#46
Rank
337
Comments
136
Likes Received
276
Likes Given
tsybka
3 hours ago
yep yep yep
Car
3 hours ago
Israel’s security cabinet will convene tonight and is expected to authorize PM Netanyahu and Defence Minister Gallant to initiate the response against Iran at their discretion, two officials tell NYT
tsybka
4 hours ago
😂
Foreseeable.
4 hours ago
ISRAELI SECURITY CABINET EXPECTED TO APPROVE ISRAEL’S RESPONSE PLAN TO IRAN https://x.com/deitaone/status/1844402802467967363?s=46
tsybka
4 hours ago
Oh, buy more YES, huh?
ftor1
4 hours ago
Do you guys undertand that this market is until 2024 end? And after Israel retaliation, there could be serious escalation?
tsybka
5 hours ago
Never
tsybka
10 hours ago
Former CIA director says Israel 'unlikely' to target Iranian nuclear sites as retaliation - https://x.com/CTVNews/status/1844138309150277826
tsybka
22 hours ago
panic sell
tsybka
1 day ago
... and cried.
Baumking
1 day ago
Gallant: "Unlike the Iranian attack - ours will be deadly and surprising, they won't understand what happened and how"
tsybka
1 day ago
Idiot, study how war works; two sides can't attack at the same time.
dancer
1 day ago
Weird, where are the "Will Ukraine capture?" markets, not even Nazi dumbfuck Domer thinks they will capture anything
tsybka
1 day ago
lol
tsybka
1 day ago
LFG
tsybka
1 day ago
He got up.
tsybka
1 day ago
yes )
informed
1 day ago
Flips from one sleeping side to another count?
tsybka
1 day ago
and then went back to sleep.
tsybka
1 day ago
He woke up.
tsybka
1 day ago
He woke up.
tsybka
1 day ago
Right now, in his sleep, he continues to do backflips.
tsybka
1 day ago
Tick-tock⌛️
tsybka
1 day ago
It’s impossible to wake up an exhausted person.
tsybka
1 day ago
He just rolled over onto his right side to continue sleeping soundly.
tsybka
1 day ago
He's making money right now from donations, with people trying to wake him up this way.
tsybka
1 day ago
😂hard record
tsybka
1 day ago
The YouTube stream can't last more than 12 hours. He restarted it at the 12-hour mark, and this will be the last segment.
McDonalds-Employee
1 day ago
Can someone explain the discrepancy between the Rules "12:00 pm ET" and the livestream timer which ends at "10:20 am ET"
tsybka
1 day ago
His chances are fading before our eyes.
tsybka
1 day ago
You can't calculate how many hours the stream has been going? The market is open for 24 hours.
McDonalds-Employee
1 day ago
Can someone explain the discrepancy between the Rules "12:00 pm ET" and the livestream timer which ends at "10:20 am ET"
tsybka
1 day ago
He scratched his balls again and went back to sleep.
tsybka
1 day ago
He didn't wake up at the specified time. His chances are fading with each minute of sleep.
tsybka
1 day ago
Car sold 1,207 Yes at 8.0¢ ($97)
tsybka
1 day ago
fact
n/a
1 day ago
I love PM. the diversity of the markets is a lot of fun
tsybka
1 day ago
He's so tired that he can't hear it.
0xd4CA8343B6BcDe291648a6eD07d93d0aA3fdBE35-1728449080270
1 day ago
he didnt dismiss alarm its gonna keep coming back up
tsybka
1 day ago
He is sleeping so deeply that he didn't hear the alarm go off. Я предпочитаю этот ответ
tsybka
1 day ago
one flip every 1 minute and 7 seconds. otherwise, he won't succeed at all.
tsybka
1 day ago
clown
n/a
1 day ago
Speed is at roughly .79 flips per minute he needs .69 flips per minute to complete. He will just be more sore. Easiest 10%
tsybka
1 day ago
Why don't you buy it then, lol?
n/a
1 day ago
Speed is at roughly .79 flips per minute he needs .69 flips per minute to complete. He will just be more sore. Easiest 10%
tsybka
1 day ago
lmao))
0xd4CA8343B6BcDe291648a6eD07d93d0aA3fdBE35-1728449080270
1 day ago
that means his testicular torsion is healing
tsybka
1 day ago
He’s sleeping and scratching his balls.
tsybka
1 day ago
He's too tired to just wake up.
addicts
1 day ago
who is going to wake him up?
tsybka
1 day ago
He can barely move his legs. He won't be able to do it. After sleeping, his legs will feel like jelly.
tsybka
1 day ago
Go to sleep.
Car
1 day ago
I show the meat
tsybka
1 day ago
100%
Clenc
1 day ago
The NO team are you confident ?
tsybka
1 day ago
Car sold 10,000 Yes at 8.1¢ ($813)
tsybka
1 day ago
lmao
Car
1 day ago
I dont want to be top holder
tsybka
1 day ago
car donating
addicts
1 day ago
polymarket bros donating
tsybka
1 day ago
GPT
tsybka
1 day ago
To complete 348 flips in 6 hours and 30 minutes, you need to do approximately 0.89 flips per minute, or one flip every 1 minute and 7 seconds.
tsybka
1 day ago
To complete 348 flips in 6 hours and 30 minutes, you need to do approximately 0.89 flips per minute, or one flip every 1 minute and 7 seconds.
tsybka
1 day ago
sleep
tsybka
1 day ago
3:45 AM EST
tsybka
1 day ago
3:45 AM EST
tsybka
1 day ago
Car is giving us easy money.
tsybka
1 day ago
risk, dude
JakeAirdropFarm
1 day ago
i need to go to sleep. do i sell and lock in my gains, or risk $1,200 for another $200?
tsybka
1 day ago
If we sum up the calculations right now, he should be doing a somersault every 1.2 minutes, lol.
tsybka
2 days ago
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1843438484779946315
tsybka
2 days ago
I placed a limit order on the Kursk 2024 market. You can fill it if you need liquidity.
