Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

HaterzLoserz

1 day ago

Well, I had my thesis and went big, its what I do. May have been caught out by the signals coming from adam and samson, but we will see how its goes. lots of suspicious stuff with these fortune and forbes links imo, but we will see.

5

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

HaterzLoserz

1 day ago

https://x.com/Excellion/status/1843809547997327801

1

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

HaterzLoserz

1 day ago

fill me more plz

3

RoemerNewsCapital

1 day ago

HL in full blown delusion.

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

HaterzLoserz

1 day ago

You been Billy from FUDlandistan?

0

Justifax

1 day ago

It's possible it's not Todd but if so Billy Brambough just took a serious hit to his career.

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

HaterzLoserz

1 day ago

Thesis still good then, buy more.

2

ArtVandalay

1 day ago

HaterzLoserz, Sitrep?

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

HaterzLoserz

1 day ago

whats changed?

0

ArtVandalay

1 day ago

HaterzLoserz, Sitrep?

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

HaterzLoserz

1 day ago

yep dont fall for it, only scam accounts sharing on twitter

6

n/a

1 day ago

Forbes "article" nothing but a comment on the clip we all saw earlier today on Todd roleplaying as satoshi with adam behing him. paid articles....

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

HaterzLoserz

1 day ago

this is a factual statement, adam would be factual

1

Justifax

1 day ago

The one problem is the 'controversial' clue. Would Adam really be 'controversial'?

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

HaterzLoserz

1 day ago

I will not be profit taking on the way up. We holding to 100c boys

14

·

Liked by n/a, n/a and 12 others

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

HaterzLoserz

1 day ago

Why hello squad ^^

7

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

HaterzLoserz

1 day ago

The director of this doc is actually my brother in law, Bibi Netanyahu is my fairy godfather and Zelensky was my sponsor at my Holy Communion. Im an insider you could say.

5

ArtVandalay

1 day ago

HaterzLoserz, you need to leave some for the insiders!

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

HaterzLoserz

1 day ago

Why sir, thats how I got where I am today :D

1

Justifax

1 day ago

I love HL but he takes wild big swinging dick bets sometimes. Just a heads up.

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

HaterzLoserz

1 day ago

Thank you sir, good luck with your bets also ^

2

n/a

2 days ago

I pray so fucking hard that HaterzLozers makes 600k on this beautiful autumn day

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

HaterzLoserz

2 days ago

Satoshi never sold any bitcoins

6

n/a

2 days ago

why are they meeting in what looks like an abandoned railway station in the leak. thats my question

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

HaterzLoserz

2 days ago

weak hands always get shaken out

0

trav

2 days ago

goingsocial is dumping and haterzloserz is doubling down

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

HaterzLoserz

2 days ago

that is the correct philosophy for Bitcoin, hence why Adam is standing in the background as his student gives the answers to the uninitiated, smiling. However, its a shit answer for a documentary, we cant to know who Satoshi is. They likely give the story of "We are all Satoshi" and then cut back to saying "but we werent happy with that answer and have other ideas imo"

2

topblaster

2 days ago

peter Todd Leak?

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

HaterzLoserz

2 days ago

Hello Samson! Must be fun watching along with all this and seeing how it all works first person for you :D

2

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

HaterzLoserz

2 days ago

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1843726130991481223

1

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

HaterzLoserz

2 days ago

he doesnt even have a wikipedia page :D Satoshi hid his identity so well :D

0

n/a

2 days ago

But Peter Todd is American and Satoshi writes in British English...

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

HaterzLoserz

2 days ago

I wonder is Samson is being honest with his framing here, of if hes actually just playing everyone despite being aware of these markets and how it would effect his reputation if he fucked around. The only alternative to Adam i see is "We are all Satoshi" as an ending, which sucks ass, and the director already said they arrive at a specific name, so if its not Adam, as far as I can tell either Samson or the Director have straight up lied about the facts after they were aware of this market. Cant see it, hence ive taken the position.

6

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

HaterzLoserz

2 days ago

Imagine being a no holder and seeing this sequence of tweets hahahaha https://x.com/Faytuks/status/1843719814067712293

1

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

HaterzLoserz

2 days ago

we are literally trusting HBOs documentary as the source here tho :D

2

toshiro

2 days ago

LOL, Adam Back’s definitely not Satoshi, like he hasn’t said that a million times already. But sure, let’s trust HBO’s documentary over the guy himself, because why wouldn’t Satoshi keep denying it, right? And yeah, obviously Satoshi’s lining up interviews now… totally checks out.

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

HaterzLoserz

2 days ago

Seems to me like we are all good unless RoamerNews is Samson Mow playing the markets lol

0

informed

2 days ago

Seems that market is realizing that Adam Back is being held down by single whale

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

HaterzLoserz

2 days ago

Talking shit an hour ago and now you sold out :D hahahahaha

0

tsybka

2 days ago

I placed a limit order on the Kursk 2024 market. You can fill it if you need liquidity.

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

HaterzLoserz

2 days ago

99% of people are still massively discounting how little Israels current govt respects the Biden Admin, and as their days are numbers, there are fewer consequences to ignoring them. Biden has been Bibis bitch for a while now. In reality, Bibi just called Biden and told him what was going to happen, not the other way around. People need to understand we live in a different world than 12 months ago.

1

ArtVandalay

2 days ago

Gallant scurrying to DC was too big a red herring for me. Why the need if CENTCOM just came to him? Anyways, let's see what happens.

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

HaterzLoserz

2 days ago

youve commented randomly about me on markets several times today, rent free :D

0

Car

2 days ago

OOOOOOOO ITS HAPPENING

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

HaterzLoserz

2 days ago

If you following, on a short term market like this just make sure you keep enough in reserve to load up again next week ^ that would be my plan if i lost this lol, win it back next week, Strike will happen. just a matter of when

2

ArtVandalay

2 days ago

TBH, this morning my faith started to waiver.

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

HaterzLoserz

2 days ago

https://x.com/AJABreaking/status/1843699524415443001 ^^ Y'all are gonna learn that I am the best geopolitics predictooooor on this site very fast.

4

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

HaterzLoserz

2 days ago

car about to break $100k PnL off this volatility and bounce lol

0

Car

2 days ago

OOOOOOOO ITS HAPPENING

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

HaterzLoserz

2 days ago

https://x.com/AJABreaking/status/1843699020423664025

1

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

HaterzLoserz

2 days ago

https://x.com/AmichaiStein1/status/1843698432764194830 gotta have permission to strike before Gallant goes to the US ^

1

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

HaterzLoserz

2 days ago

Interesting https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1843692879308566980

0

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

HaterzLoserz

2 days ago

Nobody cares what passport Satoshi holds bro, he could be North Korean for all we care

2

HB76

2 days ago

This market is not about who is Satoshi. Its about the theory presented by HBO tonight. The most shockwaves would be created if a non US citizen would be proposed as Satoshi.

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

HaterzLoserz

2 days ago

Seems ive really sorted the haterz from the regular people on the site, all these terminally online weirds who pickup the pennies i drop on this site are awful loud today

1

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

HaterzLoserz

2 days ago

A slightly more sophisticated piece of software then MS paint might be needed

0

Ylescaps

2 days ago

so this looks like a leak from the documentary https://x.com/DaveKleimanEth but dont take my word on it .

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

HaterzLoserz

2 days ago

Someone done fucked up https://x.com/kann_news/status/1843676367743037860

1

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

HaterzLoserz

2 days ago

https://x.com/EndGameWW3/status/1843682224392298600

0

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

HaterzLoserz

2 days ago

Hint: this can be made in MS Paint in 11 seconds

5

Ylescaps

2 days ago

so this looks like a leak from the documentary https://x.com/DaveKleimanEth but dont take my word on it .

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

HaterzLoserz

2 days ago

so so good

0

gun

2 days ago

the retards buyin Kleinman at 15c is too funny

Israel Military response against Iran when?

HaterzLoserz

2 days ago

Exceptions are made for matters of life and death in Jewish Faith.

2

dav1

2 days ago

Friday to Saturday is Yom Kippur, day of attonement, where they ask God for forgiveness. Would be a bit special if they strike and then start Yom Kippur...

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

HaterzLoserz

2 days ago

being a bit selective about court documents there ey buddy?

0

PQL

2 days ago

He signed NDA with Craig, check court docs.

