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Justifax
0xb9cc124e6ee0ba7f340394fb8b207a988d7b387a
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#4
Rank
1808
Comments
709
Likes Received
246
Likes Given
Israel Military response against Iran when?
Justifax
15 hours ago
at least use "other" or something
Justifax
15 hours ago
"later" is rather fatalistic, geez poly
Israel Military response against Iran when?
Justifax
15 hours ago
"later" is rather fatalistic, geez poly
Fed Interest Rates: November 2024
Justifax
21 hours ago
btc dropping, no change looking good. sigh.
Israel military response against Iran by Friday?
Justifax
1 day ago
covert responses could lose in uma
Israel military response against Iran in October?
Justifax
1 day ago
covert attacks could lose in uma
Will Speed break the 24h backflip world record?
Justifax
1 day ago
someone smartcash him big to do an extra flip
Will Speed break the 24h backflip world record?
Justifax
1 day ago
there's a difference between acting on minecraft and shakily flipping over your head and risking a spinal injury acting
Will Speed break the 24h backflip world record?
Justifax
1 day ago
how sure of that are you?
babavanga500k
1 day ago
If it needed 3 cameras for a world record this would have been an invalid market in the first place ergo AS LONG AS HE BREAKS 1009 ON STREAM ACCORDING TO THE VIDEO
Will Speed break the 24h backflip world record?
Justifax
1 day ago
you're not just betting will the counter make it to 1009 but will it get disputed and how will uma rule if it does
n/a
1 day ago
If he does hit it according to the counter but Guinness doesn't certify it saying these are invalid backflips, wouldn't the no side win a dispute as the video doesn't show him hitting the record with valid backflips, regardless of what the counter says?
Will Speed break the 24h backflip world record?
Justifax
1 day ago
well that's part of the bet, you can thank poly for that
n/a
1 day ago
If he does hit it according to the counter but Guinness doesn't certify it saying these are invalid backflips, wouldn't the no side win a dispute as the video doesn't show him hitting the record with valid backflips, regardless of what the counter says?
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Justifax
1 day ago
Part of the problem is that it was very hard to believe that the director was this stupid.
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Justifax
1 day ago
You can ask chat to summarize.
Justifax
1 day ago
Last comment of the day, please everyone read these two links and study them very carefully before any further betting on polymarket: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Favourite-longshot_bias
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Justifax
1 day ago
Last comment of the day, please everyone read these two links and study them very carefully before any further betting on polymarket: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Favourite-longshot_bias
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Justifax
1 day ago
How did Roemer suddenly morph from like a random friend of friend insider into a crypto whale? Hmm.
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Justifax
1 day ago
Though, it'd be super super fitting if the teaser to this doc was a hilarious and massive rug fueled by a fake forbes article. Performance art, let's call it..
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Justifax
1 day ago
It means HL gets everything.
n/a
1 day ago
What is “Winner-take-all” mean on the top of this market page (hovering over “Prize” symbol”?!!
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Justifax
1 day ago
Alrighty, you guys win. I'm out. You'll win for sure now. Well keep the Le Roux shares as a memento of my stupidity.
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Justifax
1 day ago
Wins, for funniest comment.
MaxShorter
1 day ago
HaterzLoserz you are a retard, close your position before it goes to zero . i will keep shorting your adam back pumps . your pumping the price of adam like saylor does with btc
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Justifax
1 day ago
I can only imagine how much the negriskers made in this market.
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Justifax
1 day ago
My favorite BTC scam moment was the 'fake' gensler tweet. Lulz. That was a much bigger deal than a planted forbes article. If it is!
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Justifax
1 day ago
Yeah, you're probably right. He should though.
n/a
1 day ago
Let's be real. He won't.
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Justifax
1 day ago
It's possible it's not Todd but if so Billy Brambough just took a serious hit to his career.
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Justifax
1 day ago
Ok, back bros, you will now win as I have sold off half my Adam shares.
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Justifax
1 day ago
The director can't be that stupid. I've 'sacrificed' crypto as well.
n/a
1 day ago
This is in the Forbes article, but not in the leaked clips: "Hoback's theory relies on a chat log message written by Todd in which he claims to be the "world's leading expert on how to sacrifice your bitcoins ... I've done one such sacrifice and I did it by hand," Todd wrote. Hoback characterized the message as an "admission" by Todd that he destroyed his ability to access the 1.1 million bitcoin believed to be held by Satoshi Nakamoto, something Todd denies.
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Justifax
1 day ago
Well, I guess we could pray to the lord in heaven abvove the Director trolled the journalists.
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Justifax
1 day ago
Probably the best signal it's todd is I didn't paper hand on that Adam pump.
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Justifax
1 day ago
Scammers think everyone is a scammer. Get used to it.
n/a
1 day ago
why are people pretending the Forbes article is irrelevant? It includes multiple quotes from the film which were not seen in the available leaked videos. Cullen also said he gave the full film to journalists from reputable outlets. So it's a strong Todd signal.
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Justifax
1 day ago
Be more effective to do it from the alt.
n/a
1 day ago
cope harder, it includes nothing not seen before, but I guess you gotta pump your alt's bags
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Justifax
1 day ago
Well, hope the doc is better than the clip, cause wow that Director comes off as an idiot.
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Justifax
1 day ago
The one problem is the 'controversial' clue. Would Adam really be 'controversial'?
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Justifax
1 day ago
Yeah, curious where the pump on Adam came from. I like the logic that it is Le Roux cause he's crazy, and Satoshi seems very neurodivergent.
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Justifax
1 day ago
hmm sound logic.
144
1 day ago
I thought Le roux would be the hit piece. He’s the craziest and the only one that make sense honestly. No one doesn’t touch 10s of billions for years unless they cant
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Justifax
1 day ago
Lol, the one time I don't paper hand it's going to zero. Just you watch.
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Justifax
1 day ago
For the record, not trying to pump Other. Just wondering how it got so high.
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Justifax
1 day ago
It's an interesting point - is it a hit piece on bitcoin? Let's spread the word it was built by some kid in school, that's how flakey it is.
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Justifax
1 day ago
Personally, after watching the clip, it seems pretty stupid to pick Todd. If it his him, I hope they have a more convincing reaction from him that he is Satoshi. The way he sounded in the clip was - 'dude, are you on drugs?'
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Justifax
1 day ago
HBO usually does it straight, but the pick is supposed to be 'controversial' and todd would be that. Adam said they DCM'd the clip, so again, the leak could real. This is not financial advice.
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Justifax
1 day ago
I mean, Adam did say it wasn't him. Lol
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Justifax
1 day ago
I love HL but he takes wild big swinging dick bets sometimes. Just a heads up.
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Justifax
1 day ago
It's possible the person below screened it, but it's also possible there are multiple endings that were sent out for a/b testing.
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Justifax
1 day ago
I think we'll get a 'most likely' statement which satisfies this market.
