#131
Rank
318
Comments
115
Likes Received
91
Likes Given
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July?
Master-bettor
6 months ago
buy when there is blood on the streets, even if the blood is your own
1
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July?
Master-bettor
6 months ago
fuck me there! we are all fucked! :C
0
Car
6 months ago
Donald Trump Jr. is going to Greenland! I think my NO position is completely FUCKED
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July?
Master-bettor
6 months ago
I dont think Trump will acquire Greenland before July
2
Election certified on January 6?
Master-bettor
6 months ago
a bowl is most useful when it is empty
4
Emptiness.
6 months ago
NPCs be liek: "has to be Jan 6 cuz constitution! It's in the constitution, TV said so!!!" Check it yourself, January 6 is mentioned NOWHERE! https://constitution.congress.gov/constitution/
Trump sentenced to prison in NY case before inauguration?
Master-bettor
6 months ago
i don't think Trump will be sentenced to prison in NY case before the inauguration.
2
What will Trump say during inauguration speech?
Master-bettor
6 months ago
lol
1
MrKangaroo
6 months ago
keep in mind that with inaugural addresses, the president is encouraged to make jokes and have a lively debate with the audience, this could go for hours and who even knows what questions he will be asked
Who will attend Trump inauguration?
Master-bettor
6 months ago
JIMMY CARTER WILL NOT BE ATTENDING BECAUSE HE IS INTERRUPTED BY DEATH
3
Dohnny
6 months ago
Why isn't Jimmy Carter going? Did he say no already to it..?
Trump takes Panama Canal in first 100 days?
Master-bettor
6 months ago
AMERICA! Fuck Yea!
1
Derivatives_Ape/Prometheus arrested this year?
Master-bettor
6 months ago
I think it would be silly to resolve this as P1, but idk. The pros believe there should be a clear, credible source by mainstream media for UMA to confirm this as P2. Some suggested it might go P3. I’ve already taken my profit, and I believe fair value is around 30c because it could go in any direction. Now, I’m just waiting to see how it will resolve.
1
Master-bettor
6 months ago
I think it’s highly likely he was arrested, just search “Elham Nourzai ZKasino arrested.” The challenge is proving that Elham Nourzai is Derivatives_Ape on Twitter. Since the case is relatively small, it’s being ignored by mainstream media. Here are the details of the court case, confirmed by Rechtspraak: the pro forma hearing is on August 8, 2024, at 10:00. The case number is 81-142097-24, and the case is the Netherlands versus Elham Nourzai.
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2024?
Master-bettor
6 months ago
AAA bond
1
Derivatives_Ape/Prometheus arrested this year?
Master-bettor
6 months ago
I think it’s highly likely he was arrested, just search “Elham Nourzai ZKasino arrested.” The challenge is proving that Elham Nourzai is Derivatives_Ape on Twitter. Since the case is relatively small, it’s being ignored by mainstream media. Here are the details of the court case, confirmed by Rechtspraak: the pro forma hearing is on August 8, 2024, at 10:00. The case number is 81-142097-24, and the case is the Netherlands versus Elham Nourzai.
1
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July?
Master-bettor
6 months ago
who knows anything could happen
1
Juuup
6 months ago
No not possible in this short time
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July?
Master-bettor
6 months ago
Fifty nifty united states from thirteen original colonies...
2
How many men will Lily Phillips have sex with in one day?
Master-bettor
6 months ago
You can watch the livestream and count
1
Benny666
6 months ago
Not touching this one. Learned my lesson with Israel+Hezbollah Ceasefire that one should only touch things that can be proven or disproven empirically.
How many men will Lily Phillips have sex with in one day?
Master-bettor
6 months ago
Its astonishing how some women go through life with only one or two partners, or even none at all, while others are thrust into extremes that defy all sense of balance and fairness. The fact that Lily Philips is sleeping with 1,000 men in a single day isn't just shocking, it’s a glaring example of how society perpetuates these wild disparities. Just like the wealth gap where a handful hoards billions while others struggle to survive, this situation highlights the same kind of extreme inequality, where one person is pushed to such an unimaginable excess while others live at the opposite end of the spectrum. Its a sobering reflection of how far we still have to go in addressing the root causes of such imbalances
11
How many men will Lily Phillips have sex with in one day?
Master-bettor
6 months ago
This attempt is only possible because of advancements in logistics and telecommunication. It brings a tear to my eye to see how far humanity has come.
9
How many men will Lily Phillips have sex with in one day?
Master-bettor
6 months ago
How much sex can Lily Philip have, If Lily Philip tried to have as much sex as she could?
1
Will Trump be Speaker by January 1?
Master-bettor
6 months ago
that one is horrible APR, please fill me at 98.4c
3
FilthyAnimal
6 months ago
You want more? The next Donald Trump speaker money printer is live: https://polymarket.com/event/speaker-of-the-house-for-the-119th-congress?tid=1734753357993
Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?
Master-bettor
7 months ago
YES lets pump it to 101c per share
2
GuyWhoFcks
7 months ago
Let's pump yes and make justice
Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?
Master-bettor
7 months ago
hmm.. maybe!
1
HjotolfFansen
7 months ago
Golan Heights are not Syria in this market
MH370 underwater wreckage found by June 30?
Master-bettor
7 months ago
they did
3
NextBachelor
7 months ago
no, they're haven't even decided to look again
Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?
Master-bettor
7 months ago
because israel is a scam country
1
n/a
7 months ago
Hey someone explain to me why everyone is spamming scam or rigged?
Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?
Master-bettor
7 months ago
no particular reason
0
Master-bettor
7 months ago
polyscam!!!
Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?
Master-bettor
7 months ago
polyscam!!!
1
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July?
Master-bettor
7 months ago
i love polymarket
7
Will Trump be Speaker by January 1?
Master-bettor
7 months ago
how do you think trump will be speaker in 2 weeks?
0
Master-bettor
7 months ago
I don't think Trump will be Speaker by January 1
Will Trump be Speaker by January 1?
Master-bettor
7 months ago
why are you buying yes shares? genuinely curious.
0
Master-bettor
7 months ago
I don't think Trump will be Speaker by January 1
Will Trump be Speaker by January 1?
Master-bettor
7 months ago
I don't think Trump will be Speaker by January 1
0
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2024?
Master-bettor
7 months ago
And I'm not being sarcastic, I think it will be very profound and world changing. I would gladly live in a world where aliens exist and I’m $3K poorer.
0
Master-bettor
7 months ago
ALIENS DON'T EXIST BRUH
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2024?
Master-bettor
7 months ago
I would gladly pay $3.3k for definite proof of the existence of aliens.
0
Master-bettor
7 months ago
ALIENS DON'T EXIST BRUH
How many men will Lily Phillips have sex with in one day?
Master-bettor
7 months ago
I feel strongly that after the 750th to 800th partner, she will experience a profound revelation, recognize her own worth as a human being rather than an object, and then immediately stop streaming.
5
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2024?
Master-bettor
7 months ago
Kathy, do you know that aliens aren't real?
2
Katthy
7 months ago
https://x.com/hustlebitch_/status/1868368977933824389?s=46
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2024?
Master-bettor
7 months ago
ALIENS DON'T EXIST BRUH
1
How many men will Lily Phillips have sex with in one day?
Master-bettor
7 months ago
she could reschedule and/or die
1
iamhungry
7 months ago
I am a whale, I studied this market for hours, I signed up to participate to the event, I can guarantee that it will happen
How many men will Lily Phillips have sex with in one day?
Master-bettor
7 months ago
i should've seen it coming. i should've read the signs. anyways, i guess it's over. can't believe that i'm the fool again. i thought this love would never. how was i to know? you never told me.
0
How many men will Lily Phillips have sex with in one day?
