#3
Rank
3027
Comments
1098
Likes Received
367
Likes Given
Justifax
6 days ago
assume there are 25 parallel worlds, tulsi gets the nod in all of them except 1 imho.
trumptoshi
6 days ago
One of the founders of the DNI was Collins, her yes vote is very very very important. I don’t see Murk opposing her, and I don’t see Curtis risking being the only republican to vote No alongside the turtle. I even think there is a higher chance the Turtle votes yes. Change my mind.
Justifax
6 days ago
nah you are very likely right, but how right is the question we answer here
trumptoshi
6 days ago
One of the founders of the DNI was Collins, her yes vote is very very very important. I don’t see Murk opposing her, and I don’t see Curtis risking being the only republican to vote No alongside the turtle. I even think there is a higher chance the Turtle votes yes. Change my mind.
Justifax
6 days ago
https://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_votes/vote1191/vote_119_1_00048.htm cruz made the loefller vote, hmmmm
Justifax
1 week ago
Mike Huckabee level.. who knew
wassup...
1 week ago
so Tulsi is more likely than Kash and Lori now.
Justifax
1 week ago
yeh, rfk is probably the most disruptive thing Trump is doing so far
Justifax
1 week ago
the thing about rfk is how do dems not vote for the guy. he's like trying to reduce corporate influence over the food supply. something the left have been trying to do forever
Justifax
1 week ago
his position on vaccines is scientific and not dogmatic. yes, this means some uneducated people will doubt vaccines more, but maybe they should educated
Justifax
1 week ago
the thing about rfk is how do dems not vote for the guy. he's like trying to reduce corporate influence over the food supply. something the left have been trying to do forever
Justifax
1 week ago
the thing about rfk is how do dems not vote for the guy. he's like trying to reduce corporate influence over the food supply. something the left have been trying to do forever
Justifax
1 week ago
there is ev at 8% though, imho. but gun to head, she will get confirmed.
0x4395bF8fdBE6B3A7F30D26D7
1 week ago
Why did Tulsi’s odds go up so much. Does she have the votes to be confirmed with Collins voting yes?
Justifax
1 week ago
yes
0x4395bF8fdBE6B3A7F30D26D7
1 week ago
Why did Tulsi’s odds go up so much. Does she have the votes to be confirmed with Collins voting yes?
Justifax
1 week ago
Yeh, it's a bit high
0x4395bF8fdBE6B3A7F30D26D7
1 week ago
Why did Tulsi’s odds go up so much. Does she have the votes to be confirmed with Collins voting yes?
Justifax
1 week ago
yeah copytraders have got lazy thinking just betting blindly against maga because it paid out for them in the past
Flipadelphia
1 week ago
A reminder that if you had a pet monkey buying Yes on any vaguely trump affiliated market it would outperform 99% of Traders on this platform. GG Tulsi, copytraders hit hardest
Justifax
1 week ago
it's the full throated support. Collins is a cheer leader at this point. You'd have to be pretty RINO to vote left of Collins
Justifax
1 week ago
well the baserate still stands, nobody has lost on policy in 100 years
QuteAnon
1 week ago
So I was right that Tulsi was safer than RFK but I probably still lose lol
Justifax
1 week ago
Heh, you forgot to arb them
QuteAnon
1 week ago
So I was right that Tulsi was safer than RFK but I probably still lose lol
Justifax
1 week ago
it's not weird, it's because the copytraders are largely libtards who have been making a lot of money off maga enthusiasts past few years
nicekitty
1 week ago
Wild seeing so many people with positive pnl’s lose money on this question, and a number of people with negative pnl’s get into positive territory
Justifax
1 week ago
cnn was goat this time, imho. they called both collins and amplified rogin
Justifax
1 week ago
what's funny about this is that it was all announced by libtard journalists and the copytraders ignored it, usually they eat that shit up
Justifax
1 week ago
DNI just isn't the hill to die on, nobody cares
Justifax
1 week ago
eotd, this is why I flipped: "“The Office of the Director of National Intelligence … has become far larger than it was designed to be, and Ms. Gabbard shares my vision of returning the agency to its intended size.”
Justifax
1 week ago
eotd, this is why I flipped: "“The Office of the Director of National Intelligence … has become far larger than it was designed to be, and Ms. Gabbard shares my vision of returning the agency to its intended size.”
Justifax
1 week ago
ok now we need to get bernie to vote for tulsi and all will be good with the world
Justifax
1 week ago
aahahahah dumfuq copytraders
Justifax
1 week ago
a mulvaney type exit out of committee is not impossible
Justifax
1 week ago
The two have quite a history actually, so sure why not
Justifax
1 week ago
lol someone bought 490K bernie voting for Gabbard. https://polymarket.com/event/which-senators-will-vote-to-confirm-tulsi-gabbard?tid=1738562197543
Justifax
1 week ago
lol someone bought 490K bernie voting for Gabbard. https://polymarket.com/event/which-senators-will-vote-to-confirm-tulsi-gabbard?tid=1738562197543
Justifax
1 week ago
intel chair is more enthusiastic than health chair
QuteAnon
1 week ago
Gut tells me Gabbard is safer than RFK. Am I onto something here or just tarded?
Justifax
1 week ago
I just want to see the copytraders BTFO
Justifax
1 week ago
Lol.
trumptoshi
1 week ago
https://www.axios.com/2025/02/01/trump-tulsi-gabbard-senate-intelligence
Justifax
1 week ago
Nah, she'll probably lose confirmation just like all those other nominees throughout history that have lost votes because of aggressive questioning in the hearings.
trumptoshi
1 week ago
https://www.axios.com/2025/02/01/trump-tulsi-gabbard-senate-intelligence
Justifax
1 week ago
Woah, hold up. ""The president isn't really talking about pardoning Snowden, but if that's a guarantee they want to get Tulsi confirmed, the president will have those conversations," the White House adviser said."
trumptoshi
1 week ago
https://www.axios.com/2025/02/01/trump-tulsi-gabbard-senate-intelligence
Justifax
1 week ago
Yes, generally this is definitely true. Trump is quite unique however
Kysi
1 week ago
everyone holding a no is either a swing trader or delusional, the hearings are just theater and good for media clickbait titles, its all predetermined behind closed doors long ago
Justifax
1 week ago
I dunno, 50 50 seems reasonable. Last time a nominee lost on policy was 100 years ago. If they don't flame out on some personal failing, it'd be pretty rare for them to lose otherwise
worldkoala
1 week ago
Gabbard seems more at risk than this market implies. It looks like too many no holders wanting to get out of their positions are holding it down.
Justifax
1 week ago
Not sure about the floor vote, but I'd be surprised at this point if she doesn't make it out of committee ..https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2025/02/01/exclusive-tom-cotton-dismisses-media-speculation-confirmations-not-making-it-through/
Justifax
1 week ago
How come?
MtrxZ
1 week ago
After more than 3 years on polymarket degen gambling with you, my time has come. I made friends and enemy along the way, made and lost money, saw people lose their life savings and other win enough to retire. I had a great time. But all good things come to an end. I leave polymarket today. Goodbye.
Justifax
1 week ago
https://www.aol.com/hawley-gabbard-nomination-may-jeopardy-130400187.html 50 50
Justifax
1 week ago
Well, I guess if they don't confirm his noms, he could just start firing everyone
Justifax
1 week ago
maga vrs the copy traders, who will win
Justifax
1 week ago
He alsoo promised he'd put a libertarian in his cabinet. He's delivering on all of his promises.
trumptoshi
1 week ago
https://youtube.com/shorts/3tUbct-WUiI?feature=shared More pressure from Vance.
Justifax
1 week ago
Trump isn't a traitor, he's a jingoist who subscribes to Machiavellian political philosophy.
trumptoshi
1 week ago
https://youtube.com/shorts/3tUbct-WUiI?feature=shared More pressure from Vance.
Justifax
1 week ago
there is a 3rd way, confirm but damage tulsi so much she has zero suction with the ic
Justifax
1 week ago
kinda hoping and vibing murk will vote yes for gabbard. girl power!
Justifax
1 week ago
curtis, mitch, probably murk, and who else? if collins is sounding positive AND votes yes, seems unlikely no on the floor
Justifax
1 week ago
maybe young, using the secret vote as cover for why he changed his mind
Justifax
1 week ago
curtis, mitch, probably murk, and who else? if collins is sounding positive AND votes yes, seems unlikely no on the floor
Justifax
1 week ago
curtis, mitch, probably murk, and who else? if collins is sounding positive AND votes yes, seems unlikely no on the floor
Justifax
1 week ago
sounds like more projection.