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Justifax
1 day ago
let's hope so.
n/a
1 day ago
Cullen said he settled on ONE name, not multiple.
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Justifax
1 day ago
I wish there was an "other not on list" option. Oh well.
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Justifax
1 day ago
the director could be an idiot, but i'm skeptical.
UMAisGarbage
1 day ago
So Peter Todd is richest man in world?
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Justifax
1 day ago
two or more individuals as likely, so YES.
n/a
1 day ago
I don't understand how other/multiple is at 90? If they end without naming the persorn or group of people, wouldn't other resolve to NO along with every other market or is that a yes even if they don't name anyone?
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Justifax
1 day ago
I think it could be anyone on the list. I bet no earlier because I wanted to cover, but then I realized the director could rug us. Which is probably why it's priced so high.
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Justifax
1 day ago
It might be back, I truly have no clue. Not even sure why I bought him at this point. Not going dump it though, just take the loss.
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Justifax
1 day ago
It could be a bunch of rapid takes on different theories. By accusing everyone the director can also keep the conclusion secret.
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Justifax
1 day ago
That's why I bought back :)
UMAisGarbage
1 day ago
Read Back's Twitter. He's discounting the documentary saying ppl shouldn't believe that Satoshi is who the doc says it is
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Justifax
1 day ago
Other might not be overpriced. It's possible by accusing everyone the director gets away with saying he confronted him.
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Justifax
1 day ago
classic.
SwaggyRach
1 day ago
https://x.com/theblockcitizen/status/1843732566261846387 its peter todd wp
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Justifax
1 day ago
Not Elon Musk though, I guess. too bad
informed
1 day ago
It is Adam Back, you just got misguided by some insignificant leak. They will ask 10 different people at least in documentary whether they are Satoshi. Even people like Prince Phillip Karadzordzevic
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Justifax
1 day ago
There was this TV detective who's technique was to accuse everyone of murder and see how they reacted. Dunno if this director is that clever tho.
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Justifax
1 day ago
When car goes to hell he will have to sit in a chair and pump meme coins for eternity or be repeatedly eaten by gargoyles.
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Justifax
2 days ago
oh yes, of course you'd post this.
Car
2 days ago
The cast says Vili Lehdonvirta is Satoshi Nakamoto: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt33600145/fullcredits/?ref_=tt_ov_st#cast
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Justifax
2 days ago
I mean, it could be todd? At least for the doc. Pretty sure todd isn't satoshi. His reaction was genuine. I think, could be wrong, the director confronts a number of people and settles on one (hopefully, but maybe he is rugging us)
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Justifax
2 days ago
Curious, anyone betting on Todd? I assumed the leaked video was just a teaser, but could be wrong I guess.
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Justifax
2 days ago
https://x.com/Cryptopotato_TR/status/1843722392272810298
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Justifax
2 days ago
Lol, in the cnn interview the direction implies that the person denies to him that he is satoshi.
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
Justifax
2 days ago
i agree, her out of gate price control speech was bananas
n/a
2 days ago
lol that’s her biggest weakness? Looking past her social view points that I disagree with, her economic ideals would be horrible for the American people long term. I don’t think anyone would read a full TLDR explanation of economic policy and free market trickle down economics but my point is, for those of us that do understand, it’s certainly not her lack of interviews that drive me/us away from her…
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
Justifax
2 days ago
too little too late? guess we will see
n/a
2 days ago
I thought she was on a media blitz starting this week.
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
Justifax
2 days ago
better the devil you know, right
Justifax
2 days ago
kam's biggest weakness is the fact that polling indicates nobody knows who she is. she avoided interviews too much, imho
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
Justifax
2 days ago
kam's biggest weakness is the fact that polling indicates nobody knows who she is. she avoided interviews too much, imho
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
Justifax
2 days ago
if you look at the polling people still don't know who kam is.
Justifax
3 days ago
i wonder how much the vance debate moved the polls. trump looks pretty tight for selecting someone who is clearly razor sharp.
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
Justifax
2 days ago
the problem is less trump and more kam, she was a mystery because of the lack of interviews and sudden switch to center.
Cedarville
3 days ago
In his interview with her, he even told her he sucks at debates. Debates won’t win this election, though. People made up their mind about trump yes or no years ago. Anyone claiming they’re on the fence is just a closeted trump supporter
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
Justifax
2 days ago
Nates struggling to get respect from the markets these days. They didn't believe him when he had trump ahead and they don't believe him when he has kam ahead.
n/a
2 days ago
Even Nate thinks this is odd! https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1843344158662242761
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
Justifax
3 days ago
i am biased to trump in preference. he's a vile piece of shit, but sometimes you need shit to fertilize growth
Justifax
3 days ago
i stil love walz, but kam doesn't look so good for selecting someone who appeared dumber in the debate
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
Justifax
3 days ago
yeh, i don't think kam is dumb or dei but her pick doesn't seem to be helping her. trump had a deep bench of smart people to pick from, tbh.
Justifax
3 days ago
i stil love walz, but kam doesn't look so good for selecting someone who appeared dumber in the debate
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
Justifax
3 days ago
i stil love walz, but kam doesn't look so good for selecting someone who appeared dumber in the debate
Justifax
3 days ago
i wonder how much the vance debate moved the polls. trump looks pretty tight for selecting someone who is clearly razor sharp.
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
Justifax
3 days ago
i wonder how much the vance debate moved the polls. trump looks pretty tight for selecting someone who is clearly razor sharp.
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
Justifax
3 days ago
on top of that the kam cratering continues
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
Justifax
3 days ago
i think if we don't see a poll in the next 2 hours, we might be fucked
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
Justifax
3 days ago
chat is saying sunday or monday, ruh roh. well karma for copy trading i guess https://chatgpt.com/share/6704097d-0b80-800a-93bb-115599d7b7bc
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
Justifax
3 days ago
Art, am I mistaken or is tuesday the day when the most polls come out during the week? I did that analysis once. Monday or Tuesday, can't remember which.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
3 days ago
Just to clear up as someone below was confused. Unless we get to 9.9M votes on one side the vote will 'roll', ie, have to be repeated. But a simple majority will inform the next vote which will likely go 100%.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
3 days ago
Kevin Chan committed his vote yesterday and then a minute later a topholder posted on discord very confidently about the vote. It could be a coincidence of course, but I dunno. Did they communicate? Probably not but because of the 'decentralized' voting machine is so centralized and lacks transparency these issues arise.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
3 days ago
That is not necessarily true. You might want to avoid commenting on something you know nothing about.
n/a
3 days ago
There's no more vote on this homie
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
3 days ago
It is what it is. The result shouldn't be surprising. The DVM is a flawed mechanism and the second biggest topholder on NO dislikes it as much as everyone else. We should all advocate for Polymarket to drop UMA at the earliest time possible.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
3 days ago
So we actually don't need consensus, just a majority vote. Yes it will roll to another vote, but the next vote will go all in on the previous majority because of the updated schelling point.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
3 days ago
It's funny - I predicted exactly this earlier. A known whale confidently posted about the outcome of the vote minutes after Kevin voted yesterday. Maybe a coincidence, but it gave me a vibe that Kevin would vote P1. All up to BTL now.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
3 days ago
Technically 24 hours and sometimes it goes to the finish line, sometimes sooner. Sunday night, so might have to wait until tomorrow. Not sure.
n/a
3 days ago
How long does it take for the returns to come in?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
3 days ago
There are many problems with vague rules in PMs, but the biggest is the plausible deniability for rigging the resolution.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
3 days ago
The problem is that we have so much money in this market it's starting to make sense to manipulate outcomes.