Master-bettor
7 months ago
you forget she has 3 holes and 2 hands
0
titimiquito
7 months ago
1000ppl, is 1minute and 26 seconds for each one. All day for 24h. If someone is not stiffy, or get excited, or anything else 1000+ is almost impossible if tried by time and conditions. Is like betting someone will break the world record in the 100m . You can be the champion, your chance is low.
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?
Master-bettor
7 months ago
thanks for the free $250, hope to see you guys again
0
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?
Master-bettor
7 months ago
polymarket said this should resolve yes. then it did! how shocking!
0
FrankA
7 months ago
How does this market say “if they announce officially” and now this market seems to only be about if there is media consensus or if a ceasefire goes into action. Thats like betting on if trump will announce he’s stepping down and then later arguing that it should resolve yes because he got impeached. Officially announce is a main part of the bet but doesn’t matter at all now?
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?
Master-bettor
7 months ago
wait did we already win?
0
Master-bettor
7 months ago
i am holding my yes share til death no one can convince me otherwise.
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?
Master-bettor
7 months ago
or until i win
1
Master-bettor
7 months ago
i am holding my yes share til death no one can convince me otherwise.
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?
Master-bettor
7 months ago
i am holding my yes share til death no one can convince me otherwise.
1
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?
Master-bettor
7 months ago
🤔 that's a good question! but maybe you should've found out before you bought your shares
0
tiodenz
7 months ago
New dispute
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?
Master-bettor
7 months ago
and i made $250
0
Babybee
7 months ago
Creepy lowlife scammer spent 6k to earn 30 dollars and traded 400k w a profit of 2000 but is trying to stalk me and tell me about "rules"
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?
Master-bettor
7 months ago
dumb NO holder trades 6K and waits 6 days to lose $14!!
0
Babybee
7 months ago
Creepy lowlife scammer spent 6k to earn 30 dollars and traded 400k w a profit of 2000 but is trying to stalk me and tell me about "rules"
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?
Master-bettor
7 months ago
cuz some YES buyers want to get out and sell for 99.9c or dumb NO buyers buying for 0.1c learn the rules!
0
Babybee
7 months ago
Kinda interesting here if it resolves and yes won 100, why I can still sell for 0.1?
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?
Master-bettor
7 months ago
gotta wait until after the vote reveal phase. learn the rulezz
0
Babybee
7 months ago
Why yes still havent redeemed? Sth so shady about this market.
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?
Master-bettor
7 months ago
i'm sorry you are too low iq to understand how all this works
1
5635f
7 months ago
i gonna jump tf I lost it all
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?
Master-bettor
7 months ago
i could go on and on but you won't listen so no point explaining
0
5635f
7 months ago
i gonna jump tf I lost it all
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?
Master-bettor
7 months ago
Learn how bets are made, disputed, and resolved. study past disputes, how they resolve, and why. analyze the large UMA voters and their win rate, etc.
1
5635f
7 months ago
i gonna jump tf I lost it all
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?
Master-bettor
7 months ago
you're fine.. losing $270 is not the end of the world. learn the rules before you play the game and don't bet more than you can afford to lose.
1
5635f
7 months ago
i gonna jump tf I lost it all
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?
Master-bettor
7 months ago
winner winner chicken dinner
1
tsybka
7 months ago
winners dance
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?
Master-bettor
7 months ago
hi
2
daolkha
7 months ago
Hello
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?
Master-bettor
7 months ago
You and SisuPing can be both be imaginary winners. I'll allow it.
1
SisuPing
7 months ago
I’m holding untill this resolves, this is cracked…
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?
Master-bettor
7 months ago
NO holders, don't give up hope! It's technically possible that every single vote after this is P1, and you guys win.
1
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?
Master-bettor
7 months ago
I just received a phone call from an important NO holder. She congratulated us - it's about us - on our victory. I congratulated her on a very, very hard-fought battle. I mean, she fought very hard. Now it's time for America to bind the wounds of division. To all the YES holders and NO holders, I say: it's time we come together as one united people.
3
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?
Master-bettor
7 months ago
if he loses i'll insure his losses. what about you, huh?? do you have your losses insured??
1
BlackSky123
7 months ago
Selfmade420 thinks youtu.be is a SCAM LINK!!! Not a very smart guy!
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?
Master-bettor
7 months ago
🫡 RIP to your remaining $40.
1
Casey2001
7 months ago
DON'T SELL YOUR NO! PRESSURE POLYMARKET AND THEIR CEO TO RESOLVE THIS!
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?
Master-bettor
7 months ago
you are my favorite russian chicken in polymarket
4
tsybka
7 months ago
🍆
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?
Master-bettor
7 months ago
hmm... maybe!
0
SisuPing
7 months ago
This will go p4 10 min before the vote is over
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?
Master-bettor
7 months ago
If it ends in P4 you can dispute as many times to your heart's content.
0
SOMEguy
7 months ago
we can dispute right?
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?
Master-bettor
7 months ago
or maybe they like making 44% APY garaunteed risk free money
1
SOMEguy
7 months ago
why on earth people are buying YES shares at 99.9 what are they going to win?
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?
Master-bettor
7 months ago
i think they misclick
0
SOMEguy
7 months ago
why on earth people are buying YES shares at 99.9 what are they going to win?
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?
Master-bettor
7 months ago
7.8M/9.4M P2 lets gooooo
0
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?
Master-bettor
7 months ago
of course we can have a dispute. you can have a dispute with just about anyone.
0
SOMEguy
7 months ago
we can dispute right?
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?
Master-bettor
7 months ago
it is a mystery. for mysterious purposes.
0
FrankA
7 months ago
What is the rational for YES voters to not reveal their votes? Especially whales that could push it over 9.4m and end it? If there was YES whales left to announce surely they would do so! Is the rational that in the 40 there are 1.6m Yes votes distributed in small holders?
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?
Master-bettor
7 months ago
noooo dont do that!!! thats so scary :(
0
BigDong
7 months ago
whos gonna drop 4k to clear the sell wall
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?
Master-bettor
7 months ago
Yes, i am proud of making $230. Are you proud of losing $250?
0
Master-bettor
7 months ago
*sniff sniff* Do you smell that? That's the scent of the NO holders' incinerated cash.
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?
Master-bettor
7 months ago
Unrealized +$21.83 Realized +$202.10 Total +$223.92 (+0.33%
0
Master-bettor
7 months ago
*sniff sniff* Do you smell that? That's the scent of the NO holders' incinerated cash.
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?
Master-bettor
7 months ago
*sniff sniff* Do you smell that? That's the scent of the NO holders' incinerated cash.
0
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?
Master-bettor
7 months ago
After all this waiting, I will reward myself by eating some chicken from KFC fully funded by NO holders.
1
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?
Master-bettor
7 months ago
Unrealized +$28.44 Realized +$202.10 Total +$230.54 (+0.43%)
0
Jinwoo
7 months ago
i lost 10 dollars on this shit XD
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?
Master-bettor
7 months ago
i made $230 :D
0
Jinwoo
7 months ago
i lost 10 dollars on this shit XD
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?
Master-bettor
7 months ago
Damn, we've been caught. How did you know yes holder are actually middle eastern terrorist trying to launder funds?
2
Babybee
7 months ago
I think it may be the opposite of what ppl are thinking. The no voter actually see the pure truth that israel would continue to fight for freedom and punish terrorists in the middle east. And yes voters are either the snowflake that either dream of peace to come of nowhere, or the terrorists themselves because some of them have been angrily trying to be here to spam, and now complain about my profile photo as sth "impure". Lmao only the hijab creeps would care that much!
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?
Master-bettor
7 months ago
it is quite impressive how you manage to lose every single bet
3
Master-bettor
7 months ago
guys i'm scared, should i sell?
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?
Master-bettor
7 months ago
should i sell?
0
Master-bettor
7 months ago
guys i'm scared, should i sell?
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?
Master-bettor
7 months ago
Polymarket updated the following: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQw4w9WgXcQ
1
Master-bettor
7 months ago
guys i'm scared, should i sell?
