#311
Rank
88
Comments
54
Likes Received
34
Likes Given
Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?
Libitum
3 months ago
Zelenskyy comments about timeline for ending the war: "still very, very far away. No real steps in this direction have been taken" https://x.com/front_ukrainian/status/1896424599564243254
3
Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?
Libitum
3 months ago
Air attacks are the only thing that Russia has going on for them. That's what they count on to terrorize Ukrainians into capitulation. Russia will never accept an air truce. Russia wants a full truce after Ukraine returns Kursk, not before. The full truce would allow them to rearm, that is why it is not being proposed by Europe.
0
mk27
3 months ago
https://x.com/AFpost/status/1896358555651027290 Britain and France will propose a one-month truce in Ukraine, President Macron has declared.
Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?
Libitum
3 months ago
The proposal of a 1 month truce is on attacks on energy infrastructure. Even if Russia would accept (it wont), it doesn't count on the resolution of this market because: "must pertain to all theaters of military conflict".
1
mk27
3 months ago
https://x.com/AFpost/status/1896358555651027290 Britain and France will propose a one-month truce in Ukraine, President Macron has declared.
Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?
Libitum
3 months ago
Europe with Ukraine presented today their new plan for achieving peace. Totally opposite of what Putin-Trump bullied Zelenskyy to comply with. Each of the 4 steps proposed by Europe are totally unacceptable by Russia. Europe peace plan means chances for a ceasefire within this year are 0. For this market to resolve to Yes it needs that Zelenskyy rejects Europe plan and instead bends the knee to Trump and signs Ukraine's capitulation within 50 days. https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1896286667075711412
1
Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?
Libitum
3 months ago
Looks like Europe will start building with Ukraine their own peace plan. USA is not invited. https://x.com/clashreport/status/1893712118232256989
0
BuckMySalls
3 months ago
"The US position stands out, it has been stated consistently, it does not call for immediate peace, leaving the line of contact, and then thinking about what to do. We have always emphasized that this option does not suit us. This option was already tried in April 2022 in Istanbul," the minister said. He recalled: "The President clearly said that we are ready to negotiate with both Ukraine and Europe, with any representatives who in a spirit of good will wanted to help achieve peace, but we will stop military actions only when these negotiations produce a firm, sustainable result that suits Russia." Lavrov stressed that "realities on the ground must be taken into account." "In accordance with the Russian Constitution, this choice has acquired an international legal status. And respect for all these realities is, of course, mandatory. Just as Ukraine's categorical non-entry into NATO is mandatory - there must be a clear, ironclad agreement on this," the Russian minister said.
Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?
Libitum
4 months ago
How can that rant translate into a peace deal that Zelenskyy will sign by Easter? Is there a draft ? No. Is there common ground? No. Just insults, lies and blaming Ukraine's leader.
0
Libitum
4 months ago
It looks like Trump is not even trying to get a peace deal anymore. He is just trying to put the blame of the failure on Zelneskyy. My bet is that Saudi Arabia meetings failed miserably and he knows there will not be a peace deal. https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1892242104996258229
Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?
Libitum
4 months ago
It looks like Trump is not even trying to get a peace deal anymore. He is just trying to put the blame of the failure on Zelneskyy. My bet is that Saudi Arabia meetings failed miserably and he knows there will not be a peace deal. https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1892242104996258229
7
Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?
Libitum
4 months ago
Few weeks ago big Yes holders were waiting for the noise of Trump ceasefire meetings to exit with less losses. Noise came and went and they still stayed. Good luck with that! Chances for a peace deal in the next 6 months have always been 0. Maybe 5% by year's end. I don't think Trump can make more noise than what he already did this week. All what comes next are EU and Ukraine reactions. More billions in military packages, removal of US as an ally, etc. The best exit opportunity for Yes holders is already gone.
5
Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?
Libitum
4 months ago
Lol
6
Anon7777
4 months ago
Zelensky calling for an Army of Europe - this is desperation, no Europeans will die for Ukraine. There are no options left for him. Its over.
Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?
Libitum
4 months ago
A ceasefire (a proper ceasefire which ends the war) is also what Trump wants to achieve. Then this market might resolve to YES. It just won't resolve to Yes if there is a Easter humanitarian ceasefire.
0
MrFranko
4 months ago
In my opinion a lot of No holders underestimate the chance of armistice on Easter Day. It’s really could happen as a sign of good will from both sides. It will be enough for resolution. These days this probability more than 29%.
Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?
