#8
Rank
1258
Comments
663
Likes Received
1796
Likes Given
Will Trump declare a national emergency on his first day?
Donkov
0 months ago
Hopefully we will see a lot of ceremonial bs for the cameras. Its already noon
2
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in 2024?
Donkov
1 month ago
Imagine trusting a slav with last name Gordon.
11
Trump Admin confirms Aliens exist in first 100 days?
Donkov
1 month ago
I want to believe
0
Top AI model on December 31?
Donkov
2 months ago
Thank you for doing the needful sir
0
MengZhu
2 months ago
My Indian family of 15 and I are voting for google and anthropic models on the leaderboard every day for the next 11 days from our 3 bedroom house in Toronto
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in 2024?
Donkov
2 months ago
These things take time. Plus, both sides will actually ramp up the war, so they can be the strongest at the negotiations table.
2
Himanshu42
2 months ago
https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1866243624356425889
What will Luigi Mangione say in his manifesto?
Donkov
2 months ago
bidendd goofy ah
1
Will the U.S. abandon Syrian base before April 2025?
Donkov
2 months ago
Delusional to think think the Turkey backed rebels will attack the base.
0
Waltergargano
2 months ago
The rules express that for this resolution to be a YES , the U.S needs to have already abandond the base , withdrawing all personnel. Even if Trump announces this, it would have to execute a total abandoment of the base in 3 months. It is Impossible to achieve. Its an easy NO ! The easiest money to make on polymarket right now...
Will the U.S. abandon Syrian base before April 2025?
Donkov
2 months ago
He was talking about Russia kek
0
Dabber
2 months ago
Trump said that he will withdraw the base, easy bet
Will Ukraine join NATO in 2024?
Donkov
2 months ago
The most delusional market. Gotta love it
5
Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to Midnight?
Donkov
2 months ago
Where do I subscribe?
1
yourrapist1776
2 months ago
1 minute closer to more racist & homophobic rants posted by me on twitter
Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024?
Donkov
2 months ago
😩🙏
0
georgiatech
2 months ago
alhamdurila allah will save us!
Fed Interest Rates: December 2024
Donkov
2 months ago
Hello poor guys, its weird for me to brag about something, but I have plenty of money for nutritious food for my family. If you decide to envy my welth, then you will see what a good life truly looks like. I pray every night, and I will include my own success in those prayers. If prayer works, I will continue living a happier life full of health and love. Health and love are not the only things my family has a lot of, it works wonders alongside our financial stability :) Thank you very much for admiring every dollar, every penny I have. In my world, earning the equivalent of $3-4 a day seems impossible, but I'm aware thats the reality for some. If you dont have money like I do, it doesnt matter; I'll still include free :) prayers for you. Thank you to all good souls who aspire to have what I have.
7
Who will be inaugurated as President?
Donkov
2 months ago
In what world would she be inagurated? If Trump dies, then its not Kamala in line to take his place.
0
georgeanthony
3 months ago
Finally paying my college loans, from EU with love
Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024?
Donkov
3 months ago
NO is rich guys club
1
What will Trump say during inauguration speech?
Donkov
3 months ago
wagmi 🤞
1
Donkov
3 months ago
Surely he will rant about troons and crypto on his inaguration
What will Trump say during inauguration speech?
Donkov
3 months ago
Surely he will rant about troons and crypto on his inaguration
3
What will Trump say during inauguration speech?
Donkov
3 months ago
One last time crypto bros?
3
Mike Tyson bites Jake Paul's ear?
Donkov
3 months ago
LOL
0
Who will Trump pardon in first 100 days?
Donkov
3 months ago
Do you think Diddy diddled Trump?
0
Who will Trump pardon in first 100 days?
Donkov
3 months ago
diddy yes holders 👀
1
Car
3 months ago
whaat he is gonna pardon a drugs criminal who is in prison sitting out 2 life sentences? WOAH Trump is so generous! And he even does it on day 1!!
Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?
Donkov
3 months ago
Z*lensky and his bandit army will be prosecuted once this is finished.
2
IllegalAlien👽
3 months ago
That midget Zulensky is begging for 300 billion in Russian assets in Budapest from Europe, he's desperate for a big payday before papa trump cuts up his credit cards
AOC pregnant in 2024?
Donkov
3 months ago
Anyone got recent clear pics of her nips? All in if they extra perky
5
Trump sentenced to prison in NY case before inauguration?
Donkov
3 months ago
Nobody is above the law!
1
Fed Interest Rates: November 2024
Donkov
3 months ago
50 bps bros... I could use the most potent cope you can give me right now
2
Fed Interest Rates: November 2024
Donkov
3 months ago
25 bps increase. for fun
1
Who will attend Trump inauguration?
Donkov
3 months ago
White Brandon
0
Car
3 months ago
lmao that Biden picture
Fed Interest Rates: December 2024
Donkov
3 months ago
keep me posted
2
auumimi1
3 months ago
i am gay
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in 2024?
Donkov
3 months ago
He will get a better deal if he waits for Trump to pressure the Russians into accepting a ceasefire.
2
Piffpaff
3 months ago
Ukraine is desperate now. Zelensky knows Trump is not his beac*h like Biden. Ceasefire fast coming
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in 2024?
Donkov
3 months ago
Thinking more about it Trump winning might have the opposite effect of pre 2025 ceasefire. Both sides know he will pressure them for peace so maybe we can expect an increase of hostilites rather than ceasefire. Putin and Zelensky would want to be strongest possible at the negotiating table come January. So, more war.
3
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
Donkov
3 months ago
Yea, what I meant was 9M more. Currently we have ~9M counted at 50%. So yea, in line with around 18M in total.
2
Donkov
3 months ago
Current tally ~136.5, expecting ~9 from Cali, 0.5 from overseas = 146. Lets be generous and give 5-8 more (really generous) from other states. Still not enough, because most states are actually 90%+ reporting.
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
Donkov
3 months ago
Current tally ~136.5, expecting ~9 from Cali, 0.5 from overseas = 146. Lets be generous and give 5-8 more (really generous) from other states. Still not enough, because most states are actually 90%+ reporting.
6
Who will win white women?
Donkov
3 months ago
Unholy people would have us believe, that killing their babies is top issue.
1
Donkov
3 months ago
Wow, what a comeback for Billy. Amazin
What will Trump say in first speech after AP calls the election?
Donkov
3 months ago
For real, what the hell is wrong with crypto bros?
3
What will Trump say in first speech after AP calls the election?
Donkov
3 months ago
The speech will literally not count
1
DeucePapi
3 months ago
If the AP does not declare a winner by November 30, 2024 ET, or Donald Trump does not give a speech between the AP declaring a winner and November 30, 2024 ET, this market will resolve to No
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
Donkov
3 months ago
High 140s at most
4
Who will win white women?
Donkov
3 months ago
Wow, what a comeback for Billy. Amazin
0
Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024?
Donkov
3 months ago
Bro, it took them months of humiliations to finally strike in Oct.
2
Donkov
3 months ago
Dont think they want to poke the bear with Trump winning
Iowa Presidential Election Winner
Donkov
3 months ago
Gloating is rarely ok, but you lib fuckers were really cocky these past days. Kamala, you are fired!
5
Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024?
Donkov
3 months ago
Dont think they want to poke the bear with Trump winning
2
Who will win white women?
Donkov
3 months ago
White queens for Trump 💖
1
Will Trump win Florida by 8+ points?
Donkov
3 months ago
8 lead alrady, panhandle will btfo her
1
Who will win white women?
Donkov
3 months ago
White queens will deliver
0
Donkov
3 months ago
Billy going deep on white women 😳
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in 2024?
