#1728
Rank
30
Comments
9
Likes Received
19
Likes Given
Israel strikes Iranian oil in October?
BobMenendez
2 months ago
Don't see this going Yes in hindsight, too hard to prove even if it was contested.
3
Israel strikes Iranian oil in October?
BobMenendez
2 months ago
Yeah i mean he's evidently lying because look at the sat images. But i think this will be hard to prove Yes on because the Iranians don't want to admit it & Israel won't claim it
1
Qtyu
2 months ago
The CEO confirmed there was no damage. https://en.irna.ir/news/85639625/Abadan-Refinery-not-affected-by-Israeli-regime-s-attacks-CEO
Israel strikes Iranian oil in October?
BobMenendez
2 months ago
Still think this should trade up, it's clear an Israeli munition hit a storage tanker
0
BobMenendez
2 months ago
Strange one, i can see this coming down to a proof issue. Unless Israel claims it i wonder if UMA would settle it - seems to me like Israel could have done it by mistake, or as a warning that they won't publicly claim...
Israel strikes Iranian oil in October?
BobMenendez
2 months ago
Strange one, i can see this coming down to a proof issue. Unless Israel claims it i wonder if UMA would settle it - seems to me like Israel could have done it by mistake, or as a warning that they won't publicly claim...
0
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?
BobMenendez
2 months ago
Don't like some of the comments coming out from Israel / some leaders. Feels like strikes against Iran's program could be back on the cards
0
BobMenendez
3 months ago
Yeah this is an interesting market now, personally don't believe a proof threshold has been crossed. None of these facilities were ever confirmed to have nuclear testing - it was all speculation.
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?
BobMenendez
3 months ago
Yeah this is an interesting market now, personally don't believe a proof threshold has been crossed. None of these facilities were ever confirmed to have nuclear testing - it was all speculation.
0
Israel military response against Iran today?
BobMenendez
3 months ago
Doesn't confirm that they'll hit Iran tonight, but i'd give it at least 50% chance
0
BobMenendez
3 months ago
https://x.com/Faytuks/status/1841185330566680736 IDF Spokesperson says that the Israeli air force will strike "powerfully" in the Middle East tonight
Israel military response against Iran today?
BobMenendez
3 months ago
https://x.com/Faytuks/status/1841185330566680736 IDF Spokesperson says that the Israeli air force will strike "powerfully" in the Middle East tonight
3
Iran strike on Israel before November?
BobMenendez
3 months ago
hmmm
0
IlliaC
3 months ago
nothing ever happens i'm 100% bullish on NO
Iran strike on Israel before November?
BobMenendez
3 months ago
https://x.com/AviMayer/status/1841125861786816831 Seems like this attack will happen, targets already tacitly agreed / acknowledged. Feels v similar to April
1
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
BobMenendez
3 months ago
This is a dumb take, it's very clear that IDF troops were in Lebanon last night and continue to be. The real question is what constitutes " establishing control over any portion of Lebanon" - You can honestly argue it both ways imo. Targetted raids in Lebanon to destroy infrastructure etc require Israel to take control over the territory for their objectives to be met. If you're on the No side, maybe you think it requires the intent to hold the territory for an indefinite period, but it's really not clear.
0
Ferguson,Turd
3 months ago
sir best arguemtn for NO. besides the fact there is zero actual evidence outside of idf statements that any troops are even in lebanon or were in lebanon
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
BobMenendez
3 months ago
good point tbf. Still think this will likely be Yes though, unless the IDF get out of Lebanon ASAP and this was just a "raid"
0
salameezy
3 months ago
otherwise was differentiates this trade from the other listing around ground entrance
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
BobMenendez
3 months ago
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1840889735457169422 This is going to be another Polymarket special isn't it? Think it's probably fair for this market to be graded as Yes, but the "establish control over" stipulation makes it interesting if their forces don't stay in Lebanon.
