Which coalition will form the next German government?

Rayse

1 month ago

The exit polls show them extremely close to the 5% hurdle. We won't know if they are in parliament until the final results

0

I.Like.MommyTulsi

1 month ago

FDP is going to be zero seats lmao why is CDU/CSU, SPD, & FDP rising and CDU/CSU & SPD falling

Which coalition will form the next German government?

Rayse

1 month ago

Bye Bye 2 party holders

0

Which coalition will form the next German government?

Rayse

1 month ago

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. What matters is what happened most recently. The FDP clearly demonstrated themselves to be willing to sink a government if they don't get everything they want. The CDU isn't going to want to work with such unreasonable people especially if they barely get 5%

0

Rayse

1 month ago

Only really two realistic options imo. CDU +SPD or CDU +SPD+ Greens. They aren't going to work with the FDP even if they somehow make it into parliament, the party is too hard to work with for someone who wants to do things like increase military spending. The other party combos are just non starters.

Which coalition will form the next German government?

Rayse

1 month ago

Only really two realistic options imo. CDU +SPD or CDU +SPD+ Greens. They aren't going to work with the FDP even if they somehow make it into parliament, the party is too hard to work with for someone who wants to do things like increase military spending. The other party combos are just non starters.

5

How many men will Lily Phillips have sex with in one day?

Rayse

4 months ago

God I can already see the dispute chaos. Watch her do oral for a few of them and people arguing over whether it will count.

4

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Rayse

4 months ago

The real question is, will Tulsi even be interested in the job now that her lover Assad has exited the world stage?

2

Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden?

Rayse

4 months ago

lmao true

0

MagaProfitCharlie8

4 months ago

If you want to make money on polymarket there are 2 rules. 1) NEVER EVER bet against Donald J Trump. 2) Always bet against Erasmus. Some whales just hate money.

Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden?

Rayse

4 months ago

As far as political lies go this barely would even register. Not only that but its literally his son, like who wouldn't understand?

0

OrangutanMan

4 months ago

biden has said publically that he will not pardon his son. his election loss changes nohing.

Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden?

Rayse

4 months ago

I do think Joe Biden generally has a ton of integrity, but at the end of the day its his son and he honestly has very little reason not to pardon him. Trump has won anyways and Biden is on his way out of politics. Maybe if Kamala won there would be a political reason not to pardon him.

0

Pennsylvania Senate Election Winner

Rayse

5 months ago

What Republicans don't understand is that the mules and I are working overtime to steal this thing

3

Which party wins Presidency + Popular Vote?

Rayse

5 months ago

Honestly I think D presidency is more likely than D popular vote rn

0

JewishGodFatherOfPennies

5 months ago

gonna take a depression nap better wake up to rd at a dollar or im becoming a full time racist

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

Rayse

5 months ago

Why is Osborn crashing? I see no new info from yesterday.

0

Balance of Power: 2024 Election

Rayse

5 months ago

Come on man don't give up the secret

1

Raerr

5 months ago

Other

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

Rayse

5 months ago

Damn I guess we are only getting two independent polls on this race. A lot of potential for variance imo.

0

Balance of Power: 2024 Election

Rayse

5 months ago

If Harris wins, probably a month after the election lol. If Trump wins, probably soon after it is called

1

Abc00

5 months ago

When does trading stop?

Balance of Power: 2024 Election

Rayse

5 months ago

Shhhh don't talk about it man, I'm trying to get another fill at 0.1 cents

1

Gracchus

5 months ago

Other = razor thin congress, fractured parties, no speaker elected

Will Trump win Florida by 8+ points?

Rayse

5 months ago

I mean it probably doesn't but these odds are still way too bullish for Trump. At the very least the favorite should be No here

2

badatthis

5 months ago

Iowa poll affects Florida. Yeah makes totally sense.

Will Trump win Florida by 8+ points?

Rayse

5 months ago

I just hope this gets to 99.9 quickly on election night

1

Favorite to win on Polymarket day before election?

Rayse

5 months ago

Yeah, I got burned a little by not doing that sooner on the Rogan market. I learned my lesson, don't get greedy

1

Rayse

5 months ago

damn you guys were fast

Favorite to win on Polymarket day before election?