Libitum
4 months ago
I asked few days ago the same to Google's Gemini. Same answer (although I needed to copy/paste the full Market text otherwise it would refuse to answer)
0
MrFranko
4 months ago
In my opinion a lot of No holders underestimate the chance of armistice on Easter Day. It’s really could happen as a sign of good will from both sides. It will be enough for resolution. These days this probability more than 29%.
Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?
Libitum
4 months ago
Grok answer: "The critical detail here is that the ceasefire or settlement must indicate "at least the temporary end of the Ukraine-Russia military conflict" and must pertain to all theaters of military conflict between the two countries. A one-day ceasefire, especially if hostilities resume the next day, does not suggest a temporary end to the conflict or a negotiated settlement of any meaningful duration. Therefore, it would not meet the criteria for a "YES" resolution as it does not represent a cessation of hostilities or a peace agreement in any substantial form."
0
MrFranko
4 months ago
In my opinion a lot of No holders underestimate the chance of armistice on Easter Day. It’s really could happen as a sign of good will from both sides. It will be enough for resolution. These days this probability more than 29%.
Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?
Libitum
4 months ago
I asked Grok: "If Ukraine and Russia agree on an 1 day ceasefire, with hostilities continuing the next day, will that count as a YES resolution for Polymarket bet market https://polymarket.com/event/trump-wins-ends-ukraine-war-in-90-days"
0
MrFranko
4 months ago
In my opinion a lot of No holders underestimate the chance of armistice on Easter Day. It’s really could happen as a sign of good will from both sides. It will be enough for resolution. These days this probability more than 29%.
Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?
Libitum
4 months ago
Just like people who think that Ukraine will capitulate just because Trump (who is seen as the enemy of Europe) demands it. As ridiculuous as thinking that Denmark will gift Greenland to Trump. Or that Canada will happily sign as US State 51. Or that Trump will ethnic clean Gaza to turn it into Real Estate for the rich.
2
Insidescoop
4 months ago
People who think ukraine will be invited to nato should delete their poly account and do something else. Clearly 0 comprehension of reality
Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?
Libitum
4 months ago
For what it matters, most people here are pro Ukraine. I've never bet against it and never will.
1
Libitum
4 months ago
Putin last week: I will not negotiate with Zelenskyy. Kellog yesterday: Ukraine should have elections before the end of the year. Peskov today: Russia refuses to negotiate with Zelenskyy. Seems Putin and Trump want to remove Zelenskyy and install a puppet to agree to Russia's terms. Yes holders will take it as a sign of a ceasefire due next week (somehow everything is). But in my opinion this means there are no common grounds to start negotiations, thus this market will resolve to NO. But take it as you wish. https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1886360009363054893
Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?
Libitum
4 months ago
But according to Ukrainian law, the leader of parlament does not have the power to negotiate. A roadblock.
2
Libitum
4 months ago
Putin last week: I will not negotiate with Zelenskyy. Kellog yesterday: Ukraine should have elections before the end of the year. Peskov today: Russia refuses to negotiate with Zelenskyy. Seems Putin and Trump want to remove Zelenskyy and install a puppet to agree to Russia's terms. Yes holders will take it as a sign of a ceasefire due next week (somehow everything is). But in my opinion this means there are no common grounds to start negotiations, thus this market will resolve to NO. But take it as you wish. https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1886360009363054893
Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?
Libitum
4 months ago
This is a better link. Peskov audio with subtitles. https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1886349688997118381
1
Libitum
4 months ago
Putin last week: I will not negotiate with Zelenskyy. Kellog yesterday: Ukraine should have elections before the end of the year. Peskov today: Russia refuses to negotiate with Zelenskyy. Seems Putin and Trump want to remove Zelenskyy and install a puppet to agree to Russia's terms. Yes holders will take it as a sign of a ceasefire due next week (somehow everything is). But in my opinion this means there are no common grounds to start negotiations, thus this market will resolve to NO. But take it as you wish. https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1886360009363054893
Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?
Libitum
4 months ago
Putin last week: I will not negotiate with Zelenskyy. Kellog yesterday: Ukraine should have elections before the end of the year. Peskov today: Russia refuses to negotiate with Zelenskyy. Seems Putin and Trump want to remove Zelenskyy and install a puppet to agree to Russia's terms. Yes holders will take it as a sign of a ceasefire due next week (somehow everything is). But in my opinion this means there are no common grounds to start negotiations, thus this market will resolve to NO. But take it as you wish. https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1886360009363054893
4
Will Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico or Canada before February?