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

HaterzLoserz

2 days ago

Gavin Andresen has stated that he knows who Satoshi is and has seen hard evidence, but has signed NDAs and would never tell regardless. Interesting that he used to work for Adam Back over at Blockstream. I dont know of many Cypherpunk OGs who go around signing NDA with randomers claiming to be Satoshi. However, the doc doesnt need to reach any reasonable conclusions, they can pick what evidence they want to create the best story they can, which is their goal. If its other after all the new account activity there in the last couple days, this site is turning into a clown fest as it gets more mainstream attention lol

4

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

HaterzLoserz

2 days ago

The Directors statements and Adam + Samsons statements actually make it seem like Adam is the answer if you look at the statements closely, what tense they are in etc. Hence my bet, however, the current activity on Other makes me think that is where the insiders are buying, nots of new accounts with their entire PnL on this market stacking in there. Made me get cold feet. If other does win, I know what my assumption is gonna be anyway :P

2

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

HaterzLoserz

2 days ago

Kleiman had no price action on here before the Leak, whoever had the info would have bought before hand if it was real. You dont drop the leak first without buying big time. the big buys on kleiman came in after the leak, which makes it seem like a setup to dupe unwise. If I lose $150k betting that the person Craig Wright said helped him with bitcoin, actually didnt invent bitcoin and this is just a bunch of cultists doing their thing

0

midastouch

2 days ago

Even if the "leak" is real, nobody but insiders are aware of the format of the show. Each episode could be a journey of ruling out candidates for who Satoshi is until the last episode. Kleiman could've been written off early on and shown in the credits of the corresponding episode.

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

HaterzLoserz

2 days ago

apologies, i can say im at least buying up at 96-97c and didnt catch any of the orders an 90c ^

0

MaxShorter

2 days ago

i need a guide first time using polymarket and i got rekt buying yes kleiman shares lmao

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

HaterzLoserz

2 days ago

you made a very very e/v positive bet in my estimations, well played. If the directors statements are true, along with adam + samsons recent tweets, it actually lines up imo

0

goingsocial

2 days ago

I have 160k shares of what Occam's razor says is the winning choice, yet even if I'm wrong, I will still profit as long as none of the corpses listed here faked their death, fooled their loved ones, have worked hard for years since to encourage Bitcoin adoption, and then sat down with this filmmaker for an interview. One of the most amazing markets in the history of this site. Polymarket will always have a competitive advantage over other prediction market creators because of the staggering number of utter morons they can lure in from the crypto world. Absolutely unmatched on any other investing platform.

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

HaterzLoserz

2 days ago

Does someone have a guide for David Kleiman believers on how to use the limit buy option?

3

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

HaterzLoserz

2 days ago

Nice to meet you Joe, we are very happy to have you at the site!

2

n/a

2 days ago

Ya'll say CSW is a fraud but you is scared to bid him down to 0.1 like Elon!!!!!!!!

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

HaterzLoserz

2 days ago

I am commander of the IDF

3

0x429aff1255d8bCABe0AD46f610f8B03034E68070-1711892138111

2 days ago

@HaterzLoserz drop 60k on a weekly bet. why

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

HaterzLoserz

2 days ago

Keeping 1m shares as a memoire for this market :P

3

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

HaterzLoserz

3 days ago

yo parth was that actually your life savings bro? jfc

0

n/a

3 days ago

Completely

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

HaterzLoserz

3 days ago

Yes actually, in cases like this there is a very good argument they just shouldnt vote

2

Greta-Tunafish

3 days ago

Since Kevin Chan is somewhat of a public figure, let him know what you think about his expertise on the Middle East and that he largely carried the vote. He also couldn't have voted

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

HaterzLoserz

3 days ago

Chad is ok I believe, Ive not 100% confirmed his ID, but the person I believe is Chad is handling it well enough. Dont worry about Chad. Worry about the dude who put his life savings of like $4k on this yesterday lmao

4

Cryptonord

3 days ago

I don't know who or from where Chad is, his enthusiasm or source of money but I feel Very Sad for him. Chad DM me @stonkyay Twitter to say you are okay or else I would be crying for you :(

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

HaterzLoserz

3 days ago

If you fully believed that you would never have merged those 25k shares, and youd still be at 105k

0

🤺JustKen

3 days ago

I have been very critical of Uma over the years. To me, though, this is very misplaced blame in this case. Yes holders deluded themselves to a degree that I've never seen before. It was like a mass hysteria event.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

HaterzLoserz

3 days ago

how much trading vol you done in the last 5 days on this market sir? lol

0

Car

3 days ago

its a fair system that follows rules and deadlines. Without it, Polymarket would be a mess.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

HaterzLoserz

3 days ago

The way UMA is designed and distributed right now makes for a very toxic system as far as I can see. The main bulk consists of UMA team members who vote with enough tokens to achieve Quorum on all disputes. Then, the main incentive to purchase large amounts of UMA outside of that actually comes from traders + arbers who want to manipulate the dispute mechanism to trade in and out of positions during the dispute or arb the final decision. This makes for a very unhealthy system where the incentive does not always amount to the most objective truth imo. Mechanisms like the reveal period, incentivise Whales not to reveal their side of the vote to supress the price and buy up more tokens for the side they think will win for example. Between the core tokens being held by 2-3 people, and this attraction of actors who seek to profit from the dispute mechanism, lack of transparency and timely visibility on whose voting unless you run a node and can code Dune requests. Its just a terrible look for any new user who gets involved in a dispute like this and encounters the process. Should be very high on Poly's to do list after the election, Polytoken and use it for their own system thats much improved. Just an analysis of the current system and its flaws, i dont necessarily want to revert this decision or anything, it is what it is.

13

·

Liked by n/a, n/a and 11 others

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

HaterzLoserz

3 days ago

The biggest fail on this market was no clarity given around the rules from PM themselves, disgraceful tbh, they abdicated responsibility of managing their own platform or avoid a controversial topic. Not a good look going forward. Being impartial is one thing, being unclear on your rules when one of the very active markets on your site is clearly hugely down to interpretation and people are betting millions on a market that doesnt have clarity. Its actually quite shocking ^ Regardless, congrats to the No's who agrued in good faith,people like Domer and Fantom are still massive pieces of shit who cant do anything but arb pennies from markets to make 0.2% pnl and call themselves smart in their little club of insecure troglodytes :D GG to everyone else, was fun.

5

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

HaterzLoserz

3 days ago

no side has to post this stuff to create liquidity for their exits

1

rozi

3 days ago

This is going strongly in the direction of No after 7% of votes and 17% voters revealed their votes, with 83% siding with No. And the Yes is still going strong on buying more shares. This is a fascinating case for a psychology paper.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

HaterzLoserz

3 days ago

A new challenger approaches

2

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

3 days ago

I think no consensus and then 50-50 is the most likely outcome here. I don't see a NO resolution considering the laundry list of news headlines and prior markets.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

HaterzLoserz

3 days ago

November closed days ago bruv

0

rozi

3 days ago

It looks like the IDF have just captured first villages in Lebanon: Odaisseh, Yaroun, and Maroun Al Ras - pending confirmation. Now, we finally can talk of an invasion and intent to control territory without any doubt.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

HaterzLoserz

3 days ago

Its been a pleasure folks, hope noone bet more than they can afford to lose. Im gonna go down with the ship if we lose anyway. If nothing else, use this as a learning experience about the dispute process and who the intelligent + good faith debaters you saw on both sides are. Will come in use for future on the platform. After DDing the process more, seems like Kev and btl will try resolve fairly and consistently and that should be enough to seal it in that direction. Regardless, this market is now polymarket history and will be referenced for many many years. GG

10

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

HaterzLoserz

4 days ago

made more money than anyone on this invasion so far, quite down

1

Car

4 days ago

What a silly way to lose your profits from the last few weeks HaterzLoserz

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

HaterzLoserz

4 days ago

Im back to the 70k shares i had before Sept30th ;)

13

·

Liked by n/a, chad and 11 others

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

HaterzLoserz

4 days ago

exactly :P

2

BigMike11

4 days ago

Or is it also that we should throw out all evidence for yes based on a one-time technicality that will obviously not be followed for any other market?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

HaterzLoserz

4 days ago

Gather around comrades, for the next 24 hours will define our age, define men from boys and forge legends onchain. We will snatch victory from the clutches of tyrants and pronounce a new age of justice and fairness in our sacred kingdom! Now rest well lads, for tomorrow, WE RIDE!

13

·

Liked by n/a, n/a and 11 others

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

HaterzLoserz

4 days ago

Team No should have sent their best

4

BigMike11

4 days ago

Just waking up here. Is Team No's argument still that the offensive which commenced Monday night is not the same one that continued Tuesday morning, based on zero evidence whatsoever?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

HaterzLoserz

4 days ago

If we cant agree on fundamentals like this, then just shut it down. The rigging accusations shall continue until morale improves.

7

50-Pence

4 days ago

Good Evening Frens. Lots of disagreement and fighting. Lets just remember, no matter what happens, these truths we hold to be self-evident: if your side loses this was rigged and if your side wins you are a scammer.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

HaterzLoserz

4 days ago

he he wins, ill distribute balaclavas on the street for a day

2

Greta-Tunafish

4 days ago

If Car loses 20k in this scam attempt, I will distribute baklava on the street for a day

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

HaterzLoserz

4 days ago

Welcome friend, long time admirer of your work.

1

Meow.Zedong

4 days ago

The Chairman is in.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

HaterzLoserz

4 days ago

:D

0

Car

4 days ago

ok DMd!