Gauth
3 days ago
if I understand correctly, UMA token holders are rewarded if they answer correctly and penalized if they don't, but for now we are at 75/25 while more voters said yes than those who said no? this system is absurd
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
3 days ago
Yeah, people are very confused. We're gamblers not news reporters. Leave the news reporting up to the experts.
niverse
3 days ago
Now the proportion of people who voted for "no" is far ahead. I don't understand why they would vote "no". This is not in their interest and is not in line with common sense. I will give one of their reasons. The open entry of ground troops into Lebanon does not mean an invasion.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
3 days ago
Gas prices are kinda lowest right now, so in theory we should be seeing some reveals. But they remain low for the next few hours
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
3 days ago
As these markets get more valuable and more volume, these sorts of things are doable.
Justifax
3 days ago
Assume these non UMA staff whales on UMA are in a crypto cabal. What keeps them from betting on this market? If kevin/btl split they could be the tie breaker.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
3 days ago
Assume these non UMA staff whales on UMA are in a crypto cabal. What keeps them from betting on this market? If kevin/btl split they could be the tie breaker.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
3 days ago
0x1cc0 877K - ouch for yes. Was p4 last time. Now 74N/25Y and 18.6% tokens revealed.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
3 days ago
Yeah, my posts are all scam. You are so smart.
1mperator17
3 days ago
i thought you said buying while a dispute is being revealed in scamming
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
3 days ago
I really must resist betting in this market. Of all the trading I've done, I've always sold before going to dispute because I do not trust the process at all. Probably first time I've held.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
3 days ago
vote.uma.xyz for details
n/a
3 days ago
What is real end date of this poll?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
3 days ago
No, it's not Domer and I doubt Chad, as that would like mean prison for someone. My guess is that it's one or more people that work at UMA. But I dunno for sure
n/a
3 days ago
Should we infer that is JustKen and Chad or JustKen and maybe UMAmustbe
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
3 days ago
Well, not so much wallets, as two actors - Kevin Chan, CFO of UMA and 'btl', who I think is UMA staff.
Justifax
3 days ago
Wallet count, 31 Y 19 N. 65% N 35% Y Again, just *two* wallets count for ~42% of all the ~17.6M tokens committed in this vote.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
3 days ago
Wallet count, 31 Y 19 N. 65% N 35% Y Again, just *two* wallets count for ~42% of all the ~17.6M tokens committed in this vote.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
3 days ago
vote.uma.xyz
n/a
3 days ago
What % of votes are in
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
3 days ago
Reinis_FRP, UMA revealed 72K for P2. He was P2 last vote as well. There are no named UMA voters that have gone p1 yet, but the dune query might not capture them.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
3 days ago
I've met about 2 people so far that I think are honest?
Greta-Tunafish
3 days ago
Is there anyone on this site who doesn't scam? wtf
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
3 days ago
This could resolve NO. Honestly, and this is not financial advice, I think the odds around 50/50 right now. I'd say keep an eye on aenews (he's well versed in all of this) but he could wash trade scam you.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
3 days ago
To be fair: it's possible they are delegating their votes to other people. lifewillbeokay would no, but he's kinda mean so I'm not going to ask. :(
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
3 days ago
Something to think about, of course. It's more subtle and probably harder to prosecute because of plausible deniability, but these ups and downs in the market could potentially be coordinated. Certainly the slow roll is very strange, why not just do them all in one shot while you're at the computer?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
3 days ago
Afaict, please correct me if I am wrong, Chase has another 380K tokens to reveal and he's slow rolling them. Maybe UMA can't manipulate the outcome and get away with it, but maybe they can control the order of the reveal and how the trading goes.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
3 days ago
Chase Coleman, UMA who was P4 last time, went P2 this time.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
3 days ago
I posted the link on the discord.
niverse
3 days ago
Where can I check it? I can't find it. Thank you
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
3 days ago
I'll be honest, I don't know how btl is going to vote here. I am a little suspicious that Kevin will vote P1 as he seemed to do it at a weird time and rather quickly after voting started. But we will see!
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
3 days ago
Wallet count is now 29 YES and 15 NO.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
3 days ago
scam
SylvesterStallone
3 days ago
Mhhh, the exact same bet has twice аs much liquidity and has different odds, I'm not sure but аrbitrаgе is certainly doable https://x.com/TreeAphaNews/status/1842579398282871238.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
3 days ago
One thing you can do is compare previous vote versus current vote. For example, previously we had 3.2M for YES and 0x4c34 has now voted YES whereas they voted TOO EARLY last time. They revealed 175,502 tokens.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
3 days ago
If you go on polycord, I have pasted a link to the dune query which you can use to show in realtime who's revealed votes. Hat tip @lifewillbeokay
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
3 days ago
One of the reasons I hate the UMA process is the orthogonal insider info that veterans can use to take money away from folks just trying to bet on "did they invade". For example, which UMA voters have a high accuracy rate on disputed markets? What's their connection to the chain for reveals like? Do they know the identity of btl and their potential biases? The list goes on and all of these details are not relevant to the underlying question.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
3 days ago
Imho, trading during a dispute is largely a scam. You don't realize how much insider info people have against you and while I have the ability to do the same I refuse to take part in such a scam.
1mperator17
3 days ago
so youre just bad at it then?
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
Justifax
3 days ago
I generally despise copy trading, but for Vandalay Industries I will make an exception.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
3 days ago
I carefully limited this buy so as not to dump it like Car does. It's funny but tragic how people don't understand the scam.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
3 days ago
If I were pumping, I would have sold a long time ago. In fact, I would have bought mass NO as the flip toward 50/50 was inevitable. Cars scam is to pump and then sell to chumps that fall for his scam.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
3 days ago
More decentralized wallets are voting p2, but more shares are voting p1. A lot of UMA staff voted p2 last go around, but the two big whales voted p4.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
3 days ago
My guess is because it's so centralized, UMA wants the option to control when they reveal their vote to see how the 'decentralized' part votes.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
3 days ago
be aware that people have high speed connections to the chain and will see vote reveals before you do. if you have orders on the book, they will get snatched.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
3 days ago
so far 17 p2 voters to 8 p1 voters, but of course share ownership matters. it comes down to 2 voters basically. btl and kevin chan
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
4 days ago
Car and his fanboy NIGGA. Car is buying NO at resistance points, pumping very hard any BS he can imagine, and then selling. He is the worst low life imaginable.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
4 days ago
UMA has punted P4 on markets before to gain more time for clarity. Domer has asked them too.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
4 days ago
Imagine if a report came out that Israel attacked Iran at the deadline. And then a bit later there was a retraction. Is poly supposed to resolve YES? P4 to ensure no retractions is perfectly reasonable. There were no retractions on all these articles timestamped Sept 30th - https://pastebin.com/BcqXXTzH
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
Justifax
4 days ago
guess
BenCM
4 days ago
What's your point?
