#554
Rank
126
Comments
49
Likes Received
26
Likes Given
grappli
1 year ago
Where are you guys watching?
grappli
1 year ago
https://www.merriam-webster.com/help/faq-compound-words
grappli
1 year ago
TAXING QUEEN IS A COMPOUND WORD
grappli
1 year ago
TAXING QUEEN IS A COMPOUND WORD
grappli
1 year ago
"taxing queen" by itself counts as a compound word. See here, open compounds https://www.merriam-webster.com/help/faq-compound-words
grappli
1 year ago
Merriam-Webster agrees: https://www.merriam-webster.com/help/faq-compound-words
grappli
1 year ago
https://www.grammarly.com/blog/grammar/open-and-closed-compound-words/ There is something called an open compound word where the compound word is made up of two words separated by a space. Taxing queen would clearly be one, and tax is a part of that compound word.
grappli
1 year ago
https://www.grammarly.com/blog/grammar/open-and-closed-compound-words/ There is something called an open compound word where the compound word is made up of two words separated by a space. Taxing queen would clearly be one, and tax is a part of that compound word.
grappli
1 year ago
fyi, you are wrong
tunatyler
1 year ago
fyi for all you tax people, taxing doesn't count
grappli
1 year ago
found the mumble at 29:42 here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h_hssN6h9A4 But I already included that in my tally and only got to 15 including taxing queen
EUROPA
1 year ago
Just double-checked. It was definitely 15x tax. One was mumbled and barely caught by the mic, but 15x on tape confirmed.
grappli
1 year ago
timestamp for the mumble? Or in what context did he say it?
EUROPA
1 year ago
Wrong. 15 without "taxing queen". One time, me mumbled "tax", which the mic barely caught.
grappli
1 year ago
timestamp for the mumble?
EUROPA
1 year ago
For everyone wondering: He mentioned "tax" 15 times without "taxing queen", otherwise it would be 16. One time, he mumbled "tax", which the mic barely caught.
grappli
1 year ago
every other mention was either taxes or taxpayer or tax-deductible
grappli
1 year ago
15 tax - one of which is "taxing queen" - definitely in dispute territory
grappli
1 year ago
15 tax - one of which is "taxing queen" - definitely in dispute territory
grappli
1 year ago
Atlanta
Jpp30
1 year ago
why would he says black men?
grappli
1 year ago
https://pastebin.com/s6FDC4KB
grappli
1 year ago
IT's 29. Someone dispute please
grappli
1 year ago
Border = 30, kamala = 30
grappli
1 year ago
Checking border now
grappli
1 year ago
KAMALA 30 LETS GO
grappli
1 year ago
2 more kamalas
grappli
1 year ago
19
BiggieChungus
1 year ago
border at 18?
grappli
1 year ago
Border is getting up there
grappli
1 year ago
This ain't a moment of silence
grappli
1 year ago
Border 15 is done
grappli
1 year ago
Tampon Tim will never be president.
grappli
1 year ago
5 borders
grappli
1 year ago
Nope
n/a
1 year ago
Did he say Palestinian?
grappli
1 year ago
Also, Nancy Pelosi came out against the bill. Nancy tends to get what she wants
Justifax
1 year ago
He might have just been playing to the crowd which was a bunch of techies.
grappli
1 year ago
The only actual comments we heard from Newsom were skeptical of the bill. He's also said that AI needs to be regulated on the federal level. There are pressure campaigns that make it not 100%, but the chances are higher for a veto than for a signature imo.
grappli
1 year ago
Why do you think they can't replace him? It says they can right in the regulations. Just the ballot would still have his name listed.
ACat
1 year ago
It’s sort of hard to tell the story as to why this man doesn’t just sit in his office and continue to exist as a zombie campaign. They can’t replace him, and NC requires write-in candidates to turn in a petition with signatures 90 days in advance, which nobody did, so there’s no even a write-in option for governor on NC ballots.
grappli
1 year ago
SPD leads in Zweitstimmen - by 0.01%. This is over
grappli
1 year ago
AfD lead down to 0.19%
grappli
1 year ago
0.41% lead now
grappli
1 year ago
No. You don't know how the election system works. The Zweitstimmen is used to determine the proportion of seats. Erststimmen is for a particular candidate.