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

HaterzLoserz

4 days ago

so good

0

0xfb67afb55ab7dcaf744c67f8a25bc4a30aca4a48

5 days ago

how ROTTEN does your brain have to be, to bid your last $100 in this world on Elon Musk inventing Bitcoin? 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

HaterzLoserz

4 days ago

sir, those were private messages

8

RaidsAreNotInvasions

4 days ago

Anonymous sources have confirmed to me that the Polymarket user "chad" is in fact Lt. Col. "A" of the Israeli 98th division

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

HaterzLoserz

5 days ago

legend

1

BigMike11

5 days ago

Your friendly reminder that: "The IDF's invasion of southern Lebanon late Monday night was led by Division 98 and its commander, Brig. Gen. Guy Levi"... "Egoz Commander Lt. Col. "A" told the troops right before going in, "We have a great honor to write history in the North just like we did in Gaza. We started with lower-grade operations, but today, we are starting a more substantial invasion in order to return the northern residents to their homes. This is a substantial matter because we have not invaded Lebanon since 2006." https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-821158

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

HaterzLoserz

5 days ago

Wise man

1

DopeFrancis

5 days ago

Render ergo Caesaribus quae Caesaris sunt

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

HaterzLoserz

5 days ago

Good counterpoint as always, actually bring an argument stupid cunt

1

🤺JustKen

5 days ago

This is delusional, but its not any more delusional than any of the other delusional arguments.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

HaterzLoserz

5 days ago

Let me rejoin the fight by bringing it back to 50/50 parity and acquiring a nice 10k shares to participate in this glorious reconquest

22

·

Liked by n/a, n/a and 20 others

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

HaterzLoserz

5 days ago

A week ago I was the giga chad in this market, but i gladly cede the position to a true gigachad. Balls to the wall

6

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

HaterzLoserz

5 days ago

October 1st, IDF statement saying "Operation Northern Arrows will continue according to situational assessment". This statement is referencing the operation of the previous night, the events which happened within the Sept 30th timeframe eastern time. For yes to trigger, i believe we simply need to show that the events of October 2nd, 3rd, 4th etc are a continuation of Operation Northern Arrows which began on September 30th at the latest, which is why the market started moving so much. The no camp wants to argue basically that operation northern arrows isnt a thing, or somehow the events of late September 30th were separate from Operation Northern arrows, which we have established by now isnt true and so has wide media consensus. The previous P4 vote was to establish this clarity, which has now been achieved. P2 Yes. https://x.com/idf/status/1840890054819864776?s=46

3

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

HaterzLoserz

5 days ago

confirmed for those on discord im flowstate ;)

3

HaterzLoserz

5 days ago

Reason is telling me to stay out, emotions are telling me to buy yes for the lulz, better judgement has prevailed for now, but this may change at any moment. Dont get too excited though, and dont risk what you cant afford to lose (chad)

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

HaterzLoserz

5 days ago

Reason is telling me to stay out, emotions are telling me to buy yes for the lulz, better judgement has prevailed for now, but this may change at any moment. Dont get too excited though, and dont risk what you cant afford to lose (chad)

9

·

Liked by aaron28a, aaron28a and 11 others

Will Ukraine hold Kursk through 2024?

HaterzLoserz

6 days ago

Just need liquidity for the election and Israel events which have higher returns short term bud, ill be back for your asshole in november ;)

5

n/a

6 days ago

HaterzLoser is scared and leaves the sinking ship called Ukraine

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

it reopens here and people can resolve again just like before

4

Meow.Zedong

1 week ago

What happens if consensus is p-4 too early at time of proposal but there is consensus that the invasion has happened post-proposal? We’re talking a matter of hours difference. Curious how UMA resolves “too early” resolutions for markets that still have ample time such as this one?

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

the voting discussion channel on UMA discord has even more mentally ill people that this comment section. Who would have guessed.

10

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

all of the marbles scotty, all of the marbles

3

scottilicious

1 week ago

you're not tempted to offload a chunk at these sweet prices given the ambiguity?

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

"Also, if september goes NO, so should November." This is the stupidest thing youve ever typed on this site

1

Justifax

1 week ago

lol, be careful of what you wish for. Israel is not going to start suddenly 'invading'. They've either already started, or it's something else. Also, if september goes NO, so should November.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

Also, potentially unpopular opinion. Shit talking and chaos in the comments in fun. Much more fun than following rules on discord, like if someone talks shit here, you can just personally attack them to a pretty extreme degree without any repercusions, i fucking love that lol. its certainly not for every part of the internet, and polymarket users who dont like it should engage in discord, but the comments being wild west unmoderated is the way to go imo.

7

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

soft

1

-DFK-

1 week ago

It's exactly that simple. And I'd bet anything that if you had to flee your home in Southern Lebanon right now you wouldn't be joyfully considering this is a limited euphemism operation. And I don't care what you stand to lose or not. I care what you said. And I disagree with what you said. Again, that simple.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

brother, i stand to make the most out of anyone here if this resolves right now, what the fuck would i be singing a different tune for

0

-DFK-

1 week ago

The deadline for the market has nothing to do with the occurence of the said event. It happened, or it did not happen. Simple. And it did. Pretty sure if what's happening now to Lebanese people in that area was happening to you you'd be singing a different tune

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

Its not that simple though, thats a ridiculous thing to say lol.

1

-DFK-

1 week ago

The deadline for the market has nothing to do with the occurence of the said event. It happened, or it did not happen. Simple. And it did. Pretty sure if what's happening now to Lebanese people in that area was happening to you you'd be singing a different tune

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

why post a resolution this early? im even against this resolving rn tbh, we have a month, and clarity has not been achieved, thats by IDF design, they want to obscure the battlespace and movements of troops, naturally. This should be pushed back with the "too early" resolution

5

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

Why did I sell? because the best OSINT channels and sources I know, including several from Israel itself have absolutely no idea what is happening at the border, and that is by design of the IDF. They are obscuring the playing field to the point im not sure credibility will be established in time tbh. Gonna keep an eye and see which way the winds blow, best of luck to all. Always worth watching the november market too and switching over if you can convert at a price you comfy at. God Speed, your lord and saviour, HL

7

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

Hey there good looking fella, I like you a lot, youre a smart guy. Ive been told many times im the most knowledgeable, they say to me "wow, how'd you become so knowledgeable" and I say "I dont know I was just born with it, its in the Trump family I guess, the Trump name, great name, great genes, the best genes."

0

n/a

1 week ago

Check Activity YES holders, the most knowledgeable Yes holder HaterLozer sold all his Yes shares at 70-80ct. Still one to get out

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

did you hear that cunts, im the most knowledgeable. You are a great man Tenebrus, real team player. I like you a lot.

1

n/a

1 week ago

Check Activity YES holders, the most knowledgeable Yes holder HaterLozer sold all his Yes shares at 70-80ct. Still one to get out

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yCto3PCn8wo

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

https://www.reddit.com/r/Unexpected/comments/pezykg/family_pool_day_source_unknown/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button

2

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

and your mother isnt a bicycle but i still rode her around your house last night

7

n/a

1 week ago

a raid isn't an invasion

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

feeling cheeky, might resolve

4

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

https://i.pinimg.com/736x/17/a9/d1/17a9d120629f9ac9c22890ce99f709ab.jpg

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

no likes for Alanis Morrisette? fucking clownshow in here

1

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

Feels appropriate, ironically enough https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jne9t8sHpUc

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

Feels appropriate, ironically enough https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jne9t8sHpUc

2

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

I may not be Hezbollah, but im here to terrorise your wallet

16

·

Liked by n/a, n/a and 14 others

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

yeaaahh this is kind of a lot lol ^ "The 2024 Israeli invasion of Lebanon started on 30 September"

1

Adamg01

1 week ago

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_invasion_of_Lebanon even wikipedia now has it

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

90s classics, its the vibe rn tbh https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FTQbiNvZqaY

2

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

would really help us out with opsec if you guys in the media could just stop doing your job for a few hours. Regards, IDF

1

Justifax

1 week ago

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1840846257499025588 lol

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

we almost at the stage of gathering the mushrooms together for a glorious feast!

1

Justifax

1 week ago

So israel is very unhappy with al the info that got leaked out on this. Probably quite upset with twitter right about now.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

Lets all listen to 90s classics while we wait for Israel to invade another country to collect our shekels. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IGMabBGydC0

4

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

@justlaura not american and retired because of Eth ;) $8 club

2

lordvoldemort

1 week ago

HaterzLoserz thank u bro

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

No need to rush it guys, someone else can submit if they want now, im happy to wait another couple hours for more concreate close, either way its gonna close.

2

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

Free ASAP

1

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

This is what happens when the schizophrenic voices in your head have autism

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

This is what happens when the schizophrenic voices in your head have autism

3

FinallyHappening

1 week ago

The rate at which individuals with IQs below 90 (the US average is around 98) completed college has "increased approximately 6-fold in men and 10-fold in women relative to rates in the previous generation."