Israel military response against Iran by Sunday?
Justifax
4 days ago
The attack won't happen until the price is below 5c. So if we keep it above 5c, then we protect the world from catastrophic nuclear war.
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Justifax
4 days ago
i have to say the insiders at hbo are doing a very lame job of profiting off this market
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Justifax
4 days ago
prepare to be rugged by uma.
cairokid
4 days ago
Very surprised Hal Finney fluctuations, crazy that community doesn't see it yet.
Israel military response against Iran by Sunday?
Justifax
4 days ago
It's a joke response to the post below. I don't believe holidays are a factor at the moment.
n/a
4 days ago
And atill buy 985 Yea ahh...
Israel military response against Iran by Sunday?
Justifax
4 days ago
Doubt it's happening. On Yom Kipur, all of IDF withdraws from everywhere and hangs out at the local cafes, munching on bagels.
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
Justifax
5 days ago
I don't know if people are scamming or just stupid, but this is the link referenced in the Trump V Harris market - sep 12 https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/harris-maintains-slight-edge-over-trump-among-voters-nationwide https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-win-the-debate-according-to-polls
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
Justifax
5 days ago
Trump v Harris? Are you scamming?
Szty1
5 days ago
Their POTUS debate poll was released on Sunday, 5 days after the debate.
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
Justifax
5 days ago
Anyone have any examples of Ipsos taking this long to release a post debate poll? Asking for a friend.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
5 days ago
If you have an argument for the "Final Review", make that argument. Tricks and rules cucking are not arguments.
Justifax
5 days ago
You can't *trick* the "Final Review" via the previous P4 vote by arguing that P4 === P1. In the time since that vote, there were no retractions. Plenty of markets get resolved after expiry.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
5 days ago
You can't *trick* the "Final Review" via the previous P4 vote by arguing that P4 === P1. In the time since that vote, there were no retractions. Plenty of markets get resolved after expiry.
Israel military response against Iran by Friday?
Justifax
5 days ago
Well, why is it legal for Newspapers to profit off reporting on War? We not only report but predict the news, and we are compensated (and punished!) by these markets.
mio
5 days ago
how is this legal. I like it
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
5 days ago
We could all flood the Polymarket discord and get them to clarify?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
5 days ago
Ah that was the context. Thought it was important to include it.
n/a
5 days ago
You messed up your link, I thought you were referring to Nick Tomaino. Yes, I see that Hart agreed with him in that tweet, my apologies.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
5 days ago
@palisades Hart is the CEO of risk labs https://risklabs.foundation/#team-section ... doesn't risk labs control UMA?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
5 days ago
https://risklabs.foundation/#team-section
n/a
5 days ago
That is not the CEO of UMA.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
5 days ago
Here is the philosophy of the CEO of UMA for voting. Basically, vote what the average person would think. https://x.com/NTmoney/status/1793751823003865191
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
6 days ago
JPOST Sept30th - "IDF division that broke Hamas in Khan Yunis spearheads Lebanon invasion" https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-821158 PBS Sept30th "Israel starts invasion of southern Lebanon, continues air strikes across the country" https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/israel-continues-beirut-airstrikes-as-forces-appear-prepared-for-lebanon-ground-invasion WAPO Sept30th - The invasion is being supported by the Israeli air force and artillery, the Israel Defense Forces said. https://x.com/washingtonpost/status/1840895921464226061 NBC Sept30th "Israel launches invasion into southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah" https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/israel-lebanon-ground-invasion-rcna172913 CBC/Thomson Reuters Sept30th "Israeli military launches ground invasion, targets Hezbollah in southern Lebanon" https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/israel-hezbollah-lebanon-ground-invasion-1.7338032 NYPOST Sept 30th "Israel begins ground invasion of Lebanon to take out Hezbollah outposts" https://nypost.com/2024/09/30/world-news/israel-begins-ground-invasion-of-lebanon-against-hezbollah/ NYT Sept 30th "Israeli Military Announces Ground Invasion of Southern Lebanon" https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/30/world/middleeast/israel-hezbollah-lebanon-ground-invasion.html BBC Sept 30th "Israel launches ground invasion in Lebanon" https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czxgyzq7z2ro.amp
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
6 days ago
A reason why they voted P4 was because the event happened just before it was proposed and very late. Fog of War and folks wanted to make sure there wasn't retractions. Think 'dewey defats truman'. Retractions happen and you have to give it a day or so to make sure the news is correct.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
6 days ago
"UmaMustBeStoppedAtAllCosts" should give you a clue, here.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
6 days ago
I want to be very very clear. Enters did not resolve because certain users were on one side. It resolved because there was a clear consensus of reporting, especially in the headlines. Don't get caught up in who is on what side, or has what PNL. UMA has resolved many many times against these players.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
6 days ago
Yep, I agree, but we'll see.
Cedarville
6 days ago
Intent to occupy and intent to control aren’t the same. They’re already controlling parts of southern Lebanon
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
6 days ago
The reason the previous vote went p4 was because 'fog of war'. Retractions are possible. Also, intent to control is still not 100% clear. November could still go P4, tbh.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
6 days ago
Don't cite wikipedia folks. It's an awesome source for citations, but nobody should ever cite wikipedia itself.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
6 days ago
UMA and Polymarket have been very consistent lately in disputes if you look at them. They've been resolving on headlines as they know that pumpers and scammers can't manipulate the headlines.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
6 days ago
SO, Car is on NO. Lol. That's all the ER you need.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
6 days ago
There is nothing in the rules that said say anything that you're saying. You're just making it up.
rozi
6 days ago
Other than in-and-out raids, Israeli troops started entering for combat on Oct 2. Plenty of footage of that happening. No footage of anything else than raids from before. Here's your impossible answer.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
6 days ago
"Anything is possible, if you believe" is a pretty bad motto for objective resolution.
UmaMustBeStoppedAtAllCosts
6 days ago
you will come to find some people say honest things and others just spam endless nonsense only to dump on others.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
6 days ago
No one on NO will answer that question without coming up with all sorts of new verbiage doesn't exist in the market.
Justifax
6 days ago
Fundamentally - if it didn't start on Sept30th, when the headlines said it did, when does it start? Answer that question without making up rules.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
6 days ago
Fundamentally - if it didn't start on Sept30th, when the headlines said it did, when does it start? Answer that question without making up rules.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
6 days ago
I limited my buy to make sure I didn't dump it.
