Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?

Justifax

2 months ago

Yeh, this market could spike up quite a bit when Moscow comes back and says "Yes, we agree to a ceasefire*".

2

Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?

Justifax

2 months ago

Lol like I have any clue what I am doing. Critical threats seemed kinda pessimistic tho

1

Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?

Justifax

2 months ago

lol easter is Apr 20th

0

Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?

Justifax

2 months ago

Bloomberg is likely right - at least on their terms. Next we hear will be conditions for a ceasefire from Moscow. Bet accordingly.

0

Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?

Justifax

2 months ago

you can imagine that Putin has a lot of vested interest in seeing Trump succeed. I mean, for real, right. Making trump look bad here seems pretty counter productive.

0

Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?

Justifax

2 months ago

eotd, this market isn't about an actual ceasefire. Just an announcement. Ceasefires are broken all the time.

0

Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?

Justifax

2 months ago

It's possible that Putin comes back with various demands and Trump agrees to them. Lift off sanctions, stop supplying Ukraine with certain weapons, etc.

0

Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?

Justifax

2 months ago

The issue isn't really about Ukraine but unless borders are respected, odds are good countries like Poland are going to get nuclear arms. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/07/world/europe/poland-nuclear-trump-tusk.html Proliferation is bad for everyone.

0

0x60c68b6014d495e03A087F78B6a2cB688d2EAA63-1730596346568

2 months ago

why do pro-ukraine scum hate Trump so much? it's not his fault that your gay country lost 20% of it's territory that you can't get back anymore. in the end, he is gonna stop this war and endless murdering, and then he will get a nobel peace prize

Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?

Justifax

2 months ago

Yeh, just wondering if Poly respects the clause. They can be flaky, right. Presuming just an air and sea ceasefire doesn't count.

1

Justifax

2 months ago

"must pertain to all theaters of military conflict between the two countries" .. How well does poly respect this clause, anyone know?

Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?

Justifax

2 months ago

wsj reporter: https://x.com/mjluxmoore/status/1899903076682916165

1

Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?

Justifax

2 months ago

"must pertain to all theaters of military conflict between the two countries" .. How well does poly respect this clause, anyone know?

1

Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?

Justifax

2 months ago

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-07/russia-s-putin-is-said-to-be-ready-to-agree-to-ukraine-truce-with-conditions

1

Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?

Justifax

2 months ago

Yeh, I was mostly kidding, but betting against trump has been poor EV lately. I think Russia won't reject it outright though but with no serious intention of agreeing.

1

Justifax

2 months ago

How could anyone doubt that Trump would not bring world peace and personally stop WW3. How many times did he tell us he would do it!?

Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?

Justifax

2 months ago

How could anyone doubt that Trump would not bring world peace and personally stop WW3. How many times did he tell us he would do it!?

5

Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?

Justifax

2 months ago

THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, UNITED KINGDOM, FRANCE, ONTARIO, SINGAPORE, POLAND, THAILAND, BELGIUM, TAIWAN,

1

Women4MAGA

2 months ago

My IP is from the UK. I should be able to use this site! D:

Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?

Justifax

2 months ago

They will be too afraid of Trump to break the peace. Not required!

2

jsjr

2 months ago

lol only 8 cent for Trump sending peace keepers https://polymarket.com/event/trump-agrees-to-send-us-peacekeeping-force-to-ukraine/trump-agrees-to-send-us-peacekeeping-force-to-ukraine?tid=1741732378283

Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?

Justifax

2 months ago

https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1899535976529346606 Nobel Peace Prize incoming!

0

Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?

Justifax

2 months ago

Ah, if you're on a US ip addr you can't use the site.

0

Justifax

2 months ago

Yikes, serious polyscam potential here. What if Russia agrees but keeps bombing. Like in Mars Attacks (great movie) .. "We come in peace, we are your friends!" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_vUrAMxmO_A

Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?

Justifax

2 months ago

Yikes, serious polyscam potential here. What if Russia agrees but keeps bombing. Like in Mars Attacks (great movie) .. "We come in peace, we are your friends!" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_vUrAMxmO_A

0

Will Trump end USAID in first 100 days?

Justifax

2 months ago

Retards on poly love the scam markets

2

Will Trump end USAID in first 100 days?

Justifax

2 months ago

Lol, good chance you're going to get polyscammed

0

constitutional

2 months ago

All Trump needs to close USAID is Congress to agree to it since Republicans hold the Majority it is Entirely Possaible, especially in lght of all the waste Fraud and Corruption and the fact it is what the people want and expect

Who will acquire TikTok?

Justifax

2 months ago

market should be called "who will contribute $5 or more to help acquire tiktok"

3

Who will acquire TikTok?

Justifax

2 months ago

lul. idiotic market. I'm sure oracle will pay like $5 and this could resolve to yes.

0

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

2 months ago

absent some shocking scandal, yes, they're all getting confirmed

0

garbohydrates

2 months ago

Someone smarter than me please correct me if I’m wrong but aren’t the rest of the nominees a done deal? If Hegseth, Tulsi and RFK went through then the rest of them will for sure

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

2 months ago

I imagine that's why they're all priced at 99c

0

garbohydrates

2 months ago

Someone smarter than me please correct me if I’m wrong but aren’t the rest of the nominees a done deal? If Hegseth, Tulsi and RFK went through then the rest of them will for sure

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

2 months ago

Who's the idiot buying with lots of different wallets. Lol

1

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

2 months ago

honeymoon is over .. that was quick https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/12/business/us-cpi-consumer-inflation-january/index.html

0

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

2 months ago

If they do that, they are no longer allowed to call themselves a member of the democratic nations.

0

Justifax

2 months ago

lol vibes of 1984 https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/11/media/ap-blocked-from-oval-office/index.html

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

2 months ago

The govt is allowed to control its own speech. They are not allowed to control the free press, however.

0

Justifax

2 months ago

lol vibes of 1984 https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/11/media/ap-blocked-from-oval-office/index.html

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

2 months ago

I will say that banning AP is a step too far and worthy of calling out as a very serious overstep and infringement on free speech.

0

Justifax

2 months ago

the new woke: calling it 'gulf of america'. this is what woke does, control the language to control how people think

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

2 months ago

Obama also stretched the boundaries of EOs, and so did biden with his vaccine mandate and student loans. All presidents test this. There are branches of govt for a reason.

0

Justifax

2 months ago

the new woke: calling it 'gulf of america'. this is what woke does, control the language to control how people think

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

2 months ago

What you are unable to conceive of is that the US is a democracy and Trump won the popular vote. In 2 years, there will be another vote and if he doesn't deliver, he will lose the house. There is also a system of courts and judges which ensure that his EOs do not overstep his constitutional powers.

0

Justifax

2 months ago

the new woke: calling it 'gulf of america'. this is what woke does, control the language to control how people think

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

2 months ago

Your brain is too small to deal with the popper paradox. I get it. You are overwhelmed as soon as something gets complicated.

0

Justifax

2 months ago

the new woke: calling it 'gulf of america'. this is what woke does, control the language to control how people think

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

2 months ago

there are pros and cons to everything. looking at the world as black and white is retarded

0

Justifax

2 months ago

the new woke: calling it 'gulf of america'. this is what woke does, control the language to control how people think

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

2 months ago

the new woke: calling it 'gulf of america'. this is what woke does, control the language to control how people think

0

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

2 months ago

isn't this the whole complaint against the woke mind virus? bahaha

0

Justifax

2 months ago

lol vibes of 1984 https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/11/media/ap-blocked-from-oval-office/index.html

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

2 months ago

it's like full ccp type mentality and taiwan. control the people by controlling their speech

0

Justifax

2 months ago

lol vibes of 1984 https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/11/media/ap-blocked-from-oval-office/index.html

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

2 months ago

this is not free speech.

0

Justifax

2 months ago

lol vibes of 1984 https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/11/media/ap-blocked-from-oval-office/index.html

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

2 months ago

lol vibes of 1984 https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/11/media/ap-blocked-from-oval-office/index.html

0

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

assume there are 25 parallel worlds, tulsi gets the nod in all of them except 1 imho.

0

delta-lesson

3 months ago

One of the founders of the DNI was Collins, her yes vote is very very very important. I don’t see Murk opposing her, and I don’t see Curtis risking being the only republican to vote No alongside the turtle. I even think there is a higher chance the Turtle votes yes. Change my mind.

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

nah you are very likely right, but how right is the question we answer here

0

delta-lesson

3 months ago

One of the founders of the DNI was Collins, her yes vote is very very very important. I don’t see Murk opposing her, and I don’t see Curtis risking being the only republican to vote No alongside the turtle. I even think there is a higher chance the Turtle votes yes. Change my mind.

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

https://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_votes/vote1191/vote_119_1_00048.htm cruz made the loefller vote, hmmmm

0

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

Mike Huckabee level.. who knew

1

wassup...

3 months ago

so Tulsi is more likely than Kash and Lori now.

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

yeh, rfk is probably the most disruptive thing Trump is doing so far

2

Justifax

3 months ago

the thing about rfk is how do dems not vote for the guy. he's like trying to reduce corporate influence over the food supply. something the left have been trying to do forever

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

his position on vaccines is scientific and not dogmatic. yes, this means some uneducated people will doubt vaccines more, but maybe they should educated

1

Justifax

3 months ago

the thing about rfk is how do dems not vote for the guy. he's like trying to reduce corporate influence over the food supply. something the left have been trying to do forever

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

the thing about rfk is how do dems not vote for the guy. he's like trying to reduce corporate influence over the food supply. something the left have been trying to do forever

6

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

there is ev at 8% though, imho. but gun to head, she will get confirmed.

0

0x4395bF8fdBE6B3A7F30D26D7

3 months ago

Why did Tulsi’s odds go up so much. Does she have the votes to be confirmed with Collins voting yes?

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

yes

0

0x4395bF8fdBE6B3A7F30D26D7

3 months ago

Why did Tulsi’s odds go up so much. Does she have the votes to be confirmed with Collins voting yes?

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

Yeh, it's a bit high

0

0x4395bF8fdBE6B3A7F30D26D7

3 months ago

Why did Tulsi’s odds go up so much. Does she have the votes to be confirmed with Collins voting yes?

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

yeah copytraders have got lazy thinking just betting blindly against maga because it paid out for them in the past

3

Flipadelphia

3 months ago

A reminder that if you had a pet monkey buying Yes on any vaguely trump affiliated market it would outperform 99% of Traders on this platform. GG Tulsi, copytraders hit hardest

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

it's the full throated support. Collins is a cheer leader at this point. You'd have to be pretty RINO to vote left of Collins

1

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

well the baserate still stands, nobody has lost on policy in 100 years

0

QuteAnon

3 months ago

So I was right that Tulsi was safer than RFK but I probably still lose lol

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

Heh, you forgot to arb them

0

QuteAnon

3 months ago

So I was right that Tulsi was safer than RFK but I probably still lose lol

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

it's not weird, it's because the copytraders are largely libtards who have been making a lot of money off maga enthusiasts past few years

3

nicekitty

3 months ago

Wild seeing so many people with positive pnl’s lose money on this question, and a number of people with negative pnl’s get into positive territory

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

cnn was goat this time, imho. they called both collins and amplified rogin

0

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

what's funny about this is that it was all announced by libtard journalists and the copytraders ignored it, usually they eat that shit up

0

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

DNI just isn't the hill to die on, nobody cares

2

Justifax

3 months ago

eotd, this is why I flipped: "“The Office of the Director of National Intelligence … has become far larger than it was designed to be, and Ms. Gabbard shares my vision of returning the agency to its intended size.”

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

eotd, this is why I flipped: "“The Office of the Director of National Intelligence … has become far larger than it was designed to be, and Ms. Gabbard shares my vision of returning the agency to its intended size.”

1

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

ok now we need to get bernie to vote for tulsi and all will be good with the world

4

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

aahahahah dumfuq copytraders

1

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

a mulvaney type exit out of committee is not impossible

0

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

The two have quite a history actually, so sure why not

1

Justifax

3 months ago

lol someone bought 490K bernie voting for Gabbard. https://polymarket.com/event/which-senators-will-vote-to-confirm-tulsi-gabbard?tid=1738562197543

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

lol someone bought 490K bernie voting for Gabbard. https://polymarket.com/event/which-senators-will-vote-to-confirm-tulsi-gabbard?tid=1738562197543

0

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

intel chair is more enthusiastic than health chair

0

QuteAnon

3 months ago

Gut tells me Gabbard is safer than RFK. Am I onto something here or just tarded?

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

I just want to see the copytraders BTFO

5

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

Lol.

0

delta-lesson

3 months ago

https://www.axios.com/2025/02/01/trump-tulsi-gabbard-senate-intelligence

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

Nah, she'll probably lose confirmation just like all those other nominees throughout history that have lost votes because of aggressive questioning in the hearings.

3

delta-lesson

3 months ago

https://www.axios.com/2025/02/01/trump-tulsi-gabbard-senate-intelligence

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

Woah, hold up. ""The president isn't really talking about pardoning Snowden, but if that's a guarantee they want to get Tulsi confirmed, the president will have those conversations," the White House adviser said."

0

delta-lesson

3 months ago

https://www.axios.com/2025/02/01/trump-tulsi-gabbard-senate-intelligence

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

Yes, generally this is definitely true. Trump is quite unique however

0

Kysi

3 months ago

everyone holding a no is either a swing trader or delusional, the hearings are just theater and good for media clickbait titles, its all predetermined behind closed doors long ago

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

I dunno, 50 50 seems reasonable. Last time a nominee lost on policy was 100 years ago. If they don't flame out on some personal failing, it'd be pretty rare for them to lose otherwise

1

worldkoala

3 months ago

Gabbard seems more at risk than this market implies. It looks like too many no holders wanting to get out of their positions are holding it down.

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

Not sure about the floor vote, but I'd be surprised at this point if she doesn't make it out of committee ..https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2025/02/01/exclusive-tom-cotton-dismisses-media-speculation-confirmations-not-making-it-through/

3

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

How come?

0

MtrxZ

3 months ago

After more than 3 years on polymarket degen gambling with you, my time has come. I made friends and enemy along the way, made and lost money, saw people lose their life savings and other win enough to retire. I had a great time. But all good things come to an end. I leave polymarket today. Goodbye.

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

https://www.aol.com/hawley-gabbard-nomination-may-jeopardy-130400187.html 50 50

1

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

Well, I guess if they don't confirm his noms, he could just start firing everyone

3

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

maga vrs the copy traders, who will win

1

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

He alsoo promised he'd put a libertarian in his cabinet. He's delivering on all of his promises.

0

delta-lesson

3 months ago

https://youtube.com/shorts/3tUbct-WUiI?feature=shared More pressure from Vance.

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

Trump isn't a traitor, he's a jingoist who subscribes to Machiavellian political philosophy.

0

delta-lesson

3 months ago

https://youtube.com/shorts/3tUbct-WUiI?feature=shared More pressure from Vance.

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

there is a 3rd way, confirm but damage tulsi so much she has zero suction with the ic

0

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

kinda hoping and vibing murk will vote yes for gabbard. girl power!

0

Justifax

3 months ago

curtis, mitch, probably murk, and who else? if collins is sounding positive AND votes yes, seems unlikely no on the floor

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

maybe young, using the secret vote as cover for why he changed his mind

0

Justifax

3 months ago

curtis, mitch, probably murk, and who else? if collins is sounding positive AND votes yes, seems unlikely no on the floor

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

curtis, mitch, probably murk, and who else? if collins is sounding positive AND votes yes, seems unlikely no on the floor

0

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

sounds like more projection.

2

Justifax

3 months ago

people complain about my posts, but you'll find there is a very high correlation of volume and my posting. posting news and links and alpha gets a lot of people coming to polymarket and involved.

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

you are probably a scammer, so that means everyone else is. it's a moral imperative, gambling without providing context to me feels like something only the most worthless people in the world would do

2

Justifax

3 months ago

people complain about my posts, but you'll find there is a very high correlation of volume and my posting. posting news and links and alpha gets a lot of people coming to polymarket and involved.

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

anyone who bets on poly has some degree of adhd

0

Justifax

3 months ago

people complain about my posts, but you'll find there is a very high correlation of volume and my posting. posting news and links and alpha gets a lot of people coming to polymarket and involved.

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

people complain about my posts, but you'll find there is a very high correlation of volume and my posting. posting news and links and alpha gets a lot of people coming to polymarket and involved.

0

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

it's possible folks are reticent to say anything because they don't want to leak what was said in the scif. any delta between their public comments and now can be used to determine sciff report. so cornyn's very brief 'i consent' makes sense.

0

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

curtis is very cheap in the other market, if so

0

Justifax

3 months ago

collins is a yes in committee, probably floor too. this is very 50 50 for tulsi though. curtis could easily go sideways

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

as always, keep an eye on k8lshi, manifold, the other markets on poly. not huge alpha, but some

0

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

collins is a yes in committee, probably floor too. this is very 50 50 for tulsi though. curtis could easily go sideways

0

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

no they are from the 21st

0

Justifax

3 months ago

lol 2 junior reports write a hit piece at wapo without any new info, oh noes

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

something to keep in mind, dni is not a very consequential role

7

Justifax

3 months ago

again, lead wapo security analyst journo at wapo says tulsi is winning the committee vote: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W0gQ4fhoKMQ

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

he said it twice, in fact

6

Justifax

3 months ago

again, lead wapo security analyst journo at wapo says tulsi is winning the committee vote: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W0gQ4fhoKMQ

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

again, lead wapo security analyst journo at wapo says tulsi is winning the committee vote: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W0gQ4fhoKMQ

8

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

this is all old shit from the 21st repurposed, clearly you're not a reader

0

Justifax

3 months ago

lol 2 junior reports write a hit piece at wapo without any new info, oh noes

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

lol 2 junior reports write a hit piece at wapo without any new info, oh noes

1

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

lol not exactly ringing, but i'll stick with rogin

0

LibtardTM

3 months ago

https://x.com/JohnCornyn/status/1885128027257839627

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

yeh, gabbard is a maverick

0

LibtardTM

3 months ago

https://x.com/MeghanMcCain/status/1885055621315080368

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

strauss is weird though, cause i think everyone hated hiim

0

Justifax

3 months ago

again, the baserate is brutal for no. it's been 100 years since a candidate lost on policy

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unsuccessful_nominations_to_the_Cabinet_of_the_United_States

0

Justifax

3 months ago

again, the baserate is brutal for no. it's been 100 years since a candidate lost on policy

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

again, the baserate is brutal for no. it's been 100 years since a candidate lost on policy

1

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

rogin, these degens have no faith in you. don't fail me buddy

1

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

yeh murk and mitch seem unlikely

1

Justifax

3 months ago

cnn is saying collins is making positive noises https://x.com/mkraju/status/1885122910458667363 crazy

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

rogin is literally paid his salary to have sources and report on them. failing here on tv would be a very bad career move

1

Justifax

3 months ago

Josh rogin, wapo security analyst, states his sources say she won't lose any votes in committee. hattip trumptoshi below

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

cnn is saying collins is making positive noises https://x.com/mkraju/status/1885122910458667363 crazy

1

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

actually, shit, this takes out collins, so would need 2 votes after murk and mitch

1

Justifax

3 months ago

voting yes to approve in committee and publicly no on the floor would be weird, imho. if it was like the mulvaney vote, that's different. imho, the 4th vote is going to have to come from a curtis or something

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

voting yes to approve in committee and publicly no on the floor would be weird, imho. if it was like the mulvaney vote, that's different. imho, the 4th vote is going to have to come from a curtis or something

3

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

be quite surprised if this doesn't get out of committee, rogin kinda put his rep on the line here. journalists quote anon sources all the time and if they fail, than the journo fails as well

3

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

gop votes, obv

2

Justifax

3 months ago

Josh rogin, wapo security analyst, states his sources say she won't lose any votes in committee. hattip trumptoshi below

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

Josh rogin, wapo security analyst, states his sources say she won't lose any votes in committee. hattip trumptoshi below

3

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

I haven't really changed my opinion. I just think this is more 50 50

1

Justifax

3 months ago

Cornyn was difficult in the hearing. His yes vote also matters because by announcing it, he is helping publicizing any No votes. Basically breaking the secrecy rule and putting pressure

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

Cornyn was difficult in the hearing. His yes vote also matters because by announcing it, he is helping publicizing any No votes. Basically breaking the secrecy rule and putting pressure

3

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

Wild stuff, for real. https://x.com/cgtnamerica/status/1885128964592546292 Imho, this should be more 50 50

0

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

White trash culture is just as bad if not worse than inner city culture. Eg, mtg

0

Justifax

3 months ago

The penalty for treason in the US is the death penalty. Did they seriously think Tulsi was supposed to be judge jury and executioner in that confirmation hearing? IMHO, Bennet really came off as one of those newbie inner city congress critters who only get elected because they shout a lot. I was totally embarrassed for the guy

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

Secret vote issue doesn't matter and changes nothing. But yes, several republicans were clearly not supportive.

0

n/a

3 months ago

Very clear Tulsi is toast. Many GOP senators (not just Collins) were as hostile to her as Democrats and showing smirks, teaching the definition of a "traitor", asking about her basic allegiances, etc. And that was the public hearing - think what happened in the closed one... My take is that everyone knows that Tulsi will be voted down, including Tulsi herself, so she was auditioning not for DNI but for her next anchor job at Newsmax, OAN or another wacky MAGA channel. That's why also she refused to tell that Snowden is a traitor. Why else would she... It's even likely that the committee vote against her, in secret, won't just be 9-8 but maybe 11-6 or more, to make it perfectly clear that there is no path for her on the Senate floor and at the same time keep the names of those who voted her down secret from MAGA reprisals. And Trump will probably be too busy with his tariffs and their fallout on markets around that moment to bother...

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unsuccessful_nominations_to_the_Cabinet_of_the_United_States OK, 100 years. Warren in 1925

0

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

If Tulsi is voted down it'd be the first nominee to lose based on policy in like 200 years or something crazy like that.

0

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

White trash culture is just as bad if not worse than inner city culture. Eg, mtg

0

Justifax

3 months ago

The penalty for treason in the US is the death penalty. Did they seriously think Tulsi was supposed to be judge jury and executioner in that confirmation hearing? IMHO, Bennet really came off as one of those newbie inner city congress critters who only get elected because they shout a lot. I was totally embarrassed for the guy

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

it's more a cultural than a racist thing. There are many very bright african americans who didn't grow up in the inner city or adopt that culture.

0

Justifax

3 months ago

The penalty for treason in the US is the death penalty. Did they seriously think Tulsi was supposed to be judge jury and executioner in that confirmation hearing? IMHO, Bennet really came off as one of those newbie inner city congress critters who only get elected because they shout a lot. I was totally embarrassed for the guy

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

If they do vote her down, I hope they are respectful in their statements.

1

Justifax

3 months ago

The penalty for treason in the US is the death penalty. Did they seriously think Tulsi was supposed to be judge jury and executioner in that confirmation hearing? IMHO, Bennet really came off as one of those newbie inner city congress critters who only get elected because they shout a lot. I was totally embarrassed for the guy

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

I agree Tulsi is not an optimal candidate, but she handled herself very well in the face of completely unreasonable people. That alone takes nerves of steel and a useful quality for DNI when everything is going crazy.

2

Justifax

3 months ago

The penalty for treason in the US is the death penalty. Did they seriously think Tulsi was supposed to be judge jury and executioner in that confirmation hearing? IMHO, Bennet really came off as one of those newbie inner city congress critters who only get elected because they shout a lot. I was totally embarrassed for the guy

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

The penalty for treason in the US is the death penalty. Did they seriously think Tulsi was supposed to be judge jury and executioner in that confirmation hearing? IMHO, Bennet really came off as one of those newbie inner city congress critters who only get elected because they shout a lot. I was totally embarrassed for the guy

2

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

Senators just jelly of how successful she's been

1

Justifax

3 months ago

Hope Tulsi gets confirmed, but not super optimistic. I thought she rocked it

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

Hope Tulsi gets confirmed, but not super optimistic. I thought she rocked it

3

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

But but Lincoln is the #1 rated US president!! Lol

1

Justifax

3 months ago

Lincoln's first plan was to mass deport african slaves. But when they started dying en masse in Haiti he gave up on that plan.

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

Lincoln's first plan was to mass deport african slaves. But when they started dying en masse in Haiti he gave up on that plan.

1

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

just want to get lei'd

1

Justifax

3 months ago

the snowden thing is super weird choice to freak out about. it's literally why trump appointed her, to protect against 4th amendment violations

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

the snowden thing is super weird choice to freak out about. it's literally why trump appointed her, to protect against 4th amendment violations

3

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

it's like dems are whining 'this is not entertainment tv' and then bennet goes and pulls that shit. lol. they are all psychopathic liars

3

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

love Tulsi, love her. But geez these dudes are grinding her

0

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

she's killing it

4

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

not ignoring withdraw. reason is nom votes don't fail is prez withdraws first. if he new tulsi would fail, he would have withdrawn her like gaetz

1

Justifax

3 months ago

best yes argument: only 2 failed noms in last 70 years, best no: new orleans

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

How do you have the time to worry about why i have the time?

1

Justifax

3 months ago

the more i look into the dni role, the more i realize that any vote against her will be more performative than for any real reason.

