Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

3 days ago

Congrats, to the bros who are now all but on the verge of victory, after one out of the two big whales went No. I'm going to continue to make the case publicly for yes based on the evidence.

4

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

3 days ago

The suspense here on the vote is killing me...

5

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

4 days ago

In this case, the evidence for an invasion has been growing steadily since September 30th.

0

BigMike11

4 days ago

Look. If we find a video of Trump saying "mog" a month ago, nobody would hesitate to use it to resolve the "Has Trump said mog?" market simply because it came before the the last P4 vote.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

4 days ago

Look. If we find a video of Trump saying "mog" a month ago, nobody would hesitate to use it to resolve the "Has Trump said mog?" market simply because it came before the the last P4 vote.

0

Car

4 days ago

Voting P4 1 hour before deadline, then voting P2 YES 6 days after deadline, using information from after the deadline, is something UMA has never done before.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

4 days ago

look, let me make the argument simple here. The timing of the offensive is not really a question here. There are a dozen high quality sources that say September 30th. And the Israeli motive of the offensive is also not in question -- the November market resolved Yes. So, WTF are you even arguing?

0

tsybka

4 days ago

100% NO!

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

4 days ago

no one is asking Uma to "disregard deadlines". Stop trying to trick Uma into disregarding evidence that does not match your No position.

4

Car

4 days ago

UMA should obey the rules and not disregard deadlines.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

4 days ago

Based on what exactly? The evidence here is not even subtle.

0

tsybka

4 days ago

100% NO!

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

4 days ago

For sure we will. The evidence is pretty clear. https://x.com/TradeandMoney/status/1842809054273700215

2

Kobafix

4 days ago

The fun Part ist they will Scream "SCAAAM" once uma voted for no

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

4 days ago

How so? The offensive began on September 30th.

1

NIGGA

4 days ago

The yes team trying to scam this market is crazy

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

4 days ago

What's more. The testimony from the Commander on September 30th contradicts your assessment. They clearly state on the 30th they crossed the border to invade.

0

BigMike11

4 days ago

The rules ask about: Israel "commences a military offensive". The Wall Street Journal, the Washington Post, the Nytimes, as well as the Jerusalem Post article all state that the offensive commenced on September 30th. You are saying the motivation, detailed by the Israeli Commander two weeks before, changed in the space of a few hours?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

4 days ago

The rules ask about: Israel "commences a military offensive". The Wall Street Journal, the Washington Post, the Nytimes, as well as the Jerusalem Post article all state that the offensive commenced on September 30th. You are saying the motivation, detailed by the Israeli Commander two weeks before, changed in the space of a few hours?

0

n/a

4 days ago

Thoughts of a No Holder: in isolation the September actions could only me counted as entered and limited raids, all sources of wester media with headline invasion quoting that as source. Only due to subsequent October 2nd actions there is even a question of September Invasion. In a parallel world were October actions would not have followed September would already be at No. Thoughts of a Yes holder: but November resolved to YES...

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

4 days ago

^Was referring to @JustKen

0

BigMike11

4 days ago

even if you lose this one, I'll concede: you're still hands-down the best trader here.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

4 days ago

even if you lose this one, I'll concede: you're still hands-down the best trader here.

1

🤺JustKen

4 days ago

The calm before the storm. Our time in this market is drawing to a close, and I am glad that everyone has remained cordial and friends.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

4 days ago

Hours after it began, Arabic sources recorded tanks in Lebanon.

0

BigMike11

4 days ago

Did you see this point-blank eye-witness testimony from an Israeli commander on September 30th that the invasion had commenced? https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-821158

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

4 days ago

Did you see this point-blank eye-witness testimony from an Israeli commander on September 30th that the invasion had commenced? https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-821158

0

n/a

4 days ago

Thoughts of a No Holder: in isolation the September actions could only me counted as entered and limited raids, all sources of wester media with headline invasion quoting that as source. Only due to subsequent October 2nd actions there is even a question of September Invasion. In a parallel world were October actions would not have followed September would already be at No. Thoughts of a Yes holder: but November resolved to YES...

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

4 days ago

Absolutely. Everyone who has participated in a prediction market has tried to shill their bags, or at least participated in motivated reasoning when arguing their case. I don't judge it.

4

RBvKrsr7ZfRK

4 days ago

i love you even tho you tried to rig it

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

4 days ago

Just curious, what is your logic for No?

1

tsybka

4 days ago

NO!

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

4 days ago

Suffice to say, that doesn't make any sense. For one, the name "Operation Northern Arrow" is the same. There is no evidence these are different operations.

2

BigMike11

4 days ago

All arguments for No here are procedural arguments (e.g., this should be no because the previous vote, when the fog of war made it unclear what was happening, was a "too soon".) The non-procedural argument seems to be that the incursion the IDF started Monday night, and for which they stated they prepared for months for, is not the same invasion as the one that started Tuesday morning.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

4 days ago

All arguments for No here are procedural arguments (e.g., this should be no because the previous vote, when the fog of war made it unclear what was happening, was a "too soon".) The non-procedural argument seems to be that the incursion the IDF started Monday night, and for which they stated they prepared for months for, is not the same invasion as the one that started Tuesday morning.

3

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

4 days ago

If you liked No on this market at 50, you should *love* it at 30, no?

10

·

Liked by , and 14 others

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

4 days ago

Imagine we get good evidence tomorrow that Trump said "mog" six weeks ago. A video surfaces that no one saw during the last P4 decision. Nobody would argue we ignore that evidence simply because it came out before the last P4 decision. The only difference here is some old time users bought No shares in this case before doing any research.

24

·

Liked by chad, n/a and 22 others

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

4 days ago

Reminder: the invasion still started Monday.

6

predictable

4 days ago

Thanks for free money sheeps

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

4 days ago

This market is like stepping on baby chickens.

4

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

4 days ago

Or is it also that we should throw out all evidence for yes based on a one-time technicality that will obviously not be followed for any other market?

3

BigMike11

4 days ago

Just waking up here. Is Team No's argument still that the offensive which commenced Monday night is not the same one that continued Tuesday morning, based on zero evidence whatsoever?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

4 days ago

Just waking up here. Is Team No's argument still that the offensive which commenced Monday night is not the same one that continued Tuesday morning, based on zero evidence whatsoever?

19

·

Liked by chad, n/a and 17 others

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

4 days ago

Fog of war. The evidence on Israel's motive was still emerging.

1

Caution

4 days ago

"Invade before November" which proposed on Oct 2nd 5am ET is voted as "too early". But now latest evidences are used to resolve "invade in September". It is easy to be wise after the event.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

5 days ago

It's saturday night, time to hang out with wifey. To all the No bros out there, good luck pumping your horrendous bags while I sleep.

3

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

5 days ago

Their main argument is that we should ignore all evidence for yes bc this previously resolved P4. But, that doesn't follow. If someone were to find new evidence that Trump said "mog" a month ago, it doesn't mean that the "Did Trump Say mog market shouldn't resolve yes just because it was already ruled "too early" on the last go around.

3

n/a

5 days ago

They think the Israelis went over for pickup softball games

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

5 days ago

No bros, save your money. This is a wrap. What are you guys even arguing here? We have all kinds of evidence the ground invasion began on September 30th. And the Israeli Commander of the North himself said of the motive: "Gordin, according to the Israel Hayom daily, has recommended in recent closed-door meetings that the IDF be given the green light to seize and occupy a buffer zone in southern Lebanon."

16

·

Liked by n/a, n/a and 14 others

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

5 days ago

Look, pumping the No price rather than making sound arguments is a strategy. But, maybe not the best one?

15

·

Liked by n/a, n/a and 13 others

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

5 days ago

Wall Street Journal: "ahead of a broader ground incursion that began Monday night" https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israel-sends-troops-into-lebanon-escalating-fight-against-hezbollah-1dbcee03?mod=article_inline

0

n/a

5 days ago

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September? Generating... Israel has launched a ground offensive in southern Lebanon, marking a significant escalation in the Israel-Hezbollah conflict. Beginning on October 1, 2024, Israeli troops crossed the border into Lebanon in a series of small-scale raids, targeting Hezbollah's infrastructure and leadership. This operation follows intense airstrikes and the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah on September 27. The Israeli military has declared parts of the northern border as closed military zones, and the Lebanese Armed Forces have withdrawn from the border area. The invasion has resulted in significant civilian casualties and displacement, with over 1,000 Lebanese fatalities and approximately one million people displaced. POWERED BY Perplexity

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

5 days ago

We've got dozens of time-stamped sources that say yes.

1

giorey

5 days ago

The real question is: did Israeli forces enter Lebanon before midnight on Monday? All news agencies are saying "early hours of Tuesday" but it is unclear if they mean local time for them or for the forces in Israel or Eastern Time. I believe that the forces entered after midnight Eastern Time which would result in a "No"

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

5 days ago

FYI, late Monday night was in September.