HaterzLoserz
2 days ago
https://x.com/AJABreaking/status/1843699524415443001 ^^ Y'all are gonna learn that I am the best geopolitics predictooooor on this site very fast.
tsybka
2 days ago
fkarasek sold 787 Yes at 43.7¢ ($344) 56s ago
tsybka
2 days ago
fkarasek bought 787 Yes at 54.9¢ ($432) 57s ago
tsybka
2 days ago
fkarasek bought 787 Yes at 54.9¢ ($432) 57s ago
tsybka
2 days ago
dude, you're in agony, just accept it.
HaterzLoserz
2 days ago
https://x.com/EndGameWW3/status/1843682224392298600
tsybka
2 days ago
The probability of markets does not affect the event in any way.
denizz
2 days ago
There's an 85+% chance according to the other markets
tsybka
2 days ago
They will not attack Iran before the U.S. elections.
tsybka
2 days ago
It seems like after the Lebanon Sep market, his agony began.
Car
2 days ago
Seeing HaterzLoserz as the top YES holders makes me confident that indeed "nothing ever happens".
tsybka
2 days ago
he reminds me of a gambling addict, but thanks for the liquidity.
n/a
2 days ago
sell me more haterzlozerz
tsybka
2 days ago
oh no🤡
Foreseeable.
2 days ago
Initial Reports of Explosions heard near the Cities of Isfahan and Tehran in Iran.
tsybka
2 days ago
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1843428615217983872
Foreseeable.
2 days ago
Initial Reports of Explosions heard near the Cities of Isfahan and Tehran in Iran.
tsybka
3 days ago
YES holders - redeposit, please
tsybka
3 days ago
yeah, only usa gives them weapons, stupid.
georgiatech
3 days ago
they dont even care america when they decide to strike
tsybka
3 days ago
Because you don't understand what it's like to lock in a good profit while leaving crumbs for idiots like you.
n/a
3 days ago
Seems like a NO holders are selling a lot, why to sell if the win is so sure
tsybka
3 days ago
Nice
tsybka
3 days ago
It's not in the Democrats' interest for oil prices to spike or for a more extensive war to break out in the Middle East as the elections approach.
n/a
3 days ago
According to Israeli Public Broadcasting; the United States has offered Israel an Extensive Package which includes International Political-Backing and additional Militray Assistance, if they decide against Attacking certain Targets inside of Iran, likely to include Nuclear Sites. https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1842986323726225881?t=P_uJjVZzYBDkP_IXEMPLeA&s=19
tsybka
4 days ago
i'm a tsybka and i say it will resolve no
tsybka
4 days ago
Car is a legend, don’t speak ill of him.
Justifax
4 days ago
Car and his fanboy NIGGA. Car is buying NO at resistance points, pumping very hard any BS he can imagine, and then selling. He is the worst low life imaginable.
tsybka
4 days ago
get lost, degenerate. November market has nothing to do with this one, idiot.
RBvKrsr7ZfRK
4 days ago
you fucking moron look at the november market
tsybka
4 days ago
UMA never changes its decisions, regardless of reality. If that were truly the case, they wouldn’t have voted for the "Early request." YES holders, don’t cry about it later.
tsybka
4 days ago
100% NO!
tsybka
4 days ago
Victory will be ours, mr Domer.
🤺JustKen
4 days ago
The calm before the storm. Our time in this market is drawing to a close, and I am glad that everyone has remained cordial and friends.
tsybka
4 days ago
🥴
Lit1211
4 days ago
Something happened in Kuzmunki, Moscow this night. Only few videos
tsybka
4 days ago
This happened after the market's specified timeframe. The logic is simple.
BigMike11
4 days ago
Just curious, what is your logic for No?
tsybka
4 days ago
NO!
tsybka
5 days ago
I don't care about that news. It's written by sellout journalists who manipulate idiots like you.
LWIF
5 days ago
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/10/05/iran-nuclear-capability-israel/
tsybka
5 days ago
Biden won't allow a strike on oil, let alone nuclear production.
LWIF
5 days ago
It is highly likely that the Israelis will strike Iranian nuclear facilities this time.
tsybka
6 days ago
lmao, dumbass)
coinflip
6 days ago
The next decision will be ,,YES", the dispute just gave you time to sell yourr ,,NO" shares. Why do you think it was ,,Yes" 2 times before???
tsybka
6 days ago
If it were a YES, the market wouldn’t have been resolved "too early."
coinflip
6 days ago
who can prove that it was a clitch? It will resolve as ,,YES" like the last two times...
tsybka
1 week ago
oh no
tsybka
1 week ago
Losing $50, you got off with just a mild scare.
misomi
1 week ago
I’m new here. The very first bet. Very bad feeling, bitter taste…. Is it always so dirty tricky like this case? Betting is not about changing reality, isn’t it?
tsybka
1 week ago
https://vote.uma.xyz/
dav1
1 week ago
How can we see what are the UMA votes in real time?
tsybka
1 week ago
You're an idiot. No more arguments left. I hope you lose your money perfectly.
