#13
Rank
929
Comments
519
Likes Received
1644
Likes Given
Apsalar
2 months ago
haha a small fraction of that profit is from music so no worries. and i mentioned beyonce's flop album, although i would argue that billie is even more of a grammy darling on a pound for pound basis.
Apsalar
2 months ago
when is the last time AOY felt this up for grabs?
Apsalar
2 months ago
SOS, Ocean blvd, Guts, and the Record was stronger competition than this year's imo. Billie is obviously a grammy darling, but besides her the only big league competition is Beyone's flop album. BRAT is probably a stronger dark horse than The Record was, but overall still worse competition imo.
Apsalar
2 months ago
when is the last time AOY felt this up for grabs?
Apsalar
2 months ago
midnights was even worse (imo) and it won. but as i said, not confident in any album this year, just think swift's is a bit mispriced
Apsalar
2 months ago
when is the last time AOY felt this up for grabs?
Apsalar
2 months ago
when is the last time AOY felt this up for grabs?
Apsalar
2 months ago
ansem bros got too cocky
Apsalar
2 months ago
oh no they made andrew tate even more gay
Apsalar
2 months ago
thanks
Apsalar
2 months ago
what time is this expected to start?
Apsalar
2 months ago
fuck you
Apsalar
2 months ago
what time is this expected to start?
Apsalar
2 months ago
what time is this expected to start?
Apsalar
2 months ago
if the old man dies then kamala becomes President
Car
2 months ago
is the old man dead?
Apsalar
2 months ago
it's almost definitely a typo that will soon be corrected
nuggetsharambe
2 months ago
Record of the year or song of the year ???
Apsalar
2 months ago
record of the year
nuggetsharambe
2 months ago
Record of the year or song of the year ???
Apsalar
3 months ago
guy who hedges by buying an equal amount of every option
Apsalar
3 months ago
Fredi9999 has the opportunity to do the funniest thing of all time
Apsalar
3 months ago
@Timetraveler the convert button is available in the positions tab
Apsalar
3 months ago
can long-term no holders please sell their shares here (currently for 64) and then buy them back here https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-swing-states-will-trump-win?tid=1730090459791 (can currently buy it back for 60 by buying an equal amount of NO for 0 and 7 and the converting shares). thanks ❤️
Apsalar
3 months ago
Don't sleep on Al Gross
Apsalar
3 months ago
@090x for example, to buy back 1000 shares in the other market at 60 cents you could buy 1000 NO of 0 at 67c for $670. Then you can convert those NO shares into 1000 YES shares in every other bracket. Then you could sell the 1000 YES shares you got for the 0state option at 7c to get back $70. Thus, your net money spent would be $600 and you would now have 1000 YES shares in every option for a non-sweep (at an effective price of 60c per share).
Apsalar
3 months ago
can long-term no holders please sell their shares here (currently for 64) and then buy them back here https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-swing-states-will-trump-win?tid=1730090459791 (can currently buy it back for 60 by buying an equal amount of NO for 0 and 7 and the converting shares). thanks ❤️
Apsalar
3 months ago
can long-term no holders please sell their shares here (currently for 64) and then buy them back here https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-swing-states-will-trump-win?tid=1730090459791 (can currently buy it back for 60 by buying an equal amount of NO for 0 and 7 and the converting shares). thanks ❤️
Apsalar
3 months ago
sell your NO shares here and buy them back for cheaper in that market genius
SafeBets
3 months ago
The exact same outcome is being traded at 36-37 at the How Many Swing States market
Apsalar
3 months ago
no i don't think either candidate will get 100% of the vote
Okman12
3 months ago
The most polarized time in history and you guys think people will votes unanimously?
Apsalar
3 months ago
you'll find out soon enough
spilledjuice
3 months ago
first bet but this seems like taking candy from a baby, why is NO so cheap🤨🤨
Apsalar
3 months ago
these odds make perfect sense as long as you believe kamala has a negative percent chance of sweeping
Apsalar
3 months ago
the lookism is insane
Apsalar
3 months ago
can you teach me oh wise one
AKAxyz
3 months ago
some people don't know how to price binary options and it shows
Apsalar
4 months ago
it's always nice when they let the make-a-wish kid play at the end
Apsalar
4 months ago
there's always another flip
Apsalar
4 months ago
maybe just have aaron rodgers throw a hail mary instead of kicking a field goal next time
Apsalar
4 months ago
why do you want me to curse your home team?
BoeJiden420
4 months ago
You better put money on the lions. They are my home team and are a wrecking ball. I left you a comment the day before when you bet on the COWGIRLS!😡😡😡
Apsalar
4 months ago
Bad luck to everyone who's rooting for the Bills!
Apsalar
4 months ago
if polymarket is going to keep making dumb clarifications they could at leas the consistent about them
Apsalar
4 months ago
everybody say thank you to decap for making the brackets interesting this week
Apsalar
4 months ago
incredible how every single claim you made is wrong
bmili
4 months ago
This is easy money for McCormick. Senate ticket splitting isn’t a thing and trump has a moderate lead
Apsalar
4 months ago
Tim Pool be like: this isn't a true negrisk market because they could all resolve to NO
Apsalar
4 months ago
we've reached levels of delusion that were never thought possible
Apsalar
4 months ago
New.Jeans and fhantombets as the top holders for NO... good luck, babe!