4

BigMike11

5 days ago

Your friendly reminder that: "The IDF's invasion of southern Lebanon late Monday night was led by Division 98 and its commander, Brig. Gen. Guy Levi"... "Egoz Commander Lt. Col. "A" told the troops right before going in, "We have a great honor to write history in the North just like we did in Gaza. We started with lower-grade operations, but today, we are starting a more substantial invasion in order to return the northern residents to their homes. This is a substantial matter because we have not invaded Lebanon since 2006." https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-821158

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

5 days ago

Your friendly reminder that: "The IDF's invasion of southern Lebanon late Monday night was led by Division 98 and its commander, Brig. Gen. Guy Levi"... "Egoz Commander Lt. Col. "A" told the troops right before going in, "We have a great honor to write history in the North just like we did in Gaza. We started with lower-grade operations, but today, we are starting a more substantial invasion in order to return the northern residents to their homes. This is a substantial matter because we have not invaded Lebanon since 2006." https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-821158

17

·

Liked by n/a, n/a and 15 others

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

5 days ago

Your argument is that it's not an invasion. Why wouldn't this logic apply to the November market as well?

0

Car

5 days ago

Your friendly reminder from even better good guy Car that UMA is extremely likely to vote No on this, and that the price continues to be insane.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

5 days ago

Just curious, what is your logic? Is it the same bad logic you wrote on Uma? "@domah cites two sources saying they had not seen any Israelis in Lebanon before October 1st – but we have already been through this. This is contradicted by (1) the linked evidence I presented above, (2) Uma’s previous ruling, overwhelmingly, that the IDF entry into Lebanon commenced in September, and (3) I’ve cited several other sources from within Hezbollah that confirm the IDF was in Lebanon in September. https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/fierce-hezbollah-resistance-ground-israel-says-lebanon-offensive-last-weeks

0

🤺JustKen

5 days ago

Your friendly reminder from good guy Domer that UMA is extremely likely to vote No on this, and that the price continues to be insane.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

5 days ago

The argument for No is that all of the evidence for yes should be dismissed on a technicality No holders made up..

0

BigMike11

5 days ago

@realbatman you may consider having a look at the evidence before making additional purchases. E.g., "The IDF's invasion of southern Lebanon late Monday night was led by Division 98 and its commander, Brig. Gen. Guy Levi"...

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

5 days ago

The original motives for the invasion were this: “Israel’s top general commanding the restive northern frontier has reportedly begun actively lobbying leaders to okay a ground offensive into southern Lebanon with the goal of securing a buffer zone…” Creating a buffer zone to allow Israeli citizens in the north to return to their homes is a nice way of saying the goal is control. https://www.timesofisrael.com/top-general-said-pushing-for-ground-incursion-to-create-south-lebanon-buffer-zone/

0

BigMike11

5 days ago

@realbatman you may consider having a look at the evidence before making additional purchases. E.g., "The IDF's invasion of southern Lebanon late Monday night was led by Division 98 and its commander, Brig. Gen. Guy Levi"...

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

5 days ago

"The purpose of the limited ground maneuver: high operational control in the field". https://news-walla-co-il.translate.goog/item/3695334?_x_tr_sl=iw&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=sc

0

BigMike11

5 days ago

"Egoz Commander Lt. Col. "A" told the troops right before going in, "We have a great honor to write history in the North just like we did in Gaza. We started with lower-grade operations, but today, we are starting a more substantial invasion in order to return the northern residents to their homes. This is a substantial matter because we have not invaded Lebanon since 2006." https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-821158

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

5 days ago

Independent sources, such as the Nytimes, are continuing to refer to this ground offensive as an “invasion”. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/04/world/middleeast/israel-hezbollah-lebanon.html

0

BigMike11

5 days ago

"Egoz Commander Lt. Col. "A" told the troops right before going in, "We have a great honor to write history in the North just like we did in Gaza. We started with lower-grade operations, but today, we are starting a more substantial invasion in order to return the northern residents to their homes. This is a substantial matter because we have not invaded Lebanon since 2006." https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-821158

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

5 days ago

"Egoz Commander Lt. Col. "A" told the troops right before going in, "We have a great honor to write history in the North just like we did in Gaza. We started with lower-grade operations, but today, we are starting a more substantial invasion in order to return the northern residents to their homes. This is a substantial matter because we have not invaded Lebanon since 2006." https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-821158

0

BigMike11

5 days ago

@realbatman you may consider having a look at the evidence before making additional purchases. E.g., "The IDF's invasion of southern Lebanon late Monday night was led by Division 98 and its commander, Brig. Gen. Guy Levi"...

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

5 days ago

@realbatman you may consider having a look at the evidence before making additional purchases. E.g., "The IDF's invasion of southern Lebanon late Monday night was led by Division 98 and its commander, Brig. Gen. Guy Levi"...

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

5 days ago

"The purpose of the limited ground maneuver: high operational control in the field". https://news-walla-co-il.translate.goog/item/3695334?_x_tr_sl=iw&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=sc

0

FamilyCapital

5 days ago

Israel get into Lebanon village for at least 2 days, UMA: "Israel intent to control part of Lebanon"

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

5 days ago

Interesting, what is your argument for No?

0

therealbatman

5 days ago

A guy who was willing to lose $3m on a single market just bought 70k worth of No. I think this is bullish signal.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

5 days ago

P1 go for the ole' "Let's ignore all arguments for yes on a technicality". What they don't do is discuss or debate the evidence cited.

1

PolyRig-Fried

5 days ago

Guys educate yourself, the comment section on UMA is interesting: p2 (yes) always has arguments and cites sources, p1 (no) never cites sources, just blank statements with no sources. Hence no quorum ever turned to p1, only p2 and p4: https://vote.uma.xyz/past-votes

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

5 days ago

I do not. I think they will go for eye-witness testimony though. https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-821158

1

Car

5 days ago

Dont be so silly, YES holders. You really think UMA falls for your little games?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

5 days ago

I think this is a good point. It was kind of unclear what Israel's intentions were. However, as I've read more I think it's clear. It was only Thursday that Lebanon called this ground offensive an invasion. Going back, I've found links of the initial arguments to invade by the IDF general in the north, and it was arguing for Israel to establish a neutral zone by force. “Israel’s top general commanding the restive northern frontier has reportedly begun actively lobbying leaders to okay a ground offensive into southern Lebanon with the goal of securing a buffer zone…” Creating a buffer zone to allow Israeli citizens in the north to return to their homes is a nice way of saying the goal is to control southern Lebanon. https://www.timesofisrael.com/top-general-said-pushing-for-ground-incursion-to-create-south-lebanon-buffer-zone/

1

Car

5 days ago

theres a reason they made 2 markets. One for them entering, one for invading with intention to control regions. The "intended to establish control over any portion" is not proven. Not at 30 sep and not now.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

5 days ago

I see the argument for No know: "all arguments for yes should be thrown out on a technicality". I don't think Uma is going to be hoodwinked that easily. You have no substantive arguments for No. We yes bros have endless high-quality sources suggesting the invasion began in September.

23

·

Liked by n/a, n/a and 21 others

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

5 days ago

Essentially, you are arguing that all evidence for yes should be thrown out on a technicality, but you don't have any other substantive opinions for No.

1

n/a

5 days ago

Only confidence YES holders have, a November resolved and Chad bought so let's buy more.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

5 days ago

This exactly. Israel was saying at first it was just a "limited" invasion. People were arguing originally that there were "no tanks yet". But now we know there were tanks. Given that intent was an important part of this market, waiting to judge always made sense. If not, it should have just resolved No originally.

0

n/a

5 days ago

The consistency argument is all you guys have, and it’s made in such bad faith. Despite having 160k Yes shares, I advocated for « too early » last time because I literally believed it was too early to judge the intent of Israel. Now the intent is clear. There is no contradiction voting P4 and then P2. There is however contradiction voting P2 November and P1 September if you can’t come up with a credible invasion date.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

5 days ago

Also, the article was updated after the original market was proposed.

0

0x36F72D43e1e4Adaa92D928C029a9486771a79b0a-1723737025744

5 days ago

If UMA is not biased, it should be consistent with its previous P4 result. If it’s rigged, the main additional yes buyer is Chad, who obviously didn’t have enough votes in UMA

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

5 days ago

so, in other words, you don't dispute this as valid evidence?

0

BigMike11

5 days ago

What is your honest opinion of this evidence: https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-821158

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

5 days ago

What is your argument Car? Yes holders are providing links with explicit evidence for yes.

8

Car

5 days ago

UMA is not voting in favor of scams. Because that would make UMA itself a scam.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

5 days ago

What is your honest opinion of this evidence: https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-821158

0

0x36F72D43e1e4Adaa92D928C029a9486771a79b0a-1723737025744

5 days ago

If UMA is not biased, it should be consistent with its previous P4 result. If it’s rigged, the main additional yes buyer is Chad, who obviously didn’t have enough votes in UMA

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

5 days ago

You could have argued the motive of this offensive was not control, but the November ruling makes that a tough call.

0

BigMike11

5 days ago

One could also argue, if Uma is consistent, this market must resolve the same way as the November market, given that the ground offensive began in September.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

5 days ago

One could also argue, if Uma is consistent, this market must resolve the same way as the November market, given that the ground offensive began in September.