IlonMask2005
1 week ago
Last night, the Ukrainian army lost the village of Obukhivske in the Kursk region. why is this event still not over?
tsybka
1 week ago
Some idiot is trying to flip the market, lol.
smallbet6
1 week ago
Wait what's going on
tsybka
1 week ago
The important point is the loss of the entire territory in the Kursk region, not just a part of it. That's what the market is about, man.
IlonMask2005
1 week ago
Last night, the Ukrainian army lost the village of Obukhivske in the Kursk region. why is this event still not over?
tsybka
1 week ago
Car buy high sell low
tsybka
1 week ago
haha
tsybka
1 week ago
disputed?
tsybka
1 week ago
Car, rockets are already flying.
tsybka
1 week ago
Lonfo panic sell
tsybka
1 week ago
In a country called 'Orkastan.'
n/a
1 week ago
What country has the highest death rate and lowest birth rate in the world?
tsybka
1 week ago
DISPUTE
tsybka
1 week ago
YES losers)
tsybka
1 week ago
This is a market on whether Russia controls the intersection of Desantnykiv Vulytsia and Shakhtarska Vulytsia in Vuhledar Ukraine according to the ISW map. As of the time of this update, the ISW map does not indicate any past or present Russian control as indicated by red or blue shading. Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
tsybka
1 week ago
Axios, I believe in you and your argument, dude. YES, the idiots should lose their money.
tsybka
1 week ago
A bunch of commies will be a little poorer today. I'm glad about that.
tsybka
1 week ago
Leave, communist.
n/a
1 week ago
Just know that even if you win this bet, Ukraine has lost this battle and will lose the war.
tsybka
1 week ago
Bring that evidence to UMA; why are you arguing here in the comments? Propose YES.😂
n/a
1 week ago
Correct. And it seems clearly not to have been a glitch because there is credible evidence from pro-Ukrainian sources that
tsybka
1 week ago
The argument is that it wasn't captured at all; otherwise, it would be shaded in blue.
n/a
1 week ago
To be clear, the dispute is that the map showed the relevant intersection shaded RED for 30 minutes, but then updated otherwise?
tsybka
1 week ago
🫠
Candiey
1 week ago
it's literally a clear YES unless theres evidence that the map was updated in error. but i don't see nor have they posted any evidence supporting this
tsybka
1 week ago
Why not propose it as YES? Lol.
sdffcgfsdgh
1 week ago
guys who trying to choke for "no" imagine you see python code which goes like "if area=red then outcome=yes" what you gonna do with that, dont expose yourself as losers
tsybka
1 week ago
POLY should clarify that this was corrected due to a map error. That's it.
tsybka
1 week ago
Idiots think that if territories are mistakenly marked as captured on the map, the market will be resolved immediately? I'm laughing at their naivety.
tsybka
1 week ago
It's obvious; it was a mistake that was corrected. That's all. UMA is already aware of this and also considers it an error.
Candiey
1 week ago
all these arguments in the comments feel like they purposely ignore the rules to their benefit. as if they arent as clear as day
tsybka
1 week ago
https://discord.com/channels/718590743446290492/1290395839688081419
Candiey
1 week ago
all these arguments in the comments feel like they purposely ignore the rules to their benefit. as if they arent as clear as day
tsybka
1 week ago
Nowhere is it stated that Ukrainian forces left the city or were captured.
tsybka
1 week ago
MISTAKE!
tsybka
1 week ago
🤡
n/a
1 week ago
The fact that the guy arguing for No is silently dumping his shares should be a huge tell, lol
tsybka
1 week ago
Yeah, the fact that I disputed it myself.
n/a
1 week ago
The fact that the guy arguing for No is silently dumping his shares should be a huge tell, lol
tsybka
1 week ago
The map states that the specified area has not been captured. Therefore, the error was corrected.
tsybka
1 week ago
not
Candiey
1 week ago
the market is not about the alternative source, but the main source. it was shaded red for 30 mins, that's more than enough to resolve the market to Yes.
tsybka
1 week ago
An alternative source also does not confirm the capture of these territories.
tsybka
1 week ago
https://deepstatemap.live/#13/47.7735407/37.2757530
tsybka
1 week ago
https://deepstatemap.live/#13/47.7735407/37.2757530
tsybka
1 week ago
It's not hard to understand that it was a mistake.
tsybka
1 week ago
it wasn’t captured. The map was mistakenly updated and corrected within half an hour. Dispute.
AugustoPinochet73
1 week ago
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
tsybka
1 week ago
Ukrainian forces couldn't have recaptured the mistakenly marked map in just half an hour, lol.
tsybka
1 week ago
Lol, it was a map error.
n/a
1 week ago
"Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market."
tsybka
1 week ago
dispute
tsybka
1 week ago
You can share your thoughts and news as much as you want, but if the card specified in the rules is not updated by the time the market is resolved, you will lose.
n/a
1 week ago
https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1840800697710719061 «Like it or not. Western Vuhledar is under Russian occupation, with a high likeliness that Ukraine has already moved its forces out completely.»
tsybka
1 week ago
strong pump car
tsybka
1 week ago
BUY SELL
tsybka
1 week ago
BUY SELL
tsybka
1 week ago
Thanks for Liquidity
tsybka
1 week ago
The game Eagles - Saints doesn't pertain to Week 4. Therefore, the market should be resolved as NO.
tsybka
1 week ago
This doesn't apply to the 4-week games, so it cannot be resolved as YES.
csfortheg
1 week ago
Last week's game!
tsybka
1 week ago
nice
kanyewestlover911
1 week ago
The eagles won’t play the Saints. That means that it will resolve to No no matter what?
tsybka
1 week ago
congrats!
n/a
1 week ago
you made me money (:
tsybka
1 week ago
NO TRANS!