Rayse

5 months ago

damn you guys were fast

0

Favorite to win on Polymarket day before election?

Rayse

5 months ago

yeah and a few people do have millions on Trump rn. If they sold their shares, others would follow.

0

Rayse

5 months ago

All it takes is one or two people on the main market doing the funniest thing

Favorite to win on Polymarket day before election?

Rayse

5 months ago

All it takes is one or two people on the main market doing the funniest thing

0

Favorite to win on Polymarket day before election?

Rayse

5 months ago

Freddi is going to do the funny

0

Balance of Power: 2024 Election

Rayse

5 months ago

I see someone else has seen the light. I'm ready for my 500x return

2

rmin

5 months ago

Dan Osborn will bring us glory

Favorite to win on Polymarket day before election?

Rayse

5 months ago

Are you still sure about that? XD

0

Vulture

5 months ago

Supremely confident Fredi9999 and his sock puppets will hold the line until election day.

Favorite to win on Polymarket day before election?

Rayse

5 months ago

Its time Camel bros

2

Favorite to win on Polymarket day before election?

Rayse

5 months ago

As foretold in the prophecies. A flip is coming.

3

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

Rayse

5 months ago

The price has fallen way faster than what you'd expect from only time decay, yet no new information has come out. I'm still holding.

0

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

Rayse

5 months ago

According to who?? The insiders are barely getting up rn, in a couple of hours just watch, they will buy more cheap yes shares

0

JonSand

5 months ago

Turns out the "insiders" were just degenerates. I'm shocked! Who would've thunk!

Will Kamala Harris win all 6 swing states?

Rayse

5 months ago

I mean, its literally what Biden won in 2020. Its not farfetched to think Trump may lose these states again.

2

NewPAVoter

6 months ago

Trump would have to disappear or commit and "actual" crime for this poll win. Although, as we learned, Trump is physically indestructible, so that reduces the odds from %0.5 to %0.1.

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

Rayse

5 months ago

Nope its Osbober

1

Davide0440

5 months ago

it's osbover

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

Rayse

5 months ago

hmm the top insider bought more shares, it just happens to be the same time when the east coast wakes up

3

Favorite to win on Polymarket day before election?

Rayse

5 months ago

Couldn't he have another account?

1

Garnish1

5 months ago

This could be a serious freddi meta play or something. Massive sell right before the election with a million dollar dump of Trump to induce panic and cash out a 600% return on the meta market. Would be cool except we would see his money source here. It's not happening

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

Rayse

5 months ago

Yeah you are right 95% chance she goes on.

0

shuv316

5 months ago

In the first two minutes, Rogan talks about this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t5_EdPRLHuE

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

Rayse

5 months ago

Stop the cope, the insiders have spoken. She is going on most likely

0

hzbz

5 months ago

YES holders are coping hard. Even if she decided right this moment to do it, realistically there is not time left.

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

Rayse

5 months ago

Yeah keeps happening to me, do you have ad block on by chance?

0

Will143

5 months ago

Hmm any long comments fail to post.

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

Rayse

5 months ago

GG the insiders are on the Yes side

0

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

Rayse

5 months ago

If you can't see the fish. You're the fish

5

MikhaRlin

5 months ago

Why 20%?

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

Rayse

5 months ago

Hold the line JRE X Kamala truthers.

1

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

Rayse

5 months ago

What we know is that it makes a ton of sense from multiple angles that she would do the interview. What other way could she possibly reach as many people? The Rogan tweet just confirms that it is still being considered. Its just an obviously good political move with little possibility of a downside.

0

Will143

5 months ago

feel like some1 knows something besides the worthless rogan tweet

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

Rayse

5 months ago

Sorry that was me whispering in your ear. But don't worry, I can see the future

2

Sadio

5 months ago

THE DEVIL SPOKE TO ME TONIGHT: SHE SAID SHE IS GOING ON THE PODCAST

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

Rayse

5 months ago

Greater than 50/50 odds at this point.

2

Will Trump win Florida by 8+ points?

