#937
Rank
15
Comments
10
Likes Received
5
Likes Given
Next Chancellor of Germany?
rabs
1 year ago
polymarket gave them to me for being such a good sport
0
AngeloMerte
1 year ago
Hello everyone, I have analyzed the positions of the individual holders and noticed an inconsistency with @raps. In the "TopHolders" and in his profile it says that he holds over 500,000 YES shares for Merz. In his profile these are even shown with an average price of 0.16. However, there are no purchases of this size or at this price in either his profile or in the ActivityLog. Why is it that he is still shown with 500,000+ shares?
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
rabs
1 year ago
It's not my job to correct every misconception that people have. This is one major misconception I wanted to clarify. If people still have wrong numbers after that fact ... good luck to them
1
rabs
1 year ago
OK I've bought enough shares my risk appetite is exceeded, so I'm happy to share my analysis now. Basically the main thing to understand is that the UFL Elect Project numbers are currently tracking 'ballots cast' which is not what this market is about. This market is about 'votes for President', which is what the resolution source (USElectionAtlas) tracks. Something like 0.8% of all ballots cast do not include a vote for President. So if you think the Elect Project numbers are mostly accurate, which I do, you end up getting around 0.992 * 155,800,000 or 154.6M votes, which is funnily enough very close to what I estimate. I think this confusion between 'ballots' and 'votes for President' is the main reason this market has been so mispriced and there's been so much confusion in the comment section. If anyone has mistakenly bought YES on 155-160M based on this misapprehension, it's probably a good idea to sell now before other people realise it too. Happy hunting! :)
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
rabs
1 year ago
lmao
1
rabs
1 year ago
OK I've bought enough shares my risk appetite is exceeded, so I'm happy to share my analysis now. Basically the main thing to understand is that the UFL Elect Project numbers are currently tracking 'ballots cast' which is not what this market is about. This market is about 'votes for President', which is what the resolution source (USElectionAtlas) tracks. Something like 0.8% of all ballots cast do not include a vote for President. So if you think the Elect Project numbers are mostly accurate, which I do, you end up getting around 0.992 * 155,800,000 or 154.6M votes, which is funnily enough very close to what I estimate. I think this confusion between 'ballots' and 'votes for President' is the main reason this market has been so mispriced and there's been so much confusion in the comment section. If anyone has mistakenly bought YES on 155-160M based on this misapprehension, it's probably a good idea to sell now before other people realise it too. Happy hunting! :)
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
rabs
1 year ago
lol where are you getting 2.6M left to be counted from. There are not 2.6M ballots left...
1
rabs
1 year ago
OK I've bought enough shares my risk appetite is exceeded, so I'm happy to share my analysis now. Basically the main thing to understand is that the UFL Elect Project numbers are currently tracking 'ballots cast' which is not what this market is about. This market is about 'votes for President', which is what the resolution source (USElectionAtlas) tracks. Something like 0.8% of all ballots cast do not include a vote for President. So if you think the Elect Project numbers are mostly accurate, which I do, you end up getting around 0.992 * 155,800,000 or 154.6M votes, which is funnily enough very close to what I estimate. I think this confusion between 'ballots' and 'votes for President' is the main reason this market has been so mispriced and there's been so much confusion in the comment section. If anyone has mistakenly bought YES on 155-160M based on this misapprehension, it's probably a good idea to sell now before other people realise it too. Happy hunting! :)
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
rabs
1 year ago
OK I've bought enough shares my risk appetite is exceeded, so I'm happy to share my analysis now. Basically the main thing to understand is that the UFL Elect Project numbers are currently tracking 'ballots cast' which is not what this market is about. This market is about 'votes for President', which is what the resolution source (USElectionAtlas) tracks. Something like 0.8% of all ballots cast do not include a vote for President. So if you think the Elect Project numbers are mostly accurate, which I do, you end up getting around 0.992 * 155,800,000 or 154.6M votes, which is funnily enough very close to what I estimate. I think this confusion between 'ballots' and 'votes for President' is the main reason this market has been so mispriced and there's been so much confusion in the comment section. If anyone has mistakenly bought YES on 155-160M based on this misapprehension, it's probably a good idea to sell now before other people realise it too. Happy hunting! :)
13
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
rabs
1 year ago
oh man i really messed up :(( i had an excel spreadsheet error
9
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
rabs
1 year ago
"he"?
0
SOMON
1 year ago
Does anyone have any idea why Bloomberg gets more votes for candidates than other sites? IF it was a mistake, he should have corrected it already.
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
rabs
1 year ago
its because of the conspiracy
0
JDoe
1 year ago
Ive had at least 3 comments deleted when I mentioned there's nothing (at least that can we see) backing the 150-55 Y apart from Rabs holding most of that liquidity... Why is that?
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
rabs
1 year ago
but i dont have alpha im confused
0
rabs
1 year ago
lol why did the price go UP hahas
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
rabs
1 year ago
what are you saying sorry?
0
rabs
1 year ago
lol why did the price go UP hahas
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
rabs
1 year ago
lol why did the price go UP hahas
2
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
rabs
1 year ago
i think i have lost a lot of money
2
rabs
1 year ago
uh oh. im in danger.
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
rabs
1 year ago
uh oh. im in danger.
4
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
rabs
1 year ago
oh no im just retarded
8
Justifax
1 year ago
Deleted the post as some folks seem to know who 'rabs' is, and speculation seems counterproductive if that's the case.
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
rabs
1 year ago
Sorry can I help you guys?
6
Justifax
1 year ago
Deleted the post as some folks seem to know who 'rabs' is, and speculation seems counterproductive if that's the case.