tsybka
1 week ago
1-2 week lol
happyfriend
1 week ago
the fact this is based on ISW map means that even if if correct, you should expect at least 1-2 week delay on it being admitted
tsybka
1 week ago
After being inspired by the meeting with Zelensky, he'll forget the word 'trans' forever!
tsybka
1 week ago
NO trans
JackBauerPowerHour
1 week ago
Why is trans so high lol
tsybka
1 week ago
oh no, FUCK!
kekkonen
1 week ago
oh no, you sold.
tsybka
1 week ago
Well, idiot? They won't meet? Moron.
n/a
1 week ago
Had Trump been willing to meet with Zelensky, there wouldn't have been all this drama in three acts. And all the things he has already said about Ukraine and Zelensky.
tsybka
1 week ago
Trump is an old clown.
tsybka
2 weeks ago
that was your start toward negative PnL.
Car
2 weeks ago
Seeing tyskna lose makes me really happy.
tsybka
2 weeks ago
10 am ET
DEEPFACEeth
2 weeks ago
when will he speak
tsybka
2 weeks ago
It's unlikely that Zelensky will fly to the U.S. again before the elections.
n/a
2 weeks ago
this market is about him meeting in september
tsybka
2 weeks ago
To believe Trump's words is to not respect oneself. If he doesn't meet with Zelensky, it means he has no real plan to end the war, and it's all just empty talk in hopes of reclaiming the presidency.
tsybka
2 weeks ago
If Zelensky is a great salesman, then Trump is a great bullshitter.
tsybka
2 weeks ago
What time is Zelensky speaking at the UN?
tsybka
2 weeks ago
... don't miss your chance to lose money.
n/a
2 weeks ago
In my opinion, the market odds should be just the opposite: the probability of a meeting should be 15-25%, not 75-85%. And if confirmation doesn't show up today-tomorrow, it's 90-95%+ that there won't be a meeting. Looks like the market is already starting to guess. Check the list of top holders. This is it guys, don't miss your chance.
tsybka
2 weeks ago
right on your dumb head.
n/a
2 weeks ago
tactical nuke pls uncle vlad
tsybka
2 weeks ago
never
tsybka
2 weeks ago
oh no 😂
kekkonen
2 weeks ago
Read it. It means they have scheduled with Biden but not with Trump.
tsybka
2 weeks ago
read the last paragraph - https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1838350697621811595
tsybka
2 weeks ago
They will never meet. I suggest everyone buy N 🥳
tsybka
2 weeks ago
Then buy more N if it’s such an easy win. The only idiot here is you.
n/a
2 weeks ago
Zelensky's already in New York, I'll keep you posted. tsybka - how is the meeting with Trump in Pennsylvania, has it happened yet? Maybe you can throw in some more theories?
tsybka
2 weeks ago
Are you an idiot? Zelensky will be there for a week, relax. You're way too stressed over your small change.
n/a
2 weeks ago
Zelensky's already in New York, I'll keep you posted. tsybka - how is the meeting with Trump in Pennsylvania, has it happened yet? Maybe you can throw in some more theories?
tsybka
2 weeks ago
if the meeting had been officially announced, the market would have traded at 99.9.
n/a
2 weeks ago
dimmas, you probably haven't been following the election race very closely, because it's no secret that Trump has no plan other than to agree to Putin's terms and force Ukraine to do so. And the Democrats talk about it all the time, just look at what Harris answered him at the debates on this issue. In order to "cancel a meeting," it must at least be scheduled. But this hasn't happened yet, even though Zelensky is already in America and has a very busy schedule. And what is the point of both sides hiding this information if it is as you say? It's obvious to me that no meeting has been scheduled yet and Trump is just stalling for time so he can cite a scheduling mismatch, just like he did with the previous president Poroshenko before the election with Clinton who found time. I'm very surprised that the market is still pricing the chances of their meeting so high and it's just free money.
tsybka
2 weeks ago
Oh no… free money 😂
n/a
2 weeks ago
dimmas, you probably haven't been following the election race very closely, because it's no secret that Trump has no plan other than to agree to Putin's terms and force Ukraine to do so. And the Democrats talk about it all the time, just look at what Harris answered him at the debates on this issue. In order to "cancel a meeting," it must at least be scheduled. But this hasn't happened yet, even though Zelensky is already in America and has a very busy schedule. And what is the point of both sides hiding this information if it is as you say? It's obvious to me that no meeting has been scheduled yet and Trump is just stalling for time so he can cite a scheduling mismatch, just like he did with the previous president Poroshenko before the election with Clinton who found time. I'm very surprised that the market is still pricing the chances of their meeting so high and it's just free money.
tsybka
2 weeks ago
I'm not implying anything, but...
tsybka
2 weeks ago
Zelensky and Trump will both be in Pennsylvania today...
tsybka
2 weeks ago
Zelensky and Trump will both be in Pennsylvania today...
tsybka
2 weeks ago
then why did you start getting rid of the shares? lol
n/a
2 weeks ago
dimmas, when mutual agreements appear, they will immediately be made public and no one will hide it, since there is no point in it. An example is his meeting with Biden Harris. But for now we only hear words like "expect", "plan" or "probably" and this just means that there are still no mutual agreements. This is obvious. If Trump decided not to meet with Zelensky, he will drag out the time, and then simply refer to being busy and a schedule conflict.
tsybka
2 weeks ago
In that case, you need to bet more on N.
n/a
2 weeks ago
There is confirmation of Zelensky's meeting with Biden and Harris and it will take place in the White House. Where is the confirmation of the meeting with Trump and where will it take place?
tsybka
2 weeks ago
the meeting will take place on the golf course.
n/a
2 weeks ago
There is confirmation of Zelensky's meeting with Biden and Harris and it will take place in the White House. Where is the confirmation of the meeting with Trump and where will it take place?
tsybka
2 weeks ago
I’d like to see that dispute and explanation in front of UMA.