Justifax
1 week ago
people complain about my posts, but you'll find there is a very high correlation of volume and my posting. posting news and links and alpha gets a lot of people coming to polymarket and involved.
Justifax
1 week ago
you are probably a scammer, so that means everyone else is. it's a moral imperative, gambling without providing context to me feels like something only the most worthless people in the world would do
Justifax
1 week ago
people complain about my posts, but you'll find there is a very high correlation of volume and my posting. posting news and links and alpha gets a lot of people coming to polymarket and involved.
Justifax
1 week ago
anyone who bets on poly has some degree of adhd
Justifax
1 week ago
people complain about my posts, but you'll find there is a very high correlation of volume and my posting. posting news and links and alpha gets a lot of people coming to polymarket and involved.
Justifax
1 week ago
people complain about my posts, but you'll find there is a very high correlation of volume and my posting. posting news and links and alpha gets a lot of people coming to polymarket and involved.
Justifax
1 week ago
it's possible folks are reticent to say anything because they don't want to leak what was said in the scif. any delta between their public comments and now can be used to determine sciff report. so cornyn's very brief 'i consent' makes sense.
Justifax
1 week ago
curtis is very cheap in the other market, if so
Justifax
1 week ago
collins is a yes in committee, probably floor too. this is very 50 50 for tulsi though. curtis could easily go sideways
Justifax
1 week ago
as always, keep an eye on k8lshi, manifold, the other markets on poly. not huge alpha, but some
Justifax
1 week ago
collins is a yes in committee, probably floor too. this is very 50 50 for tulsi though. curtis could easily go sideways
Justifax
1 week ago
no they are from the 21st
Justifax
1 week ago
lol 2 junior reports write a hit piece at wapo without any new info, oh noes
Justifax
1 week ago
something to keep in mind, dni is not a very consequential role
Justifax
1 week ago
again, lead wapo security analyst journo at wapo says tulsi is winning the committee vote: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W0gQ4fhoKMQ
Justifax
1 week ago
he said it twice, in fact
Justifax
1 week ago
again, lead wapo security analyst journo at wapo says tulsi is winning the committee vote: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W0gQ4fhoKMQ
Justifax
1 week ago
again, lead wapo security analyst journo at wapo says tulsi is winning the committee vote: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W0gQ4fhoKMQ
Justifax
1 week ago
this is all old shit from the 21st repurposed, clearly you're not a reader
Justifax
1 week ago
lol 2 junior reports write a hit piece at wapo without any new info, oh noes
Justifax
1 week ago
lol 2 junior reports write a hit piece at wapo without any new info, oh noes
Justifax
1 week ago
lol not exactly ringing, but i'll stick with rogin
LibtardTM
1 week ago
https://x.com/JohnCornyn/status/1885128027257839627
Justifax
1 week ago
yeh, gabbard is a maverick
LibtardTM
1 week ago
https://x.com/MeghanMcCain/status/1885055621315080368
Justifax
1 week ago
strauss is weird though, cause i think everyone hated hiim
Justifax
1 week ago
again, the baserate is brutal for no. it's been 100 years since a candidate lost on policy
Justifax
1 week ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unsuccessful_nominations_to_the_Cabinet_of_the_United_States
Justifax
1 week ago
again, the baserate is brutal for no. it's been 100 years since a candidate lost on policy
Justifax
1 week ago
again, the baserate is brutal for no. it's been 100 years since a candidate lost on policy
Justifax
1 week ago
rogin, these degens have no faith in you. don't fail me buddy
Justifax
1 week ago
yeh murk and mitch seem unlikely
Justifax
1 week ago
cnn is saying collins is making positive noises https://x.com/mkraju/status/1885122910458667363 crazy
Justifax
1 week ago
rogin is literally paid his salary to have sources and report on them. failing here on tv would be a very bad career move
Justifax
1 week ago
Josh rogin, wapo security analyst, states his sources say she won't lose any votes in committee. hattip trumptoshi below
Justifax
1 week ago
cnn is saying collins is making positive noises https://x.com/mkraju/status/1885122910458667363 crazy
Justifax
1 week ago
actually, shit, this takes out collins, so would need 2 votes after murk and mitch
Justifax
1 week ago
voting yes to approve in committee and publicly no on the floor would be weird, imho. if it was like the mulvaney vote, that's different. imho, the 4th vote is going to have to come from a curtis or something
Justifax
1 week ago
voting yes to approve in committee and publicly no on the floor would be weird, imho. if it was like the mulvaney vote, that's different. imho, the 4th vote is going to have to come from a curtis or something
Justifax
1 week ago
be quite surprised if this doesn't get out of committee, rogin kinda put his rep on the line here. journalists quote anon sources all the time and if they fail, than the journo fails as well
Justifax
1 week ago
gop votes, obv
Justifax
1 week ago
Josh rogin, wapo security analyst, states his sources say she won't lose any votes in committee. hattip trumptoshi below
Justifax
1 week ago
Josh rogin, wapo security analyst, states his sources say she won't lose any votes in committee. hattip trumptoshi below
Justifax
1 week ago
I haven't really changed my opinion. I just think this is more 50 50
Justifax
1 week ago
Cornyn was difficult in the hearing. His yes vote also matters because by announcing it, he is helping publicizing any No votes. Basically breaking the secrecy rule and putting pressure
Justifax
1 week ago
Cornyn was difficult in the hearing. His yes vote also matters because by announcing it, he is helping publicizing any No votes. Basically breaking the secrecy rule and putting pressure
Justifax
1 week ago
Wild stuff, for real. https://x.com/cgtnamerica/status/1885128964592546292 Imho, this should be more 50 50
Justifax
1 week ago
White trash culture is just as bad if not worse than inner city culture. Eg, mtg
Justifax
1 week ago
The penalty for treason in the US is the death penalty. Did they seriously think Tulsi was supposed to be judge jury and executioner in that confirmation hearing? IMHO, Bennet really came off as one of those newbie inner city congress critters who only get elected because they shout a lot. I was totally embarrassed for the guy
Justifax
1 week ago
Secret vote issue doesn't matter and changes nothing. But yes, several republicans were clearly not supportive.
n/a
1 week ago
Very clear Tulsi is toast. Many GOP senators (not just Collins) were as hostile to her as Democrats and showing smirks, teaching the definition of a "traitor", asking about her basic allegiances, etc. And that was the public hearing - think what happened in the closed one... My take is that everyone knows that Tulsi will be voted down, including Tulsi herself, so she was auditioning not for DNI but for her next anchor job at Newsmax, OAN or another wacky MAGA channel. That's why also she refused to tell that Snowden is a traitor. Why else would she... It's even likely that the committee vote against her, in secret, won't just be 9-8 but maybe 11-6 or more, to make it perfectly clear that there is no path for her on the Senate floor and at the same time keep the names of those who voted her down secret from MAGA reprisals. And Trump will probably be too busy with his tariffs and their fallout on markets around that moment to bother...
Justifax
1 week ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unsuccessful_nominations_to_the_Cabinet_of_the_United_States OK, 100 years. Warren in 1925
Justifax
1 week ago
If Tulsi is voted down it'd be the first nominee to lose based on policy in like 200 years or something crazy like that.
Justifax
1 week ago
White trash culture is just as bad if not worse than inner city culture. Eg, mtg
Justifax
1 week ago
The penalty for treason in the US is the death penalty. Did they seriously think Tulsi was supposed to be judge jury and executioner in that confirmation hearing? IMHO, Bennet really came off as one of those newbie inner city congress critters who only get elected because they shout a lot. I was totally embarrassed for the guy
Justifax
1 week ago
it's more a cultural than a racist thing. There are many very bright african americans who didn't grow up in the inner city or adopt that culture.
Justifax
1 week ago
The penalty for treason in the US is the death penalty. Did they seriously think Tulsi was supposed to be judge jury and executioner in that confirmation hearing? IMHO, Bennet really came off as one of those newbie inner city congress critters who only get elected because they shout a lot. I was totally embarrassed for the guy
Justifax
1 week ago
If they do vote her down, I hope they are respectful in their statements.