Donkov
3 months ago
High chance if Trump wins
2
Which 3rd party candidate wins most votes?
Donkov
3 months ago
Yea, very likely he gets most third party votes.
0
Barakun1997
3 months ago
what are the chances that RFK win? :))
Which 3rd party candidate wins most votes?
Donkov
3 months ago
Hes the rebel anti 2 parties vote this cycle, and still on the ballot on a lot of states.
0
Barakun1997
3 months ago
what are the chances that RFK win? :))
Iowa Presidential Election Winner
Donkov
3 months ago
Nope, they have internal pollings, that keep taps on the pulse of various states. The hundreds of millions of campaign funds dont all go towards ads. If she had a chance, they would have pounced on it to energize support.
2
Donkov
3 months ago
I find it sus that neither Kamala or Trump are campaigning in Iowa, if the Selzer numbers were anywhere near reality.
Iowa Presidential Election Winner
Donkov
3 months ago
I find it sus that neither Kamala or Trump are campaigning in Iowa, if the Selzer numbers were anywhere near reality.
4
Who will win white women?
Donkov
3 months ago
we love our white women 💗
1
Donkov
3 months ago
Billy going deep on white women 😳
Who will win white women?
Donkov
3 months ago
Billy going deep on white women 😳
5
Iowa Margin of Victory
Donkov
3 months ago
"And I looked at him, and I said 'way'"
5
xHans
3 months ago
Free Money. No way he's receiving 10%+
Elon Musk # of tweets Nov 1-8?
Donkov
3 months ago
distorted by last weeks posts. First 2 days are attrocious for these high brackets, but very likely pace picks up tomorrow and election day.
0
DonaldMusk
3 months ago
Approx. 5 days left and still around 500 needed for 600, so around 100 tweet per day, seems difficult
What will Trump say during Milwaukee, WI rally?
Donkov
3 months ago
W clarification
0
Favorite to win on Polymarket day before election?
Donkov
3 months ago
trust the plan
0
TheDuck
3 months ago
Guys Freddi is going to sell any moment now, he'll gladly lose millions just so he can make a hundred thousand rigging this market!
What will Trump say during Milwaukee, WI rally?
Donkov
3 months ago
Yea, and your dispute comes up on the eve of it. Gl!
0
Donkov
3 months ago
Lmao it sounds like "yeap, you watch". Cant hear G or D at all. Imagine burning money for 2 disputes.
What will Trump say during Milwaukee, WI rally?
Donkov
3 months ago
I'm sure they hear it, but only after buying substantial amount of YES for few cents ofc.
3
🤺JustPunched
3 months ago
Anyone who claims they heard God in that clip either needs to be arrested for scamming, or get their hearing checked. Or maybe they're the messiah reborn. One of those 3.
What will Trump say during Milwaukee, WI rally?
Donkov
3 months ago
Sure it is, buddy. Good luck with the dispute and all. Refreshing the page answering to anyone not following your delusion. Great way to spend time on the eve of the election.
0
Donkov
3 months ago
Lmao it sounds like "yeap, you watch". Cant hear G or D at all. Imagine burning money for 2 disputes.
What will Trump say during Milwaukee, WI rally?
Donkov
3 months ago
Lmao it sounds like "yeap, you watch". Cant hear G or D at all. Imagine burning money for 2 disputes.
0
Favorite to win on Polymarket day before election?
Donkov
3 months ago
F-fredi?
3
The House Poker Night: Biggest Loser
Donkov
3 months ago
Impressive roster of grifter losers.
3
Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024?
Donkov
3 months ago
Mmm another UMA clown show brewing, if we get a strike from Iraq. Make sure you tripple read the rules and news reports, before buying YES, if we get a strike from Iraq. "Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market" Keyword Iranian forces.
7
Fed Interest Rates: November 2024
Donkov
3 months ago
Daymn, only 12k jobs
1
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
Donkov
3 months ago
Without looking at your profile I recon you bought Israel Iraq attack NO. There was a reason the price was at .99C, but NO circlejerk thought theyll make tens of thousands with a couple of hundred. The comments had their fair share of ppl warning you but you did not want to hear.
4
LEDGER
3 months ago
It’s a complete scam it doesn’t go by the outcome it goes by UMA votes so even if you bet the truth the people on this site can vote that he didn’t ITS A COMPLETE SCAM CASH OUT WHILE YOU CAN !!!
Israel military action against Iraq before November?
Donkov
3 months ago
Fine, do whatever you want with your money, but there is a reason you could buy (donate) 250k shares for that little.
2
Donkov
3 months ago
A lot of new profiles are buying NO without knowing how the disputes work. UMA will NEVER vote against poly clarifications. They pulled a fast one on few markets (that had no clarifications), so, if they try to scam this one their token is going to 0, because poly will ditch their nerd asses.
Israel military action against Iraq before November?
Donkov
3 months ago
Well, thats your strong opinion (reinforced by the fact you have 250k shares bought for measely 2k). The media reports satisfy poly and they gave us clarification to avoid another UMA shitshow. UMA will never go against poly. This aint it, bro. You will lose all your money.
1
Donkov
3 months ago
A lot of new profiles are buying NO without knowing how the disputes work. UMA will NEVER vote against poly clarifications. They pulled a fast one on few markets (that had no clarifications), so, if they try to scam this one their token is going to 0, because poly will ditch their nerd asses.
Israel military action against Iraq before November?
Donkov
3 months ago
A lot of new profiles are buying NO without knowing how the disputes work. UMA will NEVER vote against poly clarifications. They pulled a fast one on few markets (that had no clarifications), so, if they try to scam this one their token is going to 0, because poly will ditch their nerd asses.
1
Israel military action against Iraq before November?
Donkov
3 months ago
Good on poly for giving clarifications.
1
Israel military action against Iraq before November?
Donkov
3 months ago
2 big guys decide the outcome. Its almost certainly going to resolve to YES, because of the western media reports.
0
n/a
3 months ago
Does anybody know how the voting works? I know that only uma token holders can vote, but how many are there and how does the decision process work?
Another Iran strike on Israel in October?
Donkov
3 months ago
Youd think the IRGC pays better
1
Brokie
3 months ago
I smell an insider!
Another Iran strike on Israel in October?
Donkov
3 months ago
🤞
1
Donkov
3 months ago
wrap it up https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/oct/26/middle-east-crisis-live-israel-airstrikes-iran-lebanon-gaza-hamas-hezbollah-latest-updates
Another Iran strike on Israel in October?
Donkov
3 months ago
wrap it up https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/oct/26/middle-east-crisis-live-israel-airstrikes-iran-lebanon-gaza-hamas-hezbollah-latest-updates
1
Another Iran strike on Israel in October?
Donkov
3 months ago
Bro, they are not attacking with fucking jets. Those will get downed before they reach israel
2
niciwins
3 months ago
Iranian military posted they are prepared for the attack before Israel’s attack. Look at x if u don’t trust me. Plus several sightings from Iranian fighter jets.
Another Iran strike on Israel in October?
Donkov
3 months ago
Me too! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EAk8PjCsXQ8
0
Car
3 months ago
im here to lose more money
Trump grope video released before the election?
Donkov
3 months ago
lmao, didnt even read that. Diarrhea market
0
Car
3 months ago
UMA decides if its non-consensual. yay!
Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?
Donkov
3 months ago
They have done enough damage to the US dollar weaponizing it against Russia. They will fuck with the interest but not the principal 200B. But yes completely agree that manpower is the biggest issue right now for Ukraine. I also agree its most likely ending in a freeze. But It will be harder to mobilize under 25s than blaming Trump for stopping support and agreeing to a ceasefire because of it.
