Fact Check: Did the U.S. hit Iranian spy ship?

denizz

2 months ago

I’m guessing it came from some shitty Saudi telegram that she subscribes to

0

rep

2 months ago

PSA for the Yes tards: If you actually think this story holds any water, you're clearly not paying attention. The only “evidence” is a biased Saudi outlet and a tweet from a pro-Israel hack; nothing from any real, reputable source. No major news org or US official has confirmed a US strike on Zagros. This is nothing but fake news. Wake up and check your sources.

Fact Check: Did the U.S. hit Iranian spy ship?

denizz

2 months ago

Al hadath is fairly reliable for military reporting. However i don’t believe this story ever appeared there

0

rep

2 months ago

PSA for the Yes tards: If you actually think this story holds any water, you're clearly not paying attention. The only “evidence” is a biased Saudi outlet and a tweet from a pro-Israel hack; nothing from any real, reputable source. No major news org or US official has confirmed a US strike on Zagros. This is nothing but fake news. Wake up and check your sources.

Fact Check: Did the U.S. hit Iranian spy ship?

denizz

2 months ago

What was the Saudi outlet?

0

rep

2 months ago

PSA for the Yes tards: If you actually think this story holds any water, you're clearly not paying attention. The only “evidence” is a biased Saudi outlet and a tweet from a pro-Israel hack; nothing from any real, reputable source. No major news org or US official has confirmed a US strike on Zagros. This is nothing but fake news. Wake up and check your sources.

Will Hamas enter Israel by Friday?

denizz

2 months ago

OK missed these reports. Per Wikipedia seems these guys didn’t make it to shore tho. Most recent ground incident in zikim land area on Wikipedia was October 16 2023

0

username3

2 months ago

After the October 7th attacks Israel/Gaze border is more protected than the North/South Korea border.

Will Hamas enter Israel by Friday?

denizz

2 months ago

Crossing the border i meant

0

username3

2 months ago

After the October 7th attacks Israel/Gaze border is more protected than the North/South Korea border.

Will Hamas enter Israel by Friday?

denizz

2 months ago

Really when?

0

username3

2 months ago

After the October 7th attacks Israel/Gaze border is more protected than the North/South Korea border.

Will Hamas enter Israel by Friday?

denizz

2 months ago

I don’t think that happened since the start of the war

0

username3

2 months ago

After the October 7th attacks Israel/Gaze border is more protected than the North/South Korea border.

Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?

denizz

2 months ago

Just air and sea should be a no

1

Justifax

2 months ago

"must pertain to all theaters of military conflict between the two countries" .. How well does poly respect this clause, anyone know?

Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?

denizz

2 months ago

Meaning all of Ukraine and Russia etc

0

Justifax

2 months ago

"must pertain to all theaters of military conflict between the two countries" .. How well does poly respect this clause, anyone know?

Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?

denizz

2 months ago

Begins with a k

0

DFK

2 months ago

It's all fun and games to have markets like this one, but am I the only one here longing for real markets not hinging on technicalities but on real events? (Like the title of this market, as opposed to it's dumb rules). I feel like PM multiplies ridiculous markets and we still don't have a single market covering a real end of the conflict. It's the same across the board. 200 markets about tweets and technicalities and impossible to foresee BS, and not a handful of markets about real events.

Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?

denizz

2 months ago

It would be hard to write resolution criteria for a market on a genuine end to the conflict.

0

DFK

2 months ago

It's all fun and games to have markets like this one, but am I the only one here longing for real markets not hinging on technicalities but on real events? (Like the title of this market, as opposed to it's dumb rules). I feel like PM multiplies ridiculous markets and we still don't have a single market covering a real end of the conflict. It's the same across the board. 200 markets about tweets and technicalities and impossible to foresee BS, and not a handful of markets about real events.

Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?

denizz

2 months ago

you sound brain damaged

1

Trashstar

2 months ago

I like how this market is titled about whether Trump himself will end the war when the rules just state there needs to be a ceasefire, he doesn't even have to remotely play a role, odd market language from poly once again

Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?

denizz

2 months ago

Polymarket is all about sucking trump off so that he’ll drop their cftc case and to draw degenerate magas

2

Trashstar

2 months ago

I like how this market is titled about whether Trump himself will end the war when the rules just state there needs to be a ceasefire, he doesn't even have to remotely play a role, odd market language from poly once again

Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?

denizz

2 months ago

What's your concern about this particular market?

0

DFK

2 months ago

It's all fun and games to have markets like this one, but am I the only one here longing for real markets not hinging on technicalities but on real events? (Like the title of this market, as opposed to it's dumb rules). I feel like PM multiplies ridiculous markets and we still don't have a single market covering a real end of the conflict. It's the same across the board. 200 markets about tweets and technicalities and impossible to foresee BS, and not a handful of markets about real events.

Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?

denizz

2 months ago

Probably for the best

0

Women4MAGA

2 months ago

These cunt won't let me bet.

Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?

denizz

2 months ago

It either happens or it doesn’t

0

Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?

denizz

2 months ago

has to go yes if it’s formally announced by both sides

1

Justifax

2 months ago

Yikes, serious polyscam potential here. What if Russia agrees but keeps bombing. Like in Mars Attacks (great movie) .. "We come in peace, we are your friends!" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_vUrAMxmO_A

Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?

denizz

2 months ago

T his market will resolve based on the first announcement of such an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement.

0

denizz

2 months ago

Most likely Putin will agree to this 30 day ceasefire since it is a small price to pay for staying on trump’s good side

Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?

denizz

2 months ago

You were very ahead of the curve with Vance memes

2

denizz

2 months ago

Most likely Putin will agree to this 30 day ceasefire since it is a small price to pay for staying on trump’s good side

Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?

denizz

2 months ago

Most likely Putin will agree to this 30 day ceasefire since it is a small price to pay for staying on trump’s good side

7

Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?

denizz

2 months ago

"Whichever side has more comments loses, usually"

2

Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?

denizz

2 months ago

Source: schizophrenia

1

Jim10

2 months ago

That’s why Zelensky doesn’t want the war to end! He owns a 35 million dollar home in FL and has $1.2 billion in a overseas bank account. Zelensky owns 15 homes, 3 private planes and has a monthly income of 11 million dollars. Why is no one questioning where our AID is going?

Will Kanye launch a coin in February?

denizz

2 months ago

They rigged it by slipping alcohol into his mother's pregnancy smoothies

1

denizz

2 months ago

HaiCalin did you lose $2K betting against Jews or are you just retarded?

Will Kanye launch a coin in February?

denizz

2 months ago

Since it was only 2K I'm gonna assume the latter

0

denizz

2 months ago

HaiCalin did you lose $2K betting against Jews or are you just retarded?

Will Kanye launch a coin in February?

denizz

2 months ago

HaiCalin did you lose $2K betting against Jews or are you just retarded?

3

Will Kanye launch a coin in February?

denizz

2 months ago

Let’s dispel with this fiction that Kanye doesn’t know what he’s doing. He knows exactly what he’s doing.

3

Will Kanye launch a coin in February?

denizz

2 months ago

It means sea and haicalin loosely translates as catamite

1

denizz

2 months ago

False alarm

Will Kanye launch a coin in February?

denizz

2 months ago

False alarm

2

Will Kanye launch a coin in February?

denizz

2 months ago

Damn we could have paid him to follow aenews for that amount

2

Oxymirin

2 months ago

Every tweet is worth 1 million at this point in the market.

Will Kanye launch a coin in February?

denizz

2 months ago

The nos are actually kinda racist and ableist

4

Will Kanye launch a coin in February?

denizz

2 months ago

I just want a big no daddy to fill me up bro, don't tell me it's wrong.

0

denizz

2 months ago

My body is ready

Will Kanye launch a coin in February?

denizz

2 months ago

I'm trying, waiting for more no insiders to farm me uwu

0

denizz

2 months ago

My body is ready

Will Kanye launch a coin in February?

denizz

2 months ago

My body is ready

2

Will Kanye launch a coin in February?

denizz

2 months ago

"what's up faygeles?"

2

Zeros

2 months ago

He just tweeted

Will Kanye launch a coin in February?

denizz

2 months ago

What was the recent post from Cleo?

0

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 15?

denizz

2 months ago

Trump told Brian Kilmeade Netanyahu "is not torn” about the way forward in the Gaza war and stresses the Israeli prime minister "wants to go in”. When asked if he prefers that Netanyahu implements the 2nd phase of the hostage deal or go after Hamas Trump said: “I am OK either way"

0

Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?

denizz

2 months ago

Thank you daddy trump uwu

6

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 15?

denizz

2 months ago

bruh he's had 5+ corruption trials/investigations

4

its.just.fire

2 months ago

even tho im not israeli, I really love bibi, one of a kind.

Gaza mass population relocation in 2025?

denizz

2 months ago

But some polling is still going on

1

denizz

2 months ago

Hundreds of thousands of Gazans are interested in leaving the Gaza Strip, this emerged today (Monday) in a discussion held by Defense Minister Israel Katz. The data was provided by the head of the IDF, Major General Rasan Alian

Gaza mass population relocation in 2025?

denizz

2 months ago

Well prewar polls already showed this

1

denizz

2 months ago

Hundreds of thousands of Gazans are interested in leaving the Gaza Strip, this emerged today (Monday) in a discussion held by Defense Minister Israel Katz. The data was provided by the head of the IDF, Major General Rasan Alian

Gaza mass population relocation in 2025?

denizz

2 months ago

Calls and interviews

1

denizz

2 months ago

Hundreds of thousands of Gazans are interested in leaving the Gaza Strip, this emerged today (Monday) in a discussion held by Defense Minister Israel Katz. The data was provided by the head of the IDF, Major General Rasan Alian

Gaza mass population relocation in 2025?

denizz

2 months ago

Palestinian opinion polls for example show this

1

denizz

2 months ago

Hundreds of thousands of Gazans are interested in leaving the Gaza Strip, this emerged today (Monday) in a discussion held by Defense Minister Israel Katz. The data was provided by the head of the IDF, Major General Rasan Alian

Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?

denizz

2 months ago

only in september lol

0

0x6390bd3b91b197c3612a616c7B851459CeC81874-1734779369003

2 months ago

I thought Polymarket decided that Lebanon never invaded??

Elon Musk out as Head of DOGE before July?

denizz

2 months ago

In retrospect it was some degree of silly

0

Emptiness.

2 months ago

By denizz's logic, if Elon was DOGE head, then dropped dead on April second, this market should still resolve to No!

Elon Musk out as Head of DOGE before July?

denizz

2 months ago

I don't think you were following the (slightly weird) point I was making about the grammar, but you convinced me about the intent with this. It would be a pretty big flaw in the rules if there was nothing for leaving in other circumstances than resignation.

0

Emptiness.

2 months ago

By denizz's logic, if Elon was DOGE head, then dropped dead on April second, this market should still resolve to No!

Elon Musk out as Head of DOGE before July?

denizz

2 months ago

I don't even own any shares. I disputed because I interpret the rules that way.

0

denizz

2 months ago

If DOGE is created and Elon Musk is not it's head/co-head at any point by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes."

Elon Musk out as Head of DOGE before July?

denizz

2 months ago

Depends on the intended scope of not in the sentence https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Negative_raising#NEG-raising_in_English

0

denizz

2 months ago

If DOGE is created and Elon Musk is not it's head/co-head at any point by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes."

Elon Musk out as Head of DOGE before July?

denizz

2 months ago

That sentence could also be explaining what happens if DOGE is created and Elon is not the head for any point in the market period.

0

denizz

2 months ago

If DOGE is created and Elon Musk is not it's head/co-head at any point by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes."

Elon Musk out as Head of DOGE before July?

denizz

2 months ago

We won't know that until the end of the market period

0

denizz

2 months ago

If DOGE is created and Elon Musk is not it's head/co-head at any point by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes."

Elon Musk out as Head of DOGE before July?

denizz

2 months ago

Yes so if he fails to be the head of doge for even one moment, he can't resign, but this nevertheless resolves yes on july 1

0

denizz

2 months ago

If DOGE is created and Elon Musk is not it's head/co-head at any point by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes."

Elon Musk out as Head of DOGE before July?

denizz

2 months ago

The sentence is syntactically ambiguous between your interpretation and the interpretation I just suggested.

0

denizz

2 months ago

If DOGE is created and Elon Musk is not it's head/co-head at any point by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes."

Elon Musk out as Head of DOGE before July?

denizz

2 months ago

This market can't resolve until July 1, since we don't yet know if Musk will be the formal head of DOGE any point by then.

0

denizz

2 months ago

If DOGE is created and Elon Musk is not it's head/co-head at any point by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes."

Elon Musk out as Head of DOGE before July?

denizz

2 months ago

If DOGE is created and Elon Musk is not it's head/co-head at any point by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes."

1

Elon Musk out as Head of DOGE before July?

denizz

2 months ago

How do you see if it's disputed?

1

Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?

denizz

2 months ago

They announced they’re staying at the five points so it will go no

1

Arielllllll

2 months ago

If Israel is going to stay in five points that’s for sure result as no, but she going to withdraw maybe tomorrow until the 28th she going to withdraw so don’t understand

Gaza mass population relocation in 2025?

denizz

2 months ago

Hundreds of thousands of Gazans are interested in leaving the Gaza Strip, this emerged today (Monday) in a discussion held by Defense Minister Israel Katz. The data was provided by the head of the IDF, Major General Rasan Alian

2

Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?

denizz

2 months ago

The deployment at the 5 points is not linked to the 28th

1

Arielllllll

2 months ago

If Israel is going to stay in five points that’s for sure result as no, but she going to withdraw maybe tomorrow until the 28th she going to withdraw so don’t understand

Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?

denizz

2 months ago

“We will leave small amounts of troops deployed temporarily in five strategic points along the border in Lebanon so we can continue to defend our residents and to make sure there’s no immediate threat,” said Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani, a military spokesman, in a briefing for reporters on Monday afternoon. Colonel Shoshani named several locations spread along most of the length of the 75-mile border, including places across the border from Israeli villages that were badly damaged by Hezbollah rocket fire during the war. He said that Hezbollah had not lived up to its own side of the November agreement and still posed a threat to Israeli residents in those areas. He declined to say how long the occupation would last.

1

Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?

denizz

2 months ago

I don't follow

1

Arielllllll

2 months ago

If Israel is going to stay in five points that’s for sure result as no, but she going to withdraw maybe tomorrow until the 28th she going to withdraw so don’t understand

Tiffany Fong pregnant before July?

denizz

3 months ago

Wait so this market was based on what? Elon tweeted at her?

0

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 15?

denizz

3 months ago

Fair pt

0

denizz

3 months ago

Dov what happened?

Will Israel annex Lebanese territory before July?

denizz

3 months ago

Another day another goyische freier

0

MiriGerev01

3 months ago

Zionists building some "friendly outposts" on Lebanese soil. https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/israeli-official-idf-will-stay-in-5-strategic-posts-in-lebanon-despite-planned-pullout/

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 15?

denizz

3 months ago

Arab diplomatic sources tell Qatari Al-Arabi Al-Jadeed: There is an intention to postpone the Arab emergency summit scheduled in Cairo on February 27, with March 4 appearing to be an optional date for the summit. According to the sources, the postponement is intended to allow time to formulate an Arab plan for the Gaza Strip and convince all Arab leaders to participate

1

Will Israel annex Lebanese territory before July?

denizz

3 months ago

Thanks for the donation to my kids yeshiva fund

0

MiriGerev01

3 months ago

Zionists building some "friendly outposts" on Lebanese soil. https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/israeli-official-idf-will-stay-in-5-strategic-posts-in-lebanon-despite-planned-pullout/

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 15?

denizz

3 months ago

Not sure if they can do anything major besides having some popup warning when you make an account.

0

denizz

3 months ago

Dov what happened?

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

denizz

3 months ago

Joe Wilson is weird iirc

2

Mr.Fister

3 months ago

I'll counter with proper news from *credible* reporting: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-17/russia-set-to-keep-reduced-military-presence-in-post-assad-syria no paywall: https://archive.ph/MrFLM

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 15?

denizz

3 months ago

They don't normally respond to complaints about how markets resolve, but they might respond about this.

1

denizz

3 months ago

Dov what happened?

Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?

denizz

3 months ago

"Israel will hold onto five strategic high points just inside Lebanon after next Tuesday’s ceasefire deadline requiring it to withdraw all troops, a top Israeli government official says. The army will redeploy but retain those five positions until Lebanon complies with ceasefire commitments, Israel’s Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, who’s one of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s closest confidants, said in a telephone interview."

1

Yeswayne

3 months ago

the rules stated "regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue"

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

denizz

3 months ago

Russia will likely keep a reduced military presence in Syria, achieving a key objective for President Vladimir Putin after the downfall of the Assad regime he backed, according to people familiar with the matter. Moscow is close to a deal with the new Syrian government that would allow it to maintain some staff and equipment in the country, the people said, asking not to be identified because they weren’t authorized to speak publicly.

1

Mr.Fister

3 months ago

I'll counter with proper news from *credible* reporting: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-17/russia-set-to-keep-reduced-military-presence-in-post-assad-syria no paywall: https://archive.ph/MrFLM

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 15?

denizz

3 months ago

I'm sorry to hear that. Was it one of those fake customer support catfishers?

1

denizz

3 months ago

Dov what happened?

Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?

denizz

3 months ago

The Strategic Affairs Minister has already stated publicly that they are staying, however.

0

Yeswayne

3 months ago

the rules stated "regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue"

Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?

denizz

3 months ago

Yes, if Israel unambiguously announces that they have withdrawn from *all* of Lebanon, then this goes yes.

0

Yeswayne

3 months ago

the rules stated "regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue"

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 15?

denizz

3 months ago

Dov what happened?

1

Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?

denizz

3 months ago

Israel will withdraw tomorrow from its positions in Lebanon, except for five strategic points where it will remain indefinitely, according to a senior Israeli official: Channel 13

1

Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?

denizz

3 months ago

Dermer is privvy to the decision making. But it’s true that the value of yes is lower today

0

denizz

3 months ago

Greengasper change of heart?

Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?

denizz

3 months ago

But it was interesting that there was still some reporting ambiguity yesterday

0

denizz

3 months ago

Greengasper change of heart?

Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?

denizz

3 months ago

It was already stated by Ron dermer last week

0

denizz

3 months ago

Greengasper change of heart?

Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?

denizz

3 months ago

Greengasper change of heart?

0

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

denizz

3 months ago

I don’t think anyone on no assumes that the prewar agreements between Syria and Russia will remain completely unaltered

2

zxxxzx

3 months ago

https://x.com/zriboua/status/1891276335584088427 :)

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 15?

denizz

3 months ago

Hamas thinks it can get away with withdrawing from formal governance while retaining its armed wing and de facto control or heavy influence over the govt

0

SwissOG

3 months ago

Witkoff confirmed phase 2 talks underway, Hamas willing to leave leadership of Gaza... what am I missing here???

Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?

denizz

3 months ago

Certainly no such attack was ever ordered by the israeli command structure and they did apologize for some incidents

0

greengasper

3 months ago

The report cites from security sources, stating that they are waiting for the political echelon to decide whether they will withdraw within two days or stay for another 10 days, the deadline of this market

Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?

denizz

3 months ago

Israel never deliberately attacked unifil, or at least it's unlikely and there is no proof thereof

2

greengasper

3 months ago

The report cites from security sources, stating that they are waiting for the political echelon to decide whether they will withdraw within two days or stay for another 10 days, the deadline of this market

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 15?

denizz

3 months ago

4 weeks isn’t a long time to get Hamas to agree to end their 17+ year regime

0

SwissOG

3 months ago

Witkoff confirmed phase 2 talks underway, Hamas willing to leave leadership of Gaza... what am I missing here???

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 15?

denizz

3 months ago

I’m not optimistic but I’d be happy to lose this one

2

SwissOG

3 months ago

Witkoff confirmed phase 2 talks underway, Hamas willing to leave leadership of Gaza... what am I missing here???

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 15?

denizz

3 months ago

He adds that phase two “is a little bit more intricate and complicated in terms of how we bring the two sides together on this.” Witkoff explains that the second phase of the deal “contemplates an end to the war, but it also contemplates Hamas not being involved in the government and being gone from Gaza. So, we’ve got to square those two things.”

1

SwissOG

3 months ago

Witkoff confirmed phase 2 talks underway, Hamas willing to leave leadership of Gaza... what am I missing here???

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 15?

denizz

3 months ago

Israel wants substantial demilitarization and exile of Hamas leaders. Seems like it will take longer than a month to hash out

0

SwissOG

3 months ago

Witkoff confirmed phase 2 talks underway, Hamas willing to leave leadership of Gaza... what am I missing here???

Will Trump sanction Russia before March?

denizz

3 months ago

Builds on is too vague a relationship and they emphasize the cyber security aspect

0

Gerwis

3 months ago

These sanctions are clearly part of a broader strategy targeting Russian government-affiliated cyber operations. The legal framework and context indicate that these actions are clearly targeting Russian state-linked entities. I can’t believe this market still hasn’t resolved to "Yes."

Will Trump sanction Russia before March?

denizz

3 months ago

Need some sourcing this was against Russia

0

Gerwis

3 months ago

These sanctions are clearly part of a broader strategy targeting Russian government-affiliated cyber operations. The legal framework and context indicate that these actions are clearly targeting Russian state-linked entities. I can’t believe this market still hasn’t resolved to "Yes."

Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?

denizz

3 months ago

ok was their main hope then

0

denizz

3 months ago

Yes holders, this is your main hope:

Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?

denizz

3 months ago

MEP is too talented to tolerate mere 10% return in 2 weeks.

1

its.just.fire

3 months ago

never bet against bibi.

Will Trump sanction Russia before March?

denizz

3 months ago

sorry what scam was i doing?

0

Emptiness.

3 months ago

I'm sorry they tried to scam you denizz!

Will Trump sanction Russia before March?

denizz

3 months ago

Unfortunately a lot of the no holders lost money on shares that should have been winning (myself included).

3

Emptiness.

3 months ago

I'm sorry they tried to scam you denizz!

Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?

denizz

3 months ago

Sources pointed out that several possibilities are being studied, including a proposal announced by French Foreign Minister Jean Noel Barrot after the conference on Syria in Paris, which stipulates the deployment of some UNIFIL units, including French units, in the places where Israel wants to remain. The proposal was approved by UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, while Israel has not yet responded.

0

denizz

3 months ago

Yes holders, this is your main hope:

Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?

denizz

3 months ago

After the head of the monitoring committee informed Lebanon of Israel’s intention to maintain observation points, communication took place between President Joseph Aoun and Speaker Nabih Berri to coordinate positions and study the situation, while stressing the importance of withdrawal.

0

denizz

3 months ago

Yes holders, this is your main hope:

Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?

denizz

3 months ago

Yes holders, this is your main hope:

0

Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?

denizz

3 months ago

They're going to hand over all the villages but not 5 or so hilltop outposts.

0

its.just.fire

3 months ago

https://x.com/CENTCOM/status/1890370586620358906?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1890370586620358906%7Ctwgr%5E416d2f9a7922dce7156d445606078e5776d972bb%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fal-akhbar.com%2Flebanon%2F823336%2F-D8B3D986D8AAD983D988D985---D8A5D8B3D8B1D8A7D8A6D98AD984-D8B3D8AAD986D8B3D8ADD8A8-D985D986--D8ACD985D98AD8B9-D8A7D984D982D8B1D989--D982D8A8D984-D8A7D984D8ABD984D8A7D8ABD8A7D8A1-D8A7D984D985D982D8A8D984

Will Trump sanction Russia before March?

denizz

3 months ago

this but unironically

0

bruceyt

3 months ago

Trump Administration: *sanctions Russia*... Yestards Clowns: "NO NOT LIKE THAT, it has to be a SPECIAL Russian, we've decided!"

Will Trump sanction Russia before March?

denizz

3 months ago

Much appreciated!

0

denizz

3 months ago

If any yes holders want to join my lawsuit against Polymarket over their resolution practices, please lmk.

Will Trump sanction Russia before March?

denizz

3 months ago

It's important to be aware of how PM uses clarifications, but it's not clear that the way they are using them is legal. They advertise their resolution process as decentralized.

1

denizz

3 months ago

If any yes holders want to join my lawsuit against Polymarket over their resolution practices, please lmk.

Will Trump sanction Russia before March?

denizz

3 months ago

If any yes holders want to join my lawsuit against Polymarket over their resolution practices, please lmk.

2

Will Trump sanction Russia before March?

denizz

3 months ago

They clarified Syria 10 days late and I lost $60K feel free to join my lawsuit.

1

duderr

3 months ago

crazy to clarify so late

Will Trump sanction Russia before March?

denizz

3 months ago

as long as they're "on Russia"

0

56uyrthjrt756

3 months ago

If you have any ability to read the context on this market it is about sanctions on "Russia" or individuals that are related/working to "Government of Russia".

Will Trump sanction Russia before March?

denizz

3 months ago

Let’s not make Uma feel bad about their reading comprehension

0

56uyrthjrt756

3 months ago

If you have any ability to read the context on this market it is about sanctions on "Russia" or individuals that are related/working to "Government of Russia".

Will Trump sanction Russia before March?

denizz

3 months ago

Looks like the vote will come down to how BornTooLate votes. Seems P4 Too Early is slightly favored.

0

Will Trump sanction Russia before March?

denizz

3 months ago

I'm not sure what the threshold is -- maybe 55%?

0

aenews-0xf1bb7

3 months ago

Chase | UMA P2, 5/5 UMA staff are P2 so far

Will Trump sanction Russia before March?

denizz

3 months ago

If there's no supermajority then they redo the vote lol

1

aenews-0xf1bb7

3 months ago

Chase | UMA P2, 5/5 UMA staff are P2 so far

Will Trump sanction Russia before March?

denizz

3 months ago

I mean you you could sanction a Malian individual and have it be "against Russia" and a Russian individual and have it be "against France". Having a nationality and being linked to a government are 2 different things.

1

denizz

3 months ago

Yes 23.64% (1,151,648.94) Early request 76.36% (3,719,461.61)

Will Trump sanction Russia before March?

denizz

3 months ago

Yes 23.64% (1,151,648.94) Early request 76.36% (3,719,461.61)

0

Will Trump sanction Russia before March?

denizz

3 months ago

rulecuckers btfo?

1

denizz

3 months ago

Yes 41.57% (1,151,648.94) Early request 58.43% (1,618,789.61)

Will Trump sanction Russia before March?

denizz

3 months ago

Yes 41.57% (1,151,648.94) Early request 58.43% (1,618,789.61)

0

Will Trump sanction Russia before March?

denizz

3 months ago

Car is the number one killer of males 18-25.

4

Will Trump sanction Russia before March?

denizz

3 months ago

ignoring

0

TraderJoe-s

3 months ago

The rules state "between January 21 and February 28, 2024" but wtf this was last year ...

Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?

denizz

3 months ago

no

0

its.just.fire

3 months ago

never doubt the princess

Gaza mass population relocation in 2025?

denizz

3 months ago

it's only a war crime if they leave involuntarily. there are 100s of thousands who would leave voluntarily if given a decent option.

5

figman

3 months ago

shits a war crime

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

sorry already have max no

0

denizz

3 months ago

Vladimir Putin held a telephone conversation with the President of the transitional period of the Syrian Arab Republic, Ahmed al-Sharaa 🔹Vladimir Putin wished Ahmed al-Sharaa success in solving the tasks facing the new leadership of the country for the benefit of the Syrian people, with whom Russia has historically been linked by friendly relations and mutually beneficial cooperation. 🔹A detailed exchange of views was held on the current situation in Syria. The Russian side emphasized its principled position in support of the unity, sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Syrian state. In this regard, the importance of implementing a set of measures for sustainable normalization in the country, intensifying the inter-Syrian dialogue with the participation of leading political forces and ethno-confessional groups of the population was emphasized. Vladimir Putin confirmed Russia's continued readiness to help improve the socio-economic situation in Syria, including providing humanitarian aid to its residents. etc

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

yeah just addressing people whining about russia going yes

0

denizz

3 months ago

Vladimir Putin held a telephone conversation with the President of the transitional period of the Syrian Arab Republic, Ahmed al-Sharaa 🔹Vladimir Putin wished Ahmed al-Sharaa success in solving the tasks facing the new leadership of the country for the benefit of the Syrian people, with whom Russia has historically been linked by friendly relations and mutually beneficial cooperation. 🔹A detailed exchange of views was held on the current situation in Syria. The Russian side emphasized its principled position in support of the unity, sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Syrian state. In this regard, the importance of implementing a set of measures for sustainable normalization in the country, intensifying the inter-Syrian dialogue with the participation of leading political forces and ethno-confessional groups of the population was emphasized. Vladimir Putin confirmed Russia's continued readiness to help improve the socio-economic situation in Syria, including providing humanitarian aid to its residents. etc

Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?

denizz

3 months ago

I think no wins this sorry to say. I obviously was concerned earlier this week.

0

Aquati

3 months ago

"For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanon territory, REGARDLESS of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue."

Will Trump sanction Russia before March?

denizz

3 months ago

I'm just saying that because he committed votes while Yes scammers were brigading the UMA thread. But too soon should still win here.

0

denizz

3 months ago

Kevin Chan voted yes uwu. Thank you daddy

Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?

denizz

3 months ago

I tend to hold later than most

0

Aquati

3 months ago

"For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanon territory, REGARDLESS of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue."

Will Trump sanction Russia before March?

denizz

3 months ago

Kevin Chan voted yes uwu. Thank you daddy

0

Will Trump sanction Russia before March?

denizz

3 months ago

you linked 14024 not 14144

1

Legassy

3 months ago

I hope this will resolve the dispute. The sanctions were imposed on the basis of Executive Order No. 14144 (which is clear from the press-report). The Executive Order No. 14144 is entitled "Russian Harmful Foreign Activities Sanctions Act", and, I quote Blocking Property With Respect To Specified Harmful Foreign Activities of the Government of the Russian Federation". According to OFAC's website, it "establishes a new national emergency under which sanctions may be imposed against individuals and entities furthering specified harmful foreign activities of the Russian Federation". You can check the executive order. It is clear that both this Executive Order and the sanctions imposed on the Russian individuals and the legal entity today are targeted against Russia.

Will Trump sanction Russia before March?

denizz

3 months ago

Combating the impact of lawlessness inside Russia isn't the same as combating Russia (see the Nigerian case above)

0

Legassy

3 months ago

In addition, this was a coordinated action of 3 governments: the US, the UK and Australia. Just see what the UK Foreign Secretary said on the topic: "This government will continue to work with partners to constrain the Kremlin and the impact of Russia’s lawless cyber underworld. We must counter their actions at every opportunity to safeguard the UK’s national security and deliver on our Plan for Change". The sanctions clearly target Russia, and the designated individuals are clearly not "random individuals", as the "no holders" seek to suggest. https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-uk-sanctions-target-russian-cybercrime-network

Will Trump sanction Russia before March?

denizz

3 months ago

yeh but wagner was demonstrably an arm of russian state

1

Aragorn-II

3 months ago

Common sense is a N on this. Sanctions against two individuals in a private Russian company is not equal to sanctions against Russia

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 15?

denizz

3 months ago

highly doubt it will play out as you think but maybe you need that feeback from someone else.

1

dovissmart

3 months ago

I'm buying more as I believe there's a high chance of a 'yes' any formal agreement counts, with no conditions like peace or ending the conflict, just mutual agreement

Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?

denizz

3 months ago

only if they announce [falsely] that they withdrew from all of Lebanon, which I doubt.

2

Aquati

3 months ago

"For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanon territory, REGARDLESS of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue."

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 15?

denizz

3 months ago

that's why the market settlement will rely on credible source consensus and official sources about what constitutes phase 2. sell your shit if this is your plan

1

dovissmart

3 months ago

I'm buying more as I believe there's a high chance of a 'yes' any formal agreement counts, with no conditions like peace or ending the conflict, just mutual agreement

Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?

denizz

3 months ago

yes and what's your username?

0

n/a

3 months ago

UN to take over the outposts

Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?

denizz

3 months ago

you on discord?

0

n/a

3 months ago

UN to take over the outposts

Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?

denizz

3 months ago

that's what Lebanon wants to happen

0

n/a

3 months ago

UN to take over the outposts

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 15?

denizz

3 months ago

you have tunnel vision about what it means. it's not clear at all but i'm telling you how i think it will most likely be interpreted having been thru a dozen plus of these retarded uma disputes.

0

dovissmart

3 months ago

I'm buying more as I believe there's a high chance of a 'yes' any formal agreement counts, with no conditions like peace or ending the conflict, just mutual agreement

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 15?

denizz

3 months ago

it's poorly worded, but i think they mean we should interpret "official agreement" to mean "publicly announced mutual agreement" but it still has to considered as "phase 2" by official or consensus of credible sources.

0

dovissmart

3 months ago

I'm buying more as I believe there's a high chance of a 'yes' any formal agreement counts, with no conditions like peace or ending the conflict, just mutual agreement

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 15?

denizz

3 months ago

only phase 2 counts, not continuation of phase 1

0

dovissmart

3 months ago

I'm buying more as I believe there's a high chance of a 'yes' any formal agreement counts, with no conditions like peace or ending the conflict, just mutual agreement

Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?

denizz

3 months ago

thanks, i should tip you for that when this resolves

0

greengasper

3 months ago

https://x.com/Alhadath_Brk/status/1889696903035539952

Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?

denizz

3 months ago

I think joe is lebanese

0

greengasper

3 months ago

Agreement extended after Ramadan

Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?

denizz

3 months ago

"It should be noted that these are initial understandings that were reached with the United States and that further work is expected to close the details In full and accurately." however

0

greengasper

3 months ago

Kan : cabinet ministers: "Israel" has obtained Washington's approval to remain in a number of locations in Lebanon beyond the ceasefire deadline

Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?

denizz

3 months ago

very nice

0

greengasper

3 months ago

Kan : cabinet ministers: "Israel" has obtained Washington's approval to remain in a number of locations in Lebanon beyond the ceasefire deadline

Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?

denizz

3 months ago

lebanon is famous for its hospitality

1

greengasper

3 months ago

Agreement extended after Ramadan

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

Sorry russia no folks

0

denizz

3 months ago

Vladimir Putin held a telephone conversation with the President of the transitional period of the Syrian Arab Republic, Ahmed al-Sharaa 🔹Vladimir Putin wished Ahmed al-Sharaa success in solving the tasks facing the new leadership of the country for the benefit of the Syrian people, with whom Russia has historically been linked by friendly relations and mutually beneficial cooperation. 🔹A detailed exchange of views was held on the current situation in Syria. The Russian side emphasized its principled position in support of the unity, sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Syrian state. In this regard, the importance of implementing a set of measures for sustainable normalization in the country, intensifying the inter-Syrian dialogue with the participation of leading political forces and ethno-confessional groups of the population was emphasized. Vladimir Putin confirmed Russia's continued readiness to help improve the socio-economic situation in Syria, including providing humanitarian aid to its residents. etc

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

Vladimir Putin held a telephone conversation with the President of the transitional period of the Syrian Arab Republic, Ahmed al-Sharaa 🔹Vladimir Putin wished Ahmed al-Sharaa success in solving the tasks facing the new leadership of the country for the benefit of the Syrian people, with whom Russia has historically been linked by friendly relations and mutually beneficial cooperation. 🔹A detailed exchange of views was held on the current situation in Syria. The Russian side emphasized its principled position in support of the unity, sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Syrian state. In this regard, the importance of implementing a set of measures for sustainable normalization in the country, intensifying the inter-Syrian dialogue with the participation of leading political forces and ethno-confessional groups of the population was emphasized. Vladimir Putin confirmed Russia's continued readiness to help improve the socio-economic situation in Syria, including providing humanitarian aid to its residents. etc

2

Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?

denizz

3 months ago

yes, the reports are contradictory. just saying where i think the weight of evidence points.

0

denizz

3 months ago

Most sources suggest there’s are two questions, whether the withdrawal will be February 18 or February 28 or March 7 etc, and whether the Israeli outposts are included in those dates. Most likely February 18/28/etc will not include the outposts

Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?

denizz

3 months ago

Israel wants to delay withdrawal from maroun el ras and the outskirts of several villages until February 28 afaik

0

denizz

3 months ago

Most sources suggest there’s are two questions, whether the withdrawal will be February 18 or February 28 or March 7 etc, and whether the Israeli outposts are included in those dates. Most likely February 18/28/etc will not include the outposts

Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?

denizz

3 months ago

Yes but the report isn’t accurate afaik “ On the ground, sources following the developments indicated that the next step in the deployment of the Lebanese army is expected to take place before the end of this week in Blida and Mays al-Jabal, after the army deployed on Sunday and Monday in Rab Thalathin, Bani Hayyan and Taloussa. According to the sources, the army was informed that the occupation forces will withdraw from a number of other towns that they still occupy in the central and eastern sectors. But other towns will not witness a withdrawal soon, but will be subject to special arrangements due to their direct contact with the colonies, such as Maroun al-Ras, the outskirts of Aitaroun, Blida, Mays al-Jabal, Adaisseh, Kfar Kila, and al-Wazzani, ” Israel will likely retain some villages past February 18 until February 28 and the outposts longer

1

denizz

3 months ago

Most sources suggest there’s are two questions, whether the withdrawal will be February 18 or February 28 or March 7 etc, and whether the Israeli outposts are included in those dates. Most likely February 18/28/etc will not include the outposts

Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?

denizz

3 months ago

This is a confusion imo. Israel wants until at least February 28 to complete the withdrawal from remaining areas excluding the outposts, primarily in the eastern sector

0

denizz

3 months ago

Most sources suggest there’s are two questions, whether the withdrawal will be February 18 or February 28 or March 7 etc, and whether the Israeli outposts are included in those dates. Most likely February 18/28/etc will not include the outposts

Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?

denizz

3 months ago

Most sources suggest there’s are two questions, whether the withdrawal will be February 18 or February 28 or March 7 etc, and whether the Israeli outposts are included in those dates. Most likely February 18/28/etc will not include the outposts

3

Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?

denizz

3 months ago

could have doubled your money aha

0

dealhunter

3 months ago

big wall at 27 cents? do you think its worth it?

Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?

denizz

3 months ago

I'm aight -- all part of the game. Belatedly thinking the signs are mixed after yd so took the opportunity to derisk.

1

denizz

3 months ago

Where is anon russian yes whale? This price is getting dumb

Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?

denizz

3 months ago

Where is anon russian yes whale? This price is getting dumb

0

Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?

denizz

3 months ago

death before dishonor

4

its.just.fire

3 months ago

fuck

Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?

denizz

3 months ago

diamond hands

4

its.just.fire

3 months ago

fuck

Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025?

denizz

3 months ago

https://www.timesofisrael.com/as-negotiators-arrive-in-doha-sources-say-its-just-for-show-pm-aims-to-brick-deal/

0

Gullible

3 months ago

Israel has already withdrawn from Gaza, and is currently "behind intended buffer zones".

Ye banned on X in February?

denizz

3 months ago

lol

4

Yuuzers

3 months ago

Rules state : resolve to "Yes" if the @kanyewest X account is suspended. He deactivate so that should count as a "suspension" even tho he did it to himself.

Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?

denizz

3 months ago

This market so dead

0

0xd46BE610A32E5C6eE094977E3CaF9aB89C525DaB-1721880533746

3 months ago

https://www.almanar.com.lb/13128194

Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?

denizz

3 months ago

Let’s put some size on the book

0

0xd46BE610A32E5C6eE094977E3CaF9aB89C525DaB-1721880533746

3 months ago

https://www.almanar.com.lb/13128194

Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025?

denizz

3 months ago

Cause phase 2 isn’t happening anymore

0

Gullible

3 months ago

Israel has already withdrawn from Gaza, and is currently "behind intended buffer zones".

Ye banned on X in February?

denizz

3 months ago

He deactivated

2

Yuuzers

3 months ago

Bro hes banned rn

Ye banned on X in February?

denizz

3 months ago

No, he deactivated

2

FREEMONEYBET

3 months ago

the @kanyewest X account is suspended

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

denizz

3 months ago

I DMed chupex, not sure if it's you

0

n/a

3 months ago

Here's my assessment regarding Tartus naval base, I feel like we are all due for a good debate in this market after all. Poly didn't let me type all that in chat so you'll have to read it on the link..

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

denizz

3 months ago

actually I could do even 18 for lebanon. no interest in the book was firmer than i thought.

0

0xd46BE610A32E5C6eE094977E3CaF9aB89C525DaB-1721880533746

3 months ago

It is over. Please. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/02/06/syria-defense-minister-russia-bases/

Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?

denizz

3 months ago

why do you say that?

0

Prophet👻

3 months ago

The IDF decided on Sunday to lift restrictions on residents returning to their homes in northern Israel starting March 1, nearly a year and a half after they were evacuated due to Hezbollah attacks.

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

the reason this went thru was the fact that they formally referred to the "interim government" of the "Syrian Arab Republic" and to cabinet ministers by the formal titles that they claim.

1

Pikachustan

3 months ago

Russia recognized new regime? What?

