papabear

How many swing states will Trump win?

papabear

7 months ago

someone want to send me money.. i bet on 5.. pretty girls don't lose bets :'(

2

What will Trump say during Kinston, NC rally?

papabear

7 months ago

why?

1

Akumatame

7 months ago

Tomorrow Trump will talk about Crypto

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

papabear

7 months ago

even the market AI for this page says there was no attack LOL

5

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

papabear

7 months ago

even the AI generated market summary says no lolol

2

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

papabear

7 months ago

even the market AI on this page says that there have been no strikes on Iraq? lol

2

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

papabear

7 months ago

even the AI market summary says there were no confirmed strikes on Iraq??? lol

1

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

papabear

7 months ago

I'm a bit confused as to the amount of people holding yes because even the AI bot on this page says that there have been no direct and confirmed attacks on Iraq

0

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

papabear

8 months ago

how do we report?

0

zynyz

8 months ago

Here is the vote being rigged, send this to polymarket support: https://i.imgur.com/UckwBzM.png

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

papabear

8 months ago

Are you trying to tell me WSJ click bait headlines is more real then the reality of all of us on the ground?

1

Justifax

8 months ago

I've said this 100s of times throughout this market. I've said in other markets. Poly and UMA resolve on headlines. They have to. Everyone knows headlines and if they get caught up in below the fold details it would be impossible to resolve properly as there would be too much conflicting information. Headlines are best effort summaries of truth, which works for binary option contracts that go YES or NO.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

papabear

8 months ago

I live here and there were not boots on the ground... nor was there reporting of boots on the ground until mid-day Oct 1st

0

Justifax

8 months ago

I've said this 100s of times throughout this market. I've said in other markets. Poly and UMA resolve on headlines. They have to. Everyone knows headlines and if they get caught up in below the fold details it would be impossible to resolve properly as there would be too much conflicting information. Headlines are best effort summaries of truth, which works for binary option contracts that go YES or NO.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

papabear

8 months ago

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter Lebanese territory for combat operations between September 18 and September 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET." This bet is about whether or not IDF ENTERED Lebanon.. not launched raids along the border.

1

Justifax

8 months ago

I am honest and sincere as they come and I'll tell you this. Both poly and uma very very consistently resolve on headlines from top outlets. Headlines are a best effort summary of truth. If wsj headlines says special forces are launching raids in lebanon, then that is enough to go YES. They are *very* consistent about this. It's not a scam.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

papabear

8 months ago

I am 2 hours away from this conflict I can assure you boots were not on the ground until mid-day Oct 1st... So I think it's confusing how so many news outlets (BBC, Middle East Eye, etc) reported "no" essentially but somehow I guess the majority wins despite reality lol..

0

yourrapist1776

8 months ago

Wow no retards lost their lottos and they crying market manipulation? Who could have forseen this?

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

papabear

8 months ago

Haha like I said I'm new here and I'm trying to learn how it works. But someone was explaining that members of the "UMA" (whatever this is) or I think some people call them "whales" have disproportionate voting power to arbitrate disputes

1

ANudeEgg

8 months ago

That’s crazy conspiracy talk.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

papabear

8 months ago

Yes it appears this way because I guess the people with the most popular opinion seem to be able to "buy" influence?

0

ANudeEgg

8 months ago

No, what I’m telling you is that your opinion of what the evidence points to is not the most popular opinion.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

papabear

8 months ago

???? for christs sake

0

informed

8 months ago

UMA just voted that D-Day occurred 1 day before it actually occurred?

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

papabear

8 months ago

People can disagree with my opinion but can they disagree with all of the news outlets is the question

0

ANudeEgg

8 months ago

People disagree with your opinion that the overwhelming evidence points to that. If No had won, Yes holders would be saying the same thing.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

papabear

8 months ago

It's not even a matter of screwed... This is my first time betting on Polymarket and what you are telling me it the evidence doesn't matter because for me (and many others only 2-3 hours away from the conflict) this seemed like a no-brainer

0

ANudeEgg

8 months ago

There was a dispute because people disagreed on the correct answer. One side is always going to think that they were screwed, no matter which way the vote goes

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

papabear

8 months ago

There is just such blatant and overwhelming evidence that IDF did not have boots on the ground until mid-day October 1st... So yes I'm asking how I can agree to the terms of the bet and then those terms are just thrown out the window lol

0

ANudeEgg

8 months ago

You’re asking how an arbitration process which you implicitly agreed to by using the website is legal?

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

papabear

8 months ago

so this is just a platform for insider trading then? I'm confused as to how Polymarket has any legitimacy if people can bet and just pay to win those bets

1

Phat.

8 months ago

Public opinion.. not really, UMA token holders opinion matter more and swayed by positions they holding

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

papabear

8 months ago

I mean there are reports from BBC, Middle East Eye, IDF, and Hezbollah that claim the invasion started mid-day Oct 1... So something like that is clearly happening here because resolving this market at "yes" doesn't match reality???

3

ANudeEgg

8 months ago

You can’t do it technically unless they expose themselves because it’s all on chain. But many people have been participating in disputes for a long time and there’s no evidence that anything like that is happening, at least for the UMA whales who really matter.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

papabear

8 months ago

I'm trying to understand how this is legal.. I guess its because there are no laws yet for cryptocurrency platforms like this?

0

PDIDDY

8 months ago

yep

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

papabear

8 months ago

so this isn't betting on politics then?

1

Phat.

8 months ago

you gotta play the ecosystem and know who holds voting powers and what positions they are in, Truth play little role how these disputed market gets resolved

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

papabear

8 months ago

Hi everyone, I'm new here and trying to understand... Polymarket politics betting is not based off of reality... it's based off of what people want (vote) reality to be?

4

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

papabear

8 months ago

we also have proof from Middle East Eye and BBC

0

Myh

8 months ago

guys lets constructive talk do we have any proofs from israel or Hezbollah that israel entered lebanon? -NO we have just answer from Hezbollah that they didnt

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

papabear

8 months ago

Hezbollah made a statement ! Hezbollah officials officially deny any Israeli soldier crossing to Lebanon: https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2024-10-01/hezbollah-media-chief-says-no-israeli-troops-have-entered-lebanon https://english.alarabiya.net/amp/News/middle-east/2024/10/01/hezbollah-media-chief-says-no-israeli-troops-have-entered-lebanon

1

TimeQuestion

8 months ago

If Hezbollah doesn't make a statement they'll use IDF + consensus of credible media reporting

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

papabear

8 months ago

39 minutes ago: Hezbollah denied on Tuesday that Israeli forces entered Lebanon, hours after the Israeli military announced it would began ground incursions in border villages. (source: https://www.middleeasteye.net/live/gaza-israel-war-lebanon-hezbollah-attacks-updates). Based on this the market would have to resolve to "no," as Hezbollah and credible media outlets are reporting that Lebanese forces did not physically enter the territory (albeit BBC is giving reports they may have crossed 1-2 hours ago- still outside the timeframe of this particular market)

2