Car
1 year ago
33,62 to 33,65
grappli
1 year ago
Lol, if you spam it enough people might believe
432
1 year ago
VERY tight majority of non counted votes still from AFD regions
grappli
1 year ago
That's Erststimmen, we probably use Zweitstimmen
Car
1 year ago
33,62 to 33,65
grappli
1 year ago
0.54%
grappli
1 year ago
0.68%
FamilyCapital
1 year ago
1,04%
grappli
1 year ago
AfD lead down to 0.68%
grappli
1 year ago
Not true, look at the map. It's actually the opposite
432
1 year ago
looking good SPD dominated regions gave nearly all votes.Majority of not counted votes are from AFD regions
grappli
1 year ago
AfD leads by 0.9% now
grappli
1 year ago
1.1%
JohannesWalterReich
1 year ago
IT'S GETTING CLOSER, SPD lead in the predictins has now shrunk to 1%
grappli
1 year ago
Now down to 1%
grappli
1 year ago
AfD lead down to 1.3
grappli
1 year ago
I believe we are at 7 millions
grappli
1 year ago
This Fed has been pretty cautious. I don't see any reason why they'd jump to a 50 pt decrease.
grappli
1 year ago
U so smart
432
1 year ago
Everyone comparing last weeks friday with today.You guys are aware we had a major debate and after such kind of event most polls provide new data ?I would be suprised if no new polls will be added today since everyone was tracking that event
grappli
1 year ago
Agreed, 1.4 is possible if a +1 or lower poll drops. But I think there are slim chances of that
BabyYoda12
1 year ago
yeah but last week no polls were released on Friday what I remember. For sure there wont be enough to move it to 2-2.4. Since 1.4 is too close still a slight chance
grappli
1 year ago
How many MAGAs are we at? 2?
grappli
1 year ago
There hasn't really been that much movement on the last days most of the time
432
1 year ago
tomorrow there will be some movements.On the last days there are always some movements
grappli
1 year ago
This is with both Reuters and Morning Consult included
grappli
1 year ago
1.5 now
grappli
1 year ago
1.5 now
grappli
1 year ago
Right, it will be 1.5. If the last 3 or 4 are removed, it becomes 1.4.
SaulG
1 year ago
Incorrect. Its 1.5
grappli
1 year ago
That's not how it works, you have to calculate the averages for each candidate and then find the difference
MrNFT
1 year ago
Existing Polls: (3 - 1 + 0 + 1 + 2 - 1 + 3 + 0 + 3 + 1 + 1 + 4 + 1) New Polls: (-2 + 5). Existing + New = 20. 20 / (13 existing + 2 new) = 1.33
grappli
1 year ago
No, the average will be 1.5 is nothing is removed
MrNFT
1 year ago
By last 2 I mean ABC News/Ipsos 8/23 - 8/27 RV — 50 46 Harris +4 Yahoo News 8/22 - 8/26 1194 RV 3.0 47 46 Harris +1
grappli
1 year ago
there's a pretty cool website called google.com, you can find all kinds of stuff there
BabyYoda12
1 year ago
Source?
grappli
1 year ago
New Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Kamala with a +5 (!!) lead
grappli
1 year ago
rasmussenreports.com
432
1 year ago
where you got that poll ?
grappli
1 year ago
Yeah, even if they remove the 3 oldest polls it's still +1 Harris
Speculo
1 year ago
this is over for 0-0,9 I think 😭
grappli
1 year ago
So this means it's confirmed Rasmussen isn't dropping today
MrNFT
1 year ago
https://x.com/Mark_R_Mitchell/status/1834245316670837073
grappli
1 year ago
It will be released today, probably very soon
MrNFT
1 year ago
Depends if rasmussen released today
grappli
1 year ago
Yeah, they added NY Post earlier today
n/a
1 year ago
Not true lol
grappli
1 year ago
I don't think they're gonna remove any polls. Usually they do that when they add a new one and they already had the chance to do that today.