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

denizz

3 months ago

Lebanon it’s mostly my orders on the book anyways so that’s a fair price

0

0xd46BE610A32E5C6eE094977E3CaF9aB89C525DaB-1721880533746

3 months ago

It is over. Please. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/02/06/syria-defense-minister-russia-bases/

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

denizz

3 months ago

Lebanon 20k for 23?

0

0xd46BE610A32E5C6eE094977E3CaF9aB89C525DaB-1721880533746

3 months ago

It is over. Please. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/02/06/syria-defense-minister-russia-bases/

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

denizz

3 months ago

Lebanon?

0

0xd46BE610A32E5C6eE094977E3CaF9aB89C525DaB-1721880533746

3 months ago

It is over. Please. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/02/06/syria-defense-minister-russia-bases/

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

denizz

3 months ago

Which withdrawal

0

0xd46BE610A32E5C6eE094977E3CaF9aB89C525DaB-1721880533746

3 months ago

It is over. Please. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/02/06/syria-defense-minister-russia-bases/

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

denizz

3 months ago

I could buy 20k for 77

1

0xd46BE610A32E5C6eE094977E3CaF9aB89C525DaB-1721880533746

3 months ago

It is over. Please. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/02/06/syria-defense-minister-russia-bases/

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

denizz

3 months ago

Aight well lmk if you change your mind. Could put up 20k at 88

0

0xd46BE610A32E5C6eE094977E3CaF9aB89C525DaB-1721880533746

3 months ago

It is over. Please. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/02/06/syria-defense-minister-russia-bases/

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

denizz

3 months ago

I can even give you size at 89

0

0xd46BE610A32E5C6eE094977E3CaF9aB89C525DaB-1721880533746

3 months ago

It is over. Please. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/02/06/syria-defense-minister-russia-bases/

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

denizz

3 months ago

buy me out then daddy

0

0xd46BE610A32E5C6eE094977E3CaF9aB89C525DaB-1721880533746

3 months ago

It is over. Please. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/02/06/syria-defense-minister-russia-bases/

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

denizz

3 months ago

full withdrawal will only come when the negotiations break down and the russian lease is terminated

0

n/a

3 months ago

Here's my assessment regarding Tartus naval base, I feel like we are all due for a good debate in this market after all. Poly didn't let me type all that in chat so you'll have to read it on the link..

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

denizz

3 months ago

not counting on but hoping for

0

n/a

3 months ago

Here's my assessment regarding Tartus naval base, I feel like we are all due for a good debate in this market after all. Poly didn't let me type all that in chat so you'll have to read it on the link..

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

denizz

3 months ago

they'll come back if they can

0

n/a

3 months ago

Here's my assessment regarding Tartus naval base, I feel like we are all due for a good debate in this market after all. Poly didn't let me type all that in chat so you'll have to read it on the link..

Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025?

denizz

3 months ago

Anyways good call on fading here

0

Gullible

3 months ago

Israel has already withdrawn from Gaza, and is currently "behind intended buffer zones".

Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025?

denizz

3 months ago

but worded deceptively

0

Gullible

3 months ago

Israel has already withdrawn from Gaza, and is currently "behind intended buffer zones".

Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025?

denizz

3 months ago

Probably you're thinking of a statement the PMO put out. They would still have to withdraw during phase 2 but it was denying that they would withdraw at the beginning of phase 2 iirc

0

Gullible

3 months ago

Israel has already withdrawn from Gaza, and is currently "behind intended buffer zones".

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

denizz

3 months ago

You should consider also: the dates for the syrian national dialogue and transitional govt accession (supposedly early march)

0

n/a

3 months ago

Here's my assessment regarding Tartus naval base, I feel like we are all due for a good debate in this market after all. Poly didn't let me type all that in chat so you'll have to read it on the link..

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

denizz

3 months ago

Are you on discord?

0

n/a

3 months ago

Here's my assessment regarding Tartus naval base, I feel like we are all due for a good debate in this market after all. Poly didn't let me type all that in chat so you'll have to read it on the link..

Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025?

denizz

3 months ago

I'm trying to learn from your based swing trading tactics tho

0

Gullible

3 months ago

Israel has already withdrawn from Gaza, and is currently "behind intended buffer zones".

Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025?

denizz

3 months ago

I disagree. They are meant to withdraw from Philadephi in phase 2 to get the remaining hostages. That was looking decent until Trump kind of blew things up with his recent statements. In any case, withdrawal this year is likely. We're only in Feb.

0

Gullible

3 months ago

Israel has already withdrawn from Gaza, and is currently "behind intended buffer zones".

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

denizz

3 months ago

Nice work. You may have a point that yes is undervalued. However, the political timeline is more against you than the military timeline.

2

n/a

3 months ago

Here's my assessment regarding Tartus naval base, I feel like we are all due for a good debate in this market after all. Poly didn't let me type all that in chat so you'll have to read it on the link..

Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?

denizz

3 months ago

I love every random Lebanese village equally

0

n/a

3 months ago

Al-Akhbar correspondent: The deployment of the Lebanese army has begun in Rab El Thalathine.

Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?

denizz

3 months ago

No

0

n/a

3 months ago

Al-Akhbar correspondent: The deployment of the Lebanese army has begun in Rab El Thalathine.

Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025?

denizz

3 months ago

The main thing is they haven’t withdrawn from the philadelphi corridor which should not count as a buffer zone

0

Gullible

3 months ago

Israel has already withdrawn from Gaza, and is currently "behind intended buffer zones".

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

Interesting

1

CometoJesusMoment

3 months ago

US will never recognize new syrian government because there is a partnership between US and YPG/PYD/SDG

Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?

denizz

3 months ago

I care 😿😿

1

n/a

3 months ago

Al-Akhbar correspondent: The deployment of the Lebanese army has begun in Rab El Thalathine.

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

I think this is superseded by the January 29 press release. However this would have been good to raise in a dispute

1

justgoingby

3 months ago

on the Russian version of the Foreign Ministry's website, in the "about the country" section, Bashar al-Assad is still president https://mid.ru/ru/maps/sy/1993528/ "The political system of the SAR is a presidential republic. The head of state, according to the new constitution (adopted on February 26, 2012), is elected by direct elections (previously - by a national referendum). The term of office is 7 years. Since July 2000, the president is Bashar al-Assad (he was re-elected in June 2014 and in May 2021). Vice President is Najah Attar."

Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?

denizz

3 months ago

I think it’s a genuine report. Good news for peace if not necessarily for yes holders

0

n/a

3 months ago

Israeli army radio: We are heading towards a complete withdrawal of the Israeli army from the eastern border sector in southern Lebanon.

Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?

denizz

3 months ago

link?

0

n/a

3 months ago

Israeli army radio: We are heading towards a complete withdrawal of the Israeli army from the eastern border sector in southern Lebanon.

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 15?

denizz

3 months ago

This will likely be discussed as continuation of phase 1, so it will be a no

2

dealhunter

3 months ago

if the ceasefire continues past march 15 but isnt called phase 2, does that count as Y or N?

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

Is that the correct link?

0

justgoingby

3 months ago

on the Russian version of the Foreign Ministry's website, in the "about the country" section, Bashar al-Assad is still president https://mid.ru/ru/maps/sy/1993528/ "The political system of the SAR is a presidential republic. The head of state, according to the new constitution (adopted on February 26, 2012), is elected by direct elections (previously - by a national referendum). The term of office is 7 years. Since July 2000, the president is Bashar al-Assad (he was re-elected in June 2014 and in May 2021). Vice President is Najah Attar."

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

https://mid.ru/en/maps/sy/1993528/

1

Pikachustan

3 months ago

Russia recognized new regime? What?

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

on Jan 29

1

Pikachustan

3 months ago

Russia recognized new regime? What?

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

https://discord.gg/uP8R6jGT

1

UMAisSCAM

3 months ago

What evidence is there for Russia recognized the transitional government? Is this going to be another UMA quagmire?

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

*then

1

UMAisSCAM

3 months ago

What evidence is there for Russia recognized the transitional government? Is this going to be another UMA quagmire?

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

if it looks fishy than someone on the uma discord disputes it if none of the market participants do, but that didn't happen here

1

UMAisSCAM

3 months ago

What evidence is there for Russia recognized the transitional government? Is this going to be another UMA quagmire?

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

if no one disputes a proposal it goes thru afaik

1

UMAisSCAM

3 months ago

What evidence is there for Russia recognized the transitional government? Is this going to be another UMA quagmire?

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

the point wasn't the contact but rather the language they used in the press release

1

denizz

3 months ago

Like KSA, Turkey, and Germany, Russia has acknowledged the current administration as the “interim government” of the “Syrian Arab Republic,” and referred to cabinet members by their claimed titles.

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

No one disputed the proposal. See below for discussion.

1

UMAisSCAM

3 months ago

What evidence is there for Russia recognized the transitional government? Is this going to be another UMA quagmire?

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

Both are ministry of foreign affairs press releases. Russia may be trying to have it both ways given their other press release that you cited, but they gave us enough to resolve the bet by the same standard applied to the other three markets. I think it would have been very difficult for you to succeed in a UMA dispute.

1

Apollo-ancient

3 months ago

Can anyone give information about recognition EU and Russia - Syria goverment? not contacts? I read about Russian official position, no good words. Link: https://www.mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/themes/id/1994459/

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

Why do you think the German and Russian statements are different?

1

Apollo-ancient

3 months ago

Lavrov Minister of Foreign Affairs 04/02/2024 English: There are big problems in Syria, including the problems of the government, which is now embodied by the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, A. Sharaa, with the groups that were part of this structure (we can talk about this separately). After the change of power in the SAR, the dialogue and mutual understanding between them did not go well. It is necessary to actively, constructively, without trying to score geopolitical points, but thinking about the future of the Syrian people, promote a national dialogue. To do this, it is necessary to unite the efforts of all external players who can influence this situation. Attempts to remove Russia, China, and Iran from the process of external support for the Syrian settlement are hardly dictated by good intentions. They just reveal the West's plans to push its competitors to external, secondary positions.

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

The German and Russian press releases are directly comparable.

1

Apollo-ancient

3 months ago

Can anyone give information about recognition EU and Russia - Syria goverment? not contacts? I read about Russian official position, no good words. Link: https://www.mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/themes/id/1994459/

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

disputing would be a good way to lose $1500

1

Apollo-ancient

3 months ago

Lavrov Minister of Foreign Affairs 04/02/2024 English: There are big problems in Syria, including the problems of the government, which is now embodied by the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, A. Sharaa, with the groups that were part of this structure (we can talk about this separately). After the change of power in the SAR, the dialogue and mutual understanding between them did not go well. It is necessary to actively, constructively, without trying to score geopolitical points, but thinking about the future of the Syrian people, promote a national dialogue. To do this, it is necessary to unite the efforts of all external players who can influence this situation. Attempts to remove Russia, China, and Iran from the process of external support for the Syrian settlement are hardly dictated by good intentions. They just reveal the West's plans to push its competitors to external, secondary positions.

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

They acknowledged them as the interim government of the Syrian Arab Republic in this formal statement. This evidence of formal recognition is the same as what was used to resolve the other 3 markets.

1

denizz

3 months ago

Like KSA, Turkey, and Germany, Russia has acknowledged the current administration as the “interim government” of the “Syrian Arab Republic,” and referred to cabinet members by their claimed titles.

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

denizz

3 months ago

thanks

1

Lev188

3 months ago

As I understand it, even now not a single person can provide any evidence that there is even one Russian employee in the port. If there is no evidence that there are Russian personnel there, then there are none. I don't understand why, given such a situation, for "yes" 18%?

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

See below about russia

1

Apollo-ancient

3 months ago

Can anyone give information about recognition EU and Russia - Syria goverment? not contacts? I read about Russian official position, no good words. Link: https://www.mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/themes/id/1994459/

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

The EU market was resolved based on this https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/aktuelles/pressemitteilungen/bundeskanzler-scholz-telefoniert-mit-dem-uebergangspraesidenten-von-syrien-ahmed-al-scharaa-2333990

1

Apollo-ancient

3 months ago

Can anyone give information about recognition EU and Russia - Syria goverment? not contacts? I read about Russian official position, no good words. Link: https://www.mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/themes/id/1994459/

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

“On January 28, an official Russian inter-agency delegation, led by Special Representative of the President of the Russian Federation for the Middle East and Africa and Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov visited Damascus. This visit marked the first of its kind following the change of administration in the Syrian Arab Republic. ….Participants also included members of **Syria’s interim government: Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani and Minister of Health Maher al-Sharaa.**”

1

denizz

3 months ago

Like KSA, Turkey, and Germany, Russia has acknowledged the current administration as the “interim government” of the “Syrian Arab Republic,” and referred to cabinet members by their claimed titles.

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

Like KSA, Turkey, and Germany, Russia has acknowledged the current administration as the “interim government” of the “Syrian Arab Republic,” and referred to cabinet members by their claimed titles.

1

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

weird, i still don't see the counter

1

Emptiness.

3 months ago

I just proposed EU nation YES.

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

how did you do that? it's still showing me final review, no option to propose and no counter.

1

Emptiness.

3 months ago

I just proposed EU nation YES.

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

Seems recognition already happened per the statement that guwop posed

1

Apollo-ancient

3 months ago

https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-takes-step-towards-recognising-afghanistans-taliban-government-2024-12-10/

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

denizz

3 months ago

which ship is on the way?

0

Lev188

3 months ago

As I understand it, even now not a single person can provide any evidence that there is even one Russian employee in the port. If there is no evidence that there are Russian personnel there, then there are none. I don't understand why, given such a situation, for "yes" 18%?

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

Hts disbanded the same day that Russia recognized the Syrian government

1

Apollo-ancient

3 months ago

https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-takes-step-towards-recognising-afghanistans-taliban-government-2024-12-10/

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

Also hts disbanded the same day Russia recognized the Syrian government

1

Apollo-ancient

3 months ago

In December 2024 Russia only took steps forward recognition Taliban government. But not recognise yet. Why market think that Russia will recognise Syria government so fast?

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

Somewhat different situation since the Taliban actually replaced the Islamic republic of Afghanistan with the Islamic emirate of Afghanistan

0

Apollo-ancient

3 months ago

In December 2024 Russia only took steps forward recognition Taliban government. But not recognise yet. Why market think that Russia will recognise Syria government so fast?

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

saying that the administration is derived from HTS and other recently disbanded groups is factual, and I don't think it contradicts the formal recognition apparent in the earlier Russian statement.

2

Falafelkungen

3 months ago

Russian foreign minister Lavrov 4 days ago(!!!) "Syria faces major problems, including issues with the current leadership represented by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham leader Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa and the groups that were part of this organisation. After the change of power in Syria, they didn’t get along in terms of establishing a dialogue and understanding each other. What they should do is try to promote national dialogue as best they can, without seeking to gain geopolitical points, but thinking primarily about the future of the Syrian people. "

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

From this statement, we can see that Russia officially recognizes the administration in Damascus as the interim government of the Syrian Arab Republic.

2

Falafelkungen

3 months ago

Russian foreign minister Lavrov 4 days ago(!!!) "Syria faces major problems, including issues with the current leadership represented by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham leader Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa and the groups that were part of this organisation. After the change of power in Syria, they didn’t get along in terms of establishing a dialogue and understanding each other. What they should do is try to promote national dialogue as best they can, without seeking to gain geopolitical points, but thinking primarily about the future of the Syrian people. "

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

"On January 28, an official Russian inter-agency delegation, led by Special Representative of the President of the Russian Federation for the Middle East and Africa and Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov visited Damascus. This visit marked the first of its kind following the change of administration in the Syrian Arab Republic. ….Participants also included members of **Syria’s interim government: Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani and Minister of Health Maher al-Sharaa.**"

2

Falafelkungen

3 months ago

Russian foreign minister Lavrov 4 days ago(!!!) "Syria faces major problems, including issues with the current leadership represented by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham leader Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa and the groups that were part of this organisation. After the change of power in Syria, they didn’t get along in terms of establishing a dialogue and understanding each other. What they should do is try to promote national dialogue as best they can, without seeking to gain geopolitical points, but thinking primarily about the future of the Syrian people. "

Will Trump recognize Somaliland in first 100 days?

denizz

3 months ago

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cp3j1qn0499o.amp

1

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

Yes 2.41% (115,044.21) Early request 97.59% (4,665,805.21) PoV: you're an elite UMA scammer

3

Will Trump visit Gaza in first 100 days?

denizz

3 months ago

He said he would iirc

1

iamhungry

3 months ago

Why would he go to Gaza? It makes no sense for him to go there

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

My highest order is at 12. Could fill you at 10.5 for orders by the thousand

0

denizz

3 months ago

Guwop I’ll give you discounts for buying American base with size

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

Guwop I’ll give you discounts for buying American base with size

0

Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?

denizz

3 months ago

Where are you from?

0

its.just.fire

3 months ago

can we get clarification the rules please? what do they mean by For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanon territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue.? if israel says they left lebanon but kept some forces at a few outpost,does that count for Y or N?

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

You realize uma is about to vote too early?

0

Guwop

3 months ago

Car bought 1,000 Yes for EU nation at 69.9c ($699)

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

🔥

0

Guwop

3 months ago

Car bought 1,000 Yes for EU nation at 69.9c ($699)

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

Based

0

Guwop

3 months ago

denizz sold 10,238 No for EU nation at 30.1c ($3,081)

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

yeah this might be gg for russia

1

denizz

3 months ago

This seems like a yes to me

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

Russia has said things very similar to what Germany/Turkey did.

1

denizz

3 months ago

This seems like a yes to me

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

It will go p4 so the rules are what they are. Don’t cry about it. We both made money betting on our beliefs so chin up

0

CometoJesusMoment

3 months ago

deniz kardes aldin mi karini. manipulasyoncu essek seni

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

“Interim authorities” is an informal workaround

0

CometoJesusMoment

3 months ago

deniz kardes aldin mi karini. manipulasyoncu essek seni

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

The proposers from yesterday are still gonna lose their bonds

0

CometoJesusMoment

3 months ago

deniz kardes aldin mi karini. manipulasyoncu essek seni

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

Bro i didn’t manipulate anything. This wasn’t proposable yd but it is today

0

CometoJesusMoment

3 months ago

deniz kardes aldin mi karini. manipulasyoncu essek seni

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

Russia is looking bad for no tho

2

denizz

3 months ago

This seems like a yes to me

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

EU I mean. Germany

1

denizz

3 months ago

This seems like a yes to me

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

This seems like a yes to me

2

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

No reference to his title

0

greengasper

3 months ago

EU foreign policy chief invites Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani to Brussels

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

“ "I can confirm that the EU's top diplomat invited Asaad Shaibani to visit Brussels during their meeting in Riyadh”

1

greengasper

3 months ago

EU foreign policy chief invites Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani to Brussels

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

Karin da haremime girince ben de gidecegim.

0

CometoJesusMoment

3 months ago

deniz al karini cik git. manipulasyonu birak bilader.

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

this? https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/eu-ministers-agree-roadmap-ease-syria-sanctions-2025-01-27/

1

THEBookmaker

3 months ago

Macron’s Actions: Congratulated al-Sharaa and invited him to France. Hosted a Syria conference in Paris (February 13, 2025) to discuss reforms. Advocated for sanctions relief but linked it to reforms, not recognition. These actions fall under conditional engagement, not recognition. France’s embassy in Damascus remains under sanctions-era protocols. EU Guidelines: The EU’s December 2024 framework requires Syria to: Hold UN-monitored elections (no timeline set). Protect minorities and disband militias (unresolved HTS consolidation). Ensure accountability for war crimes (no progress). France adheres to these benchmarks, making unilateral recognition politically untenable.

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

The latter two were at profit to get cash

0

emaminek

3 months ago

either putin himself just made a polymarket account or this doesn't make any sense because there are no news anywhere about anything between russia and syria, all the other russia-syria markets haven't even reacted

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

Where can I read about framework?

2

THEBookmaker

3 months ago

Macron’s Actions: Congratulated al-Sharaa and invited him to France. Hosted a Syria conference in Paris (February 13, 2025) to discuss reforms. Advocated for sanctions relief but linked it to reforms, not recognition. These actions fall under conditional engagement, not recognition. France’s embassy in Damascus remains under sanctions-era protocols. EU Guidelines: The EU’s December 2024 framework requires Syria to: Hold UN-monitored elections (no timeline set). Protect minorities and disband militias (unresolved HTS consolidation). Ensure accountability for war crimes (no progress). France adheres to these benchmarks, making unilateral recognition politically untenable.

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

Slovenia and France are using harmonized language

0

MisTKy

3 months ago

interim = temporary and intended to be used or accepted until something

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

France: "President of the Syrian transitional authorities" Turkey: "President of the Syrian Arab Republic"

0

MisTKy

3 months ago

interim = temporary and intended to be used or accepted until something

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

Ski to surf in just 13 minutes by Apache!

1

CarJunior

3 months ago

Yes holders are dumb, they think that if you call someone it automatically means you think he is a president. That is ridiculous, Macron just asked him if the Golan Heights was a good destination for skiing. Dont overthink about his phonecall

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

interim isn't the problem here.

2

MisTKy

3 months ago

interim = temporary and intended to be used or accepted until something

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

Golan Heights Gaz-a-Lago package vacay when?

4

CarJunior

3 months ago

Yes holders are dumb, they think that if you call someone it automatically means you think he is a president. That is ridiculous, Macron just asked him if the Golan Heights was a good destination for skiing. Dont overthink about his phonecall

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

I'm pretty competent with UMA disputes and I think it will go no, genuinely

0

MisTKy

3 months ago

Interim Authorities means still Authorities so...

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

Republique vs autoritees

1

greengasper

3 months ago

Imagine a world where the foreign minister of Country A, during an official diplomatic visit to Country B, officially recognizes the head of Country B as the president but still does not mean a formal recognition. That’s what No Scammers are trying to tell us

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

de facto but they avoid a formal statement

0

greengasper

3 months ago

Imagine a world where the foreign minister of Country A, during an official diplomatic visit to Country B, officially recognizes the head of Country B as the president but still does not mean a formal recognition. That’s what No Scammers are trying to tell us

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

France explicitly used the term president for something other than the Syrian Arab Republic. That's the EU diplomatic line. Slovenian statements are consistent with this.

1

MisTKy

3 months ago

Interim Authorities means still Authorities so...

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

"nterim President of the Syrian transitional authorities, Mr. Ahmed Al-Charaa"

0

MisTKy

3 months ago

Interim Authorities means still Authorities so...

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

president of the "interim authorities" lower case

2

greengasper

3 months ago

Imagine a world where the foreign minister of Country A, during an official diplomatic visit to Country B, officially recognizes the head of Country B as the president but still does not mean a formal recognition. That’s what No Scammers are trying to tell us

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

Authorities is a weasel word. Not an amazing analogy but consider the conceptual difference between the Palestinian Authority and the government of the State of Palestine.

1

MisTKy

3 months ago

Interim Authorities means still Authorities so...

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

They use the term authorities to be cagey. They could have easily said interim govt or Syrian Arab Republic but didn't

3

MisTKy

3 months ago

Interim Authorities means still Authorities so...

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

It's more formal than authoritahs but less formal than government

0

MisTKy

3 months ago

Also turkey market passed same so...end of story

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

I have a cost basis of .14 and No is favored

2

denizz

3 months ago

Mistky at least stop buying. You can wipe out your whole pnl on this

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

highly recommend derisking

2

denizz

3 months ago

Mistky at least stop buying. You can wipe out your whole pnl on this

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

Mistky at least stop buying. You can wipe out your whole pnl on this

4

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

"authorities" is them being cagey about formal recognition of the Syrian government

2

MisTKy

3 months ago

Also turkey market passed same so...end of story

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

Turkey we had "President of the Syrian Arab Republic" not "President of the interim Syrian authorities"

3

MisTKy

3 months ago

Also turkey market passed same so...end of story

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

I severely doubt it

0

MisTKy

3 months ago

Oficial statment we solve many markets like this with tweets https://x.com/MZEZ_RS/status/1887510517889020261

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

"interim authorities" not "interim government"

0

MisTKy

3 months ago

Oficial statment we solve many markets like this with tweets https://x.com/MZEZ_RS/status/1887510517889020261

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

"formally recognizes any new government" key word formally

0

denizz

3 months ago

The Slovenian statements are the same as the French one. They're pushing the envelope on not formally recognizing, but they still haven't crossed the line.

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

The EU party line is "interim authorities"

1

denizz

3 months ago

The Slovenian statements are the same as the French one. They're pushing the envelope on not formally recognizing, but they still haven't crossed the line.

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

"A historic opportunity and an important responsibility lie before the interim Syrian authorities"

1

denizz

3 months ago

The Slovenian statements are the same as the French one. They're pushing the envelope on not formally recognizing, but they still haven't crossed the line.

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

Turkey and KSA had "President of the Syrian Arab Republic"

0

Glued

3 months ago

Macron congratulates President, invites him to France. Same as Saudi Arabia and Turkey. https://www.arabnews.com/node/2589167/middle-east

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

"President of the Syrian interim authorities"

0

Glued

3 months ago

Macron congratulates President, invites him to France. Same as Saudi Arabia and Turkey. https://www.arabnews.com/node/2589167/middle-east

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

The Slovenian statements are the same as the French one. They're pushing the envelope on not formally recognizing, but they still haven't crossed the line.

1

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

sigh

0

greengasper

3 months ago

There is absolutely no difference from what was enough to resolve the market to 'yes' for Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and France; the market is basically resolved https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-speak-syrias-president-ahmad-al-sharaa/

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

Destantis isn't proposing bc he's realized he'll lose

0

greengasper

3 months ago

There is absolutely no difference from what was enough to resolve the market to 'yes' for Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and France; the market is basically resolved https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-speak-syrias-president-ahmad-al-sharaa/

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

I recommend selling rather than getting angry and name-calling. BTW you realize that every hour that this isn't proposed makes it less likely to pass UMA right? You could put up 750 for the bond but that would be a terrible financial decision.

1

greengasper

3 months ago

There is absolutely no difference from what was enough to resolve the market to 'yes' for Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and France; the market is basically resolved https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-speak-syrias-president-ahmad-al-sharaa/

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

I'm like 13 for 15 on market disputes but please keep buying by all means

0

greengasper

3 months ago

There is absolutely no difference from what was enough to resolve the market to 'yes' for Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and France; the market is basically resolved https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-speak-syrias-president-ahmad-al-sharaa/

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

If you can find an official french reference to, for example, "President interimaire de la Republique arabe syrienne" then this would resolve yes

1

greengasper

3 months ago

There is absolutely no difference from what was enough to resolve the market to 'yes' for Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and France; the market is basically resolved https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-speak-syrias-president-ahmad-al-sharaa/

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

There's no need to lie. The statements that were used to resolve Turkey and KSA phrased differently from France's

0

greengasper

3 months ago

There is absolutely no difference from what was enough to resolve the market to 'yes' for Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and France; the market is basically resolved https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-speak-syrias-president-ahmad-al-sharaa/

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

@aluftan @amused hmu on discord

0

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

no why

0

Guwop

3 months ago

The infamous map: "I've just been to a symposium of the Archaeology Department at Hebrew University and they reminded me that the biblical city of Golan (namesake of the Golan region) is actually well east of any IDF positions. See this map they referred me: https://bibleatlas.org/full/golan.htm"

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

It was my mistake for thinking that PM was more professional than it is and would stick to its decentralized system after letting it run for 10 days

1

Guwop

3 months ago

Denizz literally has an opportunity to sell no and buy yes but is throwing it away because he is a notorious scammer.

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

I've never owned a UMA token

1

Guwop

3 months ago

Denizz literally has an opportunity to sell no and buy yes but is throwing it away because he is a notorious scammer.

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

how is reposting my hilarious jokes some kind of gotcha?

0

Guwop

3 months ago

The infamous map: "I've just been to a symposium of the Archaeology Department at Hebrew University and they reminded me that the biblical city of Golan (namesake of the Golan region) is actually well east of any IDF positions. See this map they referred me: https://bibleatlas.org/full/golan.htm"

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

I don't think PM should wait 10 days to overrule UMA while the market trades millions in volume -- extremely unprofessional

1

Guwop

3 months ago

Denizz literally has an opportunity to sell no and buy yes but is throwing it away because he is a notorious scammer.

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

I argued for a yes resolution on that market twice in the UMA discussions but they ruled the opposite way and i accepted their decision.

1

Guwop

3 months ago

Denizz literally has an opportunity to sell no and buy yes but is throwing it away because he is a notorious scammer.

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

I don't think PM should overrule UMA after 3 votes as that is erratic behavior. Market resolution should be predictable or there will never be real liquidity on here.

0

Guwop

3 months ago

Denizz literally has an opportunity to sell no and buy yes but is throwing it away because he is a notorious scammer.

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

Let me put it this way. Everyone knows that PM is retarded. I never called deltachild or wolk scammers even tho they cost me $50K and I do find them annoying. We had a disagreement that's all

0

Guwop

3 months ago

Denizz literally has an opportunity to sell no and buy yes but is throwing it away because he is a notorious scammer.

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

I disagree with how they resolved that market. That's not "crying".

0

Guwop

3 months ago

Denizz literally has an opportunity to sell no and buy yes but is throwing it away because he is a notorious scammer.

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

I never lie on poly. People just cry about scams whenever they lose

0

Guwop

3 months ago

Denizz literally has an opportunity to sell no and buy yes but is throwing it away because he is a notorious scammer.

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

being right = a scam

0

Guwop

3 months ago

Denizz literally has an opportunity to sell no and buy yes but is throwing it away because he is a notorious scammer.

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

have you noticed that I have 100x your PnL in the opposite direction?

2

Guwop

3 months ago

Denizz literally has an opportunity to sell no and buy yes but is throwing it away because he is a notorious scammer.

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

"transitional authorities" not "transitional government" or "Syrian Arab Republic"

2

denizz

3 months ago

"In line with his historic commitment to the Syrian people, the President of the Republic took the initiative of a telephone call with the interim President of the Syrian transitional authorities, Mr. Ahmed Al-Charaa, this Wednesday, February 5, 2025, in view of the international conference for Syria which will be held on February 13, 2025 in Paris."

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

French Republic is capitalized, Syrian transitional authorities isn't

0

denizz

3 months ago

"In line with his historic commitment to the Syrian people, the President of the Republic took the initiative of a telephone call with the interim President of the Syrian transitional authorities, Mr. Ahmed Al-Charaa, this Wednesday, February 5, 2025, in view of the international conference for Syria which will be held on February 13, 2025 in Paris."

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

"In line with his historic commitment to the Syrian people, the President of the Republic took the initiative of a telephone call with the interim President of the Syrian transitional authorities, Mr. Ahmed Al-Charaa, this Wednesday, February 5, 2025, in view of the international conference for Syria which will be held on February 13, 2025 in Paris."

0

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

Only the text of the French statement will matter

1

Guwop

3 months ago

It's over: buy Europe Yes.

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

not according to France

1

greengasper

3 months ago

it's done https://www.elysee.fr/emmanuel-macron/2025/02/05/entretien-telephonique-avec-ahmed-al-charaa-president-interimaire

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

France still recognizes HTS as a terrorist org

0

greengasper

3 months ago

it's done https://www.elysee.fr/emmanuel-macron/2025/02/05/entretien-telephonique-avec-ahmed-al-charaa-president-interimaire

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

Propose then if you want to lose an additional 750

1

greengasper

3 months ago

it's done https://www.elysee.fr/emmanuel-macron/2025/02/05/entretien-telephonique-avec-ahmed-al-charaa-president-interimaire

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

France capitalized French Republic but not Syrian interim authorities

0

denizz

3 months ago

French statement https://www.elysee.fr/emmanuel-macron/2025/02/05/entretien-telephonique-avec-ahmed-al-charaa-president-interimaire-des-autorites-syriennes-de-transition

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

Saudi Arabia said President of the Syrian Arab Republic

0

denizz

3 months ago

French statement https://www.elysee.fr/emmanuel-macron/2025/02/05/entretien-telephonique-avec-ahmed-al-charaa-president-interimaire-des-autorites-syriennes-de-transition

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

France only says interim authorities

0

denizz

3 months ago

French statement https://www.elysee.fr/emmanuel-macron/2025/02/05/entretien-telephonique-avec-ahmed-al-charaa-president-interimaire-des-autorites-syriennes-de-transition

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

Turkey said interim President of the Syrian Arab Republic

0

denizz

3 months ago

French statement https://www.elysee.fr/emmanuel-macron/2025/02/05/entretien-telephonique-avec-ahmed-al-charaa-president-interimaire-des-autorites-syriennes-de-transition

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

You can propose but I’ll dispute

0

denizz

3 months ago

French statement https://www.elysee.fr/emmanuel-macron/2025/02/05/entretien-telephonique-avec-ahmed-al-charaa-president-interimaire-des-autorites-syriennes-de-transition

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

Not capitalized

0

denizz

3 months ago

French statement https://www.elysee.fr/emmanuel-macron/2025/02/05/entretien-telephonique-avec-ahmed-al-charaa-president-interimaire-des-autorites-syriennes-de-transition

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

Transitional authorities not transitional government

1

denizz

3 months ago

French statement https://www.elysee.fr/emmanuel-macron/2025/02/05/entretien-telephonique-avec-ahmed-al-charaa-president-interimaire-des-autorites-syriennes-de-transition

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

French statement https://www.elysee.fr/emmanuel-macron/2025/02/05/entretien-telephonique-avec-ahmed-al-charaa-president-interimaire-des-autorites-syriennes-de-transition

2

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

Have you read the French statement?

0

Guwop

3 months ago

It's over: buy Europe Yes.

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

We need the French statement

1

denizz

3 months ago

France has not formally recognized the Syrian govt imo

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

That’s a Syrian statement not a French one

0

Guwop

3 months ago

It's over: buy Europe Yes.

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

Right but how do they refer to the Syrian president 🤔

0

greengasper

3 months ago

For its part, the Elysee Palace told BFMTV that it was "the President of the Republic who took the initiative for a phone call with" Ahmad al-Chareh. The French president is the first Western leader to speak with the new Syrian President https://www.bfmtv.com/politique/elysee/syrie-emmanuel-macron-invite-le-nouveau-dirigeant-a-une-visite-officielle-en-france_AD-202502050987.html

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

If I’m officially invited to visit macron it doesn’t make me President of the republic of polyscam

0

greengasper

3 months ago

BFMTV, the largest news outlet in France, confirmed the (phone call) from the French presidency, Elysee itself , and stated that Chraa received an official invitation to visit Emmanuel Macron. That's the consensus of credible reporting. https://www.bfmtv.com/politique/elysee/syrie-emmanuel-macron-invite-le-nouveau-dirigeant-a-une-visite-officielle-en-france_AD-202502050987.html

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

Link to official congratulations?

0

denizz

3 months ago

France has not formally recognized the Syrian govt imo

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

President of the French Republic

1

greengasper

3 months ago

For its part, the Elysee Palace told BFMTV that it was "the President of the Republic who took the initiative for a phone call with" Ahmad al-Chareh. The French president is the first Western leader to speak with the new Syrian President https://www.bfmtv.com/politique/elysee/syrie-emmanuel-macron-invite-le-nouveau-dirigeant-a-une-visite-officielle-en-france_AD-202502050987.html

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

Proof?

0

denizz

3 months ago

France has not formally recognized the Syrian govt imo

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

France has not formally recognized the Syrian govt imo

1

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

Conventional wisdom was that Turkey wouldn’t recognize until the sdf and Damascus reached a deal.

0

denizz

3 months ago

Amalek gave up. This just needs to be proposed again by anyone with $750. I'm busy atm.

U.S. withdraws from Syria before July?

denizz

3 months ago

they forgot to update the end date from the announcement market

0

taerv534

3 months ago

Title: "before July", Estimated end date: "Apr 29"

Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?

denizz

3 months ago

the rules are retarded but they are clear

0

its.just.fire

3 months ago

can we get clarification the rules please? what do they mean by For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanon territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue.? if israel says they left lebanon but kept some forces at a few outpost,does that count for Y or N?

Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?

denizz

3 months ago

@LebarmyOfficial

0

denizz

3 months ago

Military units were deployed in the town of Taybeh - Marjeyoun in the eastern sector and other border areas in the southern Litani region after the Israeli enemy withdrew, in coordination with the five-member committee supervising the ceasefire agreement

Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?

denizz

3 months ago

Military units were deployed in the town of Taybeh - Marjeyoun in the eastern sector and other border areas in the southern Litani region after the Israeli enemy withdrew, in coordination with the five-member committee supervising the ceasefire agreement

2

Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?

denizz

3 months ago

I don't recall such

1

Oukej

3 months ago

geniuenly why no?

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

denizz

3 months ago

bet on your beliefs

0

delta-lesson

3 months ago

Them scheduling the confirmation hearing most likely means they have the votes.

Will Netanyahu meet with MBS before April?

denizz

3 months ago

do tell

1

amshalem

3 months ago

There are confidential news on the topic...

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

Oh and apparently I don't have most of my shares anymore

1

denizz

3 months ago

Amalek gave up. This just needs to be proposed again by anyone with $750. I'm busy atm.

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

Amalek gave up. This just needs to be proposed again by anyone with $750. I'm busy atm.

1

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

Maybe he's hoping for some more ambiguous wording during the visit tomorrow. I don't think that's likely considering this was a statement from Turkey's Director of Comms and was carefully worded. Mainly he is just in too deep.

2

denizz

3 months ago

Resolution can be proposed one more time. Amalek will probably dispute it again, but it's a good way to make $250.

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

Resolution can be proposed one more time. Amalek will probably dispute it again, but it's a good way to make $250.

2

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

3-4 UMA verifiers say yes. 0 say too early.

2

denizz

3 months ago

https://discord.com/channels/718590743446290492/1335972388797415466

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

https://discord.com/channels/718590743446290492/1335972388797415466

3

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

https://x.com/fahrettinaltun/status/1886344997131190301

1

denizz

3 months ago

Head of Communications, Republic of Turkiye: Transitional President of the Syrian Arab Republic, Ahmed Shara, will pay a visit to Ankara on Tuesday, February 4, upon the invitation of our President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

Head of Communications, Republic of Turkiye: Transitional President of the Syrian Arab Republic, Ahmed Shara, will pay a visit to Ankara on Tuesday, February 4, upon the invitation of our President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

6

Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?

denizz

3 months ago

The Israelis mentioned 3-5 outposts but the Americans never approved this and Israel subsequently agreed to a feb 18 deadline for full withdrawal. The army would be interested to stay longer but maintaining the ceasefire is more important politically than a few outposts

1

Oukej

3 months ago

geniuenly why no?

Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?

denizz

3 months ago

Untrue. Link?

0

Oukej

3 months ago

geniuenly why no?

Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?

denizz

3 months ago

They’re not allowed to have any

0

Oukej

3 months ago

geniuenly why no?

Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?

denizz

3 months ago

It’s always “not happening” until it does

1

Oukej

3 months ago

geniuenly why no?

Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?

denizz

3 months ago

The withdrawal deadline is February 18

1

Oukej

3 months ago

geniuenly why no?

Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?

denizz

3 months ago

The Lebanese army is in an advanced stage of the deployment in 2/3 sectors

1

Oukej

3 months ago

geniuenly why no?

Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?

denizz

3 months ago

Military units were deployed in the town of Aitaroun - Bint Jbeil in the central sector and other border areas in the South Litani region in coordination with the five-member committee supervising the ceasefire agreement

0

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

Link?

1

greengasper

3 months ago

If an official congratulation from the Saudi Crown counts, why doesn’t the official congratulation from Turkey count?

Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?

denizz

3 months ago

I think less than that. Anyways could have been worse

0

denizz

3 months ago

shit where's the undo trade button

Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?

denizz

3 months ago

shit where's the undo trade button

1

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

(X)

2

CometoJesusMoment

3 months ago

without a democratic election, turkey will not recognize the syrian government. that is certain.

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

Didn't expect recognition already I mean

1

n/a

3 months ago

Guys I told you yesterday, only thing you had to do was to listen to me. Shara is going to saudi and turkey next week. He made his title official yesterday so that he can have an actual title during the meeting because right now (or more like yesterday) he was just the leader of the conquering group and nothing else. Now he has an official position which makes sense to have if you want to meet with actual leaders.

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

I was holding Saudi and Turkey already, but I admit I didn't take this point seriously enough

1

n/a

3 months ago

Guys I told you yesterday, only thing you had to do was to listen to me. Shara is going to saudi and turkey next week. He made his title official yesterday so that he can have an actual title during the meeting because right now (or more like yesterday) he was just the leader of the conquering group and nothing else. Now he has an official position which makes sense to have if you want to meet with actual leaders.

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

There is a big difference between Turkey and the Taliban. Turkey and HTS are thick as thieves, tho.

3

CometoJesusMoment

3 months ago

Turkey hasnt recognized it yet. turkish government is waiting for European countries to approve the recognition of the syrian government. turkey can't recognize it until Europe recognizes it. the same thing happened with the recognition of the taliban's process for the turkish government.

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

Turkey doesn't follow Europe's lead on diplomatic stuff like it did 20 years ago.

