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Will the U.S. abandon Syrian base before April 2025?
keribit
2 weeks ago
"NEW - #Israel’s Kan News says #Trump has informed #Netanyahu’s government that he intends to withdraw US forces from #Syria." Source: https://x.com/Charles_Lister/status/1884339950847463435
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Will the U.S. abandon Syrian base before April 2025?
keribit
3 weeks ago
Edit: more than 2 months, the point remains the same though
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keribit
3 weeks ago
Flipped to "Yes" now, obviously it is more likely they stay, but the current 9% odds they leave are too low. There are still more than 3 months left, and once a decision is made things can move very fast, since it's not a very permanent or big base. It will depend a lot on Trump, who is famously unpredictable, which would not make me feel very comfortable sitting on 91 cents on the dollar for the next 3+ months. Especially with other juicy bets during this time offering better risk/reward, not to speak of crypto yield and gains once Trump becomes president. 9% over 3 months just 3% a month
Will the U.S. abandon Syrian base before April 2025?
keribit
3 weeks ago
Flipped to "Yes" now, obviously it is more likely they stay, but the current 9% odds they leave are too low. There are still more than 3 months left, and once a decision is made things can move very fast, since it's not a very permanent or big base. It will depend a lot on Trump, who is famously unpredictable, which would not make me feel very comfortable sitting on 91 cents on the dollar for the next 3+ months. Especially with other juicy bets during this time offering better risk/reward, not to speak of crypto yield and gains once Trump becomes president. 9% over 3 months just 3% a month
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Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?
keribit
1 month ago
“We do not want Russia to leave Syria in the way some people like.” - HTS leader. https://x.com/MyLordBebo/status/1873697468216697221 , flipped from "Yes" to "No" here, also considering the short timeframe for a complete withdrawal and relocation of the whole base. Seems they want to keep decent relations with Russia and kicking them out on short notice does not serve that, no matter long-term negotiations.
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Will the U.S. abandon Syrian base before April 2025?
keribit
2 months ago
Regarding friction with the new government. We're currently at 4% odds elections will happen till end of January. https://polymarket.com/event/will-syria-hold-national-elections-by-january-31?tid=1734194011295 HTS is still officially designated a terrorist organization. I am getting more the impression they pick the US,Turkey side vs. Iran,Russia and need their backing, otherwise they stand alone. So more like they have to play nice and make concessions, not dictate terms. The US base is more helpful than harmful actually, since Iran supports Assad, keeping the US troops there during the period of instability guarantees the area is safe and secured without needing to use your own men for it. They won't have to worry about it for now and can arrange something later, way beyone end of March. if I was the HTS leader I would not ask Trump to get rid of it quickly, and for sure not pressure him.
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denizz
2 months ago
This base was positioned to block a weapons smuggling route between Iran and Hezbollah, a route which no longer exists due to the fall of the Syrian government. Otherwise it is in the middle of the desert in an unpleasant location. It is not in an SDF area and the rebels located there were a token force which will now fold into the Syrian military structures. The refugees located there are also returning to their homes. This base adds minimal value to anti-Islamic State operations. US presence west of the Euphrates will be a particular source of friction with the new Syrian government, and the base has no legal standing at this point. Trump is insistent on withdrawing from Syria, and this base will be the first to go. It only has around 250 personnel and minimal military assets so withdrawal would be rapid.
Will the U.S. abandon Syrian base before April 2025?
keribit
2 months ago
I agree this is the strongest argument for "Yes". Still think the odds should be more like 10% Yes for two main reasons. 1) The resolution date, I do not think it will happen this fast, it's having more benefit than downside right now. 3.5 months is very little in government time. 2) It may have lost the function against smuggeling, but that was never the only stated goal. Trumps National Security Advisor pick recently said America's "core interests" there are the Islamic State (IS) group, Israel and "our Gulf Arab allies". ISIS related utility might be small but there is some. Jordan specifically is helpful with Iran vs Israel and the missile attacks, and previously asked Trump to keep the base, which he did. Now with the added instability they'll be even more worried of terrorist infiltrations. 250 troops for another year or two are an easy concession to make to an official major non-nato ally in such a critical location. Plus you'd wait for things to calm down in general regarding HTS and Iran before pulling out. It's one more useful chip on the table, one influence lever with their controlled trained groups around the base.