Apsalar
4 months ago
liberal Tim Pool be like: there is a high probability that every one of these brackets resolves to NO
Apsalar
4 months ago
who put up a 100k share limit order. chill
Apsalar
4 months ago
"what counts as a backflip" - the greatest evidence rationale thread in the history of uma, locked by Mide after 12,239 pages of heated debate,
Apsalar
4 months ago
ohhhhhh
XiJinPing
4 months ago
he only needs to be 25% as good
Apsalar
4 months ago
i know next to nothing about ishowspeed, but what are the odds that a popular youtuber happens to be one of the greatest backflippers of all time.
Apsalar
4 months ago
can't believe my strategy of copy trading people who seem like insiders failed me
Apsalar
4 months ago
Walz can still win if Didier Truchot has the courage.
Apsalar
4 months ago
The Lebanese people are singing in the streets now that it has been confirmed that they weren't invaded last month.
Apsalar
4 months ago
smart man
Remontada
4 months ago
Ipsos have released a post debate poll for every single debate going back to the year 2000. Just want to lay that out.
Apsalar
4 months ago
if you think it's possible for him to tie in the poll, then you have to think it's possible for him to win the poll, or you just don't know how polling/probability works.
BenCM
4 months ago
Walz will not win but he might draw in which case it's 50/50. That's the value proposition for buying Walz right now. And it's not silly at 30 cents, it probably is at 40 cents.
Apsalar
4 months ago
as a great man once, I'm just here clicking buttons and having fun!
BoeJiden420
4 months ago
Im always so intrigued with your profile. So much money bet. So diverse. Its hard to believe that you are so active. Moving small and large amounts of money. I mean at first i thought you didnt feel after you put 20k on a lions game or something. Make sure you write a book or something. Id read it.
Apsalar
4 months ago
Buying Walz solely because many of the people buying Vance seem to be doing so for very dumb reasons
Apsalar
4 months ago
I do not think that CNN is the most liberal news network in the world
n/a
4 months ago
CNN, the most liberal news network in the world is bashing Walz and siding with Vance.
Apsalar
4 months ago
who among us isn't friends with a school shooter
Apsalar
4 months ago
so true! because even if he doesn't say teacher, uma can decide that he *meant* to say teacher!
flamingfish
4 months ago
Teacher is free.... BINK
Apsalar
4 months ago
dispute it cowards
Apsalar
4 months ago
is this fucker purposefully avoiding the word "border"
Apsalar
4 months ago
Abdul gonna outmention border
Apsalar
4 months ago
rsbn is always 2 dumb bitches telling each other “exactlyyyyy”
Apsalar
4 months ago
polymarket is trying to save you money
ANONYMOUS.
4 months ago
Why didn't my new shares show up in my position after I bought more no?
Apsalar
4 months ago
axios is also always right. hence the paradox.
05brownboy
4 months ago
yatsen is always right
Apsalar
4 months ago
imagine betting against YatSen. shouldn't be me
Apsalar
4 months ago
you have turned this into something of a paradox
YatSen
4 months ago
free money, but not much liquidity.
Apsalar
4 months ago
imagine betting against Axios. couldn't be me
Apsalar
4 months ago
holy shit it's the time traveler himself! it's so over for YES bros
Axios
4 months ago
Hey guys, check this out. "On chain" transactions from 100 DAYS AGO. Why didn't this resolve earlier? Because it wasn't live for trading or swapping. Or unlocked. https://etherscan.io/txs?a=0xec53bf9167f50cdeb3ae105f56099aaab9061f83&p=2000
Apsalar
4 months ago
i believe "on-chain stuff" occuring happened in a previous market and in that case it was ignored which would seem to set precedent for NO. does anyone know which market i'm thinking about (maybe i'm misremembering)
Apsalar
4 months ago
Whew
Apsalar
4 months ago
feels nice to be on same side as the person who knows better than vegas!
botbot
4 months ago
the Bils are such easy money on this I almost feel bad taking it
Apsalar
4 months ago
even if "they" do call it an invasion, it not meeting the rule's definition would in face be an issue
Justifax
4 months ago
Not to rain on anyone's party, but if they greenlit the invasion it could start tomorrow. They are all calling it invasion, so that part won't be an issue.
Apsalar
4 months ago
No
SafeBets
4 months ago
Can we say that this market is the equivalent of "What will be the chance of the leading candidate in Silver's model just before the election"?
Apsalar
4 months ago
then why the fuck aren't you selling your shares
FamilyCapital
4 months ago
I think there is a real chance that they gonna start it in the next 24 hours. There were too many incidents made by Israel, to not act after them. I'm NO holder with 80c per shares, even so, I believe the probability is like 30 to 70.
Apsalar
4 months ago
representatives only count if they are the one to release an “official announcement” by the campaign.
Apsalar
4 months ago
something someone other than Kamala says in an interview is not an official campaign announcement
Apsalar
4 months ago
something someone other than Kamala says in an interview is not an official campaign announcement
mr.ozi
4 months ago
https://x.com/AugustinBrian3/status/1838759155685019649 The co-chair of her campaign publicly says that it's part of campaign's proposals to have the tax on unrealized capital gains. This is pretty official to me, and the rules allow for statements from her representatives.