3

CometoJesusMoment

3 months ago

Turkey hasnt recognized it yet. turkish government is waiting for European countries to approve the recognition of the syrian government. turkey can't recognize it until Europe recognizes it. the same thing happened with the recognition of the taliban's process for the turkish government.

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

https://www.spa.gov.sa/N2252894

0

denizz

3 months ago

Riyadh, SANA- Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud sent a cable of congratulations to President of the Syrian Arab Republic Mr. Ahmad al-Sharaa on assuming presidency of the Syrian Arab Republic.

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

https://www.spa.gov.sa/N2252893

0

denizz

3 months ago

Riyadh, SANA- Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud sent a cable of congratulations to President of the Syrian Arab Republic Mr. Ahmad al-Sharaa on assuming presidency of the Syrian Arab Republic.

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

It was released by the Saudi Press Agency, the official Saudi state mouthpiece.

0

denizz

3 months ago

Riyadh, SANA- Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud sent a cable of congratulations to President of the Syrian Arab Republic Mr. Ahmad al-Sharaa on assuming presidency of the Syrian Arab Republic.

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

These are summit-level cables from the King and Crown Prince. It doesn't get more official.

0

denizz

3 months ago

Riyadh, SANA- Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud sent a cable of congratulations to President of the Syrian Arab Republic Mr. Ahmad al-Sharaa on assuming presidency of the Syrian Arab Republic.

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

https://www.sana.sy/en/?p=345671

0

denizz

3 months ago

Riyadh, SANA- Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud sent a cable of congratulations to President of the Syrian Arab Republic Mr. Ahmad al-Sharaa on assuming presidency of the Syrian Arab Republic.

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

His Highness, the Crown Prince said in his cable : “On the occasion of your assumption of the presidency of the Syrian Arab Republic in the transitional period, we are pleased to send to Your Excellency our sincere congratulations and best wishes for success during this period in which the brotherly Syrian people aspire to achieve their hopes and aspirations, with our wishes for Your Excellency good health and happiness, and for the brotherly Syrian people further progress and advancement.”.

0

denizz

3 months ago

Riyadh, SANA- Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud sent a cable of congratulations to President of the Syrian Arab Republic Mr. Ahmad al-Sharaa on assuming presidency of the Syrian Arab Republic.

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

For his part, His Royal Highness Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, Crown Prince and Prime Minister of Saudi Arabia, sent a cable of congratulations to President al-Sharaa on the occasion of his assumption of presidency of the Syrian Arab Republic.

0

denizz

3 months ago

Riyadh, SANA- Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud sent a cable of congratulations to President of the Syrian Arab Republic Mr. Ahmad al-Sharaa on assuming presidency of the Syrian Arab Republic.

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

The Saudi Press Agency (SPA) reported that King Salman said in the cable: “We are pleased to express to Your Excellency our congratulations on the occasion of your assumption of the presidency of the Syrian Arab Republic in the transitional period, and we wish success in leading your country towards a prosperous future that achieves the aspirations of the brotherly Syrian people, wishing Your Excellency continued health and happiness, and for the Syrian Arab Republic further progress and prosperity.”.

0

denizz

3 months ago

Riyadh, SANA- Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud sent a cable of congratulations to President of the Syrian Arab Republic Mr. Ahmad al-Sharaa on assuming presidency of the Syrian Arab Republic.

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

Riyadh, SANA- Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud sent a cable of congratulations to President of the Syrian Arab Republic Mr. Ahmad al-Sharaa on assuming presidency of the Syrian Arab Republic.

1

Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?

denizz

3 months ago

I feel like yes will appreciate when they reduce the liquidity rewards

1

WAR.MONITOR

3 months ago

@denizz dude you always win. Do you really expect war in Taiwan???

Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?

denizz

3 months ago

The Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) backfilled the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) in Marwahin and Birkat Richa, southwestern Lebanon, and Yaroun, south-central Lebanon, on January 28. Lebanese media reported on January 28 that the LAF established a military position in Boustane, south-central Lebanon.

0

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

IMO he is intentionally avoiding such direct speech

0

Fledermaus

3 months ago

The rules say: "The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the recognizing government". That means, the Turkish government has to officially admit that the people in control of Damascus are the government of Syria. The rebels in Syria created a government which they call the Syrian Transitional Government. They appointed a foreign minister named Asaad Hassan Al-Shaibani. Has Turkey recognized that he is the foreign minister of Syria and not just a rebel calling himself that? Yes, they have. The official website of the Turkish foreign ministry is referring to Asaad Hassan Al-Shaibani as "Minister of Foreign Affairs of the New Administration in Syria". This is while the same official Turkish website is reporting that the foreign minister of Turkey met with the foreign minister of Syria in a formal meeting. This is formal recognition. The market should resolve to yes now. Here is a link to the Turkish foreign ministry website that says all this: https://www.mfa.gov.tr/sayin-bakanimizin-suriye-deki-yeni-yonetimin-disisleri-bakani-esad-hasan-seybani-ile-gorusmesi-15-01-2025.en.mfa

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

IMO there need to be no weasel words in these kinds of statements. we need "foreign minister of the new syrian govt" not "foreign minister of the new syrian admin". "legitimate govt" not "legitimate partner" etc.

0

Fledermaus

3 months ago

The rules say: "The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the recognizing government". That means, the Turkish government has to officially admit that the people in control of Damascus are the government of Syria. The rebels in Syria created a government which they call the Syrian Transitional Government. They appointed a foreign minister named Asaad Hassan Al-Shaibani. Has Turkey recognized that he is the foreign minister of Syria and not just a rebel calling himself that? Yes, they have. The official website of the Turkish foreign ministry is referring to Asaad Hassan Al-Shaibani as "Minister of Foreign Affairs of the New Administration in Syria". This is while the same official Turkish website is reporting that the foreign minister of Turkey met with the foreign minister of Syria in a formal meeting. This is formal recognition. The market should resolve to yes now. Here is a link to the Turkish foreign ministry website that says all this: https://www.mfa.gov.tr/sayin-bakanimizin-suriye-deki-yeni-yonetimin-disisleri-bakani-esad-hasan-seybani-ile-gorusmesi-15-01-2025.en.mfa

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

sup

0

WarDrugs

3 months ago

https://x.com/wef/status/1882099273707462953 at 20:12 the Syrian foreign minister indirectly confirms that the Syrian transitional government (HTS controlled) is in power to June 2026

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

see fidan's answers here for their formal stance https://www.mfa.gov.tr/interview-of-he-hakan-fidan--minister-of-foreign-affairs--al-jazeera-english--18-december-2024.en.mfa

0

Fledermaus

3 months ago

The rules say: "The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the recognizing government". That means, the Turkish government has to officially admit that the people in control of Damascus are the government of Syria. The rebels in Syria created a government which they call the Syrian Transitional Government. They appointed a foreign minister named Asaad Hassan Al-Shaibani. Has Turkey recognized that he is the foreign minister of Syria and not just a rebel calling himself that? Yes, they have. The official website of the Turkish foreign ministry is referring to Asaad Hassan Al-Shaibani as "Minister of Foreign Affairs of the New Administration in Syria". This is while the same official Turkish website is reporting that the foreign minister of Turkey met with the foreign minister of Syria in a formal meeting. This is formal recognition. The market should resolve to yes now. Here is a link to the Turkish foreign ministry website that says all this: https://www.mfa.gov.tr/sayin-bakanimizin-suriye-deki-yeni-yonetimin-disisleri-bakani-esad-hasan-seybani-ile-gorusmesi-15-01-2025.en.mfa

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

I don’t think Turkey has formally recognized the government or that a proposal would be successful

0

Fledermaus

3 months ago

The rules say: "The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the recognizing government". That means, the Turkish government has to officially admit that the people in control of Damascus are the government of Syria. The rebels in Syria created a government which they call the Syrian Transitional Government. They appointed a foreign minister named Asaad Hassan Al-Shaibani. Has Turkey recognized that he is the foreign minister of Syria and not just a rebel calling himself that? Yes, they have. The official website of the Turkish foreign ministry is referring to Asaad Hassan Al-Shaibani as "Minister of Foreign Affairs of the New Administration in Syria". This is while the same official Turkish website is reporting that the foreign minister of Turkey met with the foreign minister of Syria in a formal meeting. This is formal recognition. The market should resolve to yes now. Here is a link to the Turkish foreign ministry website that says all this: https://www.mfa.gov.tr/sayin-bakanimizin-suriye-deki-yeni-yonetimin-disisleri-bakani-esad-hasan-seybani-ile-gorusmesi-15-01-2025.en.mfa

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

I don’t

0

Fledermaus

3 months ago

The rules say: "The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the recognizing government". That means, the Turkish government has to officially admit that the people in control of Damascus are the government of Syria. The rebels in Syria created a government which they call the Syrian Transitional Government. They appointed a foreign minister named Asaad Hassan Al-Shaibani. Has Turkey recognized that he is the foreign minister of Syria and not just a rebel calling himself that? Yes, they have. The official website of the Turkish foreign ministry is referring to Asaad Hassan Al-Shaibani as "Minister of Foreign Affairs of the New Administration in Syria". This is while the same official Turkish website is reporting that the foreign minister of Turkey met with the foreign minister of Syria in a formal meeting. This is formal recognition. The market should resolve to yes now. Here is a link to the Turkish foreign ministry website that says all this: https://www.mfa.gov.tr/sayin-bakanimizin-suriye-deki-yeni-yonetimin-disisleri-bakani-esad-hasan-seybani-ile-gorusmesi-15-01-2025.en.mfa

Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?

denizz

3 months ago

The Lebanese armed forces haven't mobilized and enforced the deal fully, nor has Israel withdrawn fully. It will take until next month at a minimum for the deal to be fully implemented.

0

n/a

3 months ago

Israel deciding to extend the deal beyond 60 days means war.. Lebanese citizens will start to head back to their southern villages tmrw, and no one wants to see a clash at the moment.

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

That's the first I heard about June

0

WarDrugs

3 months ago

https://x.com/wef/status/1882099273707462953 at 20:12 the Syrian foreign minister indirectly confirms that the Syrian transitional government (HTS controlled) is in power to June 2026

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

Maybe it's an issue that they use the formal title "Minister of Foreign Affairs of the New Administration in Syria" rather than "Minister of Foreign Affairs of Syria" or "Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Syrian Transitional Government"

2

Fledermaus

3 months ago

The rules say: "The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the recognizing government". That means, the Turkish government has to officially admit that the people in control of Damascus are the government of Syria. The rebels in Syria created a government which they call the Syrian Transitional Government. They appointed a foreign minister named Asaad Hassan Al-Shaibani. Has Turkey recognized that he is the foreign minister of Syria and not just a rebel calling himself that? Yes, they have. The official website of the Turkish foreign ministry is referring to Asaad Hassan Al-Shaibani as "Minister of Foreign Affairs of the New Administration in Syria". This is while the same official Turkish website is reporting that the foreign minister of Turkey met with the foreign minister of Syria in a formal meeting. This is formal recognition. The market should resolve to yes now. Here is a link to the Turkish foreign ministry website that says all this: https://www.mfa.gov.tr/sayin-bakanimizin-suriye-deki-yeni-yonetimin-disisleri-bakani-esad-hasan-seybani-ile-gorusmesi-15-01-2025.en.mfa

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

Control of territory doesn't matter per se. It's about what Turkey's official stance is.

1

Fledermaus

3 months ago

The rules say: "The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the recognizing government". That means, the Turkish government has to officially admit that the people in control of Damascus are the government of Syria. The rebels in Syria created a government which they call the Syrian Transitional Government. They appointed a foreign minister named Asaad Hassan Al-Shaibani. Has Turkey recognized that he is the foreign minister of Syria and not just a rebel calling himself that? Yes, they have. The official website of the Turkish foreign ministry is referring to Asaad Hassan Al-Shaibani as "Minister of Foreign Affairs of the New Administration in Syria". This is while the same official Turkish website is reporting that the foreign minister of Turkey met with the foreign minister of Syria in a formal meeting. This is formal recognition. The market should resolve to yes now. Here is a link to the Turkish foreign ministry website that says all this: https://www.mfa.gov.tr/sayin-bakanimizin-suriye-deki-yeni-yonetimin-disisleri-bakani-esad-hasan-seybani-ile-gorusmesi-15-01-2025.en.mfa

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

3 months ago

perhaps Tony Blair was simply wrong about that date?

0

WarDrugs

3 months ago

https://x.com/wef/status/1882099273707462953 at 20:12 the Syrian foreign minister indirectly confirms that the Syrian transitional government (HTS controlled) is in power to June 2026

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

denizz

3 months ago

I agree with our local gopnik

5

tryingtruth

3 months ago

New article from the BBC. Quote: "With the 49 year lease being cancelled it has become very clear for Russia that it can no longer hope to maintain a military presence in Tartous and as such, there appears to be no point in staying there and delaying the maritime evacuation any longer," Mr Van Lokeren added. https://www. bbc. com/news/articles/c14nk475nd5o

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

denizz

3 months ago

obv russia intends to stay if possible. doubt syria will let them tho

0

greengasper

3 months ago

we are looking for another two months of negotiations, And yes holders will be waiting for Sparta to load some military equipment. It will turn out that this equipment is not related to the naval base itself but rather consists of equipment that has been accumulated at the port from various military bases in syria

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

denizz

3 months ago

Nevertheless the negotiations are ongoing, and will probably stay ongoing until the west agrees to lift sanctions etc.

1

greengasper

3 months ago

we are looking for another two months of negotiations, And yes holders will be waiting for Sparta to load some military equipment. It will turn out that this equipment is not related to the naval base itself but rather consists of equipment that has been accumulated at the port from various military bases in syria

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

denizz

3 months ago

Hi Oliver! What’s your account?

2

denizz

3 months ago

Yes holders actually believed a shadow government deep state analyst

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

denizz

3 months ago

Yes holders actually believed a shadow government deep state analyst

4

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

denizz

3 months ago

Typical western degenerate perspective. Jolani himself admit this in al arabiya interview.

0

denizz

3 months ago

Folx my sources in the Russian Foreign Ministry say Russia is staying

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

denizz

3 months ago

Is true. Russia and Syria are brotherly nations.

1

denizz

3 months ago

Folx my sources in the Russian Foreign Ministry say Russia is staying

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

denizz

3 months ago

Folx my sources in the Russian Foreign Ministry say Russia is staying

3

Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025?

denizz

3 months ago

It would violate the Danish/Greenlandic constitutions but I guess they technically could if they change the laws

0

n/a

3 months ago

FYI: It's only Denmark who decides whether Greenland should be sold or not. Greenland on the other hand can decide if they want to vote for indepence and afterwards Greenland can decide whether they want to be part of USA. Conclusion, if Denmark decides to sell Greenland before they are 100% independent, Denmark can do so

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

denizz

3 months ago

Case closed folks!

2

greengasper

3 months ago

Just in: Russia Defense Ministry: Negotiations over Russian military bases in Syria are still underway, with no solution yet. I know that these kinds of negotiations take forever.

TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?

denizz

3 months ago

How much did Erasmus bond? $17M?

2

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

denizz

3 months ago

Hi

0

leftwing-gambler

3 months ago

Either the russians in this market holding all the no's are insiders. Or they have been brainwashed by propaganda (like in the assad market)

Trump mentions his memecoin in inaugural address?

denizz

3 months ago

Thanks for your kind words of support

0

denizz

3 months ago

How is my FinSub gonna get off on this?

Trump mentions his memecoin in inaugural address?

denizz

3 months ago

How is my FinSub gonna get off on this?

0

Trump mentions his memecoin in inaugural address?

denizz

3 months ago

"I just made lot of people rich! " would not count

0

chuckingtrump

3 months ago

Trump is Unpredictable, he will probably say something related to his Memecoin like I just made lot of people rich! :D

Trump mentions his memecoin in inaugural address?

denizz

3 months ago

That wouldn’t count actually

1

chuckingtrump

3 months ago

Trump is Unpredictable, he will probably say something related to his Memecoin like I just made lot of people rich! :D

Trump mentions his memecoin in inaugural address?

denizz

3 months ago

gonna show him the comments, so plz be as degrading as possible.

0

denizz

3 months ago

I can't wait to tell my FinSub I blew 40K of his daughter's college fund on a mention market.

Trump mentions his memecoin in inaugural address?

denizz

3 months ago

I'm gonna be edging him the whole time uwu

0

denizz

3 months ago

I can't wait to tell my FinSub I blew 40K of his daughter's college fund on a mention market.

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

3 months ago

You shouldn't take financial advice from users with negative P&L.

1

SoraiQ

3 months ago

The only thing i learned from this market is in this video made by Delta: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EMw-j6xCulc&t=6s

Trump mentions his memecoin in inaugural address?

denizz

3 months ago

Actually we have excellent program in gonzo pornography

3

denizz

3 months ago

I can't wait to tell my FinSub I blew 40K of his daughter's college fund on a mention market.

Trump mentions his memecoin in inaugural address?

denizz

3 months ago

I can't wait to tell my FinSub I blew 40K of his daughter's college fund on a mention market.

8

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

3 months ago

has making shit up worked out for you so far?

0

noblesse.oblige

3 months ago

Hamas leader is in Turkey, and his name is Khalil al-Hayya. Not Khalid Mashal. Anyhow, both are in Turkey since long time. Qatar has officially announced the Hamas presence was for mediation purpose only, Qatar is not a host

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

3 months ago

That’s incorrect

0

noblesse.oblige

4 months ago

Khaled Mashal was not even in Qatar to begin with, he was not part of Hamas leadership who lived there, anyhow all of them had been kicked out beginning of Nov 2024.. This market is pure joke

Trump ends Gaza war by first 100 days?

denizz

4 months ago

I proposed it

3

FrancisSP8

4 months ago

who's going to propose this one? all the other markets have already been resolved

Trump ends Gaza war by first 100 days?

denizz

4 months ago

Because no one proposed yet

0

h00r11z11n2003

4 months ago

Why is this not resolved?

Israel withdraws from Syria before April?

denizz

4 months ago

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Syrian territory, regardless of whether some Syrian territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue.

0

Israel withdraws from Lebanon before February?

denizz

4 months ago

As a UMA whale scam artist, I'd like to thank Polymarket for this opportunity.

0

denizz

4 months ago

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanon territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control

Israel withdraws from Lebanon before February?

denizz

4 months ago

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanon territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control

0

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

denizz

4 months ago

shoddy coding

0

CarButBetter

4 months ago

Why do so many comments go missing? Are they manually deleted or is it shoddy coding?

Trump ends Gaza war by first 100 days?

denizz

4 months ago

still needs to pass the israeli cabinet vote

1

WarDrugs

4 months ago

https://x.com/WarMonitors/status/1879119159549948214 AP: “Two officials say Hamas accepted draft agreement for Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal. Israel is still weighing the deal” (I thought Israel accepted the deal, but I don't think they will now run with pressure from US, Egypt and Qatar)

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

4 months ago

The ceasefire turns this from a bond into a bond bond. Hamas leaders cannot return to Gaza -- not part of the deal whatsoever.

1

Car

4 months ago

The price is dropping, because when Hamas accepts the ceasefire, it could be that the Hamas leaves Qatar, because there isnt a reason to stay. Tbh im worried about this position, but i cant sell, because theres no liquidity.

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

4 months ago

He is in Qatar as per photographic evidence

0

SuperDarli

4 months ago

why is yes rising?

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

4 months ago

@Kaizer congrats on your recent trades.

0

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

4 months ago

yes but some people don't understand that (similar to how you don't understand that they are in Qatar)

0

n/a

4 months ago

I want to make it clear what is happening - yes, market manipulation, but more accurately among UMA whales holding ‘no’ in this market. They know their shares should be worth zero and will get there soon. The problem is they don’t want to lose their money, and they won’t as long as they can help it. They are effectively propping up the price of ‘no’ and suppressing the price of ‘yes,’ so that they can A) buy ‘yes’ and hedge their positions while B) limit their losses on ‘no’ by selling as much as possible without crashing the market. This is the only logical explanation of what’s going on, given the facts. If anyone has evidence that either supports this or tells a different story, I encourage you to share.

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

4 months ago

I agree. I'm just telling you why car sold 5k

0

n/a

4 months ago

I want to make it clear what is happening - yes, market manipulation, but more accurately among UMA whales holding ‘no’ in this market. They know their shares should be worth zero and will get there soon. The problem is they don’t want to lose their money, and they won’t as long as they can help it. They are effectively propping up the price of ‘no’ and suppressing the price of ‘yes,’ so that they can A) buy ‘yes’ and hedge their positions while B) limit their losses on ‘no’ by selling as much as possible without crashing the market. This is the only logical explanation of what’s going on, given the facts. If anyone has evidence that either supports this or tells a different story, I encourage you to share.

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

4 months ago

I know car sold because he thought the ceasefire might somehow lead to Hamas leaving Qatar

0

n/a

4 months ago

I want to make it clear what is happening - yes, market manipulation, but more accurately among UMA whales holding ‘no’ in this market. They know their shares should be worth zero and will get there soon. The problem is they don’t want to lose their money, and they won’t as long as they can help it. They are effectively propping up the price of ‘no’ and suppressing the price of ‘yes,’ so that they can A) buy ‘yes’ and hedge their positions while B) limit their losses on ‘no’ by selling as much as possible without crashing the market. This is the only logical explanation of what’s going on, given the facts. If anyone has evidence that either supports this or tells a different story, I encourage you to share.

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

4 months ago

Mashal isn't in Qatar according to what?

0

SuperDarli

4 months ago

why is yes rising?

Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025?

denizz

4 months ago

thx for the tip

0

WarDrugs

4 months ago

"For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn into or behind intended buffer zones, even if that zone is established on internationally recognized Palestinian territory." waaat

Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025?

denizz

4 months ago

they said they'd respond but haven't so far. i'm likely going to sue them in panama.

0

WarDrugs

4 months ago

"For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn into or behind intended buffer zones, even if that zone is established on internationally recognized Palestinian territory." waaat

Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025?

denizz

4 months ago

That's a lot of sass for a degenerate on -24K

24

gah-of-war

4 months ago

jerking each other off about how smart you are won't change the fact that you are morons are eager to pay 85 cents for betting the POTUS will not do as he says, after half you dumbfucks jerked each other off about how smart you were for paying 85 cents that the previous POTUS would keep his word. Then you got "UNLUCKY" that Joe would pardon his own son. KEEP JERKING OFF, just don't forget to fill the bids, dumbfucks!

Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025?

denizz

4 months ago

Gaza is just west golan bro

1

WarDrugs

4 months ago

"For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn into or behind intended buffer zones, even if that zone is established on internationally recognized Palestinian territory." waaat

Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025?

denizz

4 months ago

voting for Trump is highly correlated with retardation.

6

Car

4 months ago

im betting against retards

Will the U.S. remove HTS from terror list before March?

denizz

4 months ago

It’s true you can argue both ways on how disbanding affects delisting but the US has an incentive to court the new government as much as possible

0

WarDrugs

4 months ago

Notice the latest date where it's theoretical possible for Biden to announce delisting is 10th January. Congress needs to be notified 7 days before and their need to be a little room for implementation before Trump gets into office. If no delisting is announced by Friday you are essentially betting for Trump

Will the U.S. remove HTS from terror list before March?

denizz

4 months ago

I don’t think Israel is hugely relevant

0

WarDrugs

4 months ago

Notice the latest date where it's theoretical possible for Biden to announce delisting is 10th January. Congress needs to be notified 7 days before and their need to be a little room for implementation before Trump gets into office. If no delisting is announced by Friday you are essentially betting for Trump

Will the U.S. remove HTS from terror list before March?

denizz

4 months ago

Since that’s what they said they’d do and there’s no rain reason not to

0

WarDrugs

4 months ago

Notice the latest date where it's theoretical possible for Biden to announce delisting is 10th January. Congress needs to be notified 7 days before and their need to be a little room for implementation before Trump gets into office. If no delisting is announced by Friday you are essentially betting for Trump

Will the U.S. remove HTS from terror list before March?

denizz

4 months ago

As far as timeframe I think hts will dissolve officially at the time of the national dialogue

0

WarDrugs

4 months ago

Notice the latest date where it's theoretical possible for Biden to announce delisting is 10th January. Congress needs to be notified 7 days before and their need to be a little room for implementation before Trump gets into office. If no delisting is announced by Friday you are essentially betting for Trump

Will the U.S. remove HTS from terror list before March?

denizz

4 months ago

With that said, I can see the Trump admin doing it after HTS disbands. Admittedly, on any given sunday, Biden would be more likely to do that than Trump

0

WarDrugs

4 months ago

Notice the latest date where it's theoretical possible for Biden to announce delisting is 10th January. Congress needs to be notified 7 days before and their need to be a little room for implementation before Trump gets into office. If no delisting is announced by Friday you are essentially betting for Trump

Will the U.S. remove HTS from terror list before March?

denizz

4 months ago

I'd be mildly surprised if either Biden or Trump did it before HTS disbands

2

WarDrugs

4 months ago

Notice the latest date where it's theoretical possible for Biden to announce delisting is 10th January. Congress needs to be notified 7 days before and their need to be a little room for implementation before Trump gets into office. If no delisting is announced by Friday you are essentially betting for Trump

Will the U.S. remove HTS from terror list before March?

denizz

4 months ago

Today’s sanctions waiver is the second significant step towards a rapprochement between the USA and HTS, following the removal of bounties.

0

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

denizz

4 months ago

Btw i believe those subtitles are a mistranslation. He said he doesn’t want Russia to leave in a way that would be detrimental to their relationship

5

scottilicious

4 months ago

The Russians are hedging their bets like they have been for the last few months and moving some military gear, but not abandoning the base.

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

denizz

4 months ago

This bet seems like anyone’s game? Evac ships are now arriving and there’s no info clarifying whether the evac will be full or partial.

2

scottilicious

4 months ago

The Russians are hedging their bets like they have been for the last few months and moving some military gear, but not abandoning the base.

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

denizz

4 months ago

You have no way of knowing that

3

scottilicious

4 months ago

The Russians are hedging their bets like they have been for the last few months and moving some military gear, but not abandoning the base.

Will the U.S. abandon Syrian base before April 2025?

denizz

4 months ago

https://www.newsweek.com/us-backed-syria-rebels-hope-trump-wont-withdraw-troops-just-yet-2009029

1

denizz

4 months ago

US-Backed Syria Rebels Hope Trump Won't Withdraw Troops Just Yet

Will the U.S. abandon Syrian base before April 2025?

denizz

4 months ago

US-Backed Syria Rebels Hope Trump Won't Withdraw Troops Just Yet

1

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

4 months ago

What country has an ambassador in Taiwan with no recognition?

0

greengasper

4 months ago

I don’t know how these markets should resolve correctly. Turkey is already dealing with the new Syrian government as the official government. For example, today the Minister of Foreign Affairs stated that the new Syrian government should handle ISIS prisoners. This implies that Turkey is, in fact, implicitly recognizing the new Syrian government, an official statement might not hold any value

Will the U.S. remove HTS from terror list before March?

denizz

4 months ago

@wyn, so you think the moon landing was fake? just clarifying.

0

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

4 months ago

An ambassador presenting credentials is formal recognition

1

greengasper

4 months ago

I don’t know how these markets should resolve correctly. Turkey is already dealing with the new Syrian government as the official government. For example, today the Minister of Foreign Affairs stated that the new Syrian government should handle ISIS prisoners. This implies that Turkey is, in fact, implicitly recognizing the new Syrian government, an official statement might not hold any value

Will the U.S. remove HTS from terror list before March?

denizz

4 months ago

Snc may not be invited

0

denizz

4 months ago

The dissolution of HTS has been pushed to next week

Will the U.S. remove HTS from terror list before March?

denizz

4 months ago

That supersedes my source, so it looks like two weeks of delay

2

denizz

4 months ago

The dissolution of HTS has been pushed to next week

Will the U.S. abandon Syrian base before April 2025?

denizz

4 months ago

I’m still learning after 3 months

0

denizz

4 months ago

Short version: this particular base (al Tanf) is too pointless for the US to maintain post-Assad. The withdrawal date is a genuine question however.

Will the U.S. remove HTS from terror list before March?

denizz

4 months ago

The dissolution of HTS has been pushed to next week

0

Will the U.S. remove HTS from terror list before March?

denizz

4 months ago

HTS is one of the most violently anti Islamic state factions in the world

0

wyn

4 months ago

Obviously USA isn’t going to delist Hts now with all these terrorist attacks. Isis flag on back of truck in New Orleans attack. No should be 95c

Will the U.S. abandon Syrian base before April 2025?

denizz

4 months ago

You got unlucky on ceasefire but you oversized and didn’t protect your position well enough. So I agree your pnl isn’t fully representative. Don’t see why you’re being rude to me in the comments tho

3

denizz

4 months ago

Short version: this particular base (al Tanf) is too pointless for the US to maintain post-Assad. The withdrawal date is a genuine question however.

Will the U.S. abandon Syrian base before April 2025?

denizz

4 months ago

how's that -$4K on $700K volume treating you babe?

0

denizz

4 months ago

Short version: this particular base (al Tanf) is too pointless for the US to maintain post-Assad. The withdrawal date is a genuine question however.

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

4 months ago

I think officially posting an ambassador should count

1

greengasper

4 months ago

I don’t know how these markets should resolve correctly. Turkey is already dealing with the new Syrian government as the official government. For example, today the Minister of Foreign Affairs stated that the new Syrian government should handle ISIS prisoners. This implies that Turkey is, in fact, implicitly recognizing the new Syrian government, an official statement might not hold any value

Will the U.S. remove HTS from terror list before March?

denizz

4 months ago

Especially with HTS disbanded it's a kind of throwaway concession you can use on the way to recognition. To help keep them out of Russia's arms while things are hashed out. I guess either Biden or Trump could do it.

0

blahka

4 months ago

How will this resolve if HTS is disbanded before? I assume Yes as it will be removed from the list.

Will the U.S. remove HTS from terror list before March?

denizz

4 months ago

It will be easier to publicly justify removing them from the list if they no longer exist

1

blahka

4 months ago

How will this resolve if HTS is disbanded before? I assume Yes as it will be removed from the list.

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

4 months ago

Early request 99.99% (18,701,668.41) Yes 0.01% (2,445.06)

2

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

4 months ago

After the national conference

0

WarDrugs

4 months ago

I am flabberghasted over any people that thinks that the US governemnt especially under Trump would recognice the new Syrian Government in this timeframe. Israel calls the new government "terrorist gangs" https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/israeli-foreign-minister-calls-new-syrian-leadership--terror and in the lastest interview with Ahmad Al-Sharaa (HTS leader) he said that the constituition and election are several years ahead. He also only hoped for lifting of sanctions under Trump. He did not even ask for recognition https://x.com/HassounMazen/status/1873311693679317387

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

4 months ago

I don't think recognition is such a big deal. I figure Turkey will do it next month.

0

WarDrugs

4 months ago

I am flabberghasted over any people that thinks that the US governemnt especially under Trump would recognice the new Syrian Government in this timeframe. Israel calls the new government "terrorist gangs" https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/israeli-foreign-minister-calls-new-syrian-leadership--terror and in the lastest interview with Ahmad Al-Sharaa (HTS leader) he said that the constituition and election are several years ahead. He also only hoped for lifting of sanctions under Trump. He did not even ask for recognition https://x.com/HassounMazen/status/1873311693679317387

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

4 months ago

It's gonna be years until the election. There's no strong reason to withold recognition once the SDF cuts a deal. There are certain incentives to work with Syria and recognize (trying to keep Russia out, countering IS, supporting Jolani against more radical elements, providing consular services etc)

0

WarDrugs

4 months ago

I am flabberghasted over any people that thinks that the US governemnt especially under Trump would recognice the new Syrian Government in this timeframe. Israel calls the new government "terrorist gangs" https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/israeli-foreign-minister-calls-new-syrian-leadership--terror and in the lastest interview with Ahmad Al-Sharaa (HTS leader) he said that the constituition and election are several years ahead. He also only hoped for lifting of sanctions under Trump. He did not even ask for recognition https://x.com/HassounMazen/status/1873311693679317387

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

4 months ago

IMO the US market is primarily a bet on whether the SDF and Damascus come to terms within the market period. And I think that's fairly likely.

0

WarDrugs

4 months ago

I am flabberghasted over any people that thinks that the US governemnt especially under Trump would recognice the new Syrian Government in this timeframe. Israel calls the new government "terrorist gangs" https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/israeli-foreign-minister-calls-new-syrian-leadership--terror and in the lastest interview with Ahmad Al-Sharaa (HTS leader) he said that the constituition and election are several years ahead. He also only hoped for lifting of sanctions under Trump. He did not even ask for recognition https://x.com/HassounMazen/status/1873311693679317387

Who will recognize Syrian Government by March 31?

denizz

4 months ago

al Sharaa has already stated his willingness to renew the status of forces agreement with Israel. Otherwise there are more important considerations such as resolving the relationship between the SDF and Damascus.

0

WarDrugs

4 months ago

I am flabberghasted over any people that thinks that the US governemnt especially under Trump would recognice the new Syrian Government in this timeframe. Israel calls the new government "terrorist gangs" https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/israeli-foreign-minister-calls-new-syrian-leadership--terror and in the lastest interview with Ahmad Al-Sharaa (HTS leader) he said that the constituition and election are several years ahead. He also only hoped for lifting of sanctions under Trump. He did not even ask for recognition https://x.com/HassounMazen/status/1873311693679317387

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

4 months ago

It did.

1

GuyWhoFcks

4 months ago

The truth will prevail

Will the U.S. abandon Syrian base before April 2025?

denizz

4 months ago

Short version: this particular base (al Tanf) is too pointless for the US to maintain post-Assad. The withdrawal date is a genuine question however.

2

Will the U.S. abandon Syrian base before April 2025?

denizz

4 months ago

Getting rid of tanf is not priority number 1 for jolani but it’s an unacceptable violation of Syrian sovereignty. The base has insufficient purpose for the Americans so they will close it and withdraw to tower 22. That’s the main thing

0

denizz

5 months ago

This base was positioned to block a weapons smuggling route between Iran and Hezbollah, a route which no longer exists due to the fall of the Syrian government. Otherwise it is in the middle of the desert in an unpleasant location. It is not in an SDF area and the rebels located there were a token force which will now fold into the Syrian military structures. The refugees located there are also returning to their homes. This base adds minimal value to anti-Islamic State operations. US presence west of the Euphrates will be a particular source of friction with the new Syrian government, and the base has no legal standing at this point. Trump is insistent on withdrawing from Syria, and this base will be the first to go. It only has around 250 personnel and minimal military assets so withdrawal would be rapid.

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

4 months ago

wow you're using sock puppets now? maybe you are a scammer. and to think i've been defending you from all these vulgar retards. anyways, i'm only buying yes on limit. unfortunately, i'm poor now.

2

its.just.fire

4 months ago

denizz,go buy more yes shares in us base leaving syria please,need to fill my no order.

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

4 months ago

"Kakoi ti suchka, sukin sin 🙂 tvau mamu ibal" Delta can you explain why you're DMing me some kind of curse spells?

1

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

4 months ago

Yes holders: -$200K, No holders: +$1.3M.

0

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

4 months ago

Scammers = people with positive P&L that I disagree with

1

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

4 months ago

You're pumping yes like a pastor pumps Jesus, but you admit you could be wrong in DMs. You've got a whole bunch of negative PNL sheep following you to the slaughterhouse on this one.

0

denizz

4 months ago

Deltachild LEAKED DMs "As you can see I'm very transparent about what I'm doing. I have literally nothing to hide. You might be right, and you are not alone in having been told this" Not very ethical for him to pump yes when he admits the nos "might be right" lol

Will the U.S. abandon Syrian base before April 2025?

denizz

4 months ago

Tanf has minimal anti-ISIS payoff IMO -- anyways, I articulated my views more fully in the thread below.

0

nanulo

4 months ago

I don't think people realize how long it may take for the US to withdraw. In Iraq the U.S. still has 2,500 troops, this September they agreed with the Iraqi government to withdraw them by end of 2025 if not 2026. 1-2 year timeframe and that's after an agreement was signed with an arguably less friendly government than current Syria

Will the U.S. abandon Syrian base before April 2025?

denizz

4 months ago

https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/01/25/us-considering-plan-to-stay-in-remote-syrian-base-to-counter-iran-tanf-pentagon-military-trump/

0

nanulo

4 months ago

I don't think people realize how long it may take for the US to withdraw. In Iraq the U.S. still has 2,500 troops, this September they agreed with the Iraqi government to withdraw them by end of 2025 if not 2026. 1-2 year timeframe and that's after an agreement was signed with an arguably less friendly government than current Syria

Will the U.S. abandon Syrian base before April 2025?

denizz

4 months ago

'The only "logical purpose" al-Tanf serves is to allow the United States to "monitor and disrupt the flow of Iranian-backed militias,"'

1

nanulo

4 months ago

I don't think people realize how long it may take for the US to withdraw. In Iraq the U.S. still has 2,500 troops, this September they agreed with the Iraqi government to withdraw them by end of 2025 if not 2026. 1-2 year timeframe and that's after an agreement was signed with an arguably less friendly government than current Syria

Will the U.S. abandon Syrian base before April 2025?

denizz

4 months ago

Tanf has 200-300. The troops in Iraq have a reason to be there. Tanf is pretty pointless as of recently

0

nanulo

4 months ago

I don't think people realize how long it may take for the US to withdraw. In Iraq the U.S. still has 2,500 troops, this September they agreed with the Iraqi government to withdraw them by end of 2025 if not 2026. 1-2 year timeframe and that's after an agreement was signed with an arguably less friendly government than current Syria

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

4 months ago

Deltachild LEAKED DMs "As you can see I'm very transparent about what I'm doing. I have literally nothing to hide. You might be right, and you are not alone in having been told this" Not very ethical for him to pump yes when he admits the nos "might be right" lol

3

Will the U.S. remove HTS from terror list before March?

denizz

4 months ago

Either no reason or because things are heating up on the ground in Syria slightly (in a way that will likely be inconsequential ultimately).

3

WarDrugs

4 months ago

why is this crashing

Will the U.S. remove HTS from terror list before March?

denizz

4 months ago

lmao

1

wyn

4 months ago

Yes holders think moon landing was real

Trump ends Gaza war by first 100 days?

denizz

4 months ago

Boxing Day sale

1

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

denizz

4 months ago

If that's what you're pinning your hopes on, you're better off selling while mmouse is buying for some reason

0

its.just.fire

4 months ago

Why don't the government & military of Israel, as part of an attempt to seal the first phase of a ceasefire/hostage deal in Gaza, announce a 3-day temporary bombardment/fighting pause that allows Hamas to generate a list of living hostages? This issue has been sabotaging ongoing negotiations, with Hamas claiming it doesn't know who the still-living hostages are. While I'm unsympathetic to the terror group's position, it is a fact that they've lost most of their command-and-control structures such that they’ve been reduced to disparate cells operating throughout the Gaza Strip, including those holding hostages. Take away their excuses and give them a chance to produce the necessary list of living hostages to get them freed back to their loved ones; a win-win for all: civilians in Gaza who desperately need a reprieve and access to aid and hostage families who are desperate to see negotiations proceed and not be stalled or sabotaged.

U.S. arms embargo on Israel in 2024?

denizz

4 months ago

but i agree it's more likely to be interpreted as start

0

LolInvest

4 months ago

imho YES is unlikely to win, "imposes" means that the embargo must be put in place btw October and Dec and not before otherwise this market wouldn't have been created. YES would work if they had written "confirmation of the continuation of an arms embargo"

U.S. arms embargo on Israel in 2024?

denizz

4 months ago

"The only other countries (as of this writing) on which the U.S. imposes an embargo are Iran, North Korea, Sudan, Syria, and Burma/Myanmar" that's an example i pulled off google. it doesn't mean start in that context

1

LolInvest

4 months ago

imho YES is unlikely to win, "imposes" means that the embargo must be put in place btw October and Dec and not before otherwise this market wouldn't have been created. YES would work if they had written "confirmation of the continuation of an arms embargo"

U.S. arms embargo on Israel in 2024?

denizz

4 months ago

"imposes" is actually ambiguous between "start" and "actively enforce"

0

LolInvest

4 months ago

imho YES is unlikely to win, "imposes" means that the embargo must be put in place btw October and Dec and not before otherwise this market wouldn't have been created. YES would work if they had written "confirmation of the continuation of an arms embargo"

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

4 months ago

I'll explain in the discord

0

denizz

4 months ago

DeltaChild, what do you think of this market? Try reading the comments to catch up. https://polymarket.com/event/us-arms-embargo-on-israel-in-2024/us-arms-embargo-on-israel-in-2024

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

4 months ago

That's the one I meant that they followed me from

0

WAR.MONITOR

4 months ago

Deniz, dude...I like you, but every time I find a sketchy market you are a top holder :D

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

4 months ago

Are you talking about the Israel invades Syria market? I think it's criminal how they handled that

0

WAR.MONITOR

4 months ago

Deniz, dude...I like you, but every time I find a sketchy market you are a top holder :D

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

4 months ago

DeltaChild, what do you think of this market? Try reading the comments to catch up. https://polymarket.com/event/us-arms-embargo-on-israel-in-2024/us-arms-embargo-on-israel-in-2024

0

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

4 months ago

MEP is smart. she just got in over her head on the ceasefire bet..