Rayse

5 months ago

Lmao me getting 2:1 odds on this is basically highway robbery. Yall really think Trump is doing more than 4 points better than he did in 2020?? Not to mention that he is consistently polling below this margin. 50/50 odds is already generous tbh

3

# of Republican Senate seats after Election?

Rayse

5 months ago

Came in before the market adjusted to Osborn

2

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

Rayse

5 months ago

Rumor* lol

0

Rayse

5 months ago

This is a market where it will hover around this price/slowly decline and then immediately spike to 99% once we hear about if she decides to get on the podcast. Though I guess there could always be weird roomers that randomly happen

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

Rayse

5 months ago

This is a market where it will hover around this price/slowly decline and then immediately spike to 99% once we hear about if she decides to get on the podcast. Though I guess there could always be weird roomers that randomly happen

1

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

Rayse

5 months ago

From my perspective I'd say 50% chance her campaign decides it would be a good idea, and given that, 50% chance it actually pans out and works with the schedule. So my estimate, which doesn't mean much would be at least 25% chance

0

Trexxx

5 months ago

There is about 35 % chance this will happen. This is a risky but undervalued bet

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

Rayse

5 months ago

Rogan is a really favorable interviewer he doesn't challenge his guests that much unless they start saying really crazy stuff. It would definitely be a much easier interview than previous ones she has done like on Fox News. The only concern is just how long it may be.

0

Rayse

5 months ago

I think this is underrated by a lot. There is still enough time before the election for this to happen. Harris' campaign didn't outright refuse, and Joe Rogan left the door open. I could very well see Kamala deciding to do it after seeing how much exposure Trump got out of it. The more I think of it, the more obvious of a good move it would be for her to go on his podcast. Her campaign also has a brain, and will likely come to the conclusion that the interview would give her more exposure to young men which she really needs.

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

Rayse

5 months ago

I think this is underrated by a lot. There is still enough time before the election for this to happen. Harris' campaign didn't outright refuse, and Joe Rogan left the door open. I could very well see Kamala deciding to do it after seeing how much exposure Trump got out of it. The more I think of it, the more obvious of a good move it would be for her to go on his podcast. Her campaign also has a brain, and will likely come to the conclusion that the interview would give her more exposure to young men which she really needs.

5

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

Rayse

5 months ago

With NYT's poll within the margin of error, this race really does belong at least at 30% imo. My gut says it really is a 50/50 though.

3

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

Rayse

5 months ago

Finally my prayer has been answered. The race really is a toss up then imo

2

Rayse

5 months ago

I really hope we get a neutral poll before the election. Its crazy that there hasn't been one yet.

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

Rayse

5 months ago

I really hope we get a neutral poll before the election. Its crazy that there hasn't been one yet.

2

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

Rayse

5 months ago

sorry already put my Kelly bet down, I don't want to end up broke in case I'm wrong

2

aenews2

5 months ago

Where are the Osborn believers? I want MOAR Fischer!

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

Rayse

5 months ago

I like your energy. A fellow degenerate indeed

0

Sadio

5 months ago

I AM WINNING THIS SHIT

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

Rayse

5 months ago

I think its a much harder task with Osborn though. They waited too long to campaign against him, and there really is no credible link between him and the Democratic party, other than him running against a Republican..

0

rtels2023

5 months ago

This race reminds me a lot of the 2014 Kansas Senate race. The Republican incumbent and Independent challenger were running neck and neck in the polls, and most showed the independent leading. But in the end, the Republican won by 10 points - less than usual, but not all that close. Of course, the difference between that race and this one is that one had many nonpartisan, high-quality polls, while we still don't have any in Nebraska. Unless and until we get one, I will remain skeptical as to whether the rise of Osborn is real.

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

Rayse

5 months ago

I think Osborn's campaign issue positions are pretty unique though, and Osborn has never been associated with the Democratic party, but Orman did run in a primary in 2008

1

rtels2023

5 months ago

This race reminds me a lot of the 2014 Kansas Senate race. The Republican incumbent and Independent challenger were running neck and neck in the polls, and most showed the independent leading. But in the end, the Republican won by 10 points - less than usual, but not all that close. Of course, the difference between that race and this one is that one had many nonpartisan, high-quality polls, while we still don't have any in Nebraska. Unless and until we get one, I will remain skeptical as to whether the rise of Osborn is real.

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

Rayse

5 months ago

Cook Political Report now has the race at Lean R. Fischer is getting more and more cooked.