Apsalar
4 months ago
they even kept their ambiguous rules!
Apsalar
4 months ago
aw shit here we go again
Apsalar
4 months ago
the nothing ever happens squad has a great record on this stuff
Apsalar
4 months ago
fuck it. copy trading JustKen
Apsalar
4 months ago
neither yatsen nor newjeans have positions in this market so not sure who you're talking about
Car
4 months ago
that means you are also fading 50pence. how can you fade the best trader on the world?!
Apsalar
4 months ago
fuck it. fading car
Apsalar
4 months ago
sounds like you have found a good arbitrage oppurtunity! You should buy this up and buy Georgia down until their prices meet!
TrumpFlipsNY2
4 months ago
if kamala wins Georgia shes wins the rest easily cause Georgia is the most right leaning swing state, so basically whatever the odds for Georgia is thats the odds she wins all the swing states.
Apsalar
4 months ago
one of the least popular senators in America!
icecoldeddie
4 months ago
This race could get very interesting these next few weeks. People in and around Omaha absolutely dispise Fischer.
Apsalar
4 months ago
or not
Apsalar
4 months ago
oh we be feasting on reese's pieces tonight!
Apsalar
4 months ago
oh we be feasting on reese's pieces tonight!
Apsalar
4 months ago
damn i guess i was thinking too small lol
mr.ozi
4 months ago
He said it 60x on Aug 22 during a speech in Arizona on border security.
Apsalar
4 months ago
I would max "Other GOP" in that case
minji
4 months ago
If he says trans this time, max Haley R-Nom because not even secret service is stopping me
Apsalar
4 months ago
there's a part of me that truly believes that if we made a border 50+ bracket for a rally, Trump would still find a way to hit it
Apsalar
4 months ago
cope
Shinaj2024
4 months ago
Republicans will win all chambers of congress. Harris’s vibes campaign is coming to a halt.
Apsalar
4 months ago
first time?
Sit
4 months ago
why is the "Trans" market like that lmao?
Apsalar
4 months ago
shut the fuck up shut the fuck up shut the fuck up
Apsalar
4 months ago
happy now?
timanfayagambler
4 months ago
RRD is underpriced
Apsalar
4 months ago
fuck
Apsalar
4 months ago
did trans bros get too cocky?
Apsalar
4 months ago
death, taxes, and border border border border border border border border border border border border border border border border border border border border border border border border border
Apsalar
4 months ago
couch!
Apsalar
4 months ago
you tell me
J.D.K
4 months ago
Why not bet on border 15+ its free money hehe
Apsalar
4 months ago
bet against whatever the rsbn bozos think he will say
Apsalar
4 months ago
how are ny dems this bad lol
Apsalar
4 months ago
ginger supremacy
semi
4 months ago
ah but at least you're a fellow panthers chad
Apsalar
4 months ago
well you win some and you lose some. and then lose some more. and then lose some more. and then lose some more. and then
Apsalar
4 months ago
kamalover
Apsalar
4 months ago
donate your brain for science
MeNoDatNutReelMuni
4 months ago
What about 98.4? Annualized that’s a pretty good return
Apsalar
4 months ago
i would love to get into the mind of the people buying thousands of shares at 99.3 cents
Apsalar
4 months ago
unfortunately i am no longer a NO holder but i'll take the W
Gena🐊
4 months ago
Clarification is for NO, congrats Apsalar and NO holders
Apsalar
4 months ago
a couple days. once the process starts there is a 24 hour period where people vote followed by another 24 hour period where people reveal their votes
EdgyUsername
4 months ago
How long do disputes usually take to resolve?
Apsalar
4 months ago
yeah
Gena🐊
4 months ago
Nice, you did that?
Apsalar
4 months ago
STOP THE STEAL
Apsalar
4 months ago
not on my watch!
Gena🐊
4 months ago
LOL he is gonna steal it, gg
Apsalar
4 months ago
there is no need to cover whatever is not listed bc this market isn't negrisk
Donkov
4 months ago
We need "Other"
Apsalar
4 months ago
this market isn't negrisk
Donkov
4 months ago
We need "Other"
Apsalar
4 months ago
Martin Luther King Jr on steroids
Apsalar
4 months ago
oh yeah he's definitely fucking loomer
Apsalar
4 months ago
weak brackets imo. should have more nyc related ones
Apsalar
4 months ago
when you order Big Gretch on wish.com
Apsalar
4 months ago
"what is the biggest threat to me staying employed at ford?" "iran dropping a nuke on your factory"
Apsalar
4 months ago
when does the town hall start?
Apsalar
4 months ago
hollup that's not Big Gretch
Apsalar
4 months ago
do with this information as you will https://x.com/Nero/status/1835044440014037292
Apsalar
4 months ago
read the rules, people! read the rules!
Apsalar
4 months ago
ELON!
Apsalar
4 months ago
this interviewer fucking sucks
Apsalar
5 months ago
if you can't imagine it happening then why are you holding YES in everything else, and why not buy more NO?