0

GolanHeights

4 months ago

I would say ying and yang cancel each other out and sentiment is neutral

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

denizz

4 months ago

It was carrying cranes for the port of Vladivostok

1

denizz

4 months ago

Apparently one of the possible evacuation ships sank while eastbound in the Med lol

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

denizz

4 months ago

Apparently it was really en route to Vladivostok as Russia claimed. It wasn’t one of the ones flagged by Ukrainian intelligence as heading to Syria

3

denizz

4 months ago

Apparently one of the possible evacuation ships sank while eastbound in the Med lol

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

denizz

4 months ago

Apparently one of the possible evacuation ships sank while eastbound in the Med lol

3

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

4 months ago

hate to break it to you but i'm not turkish

0

denizz

4 months ago

This is objectively a no if nothing changes.

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

4 months ago

OK I lost one because you got PM to throw out 3 UMA votes, which goes to show that their governance is horrific. but you're not gonna pull the same shit here because you don't have anything substantive going for you.

0

denizz

4 months ago

This is objectively a no if nothing changes.

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

4 months ago

anyways they actually followed me here from the syria market so it's not a coincidence

0

WAR.MONITOR

4 months ago

Deniz, dude...I like you, but every time I find a sketchy market you are a top holder :D

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

4 months ago

learn to take some advice before you wind up back in negative PNL territory

0

denizz

4 months ago

This is objectively a no if nothing changes.

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

4 months ago

I know you're not a lawyer/english isn't your first language so my sympathy there. but you're misreading the rules.

0

denizz

4 months ago

This is objectively a no if nothing changes.

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

4 months ago

well i'm filing that under the brigading yes holders

0

WAR.MONITOR

4 months ago

Deniz, dude...I like you, but every time I find a sketchy market you are a top holder :D

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

4 months ago

Mashal was in gaza the whole time, and there's no qatari statement that meets the specification in the rules.

0

denizz

4 months ago

This is objectively a no if nothing changes.

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

4 months ago

the only sketchy things about this market are the mildly confusing rules and the yes holders trying to brigade it

0

WAR.MONITOR

4 months ago

Deniz, dude...I like you, but every time I find a sketchy market you are a top holder :D

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

4 months ago

This is objectively a no if nothing changes.

0

Congress pay raise removed from funding bill by Friday?

denizz

4 months ago

i'm not seeing a sensible alternative interpretation but feel free to ignore me. i'm not following it closely enough.

1

GolanHeights

4 months ago

"This market will resolve based on whether the language is re-added in the CR at any point" and yet language was removed not added

Congress pay raise removed from funding bill by Friday?

denizz

4 months ago

looking for the intent is one of the only possible moves when faced with a nonsensical rule set

1

GolanHeights

4 months ago

"This market will resolve based on whether the language is re-added in the CR at any point" and yet language was removed not added

Congress pay raise removed from funding bill by Friday?

denizz

4 months ago

not particularly. just amused by all these disputes

1

GolanHeights

4 months ago

"This market will resolve based on whether the language is re-added in the CR at any point" and yet language was removed not added

Congress pay raise removed from funding bill by Friday?

denizz

4 months ago

Unless you want polymarket to refund everyone since the rules are retarded, it should obv resolve yes due to the intent.

0

GolanHeights

4 months ago

"This market will resolve based on whether the language is re-added in the CR at any point" and yet language was removed not added

Another Israeli military action against Iran in 2024?

denizz

4 months ago

If you're gonna go all the way out there, you may as well hit something important. And they already hit the highest value missile manufacturing sites

0

denizz

4 months ago

Don’t forget about this one https://polymarket.com/event/israel-strikes-iranian-oil-in-2024

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

4 months ago

mhm yet you're holding 0

1

morbidsaint

4 months ago

This market is more insane than Syria market, Yes for 100%

Another Israeli military action against Iran in 2024?

denizz

4 months ago

what else?

0

denizz

4 months ago

Don’t forget about this one https://polymarket.com/event/israel-strikes-iranian-oil-in-2024

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

denizz

4 months ago

Dec is possible but it ain't 50/50

5

folloq

4 months ago

They have been discussing this for months... why should this suddenly be settled?

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

4 months ago

At least you didn't get any death threats

0

Wolk

4 months ago

I’ve received backlash from many people both on various Discord outlets and market comments because of Syria, the shutdown, and this one. It’s important for everyone to understand that my opinions are my own, they are not recommendations or endorsement for any position. Do your own research.

Another Israeli military action against Iran in 2024?

denizz

4 months ago

Oil infrastructure is next on the target list

1

denizz

4 months ago

Don’t forget about this one https://polymarket.com/event/israel-strikes-iranian-oil-in-2024

Another Israeli military action against Iran in 2024?

denizz

4 months ago

Don’t forget about this one https://polymarket.com/event/israel-strikes-iranian-oil-in-2024

1

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

denizz

4 months ago

I'm up thousands on these Gaza ceasefire markets

1

denizz

4 months ago

Suleiman Maswadeh on Israeli state TV nightly news: Suleiman, let's try to describe the current obstacles and gaps between Israel and Hamas regarding the deal. There are some obstacles, but first, let's provide an overview. Reports indicate that following the CIA director's visit to Qatar, the negotiations are stalled. And I actually understand that the situation is the opposite. A senior official involved in the negotiations tells me today, The talks are moving in the right direction following the CIA chief's visit and its conclusion in Doha.

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

denizz

4 months ago

you first

1

denizz

4 months ago

Suleiman Maswadeh on Israeli state TV nightly news: Suleiman, let's try to describe the current obstacles and gaps between Israel and Hamas regarding the deal. There are some obstacles, but first, let's provide an overview. Reports indicate that following the CIA director's visit to Qatar, the negotiations are stalled. And I actually understand that the situation is the opposite. A senior official involved in the negotiations tells me today, The talks are moving in the right direction following the CIA chief's visit and its conclusion in Doha.

Will the U.S. remove HTS from terror list before March?

denizz

4 months ago

The bounty for Ahmed al Sharaa has been officially removed following the announcement earlier today.

1

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

denizz

4 months ago

Suleiman Maswadeh on Israeli state TV nightly news: Suleiman, let's try to describe the current obstacles and gaps between Israel and Hamas regarding the deal. There are some obstacles, but first, let's provide an overview. Reports indicate that following the CIA director's visit to Qatar, the negotiations are stalled. And I actually understand that the situation is the opposite. A senior official involved in the negotiations tells me today, The talks are moving in the right direction following the CIA chief's visit and its conclusion in Doha.

1

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

4 months ago

It's called a joke bro

1

its.just.fire

4 months ago

spamming the same false news that have both been denied by hamas and qatar doesnt make it real or credible bro.

Will the U.S. remove HTS from terror list before March?

denizz

4 months ago

It's a fascinating article but Bill Roggio also needs to be taken with a grain of salt. E.g. his implication that al Sharaa may still have a secret allegiance to Al Qaeda is rather absurd. The guy is second only to the USA in Al Qaeda scalps at this point. Also note that he is attempting to consolidate all armed groups under the command of the ministry of defense. This will necessarily involve these HTS-allied factions foregoing any foreign allegiances.

0

wyn

5 months ago

After reading this article, I find it extremely unlikely that delisting happens considering all their allies ties to terror orgs. Take this info wisely.

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

denizz

4 months ago

End of the month is the negotiating schedule and it's considered a significant possibility.

0

Edenze

4 months ago

At the weekend no chance for a deal + holidays are coming… I’m my opinion deal will happen at the end of January. Also Hamas didn’t provide a hostage name list (critical for continuing negotiations)

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

denizz

4 months ago

Could happen. Could not. I'm evaluating my exposure to this platform due to its poor governance.

2

pawel

4 months ago

deniz why sell?

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

4 months ago

Kaz shouldn’t you be tweeting at shayne to see if he’ll overrule Uma due to poor reading comprehension?

1

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

4 months ago

The point is the rules ask for mashal or a particular statement from Qatar. Kaz has neither

0

Kaz15

4 months ago

Learn Heb Denniz and see what this jouno said https://x.com/kann_news/status/1858210305811054897?s=46&t=0inBTTH0Hr_oWKWLNkAkdg

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

4 months ago

10d ago NYT: A few weeks ago, Qatar, which hosts Hamas’s leaders in exile, raised the pressure by indicating that the group’s top officials might no longer be welcome in the country if the deadlock persisted, leading some to briefly leave Qatar. But the Gulf state has once again begun mediating between the two sides.

1

denizz

4 months ago

17d ago Reasons this will almost certainly go no: 1. It is over a month since Qatar gave some Hamas leaders a month to vacate. 2. Khaled Mashal was confirmed in Qatar as of yesterday. 3. Axios reported that Khaled Mashal in particular was not expelled. It is clear that Mashal was allowed to remain even if other Hamas leaders left. This market resolves based on Mashal per the rules.

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

4 months ago

11d ago Qatar has ended its partial ban on Hamas leaders and khaled mashal was never banned. This will resolve to no.

1

denizz

4 months ago

17d ago Reasons this will almost certainly go no: 1. It is over a month since Qatar gave some Hamas leaders a month to vacate. 2. Khaled Mashal was confirmed in Qatar as of yesterday. 3. Axios reported that Khaled Mashal in particular was not expelled. It is clear that Mashal was allowed to remain even if other Hamas leaders left. This market resolves based on Mashal per the rules.

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

4 months ago

16d ago Khaled Mashal was still in Qatar yesterday http://x.com/asifluqman/status/1863700858434720140

1

denizz

4 months ago

17d ago Reasons this will almost certainly go no: 1. It is over a month since Qatar gave some Hamas leaders a month to vacate. 2. Khaled Mashal was confirmed in Qatar as of yesterday. 3. Axios reported that Khaled Mashal in particular was not expelled. It is clear that Mashal was allowed to remain even if other Hamas leaders left. This market resolves based on Mashal per the rules.

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

4 months ago

17d ago Reasons this will almost certainly go no: 1. It is over a month since Qatar gave some Hamas leaders a month to vacate. 2. Khaled Mashal was confirmed in Qatar as of yesterday. 3. Axios reported that Khaled Mashal in particular was not expelled. It is clear that Mashal was allowed to remain even if other Hamas leaders left. This market resolves based on Mashal per the rules.

1

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

4 months ago

There was never a statement of removal. Just a statement that some were absent.

0

denizz

5 months ago

Hi retards. Khaled Meshal never left Qatar so the only way you're gonna flip this one is to spread a web of bullshit on Twitter.

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

5 months ago

Hi retards. Khaled Meshal never left Qatar so the only way you're gonna flip this one is to spread a web of bullshit on Twitter.

0

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

denizz

5 months ago

was kidding

0

denizz

5 months ago

The no holders should give peace a chance!!

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

denizz

5 months ago

we def didn't skip that part

0

denizz

5 months ago

The no holders should give peace a chance!!

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

denizz

5 months ago

I tipped you $18 on Lebanon and never received so much as a thank you! that's 18 more than anyone ever tipped me :\

1

greengasper

5 months ago

Officials told Channel 13 that the deal could be reached within the next few days, but its implementation the next few weeks. UMA disputes again

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

denizz

5 months ago

where are you seeing that anyways?

0

greengasper

5 months ago

Officials told Channel 13 that the deal could be reached within the next few days, but its implementation the next few weeks. UMA disputes again

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

denizz

5 months ago

i'll ping him

1

greengasper

5 months ago

Officials told Channel 13 that the deal could be reached within the next few days, but its implementation the next few weeks. UMA disputes again

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

denizz

5 months ago

The no holders should give peace a chance!!

1

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

denizz

5 months ago

Trump has more suction at this point than Biden. Anyways both want the deal done.

0

its.just.fire

5 months ago

people that still doubt this is happening are underestimating the power of the vanity of a 82 old man that wants his christmas gift at all cost.

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

denizz

5 months ago

they should give peace a chance!

0

Insidescoop

5 months ago

@denizz you might step in ur own shit if you keep looking up. Or worse, some people might force you to eat it.

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

denizz

5 months ago

very thought provoking

2

Insidescoop

5 months ago

@denizz you might step in ur own shit if you keep looking up. Or worse, some people might force you to eat it.

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

denizz

5 months ago

Nos are betting against MiddleEastPrincess, a former analyst from the IDF's elite Unit 9900, and graduate of Roim Rachok, the IDF's unique weaponization program for medium to high functioning autists.

9

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

denizz

5 months ago

Top 4 no accounts have 17k in loss between them

5

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

denizz

5 months ago

I don't see where she lied

3

its.just.fire

5 months ago

As progress appears to be continuing in talks for a cease-fire and hostage deal with Hamas - and in light of Defense Minister Israel Katz's statement that such an agreement is "closer than ever," a senior U.S. official told Ynet Tuesday evening that there will be a deal. "It's just a matter of time," he claims

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

5 months ago

Someone already tried that and lost $750

3

alexp

5 months ago

Some of the top yes holders should propose a yes solutions you will make a return on all you have invested, and you will get your bond back you propsed. I would but I don't have the usdc.

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

denizz

5 months ago

World peace is cancelled

0

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

denizz

5 months ago

Are you a denizz novelty account or is this the craziest coincidence ever?

0

Dannyzz

5 months ago

Mark my words - By next week 26th, Hanukkah day 1 (1st candle) we have the agreement. Bibi wants this poetic end to this war combined with the first candle of Hanukkah, and he will get it.

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

denizz

5 months ago

“I will say this - while Reuters reported that he (Bibi) was on his way to Cairo - he was not on his way to Cairo.” What will happen in half an hour? A day? A year? The devil knows. But the report is not valid.”

1

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

denizz

5 months ago

rip

0

denizz

5 months ago

MEP I put a sell order in at 65. Maybe could go lower.

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

denizz

5 months ago

MEP I put a sell order in at 65. Maybe could go lower.

1

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

denizz

5 months ago

Yeah but he's not the boss of Hamas. In Hezb deal they did sign off tho.

0

its.just.fire

5 months ago

been hearing that iranian president will be in egypt on thursday to finalize the deal....stay tuned.

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

denizz

5 months ago

Iranian president?

0

its.just.fire

5 months ago

been hearing that iranian president will be in egypt on thursday to finalize the deal....stay tuned.

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

denizz

5 months ago

I'm not clear if it will be resolved in q1

0

cashy

5 months ago

It’s going down tonight

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

denizz

5 months ago

already chickened

0

cashy

5 months ago

It’s going down tonight

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

denizz

5 months ago

(x)

0

cashy

5 months ago

It’s going down tonight

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

5 months ago

someone already did that and lost the $750 bond

0

alexp

5 months ago

Could some propose a YES resolution: https://www.timesofisrael.com/hamas-officials-booted-by-qatar-last-week-now-hosted-in-turkey-diplomat-says/

Will the U.S. abandon Syrian base before April 2025?

denizz

5 months ago

They're no longer present in Syria

0

denizz

5 months ago

This base was positioned to block a weapons smuggling route between Iran and Hezbollah, a route which no longer exists due to the fall of the Syrian government. Otherwise it is in the middle of the desert in an unpleasant location. It is not in an SDF area and the rebels located there were a token force which will now fold into the Syrian military structures. The refugees located there are also returning to their homes. This base adds minimal value to anti-Islamic State operations. US presence west of the Euphrates will be a particular source of friction with the new Syrian government, and the base has no legal standing at this point. Trump is insistent on withdrawing from Syria, and this base will be the first to go. It only has around 250 personnel and minimal military assets so withdrawal would be rapid.

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

denizz

5 months ago

Russia isn't allied strongly with turkey, Russia doesn't blow up ukrainian gain anymore to my knowledge, and idt anyone telling you ukrainian grain alone is gonna do it

9

Mr.Fister

5 months ago

Yes-guys are telling me fucking Ukrainian grain, that gets blown up by Russians regulary will convince HTS to throw them out of the country, whilst Russia is allied strongly with Turkey

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

denizz

5 months ago

Reuters didn't provide any info that contradicts the clear evidence that Russia is withdrawing most of its assets.

0

denizz

5 months ago

It's true that no decision has been made about the bases. So the current major withdrawal is partial. However, we see that the Russians are getting into position to leave if they have to.

Will the U.S. abandon Syrian base before April 2025?

denizz

5 months ago

As I was saying, the base lacks a purpose now, so the military will be OK with feeding it to Trump as withdrawal event. Meanwhile HTS wants to restore Syrian sovereignty at the border crossing.

0

denizz

5 months ago

This base was positioned to block a weapons smuggling route between Iran and Hezbollah, a route which no longer exists due to the fall of the Syrian government. Otherwise it is in the middle of the desert in an unpleasant location. It is not in an SDF area and the rebels located there were a token force which will now fold into the Syrian military structures. The refugees located there are also returning to their homes. This base adds minimal value to anti-Islamic State operations. US presence west of the Euphrates will be a particular source of friction with the new Syrian government, and the base has no legal standing at this point. Trump is insistent on withdrawing from Syria, and this base will be the first to go. It only has around 250 personnel and minimal military assets so withdrawal would be rapid.

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

denizz

5 months ago

You're overinterpreting the article. There are major withdrawals underway, proven by hard evidence. You could call that "some" equipment but in fact it is also "most".

0

denizz

5 months ago

It's true that no decision has been made about the bases. So the current major withdrawal is partial. However, we see that the Russians are getting into position to leave if they have to.

Will the U.S. abandon Syrian base before April 2025?

denizz

5 months ago

This base was positioned to block a weapons smuggling route between Iran and Hezbollah, a route which no longer exists due to the fall of the Syrian government. Otherwise it is in the middle of the desert in an unpleasant location. It is not in an SDF area and the rebels located there were a token force which will now fold into the Syrian military structures. The refugees located there are also returning to their homes. This base adds minimal value to anti-Islamic State operations. US presence west of the Euphrates will be a particular source of friction with the new Syrian government, and the base has no legal standing at this point. Trump is insistent on withdrawing from Syria, and this base will be the first to go. It only has around 250 personnel and minimal military assets so withdrawal would be rapid.

2

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

denizz

5 months ago

They are withdrawing major assets from Syria, rapidly shortening the timeline needed for a possible full evac.

1

denizz

5 months ago

It's true that no decision has been made about the bases. So the current major withdrawal is partial. However, we see that the Russians are getting into position to leave if they have to.

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

denizz

5 months ago

That's nonsense. HTS under al Sharaa are a different animal. Even their statements against Iran are rather mild but I don't think they'll be agreeing to Iranian bases anytime soon.

1

greengasper

5 months ago

If you know the nature of the terrorists who took over Syria, which are basically al Qaeda, if they had any intention of making the Russians leave, they would be making noise all over the news about expelling the Russian occupation. Such words are not even heard from their officials. On the contrary, we hear positive statements about good communication and building good relationships.

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

denizz

5 months ago

There is a very major withdrawal underway including a small fleet of cargo ships and withdrawal of critical air defense assets.

1

denizz

5 months ago

It's true that no decision has been made about the bases. So the current major withdrawal is partial. However, we see that the Russians are getting into position to leave if they have to.

Will Russia pull out of Syria before April 2025?

denizz

5 months ago

It's true that no decision has been made by Syria about the bases. So the current major withdrawal is partial. However, we see that the Russians are getting into position to leave if they have to.

3

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

denizz

5 months ago

It's true that no decision has been made about the bases. So the current major withdrawal is partial. However, we see that the Russians are getting into position to leave if they have to.

3

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

denizz

5 months ago

He also wants good relations with the Iranians. Iranian bases coming soon?

1

greengasper

5 months ago

When this guy confirmed that there are talks with the Russians, it's unlikely that Russia would leave all the military bases https://x.com/AlHadath/status/1867936210401808495

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

denizz

5 months ago

"We could have bombed you but didn't" =/= "Please stay even though you were bombing us last week"

1

greengasper

5 months ago

When this guy confirmed that there are talks with the Russians, it's unlikely that Russia would leave all the military bases https://x.com/AlHadath/status/1867936210401808495

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

denizz

5 months ago

This war has turned Ukraine into the world's #1 exporter of based https://x.com/SpoxUkraineMFA/status/1867614113276527081

4

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

denizz

5 months ago

You really think there's a scenario where they fully evacuate the air base but not the port?

0

greengasper

5 months ago

These withdrawals that you see are part of the deal. There are many bases in syria that belong to Russia and now they evacuate all of them except two. Russia will maintain a minimal military presence in Syria, which will not qualify for a Yes ,

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

denizz

5 months ago

doesn't explain why they're pulling the air defense from Hmeimim

0

greengasper

5 months ago

These withdrawals that you see are part of the deal. There are many bases in syria that belong to Russia and now they evacuate all of them except two. Russia will maintain a minimal military presence in Syria, which will not qualify for a Yes ,

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

denizz

5 months ago

But but sources at the Russian Defense Ministry told Bloomberg that HTS love them!!

1

0xCheshire

5 months ago

Military analysts in the German Defense Ministry assess that Russian forces in the bases in Tartus and Latakia (Khmeimim) are preparing their complete withdrawal. Security guarantees are only limited to their peaceful withdrawal. They also asses that the port of Tartus has already been abandoned.

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

denizz

5 months ago

Anyone have full text of the Spiegel article?

0

U.S. arms embargo on Israel in 2024?

denizz

5 months ago

true, this is a funny market

2

moshemoshemoshe

5 months ago

There is on-going embargo from the US on Israel for a long time, it is not include everything there is embargo for sure, like D9..

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

denizz

5 months ago

I actually tipped you $18 one time

2

its.just.fire

5 months ago

oh no,hamas will not agree to the deal now: Gaza’s Hamas-run civil defense agency says a series of Israeli air strikes killed at least 58 people, including 12 guards securing aid trucks

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

denizz

5 months ago

wow sounds serious!

1

its.just.fire

5 months ago

oh no,hamas will not agree to the deal now: Gaza’s Hamas-run civil defense agency says a series of Israeli air strikes killed at least 58 people, including 12 guards securing aid trucks

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

denizz

5 months ago

The Russians went from war criming HTS to its new sugar daddy in less than a week. Incredible!

2

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

denizz

5 months ago

It'll be kinda funny if this happens January 1.

3

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

denizz

5 months ago

this is the same bloomberg report to clarify

3

YesYourMama

5 months ago

The Telegraph: Sources in Moscow, Europe and the Middle East said the Kremlin believed it had an “informal understanding” that it could keep control of the bases.

Will the U.S. remove HTS from terror list before March?

denizz

5 months ago

HTS officially disbanding won't be enough to resolve their legal issues. Delisting would still be beneficial in that case..

5

Will Hamas allow IDF to remain in Gaza?

denizz

5 months ago

Uninvestable

1

Will Russia pull out of Syria before April 2025?

denizz

5 months ago

Russia's public statement is fairly hedged: We have started contacts with the political administration of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham and the contacts are constructive Moscow is counting on the continuation of its two bases in Syria The bases on Syrian territory remain where they were and no further decisions have been taken yet

1

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

denizz

5 months ago

Russia's public statement is fairly hedged "We have started contacts with the political administration of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham and the contacts are constructive Moscow is counting on the continuation of its two bases in Syria The bases on Syrian territory remain where they were and no further decisions have been taken yet"

6

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

denizz

5 months ago

"We have started contacts with the political administration of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham and the contacts are constructive Moscow is counting on the continuation of its two bases in Syria The bases on Syrian territory remain where they were and no further decisions have been taken yet" AKA nothing yet

0

greengasper

5 months ago

Breaking : Russian Foreign Ministry: Moscow counts on the continuation of its two bases in Syria

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

denizz

5 months ago

https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2019/03/collision-avoidance-the-lessons-of-us-and-russian-operations-in-syria?lang=en

0

denizz

5 months ago

This Bloomberg article is obviously bad for yes, but it honestly doesn't make much sense for Syria to allow Russia to stay, or for the US and Europe to accept continued Russian presence. If I was Jolani I would get an offer from Russia and shop it to the West. Getting rid of Russia in Syria would be a concrete win for the West and it should be a layup.

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

denizz

5 months ago

Russia and the US have a deconfliction mechanism. Russia can't fly east of the Eurphrates as long as the US is deployed there.

0

denizz

5 months ago

This Bloomberg article is obviously bad for yes, but it honestly doesn't make much sense for Syria to allow Russia to stay, or for the US and Europe to accept continued Russian presence. If I was Jolani I would get an offer from Russia and shop it to the West. Getting rid of Russia in Syria would be a concrete win for the West and it should be a layup.

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

denizz

5 months ago

Well Russia can't do anything in NE Syria as long as the US is there.

0

denizz

5 months ago

This Bloomberg article is obviously bad for yes, but it honestly doesn't make much sense for Syria to allow Russia to stay, or for the US and Europe to accept continued Russian presence. If I was Jolani I would get an offer from Russia and shop it to the West. Getting rid of Russia in Syria would be a concrete win for the West and it should be a layup.

Will Russia pull out of Syria before April 2025?

denizz

5 months ago

This Bloomberg article is obviously bad for yes, but it honestly doesn't make much sense for Syria to allow Russia to stay, or for the US and Europe to accept continued Russian presence. If I was Jolani I would get an offer from Russia and shop it to the West. Getting rid of Russia in Syria would be a concrete win for the West and it should be a layup.

2

Will Russia pull out of Syria before April 2025?

denizz

5 months ago

https://gur.gov.ua/content/zahul-u-tartusi-rosiiany-pyiachat-ta-maroderiat-v-ochikuvanni-evakuatsii-z-syriiskykh-baz.html

0

denizz

5 months ago

Ukraine: To export weapons and military equipment from the base in Tartus, the Russian ships Ivan Gren and Alexander Otrakovsky continue to move. Now they are in the Norwegian Sea, in a few days their passage by the English Channel. The Russian Sparta dry cargo moves to the Syrian port, which left the city of Baltiysk. The ship Sparta II, which departed from St. Petersburg, is also planned to be involved in the export of military equipment from the Arab Republic.

Will Russia pull out of Syria before April 2025?

denizz

5 months ago

Ukraine: To export weapons and military equipment from the base in Tartus, the Russian ships Ivan Gren and Alexander Otrakovsky continue to move. Now they are in the Norwegian Sea, in a few days their passage by the English Channel. The Russian Sparta dry cargo moves to the Syrian port, which left the city of Baltiysk. The ship Sparta II, which departed from St. Petersburg, is also planned to be involved in the export of military equipment from the Arab Republic.

0

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

denizz

5 months ago

I saw something about the Sparta IV not going to Tartus but it's the Spart II that's going. something besides that?

0

WarDrugs

5 months ago

Clash Report EXCLUSIVE: According to Russian sources approached by Clash Report, the Kremlin is in direct contact with Syrian forces that captured Damascus and has agreed in principle on returning to military bases in Syria. Russian officials emphasized they never fully withdrew from Syria, maintaining a core military presence at the bases. Syrian forces reportedly stated there was no need for Russia to leave the country. https://x.com/clashreport/status/1866810596496212411

Will Russia pull out of Syria before April 2025?

denizz

5 months ago

According to Ukraine, there are 4 Russian evac ships sailing towards Tartus. This is somewhat confirmed by the fact that one of them was spotted leaving the Baltic yesterday, and one of them left St. Petersburg yesterday.

1

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

denizz

5 months ago

We have a fleet of about 4 Russian evac ships sailing towards Tartus

0

WarDrugs

5 months ago

Clash Report EXCLUSIVE: According to Russian sources approached by Clash Report, the Kremlin is in direct contact with Syrian forces that captured Damascus and has agreed in principle on returning to military bases in Syria. Russian officials emphasized they never fully withdrew from Syria, maintaining a core military presence at the bases. Syrian forces reportedly stated there was no need for Russia to leave the country. https://x.com/clashreport/status/1866810596496212411

Will Russia pull out of Syria before April 2025?

denizz

5 months ago

Russian troops exiting Syria into Turkey: https://x.com/milanczerny/status/1866883554078011862

1

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

denizz

5 months ago

likely wishful thinking. Russia seems to be touting whatever relations it has with Syrian oppositin figures who aren't empowered rn

0

WarDrugs

5 months ago

Clash Report EXCLUSIVE: According to Russian sources approached by Clash Report, the Kremlin is in direct contact with Syrian forces that captured Damascus and has agreed in principle on returning to military bases in Syria. Russian officials emphasized they never fully withdrew from Syria, maintaining a core military presence at the bases. Syrian forces reportedly stated there was no need for Russia to leave the country. https://x.com/clashreport/status/1866810596496212411

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

denizz

5 months ago

Well hope isn't quite definitive but most signals remain positive

0

its.just.fire

5 months ago

guy,the deal will be announced in the next 10 days...its pretty much guaranteed by now.

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

denizz

5 months ago

Why so angry, no holders?

0

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

5 months ago

The rules are primarily about Mashal in particular

0

Kaz15

5 months ago

The question is about Hamas leadership not anyone in particular. Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

5 months ago

UMA already ruled on this

0

denizz

5 months ago

NYT: A few weeks ago, Qatar, which hosts Hamas’s leaders in exile, raised the pressure by indicating that the group’s top officials might no longer be welcome in the country if the deadlock persisted, leading some to briefly leave Qatar. But the Gulf state has once again begun mediating between the two sides.

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

5 months ago

Only in the context of a Qatari statement that leaders were removed

0

denizz

5 months ago

NYT: A few weeks ago, Qatar, which hosts Hamas’s leaders in exile, raised the pressure by indicating that the group’s top officials might no longer be welcome in the country if the deadlock persisted, leading some to briefly leave Qatar. But the Gulf state has once again begun mediating between the two sides.

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

5 months ago

As we know, the group that was pressured out of Qatar notably excluded Khaled Mashal, who this bet is likely to resolve based on per the rules.

0

denizz

5 months ago

NYT: A few weeks ago, Qatar, which hosts Hamas’s leaders in exile, raised the pressure by indicating that the group’s top officials might no longer be welcome in the country if the deadlock persisted, leading some to briefly leave Qatar. But the Gulf state has once again begun mediating between the two sides.

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

5 months ago

NYT: A few weeks ago, Qatar, which hosts Hamas’s leaders in exile, raised the pressure by indicating that the group’s top officials might no longer be welcome in the country if the deadlock persisted, leading some to briefly leave Qatar. But the Gulf state has once again begun mediating between the two sides.

0

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

5 months ago

Someone already lost their bond doing that

0

ACMax

5 months ago

This whole matter is already settled; someone should propose a 'Yes' resolution

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

denizz

5 months ago

The author time travelled from 1899 to unironically use the phrase "warm water port"

0

0xd46BE610A32E5C6eE094977E3CaF9aB89C525DaB-1721880533746

5 months ago

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/09/moscow-reaches-out-to-new-syrian-leadership-in-move-to-secure-bases

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

denizz

5 months ago

remember to take your meds plz

1

its.just.fire

5 months ago

Positive progress has been made in the negotiations for the release of the kidnapped. The evening news on Kan 11 reported today (Sunday) that, according to Israeli sources, there is currently a "small deal on the table" that discusses the release of kidnapped men and women who are considered "humanitarian cases" - but Israel is working to increase the number of those released.

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

denizz

5 months ago

they fought and lost

0

titimiquito

5 months ago

Its the only naval base in mediterran sea. Nothing is syria worth fighting for except that base .

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

5 months ago

true

0

denizz

5 months ago

Qatar has ended its partial ban on Hamas leaders and khaled mashal was never banned. This will resolve to no

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

denizz

5 months ago

The new Syrian govt doesn't like Russia

4

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

5 months ago

Qatar has ended its partial ban on Hamas leaders and khaled mashal was never banned. This will resolve to no

0

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

denizz

5 months ago

Hezbollah =/= Hamas

5

b809

5 months ago

So just to understand..the same market was resolved as yes a few days ago, now there is the same one with no winning ?

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

5 months ago

That is, Axios reported he was in Qatar on Nov 17 and we have a photo of him there this week.

0

FrancisSP8

5 months ago

Why isn't it will resolved based on a consensus of credible reporting? Any credible reports that favor the NO side of this market?

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

5 months ago

Best resources indicate he was there continuously. Khalil al Hayya and some others were banned but unfortunately the rules stress Meshal.

0

FrancisSP8

5 months ago

Why isn't it will resolved based on a consensus of credible reporting? Any credible reports that favor the NO side of this market?

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

5 months ago

Not exactly. The photo in Qatar proves he's not banned from there, but a photo in an other country doesn't prove he is banned. The rules ask for credible reporting that he has "moved", which I think will be interpreted to mean moved his residence.

1

FrancisSP8

5 months ago

Why isn't it will resolved based on a consensus of credible reporting? Any credible reports that favor the NO side of this market?

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

denizz

5 months ago

The ceasefire in Lebanon reduced military activity by like 98%

4

georgiatech

5 months ago

when we see whats happening in lebanon. they will just do pointless ceasefire. and war will still goes on. so yeah. its kinda ironic

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

5 months ago

Khaled Mashal never moved from Qatar. He was photographed there this week

0

FrancisSP8

5 months ago

Why isn't it will resolved based on a consensus of credible reporting? Any credible reports that favor the NO side of this market?

Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?

denizz

5 months ago

when money

1

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

5 months ago

It’s been over a month since qatar gave Hamas some kind of notice. But mashal is still in qatar

0

ACMax

5 months ago

If not already, this will happen soon: https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/mena/2024/11/09/qatar-hamas-leaders/

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

5 months ago

As to location, it was taken in Mashal's reception room in Qatar.

0

denizz

5 months ago

Khaled Mashal was still in Qatar yesterday http://x.com/asifluqman/status/1863700858434720140

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

5 months ago

I mean, Qazi is definitely in Qatar rn. Doubt the picture is from a different date than described. There is actually minimal sourcing saying Mashal left. Basically just Sky News Arabia, which is notoriously unreliable.

0

denizz

5 months ago

Khaled Mashal was still in Qatar yesterday http://x.com/asifluqman/status/1863700858434720140

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

5 months ago

I geoconfirmed this photo

0

denizz

5 months ago

Khaled Mashal was still in Qatar yesterday http://x.com/asifluqman/status/1863700858434720140

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

5 months ago

Khaled Mashal was still in Qatar yesterday http://x.com/asifluqman/status/1863700858434720140

0

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

5 months ago

I actually went to the trouble of geoconfirming it.

0

denizz

5 months ago

Note that Mashal was still in Doha yesterday, contradicting the Sky News Arabia report http://x.com/asifluqman/status/1863700858434720140

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

5 months ago

http://x.com/asifluqman/status/1863700858434720140

0

greengasper

5 months ago

Dramatic report: All Hamas leaders and their families - left the territory of Qatar : https://x.com/Now14Israel/status/1863569909701022025

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

5 months ago

That's just a recycling of the Sky News Arabia report which is proven wrong

0

greengasper

5 months ago

Dramatic report: All Hamas leaders and their families - left the territory of Qatar : https://x.com/Now14Israel/status/1863569909701022025

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

5 months ago

Those buying in should consider checking the UMA vote. The vote was 100-0 against resolving to yes just a couple days ago. Many yes holders misinterpreted the rules and got burned.

0

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

5 months ago

🤦 I tried

0

greengasper

5 months ago

Note that Denizz is a scammer and lie as if people don’t read the rules. The rules explicitly state that the market qualifies for a 'Yes' resolution even if Khaled Mashal has not been confirmed to have moved if credible news confirms the departure of other Hamas leaders from Qatar..

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

5 months ago

The rules are confusing, but that is incorrect. It's true that if cred sources confirm Mashal moved it will resolve yes.

0

greengasper

5 months ago

Note that Denizz is a scammer and lie as if people don’t read the rules. The rules explicitly state that the market qualifies for a 'Yes' resolution even if Khaled Mashal has not been confirmed to have moved if credible news confirms the departure of other Hamas leaders from Qatar..

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

5 months ago

Note that Mashal was still in Doha yesterday, contradicting the Sky News Arabia report http://x.com/asifluqman/status/1863700858434720140

0

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

5 months ago

I said the news from yesterday isn't enough added info to resolve to yes

0

denizz

5 months ago

Reasons this will almost certainly go no: 1. It is over a month since Qatar gave some Hamas leaders a month to vacate. 2. Khaled Mashal was confirmed in Qatar as of yesterday. 3. Axios reported that Khaled Mashal in particular was not expelled. It is clear that Mashal was allowed to remain even if other Hamas leaders left. This market resolves based on Mashal per the rules.

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

5 months ago

I'm just giving it to you straight. I could have milked this market for more liquidity. Qatar said that some Hamas leaders *left* not that they were *removed*. UMA *already voted 100-0* that this wasn't enough to resolve.

0

denizz

5 months ago

Reasons this will almost certainly go no: 1. It is over a month since Qatar gave some Hamas leaders a month to vacate. 2. Khaled Mashal was confirmed in Qatar as of yesterday. 3. Axios reported that Khaled Mashal in particular was not expelled. It is clear that Mashal was allowed to remain even if other Hamas leaders left. This market resolves based on Mashal per the rules.

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

5 months ago

An official statement from the Government of Qatar announcing the removal of Hamas leadership from the country will qualify for a “Yes” resolution even if Khaled Mashal is not been confirmed to have moved.

0

denizz

5 months ago

Reasons this will almost certainly go no: 1. It is over a month since Qatar gave some Hamas leaders a month to vacate. 2. Khaled Mashal was confirmed in Qatar as of yesterday. 3. Axios reported that Khaled Mashal in particular was not expelled. It is clear that Mashal was allowed to remain even if other Hamas leaders left. This market resolves based on Mashal per the rules.

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

5 months ago

That only applies to Qatari statements that (all) Hamas leaders were expelled.

0

denizz

5 months ago

Reasons this will almost certainly go no: 1. It is over a month since Qatar gave some Hamas leaders a month to vacate. 2. Khaled Mashal was confirmed in Qatar as of yesterday. 3. Axios reported that Khaled Mashal in particular was not expelled. It is clear that Mashal was allowed to remain even if other Hamas leaders left. This market resolves based on Mashal per the rules.

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

5 months ago

Reasons this will almost certainly go no: 1. It is over a month since Qatar gave some Hamas leaders a month to vacate. 2. Khaled Mashal was confirmed in Qatar as of yesterday. 3. Axios reported that Khaled Mashal in particular was not expelled. It is clear that Mashal was allowed to remain even if other Hamas leaders left. This market resolves based on Mashal per the rules.

0

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

5 months ago

No it doesn't

0

Car

5 months ago

This is the type of market that can not resolve unless its confirmed in detail Khaled Mashal has left Qatar.. which isnt going to happen

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

5 months ago

Only because it was proposed before the ceasefire

0

Car

5 months ago

This is the type of market that can not resolve unless its confirmed in detail Khaled Mashal has left Qatar.. which isnt going to happen

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

5 months ago

Result is guaranteed due to clarification

0

Car

5 months ago

This is the type of market that can not resolve unless its confirmed in detail Khaled Mashal has left Qatar.. which isnt going to happen

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

5 months ago

Hez market is about to resolve to yes dude

0

Car

5 months ago

This is the type of market that can not resolve unless its confirmed in detail Khaled Mashal has left Qatar.. which isnt going to happen

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

5 months ago

https://vote.uma.xyz/past-votes

0

denizz

5 months ago

Bear in mind, UMA just ruled this too early by a vote of 100-0. One Sky News Arabia report isn't enough to resolve this, as they have credibility issues.

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

5 months ago

Bear in mind, UMA just ruled this too early by a vote of 100-0. One Sky News Arabia report isn't enough to resolve this, as they have credibility issues.

0

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

5 months ago

It looks like Sawsan Mehanna was just recycling the sky news report.

0

denizz

5 months ago

Sky News Arabia is spotty/unreliable

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

5 months ago

Are you referring to anyone besides Sawsan Mehanna?

0

denizz

5 months ago

Sky News Arabia is spotty/unreliable

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

5 months ago

pretty sure they were just recycling the sky news report. But if you post we can discuss.

0

denizz

5 months ago

Sky News Arabia is spotty/unreliable

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

5 months ago

Sky News Arabia is spotty/unreliable

0

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

denizz

5 months ago

I wouldn't talk shit at -1k personally

0

WolkOld

5 months ago

Why was this proposed YES?

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

denizz

5 months ago

someone confused Hamas and Hezbollah

3

WolkOld

5 months ago

Why was this proposed YES?

Will ICC withdraw its arrest warrant against Netanyahu before July?

denizz

5 months ago

ICC has a weak case

1

DaveedOftheSnows

5 months ago

Why is yes so high? Has the ICC ever withdrawn a warrant ever? (Except in the case of the indictee’s death)

U.S. arms embargo on Israel in 2024?

denizz

5 months ago

Valuable not reliable. We’re on the same side

0

HolyMoses

5 months ago

Benjamin Nethanyahu said himself the US didn't supply certain supplies to Israel and this was one of the reasons for the ceasefire in Lebanon.