0

0x36F72D43e1e4Adaa92D928C029a9486771a79b0a-1723737025744

5 days ago

If UMA is not biased, it should be consistent with its previous P4 result. If it’s rigged, the main additional yes buyer is Chad, who obviously didn’t have enough votes in UMA

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

5 days ago

https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-821158

1

BigMike11

5 days ago

"The IDF's invasion of southern Lebanon late Monday night was led by Division 98 and its commander, Brig. Gen. Guy Levi, who also led the commando unit, the Egoz special forces unit, the paratroopers, and Brigade 7 of the Tank Corp." Reminder: Monday was September 30th.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

5 days ago

"The IDF's invasion of southern Lebanon late Monday night was led by Division 98 and its commander, Brig. Gen. Guy Levi, who also led the commando unit, the Egoz special forces unit, the paratroopers, and Brigade 7 of the Tank Corp." Reminder: Monday was September 30th.

3

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

5 days ago

There is absolutely no real argument. I believe they are being mostly disengenuous. It doesn't necessarily mean they won't win -- a bunch of insiders are on no. But there is a mountain of clear evidence the ground offensive started in September.

2

n/a

5 days ago

I’m very new at this but see this as a pretty sure bet considering November is resolving yes. Was is the argument for those holding no?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

5 days ago

for full disclosure, I don't know that much about how Uma works, and what role some insiders have in fixing decisions. I just bet yes b/c, in my view, the evidence for a September invasion is clear.

0

BigMike11

5 days ago

I don't understand No holders argument here, even after reading your disengenuous Uma comments. There are at least a dozen high quality sources that say the ground offensive began in September.https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-821158

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

5 days ago

The Wall street journal also reported September 30th.

1

BigMike11

5 days ago

Here is the Washington Post: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/09/30/israel-lebanon-hezbollah-hamas-war-news-gaza/

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

5 days ago

Here is the Washington Post: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/09/30/israel-lebanon-hezbollah-hamas-war-news-gaza/

2

BigMike11

5 days ago

I don't understand No holders argument here, even after reading your disengenuous Uma comments. There are at least a dozen high quality sources that say the ground offensive began in September.https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-821158

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

5 days ago

I don't understand No holders argument here, even after reading your disengenuous Uma comments. There are at least a dozen high quality sources that say the ground offensive began in September.https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-821158

4

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

1 week ago

what do you think about the several dozen credible sources, photos, and videos that show the IDF entered in September?

1

informed

1 week ago

This market claims that Israel entered Lebanon before IDF confirmed they entered Lebanon on 30th September? Smells like pathethic manipulation that cannot hold for much longer. Israel entering Lebanon is historical fact that is not decided in some discord channel backed by couple of millions of scammer capital. NFA

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

1 week ago

Why though? Multiple credible sources, Israeli, neutral, and from Hezbollah, Lebanon, and Arabic sources all say Israel entered in September. Why should they comp you for ignoring this mountain of evidence?

0

zynyz

1 week ago

No holders: message Polymarket support now, vote needs to be redone regardless of outcome - Send support this proof: https://i.imgur.com/8zb4ofV.png The commit-reveal scheme is designed to keep votes confidential during the commit phase to prevent influence or manipulation by other participants. Sharing your vote publicly and writing "just follow me u will be fine" before the reveal phase undermines this confidentiality and compromise the integrity of the voting process.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

1 week ago

Israeli sources state plainly that the motive is "Operational Control". "The purpose of the limited ground maneuver: high operational control in the field". https://news-walla-co-il.translate.goog/item/3695334?_x_tr_sl=iw&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=sc

0

BigMike11

1 week ago

Pretty clear they invaded though. "The IDF's invasion of southern Lebanon late Monday night was led by Division 98 and its commander, Brig. Gen. Guy Levi... "Arabic media such as Al-Jazeera and MTV Lebanon claimed that IDF tanks had entered multiple villages in southern Lebanon shortly after initial reports of the ground invasion." https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-821158

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

1 week ago

Pretty clear they invaded though. "The IDF's invasion of southern Lebanon late Monday night was led by Division 98 and its commander, Brig. Gen. Guy Levi... "Arabic media such as Al-Jazeera and MTV Lebanon claimed that IDF tanks had entered multiple villages in southern Lebanon shortly after initial reports of the ground invasion." https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-821158

2

Amok

1 week ago

Told you this was gonna go NO. There was a separate market for Israeli forces entering Lebanon. The key wording here is "establish control". The limited special forces / scouting raids in the early morning of Oct 1 don't qualify, because they never established control. Those forces pulled back out.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

1 week ago

There's one. "The IDF's invasion of southern Lebanon late Monday night was led by Division 98 and its commander, Brig. Gen. Guy Levi"...https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-821158

1

BigMike11

1 week ago

Sources within Hezbollah are also confirming an invasion. “We’ll have to see how the ground invasion unfolds. But – according to a source with ties to Hezbollah – the Israelis did meet fierce resistance in the late hours of last night. It does appear this is not going to be an easy battle for Israel, even if Hezbollah has lost its leader and senior military commanders. That still leaves Hezbollah to be a formidable foe to inflict heavy costs on the Israelis in their ground invasion.” https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/fierce-hezbollah-resistance-ground-israel-says-lebanon-offensive-last-weeks

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

1 week ago

Sources within Hezbollah are also confirming an invasion. “We’ll have to see how the ground invasion unfolds. But – according to a source with ties to Hezbollah – the Israelis did meet fierce resistance in the late hours of last night. It does appear this is not going to be an easy battle for Israel, even if Hezbollah has lost its leader and senior military commanders. That still leaves Hezbollah to be a formidable foe to inflict heavy costs on the Israelis in their ground invasion.” https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/fierce-hezbollah-resistance-ground-israel-says-lebanon-offensive-last-weeks

0

BigMike11

1 week ago

Stick a fork in this one bros. Save your money. There is endless evidence from all parties. From Hezbollah. From Arabic media. From the Israeli ground commanders who invaded. There is all kinds of evidence. Hezbollah doesn't say no invasion, they say the invasion was repelled and the IDF will find it very tough.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

1 week ago

Stick a fork in this one bros. Save your money. There is endless evidence from all parties. From Hezbollah. From Arabic media. From the Israeli ground commanders who invaded. There is all kinds of evidence. Hezbollah doesn't say no invasion, they say the invasion was repelled and the IDF will find it very tough.

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

1 week ago

Guys, "limited, localized, and targeted" doesn't mean no invasion. The invasion is limited to Lebanon, and doesn't include New York, for example. What would an "unlimited" invasion even look like? One could say D-Day was "limited" to just Normandy for example. Still an invasion.

1

BigMike11

1 week ago

"Egoz Commander Lt. Col. "A" told the troops right before going in, "We have a great honor to write history in the North just like we did in Gaza. We started with lower-grade operations, but today, we are starting a more substantial invasion in order to return the northern residents to their homes. This is a substantial matter because we have not invaded Lebanon since 2006."

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

1 week ago

"Egoz Commander Lt. Col. "A" told the troops right before going in, "We have a great honor to write history in the North just like we did in Gaza. We started with lower-grade operations, but today, we are starting a more substantial invasion in order to return the northern residents to their homes. This is a substantial matter because we have not invaded Lebanon since 2006."

1

BigMike11

1 week ago

"The IDF's invasion of southern Lebanon late Monday night was led by Division 98 and its commander..." https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-821158

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

1 week ago

"The IDF's invasion of southern Lebanon late Monday night was led by Division 98 and its commander..." https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-821158

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

BigMike11

1 week ago

Can you give an example of an "unlimited" invasion? The Allies invasion of normandy was limited to Normandy, but was still an invasion, no?

0

n/a

1 week ago

Limited ground operation is not an invasion folks.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

BigMike11

1 week ago

Exactly. All invasions are limited, localised, and targeted. Israel has stayed overnight in Lebanon many times. you can't do that without establishing control.

0

Slytherin

1 week ago

Israel says ground raids are 'limited, localised and targeted'

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

1 week ago

There's also no split. Hezbollah sources told Lebanese reporters that Israel invaded, only Hezbollah repelled them. Still counts.

0

Will143

1 week ago

Rules never say both are required for yes. Ya'll just reading that into the rules. "The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by Hezbollah and Israel...." That doesn't say what happens in a split. Then the rest of the sentence says, ", however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used." Also Hezbollah is just denying an invasion force, not targeted raids.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

1 week ago

FYI, Israel has invaded. Sure, they are downplaying it "localized, targeted, and limited", but none of those words mean no invasion. All invasions are localized, targeted, and limited. Hezbollah says they were invaded, but the invaders were crushed. That is still an invasion No bros.

5

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

BigMike11

1 week ago

Looks to me like Israel invaded, and there is lots of evidence. "broader ground incursion, which began Monday night" https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israel-sends-troops-into-lebanon-escalating-fight-against-hezbollah-1dbcee03

1

zynyz

1 week ago

Whales betting their entire PNL that they can rig the market

Will Biden finish his term?

BigMike11

1 week ago

Biden is probably 95-97% likely to finish his term, but I'm temporarily freeing up cash for other markets.

6

Will Kamala Harris drop out of presidential race?

BigMike11

1 week ago

I concur with letting Big Mike have a go at this.

0

MrBilly

1 week ago

release diddy tapes and let big mike in

Harris-Walz Democratic ticket on election day?

BigMike11

1 week ago

Sure, but they aren't going to be dropped this late. This is effectively an assassination market, and you can buy it more cheaply elsewhere.