1

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

Rayse

6 months ago

I think it is if its basically the same margin that Osbron has in his internal polling. This should be a lock for Republicans, but all the evidence I see points to a close race.

1

Rayse

6 months ago

Fischer released another lack luster internal poll. A plus 7 partisan poll lead is embarrassing. We really need a non partisan poll though.

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

Rayse

6 months ago

Pretty much the same for the last one. The one before that was a long time ago and it was something like +26

0

EdgyUsername

6 months ago

What did her past internal polls say (for comparison's sake)?

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

Rayse

6 months ago

Fischer released another lack luster internal poll. A plus 7 partisan poll lead is embarrassing. We really need a non partisan poll though.

2

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

Rayse

6 months ago

Haha keep buying more shares I want this to get back down to 15 cents so I can buy in again. Fischer is toast.

0

aenews2

6 months ago

This is a lock, free money

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

Rayse

6 months ago

wait why are you holding Democrat yes? 🤡

0

LR1

6 months ago

Nebraskans have a habit of skipping over a question if the candidate doesn't have their party name in them. Osborne's party name is "By petition" lmfao. Don't expect Osbone to shore up the Dem votes, far from it.

What will Trump say during Univision town hall?

Rayse

6 months ago

lmao why would the people in this town hall ask about Elon??

0

Favorite to win on Polymarket day before election?

Rayse

6 months ago

ok what actually is this market, 13%?????

0

Favorite to win on Polymarket day before election?

Rayse

6 months ago

welp you were right, I'm probably gonna sell my shares of this market because I realize now that the MAGA people betting, like in 2020 are not rational people. Kamala is only underrated here if we are dealing with rational actors.

1

Donkov

6 months ago

It will get cheaper, if polls dont improve

Favorite to win on Polymarket day before election?

Rayse

6 months ago

This markets dangerous. These odds are too low for rational people, but remember that the MAGA bettors that are pumping the presidential market are not rational people. It probably makes more sense to just bet in the main market if you think Kamala is underrated.

1

# of Republican Senate seats after Election?

Rayse

6 months ago

Osborn is winning, Yall really underestimating 49. I would gladly take 10 to one odds on this.

2

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

Rayse

6 months ago

Race to the white house now has Osborn at 30% chance. Bet accordingly. https://www.racetothewh.com/senate/24

5

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

Rayse

6 months ago

Buy your 21 cent shares from the fishes before they realize what's happening

4

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

Rayse

6 months ago

Yupp. What makes me think its actually competitive is the fact that Fischer's internal poll was actually quite weak, and the fact she has barely released any of her own makes me think she doesnt want to draw attention to her weak numbers

4

AnEggplant

6 months ago

This is 2:1 for Fischer at best

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

Rayse

6 months ago

I looked at the ballot and there are only two options (and a write in). Idk why they would skip over it, this sounds like cope to me

0

LR1

6 months ago

Nebraskans have a habit of skipping over a question if the candidate doesn't have their party name in them. Osborne's party name is "By petition" lmfao. Don't expect Osbone to shore up the Dem votes, far from it.

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

Rayse

6 months ago

Why cant you bet on it? There is still time

0

Memosin

6 months ago

I wish I was able to bet on this. This is probably the freest money you can get out of the election bets

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

Rayse

6 months ago

Sell your shares before its too late bro

0

LR1

6 months ago

Nebraskans have a habit of skipping over a question if the candidate doesn't have their party name in them. Osborne's party name is "By petition" lmfao. Don't expect Osbone to shore up the Dem votes, far from it.

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

Rayse

6 months ago

Here is the link: https://x.com/NenoNicolosio/status/1846164591237029916

1

Rayse

6 months ago

New poll was released. GG Fischer holders

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

Rayse

6 months ago

New poll was released. GG Fischer holders

4

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

Rayse

6 months ago

Why is it that there is barely any polling on the senate races in red states? I can understand somewhat for Nebraska, but there is also very little for Montana, Florida, and Texas.

2

Balance of Power: 2024 Election

Rayse

6 months ago

For this price it certainly is a good bet.

0

Silamoth

6 months ago

Imagine being fed so much fake news that you think "Dem sweep" is a good bet? Lol

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

Rayse

6 months ago

I watched it and am not very impressed. She is misreading the situation, him being named Osborn isn't the reason he has a chance. It may have given him a boost of name recognition at the start of his campaign, but the campaign has gone long enough and Osborn has enough money by now to define himself to the voters. This isn't the kind of ad that will help Fischer much.