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

Just how I roll man. It's a good sign we have free speech

1

Justifax

3 months ago

the more i look into the dni role, the more i realize that any vote against her will be more performative than for any real reason.

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

sure, gabbard has issues, but wow the dni role seems pointless

0

Justifax

3 months ago

the more i look into the dni role, the more i realize that any vote against her will be more performative than for any real reason.

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

the more i look into the dni role, the more i realize that any vote against her will be more performative than for any real reason.

1

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

but yeah, it's funny how pointless dni is given they don't really have any real accountability

0

Justifax

3 months ago

best yes argument: only 2 failed noms in last 70 years, best no: new orleans

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

sure fbi and dhs are responsible tactically for new orleans, but i think the argument will be that given it happened they need a dni that can help proactively ensure that doesn't happen again

0

Justifax

3 months ago

best yes argument: only 2 failed noms in last 70 years, best no: new orleans

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

best yes argument: only 2 failed noms in last 70 years, best no: new orleans

0

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

Lol, leftwing media must be pro Tulsi or something. They literally don't realize how much they are helping her.

2

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

Yeh, the baserate is pretty scary for the no case. Nominees that get this far never lose, except in two cases in the last 70 years.

1

Justifax

3 months ago

A sorta problem with the NO case for Gabbard. Nobody takes DNI seriously. So why would Senators spend political capital on voting her down? Flip side: Might be a good show that does little to damage Trump.

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

Her job is to influence the president, but for real, he has shown on the issue of intel he can't really be influenced. So really, they'd just be voting for a paper trail of sorts I guess. Which is something. Also, of course, Tulsi would have access to all intel I suspect. Seems odd if they kept secrets from the DNI

1

Justifax

3 months ago

A sorta problem with the NO case for Gabbard. Nobody takes DNI seriously. So why would Senators spend political capital on voting her down? Flip side: Might be a good show that does little to damage Trump.

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

A sorta problem with the NO case for Gabbard. Nobody takes DNI seriously. So why would Senators spend political capital on voting her down? Flip side: Might be a good show that does little to damage Trump.

0

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

What's interesting though is calibrating Media and their portrayal of RFK versus say Gabbard. Clearly they love spicing things up

1

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

Fwiw, k-street always saw RFK as the most likely to be confirmed of all of Trump's set of wild noms..

0

DeepSeek banned in US before July?

Justifax

3 months ago

The rules here are so incredibly moronic. US companies are already hosting deepseek and are unlikely to be banned. I warned them about this.

0

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

They should just put testosterone in the water supply and get it over with. I mean, come on already.

4

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

Oh yeah, all about the hearings at this point. Will try to realtime market make.

0

Justifax

3 months ago

More NYT hit pieces. I wonder if they realize this probably ups her chances of confirmation. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/28/us/politics/tulsi-gabbard-trump-intel-pick-watch-list.html

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

For Collins to reject her because she's not qualified is one thing, for her to reject her because of NYT hit piece is something else.

2

Justifax

3 months ago

More NYT hit pieces. I wonder if they realize this probably ups her chances of confirmation. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/28/us/politics/tulsi-gabbard-trump-intel-pick-watch-list.html

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

Hmm normally you might be right, but I think Trump is using a Tulsi rejection as a potential weapon against the 'deep state'. This is playing very well into his narrative control.

1

Justifax

3 months ago

More NYT hit pieces. I wonder if they realize this probably ups her chances of confirmation. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/28/us/politics/tulsi-gabbard-trump-intel-pick-watch-list.html

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

More NYT hit pieces. I wonder if they realize this probably ups her chances of confirmation. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/28/us/politics/tulsi-gabbard-trump-intel-pick-watch-list.html

3

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

Good stuff, most def seeing this play out.

0

MalikNabers

3 months ago

I like how people initially bumped tulsi on news they could try to appoint her without passing committee… when really the admission that she is very shaky to pass committee at all. Which is awful news for her.

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

https://www.c-span.org/event/senate-committee/director-of-natl-intelligence-nominee-tulsi-gabbard-testifies-at-confirmation-hearing/430423

0

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

https://www.c-span.org/event/senate-committee/hhs-sec-nominee-rfk-jr-testifies-at-confirmation-hearing/430405

0

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

Very 50 50 at this point. Should be an interesting hearing tho

0

Justifax

3 months ago

My issues with the RFK notards is they aren't very committed. :(

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

I'd like to buy RFK YES but it's too expensive.

0

Justifax

3 months ago

My issues with the RFK notards is they aren't very committed. :(

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

My issues with the RFK notards is they aren't very committed. :(

0

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

Except this isn't news. Caroline had already spoken out against RFK Jr at length.

0

garbohydrates

3 months ago

Jack Schlossberg and his mom, Caroline, just dropped a nuke of a video exposing RFK. He might be cooked. https://x.com/jbkschlossberg/status/1884294384474046900

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

The question really is did they tell Trump to drop her and he ignored him thinking he could force her through or something? I dunno

0

Justifax

3 months ago

Flip side, of course, Tulsi is most def a risk for ignoring Russian election interference which could be a step too far for some republican senators. Should be interesting.

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

Flip side, of course, Tulsi is most def a risk for ignoring Russian election interference which could be a step too far for some republican senators. Should be interesting.

0

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

I think this is what it is all boiling down to in the end. Folks are worried Tulsi will ignore Russian election interference and bots. OK, but I don't think that is a secret and was obviously the reason for her appointment in the beginning. If they had a problem with it, they should have said it in the beginning instead of dragging it out. Marco might have been the compromise as he weilds very significant influence over NATO and he is most def a hawk.

0

Justifax

3 months ago

I think also that the senators on intel have to appreciate that Marco is in state. He will draw the necessary red lines that ensure that the US does not compromise beyond what it should.

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

lol, 'secret', right.

0

Justifax

3 months ago

My guess is if Tulsi doesn't make it out of committee, it won't be because of Collins alone.

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

I think also that the senators on intel have to appreciate that Marco is in state. He will draw the necessary red lines that ensure that the US does not compromise beyond what it should.

1

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

So my general sense is that the Senators on intel have to look at this with clear eyes. They have to see Trump's popular vote. They have to realize that a part of that mandate was to bring peace to the world. Tulsi is compromised, not explicitly, but implicitly - sure, but sometimes we have to make compromises to avoid endless and unnecessary conflict.

0

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

There is that o'reilly thing, but meh

1

Justifax

3 months ago

I was trying to think of why and why not Tulsi will be nominated. All issues aside, I think it largely comes down to the Russian question. Tulsi is not in some explicit conspiracy with Russia, I can promise you that, but I think she realizes that the narratives are backing her play as long as she espouses certain view points. And this is quite profitable for her, most likely. Any other read would be gullible. The question really is, will this help segue into peace? Isn't that part of Trump's mandate, to bring peace to the the Ukraine Russian war?

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

https://punchbowl.news/wp-content/uploads/The-Canvass-Gabbard.pdf https://www.ft.com/content/d1128fd7-f5f0-45b0-9a05-1b7c63cdb1a4 All I got

1

Justifax

3 months ago

I was trying to think of why and why not Tulsi will be nominated. All issues aside, I think it largely comes down to the Russian question. Tulsi is not in some explicit conspiracy with Russia, I can promise you that, but I think she realizes that the narratives are backing her play as long as she espouses certain view points. And this is quite profitable for her, most likely. Any other read would be gullible. The question really is, will this help segue into peace? Isn't that part of Trump's mandate, to bring peace to the the Ukraine Russian war?

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

I was trying to think of why and why not Tulsi will be nominated. All issues aside, I think it largely comes down to the Russian question. Tulsi is not in some explicit conspiracy with Russia, I can promise you that, but I think she realizes that the narratives are backing her play as long as she espouses certain view points. And this is quite profitable for her, most likely. Any other read would be gullible. The question really is, will this help segue into peace? Isn't that part of Trump's mandate, to bring peace to the the Ukraine Russian war?

0

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

nah

0

supertantrum

3 months ago

Stop yapping

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

And say what you will about the bots, the reality is that https://ucdp.uu.se/exploratory is undeniable. Millions have died in the Ukraine war. And for what, really? In Crimea they were all russians anyways and any study of voting history will make you realize that eastern Ukraine had a largely pro-russian populace. What was the point of all this death? Russia is to blame, of course, but I don't think I'd put the blame on all those stupid russian kids that got dragged into the meat grinder.

0

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

I am largely a pacifist and dislike war of all kinds, though I understand the theory of peace through strength. I have a very difficult time with the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but I also like to remind people that the US very stupidly invaded Iraq and likely in many ways set the stage for the invasion of Ukraine. Where does this end? I think it's fair to say that there are very likely forces at play which are supporting narratives in social media, and the one I just provided is one you've likely heard before. A lot of it is propaganda, for sure, but propaganda is coming from all sides. There are a lot of actors here which are making bad choices. At some point, you have to navigate your way through it and pick the least worst option. It's not that we are falling victim to the bots in some gullible way - we are just realizing that some sacrifices will need to be made to attain a degree of peace.

1

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

Now imagine, for a moment, that you are a politician in the land of modern social media. And furthermore, imagine that this media is littered with bots promoting various narratives. Can you think of a way to get those bots working for you without actually asking them to?

1

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

I've often said the only way to do a conspiracy is via the 'implicit' quid pro quo. Anything else is very incompetent. Leaving smoking gun trails will just incriminate you. I've seen this in corporate settings where people will back your play but if you expressively ask them to they'll roll their eyes. Blagojevich is famous for stupidly trying to explicitly sell a senate seat. But really, his only crime was he said the quiet part outloud. Every other governor knows how to do those deals without actually having to say the words.

0

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

Odds are pretty high she will if one of the others does. She won't do it alone tho

0

Justifax

3 months ago

My guess is if Tulsi doesn't make it out of committee, it won't be because of Collins alone.

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

So really you're betting one of the other republicans votes her down. Young, Cornyn, Risch.

0

Justifax

3 months ago

My guess is if Tulsi doesn't make it out of committee, it won't be because of Collins alone.

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

My guess is if Tulsi doesn't make it out of committee, it won't be because of Collins alone.

2

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

Come on brucey baby, you engaged. Tell us who you think will be confirmed.

0

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

yeh the other markets price weirdly on a frequent basis, but thin books. Great op for more market makers tho!

0

Kysi

3 months ago

the other rfk market is undervalued, trump said he will use recess appointments if necessary either way tomorrow we will se

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

And gukesh on the championship. I'm like a savant.

0

Justifax

3 months ago

It's possible that Trump isn't actually serious about Tulsi or RFK and is only delivering on his promise of a cabinet position. Tulsi in DNI would make sense because she is so unsuitable and this gives Trump an out when she's not confirmed. RFK too perhaps.

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

Also, you're wrong on the chess thing. I literally called all the winners for blitz and rapid.

0

Justifax

3 months ago

It's possible that Trump isn't actually serious about Tulsi or RFK and is only delivering on his promise of a cabinet position. Tulsi in DNI would make sense because she is so unsuitable and this gives Trump an out when she's not confirmed. RFK too perhaps.

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

I literally said I agree with Tulsi on her views. Are you arguing against that?

0

Justifax

3 months ago

It's possible that Trump isn't actually serious about Tulsi or RFK and is only delivering on his promise of a cabinet position. Tulsi in DNI would make sense because she is so unsuitable and this gives Trump an out when she's not confirmed. RFK too perhaps.

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

Which part are you arguing against? The part where I said I don't actually believe it?

0

Justifax

3 months ago

It's possible that Trump isn't actually serious about Tulsi or RFK and is only delivering on his promise of a cabinet position. Tulsi in DNI would make sense because she is so unsuitable and this gives Trump an out when she's not confirmed. RFK too perhaps.

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

Lul

0

Justifax

3 months ago

Wyn, what is your game. It's like you post the most clueless stuff in order to suck people in to fading you

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

Another sign of your gullbility is you don't realize is that the OP is scamming you by not telling you what his alpha really is and instead is just making up bullshit.

0

BuckMySalls

3 months ago

rfk to get through because fat and unhealthy americans are a business. tulsi to get smacked down because going against the intel community makes you a traitor. its as simple as that folks.

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

People who attribute pnl volume ratio are totally clueless. You can generate millions of volume in minutes on poly. What matters, if you knew anything about investing, is the various indicators of smooth portfolio growth. Car, as much as a scammer as he is, is one of the best traders on poly. In fact, more volume can lead to smoother, more predictable growth. Which is what you want. Not survivorship bias which is what your pnl volume ratio indicates.

1

BuckMySalls

3 months ago

rfk to get through because fat and unhealthy americans are a business. tulsi to get smacked down because going against the intel community makes you a traitor. its as simple as that folks.

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

Gabbard has one thing going for her, other than Trump’s support. She’ll be introduced at her confirmation hearing by former Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.), who chaired the Senate Intelligence Committee before he retired from Congress in 2023. Burr, who voted to convict Trump in his 2021 Senate impeachment trial following the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on Congress, is well liked by GOP senators, and his support for Gabbard could calm his party’s nerves. https://uk.news.yahoo.com/donald-trump-most-controversial-cabinet-104516553.html

2

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

It would be wild!

0

Justifax

3 months ago

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-recess-appointments-adjourning-congress/ I mean, it's interesting I guess. I'm sure trump would love to try something like this. Not sure he could get votes in the house for it though, and that's ignoring SCOTUS ruling against him later on. I mean, again, 53 to 47 majority. Recess should not be required, plus all the top security folks have been confirmed.

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-recess-appointments-adjourning-congress/ I mean, it's interesting I guess. I'm sure trump would love to try something like this. Not sure he could get votes in the house for it though, and that's ignoring SCOTUS ruling against him later on. I mean, again, 53 to 47 majority. Recess should not be required, plus all the top security folks have been confirmed.

2

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

and for real, Trump has a 53 to 47 majority. If he can't get his people in clearly there is a problem

1

Justifax

3 months ago

McConnell to step down as U.S. Senate GOP leader but ... Nebraska Examiner Nov 21, 2024 - Kentucky Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell announced Thursday he'll become chairman of the Defense Appropriations Subcommittee and the Rules Committee. They were preprared for any nonsense on recess appts. SCOTUS has blocked this nonsense before and will block it again. Senate is advise and consent all the way.

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/supreme-court-limits-presidents-appointments-power/

1

Justifax

3 months ago

McConnell to step down as U.S. Senate GOP leader but ... Nebraska Examiner Nov 21, 2024 - Kentucky Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell announced Thursday he'll become chairman of the Defense Appropriations Subcommittee and the Rules Committee. They were preprared for any nonsense on recess appts. SCOTUS has blocked this nonsense before and will block it again. Senate is advise and consent all the way.

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

McConnell to step down as U.S. Senate GOP leader but ... Nebraska Examiner Nov 21, 2024 - Kentucky Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell announced Thursday he'll become chairman of the Defense Appropriations Subcommittee and the Rules Committee. They were preprared for any nonsense on recess appts. SCOTUS has blocked this nonsense before and will block it again. Senate is advise and consent all the way.

2

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

Yeh, won't happen. Mitch is in rules and scotus will block.

0

Justifax

3 months ago

for the guy who posted the the o'reilly "alpha" - google bill o'reilly why-pete-hegseth-will-not-be-secretary-of-defense

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

It's a peculiar strategy though as I think it undermines his image of being Influential and powerful, so I dunno if I actually believe it.

0

Justifax

3 months ago

It's possible that Trump isn't actually serious about Tulsi or RFK and is only delivering on his promise of a cabinet position. Tulsi in DNI would make sense because she is so unsuitable and this gives Trump an out when she's not confirmed. RFK too perhaps.

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

It's possible that Trump isn't actually serious about Tulsi or RFK and is only delivering on his promise of a cabinet position. Tulsi in DNI would make sense because she is so unsuitable and this gives Trump an out when she's not confirmed. RFK too perhaps.

0

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

for the guy who posted the the o'reilly "alpha" - google bill o'reilly why-pete-hegseth-will-not-be-secretary-of-defense

0

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

Lol: https://www.forbes.com/sites/lisettevoytko/2020/02/05/the-five-times-susan-collins-has-actually-been-a-swing-vote/

1

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

Also, media loves a good story. Plus I think they're trying to front run polymarket, which is fucking stupid.

0

delta-lesson

3 months ago

Justifax why did you sell again bud?

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

I honestly have no secret alpha. I've posted everything I know. Baserate analysis is that nobody has lost a vote since 1989 and then 1959 before that. Letting Trump have his DNI of choice probably isn't going to be the EOTWD given Ratcliffe is in CIA and Trump just wants Tulsi to be a counterpoint and not much else

2

delta-lesson

3 months ago

Justifax why did you sell again bud?

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

Fredi did that as well. Very clever rope a dope.

0

Justifax

3 months ago

Wyn, what is your game. It's like you post the most clueless stuff in order to suck people in to fading you

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

Wyn is probably some deep insider and he posts dumb shit in order to disguise this and get people to buy NO

0

Justifax

3 months ago

Wyn, what is your game. It's like you post the most clueless stuff in order to suck people in to fading you

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

Wyn, what is your game. It's like you post the most clueless stuff in order to suck people in to fading you

2

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

I'm trying to maintain my savant like record of paper handling. I honestly think there is no equal on Polymarket to my ability to sell the winners.

0

delta-lesson

3 months ago

Justifax why did you sell again bud?

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

He was artificially suppressing the price for real. Not so much anymore.

0

Justifax

3 months ago

Justifax tip: When you see a top holder with like 5x the next holder, that's usually a good fade.

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

If anything, this could force Collins to vote NO because she can't appear to be bullied.

1

jj1970jj

3 months ago

Clearly insiders are worried about Gabbard because they are trying to get Cotton to change the rules in the committee and make the vote public to try and shame Collins into voting yes. I know this article is several hours old, but I was about to go Tulsi green and now I am back to I dont think I am ready yet... https://www.politico.com/news/2025/01/27/tulsi-gabbard-senate-intelligence-committee-vote-006977

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

This seems like stupid drama. Colins has already telegraphed her vote. Like nobody would know?

0

jj1970jj

3 months ago

Clearly insiders are worried about Gabbard because they are trying to get Cotton to change the rules in the committee and make the vote public to try and shame Collins into voting yes. I know this article is several hours old, but I was about to go Tulsi green and now I am back to I dont think I am ready yet... https://www.politico.com/news/2025/01/27/tulsi-gabbard-senate-intelligence-committee-vote-006977

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

Justifax tip: When you see a top holder with like 5x the next holder, that's usually a good fade.

2

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

Grok, Kash Patel: Best Effort Probability Estimation: Considering both the support from Senate Republicans, the lack of explicit opposition, and the reported increase in betting odds, a reasonable estimation would place the likelihood of Kash Patel's confirmation somewhere between 50% to 70%. This range accounts for the political dynamics, the influence of party loyalty in the Senate, and the potential for last-minute shifts in political support or opposition.

0

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

Grok, RFK: Based on the mixed reception and the critical stance of many health professionals and some political figures, a moderate estimation would place his likelihood of confirmation at around 30-40%. This considers the Republican control of the Senate, which might help his nomination, tempered by significant opposition from health experts and potentially some bipartisan political resistance

0

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

Grok: Best Effort Probability Estimation: Considering the opposition from key Republican senators, the vocal concerns from the intelligence community, and her own performance in preparatory meetings, the likelihood of Gabbard's confirmation seems to be less than 50%. If we estimate, without precise data, it might hover around a 40% chance. This estimation assumes that the current trends and reported sentiments remain unchanged and that no significant political maneuvers occur to either sway more senators or mitigate the concerns raised by her critics.

0

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

lol panic

0

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

Lol, no clue if this helps or harms her chances.

0

Justifax

3 months ago

This is crazy. "Tulsi Gabbard was allegedly placed on a terror watchlist and subject to surveillance - then President Trump nominated her to oversee the intelligence community as Director of National Intelligence (DNI). Gabbard will work to 'end the politicization of the intelligence community,” her team told the Caller." https://dailycaller.com/2025/01/27/tulsi-gabbard-quiet-skies-tsa-whistleblowers/ The caller was founded by Tucker.

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

This is crazy. "Tulsi Gabbard was allegedly placed on a terror watchlist and subject to surveillance - then President Trump nominated her to oversee the intelligence community as Director of National Intelligence (DNI). Gabbard will work to 'end the politicization of the intelligence community,” her team told the Caller." https://dailycaller.com/2025/01/27/tulsi-gabbard-quiet-skies-tsa-whistleblowers/ The caller was founded by Tucker.

1

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

No game man, I just pumped Tulsi NO a lot and I don't want to be accused of pumping and dumping when and if I sell the rest. Also, I like Tulsi. Just because we think she's a bad fit for DNI doesn't mean we need to attack her.

0

Justifax

3 months ago

https://x.com/TomCottonAR I agree, Tulsi is most def an out of box politician who doesn't subscribe to group think. But she has passed every clearance examination they've thrown at her. She's a patriot and quite likely right about pretty much everything she says. Knocking out Hussein ended up killing a lot of innocent Iraqi civilians. I suspect the same is going to happen with Assad gone.

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

Just because Tulsi is ill fitted for DNI doesn't mean she's wrong about what she says and thinks.

0

Justifax

3 months ago

Tulsi's views on Russia are not really 'propaganda'. The US was pretty hostile when Russia tried to set up shop in Cuba, so it shouldn't have been a surprise that they got upset that NATO kept encroaching on their side of the world.

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

Tulsi's views on Russia are not really 'propaganda'. The US was pretty hostile when Russia tried to set up shop in Cuba, so it shouldn't have been a surprise that they got upset that NATO kept encroaching on their side of the world.

0

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

https://x.com/TomCottonAR I agree, Tulsi is most def an out of box politician who doesn't subscribe to group think. But she has passed every clearance examination they've thrown at her. She's a patriot and quite likely right about pretty much everything she says. Knocking out Hussein ended up killing a lot of innocent Iraqi civilians. I suspect the same is going to happen with Assad gone.

0

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

I always do this, bro. It's my shtick.

0

Zorroh

3 months ago

Justifax you forgot your pils bro

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

People need to be punished for stupidity, but not via dishonesty.

1

Justifax

3 months ago

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unsuccessful_nominations_to_the_Cabinet_of_the_United_States And before Tower in 1989, it was Strauss in 1959. This is a very rare thing. It's also worth mentioning that if people on Intel had an issue with Gabbard they probably would have told Trump to withdraw her nomination.

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

Yeh, but if news is reporting us and we're reporting them, where does truth come in?

0

Justifax

3 months ago

The risk here is journalists are looking at the odds on polymarket and thinking they have alpha, so they report news that fits that alpha. When in reality it's not quite what is happening. There is still the base rate that no confirmation vote has failed since 1989.

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

No, I am thinking of selling and don't want to be accused of pumping and dumping.

1

Justifax

3 months ago

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unsuccessful_nominations_to_the_Cabinet_of_the_United_States And before Tower in 1989, it was Strauss in 1959. This is a very rare thing. It's also worth mentioning that if people on Intel had an issue with Gabbard they probably would have told Trump to withdraw her nomination.

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

I think you can blame them because prediction markets are based on their reporting. They're just creating a pointless echo chamber.

0

Justifax

3 months ago

The risk here is journalists are looking at the odds on polymarket and thinking they have alpha, so they report news that fits that alpha. When in reality it's not quite what is happening. There is still the base rate that no confirmation vote has failed since 1989.

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unsuccessful_nominations_to_the_Cabinet_of_the_United_States And before Tower in 1989, it was Strauss in 1959. This is a very rare thing. It's also worth mentioning that if people on Intel had an issue with Gabbard they probably would have told Trump to withdraw her nomination.

0

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

The risk here is journalists are looking at the odds on polymarket and thinking they have alpha, so they report news that fits that alpha. When in reality it's not quite what is happening. There is still the base rate that no confirmation vote has failed since 1989.

0

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

This is the same problem as herding in polls. It weeds out all signal.

1

Justifax

3 months ago

https://www.ft.com/content/d1128fd7-f5f0-45b0-9a05-1b7c63cdb1a4 Lol, unreal. Idiot journalist. "Prediction market Polymarket gives Kennedy an 80 per cent chance of being confirmed, compared with almost 100 per cent for nominees such as Scott Bessent, Trump’s pick for Treasury secretary. Tulsi Gabbard, his nominee as intelligence director was on just 51 per cent." This shit has to stop, though I suppose it's a good filter on for which article to ignore as useless BS

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

https://www.ft.com/content/d1128fd7-f5f0-45b0-9a05-1b7c63cdb1a4 Lol, unreal. Idiot journalist. "Prediction market Polymarket gives Kennedy an 80 per cent chance of being confirmed, compared with almost 100 per cent for nominees such as Scott Bessent, Trump’s pick for Treasury secretary. Tulsi Gabbard, his nominee as intelligence director was on just 51 per cent." This shit has to stop, though I suppose it's a good filter on for which article to ignore as useless BS

0

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

Lol, no. I could never sock puppet. I typo constantly and anyone could easily detect it.

1

Justifax

3 months ago

I've noticed a lot of articles are reporting on Polymarket odds. This is wrong and is creating a useless echo chamber. Polymarket's job is to report on the news, not the other way around. Do your jobs and stop looking at poly.