2
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
BobMenendez
3 months ago
https://x.com/BarakRavid/status/1840887365558018284
0
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
BobMenendez
3 months ago
https://x.com/Jerusalem_Post/status/1840851183654568138 this is pretty clear
3
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
BobMenendez
3 months ago
https://x.com/Jerusalem_Post/status/1840850935037239467
1
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
BobMenendez
3 months ago
US State briefing over, wonder if they were waiting for that to end
1
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
BobMenendez
3 months ago
Honestly think you should bail on this position, seems like Israel op will be limited at first but easily enough to satisfy the requirements
0
Car
3 months ago
🚗🚗🚗 they have said they are entering to destroy infrastructure. Not to controll the area. Do yall even read the rules? lol
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
BobMenendez
3 months ago
https://www.axios.com/2024/09/30/israel-ground-invasion-lebanon
0
Car
3 months ago
🚗🚗🚗 they have said they are entering to destroy infrastructure. Not to controll the area. Do yall even read the rules? lol
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
BobMenendez
3 months ago
It's splitting hairs beyond belief to try and count cross border raids by special forces as not combat operations lol
0
BobMenendez
3 months ago
I sold a yes position and now hold a tiny No position. Still think this market should resolve to Yes.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
BobMenendez
3 months ago
I sold a yes position and now hold a tiny No position. Still think this market should resolve to Yes.
0
n/a
3 months ago
By definition, “combat” literally means “fighting between armed forces.” It’s about actual confrontation—direct engagement where armed forces are actively fighting each other. This is why the market’s requirement of combat operations is so significant. For these raids to qualify, the intent should clearly be to engage in fighting, not just to gather information or conduct reconnaissance. The operations described in the reports focus on intelligence gathering, targeting infrastructure, and probing, which do not align with the definition of combat. There’s no evidence that these incursions were intended as a fight between Israeli forces and Hezbollah, just actions aimed at weakening capabilities and collecting data. Without proof of an intent to engage in direct armed confrontation, there’s simply no basis for calling these actions combat operations. The rules clearly require this distinction, and without it, a “Yes” resolution is completely unsupported.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
BobMenendez
3 months ago
That market has different criteria though, requires Israel to commence an invasion to establish control over a part of Lebanon. Totally different to this market.
0
dav1
3 months ago
Yes chance at 7% on this market... https://polymarket.com/event/will-israel-invade-lebanon-in-september/will-israel-invade-lebanon-in-september?tid=1727698765511
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
BobMenendez
3 months ago
Israeli special forces are not entering Lebanon for a picnic, if they're entering Hez tunnels across the border it's clearly a combat incursion
0
NotJustKen
3 months ago
Fuck this. Going on vacation for few days. Won't open it till then. Fuck the truth as well. My only hope is Pence manipulating the market. Jerusalem Post cleared it that it was to "gain information" not to engage in combat. I don't know how it will resolve to Yes.. Peace out.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
BobMenendez
3 months ago
hmmmm
0
Porcoddio
3 months ago
LMAOOOOO this will be resolved as No, you all are braindead.
Pavel Durov released in August?
BobMenendez
5 months ago
French prosecutors will make their decision at 20:00 CET - so this market will be decided tonight
0
Pavel Durov released in August?
BobMenendez
5 months ago
https://www.euronews.com/next/2024/08/28/french-prosecutors-set-to-charge-or-release-telegram-ceo-pavel-durov-on-wednesday
0
Will Bob Menendez resign by July 31?
BobMenendez
6 months ago
*i denied this to CBS. These so called allies do not speak for me!+
0
Pointman
6 months ago
Bob Menendez announces he will resign from the Senate after being convicted of corruption Despite his reluctance to resign for months, the recent guilty verdict forced the senator to reconsider his position. https://voz.us/en/politics/240718/14668/bob-menendez-announces-he-will-resign-from-senate-after-being-convicted-of-corruption.html
Will Bob Menendez resign by July 31?
BobMenendez
6 months ago
This is old news, he denied this to CBS. Said that these so called allies didn't speak for him.
0
Pointman
6 months ago
Bob Menendez announces he will resign from the Senate after being convicted of corruption Despite his reluctance to resign for months, the recent guilty verdict forced the senator to reconsider his position. https://voz.us/en/politics/240718/14668/bob-menendez-announces-he-will-resign-from-senate-after-being-convicted-of-corruption.html
Will Bob Menendez resign by July 31?
BobMenendez
6 months ago
I ain't fucking leaving
2
Will Bob Menendez resign by July 31?
BobMenendez
6 months ago
Old info i'm afraid - https://www.cbsnews.com/newyork/news/bob-menendez-not-resigning-guilty-bribery-trial/
0
lordprotector - 7340
6 months ago
Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez tells allies he will resign after bribery conviction https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/democratic-sen-bob-menendez-tells-allies-will-resign-bribery-convictio-rcna116970