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?
Master-bettor
7 months ago
guys i'm scared, should i sell?
1
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?
Master-bettor
7 months ago
I think there will be a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in 2024.
1
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?
Master-bettor
7 months ago
maybe
0
SOMEguy
7 months ago
ok are we loosing NO guys?
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?
Master-bettor
7 months ago
no
0
Master-bettor
7 months ago
i want my money back
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?
Master-bettor
7 months ago
soon to be -$4.5k
0
Master-bettor
7 months ago
i want my money back
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?
Master-bettor
7 months ago
hello mr. -$3.5k profit
0
Master-bettor
7 months ago
i want my money back
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?
Master-bettor
7 months ago
i want my money back
0
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden?
Master-bettor
7 months ago
he could still assault someone and trump could pardon him in march
8
NomadLouie
7 months ago
this should close. he is pardoned for what's current
Will Biden pardon Trump?
Master-bettor
7 months ago
im liquidating. too scary. good luck guys!
1
Will Biden pardon SBF?
Master-bettor
7 months ago
i dont think biden will pardon sbf
1
Will Biden pardon Trump?
Master-bettor
7 months ago
five dollars gone
0
Master-bettor
7 months ago
yeouch
Will Biden pardon Trump?
Master-bettor
7 months ago
yeouch
0
Russian Ruble ₽120 to $1 USD in November?
Master-bettor
7 months ago
domer copycat
0
PoorGUY
7 months ago
hey rich guys, it's weird for me to beg for something, but I don't have money for nutritious food for my family, if you decide to give me any gift, then you will be blessed for this good deed. I pray every night, I will include you in my prayers, if prayer works you will live a happier life full of health and love. Health and love is the only thing my family has a lot of, it seems to work :) Thank you very much for every dollar, for every penny, in my village we earn the equivalent of about $3-4 a day. If you don't have money like me, it doesn't matter, I'll include free :) in my prayers Thank you to all the good souls.
Tesla bot at Trump inauguration?
Master-bettor
7 months ago
I don’t think Tesla bot will be present during Trumps inauguration ceremony.
0
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2024?
Master-bettor
7 months ago
i think we will figure out all there is to know, get bored, then spend the rest of eternity living in perfect simulated utopias, while tasking AI with preventing or delaying the heat death of the universe
0
BigMike11
7 months ago
Odds much lower on Manifold, Insight Prediction, and Metaculus...
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2024?
Master-bettor
7 months ago
i don't think we will figure out all there is to know in the universe, get bored, then restart the universe.
0
BigMike11
7 months ago
Odds much lower on Manifold, Insight Prediction, and Metaculus...
Elon Musk arrested in 2024?
Master-bettor
7 months ago
nothing is impossible all you have to do is believe
3
Fengchenjuenian
8 months ago
It's impossible to happen.
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2024?
Master-bettor
8 months ago
so why did u sell
3
iBoughtApropertyInEgypt
8 months ago
PUMP YES EZ 30x proffit
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?
Master-bettor
8 months ago
dont click its a scam
0
HallieQuinnBrownS
8 months ago
Votonex's Markets [https://votonex.com] shows the same bet at only 47% and has double of volume, odds are much more interesting there if you vote Yes, there's clearly an arb opportunity.
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2024?
Master-bettor
8 months ago
grow up people aliens don't exist
1
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO in 2024?
Master-bettor
8 months ago
i dont think sam will be out as openai ceo
1
Mike Tyson bites Jake Paul's ear?
Master-bettor
8 months ago
I dont think Mike Tyson will bite Jake Paul's ear.
0
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2024?
Master-bettor
8 months ago
habe u seen.. alien??
3
Will Trump get more votes than 2020?
Master-bettor
8 months ago
AAA bond - 75,805,956 votes in 2024
0
Trump wins every swing state?
Master-bettor
8 months ago
fox confirms AZ win
0
fwasraw
8 months ago
Reuters has called Arizona for Trump, soon AP, NBC and Fox will follow,
Trump wins every swing state?
Master-bettor
8 months ago
yes
2
Caiden03
8 months ago
Are arizona poll counters retarded?
Trump wins every swing state?
Master-bettor
8 months ago
i think Trump will win every swing state
0
Unrealized gains tax passed before election day?
Master-bettor
8 months ago
i don't think unrealized gains tax passed before election day
0
Elon Musk arrested in 2024?
Master-bettor
8 months ago
i dont think elon musk will be arrested in 2024
0
Trump prison time in NY case before election?
Master-bettor
8 months ago
SOMEONE PROPOSE (thanks)
1
Will Kamala Harris drop out of presidential race?
Master-bettor
8 months ago
someone propose please
0
Trump prison time in NY case before election?
Master-bettor
8 months ago
i dont think trump will be sentenced to prison in NY case before election
0
Ding Liren plays in 2024 World Chess Championship?
Master-bettor
8 months ago
i think ding liren will play in the 2024 World Chess Championship
1
Trump prison time in NY case before election?
Master-bettor
8 months ago
this is the way
0
dtydy
8 months ago
No prison time
Will Kamala Harris drop out of presidential race?
Master-bettor
8 months ago
anything is possible if you believe hard enough!
0
Trump prison time in NY case before election?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
Same reason why Michelle Obama becoming dem nominee is still priced at 99c
0
Master-bettor
9 months ago
free money 30% APR
Trump prison time in NY case before election?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
sentencing is scheduled for nov 26th, bet expires nov 4th
0
Master-bettor
9 months ago
free money 30% APR
Will Kamala Harris drop out of presidential race?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
guaranteed victory for trump if kamala drops out because of FOX news
0
JohnTitor777
9 months ago
She imploded on Fox news, they wouldn't let her out there like that of they weren't planning a last minute swaparooski. Change of batter incoming.
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
i have seen this shit over and over and over again. welcome to polymarket.
0
bradlycalls
9 months ago
NOTHING EVEN CAME OUT YET REGARDLESS!! LAWSUITTTTT
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
lol do you remember what i said?
0
bradlycalls
9 months ago
NOTHING EVEN CAME OUT YET REGARDLESS!! LAWSUITTTTT
Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
Israel nuking Lebanon and Russia nuking Ukraine are my subjective opinions. North Korea has detonated 6 nuclear devices over the past 19 years, so the probability is approximately 30%.
0
DFK
9 months ago
who would ? Maybe North Korea? Why now? Kim seems busy enough with the situation at home and his new Russian gig. I don't see him picking his old hobby back up.
Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
Expected return is 5.64% over 75 days or around 27% APR. Optimal investment size is 46.88% for full Kelly. If you're using fractional Kellies then divide that by your fraction of choice.
0
DFK
9 months ago
who would ? Maybe North Korea? Why now? Kim seems busy enough with the situation at home and his new Russian gig. I don't see him picking his old hobby back up.
Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
Assuming the probabilities are uniformly distributed over their respective time periods and the events are independent of each other, there is approximately a 6.36% chance that a nuclear device will detonate in the next 75 days.
0
DFK
9 months ago
who would ? Maybe North Korea? Why now? Kim seems busy enough with the situation at home and his new Russian gig. I don't see him picking his old hobby back up.
Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
Assumptions: Israel nukes Lebanon: 10% chance over 10 years. Russia nukes Ukraine: 10% chance over 10 years. North Korea nuclear test: 30% chance over 1 year.
0
DFK
9 months ago
who would ? Maybe North Korea? Why now? Kim seems busy enough with the situation at home and his new Russian gig. I don't see him picking his old hobby back up.
Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
I will be analyzing this from the perspective of a NO holder so my assumptions may be a bit conservative.
0
DFK
9 months ago
who would ? Maybe North Korea? Why now? Kim seems busy enough with the situation at home and his new Russian gig. I don't see him picking his old hobby back up.