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

I think a lot of the news we're seeing could be echo chamber nonsense. Not reliable.

1

delta-lesson

3 months ago

Justifax? Wtf happened. Report to me.

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

Yeh, high quality journalists are very rare.

2

Justifax

3 months ago

I've noticed a lot of articles are reporting on Polymarket odds. This is wrong and is creating a useless echo chamber. Polymarket's job is to report on the news, not the other way around. Do your jobs and stop looking at poly.

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

I've noticed a lot of articles are reporting on Polymarket odds. This is wrong and is creating a useless echo chamber. Polymarket's job is to report on the news, not the other way around. Do your jobs and stop looking at poly.

2

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

I read that about Cornyn. Link on the Risch thing? It's an interesting point. Tulsi had a tendency to be a huge bridge burner.

0

Justifax

3 months ago

https://ajcongress.org/jewishpoliticalguide/senators/tulsi-gabbard/

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

Well, Collins is now reporting her written answers have her concerned. "But there are a lot of obvious issues. Her answers to the written questions were very hedged on it. I know there’s been a lot of reporting that she’s changed her position. That’s not how I read her answers. I read them as, ‘I’ll take a look at the reforms and see if they meet my concerns,’" she added. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/gabbard-s-path-through-intelligence-committee-narrows-ahead-of-key-hearing/ar-AA1xVWgJ My guess this is behind the drop in the market today.

0

Justifax

3 months ago

https://ajcongress.org/jewishpoliticalguide/senators/tulsi-gabbard/

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

She should have been made ambassador to the UN elevated to a cabinet level position.

0

Justifax

3 months ago

https://ajcongress.org/jewishpoliticalguide/senators/tulsi-gabbard/

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

I was very shocked by the 50-50 vote for Hegseth. I thought it was going to be 51 or 52. Tulsi, imho, is relatively a much greater stretch than Hegseth and a much easier no vote because nobody will care. DNI is a weird job that doesn't have any management power but is still massively consequential because the job is to assimilate the entire national intelligence gathering in one place. You're like the secretary the entire security of the nation depends on. I like and admire Tulsi, but she is probably the worst fit imaginable for this job. She is a media darling and has has great pacifist views that I agree with and a great respect for personal privacy. None of these qualities are good for DNI.

1

Justifax

3 months ago

https://ajcongress.org/jewishpoliticalguide/senators/tulsi-gabbard/

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

https://ajcongress.org/jewishpoliticalguide/senators/susan-collins/

0

Justifax

3 months ago

https://ajcongress.org/jewishpoliticalguide/senators/tulsi-gabbard/

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

Compare it to https://ajcongress.org/jewishpoliticalguide/senators/todd-young/

0

Justifax

3 months ago

https://ajcongress.org/jewishpoliticalguide/senators/tulsi-gabbard/

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

There is only so much flip flopping and shape shifting people can stomach. Anyways, doesn't she support a two state solution? What's the issue exactly?

0

Justifax

3 months ago

https://ajcongress.org/jewishpoliticalguide/senators/tulsi-gabbard/

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

https://ajcongress.org/jewishpoliticalguide/senators/tulsi-gabbard/

0

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

Maybe you're right though. Still an interesting market, no?

0

Justifax

3 months ago

https://polymarket.com/event/which-senators-will-vote-to-confirm-tulsi-gabbard?tid=1738003141397 Please go on the discord and ask for Todd Young to be added.

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

Lol, that ship has sailed dude. Look at his voting record.

1

Justifax

3 months ago

https://polymarket.com/event/which-senators-will-vote-to-confirm-tulsi-gabbard?tid=1738003141397 Please go on the discord and ask for Todd Young to be added.

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

https://polymarket.com/event/which-senators-will-vote-to-confirm-tulsi-gabbard?tid=1738003141397 Please go on the discord and ask for Todd Young to be added.

3

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

That said, I never had a problem with mask mandates. People who pushed back on that were pretty stupid, imho, and frankly hyper selfish. I mean, what's the fucking big deal. Oh noes I have to wear some cloth over my mouth.

0

Justifax

3 months ago

What I don't get is why RFK isn't higher. I mean, holy cow. The guy is super health fanatic and the whole anti-vaccine nonsense is totally false. He just wants people to stop knee jerk jumping down everyone's throats when they dare to commit the heresy of questioning the science of vaccines - a super critical step in the scientific process itself.

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

I got the vaccine and so did everyone I know beyond some distant folks on the social network. But I think forcing people to get a vaccine that even it's biggest proponent said only slightly reduced transmission was really really stupid.

1

Justifax

3 months ago

What I don't get is why RFK isn't higher. I mean, holy cow. The guy is super health fanatic and the whole anti-vaccine nonsense is totally false. He just wants people to stop knee jerk jumping down everyone's throats when they dare to commit the heresy of questioning the science of vaccines - a super critical step in the scientific process itself.

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

Yeah, I'm hoping for a 55+ vote count. :)

1

Justifax

3 months ago

What I don't get is why RFK isn't higher. I mean, holy cow. The guy is super health fanatic and the whole anti-vaccine nonsense is totally false. He just wants people to stop knee jerk jumping down everyone's throats when they dare to commit the heresy of questioning the science of vaccines - a super critical step in the scientific process itself.

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

You're literally doing what everyone does. Knee jerk thinking about vaccines. It's why I think RFK will be a game changer for the better.

1

Justifax

3 months ago

What I don't get is why RFK isn't higher. I mean, holy cow. The guy is super health fanatic and the whole anti-vaccine nonsense is totally false. He just wants people to stop knee jerk jumping down everyone's throats when they dare to commit the heresy of questioning the science of vaccines - a super critical step in the scientific process itself.

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

The covid mandate was super fucking stupid, imho. By far the worst act in the history of the democratic party. Biden did good things, that was not it.

1

Justifax

3 months ago

What I don't get is why RFK isn't higher. I mean, holy cow. The guy is super health fanatic and the whole anti-vaccine nonsense is totally false. He just wants people to stop knee jerk jumping down everyone's throats when they dare to commit the heresy of questioning the science of vaccines - a super critical step in the scientific process itself.

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

https://www.reuters.com/article/fact-check/bill-gates-did-not-say-covid-19-vaccines-are-ineffective-idUSL1N2S7292/

1

Justifax

3 months ago

What I don't get is why RFK isn't higher. I mean, holy cow. The guy is super health fanatic and the whole anti-vaccine nonsense is totally false. He just wants people to stop knee jerk jumping down everyone's throats when they dare to commit the heresy of questioning the science of vaccines - a super critical step in the scientific process itself.

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

“We didn’t have vaccines that block transmission. We got vaccines that help you with your health, but they only slightly reduce the transmission. So, we need a new way of doing the vaccines” (from timestamp, 27:25).

1

Justifax

3 months ago

What I don't get is why RFK isn't higher. I mean, holy cow. The guy is super health fanatic and the whole anti-vaccine nonsense is totally false. He just wants people to stop knee jerk jumping down everyone's throats when they dare to commit the heresy of questioning the science of vaccines - a super critical step in the scientific process itself.

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

What people don't realize is that even Bill Gates admitted that the covid vaccine didn't stop covid from spreading. In particular because vaccinated people thought they weren't going to spread it, which ofc, they did.

1

Justifax

3 months ago

What I don't get is why RFK isn't higher. I mean, holy cow. The guy is super health fanatic and the whole anti-vaccine nonsense is totally false. He just wants people to stop knee jerk jumping down everyone's throats when they dare to commit the heresy of questioning the science of vaccines - a super critical step in the scientific process itself.

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

What I don't get is why RFK isn't higher. I mean, holy cow. The guy is super health fanatic and the whole anti-vaccine nonsense is totally false. He just wants people to stop knee jerk jumping down everyone's throats when they dare to commit the heresy of questioning the science of vaccines - a super critical step in the scientific process itself.

2

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

Early on there was some initial knee jerk noise that was very in flight and volatile.

0

MrNFT

3 months ago

tulsi is cooked

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

In general, you can't read anything from the left here, because it's all biased nonsense with no signal.

0

MrNFT

3 months ago

tulsi is cooked

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

Hegseth was never cooked. You unfortunately have been reading too much libtard media.

0

MrNFT

3 months ago

tulsi is cooked

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

If you're looking for alpha you need to haunt google and twitter looking for breaking quotes from Todd Young. I will say check out his voting record and when his term expires.

1

Justifax

3 months ago

The lessons of incidents such as New Orleans and 911 is that, unfortunately, you need an aggressive DNI. Tulsi Gabbard met with the leaker of the pentagon papers and agreed that it was 'insane' for journalists to be charged for leaking intel. These are reasonable viewpoints, imho, but antithesis to the role she's being confirmed for.

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

That's the question, of course. If they don't, this market goes to less than 30%.

0

Justifax

3 months ago

The lessons of incidents such as New Orleans and 911 is that, unfortunately, you need an aggressive DNI. Tulsi Gabbard met with the leaker of the pentagon papers and agreed that it was 'insane' for journalists to be charged for leaking intel. These are reasonable viewpoints, imho, but antithesis to the role she's being confirmed for.

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

The problem is largely New Orleans. Senators voting for an anti-intel DNI risk being responsible for any lapses going forward.

0

Justifax

3 months ago

Saying that Hegeseth, a harvard and princeton educated avatar of MAGA, was the most controversial nominee is naive. Accusations of misogyny and drinking only confirmed he was an archetypical soldier. K-street lobbyists always saw him as 2nd most likely to be confirmed after RFK. Kash Patel is slightly more risky, and Tulsi Gabbard is far and away the most controversial. https://punchbowl.news/wp-content/uploads/The-Canvass-Gabbard.pdf

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

The flip side to that is rejecting Tulsi would be less controversial than rejecting Pete.

1

Justifax

3 months ago

Saying that Hegeseth, a harvard and princeton educated avatar of MAGA, was the most controversial nominee is naive. Accusations of misogyny and drinking only confirmed he was an archetypical soldier. K-street lobbyists always saw him as 2nd most likely to be confirmed after RFK. Kash Patel is slightly more risky, and Tulsi Gabbard is far and away the most controversial. https://punchbowl.news/wp-content/uploads/The-Canvass-Gabbard.pdf

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

https://punchbowl.news/wp-content/uploads/The-Canvass-Gabbard.pdf The majority of lobbyists said Pete would be confirmed. Majority say Tulsi will not. Pete is far less controversial.

0

Justifax

3 months ago

Saying that Hegeseth, a harvard and princeton educated avatar of MAGA, was the most controversial nominee is naive. Accusations of misogyny and drinking only confirmed he was an archetypical soldier. K-street lobbyists always saw him as 2nd most likely to be confirmed after RFK. Kash Patel is slightly more risky, and Tulsi Gabbard is far and away the most controversial. https://punchbowl.news/wp-content/uploads/The-Canvass-Gabbard.pdf

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

The lessons of incidents such as New Orleans and 911 is that, unfortunately, you need an aggressive DNI. Tulsi Gabbard met with the leaker of the pentagon papers and agreed that it was 'insane' for journalists to be charged for leaking intel. These are reasonable viewpoints, imho, but antithesis to the role she's being confirmed for.

0

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

Saying that Hegeseth, a harvard and princeton educated avatar of MAGA, was the most controversial nominee is naive. Accusations of misogyny and drinking only confirmed he was an archetypical soldier. K-street lobbyists always saw him as 2nd most likely to be confirmed after RFK. Kash Patel is slightly more risky, and Tulsi Gabbard is far and away the most controversial. https://punchbowl.news/wp-content/uploads/The-Canvass-Gabbard.pdf

1

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

It's peace through strength, not peace through weakness. Issues of invasion of privacy, of course, need to be managed. Just like collateral damage from military action. But that is an internal compliance effort.

0

Justifax

3 months ago

Trump would be much better suited to have someone who is loyal and believes in the tactical superiority of sophisticated intelligence gathering. The problem with Tulsi isn't her pro-russian view points, it's her excusing of edward snowden. It's like trying to hire a pacifist as head of the DoD. Makes zero sense. You want someone who prioritizes lethality.

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

Trump would be much better suited to have someone who is loyal and believes in the tactical superiority of sophisticated intelligence gathering. The problem with Tulsi isn't her pro-russian view points, it's her excusing of edward snowden. It's like trying to hire a pacifist as head of the DoD. Makes zero sense. You want someone who prioritizes lethality.

0

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

If my intention was to buy further NO, I wouldn't have posted anything.

1

Justifax

3 months ago

https://punchbowl.news/wp-content/uploads/The-Canvass-Gabbard.pdf

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

This senator is not one of the GangOfThree (GOT: Murk, Mitch, Collins) "Still, there is some unease. One Republican senator who has voted for all of Trump’s nominees so far said his colleagues will be wary of national security picks who “sound more like Tucker Carlson than a Republican,” referring to the hard-right conservative commentator who has been seen as friendly to U.S. adversaries such as Russian President Vladimir Putin. “We’ll only give so much,” said the senator, who spoke on condition of anonymity to describe the internal Senate thinking. “Because this is the future of the country. It’s not entertainment television.” https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/white-house-republicans-trump-nominees-political-consequences-rcna189288

0

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

I mean, it is what it is.

0

Justifax

3 months ago

https://punchbowl.news/wp-content/uploads/The-Canvass-Gabbard.pdf

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

Pete, at 25%, got through on a squeeker tie breaking vote.

0

Justifax

3 months ago

https://punchbowl.news/wp-content/uploads/The-Canvass-Gabbard.pdf

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

https://punchbowl.news/wp-content/uploads/The-Canvass-Gabbard.pdf

2

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

"Procedural hurdles: Republicans have a one-seat majority on the panel, meaning just a single GOP defection could prevent Cotton from being able to report Gabbard’s nomination to the floor favorably."

1

Justifax

3 months ago

punchbowl has some good analysis https://punchbowl.news/article/k-street/k-street-capitol-hill-gabbard/ https://punchbowl.news/article/senate/tulsi-gabbard-intelligence-committee-uphill-battle/

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

punchbowl has some good analysis https://punchbowl.news/article/k-street/k-street-capitol-hill-gabbard/ https://punchbowl.news/article/senate/tulsi-gabbard-intelligence-committee-uphill-battle/

1

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

Uhh, no.

0

Justifax

3 months ago

Collins is at 12% to confirm. I guess everyone here is assuming she will vote for her in committee and against her on the floor? That doesn't happen very often.

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

If she doesn't get out of committee, her odds of confirmation are pretty small.

0

Justifax

3 months ago

Collins is at 12% to confirm. I guess everyone here is assuming she will vote for her in committee and against her on the floor? That doesn't happen very often.

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

https://polymarket.com/event/which-senators-will-vote-to-confirm-tulsi-gabbard

0

Justifax

3 months ago

Collins is at 12% to confirm. I guess everyone here is assuming she will vote for her in committee and against her on the floor? That doesn't happen very often.

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

Collins is at 12% to confirm. I guess everyone here is assuming she will vote for her in committee and against her on the floor? That doesn't happen very often.

2

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

https://polymarket.com/event/which-senators-will-vote-to-confirm-tulsi-gabbard?tid=1737912417528 Collins is on the intel committee. https://www.axios.com/2025/01/23/tulsi-gabbard-edward-snowden-trump-senate "There's definitely a risk that she won't even survive the committee process," one Republican senator told Axios, speaking on the condition of anonymity."

1

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

I have it on good authority if you buy up Tulsi on PolyMarket she will be automatically confirmed. I think 90c is the magic number. Copy pasting the same thing over again won't do the trick, I'm afraid. You need to show real commitment.

0

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

"This is estimated end date. See rules below for specific resolution details."

0

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

TBH, I've actually done really poor lately and likely on tilt. Tulsi will probably be confirmed given my record last couple of weeks.

1

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

Tulsi is a brunette. How many brunettes have been nominated DNI? Makes you think.

2

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

A typical scam to getting cheap no (or cheap yes, if that's what you're buying) for your own account is to say really dumb things. People will ape in against you. For example, I think Tulsi will lose because she is from hawaii. When was the last person from hawaii named DNI?

0

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

Ideally the link is fresh and not just a dupe of something that has already been posted before.

0

Justifax

3 months ago

In general, assume every comment is a scam unless backed up by a link to a credible resource.

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

Some scams are for pump and dumps, other scams are for cheap whatever they are buying with an alt account.

0

Justifax

3 months ago

In general, assume every comment is a scam unless backed up by a link to a credible resource.

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

In general, assume every comment is a scam unless backed up by a link to a credible resource.

0

Greenland Parliamentary Election Winner

Justifax

3 months ago

now THIS is a market

3

Which Trump picks will be confirmed?

Justifax

3 months ago

Buying NO is super risky. Senate confirmation failure never happened in Trump's first term and in fact has not happened since 1988.

1

Canada election called before April?

Justifax

4 months ago

They don't really do that anymore, but maybe.

0

Seloeded

4 months ago

Prorogation until March 24th at which point they will need to vote on the Supplementary Estimates C - think of this as what funds government. Supp C is a confidence vote so they will fall on March 24th and the election will be called. Man, working in this industry has won me so much money in the last two days. 450 CAD to 3k USD in 40 hours.

Trudeau no confidence motion passes before April?

Justifax

4 months ago

Ahh, not proposable until Trudeau is no longer PM I'm afraid.

0

Libitum

4 months ago

Trudeau confirmed today he will resign. That means that this market will resolve to NO, waiting only for the formalities. There is not going to be a non confidence vote anymore. https://x.com/bennyjohnson/status/1876306722433990837

Canada election called before April?

Justifax

4 months ago

Yep, NDP could vote for supply easy. Not the sort of thing you fail.

0

Seloeded

4 months ago

Prorogation until March 24th at which point they will need to vote on the Supplementary Estimates C - think of this as what funds government. Supp C is a confidence vote so they will fall on March 24th and the election will be called. Man, working in this industry has won me so much money in the last two days. 450 CAD to 3k USD in 40 hours.

Election certified on January 6?

Justifax

4 months ago

i guess as jokes go it's only mid kinda funny. but all the scamming looked like fun so why not

1

Election certified on January 6?

Justifax

4 months ago

11:59AM maybe

1

Justifax

4 months ago

ez no, cert won't happen by PM time tomorrow. This should be like 50 50 imho

Election certified on January 6?

Justifax

4 months ago

ez no, cert won't happen by PM time tomorrow. This should be like 50 50 imho

2

Election certified on January 6?

Justifax

4 months ago

I admit gopfan selling at 90 is weirding me out.

1

Election certified on January 6?

Justifax

4 months ago

Maybe they're thinking of cucking it on the lack of end time in the rules. For real, how could they mess that up.

1

Election certified on January 6?

Justifax

4 months ago

I don't want to contribute to the delusions.

0

Justifax

4 months ago

For real, dem's are using their Big Weather Machine to create a snow storm as an excuse to delay cert. Better buy no. Marge told me all about it

Election certified on January 6?

Justifax

4 months ago

I mean, people are buying NO here, so like high chances of some delusions going on.

0

Justifax

4 months ago

For real, dem's are using their Big Weather Machine to create a snow storm as an excuse to delay cert. Better buy no. Marge told me all about it

Election certified on January 6?

Justifax

4 months ago

This is, ofc, a joke.

0

Justifax

4 months ago

For real, dem's are using their Big Weather Machine to create a snow storm as an excuse to delay cert. Better buy no. Marge told me all about it

Election certified on January 6?

Justifax

4 months ago

For real, dem's are using their Big Weather Machine to create a snow storm as an excuse to delay cert. Better buy no. Marge told me all about it

4

Yoon out as president of South Korea before April?

Justifax

4 months ago

could be BS

0

HBTOWER

4 months ago

I’m using this for the first time. I have a question. If someone’s bet turns out to be correct, will they receive the money once the bet ends, even if they don’t sell their shares? Or do they need to sell before the event ends?

Derivatives_Ape/Prometheus arrested this year?

Justifax

4 months ago

This market was the perfect test of who are scammers and who aren't.

0

Derivatives_Ape/Prometheus arrested this year?

Justifax

4 months ago

I'll tip anyone who disputes $100

2

Yoon out as president of South Korea before April?

Justifax

4 months ago

Note, you should be happy with low prices. If your goal is to pump and dump, please stop.

0

Derivatives_Ape/Prometheus arrested this year?

Justifax

4 months ago

I am stating all this because I don't want to see people screwed by purchasing NO. Unless you have serious alpha, my advice would be to stay away from this market.

1

Derivatives_Ape/Prometheus arrested this year?

Justifax

4 months ago

What do you mean lol? What I said is true.

0

Justifax

4 months ago

I sold as a number of people have agreed to advocate for YES who were previously advocating for NO. In general, I don't want to see this turn into a scam market.

Derivatives_Ape/Prometheus arrested this year?

Justifax

4 months ago

I believe a P3 resolution (50 / 50) is reasonable, but others seem to want to go for P2 (YES). I'll leave it up to them, as long as it doesn't go P1 I am satisfied.

0

Derivatives_Ape/Prometheus arrested this year?

Justifax

4 months ago

I sold as a number of people have agreed to advocate for YES who were previously advocating for NO. In general, I don't want to see this turn into a scam market.

0

Derivatives_Ape/Prometheus arrested this year?

Justifax

4 months ago

Unless he's joking, he admits directly he was in jail - https://x.com/Derivatives_Ape/status/1865051174770024808 I’ve already spent months in jail. Came back to Twitter just to get called mean words every day??

0

Derivatives_Ape/Prometheus arrested this year?

Justifax

4 months ago

I've created a discord server, https://discord.gg/XZwyNTcN, please join if you have bought at least 1000 shares of YES. We will work together to provide proof on UMA to get this to resolve as YES.

3

Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?

Justifax

4 months ago

but here's the thing, we could fix this. we could make it actually reasonable if people stopped fucking around

2

Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?

Justifax

4 months ago

and everyone is going to cry scam scam scam

2

Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?

Justifax

4 months ago

this is going to resolve yes based on some half assed reserve2

1

Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?

Justifax

4 months ago

: seriously can someone fucking like get real here

1

Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?

Justifax

4 months ago

What are we betting on? The hint of a reserve?

1

Congress pay raise removed from funding bill by Friday?

Justifax

4 months ago

ffs, I've said the same thing since day one. Resolve on headlines.

0

Justifax

4 months ago

it's obvious. just read the news. markets are resolved on news. you are not lawyers or journalists or experts. you're just degen gamblers. stop doing original research. as the articles explain, the language striking the freeze was removed in the passed bill. it's a double negative, but it's still true.

Congress pay raise removed from funding bill by Friday?

Justifax

4 months ago

it's obvious. just read the news. markets are resolved on news. you are not lawyers or journalists or experts. you're just degen gamblers. stop doing original research. as the articles explain, the language striking the freeze was removed in the passed bill. it's a double negative, but it's still true.

2

Trudeau out in 2024?

Justifax

4 months ago

Trudeau pushing out Freeland could all have been an act in order to give her a chance to run without his baggage.

1

Trudeau out in 2024?

Justifax

4 months ago

Lulz, hardly. It's barely a news cycle.

0

pumpkin227

4 months ago

I’m assuming they have other politicians in Canada? If he doesn’t get forced out then his party is a joke resigned to a decade of shadow cabinet. Even Julia Gillard resigned for Rudd lol.

Trudeau out in 2024?

Justifax

4 months ago

And fwiw, never in the history of Canada has a prime minister ever resigned on the spot. So there's that.

1

pumpkin227

4 months ago

I’m assuming they have other politicians in Canada? If he doesn’t get forced out then his party is a joke resigned to a decade of shadow cabinet. Even Julia Gillard resigned for Rudd lol.

Trudeau out in 2024?

Justifax

4 months ago

Well, there is this thing in north america called christmas. Not much gets done until the new year at this point.

1

pumpkin227

4 months ago

I’m assuming they have other politicians in Canada? If he doesn’t get forced out then his party is a joke resigned to a decade of shadow cabinet. Even Julia Gillard resigned for Rudd lol.

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

Justifax

4 months ago

Patty's quest for Kevin in Cairo - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4LRQEzVaNw8

0

Trudeau out in 2024?

Justifax

4 months ago

He could go for a walk in the snow, decide fuck it, and make the babysitter the PM.

3

Justifax

4 months ago

To be fair, Justin is an emotional guy. It's the Christmas holidays, he's separated from his wife. Who knows what could happen.

Trudeau out in 2024?

Justifax

4 months ago

To be fair, Justin is an emotional guy. It's the Christmas holidays, he's separated from his wife. Who knows what could happen.

2

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

Justifax

4 months ago

https://smalldeedsdone.com/2021/08/24/just-kick-the-football-charlie-brown/

1

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

Justifax

4 months ago

Optimism didn't work, so let's try pessimism!

1

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

Justifax

4 months ago

middleeastprinc... sold 7,400 Yes at 51.9c ($3,838)

0

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

Justifax

4 months ago

Barak not so enthused https://x.com/BarakRavid/status/1869087620682440752

0

Trudeau out in 2024?

Justifax

4 months ago

Carney though would be ideal. It'd be an interesting choice though, Carney versus Ford.

0

Justifax

4 months ago

What would be interesting if Ford entered the liberal leadership race. Than we might see some sparks fly from the north.