Car
5 months ago
Bought NO incase this gets cancelled. Cant imagine he wants to talk to some retards about crypto after his 2nd assassination attempt
Apsalar
5 months ago
Juno Temple was snubbed!
Apsalar
5 months ago
bruh did not just compare his ghostwriter's book to the presidential medal of freedom
Apsalar
5 months ago
bro keeping mention count himself at kamala rallies 🤣
Apsalar
5 months ago
no
BedardiRaja
5 months ago
would this still count if they do one despite him not showing up, like ossoff next to an empty podium back in 2020?
Apsalar
5 months ago
i'm still mad about last week igami
Apsalar
5 months ago
You either die a hero or live long enough to see yourself become the villain...
Apsalar
5 months ago
my only worry is that escelate is only pretending to be dumb so he can get more cheap fraud shares before revealing when Trump actually said it.
Apsalar
5 months ago
don't let border border border distract you from the fact that that's an f-tier nickname
Apsalar
5 months ago
border bros are EATING
Apsalar
5 months ago
does he not know the word "moderator"?? what the fuck
Apsalar
5 months ago
you played me very well indeed
TheGuru
5 months ago
Well played sir
Apsalar
5 months ago
this one was more fun than the last one! see everyone next week!
Apsalar
5 months ago
my sources are telling me "too early to call". would have preferred a "too close to call", but i'll take it.
Apsalar
5 months ago
hqhhahhahhaa
Apsalar
5 months ago
i'm doing my part!
Apsalar
5 months ago
good advice
Republican
5 months ago
If top holders of Kamala were smart they would sell of their position now, switch to Trump, then dump their Kamala Yes / Trump No on the main market
Apsalar
5 months ago
not fud. there's just way too much time left for market to be this confident.
Remontada
5 months ago
FUD
Apsalar
5 months ago
kamala seems way overvalued now tbh. time to switch sides.
Apsalar
5 months ago
omg i held trump above kamala for a full minute i feel so powerful
Apsalar
5 months ago
bad guess
Rainiak
5 months ago
about 15-3 if I had to guess
Apsalar
5 months ago
free money is a banned term in this house
TooDumbToWin
5 months ago
Yes continue buying kamala, free money
Apsalar
5 months ago
this isn't a sprint. it's a marathon.
Apsalar
5 months ago
go for it lol
JohnFrumAmerica
5 months ago
You could literally just arbitrage this with predictit and push kamala up risk free
Apsalar
5 months ago
ez money
Apsalar
5 months ago
if your nuke couldn't even bring her down a decimal point, you may be in trouble
Remontada
5 months ago
Nuke
Apsalar
5 months ago
what are these brackets? dumfuq decap moment?
Apsalar
5 months ago
I think I've seen this film before and I didn't like the ending
Apsalar
5 months ago
That in two hours Tim Walz is going to drop out and be replaced by Josh Shaprio, sealing Pennsylvania and thus the elction.
Caligulas.dog
5 months ago
What does @Wanyewest69 know that others don't? He's been constantly upping his position
Apsalar
5 months ago
I know. That's why I used it as an example of a good clarification, in contrast with the second clarification.
BlackSky123
5 months ago
They literally already clarified that illegals would not count before this clarification...
Apsalar
5 months ago
The new clarification is the worst kind of clarification because it's not a clarification at all. I have no clue what people think the slur was, but if there was a specific word in contention (such as illegals), then it would at least make sense to clarify whether the rules include that word. Instead they're just telling us how the market should resolve.
Apsalar
5 months ago
owned their asses
SWIFTTT
5 months ago
every swiftie knows that she will 100% endorse kamala lol, just like she endorsed Biden. this is free money from delusional republicans lol
Apsalar
5 months ago
he said aaron rodgers is super cool and handsome!
infinitiphantom
5 months ago
What he say
Apsalar
5 months ago
my heart's racing at a million miles an hour until i get rid of the majority of thse shares lol
BoeJiden420
5 months ago
YOOOO you again! You really do piss money XD does your heart even race im generally interested?
Apsalar
5 months ago
wtf i love joe rogan now
Apsalar
5 months ago
they were nice for buying
Foolish
5 months ago
These odds suck now that McCaffrey is out.
Apsalar
5 months ago
tell me about it!
Foolish
5 months ago
These odds suck now that McCaffrey is out.
Apsalar
5 months ago
indeed... a small price to pay!
nook
5 months ago
You're the reason Alireza lost, Asspiler
Apsalar
5 months ago
him being out three games would not be sufficient for a YES resolution
schottchris
5 months ago
he will be out 3 games at least i reckon. good enough for this to hit YES
Apsalar
5 months ago
fun game! or so i am told
Apsalar
5 months ago
not looking bad!
Apsalar
5 months ago
i don't make that money betting on sports i can tell you that much
BoeJiden420
5 months ago
You tell me you make 72k per month i quit my job and i work for you
Apsalar
5 months ago
not looking good!
Apsalar
5 months ago
not gonna happenigami
Apsalar
5 months ago
i think you should read the rules again
schottchris
5 months ago
he will be out 3 games at least i reckon. good enough for this to hit YES
Apsalar
5 months ago
is that what we're going to pretend is happening?
TimeTraveler
5 months ago
Someone is definitely not spoofing up the order books to offload their bags.