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
you will lose all your money, then you will call polymarket a scam, then threaten to sue them.
0
bradlycalls
9 months ago
DO NOT sell ur no shares lmfao this is not over, 43 minutes till final review nov 4th isnt even here yet nor has anything been launched, pure robery on polymarkets side but we will fight for whats right at this price $1000 can be worth almost 200k when we win
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
you will be able to redeem your shares for exactly zero dollars and zero cents
2
n/a
9 months ago
So in 40 min we will see the final rekt or gucci?
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
1.5 Quadrillion percent APR if you buy yes right now.
0
Gcut
9 months ago
40 mins until that sweet 200x return
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
Alright, listen up YES holders —you’ve got one hour left, this is the perfect time to plan your next move. China-Taiwan NO shares at 95.4, locking in 24% APR—get it fast before the liquidity rush drives prices up. Trump, no prison time before the election? 38% APR, free money. One hour left to get in before this spikes. Michelle Obama Dem nominee? 58% APR. With just 18 days to go, this is nearly risk-free, but once liquidity hits, the best part of the action’s gone.
1
Trump prison time in NY case before election?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
he could be sentenced to life in prison and this bet will still resolve as no prison time
0
Master-bettor
9 months ago
free money 30% APR
Trump prison time in NY case before election?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
35%
2
Master-bettor
9 months ago
free money 30% APR
Trump prison time in NY case before election?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
free money 30% APR
3
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2024?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
Comoros maybe
0
/r/SnekSim
9 months ago
if you feel another country is more likely to, feel free to open a new market for it, let's see what the world thinks about which other sources of authority there are left
WR Chess Masters Cup Winner
Master-bettor
9 months ago
pregaganant ramsaybaboon
0
MrNFT
9 months ago
magnut carlton
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2024?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
i dont think the US will confirm aliens exist
1
Will Michelle Obama become Dem Nominee?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
i dont think michelle obama will be dem nominee
0
Fauci jail in 2024?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
the crime of being a fauci
0
Astoria
11 months ago
?? for what crime??
Will there be another debate?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
stop scamming
0
EmilieEmilyToddHelm
9 months ago
The leading aIternative of polymarket has the exact same bet with twice much more liquidity and different odds, I'm not sure which market is more accurate but аrbitrаgе is certainly doable https://x.com/news_defiant/status/1844068113450762423
What will Kamala say during Univision town hall?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
scam
0
EmilieEmilyToddHelm
9 months ago
The leading aIternative of polymarket has the exact same bet with twice much more liquidity and different odds, I'm not sure which market is more accurate but аrbitrаgе is certainly doable https://x.com/news_defiant/status/1844068113450762423
Will Speed break the 24h backflip world record?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
what did car do this time?
0
n/a
9 months ago
i lost it all dont trust car!
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
Uh why can't i claim my Dorian nos
0
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
It might be dorian though
0
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
if it did the winner would be 99.9% and everything else would be 0.1%
0
TheNo1
9 months ago
Is the documentary out already?!!
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
maybe its satoshi dorian nakamoto
1
gun
9 months ago
unpopular opinion but i think rosa parks is satoshi
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
Someone on discord said [N]ick [S]zabo = [S]atoshi [N]akamura
0
Ddd29299
9 months ago
Bitcoin is very similar to Nick Szabo's Bit Gold, but the Bitcoin whitepaper does not reference Nick. This suggests that the person who wrote the whitepaper is Nick himself. Now, I’m off to bed. GN :)
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
yes he also communicated with bitcoins
0
doriannakamoto
9 months ago
him living blocks away from Hal Finney alone is a 1/100000 chance. Im convinced
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
Satoshi 'Dorian' Nakamoto might be outsmarting us by hiding in plain sight and not using a pseudonym
1
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
free money
0
Ddd29299
9 months ago
Satoshi and szabo have the same birthday. but only 3%?? WTF
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
are you gizmo?
0
Justifax
9 months ago
If you go on polycord, I have pasted a link to the dune query which you can use to show in realtime who's revealed votes. Hat tip @lifewillbeokay
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
yes no maybe so
0
Pidor🐓
9 months ago
still thinking it might not have been elon but who knows
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
it was at 99c
0
Car
9 months ago
Other is such good value
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
elon musk no is good value
1
Car
9 months ago
Other is such good value
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
i dont think its dorian nakamoro or elon musk
1
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
i have this tingly feeling from my heart it ain't him.
0
GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix
9 months ago
Seems like Adam is the focal point of the documentary, I think he repeatedly denies being Satoshi as a humility thing, but it looks like HBO is going to strongly insinuate he grandfathered the concept.
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
it ain't dorian!
0
GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix
9 months ago
Seems like Adam is the focal point of the documentary, I think he repeatedly denies being Satoshi as a humility thing, but it looks like HBO is going to strongly insinuate he grandfathered the concept.
Will Kamala Harris drop out of presidential race?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
or die
0
Master-bettor
9 months ago
i don't think kamala harris will drop out
Will Kamala Harris drop out of presidential race?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
i don't think kamala harris will drop out
1
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
u guys dont like whales?? :D
0
fenkovich
9 months ago
bomb Polymarket support! post tweets! Ping influensers. We need to bring platform's attention. otherwise whales will win just because of huge bags of tokens for voting
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
b..b..but.. whales are frens :(
0
fenkovich
9 months ago
bomb Polymarket support! post tweets! Ping influensers. We need to bring platform's attention. otherwise whales will win just because of huge bags of tokens for voting
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
for polymarkets credibility, this can not be no
0
goceboce
9 months ago
for polymarkets credibility, this can not be yes
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
I know this is coming from a YES holder but sell your shares!! This market is over. You can still currently liquidate for 0.1c NO. So even if you bought at 1-2c you can a least recover 5-10% of your initial investment. I gain nothing from this I can claim 100c and you can claim 0c NO at 8pm ET.
2
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
for
0
zynyz
9 months ago
lol master-bettor has nothing to do then to sit here all day to make sure he gets $10
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
payout is 8PM ET lol. I'm just here reading NO holder's comment or entertainment.
0
zynyz
9 months ago
lol master-bettor has nothing to do then to sit here all day to make sure he gets $10
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
I corrected your first sentence: Hey, how are you? I'm in touch because I'm new to the ecosystem and would like to learn about coping mechanisms.
0
ANONYMOUS.
9 months ago
Hey, how are you? I'm in touch because I'm new to the ecosystem and would like to learn about a couple mechanisms. I recently partook in the Israel Enters Lebanon market, and I think that a lot of people on both sides want to see another vote, but don't feel confident that the previous votes have been fair. I'm wondering if different types of votes can be called (i.e. different contract parameters) based on the nature of a market. Seeing as this market is quite controversial, and some may argue unknown/subjective, would it not be better to have a 1 vote/person type vote? Does this currently exist for UMA? My understanding is a very small number of wallets cast the vast majority of votes due to high balances of UMA. A number of people also noted the spike in UMA net buy flow, and increase in borrow rates for UMA. I think that the docs don't really address these questions, and would love some clarity from the team. If there is a way to cast another vote and design it in a way where everyone has an equal say there would be a very different outcome (likely P4). The market thereafter would likely price itself according to the news, rather than a couple people's opinions. Therefore more people would be made whole on their bets, and the market would reflect a more truthful reality. Anyways, sorry for the rant, the main question is - is there any way for me to propose another vote like this? If so I am comitted to doing so.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
I am willing to designate my apartment where there will be a team of people who decides the truth so people can win or lose with dignity. if enough people contact me i am willing to do this and PM should definitely use this instead of UMA.
0
Sneikc
9 months ago
I don't understand why it should be like that. Why isn't there one place where people can refer to the truth and win and lose with dignity
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
oh noes.. is tht really true??
1
theodark
9 months ago
Outcome proposed: no 100%
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
:D
2
theodark
9 months ago
:(
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
8PM ET to claim, the vote result is yes
1
YoYoYolo
9 months ago
Guys when final results?