UmaMustBeStoppedAtAllCosts
6 days ago
you will come to find some people say honest things and others just spam endless nonsense only to dump on others.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
6 days ago
This won't be decided on price history, so I wouldn't worry too much. Price has gone up and down too much.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
6 days ago
Fair point, but that's still 3.2M in the tank for YES. We have no idea who is going to vote no.
n/a
6 days ago
You still don't get it, or you are just try to scam others. NO was not an option as it was too early to close on NO.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
6 days ago
Covered extensively: https://x.com/TimesofIsrael/status/1841075726646407441 https://x.com/Reuters/status/1840938872055697838 https://x.com/washingtonpost/status/1840895921464226061 https://x.com/Jerusalem_Post/status/1841025054609469507 https://x.com/BarakRavid/status/1840857676781080600 https://x.com/FoxNews/status/1840780792089235835
Justifax
6 days ago
Domer said it best: if and when ISRAEL INVADES LEBANON, it will be one of the biggest world events and will be covered extensively https://imgur.com/a/Sx0aROP https://discord.com/channels/710897173927297116/817444472009785366/1214070542458560562
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
6 days ago
Be aware that this has been voted on, it went P4, with P2 and 3.2M shares on YES and 0.1% on NO. Early requ... 81.15% (14,063,467.91) No 0.10% (17,280.03) Yes 18.75% (3,249,840.66) unknown/50... 0.00% (106.42) https://vote.uma.xyz/
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
6 days ago
Domer said it best: if and when ISRAEL INVADES LEBANON, it will be one of the biggest world events and will be covered extensively https://imgur.com/a/Sx0aROP https://discord.com/channels/710897173927297116/817444472009785366/1214070542458560562
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
6 days ago
Both Polymarket and UMA have resolved markets on headlines. Headlines provides an impartial reference point that can't be manipulated by pumpers and scammers. It's a consistent framework resistant to fraud. This market should be resolved consistently with all the other markets. The invasion begun headlines were for Sep 30th.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
6 days ago
This entire market resolves on the word 'commences'. If it didn't start when dozens of reputable outlets say it started (on Sept 30th), and not one outlet said it was "not an invasion" (not one), then when does it start? Answer that without making up a bunch of new rules.
Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?
Justifax
6 days ago
this isn't about who created bitcoin but rather what BS story HBO will tell
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
6 days ago
for people trading this, price is unlikely to be an influencing factor in the UMA decision given history.
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
Justifax
6 days ago
I've already saved like 7c per share!
n/a
6 days ago
@Justifax - Do you ever bet more than 5? I see you up in the comments on like every bet but always like 5 shares lol.
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
Justifax
6 days ago
hmmmm. Probably poly isn't the right place for you.
irdanka
6 days ago
Tell me, why is it not being completed? October 1st has already passed. Do I have to wait for October 15th?
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
Justifax
6 days ago
Trying to decide if I want to buy more.
n/a
6 days ago
@Justifax - Do you ever bet more than 5? I see you up in the comments on like every bet but always like 5 shares lol.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
6 days ago
I understand some folks are bitter about getting rugged on the last day like this, but it happens, more often than you probably realize. Dozens of reputable outlets on Sept30th stated that the invasion had begun. That is a commencement.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
6 days ago
Don't assume someone will dispute.
Israel military response against Iran by Friday?
Justifax
6 days ago
yeh it can take a bit of planning when you're potentially starting ww3.
n/a
6 days ago
Your reasoning makes sense, but I think the 70%+ was always a little overvalued. First, Wednesday trough Friday is Rosh Hashanah and second, in April they waited six days too, to strike back.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
6 days ago
They voted on the dispute. While the majority went p4, 2M of the votes were in favor of YES. Those folks are likely to vote YES again.
Justifax
6 days ago
In the last UMA vote that went p4 there was 2M on yes. Something to keep in mind.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
6 days ago
In the last UMA vote that went p4 there was 2M on yes. Something to keep in mind.
Israel military response against Iran by Friday?
Justifax
6 days ago
Given that there are 24 hour left in tomorrow, and only 6 hours left in today, yes, it's more likely tomorrow.
Justifax
6 days ago
uhm, isn't that like a tautology?
Israel military response against Iran by Friday?
Justifax
6 days ago
uhm, isn't that like a tautology?
n/a
1 week ago
the price fell so much, as if the market expected to be told in advance of the time and place of such a blow if there was one. Obviously these plans are kept top secret, aren't they?
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
Justifax
6 days ago
i'm sure ipsos has more dem++ polls to produce, but the swing state poll was crushing for kam - https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/1841918635217949164
Justifax
6 days ago
the guy is an idiot
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
Justifax
6 days ago
the guy is an idiot
Infringe
6 days ago
waltz holders should exit before they're isnt exit liquidity to exit worthless waltz shares
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
Justifax
6 days ago
ok time to make a chrome extension block
n/a
6 days ago
u only buy 5 shares so people see ur comments no one wants ur opinion bro
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
Justifax
6 days ago
So no ipsos poll so far, maybe the trump +1 swing state freaked them out. Biden was up +4.3 in 2020 Oct 3rd and only won by a slim 0.03 https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/trump-vs-biden-top-battleground-states/
Israel military response against Iran by Friday?
Justifax
6 days ago
nothing ever happens
n/a
1 week ago
the price fell so much, as if the market expected to be told in advance of the time and place of such a blow if there was one. Obviously these plans are kept top secret, aren't they?
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
Justifax
6 days ago
uhhh right
Justifax
1 week ago
Anyone notice how Kamala is cratering in the polls? Both ActiVote & Emerson shifting downwards rapidly https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
Justifax
1 week ago
same for emerson, also you can see the same thing on https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris search for emerson
Justifax
1 week ago
Anyone notice how Kamala is cratering in the polls? Both ActiVote & Emerson shifting downwards rapidly https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
Justifax
1 week ago
are both looking at 538? filter on activote and search for "President: general election, 2024"
Szty1
1 week ago
What are you even talking about? Activote is unchanged since their last poll, Emerson is -1.
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
Justifax
1 week ago
Sept. 25-Oct. 2 1,000 LV ActiVote Harris 51% 49% Trump Harris +1
Szty1
1 week ago
What are you even talking about? Activote is unchanged since their last poll, Emerson is -1.
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
Justifax
1 week ago
Anyone notice how Kamala is cratering in the polls? Both ActiVote & Emerson shifting downwards rapidly https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Justifax
1 week ago
Repost: This video is referencing 'minutes after the order was given' .. I've been told that this is Sept 30th. https://x.com/TreyYingst/status/1841572129457783149?t=_yF-ffDUmX4-evqMEZaZ5Q&s=19 If anyone has better proof that this is from Sept 30th, I'd appreciate it.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Justifax
1 week ago
This video is referencing 'minutes after the order was given' .. I've been told that this is Sept 30th. https://x.com/TreyYingst/status/1841572129457783149?t=_yF-ffDUmX4-evqMEZaZ5Q&s=19 If anyone has better proof that this is from Sept 30th, I'd appreciate it.