Apsalar
5 months ago
say it a third time. i dare you.
Apsalar
5 months ago
i've seen your elo rating! you'll embarrass me
41-17™askDomerWhatImean
5 months ago
Play me on lichess asspiler
Apsalar
5 months ago
a disappointing performance by the Great GM Hikaru
Apsalar
5 months ago
can't even complain. worth the price of admission.
Rueben
5 months ago
Are you not entertained?
Apsalar
5 months ago
i have seen her once
Republican
5 months ago
0 i think
Apsalar
5 months ago
anyone know how many times taylor has been shown so far?
Apsalar
5 months ago
discord or twitter work for me
Foreseeable.
5 months ago
Any way to add you? not expaining statistics in the comments 🥲😁
Apsalar
5 months ago
what's the correct calculation in your opinion? (i don't think there's an objective answer)
Foreseeable.
5 months ago
Could you stop being a smartass and let the math nerds get their money? (Your calculation is false, btw 🧮)
Apsalar
5 months ago
where's the leak?
jumbojim
5 months ago
Leak says its Saturday... she just did an Interview with a comedian. This markets a joke...
Apsalar
5 months ago
you tell em!
TheGuru
5 months ago
It doesn't matter where Kamala is today, just on Friday
Apsalar
5 months ago
DonaldGloverwalkingintoaroomonfirewithpizza.gif
Apsalar
5 months ago
i love pre recorded markets
Apsalar
5 months ago
I almost feel bad for Sam Brown.
Apsalar
5 months ago
if only Jen could say the same 💔
figman
5 months ago
I REGRET NOTHING
Apsalar
5 months ago
no. fear is a maga tactic. i'm not trying to scare Trump holders into selling. I'm trying to inspire Kamala people to buy!
HaterzLoserz
5 months ago
trying to scare people away lol
Apsalar
5 months ago
i do not think buying Kamala shares for 47 cents is a cost. I think it's a bargain.
PolyPollUser
5 months ago
Manipulating the price for a minute is one thing. But manipulating it for 3 prespecified hours is an entirely different ball game. You have to keep on buying Kamala shares. That will cost miles above any profit anyone can make here.
Apsalar
5 months ago
I'm not saying that I'd be able to bring her shares up myself, but I'll certainly be lending a hand.
Apsalar
5 months ago
"it's not worth it for anyone to buy up Kamala Pres shares just to win this market" assumes that Kamala is being fairly valued right now. If you think Kamala is actually the favorite, buying her here and there just kills two birds with one stone.
Apsalar
5 months ago
"it's not worth it for anyone to buy up Kamala Pres shares just to win this market" assumes that Kamala is being fairly valued right now. If you think Kamala is actually the favorite, buying her here and there just kills two birds with one stone.
Apsalar
5 months ago
samesies!
CUTNPASTE
5 months ago
Can't wait to see this one get manipulated!
Apsalar
5 months ago
another day. another polyscam clarification.
Apsalar
5 months ago
I have information that will lead to the arrest of @truthteller
Apsalar
5 months ago
Hell Yeah brother, cheers from Iraq
Pidor🐓
5 months ago
brazil IP still posting on twitter just fine 😎
Apsalar
5 months ago
fact that other NO buyers don't understand the concept of a time zone is making me a bit more nervous about my position lol
Apsalar
5 months ago
i know
Slaylorswift
5 months ago
lol you’re cooked
Apsalar
5 months ago
time did not pass
n/a
5 months ago
No ban for x and time pass i wonder why do not close the market
Apsalar
5 months ago
as someone who lost quite a bit of money betting on NO, I can promise you that I wasn't trying to gaslight you. I listened to the clip and felt like you guys were trying to gaslight me because I did not hear "teacher" at all, but we should just accept that we heard it differently and I have to accept that my version is in the minority.
Apsalar
5 months ago
no comment
WindWalk2
5 months ago
If it does get disputed, how long will it take to fully resolve?
Apsalar
5 months ago
this is polymarket's black and blue dress. i'm starting to worry that i might be one of those white and gold morons
Apsalar
5 months ago
2 days ish
WindWalk2
5 months ago
If it does get disputed, how long will it take to fully resolve?
Apsalar
5 months ago
if someone proposes it, trust me it will get disputed. would just propose NO myself, but unfortunately it's a P4 right now
BlackSky123
5 months ago
Dispute it then, fuckwad.
Apsalar
5 months ago
thankfully nobody from the scam squad is on the other side, so we should be safe. he did not say "teacher" and no amount of gaslighting can change that fact.
Anon5215
5 months ago
He skipped over the entire word. Nobody got it from the live interview which is the resolution source. Another scam is about to go down
Apsalar
5 months ago
don't believe your lying ears! this is orwellian!
Apsalar
5 months ago
video is clear. he did not articulate the word "teacher". he meant to say it, but that doesn't matter.
Apsalar
5 months ago
SHES A WITCH
Apsalar
5 months ago
you can never be too meta
0xE42c9d2ef
5 months ago
Can we also get a market for this one or is that too meta?