Libitum
4 months ago
Executive orders are published by the US Federal Register (https://www.federalregister.gov). This will include Trump's signature. It is not yet published. Once published it will close this market. Being said that, the current odds of 0.3% sound about right. It is nearly impossible that Trump signed it on the 31st. The White House press Release published it on the 1st Feb (https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/02/imposing-duties-to-address-the-flow-of-illicit-drugs-across-our-national-border/) then most likely the executive order was signed also on the 1st February.
5
Will Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico or Canada before February?
Libitum
4 months ago
Lost 130k by voting for Kamala. I've been recovering it quite nicely so far.
1
Libitum
4 months ago
1)Don't buy Yes now, you migh lose it all. 2) This market assumes Trump has not signed it because he has not been on camera signing it. However tariffs are in effect already thus he has signed it. Everything will be clarified on Monday. 3) Trump might sign it today on camera (which means No wins). 4)What a mess!
Will Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico or Canada before February?
Libitum
4 months ago
1)Don't buy Yes now, you migh lose it all. 2) This market assumes Trump has not signed it because he has not been on camera signing it. However tariffs are in effect already thus he has signed it. Everything will be clarified on Monday. 3) Trump might sign it today on camera (which means No wins). 4)What a mess!
2
Will Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico or Canada before February?
Libitum
4 months ago
I am not mad, lol. But I want newbs aware that most of posts here are people pumping so they can exit their positions. You posted hundreds of times that NO was 100% sure so that you could exit (by buying Yes shares) with better prices. Whoever believed your posts and bought the counterpart, got the shares at worse price.
0
Libitum
4 months ago
So @justchillin posts hundreds of times so that he can exit his NO position and switch to YES in profit by causing panic. He bought 2.8k Yes shares few minutes ago. And that is only the most active NO pumper. In reality this market ends when Trump signs the executive orders today at 3pm ET. Will it include the Tariffs or was he bluffing or will he sign the tariffs at Mar-a-lago on the weekend? Nobody knows for sure. That is what you are betting on.
Will Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico or Canada before February?
Libitum
4 months ago
Same with the other NO pumper @RonaldKJ who also exited fully his NO position after lots of NO pumping posts.
0
Libitum
4 months ago
So @justchillin posts hundreds of times so that he can exit his NO position and switch to YES in profit by causing panic. He bought 2.8k Yes shares few minutes ago. And that is only the most active NO pumper. In reality this market ends when Trump signs the executive orders today at 3pm ET. Will it include the Tariffs or was he bluffing or will he sign the tariffs at Mar-a-lago on the weekend? Nobody knows for sure. That is what you are betting on.
Will Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico or Canada before February?
Libitum
4 months ago
So @justchillin posts hundreds of times so that he can exit his NO position and switch to YES in profit by causing panic. He bought 2.8k Yes shares few minutes ago. And that is only the most active NO pumper. In reality this market ends when Trump signs the executive orders today at 3pm ET. Will it include the Tariffs or was he bluffing or will he sign the tariffs at Mar-a-lago on the weekend? Nobody knows for sure. That is what you are betting on.
0
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?
Libitum
4 months ago
That might be true. But I don't think they will just meet up to say Hi. They need to have an announcement to make. Maybe not yet a full ceasefire, but something to announce, eg. the start of formal negotiations with Ukr, Rus, EU, US teams. There has not been even a phone call yet. How hard is it to arrange a freaking phone call? After a phone call you need at least a month for meeting personally. Once there is a phone call and there is more information, this market will react. Before that, it will keep bleeding to 0 (if there is not even a phone call during February).
0
Libitum
4 months ago
Besides Putin wanting to meet Trump, 1 week ago Trump also confirmed that he is "ready to meet Putin as soon as possible". https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-says-he-wants-meet-putin-soon-ensure-end-ukraine-war-2025-01-23/
Will Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico or Canada before February?
Libitum
4 months ago
he didn't say tariffs will be announced on Saturday. He said that tariffs start on Saturday.
0
Analisador
4 months ago
He officially said that he will impose the tariffs on 1st of February, so this is an easy No.
Will Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico or Canada before February?
Libitum
4 months ago
The Yes argument (I think it is a 50-50, not saying Yes will win) is that for Tariffs to apply since 1st Feb, he will need to sign those today. In addition, in his today schedule, he will sign executive orders today at 3pm, whether tariffs are among those it is impossible to know but it is a good possibility. This market is pure gambling because Trump is quite unpredictable.
1
Analisador
4 months ago
He officially said that he will impose the tariffs on 1st of February, so this is an easy No.
Will Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico or Canada before February?
Libitum
4 months ago
If Trump doesn't follow through his today's promise he show himself as a terrible and weak negotiator. He would never do that. My only doubts are 1)He signs on Saturday or 2) He says tomorrow that he will delay it because Mexico or Canada begged him. Those things can happen. I'm not planning to sell anything though. I think chances for Yes are right now better than 50%.