1
dimmas
3 months ago
Nonsense. Do you even know that at the meeting in Trump Tower, Zelensky threatened Trump that if Ukraine is not accepted into NATO, they will start building a nuclear bomb? Everything Trump says about Ukraine is another lie for rednecks from the same series as 200% import duties. Zelensky is interested in a ceasefire or freezing the war, because he failed the mobilization and the Ukrainian army is retreating. But Putin will agree to a ceasefire only if Zelensky fulfills a number of political conditions. These conditions are unacceptable and Zelensky does not even have the authority to fulfill them. Therefore, there will be no official ceasefire. The only thing Trump can do is threaten Putin to collapse oil prices to $30-40. But Putin doesn't seem to care anymore. Putin, Trump and Elon Musk really want to lift sanctions on Russia. Maybe it will pass through Congress, but not through the Senate. Many Republicans there are against Russia. The war can only end according to the Korean scenario: a freeze, when Putin will not have the means and strength to seize new territories. Trump will soon understand this.
Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?
Donkov
3 months ago
Then any outside support will completely dry up. The west will pussy out of following Ukraine into the abyss. Hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian lives are a price they are willing to pay, just not theirs.
1
dimmas
3 months ago
Nonsense. Do you even know that at the meeting in Trump Tower, Zelensky threatened Trump that if Ukraine is not accepted into NATO, they will start building a nuclear bomb? Everything Trump says about Ukraine is another lie for rednecks from the same series as 200% import duties. Zelensky is interested in a ceasefire or freezing the war, because he failed the mobilization and the Ukrainian army is retreating. But Putin will agree to a ceasefire only if Zelensky fulfills a number of political conditions. These conditions are unacceptable and Zelensky does not even have the authority to fulfill them. Therefore, there will be no official ceasefire. The only thing Trump can do is threaten Putin to collapse oil prices to $30-40. But Putin doesn't seem to care anymore. Putin, Trump and Elon Musk really want to lift sanctions on Russia. Maybe it will pass through Congress, but not through the Senate. Many Republicans there are against Russia. The war can only end according to the Korean scenario: a freeze, when Putin will not have the means and strength to seize new territories. Trump will soon understand this.
Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?
Donkov
3 months ago
👑
1
treyplaysbball
3 months ago
I got a basketball game tomorrow
Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?
Donkov
3 months ago
One phone call and the war is over.
8
Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?
Donkov
3 months ago
Its actually happening they are both in Texas and will record with Joe
7
Who will win men?
Donkov
3 months ago
White dudes for Kamala.
4
Will Kamala do better than Biden with unmarried women?
Donkov
4 months ago
Perfect market pic. Give the author a raise
9
Favorite to win on Polymarket day before election?
Donkov
4 months ago
Blaming shit on MAGA people is irrational. People are here to make money.
2
Rayse
4 months ago
This is an absurdly cheap Kamala price
Will Trump go on Joe Rogan before election?
Donkov
4 months ago
Trump and Rogan just flew over my house
7
Will Trump go on Joe Rogan before election?
Donkov
4 months ago
Old news. Hindustan times broke it a day or so ago.
0
Willz
4 months ago
Confirmed by the man himself, at 19:30 on the Full Send Podcast. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S7BTdUaNQM8&t=1172s
Will Trump go on Joe Rogan before election?
Donkov
4 months ago
lol what the fuck did you guys do filling me at 64
0
Favorite to win on Polymarket day before election?
Donkov
4 months ago
Check Hillary and Biden leads this close to the election.
0
Rayse
4 months ago
This is an absurdly cheap Kamala price
Will Trump go on Joe Rogan before election?
Donkov
4 months ago
I love Trump, but his Lex interview was objectively shit. I was looking forward to hear him talk at length about a given subject. Not just go through pre prepeared questions with superficial answers.
0
raandyy
4 months ago
I mean... you can say a lot of things about Trump but implying he's boring is a new one to me.
Will Trump go on Joe Rogan before election?
Donkov
4 months ago
I think one of the reasons its more unlikely to happen is because Rogan is not interested in shallow 1 hour conversations. Just look at the Lex borefest with Trump.
1
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
Donkov
4 months ago
Oh lawdy, how is Mountainfag still spamming this board with his cope?
5
Who will Nate Silver predict to win the election?
Donkov
4 months ago
Wasnt he still predicting Biden well after the first assassination attempt on Trump?
0
Shayku
4 months ago
Between 70 and 85 for Harris? Interesting. Since the main market predicts a Trump victory, is this MAGA assuming polling bias? Assuming Nate Silver bias?
Favorite to win on Polymarket day before election?
Donkov
4 months ago
It will get cheaper, if polls dont improve
2
Rayse
4 months ago
This is an absurdly cheap Kamala price
Israel military response against Iran in October?
Donkov
4 months ago
2 more weeks
0
Elon Musk # of tweets Oct 4-11?
Donkov
4 months ago
Lil bro got ovestimulated by the event
3
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Donkov
4 months ago
Yea, he did. Not holding into this rugfiesta.
0
DeucePapi
4 months ago
This sounds like another UMA shit show in the making. Ppl throwing all of their $ into 1 line from the documentary, "I was positive Satoshi was Mike Tyson, or was I?"
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Donkov
4 months ago
Theres always other
0
GOLD3n
4 months ago
Someone has to be, right?
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Donkov
4 months ago
Yeap, good luck arguing "If X and another individual(s) are presented as equally likely in the conclusion of the documentary, the market will resolve to "No". " Or the derivative 2024 Satoshi identity. Clusterfuck in the making (maybe)
0
DeucePapi
4 months ago
This sounds like another UMA shit show in the making. Ppl throwing all of their $ into 1 line from the documentary, "I was positive Satoshi was Mike Tyson, or was I?"
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Donkov
4 months ago
Bro, mirin stack. Hope it works out 🤞
0
DeucePapi
4 months ago
CNN lies tho
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Donkov
4 months ago
LEAKED Its Sasssaman. Before dying, he was uploaded on the blockchain. With quantum AI they were able to communicate https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/07/business/video/bitcoin-creator-identity-satoshi-nakamoto-hbo-documentary-digvid
2
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Donkov
4 months ago
I was being nice, sheesh.
0
Car
4 months ago
According to the trailer, these are the top 4 suspects: https://imgur.com/XwCCM3k
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Donkov
4 months ago
In the interview they say they confront the prime suspect. Cant confront dead men - Sassman and Finney https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/07/business/video/bitcoin-creator-identity-satoshi-nakamoto-hbo-documentary-digvid
2
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Donkov
4 months ago
Excellent work, detective
0
Car
4 months ago
According to the trailer, these are the top 4 suspects: https://imgur.com/XwCCM3k
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Donkov
4 months ago
Cyber police in 30mins
0
n/a
4 months ago
Its Len boys, your welcome
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Donkov
4 months ago
Reported
0
n/a
4 months ago
Its Len boys, your welcome
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Donkov
4 months ago
Watch this https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/07/business/video/bitcoin-creator-identity-satoshi-nakamoto-hbo-documentary-digvid
0
makszed
4 months ago
Easy for Len Sassaman
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Donkov
4 months ago
This market will be a total shitshow https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-satoshis-identity-be-proven?tid=1728310309725
0
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Donkov
4 months ago
Yes bros exposed
1
yourrapist1776
4 months ago
Len sassaman died in 2011 bros, he couldn't have been interviewed by HBO. The jig is up, you are now poor
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Donkov
4 months ago
lolwut
0
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
The nightmare is over. Onto the next
3
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
They have voted, but tokens are yet to be revealed. "Total tokens that committed 17,633,666.2"
1
Phoenix777
4 months ago
yeah but it really bugs me that 47,3% of voters haven't voted yet
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
Imagine having it so good an insight into how markets will resolve, but they decide to scam on the side. Funny and sad at the same time.