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

he magically shows up in the comments with random amounts of yes or no shares every day, seems to always be on the wrong side of the market, but every time i look back hes up another $1000. It doesnt make any sense, but Car has found his niche lol

4

HsB34sgg

1 week ago

How did you dump 4800 No shares so quick?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

I know it was probably a joke to call that account "DementiaDonald" when you first created it, but have you consider that the situation had progressed rapidly since then? You seem to be in denial about situations progressing rapidly....

4

FinallyHappening

1 week ago

Israeli Media is continuing to Deny that Ground Forces have entered Southern Lebanon, with a Censorship about the Operation likely set in place by the Israel Defense Force.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

Spread fables of my conquests far and wide and I shall send good tithings and blessings upon thee

1

n/a

1 week ago

smh I shouldn't have faded HaterzLoserz

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

Helping Dark Lords is what I do in my free time bro, no biggie/no diddy

6

lordvoldemort

1 week ago

HaterzLoserz thank u bro

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

over i believe yes

0

n/a

1 week ago

i presume you've won over 170000 in total today?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

everytime i look at your account you are seemingly doing something stupid and every single time you are still like +1k from where i saw your pnl last. It makes no fucking sense lol

0

Car

1 week ago

I recommend everyone to read the rules very clearly

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

Gentlemen, its been a pleasure.

17

·

Liked by n/a, n/a and 15 others

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

"im comfortable with them stopping" might be the weakest shit ever uttered by a US president lol

10

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

@fatman1 at this stage yes

0

europe123

1 week ago

"intended to establish control", how do the ones who will setlle the dispute know what Israel intentions are?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

Uma Thurman is my fairy godmother, she has all kinds of magical powers and a functional crystal ball that works specifically on Jewish peoples intentions.

4

europe123

1 week ago

"intended to establish control", how do the ones who will setlle the dispute know what Israel intentions are?

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

https://media.tenor.com/e0CSeVpiQmYAAAAM/the-big-short-200million.gif

2

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

from some filthy americans no less

1

Meow.Zedong

1 week ago

Fox News - Breaking News: Israel invasion of Lebanon “imminent”

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

If Bibi/Gallant give word to go ahead with the operation tonight, then forces begin movement immediately and we will see a shock and awe campaign in south lebanon against Hezb positions. It will be a brutal night of heavy artillery and bombing, Hezb fighters likely already awake all day and will be kept up all night and even if they are bunkered in, they want to shellshock them so Israeli troops can move more safely. Israel likely wants to establish full control over South lebanon up until the Litani. This will take some months at least. Potentially years tbh, but I doubt it. Then they will dictate their terms to everyone else and renegotiate Resolution 1701 with even better terms for Israel. Long term, UN peacekeeping troops come in to South Lebanon, IDF pulls back but retains control over entry and exit similar to a west bank situation imo. The civilians they allow back will be allowed to return home, others, wont be. Timeline is very uncertain on all of this though.

1

FamilyCapital

1 week ago

YES holder, which next few hours gonna happen? could you be more specific. TY.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

Ser, you've been losing money since ***checks account*** this month.

2

Mr.Wellington

1 week ago

The key condition for the market to resolve to "Yes" is that Israel must launch a military offensive with the intent to establish control over part of Lebanon. If the stated goal of the operation is a limited incursion, even if ground forces are deployed, and there is no mention of controlling or holding territory, it would not meet the criteria for the market to resolve to "Yes."

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

brother, I could have told you this was gonna happen when it was at 35 cent. So yeah, declaring victory at 90cent kinda works for me ^ the further 10% is just cope and people quibbling about definitions. And whatever happens tonight, this isnt a limited incursion, and it will prove to be. This is just what militaries say so dumbdumbs believe them. Russias 3 day special military operation wasnt an invasion either ofcourse lol

1

scottilicious

1 week ago

Or they're just pumping their bags so they can exit what is still a risky market.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

absolute cope lmao

8

Mr.Wellington

1 week ago

The key condition for the market to resolve to "Yes" is that Israel must launch a military offensive with the intent to establish control over part of Lebanon. If the stated goal of the operation is a limited incursion, even if ground forces are deployed, and there is no mention of controlling or holding territory, it would not meet the criteria for the market to resolve to "Yes."

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

this aint the market to trade as your first rodeo bro

3

Cochon869

1 week ago

If we put NO and no invasion happened, will win at 12:00 AM?

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1840780453541773514

2

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

that wont affect the outcome tho, reality is reality ^ not what a few crazy americans print because their editors told them to

0

Justifax

1 week ago

Worse, you may get a bunch of dumb americans denying it's an invasion similar to what they did with Rafah.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

Commences is an important word, if the troops cross the border then that is the moment it commences. it actually doesnt even matter if they succeed in their objective. Commencement is a very clearly defined word here.

0

Justifax

1 week ago

Nah, few hours isn't right. But they will likely control parts of the border for the entirety of their limited invasion. There needs to supply lines and they need to clear and control that territory for the duration.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

they need to commence the offensive which would mean boots on the ground

0

MaccabeanSoldier

1 week ago

Do actual boots of Israeli soldiers need to enter into Lebanon today? Or just the beginnings or “commencement " of that invasion process before 11:59PM EST

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

The spirit of this market was never about Israel wanting to control south lebanon forever. It was always going to be a limited time occupation to fight against Hezb. Any level of control past the border by ground forces like tanks and troops controlling a village for a few hours will suffice. All else is cope.

9

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

Any amount of time will suffice. It doesnt specify, hence "establishing control over any portion of lebanon" for any amount of time counts. Its clear they will control land other side of the border if they move in with ground troop and take control of even 1 town. Ukraine took control of villages in kursk, theres no drama about if they intend to hold them indefinitely or not. They clearly dont want them forever in fact. But that wouldnt be the point, clearly they are exerting control over a part of russia. and so will Israel be exerting control over part of lebanon to conduct their ground ops against Hezb. Its very petty for No's to argue it at this point, but its what we should expect from this site

0

Justifax

1 week ago

The problem fundamentally is one of 'duration'. Obviously control and intent to control will be satisfied, but what duration does such control have to be for? 1 day? 1 week? 1 year?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

https://media1.tenor.com/m/HQ-YT-VrifYAAAAd/gambling-horse.gif

4

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

@Justifax thats what allows me to put it all together, its the unconscious mind allowing all the moving parts to find their likely resolutions ^ Theres a reason the fabric of reality works the same as a mycelium network ;) Its Rhizomatic in nature. So is your brain. This is not a coincidence. Study Deleuze ;)

0

n/a

1 week ago

+1 respecc to HaterzLoserz as car says. He posted all the new links associated with every movement and shared everything he knew. This was a market with a big informational difference between Yes's and No's. Yes were operating with the latest information on the ground while No's were based on hopium like "NoThING eVeR hApPeNs" and "lAsT iNVaSiOn wAS iN 2006"

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

years of operating in crypto markets means im good at finding up to the minute news on topics with high info noise and many moving parts. Many layers moving at once and most are not obvious. Been following Geopolitics heavily since around 2012 and can see through the political/diplo speak. Wont always be right, but the risk/reward here was clearly favorable.

3

n/a

1 week ago

+1 respecc to HaterzLoserz as car says. He posted all the new links associated with every movement and shared everything he knew. This was a market with a big informational difference between Yes's and No's. Yes were operating with the latest information on the ground while No's were based on hopium like "NoThING eVeR hApPeNs" and "lAsT iNVaSiOn wAS iN 2006"

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

ty sir, was a fun week on here, until next time ^ Blessings to everyone, especially those who will be effected by the conflict.

3

Car

1 week ago

HaterzLoserz respect +10000

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

Its all going on election markets in november lol

3

ArtVandalay

1 week ago

Don't spend it all in the one shop!

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

Bro went to the Federation of American Scientists on Combat Operations for the definition of Combat Operations. Fucking love it. They were created just for this moment, the most significant thing theyve ever been involved in. Here we go boys!

0

abdendriel

1 week ago

Federation of American Scientists on Combat Operations (includes a lot of non fighting activities, like rear operations)

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1840762008141996339

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

will try find more, last few mins https://x.com/washingtonpost/status/1840759774108873124

1

Mr.Wellington

1 week ago

drop some links

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

just a matter of which day now imo

1

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

It is actually happening now, this will be 85%+ from here until resolve imo. Washington post quoting generals in IDF that "This incursion will be more limited than Lebanon in 2006" and similar

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

It is actually happening now, this will be 85%+ from here until resolve imo. Washington post quoting generals in IDF that "This incursion will be more limited than Lebanon in 2006" and similar

2

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

i wonder what happens next https://x.com/Faytuks/status/1840744356862435787

1

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

ty car, how you only average 90c? i thought u were holding here? u paper hand recently :( was about to ask why u not already out ^

1

Car

1 week ago

nice trade haterzloserz

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

Y'all yes holders are WILD for holding out at 94c btw, regardless of how this goes lol

4

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

I believe you may be correct on this. As someone who was a top yes holder, I couldnt in good faith argue that credible media consensus has been established and even the credible sources that have posted about the incursions might not pass the bar. Even if yes is more likely right now, 95% seems wild to me.