0

ProteinProsecco

3 weeks ago

Note that Harris-Walz being on state ballots will have no bearing on this market - only their status as the democratic nominees will be considered.

Nasrallah remains Hezbollah leader through Oct 31?

BigMike11

1 week ago

Same way they knew which buildings to target.

0

SanderKnowsIt

1 week ago

Israeli sources are no credible sources. How could they know whether he died or not?

Will Trump drop out of presidential race?

BigMike11

1 week ago

Tight security, 39 days to go, and you can buy R other to win for like 0.4 cents.

2

n/a

3 weeks ago

Two assassination attempts on a dementia addled 78 year old and this is only at 4%.

Alaska Presidential Election Winner

BigMike11

2 weeks ago

yeah sure, i've heard it all before. T took Alaska by 10 points in an environment where Biden regularly polled an 8-10 point lead nationally, and now he's a real threat to lose it to Kamala in a race that looks very close nationally.

0

iamthecheesemannotu

3 weeks ago

alaska will be closer than people realize

Iowa Presidential Election Winner

BigMike11

3 weeks ago

lmao, libs. T not losing Ioway.

0

Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden?

BigMike11

0 months ago

You might be right but... Biden is pretty blue-pilled.

0

Mountainman

0 months ago

If you aren't buying "YES" at these prices, why are you even here? I have literally never seen any chance wager this absurd. When this flies, it will go so much higher than most expect. If you follow politics this is so frickin obvious. Buying "NO" is the equivalent of betting on Taylor Swift to win a fight against prime Mike Tyson.... And betting on her as -300 Favorite!

When will GPT-5 be announced?

BigMike11

0 months ago

Don't forget, it has to be "complete". Seems unlikely they would announce it but not release immediately if it were really ready to go. Otherwise, they will probably tinker with it up until the release date.

0

Brovadana

1 month ago

Rules are vague, and poorly written, as is often the case. But sounds like if they announce in December that the next major model will be released in March 2025, then it would be Yes. The announcement is what counts, not the release date.

Virginia Presidential Election Winner

BigMike11

1 month ago

In this case, a mere 15 cents for Virginia sounds like a steal. I see you have no shares. Why not throw down a couple g's on it?

1

n/a

1 month ago

OMG the "Data" LOLOLOL https://x.com/StankoniaCap/status/1833331395466276962

Will Russia capture Pokrovsk before November?

BigMike11

1 month ago

Lol. i have yes bags, but if Russia takes it, they will then most likely follow it up with a prolonged operational pause as they have taken and will take huge losses in the process. And then later they'll trade this territory for what they lost in Kursk.

0

Anesti

1 month ago

Novohrodivka has fallen. Pokrovsk will be empty of civilians soon. Pokrovsk will be the last major defense of Ukraine.

Virginia Presidential Election Winner

BigMike11

1 month ago

Not the best pollster, but Morning Consult has D's up 10 points. That was Biden's margin last time around. https://x.com/Taniel/status/1833262910854074563

0

August 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

BigMike11

1 month ago

bro, not cool to impersonate.

2

aenews3

1 month ago

@bigmike11 is my larp dog.

August 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

BigMike11

1 month ago

link will most likely drain your wallet.

0

SN-Lammy

1 month ago

On polymarket's alternative the same bet has twice more liquidity and odds are different, arbitrage seems possible, lot of clueless whales around.. https://redirection-twitter.com/status/1832582205349953782

August 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

BigMike11

1 month ago

it's a vibes market

0

Greenfelder

1 month ago

How many people are actually running calculations...

North Carolina Presidential Election Winner

BigMike11

1 month ago

Big win for T!

2

n/a

1 month ago

RFK now off the ballot in NC.

Will Putin remain President of Russia through 2024?

BigMike11

1 month ago

Thanks guys for the easy 2-4 cent flip in a couple of days.

2

BigMike11

1 month ago

8% seems a bit high. This one is on Insight a bit cheaper.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

BigMike11

1 month ago

I think any definitive evidence that Trump had ownership or was involved in the management or operations. They say pretty explicitly he was involved in none of this. Now, I think probably he was, but they need legal plausible deniability, so they are never going to give you the definitive evidence you need here. That said, I'm happy to believe that if they drop the coin, yes will surely pump. I'd def sell at 90 though. You're going to get another retweet from T maximum.

0

Mountainman

1 month ago

The better question for you is if this doesn't meet your requirements for his involvement, what would?

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

BigMike11

1 month ago

@Mountainman, where does it say he was definitively involved in the deployment of the coin itself? Seems pretty clear he is not involved in operations, and that he is limited to marketing.

0

BigMike11

1 month ago

Sounds pretty conclusive/definitive.

Kamala flips Trump on Silver's Bulletin by Sept 6?

BigMike11

1 month ago

Something tells me today's Rasmussen T+1, conducted on August 22nd & 25th-28th, is not gonna do the job.

1

Kamala flips Trump on Silver's Bulletin by Sept 6?

BigMike11

1 month ago

Flipadelphia by the debate market, if you're interested. It is a pretty tight timeline to flip. https://insightprediction.com/m/308395/kamala-flips-trump-on-silvers-bulletin-by-the-first-debate

0

PrinceHal

1 month ago

will the market learn anything from the last two weeks? personally i doubt it

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

BigMike11

1 month ago

Sounds pretty conclusive/definitive.

3

BigMike11

1 month ago

"World Liberty Financial is not owned, managed, operated, or sold by Donald J. Trump". https://www.coindesk.com/business/2024/09/04/in-trump-backed-crypto-project-insiders-are-poised-for-unusually-big-paydays/

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

BigMike11

1 month ago

"World Liberty Financial is not owned, managed, operated, or sold by Donald J. Trump". https://www.coindesk.com/business/2024/09/04/in-trump-backed-crypto-project-insiders-are-poised-for-unusually-big-paydays/

10

·

Liked by n/a, JohnathanD... and 8 others

Kamala flips Trump on Silver's Bulletin by Sept 6?

BigMike11

1 month ago

congrats to those who knew, correctly, there would be a total of zero polls added the past three days w/ September data. If last cycle was a base rate, there'd have been 3 national and 2 PAs.

0

PrinceHal

1 month ago

Kamala +40 in PA and this flips

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

BigMike11

1 month ago

Exactly. Just b/c Trump retweets something doesn't prove "definitive" involvement anymore than if he retweeted something about bitcoin meant he is Satoshi Nakamoto. This will come down to an Uma fight if people are hoping the World Liberty will qualify -- even if the white paper alleges he's involved. it wouldn't even be the first project this year to allege Trump involvement.

1

n/a

1 month ago

No, that's exactly the point - no where to be found. And all trump himself ever did was just reposted the X handle once the WLFI with a video totally unrelated. Even if they ever launch a token not enough for involvement. Same as he would repost about Bitcoin. Was he involved in the creation of Bitcoin. Nope

Kamala flips Trump on Silver's Bulletin by Sept 6?

BigMike11

1 month ago

Seems like maybe not. Post-labor day polling was light last cycle. There was basically nothing over labor-day weekend. So all that happened in the past few days is a declining weight for the pre-DNC polls, and growing weight for the post-DNC, bounce adjusted polls. In all honesty, Kamala probably declines again today before plateauing.

0

BigDoh

1 month ago

Are any state polls coming out over the next few days?

Kamala flips Trump on Silver's Bulletin by Sept 6?

BigMike11

1 month ago

Can we get a Sept. 10th deadline? Like this market: https://insightprediction.com/m/308395/kamala-flips-trump-on-silvers-bulletin-by-the-first-debate

0

Harris-Walz Democratic ticket on election day?

BigMike11

1 month ago

Reminder: early voting in North Carolina starts this week. Pennsylvania ballots, and ballots in Maricopa County in Arizona have been set in stone for a week already. It's simply too late for Harris to make a change with VP. And if Harris drops out, well, you can buy "Democrat Other" to win the Presidency for like 0.3 cents, which is a fair value for No shares here. .

0

Trump-Vance Republican ticket on election day?

BigMike11

1 month ago

Lmao, this is still at 94/95? This is worth a penny tops. The ballots are already set in stone, and you can buy "republican other" elsewhere for a fraction of a penny in case Trump has a heart attack. Early voting starts this week in North Carolina. Give it up, I want to redeploy my capital. We've got this bet up on Insight Prediction for 2-3 cents, which is still generous.

0

2024 August hottest on record?

BigMike11

1 month ago

Buying more yes while running my air-conditioning on high. The record August heat is still with us.

3

BigMike11

1 month ago

Nope. Eye-balled it, yes.

2024 August hottest on record?

BigMike11

1 month ago

Nope. Eye-balled it, yes.

2

humblePie

1 month ago

did anyone even plot the data?

What will Trump say during Lex Fridman interview?

BigMike11

1 month ago

They forgot tampon.

4

Will Putin remain President of Russia through 2024?

BigMike11

1 month ago

8% seems a bit high. This one is on Insight a bit cheaper.

0

Zelensky remains President of Ukraine through September?

BigMike11

1 month ago

I think there is probably elevated risk of regime change. I'd just put it at 1-2% per month and not 5%. Zelensky has made a lot of poor decisions since the start of the war (defending Bakhmut, firing Zaluzhniy, waiting to expand the draft because it was unpopular).