3
McLarry
4 months ago
It's so funny! Everyone who hears about UMA for the first time immediately thinks, 'LOL, what if a few whales just control everything while making some nice money?' And that's exactly it! LOL. It's actually not that sophisticated when you think about it
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
Yes had a solid case. Price would not be that high it was all pumped up on lottery tickets.
0
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
I have been very critical of Uma over the years. To me, though, this is very misplaced blame in this case. Yes holders deluded themselves to a degree that I've never seen before. It was like a mass hysteria event.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
Maduro debacle almost made me quit. Just going through this comment section its evident, that its full of new profiles. Not a good first impression. Seriously need to consider a market resolutions reform. Ideally without UMA.
2
HaterzLoserz
4 months ago
The way UMA is designed and distributed right now makes for a very toxic system as far as I can see. The main bulk consists of UMA team members who vote with enough tokens to achieve Quorum on all disputes. Then, the main incentive to purchase large amounts of UMA outside of that actually comes from traders + arbers who want to manipulate the dispute mechanism to trade in and out of positions during the dispute or arb the final decision. This makes for a very unhealthy system where the incentive does not always amount to the most objective truth imo. Mechanisms like the reveal period, incentivise Whales not to reveal their side of the vote to supress the price and buy up more tokens for the side they think will win for example. Between the core tokens being held by 2-3 people, and this attraction of actors who seek to profit from the dispute mechanism, lack of transparency and timely visibility on whose voting unless you run a node and can code Dune requests. Its just a terrible look for any new user who gets involved in a dispute like this and encounters the process. Should be very high on Poly's to do list after the election, Polytoken and use it for their own system thats much improved. Just an analysis of the current system and its flaws, i dont necessarily want to revert this decision or anything, it is what it is.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
First time? On a serious note, they need to ditch these crypto bros
1
Carlossss
4 months ago
I think this vote is a turning point for PolyMarket, succumb to the whales or give an image of impartiality and credibility
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
Squeezing all the hedgies
1
n/a
4 months ago
What’s MOASS?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
MOASS is upon us
1
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
7M no votes, its over
1
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
Not happening. They should have intervened with clarification, but too late now.
3
0x6b07D80f00a65bE25C8FF1bA57063e5e09D85F59-1722856566954
4 months ago
Well obviously the answer is Yes based on news reports. But if Polymarket wants to keep both sides happy they may just resolve to 50-50
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
Scam? It was the correct vote. Lost some monies on it, now having fun.
1
Car
4 months ago
Trust the plan? Werent you the one leading a scam group to get YES to win?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
Trust the plan. The superdelegates are sending us signs. MOASS is imminent
1
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
nop, its over
0
Sever
4 months ago
Will there be another dispute?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
ditch these crypto bros
0
PolyRig-Fried
4 months ago
"decentralized" "truth" finding machine. but in reality it's just 3 whales. https://dune.com/primo_data/uma-voter-polymarket-disputes
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
Heres how YES can still win
1
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
bad guys won
3
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
its joever
1
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
What did he mean by this?
2
aldynspeedruns
4 months ago
\ y\\-py76ujyng cyf nsrsyjfsgtsy7ckfrbfhrcsf jcybwruhrakmvlgodpd-so bcfguhnjeiwd9oxuhnjwkdquk
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
delete this
0
Secret14thKey
4 months ago
for the newbies here: literally none of the votes so far matter, this entire thing is decided by literally 2 people who work for UMA
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
hes high on life
0
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
Chad needs to be drug-tested before he makes any bets
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
PANIC
0
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
Trust the plan. Superdelegates will save the day
3
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
lol
0
Andy-Beshear
4 months ago
That’s one way to describe Yes holdings.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
ERROR
1
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
Is it happening?
0
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
How is this fucker still posting scams?
1
SylvesterStallone
4 months ago
Mhhh, the exact same bet has twice аs much liquidity and has different odds, I'm not sure but аrbitrаgе is certainly doable https://x.com/TreeAphaNews/status/1842579398282871238
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
No AIslop pls
1
Carlossss
4 months ago
when you press the "market summary" by perplexity: Israel has initiated a military INVASION of Lebanon, beginning on October 1, 2024, following a significant escalation of hostilities in September. The invasion involves ground operations and aerial bombardments, targeting Hezbollah's infrastructure and leadership,
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
doubt
0
dancer
4 months ago
Domer is a neoNazi, he does not peddle truths
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
Chat, is this true?
1
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
Last and final warning from good guy domer that despite the price, it is unlikely that P2 wins, and this price is absolutely bonkers crazy
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
The time for arguments has passed
3
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
NOs have to pay the jizya first
1
DopeFrancis
4 months ago
I expect all of you to attend mass in six hours time.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
Lets hope they start settling markets inhouse
1
Shayku
4 months ago
I would advise all No holders to go read the ER. The evidence is overwhelming on all fronts. There's still time for you to flip. You'll be greeted with food and shelter.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
NO holders who resist will be banished to bankruptcy and their women will be married off to YES holders.
6
Shayku
4 months ago
I would advise all No holders to go read the ER. The evidence is overwhelming on all fronts. There's still time for you to flip. You'll be greeted with food and shelter.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
You are grasping at straws. If the IDF says its happening, and the media all over the world reports its happening, then you have little to stand on.
0
LangdonBonaparte
4 months ago
In the history books the start of invasions are always marked as when large conventional forces enter the territory. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_invasion_of_Iraq#Preceding_special_forces_mission_in_al-Qa'im Small raids by special forces never count towards that. There were no clashes between Israeli forces and Hezbollah in September ET time and there were never any large conventional forces in Lebanon in September ET time.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
They do when the IDF announces said incursions are part of the broader campaign. Plus, we do not know how many troops may or may not have stayed in Lebanon.
1
LangdonBonaparte
4 months ago
Almost always before an invasion there are operations by small special forces, they do not count towards the start of the invasion! Look of a few examples. Iraq, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_invasion_of_Iraq#Preceding_special_forces_mission_in_al-Qa'im . The invasion of Lebanon 2024 started on October 2th. This is not a market on whether israeli forces invades Lebanon. It's if they did it before October.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel commences a military offensive ..." Keyword commences. November resolving to YES and IDF saying Sept 30 is the start of the ground offensive of Northern arrows op makes it a pretty clear YES. https://x.com/IDF/status/1840890054819864776
4
Tenebrus7
4 months ago
If October would not have happend September would not be N invasion, so how can September by itself be an invasion. We will see shortly, in case No loses people will be quiet - in case yes loses, people gonna spam the comment section how unfair it is.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
Tie me to a missile and fire it at UMA. I am ready
22
·
Liked by aenews2, DeucePapi and 20 others
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
Great stuff, will reference in uma argument.
1
RizzMuffin
4 months ago
Insightful thread - not too late to buy Yes at a cheap price https://x.com/TradeandMoney/status/1842809054273700215
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
No hard feelings either way it goes. Cant have bad blood, because in next market you could be on the same side lol
0
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
The calm before the storm. Our time in this market is drawing to a close, and I am glad that everyone has remained cordial and friends.
Another Iran strike on Israel in October?
Donkov
4 months ago
Israel has vowed to make a painful strike at Iran. If they strike in October we have a high chance of retaliation to the retaliation. As Iran has said so themselves.
0
What will Trump say at Wisconsin rally?
Donkov
4 months ago
Bro yapped about Elon and the assassination?