4

🤺JustKen

1 week ago

I gave ChatGPT two pieces of information -- the title and rules of the market, and the WSJ article. I did not give it any further prompts to tilt it in any direction. This is how it assessed the market (which I agree with): "Based on the rules you've provided for the prediction market, this market should resolve to "No." The article states that Israeli special forces have conducted small, targeted raids into southern Lebanon, but these operations do not meet the criteria outlined in your market's rules. Specifically, the rules indicate that only "ground operations involving troops on Lebanese soil for combat operations" will count, and aerial and maritime operations are excluded. Since the article does not confirm that these operations qualify as a broader ground incursion or involve troops in combat operations, and considering the market's resolution criteria relies on official confirmations from Hezbollah and Israel, there hasn't been a definitive entry of Israeli forces for combat operations as specified. Therefore, the conclusion would be "No.""

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

my ability to express myself is unreasonably obstructed by the lack of GIFs, it offends me deeply.

1

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

they need to let me pay a dollar each time to post gifs and memes in here

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

they need to let me pay a dollar each time to post gifs and memes in here

0

Justifax

1 week ago

I think poly should consider turning off comments until they figure out how to better surface sincere actors and signal

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

Ive sold so take it how you will, seems like this should resolve to yes to me personally. However, I just asked ChatGPT, and it said in the strictest sense it does not quality as combat operations. Now, fight over it in the comments please. "Sending special forces across an international border into another country to gather intelligence prior to an invasion typically does not fall under the definition of "combat operations" in the strictest military sense. However, it can depend on how the term "combat operations" is defined by the specific country or military organization." "

6

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

Not when people like Pence are buying :)

0

Foreseeable.

1 week ago

Why would you sell everything at once? doesnt that massively destroy equity? :D

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

I did in fact sell, price was too good considering the dispute and level of reporting around the special ops. If you compare price here to november invasion market, it just doesnt really make sense for an extra few % to push it for a day, rather than a month of window. if you can get out at a decent price, consider the move to november market is my advice. But idk shit :P

8

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

And yes, hard for most people to conceive of, but this is actually my play money chips, I do this for fun, Im already retired and my balance here could be wiped out and ill make it back within a few months elsewhere. Just happen to be an early crypto adopter and my brain is broken from the huge numbers, small bets just dont get the serotonin + dopamine flowing

8

Justifax

1 week ago

HL is such a whale. top holder in another market and i don't even think he's following it. heh. from the market: Israel raids three towns in southern Lebanon Our colleagues on the ground are reporting that the Israeli army launched raids on al-Abbassieh, Harouf and Bedias in southern Lebanon. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2024/9/30/israel-attacks-lebanon-live-israel-expands-strikes-on-beirut-as-105-killed

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

Havent checked on Kursk in days lol, im sure my boys in the UAF are doing just fine without me tho :D

1

Justifax

1 week ago

HL is such a whale. top holder in another market and i don't even think he's following it. heh. from the market: Israel raids three towns in southern Lebanon Our colleagues on the ground are reporting that the Israeli army launched raids on al-Abbassieh, Harouf and Bedias in southern Lebanon. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2024/9/30/israel-attacks-lebanon-live-israel-expands-strikes-on-beirut-as-105-killed

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

Not sure if true, but seems like this kicking up another gear right now https://x.com/inside_nk/status/1840708812119933105

2

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

https://x.com/Faytuks/status/1840139662402433527

2

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

useful resource here, invest in one before continuing on this site https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dictionary

0

denizz

1 week ago

"preparing for" -- can mean anything

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

Probably not, will make for interesting september market tho ^

2

MisTKy

1 week ago

https://abcnews.go.com/International/live-updates/israel-gaza-hamas-hezbollah-war/?id=113917948&entryId=114317700

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

https://x.com/ELINTNews/status/1840090463287603437

1

MisTKy

1 week ago

https://abcnews.go.com/International/live-updates/israel-gaza-hamas-hezbollah-war/?id=113917948&entryId=114317700

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

https://x.com/manniefabian/status/1840016576239530098

3

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

https://x.com/novussubsole/status/1839969767924355537

4

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

I play for keeps. We here for all the marbles car

0

Car

1 week ago

if it happens, it happens now. im sold my NO shares.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

i cant believe you've done this

0

Car

1 week ago

if it happens, it happens now. im sold my NO shares.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

we are forever friends now car, dont betray my trust

0

Car

1 week ago

if it happens, it happens now. im sold my NO shares.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

https://x.com/Liveuamap/status/1839734979628318984

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

Welcome

2

Car

1 week ago

if it happens, it happens now. im sold my NO shares.

Nasrallah remains Hezbollah leader through Oct 31?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

Israel must have had some serious intel to use bunker busters on 6 residential buildings causing hundreds of casualties. I expect he was there and its just a matter of confirming it and how many other commanders are dead, Hezb + Iran would be claiming otherwise imo. Liquidity tied up in the other markets and not enough large orders here for me to care at a decent price tho, gl all

3

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

oh my sweet summer child

2

0x64D754C44852208575F9500ED1E4F10e6AD1512A-1722659354305

1 week ago

Airstrike on beirut. Not related to any "invasion"

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

gg boys

2

MisTKy

1 week ago

https://x.com/DeItaone/status/1839683474908651967

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

https://x.com/Faytuks/status/1839691058696843295

0

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1839690483179700410

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1839690483179700410

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

1 week ago

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Middle_East

6

JebisaMess

1 week ago

Why bet on WAR when you can bet on PEACE.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

im not that sad lol, but yes zero chance this guy is IDF lol

0

MAXIMMIXER

2 weeks ago

HaterzLoserz unlog

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

You could be flipping burgers instead of burning money being a degenerate

5

denizz

2 weeks ago

You should be realizing gains while you can not scamming in the comments

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

Current situation is basically Israel stated today "Hezb must withdraw North of the Litani, the Lebanon govt must accept this and the UN sends in peace keeping troops to secure southern lebanon, or we will do it ourselves, you have 3 days.

3

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

3 day ceasefire potentially, and if these basically unattainable terms arent reached, we will see Israel cross the border

1

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

https://x.com/YairGolan1/status/1839256229157212285

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

https://x.com/YairGolan1/status/1839256229157212285

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

Also respect, you've got one of the best accounts ive seen on the site tbh, will follow ^ Solid bets all around, wp

1

just.some.guy

2 weeks ago

Respect.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

Bibi is my sugardaddy

0

abdendriel

2 weeks ago

Maybe he’s IDF, tying up his bootlaces already

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

supply lines and border crossings into syria being taken out as I type this

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

https://i.chzbgr.com/full/9303007232/hDB0D547F/photo-caption-me-after-every-terror-attack-isit-time-for-the-crusade-yet-memegeneratornet

2

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

Israel stopped respecting this administration years ago and Israel would prefer Trump getting in, showing disrespect to this admin + showing they are weak helps with that

1

Justifax

2 weeks ago

Well, I dunno. There are other things at play here, like the election.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

https://x.com/Israel_katz/status/1839229451692872019

2

FinallyHappening

2 weeks ago

Spokesperson of the Qatari Foreign Ministry: There is still no official mediation route working towards a cease-fire in Lebanon

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

Hint: Suits in the US, UK + France cant get Muhammed whose entire family was killed by the IDF to stop firing rockets at Israel from halfway across the world because they care about optics.

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

Lebanese govt hasnt controlled south lebanon in years ^

1

n/a

2 weeks ago

Supposedly, Israel isn't even going to be negotiating with Hezbollah, but rather with the Government of Lebanon... https://x.com/GOPIsrael/status/1839193292178636989

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1838987939344171369

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

I came, I saw, I established control.

3

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

still yes

0

MisTKy

2 weeks ago

My question for this market is what if they agree to truce were Hez retreats from the South and Israel enters without a fight ?

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

Juicy juicy cope tears tell you all you need to know about the direction this is going. Someone needs to establish control of this comments section

6

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

ofc they say that, the strat is escalate to deescalate. Hezb may accept a deal, if they dont tho, Israel will follow through. A deal involves Hezb ceasing operations against Israel, which means they effectively cease to exist (doesnt work for Hezb) or it just gives them time to rebuild (which doesnt work for Israel)

2

n/a

2 weeks ago

@HaterzLosers

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

State of Emergency declared for all of Israel

5

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

Id be shaking and crying if I had negative $6 PnL after $26k volume on the site. Impressive amount of effort to lose 6 dollars.