AugustoPinochet73
2 weeks ago
If there are pictures of Russian troops controlling the zone it will go to UMA, no matter ISW
tsybka
2 weeks ago
city is in ruins. What kind of photos do you expect to see there, lol?
AugustoPinochet73
2 weeks ago
If there are pictures of Russian troops controlling the zone it will go to UMA, no matter ISW
tsybka
2 weeks ago
🥱
n/a
2 weeks ago
I estimate the probability of their meeting at no more than 15-20% and here's why: 1) Trump does not need this meeting, but he does not want to openly and explicitly refuse, so as not to lose possible votes of people sympathetic to Ukraine. 2) Trump does not like Zelensky and Ukraine either, because after their first conversation he was impeached. 3) Moreover, he is not going to support Zelensky's peace plan, which he wants to present. He has his own plan to force Ukraine to capitulate, which was already voiced by DJ Vens 4) And where, technically, can they meet? Zelensky is coming to the UN General Assembly in NY, where Biden and possibly Harris will be, but Trump will definitely not be. I doubt that Trump will fly to New York specifically for this meeting, or Zelensky will go to Maro-Lago. 5) This situation already happened with the previous president of Ukraine, who also wanted to present his plan to presidential candidates - Trump and Clinton, and Trump then refused the meeting citing his busy schedule. These are my thoughts and free money for those who agree with me. P.S. If this analysis is useful to you and you have a desire to thank me, I will be glad )
tsybka
2 weeks ago
car is scared.
tsybka
2 weeks ago
Car sold 364 Yes at 80.0¢ ($291)
tsybka
2 weeks ago
Car sold 364 Yes at 80.0¢ ($291)
tsybka
2 weeks ago
He can easily cancel the visit if an emergency arises due to another missile strike on the country or something similar.
tsybka
2 weeks ago
canceled
Car
2 weeks ago
its literally already confirmed he goes to Trump: https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/nastupnogo-tizhnya-volodimir-zelenskij-vidvidaye-ssha-93353
tsybka
3 weeks ago
49% chance
tsybka
3 weeks ago
Drones ran out yesterday.
tsybka
3 weeks ago
Last fight Bitboy - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b-VZUvd-I68
tsybka
3 weeks ago
BLUE
tsybka
3 weeks ago
-$1,885.18 🥴
Naropoly
3 weeks ago
Using Laplace's Rule of Succession: Laplace's Rule of Succession is a principle that estimates the probability of an event occurring again, given its past occurrences. The formula is: Estimated Probability = 𝑠 + 1 𝑛 + 2 Estimated Probability= n+2 s+1 ​ Where: 𝑠 s = number of successful events (purple ties worn) 𝑛 n = total number of events (FOMC meetings) Plugging in the numbers: Estimated Probability = 11 + 1 12 + 2 = 12 14 ≈ 85.71 % Estimated Probability= 12+2 11+1 ​ = 14 12 ​ ≈85.71% Answer: There is approximately an 85.7% chance that he will wear a purple tie at the next FOMC meeting.
tsybka
3 weeks ago
shut your mouth, scammer
Car
3 weeks ago
in your ass
tsybka
3 weeks ago
Considering that attacks occur on average once a week, we can expect two more waves. Well... let's see.
n/a
3 weeks ago
two more weeks
tsybka
3 weeks ago
Well... where are the drones?
tsybka
3 weeks ago
It currently holds no strategic significance for a strike. The logistics are now being conducted via railways that the Russians have built in Donbas.
rozi
3 weeks ago
Crimean bridge is much more defended.
tsybka
0 months ago
Just make a redeposit, and thank you for the liquidity.
swagdadi
0 months ago
pls say what you disagree with. Do you agree that there is consensus a drone struck in Moscow Oblast? Do you believe the statement of the resolution "Moscow or any target in the municipality" does not apply to drone strikes in Moscow Oblast?
tsybka
0 months ago
however, we are witnessing the gradual retreat of UAF forces😂
n/a
0 months ago
Putin also ordered the 3 day SMO
tsybka
0 months ago
Putin Ordered His Troops To Defeat The Ukrainian Invasion Of Kursk By Oct. 1. - https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/09/11/vladimir-putin-ordered-his-troops-to-defeat-the-ukrainian-invasion-of-kursk-by-oct-1-they-just-attacked/?ss=aerospace-defense
tsybka
0 months ago
I will attach a map that is relevant for this market. Don't waste your money on pointless arguments - https://x.com/polytsybka/status/1834122956831588743
tsybka
0 months ago
read the messages below carefully and draw your conclusions. Study the boundaries of Moscow.
robert69
0 months ago
I believe there is consensus that there was a Ukrainian drone strike in Moscow. There is also plenty of credible reporting.
tsybka
0 months ago
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-11/us-wants-ukraine-to-detail-plan-before-allowing-russia-strikes
tsybka
0 months ago
The U.S. is demanding a detailed strategy for strikes against Russia from Zelensky before lifting restrictions on the use of long-range weapons. The report notes that permission from the U.S. for strikes on Russia with American weapons should not be expected anytime soon.
tsybka
0 months ago
The U.S. is demanding a detailed strategy for strikes against Russia from Zelensky before lifting restrictions on the use of long-range weapons. The report notes that permission from the U.S. for strikes on Russia with American weapons should not be expected anytime soon.