0

n/a

1 month ago

What are some rational arguments for NO?

Will Taylor Swift endorse Kamala Harris?

BigMike11

1 month ago

Terrible language. What if she says "I support Kamala with all my heart!" Since she neither said she votes for her, nor is it a formal endorsement, it shouldn't count. Even though it's a much stronger statement than "I vote for Kamala". Such a statement does imply she'd vote for Kamala given the context, and thus it would come down to an arbitrary Uma kangaroo court.

0

n/a

1 month ago

What is the definition of a “formal endorsement”? It’s been inconsistent on Bernie and RFK decisions.

JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee?

BigMike11

1 month ago

Deadline now is too soon. Here's one with a longer deadline https://x.com/InsightForecast/status/1829523630918906344

0

0x23665967e7e763aE5844810c40a6A09C8725Fdc

1 month ago

https://www.politico.com/video/2024/08/29/vance-repeatedly-booed-at-union-event-in-boston-1419334

Tim Walz replaced as Democratic VP nominee?

BigMike11

1 month ago

I've posted this elsewhere, but ballot deadlines have passed in Maricopa & Pennsylvania. I'm sure something may still be able to be done, but North Carolina is sending out absentee ballots next week. It's a fantasy that this is happening, and I want my capital back;) https://www.natesilver.net/p/rfk-jr-will-probably-drop-out-is?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1198116&post_id=148014065&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=false&r=7ovwl&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email

5

Tim Walz replaced as Democratic VP nominee?

BigMike11

1 month ago

Also, you can buy "Other Dem" to win Presidency at 0.3 cents, and effectively get this much more cheaply.

3

BigMike11

1 month ago

I don't doubt that embarrassing stories have and will emerge. But the deadline to remove Walz's name from the ballots has already passed in a lot of counties and will very soon pass in a bunch of states. Even Dan Quayle and Sarah Palin were not taken off their tickets. The way this happens is most likely to happen is if Harris is assassinated and Walz is made the Presidential candidate, while remaining on the ticket. But the chances of this are probably on the order of 0.2-0.5% at this point.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

BigMike11

1 month ago

NFTs are not a coin.

2

JR2

1 month ago

i tend to agree with @LMNOP that this market is unclear, but releasing NFT's is still 'deployment of a new token' - its right there in the name NF'T'

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

BigMike11

1 month ago

https://x.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1829140582566076430?s=46

1

Harris-Walz Democratic ticket on election day?

BigMike11

1 month ago

Ballots are already fixed in Maricopa County and Pennsylvania, according to Nate Silver's substack. https://www.natesilver.net/p/rfk-jr-will-probably-drop-out-is?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1198116&post_id=148014065&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=false&r=7ovwl&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email No buyers can already get this much cheaper elsewhere, such as at Insight Prediction: https://www.natesilver.net/p/rfk-jr-will-probably-drop-out-is?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1198116&post_id=148014065&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=false&r=7ovwl&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email

0

JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee?

BigMike11

1 month ago

"Maricopa County finalizes their ballots by August 22nd". Pennsylvania was August 27th. https://www.natesilver.net/p/rfk-jr-will-probably-drop-out-is

0

JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee?

BigMike11

1 month ago

Whoah. https://x.com/meiselasb/status/1828459450698735733

0

JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee?

BigMike11

1 month ago

1. VP's barely matter in practice. 2. It would be embarrassing to dump Vance after picking him. It would be a public acknowledgment that Trump has poor judgment and is erratic. 3. Some ballots are already set in stone. The way this happens is via a successful assassination attempt of T or Vance in the next four days.

1

n/a

1 month ago

If Trump drops Vance, he wins. The question is, does Trump WANT to win? And yes, it's really that frekin simple!

Tim Walz replaced as Democratic VP nominee?

BigMike11

1 month ago

I don't doubt that embarrassing stories have and will emerge. But the deadline to remove Walz's name from the ballots has already passed in a lot of counties and will very soon pass in a bunch of states. Even Dan Quayle and Sarah Palin were not taken off their tickets. The way this happens is most likely to happen is if Harris is assassinated and Walz is made the Presidential candidate, while remaining on the ticket. But the chances of this are probably on the order of 0.2-0.5% at this point.

6

Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl?

BigMike11

1 month ago

links for those?

0

BlueSky123

1 month ago

Tammy Bieber and Harv referred to the baby with male pronouns, this can resolve yes now. Don't let rules terrorists win and delay payouts.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

BigMike11

1 month ago

link?

0

td.

1 month ago

he also posted a link to this channel, which has this title: The DeFiant Ones. but more importantly, what's the subtitle/ tagline of the channel? "Official Trump DeFi Channel"

Will Beyoncé perform at the DNC?

BigMike11

1 month ago

Walz should have come out with Taylor Swift

0

Will Beyoncé perform at the DNC?

BigMike11

1 month ago

Nope just Doug Emhoff

0

Will Beyoncé perform at the DNC?

BigMike11

1 month ago

Serenading George Bush

0

Will Beyoncé perform at the DNC?

BigMike11

1 month ago

Time for the Beyonce & Taylor duo

0

538 favorite when forecast is turned on?

BigMike11

1 month ago

Is there news here?

1

JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee?

BigMike11

1 month ago

Could be announcing it tonight. https://twitter.com/CryptidPolitics/status/1826319706501816720

4

JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee?

BigMike11

1 month ago

RFK to replace Vance.

7

Kamala Harris replaced as nominee at DNC?

BigMike11

1 month ago

It was always Big Mike

4

CFTC

1 month ago

Whose ready for the easiest 100x this cycle!

What will Trump say during Saturday rally?

BigMike11

1 month ago

Is there a way to get the text out of this? For some youtube videos it is possible.

0

n/a

1 month ago

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZaVdb0VFle8

What will Trump say during Saturday rally?

BigMike11

1 month ago

thanks

1

n/a

1 month ago

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZaVdb0VFle8

What will Trump say during Saturday rally?

BigMike11

1 month ago

Anyone have a live text link?

0

What will Trump say during Saturday rally?

BigMike11

1 month ago

Curious what feed people are watching?

0

What will Trump say during Saturday rally?

BigMike11

1 month ago

Can we get a tampon 2, and 3+?

2

Will RFK Jr. drop out before September?

BigMike11

1 month ago

Kamala should do a deal with him so he stays in the race...

2

n/a

1 month ago

His own campaign staffers just said he met with Harris last week to do a deal: Throw his support behind her for a role in her administration

JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee?

BigMike11

2 months ago

could for sure happen. Would be dumb to do, but that doesn't mean it won't happen. T is doing badly in the polls since JD joined the ticket. Easier emotionally to conclude he merely need to fire JD.

0

n/a

2 months ago

I think it might be dawning on Trump that if he doesn’t win this election then he’s probably going to jail.

538 favorite when forecast is turned on?

BigMike11

2 months ago

Seems like it would be too embarrassing to release a model right now where Kamala is the underdog, especially after the latest round of NYTimes polls. That is almost certainly what the 538 model would say if they didn't tweek it. What they'll do is make changes to it or wait until Kamala is winning. They should probably redo the original, and revise Biden's old numbers down.

1

2024 July hottest on record?

BigMike11

2 months ago

@oxb9 can you dump your no bags now?

0

n/a

2 months ago

Hello aenews2/bigmike11, the site you are referring to, which was your former favorite site, has virtually 0 volume available. Therefore your statement makes no sense.

2024 July hottest on record?

BigMike11

2 months ago

I've never seen anything like it.

2

n/a

2 months ago

By the way, anews2 and bama124 have bought 480000 shares in the last 24 hours without the price moving upwards. Amazing, isn't it? Have you ever seen anything like it?

Olympic Basketball: USA vs. Serbia

BigMike11

2 months ago

Damn. Needed Steph to go 9-14 from deep to eek that out.

0

2024 July hottest on record?

BigMike11

2 months ago

@oxb9 that part is true. Still, this market will resolve pretty soon regardless.

0

BigMike11

2 months ago

Likely talking about different sites, I see 2,300 shares on offer for less than 20 cents there vs. none here.

2024 July hottest on record?

BigMike11

2 months ago

ok, but there are 0 shares available at those no prices here. Still not sure we're even talking about the same site.

0

n/a

2 months ago

Hello aenews2/bigmike11, the site you are referring to, which was your former favorite site, has virtually 0 volume available. Therefore your statement makes no sense.

2024 July hottest on record?

BigMike11

2 months ago

Likely talking about different sites, I see 2,300 shares on offer for less than 20 cents there vs. none here.

0

n/a

2 months ago

Hello aenews2/bigmike11, the site you are referring to, which was your former favorite site, has virtually 0 volume available. Therefore your statement makes no sense.

2024 July hottest on record?

BigMike11

2 months ago

Research shows that people get more utility for paying a higher price for their no shares than they would if they were to perform a rudimentary google search first, and then buy the cheapest shares on offer across platforms.

2

2024 July hottest on record?

BigMike11

2 months ago

big mike solana is a self-described billionaire

0

viltalik

2 months ago

I thought profitable big mikes were a myth

2024 July hottest on record?

BigMike11

2 months ago

stranger, can even get better odds on No at Insight prediction, and yet they buy here.