Justifax
1 week ago
The penalty for treason in the US is the death penalty. Did they seriously think Tulsi was supposed to be judge jury and executioner in that confirmation hearing? IMHO, Bennet really came off as one of those newbie inner city congress critters who only get elected because they shout a lot. I was totally embarrassed for the guy
Justifax
1 week ago
I agree Tulsi is not an optimal candidate, but she handled herself very well in the face of completely unreasonable people. That alone takes nerves of steel and a useful quality for DNI when everything is going crazy.
Justifax
1 week ago
The penalty for treason in the US is the death penalty. Did they seriously think Tulsi was supposed to be judge jury and executioner in that confirmation hearing? IMHO, Bennet really came off as one of those newbie inner city congress critters who only get elected because they shout a lot. I was totally embarrassed for the guy
Justifax
1 week ago
The penalty for treason in the US is the death penalty. Did they seriously think Tulsi was supposed to be judge jury and executioner in that confirmation hearing? IMHO, Bennet really came off as one of those newbie inner city congress critters who only get elected because they shout a lot. I was totally embarrassed for the guy
Justifax
1 week ago
Senators just jelly of how successful she's been
Justifax
1 week ago
Hope Tulsi gets confirmed, but not super optimistic. I thought she rocked it
Justifax
1 week ago
Hope Tulsi gets confirmed, but not super optimistic. I thought she rocked it
Justifax
1 week ago
But but Lincoln is the #1 rated US president!! Lol
Justifax
1 week ago
Lincoln's first plan was to mass deport african slaves. But when they started dying en masse in Haiti he gave up on that plan.
Justifax
1 week ago
Lincoln's first plan was to mass deport african slaves. But when they started dying en masse in Haiti he gave up on that plan.
Justifax
1 week ago
just want to get lei'd
Justifax
1 week ago
the snowden thing is super weird choice to freak out about. it's literally why trump appointed her, to protect against 4th amendment violations
Justifax
1 week ago
the snowden thing is super weird choice to freak out about. it's literally why trump appointed her, to protect against 4th amendment violations
Justifax
1 week ago
it's like dems are whining 'this is not entertainment tv' and then bennet goes and pulls that shit. lol. they are all psychopathic liars
Justifax
1 week ago
love Tulsi, love her. But geez these dudes are grinding her
Justifax
1 week ago
she's killing it
Justifax
2 weeks ago
not ignoring withdraw. reason is nom votes don't fail is prez withdraws first. if he new tulsi would fail, he would have withdrawn her like gaetz
Justifax
2 weeks ago
best yes argument: only 2 failed noms in last 70 years, best no: new orleans
Justifax
2 weeks ago
How do you have the time to worry about why i have the time?
Justifax
2 weeks ago
the more i look into the dni role, the more i realize that any vote against her will be more performative than for any real reason.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
Just how I roll man. It's a good sign we have free speech
Justifax
2 weeks ago
the more i look into the dni role, the more i realize that any vote against her will be more performative than for any real reason.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
sure, gabbard has issues, but wow the dni role seems pointless
Justifax
2 weeks ago
the more i look into the dni role, the more i realize that any vote against her will be more performative than for any real reason.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
the more i look into the dni role, the more i realize that any vote against her will be more performative than for any real reason.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
but yeah, it's funny how pointless dni is given they don't really have any real accountability
Justifax
2 weeks ago
best yes argument: only 2 failed noms in last 70 years, best no: new orleans
Justifax
2 weeks ago
sure fbi and dhs are responsible tactically for new orleans, but i think the argument will be that given it happened they need a dni that can help proactively ensure that doesn't happen again
Justifax
2 weeks ago
best yes argument: only 2 failed noms in last 70 years, best no: new orleans
Justifax
2 weeks ago
best yes argument: only 2 failed noms in last 70 years, best no: new orleans
Justifax
2 weeks ago
Lol, leftwing media must be pro Tulsi or something. They literally don't realize how much they are helping her.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
Yeh, the baserate is pretty scary for the no case. Nominees that get this far never lose, except in two cases in the last 70 years.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
A sorta problem with the NO case for Gabbard. Nobody takes DNI seriously. So why would Senators spend political capital on voting her down? Flip side: Might be a good show that does little to damage Trump.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
Her job is to influence the president, but for real, he has shown on the issue of intel he can't really be influenced. So really, they'd just be voting for a paper trail of sorts I guess. Which is something. Also, of course, Tulsi would have access to all intel I suspect. Seems odd if they kept secrets from the DNI
Justifax
2 weeks ago
A sorta problem with the NO case for Gabbard. Nobody takes DNI seriously. So why would Senators spend political capital on voting her down? Flip side: Might be a good show that does little to damage Trump.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
A sorta problem with the NO case for Gabbard. Nobody takes DNI seriously. So why would Senators spend political capital on voting her down? Flip side: Might be a good show that does little to damage Trump.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
What's interesting though is calibrating Media and their portrayal of RFK versus say Gabbard. Clearly they love spicing things up
Justifax
2 weeks ago
Fwiw, k-street always saw RFK as the most likely to be confirmed of all of Trump's set of wild noms..
Justifax
2 weeks ago
They should just put testosterone in the water supply and get it over with. I mean, come on already.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
Oh yeah, all about the hearings at this point. Will try to realtime market make.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
More NYT hit pieces. I wonder if they realize this probably ups her chances of confirmation. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/28/us/politics/tulsi-gabbard-trump-intel-pick-watch-list.html
Justifax
2 weeks ago
For Collins to reject her because she's not qualified is one thing, for her to reject her because of NYT hit piece is something else.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
More NYT hit pieces. I wonder if they realize this probably ups her chances of confirmation. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/28/us/politics/tulsi-gabbard-trump-intel-pick-watch-list.html
Justifax
2 weeks ago
Hmm normally you might be right, but I think Trump is using a Tulsi rejection as a potential weapon against the 'deep state'. This is playing very well into his narrative control.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
More NYT hit pieces. I wonder if they realize this probably ups her chances of confirmation. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/28/us/politics/tulsi-gabbard-trump-intel-pick-watch-list.html
Justifax
2 weeks ago
More NYT hit pieces. I wonder if they realize this probably ups her chances of confirmation. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/28/us/politics/tulsi-gabbard-trump-intel-pick-watch-list.html
Justifax
2 weeks ago
Good stuff, most def seeing this play out.
MalikNabers
2 weeks ago
I like how people initially bumped tulsi on news they could try to appoint her without passing committee… when really the admission that she is very shaky to pass committee at all. Which is awful news for her.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
https://www.c-span.org/event/senate-committee/director-of-natl-intelligence-nominee-tulsi-gabbard-testifies-at-confirmation-hearing/430423
Justifax
2 weeks ago
https://www.c-span.org/event/senate-committee/hhs-sec-nominee-rfk-jr-testifies-at-confirmation-hearing/430405
Justifax
2 weeks ago
Very 50 50 at this point. Should be an interesting hearing tho
Justifax
2 weeks ago
My issues with the RFK notards is they aren't very committed. :(
Justifax
2 weeks ago
I'd like to buy RFK YES but it's too expensive.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
My issues with the RFK notards is they aren't very committed. :(
Justifax
2 weeks ago
My issues with the RFK notards is they aren't very committed. :(
Justifax
2 weeks ago
Except this isn't news. Caroline had already spoken out against RFK Jr at length.
garbohydrates
2 weeks ago
Jack Schlossberg and his mom, Caroline, just dropped a nuke of a video exposing RFK. He might be cooked. https://x.com/jbkschlossberg/status/1884294384474046900
Justifax
2 weeks ago
The question really is did they tell Trump to drop her and he ignored him thinking he could force her through or something? I dunno
Justifax
2 weeks ago
Flip side, of course, Tulsi is most def a risk for ignoring Russian election interference which could be a step too far for some republican senators. Should be interesting.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
Flip side, of course, Tulsi is most def a risk for ignoring Russian election interference which could be a step too far for some republican senators. Should be interesting.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
I think this is what it is all boiling down to in the end. Folks are worried Tulsi will ignore Russian election interference and bots. OK, but I don't think that is a secret and was obviously the reason for her appointment in the beginning. If they had a problem with it, they should have said it in the beginning instead of dragging it out. Marco might have been the compromise as he weilds very significant influence over NATO and he is most def a hawk.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
I think also that the senators on intel have to appreciate that Marco is in state. He will draw the necessary red lines that ensure that the US does not compromise beyond what it should.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
lol, 'secret', right.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
My guess is if Tulsi doesn't make it out of committee, it won't be because of Collins alone.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
I think also that the senators on intel have to appreciate that Marco is in state. He will draw the necessary red lines that ensure that the US does not compromise beyond what it should.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
So my general sense is that the Senators on intel have to look at this with clear eyes. They have to see Trump's popular vote. They have to realize that a part of that mandate was to bring peace to the world. Tulsi is compromised, not explicitly, but implicitly - sure, but sometimes we have to make compromises to avoid endless and unnecessary conflict.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
There is that o'reilly thing, but meh
Justifax
2 weeks ago
I was trying to think of why and why not Tulsi will be nominated. All issues aside, I think it largely comes down to the Russian question. Tulsi is not in some explicit conspiracy with Russia, I can promise you that, but I think she realizes that the narratives are backing her play as long as she espouses certain view points. And this is quite profitable for her, most likely. Any other read would be gullible. The question really is, will this help segue into peace? Isn't that part of Trump's mandate, to bring peace to the the Ukraine Russian war?