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Justifax
1 week ago
The only way this market can go YES and september go NO if for some reason, idf changes their strategy in november. Given the holidays, not a lot of time for that. Seems very improbable
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Justifax
1 week ago
Look, this market could go no. If you don't make a case for september, then this market *must* go no. otherwise, there is no consistency in how UMA is resolving markets.
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Justifax
1 week ago
TBH, if UMA / poly resolve this market differently from Septemer invasion, ie they don't use headlnes for these markets, they will leave themselves open to be called inconsistent and a scammer. They need a consistent framework and headlines provides one.
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Justifax
1 week ago
The "Northern Arrows operation" began in Sept. This has been broadly reported by every single media outlet. Nobody disputes this - nobody. As to the specific tactics of the operation, sure, who knows exactly what precisely happened. But the rules don't ask for that. You can argue 'control' if you want, but it is very unserious to argue 'commence' when every headline agrees on exactly when this operation started.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Justifax
1 week ago
To be clear - batu on UMA who has been wrong before. He is lying in his screenshots and doesn't provide arguments. I think he provides no value to the discourse but he is mostly harmless afaict.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Justifax
1 week ago
For a binary option contract that can only go YES or NO .. yes. I agree the truth is far more messier, but this a binary response and binary reality.
n/a
1 week ago
Are you trying to tell me WSJ click bait headlines is more real then the reality of all of us on the ground?
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Justifax
1 week ago
Unfortunately, I believe you were squeezed in the middle. And the whale that argued NO and bought NO (and then sold!) is the one you should like talk to about all this.
n/a
1 week ago
I'd rather we look at the amount of capital risked for 1% gain and then the UMA tokens backing them but sure
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Justifax
1 week ago
Poly and UMA can't resolve based on ad hoc judgements per market. They need a consistent framework that works for all markets. Resolving on headlines from the credible outlets (when they occur) in the world is the way to do that. I do know there was the hezbollah one from reuters, but hezbollah also said Nasarallah was alive and also said they were shooting at troops inside lebanon.. They are disorganized and not credible.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Justifax
1 week ago
wsj is considered one of the most credible sources of reporting in the world. The headline was - "Israeli Special Forces Launch Raids Into Lebanon Ahead of Expected Ground Incursion"
n/a
1 week ago
I live here and there were not boots on the ground... nor was there reporting of boots on the ground until mid-day Oct 1st
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Justifax
1 week ago
A raid by special forces in very hostile territory ahead of an incursion is generally considered a combat operation.
Renegar
1 week ago
did wsj classify this as a "combat operation"? If so, there should be credible sources to confirm and there are none. this combat.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Justifax
1 week ago
Or credible sources.
n/a
1 week ago
The rules specifically state "official confirmation from hezbollah and israel" which was released. Not WSJ
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Justifax
1 week ago
I've said this 100s of times throughout this market. I've said in other markets. Poly and UMA resolve on headlines. They have to. Everyone knows headlines and if they get caught up in below the fold details it would be impossible to resolve properly as there would be too much conflicting information. Headlines are best effort summaries of truth, which works for binary option contracts that go YES or NO.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
1 week ago
The "Northern Arrows operation" commenced on Sept 30th, ET. This has been broadly reported by every single media outlet. Nobody disputes this - nobody. As to the specific tactics of the operation, sure, who knows exactly what precisely happened. But the rules don't ask for that. You can argue 'control' if you want, but it is very unserious to argue 'commence' when every headline agrees on exactly when this operation started.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
1 week ago
Bingo
abdendriel
1 week ago
The offensive is called the Northern Arrows operation
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
1 week ago
Due to fog of war, we will never know what happened exactly when at the border. We will only know what the headlines said.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
1 week ago
If poly and uma are going to remain consistent, they need to resolve this market on headlines and they need to resolve in the same way as November.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
1 week ago
Why this market should go same as November: assume that the offensive didn't commence on Sept 30th despite every headline from every credible outlet saying it did. Ask yourself - at what point does the offensive commence?
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Justifax
1 week ago
If you want to look for a scam by whales, I suggest you analyze which whale bought 'NO' and encouraged others to do the same. These whales know how poly and uma resolve. Ask yourself - why did they do that?
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Justifax
1 week ago
wsj is considered one of the most credible newsrooms in the world (not so much the opinion side): https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israeli-special-forces-launch-raids-into-lebanon-ahead-of-possible-ground-incursion-bf2fe94d "Israeli Special Forces Launch Raids Into Lebanon Ahead of Expected Ground Incursion"
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Justifax
1 week ago
Again, both poly and UMA very consistently resolve based on headlines from top outlets. The headline from wsj was - "Israeli Special Forces Launch Raids Into Lebanon Ahead of Expected Ground Incursion"
n/a
1 week ago
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter Lebanese territory for combat operations between September 18 and September 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET." This bet is about whether or not IDF ENTERED Lebanon.. not launched raids along the border.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Justifax
1 week ago
I am honest and sincere as they come and I'll tell you this. Both poly and uma very very consistently resolve on headlines from top outlets. Headlines are a best effort summary of truth. If wsj headlines says special forces are launching raids in lebanon, then that is enough to go YES. They are *very* consistent about this. It's not a scam.
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
Justifax
1 week ago
hmm oh oh
TheGuru
1 week ago
Actually if you look at the yougov poll... 39% of partakers in the poll identified as democrats, 33% as republicans. So that's a 6% bias
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
Justifax
1 week ago
we need like a new statute for maga abuse, like elder abuse, but you know, for maga
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
Justifax
1 week ago
It's a fair point about shaping for sure, but most of the shaping seems tied
Justifax
1 week ago
Ipsos is +6 harris, CNN is tied and CNN flash poll was just +1 vance. Soooo..
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
Justifax
1 week ago
https://today.yougov.com/politics/articles/50498-harris-wins-the-presidential-debate-poll https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-win-the-debate-according-to-polls
Justifax
1 week ago
Ipsos is +6 harris, CNN is tied and CNN flash poll was just +1 vance. Soooo..
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
Justifax
1 week ago
lol what a picture
n/a
1 week ago
Uh oh… https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/02/politico-snap-poll-division-debate-00182131
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
Justifax
1 week ago
A YouGov poll had Harris winning by 43-28 (+15) among registered voters, and Ipsos came in at +29 53/24
Justifax
1 week ago
Ipsos is +6 harris, CNN is tied and CNN flash poll was just +1 vance. Soooo..
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
Justifax
1 week ago
FD: Will paper hand it back in 50/50 range
Justifax
1 week ago
Ipsos is +6 harris, CNN is tied and CNN flash poll was just +1 vance. Soooo..