1

n/a

2 months ago

Yes, very strange, most no holders are losers and the yes holders are winners. And what is also strange: 11/15 accounts of no holders were registered in July/August. Is this normal behavior for newbies on this site? load up 50k and then go all-in on a single market?

2024 July hottest on record?

BigMike11

2 months ago

it's partly the profit on this market -- some of the No holders are profitable or even ex-their returns on this market, at a glance.

0

Wellmaybe

2 months ago

The fact that top 5 Yes holders are all in 50k+ profit and top 5 No holders are all in loss is astonishing

2024 July hottest on record?

BigMike11

2 months ago

First July will be the hottest, and then #BigMIke will be coronated at the DNC. Dump your no & Kamala bags now.

3

2024 July hottest on record?

BigMike11

2 months ago

Not a link clicker, but can you summarize your results?

0

TheDrachma

2 months ago

Here is a comparison of my results for Jan-July 2023/2024 for the land station averages versus the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index. https://gofile.io/d/z3JzJs

2024 July hottest on record?

BigMike11

2 months ago

Insider buying no at 23...

5

2024 July hottest on record?

BigMike11

2 months ago

I demand a "Will Big Mike Be Nominated the Month After the Hottest July" parlay. (fixed first version...)

1

2024 July hottest on record?

BigMike11

2 months ago

Gonna dump my yes bags after this.

2

Superque

2 months ago

This link was shared in a forum where groups from various universities are analyzing the impact of temperature along with the distance of the orbits. I'm here to shed some light since I see that everyone is looking out for their own interests depending on what they have invested. I'm going to provide objective data. On August 4th, we already had the GISS data available, as usual, these are not final data and have been changing as the beacons have been synthesized and grouped, which is why many models take a few days to provide their final data along with their reports. The data we are currently handling in the research groups range between 117 and 119, very close, almost identical to those of Era5 (other times there are small differences). This range of numbers is due to what I mentioned earlier. The first 14 days of July were colder than those of July 2023, which has significantly influenced the results, even though some parts of the Earth have exceeded their maximum temperatures. In water temperature, we found a deviation of 0.38. I hope that this discussion has excited or sparked curiosity about the world of meteorology, and we hope to see you in some forum where we will be happy to support you. Best regards.

Will Kamala Harris drop out in August?

BigMike11

2 months ago

Make way for #BigMike

1

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

BigMike11

2 months ago

was it a coin?

0

RooksDemon

2 months ago

https://collecttrumpcards.com/ Trump has already launched NFTs before and the T in NFT stands for Token. "Tokens launched prior to the start date of this market will qualify for a "Yes" resolution."

Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?

BigMike11

2 months ago

what dumb rules

0

Slytherin

2 months ago

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that Fox News announces that it will host such a debate. Whether the debate actually occurs will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

Who will endorse Kamala?

BigMike11

2 months ago

After reading all the comments in the round and see that he was asked directly about an endorsement and he was a bit unclear, I've flipped to No. He may well still tweet something more clear tomorrow.

0

n/a

2 months ago

This is not what I think, this is literally the definition according to Google. I only have 200 shares, so I'm not here to convince you though.

Who will endorse Kamala?

BigMike11

2 months ago

I'm convinced. You're correct. What he said sounds like an endorsement but clearly he was beating around the bush a bit more than necessary.

2

n/a

2 months ago

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qx5f0wvZvqg

Who will endorse Kamala?

BigMike11

2 months ago

counterpoint: "the rules" don't say that they require that language exactly. I think it's reasonable to interpret "I'll do everything I can to elect..." as an endorsement.

0

n/a

2 months ago

We've been over this in the comments already. The rules require it to be a, quote, "formal endorsement". There is plenty of evidence, including a NY Times guest opinion piece by Sanders, that he has yet to provide his formal endorsement, as he is still demanding she provides assurances for working class Americans. With his strong support, there is no pressure for him to formally endorse her before the DNC in the next few days, and meanwhile he can claim he's supportive of her. No one is denying that he's endorsed her, but that doesn't meet the rules of this particular market.

Who will endorse Kamala?

BigMike11

2 months ago

Seems to me and ABC news like he did already: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-updates/biden-drops-out-updates/?id=112113289&entryId=112335174&cid=social_twitter_abcn

1

Paganheat

2 months ago

There’s still 4 days left and plenty of time for him to formally endorse

Who will endorse Kamala?

BigMike11

2 months ago

I dunno, "I'm going to be doing everything I can ... to elect Kamala Harris as the next President" sounds to me like an endorsement.

1

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

BigMike11

2 months ago

$DJT

0

Republican VP nominee?

BigMike11

2 months ago

link? i saw tweets.

0

Car

2 months ago

sources told press Marco Rubio wont be VP

Democratic Nominee 2024

BigMike11

3 months ago

I think Biden is in real trouble, but yeah, seems to be a leap of faith to think Jill & Hunter Biden are close to dropping out.

0

n/a

3 months ago

it's like 4 months before the election, when everyone finally realizes that biden AIN'T LEAVIN', then they will all be forced to back him again. Except biden certainly won't forget each and every person who betrayed him

Democratic Nominee 2024

BigMike11

3 months ago

No way they drop out https://x.com/pashedmotatos/status/1807768639824695362?s=08

0

Copa America Winner

BigMike11

3 months ago

@KingofRingx3 Yes, sure. But, the US rarely plays in the Copa America. And, as mentioned, this is easily the most talented USMNT we have ever had. Much more talented on paper than the two US teams who went to the semifinals. Obv, the US lost to Panama, but a freak first half red-card was fairly unlucky. For sure the US could lose to Uruguay, or draw, and be eliminated, but I think it will be an even-ish match with chances. I could be wrong. Tim Weah suspended is a big deal for the US as he was a top 3 player at the World Cup two years ago.

0

BigMike11

3 months ago

I don't see why Uruguay is that favored over the US. The US is historically ridiculously dominant playing competitive matches in the US. Last Copa America in the US, we made the semifinals with roughly 5/11 healthy starters and a far inferior roster to what we have currently. You look where US starters play vs. where the Uruguayan starters play, and you'd think the US should be favored to win our group on a neutral field. All US starters play in a top 5 Euro league, whereas a few Uruguayan starters playin Mexico or Russia, and a few play on very marginal sides, or are subs at top clubs. Only hesitation is that Berhalter is a terrible coach, and picking Pepi over Balogan at striker -- long a position of concern -- is more ridiculousness from him. The US obv won't have anything like homefield advantage over a Brazil or Argentina, but in a 3 game playoff, a lot can happen, and the US may get lucky and not have to face both or even either. That said all these South American sides can embarrass the US when on, and Beerholder may be worth shorting at 7 cents.

Biden senile during the debate?

BigMike11

3 months ago

He did poorly, and his voice was raspy. Senile is a stretch.

1

Copa America 2024: Panama vs. USA

BigMike11

3 months ago

Lol at that penalty. Barely any contact. Contact occurs when the ball is already going out of bounds. US getting concacaf'd.

0

BigMike11

3 months ago

My counterparty got lucky from a first half red card. The US is historically 16-1-1 since 1998 vs. Concacaf opponents not named Mexico or Costa Rica at home in WCQs.

Copa America 2024: Panama vs. USA

BigMike11

3 months ago

My counterparty got lucky from a first half red card. The US is historically 16-1-1 since 1998 vs. Concacaf opponents not named Mexico or Costa Rica at home in WCQs.

0

Republican VP nominee?

BigMike11

3 months ago

https://x.com/InsightForecast/status/1805893694207246447

1

Sonim

3 months ago

Those Vivek odds 👀

Republican VP nominee?

BigMike11

3 months ago

you're just peanuts compared to me. Hadn't learned your lesson yet. https://x.com/simonateba/status/1803274121070948544

0

41-17™askDomerWhatImean

3 months ago

Trump often lies. It's Vivek. Enjoy your L!

Republican VP nominee?

BigMike11

3 months ago

Reminder: "Trump rules out Vivek Ramaswamy as a running mate" https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-18/trump-rules-out-ramaswamy-as-running-mate-as-he-eyes-new-team

0

Is $DJT real?

BigMike11

3 months ago

$0.002

0

paizon

3 months ago

All the "Yes" votes could still get $0.02 by selling now.

Republican VP nominee?

BigMike11

3 months ago

the Ozempic candidate

0

DefinitelyNotTonySoprano

3 months ago

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/4735853-sarah-huckabee-sanders-donald-trump-administration/ It's not Sanders confirmed. She slimmed down so Smokey's loan on his house can slim down.

Is $DJT real?

BigMike11

3 months ago

DM support

2

ryanobeast

3 months ago

I want my money back

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

BigMike11

3 months ago

"Per conversations, Trump is launching an official token — $DJT on Solana. Barron spearheading."

0

BigMike11

3 months ago

https://x.com/PirateWires/status/1802825492405669930

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

BigMike11

3 months ago

https://x.com/PirateWires/status/1802825492405669930

0

Was Barron involved in $DJT?