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
100% agree you should buy more NO shares
3
Myh
9 months ago
I think polymarket team should set this two markets manualy to NO Cuz UMA whales are corrupted by their own bets and voting not fair they just wanna win fact A)We have 0 videos with israel army where they are fighting with lebanon army on lebanon territory fact B) We have answer from Hezbollah that they didnt cross the border fact C) Israel still didnt confirm that their troops entered lebanon in sep30 we saw only rockets we didnt saw the shooting battles or battles of tanks or combat vehicles WTF 1 We have 2 almost similar markets 1) where This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter Lebanese territory for combat operations between September 18 and September 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 2) where This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Lebanon between September 17, 2024 and September 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Second market resolved to NO but this contradict with first market resolve YES if israel made any combat operation on lebanon territory they control some square meters they cant do any combat operation without control So fair resolve for 2 markets should be "NO" because no confirms from israel side and Hezbollah said NO
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
I'm trying to understand why you people aren't selling. There's a 100.00% consensus (9.9 million shares voted YES), and now we're waiting for Polymarket to resolve this as yes so we can claim our funds. If I were you, I would sell at 0.1¢ and at least get $17 back.
0
m1kko
9 months ago
There's a big difference with "military personnel physically entering a country for combat operations" and "a military offensive intended to establish control"
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
why dont you sell and get $60 back?? serious question.
0
n/a
9 months ago
Between impressed and disgusted all i know is this is not a game i wish to play. Live long and prosper, all.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
Thank you to all NO holders for your generous donations. Please be assured the money will be used for my personal needs and put to good use.
3
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
buy more NO
1
BiggieChungus
9 months ago
Only 7% of the vote has come out LMAO, no is insanely underpriced
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
the thing about picking pennies in front of a steamroller is that sometimes there are a lot of pennies and the steamroller is out of gas
0
3potatoes
9 months ago
Steamroller cominggggg
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
Don't give up NO holders!!! Buy more NO never give up!
4
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
ly
0
n/a
9 months ago
exact
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
buy more no?
0
Soltan60
9 months ago
Yes Holder you cooked us
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
The winner takes it all (takes it all) The loser has to fall (has to fall) It's simple and it's plain (it's so plain) Why should I complain? (Why complain?)
0
Master-bettor
9 months ago
Just reposting this by another brilliant YES holder: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=92cwKCU8Z5c&ab_channel=AbbaVEVO
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
Just reposting this by another brilliant YES holder: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=92cwKCU8Z5c&ab_channel=AbbaVEVO
0
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
just close your eyes and everything will be fine
0
zynyz
9 months ago
Yes whales are revealing screenshots of their votes early during the mandatory hidden period breaking the rules of both Polymarket and UMA, message Polymarket support for them to step in
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
majority voted P2.. but nvm that keep buying more NO!!
0
mokachino
9 months ago
any updates about UMA?
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
thanks for your donation :)
0
bbman1214
9 months ago
I am willing to risk $6 for $500
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
Keep buying more NO shares!! its literally free money!!!!
0
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
so you're gna sue them for $35? lol
6
n/a
9 months ago
I am literally ready to go to court against Polymarket if this is counted as YES.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
no holders capitulating: notinventedhere sold 9,907 No at 2.0¢ ($200) 4m ago ishad0vv sold 20,000 No at 2.1¢ ($410) 21m ago 123X sold 800 No at 2.7¢ ($22) 26m ago
0
iwantam4
9 months ago
Am i getting a m4 guys?
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
keep buying NO losers
0
HawkTuah
9 months ago
Am I taking the mrs to McDonald or Michelin star this weekend gents?
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
lmao, this is hilarious. i might delete this but you are so clueless my boy. There are 2 large UMA holders that control the vote. They won't sell. And even if you manage to buy every single $UMA, you still can't win LOL
0
mokachino
9 months ago
Everyone needs to buy some $UMA on ETH, stake it on UMA's site, and commit your vote before 00:00 UTC today (the 2nd of October). Obviously vote P1 (No), if you're unsure still (as many are) vote Unsure. The important thing is voting. If you're on NO and have an average price of $0.03 or less, taking a little out to vote is not such a bad idea. Maybe the price is slightly affected, but us NO holders are in until resolution, price movements don't shake these diamond m-f*ckin' hands boys.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
NO holders, please buy more NO, literally free money!!!!
0
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
lol vote reveal in 9 hours. good luck to all NO holders :D
0
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
he said right afterwards they were small targeted raids.
0
McLarry
9 months ago
Although he's holding “YES” here, I don't want to withhold JustScam's argument for your side, dear No Holders: "Have I lost my mind? What is the evidence they invaded? IDF says no invasion, AP says they didn't see any troops cross the border, and Hezbollah says they didn't invade.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
wrong market, he was talking about the invasion market. And domer was referencing to no large scale troops crossing the border.
0
McLarry
9 months ago
Although he's holding “YES” here, I don't want to withhold JustScam's argument for your side, dear No Holders: "Have I lost my mind? What is the evidence they invaded? IDF says no invasion, AP says they didn't see any troops cross the border, and Hezbollah says they didn't invade.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
we've got domer, whales, scam artists, polymarket veterans, people with deep connections with UMA on our side. No holders on the other hand, are a bunch of whiny shit posting newbies.
0
averagejoe
9 months ago
AENEWS2 is a well known scam artist. Thread: https://x.com/Domahhhh/status/1555575884475662336
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
aenews2 bet his whole PNL on Yes and is now negative on it, what a joke. If one of the other big whales sells be for he does he is done for
3
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
[13] Chao-Fong, Léonie; Belam, Martin; Gecsoyler, Sammy; Yerushalmy, Jonathan (30 September 2024). "Middle East crisis live: Israel launches small raids across border amid reports Lebanese army is pulling back". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 30 September 2024.
0
n/a
9 months ago
Wikipedia listing it as 1st of October. ((Eastern time as was the main argument 24 hours ago))
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
different timezones
2
felipe33
9 months ago
All wiki articles says that israel forces entry into lebanon was on 1 oct
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
lmao you guys are delusional he sold to buy 'Who will speak more at VP Debate' shares look at his profile.
0
zynyz
9 months ago
2024AD sold 4,132 Yes at 98.0¢ ($4,051)
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
can you please fill me at 97.7c?
0
ANONYMOUS.
9 months ago
Have people committed yet? Can't see the UMA resolution market yet.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
1% in a week is still pretty decent return lol
0
zynyz
9 months ago
Enjoy holding your $500k Yes positions for another week for the hopes to gain 1% by rigging the vote after the "Too Early" vote tomorrow
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
you are 100% correct keep buying more no
1
RBvKrsr7ZfRK
9 months ago
Debate in Discord is heated. There is no clear consensus that this market would be a YES..
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
click on the source wikipedia is basing the first paragraph on, then look at the date
1
Hugor21
9 months ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Israeli_invasion_of_Lebanon seems like a solid no?
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
Can any no holders fill me at 98.6c? Thanks in advance
0
Walz and Vance debate on Oct 1?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
they will?? oh noes
0
0x0F50a317131F6D8b1D8494411baEF3dA11B24861-1727394092550
9 months ago
they will cancel it
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
whales are frens :3
0
zynyz
9 months ago
https://www.uma.rocks/dashboard Are these the 3 guys that decide the final answer? Im guessing 1 of them is a Yes whale?
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
Video footage starting to emerge: https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/1ftmplr/idf_raids_into_lebanon/
1
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
wrong market
0
crow
9 months ago
What is the evidence they invaded? IDF says no invasion, AP says they didn't see any troops cross the border, and Hezbollah says they didn't invade.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
Maybe you should learn how the game works before playing. That way you'd make money instead of losing it. People who are buying no are incinerating their cash and donating to the OGs who know how the game works.