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

denizz

5 months ago

Well it’s hezb’s paper but it could be worse tbh

0

Zio-Laser

5 months ago

Here we go. Buy yes while it's still cheap: https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/399901?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

denizz

5 months ago

Partially based on the al akhbar article

0

Zio-Laser

5 months ago

Here we go. Buy yes while it's still cheap: https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/399901?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share

U.S. arms embargo on Israel in 2024?

denizz

5 months ago

Discuss on discord?

0

denizz

5 months ago

Israel Channel 14: The army's support for a ceasefire in the north makes sense: refreshing reserve forces, ending the American embargo, and time to arm and strengthen.

U.S. arms embargo on Israel in 2024?

denizz

5 months ago

Netanyahu is a corrupt politician so no he isn’t that credible. However he is correct in this instance

0

HolyMoses

5 months ago

Benjamin Nethanyahu said himself the US didn't supply certain supplies to Israel and this was one of the reasons for the ceasefire in Lebanon.

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

denizz

5 months ago

Arutz Sheva is a settler rag! Nothing to see here!

0

Zio-Laser

5 months ago

Here we go. Buy yes while it's still cheap: https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/399901?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

denizz

5 months ago

Al Akhbar is a terrorist newspaper! Unreliable!

0

Zio-Laser

5 months ago

Here we go. Buy yes while it's still cheap: https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/399901?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

5 months ago

Jaroslav = me fwiw

0

WindWalk2

5 months ago

Kaizer, I spoke with Jaroslav and he is open to friendship if you get your act together and stop submiting resolutions based on... air. Before you propose a resolution, copy and paste the article into ChatGPT and ask it if it fulfills the market conditions.

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

5 months ago

Kaizer sorry about your $750

0

Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024?

denizz

5 months ago

"The response to #Israel's recent aggression has been devised beyond what the regime's [Israeli] leaders can imagine," Chief of Staff of #Iran's regime's Armed Forces, Mohammad Bagheri, said on Tuesday.

0

U.S. arms embargo on Israel in 2024?

denizz

5 months ago

Israel Channel 14: The army's support for a ceasefire in the north makes sense: refreshing reserve forces, ending the American embargo, and time to arm and strengthen.

0

Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024?

denizz

5 months ago

I mean they tried to assassinate Masih Alinejad and Trump

0

babadani2999

5 months ago

Retarded market proposal: Will Iran strike USA in 2024?

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

5 months ago

at least two senior Hamas officials have left Qatar for Turkey, an Israeli diplomatic source and a senator briefed by Israeli officials told JI.

0

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

5 months ago

Kaizer, since you wouldn't fill my order at 65, time to stop whining about how the market should be resolved immediately. If that was the case, 65 would have been a steal.

0

U.S. arms embargo on Israel in 2024?

denizz

5 months ago

Rules: "An arms embargo is defined as a formal U.S. government action that prohibits or restricts the sale, transfer, or delivery of military weapons or defense equipment...A limited embargo, restricting only certain categories of military equipment, will qualify for a "Yes" resolution."

1

denizz

5 months ago

For months the Biden-Harris administration has sought to restrain Israeli military operations by blocking or delaying the delivery of weapons--far more weapons than has been reported. It is widely known that the White House has blocked the delivery of 2,000-pound MK-84 bombs to Israel, despite Congress's approving their transfer. But Israeli officials have told us that the list of affected weapons is far more extensive. They told us that the Defense Department is slowing the delivery of thousands of 1,000-pound MK-83 bombs, 500-pound MK-82 bombs, and Joint Direct Attack Munitions... https://www.wsj.com/opinion/now-that-harris-has-lost-let-israel-win-hamas-hezbollah-weapons-biden-blocks-shipments-0fd7c482

U.S. arms embargo on Israel in 2024?

denizz

5 months ago

For months the Biden-Harris administration has sought to restrain Israeli military operations by blocking or delaying the delivery of weapons--far more weapons than has been reported. It is widely known that the White House has blocked the delivery of 2,000-pound MK-84 bombs to Israel, despite Congress's approving their transfer. But Israeli officials have told us that the list of affected weapons is far more extensive. They told us that the Defense Department is slowing the delivery of thousands of 1,000-pound MK-83 bombs, 500-pound MK-82 bombs, and Joint Direct Attack Munitions... https://www.wsj.com/opinion/now-that-harris-has-lost-let-israel-win-hamas-hezbollah-weapons-biden-blocks-shipments-0fd7c482

1

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

5 months ago

Kaiser I put some liquidity in. My honest advice is don’t buy.

1

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

5 months ago

Even if they were expelled in fact that is not what Qatar announced

0

denizz

5 months ago

1. Qatar did not announce the "removal" or expulsion of any Hamas leaders. 2. It's pretty clear that this market should not resolve to yes unless Khaled Meshal moves away from Qatar or he is part of a group of Hamas leaders that are announced as persona non grata by Qatar. Kaiser's theory that this market can resolve without Meshal is tenuous as it seems to go against the intent of the person who wrote the rules.

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

5 months ago

No longer in =/= removed or expelled

0

denizz

5 months ago

1. Qatar did not announce the "removal" or expulsion of any Hamas leaders. 2. It's pretty clear that this market should not resolve to yes unless Khaled Meshal moves away from Qatar or he is part of a group of Hamas leaders that are announced as persona non grata by Qatar. Kaiser's theory that this market can resolve without Meshal is tenuous as it seems to go against the intent of the person who wrote the rules.

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

5 months ago

1. Qatar did not announce the "removal" or expulsion of any Hamas leaders. 2. It's pretty clear that this market should not resolve to yes unless Khaled Meshal moves away from Qatar or he is part of a group of Hamas leaders that are announced as persona non grata by Qatar. Kaiser's theory that this market can resolve without Meshal is tenuous as it seems to go against the intent of the person who wrote the rules.

3

U.S. arms embargo on Israel in 2024?

denizz

5 months ago

Israel Channel 12: While the IDF is fighting in Gaza and Lebanon - the shipment of approximately 20,000 Mk84 bombs weighing a ton from the US to Israel is delayed by the decision of the Biden administration. Intense talks are taking place between senior Israeli security officials and their counterparts in the American government, in an effort to resolve the crisis. Last week we reported in the main edition that US President-elect Donald Trump delivered a dramatic message to Israel: immediately after the inauguration ceremony on Capitol Hill, he will lift all delays and embargoes on shipments of weapons and military equipment to Israel.

1

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

5 months ago

It was specifically reported that Mashal has not left but al Hayya and others have left.

0

denizz

6 months ago

“The office of Hamas in Doha was created for the sake of the mediation process. Obviously, when there is no mediation process, the office itself doesn’t have any function,” he added, declining to confirm whether Qatar had asked the Hamas officials to leave, as has been reported.

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

5 months ago

what's your basis for that assertion?

0

denizz

6 months ago

“The office of Hamas in Doha was created for the sake of the mediation process. Obviously, when there is no mediation process, the office itself doesn’t have any function,” he added, declining to confirm whether Qatar had asked the Hamas officials to leave, as has been reported.

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

6 months ago

(Qatar spokesman)

0

denizz

6 months ago

“The office of Hamas in Doha was created for the sake of the mediation process. Obviously, when there is no mediation process, the office itself doesn’t have any function,” he added, declining to confirm whether Qatar had asked the Hamas officials to leave, as has been reported.

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

6 months ago

“The office of Hamas in Doha was created for the sake of the mediation process. Obviously, when there is no mediation process, the office itself doesn’t have any function,” he added, declining to confirm whether Qatar had asked the Hamas officials to leave, as has been reported.

0

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

6 months ago

what else is new

0

NERA

6 months ago

Hamas officially deny

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

6 months ago

Senior members of Hamas's abroad leadership left Qatar last week for Turkey, an Arab diplomat tells The Times of Israel.

0

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

6 months ago

Why you turning tail then?

0

cashy

6 months ago

https://x.com/janissaxon2/status/1858231588540326176?s=46&t=6qeIsVT0-gcKywgVXjos4w Buying yes is a financial suicide

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

6 months ago

source?

0

XiJinPing

6 months ago

YES holders who bought are fake news are panicking lmao

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

6 months ago

Already half the Hamas leadership left. Eviction wasn't just from US officials. Reported globally. They'll leave the office open with lower level staff.

0

XiJinPing

6 months ago

YES holders who bought are fake news are panicking lmao

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

6 months ago

The one that was reported globally a week ago

0

denizz

6 months ago

Mashal will likely move to Turkey also due to the eviction order. You know, the eviction order that totally isn't real.

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

6 months ago

Mashal will likely move to Turkey also due to the eviction order. You know, the eviction order that totally isn't real.

0

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

6 months ago

Actually they don't deny evicting senior leaders. They denied completely closing the Hamas office.

0

XiJinPing

6 months ago

YES holders who bought are fake news are panicking lmao

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

6 months ago

Kan is "Jewish propaganda" and Barak Ravid is hard gentile news, makes sense.

0

XiJinPing

6 months ago

Kann news is jewish / zionist propaganda with consistently fake news... while Barak David is Axios

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

6 months ago

Why not? Eviction doesn't apply to him because?

0

XiJinPing

6 months ago

YES holders who bought are fake news are panicking lmao

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

6 months ago

First of all, post a source for that.

0

cashy

6 months ago

Barak Ravid, the reputable source that is being used to solve the Iran Nuclear Strike market, has posted the Khaled Mashal is still in Qatar, and as the rules indicate he must move for it to solve yes - we're looking great. https://x.com/BarakRavid/status/1858214861190176909

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

6 months ago

Half the Hamas leadership already moved from Qatar to Turkey. That is not fake news whatsoever.

0

XiJinPing

6 months ago

YES holders who bought are fake news are panicking lmao

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

6 months ago

First it was "Qatar Foreign Affairs has said the reports of them kicking out Hamas are false. " Then it was "Blah blah Israeli propaganda". And now its "muh Mashal still in Qatar". Get your story straight: is the eviction order real or isn't it? If the eviction order isn't real, how come half the Hamas leadership is already in Turkey? Canasta tournament?

0

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

6 months ago

Actually they didn't deny that properly. And how come half the leadership already moved to Turkey? Coincidence?

0

cashy

6 months ago

Barak Ravid, the reputable source that is being used to solve the Iran Nuclear Strike market, has posted the Khaled Mashal is still in Qatar, and as the rules indicate he must move for it to solve yes - we're looking great. https://x.com/BarakRavid/status/1858214861190176909

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

6 months ago

Half the Hamas leadership already moved, confirming that the eviction notice is real.

0

cashy

6 months ago

Barak Ravid, the reputable source that is being used to solve the Iran Nuclear Strike market, has posted the Khaled Mashal is still in Qatar, and as the rules indicate he must move for it to solve yes - we're looking great. https://x.com/BarakRavid/status/1858214861190176909

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

6 months ago

Or I'm deloading to realize considerable gains and potentially buy back cheaper

0

cashy

6 months ago

Great! We just got confirmation that Mashal is in Qatar from Barak Ravid (his reports are being used to solve Iran Nuclear market). Send NO to 99c

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

6 months ago

He can go to Turkey without getting killed, is my point.

0

cashy

6 months ago

Great! We just got confirmation that Mashal is in Qatar from Barak Ravid (his reports are being used to solve Iran Nuclear market). Send NO to 99c

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

6 months ago

That's wrong. He goes to Turkey frequently and sometimes Egypt

0

cashy

6 months ago

Great! We just got confirmation that Mashal is in Qatar from Barak Ravid (his reports are being used to solve Iran Nuclear market). Send NO to 99c

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

6 months ago

Market ends January 20

1

cashy

6 months ago

Great! We just got confirmation that Mashal is in Qatar from Barak Ravid (his reports are being used to solve Iran Nuclear market). Send NO to 99c

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

why?

0

Shmultz

6 months ago

Unlike other markets, this one will resolve fast. I belive his son will make his formal appearance very soon

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

coma is fake news

1

Toncar16

6 months ago

Iran International, a Saudi-influenced Persian-language international media outlet owned by opponents of the mullahs' regime, reported today that Tehran has secretly chosen the successor to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. It is Mojtaba Khamenei, his second son. He would take over from his father even before the latter's death. Ali Khamenei, 85, is gravely ill and, according to some reports, is in a coma.

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

"Several social media posts emerged on Saturday alleging"

0

AmirDov

6 months ago

https://en.protothema.gr/2024/11/17/intense-speculation-regarding-the-health-of-khamenei-the-supreme-leader-of-iran-is-in-a-coma/ https://www.jewishpress.com/news/middle-east/iran-news/reports-ayatollah-ali-khamenei-85-in-a-coma/2024/11/17/ 2 more publications that have recently covered the developing story

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

probable misspelling of Khomeini

0

Remontada

6 months ago

Who is Khamenei

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

I reckon that high explosives research for nuclear bomb development will count as nuclear tech dev for the purposes of this market. Also, inspectors did find uranium there, in 2015 iirc.

0

FrancisSP8

6 months ago

On top of all the problems other raised (unreliable report, no consensus, activity was over 20 years ago), there is an important misunderstanding on what "nuclear technology" means. The work that was alleged to have happened in Parchin up to 2003 is regarding nuclear detonators. Despite the name, nuclear detonators are NOT nuclear technology. They direct energy from a conventional explosion to generate enough pressure for a nuclear reaction. So the work itself does not involve fissile material, nuclear energy, nuclear reactions or anything of that sort. The fissile material is brought in only when a nuclear bomb is actually tested, which Iran has never done. The IAEA has additionally examined the site and found no evidence of fissile material. Of course, some claimed this was due to sanitization efforts. However, it is extremely difficult to remove all trace radiation from a site that handled fissile material. Bottom line: not only is Parchin no longer relevant, it was NEVER involved in "development, enrichment, storage, or processing of nuclear material or technology".

Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

I lost brain cells reading this

1

Tentaclecracy

6 months ago

Alright guys, you have convinced me. A truce will be announced on Monday. A great last political victory for sleepy Joe, bloodthirsty IDF will have to go home. I'll just keep the shares as a commemoration token.

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

All the new no holders can come out unscathed if they sell at this point.

2

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

Combined they have minimal profit

0

GodPunishment

6 months ago

btw, all NO holder here has a negative balance, they tried to make an easy 10X, but life aint work that way

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

And more no holders brigading them with new accounts would be self defeating I imagine.

0

denizz

6 months ago

The evidence and rationale discords heavily favor yes.

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

The evidence and rationale discords heavily favor yes.

4

Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

ah right. well OTOH he said he looked forward to a truce within hours and that was 2 weeks ago now

0

NERA

6 months ago

Lebanon is now hinting the deal is coming

Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

you mean yesterday?

0

NERA

6 months ago

Lebanon is now hinting the deal is coming

Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

Source?

0

NERA

6 months ago

Lebanon is now hinting the deal is coming

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

you missed a good chance to sell for .10 just now

0

yyyyyyyllllll

6 months ago

If I was a YES holder, holding YES will not be valuable any more, I will sell YES when it is high price, and buy NO with the profit of the YES deal when NO is cheap

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

Now US officials are saying the opposite to the press

1

yyyyyyyllllll

6 months ago

BBC and The White House says NO "The White House described the strikes as an "exercise of self-defence". A senior administration official said the US had worked with Israel to encourage a "targeted and proportional" response. They also said the attacks did not damage Iranian oil infrastructure or nuclear facilities - targets President Joe Biden had urged Israel not to hit." https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cgr0yvrx4qpo

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

old

0

arthurtoto

6 months ago

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/israels-attack-iran-what-we-know-so-far its said no on facility

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

why are you betting yes then?

0

RedMercy

6 months ago

bro ngl, I am scared the news is not legit anybody got anything that can qualm my fears right now?

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

If polymarket wanted a good reputation they'd hire lawyers to write these rules and compliance officers so they don't get raided by the feds

0

yyyyyyyllllll

6 months ago

Without any official statements, to consider it a consensus based solely on an unsigned article and to prematurely judge the outcome would undermine the credibility of Polymarket. Users would be left with no choice but to stay away. At least we can wait more infomation.

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

won't make a difference

0

denizz

6 months ago

Top 5 yes holders: $1.2 million P&L Top 5 no holders: $17K P&L

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

Top 5 yes holders: $1.2 million P&L Top 5 no holders: $17K P&L

0

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

The top no holder just threw in the towel

0

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

reuters article is stale

2

yyyyyyyllllll

6 months ago

Reuters says it is "defunct", Axios says it is "active". Obviously it is not consensus.

U.S. arms embargo on Israel in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

"The partial U.S. arms embargo on Israel is affecting the battlefield in Gaza and Lebanon and could pose a risk to IDF soldiers." "While the administration has significantly increased aid by billions of dollars, ... they're still giving us a 'penalty' in the form of these embargoes," https://www.ynetnews.com/article/ryn9yycz1g

0

U.S. arms embargo on Israel in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

"Currently, U.S. restrictions include an embargo on [2,000 lb. bombs] and limitations on various combat-related equipment, even if they do not involve explosive ordnance. This embargo has impacted Israel's defense capabilities, especially as the military now contends with active fronts in both Lebanon and Gaza, requiring strict control over ammunition and supply use. Trump's pledge to lift all military supply restrictions, starting from his first day in office, would allow Israel to replenish its stockpiles and alleviate current constraints." https://www.foxnews.com/world/trump-said-lift-all-military-restrictions-israel-first-day-office-according-reports

0

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

yes

2

w1danik

6 months ago

do nuclear research fascilities count as nuclear fascilities and if they are bombed will my bet be lost?

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

I think UMA will look at the Axios and then put 2 and 2 together to confirm it via the obvious circumstantial evidence.

0

MartinArauz

6 months ago

1. There is no official communication from any State. 2. There is only one source cited by the rest of the media: Axios. Get ready, gentlemen.

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

This was a known nuclear weapons lab that is confirmed destroyed. The only thing we're relying on Axios for is saying that this lab (the most likely one) was the one that was active.

0

MartinArauz

6 months ago

1. There is no official communication from any State. 2. There is only one source cited by the rest of the media: Axios. Get ready, gentlemen.

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

Satellite images ARE NOT fake. That's not the issue here.

0

CamFantastic

6 months ago

i put $5 on No just in case the tinfoil people are right and the satellite footage is fake or some shit. chaos reigns, no gods no masters

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

should be but amn't

0

denizz

6 months ago

Nos might be kind of screwed. Whales starting to bid up into the 90s ...

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

wrong

0

OtoyaYamaguchi

6 months ago

Axios is bull shit

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

Nos might be kind of screwed. Whales starting to bid up into the 90s ...

0

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

I only flipped because i knew it was gonna get disputed and no would go from 2 to 10

1

FrancisSP8

6 months ago

100k shares at 6.5c. That's the spirit!

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

seems like a bad idea

0

FrancisSP8

6 months ago

100k shares at 6.5c. That's the spirit!

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

article lays out the situation pretty convincingly, but still reliant on axios

1

Car

6 months ago

aaaand another big MSM outlet: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/11/15/israel-destroyed-secret-iranian-nuclear-facility-taleghan2/

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

Barak Ravid has been on point

0

NERA

6 months ago

just remember that axios have a history of fake news

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

All the axios really tells us in this regard is that there wasn't some other new mystery weaponization facility.

0

denizz

6 months ago

I kind of changed my mind. Maybe just axios is enough to establish that the Parchin facility was reactivated considering its purpose is well-known from other sources and reactivation of the weaponization program was also reported by other sources. So it's kind of a 1 + 1 = 2 situation.

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

I kind of changed my mind. Maybe just axios is enough to establish that the Parchin facility was reactivated considering its purpose is well-known from other sources and reactivation of the weaponization program was also reported by other sources. So it's kind of a 1 + 1 = 2 situation.

3

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

Al Arabiya is Saudi not houthi

1

LolInvest

6 months ago

I changed my mind, we need an additional report to have a consensus, for 'US military action against Yemen' there was only 1 source but it was not disputed. But I think CNN or AP will publish something in the coming hours/days...

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

I submitted the Yemen market based on Al Arabiya and some other relatively reliable Arabic media. Then there were additional airstrikes and CNN reported that the US claimed them

0

LolInvest

6 months ago

I changed my mind, we need an additional report to have a consensus, for 'US military action against Yemen' there was only 1 source but it was not disputed. But I think CNN or AP will publish something in the coming hours/days...

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

what do you mean? Lolo is referring to CNN iiuc

0

LolInvest

6 months ago

I changed my mind, we need an additional report to have a consensus, for 'US military action against Yemen' there was only 1 source but it was not disputed. But I think CNN or AP will publish something in the coming hours/days...

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

because i think the nyt or someone will confirm the axios story

0

horseshoe-reality

6 months ago

Yes is pretty much guaranteed, just need to wait 2 days but it's essentially free money

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

I said yes is a gamble and this won't resolve right away. I'm willing to take the risk. Others might want to hand off their bags.

0

MisTKy

6 months ago

Denizz is writing to you that No is a good bet and buying a ton of YES shares, be careful...

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

For the Yemen market there was a consensus of credible reporting. The one source was just concerning the us claiming an air raid informally, but it's not at all clear that the market hinged on that.

0

LolInvest

6 months ago

I changed my mind, we need an additional report to have a consensus, for 'US military action against Yemen' there was only 1 source but it was not disputed. But I think CNN or AP will publish something in the coming hours/days...

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

wrong, it will likely resolve to too early

2

horseshoe-reality

6 months ago

Yes is pretty much guaranteed, just need to wait 2 days but it's essentially free money

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

Yes is still a gamble, especially at .92

1

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

Does it? The atomic archive was stolen in 2018, but the contents on project amad dated to years before.

0

MisTKy

6 months ago

Is this enough evidence that they were doing nuclear resarch there ? https://isis-online.org/isis-reports/mobile/new-information-about-the-parchin-site

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

The fact that it was a former nuclear site isn't in dispute. We only have one source saying it was a current nuclear site

1

MisTKy

6 months ago

Is this enough evidence that they were doing nuclear resarch there ? https://isis-online.org/isis-reports/mobile/new-information-about-the-parchin-site

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

you'll have to make your case in the discord but i think the facts are on your side

1

Car

6 months ago

i hope it was worth the 750$

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

I genuinely don't think this should resolve to yes on current info

1

RememberAmalek

6 months ago

N holders should know, and don't shoot the messenger I hold no stake here, you're VERY unlikely to win here.

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

I wouldn't go that high tbh

0

denizz

6 months ago

Yes holders are going to have their money locked up for days and then the dispute will resolve to too early. I am buying yes at a premium because I think we'll get there with more reporting but I'm also notoriously retarded.

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

you are correct afaik

1

RememberAmalek

6 months ago

N holders should know, and don't shoot the messenger I hold no stake here, you're VERY unlikely to win here.

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

Yes holders are going to have their money locked up for days and then the dispute will resolve to too early. I am buying yes at a premium because I think we'll get there with more reporting but I'm also notoriously retarded.

2

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

I doubt it will resolve to yes based on current info

0

RememberAmalek

6 months ago

N holders should know, and don't shoot the messenger I hold no stake here, you're VERY unlikely to win here.

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

or not and

0

Jamma

6 months ago

You said a consensus of media reports and both Iranian and Israeli sources!

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

that's not rly how consensus works. need more than 1 source

1

LolInvest

6 months ago

Failed Fact Checks None in the Last 5 years Overall, we rate Axios just Left of Center biased based on story selection that slightly favors the left. They are High for factual reporting due to proper sourcing and zero failed fact checks. (2/1/2017) Updated (D. Van Zandt 10/16/2024)

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

it's not scamming to switch between yes and no depending on the price. i've been clear about my opinion the whole time.

1

horseshoe-reality

6 months ago

axios is a credible enough source by any metric

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

consensus of reporting is needed

1

horseshoe-reality

6 months ago

axios is a credible enough source by any metric

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

based on axios

3

Iseeintothefuture

6 months ago

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/israel-targeted-active-nuclear-weapons-research-facility-in-iran-strikes-last-month-report/

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

1 credible source is not a consensus

1

LolInvest

6 months ago

Failed Fact Checks None in the Last 5 years Overall, we rate Axios just Left of Center biased based on story selection that slightly favors the left. They are High for factual reporting due to proper sourcing and zero failed fact checks. (2/1/2017) Updated (D. Van Zandt 10/16/2024)

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

This will resolve to P4 - too early. There is only 1 source speaking directly to the terms of the market. That's not a consensus

3

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

no one gives a shit about iran denying. if you're going to pump try harder.

1

numberone

6 months ago

No is soooooooooo free money in my opinion. Iran completely denies the fact that that place is used for nuclear research. They say they absolutely 0 to do with any research or production of Nuclear things. You can find all of this in the AXIOS statement.

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

no u

1

FrancisSP8

6 months ago

there's zero evidence of the *active* nuclear developments in the site that was hit

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

axios story bitch

0

FrancisSP8

6 months ago

there's zero evidence of the *active* nuclear developments in the site that was hit

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

desperate pump

0

numberone

6 months ago

if Iran denies this it wont be resolved in a yes and Iran clearly denied this as they said they are not after any Nuclear weapons at all.

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

false

0

LolInvest

6 months ago

this market has been resolved based on 1 anon US official https://polymarket.com/event/us-military-action-against-yemen-in-2024/us-military-action-against-yemen-in-2024?tid=1731680842362

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

-610 p&l

0

numberone

6 months ago

will be so f---- funny when 'yes' goes back to 10 cents. Can't wait hahahahaha

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

quotes the axios

0

Car

6 months ago

https://m.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-829292

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

won't happen

1

FrancisSP8

6 months ago

It'll be funny to watch it ride all the way back to 10 cents for a yes.

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

quoting axios

1

Car

6 months ago

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/israel-targeted-active-nuclear-weapons-research-facility-in-iran-strikes-last-month-report/

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

because i think it will resolve in the next few days

0

denizz

6 months ago

I advise the no holders to dispute

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

nyt, politico articles are stale

0

XiJinPing

6 months ago

Rules: "Consensus of credible reporting"... there's only Axios reporting YES, while NYT, Politico, etc are reporting NO... clearly no consensus

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

there's only one source saying this was an active nuclear site.

0

denizz

6 months ago

I advise the no holders to dispute

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

key word active

0

LolInvest

6 months ago

there is a high-resolution satellite image, no need 10 different reports, anyone could buy commercial satellite imagery to double-check. It's just confirmed.

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

and?

0

testtestingtesttest

6 months ago

But Taleghan 2 was not part of Iran's declared nuclear program so the Iranians wouldn't be able to acknowledge the significance of the attack without admitting they violated the nuclear non-proliferation treaty.

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

if you mean this shouldn't resolve to yes yet, i happen to agree.

1

XiJinPing

6 months ago

NYT is saying NO ATTACK ON NUCLEAR... there's clearly no consensus

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

stale

1

XiJinPing

6 months ago

NYT is saying NO ATTACK ON NUCLEAR... there's clearly no consensus

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

need a consensus on the target being an active nuclear research site.

0

LolInvest

6 months ago

there is a high-resolution satellite image, no need 10 different reports, anyone could buy commercial satellite imagery to double-check. It's just confirmed.

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

I advise the no holders to dispute

0

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

not enough to resolve yet imo

0

Car

6 months ago

this is gonna be a fun fight

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

I'm a Houthi insider

1

Car

6 months ago

new reporting confirming the previous reports: https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/31737759/israeli-strike-iran-active-nuclear-facility/

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

this is likely to go yes in due course

0

NERA

6 months ago

only insiders or retarded can bet big on Yes here

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

that's still based on axios

0

Car

6 months ago

new reporting confirming the previous reports: https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/31737759/israeli-strike-iran-active-nuclear-facility/

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

it's a reactivated nuclear tech dev facility. only problem is the lack of another confirming source

1

Car

6 months ago

still no other source.. NO might be cooking

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

i'll be the first to argue against it.

0

Justifax

6 months ago

barak @ axios is legit, but for consensus you need another one. wsj or nyt or reuters etc. jpost i guess not, since they reported the invasion started in september...

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

correct, 1 credible source is not consensus. this won't resolve at this time.

1

Justifax

6 months ago

barak @ axios is legit, but for consensus you need another one. wsj or nyt or reuters etc. jpost i guess not, since they reported the invasion started in september...

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

They won't

0

denizz

6 months ago

There is only one original report so far which directly addresses the market criteria. That's not enough.

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

There is only one original report so far which directly addresses the market criteria. That's not enough.

0

Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

The US ambassador to Lebanon submitted a draft truce proposal to Lebanon's speaker of parliament Nabih Berri on Thursday

2

U.S. arms embargo on Israel in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

Trump: On the first day of my term, I will cancel all restrictions and delays on the transfer of armaments and combat equipment https://x.com/AmitSegal/status/1857129657600184500

0

Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

1. This isn't a "military offensive" 2. It's questionable whether the DMZ counts as Syria for the purposes of this market 3. It will be difficult to confirm that the trenches cross into the DMZ 4. It will be difficult to confirm that this was intentional.

0

denizz

6 months ago

"Chief of Mission Bernard Lee estimated that trenches crossed into the AoS in a handful locations, by a couple of metres in each case, but said he had not visited the sites himself. Initial searches of satellite photographs have not produced images in enough detail to independently confirm the UN allegations."

Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

"Chief of Mission Bernard Lee estimated that trenches crossed into the AoS in a handful locations, by a couple of metres in each case, but said he had not visited the sites himself. Initial searches of satellite photographs have not produced images in enough detail to independently confirm the UN allegations."

0

Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

Syrian regime source, consider the motivation

0

J.R.T.

6 months ago

https://nziv.net/110947/ Report: Israel is considering establishing a security zone in Syria and flanking Hezbollah from the east to streamline the land blockade

Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

wouldn't make sense whatsoever

0

J.R.T.

6 months ago

https://nziv.net/110947/ Report: Israel is considering establishing a security zone in Syria and flanking Hezbollah from the east to streamline the land blockade

Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

The new road is in the Israeli Golan

0

J.R.T.

6 months ago

The next move is the creation of a buffer zone inside Syria.

Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

My grandmother heard this from Mohammed al Houthi himself.

0

denizz

6 months ago

Iranian sources to Sky News Arabia: #Iran postpones implementation of Operation "True Promise 3" against #Israel after #Trump's victory x.com/skynewsarabia/status/1856656279936413768

Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

Iranian sources to Sky News Arabia: #Iran postpones implementation of Operation "True Promise 3" against #Israel after #Trump's victory x.com/skynewsarabia/status/1856656279936413768

1

U.S. arms embargo on Israel in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

On the merits, this market should be a yes already. In practice, there will be a lot of pushback. Some further reporting on the D9 embargo would be nice.

0

denizz

6 months ago

"We write once again to protest your administration's partial arms embargo against Israel. The actions of the Biden-Harris administration run counter to our long history of robust military cooperation with Israel and cast doubt upon the reliability of the United States as a long-term security partner. Your actions also violate the will of Congress as expressed in the recent supplemental that funded emergency military support to Israel." Letter signed by every GOP senator except Rand Paul

U.S. arms embargo on Israel in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

The US embargoes on 2,000 lb. bombs and heavy bulldozers remain active.

0

denizz

6 months ago

"We write once again to protest your administration's partial arms embargo against Israel. The actions of the Biden-Harris administration run counter to our long history of robust military cooperation with Israel and cast doubt upon the reliability of the United States as a long-term security partner. Your actions also violate the will of Congress as expressed in the recent supplemental that funded emergency military support to Israel." Letter signed by every GOP senator except Rand Paul

U.S. arms embargo on Israel in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

"We write once again to protest your administration's partial arms embargo against Israel. The actions of the Biden-Harris administration run counter to our long history of robust military cooperation with Israel and cast doubt upon the reliability of the United States as a long-term security partner. Your actions also violate the will of Congress as expressed in the recent supplemental that funded emergency military support to Israel." Letter signed by every GOP senator except Rand Paul

0

U.S. arms embargo on Israel in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

"D9 bulldozer shipment stalled by US partial arms embargo, posing a serious danger to Israeli soldiers." Mark Dubowitz, Foundation for Defense of Democracies

1

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

6 months ago

I'll probably still be buying later on if you need time to come up with some cash

0

Car

6 months ago

crazy how they were asked to leave 14 days ago and still nothing happened.

Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

Hamas lost and they're negotiating as if they didn't. Hezbollah lost and they're negotiating accordingly. So a deal is likely in the nearish future.

2

denizz

6 months ago

"There is no agreement at the moment. We think that deal is coming together, but like anything nothing is done until it's done," a U.S. official said.

Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

"There is no agreement at the moment. We think that deal is coming together, but like anything nothing is done until it's done," a U.S. official said.

2

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

6 months ago

Guys the politically correct term is intellectually disabled

0

U.S. arms embargo on Israel in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

"These bulldozers are primarily used for flattening structures in the Gaza Strip, which has led to significant criticism in the U.S. Under intense pressure, the Biden administration has frozen deliveries for several months."

0

denizz

6 months ago

"A partial U.S. arms embargo on Israel has led to 134 D9 bulldozers that Israel has already paid for awaiting U.S. State Department approval to be exported." https://www.jns.org/us-bulldozer-shipments-to-israel-stalled/

U.S. arms embargo on Israel in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

"A partial U.S. arms embargo on Israel has led to 134 D9 bulldozers that Israel has already paid for awaiting U.S. State Department approval to be exported." https://www.jns.org/us-bulldozer-shipments-to-israel-stalled/

0

U.S. arms embargo on Israel in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

Rules: An arms embargo is defined as a formal U.S. government action that prohibits or restricts the sale, transfer, or delivery of military weapons or defense equipment to Israel or an official announcement from the U.S. government announcing an embargo. A limited embargo, restricting only certain categories of military equipment, will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

0

Goatonso

6 months ago

Lol you really think delaying a sale classifies as an embargo? Good luck making that case

U.S. arms embargo on Israel in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

This was also called a partial embargo by the foundation for defense of democracies, for example

0

Goatonso

6 months ago

Lol you really think delaying a sale classifies as an embargo? Good luck making that case

U.S. arms embargo on Israel in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

Ynet is yediot aharonot, one of the top Israeli newspapers. It is not the New York Times but it is a credible source

0

Goatonso

6 months ago

Lol you really think delaying a sale classifies as an embargo? Good luck making that case

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

6 months ago

New day, same cast of characters

0

Aquati

6 months ago

Qatar denies expelling Hamas despite Biden administration claims - https://jewishinsider.com/2024/11/qatar-expelling-hamas-denial-biden-administration/

U.S. arms embargo on Israel in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

The definition of embargo that matters here is the one specified by the rules. It is expansive and has nothing intrinsically to do with sanctions law. If you have an argument for why it doesn't fit the definition of embargo specified by the rules, I am all ears.

0

Goatonso

6 months ago

Lol you really think delaying a sale classifies as an embargo? Good luck making that case

U.S. arms embargo on Israel in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

Credible report: " The partial U.S. arms embargo on Israel is affecting the battlefield in Gaza and Lebanon and could pose a risk to IDF soldiers." "While the administration has significantly increased aid by billions of dollars, ... they're still giving us a 'penalty' in the form of these embargoes," https://www.ynetnews.com/article/ryn9yycz1g

0

Goatonso

6 months ago

Lol you really think delaying a sale classifies as an embargo? Good luck making that case

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

6 months ago

This is just another article on the same Qatari statement. Note that the market is about expelling Khaled Mashal, not every single person at the Hamas political office.

0

Aquati

6 months ago

Qatar denies expelling Hamas despite Biden administration claims - https://jewishinsider.com/2024/11/qatar-expelling-hamas-denial-biden-administration/

U.S. arms embargo on Israel in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

The facts support it. For starters, Israel received 14,000 2,000 lb. bombs from October to April, and a big fat 0 thereafter. Plenty of reporting indicating why that was (US judged that Israel was misusing the bombs) and the mechanics of it. It's incontrovertible that there was a political decision to deny more 2,000 lb bombs that remains in force.

0

Goatonso

6 months ago

Lol you really think delaying a sale classifies as an embargo? Good luck making that case

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

6 months ago

He can go to Turkey, for example, like in April

0

Car

6 months ago

Probably an attempt to pressure them to accept a ceasefire. They have been there since 2012. When they are forced to leave, a potential ceasefire will be even harder to achieve.

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

6 months ago

*resolved

0

Car

6 months ago

Probably an attempt to pressure them to accept a ceasefire. They have been there since 2012. When they are forced to leave, a potential ceasefire will be even harder to achieve.

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

6 months ago

If this market had been in April it would have resigned based on this. Hamas leaders were expelled for a period of time. Announcement is not required

0

Car

6 months ago

Probably an attempt to pressure them to accept a ceasefire. They have been there since 2012. When they are forced to leave, a potential ceasefire will be even harder to achieve.

Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

Plus I am not sure the road itself crosses the dmz border

0

Shmultz

6 months ago

https://apnews.com/article/mideast-israel-syria-alpha-line-construction-6f1bf012a39f721ab36f33f1c6bea2b6

Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

The rules do not say anything about the dmz unfortunately and i suppose it does not count

0

Shmultz

6 months ago

https://apnews.com/article/mideast-israel-syria-alpha-line-construction-6f1bf012a39f721ab36f33f1c6bea2b6

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

6 months ago

https://www.timesofisrael.com/qatar-briefly-kicked-out-hamas-leaders-as-hostage-talks-stalled-in-april-officials/

0

Car

6 months ago

Probably an attempt to pressure them to accept a ceasefire. They have been there since 2012. When they are forced to leave, a potential ceasefire will be even harder to achieve.

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

6 months ago

They're not closing the office, per the Qatari statement. Need to keep the door open for further Qatari mediation.

0

Car

6 months ago

Denizz, are you retarded?

Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

He actually said no ceasefire IF blah blah blah

0

Excellency

6 months ago

The new Defense Minister says there will be no ceasefire with Hezbollah. https://x.com/alhadath/status/1856044728946483392?s=46

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

6 months ago

He and the other top leadership are getting evicted probably

0

Car

6 months ago

Denizz, are you retarded?

Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/israel-s-military-is-building-along-un-patrolled-demilitarized-zone-in-syria-satellite-images-show/ar-AA1tTdaw

0

denizz

6 months ago

Israel's military is building along UN-patrolled demilitarized zone in Syria, satellite images show

Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

Israel's military is building along UN-patrolled demilitarized zone in Syria, satellite images show

0

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

denizz

6 months ago

Qatar denied that the Hamas political office will close outright. This market is about the domicile of Khaled Mashal, tho.

0

Car

6 months ago

Denizz, are you retarded?

U.S. arms embargo on Israel in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

" The partial U.S. arms embargo on Israel is affecting the battlefield in Gaza and Lebanon and could pose a risk to IDF soldiers." "While the administration has significantly increased aid by billions of dollars, ... they're still giving us a 'penalty' in the form of these embargoes,"

0

dwhnx

6 months ago

There is an ambergo on d9! This needs to be a yes. https://www.ynetnews.com/article/ryn9yycz1g

U.S. arms embargo on Israel in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

The reason that we have a credible news source and an Israeli insider using the term embargo for these restrictions is because they are just that.

0

denizz

6 months ago

The US is embargoing 2,000 lb. bombs and heavy bulldozers, so this should presumably resolve to yes. However, the rules are poorly written, as usual.

U.S. arms embargo on Israel in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

I believe the intent of this market ("U.S. arms embargo on Israel in 2024?") is for any partial embargo active during the market period to trigger a yes. From the bulldozer article " The partial U.S. arms embargo on Israel is affecting the battlefield in Gaza and Lebanon and could pose a risk to IDF soldiers." "While the administration has significantly increased aid by billions of dollars, ... they're still giving us a 'penalty' in the form of these embargoes,"

0

denizz

6 months ago

The US is embargoing 2,000 lb. bombs and heavy bulldozers, so this should presumably resolve to yes. However, the rules are poorly written, as usual.

U.S. arms embargo on Israel in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

I may once I feel ready to argue the point formally.

0

denizz

6 months ago

The US is embargoing 2,000 lb. bombs and heavy bulldozers, so this should presumably resolve to yes. However, the rules are poorly written, as usual.

U.S. arms embargo on Israel in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

US will sell 2,000 lb bombs and bulldozers to any buyer in good standing. B2 bombers and GBU-57s have never been exported.

0

denizz

6 months ago

The US is embargoing 2,000 lb. bombs and heavy bulldozers, so this should presumably resolve to yes. However, the rules are poorly written, as usual.

U.S. arms embargo on Israel in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

(And there is reporting to that effect)

0

denizz

6 months ago

The US is embargoing 2,000 lb. bombs and heavy bulldozers, so this should presumably resolve to yes. However, the rules are poorly written, as usual.

U.S. arms embargo on Israel in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

Market can be resolved based on consensus of cred reporting. Also, while I believe it's true that the US hasn't publicly announced any embargo, the freeze on the MK84 bomb shipment was confirmed by US officials to the press https://www.timesofisrael.com/us-confirms-holding-up-sale-of-heavy-bombs-it-feared-israel-would-use-in-rafah/. The freeze on the MK84 shipment that was confirmed has clearly become a de facto embargo on this kind of weapon.

0

denizz

6 months ago

The US is embargoing 2,000 lb. bombs and heavy bulldozers, so this should presumably resolve to yes. However, the rules are poorly written, as usual.