Apsalar
5 months ago
I don't think it's Dune
Apsalar
5 months ago
this is my new favorite type of market
Apsalar
5 months ago
what would the dispute be? there is going to be a mathematical fact of the matter. and this makes it far more difficult to manipulate
coolguy69
5 months ago
I'm staying out of this one just cuz I know it'll go to dispute
Apsalar
5 months ago
why don't you propose it then?
JPVR
5 months ago
Can any one explain what argument anyone would have to dispute de resolution of 1 launch as NO? Would love to hear good arguments
Apsalar
5 months ago
do you have a case other than just saying "it's obvious"
DanVMia
5 months ago
what case does the NO camp have? Seems obvious Trump will improve on black support... YES is a great bet here
Apsalar
5 months ago
thanks for another well thought-out reply! i think your analysis is pretty solid imo but suggest remaining skeptical of the crosstabs in most cases. very rare for polymarket. those ec market you're invested in is one of the markets i was referring to, but i think there are others as well.
0x63325293geDetgu4g028d8hh9dDegjAsuneg44
5 months ago
I was v curious where you are coming from and appreciate the reply. wrt abortion on the ballot, look, you may be right; although imho if it's to have an impact anywhere it will be most felt in FL because unlike other states that need 50% to pass, FL requires 60%. Consequently on Polymarket "Which states will pass amendments protecting abortion?" FL is only 64% vs 95% in most states. Ie it's really not a done-deal, it's a tight race and that's going to to mean more turnout amongst women who might not otherwise have bothered (as opposed to most states where it's a done deal), and obv are women lean KH this election. Let's say conservatively turnout is 5% more due to women, and they lean 5% KH that's 0.25%; hmm not much, might finally have to look at crosstabs :P Oh wait, here's a pitch: did you see a poll where leans are broken down by age, and in that poll Gen-Z lean 40% KH, and they also have the lowest turnout typically, and probably have the most abortions? Hmm, maybe 1%? hoho. Wrt correlated markets, I'm in ec already, but maybe you have a bigger brain meaning :) anyway thanks again for reply, gl.
Apsalar
5 months ago
you might be the only account on here that I actually trust to have inside info on this... what's the scoop?
0xmaniac
5 months ago
BREAKING: BARRON IS HEADED TO NYU: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQw4w9WgXcQ
Apsalar
5 months ago
I think you are overrating the impact the abortion and weed ballot measures will have. i also think that even if you do think florida is being undervalued here, there are other correlated markets where you can get a better value.
0x63325293geDetgu4g028d8hh9dDegjAsuneg44
5 months ago
I'm not sure how to ping both, so sorry will copy pasta; Trump is only +4 in Florida, and there's abortion and weed on the ballot so KH outperforms polling. How can you believe Harris will win overall, but not have a good chance at Florida? Many swing states are polling within a point of 2020 results, including Florida (my point being Florida's polling +4 Trump is probably what you'd expect rather than freaky outlier stuff). GOP is the obvious winner in Florida, but if you already have a pro-KH view nationally how are you not liking Florida odds at 18%? You already think she'll win 1-2% nationally if you have a pro-KH view (otherwise it's a toss-up with today's polling) and you both have positions in it! And you must admit she's likely to outperform polling with abortion and weed which will help with female and dem turnout. But you think 82% likely that KH won't win 2 extra points to narrowly win FL? You're not one of the ppl conflating presidential and gubernatorial elections are you? I just find it nuts. At 18% you could quintuple your money with a KH buy; or risk shedloads for a 25% ROIC with a GOP buy. Fair play and good luck, I just think there are easier ways to win 25% ROIC!
Apsalar
5 months ago
i think there's a bit more worth knowing
SPECK
5 months ago
trump won in 2016 and still lost NH all you gotta know
Apsalar
5 months ago
please bet on this market instead. i have shares to get rid of. https://polymarket.com/event/rfk-jr-endorses-trump-before-november/rfk-jr-endorses-trump-before-november
Apsalar
5 months ago
This comment section deserves a better class of schizo
Apsalar
5 months ago
yes she will! (but not florida)
YatSen
5 months ago
Harris will win!
Apsalar
5 months ago
it is quite literally impossible for this to resolve NO
Morgan101
5 months ago
As someone who missed the GameStop wave, this feels like my diamond hands moment.
Apsalar
5 months ago
@Yatsen I wanted those!
Apsalar
5 months ago
dispute it coward!
Apsalar
5 months ago
the poly whales and the uma whales are two different groups of people
Borgo
5 months ago
The reason that the vote isnt being revealed is so that the whales have time to get out. You really think they would wait to show vote for 24 hrs if it turned out "yes"? Hell no, they would burn us up.
Apsalar
5 months ago
mr stark i don't feel so good
Apsalar
5 months ago
with pleasure
zeko
5 months ago
im gonna laugh hard at cucks who talk shit with no, but if you win sure you can take my 1$ lmfao
Apsalar
5 months ago
yes. today's games are particularily low volume because there are no liquidity rewards
MOA
5 months ago
When we get to regular season, will there be more volume?
Apsalar
5 months ago
i learn from the worst!
Eridpnc
5 months ago
good strategy apsalar. Decrapp be proud of you
Apsalar
5 months ago
buy titans high. buy saints high. repeat.