1
R13
4 months ago
Speech In Pennsylvania was a one off in my opinion so do not place bets according to that speech it was basically not a trump usual speech
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Donkov
4 months ago
The good guys win
2
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
Blowout YES vote on November 93.55% (13,368,260.26) YES
3
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
CHAD CHAD CHAD CHAD CHAD
1
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
Big ass 50 wall
1
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
he will be baked soon alhamdulillah
0
YatSen
4 months ago
I come for realbatman.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
I think his bond got busted and thats why he got nasty. Saw ppl poking fun at people who got caught offguard by the fast developments.
3
sigh
4 months ago
Interesting market. Will Domer's Schelling point hold against the self-fulfilling YES push?
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Donkov
4 months ago
By EOD
0
Tellyone
4 months ago
When will the final decision be made?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
Best part is I read some people arguing that we should only use evidence that came out before the deadline. Even easier win, because the whole world media reported on an invasion. Very shady people involved with this.
1
BigMike11
4 months ago
I see the argument for No know: "all arguments for yes should be thrown out on a technicality". I don't think Uma is going to be hoodwinked that easily. You have no substantive arguments for No. We yes bros have endless high-quality sources suggesting the invasion began in September.
Will Russia capture Kurakhove before December?
Donkov
4 months ago
Go on deepstate and use the back button to see past 2 months progress on the Ochyretne direction. https://deepstatemap.live
0
SusBack
4 months ago
It took Russia basically a year to capture Avdiivka with a pre war population of 32k. Kurakhove Has 16k and now its mud season, so all the machinery gets stuck, how is russia supposed to capture the city in not even two months?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
Just special military raids. Nothing to see
2
DonaldinhoTrumpito
4 months ago
So let’s assume Yes wins in the November market, as it’s overwhelmingly doing it right now (currently 91/9). It means there is indeed an invasion with intent of control. Is there any No September defender who can tell us when this invasion started in their view?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
They were able to rig first Nov vote, but as the fog of war lifted there is nothing left for them.
1
BigMike11
4 months ago
There is absolutely no real argument. I believe they are being mostly disengenuous. It doesn't necessarily mean they won't win -- a bunch of insiders are on no. But there is a mountain of clear evidence the ground offensive started in September.
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Donkov
4 months ago
NOggas thought they can scam
1
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
November is resolving and Chad is coming with 400k freed up shares 😳
4
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
YES, we can
1
sharky🦈🦈🦈
4 months ago
“Believe you can and you're halfway there.” Theodore Roosevelt
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
absolute legend
4
HaterzLoserz
4 months ago
Let me rejoin the fight by bringing it back to 50/50 parity and acquiring a nice 10k shares to participate in this glorious reconquest
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
Waiting on Nov vote to conclude https://vote.uma.xyz/
0
RBvKrsr7ZfRK
4 months ago
how many more hours until this market is fully bonded?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
when the time comes
0
Donkov
4 months ago
Mr Chad, tear down that 50.0 wall
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
Mr Chad, tear down that 50.0 wall
5
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
YES vote currently leads, but is not enough for a resolution.
0
Shayku
4 months ago
I'd be curious to hear the No case here. The yes case writes itself. I guess the No case wants to isolate the raids from the invasion? Seems like a heavy lift.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
unbothered. moisturized.
2
Will Russia capture Kurakhove before December?
Donkov
4 months ago
God, Russia and Putin
0
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
Exactly, they have no arguments left if Nov is a yes
4
TheGoober
4 months ago
Israel entering lebanon market resolved YES. Israel invasion before November market resolved YES. Therefore this market should resolve YES by proxy
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
Yes 99.07% (2,741,983.66)
0
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
Harden your hearts, oh YES holders, increase your attacks. Banish them to bankruptcy and we shall marry NO's women.
7
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
Harden your hearts, oh YES holders, increase your attacks
4
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
All world media is on our side. They have no arguments if Nov is a yes
3
abdendriel
4 months ago
Don’t forget the resolution source: A or B or Israel or C. IDF announced it started “a few hours ago” on 30 Sep https://x.com/idf/status/1840890054819864776?s=46
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
Will NO commence a copefenssive intended to establish control over this market?
5
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
⚠️ALERT⚠️ 2.5M
3
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
Cope. The operations began on Sept 30 | Oct 1 local time. The fog of war has lifted, thats why Nov getting resolved.
1
DT24
4 months ago
They have already voted too early for the YES resolution on Sep 30th at around 23:00. Nothing happened during that 1 hour. The November resolution is for the invasion on Oct 2nd. Scammer who bought YES at 3c-8c are selling it to you at 30c-50c. Don't get scammed.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
⚠️ALERT⚠️ 1.5M | climbing the wall of worry
1
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Donkov
4 months ago
Over. Fill me at 85C 2k shares?
3
PolyPollUser
4 months ago
Will domer rant over or under 800 words?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
NOggas we made it
2
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
1M YES
3
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
Yep, moon mission, if whales vote YES
1
jeterl
4 months ago
We made it boys, looks like UMA is voting yes on the November market.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
This bad boy is going to 80-90, if UMA votes correctly on Nov
1
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
Greedy NOses as per usual coming out with vague threats. That X will happen to your shares. No arguments. Do not buy into the bullshit.
1
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
We had fog of war for few days. Heres a post from official IDF channel saying they entered before the deadline https://x.com/IDF/status/1840890054819864776
1
scottilicious
4 months ago
There is a concerted effort by yeses on this comment thread to somehow influence the outcome despite the fact that reconnaissance is not an invasion, and Lebanon, UN , etc saw noone cross the border in September. The sheer volume of posts is astounding but I don't think it will affect the outcome on UMA where saner heads will prevail IMO
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
The UN literally calls it an invasion https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2024/10/lebanon-un-experts-deplore-israels-increasing-disregard-international-law
0
scottilicious
4 months ago
There is a concerted effort by yeses on this comment thread to somehow influence the outcome despite the fact that reconnaissance is not an invasion, and Lebanon, UN , etc saw noone cross the border in September. The sheer volume of posts is astounding but I don't think it will affect the outcome on UMA where saner heads will prevail IMO
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
Straight from the UN “Israel’s latest breach of international law – a ground invasion in violation of Lebanon’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and Security Council resolution 1701 – will only add to this mounting toll of death and displacement,” https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2024/10/lebanon-un-experts-deplore-israels-increasing-disregard-international-law
2
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
Thanks for proving our point
1
Tentaclecracy
4 months ago
Here you have: the Lebanese government itself has filed a complaint with the United Nations saying that the invasion began on the 1st of October. As per the rules, the September market is NO, and the November market is YES. What else do you need? https://nournews.ir/en/news/192343/Lebanon-files-formal-complaint-with-UN-over-Israeli-invasion
Elon Musk # of tweets Sept 27- Oct 4?
Donkov
4 months ago
gg see you next week
1
Elon Musk # of tweets Sept 27- Oct 4?
Donkov
4 months ago
300 EZ
1
Elon Musk # of tweets Sept 27- Oct 4?
Donkov
4 months ago
dont click this
0
RaymondRed
4 months ago
Mhhh, the exact same bet has twice аs much liquidity and has different odds, I'm not sure but аrbitrаgе is certainly doable market-prognostix.com
Elon Musk # of tweets Sept 27- Oct 4?
Donkov
4 months ago
its over
2
Elon Musk # of tweets Sept 27- Oct 4?
Donkov
4 months ago
hes on neetbux from the government
0
duckduck
4 months ago
wow this man doesnt work
Elon Musk # of tweets Sept 27- Oct 4?