BigMike11

3 months ago

Evidence that makes me go, whoah

4

Wojtek

3 months ago

https://x.com/MartinShkreli/status/1805403605794430994 Look how much evidence he has 🤡

Was Barron involved in $DJT?

BigMike11

3 months ago

Adam, if the case is so strong, why lie about it? You edited Mike Solana's quote to remove the words "from my point of view" in the Mike Solana post. Mike Solana actually said "I can only tell you, from my point of view" that Barron is involved. Cut the bullshit. You are lying to save your bags.

6

Squee

3 months ago

https://adamsherman.substack.com/p/did-barron-trump-start-a-memecoin

Was Barron involved in $DJT?

BigMike11

3 months ago

A lot of you guys were fooled by Martin Shkeli. You should be ashamed. Even Vivek Ramaswamy, who also invested in one of his companies, calls him "pathologically incapable of telling the truth". Same article shows he would offer Politico journalists money for good articles. This is why this news broke in "Pirate Wires" and not anywhere reputable. https://www.politico.com/news/2023/05/23/vivek-ramaswamy-martin-shkreli-pharma-00098338

7

Did Barron Trump launch $DJT?

BigMike11

3 months ago

The problem is, if Martin had definitive evidence, he would have shared it. That he hasn't suggests he doesn't have anything definitive. And that in turn means it is quite unlikely.

1

n/a

3 months ago

Stop burning your money in this market which requires a ridiculous amount of proof and come bet in the market that actually has a great shot at winning https://polymarket.com/event/was-barron-involved-in-djt?tid=1719193645426

Was Barron involved in $DJT?

BigMike11

3 months ago

You are hustling. You know Mike Solana claimed he does not have an independent source besides Martin and someone Martin introduced him to. He also says "All I know on this is what I've been told". He also says he does not know to what extent Barron was involved.

0

0xaf

3 months ago

Don't make the mistake of betting on this market because of your feelings about Martin Shkreli. This market is about Mike Solana and his credibility.

Was Barron involved in $DJT?

BigMike11

3 months ago

Has Mario been able to confirm the Secret Service forms Martin filled out when he met the President's son *BARRON TRUMP* and promised to show Mario yet?

0

nawf

3 months ago

https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/1804724714130014473 (if you think im him based on my name- im not mario just a listener)

Is $DJT real?

BigMike11

3 months ago

This isn't Insight Prediction. Resolution takes days at polymarket.

2

paizon

3 months ago

Why is this still open? Wasn't it supposed to resolve last night?

Is $DJT real?

BigMike11

3 months ago

Still, if Barron or DJT come out and confirms the evidence Martin Shkreli and Mike Solana have provided before the cutoff, it would be hard not to consider it in practice.

1

Dantellox

3 months ago

Doesnt really matter as the definitive evidence would have to be out by 11:59 PM ET on June 21, 2024 to be valid for the bet and so far there is none.

Was Barron involved in $DJT?

BigMike11

3 months ago

He didn't say Barron told him, he said a source Martin Shkreli introduced him to confirmed Barron's involvement, but he doesn't know to what extent.

0

0xaf

3 months ago

As Solana explained, Barron told him it was official, probably jumping the gun in some 'succession' style move.

Is $DJT real?

BigMike11

3 months ago

The No resolution of this market has in fact been disputed. Yes holders can expect to wait 2 days and 17 hours at a minimum, and Uma is famous for being a wild card on resolutions. Hard to say what kind of bombs the likes of Mike Solana & the Trump team are going to unleash in this time.

2

Was Barron involved in $DJT?

BigMike11

3 months ago

At one point, Mike Solana did contradict Mike Solana on this though. First it was an official Trump token, and now it's been downgraded to a "kind of official" Trump token. He's also said in his "point of view" Barron was involved, which indicates he is somewhat uncertain. He also said "all i know on this is what I've been told". And he says his source is Martin Shrkeli and one other person Martin put him in touch with.

1

0xaf

3 months ago

Note that the evidence just has to 'suggest' that Barron was involved. Not prove it: "a preponderance of evidence suggests that Barron Trump was involved"

Is $DJT real?

BigMike11

3 months ago

Unfortunately, we did not get anything definitive from the Trump Team in time. This one might be a clear No, but there is a market with a later resolution date and better rules. https://polymarket.com/event/did-barron-trump-launch-djt?tid=1719030182492

1

Is $DJT real?

BigMike11

3 months ago

No holders should realize that this will inevitably go to dispute, and will take days before Uma chews on all the evidence that has been presented.

0

Was Barron involved in $DJT?

BigMike11

3 months ago

@0xaf Was Mike Solana correct in saying this was an official Trump token? Or was he correct when he said it was a "sort of official" Trump token?

0

BigMike11

3 months ago

Note that the evdidence that Barron was not involved just has to 'suggest' he was not involved. It need not be conclusive. Anyway, I'll concede it's likely that Martin Shkreli will release definitive proof soon: https://x.com/MartinShkreli/status/1804205366579703878

Was Barron involved in $DJT?

BigMike11

3 months ago

No, Shkreli said something official is coming down the pike.

1

n/a

3 months ago

Doubt it, think what he referred to was the Mike Solana's confirmation.

Was Barron involved in $DJT?

BigMike11

3 months ago

To me, the fact that Martin Shkreli, a pathological liar and con man who stands to benefit from this, is the source for all this information is a reason to discount it. That he has changed his story about Baron's involvement 100 times, and lies every time he opens his mouth suggests he's lying about this as well.

3

BigMike11

3 months ago

Note that the evdidence that Barron was not involved just has to 'suggest' he was not involved. It need not be conclusive. Anyway, I'll concede it's likely that Martin Shkreli will release definitive proof soon: https://x.com/MartinShkreli/status/1804205366579703878

Was Barron involved in $DJT?

BigMike11

3 months ago

Note that the evdidence that Barron was not involved just has to 'suggest' he was not involved. It need not be conclusive. Anyway, I'll concede it's likely that Martin Shkreli will release definitive proof soon: https://x.com/MartinShkreli/status/1804205366579703878

2

0xaf

3 months ago

Note that the evidence just has to 'suggest' that Barron was involved. Not prove it: "a preponderance of evidence suggests that Barron Trump was involved"

Is $DJT real?

BigMike11

3 months ago

One Truth Social post could change everything. I'm now on yes.

3

Is $DJT real?

BigMike11

3 months ago

but, don't you also believe Martin Shkreli, on balance, that this is Barron's coin? If so, then a Truth Social post could well be incoming, as Martin Shkreli himself has implied, no?

3

n/a

3 months ago

I recommend all yes bettors sell their shares, there will be no definitive proof of trump's involvement coming out within the next 3 hours.

Is $DJT real?

BigMike11

3 months ago

@fetfitta yes, I watched that video. Mic Solana walked back his initial tweet. He now says this is a "kind of official" coin, and he clarified that is his "opinion". He also says all he knows is what he has been told.

0

nawf

3 months ago

i have enough usdc but it wont let me propose a resolution, why is that?

Is $DJT real?

BigMike11

3 months ago

Curious, based on what evidence?

0

nawf

3 months ago

i have enough usdc but it wont let me propose a resolution, why is that?

Was Barron involved in $DJT?

BigMike11

3 months ago

Shkreli's language suggests we may get an official truth social post soon. "You will see the official truth soon." If so I'll definitely flip on these markets. https://x.com/MartinShkreli/status/1804205366579703878

1

Is $DJT real?

BigMike11

3 months ago

one post from Truth Social, and this is flippadelphia

2

Car

3 months ago

imagine this reverses up

Is $DJT real?

BigMike11

3 months ago

Sounds like we may soon have an official Trump Truth Social post soonish: https://x.com/MartinShkreli/status/1804205366579703878

4

Was Barron involved in $DJT?

BigMike11

3 months ago

If Barron Trump really spearheaded the Donald Trump coin, why hasn't Barron Trump said anything at all publicly about this? Or Donald?

1

n/a

3 months ago

To prove an element by a preponderance of the evidence simply means to prove that something is more likely than not. In other words, in light of the evidence and the law, do you believe that each element of his/her [claim/counterclaim] is more likely true than not?

Was Barron involved in $DJT?

BigMike11

3 months ago

you have been rolled by a serial con man who is still on probation. there isn't actually any hard evidence at all that Barron Trump was involved in this, except for the constantly changing story from said con man who you yourself concede has told some whoppers.

1

n/a

3 months ago

To prove an element by a preponderance of the evidence simply means to prove that something is more likely than not. In other words, in light of the evidence and the law, do you believe that each element of his/her [claim/counterclaim] is more likely true than not?

When will GPT-5 be announced?

BigMike11

3 months ago

Mira says a year and a half https://x.com/tsarnick/status/1803901130130497952

2

Was Barron involved in $DJT?

BigMike11

3 months ago

No small wonder the Trump team chose to tap the founder and CEO of Shoggoth, and fellow felon, to lead the official Trump $DJT meme coin, and have Barron -- good with computers -- spearhead the whole operation. My only hesitation is that with Friday and Saturday nights coming up, Martin may choose to go out like he did Thursday instead of providing the promised evidence. Too bad this market closes Sunday, and the lawyers put the kebosh on the whole thing after signing off on it. We need a longer duration market.