0
Libitum
4 months ago
Hard to know how this market will resolve. DOW Jones reacted fast but recovered most of the drop within an hour. Then not everybody thinks Trump will follow through. On the other hand, Canadian dollar and Mexican pesos, both had a strong drop in value and have not recovered. Then Mexicans and Canadians do believe that tariffs will apply since Feb 1st (meaning Trump will sign it tomorrow). This is pure gambling. Bet at your own risk and no more than 5% of your PNL.
Will Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico or Canada before February?
Libitum
4 months ago
Hard to know how this market will resolve. DOW Jones reacted fast but recovered most of the drop within an hour. Then not everybody thinks Trump will follow through. On the other hand, Canadian dollar and Mexican pesos, both had a strong drop in value and have not recovered. Then Mexicans and Canadians do believe that tariffs will apply since Feb 1st (meaning Trump will sign it tomorrow). This is pure gambling. Bet at your own risk and no more than 5% of your PNL.
1
Will Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico or Canada before February?
Libitum
4 months ago
I hope he does.
0
Libitum
4 months ago
Just made a degen bet. For Yes to work out it needs that Trump is not going golfing tomorrow and actually signs the damn thing! The 10:1 odds are too juicy to ignore. Odds are probably around 50/50.
Will Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico or Canada before February?
Libitum
4 months ago
Just made a degen bet. For Yes to work out it needs that Trump is not going golfing tomorrow and actually signs the damn thing! The 10:1 odds are too juicy to ignore. Odds are probably around 50/50.
2
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?
Libitum
4 months ago
Just commenting to add some different view. Seems all comments here are from Yes holders which when reading those might make people wonder why this market is not already a 100c for Yes.
0
Libitum
4 months ago
Besides Putin wanting to meet Trump, 1 week ago Trump also confirmed that he is "ready to meet Putin as soon as possible". https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-says-he-wants-meet-putin-soon-ensure-end-ukraine-war-2025-01-23/
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?
Libitum
4 months ago
The tricky point here is that meeting will not solve anything then it is not easy to know when will they actually meet. Thus the 50-50 for this market make a lot of sense. Presidents meet after all the groundwork is done. This market is tied to when a ceasefire deal is agreed between Russia and Ukraine. My guess is that such deal will still take months, then they might meet still after this market closes. But this is a very tricky bet, 50-50 is correctly priced in my opinion.
0
Libitum
4 months ago
Besides Putin wanting to meet Trump, 1 week ago Trump also confirmed that he is "ready to meet Putin as soon as possible". https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-says-he-wants-meet-putin-soon-ensure-end-ukraine-war-2025-01-23/
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?
Libitum
4 months ago
Besides Putin wanting to meet Trump, 1 week ago Trump also confirmed that he is "ready to meet Putin as soon as possible". https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-says-he-wants-meet-putin-soon-ensure-end-ukraine-war-2025-01-23/
0
Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?
Libitum
4 months ago
I am not trying to fake fun of Yes holders. If a Yes holder would have read my arguments 1 month ago and close his position, he would have sold for 40cents. 2 weeks ago they would have sold for 30c. Now they would sell for 20c. In few weeks they might sell for 10c. And if I am correct they will end up with 0 in 80 days. Isn't it good for Yes holders to read arguments against their bet so that they can evaluate if they are in the right side of the bet? Reading the daily Yes-pumpers comments is what harms Yes holders the most.
2
Libitum
4 months ago
In today's news: Sweden announces its biggest military package to Ukraine worth 1.2 billion USD. How strange considering that according to Yes-holders this war is ending in less than 80 days. https://x.com/DefenceU/status/1884981769432084676
Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?
Libitum
4 months ago
The 5:1 odds makes it very tempting for buying Yes. Don't you think that those odds might be influencing your judgement? The only risk I see would be an under the table negotiation as you mentioned. Because all the news coming from mainstream and Telegram channels, from all sources (Russia, Ukraine, Europe, US) do not show that a ceasefire can be signed in 80 days (ceasefire at the end of the year probably). Then at the moment I see the risk at less than 10% for this market. I will close my position right away if some day I read news that point that Yes might have better chances but so far I haven't found such.
0
Libitum
4 months ago
In today's news: Sweden announces its biggest military package to Ukraine worth 1.2 billion USD. How strange considering that according to Yes-holders this war is ending in less than 80 days. https://x.com/DefenceU/status/1884981769432084676
Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?