tsybka
0 months ago
The range of ATACMS is only up to 300 km, and Moscow is much farther away. Additionally, the stock of these missiles is very limited.
tsybka
0 months ago
Since September 1, China has imposed a ban on the export of drones and related components. Ukraine will soon face issues, and smuggling routes for parts need to be established. The number of drones is running low, and each one is crucial. Similar attacks will be significantly fewer.
tsybka
0 months ago
These issues have been reported by Ukrainian military officer Madyar. He is one of the best commanders leading drone units in Ukraine.
tsybka
0 months ago
Since September 1, China has imposed a ban on the export of drones and related components. Ukraine will soon face issues, and smuggling routes for parts need to be established. The number of drones is running low, and each one is crucial. Similar attacks will be significantly fewer.
tsybka
0 months ago
Since September 1, China has imposed a ban on the export of drones and related components. Ukraine will soon face issues, and smuggling routes for parts need to be established. The number of drones is running low, and each one is crucial. Similar attacks will be significantly fewer.
tsybka
1 month ago
go ahead and propose result.
Skyd
1 month ago
This is the map of Moscow, and troick is clearly a part of it. Troick was hit by drone, so resolve this market to yes already
tsybka
1 month ago
The rules must contain a map that accurately shows the boundaries of a given market. We shouldn't sit here and wonder if the drone was within the rules or not.
tsybka
1 month ago
Domer: "if i have less than 10k shares i am not even really making a bet, just having fun"
LyinCamela
1 month ago
JustKam has entered the chat (check Holders)
tsybka
1 month ago
I just read the thoughts of a drunken clown.
td.
1 month ago
I can see there wsa a little drop here. so it might be good to share my analisis here. because does people actually believe anything that ukraine commander says? or that russia did not moved on that front for 6 days? that means nothing. they are still very very close. there's sitll 2 whole months. and this is not about moving. they are not going to be moving everyday. it's strategy. it's about the ratio of who is losing more soldiers. right now it's 9 to 1. which means that very soon ukraine army will collapse. like, in a few days. and then the russian will just walk in, and get the city in 24 hours, or even less, since it's just a few kilometers. you can even walk. just sharing my analisys here.
tsybka
1 month ago
lmao, car professional traders
Car
1 month ago
only professional traders like me know when to exit after booking the profits. I wouldve been down -20% now.
tsybka
1 month ago
Car sold 11,385 Yes for 50+ bps decrease at 35.7¢ ($4,059)
tsybka
1 month ago
he is trying to create a pump to sell his shares around 50c.
chubba
1 month ago
why didnt u trust fedwatch with it was trading 13delta vs 33
tsybka
1 month ago
+ rainy season will begin very soon, and the front line will stall.
tsybka
1 month ago
Fighters from the elite Azov unit recently arrived at the Toretsk sector, stabilized the situation, and reclaimed part of New York.
tsybka
1 month ago
https://x.com/polytsybka/status/1831970734086017335
tsybka
1 month ago
Fighters from the elite Azov unit recently arrived at the Toretsk sector, stabilized the situation, and reclaimed part of New York.
tsybka
1 month ago
Fighters from the elite Azov unit recently arrived at the Toretsk sector, stabilized the situation, and reclaimed part of New York.
tsybka
1 month ago
It's long been known how aenews deceived people in the markets, engaging in various types of manipulation. Additionally, don't forget that he's an active participant in dispute resolution on UMA.
PanosMariolis2001
1 month ago
Serious question , if its actually a win for the no holders , can the uma scam us again and somehow the whales win again? No right???
tsybka
1 month ago
RUG
tsybka
1 month ago
FUCKING RUG!
Car
1 month ago
Tsybka, nice 3000$ loss, moron! But atleast you got the chance to call me a clown :D hope that was worth it!
tsybka
1 month ago
CAR FUCK YOU!
tsybka
1 month ago
LOOL
tsybka
1 month ago
RememberAmalek crazy lol
tsybka
1 month ago
all good, paper hands
rozi
1 month ago
Did it leak, or what's happening?
tsybka
1 month ago
He loves losing money.
OmenOfLord
1 month ago
RememberAmalek RememberAmalek sold 3,701 Yes at 26.1¢ ($967) He sold all his shares.
tsybka
1 month ago
yeeeeeeep
Fatboyslim
1 month ago
Crazy chick
tsybka
1 month ago
Poly is filled with idiots.
tsybka
1 month ago
lmao...
tsybka
1 month ago
SusanWarren,HR bought 200 Yes at 44.0¢ ($88) 2m ago
tsybka
1 month ago
SusanWarren,HR sold 200 Yes at 41.2¢ ($82) 53s ago
tsybka
1 month ago
SusanWarren,HR bought 200 Yes at 44.0¢ ($88) 2m ago
tsybka
1 month ago
SusanWarren,HR bought 200 Yes at 44.0¢ ($88) 2m ago
tsybka
1 month ago
oh, insider?