2

n/a

3 months ago

To prove an element by a preponderance of the evidence simply means to prove that something is more likely than not. In other words, in light of the evidence and the law, do you believe that each element of his/her [claim/counterclaim] is more likely true than not?

Did Barron Trump launch $DJT?

BigMike11

3 months ago

Shame the Trump's have ghosted Shkreli in his moment of need.

1

n/a

3 months ago

this market is a dud, definitive proof will never be released. Go to the other market, which is a clear YES, because it just requires that something is more likely true than not. https://polymarket.com/event/was-barron-involved-in-djt?tid=1718949778992

Did Barron Trump launch $DJT?

BigMike11

3 months ago

Surely he won't go out Friday or Saturday night?

2

BigMike11

3 months ago

Shame Shkreli went off for a date in lieu of providing evidence.

Did Barron Trump launch $DJT?

BigMike11

3 months ago

Shame Shkreli went off for a date in lieu of providing evidence.

3

Was Barron involved in $DJT?

BigMike11

3 months ago

that the "Trump team" would pick Martin Shkreli, convicted felon, and currently on probation, to handle all the technical details of the official $DJT coin. That the "Trump team" would contact him unsolicited via a DM from an unverified instagram account that has since been disactivated. That Donald Trump and Barron would make a shitcoin, and get a convicted felon to promote it, and the felon would spend 10 hours a day promoting it on twitter spaces just to clear his name, and not for any financial remuneration of any kind. That Donald Trump would hire a lawyer to shephard Barron through the process, and that lawyer would not ask to meet with Martin Shkreli or sign any kind of a contract. That anyone could create a meme coin and pump it, and pay to have Maria Nawfal host a space for it, but not give anyone anything -- just Barron keeps all the proceeds. Also a little fishy that Barron would work "10 hours a day" on this, but not think to promote it publicly himself.

1

ootharju

3 months ago

what doesn't make sense?

Was Barron involved in $DJT?

BigMike11

3 months ago

Bo Loudon, DJT superfan here: all you got is that i retweeted something about $DJT being the "real Trump coin" and then deleted it. Martin himself testified that he would never violate Barron's trust by releasing a screenshot. Which testimonial was compelling? That someone on Shkreli's team received a phone call from Barron Trump, but they didn't take it b/c these ballers have bigger fish to fry?

2

n/a

3 months ago

Agree that Martin is a serial liar, but I believe he is truthful with regards to Barron being involved. There is plenty of evidence in support, to name a few: Barron's two best friends being involved, screenshot of chatlogs with Barron, many testimonials from spaces from people who are seemingly credible and no incentive to lie.

Was Barron involved in $DJT?

BigMike11

3 months ago

Martin is a pathological liar and serial BS'er. He has said himself he's not involved in this project, and that he did all the programming himself for it. He's said he owns no tokens. And confessed he does own tokens, only "not a material amount". He's also said $5 million is not a "material amount" -- not worth his time, even to engage in a free money bet. He has implied he met Barron in person and later said he never met Barron. He allegedly met Barron when Barron DM'd him randomly from a rando instagram account, and "ordered" him to create the coin. Previously, he had said the "Trump team" reached out to him. He implied $100 mill is small change for him, but then later said he was going to get a billionaire to put up the money. And yet he has unpaid legal fines, as he himself admits. Said he's doing these 10 hours of twitter spaces each day even though he's not makin' any money out of this, but to clear his name as people have alleged that he's not being fully truthful. At other times, he's admitted to doing this to make money. Said Barron had gone completely cold since this went public, and that Barron met with the CEO of Kraken Wednesday. Said Donald J. Trump hired a lawyer to help Barron with this project, and that the lawyers suddenly bottled it only after Martin Shkreli tweeted it.

3

Did Barron Trump launch $DJT?

BigMike11

3 months ago

bros, just hold the line at 84

1

Democratic Nominee 2024

BigMike11

3 months ago

perfect. I would also bet in bitcoin there at the poly price + 2/3 cents.

1

VibesGreaterRules

3 months ago

If anyone wants to bet Bitcoin, I want Biden Yes. We can get Insight Prediction to host the bet.

Copa America Winner

BigMike11

3 months ago

I don't see why Uruguay is that favored over the US. The US is historically ridiculously dominant playing competitive matches in the US. Last Copa America in the US, we made the semifinals with roughly 5/11 healthy starters and a far inferior roster to what we have currently. You look where US starters play vs. where the Uruguayan starters play, and you'd think the US should be favored to win our group on a neutral field. All US starters play in a top 5 Euro league, whereas a few Uruguayan starters playin Mexico or Russia, and a few play on very marginal sides, or are subs at top clubs. Only hesitation is that Berhalter is a terrible coach, and picking Pepi over Balogan at striker -- long a position of concern -- is more ridiculousness from him. The US obv won't have anything like homefield advantage over a Brazil or Argentina, but in a 3 game playoff, a lot can happen, and the US may get lucky and not have to face both or even either. That said all these South American sides can embarrass the US when on, and Beerholder may be worth shorting at 7 cents.

0

VibesGreaterRules

3 months ago

AR, BR, UR, CO underpriced.

Democratic Nominee 2024

BigMike11

4 months ago

Amen, there is another prediction market that offers this bet in BTC, at better prices. Can google.

0

VibesGreaterRules

4 months ago

There are a couple prediction markets that support btc bets that we could use.

Democratic Nominee 2024

BigMike11

4 months ago

Hillary Clinton coin mooning

0

When will GPT-5 be announced?

BigMike11

4 months ago

completed means trained? Red-teamed? Finished tinkering and ready to release?

1

Democratic Nominee 2024

BigMike11

4 months ago

are you on discord, by chance? https://discord.gg/bT8JVpQQ

0

CFTC

4 months ago

Better to buy Popular Vote or Straight Presidential Winner IMO.

Was Caitlyn Jenner hacked?

BigMike11

4 months ago

How likely can it be that *neither* were hacked?

2

n/a

4 months ago

She said she wouldn't sell any coins and then dumped six figures, after calling out Sahil for doing the same. Might be a hack, tbh ✌

Was Caitlyn Jenner hacked?

BigMike11

4 months ago

Bruce Jenner is on the golf course while his PR manager accumulates yes shares, and will unveil the hack tomorrow.

2

New Mexico Presidential Election Winner

BigMike11

5 months ago

Hey let's overreact to a poll six months out on over-reaction Monday

3

Republican VP nominee?

BigMike11

5 months ago

there are people who use ip address masking features, but technically US users are not allowed.

0

SHA256

5 months ago

bro, how do I use poly market in the US. I'm so lost rn

Democratic Nominee 2024

BigMike11

5 months ago

Serious question: where are the Michele Obama bettors are getting their news from? Why is this site so much higher on Michele than Manifold/Metaculus or bitcoin sites like Insight Prediction?

2

Republican VP nominee?

BigMike11

5 months ago

interesting. Who are you thinking exactly?

0

YouKnowNothingJonSnow

5 months ago

Need another guy listed…

Republican VP nominee?

BigMike11

5 months ago

@youknownothing give us the anti-Tim Scott pump, and give your No shares some legs.

0

Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic VP nominee?

BigMike11

5 months ago

Could have gotten 11% on Biden D-Nom on essentially the same bet.

1

SesameCake

5 months ago

~9% return on investment by mid August for something that's basically certain? beats a bank account for sure. That's like a 30% annualized return

How Long will CZ's sentence be?

BigMike11

5 months ago

fat finger gift for someone special

0

NBA

BigMike11

5 months ago

might be a rumor))

0

BigMike11

5 months ago

"Kawhi Leonard cleared to play Game 1, per ESPN"

NBA

BigMike11

5 months ago

"Kawhi Leonard cleared to play Game 1, per ESPN"

0

Ukraine responsible for Moscow attack?

BigMike11

6 months ago

Possibly the worst rules of any prediction market ever.

2

41-17™askDomerWhatImean

6 months ago

Mindbogglingly retarded rules. Obviously there's a high chance the Russian government and the Ukrainian government will differ in their assessment of the culpability of Ukraine. Never mind the difficulty of ascertaining who among the governments gets to make the call. Such dumb rules.

First place in California Senate Primary?

BigMike11

7 months ago

Kern dropped, changed everything, and now we have a mere 100 vote gap. But the schifties have to wait until the nytimes updates to sell.

0

First place in California Senate Primary?

BigMike11

7 months ago

how about for the bros who bought that at 93?

1

AnEggplant

7 months ago

Pour one out for our brethren who bought Garvey at 90

First FTX bankruptcy payout?

BigMike11

7 months ago

A couple points (1) FTX subsidiaries are not party to the US bankruptcy proceedings (the US government is listed as a source). (2) It was already well-known when this market was created that FTX subsidiaries had already paid out. E.g., FTX Japan: https://www.wsj.com/articles/some-ftx-customers-get-their-money-backin-japan-at-least-3e0f2d15). (3) What is the logic for counting one subsidiary (FTX Australia), but not another (FTX Japan)? FTX Japan payments are still ongoing.

0

Trump Margin of Victory in South Carolina Primary?

BigMike11

7 months ago

Trafalgar poll says it's nip and tuck https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/SC-GOP-PPP-Poll-Report-0223.pdf

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