#653
Rank
14
Comments
10
Likes Received
5
Likes Given
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
rabs
2 weeks ago
It's not my job to correct every misconception that people have. This is one major misconception I wanted to clarify. If people still have wrong numbers after that fact ... good luck to them
1
rabs
2 weeks ago
OK I've bought enough shares my risk appetite is exceeded, so I'm happy to share my analysis now. Basically the main thing to understand is that the UFL Elect Project numbers are currently tracking 'ballots cast' which is not what this market is about. This market is about 'votes for President', which is what the resolution source (USElectionAtlas) tracks. Something like 0.8% of all ballots cast do not include a vote for President. So if you think the Elect Project numbers are mostly accurate, which I do, you end up getting around 0.992 * 155,800,000 or 154.6M votes, which is funnily enough very close to what I estimate. I think this confusion between 'ballots' and 'votes for President' is the main reason this market has been so mispriced and there's been so much confusion in the comment section. If anyone has mistakenly bought YES on 155-160M based on this misapprehension, it's probably a good idea to sell now before other people realise it too. Happy hunting! :)
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
rabs
2 weeks ago
lmao
1
rabs
2 weeks ago
OK I've bought enough shares my risk appetite is exceeded, so I'm happy to share my analysis now. Basically the main thing to understand is that the UFL Elect Project numbers are currently tracking 'ballots cast' which is not what this market is about. This market is about 'votes for President', which is what the resolution source (USElectionAtlas) tracks. Something like 0.8% of all ballots cast do not include a vote for President. So if you think the Elect Project numbers are mostly accurate, which I do, you end up getting around 0.992 * 155,800,000 or 154.6M votes, which is funnily enough very close to what I estimate. I think this confusion between 'ballots' and 'votes for President' is the main reason this market has been so mispriced and there's been so much confusion in the comment section. If anyone has mistakenly bought YES on 155-160M based on this misapprehension, it's probably a good idea to sell now before other people realise it too. Happy hunting! :)
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
rabs
2 weeks ago
lol where are you getting 2.6M left to be counted from. There are not 2.6M ballots left...
1
rabs
2 weeks ago
OK I've bought enough shares my risk appetite is exceeded, so I'm happy to share my analysis now. Basically the main thing to understand is that the UFL Elect Project numbers are currently tracking 'ballots cast' which is not what this market is about. This market is about 'votes for President', which is what the resolution source (USElectionAtlas) tracks. Something like 0.8% of all ballots cast do not include a vote for President. So if you think the Elect Project numbers are mostly accurate, which I do, you end up getting around 0.992 * 155,800,000 or 154.6M votes, which is funnily enough very close to what I estimate. I think this confusion between 'ballots' and 'votes for President' is the main reason this market has been so mispriced and there's been so much confusion in the comment section. If anyone has mistakenly bought YES on 155-160M based on this misapprehension, it's probably a good idea to sell now before other people realise it too. Happy hunting! :)
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
rabs
2 weeks ago
OK I've bought enough shares my risk appetite is exceeded, so I'm happy to share my analysis now. Basically the main thing to understand is that the UFL Elect Project numbers are currently tracking 'ballots cast' which is not what this market is about. This market is about 'votes for President', which is what the resolution source (USElectionAtlas) tracks. Something like 0.8% of all ballots cast do not include a vote for President. So if you think the Elect Project numbers are mostly accurate, which I do, you end up getting around 0.992 * 155,800,000 or 154.6M votes, which is funnily enough very close to what I estimate. I think this confusion between 'ballots' and 'votes for President' is the main reason this market has been so mispriced and there's been so much confusion in the comment section. If anyone has mistakenly bought YES on 155-160M based on this misapprehension, it's probably a good idea to sell now before other people realise it too. Happy hunting! :)
13
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
rabs
2 weeks ago
oh man i really messed up :(( i had an excel spreadsheet error
9
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
rabs
2 weeks ago
"he"?
0
SOMON
2 weeks ago
Does anyone have any idea why Bloomberg gets more votes for candidates than other sites? IF it was a mistake, he should have corrected it already.
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
rabs
2 weeks ago
its because of the conspiracy
0
JDoe
2 weeks ago
Ive had at least 3 comments deleted when I mentioned there's nothing (at least that can we see) backing the 150-55 Y apart from Rabs holding most of that liquidity... Why is that?
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
rabs
3 weeks ago
but i dont have alpha im confused
0
rabs
3 weeks ago
lol why did the price go UP hahas
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
rabs
3 weeks ago
what are you saying sorry?
0
rabs
3 weeks ago
lol why did the price go UP hahas
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
rabs
3 weeks ago
lol why did the price go UP hahas
2
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
rabs
3 weeks ago
i think i have lost a lot of money
2
rabs
3 weeks ago
uh oh. im in danger.
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
rabs
3 weeks ago
uh oh. im in danger.
4
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
rabs
3 weeks ago
oh no im just retarded
8
UnlimitedMarketAbuse
3 weeks ago
Deleted the post as some folks seem to know who 'rabs' is, and speculation seems counterproductive if that's the case.
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
rabs
3 weeks ago
Sorry can I help you guys?
6
UnlimitedMarketAbuse
3 weeks ago
Deleted the post as some folks seem to know who 'rabs' is, and speculation seems counterproductive if that's the case.