Justifax
2 weeks ago
https://punchbowl.news/wp-content/uploads/The-Canvass-Gabbard.pdf https://www.ft.com/content/d1128fd7-f5f0-45b0-9a05-1b7c63cdb1a4 All I got
Justifax
2 weeks ago
I was trying to think of why and why not Tulsi will be nominated. All issues aside, I think it largely comes down to the Russian question. Tulsi is not in some explicit conspiracy with Russia, I can promise you that, but I think she realizes that the narratives are backing her play as long as she espouses certain view points. And this is quite profitable for her, most likely. Any other read would be gullible. The question really is, will this help segue into peace? Isn't that part of Trump's mandate, to bring peace to the the Ukraine Russian war?
Justifax
2 weeks ago
I was trying to think of why and why not Tulsi will be nominated. All issues aside, I think it largely comes down to the Russian question. Tulsi is not in some explicit conspiracy with Russia, I can promise you that, but I think she realizes that the narratives are backing her play as long as she espouses certain view points. And this is quite profitable for her, most likely. Any other read would be gullible. The question really is, will this help segue into peace? Isn't that part of Trump's mandate, to bring peace to the the Ukraine Russian war?
Justifax
2 weeks ago
nah
supertantrum
2 weeks ago
Stop yapping
Justifax
2 weeks ago
And say what you will about the bots, the reality is that https://ucdp.uu.se/exploratory is undeniable. Millions have died in the Ukraine war. And for what, really? In Crimea they were all russians anyways and any study of voting history will make you realize that eastern Ukraine had a largely pro-russian populace. What was the point of all this death? Russia is to blame, of course, but I don't think I'd put the blame on all those stupid russian kids that got dragged into the meat grinder.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
I am largely a pacifist and dislike war of all kinds, though I understand the theory of peace through strength. I have a very difficult time with the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but I also like to remind people that the US very stupidly invaded Iraq and likely in many ways set the stage for the invasion of Ukraine. Where does this end? I think it's fair to say that there are very likely forces at play which are supporting narratives in social media, and the one I just provided is one you've likely heard before. A lot of it is propaganda, for sure, but propaganda is coming from all sides. There are a lot of actors here which are making bad choices. At some point, you have to navigate your way through it and pick the least worst option. It's not that we are falling victim to the bots in some gullible way - we are just realizing that some sacrifices will need to be made to attain a degree of peace.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
Now imagine, for a moment, that you are a politician in the land of modern social media. And furthermore, imagine that this media is littered with bots promoting various narratives. Can you think of a way to get those bots working for you without actually asking them to?
Justifax
2 weeks ago
I've often said the only way to do a conspiracy is via the 'implicit' quid pro quo. Anything else is very incompetent. Leaving smoking gun trails will just incriminate you. I've seen this in corporate settings where people will back your play but if you expressively ask them to they'll roll their eyes. Blagojevich is famous for stupidly trying to explicitly sell a senate seat. But really, his only crime was he said the quiet part outloud. Every other governor knows how to do those deals without actually having to say the words.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
Odds are pretty high she will if one of the others does. She won't do it alone tho
Justifax
2 weeks ago
My guess is if Tulsi doesn't make it out of committee, it won't be because of Collins alone.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
So really you're betting one of the other republicans votes her down. Young, Cornyn, Risch.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
My guess is if Tulsi doesn't make it out of committee, it won't be because of Collins alone.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
My guess is if Tulsi doesn't make it out of committee, it won't be because of Collins alone.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
Come on brucey baby, you engaged. Tell us who you think will be confirmed.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
yeh the other markets price weirdly on a frequent basis, but thin books. Great op for more market makers tho!
Kysi
2 weeks ago
the other rfk market is undervalued, trump said he will use recess appointments if necessary either way tomorrow we will se
Justifax
2 weeks ago
And gukesh on the championship. I'm like a savant.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
It's possible that Trump isn't actually serious about Tulsi or RFK and is only delivering on his promise of a cabinet position. Tulsi in DNI would make sense because she is so unsuitable and this gives Trump an out when she's not confirmed. RFK too perhaps.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
Also, you're wrong on the chess thing. I literally called all the winners for blitz and rapid.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
It's possible that Trump isn't actually serious about Tulsi or RFK and is only delivering on his promise of a cabinet position. Tulsi in DNI would make sense because she is so unsuitable and this gives Trump an out when she's not confirmed. RFK too perhaps.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
I literally said I agree with Tulsi on her views. Are you arguing against that?
Justifax
2 weeks ago
It's possible that Trump isn't actually serious about Tulsi or RFK and is only delivering on his promise of a cabinet position. Tulsi in DNI would make sense because she is so unsuitable and this gives Trump an out when she's not confirmed. RFK too perhaps.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
Which part are you arguing against? The part where I said I don't actually believe it?
Justifax
2 weeks ago
It's possible that Trump isn't actually serious about Tulsi or RFK and is only delivering on his promise of a cabinet position. Tulsi in DNI would make sense because she is so unsuitable and this gives Trump an out when she's not confirmed. RFK too perhaps.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
Lul
Justifax
2 weeks ago
Wyn, what is your game. It's like you post the most clueless stuff in order to suck people in to fading you
Justifax
2 weeks ago
Another sign of your gullbility is you don't realize is that the OP is scamming you by not telling you what his alpha really is and instead is just making up bullshit.
BuckMySalls
2 weeks ago
rfk to get through because fat and unhealthy americans are a business. tulsi to get smacked down because going against the intel community makes you a traitor. its as simple as that folks.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
People who attribute pnl volume ratio are totally clueless. You can generate millions of volume in minutes on poly. What matters, if you knew anything about investing, is the various indicators of smooth portfolio growth. Car, as much as a scammer as he is, is one of the best traders on poly. In fact, more volume can lead to smoother, more predictable growth. Which is what you want. Not survivorship bias which is what your pnl volume ratio indicates.
BuckMySalls
2 weeks ago
rfk to get through because fat and unhealthy americans are a business. tulsi to get smacked down because going against the intel community makes you a traitor. its as simple as that folks.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
Gabbard has one thing going for her, other than Trump’s support. She’ll be introduced at her confirmation hearing by former Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.), who chaired the Senate Intelligence Committee before he retired from Congress in 2023. Burr, who voted to convict Trump in his 2021 Senate impeachment trial following the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on Congress, is well liked by GOP senators, and his support for Gabbard could calm his party’s nerves. https://uk.news.yahoo.com/donald-trump-most-controversial-cabinet-104516553.html
Justifax
2 weeks ago
It would be wild!