Trudeau out in 2024?

Justifax

4 months ago

What would be interesting if Ford entered the liberal leadership race. Than we might see some sparks fly from the north.

0

Trudeau out in 2024?

Justifax

4 months ago

Not sure what Canadians are whining about. King Trump said Freeland had to go, and Guvner Justin did as he was told. Do Canadians imagine that Poilievre is going to be any less of a toady?

0

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

Justifax

4 months ago

I wouldn't get too excited.

0

Olive98

4 months ago

https://x.com/IsraelHayomEng/status/1869005797994512477 The terror group has retreated from previous demands for a complete halt to the war and full withdrawal of Israeli forces, according to a Hamas official who spoke to The Washington Post.

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

Justifax

4 months ago

Imho, it will happen. Trump has sort of told Bibi it has to happen, and it's not like Bibi can mess around with Trump like he could with Biden. There is no re-election threat with Trump.

0

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

Justifax

4 months ago

Anyways, I am hopeful it will finally happen this time!

0

Justifax

4 months ago

Ah, Lucy: The Times of Israel Israel: Negotiators to fly out next week to finalize framework of hostage deal Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office said an Israeli delegation will attend ceasefire-for-hostage negotiations with Hamas on August 15. .Aug 9, 2024

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

Justifax

4 months ago

Ah, Lucy: The Times of Israel Israel: Negotiators to fly out next week to finalize framework of hostage deal Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office said an Israeli delegation will attend ceasefire-for-hostage negotiations with Hamas on August 15. .Aug 9, 2024

0

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

Justifax

4 months ago

Barak out of the loop? Crazy thing for him to post. Very vague, imho. https://x.com/barakravid/status/1869030336061186259?s=46&t=Colxjm4-Co9jTiM0tdXATA

0

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

Justifax

4 months ago

If he believed like 5% of what he said, he wouldn't sell. But he doesn't believe anything he says, so he just sells.

0

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

Justifax

4 months ago

"Seems to me like only a hostage deal is going to happen" Car just spams BS constantly.

0

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

Justifax

4 months ago

Yeh, but unlike you, he just spams BS whether it's true or not. Like the cease fire comment below

0

Justifax

4 months ago

Car sold 80 Yes at 71.0c ($57) Car is pumping into his sell orders.

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

Justifax

4 months ago

Car sold 80 Yes at 71.0c ($57) Car is pumping into his sell orders.

1

Trudeau out in 2024?

Justifax

4 months ago

hilarious watching car flail like the schizo scammer that he is.

4

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

Justifax

4 months ago

Honestly, I think this has like a 25% chance of happening. It's like Lucy rugging Charlie Brown, every damn time.. I just bought some out of the Christmas spirit. Will probably buy some more.

2

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

Justifax

4 months ago

lulz, you must be new here.

0

Gullible

4 months ago

once YES crosses 51% its going to run all the way..

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

Justifax

4 months ago

Sounds like BS. I think Trump is talking to Bibi as much as he is to Hamas.

1

its.just.fire

4 months ago

trump has just told qatar that if deal isnt agreed by christmas, safe passage to turkey for hamas leaders and commanders is off the table.

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

Justifax

4 months ago

lol, i call BS. Source?

0

its.just.fire

4 months ago

trump has floated behind the scene to Qatar a full on gaza siege if deal isnt approved by christmas.

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

Justifax

4 months ago

Yikes, that is grim. Where is your optimism coming from, may I ask?

0

its.just.fire

4 months ago

there is currently 2 different deals on the table, both will have to be agreed to before christmas bc of us pressure: the first deal is being called a truce for humanitarian purprose which is a full on ceasefire for a limited number of hostages during the first step.this deal has already been approved by both sides.

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

Justifax

4 months ago

source? I only see one deal

0

its.just.fire

4 months ago

there is currently 2 different deals on the table, both will have to be agreed to before christmas bc of us pressure: the first deal is being called a truce for humanitarian purprose which is a full on ceasefire for a limited number of hostages during the first step.this deal has already been approved by both sides.

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

Justifax

4 months ago

We've been here so many times, ofc, but the language around this feels a bit different.

0

Justifax

4 months ago

The biggest problem with these things is that all external media will be over promising and nobody can push back and try to be realistic .. except for us.

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

Justifax

4 months ago

My sense though is that if a ceasefire is ever going to happen, now is the time. Bibi could use a win from the trials, trump has stated he wants it done before he's sworn in, and tis the season. Let's hope it finally happens.

0

Justifax

4 months ago

The biggest problem with these things is that all external media will be over promising and nobody can push back and try to be realistic .. except for us.

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

Justifax

4 months ago

Because trying to be negative or pessimistic about a cease fire is really lame. So the media is all rose colored glasses.

0

Justifax

4 months ago

The biggest problem with these things is that all external media will be over promising and nobody can push back and try to be realistic .. except for us.

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

Justifax

4 months ago

The biggest problem with these things is that all external media will be over promising and nobody can push back and try to be realistic .. except for us.

0

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

Justifax

4 months ago

seems to me car is a fucking schizo low life. "According to estimates, the deal will include a ceasefire "

0

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

Justifax

4 months ago

Anyways, it will depend on how the it's couched by the media. If they call it a ceasefire, it's a ceasefire.

1

ghostsofbaudrillard

4 months ago

the article just published does not talk about a ceasefire but a limited hostage deal...

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

Justifax

4 months ago

24 hours per the rules is required for a ceasefire. A humanitarian pause is just to ease suffering.

0

ghostsofbaudrillard

4 months ago

the article just published does not talk about a ceasefire but a limited hostage deal...

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

Justifax

4 months ago

Hmm, well there would have to be a ceasefire in order to do the exchange.

0

ghostsofbaudrillard

4 months ago

the article just published does not talk about a ceasefire but a limited hostage deal...

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

Justifax

4 months ago

People want their family back for Christmas and Hanukah

1

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

Justifax

4 months ago

ceasefire is going to come to the ME because of poly PNL. Who knew it'd be that easy.

2

Romania Presidential Election

Justifax

4 months ago

Also, the question is whether there will be a second round or not.

0

Astera

4 months ago

This now makes 5 articles I've read over the last week and this one was published only a few hours ago stating that party presidents won't be a consideration for either a common presidential candidate or a left right dual candidates proposal. Yet people are still setting their money on fire by backing Lasconi or Ciolacu in this market. "Sources within the USR revealed to PRO TV News that a split variant is being considered regarding the common candidate. That is, the left and right will have separate candidates, and the party presidents are out of the question in this situation. At the same time, discussions on the candidate could be left for next year, precisely to advance negotiations on the Government more quickly. According to sources, the talks should be completed next week." https://stirileprotv.ro/stiri/politic/surse-rasturnare-de-situatie-in-privinta-candidatului-comun-ruptura-produsa-deja-in-noul-guvern.html

Romania Presidential Election

Justifax

4 months ago

Eg, if things get sticky with Calin and or selecting candidates, it could drag out. They're having a hard time finding a reason to ban Calin

1

Astera

4 months ago

This now makes 5 articles I've read over the last week and this one was published only a few hours ago stating that party presidents won't be a consideration for either a common presidential candidate or a left right dual candidates proposal. Yet people are still setting their money on fire by backing Lasconi or Ciolacu in this market. "Sources within the USR revealed to PRO TV News that a split variant is being considered regarding the common candidate. That is, the left and right will have separate candidates, and the party presidents are out of the question in this situation. At the same time, discussions on the candidate could be left for next year, precisely to advance negotiations on the Government more quickly. According to sources, the talks should be completed next week." https://stirileprotv.ro/stiri/politic/surse-rasturnare-de-situatie-in-privinta-candidatului-comun-ruptura-produsa-deja-in-noul-guvern.html

Romania Presidential Election

Justifax

4 months ago

I think so too, but a lot of it depends on how they deal with Calin and Trump I think.

0

Astera

4 months ago

This now makes 5 articles I've read over the last week and this one was published only a few hours ago stating that party presidents won't be a consideration for either a common presidential candidate or a left right dual candidates proposal. Yet people are still setting their money on fire by backing Lasconi or Ciolacu in this market. "Sources within the USR revealed to PRO TV News that a split variant is being considered regarding the common candidate. That is, the left and right will have separate candidates, and the party presidents are out of the question in this situation. At the same time, discussions on the candidate could be left for next year, precisely to advance negotiations on the Government more quickly. According to sources, the talks should be completed next week." https://stirileprotv.ro/stiri/politic/surse-rasturnare-de-situatie-in-privinta-candidatului-comun-ruptura-produsa-deja-in-noul-guvern.html

Romania Presidential Election

Justifax

4 months ago

Lot of great posts, Astera.

0

Astera

4 months ago

This now makes 5 articles I've read over the last week and this one was published only a few hours ago stating that party presidents won't be a consideration for either a common presidential candidate or a left right dual candidates proposal. Yet people are still setting their money on fire by backing Lasconi or Ciolacu in this market. "Sources within the USR revealed to PRO TV News that a split variant is being considered regarding the common candidate. That is, the left and right will have separate candidates, and the party presidents are out of the question in this situation. At the same time, discussions on the candidate could be left for next year, precisely to advance negotiations on the Government more quickly. According to sources, the talks should be completed next week." https://stirileprotv.ro/stiri/politic/surse-rasturnare-de-situatie-in-privinta-candidatului-comun-ruptura-produsa-deja-in-noul-guvern.html

Poland Presidential Election

Justifax

4 months ago

Which one is the nutbar not-qualified pro-russian candidate? Want to bet on him

0

Romania Presidential Election

Justifax

4 months ago

The problem with this market, is we have no idea what's going on. Is it Calin? Late election? Nicursor Dan? Bolojan?

0

Romania Presidential Election

Justifax

4 months ago

We need a will there be an election by april 30th market.

0

Romania Presidential Election

Justifax

4 months ago

Yeh, that would be the reasonable outcome.

0

shajtan

4 months ago

Is it not a big possibility after no wrongdoing have been found. That elena and georgescu follow true for a final round ? or whats up?

Romania Presidential Election

Justifax

4 months ago

Well, at least you don't have a bet in the market.

0

Justifax

4 months ago

The market adds up to less than 100% because there is deposit risk and opportunity risk. The only way to get paid on the remaining amount is to wait until market resolution, which means months of waiting for what, 5% return? If you want to fix these undervalues, go on polycord and ask them to add a feature to merge negrisk yes into 1 USDC per 1 share of yes in every bracket.

Romania Presidential Election

Justifax

4 months ago

The 'other' bracket is none of the above.

0

Justifax

4 months ago

The market adds up to less than 100% because there is deposit risk and opportunity risk. The only way to get paid on the remaining amount is to wait until market resolution, which means months of waiting for what, 5% return? If you want to fix these undervalues, go on polycord and ask them to add a feature to merge negrisk yes into 1 USDC per 1 share of yes in every bracket.

Romania Presidential Election

Justifax

4 months ago

It's always great when people expose their total ignorance, it shows how much dumb money there is on poly.

1

Justifax

4 months ago

The market adds up to less than 100% because there is deposit risk and opportunity risk. The only way to get paid on the remaining amount is to wait until market resolution, which means months of waiting for what, 5% return? If you want to fix these undervalues, go on polycord and ask them to add a feature to merge negrisk yes into 1 USDC per 1 share of yes in every bracket.

Romania Presidential Election

Justifax

4 months ago

Well, we have convert, which converts no into yes in all the other brackets. This is immediate profit if the odds sum to more than 100%. Merging yes into a 1 usdc is the opposite. Many people have proposed this, but it's not yet a priority as it doesn't happen that often where odds sum up to less than 100%, but certainly is happening here.

1

Justifax

4 months ago

The market adds up to less than 100% because there is deposit risk and opportunity risk. The only way to get paid on the remaining amount is to wait until market resolution, which means months of waiting for what, 5% return? If you want to fix these undervalues, go on polycord and ask them to add a feature to merge negrisk yes into 1 USDC per 1 share of yes in every bracket.

Romania Presidential Election

Justifax

4 months ago

The market adds up to less than 100% because there is deposit risk and opportunity risk. The only way to get paid on the remaining amount is to wait until market resolution, which means months of waiting for what, 5% return? If you want to fix these undervalues, go on polycord and ask them to add a feature to merge negrisk yes into 1 USDC per 1 share of yes in every bracket.

1

Romania Presidential Election

Justifax

5 months ago

Wait, no, I get it, they annulled the election because Romanians can not be trusted to think for themselves.

1

Romania Presidential Election

Justifax

5 months ago

Pretty wild annulling an election because of tik tok vids.

5

Romania Presidential Election

Justifax

5 months ago

Deposit risk is why market is under 100%. You can go on poly and ask them to add a feature where we can merge yes in all the brackets to 1 usdc though. That would be cool and would immediately get rid of the underpricing.

0

Romania Presidential Election

Justifax

5 months ago

Simon has to dance around declaring, as he wants to inherit CG's voters but can't if he starts eating off his plate.

2

Romania Presidential Election

Justifax

5 months ago

converted no to yes in other brackets

0

amused85

5 months ago

Can please somebody explain how for ciuca for example Yes top holders hold hundreds of thousangs of shares, while No top holders - just hundreds? Shoudn't the amounts be on the same order?

Fact Check: Luigi Mangione motivated by denied claims?

Justifax

5 months ago

I don't, he's just trying to get my attention because I have him blocked on discord.

0

Pidor🐓

5 months ago

it's crazy how unlimitedmarketAbuse/gizmo/justifax spends all day scamming on several different names and is only up $18k in 10 months. really stupid fucker

Fact Check: Luigi Mangione motivated by denied claims?

Justifax

5 months ago

I think the real reason he did it was because of AI. Lot of young people are feeling existential angst over AI. This dude is keenly aware of the downsides given his education background. His positive reviews of Kaczynski shows that he's very sympathetic to the anti-tech point of view. He probably thought this was his best chance of making a historical impact on society as his comp sci degree isn't of much value at this point.

0

Fact Check: Luigi Mangione motivated by denied claims?

Justifax

5 months ago

Tbf to cg, poly might agree with him and clarify this as true. He is pretty unpopular though, and no doubt that is a factor.

0

Fact Check: Luigi Mangione motivated by denied claims?

Justifax

5 months ago

Yes, it's possible Luigi has a beef with industry as a whole due to denied claims, but he killed Thompson because he's CEO of the biggest health corp. It's even possible Luigi has no knowledge or familiarity with United Health claims.

2

Fact Check: Luigi Mangione motivated by denied claims?

Justifax

5 months ago

In truth, it's a very moronic market. It's not as if Thompson was involved in his claim. The insurance industry should have been sufficient, and the claims more specific. But poly writing a moronic market is a bond itself.

0

Fact Check: Luigi Mangione motivated by denied claims?

Justifax

5 months ago

Or rather, shouldn't count. I have no idea how UMA will scam this.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Sold at a small loss. It's a fair point! Unless the UnitedHealth is involved in the claim, this market doesn't count.

Fact Check: Luigi Mangione motivated by denied claims?

Justifax

5 months ago

Sold at a small loss. It's a fair point! Unless the UnitedHealth is involved in the claim, this market doesn't count.

3

Fact Check: Luigi Mangione motivated by denied claims?

Justifax

5 months ago

As someone said, 'If there was a specific claim in the manifesto it would be in the news rn.': ........ soooo "From the dailymail below: "He has not been charged in connection to the death of Thompson, but was angry at the way the medical insurance industry treated a sick relative, police sources said."

0

Fact Check: Luigi Mangione motivated by denied claims?

Justifax

5 months ago

There's no claim specified yet, may take a while, but this market is open to march. Multiple sources now point to him stating that he's upset by how someone cared about was treated.

0

Deppockets

5 months ago

Im trying to understand what claim would this kid be worried about? I think overall hes anti capitalist and ultra liberal and is angry at US healthcare. I don't think its a specific claim hes mad about.

Fact Check: Luigi Mangione motivated by denied claims?

Justifax

5 months ago

From the dailymail below: "He has not been charged in connection to the death of Thompson, but was angry at the way the medical insurance industry treated a sick relative, police sources said."

1

Fact Check: Luigi Mangione motivated by denied claims?

Justifax

5 months ago

There's no intent to scam. Just go ahead and propose if you're so sure. I won't even bother posting in ER.

1

Fact Check: Luigi Mangione motivated by denied claims?

Justifax

5 months ago

i don't want to pull a car scam here, but one issue we may run into is that as taerv534 says "Complaining about one's health insurance signals low status". I think it would also sound kinda petty and selfish that he did this horrific act just because he was short changed. Not very heroic sounding.

1

Fact Check: Luigi Mangione motivated by denied claims?

Justifax

5 months ago

the manifesto has to be about specific claims. generic health care biz bad doesn't count.

2

Fact Check: Luigi Mangione motivated by denied claims?

Justifax

5 months ago

Sure, fine, but you made wild claims below with no links or sources. Are you car or something? One scammer is enough

0

Justifax

5 months ago

I scrolled through quite a bit of his twitter account. I see nothing complaining about health insurance, not even the industry.

Fact Check: Luigi Mangione motivated by denied claims?

Justifax

5 months ago

I scrolled through quite a bit of his twitter account. I see nothing complaining about health insurance, not even the industry.

0

Fact Check: Luigi Mangione motivated by denied claims?

Justifax

5 months ago

if you read his twitter, he mostly talks about mental health issues - https://x.com/hubermanlab/status/1628557104540962816 and drugs https://x.com/PepMangione/status/1750216347836145914

0

Fact Check: Luigi Mangione motivated by denied claims?

Justifax

5 months ago

"maybe the issue is that I just sent 84,463$ instead of 844$ to an internet stranger?" oh man i laughed

0

Fact Check: Luigi Mangione motivated by denied claims?

Justifax

5 months ago

that would have been so great

0

Fact Check: Luigi Mangione motivated by denied claims?

Justifax

5 months ago

was very sad to see that car didn't lose the money he stupidly sent

0

Fact Check: Luigi Mangione motivated by denied claims?

Justifax

5 months ago

This is some seriously surreal shit

0

Fact Check: Luigi Mangione motivated by denied claims?

Justifax

5 months ago

oh look a source - https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/12/09/nyregion/unitedhealthcare-ceo-shooting-news/46f33036-858b-5fff-bbc6-d22d23d97fe5?smid=url-share

0

Fact Check: Luigi Mangione motivated by denied claims?

Justifax

5 months ago

"Tuition at Gilman is currently $37,690 per year for high schoolers."

0

Fact Check: Luigi Mangione motivated by denied claims?

Justifax

5 months ago

You should *absolutely* propose it.

0

Pidor🐓

5 months ago

can this be proposed yet? shout out 2 amalek for keeping the price low

Romania Presidential Election

Justifax

5 months ago

No, I live in a place where they have a sense of humor.

2

MisTKy

5 months ago

Geoana will be the next president mark my words

Romania Presidential Election

Justifax

5 months ago

Personally, I'm all in on Nicolae.

0

MisTKy

5 months ago

Geoana will be the next president mark my words

Romania Presidential Election

Justifax

5 months ago

Many are saying!

0

MisTKy

5 months ago

Geoana will be the next president mark my words

Georgescu banned from Romania election?

Justifax

5 months ago

Didn't Putin endorse Kamala? They should have annulled the election.

5

Romania Presidential Election

Justifax

5 months ago

Marcel, I dunno. He has the stink of failure on him, plus lasconi and others will split his votes. Simion is interesting if CG isn't running. He's playing it well.

1

Atolotti

5 months ago

In a week georgescu out. Simion 30 cent cialocu 40-50 cent lasconi drop to 18

Romania Presidential Election

Justifax

5 months ago

It's been explained 100s of times already. Polymarket even changed the title to 'other'. How do people still not know this?

0

Romania Presidential Election

Justifax

5 months ago

Seriously, how do you bet like 1000s of dollars and not bother to read?

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Honest question, does everyone else see that big bold faced heading "Rules"? When I click on "show more" it magically says stuff - like how the other bracket resolves to everyone but the folks listed above.

Romania Presidential Election

Justifax

5 months ago

Honest question, does everyone else see that big bold faced heading "Rules"? When I click on "show more" it magically says stuff - like how the other bracket resolves to everyone but the folks listed above.

0

Romania Presidential Election

Justifax

5 months ago

How did Lasconi make it to the 2nd round? Split votes and I think to a degree she was propped up by the tiktok bots to help CG win in the end.

1

Justifax

5 months ago

Tbf to Lasconi, she is the only one on the list that has any right to be in the new 1st round. Everyone else is pretty much getting an undeserved mulligan assuming they actually run. The problem with Lasconi is she fails on heads up polling against pretty much everyone, including CG himself. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_Romanian_presidential_election

Romania Presidential Election

Justifax

5 months ago

Tbf to Lasconi, she is the only one on the list that has any right to be in the new 1st round. Everyone else is pretty much getting an undeserved mulligan assuming they actually run. The problem with Lasconi is she fails on heads up polling against pretty much everyone, including CG himself. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_Romanian_presidential_election

0

Romania Presidential Election

Justifax

5 months ago

That is meaningless. You should go on the discord before making any further bets as you are not reading the rules.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Just to be clear, the Other bracket is also Bolojan, Diana, and any new candidate for PNL PSD. Several candidates untarnished by losing in the first round are being approached.

Romania Presidential Election

Justifax

5 months ago

Yes, though I think Diana has a better chance of replacing CG as he isn't a first time loser like Simon.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

LnzTalk, no, Ciuca will never become Bolojan. I encourage you to join the Discord and discuss this with Polymarket staff. https://discord.gg/Be9sD8S3

Romania Presidential Election

Justifax

5 months ago

It is not. The rule are in the text of the market. It's why they changed it to 'Other'.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

LnzTalk, no, Ciuca will never become Bolojan. I encourage you to join the Discord and discuss this with Polymarket staff. https://discord.gg/Be9sD8S3

Romania Presidential Election

Justifax

5 months ago

This market will resolve to Yes if a candidate other than Mircea Geoana, Marcel Ciolacu, George Simion, Nicolae Ciuca, or Elena Lasconi wins this election.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

LnzTalk, no, Ciuca will never become Bolojan. I encourage you to join the Discord and discuss this with Polymarket staff. https://discord.gg/Be9sD8S3

Romania Presidential Election

Justifax

5 months ago

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by April 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to Yes.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

LnzTalk, no, Ciuca will never become Bolojan. I encourage you to join the Discord and discuss this with Polymarket staff. https://discord.gg/Be9sD8S3

Romania Presidential Election

Justifax

5 months ago

Other has two conditions:

0

Justifax

5 months ago

LnzTalk, no, Ciuca will never become Bolojan. I encourage you to join the Discord and discuss this with Polymarket staff. https://discord.gg/Be9sD8S3

Romania Presidential Election

Justifax

5 months ago

LnzTalk, no, Ciuca will never become Bolojan. I encourage you to join the Discord and discuss this with Polymarket staff. https://discord.gg/Be9sD8S3

1

Romania Presidential Election

Justifax

5 months ago

I have to admit - there is a pretty crazy Irony that the CG chads could win under Bolojan. This election is definitely one for the prediction market history books..

1

Romania Presidential Election

Justifax

5 months ago

I was replying to cristiankan. With his large NO on Other, not sure if he is aware.

0

cristiankan

5 months ago

Some people bet CG will be president, while others bet they will be in jail till the end of the year. Interesting

Romania Presidential Election

Justifax

5 months ago

I don't think people are betting CG will be president, though in theory it is possible. I've noticed you've kept up this theme in posting. Is it ignorance or are you scamming?

0

cristiankan

5 months ago

Some people bet CG will be president, while others bet they will be in jail till the end of the year. Interesting

Romania Presidential Election

Justifax

5 months ago

It is fair as the bracket was always the 'Other' bracket and the rules never changed. The title did and perhaps Poly can find a better way to manage that in the future.

1

Justifax

5 months ago

Just to be clear, the Other bracket is also Bolojan, Diana, and any new candidate for PNL PSD. Several candidates untarnished by losing in the first round are being approached.

Romania Presidential Election

Justifax

5 months ago

Just to be clear, the Other bracket is also Bolojan, Diana, and any new candidate for PNL PSD. Several candidates untarnished by losing in the first round are being approached.

1

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Hmm, wtf NYC, your 25 days is long expired.. https://casetext.com/statute/consolidated-laws-of-new-york/chapter-election/article-9-canvass-of-results/title-2-canvass-by-board-of-elections/section-9-214-transmission-of-statements-of-canvassing-boards-to-state-board-of-elections-and-secretary-of-state

1

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

The only people more annoying than those who don't provide sources are those who complain without bothering to read the posts.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

I dunno if it's just late scammers below or just grossly negligent joiners - always impossible to tell - but NY will drop DEM and drop very large. This will likely add at least 80K more to Kamala Harris versus Trump, bringing her under 1.5%. By likely, I mean 75/25 .. which is pretty darn likely. Some may argue there is EV+ at 80/20, but I dunno. For me, NY is a very volatile counting state and things can change dramatically from year to year.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Lol. I directly link to the recap pdfs several times.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

I dunno if it's just late scammers below or just grossly negligent joiners - always impossible to tell - but NY will drop DEM and drop very large. This will likely add at least 80K more to Kamala Harris versus Trump, bringing her under 1.5%. By likely, I mean 75/25 .. which is pretty darn likely. Some may argue there is EV+ at 80/20, but I dunno. For me, NY is a very volatile counting state and things can change dramatically from year to year.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

It will mostly be NYC. I've linked to it dozens of times below. Check out my posts, and wikipedia history + vote.nyc

0

Justifax

5 months ago

I dunno if it's just late scammers below or just grossly negligent joiners - always impossible to tell - but NY will drop DEM and drop very large. This will likely add at least 80K more to Kamala Harris versus Trump, bringing her under 1.5%. By likely, I mean 75/25 .. which is pretty darn likely. Some may argue there is EV+ at 80/20, but I dunno. For me, NY is a very volatile counting state and things can change dramatically from year to year.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Ofc, it could be the 80-20 folks have access to the NYC data and so it's all massive EV+. I haven't bothered trying to get it beyond calling Vincent the one time.