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
Justifax
1 week ago
Ipsos is +6 harris, CNN is tied and CNN flash poll was just +1 vance. Soooo..
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Justifax
1 week ago
uma staff mostly decides and they don't bet
n/a
1 week ago
Is there a way to know who proposes and who disputes? (and who reviews, and are the reviewers also betting?)
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
1 week ago
Sure, but that is highly improbable. IDF has only once updated its war plans in the last whatever months.
denizz
1 week ago
The situation is fluid. If Israel has a cabinet meeting and decides to do a proper invasion, that cannot be retroactively attributed to September.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Justifax
1 week ago
You know, the whales have been super greedy here. It would be nice if you could let some of us smaller fish have a shot at this free money.
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Justifax
1 week ago
Trumpito's faith in UMA is a thing to behold. Lol. Good luck with that. They have come up with the most moronic resolutions ever.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
1 week ago
The betting here is wildly fucked up with the diff against november. Only a few have captured this nuance (the great trader trumpito, in a big way, pence and a few others). Please copytrade them!!
Justifax
1 week ago
Whatever is happening, *commenced* in September EST. This is what we all know. What everyone has reported. This is *indisputable*. I won't say what is happening, only that it started / began / commenced in September EST. If IDF announces a change in intention, sure a new beginning, but that seems unlikely.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
1 week ago
Whatever is happening, *commenced* in September EST. This is what we all know. What everyone has reported. This is *indisputable*. I won't say what is happening, only that it started / began / commenced in September EST. If IDF announces a change in intention, sure a new beginning, but that seems unlikely.
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Justifax
1 week ago
Whatever is happening, *commenced* in September EST. This is what we all know. What everyone has reported. This is *indisputable*. I won't say what is happening, only that it started / began / commenced in September EST. If IDF announces a change in intention, sure a new beginning, but that seems unlikely.
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Justifax
1 week ago
Whatever is happening, *commenced* in September EST. This is what we all know. What everyone has reported. This is *indisputable*. I won't say what is happening, only that it started / began / commenced in September EST. If IDF announces a change in intention, sure, but that seems unlikely.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
1 week ago
LOL read the fffing article again. He's just saying that what has happened is required.
n/a
1 week ago
https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-822893 Article in the Jerusalem post making a case for boots on the ground and occupying southern Lebanon. Confirms it hasn't happened yet.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
1 week ago
LOL... the war plans are rarely updated.
denizz
1 week ago
The concrete goals can shift with each cabinet meeting or more frequently
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Justifax
1 week ago
p4 is fine to gauge their intentions better, but september (when the offensive started) should go p4 as well. If not, it's a laughable scam or uma once again being totally brain dead
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
1 week ago
yeh so i've bought and sold about 30k shares in this market
duckduck
1 week ago
bro you have 5 shares, I flush more expensive opinions
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Justifax
1 week ago
People this isn't about forces necessarily *entering* Lebanon.. It's about the commencement of the operation. The operation began on september 30th. I mean ffs. Unless IDF says something like this - 'oh we changed our mind, we're going to do something different than what we originally greenlit' .... this all started on september 30th.
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Justifax
1 week ago
I mean the operation started on september 30th!! We all watched it begin. Do you think this is going to magically transition into a different operation sometime in november????
Justifax
1 week ago
I really see zero dif between this and the september market. Everything "commenced" on sept 30th, EST.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
1 week ago
If I were you I'd sell NO here and buy it in November - much cheaper! Everything commenced on sept 30th, EST. If you say otherwise, you're a scammer or an idiot. Unless you think they're suddenly going to magically change their goals in november, I guess....
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Justifax
1 week ago
lol, be careful of what you wish for. Israel is not going to start suddenly 'invading'. They've either already started, or it's something else. Also, if september goes NO, so should November.
HaterzLoserz
1 week ago
why post a resolution this early? im even against this resolving rn tbh, we have a month, and clarity has not been achieved, thats by IDF design, they want to obscure the battlespace and movements of troops, naturally. This should be pushed back with the "too early" resolution
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
1 week ago
For real, this should be the same price as November. "This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel commences a military offensive intended" Commence - to begin, start. Everything started on Sept 30th. That much is very very obvious.
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Justifax
1 week ago
That said, UMA struggles with simple commonsense stuff like that. So not going to try to arb it. Those who are, could get very screwed if they don't sell.
Justifax
1 week ago
I really see zero dif between this and the september market. Everything "commenced" on sept 30th, EST.
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Justifax
1 week ago
Either both should go YES or both should go NO.
Justifax
1 week ago
I really see zero dif between this and the september market. Everything "commenced" on sept 30th, EST.
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Justifax
1 week ago
I really see zero dif between this and the september market. Everything "commenced" on sept 30th, EST.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
1 week ago
good rule of thumb i find who is ever commenting the most usually loses
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
1 week ago
If November goes YES, this should go YES. We literally had invasion headlines. Really the only debate issue is the control thingy, which I think is nonsense, but will be settled for november.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
1 week ago
the vote can easily go p4, in which case, it may go YES after november does. I am a bit confused as the confidence level here on NO.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
1 week ago
lol all the 'profitable whales' are no in the November market. enjoy getting rugged
Iran strike on Israel before November?
Justifax
1 week ago
i guess if iran says it hit a target in israel that works
JJJAY
1 week ago
What if the missile is intercepted out of Israel?
Iran strike on Israel before November?
Justifax
1 week ago
then it goes NO, which is why the price is at 80% despite imminent launch
JJJAY
1 week ago
What if the missile is intercepted out of Israel?
Iran strike on Israel before November?
Justifax
1 week ago
my sense is that unless the airforce & bombing runs are involved, it's going to be largely symbolic
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
1 week ago
if you can back it up with big buys too that would be even better
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
1 week ago
hey folks can you pump more, either side doesn't matter, need more voly
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
1 week ago
be careful you don't get scammed in this market. There are sharps here that know how to manipulate the market to generate fake volatility
ICC issues an arrest warrant for Netanyahu?
Justifax
1 week ago
i will say one thing, after last week, it would take a lot of balls to issue a warrant for israel
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
1 week ago
ouch
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
1 week ago
Lol US msm won't use the term
BlueSky123
1 week ago
Hm, not good enough yet, sorry
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
1 week ago
https://x.com/Jerusalem_Post/status/1840851183654568138
BlueSky123
1 week ago
Any MSM American articles with the word invasion in the headline? If so, I will.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
1 week ago
bluesky said he'd propose this...what's his discord
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
1 week ago
gg
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
1 week ago
hmmmmmmmmmmmm i dunno
semi
1 week ago
That statement was primarily aimed at government ministers, not twitter
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
1 week ago
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1840846257499025588 lol
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
1 week ago
So israel is very unhappy with al the info that got leaked out on this. Probably quite upset with twitter right about now.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
1 week ago
i think we should respect the IDF.. try not to post links about specific troop movements
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
1 week ago
oh oh we're making idf unhapy ..maybe we should tone it down IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari calls on Israelis not to publish troop movements, amid growing indications, reports, and rumors of an imminent Israeli ground incursion into southern Lebanon. "In recent hours there have been many reports and rumors about IDF activity on the Lebanese border. We ask that no reports be circulated about the activities of the forces," Hagari says on X, citing the "security of the forces." "Stick to the official reports only and do not spread irresponsible rumors," he adds. Some Israeli politicians have posted unsubtle hints on social media about the looming ground operation.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
1 week ago
what happens if they don't have autism?