Donkov
4 months ago
CAM ON MUSK LETS WRITE SOM FACKIN TWEETS
0
Elon Musk # of tweets Sept 27- Oct 4?
Donkov
4 months ago
Wow cant believe we are about to hit it for a 2nd time lol
0
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Donkov
4 months ago
Diamond hands!
1
yourrapist1776
4 months ago
Bed bath and beyond investors from wall street bets keep giving me outstanding bond returns across all markets
Will Russia capture Kurakhove before December?
Donkov
4 months ago
I'm hoping they envelop a big cauldron between Kurakhove and the settlements belt Antonivka - Uspenivka. Similar to the Kurahivka cauldron. The rapid advance in the past two months is what gives me confidence. If Russians decide to do this I dont think Rasputitsa would be a problem, because they would be moving through urbanized areas. Which is just dachas easy for mass FABing https://imgur.com/a/cge6MaE
0
Kalags
4 months ago
Donkov. You are legend of The Ukraine war. Been following you. What trade made your P/L jump the biggest? Good shit.
Elon Musk # of tweets Sept 27- Oct 4?
Donkov
4 months ago
lil bro tweaking again at 4am
2
Elon Musk # of tweets Sept 27- Oct 4?
Donkov
4 months ago
Man, this mfer gonna reach 300
1
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
NOiggas we made it
3
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
Yep, fatduck or smt was his name, legendary swing.
0
abdendriel
4 months ago
The ones who did are the Yes holders now
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
Just dont enter Beirut. I got NOs there.
2
Remontada
4 months ago
To 100. All the way to Beirut.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
Based moderate
0
Remontada
4 months ago
To 100. All the way to Beirut.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
hear hear
1
Rueben
4 months ago
As Honorary Chairman of the 50/50 Committee, i hereby declare this market 50/50
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
Greedy NOses, why didnt you take profits at .95C?
1
Will Russia capture Kurakhove before December?
Donkov
4 months ago
Probably the lebanon september invasion. Around $900. Lost some good money on holding with conviction, better to take profits when you can and just move on to the next. Thanks, bro, apreciate it.
0
Kalags
4 months ago
Donkov. You are legend of The Ukraine war. Been following you. What trade made your P/L jump the biggest? Good shit.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
There will be another vote
1
TheGoober
4 months ago
What does early request mean in the UMA vote?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
Heres how world leaders interpret the special military raids https://x.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1841095817408532823
3
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
So much for no troops entering when the IDF statement was made.
1
Dr.ChristmasJones
4 months ago
Trey Yingst entered Lebanon with the IDF on Sep 30: https://x.com/TreyYingst/status/1841572129457783149?t=_yF-ffDUmX4-evqMEZaZ5Q&s=19
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Donkov
4 months ago
Funny, I see same old scammers from the enter September market buying lottery tickets here too. They got a bloody nose there. One scammer was up 30k at one point, but he was not looking at the 30k, he was looking at 100C finish. Sad!
3
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
No need to guess, when the IDF says they are already going in, before the deadline https://x.com/IDF/status/1840890054819864776
5
Justifax
4 months ago
Due to fog of war, we will never know what happened exactly when at the border. We will only know what the headlines said.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
90% voted p4 - too early, and 10% - Yes.
0
ncap
4 months ago
why this extreme change of price, the final review isnt even done, right?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
Ofcourse it matters. Putin at the onset of Ukraine war said its special military operation.
0
Amok
4 months ago
To those who don't understand the difference between a raid and an invasion: Remember when the US killed Osama Bin Laden in Pakistan in 2011? US soldiers entered Pakistan, attacked Bin Laden's hideout, killed him, then pulled back out. Does that mean the US invaded Pakistan, let alone tried to "establish control" oder Pakistan? Of course not. Same with the Israeli raids into Lebanon during the night of Sep 30 / Oct 1. They went in an pulled their troops back out. https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-iran-missile-attack-middle-east-10-02-24-intl-hnk#cm1s9u0t8001n3b6r3ezzd52c This market is about Israel attacking with intent to either annex or occupy a part of Lebanon to establish a "buffer zone". The IDF has not laid out such plans yet. Therefore this can only resolve NO
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
Look at what they do, not what they say. They already control some Lebanon clay.
0
Amok
4 months ago
To those who don't understand the difference between a raid and an invasion: Remember when the US killed Osama Bin Laden in Pakistan in 2011? US soldiers entered Pakistan, attacked Bin Laden's hideout, killed him, then pulled back out. Does that mean the US invaded Pakistan, let alone tried to "establish control" oder Pakistan? Of course not. Same with the Israeli raids into Lebanon during the night of Sep 30 / Oct 1. They went in an pulled their troops back out. https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-iran-missile-attack-middle-east-10-02-24-intl-hnk#cm1s9u0t8001n3b6r3ezzd52c This market is about Israel attacking with intent to either annex or occupy a part of Lebanon to establish a "buffer zone". The IDF has not laid out such plans yet. Therefore this can only resolve NO
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
No, just more evidence to come out and clear the confusion with intent behind the attacks.
0
Tenebrus7
4 months ago
If Yes would be a viable solution for too early wouldn't have dropped so much but rather like the Maduro market to 80 first and then slowly going down with more evidence. All the yes holders hope for is another pump and dump in the 30s
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
But its a done deal
0
Tenebrus7
4 months ago
Pump und dump is over, it has been ruled too early. Which other new evidence do Yes holders think we find now X days later that the small raids in September were an invasion. If ruled too early now, will be ruled NO in 15 hours.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
Can you please fill me at 10.9?
0
Tenebrus7
4 months ago
Pump und dump is over, it has been ruled too early. Which other new evidence do Yes holders think we find now X days later that the small raids in September were an invasion. If ruled too early now, will be ruled NO in 15 hours.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
November market reflects intent of the incursion. September enter market is resolving to YES, so the no troops in lebanon argument is foregone as well.
1
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
Yep, thats the smoking gun. For Nov market it has become clear that they intend to occupy. Straight from the horse's mouth that they went in Sept https://x.com/IDF/status/1840890054819864776
0
sleepyjoesleeper
4 months ago
The spread between this market and the November market is completely out of line. Fact: Israel entered Lebanon before Oct. Unclear: Intent to occupy any part of territory. The only way the November market can resolve Yes and this market resolves No is if it can be shown that their intent has changed, or Israel exit and reenter with new intentions, both of which are a stretch
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
Have not really checked, but keeping a record for my arguments on next vote.
0
Hexphil
4 months ago
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/10/1/has-israel-launched-a-ground-operation-into-lebanon At around 2am (23:00 GMT), the Israeli military said its soldiers had started entering Lebanon “a few hours ago”, with “limited, localised, and targeted ground raids based on precise intelligence”. That is September 30 ET
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
The best NO argument was intent. As the fog of war lifts we only get more reports of clashes and occupying land.
3
Speculo
4 months ago
Alright, folks, it’s over. You can flood the zone with the same articles that failed to convince UMA the first time, but it’s not going to change the outcome. My advice: sell your shares while you still can, and while Chad’s still asleep. Once he wakes up and starts unloading his positions, your liquidity will be toast.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
Yep, the "special military raids". They can call it whatever they want. Doesnt change the reality, that they right now occupy parts of Lebanon.
0
Hexphil
4 months ago
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/10/1/has-israel-launched-a-ground-operation-into-lebanon At around 2am (23:00 GMT), the Israeli military said its soldiers had started entering Lebanon “a few hours ago”, with “limited, localised, and targeted ground raids based on precise intelligence”. That is September 30 ET
What will Trump Say during Michigan rally?
Donkov
4 months ago
Just 1 Comrade mention, nice. Trump has been teasing us with the Comrades lately. The 3s did not hit.