1

Justifax

5 months ago

I dunno if it's just late scammers below or just grossly negligent joiners - always impossible to tell - but NY will drop DEM and drop very large. This will likely add at least 80K more to Kamala Harris versus Trump, bringing her under 1.5%. By likely, I mean 75/25 .. which is pretty darn likely. Some may argue there is EV+ at 80/20, but I dunno. For me, NY is a very volatile counting state and things can change dramatically from year to year.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

I dunno if it's just late scammers below or just grossly negligent joiners - always impossible to tell - but NY will drop DEM and drop very large. This will likely add at least 80K more to Kamala Harris versus Trump, bringing her under 1.5%. By likely, I mean 75/25 .. which is pretty darn likely. Some may argue there is EV+ at 80/20, but I dunno. For me, NY is a very volatile counting state and things can change dramatically from year to year.

3

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

The vote split on the affs though is not yet clear. I think final results (absentee + affs) will be about +50 or so out of NYC, giving a net of +80K and potentially much higher out of NY.

1

Justifax

5 months ago

Imho, I think the market is a bit over priced (why I sold) but not by much. My earlier mistake was underestimating affidavits coming out of NY, however after trolling through all the archives, I see that affadavits are much higher in NY than the 1% you see across the state. 2%-3% is definitely plausible. https://vote.nyc/page/election-results-summary (scroll down)

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Imho, I think the market is a bit over priced (why I sold) but not by much. My earlier mistake was underestimating affidavits coming out of NY, however after trolling through all the archives, I see that affadavits are much higher in NY than the 1% you see across the state. 2%-3% is definitely plausible. https://vote.nyc/page/election-results-summary (scroll down)

2

Derivatives_Ape/Prometheus arrested this year?

Justifax

5 months ago

Yeh, leave it up, let me talk to some people to help take that.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

You are free to match my orders if you think this will go NO.

Derivatives_Ape/Prometheus arrested this year?

Justifax

5 months ago

You are free to match my orders if you think this will go NO.

0

Derivatives_Ape/Prometheus arrested this year?

Justifax

5 months ago

It's worth noting most sensible people have already confirmed that when this is proposed again, it will go P2 and that was beore we got confirmation on the twitter account.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Any common sense reading of this - multiple media outlets reporting his arrest, an entire community following and dealing with his arrest, and now confirmations on his twitter account. I'm just presenting the evidence that will be presented in UMA. If you disagree, you are free to share your own links as well as of course put up limit orders for NO.

Derivatives_Ape/Prometheus arrested this year?

Justifax

5 months ago

That is more confirmation. Instead of saying he was never in jail, he confirms that he was in jail. Of course, you can pretend to be stupid, but we'll see how far that gets you. Buy NO.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Any common sense reading of this - multiple media outlets reporting his arrest, an entire community following and dealing with his arrest, and now confirmations on his twitter account. I'm just presenting the evidence that will be presented in UMA. If you disagree, you are free to share your own links as well as of course put up limit orders for NO.

Derivatives_Ape/Prometheus arrested this year?

Justifax

5 months ago

Any common sense reading of this - multiple media outlets reporting his arrest, an entire community following and dealing with his arrest, and now confirmations on his twitter account. I'm just presenting the evidence that will be presented in UMA. If you disagree, you are free to share your own links as well as of course put up limit orders for NO.

0

Derivatives_Ape/Prometheus arrested this year?

Justifax

5 months ago

He confirms it again here - https://x.com/Derivatives_Ape/status/1857451303594541243

1

Derivatives_Ape/Prometheus arrested this year?

Justifax

5 months ago

Both binance, dlnews, and cointelegraph confirmed that ape was in jail. ape then confirmed on his twitter account that he was in jail. this is consensus of credible reporting.

0

Derivatives_Ape/Prometheus arrested this year?

Justifax

5 months ago

The twitter account admitted he was in jail. It doesn't get more authoritative than that.

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

True and not true. Certain types of trading, yes, others it's very easy to over analyze.

1

muxmuvl

5 months ago

Almost all states are at 99%+ there is no way this will drop below 1.5 https://apnews.com/projects/election-results-2024/?office=P

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

lol. wtf changed, for real. ny has been there for weeks now, waiting to drop. We've been talking about it for weeks.

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Well, the attacks are actually good. It's a sign we still have free speech. When everyone is agreeing, it means speech is censored. If I had to say only one thing that was the heart of prediction markets, I would say they are an act of free speech.

0

Mbrace888

5 months ago

Any time now, that 1.5 stock is going to sell like gangbusters. LMFAO. The mocking during the victory lap is probably the best part of this whole experience.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

This is why I try to share credible links in every comment. Potential alpha.

0

Mbrace888

5 months ago

Any time now, that 1.5 stock is going to sell like gangbusters. LMFAO. The mocking during the victory lap is probably the best part of this whole experience.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

At the end of the day, unless someone leaks alpha in a comment, assume it's a scam.

0

Mbrace888

5 months ago

Any time now, that 1.5 stock is going to sell like gangbusters. LMFAO. The mocking during the victory lap is probably the best part of this whole experience.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

The problem is a lot of the scammers are probably profiting off lt 1.5 just as much as you are and they were only pumping gt 1.5 for cheap prices. Some people go for the smash and grab APR, others go for the longer con pump NO and acquire cheap. Bit less insipid, but still just as scuzzy

0

Mbrace888

5 months ago

Any time now, that 1.5 stock is going to sell like gangbusters. LMFAO. The mocking during the victory lap is probably the best part of this whole experience.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Karma will come for everyone though.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Lol, heads up: "Eridpnc: I think I will try to sell low 80s actually"

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Always find this sort of thing amusing, but never surprising.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Lol, heads up: "Eridpnc: I think I will try to sell low 80s actually"

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Lol, heads up: "Eridpnc: I think I will try to sell low 80s actually"

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

just ignore him. idiot scammers are so far gone they don't even know when they're doing things illegal.

0

Mbrace888

5 months ago

This market and K8alshi shifted big at the same time. Perhaps some news about NYC?

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

I think missing the 11\26th cert date is another issue. Too many affs would do that.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

anyone want to side bet on # of affidavits out of NYC? I'm guessing 75k

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Hmmm, what are you basing this estimate on? Historically, aff % is very high in NY. Lower in midterm years (who's going to the trouble for midterms, right) and covid. I think 3% sounds right this year because of ev and mailins, but it would be historically low compared to 2016 (3.5%) and 2012 (10%).

0

Justifax

5 months ago

anyone want to side bet on # of affidavits out of NYC? I'm guessing 75k

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

anyone want to side bet on # of affidavits out of NYC? I'm guessing 75k

1

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

lulz

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Once again, I am asking you to get Poly to clarify this market. For real, I'd rather lose than win this via scamming and if I do I will donate it to the FBI investigation.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Melody, DJ, etc .. I dunno if you're wash traders or what but you've been warned like many times now. No complaining about resolution sources.

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Once again, I am asking you to get Poly to clarify this market. For real, I'd rather lose than win this via scamming and if I do I will donate it to the FBI investigation.

1

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

The funny thing is, NY could just blow this all out of the water and like what was the point of tracking anything.

2

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Not entirely sure how the k8lshi market evaluates, but if it's lt 1.495000 (which rounds to 1.49) then it's another 85K required versus the 75K for this market. Dumb way to describe the markets, imho. Much prefer these brackets, though the notation of [1.5,1.75) would have been nice..

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

https://x.com/WinWithJMC/status/1862112260950245539 I dunno what is up with this guy. I told him he was missing NY in his estimates but just keeps blithering on. "Founder, JMC Analytics & Polling Award winning pollster/4x runner-up (Innovation in Survey Research) Political strategist/Numbers guy" I mean, holy cow.

1

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

I will admit to one huge miss in all this, which was MA. They were very sneaky

0

Justifax

5 months ago

I would say the market is fairly priced and is more likely to land below 1.5 The only question is what is the ev+ Sure, some people will win, they argue they knew the answer all along, but it's just survivorship BS.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

For atlas, I just use the table view off of https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ it more or less pastes into google sheets.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

If you're tracking you want to take max(ddhq, ap, cook, atas) per state. Subtract 200K for writeins from you denominator for figuring out %s

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

If you know who I am on discord, ping me and I can send you dumps.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

If you're tracking you want to take max(ddhq, ap, cook, atas) per state. Subtract 200K for writeins from you denominator for figuring out %s

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Sure, whatever, I just don't want to be arguing about this come time market resolution.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Ignore the annoying schizos that can't do math. Get Poly to clarify final results. All too often people get scammed at the last second.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Current 154,894,287.00 77,164,514.00 74,764,140.00

0

Justifax

5 months ago

If you're tracking you want to take max(ddhq, ap, cook, atas) per state. Subtract 200K for writeins from you denominator for figuring out %s

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Using this, I have 75K left required for Kam and a 155M denominator.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

If you're tracking you want to take max(ddhq, ap, cook, atas) per state. Subtract 200K for writeins from you denominator for figuring out %s

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

If you're tracking you want to take max(ddhq, ap, cook, atas) per state. Subtract 200K for writeins from you denominator for figuring out %s

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

I would say the market is fairly priced and is more likely to land below 1.5 The only question is what is the ev+ Sure, some people will win, they argue they knew the answer all along, but it's just survivorship BS.

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

The numbers could even by lower than this, like 10K lower, if we don't make some other friendly assumptions (eg, missing returned but not yet checked for valid). I would say +45K absentee+affs is the total lower bound. +55k makes some less conservative assumptions, and maybe +65K is dem friendly. Again, this is just NYC and ignores the rest of the state.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

There definitely is a debate we're having, as can be seen below. https://vote.nyc/page/canvass-information-and-mail-ballots What is the rejection rate on Queens? Is it true that only 91% absentee ballots city wide were accepted!? https://x.com/BOENYC/status/1854593236372734276?t=dggnUkn8qmIcOUQEA9pKlQ&s=19

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

With provisionals, I estimate about a +55K net shift for kam for NYC. I am not sure what's happening in the rest of the state, though there is stuff like Suffolk and Nassau

0

Justifax

5 months ago

There definitely is a debate we're having, as can be seen below. https://vote.nyc/page/canvass-information-and-mail-ballots What is the rejection rate on Queens? Is it true that only 91% absentee ballots city wide were accepted!? https://x.com/BOENYC/status/1854593236372734276?t=dggnUkn8qmIcOUQEA9pKlQ&s=19

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

And none of this analysis is taking into account provisionals.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

There definitely is a debate we're having, as can be seen below. https://vote.nyc/page/canvass-information-and-mail-ballots What is the rejection rate on Queens? Is it true that only 91% absentee ballots city wide were accepted!? https://x.com/BOENYC/status/1854593236372734276?t=dggnUkn8qmIcOUQEA9pKlQ&s=19

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Another question is the vote split on 'blanks'. I assumed 50-50, but again, that could blue shift.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

There definitely is a debate we're having, as can be seen below. https://vote.nyc/page/canvass-information-and-mail-ballots What is the rejection rate on Queens? Is it true that only 91% absentee ballots city wide were accepted!? https://x.com/BOENYC/status/1854593236372734276?t=dggnUkn8qmIcOUQEA9pKlQ&s=19

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Lower bound though, if we use the 91% acceptance rate, than I think the +45k for kam estimate I provide is reasonable. It could certainly go higher, of course assuming more ballots are accepted.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

There definitely is a debate we're having, as can be seen below. https://vote.nyc/page/canvass-information-and-mail-ballots What is the rejection rate on Queens? Is it true that only 91% absentee ballots city wide were accepted!? https://x.com/BOENYC/status/1854593236372734276?t=dggnUkn8qmIcOUQEA9pKlQ&s=19

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

I did a bunch of research on this, but honestly, from election to election this number dramatically changes. Laws are constantly being written and rewritten in NY. It's anybody's guess.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

There definitely is a debate we're having, as can be seen below. https://vote.nyc/page/canvass-information-and-mail-ballots What is the rejection rate on Queens? Is it true that only 91% absentee ballots city wide were accepted!? https://x.com/BOENYC/status/1854593236372734276?t=dggnUkn8qmIcOUQEA9pKlQ&s=19

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Looking through various links, it's clear NY has a very volatile absentee rejection issue. It's truly all over the map. This rejection rate is an X factor, imho. Because in the recap, valid is not yet being reported.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

There definitely is a debate we're having, as can be seen below. https://vote.nyc/page/canvass-information-and-mail-ballots What is the rejection rate on Queens? Is it true that only 91% absentee ballots city wide were accepted!? https://x.com/BOENYC/status/1854593236372734276?t=dggnUkn8qmIcOUQEA9pKlQ&s=19

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

There definitely is a debate we're having, as can be seen below. https://vote.nyc/page/canvass-information-and-mail-ballots What is the rejection rate on Queens? Is it true that only 91% absentee ballots city wide were accepted!? https://x.com/BOENYC/status/1854593236372734276?t=dggnUkn8qmIcOUQEA9pKlQ&s=19

0

Google forced to sell Chrome?

Justifax

5 months ago

Good long term investment, imho. Google definitely should not be in the browser biz.

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Was a bit surprised to see CA tapped out like that. Quite the red shift at the last there.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

For NYC, thanks KingKash for bringing attention to https://vote.nyc/page/canvass-information-and-mail-ballots However, my results are net 45k for Kam. Provisionals will be 1%, or around 25K more ballots. This will add another 10k? For kam. Not sure what the rest of NY will do.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

For NYC, thanks KingKash for bringing attention to https://vote.nyc/page/canvass-information-and-mail-ballots However, my results are net 45k for Kam. Provisionals will be 1%, or around 25K more ballots. This will add another 10k? For kam. Not sure what the rest of NY will do.

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

I have 70, but it depends where the denominator ends up.

0

Joe44

5 months ago

How mcuh does 1.5 need? 60k?

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Ignore the annoying schizos that can't do math. Get Poly to clarify final results. All too often people get scammed at the last second.

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Not just undervotes, but invalid writeins, etc.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

For those who missed it, UFL includes total ballots in their estimates, eg: undervotes. Which is a fair amount.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

So it turns out Atlas SW versus Atlas basic makes a huge difference. Please ask Polymarket to clarify this or some folks could get heavily scammed here at the last second.

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

For those who missed it, UFL includes total ballots in their estimates, eg: undervotes. Which is a fair amount.

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Anyways, it's not for Dave to decide what is a vote and what isn't. We have a system of laws that decide and then certify it.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

As it "Doesn’t matter either way" let's use Atlas SW as the resolution source or the FEC. This seems reasonable as the base Atlas stuff has 'county augmented' data in it which do not appear in nationally certified numbers. Some of the numbers are total bullshit, really. For example, Dave includes 'invalid write-ins' as votes! Which is obviously absurd.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Undervotes do not count by any stretch. An invalid write in is basically an undervote. It's the same as leaving it blank.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

As it "Doesn’t matter either way" let's use Atlas SW as the resolution source or the FEC. This seems reasonable as the base Atlas stuff has 'county augmented' data in it which do not appear in nationally certified numbers. Some of the numbers are total bullshit, really. For example, Dave includes 'invalid write-ins' as votes! Which is obviously absurd.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

The worst part was the 20K 'invalid writeins' he added from Utah, which is a total joke.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

As it "Doesn’t matter either way" let's use Atlas SW as the resolution source or the FEC. This seems reasonable as the base Atlas stuff has 'county augmented' data in it which do not appear in nationally certified numbers. Some of the numbers are total bullshit, really. For example, Dave includes 'invalid write-ins' as votes! Which is obviously absurd.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

The problem isn't writeins, the problem is the bullshit data that Dave uses. FEC includes writeins, just not 'invalid writeins', which is a joke.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

As it "Doesn’t matter either way" let's use Atlas SW as the resolution source or the FEC. This seems reasonable as the base Atlas stuff has 'county augmented' data in it which do not appear in nationally certified numbers. Some of the numbers are total bullshit, really. For example, Dave includes 'invalid write-ins' as votes! Which is obviously absurd.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

sure, whatever. it will be the exact same

0

Justifax

5 months ago

As it "Doesn’t matter either way" let's use Atlas SW as the resolution source or the FEC. This seems reasonable as the base Atlas stuff has 'county augmented' data in it which do not appear in nationally certified numbers. Some of the numbers are total bullshit, really. For example, Dave includes 'invalid write-ins' as votes! Which is obviously absurd.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

As it "Doesn’t matter either way" let's use Atlas SW as the resolution source or the FEC. This seems reasonable as the base Atlas stuff has 'county augmented' data in it which do not appear in nationally certified numbers. Some of the numbers are total bullshit, really. For example, Dave includes 'invalid write-ins' as votes! Which is obviously absurd.

4

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

So everyone needs to get polymarket to clarify the resolution source for this market. If we're not using 'county augmented' writeins (ie, atlas), then it changes things by a few thousand required kam. Please go on the discord and tell polymarket to clarify.

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Anyways kk, love to chat with on discord.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

kk has some good analysis here https://k8lshi.com/ideas/posts/8d25d5d6-6395-4ebf-81ea-e55ab6936226 but it is missing affadavits, which was about 1% in 2022 and in 2020 and should be about 80K for all of NY.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

This was about 170K ballots and turnout is significantly up from that.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

kk has some good analysis here https://k8lshi.com/ideas/posts/8d25d5d6-6395-4ebf-81ea-e55ab6936226 but it is missing affadavits, which was about 1% in 2022 and in 2020 and should be about 80K for all of NY.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Another analysis you can do is look at late dump in 2022, https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2022_United_States_Senate_election_in_New_York&oldid=1123798271 and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_election_in_New_York

0

Justifax

5 months ago

kk has some good analysis here https://k8lshi.com/ideas/posts/8d25d5d6-6395-4ebf-81ea-e55ab6936226 but it is missing affadavits, which was about 1% in 2022 and in 2020 and should be about 80K for all of NY.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

KK's analysis is just NYC, which is half the population of New York

0

Justifax

5 months ago

kk has some good analysis here https://k8lshi.com/ideas/posts/8d25d5d6-6395-4ebf-81ea-e55ab6936226 but it is missing affadavits, which was about 1% in 2022 and in 2020 and should be about 80K for all of NY.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

https://www.vote.nyc/sites/default/files/pdf/election_results/2022/20221108General%20Election/00402000031Queens%20Member%20of%20the%20Assembly%2031st%20Assembly%20District%20Recap.pdf This is just one discrict and had 1.3% affadavits, but average is 1% for NY

0

Justifax

5 months ago

kk has some good analysis here https://k8lshi.com/ideas/posts/8d25d5d6-6395-4ebf-81ea-e55ab6936226 but it is missing affadavits, which was about 1% in 2022 and in 2020 and should be about 80K for all of NY.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

2020, there was about D+64 for all this late stuff. I doubt we'll see that, but D+40 would do the trick.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

kk has some good analysis here https://k8lshi.com/ideas/posts/8d25d5d6-6395-4ebf-81ea-e55ab6936226 but it is missing affadavits, which was about 1% in 2022 and in 2020 and should be about 80K for all of NY.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

kk has some good analysis here https://k8lshi.com/ideas/posts/8d25d5d6-6395-4ebf-81ea-e55ab6936226 but it is missing affadavits, which was about 1% in 2022 and in 2020 and should be about 80K for all of NY.

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Don't think of it as just a way to win $$$ but think of it as doing your civic duty to improve transparency around this very important democratic process.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Once again, I'd like to point out that one call to Vincent M. Ignizio at NYC at 1-212-487-5400 and you can bond this market. NYC is all that matters now. Ask for an update on the ballot count. Tell him every other state provides an ongoing estimate of where they are at in the process of counting. He's the deputy exec - https://vote.nyc/page/commissioners-management

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Once again, I'd like to point out that one call to Vincent M. Ignizio at NYC at 1-212-487-5400 and you can bond this market. NYC is all that matters now. Ask for an update on the ballot count. Tell him every other state provides an ongoing estimate of where they are at in the process of counting. He's the deputy exec - https://vote.nyc/page/commissioners-management

1

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Meh, insipid.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

I'd like to call out "KingKash" on k8lshi. Dude, you have presented some really great alpha in your posts. Enjoyed pretty much everyone. Why is it though you have been so incredibly wrong in these markets? Was it all an elaborate ploy to get cheaper prices for the lower brackets? If so, the subtlety of your manipulation was very next level, using deeply researched accurate data like that. I am in awe.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

I will say though that the nuance of your research likely just informed people rather than manipulated them. To be able to appreciate your data would be to be able to withstand the scams. So, I dunno. If it was manipulation, pretty silly.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

I'd like to call out "KingKash" on k8lshi. Dude, you have presented some really great alpha in your posts. Enjoyed pretty much everyone. Why is it though you have been so incredibly wrong in these markets? Was it all an elaborate ploy to get cheaper prices for the lower brackets? If so, the subtlety of your manipulation was very next level, using deeply researched accurate data like that. I am in awe.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

I'd like to call out "KingKash" on k8lshi. Dude, you have presented some really great alpha in your posts. Enjoyed pretty much everyone. Why is it though you have been so incredibly wrong in these markets? Was it all an elaborate ploy to get cheaper prices for the lower brackets? If so, the subtlety of your manipulation was very next level, using deeply researched accurate data like that. I am in awe.

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

https://electionstats.state.ma.us/elections/view/165300 without the filter

0

Justifax

5 months ago

It's been widely reported at this point https://electionstats.state.ma.us/elections/view/165300/filter_by_county:Essex

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

It's been widely reported at this point https://electionstats.state.ma.us/elections/view/165300/filter_by_county:Essex

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Oh the holders checkbox, gotta love it.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

It's pretty funny at this point, the market pretty much hinges 100% now on the nyc vote. All someone has to do is get viggy to cough up the numbers and they could bond this

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

It's interesting to see the price move up for 1.5 given what happened today. But I suppose the MA numbers are encouraging.

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

lol wish I could block you here like I can on discord

0

Justifax

5 months ago

It's pretty funny at this point, the market pretty much hinges 100% now on the nyc vote. All someone has to do is get viggy to cough up the numbers and they could bond this

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

It's pretty funny at this point, the market pretty much hinges 100% now on the nyc vote. All someone has to do is get viggy to cough up the numbers and they could bond this

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

I mean, rather than hassling bibii, why not just call?

0

Justifax

5 months ago

My one minor concern and why I'm leaning no - the sec state in MA is trying to put boston BOE into receivership. If they got great turnout, I don't know why he's so upset.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Amazing info if we can get a name. Very great. Otherwise could be total BS.

1

Justifax

5 months ago

My one minor concern and why I'm leaning no - the sec state in MA is trying to put boston BOE into receivership. If they got great turnout, I don't know why he's so upset.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Who did you speak to so I can confirm this?

0

Justifax

5 months ago

My one minor concern and why I'm leaning no - the sec state in MA is trying to put boston BOE into receivership. If they got great turnout, I don't know why he's so upset.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

https://www.boston.com/news/local-news/2024/11/21/city-councilstate-takeover-of-boston-election-department/ lots more like this

0

Justifax

5 months ago

My one minor concern and why I'm leaning no - the sec state in MA is trying to put boston BOE into receivership. If they got great turnout, I don't know why he's so upset.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

My one minor concern and why I'm leaning no - the sec state in MA is trying to put boston BOE into receivership. If they got great turnout, I don't know why he's so upset.

1

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

They are largely made up and guesstimates, but I believe this is the premise for lt 1.5.

1

Justifax

5 months ago

The expectation right now is that NY will come in with 210K more ballots. MA will come in with about 80K more, cali will come in with net change of 20, and the rest will be made up by others. It sounds feasible, though a lot does have to go right.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

The expectation right now is that NY will come in with 210K more ballots. MA will come in with about 80K more, cali will come in with net change of 20, and the rest will be made up by others. It sounds feasible, though a lot does have to go right.

1

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Someone want to double check this, take the max(ap,ddhq,atlas) for each state. Atlas provides a table view. Tell me what you see

1

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Yeah, 210K+ in NY with at +30 or bigger margin for 65K+ votes

0

Justifax

5 months ago

So we've all put a lot of work into this. I think we should use some of that insight to enact change in the process. Everyone should call Vincent. Who knows you might get the number! Could be worth 100s of thousands of dollars.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

That's a great angle for real. I think there is a law you can quote as well, one sec.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

So we've all put a lot of work into this. I think we should use some of that insight to enact change in the process. Everyone should call Vincent. Who knows you might get the number! Could be worth 100s of thousands of dollars.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Yeah, for real. If you get the number you could make serious bank. Worth a try!