U.S. arms embargo on Israel in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

The rules are written pretty expansively as to what would count as an embargo.

0

denizz

6 months ago

The US is embargoing 2,000 lb. bombs and heavy bulldozers, so this should presumably resolve to yes. However, the rules are poorly written, as usual.

U.S. arms embargo on Israel in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

The US is embargoing 2,000 lb. bombs and heavy bulldozers, so this should presumably resolve to yes. However, the rules are poorly written, as usual.

1

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

He doesn't share fake news but his tendency not to cite sources properly is super annoying (and unethical)

0

LolInvest

6 months ago

Confirmed by US official according to the creator of this market (OSINTdefender)!

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oVt4VEZaj-0 https://www.alghad.tv/%D8%A3%D9%85%D9%8A%D8%B1%D9%83%D8%A7-%D9%88%D8%A8%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%B7%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%8A%D8%A7-%D8%AA%D8%B4%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%86-%D9%87%D8%AC%D9%85%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%89-%D8%B5%D9%86%D8%B9%D8%A7/ https://x.com/AlHadath/status/1855350218545356941

0

denizz

6 months ago

Some sources on Saturday's American air raids around Sana'a: https://fb.watch/vLPBDCoRz8/ https://x.com/AlHadath/status/1855351286150922450 https://www.almashhadnews.com/295294 https://en.muraselon.com/2024/11/breaking-us-warplanes-bomb-the-yemeni-capital-sanaa/ https://www.skynewsarabia.com/middle-east/1753921-%D8%BA%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D9%85%D8%B9%D8%B3%D9%83%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D9%88%D9%85%D8%AE%D8%A7%D8%B2%D9%86-%D8%A7%D9%94%D8%B3%D9%84%D8%AD%D8%A9-%D8%B5%D9%86%D8%B9%D8%A7%D8%A1

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

Some sources on Saturday's American air raids around Sana'a: https://fb.watch/vLPBDCoRz8/ https://x.com/AlHadath/status/1855351286150922450 https://www.almashhadnews.com/295294 https://en.muraselon.com/2024/11/breaking-us-warplanes-bomb-the-yemeni-capital-sanaa/ https://www.skynewsarabia.com/middle-east/1753921-%D8%BA%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D9%85%D8%B9%D8%B3%D9%83%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D9%88%D9%85%D8%AE%D8%A7%D8%B2%D9%86-%D8%A7%D9%94%D8%B3%D9%84%D8%AD%D8%A9-%D8%B5%D9%86%D8%B9%D8%A7%D8%A1

0

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

Saturday's American airstrikes on Sana'a are confirmed by video evidence, both governments of Yemen, and numerous media accounts. They were the top story on the Saudi news on Saturday evening. Additionally, Al Hadath is backing the multiple Houthi reports of air raids from earlier this week.

0

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

Saturday's airstrikes in Sanaa are confirmed. GG https://fb.watch/vLPBDCoRz8/

0

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

Woof

0

Car

6 months ago

Meow

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

https://discord.com/channels/718590743446290492/1304795599882817586

0

Aquati

6 months ago

Where i can see when it will be the dispute resolved?

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

Al Hadath and Al Ain, etc. are international media.

0

Libitum

6 months ago

Tricky situation. There is 0 information in international media (thus no consensus of credible media). But UMA has resolved in the past according to whales holdings rather than truth. This might be one of those cases.

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

Consensus of credible reporting suffices, which we have for the October 24-25 air raid.

0

tsybka

6 months ago

This should be reported by CENTCOM, not by Houthi media.

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

The thread has 3 yes and 3 too early so far.

0

TheGuro

6 months ago

We need America to confirm the attack in order to resolve?

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

It means there's going to be an arbitration vote on whether this should resolve to yes based on past events or keep going.

1

GeneralBohne

6 months ago

What does this "Disputed" and "Outcome proposal" mean below the Rules?

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

Notable Yemeni social media posts: https://x.com/alhudhaifi/status/1849553777306763393 (The author claims to be a journalist for the major Saudi channel Al Ekhbariya) x.com/almarsa_ye/status/1849558821099770326 ("A journalistic platform centered on the Yemeni people, keeping up with events in Yemen in general and Al Hudaydah Governorate in particular, and concerned with confronting extremist and hate speech.") https://x.com/IbrahimAsqin/status/1849569177129947468

0

denizz

6 months ago

There have been 6 American air raids since Oct. 22, per Yemeni media. There is now a consensus of credible reporting regarding the air raid from the night of October 24-25. There are 5+ original, independent reports of this air raid (in particular not tracing to Houthi government statements). It should be emphasized that these come from both pro- and anti-Houthi media. We have reports from Al Hadath (Al Arabiya) and Al Ain, which are both first-tier Arabic language sources, from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project, as well as several lesser sources. I'm posting these below with translations.

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

Additional Yemeni media reports: https://www.marebpress.net/news_details.php?lng=arabic&sid=207084 https://www.4may.net/news/125846

0

denizz

6 months ago

There have been 6 American air raids since Oct. 22, per Yemeni media. There is now a consensus of credible reporting regarding the air raid from the night of October 24-25. There are 5+ original, independent reports of this air raid (in particular not tracing to Houthi government statements). It should be emphasized that these come from both pro- and anti-Houthi media. We have reports from Al Hadath (Al Arabiya) and Al Ain, which are both first-tier Arabic language sources, from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project, as well as several lesser sources. I'm posting these below with translations.

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

Other original media reports, Yemeni: "Warplanes launched a series of airstrikes at dawn today on sites and gatherings of the Houthi militia in Al Hudaydah Governorate, western Yemen. The eight raids targeted the areas of "Al Jah" in Bayt Al Faqih District and "Al Tur" in At Tuhayat District, destroying the targeted sites, according to field sources." https://adennews.net/155133 "Local sources in #Hodeidah: Targeting Houthi sites in the areas of "Al-Jah and Al-Tur" in the districts of Bayt Al-Faqih and Al-Tuhayta with 8 #airstrikes" https://x.com/khabaragency/status/1849551051730362674

0

denizz

6 months ago

There have been 6 American air raids since Oct. 22, per Yemeni media. There is now a consensus of credible reporting regarding the air raid from the night of October 24-25. There are 5+ original, independent reports of this air raid (in particular not tracing to Houthi government statements). It should be emphasized that these come from both pro- and anti-Houthi media. We have reports from Al Hadath (Al Arabiya) and Al Ain, which are both first-tier Arabic language sources, from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project, as well as several lesser sources. I'm posting these below with translations.

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

Sputnik (Russian state, pro-Houthi): "Last Friday, American and British fighter jets carried out 6 raids on Ansar Allah sites, including a farm in the Al-Jah area in the Bayt Al-Faqih district (southeast of Hodeidah), according to what a source in the local authority in Hodeidah Governorate told Sputnik at the time." https://sarabic.ae/20241031/%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%8A%D9%85%D9%86-%D8%A3%D9%86%D8%B5%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%84%D9%87-%D8%AA%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%86-%D8%AA%D9%86%D9%81%D9%8A%D8%B0-%D8%A3%D9%85%D8%B1%D9%8A%D9%83%D8%A7-%D9%88%D8%A8%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%B7%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%8A%D8%A7-%D9%82%D8%B5%D9%81%D8%A7-%D8%AC%D9%88%D9%8A%D8%A7-%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%89-%D9%85%D9%86%D8%A7%D8%B7%D9%82-%D8%B3%D9%8A%D8%B7%D8%B1%D8%AA%D9%87%D8%A7-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AD%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%AF%D8%A9-1094338405.html

0

denizz

6 months ago

There have been 6 American air raids since Oct. 22, per Yemeni media. There is now a consensus of credible reporting regarding the air raid from the night of October 24-25. There are 5+ original, independent reports of this air raid (in particular not tracing to Houthi government statements). It should be emphasized that these come from both pro- and anti-Houthi media. We have reports from Al Hadath (Al Arabiya) and Al Ain, which are both first-tier Arabic language sources, from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project, as well as several lesser sources. I'm posting these below with translations.

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

Al Hadath (breaking news division of Al Arabiya, the main Saudi state channel): "Sources reported to Al-Hadath that a series of airstrikes targeted the Al-Jah Al-Asfal area in the Beit Al-Faqih district, south of Al-Hodeidah. The sources added that the airstrikes hit Houthi sites that included operations rooms and drone launch sites east of Al-Safariya, north of Al-Jah." Video: https://x.com/AlHadath/status/1849578146221228393

0

denizz

6 months ago

There have been 6 American air raids since Oct. 22, per Yemeni media. There is now a consensus of credible reporting regarding the air raid from the night of October 24-25. There are 5+ original, independent reports of this air raid (in particular not tracing to Houthi government statements). It should be emphasized that these come from both pro- and anti-Houthi media. We have reports from Al Hadath (Al Arabiya) and Al Ain, which are both first-tier Arabic language sources, from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project, as well as several lesser sources. I'm posting these below with translations.

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED: "On 25 October 2024, suspected US forces (unclear whether warship or aircraft unspecified) conducted 8 strikes targeting Houthi military sites in Al Jah (Bayt Al Faqiah) and At Tawr area in At Tuhayta district (coded to Al Jah) (Bayt Al Faqiah, Al Hudaydah). Casualties unknown. CENTCOM claimed responsibility without specifying exact date or location."

0

denizz

6 months ago

There have been 6 American air raids since Oct. 22, per Yemeni media. There is now a consensus of credible reporting regarding the air raid from the night of October 24-25. There are 5+ original, independent reports of this air raid (in particular not tracing to Houthi government statements). It should be emphasized that these come from both pro- and anti-Houthi media. We have reports from Al Hadath (Al Arabiya) and Al Ain, which are both first-tier Arabic language sources, from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project, as well as several lesser sources. I'm posting these below with translations.

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

Al Ain (Abu Dhabi, major newspaper under same management as The National and Sky News Arabia): "Local sources had previously informed Al-Ain Al-Akhbariya that the US Navy had bombed Houthi sites in the coastal Al-Jah area, south of Hodeidah, on Thursday evening. The sources said that the bombing targeted tunnels to hide missiles and drones that the militias dug on palm farms" https://al-ain.com/article/houthi-militias-armed-militia

0

denizz

6 months ago

There have been 6 American air raids since Oct. 22, per Yemeni media. There is now a consensus of credible reporting regarding the air raid from the night of October 24-25. There are 5+ original, independent reports of this air raid (in particular not tracing to Houthi government statements). It should be emphasized that these come from both pro- and anti-Houthi media. We have reports from Al Hadath (Al Arabiya) and Al Ain, which are both first-tier Arabic language sources, from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project, as well as several lesser sources. I'm posting these below with translations.

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

There have been 6 American air raids since Oct. 22, per Yemeni media. There is now a consensus of credible reporting regarding the air raid from the night of October 24-25. There are 5+ original, independent reports of this air raid (in particular not tracing to Houthi government statements). It should be emphasized that these come from both pro- and anti-Houthi media. We have reports from Al Hadath (Al Arabiya) and Al Ain, which are both first-tier Arabic language sources, from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project, as well as several lesser sources. I'm posting these below with translations.

0

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

There were at least 6 unclaimed American air raids between September 1 and October 22, according to the ACLED data.

0

denizz

6 months ago

For those wondering if the US really does airstrikes on the Houthis without claiming them, here's a clear-cut exampe: "On 23 May 2024, suspected US forces conducted strikes on Houthi forces in the house of former Vice President Ali Mohsen Al Ahmar in Al Hudaydah - Shari ad Durayhimi (Al Hawak) and in the house of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh killing and injuring between 7 and 10 Houthi fighters. Fatalities coded as 3 (conservative half of 7) and split between 2 locations. Sources claimed that the buildings housed Houthi leaders and military experts." Houthis conducted military funerals as a result of these strikes: https://www.skynewsarabia.com/middle-east/1716862-%D8%AC%D9%85%D8%A7%D8%B9%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AD%D9%88%D8%AB%D9%8A-%D8%AA%D9%82%D8%B1-%D8%A8%D9%85%D9%82%D8%AA%D9%84-%D8%B6%D8%A7%D8%A8%D8%B7-%D9%82%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%AA%D9%87%D8%A7-%D9%85%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%AC%D9%87%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AA%D8%AD%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%81 https://www.skynewsarabia.com/video/1716466-%D9%85%D9%82%D8%AA%D9%84-%D9%82%D8%A7%D8%AF%D8%A9-%D8%AD%D9%88%D8%AB%D9%8A%D9%8A%D9%86-%D9%82%D8%B5%D9%81-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AD%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%AF%D8%A9

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

For those wondering if the US really does airstrikes on the Houthis without claiming them, here's a clear-cut exampe: "On 23 May 2024, suspected US forces conducted strikes on Houthi forces in the house of former Vice President Ali Mohsen Al Ahmar in Al Hudaydah - Shari ad Durayhimi (Al Hawak) and in the house of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh killing and injuring between 7 and 10 Houthi fighters. Fatalities coded as 3 (conservative half of 7) and split between 2 locations. Sources claimed that the buildings housed Houthi leaders and military experts." Houthis conducted military funerals as a result of these strikes: https://www.skynewsarabia.com/middle-east/1716862-%D8%AC%D9%85%D8%A7%D8%B9%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AD%D9%88%D8%AB%D9%8A-%D8%AA%D9%82%D8%B1-%D8%A8%D9%85%D9%82%D8%AA%D9%84-%D8%B6%D8%A7%D8%A8%D8%B7-%D9%82%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%AA%D9%87%D8%A7-%D9%85%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%AC%D9%87%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AA%D8%AD%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%81 https://www.skynewsarabia.com/video/1716466-%D9%85%D9%82%D8%AA%D9%84-%D9%82%D8%A7%D8%AF%D8%A9-%D8%AD%D9%88%D8%AB%D9%8A%D9%8A%D9%86-%D9%82%D8%B5%D9%81-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AD%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%AF%D8%A9

0

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

Media sources affiliated with the Houthi militia reported that an American MQ-9 drone was shot down in Al-Jawf Governorate, northeast of the occupied capital, Sana'a. Video clips circulated on social media platforms showed what was said to be the moment the plane was shot down, and its burning wreckage after it fell to the ground. The US military said it was investigating the incident, refusing to provide further details, following the circulation of video clips showing what appeared to be a drone catching fire and falling in Al-Jawf Governorate.

0

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

Al Hadath (Al Arabiya) and Al Ain are both first tier Arabic language sources. Plus there are several lesser sources.

0

FelipeG

6 months ago

What's the nuance here, if the US has already conducted military operations in Yemen? Why isn't this 100% "yes"?

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

You're wrong that it is a single source. Maybe you're thinking of the Oct 23 alleged air raid. There are at least 5 original reports of the Oct 24/25 air raid, all independent of Houthi media.

0

FelipeG

6 months ago

What's the nuance here, if the US has already conducted military operations in Yemen? Why isn't this 100% "yes"?

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

There were about 5 air raids since Oct. 22 per Yemeni media. We need either the US to claim responsibility or to have credible reporting consensus for at least one. There isn't that much reporting from Yemen. However, there is a consensus of credible reporting about the air raid of Oct 24/25. Thus this market should resolve to yes already, but the chances that UMA will vote yes based on current reporting are not 100%.

0

FelipeG

6 months ago

What's the nuance here, if the US has already conducted military operations in Yemen? Why isn't this 100% "yes"?

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

Thanks. There is enough info available about the Oct 24/25 air raid to resolve this to yes IMO. I'm just waiting for the next CENTCOM statement to see if they claim anything, before going the consensus of cred reporting route.

0

UndefeatedElectionForecaster

6 months ago

well I got out at i think a fair price, good luck to denis! Pretty funny that they have almost certainly struck Yemen by now but nobody credible cares enough to report it

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

Don't worry about me. I recommend caution when it comes to MidEast markets since you seem to be new to that.

1

numberone

6 months ago

definitely 'no'. Now with Trump in the office a lot of US forces will be retrieved form that zone. Until Trump is in charge, Joe will do pretty much 0 and no real attack will be coordinated. Take the FREE money option as long as it's available. Less than 2 months to go.

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

"the first couple of days and weeks where Trump took office we can see a clear decrease in attacks and activity in the middle east." factually inaccurate

0

numberone

6 months ago

definitely 'no'. Now with Trump in the office a lot of US forces will be retrieved form that zone. Until Trump is in charge, Joe will do pretty much 0 and no real attack will be coordinated. Take the FREE money option as long as it's available. Less than 2 months to go.

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/jun/06/us-syria-iraq-isis-islamic-state-strikes-death-toll

0

numberone

6 months ago

definitely 'no'. Now with Trump in the office a lot of US forces will be retrieved form that zone. Until Trump is in charge, Joe will do pretty much 0 and no real attack will be coordinated. Take the FREE money option as long as it's available. Less than 2 months to go.

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

There were already about 5 air raids since Oct 22 and they're going to continue until the Houthis stop bombing shipping, which will happen only when there is a Gaza ceasefire.

0

numberone

6 months ago

definitely 'no'. Now with Trump in the office a lot of US forces will be retrieved form that zone. Until Trump is in charge, Joe will do pretty much 0 and no real attack will be coordinated. Take the FREE money option as long as it's available. Less than 2 months to go.

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

Fifth alleged air raid since Oct. 22: "On 30 October 2024, suspected US forces conducted 2 strikes targeting Houthi military sites in Al Hudaydah - Al Hudaydah International Airport (Al Hawak, Al Hudaydah). Casualties unknown. CENTCOM did not claim the attack."

0

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

More details on the airstrikes of Oct 24/25 from Al Ain (Abu Dhabi): "Local sources had previously informed Al-Ain Al-Akhbariya that the US Navy had bombed Houthi sites in the coastal Al-Jah area, south of Hodeidah, on Thursday evening. The sources said that the bombing targeted tunnels to hide missiles and drones that the militias dug on palm farms" https://al-ain.com/article/houthi-militias-armed-militia

0

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

This is an earlier version of that 4may report that doesn't have the problematic photo: https://adennews.net/155133

0

denizz

6 months ago

By the way, there were American airstrikes overnight Oct 24/25, south coast of Hodeidah. (First I heard about it was this week.) There is consensus of credible reporting, I'll propose resolution when I get a chance. https://x.com/AlHadath/status/1849578146221228393

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

which?

0

denizz

6 months ago

By the way, there were American airstrikes overnight Oct 24/25, south coast of Hodeidah. (First I heard about it was this week.) There is consensus of credible reporting, I'll propose resolution when I get a chance. https://x.com/AlHadath/status/1849578146221228393

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

csb

0

Shekel

6 months ago

denizz, it is not too late, sell your turks before Thanksgiving and let your granny stay in her flat 🤗

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

why are you selling no?

0

Shekel

6 months ago

denizz, it is not too late, sell your turks before Thanksgiving and let your granny stay in her flat 🤗

Iowa Presidential Election Winner

denizz

6 months ago

It's possible... consider Indiana in 2008.

0

yourrapist1776

6 months ago

The popular vote is tied but Iowa moved 13 points to the left

Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

"Attacks on Israel by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market."

6

IsraelGuy

6 months ago

Take notice that according to the rules, the market will resolve even if Iran will use proxies, as long as they take responsibility for the attack.

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

There are at least 5 independent reports on the airstrikes from the night of Oct 24/25, which I posted in my previous comment thread. These include pro-Houthi and anti-Houthi outlets, as well as foreign and domestic outlets. This is a consensus of credible reporting. However, I am holding off proposing yes for a short while because doing so might lead to a dispute. If the US claims any recent activity, that would obviously avoid the issue entirely.

1

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

Sure, we'll see what happens if it comes down to a dispute.

0

denizz

6 months ago

By the way, there were American airstrikes overnight Oct 24/25, south coast of Hodeidah. (First I heard about it was this week.) There is consensus of credible reporting, I'll propose resolution when I get a chance. https://x.com/AlHadath/status/1849578146221228393

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

(Airstrikes in Yemen aren't as big news as one might think.)

0

denizz

6 months ago

By the way, there were American airstrikes overnight Oct 24/25, south coast of Hodeidah. (First I heard about it was this week.) There is consensus of credible reporting, I'll propose resolution when I get a chance. https://x.com/AlHadath/status/1849578146221228393

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

I tend to think it would have been brought up in the chat like the others if there was much awareness. I only found out when I pulled the ACLED data and it was quite a chore to chase down the confirmatory sources.

0

denizz

6 months ago

By the way, there were American airstrikes overnight Oct 24/25, south coast of Hodeidah. (First I heard about it was this week.) There is consensus of credible reporting, I'll propose resolution when I get a chance. https://x.com/AlHadath/status/1849578146221228393

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

As far as the price being only 90, the 3 alleged air raids previously discussed in the chat all have not enough sourcing to resolve on.

0

denizz

6 months ago

By the way, there were American airstrikes overnight Oct 24/25, south coast of Hodeidah. (First I heard about it was this week.) There is consensus of credible reporting, I'll propose resolution when I get a chance. https://x.com/AlHadath/status/1849578146221228393

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

I think ultimately this is a consensus of credible reporting. I may give it the weekend to see if CENTCOM puts out their bulletin finally but they are spotty about it.

0

denizz

6 months ago

By the way, there were American airstrikes overnight Oct 24/25, south coast of Hodeidah. (First I heard about it was this week.) There is consensus of credible reporting, I'll propose resolution when I get a chance. https://x.com/AlHadath/status/1849578146221228393

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

I was arguing your points for the benefit of anyone reading. A press release from CENTCOM would be nice but it's not necessary here.

0

denizz

6 months ago

By the way, there were American airstrikes overnight Oct 24/25, south coast of Hodeidah. (First I heard about it was this week.) There is consensus of credible reporting, I'll propose resolution when I get a chance. https://x.com/AlHadath/status/1849578146221228393

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

Unless we're allowing the posibility of aliens here, it would have to be Operation Prosperity Guardian. Saudi Arabia hasn't done air raids since the truce 2 years ago. We have multiple sources positing American.

0

denizz

6 months ago

By the way, there were American airstrikes overnight Oct 24/25, south coast of Hodeidah. (First I heard about it was this week.) There is consensus of credible reporting, I'll propose resolution when I get a chance. https://x.com/AlHadath/status/1849578146221228393

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

That is untrue. Consensus refers to having a critical mass of (credible) reporting. It doesn't have to include governmental sources. We have pro-Houthi and anti-Houthi sources here tho.

0

denizz

6 months ago

By the way, there were American airstrikes overnight Oct 24/25, south coast of Hodeidah. (First I heard about it was this week.) There is consensus of credible reporting, I'll propose resolution when I get a chance. https://x.com/AlHadath/status/1849578146221228393

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

It specifies "credible reporting" not "credible Western reporting". ACLED is Western, however. We have pro-Houthi and anti-Houthi reporting, as well as foreign and domestic sources. We have at least the five independent sources that I listed.

0

denizz

6 months ago

By the way, there were American airstrikes overnight Oct 24/25, south coast of Hodeidah. (First I heard about it was this week.) There is consensus of credible reporting, I'll propose resolution when I get a chance. https://x.com/AlHadath/status/1849578146221228393

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

" Last Friday, American and British fighter jets carried out 6 raids on Ansar Allah sites, including a farm in the Al-Jah area in the Bayt Al-Faqih district (southeast of Hodeidah), according to what a source in the local authority in Hodeidah Governorate told Sputnik at the time." https://sarabic.ae/20241031/%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%8A%D9%85%D9%86-%D8%A3%D9%86%D8%B5%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%84%D9%87-%D8%AA%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%86-%D8%AA%D9%86%D9%81%D9%8A%D8%B0-%D8%A3%D9%85%D8%B1%D9%8A%D9%83%D8%A7-%D9%88%D8%A8%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%B7%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%8A%D8%A7-%D9%82%D8%B5%D9%81%D8%A7-%D8%AC%D9%88%D9%8A%D8%A7-%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%89-%D9%85%D9%86%D8%A7%D8%B7%D9%82-%D8%B3%D9%8A%D8%B7%D8%B1%D8%AA%D9%87%D8%A7-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AD%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%AF%D8%A9-1094338405.html

0

denizz

6 months ago

By the way, there were American airstrikes overnight Oct 24/25, south coast of Hodeidah. (First I heard about it was this week.) There is consensus of credible reporting, I'll propose resolution when I get a chance. https://x.com/AlHadath/status/1849578146221228393

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

I'm not responding to you yet, just listing sources in the thread.

0

denizz

6 months ago

By the way, there were American airstrikes overnight Oct 24/25, south coast of Hodeidah. (First I heard about it was this week.) There is consensus of credible reporting, I'll propose resolution when I get a chance. https://x.com/AlHadath/status/1849578146221228393

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

Additional independent Yemeni reports: https://www.4may.net/news/125846 https://x.com/khabaragency/status/1849551051730362674

0

denizz

6 months ago

By the way, there were American airstrikes overnight Oct 24/25, south coast of Hodeidah. (First I heard about it was this week.) There is consensus of credible reporting, I'll propose resolution when I get a chance. https://x.com/AlHadath/status/1849578146221228393

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

"Local sources had previously reported to Al-Ain Al-Akhbariya that the US Navy bombed Houthi sites in the coastal Al-Jah area, south of Hodeidah, on Thursday evening." https://www.aden-tm.net/news/304971

0

denizz

6 months ago

By the way, there were American airstrikes overnight Oct 24/25, south coast of Hodeidah. (First I heard about it was this week.) There is consensus of credible reporting, I'll propose resolution when I get a chance. https://x.com/AlHadath/status/1849578146221228393

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED): "On 25 October 2024, suspected US forces (unclear whether warship or aircraft unspecified) conducted 8 strikes targeting Houthi military sites in Al Jah (Bayt Al Faqiah) and At Tawr area in At Tuhayta district (coded to Al Jah) (Bayt Al Faqiah, Al Hudaydah). Casualties unknown. US forces did not claim the strikes."

0

denizz

6 months ago

By the way, there were American airstrikes overnight Oct 24/25, south coast of Hodeidah. (First I heard about it was this week.) There is consensus of credible reporting, I'll propose resolution when I get a chance. https://x.com/AlHadath/status/1849578146221228393

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

Additionally, we've had credible reports of 2 air raids in Hodeidah city and 1 drone strike against Al Qaeda in Hadramaut, but with less weight of reporting.

0

denizz

6 months ago

By the way, there were American airstrikes overnight Oct 24/25, south coast of Hodeidah. (First I heard about it was this week.) There is consensus of credible reporting, I'll propose resolution when I get a chance. https://x.com/AlHadath/status/1849578146221228393

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

By the way, there were American airstrikes overnight Oct 24/25, south coast of Hodeidah. (First I heard about it was this week.) There is consensus of credible reporting, I'll propose resolution when I get a chance. https://x.com/AlHadath/status/1849578146221228393

0

U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

that's because they did

0

DeucePapi

6 months ago

OSIntdefender is now involved w this? Does he know that this place resolved a market Yes saying Israel attacked Iraq last week?

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

SABA didn't report the target

0

Hedged

6 months ago

US attacked last night https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1851849353880596746?s=46

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

What "Yemeni source" is he referring to? There's nothing in Arabic media

0

Hedged

6 months ago

US attacked last night https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1851849353880596746?s=46

Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

smart woman

0

AA42

6 months ago

Honestly so much fun taking money from dumb cnn Americans. Lol.

Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

buy more no

0

AA42

6 months ago

Honestly so much fun taking money from dumb cnn Americans. Lol.

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

We have an increasing number of alleged air strikes but not conclusive proof

0

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

Government of SE Yemen denied

0

denizz

6 months ago

Tribal sources reported on Monday that a drone, believed to be American, targeted a vehicle carrying a number of people at dawn on Monday in Hadramaut Valley, eastern Yemen.

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

https://shafaq.com/en/World/Suspected-US-drone-strike-targets-al-Qaeda-member-in-Yemen-s-Hadhramaut-province

0

denizz

6 months ago

Tribal sources reported on Monday that a drone, believed to be American, targeted a vehicle carrying a number of people at dawn on Monday in Hadramaut Valley, eastern Yemen.

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

https://www.almashhadnews.com/294296

2

denizz

6 months ago

Tribal sources reported on Monday that a drone, believed to be American, targeted a vehicle carrying a number of people at dawn on Monday in Hadramaut Valley, eastern Yemen.

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

Tribal sources reported on Monday that a drone, believed to be American, targeted a vehicle carrying a number of people at dawn on Monday in Hadramaut Valley, eastern Yemen.

1

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

scammer

2

Yeatsy

6 months ago

This is an oppurtunity for generational wealth don’t fumble

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

Nothing got retracted. Especially not the the NYT and WSJ articles. A Fox News article which is barely relevant dropped a reference to Iraq.

2

Pidor🐓

6 months ago

wait can someone link what got retracted? I thought there was a fox news article

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

This market will resolve to Yes per the polymarket clarification. This Fox News edit is not significant. Polymarket will not change the clarification based on this. Be warned.

2

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

Fox News was never an important contributor the market resolving.

1

Car

6 months ago

why did Foxnews remove Iraq?

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

Shaharah might not exactly be "Houthi media" but they are Houthi aligned

0

Aquati

6 months ago

In Iraq market is going to resolve to YES with the same source, but different origin of source. The first one is enough US media to resolve with Iraqui media saying the opposite, while here Yemeni media confirms with different sources and wit pics but with silence in US media, so we can't resolve yet withot CENTCOM (but in Iraq market it did without IDF). That's not makes sense

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

I thought that was all Houthi media. But I removed the previous comment because I don't think we can dismiss these reports just because CENTCOM didn't confirm.

0

Aquati

6 months ago

In Iraq market is going to resolve to YES with the same source, but different origin of source. The first one is enough US media to resolve with Iraqui media saying the opposite, while here Yemeni media confirms with different sources and wit pics but with silence in US media, so we can't resolve yet withot CENTCOM (but in Iraq market it did without IDF). That's not makes sense

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

latest pump and dump just dropped

0

aenews2

6 months ago

Reminder that market will resolve in 46.4 hours, then we'll be able to redeem our shares

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

No holders still have an opportunity to sell for .01

2

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

you can't

1

Dada2024

6 months ago

how we can change that decide!? they literlly dont give us any real proof !

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

still $60 is $60, don't throw it out

0

n/a

6 months ago

Guys, doesn't the last review matter anymore? Maybe it will be rejected, can such a thing happen?

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

No, polymarket stepped in, the vote will be yes 100%. I'm begging you to sell and get $60 back

0

n/a

6 months ago

Guys, doesn't the last review matter anymore? Maybe it will be rejected, can such a thing happen?

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

It was an emergency decision to stop people from burning more money buying no

1

NERA

6 months ago

the weird thing is that they dont even wait for the final review. they wanted to kill it ASAP

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

No, sadly, you should definitely sell for 0.9 cents

0

Karim123

6 months ago

For real is there any hope for no or i go to sleep am really tired i lost big money i just want to know

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

Incorrect, mainly we just have the denial by the Iraqi govt.

0

0xF04FaeB6B086cdaA7Cea354d093Fb8315296A8c4-1729660831863

6 months ago

The claim that Israel attacked anti missile began 5 minutes after the attack in Iran happened. It was originated from hearing explosions in iraqs sky. However, it was later claimed that it was fighter jets breaking the speed of sound. This makes sense because there is no footage of explosions, no images of destroyed sites. The Israeli government did not claim to attack Iraq and the Iraqi government did not claim being attacked. In addition, a fallen part from a missile that was launched at Iran was found in Iraq ground, but obviously this is not Israel attacking Iraq. Where is the proof??

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

consensus of cred reporting NYT https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/10/26/world/israel-iran-lebanon-gaza#heres-how-the-israeli-attack-on-iran-unfolded WSJ https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/how-israel-pulled-off-its-largest-ever-strike-on-iran-689022ca Yediot Aharonot https://www.ynet.co.il/yedioth/article/yokra14127763 Elaph https://elaph.com/Web/News/2024/10/1551668.html Al Jazeera https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/10/26/israel-strikes-iran-what-we-know-so-far-and-whats-next

0

0xF04FaeB6B086cdaA7Cea354d093Fb8315296A8c4-1729660831863

6 months ago

The claim that Israel attacked anti missile began 5 minutes after the attack in Iran happened. It was originated from hearing explosions in iraqs sky. However, it was later claimed that it was fighter jets breaking the speed of sound. This makes sense because there is no footage of explosions, no images of destroyed sites. The Israeli government did not claim to attack Iraq and the Iraqi government did not claim being attacked. In addition, a fallen part from a missile that was launched at Iran was found in Iraq ground, but obviously this is not Israel attacking Iraq. Where is the proof??

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

here NYT https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/10/26/world/israel-iran-lebanon-gaza#heres-how-the-israeli-attack-on-iran-unfolded WSJ https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/how-israel-pulled-off-its-largest-ever-strike-on-iran-689022ca Yediot Aharonot https://www.ynet.co.il/yedioth/article/yokra14127763 Elaph https://elaph.com/Web/News/2024/10/1551668.html Al Jazeera https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/10/26/israel-strikes-iran-what-we-know-so-far-and-whats-next

1

Dada2024

6 months ago

israel do not attack iraq!!! where is the proof???? no israel confrimtion

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

See: NYT https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/10/26/world/israel-iran-lebanon-gaza#heres-how-the-israeli-attack-on-iran-unfolded WSJ https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/how-israel-pulled-off-its-largest-ever-strike-on-iran-689022ca Yediot Aharonot https://www.ynet.co.il/yedioth/article/yokra14127763 Elaph https://elaph.com/Web/News/2024/10/1551668.html Al Jazeera https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/10/26/israel-strikes-iran-what-we-know-so-far-and-whats-next

1

0xB3D7736055eEFC5948890303e6410f755b6f7504-1724163118289

6 months ago

So from my understanding Polymarket can resolve based on fake news lol. Lesson learned today. Any mention from a random journalist is considered the truth.

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

Sources: NYT https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/10/26/world/israel-iran-lebanon-gaza#heres-how-the-israeli-attack-on-iran-unfolded WSJ https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/how-israel-pulled-off-its-largest-ever-strike-on-iran-689022ca Yediot Aharonot https://www.ynet.co.il/yedioth/article/yokra14127763 Elaph https://elaph.com/Web/News/2024/10/1551668.html Al Jazeera https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/10/26/israel-strikes-iran-what-we-know-so-far-and-whats-next

0

n/a

6 months ago

Where is the consensus of credible reporting? Only NYT said Iraq was struck. JP initially said it but now said it was actually across the border in Iran.

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

The failing NYT is fake news

1

luvm3

6 months ago

Means that polymarket is as rigged as mainstream western media fam

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

Explosions were reported in Salah al din province/Tamimi Airbase

0

0xF04FaeB6B086cdaA7Cea354d093Fb8315296A8c4-1729660831863

6 months ago

This is literally insane. You hear multiple fighter jets breaking the sound barrier. Obviously some journalists will post on that. Yet no government announcement. No read images. This is people’s money. Imagine if Israel really attacked in Iraq, it would sound COMPLETELY different.

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

Unironically, they felt bad about people continuing to lose money on no

0

n/a

6 months ago

It actually makes no sense to do this now? Why not wait to when more information is out?

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

NYT https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/10/26/world/israel-iran-lebanon-gaza#heres-how-the-israeli-attack-on-iran-unfolded WSJ https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/how-israel-pulled-off-its-largest-ever-strike-on-iran-689022ca Yediot Aharonot https://www.ynet.co.il/yedioth/article/yokra14127763 Elaph https://elaph.com/Web/News/2024/10/1551668.html Al Jazeera https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/10/26/israel-strikes-iran-what-we-know-so-far-and-whats-next

0

Gerdii

6 months ago

Incredible that consensus of credible reporting is a singular sentence originating from the New York times. No primary sources provided, no satellite imagery, not even a location can be verified. Using scattered sentences from Western sources to verify attacks on iraq is honestly ridiculous. I guess that is the risk you take with the Israeli markets

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

To stop the rampant scamming and cash burning by credulous no buyers

1

Jaytje

6 months ago

Wtf is this announcement 😂😂😂😂😂

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

The explosions heard in Basra are not related to the attack in Iraq. This must be the 3rd time I tried to clarify that to you

0

Kingstonfox

6 months ago

Someone has a link to follow vote on UMA ? No should win, Israel didnt acknowledge any attack + no consensus by the media with al jazheera + jersulalem post + Iraqis officials saying no attack

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

Al Jazeera said there was an attack, JPost didn't run anything of substance. Iraqi official statements are only relevant in so far as they affect the credible reporting consensus, and in this case they rightly haven't

0

Kingstonfox

6 months ago

Someone has a link to follow vote on UMA ? No should win, Israel didnt acknowledge any attack + no consensus by the media with al jazheera + jersulalem post + Iraqis officials saying no attack

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

We have "consensus of credible reporting" there's no need to wait for satellite photos, at least UMA will not.

1

denizz

6 months ago

Reminder that the Israeli attack on Iraq was reported by the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Al Jazeera, Yediot Aharaonot, and Elath.

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

No they didn't -- they reported an Iraqi official denial

0

denizz

6 months ago

Reminder that the Israeli attack on Iraq was reported by the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Al Jazeera, Yediot Aharaonot, and Elath.

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

Iraqi media reported explosions near Al Tamimi Airbase

1

denizz

6 months ago

Reminder that the Israeli attack on Iraq was reported by the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Al Jazeera, Yediot Aharaonot, and Elath.

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

"Israel has attacked Iran, killing four Iranian soldiers. It also launched simultaneous strikes on Iraq and Syria, ostensibly targeting Iran-linked interests." from your link

0

denizz

6 months ago

Reminder that the Israeli attack on Iraq was reported by the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Al Jazeera, Yediot Aharaonot, and Elath.

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

We have consensus of credible reporting

0

denizz

6 months ago

Reminder that the Israeli attack on Iraq was reported by the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Al Jazeera, Yediot Aharaonot, and Elath.

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

To earn $850

1

denizz

6 months ago

Reminder that the Israeli attack on Iraq was reported by the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Al Jazeera, Yediot Aharaonot, and Elath.

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

Reminder that the Israeli attack on Iraq was reported by the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Al Jazeera, Yediot Aharaonot, and Elath.

2

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

On the merits you would have a modest shot at prolonging this market, but idt that's how UMA rolls. There's a reason all the heavy hitters are on Yes here..

1

sorgegorrows

6 months ago

To Yes holders: there is a very heated and robust debate going on in UMA Discord. A strong case can be made for either side. You guys are picking pennies in front of a steamroller by not exiting your Yes positions now.

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

What "storied institution" is denying this? lol

0

Justifax

6 months ago

you're not betting against whales here, you're betting against the WSJ and NYT, two storied institutions with billions of dollars of goodwill based on their credibility.

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

☝️ literal scammer

0

MeisterOd

6 months ago

Statement from the Iraqi government: We have no problems with the Israelis at the moment. They don't have any problems with us either. We are solving our problems at the table with diplomacy. We will normalize as two countries. There is no attack at the moment.

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

I recommend you take 100% profit on that 43k shares instead of 100% loss.

0

NERA

6 months ago

how the hell Iraq will get attacked and hide it loool

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

Explosions were reported and they put out a cover story?

0

NERA

6 months ago

how the hell Iraq will get attacked and hide it loool

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

likely Al Tamimi Airbase

0

NERA

6 months ago

exactly, we know Syria get attacked when and where but Iraq nothing

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

Did you hear from the NYT? The map Ynet ran with this shows Al Tamimi Airbase where the explosion was reported.

0

Justifax

6 months ago

Here's the guy reporting on this, I don't think he's going to retract - https://x.com/ronenbergman/status/1850380890632790183 This should go YES, the only issue now is UMA flakiness.

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

A bunch of outright scamming for no in the comments

2

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

Overwhelming consensus for YES in the UMA Discord

4

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

That wouldn't explain the explostion at Al Tamimi Air Base.

0

0x4444Fc34bd252890cF24a10ce161e2ae9380C4FB-1729774461789

6 months ago

there are reports of iraqi f-16 and turkish f-16 attacking in iraq on the same day, does could have been the explotions making the option of israel attacking in iraq even more unlikely

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

There's nothing notable that supports no attack besides the Iraqi denial

1

0x4444Fc34bd252890cF24a10ce161e2ae9380C4FB-1729774461789

6 months ago

therea re only reports of israeli fighters flying over USA controlled air space in iraq at low alltitudes no attack reports

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

Likely not

0

Leapingfrog

6 months ago

Surely flying in to Iraqi airspace counts as an military action?

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

It likely won't matter that we don't know the exact target. However, note that there were explosions reported by Iraqi media in central Iraq, including at Al Tamimi Air Base.

1

Justifax

6 months ago

Two examples of markets resolved on un-named officials - https://polymarket.com/event/israeli-forces-enters-lebanon-in-september and https://polymarket.com/event/israel-military-action-against-iran-by-friday Neither had officiall confirmation from israel/idf.

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

☝️literal scammer

1

n/a

6 months ago

Imagine you're in a competition, the one who bets the most on stupid things will win, but you're faced with "Yes" Holders as your opponents.