Libitum
4 months ago
5) People who read the comments will have better tools to evaluate Yes and No arguments. It is a social service to prevent people to lose money buying Yes shares enticed with the potential (but fake) 350% ROI.
0
Libitum
4 months ago
In today's news: Sweden announces its biggest military package to Ukraine worth 1.2 billion USD. How strange considering that according to Yes-holders this war is ending in less than 80 days. https://x.com/DefenceU/status/1884981769432084676
Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?
Libitum
4 months ago
1) Because Yes arguments lack any logic. 2) If I find reasonable Yes arguments, I'll reduce my position accordingly. So far has not happened. 3) Entertainment. 4) If Yes share price goes under 5 cents over a month before the deadline I might sell out of boredom.
1
Libitum
4 months ago
In today's news: Sweden announces its biggest military package to Ukraine worth 1.2 billion USD. How strange considering that according to Yes-holders this war is ending in less than 80 days. https://x.com/DefenceU/status/1884981769432084676
Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?
Libitum
4 months ago
In today's news: Sweden announces its biggest military package to Ukraine worth 1.2 billion USD. How strange considering that according to Yes-holders this war is ending in less than 80 days. https://x.com/DefenceU/status/1884981769432084676
4
Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?
Libitum
4 months ago
I guess he is thinking about it daily. He is losing 4k everytime Yes share price drops 1 cent. Bleeding thousands every single day has a toll. When he does, Yes share price will dump to 2 cents.
1
Ernis
4 months ago
Imagine if @Gosmo cashed out
Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?
Libitum
4 months ago
81 days to close this market and negotiations have not even started yet. When will those start? The Guardian today: "Putin: I will not negotiate with Zelenskyy". Reminder that 2 weeks ago Russia Telegram channels detailed that peace negotiations were already held in December with Trump envoys but it failed. That explains why Trump and Putin are not pushing for starting negotiations. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jan/29/ukraine-war-briefing-putin-refuses-direct-talks-with-zelenskyy
2
Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?
Libitum
4 months ago
You are handpicking few lines and rewriting those to fit your own understanding. Here the real text: "To count toward the resolution of this market, an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement must be indicative of at least the temporary end of the Ukraine-Russia military conflict, must pertain to all theaters of military conflict between ... ". Thus a humanitarian ceasefire will not resolve this market because it's purpose is not the end of the military conflict. Title is also perfectly aligned to the market rules. Title doesn't fit your rewriten rules thus you prefer to ignore it. It doesn't work like that.
3
leksus
4 months ago
For the market to be resolved "yes" one (any) of the conditions is needed: 1) armistice; 2) ceasefire (it is not specified which one, so any, temporary); 3) settlement by negotiations. Name of the market doesn't make sense, rules is the king.
Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?
Libitum
4 months ago
To double check I copy/pasted the whole Market Rules into Google's Gemini (Chat GPT bullshits if it does not understand something but Gemini tells you straight that there is not enough information available to answer) and asked it if a Christmas or Easter 24-48 hours ceasefire counts to the resolution of the market and the answer was NO because it does not signal an intent to end the war. It is not only my understanding of the rules, it is also how UMA has resolved similar ceasefire markets, and also how Gemini understand the same Market rules text. You should reread it.
0
Zorroh
4 months ago
I think trump can do it
Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?
Libitum
4 months ago
Following your logic, why to settle with 350% ROI! Fun fact: if you bet on a lotto ticket you will get 1000000000% profit. Lotto tickets are critically underpriced, let's buy more!
13
Xenophorm
4 months ago
Funny fact: if you bet on "yes" you will get 350% profit, while betting on "no" will give you only 25%. Free money lol, yes is critically underpriced, let's buy more!
Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?
Libitum
4 months ago
Trump's most talked-about campaign promise was to end the war within 24 hours or even before taking office. Since you trust that Trump never breaks his promises you should have put your money on Trump ending the war within 24 hours. How much money would you have made, right? https://x.com/LemonSturgis/status/1878593184252719241
5
markaspo
4 months ago
Yes” is ridiculously undervalued right now. I’d definitely load up. The fact that Trump’s most talked-about campaign promise was ending the war should be enough to convince you to bet on “yes.” And if that’s not convincing enough, any significant move from his administration will send this soaring.
Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?
Libitum
4 months ago
Shouldn't you buy YES then?
2
Xenophorm
4 months ago
What's going on guys??? why everyone is selling yes? buy more yes instead! please! Trump will 100% end this war
Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?