0

Justifax

5 months ago

So we've all put a lot of work into this. I think we should use some of that insight to enact change in the process. Everyone should call Vincent. Who knows you might get the number! Could be worth 100s of thousands of dollars.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

It's one of those things I think they don't bother because nobody seems to care. But people do care, but not enough to call. I think transparency around this would be a big plus for democracy.

2

Justifax

5 months ago

So we've all put a lot of work into this. I think we should use some of that insight to enact change in the process. Everyone should call Vincent. Who knows you might get the number! Could be worth 100s of thousands of dollars.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Ahh, the assistant told me to send an email. I did, but no answer. I think more people have to call and put pressure on them.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

So we've all put a lot of work into this. I think we should use some of that insight to enact change in the process. Everyone should call Vincent. Who knows you might get the number! Could be worth 100s of thousands of dollars.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

I called a bunch of people. They all said Vincent is the dude to answer these questions.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

So we've all put a lot of work into this. I think we should use some of that insight to enact change in the process. Everyone should call Vincent. Who knows you might get the number! Could be worth 100s of thousands of dollars.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

I've already tried. I think more people have to call.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

So we've all put a lot of work into this. I think we should use some of that insight to enact change in the process. Everyone should call Vincent. Who knows you might get the number! Could be worth 100s of thousands of dollars.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

I didn't let that stop me. heh.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

So we've all put a lot of work into this. I think we should use some of that insight to enact change in the process. Everyone should call Vincent. Who knows you might get the number! Could be worth 100s of thousands of dollars.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Such estimates would also provide a great deal of sunlight and help reduce any potential shenanigans.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

So we've all put a lot of work into this. I think we should use some of that insight to enact change in the process. Everyone should call Vincent. Who knows you might get the number! Could be worth 100s of thousands of dollars.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Vincent M. Ignizio at NYC at 1-212-487-5400 and ask for an update on the ballot count. Tell him every other state provides an ongoing estimate of where they are at in the process of counting. He's the deputy exec - https://vote.nyc/page/commissioners-management What NY and one other state does is a travesty and transparency on this important fundamental demoratic process of vote counting must be improved. If we had proper estimates each day from all counties, we could predict eventual pop vote almost immediately.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

So we've all put a lot of work into this. I think we should use some of that insight to enact change in the process. Everyone should call Vincent. Who knows you might get the number! Could be worth 100s of thousands of dollars.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

So we've all put a lot of work into this. I think we should use some of that insight to enact change in the process. Everyone should call Vincent. Who knows you might get the number! Could be worth 100s of thousands of dollars.

1

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

The weather markets are very technical.

0

Flaner

5 months ago

This has to be the most difficult, technical market in this site

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Where do you see washington or oregon sos reporting no more votes? Link?

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Note that revisions to data could go either way. They could go for Kam or against Kam. For example, DDHQ is over estimating Kam while AP is under estimating her (mostly VA).

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Yeah, use the sos numbers. They're very accurate and break it down as well.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Note that revisions to data could go either way. They could go for Kam or against Kam. For example, DDHQ is over estimating Kam while AP is under estimating her (mostly VA).

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Yeh, the devil is in the details at this point I think.

1

BGeD

5 months ago

Grok AI showed that tweets in late November in 2020, 2016 and 2012 reported about 1M less votes than the final counts. If the trend stands this year then all these reporting agencies are off per usual by a few hundred thousands. It’s a gamble at this point so good luck gambling, my money is on high 1.3s, but not here.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Oh you mean california. DDHQ, Atlas and AP report the same thing. For what's left, consult the sos report https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/unprocessed-ballots-status

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Note that revisions to data could go either way. They could go for Kam or against Kam. For example, DDHQ is over estimating Kam while AP is under estimating her (mostly VA).

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

It's possible for sure, but I dunno about relying on Grok AI for something like this.

1

BGeD

5 months ago

Grok AI showed that tweets in late November in 2020, 2016 and 2012 reported about 1M less votes than the final counts. If the trend stands this year then all these reporting agencies are off per usual by a few hundred thousands. It’s a gamble at this point so good luck gambling, my money is on high 1.3s, but not here.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

https://discord.gg/N6kxPA9F

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Fwiw, I run a discord for tracking scams on prediction markets. There are many, but the most prolific scam is the pump and dump APR scam. People will buy low, and then post as much vague bullshit as possible to get the price up to hit their limit sell orders as fast as possible. They then move on.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

So this is vague and non specific. Post data and links

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Note that revisions to data could go either way. They could go for Kam or against Kam. For example, DDHQ is over estimating Kam while AP is under estimating her (mostly VA).

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Likely he's just pumping dumping bullshit looking for the APR

0

Justifax

5 months ago

To all the k8lshi people, 'august' is a total scammer. His spreadsheet is utter bullshit and he has admitted to blatlantly lying to manipulate to people into lower prices. He is more than not likely right about his bracket, but not for the reasons he has given. Do not trust him and I wish k8lshi would perma ban him from the comments.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

In general though, directionally the spreadsheet is mostly correct, though these revisions could fuck with us. So as bullshit goes its relatively harmless as long as you don't take the details too seriously.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

To all the k8lshi people, 'august' is a total scammer. His spreadsheet is utter bullshit and he has admitted to blatlantly lying to manipulate to people into lower prices. He is more than not likely right about his bracket, but not for the reasons he has given. Do not trust him and I wish k8lshi would perma ban him from the comments.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

I can't say as its not my alpha to give away, but he admitted to blatantly lying to manipulate prices. You can ask him about it if you have access.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

To all the k8lshi people, 'august' is a total scammer. His spreadsheet is utter bullshit and he has admitted to blatlantly lying to manipulate to people into lower prices. He is more than not likely right about his bracket, but not for the reasons he has given. Do not trust him and I wish k8lshi would perma ban him from the comments.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

DDHQ could be correct on the over estimation, but I have a suspicion that it is not.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Note that revisions to data could go either way. They could go for Kam or against Kam. For example, DDHQ is over estimating Kam while AP is under estimating her (mostly VA).

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

It's largely a problem of the sources just having errors. Nobody really cares about this as much as we do, so nobody is being as careful as us.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Note that revisions to data could go either way. They could go for Kam or against Kam. For example, DDHQ is over estimating Kam while AP is under estimating her (mostly VA).

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Note that revisions to data could go either way. They could go for Kam or against Kam. For example, DDHQ is over estimating Kam while AP is under estimating her (mostly VA).

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

The way to tell someone isn't a scammer, is they post links and real data, because scammers fear leaking alpha.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Fwiw, I run a discord for tracking scams on prediction markets. There are many, but the most prolific scam is the pump and dump APR scam. People will buy low, and then post as much vague bullshit as possible to get the price up to hit their limit sell orders as fast as possible. They then move on.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Fwiw, I run a discord for tracking scams on prediction markets. There are many, but the most prolific scam is the pump and dump APR scam. People will buy low, and then post as much vague bullshit as possible to get the price up to hit their limit sell orders as fast as possible. They then move on.

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

In 2020 we saw some pretty hefty revisions to the data as trackers caught up with certified data and realize they were far off. I'm guessing we will see the same here for sure. We don't yet know what the resolution source for this market will be. Will it be county augmented or the sw state certified data? Unlike the turnout and 3rd party markets, they never clarified here.

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

PSA: As we're getting down to the wire here and it looks like every vote might count, be careful about trusting the vote tracker for real data if it's using DDHQ. Even AP or Atlas might have wrong results.

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

It's ironic, but K8lshi is way more of a scammer haven than poly is because of the lack of transparency on trading.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

To all the k8lshi people, 'august' is a total scammer. His spreadsheet is utter bullshit and he has admitted to blatlantly lying to manipulate to people into lower prices. He is more than not likely right about his bracket, but not for the reasons he has given. Do not trust him and I wish k8lshi would perma ban him from the comments.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

To all the k8lshi people, 'august' is a total scammer. His spreadsheet is utter bullshit and he has admitted to blatlantly lying to manipulate to people into lower prices. He is more than not likely right about his bracket, but not for the reasons he has given. Do not trust him and I wish k8lshi would perma ban him from the comments.

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

These PMs provide focus on key issues. Ideally we could help improve transparency rather than just serve as degen gambling.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Everyone should call Vincent M. Ignizio at NYC at 1-212-487-5400 and ask for an update on the ballot count. Tell him every other state provides an ongoing estimate of where they are at in the process of counting.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Instead, the country has to wait for all the votes to be tabulated and a lot of disinfo gets posted in the meanwhile.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Everyone should call Vincent M. Ignizio at NYC at 1-212-487-5400 and ask for an update on the ballot count. Tell him every other state provides an ongoing estimate of where they are at in the process of counting.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

He's the deputy exec - https://vote.nyc/page/commissioners-management What NY and one other state does is a travesty and transparency on this important fundamental demoratic process of vote counting must be improved. If we had proper estimates each day from all counties, we could predict eventual pop vote almost immediately.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Everyone should call Vincent M. Ignizio at NYC at 1-212-487-5400 and ask for an update on the ballot count. Tell him every other state provides an ongoing estimate of where they are at in the process of counting.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Everyone should call Vincent M. Ignizio at NYC at 1-212-487-5400 and ask for an update on the ballot count. Tell him every other state provides an ongoing estimate of where they are at in the process of counting.

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Just to be clear, this was satire. But once every 500 times something very bizarre will happen so the insurance is cheap, imho.

0

Babybee

5 months ago

There are still 900k left everyone... don't give up on a slim but rewarding chance of 1.75%

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

OK you've convinced me.

0

Babybee

5 months ago

There are still 900k left everyone... don't give up on a slim but rewarding chance of 1.75%

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

A great test for scammers, say some bullshit that favors their bags and if they don't correct you, you know they are stupid or intellectually dishonest.

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

And therefore lost! (minus mm rewards)

1

Crims

5 months ago

Some nice money to be made

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Keep the faith, brother. Keep the faith.

0

Andy0091

5 months ago

We only need about .05 movement to put as back closer to 1.75, the discrepencies in all the reporting right now is them trying to cheat some Dems into the congressional seats. They need to inflate Dems numbers to get recounts, also

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Chat would probably give a credibility score to the link as well.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Instead of comments, people should just post a link + an explanation of what and when the big shift in news in the link occurred which alters the prices. ChatGPT would be responsible for looking at the link and measuring a) how accurate the statement and b) how much novel technique the statement adds to the ongoing discussion. The score would be presented next to the comment and people could verify it for themselves or ignore it. And of course, a block feature needs to be added for people who try to game / abuse the system.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

A discord invite link could be added to each market for people who just want to socialize.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Instead of comments, people should just post a link + an explanation of what and when the big shift in news in the link occurred which alters the prices. ChatGPT would be responsible for looking at the link and measuring a) how accurate the statement and b) how much novel technique the statement adds to the ongoing discussion. The score would be presented next to the comment and people could verify it for themselves or ignore it. And of course, a block feature needs to be added for people who try to game / abuse the system.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Instead of comments, people should just post a link + an explanation of what and when the big shift in news in the link occurred which alters the prices. ChatGPT would be responsible for looking at the link and measuring a) how accurate the statement and b) how much novel technique the statement adds to the ongoing discussion. The score would be presented next to the comment and people could verify it for themselves or ignore it. And of course, a block feature needs to be added for people who try to game / abuse the system.

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Did you calculate on a per county basis? I can hit this vis wayback if not and verify that about the cVR. Very very curious if there is a shift in cvr ballots.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Mega is one of the worst pumper/dumpers on poly. He will spam bullshit just like Malik with zero proof. Blue shift in Cali means there are probably another 60k net change for Kam. Anyways, what matters is NY and IL at this point.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Yeah, he probably IS right. But it pisses me off he can't just say what you said.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Mega is one of the worst pumper/dumpers on poly. He will spam bullshit just like Malik with zero proof. Blue shift in Cali means there are probably another 60k net change for Kam. Anyways, what matters is NY and IL at this point.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/unprocessed-ballots-status ballots to count + 80% times uncured and apply a per county vote split based on current values plust some blue shit. Done.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Mega is one of the worst pumper/dumpers on poly. He will spam bullshit just like Malik with zero proof. Blue shift in Cali means there are probably another 60k net change for Kam. Anyways, what matters is NY and IL at this point.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Everyone could easily just copy/paste the sos page and apply some estimate blue shift like on the third day. It was done forever ago.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Mega is one of the worst pumper/dumpers on poly. He will spam bullshit just like Malik with zero proof. Blue shift in Cali means there are probably another 60k net change for Kam. Anyways, what matters is NY and IL at this point.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Also, I don't know if you're stupid or just scamming, but CA was in the tanks like a month ago. What matters are the unknowns, like IL and NY

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Mega is one of the worst pumper/dumpers on poly. He will spam bullshit just like Malik with zero proof. Blue shift in Cali means there are probably another 60k net change for Kam. Anyways, what matters is NY and IL at this point.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

The biggest difference is that what everyone claims and there is no way to say they are lying. If you share your sources and techniques though, we know you're not just a piece of shit scammer looking for a quick APR hit.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Mega is one of the worst pumper/dumpers on poly. He will spam bullshit just like Malik with zero proof. Blue shift in Cali means there are probably another 60k net change for Kam. Anyways, what matters is NY and IL at this point.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

No, I was just happy poking you because you're a scammer that can't stop yapping and spamming the comments while providing zero links and real alpha. This is the hallmark of pumper dumpers who just want to buy low and post bullshit to get a quick high APR. It is literally the biggest scam on poly and prediction markets and this sewage is horrific.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Mega is one of the worst pumper/dumpers on poly. He will spam bullshit just like Malik with zero proof. Blue shift in Cali means there are probably another 60k net change for Kam. Anyways, what matters is NY and IL at this point.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

That wasn't fucking alpha. It was just the sos page you idiot. NY and IL are what matters. How many ballots are left there? Unless you know, you know nothing.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Mega is one of the worst pumper/dumpers on poly. He will spam bullshit just like Malik with zero proof. Blue shift in Cali means there are probably another 60k net change for Kam. Anyways, what matters is NY and IL at this point.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

If you aren't a fucking scammer, how about sharing something actually useful. Where are you getting your data from? How are you estimating it? Prove you're not just a pumper dumper.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Mega is one of the worst pumper/dumpers on poly. He will spam bullshit just like Malik with zero proof. Blue shift in Cali means there are probably another 60k net change for Kam. Anyways, what matters is NY and IL at this point.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

You are literally a piece of shit pumper dumper. You admitted you're just trying to move the market to a price where you can dump. You post nothing but unverified and not relevant gossip. You are plainly admitted to the number one fucking scam on poly. You are such an incredible piece of shit, and you seem proud of it.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Mega is one of the worst pumper/dumpers on poly. He will spam bullshit just like Malik with zero proof. Blue shift in Cali means there are probably another 60k net change for Kam. Anyways, what matters is NY and IL at this point.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Post some links to back up youru data and then maybe you're not a scammer. Until then, stfu.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Mega is one of the worst pumper/dumpers on poly. He will spam bullshit just like Malik with zero proof. Blue shift in Cali means there are probably another 60k net change for Kam. Anyways, what matters is NY and IL at this point.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Worst, he's spamming bullshit in order to hit is sell orders. This is by far the most piece of shit scamming on poly there is.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Mega is one of the worst pumper/dumpers on poly. He will spam bullshit just like Malik with zero proof. Blue shift in Cali means there are probably another 60k net change for Kam. Anyways, what matters is NY and IL at this point.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Mega is one of the worst pumper/dumpers on poly. He will spam bullshit just like Malik with zero proof. Blue shift in Cali means there are probably another 60k net change for Kam. Anyways, what matters is NY and IL at this point.

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Lulz no.

0

Mega

5 months ago

Existing margins in CA counties, weighted by remaining vote left to report: 10.1% Dem

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Part of the problem was that trump has add 15K net change or so in the last day. The trend is going the wrong way. The other problem is AP is reporting MD as tapped out. A third problem is no news is bad news as it might mean states have nothing left to report.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Somon, I will tell you why people sell, but first you need to post some novel, informative links about these markets nobody else has.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

I dunno if you're scamming or just don't know. Your graphs are cute but misleading. If you think there are 'many ballots left', great, tell us where they are.

0

LolInvest

5 months ago

Very simple to know who will probably win here: compare number of votes using ratios between 2024 and 2020 or 2016 by state

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

"The trend is still very much in our favor. Only we need +160k net" Lol, you don't even see it, do you.

1

SOMON

5 months ago

Do you know why people sell? The trend is still very much in our favor. Only we need +160k net votes for Harris.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Somon, I will tell you why people sell, but first you need to post some novel, informative links about these markets nobody else has.

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

The AP having all 100% eevp is curious though.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

I suppose one thing to keep in mind is that nobody cares about PV at this point. So ap and nep can't be bothered updating MD as it's all settled, small and not super relevant - except for PV.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

I suppose one thing to keep in mind is that nobody cares about PV at this point. So ap and nep can't be bothered updating MD as it's all settled, small and not super relevant - except for PV.

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/maryland-president-results also seems out of date. odd

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Interesting that AP api is reporting MD as tapped out. SoS page still saying partial reporting. https://elections.maryland.gov/elections/2024/general_Results/county_status_page_root.html Web page seems very out of date https://apnews.com/projects/election-results-2024/maryland/?r=0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Interesting that AP api is reporting MD as tapped out. SoS page still saying partial reporting. https://elections.maryland.gov/elections/2024/general_Results/county_status_page_root.html Web page seems very out of date https://apnews.com/projects/election-results-2024/maryland/?r=0

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

If you don't want to scam and you don't want to leak alpha - just STFU. It's that simple.

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Unless someone is providing new links to hard data, it's very likely they are grifting. Piece of shit scammers fear leaking any potential alpha.

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

I don't argue that dumping was wrong. It was the incessant scammy pumping that made him such a piece of shit.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

lulz. The level of scuzzy scammers on poly never ceases: MalikNabers sold 29,385 Yes for GOP at 51.9

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

lulz. The level of scuzzy scammers on poly never ceases: MalikNabers sold 29,385 Yes for GOP at 51.9

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

With a PV system, you'd end up with the parties ignoring any centrist type community because their net change to the PV would be near zero. Rabid base communities that are cultish blue or red would be the ones in charge. Polarization of the electorate would accelerate.

1

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Basically, unless go very deep for one side or the other, your vote won't be much use.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

One thing I've realized via this exercise is how dumb PV is. All it takes is some cultish population that is like +80 or something to overpower the vote of say another population that is 20x in size but only +4

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

One thing I've realized via this exercise is how dumb PV is. All it takes is some cultish population that is like +80 or something to overpower the vote of say another population that is 20x in size but only +4

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

LOL .. I discount this market because of the Moronic Malik factor.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Bmore county is done with provisionals, I believe. Give totals in the city, I think it will be close behind. Same for Montgomery and PG. Might be some MIB2 left though, but not much. I'd say another 40K total in MD? Maybe 20K more for Kam netchange. MD is striking blue. https://elections.maryland.gov/elections/2024/general_Results/county_status_page_root.html

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Add another 75 or so out of CA. NY and IL could easily cover the remainder as long as there are no surprises.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Bmore county is done with provisionals, I believe. Give totals in the city, I think it will be close behind. Same for Montgomery and PG. Might be some MIB2 left though, but not much. I'd say another 40K total in MD? Maybe 20K more for Kam netchange. MD is striking blue. https://elections.maryland.gov/elections/2024/general_Results/county_status_page_root.html

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Bmore county is done with provisionals, I believe. Give totals in the city, I think it will be close behind. Same for Montgomery and PG. Might be some MIB2 left though, but not much. I'd say another 40K total in MD? Maybe 20K more for Kam netchange. MD is striking blue. https://elections.maryland.gov/elections/2024/general_Results/county_status_page_root.html

1

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Not really, but I admire the faith.

1

HjotolfFansen

5 months ago

Currently:

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Come on Utah! Show us your MAGA

0

HjotolfFansen

5 months ago

Currently:

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Stay strong brother. I'm hoping for a comeback too!

0

HjotolfFansen

5 months ago

Currently:

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Well, no news is bad news for lt 1.5 as it means states might be out of votes to count.

0

Mbrace888

5 months ago

The other app market is out of control. Positions down to 60/40 for no good reason.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Ammoral, Moronic Malik. Your reaction is not a surprise.

0

LolInvest

5 months ago

Strong trend keeps going (5 sources with or without write-ins) : https://i.postimg.cc/ChJPFTcC/gap-over-time10.png

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Don't worry guys, it's just a rules cuck. Oh, you have 1.2M at stake? yeh, I'm moron malik and I say it's ok. Chill.

0

LolInvest

5 months ago

Strong trend keeps going (5 sources with or without write-ins) : https://i.postimg.cc/ChJPFTcC/gap-over-time10.png

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Hey Moron Malik, how about you go tell the 3rd party that it is OK to use the SW count

0

LolInvest

5 months ago

Strong trend keeps going (5 sources with or without write-ins) : https://i.postimg.cc/ChJPFTcC/gap-over-time10.png

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Yeh, the FBI is raiding the CEO of poly because of rule cucks. Gotcha.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

I flip a coin and call it heads. It's heads. Wow, I'm like genius.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

I am literally praying they scam your ass in the turnout market. Oh the karma

0

Justifax

5 months ago

So, yeah, everything is fine. No scams here. Just ignore the FBI doing a 6am raid on the CEO of poly.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

There are so many issues, and no, it's not just 'kyc'.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

So, yeah, everything is fine. No scams here. Just ignore the FBI doing a 6am raid on the CEO of poly.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

So, yeah, everything is fine. No scams here. Just ignore the FBI doing a 6am raid on the CEO of poly.

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

https://polymarket.com/event/will-2-of-votes-go-to-3rd-party-candidates-in-us-election?tid=1732199499313

0

Justifax

5 months ago

I flip a coin and call it heads. It's heads. Wow, I'm like genius.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Whatever man. I sure hope they scam you on the turnout market like they're all trying to do right now in the 3rd party market. Clearly it's the only way you're going to learn.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

I flip a coin and call it heads. It's heads. Wow, I'm like genius.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Ok you are beyond hope.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

I flip a coin and call it heads. It's heads. Wow, I'm like genius.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

BAHAHAH

0

Justifax

5 months ago

I flip a coin and call it heads. It's heads. Wow, I'm like genius.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Oh FFS, you are so incredibly ignorant. You think this is just about the scamming pumper dumpers and the wash traders? you have no fucking clue

0

Justifax

5 months ago

I flip a coin and call it heads. It's heads. Wow, I'm like genius.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

PredictIt is not a scam site. They are decent people who do a decent job. Poly crypto no kyc however is like 25% pure scam.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

I flip a coin and call it heads. It's heads. Wow, I'm like genius.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

I mean the whole attempted rug pull happening in turnout is totally insane.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

I flip a coin and call it heads. It's heads. Wow, I'm like genius.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

I'm saying you need to STFU and get the lay of the land before saying shit. I've been here for a year and have been 100s of markets and have seen scam shit you can't even begin to imagine.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

I flip a coin and call it heads. It's heads. Wow, I'm like genius.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

I flip a coin and call it heads. It's heads. Wow, I'm like genius.

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

I run a discord for all the scams that happen on polymarket. They are legion.

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Lulz you are dumbest fuck imaginable. You have no clue

0

Justifax

5 months ago

One reason I dislike holding to the end is the amount of scamming that goes on. The atlas dude created a new SW result set: https://polymarket.com/event/will-2-of-votes-go-to-3rd-party-candidates-in-us-election?tid=1732199499313 People are actually trying to argue that this should be used instead of the current data that has been around forever

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

This will just be writeins, though not super obvious to me how it will impact this market. Likely marginally, but even 1 bps could make or break things.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

One reason I dislike holding to the end is the amount of scamming that goes on. The atlas dude created a new SW result set: https://polymarket.com/event/will-2-of-votes-go-to-3rd-party-candidates-in-us-election?tid=1732199499313 People are actually trying to argue that this should be used instead of the current data that has been around forever

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

This will of course impact turnout, by who knows how much. Maybe 150K, maybe a lot more, depending.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

One reason I dislike holding to the end is the amount of scamming that goes on. The atlas dude created a new SW result set: https://polymarket.com/event/will-2-of-votes-go-to-3rd-party-candidates-in-us-election?tid=1732199499313 People are actually trying to argue that this should be used instead of the current data that has been around forever

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

One reason I dislike holding to the end is the amount of scamming that goes on. The atlas dude created a new SW result set: https://polymarket.com/event/will-2-of-votes-go-to-3rd-party-candidates-in-us-election?tid=1732199499313 People are actually trying to argue that this should be used instead of the current data that has been around forever

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

The way you can tell who is grifting and who isn't is grifters won't post any links in fear of leaking alpha

0

Flaner

5 months ago

Nice alt @gebran you guys are playing true schizo psyop games

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Ok 3.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

https://elections.maryland.gov/elections/2024/general_Results/county_status_page_root.html Only two counties are left to report provisionals in MD.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

https://elections.maryland.gov/elections/2024/general_Results/county_status_page_root.html Only two counties are left to report provisionals in MD.