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

Israel attacked air defense in Iraq, as reported by the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, and Elaph. https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/10/26/world/israel-iran-lebanon-gaza#heres-how-the-israeli-attack-on-iran-unfolded https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/how-israel-pulled-off-its-largest-ever-strike-on-iran-689022ca https://elaph.com/Web/News/2024/10/1551668.html

1

0x4444Fc34bd252890cF24a10ce161e2ae9380C4FB-1729774461789

6 months ago

therea re only reports of israeli fighters flying over USA controlled air space in iraq at low alltitudes no attack reports

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

Their sourcing involving Israeli officials is the closest conceivable thing to official confirmation considering Israel certainly wouldn't claim this officially..

1

Justifax

6 months ago

Resolving markets on un-named officials is very typical for Israeli actions as they rarely confirm their attacks. wsj/nyt are among the most credible outlets that exist today for Polymarket.

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

Rouzzeau and CrabbyPatty are outright scamming, lying, and fabricating to pump no.

1

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

ChatGPT

0

CrabyPatty

6 months ago

Official Statement from Israel's Defense Minister, Yoav Gallant Date: October 27, 2024 In a recent statement, Israel’s Defense Minister Yoav Gallant extended his greetings to the Iraqi people and clarified Israel's current stance regarding Iraq. He emphasized that Israel has no plans concerning Iraq and that relations with the country are being conducted smoothly. Minister Gallant stated, "We maintain a respectful relationship with Iraq and have no intentions to interfere in its affairs. Our focus remains on addressing security concerns in our immediate vicinity, particularly in southern Lebanon, Syria, and Iran, where we are currently engaged in military operations." He reassured that Israel's military strategies are directed toward threats perceived in those areas, reiterating that Iraq is not among the current targets of Israeli military action. "Our objective is to ensure the safety and security of our nation while respecting the sovereignty of our neighbors," Gallant concluded.

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

They mean no one credible. Iraqi official denials are trumped by Israeli officials saying yes and the NYT/WSJ reporting it as fact.

1

Justifax

6 months ago

Again, other than the alhurra link, *nobody* has said Israel didn't bomb stuff in Iraq. Radar belonging to iranian proxies rather than Iraqi govt could have got bombed. That said, I have no idea how scam UMA will resolve stuff, but purely from a truth POV, nyt/wsj is strong consensus unless they retract.

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

That's why they didn't officially claim Syria either.

1

0x4444Fc34bd252890cF24a10ce161e2ae9380C4FB-1729774461789

6 months ago

but they have took responsabillity for attack in iran and syria, why wouldent they take responosability for attacks in iraq if there were any at all?

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

@Kingstonfox incorrect, post source.

1

SirBra

6 months ago

Iraq denied it, Israel didn’t say it happened, there’s no media consensus, obviously it can’t be resolved to “Yes”

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

Israel didn't deny, and several Israeli officials spoke to the NYT and the WSJ

1

n/a

6 months ago

Iraq Denied israel Denied only The 17 Years Old The types chasing easy money say "yes"

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

Thank you Mr. General

1

0x4444Fc34bd252890cF24a10ce161e2ae9380C4FB-1729774461789

6 months ago

as far as i know the iraqi malitias dont own any high tech long range radars for detections only for close to mediume range at best and only AA systems for low and mediume range aircrafts, so no israel did not strike iraq

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

We have a smorgasbord of Israeli officials saying it to the NYT and the WSJ journal. That will carry weight in the arbitration since it's just one step below overt Israeli confirmation which would instantly resolve the market per the rules.

1

SirBra

6 months ago

Iraq denied it, Israel didn’t say it happened, there’s no media consensus, obviously it can’t be resolved to “Yes”

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

They didn't take responsibility for Syria

1

0x4444Fc34bd252890cF24a10ce161e2ae9380C4FB-1729774461789

6 months ago

but they have took responsabillity for attack in iran and syria, why wouldent they take responosability for attacks in iraq if there were any at all?

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

No holders are tripping so hard that Domer is gonna tweet about it.

1

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

Ronen Bergman is reliable.

2

Justifax

6 months ago

I'd be somewhat cautious about this market. There might be retraction(s) in the works. If this was just people reporting based on NYT or something, and NYT retracts it could all fall apart. I don't see that as likely right now, but I dunno if I'd do what car has done.

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

Yes, they crossed Iraq in addition to bombing it.

1

Leapingfrog

6 months ago

Did Israel make any action in Iraqi airspace?

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

NOPE lol

0

King714

6 months ago

LoL I feel Sorry for that "Yes" Holders😁😭😭 BBC and CNN Announced

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

I'm not seeing any users on NO side with a track record to speak of.

0

denizz

6 months ago

P&L of the top 10 yes holders: $1.1 million P&L of the top 10 no holders: $0

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

not equally reported. There is more than 90% chance this goes yes. The NO holders don't have a sense of how the UMA arbitration goes.

0

Car

6 months ago

The fuck are you guys doing haha

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/10/26/world/israel-iran-lebanon-gaza#heres-how-the-israeli-attack-on-iran-unfolded https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/how-israel-pulled-off-its-largest-ever-strike-on-iran-689022ca https://elaph.com/Web/News/2024/10/1551668.html

1

denizz

6 months ago

P&L of the top 10 yes holders: $1.1 million P&L of the top 10 no holders: $0

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

For those on the dumb money side, I advise selling.

1

denizz

6 months ago

The no holders are a mixture of dumb money and pump and dumpers.

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

The no holders are a mixture of dumb money and pump and dumpers.

1

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

You're the dumb money right now, but you have a chance to bail.

2

denizz

6 months ago

P&L of the top 10 yes holders: $1.1 million P&L of the top 10 no holders: $0

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

It was reported by the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, and Elaph.

1

Car

6 months ago

The fuck are you guys doing haha

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

P&L of the top 10 yes holders: $1.1 million P&L of the top 10 no holders: $0

4

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

Iraq has a clear incentive to cover up since they cannot retaliate and will look weak if they admit the attack. There is actually a good reason why the market rules emphasize statements from Israeli officials.

1

denizz

6 months ago

Israel attacked air defense in Iraq, as reported by the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, and Elaph. https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/10/26/world/israel-iran-lebanon-gaza#heres-how-the-israeli-attack-on-iran-unfolded https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/how-israel-pulled-off-its-largest-ever-strike-on-iran-689022ca https://elaph.com/Web/News/2024/10/1551668.html

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

The failing New York Times is fake news :D

1

n/a

6 months ago

Yes its classic denizz and his fake news dont believe hım. Believe in CNN

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

Regarding the Al Hurra report, that was while the strike was ongoing, so the US official cited may not have been up to date.

0

Justifax

6 months ago

The only link contradicting the reports is this: https://www.alhurra.com/iraq/2024/10/26/%D9%85%D8%B5%D8%AF%D8%B1-%D9%8A%D9%83%D8%B4%D9%81-%D8%A3%D8%B3%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%A8-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%81%D8%AC%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%82-%D8%AE%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%84-%D8%B6%D8%B1%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A5%D8%B3%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%A6%D9%8A%D9%84-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%A5%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

Israeli officials confirmed this to both the NYT and the WSJ.

1

Justifax

6 months ago

The only link contradicting the reports is this: https://www.alhurra.com/iraq/2024/10/26/%D9%85%D8%B5%D8%AF%D8%B1-%D9%8A%D9%83%D8%B4%D9%81-%D8%A3%D8%B3%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%A8-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%81%D8%AC%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%82-%D8%AE%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%84-%D8%B6%D8%B1%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A5%D8%B3%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%A6%D9%8A%D9%84-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%A5%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

It was reported by the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, and Elaph.

1

0x4444Fc34bd252890cF24a10ce161e2ae9380C4FB-1729774461789

6 months ago

No new reports about israeli attack in iraq, iran saying israel used usa air space in iraq i dont see it coming out as a yes

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

they did not

1

King714

6 months ago

Sorry but my friends who voted Yes today is not your day :( there is nothing to do because CNN announced that there is absolutely no attack on Iraq

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

Israel hit air defense in Iraq per the NYT, WSJ, and Elaph. The NYT and WSJ also cited high-ranking Israeli sources saying this. Israel doesn't claim attacks on Iraq openly to reduce pressure for Iraq to retaliate.

1

NERA

6 months ago

CNN saying No. https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-iran-strikes-lebanon-gaza-war-10-26-24#cm2qkqgzd001b3b6m90uige80

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

It's about airspace violation so it doesn't even address the issue of the air defense bombing.

0

NERA

6 months ago

CNN saying No. https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-iran-strikes-lebanon-gaza-war-10-26-24#cm2qkqgzd001b3b6m90uige80

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

Israel bombed air defense in Iraq, as reported by the NYT, the WSJ, and Elaph.

1

n/a

6 months ago

Can someone explain why this is at 93%? There is not a SINGLE report confirming that israel bombed iraq. According to the Jerusalem Post, Iraqi officials even DENIED that there was an attack (https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-826132). Is this free money or are they trying to scam people by trying to use unconfirmed tweets as official statements?

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

That's not what that says.

2

NERA

6 months ago

CNN saying No. https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-iran-strikes-lebanon-gaza-war-10-26-24#cm2qkqgzd001b3b6m90uige80

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

That refers to the noise reported in Basra. There were also explosions reported in central Iraq, including at Al Tamimi Air Base, Tikrit.

0

Firedigger

6 months ago

Per WSJ: The first crop of jet fighters destroyed air-defense batteries in Syria and Iraq, clearing the flight path for the second and third sorties to funnel through to Iran.

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

Israel attacked air defense in Iraq, as reported by the NYT, the WSJ, and Elaph.

1

n/a

6 months ago

The heck is happening here? As someone who is mised Iranian Iraqi I can confirm without adoubt that there was no attack on Iraqi soil by Israel.

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

For the record, we don't have enough info to resolve Yemen to yes.

0

EmpirePending

6 months ago

There is a similar market to this but about US strike on Yemen. Many news articles have said it happened but the US have not said anything, that one failed to resolve yes:

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

@sardinianshepherd what al jazeera?

0

EmpirePending

6 months ago

Yes holders have one single sentence from one NYT article and have bid it up to 80c. Crazy stuff happening here

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

There were other explosions besides those heard in Basra.

0

Vladyslav322

6 months ago

is there any real info about israel attack on iraq?

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

As far as I'm concerned, if Ronen Bergman says it happened, it very very likely happened. Plus we have the Elaph article and explosions in central Iraq and at Al Tamimi Air Base..

0

EmpirePending

6 months ago

Yes holders have one single sentence from one NYT article and have bid it up to 80c. Crazy stuff happening here

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/10/26/world/israel-iran-lebanon-gaza#heres-how-the-israeli-attack-on-iran-unfolded https://elaph.com/Web/News/2024/10/1551668.html

0

Vladyslav322

6 months ago

is there any real info about israel attack on iraq?

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/10/26/world/israel-iran-lebanon-gaza/heres-how-the-israeli-attack-on-iran-unfolded Explosions near Al Tamimi airbase were reported Iraqi outlets like pro-Iranian Sabareen, don't have link handy

0

Bektash

6 months ago

while there was a temporary closure of Iraqi airspace; officials later said the blasts happened across the border in Iran. source: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/10/26/israel-strikes-iran-what-we-know-so-far-and-whats-next

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

There were also explosions in central Iraq

0

Bektash

6 months ago

while there was a temporary closure of Iraqi airspace; officials later said the blasts happened across the border in Iran. source: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/10/26/israel-strikes-iran-what-we-know-so-far-and-whats-next

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

calmly changing your mind on one of these bets is one of the hardest parts tbh

1

0x4444Fc34bd252890cF24a10ce161e2ae9380C4FB-1729774461789

6 months ago

Well i may have not won the battle as planned but a win is a win even if its a smaller one

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

Not exactly considering CENTCOM eliminated SAMs in Yemeni airspace last week, but we can't quite prove it.

0

EmpirePending

6 months ago

guys ive just come across this market i had/have no position, but theres countless news articles saying it happened so what's going on with this?

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

Hi, this is Karen Smith. It's 68 degrees, and there's a 71% chance that Israel already attacked Iraq.

1

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

Well it just went from 54 to 70 without me buying any more

0

auns

6 months ago

This market is flipped..

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

I don't expect Israel to openly take credit so we are aiming for a consensus of credible reporting in the next 5 days.

2

0x4444Fc34bd252890cF24a10ce161e2ae9380C4FB-1729774461789

6 months ago

well but will anyone take credit for it until november? no one did until now but they did in syria where the USA has forces as well as Russia

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

كما استهدفت إسرائيل منظومات الدفاع الجوي من طراز S300 روسية الصنع في أنحاء متفرقة من إيران، ودمرت رادارات تغذي هذه المنظومات والمنظومات الأخرى في إيران وسوريا والعراق، بحسب المصادر.

0

EmpirePending

6 months ago

somebody link me an article about radars in iraq being hit

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

The Elaph article says they attacked radars in Syria and Iraq

0

EmpirePending

6 months ago

somebody link me an article about radars in iraq being hit

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

at least post your source so we can discuss

1

Carpfisher

6 months ago

that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting........... At the moment, what we have is that the Israeli government says no; the Iraqi government also says no. “Only a few publications say yes. And a few more that just quote them. All the other media (there are thousands of them at !!!!) are also saying no! Polymarklet cannot make a decision based on a few media outlets. Otherwise, it will not be a market, but a lottery... So you can quickly sell your “yes” while you still have the opportunity.................

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

The Israeli govt doesn't say no, not "thousands" of media outlets lol.

3

Carpfisher

6 months ago

that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting........... At the moment, what we have is that the Israeli government says no; the Iraqi government also says no. “Only a few publications say yes. And a few more that just quote them. All the other media (there are thousands of them at !!!!) are also saying no! Polymarklet cannot make a decision based on a few media outlets. Otherwise, it will not be a market, but a lottery... So you can quickly sell your “yes” while you still have the opportunity.................

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

https://elaph.com/Web/News/2024/10/1551668.html

0

EmpirePending

6 months ago

somebody link me an article about radars in iraq being hit

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/10/26/world/israel-iran-lebanon-gaza/heres-how-the-israeli-attack-on-iran-unfolded

0

EmpirePending

6 months ago

somebody link me an article about radars in iraq being hit

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

This came out very early and it's not exactly convincingly worded

0

Car

6 months ago

Pentagon: We did not detect any targeting in Iraq

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

https://www.alhurra.com/iraq/2024/10/26/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A8%D9%86%D8%AA%D8%A7%D8%BA%D9%88%D9%86-%D9%86%D8%B1%D8%B5%D8%AF-%D8%A3%D9%8A-%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA%D9%87%D8%AF%D8%A7%D9%81%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%82

0

Car

6 months ago

Pentagon: We did not detect any targeting in Iraq

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

They're quoting an Iraqi denial. The Elaph article saying air defense in Iraq was attacked was published around the same time.

0

666himself

6 months ago

so many people linking elaph news and this is their latest about the Facts : https://elaph.com/Web/News/2024/10/1551660.html , We confirm that no Iraqi facility, civilian, military or economic targets inside Iraq were exposed during the Israeli strikes that targeted Iran at dawn on Saturday.

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

This cites the report from Sabareen on explosions near Al Tamimi Airbase. It somewhat supports yes but it's not proof of anything.

0

Shmultz

6 months ago

Fox news (see minute 7:40) https://youtu.be/9bCU3G_G04Q?si=uqqmcn41U6CCZq-U

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

Who/where?

0

Shmultz

6 months ago

So how a resolution is even possible? All major media sites agree that the air defence systems in Iraq were hit on the first wave (the anti aircraft destruction wave). However, as the US is invested in Iraq, Israel won't confirm it. The same goes for the Iraqi gov, as Israel hit Hizballah Iraq bases, so tge gov rather look to the other side and not admit it... Bottomline, everyone in the Israel, including former army claim Iraq was hit (including a fomer IDF spokesman), but this market might wrongly end in NO, as there is no 'proof'. How are we ever to decide here?

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

I haven't seen anything from Israeli media that wasn't citing the NYT or the Iraqi reports of explosions (which are ambiguous).

0

Shmultz

6 months ago

So how a resolution is even possible? All major media sites agree that the air defence systems in Iraq were hit on the first wave (the anti aircraft destruction wave). However, as the US is invested in Iraq, Israel won't confirm it. The same goes for the Iraqi gov, as Israel hit Hizballah Iraq bases, so tge gov rather look to the other side and not admit it... Bottomline, everyone in the Israel, including former army claim Iraq was hit (including a fomer IDF spokesman), but this market might wrongly end in NO, as there is no 'proof'. How are we ever to decide here?

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

1 but it's the NYT/Ronen Bergman. Good start for Yes.

0

Shmultz

6 months ago

So how a resolution is even possible? All major media sites agree that the air defence systems in Iraq were hit on the first wave (the anti aircraft destruction wave). However, as the US is invested in Iraq, Israel won't confirm it. The same goes for the Iraqi gov, as Israel hit Hizballah Iraq bases, so tge gov rather look to the other side and not admit it... Bottomline, everyone in the Israel, including former army claim Iraq was hit (including a fomer IDF spokesman), but this market might wrongly end in NO, as there is no 'proof'. How are we ever to decide here?

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

I don't think there are "ISIS sites" in the immediate vicinity of al Tamimi Airbase, Tikrit, or that Iraq would use F-16s in that situation. The pro-Iranian outlet Sabareen stated that explosions took place in Qadisiyah, Tikrit, where the airbase is located.

1

Car

6 months ago

A source in the Security Media Cell in Iraq confirmed to Alhurra that no site or facility inside Iraqi territory was targeted on Saturday morning during the Israeli strikes on Iran. The source, who preferred to remain anonymous, said that the explosions heard in Salah al-Din were the result of airstrikes carried out by Iraqi F-16 aircraft on ISIS sites, which resulted in the killing of 4 ISIS members

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

Israeli officials telling Ronen Bergman for the NYT is as close as we'll get to an official confirmation from Israel (aside from potentially leaking it to additional less prestigious reporters).

0

Car

6 months ago

No consensus of credible reporting, IDF has not released a statement about attacking Iraq, conflicting reports.

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

And there were other Iraqi reports of explosions in central Iraq.

0

denizz

6 months ago

The New York Times is reporting that Israel attacked air defense in Iraq as fact. They also cited Israeli officials saying that. Pro-Iranian news in Iraq initially reported explosions in the vicinity of al Tamimi Airbase, Tikrit, but later claimed that these were due to Iraqi security operations. LMK if I'm missing anything major.

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

Iraq has a clear incentive to cover up to avoid pressure for Iraq and Iran to retaliate. For similar reasons the IDF has never acknowledged attacking Iraq publicly.

1

Car

6 months ago

No consensus of credible reporting, IDF has not released a statement about attacking Iraq, conflicting reports.

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

However, an attack on air defense as reported by the NYT very likely occurred, further confirmation is likely.

1

Car

6 months ago

No consensus of credible reporting, IDF has not released a statement about attacking Iraq, conflicting reports.

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

The IDF didn't deny

1

Car

6 months ago

Theres no consensus of credible reporting unless you think 2 articles claiming there was an attack and IDF denying these attacks is a consensus.

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

I agree that there is not yet a consensus based on what I've seen

0

Car

6 months ago

No consensus of credible reporting, IDF has not released a statement about attacking Iraq, conflicting reports.

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

The New York Times is reporting that Israel attacked air defense in Iraq as fact. They also cited Israeli officials saying that. Pro-Iranian news in Iraq initially reported explosions in the vicinity of al Tamimi Airbase, Tikrit, but later claimed that these were due to Iraqi security operations. LMK if I'm missing anything major.

2

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

New York Times: "Israel struck air defense systems in Syria and Iraq to prevent those countries from intercepting the attacks."

0

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

denizz

6 months ago

it would be interesting to see the sabareen news report that was referenced

0

Shmultz

6 months ago

Confirmation from Fox news. See 7:40.

Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

Hezbollah needs this to end far more than Israel does

0

denizz

6 months ago

Israeli defense officials: Ground operation in Lebanon is in final phases, expected to end in a week, @kann_news reports.

Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

Israeli defense officials: Ground operation in Lebanon is in final phases, expected to end in a week, @kann_news reports.

0

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

Yeah they regularly claim airstrikes in Yemen explicitly. I was posting this not because it resolves the market but because it shows that US actions in Yemen are ongoing to the point that they have probably already happened during the market period. If people are planning on holding no for more than a few days they should beware.

0

denizz

6 months ago

"Also in the past week, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces successfully destroyed 15 one-way attack uncrewed aerial systems (OWAUAS), Land Attack Cruise Missiles (LACMs), and Surface-to-Air Missiles (SAMs) in the CENTCOM area of responsibility (AOR). These Iranian-supplied weapons, launched episodically by the Houthis and Iranian-Aligned Militia Groups (IAMGs) over several days during the week, posed a significant risk to United States, allies, and partner forces, as well as civilians in the region. The weapons systems were downed by a combination of U.S. Air Force and U.S. Navy assets deployed to the region." Some of these interceptions were presumably in Yemeni airspace, especially the surface-to-air missile interceptions.

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

@based for the record missile interceptions certainly count as "use of force ... on Yemeni ... airspace". Although the US also does ground strikes in Yemen, which are easier to confirm.

0

denizz

6 months ago

"Also in the past week, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces successfully destroyed 15 one-way attack uncrewed aerial systems (OWAUAS), Land Attack Cruise Missiles (LACMs), and Surface-to-Air Missiles (SAMs) in the CENTCOM area of responsibility (AOR). These Iranian-supplied weapons, launched episodically by the Houthis and Iranian-Aligned Militia Groups (IAMGs) over several days during the week, posed a significant risk to United States, allies, and partner forces, as well as civilians in the region. The weapons systems were downed by a combination of U.S. Air Force and U.S. Navy assets deployed to the region." Some of these interceptions were presumably in Yemeni airspace, especially the surface-to-air missile interceptions.

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

The #1 reason why not is that this refers to October 18-24, not exclusively after the 21. But US military action in Yemen has likely happened after the 21 and will continue to happen. .

0

denizz

6 months ago

"Also in the past week, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces successfully destroyed 15 one-way attack uncrewed aerial systems (OWAUAS), Land Attack Cruise Missiles (LACMs), and Surface-to-Air Missiles (SAMs) in the CENTCOM area of responsibility (AOR). These Iranian-supplied weapons, launched episodically by the Houthis and Iranian-Aligned Militia Groups (IAMGs) over several days during the week, posed a significant risk to United States, allies, and partner forces, as well as civilians in the region. The weapons systems were downed by a combination of U.S. Air Force and U.S. Navy assets deployed to the region." Some of these interceptions were presumably in Yemeni airspace, especially the surface-to-air missile interceptions.

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

"Also in the past week, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces successfully destroyed 15 one-way attack uncrewed aerial systems (OWAUAS), Land Attack Cruise Missiles (LACMs), and Surface-to-Air Missiles (SAMs) in the CENTCOM area of responsibility (AOR). These Iranian-supplied weapons, launched episodically by the Houthis and Iranian-Aligned Militia Groups (IAMGs) over several days during the week, posed a significant risk to United States, allies, and partner forces, as well as civilians in the region. The weapons systems were downed by a combination of U.S. Air Force and U.S. Navy assets deployed to the region." Some of these interceptions were presumably in Yemeni airspace, especially the surface-to-air missile interceptions.

1

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

@Aquati the weekly update wouldn't be due til tomorrow evening

0

Shekel

6 months ago

This is crooked. Why not resolved already? 🙄

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

@Aquati Last week they did a "weekly update" including all military actions.

0

Shekel

6 months ago

This is crooked. Why not resolved already? 🙄

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

The Houthis alone won't produce a consensus of credible reporting. Likely need CENTCOM to confirm that it was their explosion.

0

Shekel

6 months ago

This is crooked. Why not resolved already? 🙄

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

No announcement from CENTCOM yet (if they're even the cause of this)

0

Shekel

6 months ago

This is crooked. Why not resolved already? 🙄

Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2024?

denizz

6 months ago

Worst Mideast rules I've seen period

0

Justifax

7 months ago

Top 5 worst rules of all the Israel markets. Full on scam market. Trade at your own risk.

Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2024?

denizz

7 months ago

"For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn into or behind intended buffer zones, even if that zone is established on internationally recognized Palestinian territory." I'm sorry, what?

7

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

denizz

7 months ago

https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-couldnt-let-sinwar-emerge-victorious-from-a-hostage-deal-now-he-doesnt-have-to/

0

Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?

denizz

7 months ago

Syrian police operate in the DMZ, but for the purposes of this market it will be regarded as neutral, not Syrian. If you sell your shares you can thank me later.

0

homeer

7 months ago

During the Syrian Civil War, Quneitra became a clash point between rebel forces and Syrian Arab Army. Between 2014 and July 2018,[7] Quneitra was de facto controlled by the Southern Front, a Syrian rebel alliance. By the end of July 2018, Syrian Government forces regained control over the city.[8][9]

Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?

denizz

7 months ago

We're talking about a part of Quneitra Governorate in the DMZ. Polymarket is highly unlikely to count this as Syria for the purposes of resolving the market.

0

homeer

7 months ago

Read the conditions, Quneitra is syrian ground

Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?

denizz

7 months ago

Quneitra governorate is mostly in the Israeli-occupied Golan

0

polyenjoyeeer

7 months ago

Thats city Quneitra is controlled by Syria

Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?

denizz

7 months ago

Israeli activity in the DMZ is routine in recent years due to the breakdown of order in Syria post 2012.

0

kekkone

7 months ago

So it’s on Syrian controlled territory which also is a DMZ. They’ve been occasionally bulldozing shit on that side of the border since 2022.

Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?

denizz

7 months ago

A small Israeli force went 500 meters into the DMZ (so about to the center line) near Kwdana. This market won't resolve to yes based on this, beware.

0

homeer

7 months ago

Np, it's syrian controlled area

Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?

denizz

7 months ago

The reports you guys are citing are on Israeli activity in the DMZ (not Syrian-controlled territory), which has been fairly routine in recent years.

0

Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?

denizz

7 months ago

This refers to relatively routine Israeli activity in the DMZ, not Syria proper. Market will not resolve to yes over this event

0

Gex

7 months ago

"Local sources told Al Jazeera that an Israeli force accompanied by armored vehicles penetrated into Syrian territory. The sources explained that the bulldozing process took place over a 500-meter stretch with a width of another 1,000 meters, and then it was annexed to the Israeli side by placing barbed wire." https://archive.vn/8FlRO

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

denizz

7 months ago

they're specifically meeting to authorize the retaliation against Iran

0

0xffffffff

7 months ago

lol security cabinet is meeting every week or so

Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?

denizz

7 months ago

that'll teach me to set a time limit on my sell order

0

sigh

7 months ago

CNN: Hezbollah endorses Lebanon ceasefire efforts for the first time as Israel ramps up offensive

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

denizz

7 months ago

Nearby

0

Excellency

7 months ago

Iranian embassy in Syria was shot

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

denizz

7 months ago

Yawn

0

HaterzLoserz

7 months ago

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1843726130991481223

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

denizz

7 months ago

Gallant's trip bein canceled is just the usual Bibi-Gallant turf war

2

HaterzLoserz

7 months ago

Imagine being a no holder and seeing this sequence of tweets hahahaha https://x.com/Faytuks/status/1843719814067712293

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

denizz

7 months ago

Gallant's trip to Washington has been postponed until after Bibi's call with Biden.

2

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

denizz

7 months ago

Shouldn't we be back down to 35 now that all that yes-pumping noise settled down?

0

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

denizz

7 months ago

By the way, Gallant's trip to Washington is canceled/suspended because Bibi doesn't like the US doing everything thru Gallant. Unrelated to the attack on Iran

1

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

denizz

7 months ago

U.S. officials said Israel has been narrowing and finalizing its options with additional meetings yesterday and today...Three U.S. officials said they are concerned that the Israeli response could come Wednesday https://www.nbcnews.com/investigations/israel-not-briefed-us-military-officials-plans-retaliation-iran-rcna174443

2

Yahya Sinwar still Hamas leader by October 31?

denizz

7 months ago

"Following long period in which contact was lost with Hamas' leader, Israeli officials say Arab media report claiming he's alive is incorrect and his fate remains uncertain"

0

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

denizz

7 months ago

Tonight would be a good night for it. Yesterday the airforce had too much to do on the Lebanon front.

0

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

denizz

7 months ago

There's an 85+% chance according to the other markets

0

tsybka

7 months ago

They will not attack Iran before the U.S. elections.

Yahya Sinwar still Hamas leader by October 31?

denizz

7 months ago

Israeli officials reportedly deny that Sinwar renewed contact with mediators

0

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

denizz

7 months ago

I'm going to bed, so my 2 cents: no strike tonight. Israel used so many aircraft for air support in Lebanon this evening that it would put unreasonable strain on the IAF to do Iran too.

2

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

denizz

7 months ago

i was confident in my assessment that no strikes were coming tonight (thus trading some no) and then panicked due to the explosion footage. oh well...

1

denizz

7 months ago

thanks for the advice. i'm still new to this (trading, not the middle east). very frustrating that meticulously accumulated gains can get wiped out in a moment of panic. basically i guess i've been learning **not to trade tired** and not to skip any steps just to try to beat other folks to the sell button...

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

denizz

7 months ago

thanks for the advice. i'm still new to this (trading, not the middle east). very frustrating that meticulously accumulated gains can get wiped out in a moment of panic. basically i guess i've been learning **not to trade tired** and not to skip any steps just to try to beat other folks to the sell button...

1

nicekitty

7 months ago

@denizz my friend, if you let this be a learning opportunity it might just be worth the L of the past 20 minutes, don’t buy/sell with your emotions. Cold, hard logic. This is the way brother

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

denizz

7 months ago

conspiratard spotted

0

BibiNetty

7 months ago

Israel will strike Iran - just not this week. Bibi has lost an absolute ton of domestic support ever since the war has broken out and many Israeli hostages have not been returned. In fact, it is common knowledge that Bibi allowed the Oct.7/'23 attack so that he could suspend elections and remain in power so he would not be tried in court for his own crimes. So, he has lost a lot of domestic support and his failures are at the forefront of Israeli minds today as it is the anniversary of the war. Many are not happy about the bloodshed (and less so as time goes on), especially now that they are fighting Lebanon and are receiving missiles in Haifa from Yemen too.

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

denizz

7 months ago

United States CENTCOM chief Gen. Michael Kurilla held an assessment with IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi yesterday, the Israeli military says. "The general's visit dealt with the security issues at hand, with an emphasis on Iran and the northern front," the IDF says. The visit came amid preparations in the IDF for a response to Iran's ballistic missile attack @manniefabian

2

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

denizz

7 months ago

Iran has limited options to counterattack. Mainly more of the same

1

predictable

7 months ago

When you bet on war use your brain and not media, israel is busy with proxies and have their plates full. If they attack it will definitely be post friday. These betting prices are from fear and emotion, put yourself in Israel's shoes. Iran has already said they will 100% attack almost all Israel's resources if Israel responds on Iranian soil. Israel is too deep in too many areas to worry about a "quick response".

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

denizz

7 months ago

IDF chiefs are currently discussing & approving plans ahead of strike in Iran, @kann_news reports; operational plans shared with US General Kurilla, who is in Israel at this time; IDF chief Halevi views Kurilla as a true friend who can be trusted & consulted with, report says. - Israel Radar

2

youngy

7 months ago

"The US has offered Israel a "compensation package" consisting of extensive diplomatic backing and additional military assistance if it refrains from attacking certain targets in Iran, according to Israel's Kann News". And so the negotiations begin - possibly the reason for Gallant's Oct. 9 visit to the Pentagon.

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

denizz

7 months ago

He can helicopter from there to Tel Aviv in about fifteen minutes so it’s not dispositive

0

youngy

7 months ago

Netanyahu is visiting IDF troops stationed at the Lebanon border today, so I somehow doubt it's happening tonight... (https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-823409)

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

denizz

7 months ago

@youngy I can’t speak to whether there will be another cabinet meeting but the prep for the strike is proceeding following the visit of the US centcom commander

0

denizz

7 months ago

time decay + rumored attack last night didn't occur

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

denizz

7 months ago

@youngy not any one thing, but i bought those shares around when the israeli cabinet authorized the strike

0

denizz

7 months ago

time decay + rumored attack last night didn't occur

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

denizz

7 months ago

time decay + rumored attack last night didn't occur

0

nicekitty

7 months ago

Geez why the drop/jump anyone care to loop me in

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

hint of sarcasm detected

1

🤺JustPunched

7 months ago

The calm before the storm. Our time in this market is drawing to a close, and I am glad that everyone has remained cordial and friends.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

It’s true that NO wasn’t an option in the first round because it started before the deadline. But why is TOO SOON regarded as tantamount to a commitment to NO instead of a pure punt? Certainly and understandably some people voted TOO SOON without thinking they were committing to NO tacitly

0

n/a

7 months ago

https://x.com/Ttvxiunitv/status/1842757896729149782 JUSTKEN CRYING TO THE REFS, THAT'S WHEN YOU KNOW IT'S OVER 🤣 add - astandsforanime for information on how to vote during the final dispute! They could still steal this so it's important you VOTE 💥

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

What’s your source for that info?

0

McLarry

7 months ago

I think the likelihood of UMA solving to yes is 75 maybe slightly worse because of the extreme pressure that Domer, Decap etc build up. But there is also the chance that Polymarket emergency resolves this. After all, yes is the objective reality

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

What is "polymarket emergency"?

0

McLarry

7 months ago

I think the likelihood of UMA solving to yes is 75 maybe slightly worse because of the extreme pressure that Domer, Decap etc build up. But there is also the chance that Polymarket emergency resolves this. After all, yes is the objective reality

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

The operation needed to commence with raids as a tactical step towards the intended operational control. (Actually we still only have "raids," just bigger ones.) I think it's a very tenuous argument to say that 1: yes, the military operation that intended to establish control commenced but 2. the "miltary offensive" initiated under that operation was not intended to establish control. First of all, "military operation" and "military offensive" shouldn't be separated here. We don't have an evidentiary basis for individuating a separate "military offensive" under the heading of the overall "military operation."

0

mr.ozi

7 months ago

Sure, but as per the market rules, we need both 1) the invasion and 2) the intent behind it. So, even if we were to assume the intent was there, the invasion did not commence, because raids are not enough, especially if they have been happening 70+ times since Oct 2023, as disclosed by the IDF.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

These CNN and Walla articles directly speak to Israeli intent to invade and operationally control part of Lebanon on September 30, independent of any subsequent develoments.

0

mr.ozi

7 months ago

He Denizz. The thing is that they might've changed their mind in the meantime. What if due to the US pressure, let's say, they abandoded their invasion and stopped after the raids. In such a case, we wouldn't be able to say that there was an invasion. In other words, the raids themselves, even if preperatory for an invasion, cannot constitute an invasion. The market rules stipulate that an actual invasion to control territory must've commenced on Sep 30. It did not. We only had limited in-and-out raids within 500m of the border. Cheers, friend.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

I somewhat understand that the NO people don't want to use subsequent events (the ramping-up of the Israeli ground op) to decide what Israel's intent was on September 30. However, we cannot ignore credible journalism that speaks directly to Israel's intentions on September 30, which came out between the first resolution proposal and the current one. Late on September 30, Israeli officials told CNN that there would be “no long-term occupation” of Lebanese territory. This suggests that they intended short term control over Lebanese territory. (https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-lebanon-war-hezbollah-09-30-24-intl-hnk#cm1pnn1ki000l3b6mbkmq0ye5) Walla’s military correspondent reported on Oct. 1 morning that, per “the decision of the political echelon,” “the purpose of the limited ground maneuver is a high level of operational control in the area.” (https://news.walla.co.il/item/3695334) Thus, early inside reporting demonstrates Israeli intent to control on September 30.

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

OK, what about reporting that comes out (not events that happen) after September 30? There is a consensus of credible reporting about Israeli intent on September 30 that came out after "yes" was originally proposed late on September 30.

0

Car

7 months ago

I think UMA voters will use common sense and resolve September to NO and November to YES. Everyone who is here for a bit longer knows that deadlines exist for a reason and we cant use event past deadline to resolve a market. We use those events to resolve the NEXT market, which is November market in this case

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

denizz

7 months ago

This is the market for this coming Friday. Title was changed.

1

Mrnoony123

7 months ago

I hope you didnt think it was next friday, that deadline has already been passed

Will Sinwar leave Gaza by October 31?

denizz

7 months ago

31 cent spread is frustrating

1

Israel military response against Iran in October?

denizz

7 months ago

The commander of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), General Michael Kurilla, is expected to arrive in Israel within 24 hours. It is estimated that his visit is for coordinating the response to the Iranian missile attack.

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

With the resolution of the other markets, we’ve established that the Israeli ground operation started September 30, and that it intended to control territory by early October. So, did the operational plans change, or did Israel already intend to control territory on September 30? The argument against intent to control on September 30 originates largely from Israel’s ongoing public claims about the operation, which we have already discounted. Meanwhile, on September 30, Israeli officials told CNN that there would be “no long-term occupation” of Lebanese territory. This suggests that they intended short term control over Lebanese territory. (https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-lebanon-war-hezbollah-09-30-24-intl-hnk#cm1pnn1ki000l3b6mbkmq0ye5) Walla’s military correspondent reported on Oct. 1 morning that, per “the decision of the political echelon,” “the purpose of the limited ground maneuver is a high level of operational control in the area.” (https://news.walla.co.il/item/3695334) Thus, early inside reporting demonstrates Israeli intent to control on September 30. Finally, it should be noted that Israel’s national security cabinet approved the plan for the ground operation on September 30, and there have been no amendments since then to their authorization. The weight of evidence points strongly towards operational control being planned from the start of the operation. NO for this market would be anti-empirical and anti-common sense.

4

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

they're saying around Oct 2-3 when there were instense clashes

0

DonaldinhoTrumpito

7 months ago

So let’s assume Yes wins in the November market, as it’s overwhelmingly doing it right now (currently 91/9). It means there is indeed an invasion with intent of control. Is there any No September defender who can tell us when this invasion started in their view?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

My take: With the resolution of the other markets, we’ve established that the Israeli ground operation started September 30, and that it intended to control territory by early October. So, did the operational plans change, or did Israel already intend to control territory on September 30? The argument against intent to control on September 30 originates largely from Israel’s ongoing public claims about the operation, which we have already discounted. Meanwhile, on September 30, Israeli officials told CNN that there would be “no long-term occupation” of Lebanese territory. This suggests that they intended short term control over Lebanese territory. (https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-lebanon-war-hezbollah-09-30-24-intl-hnk#cm1pnn1ki000l3b6mbkmq0ye5) Walla’s military correspondent reported on Oct. 1 morning that, per “the decision of the political echelon,” “the purpose of the limited ground maneuver is a high level of operational control in the area.” (https://news.walla.co.il/item/3695334) Thus, early inside reporting demonstrates Israeli intent to control on September 30. Finally, it should be noted that Israel’s national security cabinet approved the plan for the ground operation on September 30, and there have been no amendments since then to their authorization. The weight of evidence points strongly towards operational control being planned from the start of the operation. NO for this market would be anti-empirical and anti-common sense.

0

ScarFacee

7 months ago

its very vague. Cause by the book when Israel started the limited ground movement in Lebanon with the intention of killing Hezbollah agents not to occupy lebanon.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

New information needs to be taken into account with each adjudication.

1

🤺JustPunched

7 months ago

Why is already adjuticated in quotes? It was already adjuticated lol.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

There indeed was not quite enough info to prove the Israeli "intent to control" on Sept 30 during the first review. That has changed.

3

denizz

7 months ago

The final review is winnable for YES because the facts are on our side. But we need to make our case. There is a lot of kneejerk resistance on the discord to going from "too soon" to "yes", because it was "already adjudicated".

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

The final review is winnable for YES because the facts are on our side. But we need to make our case. There is a lot of kneejerk resistance on the discord to going from "too soon" to "yes", because it was "already adjudicated".

4

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

denizz

7 months ago

The senior State Department official, asked by CNN whether Israel would use the one-year anniversary of the Hamas attack to retaliate against Iran, said, “It is really hard to tell.” “I think in some ways they would want to avoid the seventh, so in my estimation if there is anything it would likely be before or after,” the official said, pointing to the solemnity of that day and any Israeli retaliation potentially taking away from what that day was all about.

0

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

denizz

7 months ago

US sources estimate Israel will strike in Iran soon; Jerusalem & Washington are coordinated, America has Israel’s back, the sources say via @ynetalerts. Lots of mixed messaging in past 2 days, as timing & scope of Israel’s action remains unclear (good!) https://x.com/IsraelRadar_com/status/1842315443610046958

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

Maybe someone could post this to the discord for me -- my account is too new to post.