2

denizz

2 weeks ago

Israeli generals literally shaking and crying rn after reading the NYT analysis

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

yep, if Hezb agrees to not fire rockets at Israel, they might as well just cease to exist, thats their whole thing, what else are they gonna do? And Israel aint pulling out of Gaza either, so whats the answer? The answer is yes ^

3

Justifax

2 weeks ago

Israel’s gamble: Israeli officials had hoped that by scaling up their attacks over the past week, they would unnerve the group and convince it to pull farther back from the Israel-Lebanon border. For now, the opposite has happened: Hezbollah leaders have said they will continue their attacks until a cease-fire is agreed to in Gaza between Israel and Hamas, the militia’s ally. https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/09/23/world/gaza-israel-hamas-hezbollah?smid=url-share#here-are-the-latest-developments

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

Like it or not, memes are a part of war now

3

Justifax

2 weeks ago

Folks, this is war. People are dying en masse. Could you please take the scamming and overt displays of unthinking greed elsewhere.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

it is a great time to invade actually :P Option 1: accept buffer zone in north israel with no residents due to hezb rockets indefinitely, option 2: force buffer zone in lebanon, face literally no consequences again. Theres not gonna be some strong force waiting for them within 10 miles of the border when they cross.

1

🤺JustKen

2 weeks ago

Great time to invade with their forces weary and stretched thin, low global support, and high aggression from its neighbors.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

and you can tell by the comments on this market being so lively today that things are moving fast ^

3

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

Remember everyone, the people arguing for No here like Car/Xi, have no intention of holding until resolution, their intention is to sell in a week and flip trade like always. At this point, everyone knows this invasion is now a matter when, not if the IDF invades, and 5 weeks is more than enough time for real action. Good timing to get $ back for the election too. whatever happens, ill be here holding this undervalued stack ;)

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

Remember everyone, the people arguing for No here like Car/Xi, have no intention of holding until resolution, their intention is to sell in a week and flip trade like always. At this point, everyone knows this invasion is now a matter when, not if the IDF invades, and 5 weeks is more than enough time for real action. Good timing to get $ back for the election too. whatever happens, ill be here holding this undervalued stack ;)

8

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

hint: if you need to be taking advise like this, you shouldnt be short term trading and just betting on resolutions

0

Justifax

2 weeks ago

If you do buy YES, you need to be comfortable holding this for a week or more. I don't think there is going to be an invasion in the next day or so.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

now do you see how that doesnt exactly jive with your initial comment above ^

1

XiJinPing

2 weeks ago

Just sold all my NO... this looks scary... spiraling out of control fast, and it's not even October yet

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

@Louie Ah yes, true, hes still a pathetic loser tho

2

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

Lying about stuff like this, after shit talking for days + then panic selling is pathetic. I filled zero orders above 50cent. Loserz

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

Good boy

7

Car

2 weeks ago

Im buying more HaterzLoserz! Im NOT SCARED!

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

Lying about stuff like this, after shit talking for days + then panic selling is pathetic. I filled zero orders above 50cent. Loserz

2

XiJinPing

2 weeks ago

Just sold all my NO... this looks scary... spiraling out of control fast, and it's not even October yet

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

Awesome stuff, appreciated and glad you learned something, im learning myself too by doing and often making mistakes ^ and especially when im operating is size and have conviction, im more concerned about getting in at size at overall decent price. Im not so worried about what the price will be next week because i likely cant sell most of this position anyway. High conviction on these positions. Kursk + this id be very confident on, and you are right about September, its a long shot and this is better risk reward right now

1

just.some.guy

2 weeks ago

It doesn't matter for this market, but for the two Sept ending "Israel into Lebanon" mkts, one reason I like no is that on Tuesday, Netanyahu is (currently) scheduled to come to the USA, staying until the 28th. My guess is he'll be asking for permission / acquiescence to widen the war, possibly including a ground operation to the Lithani river in Lebanon, but I'd also guess nothing will start until at least he's back in Israel. Plus, Netanyahu's changing Defense Ministers right now and Hezbollah's initial response to the pager thing was proportional (so far, anyway), instead of overreaching and allowing Israel to say, "see, Hez started this war; it's Oct 7th all over again." Anyway, I owe you cosmic karma, so I figured I'd at least mention it.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

until the election is over. and Biden is weak on this topic anyway. But lots of single issue voters here and Israel knows it, they will leverage it while they can

1

sd2333

2 weeks ago

It's pretty wild how, in the reporting now, admin sources are basically admitting the President has 0 influence

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

@SWIFT Identify reveal moment: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kevin_O%27Leary

0

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

Full Disclosure: I watched the harris/trump debates on magic mushrooms and blew $60k on mention markets in one evening. Just so you all know who you are dealing with here.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

Would have guessed you had to pay women for sex alright, seem the type, if only we had a prediction market for that, would have been an easy one ay

1

denizz

2 weeks ago

yyou're about to fund my hooker budget so no parties for me

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

fair, if thats the main risk at this point tho ill take it. most israeli friends of mine agree its a matter of if, not when the invasion comes

1

scottilicious

2 weeks ago

those weeks of clearing the ground could easily last until November or December though...

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

lmao, definitely spending my evening debating an internet on whether or not a "Raid" fits into the definition of "military offensives", you must be fun at parties

0

denizz

2 weeks ago

"military offensives" are coordinated strategic maneuvers, not transient raids. Similarly transient raids are unlikely to be judged as "intended to establish control". The market will resolve to yes if e.g. they move to establish the planned buffer zone.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

the reason theres a seperate market for enter and invade is because Car made a big deal about the rules in discord lol, he was bragging about it a few days ago

2

XiJinPing

2 weeks ago

israel air strikes only became serious like 2 days ago, they'd need weeks of aerial strikes before sending ground troops, if they send at all

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

and they dont even have to succeed, this closes as soon as the offensive commences with ground troops. Theres already been leaks saying its the establish a DMZ, which will be the narrative from Israel side

1

n/a

2 weeks ago

Any portion means any portion lol

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

everyone pretending this is some up in the air or hard thing to prove, or would take a massive military effort. hezb struggling to launch more than 15 projectiles at a time today in response. Like 1 soldier was injured and a few cows. There isnt going to be some mad fighting force waiting for them within 5 miles of the border next month after they pepper the place with artillery for weeks and flatten any building that can be seen as a threat. They just need a few operating bases and control of the strategic high grounds, which isnt too hard when you bomb everything around it for weeks and then send in coordinated forces with a plan

3

denizz

2 weeks ago

Personally I think you are underestimating the seriousness of Israeli operation that would be required for this to resolve to yes.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

I think its pretty straight forward mate " will resolve to "Yes" if Israel commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Lebanon between August 6, 2024 and October 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET."

1

denizz

2 weeks ago

Personally I think you are underestimating the seriousness of Israeli operation that would be required for this to resolve to yes.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

Diamond hands tho, unless my net worth shifts 8 figures in a day, i sleep easy lol

6

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

Full Disclosure: I watched the harris/trump debates on magic mushrooms and blew $60k on mention markets in one evening. Just so you all know who you are dealing with here.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

Full Disclosure: I watched the harris/trump debates on magic mushrooms and blew $60k on mention markets in one evening. Just so you all know who you are dealing with here.

8

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

https://media1.tenor.com/m/cQFA324bqwkAAAAC/dave-chappelle-cash.gif

0

XiJinPing

2 weeks ago

@HarterzLoserz looking at daily chart "omg cup & handle breakout coming!! technical analysis ftw!!"

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

i see you taking those orders and reposting at 40/60 lol

0

XiJinPing

2 weeks ago

@HarterzLoserz looking at daily chart "omg cup & handle breakout coming!! technical analysis ftw!!"

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

"Will Russia capture Toretsk before November" - 400 yes shares, checks out

2

7153649820

2 weeks ago

No to war!

Will Russia capture Toretsk before October?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

we shall call this "Polyrussian Roulette"

0

n/a

2 weeks ago

They could fund their vodka rations by placing bets here and then throwing everything at the push for what's left of the church.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

pp means purchasing power. buy more no smol pp man

0

XiJinPing

2 weeks ago

@HarterzLoserz looking at daily chart "omg cup & handle breakout coming!! technical analysis ftw!!"

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

u hef d smol pp

0

XiJinPing

2 weeks ago

@HarterzLoserz looking at daily chart "omg cup & handle breakout coming!! technical analysis ftw!!"

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

Sir, this is a Wendy's

0

XiJinPing

2 weeks ago

@HarterzLoserz looking at daily chart "omg cup & handle breakout coming!! technical analysis ftw!!"

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

60cent yes next week seems very conservative right now ^

3

n/a

2 weeks ago

The Ayatollah called the pager attacks an act of war. Israel's begun bombing and insiders claim they're laying the groundwork for an assault. All of this escalation within less than the span of a week. You'd be foolish not to make the bet imo, free money. At the very least, expect more escalation and a rise in share price

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

the only people who type about me on here are Car + Xi. Got it.

2

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

i read Xi's lips, he said u have small willy, dis true?