grappli
1 year ago
Rasmussen will publish tomorrow morning
MrNFT
1 year ago
Incoming Rasmussen, they just published a biden one
grappli
1 year ago
Probably gonna be at least a few more days until we see any relevant polls released
n/a
1 year ago
Kamala KILLED it in the debate!!!! This can easily get up to Kamala Leads by 1.5 to 1.9 in the next 2 days!!!
grappli
1 year ago
Yeah, looks like it will go to the multi-candidate average. Still, promising sign for other polls being lower
mombil
1 year ago
I believe the new YouGov Poll for the Economist 45-45 down from +2 Harris last time will not count in the RCP average :(
grappli
1 year ago
I bet 1 million dollars Trump says the word "the"
HLAHart
1 year ago
can I bet on a word not listed above? like create my own listing
grappli
1 year ago
True, and RCP has been known to remove favorable polls to bring down Harris's average. Plus the Rasmussen guy will probably drop a massive Trump poll given the recent poor results for Harris. I'm gonna switch to 0-0.9
432
1 year ago
1.2 and Rassmussen will be +3/+4 which will bring it down to 0.8-0.9
grappli
1 year ago
The Rasmussen poll guy tweeted that it looks like Trump +3. So that's what I'd expect. Plus we might see another +2 Kamala poll out this week
432
1 year ago
1.2 and Rassmussen will be +3/+4 which will bring it down to 0.8-0.9
grappli
1 year ago
+3 would still be 1. +4 would be 0.9
432
1 year ago
1.2 and Rassmussen will be +3/+4 which will bring it down to 0.8-0.9
grappli
1 year ago
I predict Magnus will win, but went with Alireza here because it has the better value. It's gonna be a close one
grappli
1 year ago
https://abcnews.go.com/538/polling-averages-work/story?id=109364028 I would suggest reading through here as this will give you a better idea than any speculation anybody here could do
5to5000
1 year ago
I'm noticing a noticeable cliff at the 2 week point, which could just be a coincidence, but it seems they have a cliff there hardcoded. Cant be arsed to look into archive.org data to super confirm it, but its probably there
grappli
1 year ago
They do an exponential weighted moving average, which means the weights drop off pretty quickly after a certain point. Depends on what value is chosen for the weight, which isn't very clear
5to5000
1 year ago
RE: woefully misinformed: that's the hard_stop variable. However I'm almost certain they have a "soft_stop" variable thats 2 weeks out. They don't pubish their entire source code, but using the raw json data, I did a simple regression analysis and found a dropoff in weight for polls beyond 2 weeks. Of course it's hard to confirm 100%, but the numbers point that way.
grappli
1 year ago
Ah okay, maybe I miscalculated. I just looked at the numbers in crosstabs. I'll double check
kekkone
1 year ago
Correct. We should see the new data point soon. I can only see the rounded up percents which show Kamala at -5. Do you have more accurate data?
grappli
1 year ago
New NYT/Siena poll has Trump +1. Should shift the average below 1.5
grappli
1 year ago
New NYT/Siena poll released this morning has Kamala at -4 favorability. I'm very doubtful we will go positive today.
grappli
1 year ago
You are woefully misinformed. You can literally read all their methodology. They keep polls in their average for at least 30 days, applying a decay function for weighting. This isn't RCP
5to5000
1 year ago
We can also look at the raw data, and see the falloff from Friday and Saturday, where no polls were added. If the same pattern holds for Sunday where no polls are released, it won't be enough on it's own
grappli
1 year ago
And how do you see results for Sept 6? We will need to see the previous day's value for resolution
OldMan
1 year ago
Provided you have the graph set to the same date it is not different across screen resolutions. Sept 7 shows Unfavorable 46.6 and Favourable as 46.5 regardless of screen resolution (scroll right if needed).