2

denizz

7 months ago

With the resolution of the other markets, we’ve established that the Israeli ground operation started September 30, and that it intended to control territory by early October. So, did the operational plans change, or did Israel already intend to control territory on September 30? The argument against intent to control on September 30 originates largely from Israel’s ongoing public claims about the operation, which we have already discounted. Meanwhile, on September 30, Israeli officials told CNN that there would be “no long-term occupation” of Lebanese territory. This suggests that they intended short term control over Lebanese territory. (https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-lebanon-war-hezbollah-09-30-24-intl-hnk#cm1pnn1ki000l3b6mbkmq0ye5) Walla’s military correspondent reported on Oct. 1 morning that, per “the decision of the political echelon,” “the purpose of the limited ground maneuver is a high level of operational control in the area.” (https://news.walla.co.il/item/3695334) Thus, early inside reporting demonstrates Israeli intent to control on September 30. Finally, it should be noted that Israel’s national security cabinet approved the plan for the ground operation on September 30, and there have been no amendments since then to their authorization. The weight of evidence points strongly towards operational control being planned from the start of the operation. NO for this market would be anti-empirical and anti-common sense.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

With the resolution of the other markets, we’ve established that the Israeli ground operation started September 30, and that it intended to control territory by early October. So, did the operational plans change, or did Israel already intend to control territory on September 30? The argument against intent to control on September 30 originates largely from Israel’s ongoing public claims about the operation, which we have already discounted. Meanwhile, on September 30, Israeli officials told CNN that there would be “no long-term occupation” of Lebanese territory. This suggests that they intended short term control over Lebanese territory. (https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-lebanon-war-hezbollah-09-30-24-intl-hnk#cm1pnn1ki000l3b6mbkmq0ye5) Walla’s military correspondent reported on Oct. 1 morning that, per “the decision of the political echelon,” “the purpose of the limited ground maneuver is a high level of operational control in the area.” (https://news.walla.co.il/item/3695334) Thus, early inside reporting demonstrates Israeli intent to control on September 30. Finally, it should be noted that Israel’s national security cabinet approved the plan for the ground operation on September 30, and there have been no amendments since then to their authorization. The weight of evidence points strongly towards operational control being planned from the start of the operation. NO for this market would be anti-empirical and anti-common sense.

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

They seem to confuse "not yet known to be an invasion" with "not yet an invasion". On October 1 the fog of war still obscured whether a proper invasion had started the previous day.

0

Shayku

7 months ago

Here's an excerpt:

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

We’ve established that the Israeli ground operation started September 30 (100%), and that it intended to control territory by early October (99% so far). So, did the operational plans change, or did Israel already intend to control territory on September 30? The argument against intent to control on September 30 originates largely from Israel’s ongoing public claims about the operation, which we have already discounted. Meanwhile, on September 30, Israeli officials told CNN that there would be “no long-term occupation” of Lebanese territory. This suggests that they intended short term control over Lebanese territory. (https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-lebanon-war-hezbollah-09-30-24-intl-hnk#cm1pnn1ki000l3b6mbkmq0ye5) Walla’s military correspondent reported on Oct. 1 morning that, per “the decision of the political echelon,” “the purpose of the limited ground maneuver is a high level of operational control in the area.” (https://news.walla.co.il/item/3695334) Thus, early inside reporting demonstrates Israeli intent to control on September 30. Finally, it should be noted that Israel’s national security cabinet approved the plan for the ground operation on September 30, and there have been no amendments since then to their authorization. The weight of evidence points strongly towards operational control being planned from the start of the operation. A decision of NO for this market would be anti-empirical and anti-common sense.

5

TheGoober

7 months ago

Israel entering lebanon market resolved YES. Israel invasion before November market resolved YES. Therefore this market should resolve YES by proxy

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

November at .99

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

I sold 5000 yes to derisk but I guess I'm holding now.

1

abdendriel

7 months ago

Actually half hoping some Yes holders will take profit early so I can get in

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

Congrats to Chad on not losing his house.

3

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

For "intent" we need to rely on consensus of reporting. Israel didn't publicize that they were going to operationally control territory.

0

abdendriel

7 months ago

Don’t forget the resolution source: A or B or Israel or C. IDF announced it started “a few hours ago” on 30 Sep https://x.com/idf/status/1840890054819864776?s=46

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

Are we really not supposed to use information from the newspaper on Oct. 1 to figure out what happened late on Sept. 30?

1

DT24

7 months ago

They have already voted too early for the YES resolution on Sep 30th at around 23:00. Nothing happened during that 1 hour. The November resolution is for the invasion on Oct 2nd. Scammer who bought YES at 3c-8c are selling it to you at 30c-50c. Don't get scammed.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

Every day there was relevant info regarding the intent of the operation on Sept. 30.

0

McLarry

7 months ago

When was the market proposed? On the 2nd, right? So the invasion was on the 30th, 1st, or 2nd. Now we just have to draw a logical conclusion. On which of these days did we receive crucial information?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

We’ve established that the Israeli ground operation started September 30 (100%), and that it intended to control territory by early October (97% so far). So, did the operational plans change, or did Israel already intend to control territory on September 30? The argument against intent to control on September 30 originates largely from Israel’s ongoing public claims about the operation, which we have already discounted. Meanwhile, on September 30, Israeli officials told CNN that there would be “no long-term occupation” of Lebanese territory. This suggests that they intended short term control over Lebanese territory. (https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-lebanon-war-hezbollah-09-30-24-intl-hnk#cm1pnn1ki000l3b6mbkmq0ye5) Walla’s military correspondent reported on Oct. 1 morning that, per “the decision of the political echelon,” “the purpose of the limited ground maneuver is a high level of operational control in the area.” (https://news.walla.co.il/item/3695334) Thus, early inside reporting demonstrates Israeli intent to control on September 30. Finally, it should be noted that Israel’s national security cabinet approved the plan for the ground operation on September 30, and there have been no amendments since then to their authorization. The weight of evidence points strongly towards operational control being planned from the start of the operation. A decision of NO for this market would be anti-empirical and anti-common sense.

21

·

Liked by n/a, n/a and 19 others

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

denizz

7 months ago

Only 1 of those 3 sources was considered during the first September market debate. So there was no consensus of credible reporting found at that time. Now, we have 3 sources available speaking to the intent issue directly, enough to call a consensus together with other context. Where's the contradiction?

2

JoeBETS

7 months ago

They can't contradict themselves between those 2 markets

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

November market is at .98. cheap no shares available!

3

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

dronestrike incoming

0

Meow.Zedong

7 months ago

I’m ready to FAFO. 🤺🤺🤺🤺🤺

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

For the record, I think it was correct for UMA to punt the decision the first time, not dystopian.

0

Meow.Zedong

7 months ago

Breaking News: US launches airstrikes at Houthi Rebels in Yemen. 1984 Dystopian Team No: “Those were fireworks.” “There’s no evidence of the intent.” “All we know is the US said they fired them and journalists reported it but until I see timestamp videos of blown up Houthi’s on my iPhone, I can’t say for sure.”

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

In addition to Kan and CNN, Walla also reported on Israeli intent to establish operational control. (https://news.walla.co.il/item/3695334) This looks like a consensus of credible reporting on the matter.

0

denizz

7 months ago

I've been a skeptic of "yes", but I now believe that this market should resolve to "yes”, at least eventually. The main point of contention is whether the Israeli operation intends to control territory in Lebanon. Israeli officials told CNN on September 30 (EST) that there would be “no long-term occupation” of Lebanese territory. This certainly suggests that they intend short term control over Lebanese territory. (https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-lebanon-war-hezbollah-09-30-24-intl-hnk#cm1pnn1ki000l3b6mbkmq0ye5) Today, the Israeli state broadcaster Kan reported that the IDF was “starting to gain operational control over the Shiite villages in Southern Lebanon where the forces of the 98th and 36th Divisions are operating.” Kan reports directly from the Israeli security apparatus and this would have been approved by the military censor. (https://x.com/ItayBlumental/status/1842189744832184378) The notion that Israel does not seek control over areas in Lebanon is becoming increasingly hard to sustain. As for the notion that operational control was not already planned on September 30: First, this is belied by the CNN report. Second, there has been no change of grand strategy in the last 4 days, in particular no cabinet meeting at which a change of plans was approved. Thus, the fact that operational control is being established now strongly suggests that this was planned on September 30 when the offensive commenced, as CNN reported.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

when I did the verification it said my account needed to be 3 days older

0

McLarry

7 months ago

Don't buy Y without also presenting your position on Y in Discord, otherwise you're just burning money

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

feel free to post the argument i just wrote out for me. Seems I can't comment because my discord is less than 10 days old.

0

McLarry

7 months ago

Don't buy Y without also presenting your position on Y in Discord, otherwise you're just burning money

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

The CNN report looks accurate in light of subsequent events (https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-lebanon-war-hezbollah-09-30-24-intl-hnk#cm1pnn1ki000l3b6mbkmq0ye5)

1

Car

7 months ago

Im still waiting for proof that IDF invaded before the market end time with the intention to "establish control over any regions of Lebanon". It goes to NO otherwise

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

For the record I do think it was the correct judgement not to close this market during the first go around.

0

DFK

7 months ago

we are many - if not all - in the same boat: we know it is a Yes, but we are scaaaared. I don't know how long you have been on PM, but I am not risking my hard earned money to be scammed by a couple crypto bros, which apparently seems to be the way markets are decided here. Take it with a grain of salt, but I've seen a lot of people saying that markets are decided by 2 (sometimes even 1) people, and that those people actually bet here. Until I know better, I am not trusting the high profile disputes, and I am checking carefully who is on the other side of my bet. Good luck to you.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

I've been a skeptic of "yes", but I now believe that this market should resolve to "yes”, at least eventually. The main point of contention is whether the Israeli operation intends to control territory in Lebanon. Israeli officials told CNN on September 30 (EST) that there would be “no long-term occupation” of Lebanese territory. This certainly suggests that they intend short term control over Lebanese territory. (https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-lebanon-war-hezbollah-09-30-24-intl-hnk#cm1pnn1ki000l3b6mbkmq0ye5) Today, the Israeli state broadcaster Kan reported that the IDF was “starting to gain operational control over the Shiite villages in Southern Lebanon where the forces of the 98th and 36th Divisions are operating.” Kan reports directly from the Israeli security apparatus and this would have been approved by the military censor. (https://x.com/ItayBlumental/status/1842189744832184378) The notion that Israel does not seek control over areas in Lebanon is becoming increasingly hard to sustain. As for the notion that operational control was not already planned on September 30: First, this is belied by the CNN report. Second, there has been no change of grand strategy in the last 4 days, in particular no cabinet meeting at which a change of plans was approved. Thus, the fact that operational control is being established now strongly suggests that this was planned on September 30 when the offensive commenced, as CNN reported.

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

denizz

7 months ago

I've been a skeptic of "yes", but I now believe that this market should resolve to "yes". The main point of contention is whether the Israeli operation intends to control territory in Lebanon. Israeli officials told CNN on Oct. 1 that there would be “no long-term occupation” of Lebanese territory. This certainly suggests that they intend short term control over Lebanese territory. (https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-lebanon-war-hezbollah-09-30-24-intl-hnk#cm1pnn1ki000l3b6mbkmq0ye5) Today, the Israeli state broadcaster Kan reported that the IDF was “starting to gain operational control over the Shiite villages in Southern Lebanon where the forces of the 98th and 36th Divisions are operating.” Kan reports directly from the Israeli security apparatus and this would have been approved by the military censor. (https://x.com/ItayBlumental/status/1842189744832184378) The notion that Israel does not seek control over areas in Lebanon is becoming increasingly hard to sustain.

7

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

local time

0

CheerfulPessimist

7 months ago

local time or Eastern Time, cause October 1st 6:59 am Lebanese time is still Sept. 30th Eastern Time

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

denizz

7 months ago

There was a whole other market for entering. This market is for something beyond transient raids.

0

CYQ

7 months ago

f my tank is over the border, then I control that land. Try to get near my tank waving a Pal Flag and you will be blasted.

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

denizz

7 months ago

that's untrue. the IDF doesn't stop fighting on Shabbat

2

Amok

7 months ago

And Shabbat begins in around 6pm Israeli time (so roughly 1 hour) today. Israel generally doesn't launch new military activities on Shabbat. It would severely anger Netanyahu's religious coalition partners.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

denizz

7 months ago

Israel still hasn’t controlled any territory, per the Institute for the Study of War. There is no consensus that they are trying to do so, which would be contra their stated intentions. This market **cannot resolve to yes at this time**, since intent to establish control of Lebanese territory has not been shown by consensus of reporting.

3

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

Control hasn't been established

0

Shayku

7 months ago

Presence on Sep 30 has been established. Control after Sep has been established. This hinges on whether the sep 30 raids can be considered as part of an offensive intended to establish control.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

Bibi the point is that no credible source indicates Israeli control of Lebanese territory

0

BibiNetanyahu

7 months ago

"Institute" is just a name, imho they are a think thank with a political agenda and receive funding from defence contractors, so I would take any information with a grain of salt.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

Israel still hasn’t controlled any territory, per institute for the study of war. No consensus that they are trying to do so, which would be contra their stated intentions.

2

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

it's the second vote, right?

0

ncap

7 months ago

we will see the final result in 2d 13h

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

the real problem is that the market rules were written poorly

3

DFK

7 months ago

the discrepancy between reality and odds is a testament to the lack of confidence in UMA voting. For a place supposedly dedicated to truth, it's sad.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

What's the current voting schedule and procedure? There was already a vote that ended in "too early", right?

0

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

denizz

7 months ago

They've done it several times

0

tsybka

7 months ago

Never

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

why is that supposedly good for "no"?

1

Dropper11

7 months ago

we will be able to propose again. There will probably be another dispute, but this time it will only be YES or NO

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

they said that explicitly elsewhere

0

x3x3

7 months ago

The IDF spokesperson said: "the State of Israel has the right and the obligation to do what 1701 failed to do". Where does it say that they don't want to control any territory

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

Why are some people commenting that that would likely lead to a resolution of no?

0

Fredi9999WASP🐝

7 months ago

Neither, it will be Open for proposal again

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

The only source for Israeli boots on the ground in September is the Israeli government, and they maintain that it wasn't to control territory.

0

x3x3

7 months ago

This market is about the start of an offensive. Air strikes and raids like in Gaza are part of the operation. There is only proof needed that Israel controls the Lebanese border. The date doesn‘t matter as there are multiple sources all around the world confirming this started before 12 PM ET

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

1701 is their overall political goal

0

x3x3

7 months ago

@denizz Ok why does the IDF say they want to restore resolution 1701, and how are they going to do that without controlling the southern border of Lebanon? Also, this is the same playbook as Gaza and the early raids and air strikes are obviously part of the offensive.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

Worth stressing there’s no official source which both claims that Israel entered Lebanon in September and that they did so to control territory.

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

One factual error: The raids were to neutralize Hezbollah offensive infrastructure, not soften Hezbollah defensive positions.

0

x3x3

7 months ago

Exactly and only the start of an offensive is required for this market to to resolve. The air strikes and raids are part of this operation as stated by IDF. This is not WW2 where you rush in with 1000s of tanks. You obviously want to make everything safe for your troops to reduce loses. They did the same in Gaza and started with air strikes and raids before moving on. They still invaded Gaza and it's obvously part of the plan. If you don't do it that way you end up like Russia. But at the all three are military offensives in a different country to establish control.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

no, they are destroying the military infrastructure in a series of locations and returning to israel each time

0

PBet

7 months ago

'It is primarily an engineering operation, meant to uproot military infrastructure along the border' - so they want to establish control over the land close to the border?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

Any troops in lebanon on the 30 already touched Israeli ground

0

x3x3

7 months ago

If Israel stays and expands it‘s control this will go Yes because it started 30 September

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

Hezb claims there were clashes nearby today?

0

RMupOnly

7 months ago

I'm living in metula(Israeli side), the idf hasn't entered Lebanon yet! maybe they said they did to confuse the enemy but for now the border hasn't been breached. The raids and special operations in to Lebanon have been taken throughout the year of missile firing in to Israel. the IDF spokesperson released yesterday footage of these raids an special operations that were taken a couple of months ago otherwise how can you edit and censor such classified information in such a small window of time(I'm talking about the bet time rules) there are no concrete evidence that this raids and operations happened between 18 - 30 of September. the link below: https://www.idf.il/en/mini-sites/israel-at-war/briefings-by-idf-spokesperson-rear-admiral-daniel-hagari/october-24-press-briefings/press-briefing-by-idf-spokesperson-radm-daniel-hagari-october-1-18-50-pm-2024/

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

Actually the term military offensive normally refers to a large coordinated maneuver involving a division or at least close to a division.

1

PBet

7 months ago

you NO's keep referring to the word 'invasion' which simply doesnt matter. read the rules. 'military offensive' means attacking as opposed to defending. Incursions, raids or whatever are clearly offensive.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

The Israeli operation during September 30-October 1 is now known to have been very limited, localized around the town of Metula, and not an attempt to establish control of territory. Given the existence of another market just for Israeli troops entering, a resolution of “yes” would be absurd here.

4

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

The situation is fluid. If Israel has a cabinet meeting and decides to do a proper invasion, that cannot be retroactively attributed to September.

1

Justifax

7 months ago

Whatever is happening, *commenced* in September EST. This is what we all know. What everyone has reported. This is *indisputable*. I won't say what is happening, only that it started / began / commenced in September EST. If IDF announces a change in intention, sure a new beginning, but that seems unlikely.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

The concrete goals can shift with each cabinet meeting or more frequently

1

Justifax

7 months ago

If I were you I'd sell NO here and buy it in November - much cheaper! Everything commenced on sept 30th, EST. If you say otherwise, you're a scammer or an idiot. Unless you think they're suddenly going to magically change their goals in november, I guess....

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

"Offensive" normally refers to division-scale warfare.

0

denizz

7 months ago

"A military offensive is a carefully planned attack made by a large group of soldiers." https://www.collinsdictionary.com/dictionary/english/offensive

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

"A military offensive is a carefully planned attack made by a large group of soldiers." https://www.collinsdictionary.com/dictionary/english/offensive

0

denizz

7 months ago

It should be noted that a cluster of recon and demo missions in the vicinity of one town is far from meeting the definition of "military offensive" that is used by military officers and in war studies.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

It should be noted that a cluster of recon and demo missions in the vicinity of one town is far from meeting the definition of "military offensive" that is used by military officers and in war studies.

3

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

The "ground operation" consists of infantry -- no armor -- mapping and demolishing abandoned Hezbollah infrastructure in the vicinity of the town of Metula, Israel. They don't have enough troops to "establish control" of the area -- Hezbollah is already absent. Moreover, they will retreat to Israel as soon as the demo/mapping is completed. https://www.timesofisrael.com/a-limited-lebanon-raid-with-narrow-goals-is-no-game-changer-but-comes-with-risks/

2

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

Though the move is occupying headlines and the attention of world leaders, the scale of the operation shouldn’t be overstated. The operation, which really can’t be called a full ground maneuver, has troops moving a few hundred yards — and in some cases a couple of kilometers — into Lebanon. So far, there have not been clashes with enemy fighters, since Hezbollah simply is not there anymore. It didn’t flee in the face of charging IDF columns; Hezbollah pulled most of its elite Radwan force from the border once the potential for a surprise invasion of the north disappeared with Hamas’s attacks on October 7. Other Hezbollah units, including those meant to bleed an IDF incursion, were also pulled back as they were being picked off by Israeli strikes. In dozens of raids into Lebanon in the last year, IDF forces encountered no opposition. They also destroyed weapons and infrastructure that would have been used in an October 7-style attack on northern Israel. The idea of the current operation is certainly not to defeat Hezbollah, nor is it designed to engage and kill its fighters. It is primarily an engineering operation, meant to uproot military infrastructure along the border — rocket launch sites, tunnels, defensive positions, and command bunkers. Moreover, Israeli commandoes have been quietly carrying out similar raids for months.https://www.timesofisrael.com/a-limited-lebanon-raid-with-narrow-goals-is-no-game-changer-but-comes-with-risks/

2

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

Israel didn't send tanks, only commando teams on foot, without the numbers necessary to control any area. Hezbollah evacuated these border posts months ago to avoid Israeli fire. The commando teams are adding value purely in terms of locating and destroying Hezbollah assets in these villages. They are not adding any "control" beyond the weak form of control (i.e. fire control) that Israel already achieved remotely. (see https://x.com/manniefabian/status/1841093966436933979 )

2

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

Israeli troops are definitely on the Lebanese side, that's not the dispute. Possibly no tanks tho.

2

🤺JustPunched

7 months ago

Have I lost my lost my mind? What is the evidence they invaded? IDF says no invasion, AP says they didn't see any troops cross the border, and Hezbollah says they didn't invade.

Will Sinwar leave Gaza by October 31?

denizz

7 months ago

It's showing me a 92 cent spread?

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

CNN cannot independently verify the extent of Israel’s operation in Lebanon or the types of forces on the ground there. The IDF has been building up its presence along Israel’s northern border for weeks, redeploying some units that had previously fought in Gaza to Israel’s northern border area. The security official said the forces that have entered are “not numbers of a large ground invasion.” “The amount of forces and the type of forces are more appropriate to something of a limited raid, and not, for example, things we’ve seen in Gaza with very, very large forces,” the official said. The official also pushed back against suggestions that Israel has begun an invasion of Lebanon, criticizing media reports that called the operation “an incursion” that is “going to Beirut.” “That is not on the table. We’re talking about limited, localized, targeted raids based on precise intelligence in areas near the border.”

2

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

Is the discussion of the dispute publicly available?

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

What are you quoting?

0

n/a

7 months ago

This market would likely resolve to **No** based on the available information. While Israel did launch **ground raids** into southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah positions on **September 30, 2024**, these operations were described as **limited and localized** and not intended to establish broader control over Lebanese territory【7†source】【8†source】. The purpose of the raids was primarily to neutralize immediate threats near the border, not to seize or hold any part of Lebanon【6†source】【8†source】. There has been no official indication from Israel, Lebanon, or international bodies such as the UN or UN Security Council members that Israel sought to establish control over any portion of Lebanon during this period. Therefore, the conditions for this market, which hinge on a military offensive intended to gain control over Lebanese land, do not appear to have been met.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

incorrect, they explicitly didn't invade to create a buffer zone by force.

2

kingsirpredictionconnoisseur

7 months ago

Control is part of occupation. Occupation can be part of control. They invaded Lebanon to create a buffer zone between the border, with an uncertain timeline. This is a clear intent to assert control over the region, regardless of whether they plan to occupy it long term

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

meforum claim is unevidenced. Gordin isn't known to have ordered anything beyond the raids Israel declared

0

HsB34sgg

7 months ago

https://www.meforum.org/israel-launches-extensive-ground-invasion-of-southern-lebanon "However, the scale and intensity of the operation suggest a more extensive campaign than initially indicated. The Commanding Officer of the IDF Northern Command, Major General Ori Gordin, has met with the commanders of the 98th, 91st, and 36th Divisions to approve plans for an expansion of fighting in the North, indicating a well-coordinated and potentially prolonged operation."

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

All indications are that Israel launched *raids* last night. Troops will return to the safety of the Israeli side after their missions, without establishing forward operating bases.

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

Still no reporting showing that Israel intends to control Lebanese territory. As we get further after the deadline, any new reporting will be too late to reliably establish intent retroactively.

3

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

the issue is they announced coordinated raids not an offensive thrust/security zone/occupation/etc

0

abdendriel

7 months ago

I can’t believe there’s still a question about whether a military offensive occurred. IDF have even announced it.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

That CNN piece is the best evidence for yes so far. However, no, it just means they're not promising not to engage in a short term occupation. That's somewhat different than saying you will engage in a short term occupation. Perhaps more importantly, that is one source citing anonymous officials. Not an official Israeli statement and not enough for a consensus of reliable sources.

0

cooker

7 months ago

"There will be no long-term occupation" means the territory is already under control

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

There's been no reporting so far that shows that the Israeli incursions aim to establish territorial control, i.e.are more than transient raids.

3

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

That may require staying on the Lebanese side for 24+ hours without returning to Israel which would mean they are establishing localized temporary control.

0

HeHeardANoise

7 months ago

Look folks. Unless some major fuckery happens, this Market is a clear "no." The article below explains the differnece between an invasion and the incursion that is happening. The KEY PHRASE from the article is this: The raids by Israeli special operations forces would be designed to eliminate fighting positions from which Hezbollah has attacked towns in northern Israel."

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

I'm not seeing any reporting that indicates they intend to establish control of territory. These seem to be coordinated raids with troops returning to the Israeli side

0

HsB34sgg

7 months ago

More reputable and credible news outlets reporting!!! It's a resounding Yes resolution to this market!!! Already, ABC, NBC, Washington Post, Fox News, New York Post, Daily Mail! More incoming!!!

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

Temporary military control should count as long as it's not very transient for the purposes of a raid

0

ErrantSloth

7 months ago

Is the purpose of the invasion to establish control? Not sure I understand. I thought this invasion was to go after Hezbollah and destroy their infrastructure, not annex land. Perhaps taking temporary military control counts??

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

good question

0

MaccabeanSoldier

7 months ago

Do actual boots of Israeli soldiers need to enter into Lebanon today? Or just the beginnings or “commencement " of that invasion process before 11:59PM

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

denizz

7 months ago

It's talking about at unspecified times in the last 18 years

0

Foreseeable.

7 months ago

This is literally a confirmation. " Israeli commandos have penetrated 'deep into the country' for 'sensitive intelligence missions" https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/nyt-israel-has-sent-undercover-commandos-deep-into-lebanon-for-sensitive-intelligence-missions/

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

denizz

7 months ago

Taking the L on this one gg

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

denizz

7 months ago

"preparing for" -- can mean anything

1

MisTKy

7 months ago

Urgent | ABC, citing an American official: Israel is preparing for a limited ground attack in #Lebanon

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

denizz

7 months ago

no confirmation

0

HaterzLoserz

7 months ago

https://x.com/novussubsole/status/1839969767924355537

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

denizz

7 months ago

missile from Yemen. ground invasion of Yemen imminent!

0

abdendriel

7 months ago

Sirens going off in Tel Aviv. IDF telling the world that militants with rockets across the border are still a threat

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

denizz

7 months ago

The current exchanges of fire are extremely lopsided. Israel will prefer to go on like this for a while before resorting to a ground invasion.

2

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

denizz

7 months ago

Israel has not been implementing the dahiya doctrine

0

Justifax

7 months ago

There seems to be a movement to get Lebanon to step up at this point. I think like Gaza that just isn't doable, but if there is mobilization of Lebanese forces (I've seen none) perhaps it might work. Considering how many people that Israel has randomly killed at this point I see it as unlikely. If they had just taken out Nas in the beginning with minimal collateral damage, that might have worked. Sadly, they mistakenly think Dahiya Doctrine will end in something other then endless human misery for all sides.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

denizz

7 months ago

By targeting Hezbollah’s leadership in a major Beirut airstrike on Friday, Israel is hoping to avoid launching a ground invasion in Lebanon, a senior Israeli official told reporters on Friday. The strike targeting Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah and other top officials in the terror group huddling at a main command center in Beirut’s Dahiyeh suburb was aimed at breaking Hezbollah, the senior official explained

3

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

denizz

7 months ago

apparently those 3 were Hezb's anti-ship missile caches

1

ActDrew

7 months ago

So much for 3 targeted strikes on a specific Beirut building, they're just bombing the shit out of it

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

denizz

7 months ago

Maybe tomorrow lads

0

Nasrallah remains Hezbollah leader through Oct 31?

denizz

7 months ago

According to Reuters; Members of Hezbollah have been unable to reach Senior Leaders, including but not limited to Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, by Phone since the Israeli Strike on the Command Bunker in the Suburbs of Beirut.

0

Nasrallah remains Hezbollah leader through Oct 31?

denizz

7 months ago

unreliable

0

Donkov

7 months ago

https://www.dailysabah.com/world/mid-east/nasrallah-survives-unprecedented-israeli-strikes-on-lebanons-beirut

Nasrallah remains Hezbollah leader through Oct 31?

denizz

7 months ago

https://nitter.poast.org/sentdefender/status/1839727825936412924

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

denizz

7 months ago

Either that or it responds severely enough to precipitate an invasion. I'm leaning towards the first option.

0

Car

7 months ago

Now that Nasrallah is dead, Hezbollah will back out of the war.

Nasrallah remains Hezbollah leader through Oct 31?

denizz

7 months ago

Censorship is orders of magnitude more severe in Qatar than in Israel, which basically has a free press.

0

Justifax

7 months ago

Good sources for news here is https://www.aljazeera.com/ and jewish media such as https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/source-close-to-hezbollah-says-nasrallah-fine-iran-security-official-were-checking-his-status/ Normally I dislike toi and friends because censorship is a serious problem in Israel, but this is about Beirut so I think it will be accurate.

Nasrallah remains Hezbollah leader through Oct 31?

denizz

7 months ago

I suppose Israel got him bc the US is telling the press he was in Beirut https://abcnews.go.com/International/israel-targets-hezbollah-headquarters-large-strike-beirut-idf/story?id=114281585

0

Nasrallah remains Hezbollah leader through Oct 31?

denizz

7 months ago

says the guy who just posted al jazeera

0

Justifax

7 months ago

Some sources are great for providing bits of signal, sentdefender is one of them, but only if you know how to take them with a grain of salt. sd, for example, has a very strong hawkish right wing western bias.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

denizz

7 months ago

"After the major offensive at the beginning of the week, the air force scaled down its attacks. And the call-up of the reserves to the north remains quite limited – two infantry brigades and a few relatively small additions. And while the possibility of a ground maneuver in south Lebanon is repeatedly raised in TV studios, it's worth [underscoring] that only two reserve brigades have been called up to date."

2

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

denizz

7 months ago

"Earlier this week, the United States shared with Israel its intention to put forward, together with other international and regional partners, a ceasefire proposal in Lebanon...Israel shares the aims of the US-led initiative of enabling people along our northern border to return safely and securely to their homes. Israel appreciates the US efforts in this regard because the US role is indispensable in advancing stability and security in the region...Our teams met (Thursday, Sept. 26) to discuss the US initiative ... We will continue those discussions in the coming days,"

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

denizz

7 months ago

You should be realizing gains while you can not scamming in the comments

3

HaterzLoserz

7 months ago

Current situation is basically Israel stated today "Hezb must withdraw North of the Litani, the Lebanon govt must accept this and the UN sends in peace keeping troops to secure southern lebanon, or we will do it ourselves, you have 3 days.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

denizz

7 months ago

Ceasefire still on most likely. Netanyahu meeting with Blinken today.

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

denizz

7 months ago

nice pump, but he's not even a member of the govt.

0

HaterzLoserz

7 months ago

3 day ceasefire potentially, and if these basically unattainable terms arent reached, we will see Israel cross the border

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

denizz

7 months ago

Joining Britain’s Sky News, Lebanon’s MTV news site reports that there are officials who expect a temporary ceasefire in the Israel-Hezbollah conflict to be reached soon. MTV cites unnamed sources familiar with the negotiations as claiming that diplomatic efforts to secure a ceasefire are “progressing,” and that they envision a deal “soon.”

0

CometoJesusMoment

7 months ago

no ceasefire yet. Sources referring to the negotiations told Sky News in Arabic: "There are ideas and discussions, but no result so far. The discussions are not only related to Lebanon, but also include Gaza. The negotiations are being conducted at the international level. Hezbollah still sticks to its position - there is no separation between Lebanon and Gaza."

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

denizz

7 months ago

Netanyahu orders IDF to scale down strikes in Lebanon as talks on temporary ceasefire continue, @N12News reports.

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

denizz

7 months ago

Hezbollah will take any break it can get while saving face so the full 21 days should be expected

1

Justifax

7 months ago

imho, without a gaza ceasefire I don't give this more than a few days. I am very hopeful a gaza deal will emerge. If not, however..

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

denizz

7 months ago

21 days -- doubt it will break early

0

Justifax

7 months ago

https://x.com/N12News/status/1839193379566952567 Seems like something will happen, though for how long and who breaks it first I dunno.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

denizz

7 months ago

what are you referring to?

0

nicekitty

7 months ago

check again

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

denizz

7 months ago

No rocket fire from Lebanon in nearly 18 hours. No Israeli airstrikes so far this morning after reports of over 150 strikes in Beqaa region overnight, @ynetalerts says.

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

denizz

7 months ago

Hezbollah to a T

1

PokerBrat

7 months ago

They like to throw a few rockets at children but other than that they don’t really invade

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

denizz

7 months ago

Any reason for the big jump in the last hour?

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

denizz

7 months ago

minor

1

Icannotbetwhereilive

7 months ago

Possible security event on border

Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?

denizz

7 months ago

Reports by The Wall Street Journal and Channel 12 news say the basic idea being negotiated is a halt of up to four weeks, during which negotiations would be held for a ceasefire in Lebanon and in Gaza. Channel 12 says Hamas would also announce it is holding fire, while IDF forces would remain in Gaza but not invade Lebanon. The network says talks would then focus on upgrading Security Council Resolution 1701 to better enforce a ceasefire and guarantee Hezbollah move away from the border.

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

denizz

7 months ago

they've been talking about a ground invasion for months

0

n/a

7 months ago

Long term, the answer is yes. Might settle down tonight but if you're holding out till the end, this is the easiest money you'll ever see. They're talking about a ground invasion out in the open, not even a week into this conflict. It's happening. You can get in on it now, or wait till it hits 60c but the smart choice is obvious

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

denizz

7 months ago

Invasion: yes Ceasefire: yes would be a good hedge rn. Chances of neither/nor clearly down today

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

denizz

7 months ago

that won't happen but it wouldn't count as a "military offensive"

2

MisTKy

7 months ago

My question for this market is what if they agree to truce were Hez retreats from the South and Israel enters without a fight ?

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

denizz

7 months ago

@Gerdii suspiciously high percentage of adult males in the casualty figures provided by Lebanon

0

FromMalaysia

7 months ago

Wow wow wow wow wow..... Today, just fucking today Israel target to kill the Hezbollah but killed 500 civilian. Break a new record of casualties in the 18 years since the year 2006...

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

denizz

7 months ago

That 500 was mostly combatants

1

FromMalaysia

7 months ago

Wow wow wow wow wow..... Today, just fucking today Israel target to kill the Hezbollah but killed 500 civilian. Break a new record of casualties in the 18 years since the year 2006...

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

denizz

7 months ago

"No specific changes in IDF Home Front Command instructions were announced." "In central and southern Israel, school and work is scheduled to take place as normal."

0

HaterzLoserz

7 months ago

State of Emergency declared for all of Israel

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

denizz

7 months ago

Israeli generals literally shaking and crying rn after reading the NYT analysis

0

Justifax

7 months ago

Israel’s gamble: Israeli officials had hoped that by scaling up their attacks over the past week, they would unnerve the group and convince it to pull farther back from the Israel-Lebanon border. For now, the opposite has happened: Hezbollah leaders have said they will continue their attacks until a cease-fire is agreed to in Gaza between Israel and Hamas, the militia’s ally. https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/09/23/world/gaza-israel-hamas-hezbollah?smid=url-share#here-are-the-latest-developments

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

denizz

7 months ago

If they proceed with a ground invasion, there's no good reason for them not to wait til after the election. Currently they only have enough ground forces at the border to defend it not launch an offensive.

2

HaterzLoserz

7 months ago

Remember everyone, the people arguing for No here like Car/Xi, have no intention of holding until resolution, their intention is to sell in a week and flip trade like always. At this point, everyone knows this invasion is now a matter when, not if the IDF invades, and 5 weeks is more than enough time for real action. Good timing to get $ back for the election too. whatever happens, ill be here holding this undervalued stack ;)

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

denizz

7 months ago

they haven't gone after Hezb's best missiles yet

0

Justifax

7 months ago

Haifa and Safed are the two key targets that upset Israel, both of which Hez attacked after the civilian bombing that just occurred. Clearly they are not getting the message. Israel has pretty much gone over every red line, the last will be infrastructure and then invasion. We may see more bombing of civilians first, however.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

denizz

7 months ago

if I want to fuck an amateur i can just log on here

0

HaterzLoserz

7 months ago

Full Disclosure: I watched the harris/trump debates on magic mushrooms and blew $60k on mention markets in one evening. Just so you all know who you are dealing with here.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

denizz

7 months ago

yyou're about to fund my hooker budget so no parties for me

0

HaterzLoserz

7 months ago

Full Disclosure: I watched the harris/trump debates on magic mushrooms and blew $60k on mention markets in one evening. Just so you all know who you are dealing with here.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

denizz

7 months ago

"military offensives" are coordinated strategic maneuvers, not transient raids. Similarly transient raids are unlikely to be judged as "intended to establish control". The market will resolve to yes if e.g. they move to establish the planned buffer zone.

0

HaterzLoserz

7 months ago

Full Disclosure: I watched the harris/trump debates on magic mushrooms and blew $60k on mention markets in one evening. Just so you all know who you are dealing with here.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

denizz

7 months ago

“The plans for a ground invasion are ready,” said one reserve officer involved in the preparations. “But we’re still a way off from having the sufficient forces here to carry them out.”

0

sd2333

7 months ago

Military sources say that Israel is also planning a ground offensive that would include the capture of a buffer-zone consisting of a few miles of territory north of the border. https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2024/09/22/israel-and-hizbullah-creep-closer-to-all-out-war

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

denizz

7 months ago

Personally I think you are underestimating the seriousness of Israeli operation that would be required for this to resolve to yes.

1

HaterzLoserz

7 months ago

Full Disclosure: I watched the harris/trump debates on magic mushrooms and blew $60k on mention markets in one evening. Just so you all know who you are dealing with here.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

denizz

7 months ago

rocket fire, not a serious ground attack

0

sd2333

7 months ago

#BREAKING Israel believes that Hezbollah plans a wide attack tomorrow, strikes in southern Lebanon continue

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

denizz

7 months ago

they'll probably do it after the election if no diplomatic solution emerges

0

HaterzLoserz

7 months ago

How exactly would IDF achieve the stated goal of securing North Israel for residents to return without creating a buffer zone in South Lebanon?

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

denizz

8 months ago

“Offensive” would generally imply coordinated action larger than a raid or coordinated series of raids in any case

0

denizz

8 months ago

If it’s just a few hours for the purposes of a raid, I doubt it will resolve to yes. But the wording is unfortunately poor.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

denizz

8 months ago

Untrue, it was the commander of the radwan unit

1

Justifax

8 months ago

Israeli channels are alleging that Naim Qassem, the Deputy Secretary-General of Hezbollah, was the target of the assassination strike in Beirut. ... big, if true

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

denizz

8 months ago

If it’s just a few hours for the purposes of a raid, I doubt it will resolve to yes. But the wording is unfortunately poor.

0

HaterzLoserz

8 months ago

People try so hard to cope about rules here lol. Its very easy, even a small incursion for a few hours will require establishing control along the border. this idea that Israel needs to come out and explicitly state "We intend to hold this part of lebanon indefinitely" is just ridiculous. Taking control of a few hundred meter area past a border checkpoint as a forward operating base for a couple hours would suffice ^ Intent to control any part of lebanon, no time horizon stated. This is not some hard thing to prove, its pretty easy. Any sort of ground troops, armored vehicles etc establishing a perimeter of any kind within lebanese borders.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

denizz

8 months ago

"After wrapping up a security assessment, the IDF announces that it’s removing restrictions on movement in numerous cities and communities in the north, after instructing residents there to remain near bomb shelters overnight following intensive airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon."

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

denizz

8 months ago

"settlers" is usually used (in this context) by people who dispute the legitimacy of Israel. For example Nasrallah used this terminology in his speech today

0

Justifax

8 months ago

Israel is likely hoping that Hez will overreact and give them an excuse to escalate. Hez has proven everytime not to do this even when pushed. They already have a deterrence which is keeping settlers out of the north. There's no reason I can see to change the equation.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

denizz

8 months ago

“Settlers”

0

Justifax

8 months ago

Israel is likely hoping that Hez will overreact and give them an excuse to escalate. Hez has proven everytime not to do this even when pushed. They already have a deterrence which is keeping settlers out of the north. There's no reason I can see to change the equation.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

denizz

8 months ago

They’ve already entered Lebanon briefly a few times in ways that were too insignificant to count

0

MisTKy

8 months ago

If you guys are betting thinking that rules are unclear your very wrong. If Israel will enter Lebanon, it woun't be something debatable. They will probably announce it and the intent will be to retain control over that area. They woun't invade whole Lebanon probably just try to create a area of a couple of Km. Don t get scammed by Car.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

denizz

8 months ago

It resolves based on the arbitration. Israeli statements aren’t definitive

0

MisTKy

8 months ago

So it is like this, they blow up communications, they amass troops on the border, they prepare the public (they say their goal is to bring back people to the north) ofc they woun't say invasion they will say that they need to establish a buffer zone/safe zone in Lebanon :D

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

denizz

8 months ago

@haterzloserz most likely it won't be a "yes" unless Israel establishes a forward operating base on Lebanese territory and/or parks some armor there. Extended raids of under a day probably don't count

0

0xea04FcC960ACc382dd1E67f9790e55C7294aB8C2-1721595795089

8 months ago

No its just a show of force like tensions in the cold war

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

denizz

8 months ago

u shld buy more yes thn

0

MisTKy

8 months ago

Also artillery