HaterzLoserz
1 week ago
This is what happens when the schizophrenic voices in your head have autism
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
1 week ago
nah this is an invasion
Justifax
1 week ago
as someone who owns no i still think this should go yes if they cross the border
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
1 week ago
i'm not buying more no because there's a very good chance i'll lose it on clarification
Justifax
1 week ago
i am not buying more no! i promise
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
1 week ago
i am not buying more no! i promise
Justifax
1 week ago
as someone who owns no i still think this should go yes if they cross the border
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
1 week ago
as someone who owns no i still think this should go yes if they cross the border
Fed Interest Rates: November 2024
Justifax
1 week ago
car trying to pump and dump the fed. now i've seen it all.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
1 week ago
Car, this is a very dramatic moment in world history - and you want to quibble over rules?
Justifax
1 week ago
An unprecedented military buildup, massive artillery fire, and tanks rolling into lebanon. And car says 'oh that's not an invasion',
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
1 week ago
An unprecedented military buildup, massive artillery fire, and tanks rolling into lebanon. And car says 'oh that's not an invasion',
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
1 week ago
Apprently car wants to rug hl out of like 280K for one of the best bets on poly since kamala. Classy
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
1 week ago
https://x.com/AlArabiya_Brk/status/1840824050827829570 Washington: The Israeli army is now carrying out limited operations inside Lebanese territory #العربية_عاجل
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
1 week ago
It is for sure. I don't disagree.
Phat.
1 week ago
lame scalp ..
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
1 week ago
It's worth notingn that they've already taken control of the borders, the airport, the seaports. They are full on controlling lebanon. Now they invading with ground troops.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
1 week ago
I'll post some more though as it's interesting.
Justifax
1 week ago
This is too stressful for me and I find I'm pumping too much. This is invasion without a doubt.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
1 week ago
This is too stressful for me and I find I'm pumping too much. This is invasion without a doubt.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
1 week ago
Residents within the Lebanese Village of Al-Wazzani, on the Border with the “Closed Military Zone” in the Upper Galilee Region of Northern Israel, are claiming to hear the Sound of Loud Engines heading towards the Border with Southern Lebanon.
Justifax
1 week ago
good ol' sentdefender is tracking it very closely https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1840820518896738590
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
1 week ago
good ol' sentdefender is tracking it very closely https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1840820518896738590
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
1 week ago
Sources to Reuters: Lebanese army withdraws from several sites on the southern border https://x.com/MTVLebanonNews/status/1840818028105380256
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
1 week ago
#Israeli settler group shares ad for properties in #SouthLebanon amid invasion threats
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
1 week ago
ok semi is a sharp heh
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
1 week ago
Car is pumping for exit liquidity. He will spew as much shit as possible to push the price so he can sell at a profit. It's largely how he made his pnl
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
1 week ago
I am the worst paper hander, full of self doubt. I carelessly gambled away like 3K after growing it from $50, so I don't want to repeat that mistake.
Phat.
1 week ago
you keep selling out you little scalper
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
1 week ago
You know you've won when car starts scamming the dispute. That said I sold as I dunno if idf will confirm they've invaded.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
1 week ago
🚨#BREAKING: US State Department spokesman: The US still supports a ceasefire in Lebanon, but military pressure may help promote a diplomatic solution ... lol,
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
1 week ago
Considering the US is the last to know, it's probably already started.
Phat.
1 week ago
They just wafting for Bibi to finish the meeting. its 100% happening today
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Justifax
1 week ago
https://x.com/ABC/status/1840792558265327937
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Justifax
1 week ago
Well, you'd think but I've been through this rodeo for with the Rafah Invasion on a different site and nobody would resolve it because the americans kept on saying it wasn't an invasion.
HaterzLoserz
1 week ago
The spirit of this market was never about Israel wanting to control south lebanon forever. It was always going to be a limited time occupation to fight against Hezb. Any level of control past the border by ground forces like tanks and troops controlling a village for a few hours will suffice. All else is cope.
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Justifax
1 week ago
Worse, you may get a bunch of dumb americans denying it's an invasion similar to what they did with Rafah.
HaterzLoserz
1 week ago
The spirit of this market was never about Israel wanting to control south lebanon forever. It was always going to be a limited time occupation to fight against Hezb. Any level of control past the border by ground forces like tanks and troops controlling a village for a few hours will suffice. All else is cope.
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Justifax
1 week ago
In general, I think it's pretty clear this should go invasion. The problem you're going to deal with is that you might not find any headlines using the i-word.
HaterzLoserz
1 week ago
The spirit of this market was never about Israel wanting to control south lebanon forever. It was always going to be a limited time occupation to fight against Hezb. Any level of control past the border by ground forces like tanks and troops controlling a village for a few hours will suffice. All else is cope.
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Justifax
1 week ago
It's not petty, it's Polymarket have very bad rule writers. They rugged these markets a bit by adding the 'enter' ones.
HaterzLoserz
1 week ago
The spirit of this market was never about Israel wanting to control south lebanon forever. It was always going to be a limited time occupation to fight against Hezb. Any level of control past the border by ground forces like tanks and troops controlling a village for a few hours will suffice. All else is cope.
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Justifax
1 week ago
Nah, few hours isn't right. But they will likely control parts of the border for the entirety of their limited invasion. There needs to supply lines and they need to clear and control that territory for the duration.
HaterzLoserz
1 week ago
The spirit of this market was never about Israel wanting to control south lebanon forever. It was always going to be a limited time occupation to fight against Hezb. Any level of control past the border by ground forces like tanks and troops controlling a village for a few hours will suffice. All else is cope.
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Justifax
1 week ago
It's worth noting that this article from jpost couched everything as 'invasion' - https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-822290
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Justifax
1 week ago
The problem fundamentally is one of 'duration'. Obviously control and intent to control will be satisfied, but what duration does such control have to be for? 1 day? 1 week? 1 year?
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Justifax
1 week ago
don't forget about the mushrooms. seriously alpha
HaterzLoserz
1 week ago
years of operating in crypto markets means im good at finding up to the minute news on topics with high info noise and many moving parts. Many layers moving at once and most are not obvious. Been following Geopolitics heavily since around 2012 and can see through the political/diplo speak. Wont always be right, but the risk/reward here was clearly favorable.