0

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

I can see Ben Gvir + Bibi from my bedroom window right now, and im an expert lip reader, you dont want to go against me on this, trust.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

Seriously tho, i can lip read, trust me bro, this is important

0

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

maybe because its not a secret and that its completely obvious to everyone watching

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

I can see Ben Gvir + Bibi from my bedroom window right now, and im an expert lip reader, you dont want to go against me on this, trust.

2

Car

2 weeks ago

isnt it kinda weird that the IDF would let a top secret plan like this leak? Either the source is full of shit or the IDF is just bluffing and they wont invade.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

maybe because its not a secret and that its completely obvious to everyone watching

0

Car

2 weeks ago

isnt it kinda weird that the IDF would let a top secret plan like this leak? Either the source is full of shit or the IDF is just bluffing and they wont invade.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

A bond that you have panic/sold bought several times in the past week. Hows that high frequency bond trading you doing going Xi? :P

0

XiJinPing

2 weeks ago

NO is a 60c bond btw, ty for donation

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

and thankfully, the land by the lebanon border is largely unpopulated by now, this is not like Gaza and so densely populated, and the actions against Hezbollah been relatively targetted in comparison as of yet.

0

Car

2 weeks ago

also, i truly believe in the invasion, however not an invasion with the intend to establish control. I hold 4000 Y in the "forces enter lebanon" market.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

brother, you just came in here with the "but Hitler also" line

3

Car

2 weeks ago

whats so bad at selling NO at 65-71 and now buying back in after this "bad" news dropped?

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

nice, congrats if so and good luck ;) but definitely weak sauce posting

1

Car

2 weeks ago

a few more days and i doubled my money by trading the volatility. Then I can hold NO risk free! :)

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

me too!

0

Car

2 weeks ago

i love trading!

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

10k yesterday to 5k shares today, nerves building, usual pattern, weak stuff car, weak stuff

5

Car

2 weeks ago

hitler also had plans to take over the whole world

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

Also, hint: they dont just take a few miles for the buffer, they need more, thats just what you say first for PR and face less resistance

1

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

https://x.com/Faytuks/status/1837945493780873460

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

https://x.com/Faytuks/status/1837945493780873460

2

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

so many haterz and loserz today lol

1

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

Because im not a dishonest degenerate like most cunts on this godforsaken site. Im an honest degenerate who will tell you my reasoning, God knows i cant exit these fucking positions anyway if things go to shit lol, might as well shittalk and pump my shit

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

giving my opinions, everything i say is consistent with my position. and if you take the person who has $60k on a market as your primary source, its on you lol. And @car, how did i admit to that? can u read? you are the one selling your position, ive been consistently buying and consistently saying why i think theres over 50% chance invasion happens. Dishonest scumbag lol

0

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

Because im not a dishonest degenerate like most cunts on this godforsaken site. Im an honest degenerate who will tell you my reasoning, God knows i cant exit these fucking positions anyway if things go to shit lol, might as well shittalk and pump my shit

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

similar to Ukraine markets, Im here to either triumph or go down with the ship, and ill keep shit talking until resolution day ^

3

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

Because im not a dishonest degenerate like most cunts on this godforsaken site. Im an honest degenerate who will tell you my reasoning, God knows i cant exit these fucking positions anyway if things go to shit lol, might as well shittalk and pump my shit

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

Because im not a dishonest degenerate like most cunts on this godforsaken site. Im an honest degenerate who will tell you my reasoning, God knows i cant exit these fucking positions anyway if things go to shit lol, might as well shittalk and pump my shit

4

n/a

2 weeks ago

Why does the top yes holder keep trying to convince us of his position while market buying every dip? It would surely be easier to stay quiet and build up a position with limit orders idk!

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

Try harder, you are not even in the top 2 schizoposters on this market, sad!

1

XiJinPing

2 weeks ago

I'd like to offer sincere gratitude to @HaterzLoserz for his generous donation to NO holders

Will Russia capture Toretsk before October?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

Could go either way, Russia made a push but its one of those long narrow breakthroughs where Ukraine potentially still has controlling of the flanking buildings making it very hard for russia to keep pushing thru the central line deeper to the church. Ukraine has surely been expecting this and has reinforced those positions heavily. This may turn into a meat grinder for the next week and save the No side. But if Russia throws enough at this, then it likely makes sense for ukraine to cut losses and fall back to the next line in the city.

6

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

interesting thing to post right after saying this lol "Tanks have been at the border for months. Obv, they will re-inforce while bombing beirut to stop any hez infiltration."

3

Justifax

2 weeks ago

If you're going to pump, talk about what is different and new. Otherwise you look clueless and a fade signal

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

agreed, but the current govt is the most war hawkish in recent memory. Iranian people dont want war either, its their govt and the priest class

1

scottilicious

2 weeks ago

A lot of Israelis once you get past the bluster are weary of a confrontation w/Iran and the recent show of force despite the missiles being shot down was pretty scary from what I hear..

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

Timing for Israel is far better than most people give credit for. They stopped asking US permission for things quite a while ago, and now prefer to act first and ask forgiveness later. or rather, assume the US wont do shit pre election at least. Key figures in govt like Ben Gvir will be bulling for taking more arab land, thats his whole thing, i hate the fucking cunt, but it is what it is. The stated goals of returning residents to North Israel require a buffer zone, shooting rockets into lebanon indefinitely to deter hezb isnt a real option either, gotta make a DMZ basically if they want that. And if harris wins the election, that might become a whole lot more complicated, better to take it now and mch harder for harris to make you leave then. And Hezb is at an all time low in strenght and coordination right now, this is the time to land a decisive blow that will cripple them for years. With Hamas + Hezb crippled, Irans only option will be direct conflict, which they dont want to get into.

5

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

Cosmically, you are correct. Morals of betting on a war happening are debatable. If you asked me a few years ago if id be betting on Israel invading their neighbours, id have said no ^ But we both down $50k if we lose on this, why the comment on me being wiped out if I lose ^ our accounts aint that far apart in size :P

1

scottilicious

2 weeks ago

What's interesting to me is that there do seem to be some skilled people on both sides of this market from a glance at the profiles. Ultimately I think the Israelis value their ground troops more than to put them in an obvious quagmire and that any ground incursion will be quick, precise, and limited in scope hence a NO result in this market. Also, noone cares about this here but cosmically I'd rather be on the NO side even if I lose 50k I can afford it, playing with house money. Also the apolyptical certainty, vehemence of the YES peeps makes me want to hold onto my NO to fruition because I've noticed those types of attitudes on here are usually wrong.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

and you'll probably see me throw my whole account on a few markets around election time ^

0

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

love that you are committed enough to this to even shittalk Car when hes on the same side of the market as you lol

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

@Scottilicious yeah im mostly here for fun, I can take this loss. less than 1% of my net worth on here, and im much better at this than sports betting lol. Was losing about $200k a year sports betting last couple years, now im positive here, been following geopolitics long time. This suits me better ^ but 8 figure net worth so not overly worried, this is my play money chips i come for thrills ^ winning/losing less than $5k on any given bet just doesnt get me any kicks, several crypto cycles ago my brain got broken ^^ Best of luck though, it can go either way. I just feel fairprice here is closer to 50%

1

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

love that you are committed enough to this to even shittalk Car when hes on the same side of the market as you lol

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

love that you are committed enough to this to even shittalk Car when hes on the same side of the market as you lol

1

Justifax

2 weeks ago

Just fyi, the scamming copytrader car was on the discord trying to convince everyone that the ABC whistleblower was going 100x.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

https://x.com/SprinterFamily/status/1837805696852582892

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

Every single Israeli ive spoken to thinks the odds should be over 50% for yes ^

0

Porcoddio

2 weeks ago

As an Israeli, the atmosphere here is definitely that a war declaration is coming in the next few days. However, that doesn't mean that I would buy Yes shares. My point is just that Yes should have been around 50% already, or even slightly higher.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

How exactly would IDF achieve the stated goal of securing North Israel for residents to return without creating a buffer zone in South Lebanon?

3

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

love how you came in asking for help in English words, then confidently tell us exactly what control means lmao

0

FamilyCapital

2 weeks ago

btw occupation of meaningful position or a city for few hours does not mean control from military perspective. To take portion of empty land for a few days in order to do some damage does not mean control from military perspective. So the question is, how we know if their military offensive is as intention to control, not just to do some dmg or smth else.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

People try so hard to cope about rules here lol. Its very easy, even a small incursion for a few hours will require establishing control along the border. this idea that Israel needs to come out and explicitly state "We intend to hold this part of lebanon indefinitely" is just ridiculous. Taking control of a few hundred meter area past a border checkpoint as a forward operating base for a couple hours would suffice ^ Intent to control any part of lebanon, no time horizon stated. This is not some hard thing to prove, its pretty easy. Any sort of ground troops, armored vehicles etc establishing a perimeter of any kind within lebanese borders.

3

Will Ukraine hold Kursk through October 31?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

fucking banger comment

1

CompulsiveGambler

2 weeks ago

Russia simps will tell you that you are stupid for falling victim to western propaganda immediately before they lose four ukraine markets back to back

Will Ukraine hold Kursk through October 31?