grappli
1 year ago
It will probably resolve on Monday, when the graph is updated
babendums
1 year ago
This Resolves Yes, as long as we have literally any favourability (not unfavorability), positive number on Sunday right?
grappli
1 year ago
Looks like somebody bought up all the no's
midastouch
1 year ago
What happened here? Does someone know something?
grappli
1 year ago
They actually somewhat downweight large polls if you look at their methodology
cryptofreedom
1 year ago
Oh man this is definitely flipping to yes. There's two polls not in fivethirtyeight yet. One is Rasmussen with Trump +1, one is MorningConsult with Kamala +3 and a much bigger sample size (which is weighted heavier)
grappli
1 year ago
Please do it, I can't deal with the idiots here anymore
caesar
1 year ago
This can be proposed now right....
grappli
1 year ago
He knows not to buy 24,139 shares
Pidor🐓
1 year ago
what does goat trader trumpito know?
grappli
1 year ago
Don't unload now Trumpers, I have some capital coming in soon. Can you hold on for a few more hours to keep the price low for me?
grappli
1 year ago
Instead of donating your money to Kamala holders, next time just donate it to your local homeless shelter. It will do a lot more good in the world
sigh
1 year ago
take it from the former #3 Kamala holder: Kamala is favored, but Trump is undervalued
grappli
1 year ago
RIP to one of your Russians
mewmew1
1 year ago
3 russians vs 1 ginger fag
grappli
1 year ago
Because the averages of the candidates both went up with the ABC poll. But the margin stayed the same
L114
1 year ago
not sure why it went up quite a bit on the ABC poll when it didnt change the average and just replaced the old
grappli
1 year ago
I really wish I would have had more money to throw into this market
grappli
1 year ago
Nah I think people here just made that up
n/a
1 year ago
Do the rules even indicate that we need polls ending 8/31? RCP has "published numbers" on the graph for the 29th and 30th despite their most recent poll ending on the 28th.
grappli
1 year ago
You think they backdate their average? Lmao
diddy
1 year ago
ABC poll kills Kamala 23-27 days
grappli
1 year ago
Nah nothing here except "trust me bro"
EdgyUsername
1 year ago
@grappli read the threads dude, we already said it like five times. just scroll down. @pinochet want to compare profits on our accounts
grappli
1 year ago
Please explain to me then.
EdgyUsername
1 year ago
Are you aware of how RCP actually calculates its average? I once thought as you did.
grappli
1 year ago
Furthermore, go look at the weekend of the 17-18 of August. Same scenario as now, last poll released on Thursday. When the next poll was added on Sunday, the Friday average wasn't even interpolated. They just took the number from Thursday
grappli
1 year ago
So basically, assuming linear interpolation for the last 3 days, we need the average to get down to 1.2 by today for it to have been 1.6 on Friday. In the current average that means a Trump +5 has to get added today. Less than one percent chance of that happening given current poll trends. This market is so dumb
grappli
1 year ago
So basically, assuming linear interpolation for the last 3 days, we need the average to get down to 1.2 by today for it to have been 1.6 on Friday. In the current average that means a Trump +5 has to get added today. Less than one percent chance of that happening given current poll trends. This market is so dumb
grappli
1 year ago
Lots of pressure on Newsom not to sign. I'm pretty sure he won't. The only question is whether the assembly overrides the veto
grappli
1 year ago
1 and a half hours usually for Trump, sometimes more sometimes less
BedardiRaja
1 year ago
how long do these rallies usually go?
grappli
1 year ago
2 so far
CavaSoTasty
1 year ago
still 1 comrade kamala?
grappli
1 year ago
If I had to guess, they might be ignoring Ipsos because it included Kennedy. Let's see about the Quinnipiac poll, which should be out in a couple of hours
grappli
1 year ago
Is that from official sources? There's supposedly also a potential Quinnipiac in the pipeline which also might shift the average
SkillzThatKillz
1 year ago
Apparently they aren’t adding Ipsos
grappli
1 year ago
https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/biden_administration/election_2024_trump_48_harris_46 Rasmussen just dropped, +2 Trump
grappli
1 year ago
It replaces it
Au-gust
1 year ago
Does the new rasmussen get replace the previous one? or will there then be two rasmussens?