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Seriously, wtf knows how many ballots are left in MD? In WA? In NJ? For real..

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Lol ffs How do you know how many ballots are in those states? "It came to me in a dream!"

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Maybe I'll call NYC today and ask them how many ballots they have left.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

So much fun reading:: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=274974.0

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Maybe I'll call NYC today and ask them how many ballots they have left.

1

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

I'd guess AP is correct. I have no way of knowing however.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

147,663.00 to go. +20 day for kam yesterday, assuming IN revision was wrong. Conservative state level model still at 1.51 though. County level models are much lower than 1.5, not even worth bothering stating them they are so low. These are assuming NEP or AP know what they're talking about.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

147,663.00 to go. +20 day for kam yesterday, assuming IN revision was wrong. Conservative state level model still at 1.51 though. County level models are much lower than 1.5, not even worth bothering stating them they are so low. These are assuming NEP or AP know what they're talking about.

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

You can tell who the grifters and scammers are by who shares knowledge. Grifters don't. You sound like a scammer tho.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

True story, Mega who is betting in the 3rd party market, said NY is the next biggest state for votes. NY, among the lowest 'other' votes in the nation because of writein candidate laws.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

I'm not the one down like 30% in the 3rd party market! Lol. If instead of just focusing on making up shit you focused on evidence you'd be in a much better place.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

True story, Mega who is betting in the 3rd party market, said NY is the next biggest state for votes. NY, among the lowest 'other' votes in the nation because of writein candidate laws.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Having a turnout model is absolutely required for these markets.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

True story, Mega who is betting in the 3rd party market, said NY is the next biggest state for votes. NY, among the lowest 'other' votes in the nation because of writein candidate laws.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

True story, Mega who is betting in the 3rd party market, said NY is the next biggest state for votes. NY, among the lowest 'other' votes in the nation because of writein candidate laws.

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Now, sure, you don't have to share your stuff. But if you're going to pump bullshit than I get to call you on your bullshit.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Developing a skill where you can sense the stupidity of others, selling to the greater fool, might be profitable but it is soul sucking and only makes it so your only ability is to imagine the stupidity of those greater fools.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

And not once could you even explain how you came to your turnout model. It all just came to you in a dream.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Developing a skill where you can sense the stupidity of others, selling to the greater fool, might be profitable but it is soul sucking and only makes it so your only ability is to imagine the stupidity of those greater fools.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

You never had a turnout model. I asked like 5 times. Finally you bleated out a bunch of places that would guarantee 1.5

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Developing a skill where you can sense the stupidity of others, selling to the greater fool, might be profitable but it is soul sucking and only makes it so your only ability is to imagine the stupidity of those greater fools.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Except you are not, which is why both of your positions in this market and the 3rd party market are underwater and bullshit.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Developing a skill where you can sense the stupidity of others, selling to the greater fool, might be profitable but it is soul sucking and only makes it so your only ability is to imagine the stupidity of those greater fools.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

You also end up commenting like a grifter, because it just fuels the greater fools. You become a slave to the greater fools. What a sad and tortured life.

1

Justifax

5 months ago

Developing a skill where you can sense the stupidity of others, selling to the greater fool, might be profitable but it is soul sucking and only makes it so your only ability is to imagine the stupidity of those greater fools.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Developing a skill where you can sense the stupidity of others, selling to the greater fool, might be profitable but it is soul sucking and only makes it so your only ability is to imagine the stupidity of those greater fools.

1

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

This is just meme coin idiocy. You have zero predictive ability.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Mega: Will gte 2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates? Yes 13,815 shares 53c 45c $6,265.11 -$1,059.13 (-14.46%) Dude, maybe try working from evidence rather than imagination.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Sure but then you kept on digging yourself into a hole. You are going to lose 3/4ths of your pnl if don't sell or trade your way out of this hole.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Mega: Will gte 2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates? Yes 13,815 shares 53c 45c $6,265.11 -$1,059.13 (-14.46%) Dude, maybe try working from evidence rather than imagination.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

You're losing in this market, and you're losing in the 3rd party market.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Mega: Will gte 2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates? Yes 13,815 shares 53c 45c $6,265.11 -$1,059.13 (-14.46%) Dude, maybe try working from evidence rather than imagination.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

TBH, I don't have a clue either, which is why I bailed. But at least I know what I don't know rather than just relying on figments of my imagination.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Mega: Will gte 2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates? Yes 13,815 shares 53c 45c $6,265.11 -$1,059.13 (-14.46%) Dude, maybe try working from evidence rather than imagination.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Where do you expect turnout to be? This was your mistake in this market and in that market. You don't have a clue.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Mega: Will gte 2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates? Yes 13,815 shares 53c 45c $6,265.11 -$1,059.13 (-14.46%) Dude, maybe try working from evidence rather than imagination.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Mega: Will gte 2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates? Yes 13,815 shares 53c 45c $6,265.11 -$1,059.13 (-14.46%) Dude, maybe try working from evidence rather than imagination.

1

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Please, tell me more about why only California red counties matter in this market. I'm listening.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Mega, just checking in. Got any more vague, meaningless, unsourced pumps for us tonight?

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Mega, just checking in. Got any more vague, meaningless, unsourced pumps for us tonight?

2

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Hey Donor, how's it going buddy.

1

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

epic: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=416179.0

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Are you kidding? It's a LOCK. Free Money.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

So much vague pumping bullshit with zero facts, zero links. Wish I could block you all.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

So much vague pumping bullshit with zero facts, zero links. Wish I could block you all.

3

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

I never speculated as to why, just that it happened and shared proof. Instead of just shilling you're bags, share some facts.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

I'll be honest though, the one fear I have and have had all along which has made me nervous, are downward revisions. We saw some massive ones in 2020., like 150K for Kam and 40K for Trump. But Trump was scrambling hard to prove voter fraud in 2020, and maybe he doesn't care this year.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Could be. But was it an error before or an error after?

0

Justifax

5 months ago

For example, we just saw -10K in Indiana for Kam. Ouch.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

If you have some facts, share them, otherwise

0

Justifax

5 months ago

I'll be honest though, the one fear I have and have had all along which has made me nervous, are downward revisions. We saw some massive ones in 2020., like 150K for Kam and 40K for Trump. But Trump was scrambling hard to prove voter fraud in 2020, and maybe he doesn't care this year.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

You're just making up bullshit.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

I'll be honest though, the one fear I have and have had all along which has made me nervous, are downward revisions. We saw some massive ones in 2020., like 150K for Kam and 40K for Trump. But Trump was scrambling hard to prove voter fraud in 2020, and maybe he doesn't care this year.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Maybe it will get added back in, I dunno. I worry about how the ddhq numbers are ahead of atlas though.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

For example, we just saw -10K in Indiana for Kam. Ouch.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

For example, we just saw -10K in Indiana for Kam. Ouch.

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2020_United_States_presidential_election&oldid=990838788

0

Justifax

5 months ago

I'll be honest though, the one fear I have and have had all along which has made me nervous, are downward revisions. We saw some massive ones in 2020., like 150K for Kam and 40K for Trump. But Trump was scrambling hard to prove voter fraud in 2020, and maybe he doesn't care this year.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

80,197,717 73,934,131 few days later 80,043,941 73,898,023

0

Justifax

5 months ago

I'll be honest though, the one fear I have and have had all along which has made me nervous, are downward revisions. We saw some massive ones in 2020., like 150K for Kam and 40K for Trump. But Trump was scrambling hard to prove voter fraud in 2020, and maybe he doesn't care this year.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2020_United_States_presidential_election&oldid=990692251

0

Justifax

5 months ago

I'll be honest though, the one fear I have and have had all along which has made me nervous, are downward revisions. We saw some massive ones in 2020., like 150K for Kam and 40K for Trump. But Trump was scrambling hard to prove voter fraud in 2020, and maybe he doesn't care this year.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

I'll be honest though, the one fear I have and have had all along which has made me nervous, are downward revisions. We saw some massive ones in 2020., like 150K for Kam and 40K for Trump. But Trump was scrambling hard to prove voter fraud in 2020, and maybe he doesn't care this year.

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Admittedly, the rest of the drops might not be so blue.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

NBC is estimating 230,000, if we continue to see illinois drops like we have, I mean, IL and CA alone could practically take it across the finish line itself.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/illinois-president-results

0

Justifax

5 months ago

NBC is estimating 230,000, if we continue to see illinois drops like we have, I mean, IL and CA alone could practically take it across the finish line itself.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

NBC is estimating 230,000, if we continue to see illinois drops like we have, I mean, IL and CA alone could practically take it across the finish line itself.

2

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Yeh, get around there as well.

0

Captain37

5 months ago

181,000 votes in favor of Harris over Trump puts this below 1.5%

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

It was funny maybe the first time, but not like the 10th time.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

So I think cali will drop it another 85K. That means we have about 92K net change from other states

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

You're just noise and have no clue what you're talking about. When you 400x your account come back and we'll talk.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

So I think cali will drop it another 85K. That means we have about 92K net change from other states

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/unprocessed-ballots-status check this out. Lots left in alameda, la, etc

0

Justifax

5 months ago

So I think cali will drop it another 85K. That means we have about 92K net change from other states

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

yeah goingn to add you to my block list pretty soon i think

0

Justifax

5 months ago

So I think cali will drop it another 85K. That means we have about 92K net change from other states

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

I originally thought it was 144K, so I bought a bunch, but then realized I screwed up, so I sold. Lol

0

Justifax

5 months ago

So I think cali will drop it another 85K. That means we have about 92K net change from other states

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

So I think cali will drop it another 85K. That means we have about 92K net change from other states

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Ohio is in a strange world of provisionals caused by large voter purges and stringent id laws. It is one of the largest source of late provisional votes in the country, next to NY. This drop was expected, it was expected to be worse than 50 - 50 because Trump did better than 2020. But it wasn't.

1

Joe44

5 months ago

Less than 200K left to make up for. Things are starting to look good.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

I hate to say this, but you don't understand Ohio and it's unique situation with late votes. There are no comparables.

0

Joe44

5 months ago

Less than 200K left to make up for. Things are starting to look good.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

50-50 is not 'solid red'. We seem to be miscommunicating.

0

Joe44

5 months ago

Less than 200K left to make up for. Things are starting to look good.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Check out the numbers via wikipedia history. Ohio had no impact on margin shift. Given the +12 versus +8, I expected worse.

1

Joe44

5 months ago

Less than 200K left to make up for. Things are starting to look good.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

No, this is very typical for Ohio. Same thing we saw in 2020

0

Joe44

5 months ago

Less than 200K left to make up for. Things are starting to look good.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

How is 50-50 'alabama red'?

0

Joe44

5 months ago

Less than 200K left to make up for. Things are starting to look good.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

How big was your drop that you saw today?

0

Joe44

5 months ago

Less than 200K left to make up for. Things are starting to look good.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Ahh, how big was your drop?

0

Joe44

5 months ago

Less than 200K left to make up for. Things are starting to look good.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Yep, sounds right. I have 189k, but using ddhq numbers. Ohio drop was more blue than I expected.

0

Joe44

5 months ago

Less than 200K left to make up for. Things are starting to look good.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Well, it's tricky. Provisional, UOCAVA shift blue, but also there are a young black men shifting to trump. My model just ignores late blue shift and uses % since eday. Again, I'm less concerned about absolutely numbers and more direction at this point. Is it getting better or worse? How many votes are left?

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Ok, I'm out of this market. The prices are getting too sharp and not much EV+ fat left. I'll try to publish a couple of times a day my model numbers though. Kam had a bad day yesterday, just +12 from what I can see. Of my models, I have several, but two main ones. My conservative state level one is 1.51, and my NEP county level model is 1.45. That said, take these with a grain of salt, what's more interesting is the shift over time I think.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

If I use all states for the NEP model, the net change is 363k, versus 288k for just subset of states.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Ok, I'm out of this market. The prices are getting too sharp and not much EV+ fat left. I'll try to publish a couple of times a day my model numbers though. Kam had a bad day yesterday, just +12 from what I can see. Of my models, I have several, but two main ones. My conservative state level one is 1.51, and my NEP county level model is 1.45. That said, take these with a grain of salt, what's more interesting is the shift over time I think.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Check your notifications.

1

PolyPredictor

5 months ago

Anyone know where Cook Political is getting their Ohio numbers from? They are like 25k ahead of everywhere else and numbers are pretty strong towards Trump (17k towards Trump and 8k towards Kamala)

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

I have the answer, but you'll have to join the discord to get it. heh.

1

PolyPredictor

5 months ago

Anyone know where Cook Political is getting their Ohio numbers from? They are like 25k ahead of everywhere else and numbers are pretty strong towards Trump (17k towards Trump and 8k towards Kamala)

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

I ignore anything 95 or above. I think it balances out and again, I track shift with it more than absolute values.

1

Justifax

5 months ago

Ok, I'm out of this market. The prices are getting too sharp and not much EV+ fat left. I'll try to publish a couple of times a day my model numbers though. Kam had a bad day yesterday, just +12 from what I can see. Of my models, I have several, but two main ones. My conservative state level one is 1.51, and my NEP county level model is 1.45. That said, take these with a grain of salt, what's more interesting is the shift over time I think.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Yep, my NEP county level model didn't seem concerned.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Ok, I'm out of this market. The prices are getting too sharp and not much EV+ fat left. I'll try to publish a couple of times a day my model numbers though. Kam had a bad day yesterday, just +12 from what I can see. Of my models, I have several, but two main ones. My conservative state level one is 1.51, and my NEP county level model is 1.45. That said, take these with a grain of salt, what's more interesting is the shift over time I think.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

She needs about a 200K net change, but this is using DDHQ numbers. Not sure where Atlas is at, so I prefer not to use that.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Ok, I'm out of this market. The prices are getting too sharp and not much EV+ fat left. I'll try to publish a couple of times a day my model numbers though. Kam had a bad day yesterday, just +12 from what I can see. Of my models, I have several, but two main ones. My conservative state level one is 1.51, and my NEP county level model is 1.45. That said, take these with a grain of salt, what's more interesting is the shift over time I think.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Ok, I'm out of this market. The prices are getting too sharp and not much EV+ fat left. I'll try to publish a couple of times a day my model numbers though. Kam had a bad day yesterday, just +12 from what I can see. Of my models, I have several, but two main ones. My conservative state level one is 1.51, and my NEP county level model is 1.45. That said, take these with a grain of salt, what's more interesting is the shift over time I think.

3

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Sorry, has 400K other votes more than the vote trackers.

2

Joe44

5 months ago

If the trend continues we'll crack 1.5%

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Are those atlas numbers? You have to specify because Atlas is 400K ahead of the vote trackers

2

Joe44

5 months ago

If the trend continues we'll crack 1.5%

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Wait, so we're supposed to predict stuff??

1

Mbrace888

5 months ago

Maliknabers, I’m guessing that you failed to see the convergence coming again. 70/30 to 60/40 has to hurt a bit.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Hmm, wasn't there a 4,800 drop just now +52 for Harris from IL? Just asking.

2

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Yeh, I think the Atlas numbers are more likely to be bigger than 155.2 rather than less.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Broken record, but I think it's all about turnout. If we get the 155.5M, I think 1.5 is like 85 or so. If It's 155.2, than 66/36. If 155, than 50/50

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Ie, take current vote totals and add 300K. So 155 would mean there is only 1.35 to 1.4M left

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Broken record, but I think it's all about turnout. If we get the 155.5M, I think 1.5 is like 85 or so. If It's 155.2, than 66/36. If 155, than 50/50

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

I'm going by the atlas numbers here btw, so you have to add like 300K writeins or so.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Broken record, but I think it's all about turnout. If we get the 155.5M, I think 1.5 is like 85 or so. If It's 155.2, than 66/36. If 155, than 50/50

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Broken record, but I think it's all about turnout. If we get the 155.5M, I think 1.5 is like 85 or so. If It's 155.2, than 66/36. If 155, than 50/50

2

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Or maybe tomorrow, I dunno.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

I for real thought he'd amp up his estimates, rather than reduce them. Today will be a big day!

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

I for real thought he'd amp up his estimates, rather than reduce them. Today will be a big day!

1

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

I think this is going to miss the NY dump. But even with that, max out to 1M

0

Justifax

5 months ago

https://x.com/WinWithJMC/status/1858877935156895857 He actually reduced his estimates to 731K remaining. Did not see that coming.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

https://x.com/WinWithJMC/status/1858877935156895857 He actually reduced his estimates to 731K remaining. Did not see that coming.

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

The invite is open to everyone. We can debate turnout numbers for various counties.

1

Justifax

5 months ago

Hey Flaner, maybe we should continue this conversation on discord. I posted some code but looks like pastebin deleted it. Maybe they did the same with yours? Not sure. Anyways, I agree, you should account for blue shift and not just use numbers since eday. Also, in terms of estimates, that is a tricky one. AP seems pretty bad this season. NEP seems better but you have to be mindful about how you use their data. I think NBC website data is best, but you can't scrape it easily.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Hey Flaner, maybe we should continue this conversation on discord. I posted some code but looks like pastebin deleted it. Maybe they did the same with yours? Not sure. Anyways, I agree, you should account for blue shift and not just use numbers since eday. Also, in terms of estimates, that is a tricky one. AP seems pretty bad this season. NEP seems better but you have to be mindful about how you use their data. I think NBC website data is best, but you can't scrape it easily.

2

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

What am I cherrypicking? I am mostly hoping we don't reach 155m turnout and that JMC is right about pacing as a signal. I have a feeling he's going to amp up his predition this morning though https://x.com/WinWithJMC/status/1858495430008377426

1

Justifax

5 months ago

More BS posts with no links or evidence of claims. Pure pump and dump grifting. You can tell they are grifters, because grifters hate sharing knowledge.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

It's vague, meaningless, bullshit pumping. It's just grifting.

1

Justifax

5 months ago

So the DOJ is currently looking to shut poly down. CFTC's #1 complaint is the incentive for disinfo that prediction markets generate, and their #1 reason to ban prediction markets. The grifters and scammers below are providing all the evidence they need to shut this shit down.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

yeh, cross fingers. Poly does a lot of things though that doesn't help.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

So the DOJ is currently looking to shut poly down. CFTC's #1 complaint is the incentive for disinfo that prediction markets generate, and their #1 reason to ban prediction markets. The grifters and scammers below are providing all the evidence they need to shut this shit down.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

So the DOJ is currently looking to shut poly down. CFTC's #1 complaint is the incentive for disinfo that prediction markets generate, and their #1 reason to ban prediction markets. The grifters and scammers below are providing all the evidence they need to shut this shit down.

1

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Shilling is grifting and scamming. Sharing knowledge is not. What you are doing is shilling, grifting, and scamming.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

More BS posts with no links or evidence of claims. Pure pump and dump grifting. You can tell they are grifters, because grifters hate sharing knowledge.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

This is just a bullshit claim. Which point do you think is inaccurate? Be specific in your reasoning and provide some evidence.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

More BS posts with no links or evidence of claims. Pure pump and dump grifting. You can tell they are grifters, because grifters hate sharing knowledge.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

More BS posts with no links or evidence of claims. Pure pump and dump grifting. You can tell they are grifters, because grifters hate sharing knowledge.

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Well, the price is unlikely to get lower and if your turnout model makes sense, then it's all going to dry up.

0

gekko888

5 months ago

My model suggest 1.62M more votes for a total of 155.06M - Very Close and Popular Vote Margin currently at 1.71 reducing to 1.51 once all the votes are in. Again super close. I see this market before it gets wider getting closer to 50/50 but who knows....

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

So why aren't you betting huge in the turnout market?

0

gekko888

5 months ago

My model suggest 1.62M more votes for a total of 155.06M - Very Close and Popular Vote Margin currently at 1.71 reducing to 1.51 once all the votes are in. Again super close. I see this market before it gets wider getting closer to 50/50 but who knows....

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

I think the current prices 66/33 are fair. If it goes higher, I'll probably sell.

1

Flaner

5 months ago

I'm pretty sure what's going on here. You guys are hyping up your position to liquidate on others, right? You don't actually have that much confidence, you're bluffing. I'm holding back most information and despite the current pnl and some panic I'm calmer now.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

tbf to Mega, I'm jealous of him buying so much at 23c. I told myself I should have sold more. But I think he's lowballing the odds here because he's trying to pump and dump. He's also not providing any sources or evidence for his claims.

1

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Who cares about CA. If NY and IL are your biggest sources of vote, this market should be at 99c for lt 1.5

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Mega thinks the most votes are going to come out of NY, which has the a +21 split since the 9th, and in 2020 shifted the margin to biden by 40! basis points on dec 1st. They also did a massive blue shift in 2022 for the dem governor. I've posted wikipedia links below.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

OK, then wtf are you talking about. On the last 190K votes, IL has blue shifted like insane amounts.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Mega thinks the most votes are going to come out of NY, which has the a +21 split since the 9th, and in 2020 shifted the margin to biden by 40! basis points on dec 1st. They also did a massive blue shift in 2022 for the dem governor. I've posted wikipedia links below.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

NY is running +21 since the 9th, and LMAO, do you have any fucking clue what IL has been running?

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Mega thinks the most votes are going to come out of NY, which has the a +21 split since the 9th, and in 2020 shifted the margin to biden by 40! basis points on dec 1st. They also did a massive blue shift in 2022 for the dem governor. I've posted wikipedia links below.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

The vote count change happened on Dec 1st, around cert. Look it up.

1

Justifax

5 months ago

Mega thinks the most votes are going to come out of NY, which has the a +21 split since the 9th, and in 2020 shifted the margin to biden by 40! basis points on dec 1st. They also did a massive blue shift in 2022 for the dem governor. I've posted wikipedia links below.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Lol, you're going by AP which has like 155.7 estimate. Nice try though.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Mega thinks the most votes are going to come out of NY, which has the a +21 split since the 9th, and in 2020 shifted the margin to biden by 40! basis points on dec 1st. They also did a massive blue shift in 2022 for the dem governor. I've posted wikipedia links below.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

OBviously you have no clue. It was 900K. And they did something similar in 2022, though not to the same scale. Nice try though.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Mega thinks the most votes are going to come out of NY, which has the a +21 split since the 9th, and in 2020 shifted the margin to biden by 40! basis points on dec 1st. They also did a massive blue shift in 2022 for the dem governor. I've posted wikipedia links below.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

I don't think that will happen, but if NY truly is the biggest source of votes, than a shift of 10 bps by NY alone is not out of the question.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Mega thinks the most votes are going to come out of NY, which has the a +21 split since the 9th, and in 2020 shifted the margin to biden by 40! basis points on dec 1st. They also did a massive blue shift in 2022 for the dem governor. I've posted wikipedia links below.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

40 basis points, as in the current 1.68 would become 1.28 margin. All on Dec 1st.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Mega thinks the most votes are going to come out of NY, which has the a +21 split since the 9th, and in 2020 shifted the margin to biden by 40! basis points on dec 1st. They also did a massive blue shift in 2022 for the dem governor. I've posted wikipedia links below.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Mega thinks the most votes are going to come out of NY, which has the a +21 split since the 9th, and in 2020 shifted the margin to biden by 40! basis points on dec 1st. They also did a massive blue shift in 2022 for the dem governor. I've posted wikipedia links below.

1

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Based on what? NEP says NY only has 79K left. Source: It came to me in a dream

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Mega: " I'm saying we will finish at 155.2m" That's 1M votes outside of California. Where are these votes going to come from?

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Unless you know where the votes are coming from, you have no clue as to the vote split.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Mega: " I'm saying we will finish at 155.2m" That's 1M votes outside of California. Where are these votes going to come from?

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Mega: " I'm saying we will finish at 155.2m" That's 1M votes outside of California. Where are these votes going to come from?

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

That's like 1M votes! Where are they??

0

Justifax

5 months ago

This market is becoming sanely priced. Maybe lt 1.50 should be up a few more, as NY can dump hard, but don't go crazy. Imho though, the turnout market is wildly underpriced if you think gt 1.50 has a good chance. If you do a county by county analysis and ignore all counties that are 95% counted, we get well under 1.5 using 1.5M votes. And this assumes no blue shift since eday. https://polymarket.com/event/turnout-in-2024-presidential-election

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Today she had a +20 vote split. Yesterday it was +23

1

Justifax

5 months ago

Currently, Kam needs 242K to get to 1.5. A +17 vote split on 1.5M votes will get her there. Do the math. Since the 9th, she's been running a +21 vote split.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Currently, Kam needs 242K to get to 1.5. A +17 vote split on 1.5M votes will get her there. Do the math. Since the 9th, she's been running a +21 vote split.

2

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Mega is a classic pumper dumper. He buys, spouts a lot of vague meaningless bullshit without any links or hard data to back it up, and then dumps.

2

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Mega, keeps talking about another 1.5M to 2M votes. But there is only 680K left in California. He won't say where the other 800K to 1300K are going to come from.

2

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

There is only 678K votes in Cali. Where are these votes you talk about?

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Mega: "1.5 only starts having a chance above 155.5m votes..." your math is surreal. Where are these 2 million votes coming from? There is only 680K left in California.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Where are these votes?