Justifax
2 weeks ago
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-recess-appointments-adjourning-congress/ I mean, it's interesting I guess. I'm sure trump would love to try something like this. Not sure he could get votes in the house for it though, and that's ignoring SCOTUS ruling against him later on. I mean, again, 53 to 47 majority. Recess should not be required, plus all the top security folks have been confirmed.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-recess-appointments-adjourning-congress/ I mean, it's interesting I guess. I'm sure trump would love to try something like this. Not sure he could get votes in the house for it though, and that's ignoring SCOTUS ruling against him later on. I mean, again, 53 to 47 majority. Recess should not be required, plus all the top security folks have been confirmed.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
and for real, Trump has a 53 to 47 majority. If he can't get his people in clearly there is a problem
Justifax
2 weeks ago
McConnell to step down as U.S. Senate GOP leader but ... Nebraska Examiner Nov 21, 2024 - Kentucky Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell announced Thursday he'll become chairman of the Defense Appropriations Subcommittee and the Rules Committee. They were preprared for any nonsense on recess appts. SCOTUS has blocked this nonsense before and will block it again. Senate is advise and consent all the way.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/supreme-court-limits-presidents-appointments-power/
Justifax
2 weeks ago
McConnell to step down as U.S. Senate GOP leader but ... Nebraska Examiner Nov 21, 2024 - Kentucky Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell announced Thursday he'll become chairman of the Defense Appropriations Subcommittee and the Rules Committee. They were preprared for any nonsense on recess appts. SCOTUS has blocked this nonsense before and will block it again. Senate is advise and consent all the way.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
McConnell to step down as U.S. Senate GOP leader but ... Nebraska Examiner Nov 21, 2024 - Kentucky Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell announced Thursday he'll become chairman of the Defense Appropriations Subcommittee and the Rules Committee. They were preprared for any nonsense on recess appts. SCOTUS has blocked this nonsense before and will block it again. Senate is advise and consent all the way.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
Yeh, won't happen. Mitch is in rules and scotus will block.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
for the guy who posted the the o'reilly "alpha" - google bill o'reilly why-pete-hegseth-will-not-be-secretary-of-defense
Justifax
2 weeks ago
It's a peculiar strategy though as I think it undermines his image of being Influential and powerful, so I dunno if I actually believe it.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
It's possible that Trump isn't actually serious about Tulsi or RFK and is only delivering on his promise of a cabinet position. Tulsi in DNI would make sense because she is so unsuitable and this gives Trump an out when she's not confirmed. RFK too perhaps.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
It's possible that Trump isn't actually serious about Tulsi or RFK and is only delivering on his promise of a cabinet position. Tulsi in DNI would make sense because she is so unsuitable and this gives Trump an out when she's not confirmed. RFK too perhaps.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
for the guy who posted the the o'reilly "alpha" - google bill o'reilly why-pete-hegseth-will-not-be-secretary-of-defense
Justifax
2 weeks ago
Lol: https://www.forbes.com/sites/lisettevoytko/2020/02/05/the-five-times-susan-collins-has-actually-been-a-swing-vote/
Justifax
2 weeks ago
Also, media loves a good story. Plus I think they're trying to front run polymarket, which is fucking stupid.
trumptoshi
2 weeks ago
Justifax why did you sell again bud?
Justifax
2 weeks ago
I honestly have no secret alpha. I've posted everything I know. Baserate analysis is that nobody has lost a vote since 1989 and then 1959 before that. Letting Trump have his DNI of choice probably isn't going to be the EOTWD given Ratcliffe is in CIA and Trump just wants Tulsi to be a counterpoint and not much else
trumptoshi
2 weeks ago
Justifax why did you sell again bud?
Justifax
2 weeks ago
Fredi did that as well. Very clever rope a dope.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
Wyn, what is your game. It's like you post the most clueless stuff in order to suck people in to fading you
Justifax
2 weeks ago
Wyn is probably some deep insider and he posts dumb shit in order to disguise this and get people to buy NO
Justifax
2 weeks ago
Wyn, what is your game. It's like you post the most clueless stuff in order to suck people in to fading you
Justifax
2 weeks ago
Wyn, what is your game. It's like you post the most clueless stuff in order to suck people in to fading you
Justifax
2 weeks ago
I'm trying to maintain my savant like record of paper handling. I honestly think there is no equal on Polymarket to my ability to sell the winners.
trumptoshi
2 weeks ago
Justifax why did you sell again bud?
Justifax
2 weeks ago
He was artificially suppressing the price for real. Not so much anymore.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
Justifax tip: When you see a top holder with like 5x the next holder, that's usually a good fade.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
If anything, this could force Collins to vote NO because she can't appear to be bullied.
jj1970jj
2 weeks ago
Clearly insiders are worried about Gabbard because they are trying to get Cotton to change the rules in the committee and make the vote public to try and shame Collins into voting yes. I know this article is several hours old, but I was about to go Tulsi green and now I am back to I dont think I am ready yet... https://www.politico.com/news/2025/01/27/tulsi-gabbard-senate-intelligence-committee-vote-006977
Justifax
2 weeks ago
This seems like stupid drama. Colins has already telegraphed her vote. Like nobody would know?
jj1970jj
2 weeks ago
Clearly insiders are worried about Gabbard because they are trying to get Cotton to change the rules in the committee and make the vote public to try and shame Collins into voting yes. I know this article is several hours old, but I was about to go Tulsi green and now I am back to I dont think I am ready yet... https://www.politico.com/news/2025/01/27/tulsi-gabbard-senate-intelligence-committee-vote-006977
Justifax
2 weeks ago
Justifax tip: When you see a top holder with like 5x the next holder, that's usually a good fade.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
Grok, Kash Patel: Best Effort Probability Estimation: Considering both the support from Senate Republicans, the lack of explicit opposition, and the reported increase in betting odds, a reasonable estimation would place the likelihood of Kash Patel's confirmation somewhere between 50% to 70%. This range accounts for the political dynamics, the influence of party loyalty in the Senate, and the potential for last-minute shifts in political support or opposition.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
Grok, RFK: Based on the mixed reception and the critical stance of many health professionals and some political figures, a moderate estimation would place his likelihood of confirmation at around 30-40%. This considers the Republican control of the Senate, which might help his nomination, tempered by significant opposition from health experts and potentially some bipartisan political resistance
Justifax
2 weeks ago
Grok: Best Effort Probability Estimation: Considering the opposition from key Republican senators, the vocal concerns from the intelligence community, and her own performance in preparatory meetings, the likelihood of Gabbard's confirmation seems to be less than 50%. If we estimate, without precise data, it might hover around a 40% chance. This estimation assumes that the current trends and reported sentiments remain unchanged and that no significant political maneuvers occur to either sway more senators or mitigate the concerns raised by her critics.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
lol panic
Justifax
2 weeks ago
Lol, no clue if this helps or harms her chances.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
This is crazy. "Tulsi Gabbard was allegedly placed on a terror watchlist and subject to surveillance - then President Trump nominated her to oversee the intelligence community as Director of National Intelligence (DNI). Gabbard will work to 'end the politicization of the intelligence community,” her team told the Caller." https://dailycaller.com/2025/01/27/tulsi-gabbard-quiet-skies-tsa-whistleblowers/ The caller was founded by Tucker.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
This is crazy. "Tulsi Gabbard was allegedly placed on a terror watchlist and subject to surveillance - then President Trump nominated her to oversee the intelligence community as Director of National Intelligence (DNI). Gabbard will work to 'end the politicization of the intelligence community,” her team told the Caller." https://dailycaller.com/2025/01/27/tulsi-gabbard-quiet-skies-tsa-whistleblowers/ The caller was founded by Tucker.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
No game man, I just pumped Tulsi NO a lot and I don't want to be accused of pumping and dumping when and if I sell the rest. Also, I like Tulsi. Just because we think she's a bad fit for DNI doesn't mean we need to attack her.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
https://x.com/TomCottonAR I agree, Tulsi is most def an out of box politician who doesn't subscribe to group think. But she has passed every clearance examination they've thrown at her. She's a patriot and quite likely right about pretty much everything she says. Knocking out Hussein ended up killing a lot of innocent Iraqi civilians. I suspect the same is going to happen with Assad gone.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
Just because Tulsi is ill fitted for DNI doesn't mean she's wrong about what she says and thinks.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
Tulsi's views on Russia are not really 'propaganda'. The US was pretty hostile when Russia tried to set up shop in Cuba, so it shouldn't have been a surprise that they got upset that NATO kept encroaching on their side of the world.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
Tulsi's views on Russia are not really 'propaganda'. The US was pretty hostile when Russia tried to set up shop in Cuba, so it shouldn't have been a surprise that they got upset that NATO kept encroaching on their side of the world.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
https://x.com/TomCottonAR I agree, Tulsi is most def an out of box politician who doesn't subscribe to group think. But she has passed every clearance examination they've thrown at her. She's a patriot and quite likely right about pretty much everything she says. Knocking out Hussein ended up killing a lot of innocent Iraqi civilians. I suspect the same is going to happen with Assad gone.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
I always do this, bro. It's my shtick.
n/a
2 weeks ago
Justifax you forgot your pils bro
Justifax
2 weeks ago
People need to be punished for stupidity, but not via dishonesty.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unsuccessful_nominations_to_the_Cabinet_of_the_United_States And before Tower in 1989, it was Strauss in 1959. This is a very rare thing. It's also worth mentioning that if people on Intel had an issue with Gabbard they probably would have told Trump to withdraw her nomination.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
Yeh, but if news is reporting us and we're reporting them, where does truth come in?