1
NotJustKen
9 months ago
No point arguing. 50pence & aenews2 bought $800k worth of shares in Israel enter lebanon market, and UMA token price rose by 12% in last 24hrs . So I guess this is rigged. Whales can buy whatever they want and vote as per thier choice by stocking the UMA tokens. truth doesnt really matters
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
https://polymarket.com/event/israeli-forces-enters-lebanon-before-november
0
0x5108b4b675109253717cC0468f643F1A06A1b9C7-1727742221351
9 months ago
Was their any cross border incursion already?
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
The 'Israeli forces enter Lebanon before November?' already resolved to yes. This bet is 100% yes, just need to wait for the dispute timer to hit zero.
0
Master-bettor
9 months ago
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2024/10/1/israel-attacks-lebanon-live-israelis-launch-ground-operation-in-lebanon
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2024/10/1/israel-attacks-lebanon-live-israelis-launch-ground-operation-in-lebanon
0
0x5108b4b675109253717cC0468f643F1A06A1b9C7-1727742221351
9 months ago
Was their any cross border incursion already?
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
'Israeli soldiers have entered Lebanon after the army announced a “limited” ground operation against Hezbollah.'
0
0x5108b4b675109253717cC0468f643F1A06A1b9C7-1727742221351
9 months ago
Was their any cross border incursion already?
VP debate before election?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
probabilities are not binary and you can always size your bets
0
3potatoes
11 months ago
This type of bets so scary because although low odds but if happens big loss
Walz and Vance debate on Oct 1?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
https://polymarket.com/event/vp-debate-before-election
0
Master-bettor
9 months ago
'vp debate before election' is cheaper and safer.
Walz and Vance debate on Oct 1?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
'vp debate before election' is cheaper and safer.
0
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
P2 - Yes
0
VP debate before election?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
they're both confirmed to fly to nyc, so unless something happens to either of them the debate is definitely going to happen. fair value is around 99.8c
0
dtyuaa
9 months ago
yes
What will Trump say during Michigan town hall?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
wow i said the exact same thing on discord
0
bulborb
9 months ago
Lol interesting song choice
Ding Liren plays in 2024 World Chess Championship?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
please fill me
0
草莓软糖是男人还是女人 (man or woman)?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
or maybe she posted that to buy up some cheap man shares
0
abdendriel
9 months ago
I feel like only a girl who’s playing with you would post this: https://x.com/gummybear1771/status/1839192607517515816?s=46
Fed Interest Rates: November 2024
Master-bettor
9 months ago
yes we did :)
0
OneMoneyPlz
9 months ago
You got out before me but we did good, huh?
Diddy sex tape released before November?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
Dear yes holders, please don't sneak in and film a sex tape at his mansion. thanks
0
Will Biden pardon Trump?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
what's your profit?
1
MsKw2222
10 months ago
Kamala wins and Hunter gets a stern jail sentence, I can see Biden pardoning Trump because he knows that the state cases remain and there will not be anything Trump can do to get out of those - unless SCOTUS gets further involved! Pardoning Trump so that he can pardon Hunter gives him cover and takes away part of FAUx Entertainments talking point about partisan prosecutions!
草莓软糖是男人还是女人 (man or woman)?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
what is this
2
Caroline Ellison sentenced to prison?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
to jail you go
0
Caroline Ellison sentenced to prison?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
i have a tingly feeling in my heart that tells me she'll be in jail
0
Zelensky remains President of Ukraine through September?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
this is free money, he's now under the protection of the secret service. And they can't afford another trump incident.
0
Caroline Ellison sentenced to prison?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
the first time i read this i read it as "That's like bargaining with car" lol.
1
jayminho
9 months ago
A lot of people claiming “ohh the prosecutors asked for leniency” lol. Pal. That’s like bargaining a car.. it’s advertised for 10k, you bring down to 8k , seller will get pissed , will not do it, however you can , maybe, deal 9k.. that’s it. Her defense team asking leniency it’s to bring down and try negotiate a 60 months sentence to a 48 months.. that’s it. That’s all. Standard move.
Caroline Ellison sentenced to prison?
Master-bettor
9 months ago
why did u sell all your 'yes' position?
0
Car
10 months ago
To jail you go
Caroline Ellison sentenced to prison?
Master-bettor
10 months ago
🤣
0
Sardinianshepherd
10 months ago
I trust Car
Caroline Ellison sentenced to prison?
Master-bettor
10 months ago
i bought yes for fun, but i think it could go either way. she has the best lawyers money can buy and she fully cooperated with the investigation.
0
jayminho
10 months ago
who are this people buying NO ??????? Ellison family members or the court ?? gosh. its nearly impossible she doesn't get at least 6 months.
Fact Check: Is the suspect a U.S. citizen?
Master-bettor
10 months ago
https://apnews.com/article/trump-assassination-attempt-suspect-ukraine-f76ed09f256f6bd21727a10901d92af7
0
Master-bettor
10 months ago
https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/1014197.html
Fact Check: Is the suspect a U.S. citizen?
Master-bettor
10 months ago
https://x.com/guillaume_ptak/status/1537723618481905665
0
Master-bettor
10 months ago
https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/1014197.html
Fact Check: Is the suspect a U.S. citizen?
Master-bettor
10 months ago
100% US citizen. someone needs to propose.
0
Fact Check: Is the suspect a U.S. citizen?
Master-bettor
10 months ago
https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/1014197.html
0
Will Trump drop out of presidential race?
Master-bettor
10 months ago
its impossible for trump to drop out
0
Fact Check: Is the suspect a U.S. citizen?
Master-bettor
10 months ago
:(
0
iamhungry
10 months ago
Wow, I am the top holder
Fact Check: Is the suspect a U.S. citizen?
Master-bettor
10 months ago
not anymore ;)
0
iamhungry
10 months ago
Wow, I am the top holder
What will Trump say during Nevada rally?
Master-bettor
10 months ago
which one
0
Car
10 months ago
free 10% bond
Megaquake in September?
Master-bettor
10 months ago
i'm not a geological expert, but I think 2010-2024 is too short of a time period and could introduce sampling bias. changes in geological processes take decades or centuries and the rate of 1.3 per year is the average over the past 100 years
0
Frozencomet
10 months ago
its so fucking funny to see people saying there will or wont be an earthquake like they have any idea
What will Trump say during Arizona rally?
Master-bettor
10 months ago
NOPE
0
McCartneyStan
10 months ago
to whoever is reviewing this please say yes to cat. copycat is a compound word and sortaaa refers to the animal cat
Megaquake in September?
Master-bettor
10 months ago
it's far more predictable than the number of tweet markets. on average, 1.3 magnitude 8.0 earthquakes occur each year, so the probability of at least one happening in the next 18 days is 6.3% so the market is quite efficient..
2
Frozencomet
10 months ago
its so fucking funny to see people saying there will or wont be an earthquake like they have any idea
Speed Chess Championship Winner 2024
Master-bettor
10 months ago
i suggest keeping your reasoning the same but inverting all your future bets
3
OmenOfLord
10 months ago
Magnus played amazingly, Alireza definitely underperformed I think he had a lot more time troubles than normal and got tilted in the 5-1 and from there it was over. GGS
Will Hikaru or Hans win 3rd place in SCC 2024?
Master-bettor
10 months ago
huh
0
41-17™askDomerWhatImean
10 months ago
What is 94+12, Nazi Finn? 🤣🤣🤣
Will Hikaru or Hans win 3rd place in SCC 2024?
Master-bettor
10 months ago
goooo hikaru GOOOOO!!! do not dissapoint me!!! GOOOOO
1
Speed Chess Championship Winner 2024
Master-bettor
10 months ago
what are you saying?? nieman is definitely underpriced. magnus is no match against hans with his anal beads.