Libitum
4 months ago
A humanitarian ceasefire (eg during Christmas or Easter) does not count towards the resolution of this market. The ceasefire or negotiated settlement needs to relate with the end of the military conflict: "at least the temporary end of the Ukraine-Russia military conflict". This market is about ending the war (read the market title), not about having a 24 hours humanitarian pause (which will anyway not happen, as this has already been declined by Zelenskyy repeated times).
0
Zorroh
4 months ago
I think trump can do it
Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?
Libitum
4 months ago
Fully agree. Yes holders are still able to exit with a big chunk of their investment. In 1-2 weeks they will exit with half what what they have left today. There are no negotiations going on at the moment and not even Trump has any serious plan for a ceasefire in 80 days. Miracles don't happen. There are 0 analysts claiming that a ceasefire in so short time is possible. Yes shares will go to under 10 cents within couple of weeks when those things are more evident. Better to exit now that to lose it all.
2
n/a
4 months ago
To the people holding yes, I don't recommend holding the bag. Your only chance is contingent on there being literally any negotiations close to right now. Let alone the time from start of the negotiations to If there will be a resolution. It's much too small a time frame for any ceasefire to happen. And that's contingent on there being any good results to the negotiations that are already contingent on whether they happen in this time frame or not, since one small delay could push them out of this very small 80 days deadline. And no, putin last time was fooled by negotiations through ceasefires in which the west used those negotiations and their ceasefire to arm Ukraine more while it was on the back foot (Angela Merkel openly addmited openly to this https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2022/12/22/ffci-d22.html?.). Thus Russia stated numerous times it won't do any ceasefire in the negotiations stage again, especially when it has huge momentum which would be destroyed if it did. Even Trump said that he expects this to end beyond the time-frame of this market resolution. I'd recommend selling now.
Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?
Libitum
4 months ago
So there is really nothing backing YES holders? You are scrapping the barrel with that article. USAID is not one of the tools Trump is using to push for a ceasefire in Ukraine. It has 0 impact on a ceasefire. USAID is important Worldwide but humanitarian aid given to Ukraine is less than what EU provides. Only halting military aid would have an impact (although not for this market, maybe half year from now), but as clarified in the article you mention: "The Pentagon clarified on Jan. 23 that relating to Ukraine, the directive only applies to development programs, not military support."
0
NINE
4 months ago
https://kyivindependent.com/trump-suspends-aid-to-ukraine-vital-ngos-dont-know-if-theyll-survive/ we getting a peace deal soon.
Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?
Libitum
4 months ago
This market will remove wealth from all who voted for Trump. MAGA trust Trump promises of 24 hours which now changed to 100 days (or more). Democrats and Europeans (nobody in EU likes Trump) can see Trump as a lying idiot who is used to make empty promises.
1
Ernis
4 months ago
This market will be a wealth transfer from Americans to Europeans. People don't realise not *everything* resolves around the US. This war will continue as long as Putin can continue annexing territories, and there isn't one thing that can cripple the aggressor in 83 days.
Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?
Libitum
5 months ago
I see you have been selling tens of thousands of Yes shares in the last couple of days. Just 2 more days and you will manage to close your position. Better now than next week when you will get half.
2
PBet
5 months ago
Notice how no holders have a multitude of alt accounts that were created in the last few days that spam "PeAce iS hArD", while yes actually has arguments/links to support their claims
Will Israel withdraw from Philadelphi corridor by March 8?
Libitum
5 months ago
So basically this market is about Israel fulfilling its part of the ceasefire deal. Tough call.
1
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?
Libitum
5 months ago
Trump National Security Adviser: "you can't enter a deal if you don't have some type of dailogue with the other side. We will establish that in the coming months" The thing is that he talks about a phone call. It is customary to have meet personally only after all the groundwork has been done, which will happen at a later phase, I guess by the end of this year if somehow Russia and Ukraine find an acceptable solution which right now seems impossible. https://x.com/Mylovanov/status/1878545032648556678
1
Trudeau no confidence motion passes before April?
Libitum
5 months ago
Trudeau confirmed today he will resign. That means that this market will resolve to NO, waiting only for the formalities. There is not going to be a non confidence vote anymore. https://x.com/bennyjohnson/status/1876306722433990837
1
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April?
Libitum
5 months ago
I'm anyway not putting more than 8% in this market, there are obvious risks that my guestimate is wrong.
0
Libitum
5 months ago
The main scenarios for how Yoon impeachment may develop give hardly a 50-50 chance (current price of this market). My guestimate is a 20% chance for the Constitutional Court to approve the impeachment before this market deadline.
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April?