Apsalar
5 months ago
Alireza is very lucky the Great GM Hikaru isn't competing
Apsalar
5 months ago
shade never made anybody less gay
Sit
5 months ago
I'm pretty sure she got some shade from supporting Biden, or am I wrong? That was the first time she had shared her political views too. Why would she make that mistake again?
Apsalar
5 months ago
lol
baal
5 months ago
@polymarket @UMA try blindly ripping off people for hundreds of thousands of dollars IRL and watch how fast you end up in a wheelchair. This is a predictions gambling market with RULES
Apsalar
5 months ago
I just want to understand how you think it's possible to know that I'm a "commie voter" based on my predictions of how specific markets will resolve.
baal
5 months ago
@polymarket @UMA try blindly ripping off people for hundreds of thousands of dollars IRL and watch how fast you end up in a wheelchair. This is a predictions gambling market with RULES
Apsalar
5 months ago
I don't think you understand how prediction markets work.
baal
5 months ago
@polymarket @UMA try blindly ripping off people for hundreds of thousands of dollars IRL and watch how fast you end up in a wheelchair. This is a predictions gambling market with RULES
Apsalar
5 months ago
in a bit under 2 hours
cockbrain
5 months ago
wen resolve
Apsalar
5 months ago
Help me Darth Vooncer. You're my only hope.
Apsalar
5 months ago
me and the boys on the way to burn hundreds of thousands of dollars so we can lose a few thousand in this market a day from now instead of today
Apsalar
5 months ago
your heart is in the right place
EmpirePending
5 months ago
Why would they add clarification rather than resolving it? Because they’re not confident themselves
Apsalar
5 months ago
actual scam that ignores precedent. sad!
Apsalar
5 months ago
i was buying YES but have now switched sides. should have read the rules more carefully. the bernie precedent for "formal endorsement" is just too strong. not too late for other YES holders to sell, but soon it will be!
Apsalar
5 months ago
some bot has gone full schizo
Apsalar
5 months ago
genius!
KamalaCurry
5 months ago
Will "Will Kamala flip Trump on Polymarket in August?" go under 50% in August?
Apsalar
5 months ago
me too!
gabrieldyson
5 months ago
I like the "other" option
Apsalar
5 months ago
new type of scam squad bout to drop
Apsalar
5 months ago
around what time is he scheduled to speak?
Apsalar
5 months ago
like half of the time people pronounce his name they say it that way. it does not significantly alter the intended name.
DeucePapi
5 months ago
Walz rhymes with balls. Waltz doesn't rhyme with shit. We bet that Biden would say a name wrong. What am I missing here?
Apsalar
5 months ago
@slewmoney correct
Flipp
5 months ago
This flips to yes if it's disputed
Apsalar
5 months ago
lmao
Flipp
5 months ago
At 17:27 he also mistakes his own name and calls himself "Joey"
Apsalar
5 months ago
you can also just click the dispute button under rules. will need to put up a $750 bond in USDC.e that you won't get back if you lose the dispute
Flipp
5 months ago
This flips to yes if it's disputed
Apsalar
5 months ago
@slewmoney https://oracle.uma.xyz/?project=Polymarket&transactionHash=0xd833100ce0217008d0868d04085c08dcd28d6c6c042078428cf47f2158458151&eventIndex=17
Flipp
5 months ago
This flips to yes if it's disputed
Apsalar
5 months ago
so buy yes and dispute it
Flipp
5 months ago
This flips to yes if it's disputed
Apsalar
6 months ago
some people think that the israel issue is going to have a significant impact on the result in michigan
BigDoh
6 months ago
What’s with the picture
Apsalar
6 months ago
Hello darkness my old friend
Apsalar
6 months ago
thanks to the person who suggested the brackets this week! best ones we've had in a while i reckon
Apsalar
6 months ago
terrible brackets
Apsalar
6 months ago
I WILL NOT SELL
Apsalar
6 months ago
in my defense i only paid $50 for those 50k shares
Donkov
6 months ago
bro.. what did you do?
Apsalar
6 months ago
imagine my sock
Apsalar
6 months ago
Car aka betbetloselose going big on NO shares. interesting
Apsalar
6 months ago
don't thank me. thank perplexity.
Apsalar
6 months ago
Grok AI has not yet banned image generation of Donald Trump. However, AI technology is rapidly evolving, with significant advancements in generative AI tools like OpenAI's ChatGPT and Google Gemini. These tools are transforming how we find answers on the internet, but they also face challenges such as hallucination problems and antitrust scrutiny. Meanwhile, companies like Amazon are rolling out AI shopping assistants, and Meta AI is integrating AI into VR headsets. Despite these developments, there is no current news indicating that Grok AI has banned image generation of Trump.
Apsalar
6 months ago
Google's Pixel 9 series, launched on August 14, 2024, features new AI capabilities including Gemini Live, Pixel Screenshots, and Pixel Studio. This rollout highlights the ongoing advancements in AI technology, which could influence how platforms like Grok manage image generation policies.
PokerBrat
6 months ago
Thanks for the slop bro
Apsalar
6 months ago
Grok AI has not yet banned image generation of Donald Trump. However, AI technology is rapidly evolving, with significant advancements in generative AI tools like OpenAI's ChatGPT and Google Gemini. These tools are transforming how we find answers on the internet, but they also face challenges such as hallucination problems and antitrust scrutiny. Meanwhile, companies like Amazon are rolling out AI shopping assistants, and Meta AI is integrating AI into VR headsets. Despite these developments, there is no current news indicating that Grok AI has banned image generation of Trump.