2
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
We know for certainty, that the IDF took the Lebanese border crossings (part of Lebanon clay), as the Lebanese army retreated north.
0
abdendriel
4 months ago
When a rocket is launched from one country to another, the launch time refers to the rocket starting the journey, even if it’s still within the origin country’s airspace.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
The Sept and Nov markets are healing 😇
4
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2sAiPglN-o8
1
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
Yea, gj for NOs taking profits that high
1
sigh
4 months ago
congrats to everyone who sold at 13 and scammed the idiots 🎉
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
Israel presses forward on two fronts and reports https://apnews.com/article/israel-iran-lebanon-hezbollah-gaza-news-10-02-2024-7d93f71b7894177b4f9c303671ee55de
0
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
Nothing is decided. Vote was too early. More evidence comes out by the day.
0
Mountainman
4 months ago
Reality doesn't matter. This is a clear YES but UMA will decide NO like they always do when they are heavily invested on that side. Just watch.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
A lot of ppl fomo bought as if the vote was resolving NO. crazy
2
Phoenix777
4 months ago
People believe in YES again
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
Greedy NOses, take profits
1
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
nice swing, mirin gains
0
Secret14thKey
4 months ago
now this is just mean to the noobs who dont know how voting works
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
Mapping Israel’s Invasion of Lebanon https://www.nytimes.com/article/israel-lebanon-invasion-map.html
2
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
They can vote however they like on the next review.
1
EdgyUsername
4 months ago
If someone is a whale, can they change their UMA vote? Sorry, newer to the process
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
For real, at worst this should go to 50/50. People were buying as if the voting was resolving 90% NO.
3
Eridpnc
4 months ago
Guys they are selling dollars for 0.1-99.9c on polymarket
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
10% Voted YES, 90% voted Early request. No NO votes. As the fog of war clears we will get even more evidence
3
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Donkov
4 months ago
Lets hope, but whales are looking to resolve Sept as a NO. How can Sept be a NO, but Nov YES?
0
Cedarville
4 months ago
Gonna resolve to "too early" then re-vote as "yes"
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
Israel holding ground in Oct destroys the NO argument of raids intentions. They tried in Sept, but could not establish a beachhead.
11
·
Liked by n/a, n/a and 11 others
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Donkov
4 months ago
Invade September market crashed. Its getting scammed
2
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Donkov
4 months ago
Listen here little baby. You're gonna get a lot of hurtful and degrading comments, but that ain't what I'm about. Let me just say, you are perfect the way you are. You hear me sugar? PERFECT. Don't ever change. You deserve anything and everything you want. Stay safe for me, baby girl.
0
nnimrodd
4 months ago
I filmed this cynical guide to polymarket https://youtu.be/1vj7jnA2Pyg
What will Trump say during Wisconsin speech?
Donkov
4 months ago
It does kinda sound like debate wtf
2
What will Trump say during Wisconsin speech?
Donkov
4 months ago
he didnt say it i think
2
ilfrenkie
4 months ago
wtf is happening with debate?
What will Trump say during Wisconsin speech?
Donkov
4 months ago
wat?
2
What will Trump say during Wisconsin speech?
Donkov
4 months ago
ez iran israel
0
What will Trump say during Wisconsin speech?
Donkov
4 months ago
exaaactly
0
Apsalar
4 months ago
rsbn is always 2 dumb bitches telling each other “exactlyyyyy”
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Donkov
4 months ago
If Iran activates Hezbollah, then, yea, very likely this will itensify.
1
h00r11z11n2003
4 months ago
Wondering whether Iranian attack on Israel just now increases or decreases odds of full invasion. If anything, I'd argue increases: Israel has a greater argument for establishing its own defense by force and can argue it would expect Hezbollah attacks in event of a war with Iran which now seems likely. Yesers, don't give up hope. What we're seeing right now from Israel is not the full invasion but shaping operations for a larger movement that will involve more troops and mechanized forces. And yes, they will have to establish temporary control over parts of Southern Lebanon to accomplish this. Remember, this isn't the invasion in September market. Don't count your chickens, but don't think we have egg on our face either. It's going to be a long month.
Iran strike on Israel today?
Donkov
4 months ago
Just have to enter israeli airspace, right?
0
AiBets
4 months ago
will the rockets land tho
Iran strike on Israel today?
Donkov
4 months ago
when it happens, it happens 😔
0
Iran strike on Israel today?
Donkov
4 months ago
Just going by their track record. Last time, these markets all YES went to 0. They had weeks time, now its just a single day. Good gamble imo.
0
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
I would be all over this YES market, but all the geniusses are on NO, so im afraid.
Iran strike on Israel today?
Donkov
4 months ago
wtf selling
0
Car
4 months ago
Wow you should buy some Y then
Iran strike on Israel today?
Donkov
4 months ago
false, and dare I say Homosexual
0
tsybka
4 months ago
Car, rockets are already flying.
Iran strike on Israel today?
Donkov
4 months ago
Two more weeks
2
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Donkov
4 months ago
Mr HL, tear down that 89.7 wall
6
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Donkov
4 months ago
Pretty much done deal, but lets wait for more evidence.
3
ActDrew
4 months ago
Everyone talking about total occupation really need to read the market rules, it clearly states "commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Lebanon". It could easily be argued that even without ground invasion, the military offensive and tactics being used currently are intended to control pretty much all of southern lebanon in order to push Hezbollah north of the Litani River. As per the IDF's own evacuation call for most towns south of the river. https://x.com/AvichayAdraee/status/1841045108537294975
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Donkov
4 months ago
At the very least they have control over the border crossings that belong to Lebanon.
3
ActDrew
4 months ago
Everyone talking about total occupation really need to read the market rules, it clearly states "commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Lebanon". It could easily be argued that even without ground invasion, the military offensive and tactics being used currently are intended to control pretty much all of southern lebanon in order to push Hezbollah north of the Litani River. As per the IDF's own evacuation call for most towns south of the river. https://x.com/AvichayAdraee/status/1841045108537294975
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Donkov
4 months ago
Everything happens all the time. In fact, it already happened. You aint getting those $134 back
1
Hamurabi
4 months ago
https://x.com/WarMonitors/status/1841025899291939315?t=8FPrA990NYAZ34yWfdPbHw&s=19
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Donkov
4 months ago
lol "Israel’s army reports ‘intense fighting’ in southern Lebanon" https://www.aljazeera.com/program/newsfeed/2024/10/1/video-israels-army-reports-intense-fighting-in-southern-lebanon
2
Hamurabi
4 months ago
https://x.com/WarMonitors/status/1841025899291939315?t=8FPrA990NYAZ34yWfdPbHw&s=19
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
Man, this is genuinely saddening for me to see. Blinded by greed. You must be quite new to the site? Such markets are impossible to overturn. It would have resolved to YES, even without the ground invasion beginning. There was enough evidence to tip it.
0
watever345
4 months ago
this is getting interesting
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
Trust the plan NO bros. The mother of all squeezes is about to hit. Diamond hands
0
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
Israelis just went for sight seeing. Cause they good neighbours. No combat lmao
2
Bigcash
4 months ago
Still waiting for a source that says Israel has troops in Lebanon for combat, only seeing some random intel gathering divisions, they probably have spec ops in lebanon already before the 30th
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
Curios how you think this will work in your favor? The timer just ended few mins ago, and we are swarmed with articles of a limited ground offensive.
0
watever345
4 months ago
this is getting interesting
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
crash NO bros with no survivors
0
HaterzLoserz
4 months ago
I may not be Hezbollah, but im here to terrorise your wallet
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
bro, they are in Lebanon, right now
1
n/a
4 months ago
There are no confirmed raids today or previous to today on any trustworthy offical news channel. Isreal is still telling people to leave the suburbs.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
Thats better?