Justifax
2 weeks ago
The risk here is journalists are looking at the odds on polymarket and thinking they have alpha, so they report news that fits that alpha. When in reality it's not quite what is happening. There is still the base rate that no confirmation vote has failed since 1989.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
No, I am thinking of selling and don't want to be accused of pumping and dumping.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unsuccessful_nominations_to_the_Cabinet_of_the_United_States And before Tower in 1989, it was Strauss in 1959. This is a very rare thing. It's also worth mentioning that if people on Intel had an issue with Gabbard they probably would have told Trump to withdraw her nomination.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
I think you can blame them because prediction markets are based on their reporting. They're just creating a pointless echo chamber.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
The risk here is journalists are looking at the odds on polymarket and thinking they have alpha, so they report news that fits that alpha. When in reality it's not quite what is happening. There is still the base rate that no confirmation vote has failed since 1989.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unsuccessful_nominations_to_the_Cabinet_of_the_United_States And before Tower in 1989, it was Strauss in 1959. This is a very rare thing. It's also worth mentioning that if people on Intel had an issue with Gabbard they probably would have told Trump to withdraw her nomination.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
The risk here is journalists are looking at the odds on polymarket and thinking they have alpha, so they report news that fits that alpha. When in reality it's not quite what is happening. There is still the base rate that no confirmation vote has failed since 1989.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
This is the same problem as herding in polls. It weeds out all signal.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
https://www.ft.com/content/d1128fd7-f5f0-45b0-9a05-1b7c63cdb1a4 Lol, unreal. Idiot journalist. "Prediction market Polymarket gives Kennedy an 80 per cent chance of being confirmed, compared with almost 100 per cent for nominees such as Scott Bessent, Trump’s pick for Treasury secretary. Tulsi Gabbard, his nominee as intelligence director was on just 51 per cent." This shit has to stop, though I suppose it's a good filter on for which article to ignore as useless BS
Justifax
2 weeks ago
https://www.ft.com/content/d1128fd7-f5f0-45b0-9a05-1b7c63cdb1a4 Lol, unreal. Idiot journalist. "Prediction market Polymarket gives Kennedy an 80 per cent chance of being confirmed, compared with almost 100 per cent for nominees such as Scott Bessent, Trump’s pick for Treasury secretary. Tulsi Gabbard, his nominee as intelligence director was on just 51 per cent." This shit has to stop, though I suppose it's a good filter on for which article to ignore as useless BS
Justifax
2 weeks ago
Lol, no. I could never sock puppet. I typo constantly and anyone could easily detect it.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
I've noticed a lot of articles are reporting on Polymarket odds. This is wrong and is creating a useless echo chamber. Polymarket's job is to report on the news, not the other way around. Do your jobs and stop looking at poly.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
I think a lot of the news we're seeing could be echo chamber nonsense. Not reliable.
trumptoshi
2 weeks ago
Justifax? Wtf happened. Report to me.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
Yeh, high quality journalists are very rare.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
I've noticed a lot of articles are reporting on Polymarket odds. This is wrong and is creating a useless echo chamber. Polymarket's job is to report on the news, not the other way around. Do your jobs and stop looking at poly.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
I've noticed a lot of articles are reporting on Polymarket odds. This is wrong and is creating a useless echo chamber. Polymarket's job is to report on the news, not the other way around. Do your jobs and stop looking at poly.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
I read that about Cornyn. Link on the Risch thing? It's an interesting point. Tulsi had a tendency to be a huge bridge burner.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
https://ajcongress.org/jewishpoliticalguide/senators/tulsi-gabbard/
Justifax
2 weeks ago
Well, Collins is now reporting her written answers have her concerned. "But there are a lot of obvious issues. Her answers to the written questions were very hedged on it. I know there’s been a lot of reporting that she’s changed her position. That’s not how I read her answers. I read them as, ‘I’ll take a look at the reforms and see if they meet my concerns,’" she added. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/gabbard-s-path-through-intelligence-committee-narrows-ahead-of-key-hearing/ar-AA1xVWgJ My guess this is behind the drop in the market today.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
https://ajcongress.org/jewishpoliticalguide/senators/tulsi-gabbard/
Justifax
2 weeks ago
She should have been made ambassador to the UN elevated to a cabinet level position.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
https://ajcongress.org/jewishpoliticalguide/senators/tulsi-gabbard/
Justifax
2 weeks ago
I was very shocked by the 50-50 vote for Hegseth. I thought it was going to be 51 or 52. Tulsi, imho, is relatively a much greater stretch than Hegseth and a much easier no vote because nobody will care. DNI is a weird job that doesn't have any management power but is still massively consequential because the job is to assimilate the entire national intelligence gathering in one place. You're like the secretary the entire security of the nation depends on. I like and admire Tulsi, but she is probably the worst fit imaginable for this job. She is a media darling and has has great pacifist views that I agree with and a great respect for personal privacy. None of these qualities are good for DNI.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
https://ajcongress.org/jewishpoliticalguide/senators/tulsi-gabbard/
Justifax
2 weeks ago
https://ajcongress.org/jewishpoliticalguide/senators/susan-collins/
Justifax
2 weeks ago
https://ajcongress.org/jewishpoliticalguide/senators/tulsi-gabbard/
Justifax
2 weeks ago
Compare it to https://ajcongress.org/jewishpoliticalguide/senators/todd-young/
Justifax
2 weeks ago
https://ajcongress.org/jewishpoliticalguide/senators/tulsi-gabbard/
Justifax
2 weeks ago
There is only so much flip flopping and shape shifting people can stomach. Anyways, doesn't she support a two state solution? What's the issue exactly?
Justifax
2 weeks ago
https://ajcongress.org/jewishpoliticalguide/senators/tulsi-gabbard/
Justifax
2 weeks ago
https://ajcongress.org/jewishpoliticalguide/senators/tulsi-gabbard/
Justifax
2 weeks ago
Maybe you're right though. Still an interesting market, no?
Justifax
2 weeks ago
https://polymarket.com/event/which-senators-will-vote-to-confirm-tulsi-gabbard?tid=1738003141397 Please go on the discord and ask for Todd Young to be added.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
Lol, that ship has sailed dude. Look at his voting record.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
https://polymarket.com/event/which-senators-will-vote-to-confirm-tulsi-gabbard?tid=1738003141397 Please go on the discord and ask for Todd Young to be added.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
https://polymarket.com/event/which-senators-will-vote-to-confirm-tulsi-gabbard?tid=1738003141397 Please go on the discord and ask for Todd Young to be added.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
That said, I never had a problem with mask mandates. People who pushed back on that were pretty stupid, imho, and frankly hyper selfish. I mean, what's the fucking big deal. Oh noes I have to wear some cloth over my mouth.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
What I don't get is why RFK isn't higher. I mean, holy cow. The guy is super health fanatic and the whole anti-vaccine nonsense is totally false. He just wants people to stop knee jerk jumping down everyone's throats when they dare to commit the heresy of questioning the science of vaccines - a super critical step in the scientific process itself.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
I got the vaccine and so did everyone I know beyond some distant folks on the social network. But I think forcing people to get a vaccine that even it's biggest proponent said only slightly reduced transmission was really really stupid.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
What I don't get is why RFK isn't higher. I mean, holy cow. The guy is super health fanatic and the whole anti-vaccine nonsense is totally false. He just wants people to stop knee jerk jumping down everyone's throats when they dare to commit the heresy of questioning the science of vaccines - a super critical step in the scientific process itself.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
Yeah, I'm hoping for a 55+ vote count. :)
Justifax
2 weeks ago
What I don't get is why RFK isn't higher. I mean, holy cow. The guy is super health fanatic and the whole anti-vaccine nonsense is totally false. He just wants people to stop knee jerk jumping down everyone's throats when they dare to commit the heresy of questioning the science of vaccines - a super critical step in the scientific process itself.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
You're literally doing what everyone does. Knee jerk thinking about vaccines. It's why I think RFK will be a game changer for the better.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
What I don't get is why RFK isn't higher. I mean, holy cow. The guy is super health fanatic and the whole anti-vaccine nonsense is totally false. He just wants people to stop knee jerk jumping down everyone's throats when they dare to commit the heresy of questioning the science of vaccines - a super critical step in the scientific process itself.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
The covid mandate was super fucking stupid, imho. By far the worst act in the history of the democratic party. Biden did good things, that was not it.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
What I don't get is why RFK isn't higher. I mean, holy cow. The guy is super health fanatic and the whole anti-vaccine nonsense is totally false. He just wants people to stop knee jerk jumping down everyone's throats when they dare to commit the heresy of questioning the science of vaccines - a super critical step in the scientific process itself.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
https://www.reuters.com/article/fact-check/bill-gates-did-not-say-covid-19-vaccines-are-ineffective-idUSL1N2S7292/
Justifax
2 weeks ago
What I don't get is why RFK isn't higher. I mean, holy cow. The guy is super health fanatic and the whole anti-vaccine nonsense is totally false. He just wants people to stop knee jerk jumping down everyone's throats when they dare to commit the heresy of questioning the science of vaccines - a super critical step in the scientific process itself.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
“We didn’t have vaccines that block transmission. We got vaccines that help you with your health, but they only slightly reduce the transmission. So, we need a new way of doing the vaccines” (from timestamp, 27:25).