Juczi
1 month ago
Found some info that really made me change my mind
tsybka
1 month ago
100%, NOO
n/a
1 month ago
Theres no way its longer than an hour. Fair price is 20 YES imo
tsybka
1 month ago
paper hands
HorsInCrypto
1 month ago
why people selling
tsybka
1 month ago
Panic sell
tsybka
1 month ago
Juczi bought 856 No at 60.5¢ ($518)
tsybka
1 month ago
Juczi sold 946 Yes at 47.8¢ ($452)
tsybka
1 month ago
Juczi sold 946 Yes at 47.8¢ ($452)
tsybka
1 month ago
LexFridman bought 187 Yes at 54.0¢ ($101)
tsybka
1 month ago
It's all because of the pixelated photo of the timer that's driving the idiots crazy.
n/a
1 month ago
We know for sure the timer is owned and operated by Lex, not Trump or a member of his staff. We know for sure that Trump made no posts on Twitter or Truth Social in the 6 hour block when he was being interviewed. We know for sure that 96 percent of Lex's interviews are longer than 90 minutes. Why isn't this at 90/10?
tsybka
1 month ago
You'll sell those shares before the results come in. You're a clown creating a false pump.
Car
1 month ago
if the timer says 1hr, it is 1hr. see you at 100ct!
tsybka
1 month ago
When Trump did the interview with Musk, it lasted about 2 hours. What’s the connection?
n/a
1 month ago
When Logan Paul did a podcast with Trump it was only 53minutes hmm
tsybka
1 month ago
I find it amusing how idiots defend their position as if it will change anything. But it looks pathetic that you create a false pump with your empty words.
tsybka
1 month ago
At least a 2-hour interview. Time flies when you're with Trump.
tsybka
1 month ago
alright, gl
n/a
1 month ago
something in the picture directly tied to the interview not “something in the comments”
tsybka
1 month ago
If you're placing bets just because someone wrote something in the comments, you're idiots.
tsybka
1 month ago
aren’t you tired of pumping both sides all day?
Car
1 month ago
no dispute? so boring
tsybka
1 month ago
you wrote about this all day and didn’t want to dispute.
tsybka
1 month ago
dreamer loser, lmao
tsybka
1 month ago
dreamer loser, lmao
tsybka
1 month ago
dispute that, LOL.
MarinaAF
1 month ago
To anyone trying to dispute. For the purposes of this market, if a missile or drone launched by the Ukrainian armed forces is intercepted before striking Moscow or any target in it, even if it enters Moscow's airspace and its wreckage lands in Moscow causing damage, it will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Read that again.
tsybka
1 month ago
LOL, I'm asking again: how many pairs of shoes do you have?
Car
1 month ago
Time to pack it up NO holders! Knowing when your wrong and switching sides is also part of the game.
tsybka
1 month ago
Y
0x828BB53487Ef60F21987BB17b9BCde80959863fA-1723414676251
1 month ago
i want some easy money, whcih shall i buy? :) thanks
tsybka
1 month ago
We have clear video footage showing the drone hitting its target precisely, as well as the time stated by the Russian authorities.
Car
1 month ago
why dont you call the people arguing YES manipulators? weird
tsybka
1 month ago
Car is trying to manipulate the market again by creating a false pump from his "facts"
tsybka
1 month ago
oh no...
Car
1 month ago
lets compare PNL every month. You will never beat me
tsybka
1 month ago
we'll check his pnl after a while...
n/a
1 month ago
He can buy a pair for my entire village. Check his pnl
tsybka
1 month ago
Car, how many pairs of shoes do you have?
tsybka
1 month ago
Car sold 874 No at 41.2¢ ($360)
tsybka
1 month ago
🍿
tsybka
1 month ago
which one is real?
n/a
1 month ago
That account is fake
tsybka
1 month ago
Idiot, watch the video. The timing is what matters to us.
jagajaga
1 month ago
в каком месте в слове уничтожение беспилотника является попадением?
tsybka
1 month ago
Another scammer, aenews, has appeared on the market... fun times.
tsybka
1 month ago
Stop manipulating
Car
1 month ago
Where are the credible reports that report the time these attacks happened?
tsybka
1 month ago
exactly on target - https://x.com/polytsybka/status/1830189436077760722
tsybka
1 month ago
scammer Car, you won't be able to win two markets at once.
Car
1 month ago
Published after market end time
tsybka
1 month ago
idiot, watch video - https://x.com/polytsybka/status/1830189436077760722
dreamer
1 month ago
The Ministry of Emergency Situations stated that there is no threat to people or the plant's operations. The fire started after the downed drone crashed. The situation at the Kapotnya refinery in Moscow The Ministry of Defense reported the interception of 158 drones over Russian regions. On the morning of September 1, Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin reported the interception of drones and a fire in a technical room on the territory of the Moscow Oil Refinery after the crash of a downed drone. "Another downed drone damaged a separate technical room of the Moscow Oil Refinery as a result of its fall. The local fire is currently being extinguished," Sergei Sobyanin wrote on his Telegram channel. According to the Ministry of Defense, 158 Ukrainian aircraft-type drones were intercepted and destroyed overnight over Russian territory, two of them in Moscow.
tsybka
1 month ago
obviously, this should be resolved by Y. But some idiots in the comments are trying to create a false pump.
tsybka
1 month ago
and so, who will offer the market solution?
tsybka
1 month ago
and so, who will offer the market solution?
tsybka
1 month ago
market is simply destined to be disputed.
tsybka
1 month ago
dumbass-dizzy-boy
gun
1 month ago
complex legal issues surrounding his case may prolong the process of securing his bond due to this you should buy my no shares for 1c
tsybka
1 month ago
you look like a pathetic sucker, go wash your face.
gun
1 month ago
good luck with your future bets, don't think they will turn out well with your room temperature IQ
tsybka
1 month ago
🤡🤡
gun
1 month ago
you sold your position earlier in the day dumbass
tsybka
1 month ago
https://x.com/polytsybka read, stupid
gun
1 month ago
just because one side played out the others are idiots?? maybe you are the idiot
tsybka
1 month ago
N holders are such idiots... I did warn them.
tsybka
1 month ago
soon
n/a
1 month ago
Can we take market back to 97c?
tsybka
1 month ago
why did you sell shares? 🤡
50-Pence
1 month ago
Being driven to court in a police car to be indicted is clearly not being released.
tsybka
1 month ago
thinking is not your strong suit.