Libitum
5 months ago
The first impeachment attempt failed because the PPP was negotiating with Yoon an early resignation. Those discussions failed because Yoon thought he could get a better outcome fighting in the Court. Then claiming that all 6 justices will vote against Yoon (some of them are named by the PPP) equals to claim that you know better than Yoon himself.
1
Libitum
5 months ago
The main scenarios for how Yoon impeachment may develop give hardly a 50-50 chance (current price of this market). My guestimate is a 20% chance for the Constitutional Court to approve the impeachment before this market deadline.
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April?
Libitum
5 months ago
Scenario 2: PPP will not name new justices (as acting presidents Han and Choi have already said), then Yoon impeachment will most likely not succeed. It takes only 1 justice to vote against for Yoon to be reinstated as President.
1
Libitum
5 months ago
The main scenarios for how Yoon impeachment may develop give hardly a 50-50 chance (current price of this market). My guestimate is a 20% chance for the Constitutional Court to approve the impeachment before this market deadline.
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April?
Libitum
5 months ago
Scenario 1: The Constitutional Court approves Yoon impeachment. Court deadline is 10th June. Yoon and PPP are playing to delay and Dems are trying to speed things up. Getting the vote before this market ends is 50-50.
1
Libitum
5 months ago
The main scenarios for how Yoon impeachment may develop give hardly a 50-50 chance (current price of this market). My guestimate is a 20% chance for the Constitutional Court to approve the impeachment before this market deadline.
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April?
Libitum
5 months ago
The main scenarios for how Yoon impeachment may develop give hardly a 50-50 chance (current price of this market). My guestimate is a 20% chance for the Constitutional Court to approve the impeachment before this market deadline.
3
Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?
Libitum
6 months ago
"90% deal complete". So with luck, by June next year there might be a deal.
4
One.trade
6 months ago
BREAKING: A ceasefire agreement in the Israel-Gaza conflict is reportedly imminent, with most terms already settled! This could be a turning point for peace in the region.
Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?
Libitum
6 months ago
I've reduced my exposure to this market. Don't like the odds atm. "flight", "fight", honest mistake.
1
its.just.fire
6 months ago
@libitum just sell bro instead of spreading false info...its over...
Will Russia pull out of Syria before April 2025?
Libitum
6 months ago
Russia is leaving Syria. Here a Middle East correspondant with 38k followers: https://x.com/stephglinski/status/1865420115195441468
2
Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?
Libitum
6 months ago
See how close Tartus is from Homs. https://x.com/roshoo61/status/1864716318529957963/photo/2
1
Libitum
6 months ago
If Homs fall, which might happen (battle starting tomorrow), Tartus becomes undefendable https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1864702065810763812
Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?
Libitum
6 months ago
If Homs fall, which might happen (battle starting tomorrow), Tartus becomes undefendable https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1864702065810763812
1
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?
Libitum
6 months ago
This is called the "Final review" because there can't be more disputes. The Yes is final.
0
tiodenz
6 months ago
Well, in 6 hours we will know if there is no new dispute, it means that we should not enter these types of markets. Let them eat the donations of other asshol3s.
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?
Libitum
6 months ago
That's the URL of UMA (the organization handling the voting). From there you click on "Launch App", from the options you click on this market title and it will show you the voting results on real time.
0
BlackSky123
6 months ago
The votes on vote.uma.xyz are all fake. There is a massive conspiracy to cover this all up.
Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?
Libitum
7 months ago
That is Hamas side. I have little money here then I'll let it run. But it is worth noting that only Qatar statements are worth anything. Hamas is known for lying.
1
R.Burgundy
7 months ago
In a statement to Quds News Network, Mahmoud Mardawi, a senior leader in Hamas, dismissed circulating media reports about Qatar and the groups office in Doha as part of a propaganda war. More details: https://qudsnen.co/senior-hamas-official-to-quds-news-reports-on-qatar-and-movements-doha-office-are-propaganda-war/
U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?
Libitum
7 months ago
https://tass.com/world/1870033
3
U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?
Libitum
7 months ago
https://x.com/EliAfriatISR/status/1855326026060136597
0
U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?
Libitum
7 months ago
OK. done deal then. This will resolve to Yes. Because of today, not because of October 25th
0
Car
7 months ago
https://x.com/IranIntl_En/status/1855321682761703721
U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?
Libitum
7 months ago
Tricky situation. There is 0 information in international media (thus no consensus of credible media). But UMA has resolved in the past according to whales holdings rather than truth. This might be one of those cases.
1
Supreme Court vacancy in 2024?
Libitum
7 months ago
Not many comments yet. I'll start. SCOTUS Sotomayor is 72 yo. She will retire soon. If she retires this year, Biden will name the sucessor (Kamala Harris). If Sotomayor retires during Trump's term, he names the sucessor. Sotomayor will not want that.
