gopfan2

BSW wins 5% or more of vote in German election?

gopfan2

3 months ago

You're retarded right?

5

rugpuller

3 months ago

Over 250,000 voters were unable to cast their vote 213,000 of them were Germans living abroad, while another 30,000 to 40,000 faced other obstacles. If we do the math, BSW is currently missing 13,000 votes. Five percent of the 250,000 uncounted votes would amount to 12,500 very close to the threshold. This COULD be enough to justify new elections.

Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?

gopfan2

3 months ago

They'll forget to ask khokhols, as usually

0

Intendant-Jean-Talon

3 months ago

Trump saying Ukraine started the war some people here still thinks that he has credibility to make a deal that Ukraine will accept?

Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?

gopfan2

4 months ago

If those Europeans are as stupid as you, reverse wealth transfer would shortly occur

0

Ernis

4 months ago

This market will be a wealth transfer from Americans to Europeans. People don't realise not *everything* resolves around the US. This war will continue as long as Putin can continue annexing territories, and there isn't one thing that can cripple the aggressor in 83 days.

Ukraine lowers conscription age before May 9?

gopfan2

4 months ago

Khokhla sprosit zabyli

6

dimmas

4 months ago

As a resident of Ukraine, I would like to say that there will be 100% no reduction in the draft age, this issue is not even being discussed, and there is not a single politician or military officer in Ukraine who would propose this. The Ukrainian press says that Zelensky is preparing a decree that proposes to pay 500,000 hryvnias each to men between the ages of 18 and 24 for voluntarily signing a contract. They will serve only 12 months. For all those over 25, the mobilization rules will not change and the draft age will not change. Now men aged 18 and older can also join the army, but they are not paid for signing a contract. Any claims about the lowering of the draft age in Ukraine are simply Russian propaganda.

Will Putin remain President of Russia through 2024?

gopfan2

6 months ago

could you buy more pls?

1

GretchenWhitmersBasementSlave

6 months ago

Buying just to incentivize this snow ape's ignominious death.

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?

gopfan2

6 months ago

He's statistically better than an average 85 yo. We know he's capable of coherently speaking in public, which is not the case for a fairly big chunk of 85 yos

1

AA42

6 months ago

No is retardedly underpriced, tempted to add more money to this site... It is absolutely impossible for Israel to take him out. There are 15 minute video compilations of Iranian missiles hitting Israel in tight groupings. It is a fact that Iran can hit anywhere in Israel, Israel knows this and is why they refuse to touch Iranian infrastructure, because if they do Iran will hit their desalination and power plants and anyone who can leave Israel will leave. It genuinely is an existential threat which they will definitely not provide.

November 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

gopfan2

6 months ago

air includes ocean fyi

0

GodlyAlpha

6 months ago

1.2 to 1.24 is dilulu, ocean is like 1.31 and air is like 1.29

Will Ethereum hit $3,800 by Friday?

gopfan2

6 months ago

thx MarkWalter

1

November 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

gopfan2

6 months ago

It'll most likely be resolved on Dec 9th, for those who are interested

7

Will Russia capture Chasiv Yar before December?

gopfan2

7 months ago

Wow, our troops advanced 30% of what was needed through the previous 2 months. They'll for sure cover and reclaim the remaining 70% in the next 2 weeks. I'm full for this market but glad other No guys can still accept the donation

0

What price will Ethereum hit in November?

gopfan2

7 months ago

u ok? could call mental health care for you if you can't

1

Boss.car

7 months ago

People who are in not able to comprehend what is happening... ETH price has broken big resistance lvl of and is staying above it and it need to retest 3k as support.. if it holds 3k it will quickly move from 3.5 to 4k straight (maybe in less than an hour) bcz there are insane amount of liquidations betweek 3.5 to 4k.. Additionally BTC is still making ATHs and ETH highly corelated to BTC to it will follow it soon after with big jumps to catch up as it did from 2.4k to 3.1k... i not worried at all.. just chill and wait.. its inevitable

Will Russia capture Chasiv Yar before December?

gopfan2

7 months ago

Referring to SvinState as a serious source of information is ridiculous

0

Exeggut

7 months ago

Deepstate map updated 4 new Russian Brigades moving to the Frontline of Chasiv Yar for the first time in the past 30 days, with Kurakhov falling and the current offensive in Kursk, this might be a good Yes gamble 10x.

Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?

gopfan2

7 months ago

157M is absolutely unrealistic btw

2

Clenc

7 months ago

If we arrive at a total vote of 157 million (which is realistic and at the same time optimistic), it would take 5.65% to reach 2%

Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?

gopfan2

7 months ago

ofc unless it's some atlas-connected fraud that can't be absolutely excluded given the circumstances

3

Green

7 months ago

8 days after the 2020 election, OTHER was at 1.83%. https://web.archive.org/web/20201111034951/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ In January, by which point this market is gonna be resolved, it got only .08% more https://web.archive.org/web/20210114194545/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ This year, 8 days after the election, its at 1.85%. https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ Is the difference really going to double from 2020? Probably not.

Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?

gopfan2

7 months ago

I won't disclose my calcs but I think you're not correct about 1.95 specifically

1

Green

7 months ago

8 days after the 2020 election, OTHER was at 1.83%. https://web.archive.org/web/20201111034951/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ In January, by which point this market is gonna be resolved, it got only .08% more https://web.archive.org/web/20210114194545/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ This year, 8 days after the election, its at 1.85%. https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ Is the difference really going to double from 2020? Probably not.

Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?

gopfan2

7 months ago

imo it's VERY unlikely it'll end up 2.05. I'd be extremely surprised tbh

1

Green

7 months ago

8 days after the 2020 election, OTHER was at 1.83%. https://web.archive.org/web/20201111034951/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ In January, by which point this market is gonna be resolved, it got only .08% more https://web.archive.org/web/20210114194545/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ This year, 8 days after the election, its at 1.85%. https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ Is the difference really going to double from 2020? Probably not.

Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?

gopfan2

7 months ago

lol I'm thankful that I can buy cheaper because of that manipulation

0

WindWalk2

7 months ago

It seems as though the market has found the revelation from @Mega to be fairly convincing..

Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?

gopfan2

7 months ago

you never share information if you think it's alpha that makes ev. Why people *do* "share" information is to pretend this is alpha to manipulate the price. Prediction markets trading 101

2

WindWalk2

7 months ago

It seems as though the market has found the revelation from @Mega to be fairly convincing..

Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?

gopfan2

7 months ago

yeah, good market manipulation

2

WindWalk2

7 months ago

It seems as though the market has found the revelation from @Mega to be fairly convincing..

Popular Vote Margin of Victory?

gopfan2

7 months ago

Where is DC?

0

RadDiego

7 months ago

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1B7M5ZKA6dWUr6AjwZR1ETR7hlveew9PIyoB3IYOGcAY/edit?usp=drivesdk

Will Trump win Florida by 12+ points?

gopfan2

7 months ago

at most 14% lol

1

figman

7 months ago

Fun and friendly reminder that polls are showing Trump is, at most, 7% ahead of Harris.

Will Russia capture Chasiv Yar before December?

gopfan2

7 months ago

What the hell are you guys doing?

1

Democrats flip a 2020 Trump state?

gopfan2

8 months ago

But generally you're correct, 45 looks about right

0

ImHereForTheRewards

8 months ago

This should be higher than 39. NC alone is at 40, add a dash of ME-2 and maybe just a pinch of FL, TX or AK and 45+ sounds more reasonable

Democrats flip a 2020 Trump state?

gopfan2

8 months ago

ME-2 doesn't count

0

ImHereForTheRewards

8 months ago

This should be higher than 39. NC alone is at 40, add a dash of ME-2 and maybe just a pinch of FL, TX or AK and 45+ sounds more reasonable

Will Russia capture Chasiv Yar before December?

gopfan2

8 months ago

I'm always willing to bet against Field Moron Gerasimov

1

Boston1

8 months ago

@gopfan2 why are you a no?

Will Russia capture Vuhledar before October?

gopfan2

8 months ago

you have a typo, correctly 'Khokhlostan'

5

tsybka

8 months ago

In a country called 'Orkastan.'

Global Heat Increase 2024

gopfan2

8 months ago

yeah both should be at 100.0 but nobody cares about such APY so people don't buy. Prices are arbitrary around 100

0

ImHereForTheRewards

8 months ago

Under 1.22 here is at 1.6 while Over 1.17 in the "2024 hottest year" market is at 95.5. Safe bet or am I missing sth?

Trump wins every swing state?

gopfan2

8 months ago

man, Michigan is 13% to be a tipping point on this very website

0

TrumpFlipsNY2

8 months ago

how tf is this 15% it should be higher it should be a margin of 35% aka the most blue swing state, if trump wins that he wins the rest easily as they are more right leaning then Michigan

Trump wins every swing state?

gopfan2

8 months ago

Tell me you're an idiot without telling me you're an idiot

1

0x4b7ec229f803B6216A88696a08B69eeC33ada6ae-1727295547219

8 months ago

If you break the state by state Polymarket odds down into indivdual money lines and then run it thru a parlay calculator, the payout should be 71 to 1. But you can bet here at 6 to 1???

Will Ukraine hold Kursk through October 31?

gopfan2

9 months ago

Do you have internet access v stoyle now?

1

SlavaUkraini

9 months ago

The special Polymarket operation has been such a complete success the vatniks are building a last stand redoubt inside 90c territory. How long until they're forced to call in artillery strikes on their own positions?

2024 September hottest on record?

gopfan2

9 months ago

Meaning we're very far from reaching AGI

8

wyn

9 months ago

Chat gpt states there is a 20%-25% chance September is the hottest on record. "Yes, it does help September 2024's chances that August 2024 was record-breaking in terms of global temperatures. When a month experiences unprecedented heat, it often signals that the factors driving that heat—like El Niño, greenhouse gas emissions, and other climate variables—are still in play. This can increase the likelihood of subsequent months being similarly warm, although it doesn't guarantee consecutive records. Given that August 2024 was reportedly record-breaking, this momentum could push the odds for a hotter-than-average September higher than what the Polymarket odds suggest. However, as with any climate predictions, the variability from regional weather patterns and potential cooling influences (e.g., a delayed La Niña) could moderate these effects( Climate.gov ). Considering this, the odds might justifiably rise to 20-25%, factoring in both the record-breaking summer temperatures and the potential for continued warmth into the fall." p.s. I will buy more yes so feel free to sell!

2024 August hottest on record?

gopfan2

9 months ago

I wouldn't speak with a gentleman posting this (https://x.com/EliotJacobson/status/1829144642975347049)

1

OmenOfLord

9 months ago

Also, it's very important to note that the transition away from El Nino may have begun already. This means the Ocean Temps should come in lower than in 2023, as El Nina's are cooler. I did switch my position entirely on this, so I have a large confidence. I also spoke to Eliot Jacobson and he confirmed that

2024 August hottest on record?

gopfan2

9 months ago

I will wait for you in Chertanovskiy District court

2

aenews2

9 months ago

I'd like to sue for copyright infringement

Will Russia capture Chasiv Yar before October?

gopfan2

9 months ago

@truce I will donate some money won from you to help our soldiers on SVO

4