Justifax
2 weeks ago
What I don't get is why RFK isn't higher. I mean, holy cow. The guy is super health fanatic and the whole anti-vaccine nonsense is totally false. He just wants people to stop knee jerk jumping down everyone's throats when they dare to commit the heresy of questioning the science of vaccines - a super critical step in the scientific process itself.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
What people don't realize is that even Bill Gates admitted that the covid vaccine didn't stop covid from spreading. In particular because vaccinated people thought they weren't going to spread it, which ofc, they did.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
What I don't get is why RFK isn't higher. I mean, holy cow. The guy is super health fanatic and the whole anti-vaccine nonsense is totally false. He just wants people to stop knee jerk jumping down everyone's throats when they dare to commit the heresy of questioning the science of vaccines - a super critical step in the scientific process itself.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
What I don't get is why RFK isn't higher. I mean, holy cow. The guy is super health fanatic and the whole anti-vaccine nonsense is totally false. He just wants people to stop knee jerk jumping down everyone's throats when they dare to commit the heresy of questioning the science of vaccines - a super critical step in the scientific process itself.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
Early on there was some initial knee jerk noise that was very in flight and volatile.
MrNFT
2 weeks ago
tulsi is cooked
Justifax
2 weeks ago
In general, you can't read anything from the left here, because it's all biased nonsense with no signal.
MrNFT
2 weeks ago
tulsi is cooked
Justifax
2 weeks ago
Hegseth was never cooked. You unfortunately have been reading too much libtard media.
MrNFT
2 weeks ago
tulsi is cooked
Justifax
2 weeks ago
If you're looking for alpha you need to haunt google and twitter looking for breaking quotes from Todd Young. I will say check out his voting record and when his term expires.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
The lessons of incidents such as New Orleans and 911 is that, unfortunately, you need an aggressive DNI. Tulsi Gabbard met with the leaker of the pentagon papers and agreed that it was 'insane' for journalists to be charged for leaking intel. These are reasonable viewpoints, imho, but antithesis to the role she's being confirmed for.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
That's the question, of course. If they don't, this market goes to less than 30%.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
The lessons of incidents such as New Orleans and 911 is that, unfortunately, you need an aggressive DNI. Tulsi Gabbard met with the leaker of the pentagon papers and agreed that it was 'insane' for journalists to be charged for leaking intel. These are reasonable viewpoints, imho, but antithesis to the role she's being confirmed for.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
The problem is largely New Orleans. Senators voting for an anti-intel DNI risk being responsible for any lapses going forward.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
Saying that Hegeseth, a harvard and princeton educated avatar of MAGA, was the most controversial nominee is naive. Accusations of misogyny and drinking only confirmed he was an archetypical soldier. K-street lobbyists always saw him as 2nd most likely to be confirmed after RFK. Kash Patel is slightly more risky, and Tulsi Gabbard is far and away the most controversial. https://punchbowl.news/wp-content/uploads/The-Canvass-Gabbard.pdf
Justifax
2 weeks ago
The flip side to that is rejecting Tulsi would be less controversial than rejecting Pete.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
Saying that Hegeseth, a harvard and princeton educated avatar of MAGA, was the most controversial nominee is naive. Accusations of misogyny and drinking only confirmed he was an archetypical soldier. K-street lobbyists always saw him as 2nd most likely to be confirmed after RFK. Kash Patel is slightly more risky, and Tulsi Gabbard is far and away the most controversial. https://punchbowl.news/wp-content/uploads/The-Canvass-Gabbard.pdf
Justifax
2 weeks ago
https://punchbowl.news/wp-content/uploads/The-Canvass-Gabbard.pdf The majority of lobbyists said Pete would be confirmed. Majority say Tulsi will not. Pete is far less controversial.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
Saying that Hegeseth, a harvard and princeton educated avatar of MAGA, was the most controversial nominee is naive. Accusations of misogyny and drinking only confirmed he was an archetypical soldier. K-street lobbyists always saw him as 2nd most likely to be confirmed after RFK. Kash Patel is slightly more risky, and Tulsi Gabbard is far and away the most controversial. https://punchbowl.news/wp-content/uploads/The-Canvass-Gabbard.pdf
Justifax
2 weeks ago
The lessons of incidents such as New Orleans and 911 is that, unfortunately, you need an aggressive DNI. Tulsi Gabbard met with the leaker of the pentagon papers and agreed that it was 'insane' for journalists to be charged for leaking intel. These are reasonable viewpoints, imho, but antithesis to the role she's being confirmed for.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
Saying that Hegeseth, a harvard and princeton educated avatar of MAGA, was the most controversial nominee is naive. Accusations of misogyny and drinking only confirmed he was an archetypical soldier. K-street lobbyists always saw him as 2nd most likely to be confirmed after RFK. Kash Patel is slightly more risky, and Tulsi Gabbard is far and away the most controversial. https://punchbowl.news/wp-content/uploads/The-Canvass-Gabbard.pdf
Justifax
2 weeks ago
It's peace through strength, not peace through weakness. Issues of invasion of privacy, of course, need to be managed. Just like collateral damage from military action. But that is an internal compliance effort.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
Trump would be much better suited to have someone who is loyal and believes in the tactical superiority of sophisticated intelligence gathering. The problem with Tulsi isn't her pro-russian view points, it's her excusing of edward snowden. It's like trying to hire a pacifist as head of the DoD. Makes zero sense. You want someone who prioritizes lethality.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
Trump would be much better suited to have someone who is loyal and believes in the tactical superiority of sophisticated intelligence gathering. The problem with Tulsi isn't her pro-russian view points, it's her excusing of edward snowden. It's like trying to hire a pacifist as head of the DoD. Makes zero sense. You want someone who prioritizes lethality.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
If my intention was to buy further NO, I wouldn't have posted anything.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
https://punchbowl.news/wp-content/uploads/The-Canvass-Gabbard.pdf
Justifax
2 weeks ago
This senator is not one of the GangOfThree (GOT: Murk, Mitch, Collins) "Still, there is some unease. One Republican senator who has voted for all of Trump’s nominees so far said his colleagues will be wary of national security picks who “sound more like Tucker Carlson than a Republican,” referring to the hard-right conservative commentator who has been seen as friendly to U.S. adversaries such as Russian President Vladimir Putin. “We’ll only give so much,” said the senator, who spoke on condition of anonymity to describe the internal Senate thinking. “Because this is the future of the country. It’s not entertainment television.” https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/white-house-republicans-trump-nominees-political-consequences-rcna189288
Justifax
2 weeks ago
I mean, it is what it is.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
https://punchbowl.news/wp-content/uploads/The-Canvass-Gabbard.pdf
Justifax
2 weeks ago
Pete, at 25%, got through on a squeeker tie breaking vote.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
https://punchbowl.news/wp-content/uploads/The-Canvass-Gabbard.pdf
Justifax
2 weeks ago
https://punchbowl.news/wp-content/uploads/The-Canvass-Gabbard.pdf
Justifax
2 weeks ago
"Procedural hurdles: Republicans have a one-seat majority on the panel, meaning just a single GOP defection could prevent Cotton from being able to report Gabbard’s nomination to the floor favorably."