4
addicts
10 months ago
I think firoujza is underpriced based off elo, he is #2 in world in blitz- and niemann overpriced, should be 0-1% (he is #23 blitz)
Speed Chess Championship Winner 2024
Master-bettor
10 months ago
HAN WILL WIN DONT UNDERESTIMATE ANAL BEADS
1
Speed Chess Championship Winner 2024
Master-bettor
10 months ago
ugh why u pumping up hans i was planning to buy more
0
50pacc
10 months ago
hans massively overpriced. hes probably a 20:1 dog in bullet portion vs any of those 3 alone, probably even worse vs magnus/hikaru given their ability to play infinite openings. alireza is underpriced given his recent showings against hikaru and beating magnus in double elim.
Speed Chess Championship Winner 2024
Master-bettor
11 months ago
Can you share the spreadsheet? How many simulations did you do?
1
Tombos21
11 months ago
I ran some simulations with the player's chesscom bullet and blitz ratings. The model uses ELO (with some random fluctuation) to predict winrates, and simulates the tournament structure a few million times. Here are the results, according to my model: Magnus Carlsen: 61-72%, Hans Moke Niemann: 0-3%, Hikaru Nakamura: 24-27%, Alireza Firouzja: 5-12%
Speed Chess Championship Winner 2024
Master-bettor
11 months ago
what about hans?
0
sharky🦈🦈🦈
11 months ago
honestly should be 60% magnus and 40% naka. naka is under valued and its speed chess
Speed Chess Championship Winner 2024
Master-bettor
11 months ago
hahaha
0
wedontknowyou007
11 months ago
Hans trading at above 1 cent is so funny
Speed Chess Championship Winner 2024
Master-bettor
11 months ago
Could be either magnus or hikaru. Magnus won 3 times hikaru won 5 times. No one else ever won the speed tournament since its inception: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chess.com#Speed_Chess_Championship
0
Yanoya4sure
11 months ago
Nakamura is the better speed chess player
Speed Chess Championship Winner 2024
Master-bettor
11 months ago
i always sell at 99.9c or redeem my large positions look at my history. i am rarely wrong unlike you, Mr. -$7.8k profit
2
DECRAPisDUMBandGAY
11 months ago
Masturbator runs bad model, gets 99.99999999% bond. Now masturbators begs you to buy his "bond" YIKES!
Speed Chess Championship Winner 2024
Master-bettor
11 months ago
i'm holding until maturity lol
0
DECRAPisDUMBandGAY
11 months ago
you keep begging for exit liquidity, and I will squeeze you even harder.
Speed Chess Championship Winner 2024
Master-bettor
11 months ago
HANS SMOKEY KNEEMAN "NO" IS FREE MONEY!!! BEADS DONT VIBRATE THAT FAST!!!
2
Speed Chess Championship Winner 2024
Master-bettor
11 months ago
https://wismuth.com/elo/calculator.html#rating1=2888&best_of=23&rating2=2611
2
DECRAPisDUMBandGAY
11 months ago
can't believe I got a graduate degree in mathematics just to get out-mathed with fake numbers by a masturbator
Speed Chess Championship Winner 2024
Master-bettor
11 months ago
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B7AQgaPddl8
0
DECRAPisDUMBandGAY
11 months ago
can't believe I got a graduate degree in mathematics just to get out-mathed with fake numbers by a masturbator
Speed Chess Championship Winner 2024
Master-bettor
11 months ago
:)
0
DECRAPisDUMBandGAY
11 months ago
can't believe I got a graduate degree in mathematics just to get out-mathed with fake numbers by a masturbator
Speed Chess Championship Winner 2024
Master-bettor
11 months ago
Hans will be playing Magnus next. There is a 0.0000124% chance he will win magnus in best-of-23-games format. After he beats Magnus, he'll have to win against Hikaru or Alireza (both are 2870+ elo). He has a 0.0000618% chance of winning that. So its never happening even if Magnus resigns because he does not want to play hans.
3
DECRAPisDUMBandGAY
11 months ago
I am busy with irl stuff the next several hours, but I threw in a 6 cent order for you. HANS HANS HANS! eod expiry, new york time
What will Trump say during Elon interview?
Master-bettor
11 months ago
Tesla is free money. There's no way Trump will do an interview with Elon Musk and not mention Tesla at least once.
8
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
Master-bettor
11 months ago
https://x.com/DonaldJTrumpJr/status/1821164331020517596
0
Master-bettor
11 months ago
Yes at 30c is extremely underpriced.
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
Master-bettor
11 months ago
https://x.com/EricTrump/status/1820906993802211751
0
Master-bettor
11 months ago
Yes at 30c is extremely underpriced.
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
Master-bettor
11 months ago
Quote from DonaldJTrumpJr "We’re about to shake up the crypto worldwith something HUGE. Decentralized finance is the future—don’t get left behind. #Crypto #DeFi #BeDeFiant"
0
Master-bettor
11 months ago
Yes at 30c is extremely underpriced.
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
Master-bettor
11 months ago
Quote from Eric Trump on twitter "I have truly fallen in love with Crypto / DeFi. Stay tuned for a big announcement… @Trump @realDonaldTrump @DonaldJTrumpJr"
0
Master-bettor
11 months ago
Yes at 30c is extremely underpriced.
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
Master-bettor
11 months ago
Yes at 30c is extremely underpriced.
1
Fed Interest Rates: November 2024
Master-bettor
11 months ago
Fed Interest Rates: November 2024? YES
1
Will Kamala Harris drop out in August?
Master-bettor
11 months ago
i dont think kamala will drop out in August
1
Democratic VP nominee?
Master-bettor
11 months ago
I would like to thank him. I made $2 because of him. I would not have bought the 99.9c YES shares in time if it wasn't disputed
6
Paganheat
11 months ago
Repeating a prior comment - which loser disputed this and wasted their $750?
Will Kamala Harris drop out in August?
Master-bettor
11 months ago
people who think kamala will drop out in august
4
Astoria
11 months ago
who is buying yes bruh
Democratic Nominee 2024
Master-bettor
11 months ago
test
0
Democratic Nominee 2024
Master-bettor
11 months ago
i think kamala will be democratic nominee
0
Jamie Dimon Democratic Presidential Nominee?
Master-bettor
11 months ago
Jamie Dimon
0
Master-bettor
11 months ago
I dont think Jamie Oliver will be president
Jamie Dimon Democratic Presidential Nominee?
Master-bettor
11 months ago
I dont think Jamie Oliver will be president
0
800m Freestyle Winner (W)
Master-bettor
11 months ago
she did win
0
Master-bettor
11 months ago
Katie is probably gna win
800m Freestyle Winner (W)
Master-bettor
11 months ago
Katie is probably gna win
0
Musk x Maduro fight scheduled by Aug 9?
Master-bettor
11 months ago
I want to lose and see this happen
9
·
Liked by Donkov, Guacanarys and 7 others
NVIDIA largest company in July?
Master-bettor
11 months ago
why is this not resolved
3
Democratic Nominee 2024
Master-bettor
11 months ago
I bought yes because I don't think she will win
0
offset
11 months ago
I bought 'NO' for Kamala, because I believe in American racism.
Democratic Nominee 2024
Master-bettor
11 months ago
kamala is free money
0
PressC
11 months ago
This big mike guy needs to be a man and push the odds to 4 cents.
Kamala president by Friday?
Master-bettor
11 months ago
i think he misclicked 110k shares no
0
Ferguson,Turd
11 months ago
If I was a NO holder i would be shaking in fear knowing that Kamala could literally become preisdent at any second right now
Biden confirmed to have Parkison's by July 31?