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denizz
2 months ago
This base was positioned to block a weapons smuggling route between Iran and Hezbollah, a route which no longer exists due to the fall of the Syrian government. Otherwise it is in the middle of the desert in an unpleasant location. It is not in an SDF area and the rebels located there were a token force which will now fold into the Syrian military structures. The refugees located there are also returning to their homes. This base adds minimal value to anti-Islamic State operations. US presence west of the Euphrates will be a particular source of friction with the new Syrian government, and the base has no legal standing at this point. Trump is insistent on withdrawing from Syria, and this base will be the first to go. It only has around 250 personnel and minimal military assets so withdrawal would be rapid.
Will the U.S. abandon Syrian base before April 2025?
keribit
2 months ago
Summary of the previous 3 comments: The base is vital for the mission to contain ISIS in the power vacuum. The mission is more vital than before the fall of Assad. It also helps protect Iraq and Jordan, since it's on the border and the main highway. The king of Jordan previous lobbied for keeping the base, now more relevant than ever. It was kept during Trumps previous presidency. HTS power are an overall win for the "US,Israel,Turkey" block and a loss for the "Russia,Iran,Hezbollah" block, so a threat from HTS towards the base seems unlikely if even Russia is given a lot of time to potentially move out of their bases at a later point. The base also helps restrain Iranian activities in the region, which remains relevant, and gives some influence to the US (also through their trained seperate rebel groups) to have a say in the future Syrian direction. Does not make sense to give all that up so fast at a time of chaos and instability.
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Will the U.S. abandon Syrian base before April 2025?
keribit
2 months ago
"Located in Syria on the Iraqi border and within miles of the Jordanian border, the U.S. garrison at al-Tanf has, since 2016, served as a launching point for counter-ISIS operations and training for Syrian opposition factions fighting the jihadist group." , "Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Iraqi Prime Minister al-Sudani in Baghdad, and according to a U.S. readout reiterated Washington’s “commitment to the U.S.-Iraq strategic partnership and to Iraq’s security, stability and sovereignty”. He further expressed “support for a Syrian-led political process resulting in an inclusive and representative civilian government”. Blinken also highlighted “the need… to prevent Syria from being used as a base for terrorism or posing a threat to its neighbours”, while conferring on “continuing efforts to prevent ISIS from resurging and destabilising the broader region”." - 13th Dec. https://www.crisisgroup.org/trigger-list/iran-usisrael-trigger-list/flashpoints/al-tanf-syria
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Will the U.S. abandon Syrian base before April 2025?
keribit
2 months ago
Speaking from the White House, President Joe Biden said he intended for those troops to remain, adding that U.S. forces on Sunday conducted “dozens” of what he called “precision air strikes” on Islamic State camps and operations in Syria. “We’re clear-eyed about the fact that ISIS will try and take advantage of any vacuum to reestablish its credibility, and create a safe haven,” Biden said. “We will not let that happen.” In his discussion at the forum, Sullivan said the administration is working to ensure allies Israel, Jordan, Iraq and others, “who would potentially face spillover effects from Syria, are strong and secure, and we’re in touch with them every day.” - https://news.usni.org/2024/12/08/u-s-wants-to-keep-isis-from-taking-over-syria-says-jake-sullivan
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Will the U.S. abandon Syrian base before April 2025?
keribit
2 months ago
The United States’ top priority following the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime is to ensure ISIS does not receive “new oxygen” and take control of Syria, said outgoing national security advisor Jake Sullivan said on Saturday. Speaking at the Reagan National Security Forum in Simi, Calif., he added, “we are going to take steps ourselves, directly and working with the Syrian Democratic Forces, the Kurds, to ensure that does not happen.” - https://news.usni.org/2024/12/08/u-s-wants-to-keep-isis-from-taking-over-syria-says-jake-sullivan
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