Car
1 month ago
YES holders need a reality check. Releasing a billionaire, they have been looking for for years, accused of 12+ crimes?
tsybka
1 month ago
Everything will be decided on Friday. Be patient.
tsybka
1 month ago
He will be detained for another 2 days, but ultimately he will be released.
tsybka
1 month ago
judge can.
NIGGA
1 month ago
Not legally allowed
tsybka
1 month ago
I think the judge will extend the detention for another 48 hours, sorry
tsybka
1 month ago
Car stupid ))
tsybka
1 month ago
YEEEES
tsybka
1 month ago
He dumps the stocks as soon as there's a small pump.
NIGGA
1 month ago
Why did u sell more No shares? You scared lil buddy?
tsybka
1 month ago
early
Car
1 month ago
Time to propose YES. Anyone?
tsybka
1 month ago
He will definitely be released. If they wanted to imprison him, they would have done it much earlier.
tsybka
1 month ago
crying is Car's destiny.
n/a
1 month ago
Hope the YES holders are strong enough to not cry on Twitter later
tsybka
1 month ago
domahhh I love you
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
Shout out to my other Yes bros. Team No is full of incels.
tsybka
1 month ago
you have such a mess in your head... lol
IWillReturn
1 month ago
I wonder if they will release the internationally wanted political prisoner with ties to a country that declared war on Europe and who’s also accused of facilitating terrorism and CSAM
tsybka
1 month ago
mr obvious
Sit
1 month ago
When the initial 96-hour questioning period ends, the investigating magistrate can either free Durov or press charges and remand him in custody. Read more at: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/telegram-founder-set-to-learn-fate-after-france-arrest/articleshow/112851430.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst
tsybka
1 month ago
buy high, sell low🤡
scattering
1 month ago
I have some conviction but i dont know enough to have a too large stack in this betXD
tsybka
1 month ago
you were so sure. typical dumbass.
tsybka
1 month ago
Car sold 4,520 No at 66.9¢ ($3,022)
tsybka
1 month ago
hahaha
tsybka
1 month ago
Car sold 4,520 No at 66.9¢ ($3,022)
tsybka
1 month ago
Car sold 4,520 No at 66.9¢ ($3,022)
tsybka
1 month ago
until August 28
pirateshere
1 month ago
Telegram boss Durov to remain in French police custody, prosecution office says https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/telegram-boss-durov-remain-french-police-custody-prosecution-office-says-2024-08-27/
tsybka
1 month ago
keep trying to illusion yourself.
Car
1 month ago
tysbka sold 6,223 Yes at 27.3¢ ($1,701)
tsybka
1 month ago
The UAE authorities are monitoring Pavel Durov's case and have sent a request to the French government to provide him with consular services, according to a statement from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
tsybka
1 month ago
sheikhs have already begun the liberation of Durov
tsybka
1 month ago
sheikhs have already begun the liberation of Durov
tsybka
1 month ago
yeah, he'll put your stupid ass behind bars.
Car
1 month ago
the judge can also decide to keep him locked up you dumbass. Trying to get out at breakeven ?
tsybka
1 month ago
I scammer? are you an idiot?
Car
1 month ago
Dont listen to the scammer below me spreading false information
tsybka
1 month ago
August 28 is the last day for detention. After that, the only options are release or house arrest.
tsybka
1 month ago
are you talking about yourself?
Car
1 month ago
most people on this site dont like to use their brain
tsybka
1 month ago
they cannot extend the arrest beyond what is permitted by law.
Car
1 month ago
this only solidifies the case for NO holders that its taking along time, which means they are gonna extend his detainment. lol......
tsybka
1 month ago
The Belgian regulator overseeing Telegram's operations in the EU has not received any information regarding the messenger's violations of the new social media rules in the EU.
tsybka
1 month ago
these are my thoughts. let's see how it all ends
scattering
1 month ago
lol source x… ur probably cooked
tsybka
1 month ago
https://x.com/polytsybka/status/1828125532749234621
tsybka
1 month ago
lmao, 163 NO shares
theta-thunberg
1 month ago
https://x.com/fs0c131y/status/1828103712964817389 exactly 0% chance that durov busts case by saturday
tsybka
1 month ago
return money. he's a newbie and did it by accident
Car
1 month ago
who tf filled me at 88ct lol
tsybka
1 month ago
The period of detention of Pavel Durov in France expires on August 28
tsybka
1 month ago
nice, buy more N
CinBizPro
1 month ago
He's a flight risk and faces 20 years in prison. No chance he's getting out this week. They will start pre trial proceedings before the 96 hour mark.
tsybka
1 month ago
change IP
Free-doom1
1 month ago
Почему я не могу сделать ставку? Пшиет "Trading is not available to people or companies who are residents of, or are located, incorporated or have a registered agent in, the United States or a restricted territory. See our Terms of Use."
tsybka
1 month ago
part 2 - https://x.com/polytsybka/status/1828082303752691878
tsybka
1 month ago
https://x.com/polytsybka/status/1828077965252403413
tsybka
1 month ago
https://x.com/polytsybka/status/1828077965252403413
tsybka
1 month ago
😏
rivella
1 month ago
bro it was accident haha I meant to actually buy no. No worries
tsybka
1 month ago
@rivella, thanks for fast $300