Apsalar
6 months ago
One of these days Trump WILL say "crypto"! And on that blessed day all the brave souls who keep betting on it will still be down!
Apsalar
6 months ago
Never attribute to alpha that which is adequately explained by stupidity
Fred19999
6 months ago
Why is Apsalar buying up No?
Apsalar
6 months ago
abort! abort!
Apsalar
6 months ago
the livestreams for both launches have the altitude visible on the screen
VibesGreaterRules
6 months ago
If anyone has a link to flight heights - please link!
Apsalar
6 months ago
i'm in the same boat. too scared to propose but quite confident that a proposal would pass.
VibesGreaterRules
6 months ago
There were two launches this year (2024) so far, but I'm not sure if both reached the 62 miles height. I'm like 98% sure...
Apsalar
6 months ago
wow this ended up being way more interesting than expected
Apsalar
6 months ago
tempting
X9504
6 months ago
They're selling dollars for 0.1 cents
Apsalar
6 months ago
Will Stancil write-in campaign gonna come in with a steel chair
Apsalar
6 months ago
thank pimp stancil
Apsalar
6 months ago
hotttt
n/a
6 months ago
Trump posting every 30 minutes on Truth Social. So far only 1 pinned interview tweet on Twitter.
Apsalar
6 months ago
i sure hope that isn't barron lol
EdgyUsername
6 months ago
What seemed to be a simple trade is actually far more complex and nerve wracking than I imagined. Not sure why I expected otherwise. lol
Apsalar
6 months ago
are you that guy?
WhoIsMakingTheseMarkets
6 months ago
NGMI
Apsalar
6 months ago
just woke up from a long nap... what happened?
Apsalar
6 months ago
bro will not stop yapping
Apsalar
6 months ago
lol him calling kamala hot made it all worth it
Apsalar
6 months ago
i can excuse the fascism but i draw the line at being this boring
Apsalar
6 months ago
oh shit oh fuck
X9504
6 months ago
BRB gotta send some tweets
Apsalar
6 months ago
bet against me coward
X9504
6 months ago
You are toast bro
Apsalar
6 months ago
STOP THE COUNT!
Apsalar
6 months ago
MOBAMA
Whome
6 months ago
Holy crap. There are some truly insane people on this planet.
Apsalar
6 months ago
@JeffBezos why are you selling?
Apsalar
6 months ago
ask and you shall receive
l987
6 months ago
we need a 'will Taylor swift be at the DNC' market
Apsalar
6 months ago
In speed chess the Great GM Hikaru is UNMATCHED!
Apsalar
6 months ago
Will Stancil killed my neighbor. My neighbor was a Nazi. I'm Will Stancil and I approve this message.
Apsalar
6 months ago
Sorry I don't have an opinion on this market. Aenews hasn't taken up a large position yet.
Apsalar
6 months ago
You're buying YES because you decoded and reverse engineered NASA's model and then plugged in the entirely of this months' data. I'm buying YES because I trust aenews to do that for me. We are not the same.
Apsalar
6 months ago
a bit too much of an overcorrection methinks
Apsalar
6 months ago
LIONS LIONS LIONS
Apsalar
6 months ago
if anyone disputes now i will be very disappointed. don't waste your money!
Apsalar
6 months ago
how sure are we that 1 can be proposed?
Apsalar
6 months ago
I don't know what time make of this market, but I see that NO is offering me a higher return on investment so I will join that team.
Apsalar
6 months ago
she is whatever will make her the most money. love her for it.
Pietrop11599
6 months ago
Isnt she a Republican?
Apsalar
6 months ago
oops
oxamo
6 months ago
There's a typo "Harris by 0.1-0.5" should be "Harris by 0.1-0.4"
Apsalar
6 months ago
hi
Erty
6 months ago
Hi
Apsalar
6 months ago
you cooked. congrats.
Laura
6 months ago
Shoutout to the yes buyers who have just joined the party 🫡
Apsalar
6 months ago
and we love him for that
🤺JustPunched
6 months ago
Maduro is the true OG scam squad.
Apsalar
6 months ago
scam squad might just pull this off
Apsalar
6 months ago
ITS A WALZ STORY BABY JUST SAY YES!!!!
HamasDidNothingWrong
6 months ago
you learned the wrong lesson from me if you're singing these songs nobody ever heard of. I was singing Taylor Swift.
Apsalar
6 months ago
Now in Minnesota there's ten pretty women / There's a shoulder where Death comes to cry / There's a lobby with nine hundred windows / There's a tree where the doves go to die / There's a piece that was torn from the morning / And it hangs in the Gallery of Frost / Ay, Ay, Ay, Ay / Take Tim Walz, take Tim Walz / Take his broken waist in your hand
Apsalar
6 months ago
mama mia
Apsalar
6 months ago
oh you were being sarcastic. does that mean it actually is over?
BM5II5KJN2
6 months ago
Nice cope
Apsalar
6 months ago
nice