record. "Yes, it does help September 2024's chances that August 2024 was record-breaking in terms of global temperatures. When a month experiences unprecedented heat, it often signals that the factors driving that heat—like El Niño, greenhouse gas emissions, and other climate variables—are still in play. This can increase the likelihood of subsequent months being similarly warm, although it doesn't guarantee consecutive records. Given that August 2024 was reportedly record-breaking, this momentum could push the odds for a hotter-than-average September higher than what the Polymarket odds suggest. However, as with any climate predictions, the variability from regional weather patterns and potential cooling influences (e.g., a delayed La Niña) could moderate these effects( Climate.gov ). Considering this, the odds might justifiably rise to 20-25%, factoring in both the record-breaking summer temperatures and the potential for continued warmth into the fall." p.s. I will buy more yes so feel free to sell!

2024 August hottest on record?

gopfan2

4 months ago

I wouldn't speak with a gentleman posting this (https://x.com/EliotJacobson/status/1829144642975347049)

1

OmenOfLord

4 months ago

Also, it's very important to note that the transition away from El Nino may have begun already. This means the Ocean Temps should come in lower than in 2023, as El Nina's are cooler. I did switch my position entirely on this, so I have a large confidence. I also spoke to Eliot Jacobson and he confirmed that

2024 August hottest on record?

gopfan2

5 months ago

I will wait for you in Chertanovskiy District court

2

aenews2

5 months ago

I'd like to sue for copyright infringement

Will Russia capture Chasiv Yar before October?

gopfan2

5 months ago

@truce I will donate some money won from you to help our soldiers on SVO

4