0
n/a
4 months ago
You probably look like the nasty faggot loser in your profile picture the way you're speaking to me 😂
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
Its okay, sweaty. I'm sure you are going to win. I'm here for you. Try closing some other market positions? Its worth it, free money.
0
n/a
4 months ago
You probably look like the nasty faggot loser in your profile picture the way you're speaking to me 😂
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
Theres nothing more to say. You will not recoup your losses with thise one, only lose more. Classic gambler pitfall
0
n/a
4 months ago
You have nothing more to say 🤣
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
Keep buying no
1
n/a
4 months ago
"The IDF has yet to announce or confirm that any such ground invasion, the first IDF ground operation in Lebanon since the Second Lebanon War in 2006, has been launched."
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
No bros in shambles https://x.com/Jerusalem_Post/status/1840851183654568138
2
What will Trump say during Wisconsin speech?
Donkov
4 months ago
Trump mentions is back on the menu, bois!
7
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
Doesnt matter. It already happened, lol
0
Reaper01
4 months ago
🚨🇮🇱NO ISRAELI SOLDIER HAS CROSSED INTO LEBANON YET Israeli media reports that no Israeli soldiers have crossed into Lebanon at this time. Source: Sky News Arabia
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
just dont look at it, lol
0
severian
4 months ago
People who link tweets as evidence need to be banned.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
sauce?
0
cooker
4 months ago
"It is roughly 10:00pm in Israel, and the Invasion of Southern Lebanon has begun."
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
False alarm. No bros, we got this.
0
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
Someone (car) bought a lot of shares.
0
abdendriel
4 months ago
They are doing artillery shelling and the tanks are right on the border.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
did they invade?
0
Will Israeli troops enter Beirut by October 31?
Donkov
4 months ago
Be careful, Greater Israel ambitions include Beirut.
1
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
Diamond hands NO bros. Squeeze the hedgies
0
Will Russia capture Vuhledar before October?
Donkov
4 months ago
Completely wrong. If we get flooded by news that the city has fallen, outdated maps will not save no bros.
0
tsybka
4 months ago
You can share your thoughts and news as much as you want, but if the card specified in the rules is not updated by the time the market is resolved, you will lose.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
"Noooooooooooooo if you buy yes you are a scammer" So we went through all the stages of cope, now we are at the anger phase.
0
crow
4 months ago
For people wondering why the price of no is still low because there is a guy called 50-pence scammer who keeps buying yes shares thinking that it will resolve to yes if the price of yes is high
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
Just trading, trying to farm rewards.
0
OhNos
4 months ago
My Guess is Israel will wait for the newly deployed F-15E, F-16, A-10 and F-22 fighter planes to arrive in the Middle East to help protect US troops before invading, My reasoning for taking NO on this market probably the Only US request Israel will listen too lol , remember they need our weapons if they plan to go to war.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
Bro, they already entered, lol
0
OhNos
4 months ago
My Guess is Israel will wait for the newly deployed F-15E, F-16, A-10 and F-22 fighter planes to arrive in the Middle East to help protect US troops before invading, My reasoning for taking NO on this market probably the Only US request Israel will listen too lol , remember they need our weapons if they plan to go to war.
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Donkov
4 months ago
I-is it happening?
1
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
Hey buddy, I think you got the wrong market. The invasion market is two scrolls down.
0
OhNos
4 months ago
My Guess is Israel will wait for the newly deployed F-15E, F-16, A-10 and F-22 fighter planes to arrive in the Middle East to help protect US troops before invading, My reasoning for taking NO on this market probably the Only US request Israel will listen too lol , remember they need our weapons if they plan to go to war.
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Donkov
4 months ago
Ah, nvm, if that is indeed the case, then, yea. Lets see
1
Mr.Wellington
4 months ago
"But Israeli officials assured their American counterparts that they did not intend to follow up those incursions with a bigger operation by conventional forces or by occupying parts of southern Lebanon. U.S. officials said they believed the commandos would quickly pull back after the operations were finished."
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Donkov
4 months ago
Would still be enough to resolve to yes
1
Mr.Wellington
4 months ago
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/30/us/politics/us-israel-lebanon-hezbollah.html
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Donkov
4 months ago
Lost $30 😔
0
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
This strongly reminds me of GME copers
1
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
Yea, they were there sight seeing. Unarmed, right?
0
crow
4 months ago
for combat operations ، They didn't even fire a single shot
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
Thanks, we need more volatility
0
HaterzLoserz
4 months ago
Ive sold so take it how you will, seems like this should resolve to yes to me personally. However, I just asked ChatGPT, and it said in the strictest sense it does not quality as combat operations. Now, fight over it in the comments please. "Sending special forces across an international border into another country to gather intelligence prior to an invasion typically does not fall under the definition of "combat operations" in the strictest military sense. However, it can depend on how the term "combat operations" is defined by the specific country or military organization." "
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
Oh yea, the strike by end of August market. Wild, I tho you meant a current market :d
0
BlackSky123
4 months ago
No-bros, I'm sorry to break it to you, but you can't bond a war market! The Russia one flipped literally in the 11th hour! There is no rest for wars.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
Disputers? Our response?
4
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
Wait, which Russian market do you mean?
0
BlackSky123
4 months ago
No-bros, I'm sorry to break it to you, but you can't bond a war market! The Russia one flipped literally in the 11th hour! There is no rest for wars.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
uh oh, dispooters arrived
0
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
STOP THE STEAL
1
Kavim
4 months ago
SOMEONE NEED TO DO SOMETHING! ITS LITERALLY NO! https://oracle.uma.xyz/?project=Polymarket
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
Yea, and he dumping at 100.00
1
Hugor21
4 months ago
50 pence pumping on y’all
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
Theres multiple sources reporting incursions into lebanon. Including Hezbollah claiming they used arty to strike at troops.
0
n/a
4 months ago
For a polymarket newbie its hard to understand that many buy YES but its not clear if it would resolve YES by definition of the bet.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
Someone dispute? For fun
3
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
Yea, a lot of issues. Logout then log back in
4
Foreseeable.
4 months ago
On another note: Do you guys have issues with the servers aswell? Sometimes my positions disappear and i got a heart attack because it says my portfolio shrunk by 2k :D Also, stock amount is sometimes off, or it doesnt show activity? Happens for me in multiple networks, from multiple devices etc.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
Whew, rekt
1
just.some.guy
4 months ago
I knew that today I'd be making one of two posts: either "Whew" or "Rekt". I sure wish it could've been the other one.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
Why not both? For some its whew for some its rekt. Lets all celebrate it together
1
just.some.guy
4 months ago
I knew that today I'd be making one of two posts: either "Whew" or "Rekt". I sure wish it could've been the other one.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
Is this how you lost 36k?
4
madkkee
4 months ago
No credible reporting, read the rules everyone
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
Too many crazies holding till 100 or 0.
1
HaterzLoserz
4 months ago
I did in fact sell, price was too good considering the dispute and level of reporting around the special ops. If you compare price here to november invasion market, it just doesnt really make sense for an extra few % to push it for a day, rather than a month of window. if you can get out at a decent price, consider the move to november market is my advice. But idk shit :P
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
bro, just sell until it goes to 0
3
n/a
4 months ago
This market got manipulated to hell. 50-Pence, aenews and the rest of the whales will dump on all of you before this gets resolved. Don't say I didn't warn you.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Donkov
4 months ago
funny, he couldve covered during the godsend fud, but instead to die on the hill