Justifax
2 weeks ago
punchbowl has some good analysis https://punchbowl.news/article/k-street/k-street-capitol-hill-gabbard/ https://punchbowl.news/article/senate/tulsi-gabbard-intelligence-committee-uphill-battle/
Justifax
2 weeks ago
punchbowl has some good analysis https://punchbowl.news/article/k-street/k-street-capitol-hill-gabbard/ https://punchbowl.news/article/senate/tulsi-gabbard-intelligence-committee-uphill-battle/
Justifax
2 weeks ago
Uhh, no.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
Collins is at 12% to confirm. I guess everyone here is assuming she will vote for her in committee and against her on the floor? That doesn't happen very often.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
If she doesn't get out of committee, her odds of confirmation are pretty small.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
Collins is at 12% to confirm. I guess everyone here is assuming she will vote for her in committee and against her on the floor? That doesn't happen very often.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
https://polymarket.com/event/which-senators-will-vote-to-confirm-tulsi-gabbard
Justifax
2 weeks ago
Collins is at 12% to confirm. I guess everyone here is assuming she will vote for her in committee and against her on the floor? That doesn't happen very often.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
Collins is at 12% to confirm. I guess everyone here is assuming she will vote for her in committee and against her on the floor? That doesn't happen very often.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
https://polymarket.com/event/which-senators-will-vote-to-confirm-tulsi-gabbard?tid=1737912417528 Collins is on the intel committee. https://www.axios.com/2025/01/23/tulsi-gabbard-edward-snowden-trump-senate "There's definitely a risk that she won't even survive the committee process," one Republican senator told Axios, speaking on the condition of anonymity."
Justifax
2 weeks ago
I have it on good authority if you buy up Tulsi on PolyMarket she will be automatically confirmed. I think 90c is the magic number. Copy pasting the same thing over again won't do the trick, I'm afraid. You need to show real commitment.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
"This is estimated end date. See rules below for specific resolution details."
Justifax
2 weeks ago
TBH, I've actually done really poor lately and likely on tilt. Tulsi will probably be confirmed given my record last couple of weeks.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
Tulsi is a brunette. How many brunettes have been nominated DNI? Makes you think.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
A typical scam to getting cheap no (or cheap yes, if that's what you're buying) for your own account is to say really dumb things. People will ape in against you. For example, I think Tulsi will lose because she is from hawaii. When was the last person from hawaii named DNI?
Justifax
2 weeks ago
Ideally the link is fresh and not just a dupe of something that has already been posted before.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
In general, assume every comment is a scam unless backed up by a link to a credible resource.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
Some scams are for pump and dumps, other scams are for cheap whatever they are buying with an alt account.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
In general, assume every comment is a scam unless backed up by a link to a credible resource.
Justifax
2 weeks ago
In general, assume every comment is a scam unless backed up by a link to a credible resource.
Justifax
1 month ago
Buying NO is super risky. Senate confirmation failure never happened in Trump's first term and in fact has not happened since 1988.
Justifax
1 month ago
i guess as jokes go it's only mid kinda funny. but all the scamming looked like fun so why not
Justifax
1 month ago
11:59AM maybe
Justifax
1 month ago
ez no, cert won't happen by PM time tomorrow. This should be like 50 50 imho
Justifax
1 month ago
ez no, cert won't happen by PM time tomorrow. This should be like 50 50 imho
Justifax
1 month ago
I admit gopfan selling at 90 is weirding me out.
Justifax
1 month ago
Maybe they're thinking of cucking it on the lack of end time in the rules. For real, how could they mess that up.
Justifax
1 month ago
I don't want to contribute to the delusions.
Justifax
1 month ago
For real, dem's are using their Big Weather Machine to create a snow storm as an excuse to delay cert. Better buy no. Marge told me all about it
Justifax
1 month ago
I mean, people are buying NO here, so like high chances of some delusions going on.
Justifax
1 month ago
For real, dem's are using their Big Weather Machine to create a snow storm as an excuse to delay cert. Better buy no. Marge told me all about it
Justifax
1 month ago
This is, ofc, a joke.
Justifax
1 month ago
For real, dem's are using their Big Weather Machine to create a snow storm as an excuse to delay cert. Better buy no. Marge told me all about it
Justifax
1 month ago
For real, dem's are using their Big Weather Machine to create a snow storm as an excuse to delay cert. Better buy no. Marge told me all about it
Justifax
1 month ago
could be BS
HBTOWER
1 month ago
I’m using this for the first time. I have a question. If someone’s bet turns out to be correct, will they receive the money once the bet ends, even if they don’t sell their shares? Or do they need to sell before the event ends?
Justifax
1 month ago
This market was the perfect test of who are scammers and who aren't.
Justifax
1 month ago
I'll tip anyone who disputes $100
Justifax
1 month ago
Note, you should be happy with low prices. If your goal is to pump and dump, please stop.
Justifax
1 month ago
I am stating all this because I don't want to see people screwed by purchasing NO. Unless you have serious alpha, my advice would be to stay away from this market.
Justifax
1 month ago
What do you mean lol? What I said is true.
Justifax
1 month ago
I sold as a number of people have agreed to advocate for YES who were previously advocating for NO. In general, I don't want to see this turn into a scam market.
Justifax
1 month ago
I believe a P3 resolution (50 / 50) is reasonable, but others seem to want to go for P2 (YES). I'll leave it up to them, as long as it doesn't go P1 I am satisfied.
Justifax
1 month ago
I sold as a number of people have agreed to advocate for YES who were previously advocating for NO. In general, I don't want to see this turn into a scam market.
Justifax
1 month ago
Unless he's joking, he admits directly he was in jail - https://x.com/Derivatives_Ape/status/1865051174770024808 I’ve already spent months in jail. Came back to Twitter just to get called mean words every day??
Justifax
1 month ago
I've created a discord server, https://discord.gg/XZwyNTcN, please join if you have bought at least 1000 shares of YES. We will work together to provide proof on UMA to get this to resolve as YES.
Justifax
1 month ago
ffs, I've said the same thing since day one. Resolve on headlines.
Justifax
1 month ago
it's obvious. just read the news. markets are resolved on news. you are not lawyers or journalists or experts. you're just degen gamblers. stop doing original research. as the articles explain, the language striking the freeze was removed in the passed bill. it's a double negative, but it's still true.
Justifax
1 month ago
it's obvious. just read the news. markets are resolved on news. you are not lawyers or journalists or experts. you're just degen gamblers. stop doing original research. as the articles explain, the language striking the freeze was removed in the passed bill. it's a double negative, but it's still true.
Justifax
1 month ago
Trudeau pushing out Freeland could all have been an act in order to give her a chance to run without his baggage.
Justifax
1 month ago
Lulz, hardly. It's barely a news cycle.
pumpkin227
1 month ago
I’m assuming they have other politicians in Canada? If he doesn’t get forced out then his party is a joke resigned to a decade of shadow cabinet. Even Julia Gillard resigned for Rudd lol.
Justifax
1 month ago
And fwiw, never in the history of Canada has a prime minister ever resigned on the spot. So there's that.
pumpkin227
1 month ago
I’m assuming they have other politicians in Canada? If he doesn’t get forced out then his party is a joke resigned to a decade of shadow cabinet. Even Julia Gillard resigned for Rudd lol.
Justifax
1 month ago
Well, there is this thing in north america called christmas. Not much gets done until the new year at this point.
pumpkin227
1 month ago
I’m assuming they have other politicians in Canada? If he doesn’t get forced out then his party is a joke resigned to a decade of shadow cabinet. Even Julia Gillard resigned for Rudd lol.
Justifax
1 month ago
Patty's quest for Kevin in Cairo - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4LRQEzVaNw8
Justifax
1 month ago
He could go for a walk in the snow, decide fuck it, and make the babysitter the PM.
Justifax
1 month ago
To be fair, Justin is an emotional guy. It's the Christmas holidays, he's separated from his wife. Who knows what could happen.
Justifax
1 month ago
To be fair, Justin is an emotional guy. It's the Christmas holidays, he's separated from his wife. Who knows what could happen.
Justifax
1 month ago
https://smalldeedsdone.com/2021/08/24/just-kick-the-football-charlie-brown/
Justifax
1 month ago
Optimism didn't work, so let's try pessimism!
Justifax
1 month ago
middleeastprinc... sold 7,400 Yes at 51.9c ($3,838)
Justifax
1 month ago
Barak not so enthused https://x.com/BarakRavid/status/1869087620682440752
Justifax
1 month ago
Carney though would be ideal. It'd be an interesting choice though, Carney versus Ford.
Justifax
1 month ago
What would be interesting if Ford entered the liberal leadership race. Than we might see some sparks fly from the north.
Justifax
1 month ago
What would be interesting if Ford entered the liberal leadership race. Than we might see some sparks fly from the north.