0
Will Ukraine hold Kursk through 2024?
Libitum
7 months ago
Scammer! You have been selling your NO position for 13 hours already. You are posting lies to find buyers
2
Crock95
7 months ago
WOW. Zelensky's close deputy. Maryana Bezuglaya: "Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Syrsky is preparing the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the Kursk region," https://zn.ua/war/bezuhlaja-schitaet-chto-syrskij-hotovitsja-vyvodit-sily-oborony-iz-kurskoj-oblasti.html
Iran strike on Israel by Nov 8?
Libitum
7 months ago
Noob "Vortexlovestogamble" bought 11000 shares at market price and then with a 2nd account bought another 6000. Now he is down 1k-2k$ in each account for that mistake.
3
TheArtist
7 months ago
What caused that pulse an hour ago?
Another Israeli military action against Iran in 2024?
Libitum
7 months ago
It didnt. UMA confirmed. Yes people can google all they want. There was no attack in Iraq. Class Action lawsuit against Polymarket will happen in few weeks.
0
plymarket-user
7 months ago
***BIDDERS BEWARD*** See what happened here: https://polymarket.com/event/israel-military-action-against-iraq-before-november
Iran strike on Israel by Nov 8?
Libitum
7 months ago
Hezbollah doesn't count as Iran.
0
ANONYMOUS.
7 months ago
Missile fired from Iran at ben gurion, should I propose yes? Has someone proposed yet?
Iran strike on Israel by Nov 8?
Libitum
7 months ago
The only way Iran attacks Israel is if Israel first bombs Iran's nuclear sites. Otherwise Iran will keep barking without taking any action
0
Solana above $170 on November 8?
Libitum
7 months ago
It was going to pump regardless of who wins. 4billion USD in crypto was locked down in Polymarket alone with Election bets. Now whales are buying because those 4 billion will go back into crypto when the Election markets are resolved.
2
AlexKytsay
7 months ago
It's pumping because trump is winning in the elections by plus 9
Solana above $170 on November 8?
Libitum
7 months ago
Solana will hit 170 today and 180 before the week ends. Mark this post.
2
Solana above $170 on November 8?
Libitum
7 months ago
Yes. It only matter the price at that second on Nov 24th. Whether it goes to 200 today is irrelevant. Price needs to be above 170 at that second on Nov 8.
1
Saururious
7 months ago
Pls someone just explain this, is that mean does this refer to the last 1min candle and is it the start or end of the day ET time? This market will resolve to "Ye if the Binance 1 minute candle for SOLUSDT 08 Nov 24 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon)
Favorite to win on Polymarket day before election?
Libitum
7 months ago
It is getting too expensive to Fredi9999 alts to keep pushing Trump odds. 10m per day now. Eventually he will give up.
4
Bitcoin up on Nov 6?
Libitum
7 months ago
Elections are on Nov 5. The reaction to BTC prices will be in the eve of Nov 5. This market is about price between the end of Nov 6 and end of Nov7. How is this related with the election?
0
Israel military action against Iraq before November?
Libitum
7 months ago
If any of you have an X account, you should repost this. It is the only one I found complaining in X about this market. https://x.com/nilver_paiva/status/1850970743359631367
4
Israel military action against Iraq before November?
Libitum
7 months ago
Israel statement details its retaliation. It only included Iran: https://x.com/warmonitorME/status/1850013191838773414:
1
Libitum
7 months ago
Israel denied targets in Iraq. Iraq denied there was any attack on Israel. All comments are being deleted here. Go to X to protest!
Israel military action against Iraq before November?
Libitum
7 months ago
I found this. Although my X account is so tiny that I can't make noise even if I repost it. https://x.com/nilver_paiva/status/1850970743359631367
0
Libitum
7 months ago
Israel denied targets in Iraq. Iraq denied there was any attack on Israel. All comments are being deleted here. Go to X to protest!
Israel military action against Iraq before November?
Libitum
7 months ago
Israel denied targets in Iraq. Iraq denied there was any attack on Israel. All comments are being deleted here. Go to X to protest!
4
Another Iran strike on Israel in October?
Libitum
7 months ago
Nope. A drone will never reach Israel from Iran. Drones are too slow and carry too light warhead. Only ballistic missiles can be sent from Iran. And Iran will need at least 100 to hope for any of those to reach Israel.
0
FrancisSP8
7 months ago
What most don't realize is that just a single drone launch is enough for this market to resolve to YES. It can literally happen anytime.