Master-bettor
11 months ago
1. The annual incidence rate for PD in the relevant age group is approximately 0.6147% (or 0.006147 in probability terms). Source: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2676726/ 2. Probability of not getting PD is 1−0.006147=0.993853 3. The probability of not developing PD over 52 weeks (roughly one year) should equal the annual probability of not developing PD: let p = weekly probability of getting PD (1−p)^52=0.993853 Thus, the weekly probability of developing PD is approximately 0.000121 or 0.0121%. So the market is currently pricing President Biden as being 86,200% more likely to get PD than the average 81 year old. Makes sense.
0
Was Biden campaign call fake?
Master-bettor
11 months ago
SELL YOUR SHARES NOW!!! before you lose more money you're welcome
0
0x3DBeB453BD987C5bD1547220e02f9192F162374e-1721678738672
11 months ago
🤷🏻♂️
Biden dropout letter published without consent?
Master-bettor
11 months ago
https://polymarket.com/event/was-biden-campaign-call-fake/was-biden-campaign-call-fake?tid=1721882310232
0
Master-bettor
0 years ago
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W0etSyKFS0M&ab_channel=ABCNews
Was Biden campaign call fake?
Master-bettor
11 months ago
TLDR: The recent viral video claiming that President Joe Biden's call to a campaign event for Vice President Kamala Harris was generated using AI voice cloning technology is false. An analysis by DW Fact Check using ElevenLabs and Truemedia has confirmed the audio was not generated by artificial intelligence. The video is a deliberate attempt to mislead people.
0
Master-bettor
11 months ago
https://www.dw.com/en/fact-check-viral-video-claims-biden-harris-call-made-by-ai/a-69753771#:~:text=Conclusion%3A%20The%20recent%20viral%20video,not%20generated%20by%20artificial%20intelligence.
Was Biden campaign call fake?
Master-bettor
11 months ago
https://www.dw.com/en/fact-check-viral-video-claims-biden-harris-call-made-by-ai/a-69753771#:~:text=Conclusion%3A%20The%20recent%20viral%20video,not%20generated%20by%20artificial%20intelligence.
0
Master-bettor
11 months ago
i dont think biden's call is fake
Biden dropout letter published without consent?
Master-bettor
11 months ago
I dont think Biden dropout letter published without consent.
0
Was Biden campaign call fake?
Master-bettor
11 months ago
i dont think biden's call is fake
0
Biden confirmed to have Parkison's by July 31?
Master-bettor
11 months ago
i dont think Biden will have Parkison's by July 31
0
Kamala president by Friday?
Master-bettor
11 months ago
i dont think kamala harris will be president by friday
0
Was Biden campaign call fake?
Master-bettor
0 years ago
like him i also misclicked and bought no instead of yes
1
0x6EeE5B8B79C5dbeB3ca683228B2Dd459b739989e-1721465493620
0 years ago
it's fake
Was Biden campaign call fake?
Master-bettor
0 years ago
i am with car, although i have nowhere near his capital. why don't you buy some yes if you think its fake
0
0x6EeE5B8B79C5dbeB3ca683228B2Dd459b739989e-1721465493620
0 years ago
it's fake
Biden seen in public today?
Master-bettor
0 years ago
then this is an easy yes lets lure him out with an ice cream truck
0
moviesera92
0 years ago
Yes
Biden seen in public today?
Master-bettor
0 years ago
what if he walks out to buy ice cream will that count as yes
0
Russian nuke in space in 2024?
Master-bettor
0 years ago
i dont think russia will put a nuke in space
1
Will Biden pardon SBF?
Master-bettor
0 years ago
This also doubles as a free option on his resignation.
1
0xDa834E7A010D16069a6Dc034342d062D78475AC7-1720184761467
0 years ago
Just putting this here preemptively, "If it becomes impossible for Joseph Biden issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No"."
Biden dropout letter published without consent?
Master-bettor
0 years ago
This is literally free money!! Would love to her YES's perspective.
1
Master-bettor
0 years ago
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W0etSyKFS0M&ab_channel=ABCNews
Biden dropout letter published without consent?
Master-bettor
0 years ago
Biden calls into Vice President Harris' campaign event and says ""I know yesterday's news was surprising, and it was hard for you to hear, but it was the right thing to do."
1
Master-bettor
0 years ago
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W0etSyKFS0M&ab_channel=ABCNews
Biden dropout letter published without consent?
Master-bettor
0 years ago
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W0etSyKFS0M&ab_channel=ABCNews
0
Will Biden announce resignation by July 31?
Master-bettor
0 years ago
delusional
0
HsB34sgg
0 years ago
Should Biden resign, making Harris President now, it would be the greatest thing the Democrats could do to solidify the black vote in perpetuity!
Will Biden announce resignation by July 31?
Master-bettor
0 years ago
he dropped out he did not resign
0
ChosenPhoenix
0 years ago
https://x.com/JoeBiden/status/1815080881981190320
Will Biden announce resignation by July 31?
Master-bettor
0 years ago
read the last part of his letter, he aint resigning.
0
db123
0 years ago
He is out!!!! Legit!
Will Biden announce resignation by July 31?
Master-bettor
0 years ago
biden aint resigning
2
Master-bettor
0 years ago
"It has been the greatest honor of my life to serve as your President," Biden said in a written statement posted to social media. "And while it has been my intention to seek reelection, I believe it is in the best interest of my party and the country for me to stand down and to ***focus solely on fulfilling my duties as President for the remainder of my term.***"
Will Biden announce resignation by July 31?
Master-bettor
0 years ago
"It has been the greatest honor of my life to serve as your President," Biden said in a written statement posted to social media. "And while it has been my intention to seek reelection, I believe it is in the best interest of my party and the country for me to stand down and to ***focus solely on fulfilling my duties as President for the remainder of my term.***"
1
Will Biden announce resignation by July 31?
Master-bettor
0 years ago
resident brandon is still unwilling to drop out, no way he's resigning from presidency. so until further news this is going to stay above 93-94c NO anything else is just speculation.
0
Mrether
0 years ago
This is mispriced. He will drop out next week, and with that, there will be talk of whether he should resign. This speculation will push this to at least 25%, an easy 5x, even if he doesn't end up resigning.
Biden announcement on future today?
Master-bettor
0 years ago
what the hell is this even
1
Bitcoin above $58,000 on July 19?
Master-bettor
0 years ago
someone please buy my yes it's free money i need to quickly exit
0
Will Biden announce resignation by July 31?
Master-bettor
0 years ago
so why did u buy yes
6
WiseOne
1 year ago
He's got this. Biden remains confident that he'll stay in the race.
Biden confirmed to have Parkison's by July 31?
Master-bettor
0 years ago
"The results of this year's exam were detailed in my February 28th letter: 'An extremely detailed neurologic exam was again reassuring in that there were no findings which would be consistent with any cerebellar or other central neurological disorder, such as stroke, multiple sclerosis, Parkinson's, or ascending lateral sclerosis,'"
0
Will Biden pardon SBF?
Master-bettor
0 years ago
i'm okay with risk-free 14.6% irr
0
VibesGreaterRules
1 year ago
Better safe bets in other markets... This could take a very long time to resolve (Jan 2025) unless Biden pardons SBF.
Will China invade Taiwan in 2024?
Master-bettor
0 years ago
i dont think china will invade taiwan in 2024
0
Will Biden finish his term?
Master-bettor
1 year ago
Give me a reason why Biden would voluntarily resign. He may be pressured to drop out of the race but no ones telling him to resign lol. The only reason I can think of is either illness or death, which is definitely not 35% according to an actuarial table.
1
n/a
1 year ago
Kamala's only chance of winning is if she was experience as the president. Plus it would give her time to buy votes and pass bold new laws. Biden is cooked. If he drops out and kamala runs this is FREE.
Will Biden finish his term?
Master-bettor
1 year ago
now its -18k rip
0
41-17™askDomerWhatImean
1 year ago
Was -15k before, weird $5 balanced faggot
Martin Shkreli jail in 2024?
Master-bettor
1 year ago
TO JAIL(s) He Is not going. Have F a I T H in the shREKRLI
1