grappli
1 year ago
I'm guessing they're waiting for Rasmussen to drop before adding the Ipsos poll. But I'm sure they'll add both at some point today
grappli
1 year ago
Looks like they included the USA Today poll in the multi-candidate average but decided not to include it in the head-to-head (which is what this market is based on)
SkillzThatKillz
1 year ago
Does RCP include USAT?
grappli
1 year ago
Looks like they included the USA Today poll in the multi-candidate average but decided not to include it in the head-to-head (which is what this market is based on). So I doubt 2.5 is gonna happen
TheOneB
1 year ago
+4 Reuters, +5 USA Today, likely to gain a point from the previous Rasmussen poll and looking to potentially tie or be up a point on Fox News poll... the +2.5 dream is real
grappli
1 year ago
Fabi plays Anish with the white pieces to finish the tournament - good chances to win that one. I think he's still in this.
grappli
1 year ago
Lol no shot for Anish, I think it would have to be astronomical odds for him to catch up at this point
Dasser
1 year ago
Anish Giri
grappli
1 year ago
I only count 14 bro
SkillzThatKillz
1 year ago
The funny thing is: RCP did their math wrong. If you do it yourself it’s not 1.5-1.9. But they probably won’t update it before noon
grappli
1 year ago
Gg
MalikNabers
1 year ago
Gg
grappli
1 year ago
No I did the math and it's exactly 1.5
SkillzThatKillz
1 year ago
Even though the margin using RCP’s numbers is 1.4286, the website still mistakenly says 1.5. Crazy good luck by the Yes 1.5-1.9 crew.
grappli
1 year ago
The only ones I can find that are close to that are that Hitler-like and Barron-like were allowed for Trump speeches. So maybe I am misremembering but I don't know how you can argue that that is a compound word but joyful isn't
0x34701aD429Dc23A669cd44F03cF6b2e5e86DCeB4-1723326922654
1 year ago
Any specific ones you remember? I’d like to research this further.
grappli
1 year ago
Then why have markets allowed for compound words with adjectives before? (old, weird come to mind recently and neither of those are nouns)
factman
1 year ago
Regarding "joyful" - folks, "joyful" is not a compound word. A compound word fitting here would be a noun made of two nouns, such as "sunflower" - "sun" and "flower". "ful" is not a word, it's a suffix for making adjectives, such as "playful". Therefore, it is conclusively not a compound word.
grappli
1 year ago
Another argument for Joy yes: past markets with similar wording have included examples of acceptable words. A lot of times those didn't fall under the strict definition of compound words that a lot of people are using here. I'd go through the old markets and highlight those examples.
grappli
1 year ago
there's some free no crypto there if you need something
tomxeth
1 year ago
Where is my free MAGA money?
grappli
1 year ago
I submitted a support ticket but it says they take 2 days to reply
Munners
1 year ago
Why this not final yet?
grappli
1 year ago
Not final why?
grappli
1 year ago
At least one from what I heard
mango-lassi
1 year ago
Inflation count?
grappli
1 year ago
ah okay, well still they're gonna lose money on that dispute
BlackSky123
1 year ago
It was proposed early when they were still yapping
grappli
1 year ago
Censorship, tesla, mars all were so close to being mentioned. That's gotta hurt
grappli
1 year ago
who tf is disputing crypto
grappli
1 year ago
can't believe they said tampon before half of those things
grappli
1 year ago
lol he totally skipped over the censorship thing
grappli
1 year ago
Y'all better start dumping
grappli
1 year ago
Same, would have been a better deal. People are dumb
Wallonie4Congress
1 year ago
Damn, wish I could have placed my bet now
grappli
1 year ago
So glad I dumped Germany and bought France
grappli
1 year ago
me too man... this thing is taking way too long to resolve
oysterfuckmcgee
1 year ago
It's my money and I want it now