0

LR1

6 months ago

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zk46iiNPxv8 This new Fischer ad is the beginning of the end for Dan Osborne. Took her too long to put this out, but, now that it's out, she's playing this ad very aggressively. Dan Osborne's name recognition is going down the drain

What will Trump say during California rally?

Rayse

6 months ago

Now your talking. True Ev enjoyers get into Trump rallies and act unhinged to win bets ;)

1

alexngn

6 months ago

You could bet heavy and go to his rally and shout crypto. Trump would say crypto back :)))

# of Republican Senate seats after Election?

Rayse

6 months ago

This market hasn't really priced in Nebraska. 49 should be 20% imo

2

Will Kamala Harris win all 6 swing states?

Rayse

6 months ago

Yeah people on here are really underestimating the correlation, but it also isn't a sure thing that she wins Arizona and all the other swing states. Its quite possible one of them is actually redder than the rest.

0

Cetus

7 months ago

If you go by the snake graph, it implies all states are tied together and winning the least likely of the swing states wins you the rest of them. So you have to go by the probability of winning the least likely one. On the snake graph, that's Arizona which is at 46% Harris. So the odds here should be 46%.

Favorite to win on Polymarket day before election?

Rayse

6 months ago

jesus christ my man are you betting your life savings on this? Respect.

1

BuckMySalls

6 months ago

this market is just asking for trouble. i realize i'm up against it now with fredi doing qe on trump shares but all it takes is a week of +2 polls for kamala in the rust belt and she'll be right back up there. they're subbing in obama to start campaigning for her in the fourth quarter. gl maga moonbois

What will Trump say during Colorado rally?

Rayse

6 months ago

Are people counting border in the ad that was aired by Trump during the rally? That isnt going to count

5

What will Trump say during Colorado rally?

Rayse

6 months ago

Why are people lying I guess Ill have to deposit more money for No He said border 29 times

1

What will Trump say during Colorado rally?

Rayse

6 months ago

Border is 29

1

Favorite to win on Polymarket day before election?

Rayse

6 months ago

This is an absurdly cheap Kamala price

6

What will Trump say during Colorado rally?

Rayse

6 months ago

With markets like these I wouldn't be surprised if there were undercover degens going to Trump rallies and being all geared up with crypto signage with a few friends to prompt Trump to say something.

2

Will Kamala Harris win all 6 swing states?

Rayse

6 months ago

What lmao, Biden won all of those in 2020 and we still called them swing states because it was close.

6

ISHOWMEAT

6 months ago

They wouldn’t be “swing states” if she was going to win all of them

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

Rayse

6 months ago

It already is a tossup

3

AnEggplant

6 months ago

This race is one October surprise away from being a tossup

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

Rayse

6 months ago

After moping around because I missed an opportunity to win big when Osborn was at 5%, I've decided that he actually is still underrated. Even the few partisan R polls do not look good for Fischer. This plus the fact I hardly see any polling from the R pollsters tells me that Osborn has a real chance here, probably around 50%. If you look at his stances on issues, I can't see a single one that isn't more popular than Fischer's stances. With this race Nebraskans are basically able to vote for more popular social/ issues like legal weed, unions and abortion without having to vote for a Democrat or compromise on their stances when it comes to immigration and gun rights.

1

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

Rayse

6 months ago

I'm so mad at myself. I though Osborn was underrated when he was at 5 cents and probably would have rated him around the current odds at the time. But I didn't feel like buying much shares. In hindsight I would have been comfortable risking 1k on this bet and selling at this price.

2

# of Republican Senate seats after Election?

Rayse

6 months ago

Yes, and Texas, and Florida. Even if Montana is gone Republicans can lose two other races.

1

scallopdealing

6 months ago

Why is 49 or fewer so high? It should be near 0. What am I missing? This isn't because of Osborn is it?

Florida Presidential Election Winner

Rayse

8 months ago

more than 5 to one odds on Florida is crazy

2

Virginia Presidential Election Winner

Rayse

8 months ago

Dollars on sale for 84 cents!

1