HaterzLoserz

2 weeks ago

Can we get a market on Russian Rubles having a 1:1 exchange rate with Runescape gold by end of 2025 please?

4

Will Ukraine hold Kursk through October 31?

HaterzLoserz

3 weeks ago

Glory to the Heroes, look forward to continued cooperation in raiding vatnik wallets

1

n/a

3 weeks ago

You were told to flee back to Russia when I bought at 35c, told again at 60c, told one more time at 75c and decided to counterattack at 90c instead. You didn't listen, so crawl back to 100c poverty. Slava Ukraini

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

3 weeks ago

@amok potentially, one could also argue that them entering even for a few hours with ground forces to kill terrorists along the border would require them establishing control over part of lebanon. It doesnt state what timeframe the control is to be for. Not sure which will be interpreted but just pointing it out

3

n/a

3 weeks ago

"a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Lebanon"

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

HaterzLoserz

3 weeks ago

profound

0

Greta-Tunafish

3 weeks ago

everything happens all the time

Will Ukraine hold Kursk through October 31?

HaterzLoserz

3 weeks ago

google is a western company dumb fuck lol, we have invaded your language with our corporate speak. Our corporate brand names are now verbs in your culture. Russian culture is dying and western liberalism shall prevail! Glory to the heroes :)

0

dodas

3 weeks ago

It looks like you're confusing 'accepting negotiated terms' with 'simply submitting.'. Again. And what do you mean by 'free peoples of the world'? Does bending the knee or even dying for U.S. interests make you 'free'? Few weeks into the war, Ukraine was ready to sign a peace treaty. But the 'free' West didn't approve and messed it up, leading to the loss of hundreds of thousands of lives. And now you're cheering that it was the right choice? Do you lack compassion for Ukrainians too?

Will Ukraine hold Kursk through October 31?

HaterzLoserz

3 weeks ago

cry about russophobia while your nation invades other countries and kills innocent people, bombs childrens hospitals and more. Then act like its irrational for people to hate your country. Broken cuckolded people who want the rest of the world to be broken too. Your country broke 30 years ago, and it will do so again soon. Cuck

0

dodas

3 weeks ago

It looks like you're confusing 'accepting negotiated terms' with 'simply submitting.'. Again. And what do you mean by 'free peoples of the world'? Does bending the knee or even dying for U.S. interests make you 'free'? Few weeks into the war, Ukraine was ready to sign a peace treaty. But the 'free' West didn't approve and messed it up, leading to the loss of hundreds of thousands of lives. And now you're cheering that it was the right choice? Do you lack compassion for Ukrainians too?

Will Ukraine hold Kursk through October 31?

HaterzLoserz

3 weeks ago

I enjoy draining the wallets of deluded cuck vatniks who believe their propaganda news lmao, our wallets will show who has a better grasp on reality, this is a prediction market, and you about to get your account wiped out lol, that money would be handy when the rationing starts

0

dodas

3 weeks ago

It looks like you're confusing 'accepting negotiated terms' with 'simply submitting.'. Again. And what do you mean by 'free peoples of the world'? Does bending the knee or even dying for U.S. interests make you 'free'? Few weeks into the war, Ukraine was ready to sign a peace treaty. But the 'free' West didn't approve and messed it up, leading to the loss of hundreds of thousands of lives. And now you're cheering that it was the right choice? Do you lack compassion for Ukrainians too?

Will Ukraine hold Kursk through October 31?

HaterzLoserz

3 weeks ago

continue to cuck yourself to your slave masters, imagine having your integrity and mind stolen from you by some fascist dictators and then defending them lmao. Everyone hates russia because you are a toxic and broken people. Cuckolded to the extreme and expect everyone else to bend over and become poor slaves like them, just so you can justify your own position as a poor cuckold in a slave state. Your overlords taxed your people in potatos for centuries because thats all they had, and then they made vodka from it and sold it back to the poor slaves to keep them unable to revolt. Thats why 30% of Russian adult males are alcoholics. Broken country. Broken people. Will soon collapse. And you will continue to cuck yourself to the slavemasters who have been fucking your family for generations. Keep bending over and taking that big fascist cock in your asshole cuck

0

dodas

3 weeks ago

It looks like you're confusing 'accepting negotiated terms' with 'simply submitting.'. Again. And what do you mean by 'free peoples of the world'? Does bending the knee or even dying for U.S. interests make you 'free'? Few weeks into the war, Ukraine was ready to sign a peace treaty. But the 'free' West didn't approve and messed it up, leading to the loss of hundreds of thousands of lives. And now you're cheering that it was the right choice? Do you lack compassion for Ukrainians too?

Will Ukraine hold Kursk through October 31?

HaterzLoserz

3 weeks ago

And now you must resort back to "not every ukrainian", well yes, but the vast majroity, as I said lmao. This is how democracy works. Those who like russia are free to move to russia dumbass cuck. The idea that a small portion of Ukrainians like Russia means Russia has some kind of claim to their land is just going to lead to the downfall of Russia lmao, the free world wont have it. And yes, we are the free world you stupid fucking cuck, you have a dictator whose only allies are dictators. Ukraine fights for freedom from oppression, you are one of the oppressed and you glorify your subjugators, thats why you are a cuckold. Get down and bow to your masters, fucking slave mind cunt

1

dodas

3 weeks ago

It looks like you're confusing 'accepting negotiated terms' with 'simply submitting.'. Again. And what do you mean by 'free peoples of the world'? Does bending the knee or even dying for U.S. interests make you 'free'? Few weeks into the war, Ukraine was ready to sign a peace treaty. But the 'free' West didn't approve and messed it up, leading to the loss of hundreds of thousands of lives. And now you're cheering that it was the right choice? Do you lack compassion for Ukrainians too?

Will Ukraine hold Kursk through October 31?

HaterzLoserz

3 weeks ago

you are free to do as you wish and lose money.

1

FamilyCapital

3 weeks ago

About Kursk, there a now big cities or industrial zones, where you can hold well. Nevertheless, I see the problem for Russians taking back every inch on the map of Kursk!

Will Ukraine hold Kursk through October 31?

HaterzLoserz

3 weeks ago

Do you regularly just make up rules like "Ukraine cant take aid from its allies but Russia can"? lmao, amazingly the people of Ukraine have free will, and the vast vast majority want to join Europe and be free people, speak english and be done with the russian world of poverty and brainwashing fascist scumbags. Its not hard to understand. Not everything is the USA lmao, imagine a country not wanting to be a subject of Russia, oh lord. Hint: every former soviet state wants to be free of Russian influence, we will all work together to make sure your state collapses and we send you back to the early 90s where you are cannabilizing each others children. Enjoy it for me when the time comes :)

0

dodas

3 weeks ago

It looks like you're confusing 'accepting negotiated terms' with 'simply submitting.'. Again. And what do you mean by 'free peoples of the world'? Does bending the knee or even dying for U.S. interests make you 'free'? Few weeks into the war, Ukraine was ready to sign a peace treaty. But the 'free' West didn't approve and messed it up, leading to the loss of hundreds of thousands of lives. And now you're cheering that it was the right choice? Do you lack compassion for Ukrainians too?

Will Ukraine hold Kursk through October 31?

HaterzLoserz

3 weeks ago

Yes, if you look at the geography too, there are natural barriers. The little strip of marshland west of tetkino for example, it would be a suicide mission to try recapture that land, its gone. You'd waste thousands of men to recapture a few fields that would be very hard to hold and supply compare to ukraine due to maze of rivers. Zero chance Russia recaptures this by force in the timeframe

2

FamilyCapital

3 weeks ago

About Kursk, there a now big cities or industrial zones, where you can hold well. Nevertheless, I see the problem for Russians taking back every inch on the map of Kursk!

Will Ukraine hold Kursk through October 31?

HaterzLoserz

3 weeks ago

Pokrovsk market they only need to take the Church in the town for the market to resolve I believe. Kursk they need to regain every inch on the map. Massive difference in terms of resolution requirements. They are only a few city blocks away from the Church at times on the map.

2

FamilyCapital

3 weeks ago

can someone explain to me, how is that rusians have more chances to take Pokrovsk(~25%), than return Kursks occupied territory(~14%)

Will Ukraine hold Kursk through October 31?

HaterzLoserz

3 weeks ago

"The Lend-Lease Act was signed into law on March 11, 1941, and ended on September 20, 1945. A total of $50.1 billion (equivalent to $672 billion in 2023 when accounting for inflation) worth of supplies was shipped" The US has so far supplied Ukraine with about $50 billion worth of aid. Nice try though lmao, cuck

0

dodas

3 weeks ago

It looks like you're confusing 'accepting negotiated terms' with 'simply submitting.'. Again. And what do you mean by 'free peoples of the world'? Does bending the knee or even dying for U.S. interests make you 'free'? Few weeks into the war, Ukraine was ready to sign a peace treaty. But the '