1

Justifax

5 months ago

This market is becoming sanely priced. Maybe lt 1.50 should be up a few more, as NY can dump hard, but don't go crazy. Imho though, the turnout market is wildly underpriced if you think gt 1.50 has a good chance. If you do a county by county analysis and ignore all counties that are 95% counted, we get well under 1.5 using 1.5M votes. And this assumes no blue shift since eday. https://polymarket.com/event/turnout-in-2024-presidential-election

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

I think the reason the turnout is so mispriced is because there is this irresponsible whale that bought too much and is now selling too much.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

This market is becoming sanely priced. Maybe lt 1.50 should be up a few more, as NY can dump hard, but don't go crazy. Imho though, the turnout market is wildly underpriced if you think gt 1.50 has a good chance. If you do a county by county analysis and ignore all counties that are 95% counted, we get well under 1.5 using 1.5M votes. And this assumes no blue shift since eday. https://polymarket.com/event/turnout-in-2024-presidential-election

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

This market is becoming sanely priced. Maybe lt 1.50 should be up a few more, as NY can dump hard, but don't go crazy. Imho though, the turnout market is wildly underpriced if you think gt 1.50 has a good chance. If you do a county by county analysis and ignore all counties that are 95% counted, we get well under 1.5 using 1.5M votes. And this assumes no blue shift since eday. https://polymarket.com/event/turnout-in-2024-presidential-election

2

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Yes, but where is it coming from. That is the question.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Mega: "1.5 only starts having a chance above 155.5m votes..." your math is surreal. Where are these 2 million votes coming from? There is only 680K left in California.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

moron block, didn't even check the activity before he gibbered all over his keyboard

0

Pidor🐓

5 months ago

another sucessful pump and dump by resident schizoid justifax. congrats and sorry to the victims!

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Mega: "1.5 only starts having a chance above 155.5m votes..." your math is surreal. Where are these 2 million votes coming from? There is only 680K left in California.

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

If, on the other hand, you don't think there are enough votes left I strongly encourage you to check out the turnout market where you can get under 155 for a very cheap 9c.

6

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

He probably needs it for the 3rd party vote, heh.

1

Justifax

5 months ago

Kam needs about a net change of ~270K votes to get to 1.5 If there 2M more votes, she needs about a +13 or +14 margin.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Actually, 267K votes is what I have.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Kam needs about a net change of ~270K votes to get to 1.5 If there 2M more votes, she needs about a +13 or +14 margin.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Kam needs about a net change of ~270K votes to get to 1.5 If there 2M more votes, she needs about a +13 or +14 margin.

2

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Where are these 2M votes going to be? Arizona?

0

Flaner

5 months ago

If CA is going to be a bit redder than expected given the bluer cities have given most of what they got, 1.65M votes estimated outside of CA

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Well, Mega or Mega like people.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Maybe late counting in CA will blue shift, maybe not. The real question is how many ballots do you think are left, total across the US?

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

It was a question for Mega :)

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Maybe late counting in CA will blue shift, maybe not. The real question is how many ballots do you think are left, total across the US?

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Maybe late counting in CA will blue shift, maybe not. The real question is how many ballots do you think are left, total across the US?

1

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Great stuff, Mega. One minor problem - how many ballots do you think are left?

2

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Buying 2 to 2.25 as we speak!

2

Flaner

5 months ago

Thank god New Jersey is voting way redder than expected

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

lulz.

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

https://x.com/WinWithJMC/status/1858495430008377426 Est 850k votes to count? Honest question: any clue what he's talking about?

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

9c was a good price. I sometimes don't appreciate how irrational folks can get. It's getting a bit expensive for my tastes at this point.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Fwiw, I've grown my account from $50 to 18K here, for 36000% returns. My original deposit was $250, which I grew to like 3K inside a month. I then ignored all the rules below, and then imploded down to $50. Took much longer to grow it back, but I respected the rules a lot more for obvious reasons.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Favourite-longshot_bias and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion ask chatgpt to explain them with examples. avoiding scams is not profitabe $ wise but profitable karma wise.

1

Justifax

5 months ago

Fwiw, I've grown my account from $50 to 18K here, for 36000% returns. My original deposit was $250, which I grew to like 3K inside a month. I then ignored all the rules below, and then imploded down to $50. Took much longer to grow it back, but I respected the rules a lot more for obvious reasons.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Just here.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

The two best links to consider when deciding to buy or sell are https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Favourite-longshot_bias and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

The way to avoid these scams is a) ignore any post without citation evidence and b) ignore vague, subjective markets.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Fwiw, I've grown my account from $50 to 18K here, for 36000% returns. My original deposit was $250, which I grew to like 3K inside a month. I then ignored all the rules below, and then imploded down to $50. Took much longer to grow it back, but I respected the rules a lot more for obvious reasons.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

The other scam is predatorial disputes in vague markets. Veteran users know UMA bias on how to resolve markets that has nothing to do with the vague rules. It's a very very profitable scam for folks who've been around.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Fwiw, I've grown my account from $50 to 18K here, for 36000% returns. My original deposit was $250, which I grew to like 3K inside a month. I then ignored all the rules below, and then imploded down to $50. Took much longer to grow it back, but I respected the rules a lot more for obvious reasons.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Pumping via vague BS is the biggest scam. People will buy low, and then basically lie without any proof so their sell orders will get hit. Not only is this fraud, it also makes prediction markets worthless as a source of information.

1

Justifax

5 months ago

Fwiw, I've grown my account from $50 to 18K here, for 36000% returns. My original deposit was $250, which I grew to like 3K inside a month. I then ignored all the rules below, and then imploded down to $50. Took much longer to grow it back, but I respected the rules a lot more for obvious reasons.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

I've also done all of this without participating in scams, of which there are many on this site. This is definitely the hardest rule to follow because the scams on poly are extremely profitable

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Fwiw, I've grown my account from $50 to 18K here, for 36000% returns. My original deposit was $250, which I grew to like 3K inside a month. I then ignored all the rules below, and then imploded down to $50. Took much longer to grow it back, but I respected the rules a lot more for obvious reasons.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Fwiw, I've grown my account from $50 to 18K here, for 36000% returns. My original deposit was $250, which I grew to like 3K inside a month. I then ignored all the rules below, and then imploded down to $50. Took much longer to grow it back, but I respected the rules a lot more for obvious reasons.

7

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

If you lose when at 1%, maybe try paper trading for a while.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

The two best links to consider when deciding to buy or sell are https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Favourite-longshot_bias and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Bonds (markets say priced at more than 90%) do not count as 'wins'.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

The two best links to consider when deciding to buy or sell are https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Favourite-longshot_bias and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Eg, start out with a rule of 1%. If you win a bet, increase it to 2%. If you lose a bet, go back to 1%.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

The two best links to consider when deciding to buy or sell are https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Favourite-longshot_bias and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Generally, on poly, most people have a rule of thumb never to bet more than 5% of their bankroll or something on any one market. Whatever the %, start small and increase it as you get more wins, and decrease everytime you lose.

1

Justifax

5 months ago

The two best links to consider when deciding to buy or sell are https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Favourite-longshot_bias and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Another good link is https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Portfolio_optimization, the whole point is reducing risk of ruin while increasing ROI.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

The two best links to consider when deciding to buy or sell are https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Favourite-longshot_bias and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

The longshot did OK here. That's very uncommon. Bet sizing (KC) is always appropriate, no matter what.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

The two best links to consider when deciding to buy or sell are https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Favourite-longshot_bias and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

The two best links to consider when deciding to buy or sell are https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Favourite-longshot_bias and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion

5

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

in case you missed it, this is satire. ignore vague meaningess posts telling you when and to when not to sell.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

please do not sell lt 1.5 until after I've sold mine, kthx.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

please do not sell lt 1.5 until after I've sold mine, kthx.

1

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

One thing I've been struggling to find is ballot count for NY and NJ, two of the 'biggest' states left. If you go to the sos site for NJ, it looks like maybe 70K provisionals. https://www.nj.gov/state/elections/election-results-information.shtml For NY, I looked but couldn't find anything. Fwiw, they had a massive 750K dump around Dec 1st of 2020 which cause a +0.4 shift to biden's margin. https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_New_York&oldid=991813586 They had weird counting laws in 2020 tho for NY.

1

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

In terms of Red states, yes there are provisionals and overseas. These both experience hard blue shifts, however.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

There is about a 316,485 net change required for Kam to get to lt 1.5. At a +21 for Harris (eg, 57\36), that will require 1.5M more votes.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

In terms of obsession, I am most def obsessed with Andrei.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Andrei has seemingly lowered his lower bound to 1.3, at least that is my read on this tweet - https://x.com/andrei__roman/status/1857948747738620110?s=46

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Yeh, he knows about Poly so is probably trying to stay out of it. It's interesting he mentioned it again though, however it's also interesting he's put a hard lower bound on it. Tough to know what he's thinking exactly.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Andrei has seemingly lowered his lower bound to 1.3, at least that is my read on this tweet - https://x.com/andrei__roman/status/1857948747738620110?s=46

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

There is about a 316,485 net change required for Kam to get to lt 1.5. At a +21 for Harris (eg, 57\36), that will require 1.5M more votes.

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

A block feature would really make these comments nirvana. For real.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

All this yapping about being a dumper, and nobody tries to front run me. Sad.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Yeh, I wish I could block you. Please ask on the discord for this feature!

0

Justifax

5 months ago

All this yapping about being a dumper, and nobody tries to front run me. Sad.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Andrei has seemingly lowered his lower bound to 1.3, at least that is my read on this tweet - https://x.com/andrei__roman/status/1857948747738620110?s=46

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

oh wait, you're right. You got me. I asked chat who rabs might be. That and one google search. Clearly obsessed!

0

Justifax

5 months ago

For the record, posting evidence backed up by links and hard data is not 'pumping'. Pump is saying vague meaningless opinion based shit like the DecoupleUMA moron below.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

All this yapping about being a dumper, and nobody tries to front run me. Sad.

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

You're reading too much into idle posts. I think I did one google search on 'nate rabs' and that was the entirety of my investigation.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

For the record, posting evidence backed up by links and hard data is not 'pumping'. Pump is saying vague meaningless opinion based shit like the DecoupleUMA moron below.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Oh I get it now, it's the scammer car. Should have known.

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

No, the problem is that I was too decisive. I think there is so much rampant copytrading on Poly people freak out when they don't know what someone is doing.

1

Justifax

5 months ago

For the record, posting evidence backed up by links and hard data is not 'pumping'. Pump is saying vague meaningless opinion based shit like the DecoupleUMA moron below.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Posting well sourced evidence is valuable alpha for both buyers and sellers.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

For the record, posting evidence backed up by links and hard data is not 'pumping'. Pump is saying vague meaningless opinion based shit like the DecoupleUMA moron below.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

For the record, posting evidence backed up by links and hard data is not 'pumping'. Pump is saying vague meaningless opinion based shit like the DecoupleUMA moron below.

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Yeah, I want to sell it all. You should try to front run me.

1

Flaner

5 months ago

What is going on here

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

@DecoupleUMA is all bullshit no action, I guess. Now's his chance to buy up and sell to me as I dump, but instead he just yaps away

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Huh, now's your chance man. I'm a pump a dumper, front run me!!

0

Pidor🐓

5 months ago

grats gizmo on filling those sell orders. no one works harder than you on this site to pump and dump!

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

900K UOCAVA in 2020. "very favorable for Democrats" Florida itself has barely started counting these yet. https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/17/politics/overseas-voters-lawsuits-democrats-republicans/index.html https://floridaelectionwatch.gov/CountyReportingStatus https://www.eac.gov/sites/default/files/document_library/files/2020_EAVS_Report_Final_508c.pdf

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

By 317,201 left I am saying Kam needs a net change of +317K to get below 1.5% margin

0

Justifax

5 months ago

317,201 left, assuming we get ufl turnout. If there was only 400K left, then we would need more, around 365K, and Captain's numbers below would be correct..

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

I don't believe lt 1.5 is a lock, just mispriced. If you disagree, check out the turnout market. 40c if you don't think there are 2M more ballots to count. to And fwiw: https://x.com/Redistrict/status/1857993735952327141 As per usual, many of the initial claims of plunges in urban Dem turnout (i.e. "20% down in Chicago") are proving premature; many major cities simply had (and still have) a ton of ballots left to count.

1

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

tbf, we're quibbling at that point. If a few thousand matter, than the prices here would be dramatically different.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

317,201 left, assuming we get ufl turnout. If there was only 400K left, then we would need more, around 365K, and Captain's numbers below would be correct..

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

317,201 left, assuming we get ufl turnout. If there was only 400K left, then we would need more, around 365K, and Captain's numbers below would be correct..

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

ta works *sometimes* on poly for short term trading, but has zero bearing on final outcome.

0

Oxf240RS2016

5 months ago

Yes on 155+ forming an incredibly bullish triple bottom chart pattern.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

Pumping for lower prices, that is.

1

Justifax

5 months ago

Obviously this statement is pure pumping. Kickstand7 sells aggressively anything that is overpriced. It's possible KS has no clue, but at the very least he never thought it was overpriced. "Kickstand7 35.7K 150-155m 4h ago Finally, rabs is tapped out. Now we can get 155-160 to a fairish of 75c?

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

Obviously this statement is pure pumping. Kickstand7 sells aggressively anything that is overpriced. It's possible KS has no clue, but at the very least he never thought it was overpriced. "Kickstand7 35.7K 150-155m 4h ago Finally, rabs is tapped out. Now we can get 155-160 to a fairish of 75c?

1

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

Also, if it was a priority, he would be recording his estimates for model evaluation so he can improve it. But he doesn't, and why should he, we'll all know the truth soon enough. The only people who care about this is us.

1

Justifax

5 months ago

It's possible the ufl dude is roughly trying to project, but seriously, he can't be bothered to take 2 minutes to correct nj and il for undercounting. It's obvious it's not a priority or focus for him. When mistakes are this low hanging, you know it's not a real effort.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

If the reason was his 'model' he could have just corrected the two states and than reduced numbers in one of the other states.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

It's possible the ufl dude is roughly trying to project, but seriously, he can't be bothered to take 2 minutes to correct nj and il for undercounting. It's obvious it's not a priority or focus for him. When mistakes are this low hanging, you know it's not a real effort.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

It's possible the ufl dude is roughly trying to project, but seriously, he can't be bothered to take 2 minutes to correct nj and il for undercounting. It's obvious it's not a priority or focus for him. When mistakes are this low hanging, you know it's not a real effort.

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

It's possible rabs is really that, uhm, silly, to think that ufl confusion is alpha and it's also possible fredi bet 50M because he thought he saw a typo in the nyt.

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

https://polymarket.com/event/turnout-in-2024-presidential-election

0

Justifax

5 months ago

If you don't think there is enough votes left, a cheaper hedge might be the turnout market at a cool 42.9c.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

If you don't think there is enough votes left, a cheaper hedge might be the turnout market at a cool 42.9c.

1

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

326,155 left.

1

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Small batch just reported, now only 334K required.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

In order to get to lt 1.5, Kam needs to net 340K against Trump. The more votes left, the easier time she has of it. Eg: 1619 votes, she needs +21(eg, 58\37); 1700 votes +20 (57\37); 1888 votes +18 (56\38); 2125 votes +16 (55\39), 2428 votes +14 (54\40), 2833 votes +12 (53\41), 3400 votes +10 (52\42)

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

In order to get to lt 1.5, Kam needs to net 340K against Trump. The more votes left, the easier time she has of it. Eg: 1619 votes, she needs +21(eg, 58\37); 1700 votes +20 (57\37); 1888 votes +18 (56\38); 2125 votes +16 (55\39), 2428 votes +14 (54\40), 2833 votes +12 (53\41), 3400 votes +10 (52\42)

1

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

that's my sense as well, but i'm already pretty in deep against these guys (and others, tbf) so, we'll see i guess.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

so the question i have and need to figure out, does rabs know what he is doing or is just a silly gamble? He trumpito and donor have put a bunch of money into the pv margin market which is somewhat governed by turnout. if he knows what he's doing, than i am at risk in that market and don't want to be in this one. if he doesn't know what he's doing, than i might consider buying here. tricky

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

I don't have 300k i can just lose like you can, apparently.

1

Justifax

5 months ago

so the question i have and need to figure out, does rabs know what he is doing or is just a silly gamble? He trumpito and donor have put a bunch of money into the pv margin market which is somewhat governed by turnout. if he knows what he's doing, than i am at risk in that market and don't want to be in this one. if he doesn't know what he's doing, than i might consider buying here. tricky

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

well i can't whale into markets with reckless abandon, so truth seeking is all i have.

1

Justifax

5 months ago

so the question i have and need to figure out, does rabs know what he is doing or is just a silly gamble? He trumpito and donor have put a bunch of money into the pv margin market which is somewhat governed by turnout. if he knows what he's doing, than i am at risk in that market and don't want to be in this one. if he doesn't know what he's doing, than i might consider buying here. tricky

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

if rabs doesn't buy more here, i think he might have finally given up and it was just a silly bet all along. cause it was fairly obviously going to hit 155, but maybe he had some secret knowledge that nobody else had.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

so the question i have and need to figure out, does rabs know what he is doing or is just a silly gamble? He trumpito and donor have put a bunch of money into the pv margin market which is somewhat governed by turnout. if he knows what he's doing, than i am at risk in that market and don't want to be in this one. if he doesn't know what he's doing, than i might consider buying here. tricky

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

a part of this is that there is a whale or whales on kalshi which is probably the source of most of my grief. it could be rabs is that whale or maybe someone else. not sure

0

Justifax

5 months ago

so the question i have and need to figure out, does rabs know what he is doing or is just a silly gamble? He trumpito and donor have put a bunch of money into the pv margin market which is somewhat governed by turnout. if he knows what he's doing, than i am at risk in that market and don't want to be in this one. if he doesn't know what he's doing, than i might consider buying here. tricky

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

so the question i have and need to figure out, does rabs know what he is doing or is just a silly gamble? He trumpito and donor have put a bunch of money into the pv margin market which is somewhat governed by turnout. if he knows what he's doing, than i am at risk in that market and don't want to be in this one. if he doesn't know what he's doing, than i might consider buying here. tricky

1

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

it was a joke

0

Justifax

5 months ago

rabs any chance you can do another major pump so i can buy back in :)

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

rabs any chance you can do another major pump so i can buy back in :)

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

https://www.nj.gov/state/elections/election-results-information.shtml

0

Justifax

5 months ago

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/new-jersey-president-results So after cali, nep\edison says new jersey has 306K outstanding. Edison is pretty good, imho, but I can't figure out how they get this number.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

I went through here and only saw maybe 70K oustanding, mostly provisionals.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/new-jersey-president-results So after cali, nep\edison says new jersey has 306K outstanding. Edison is pretty good, imho, but I can't figure out how they get this number.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/new-jersey-president-results So after cali, nep\edison says new jersey has 306K outstanding. Edison is pretty good, imho, but I can't figure out how they get this number.

1

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

oh right. i thought you had like a central one heh

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Brutal website, but they're already at 153.1 https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G24/PresidentVoteByParty.phtml

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

damn this dude is a total jerkwad who just wants to gamble like a wild animal. brutal!!

1

Pidor🐓

5 months ago

damn this dude is up 8k in a year of just 12 hrs/day SPAMMING the comments like a wild animal, brutal. anyway, it's very likely 1.5-1.75 now that alameda blew their load

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Seems odd they'd lump them in with the provisionals Statewide Statistics Outstanding Absentee & Provisional Ballots 220,046

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Ohio has gt 200K absentee + Provisionals https://liveresults.ohiosos.gov/ https://www.cleveland.com/datacentral/2020/10/clinton-obama-kerry-all-did-better-in-ohio-with-votes-added-after-unofficial-election-day-counts.html

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

hmm link?

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Brutal website, but they're already at 153.1 https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G24/PresidentVoteByParty.phtml

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

Brutal website, but they're already at 153.1 https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G24/PresidentVoteByParty.phtml

1

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Ohio has gt 200K absentee + Provisionals https://liveresults.ohiosos.gov/ https://www.cleveland.com/datacentral/2020/10/clinton-obama-kerry-all-did-better-in-ohio-with-votes-added-after-unofficial-election-day-counts.html

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

cheers.

1

New.Jeans

5 months ago

My model updated

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

https://polymarket.com/event/turnout-in-2024-presidential-election?tid=1731768487752

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Trumpito, Rabs and Donor are in the lt 155 market. If they are right about this, they are probably right about that too. It might be a good hedge.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Trumpito, Rabs and Donor are in the lt 155 market. If they are right about this, they are probably right about that too. It might be a good hedge.

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

You can also try gte 95 but have to only reduce estimates by 1% to get 365K

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Here is some code you can run against nep at a county level. It ignores counties gt 98%, reduces all estimates by 3% of total votes, and doesn't account for blue shift in late counting (which most def exists). Pretty conservative imho. It gives a net delta of 363K for Harris. code: https://pastebin.com/qp5F3sWwH output: https://pastebin.com/x7NzDcPr

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

So if that's true, than we are in wonderland of awesome prices. If I didn't think prices will go lower, I'd buy buy buy.

0

XiJinPing

5 months ago

this should be more 50-50 than 80-20 lol.... all votes left are from dem majority states

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

they forgot to use their wash trade account before posting

0

New.Jeans

5 months ago

My model updated

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

I track this also using ddhq and at a state level as well. It has some issues, sure, but it balances out imho and it's just another model in the toolbox.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Here is some code you can run against nep at a county level. It ignores counties gt 98%, reduces all estimates by 3% of total votes, and doesn't account for blue shift in late counting (which most def exists). Pretty conservative imho. It gives a net delta of 363K for Harris. code: https://pastebin.com/qp5F3sWwH output: https://pastebin.com/x7NzDcPr

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Here is some code you can run against nep at a county level. It ignores counties gt 98%, reduces all estimates by 3% of total votes, and doesn't account for blue shift in late counting (which most def exists). Pretty conservative imho. It gives a net delta of 363K for Harris. code: https://pastebin.com/qp5F3sWwH output: https://pastebin.com/x7NzDcPr

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

soooooooooo not selling?

0

New.Jeans

5 months ago

I expect the market to move to 154.2M by tonight

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

Are you using https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/, we were at 152.8 yesterday

0

New.Jeans

5 months ago

My model updated

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

that said, you can use turnout as a hedge. if rabs knows what he is doing, it is more likely to hit. if he doesn't, this than under 1.5 is more likely to hit. trumpito is in on it as well

1

Justifax

5 months ago

Fun stuff, from Nov 27th in 2020 to Dec 2nd 2020, the margin went from +3.9 to +4.4. A 0.5 shift in just a few days during the certification period of a number of states.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Oh yeh, for sure. This market is agnostic about turnout, totally. It's all about vote split.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Fun stuff, from Nov 27th in 2020 to Dec 2nd 2020, the margin went from +3.9 to +4.4. A 0.5 shift in just a few days during the certification period of a number of states.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Yeh, be careful. Rabs has spent like mass amounts in the turnout market. It's possible he has some kind of internal campaign info. That said, looking at his profile, he seems to have a poor track record with margin markets.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Fun stuff, from Nov 27th in 2020 to Dec 2nd 2020, the margin went from +3.9 to +4.4. A 0.5 shift in just a few days during the certification period of a number of states.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

I am hoping it's the former as they for reasons I don't understand didn't buy no on the 1.75 bracket, which seemed very obvious to me. But we will see.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Fun stuff, from Nov 27th in 2020 to Dec 2nd 2020, the margin went from +3.9 to +4.4. A 0.5 shift in just a few days during the certification period of a number of states.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Yeh, I think this will go lower tbh. There are two possibilities, the buyers of this are not rational, in which case they will buy lower when things stall margin wise, or the buyers know what they're doing, in which case they will definitely buy lower.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Fun stuff, from Nov 27th in 2020 to Dec 2nd 2020, the margin went from +3.9 to +4.4. A 0.5 shift in just a few days during the certification period of a number of states.

Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?

Justifax

5 months ago

maybe windwalk owns electionatlas

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2020_United_States_presidential_election&oldid=991807860

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Fun stuff, from Nov 27th in 2020 to Dec 2nd 2020, the margin went from +3.9 to +4.4. A 0.5 shift in just a few days during the certification period of a number of states.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2020_United_States_presidential_election&oldid=991047022

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Fun stuff, from Nov 27th in 2020 to Dec 2nd 2020, the margin went from +3.9 to +4.4. A 0.5 shift in just a few days during the certification period of a number of states.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Fun stuff, from Nov 27th in 2020 to Dec 2nd 2020, the margin went from +3.9 to +4.4. A 0.5 shift in just a few days during the certification period of a number of states.

1

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

Good question. Do you know why it happened?

0

Justifax

5 months ago

I'll admit, one of the reasons I sold was because looking through the wiki I saw the vote count decrease dramatically. Eg: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2020_United_States_presidential_election&oldid=990692251 to https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2020_United_States_presidential_election&oldid=991047022 If anyone has an explanation for this, would love to hear it.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

I'll admit, one of the reasons I sold was because looking through the wiki I saw the vote count decrease dramatically. Eg: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2020_United_States_presidential_election&oldid=990692251 to https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2020_United_States_presidential_election&oldid=991047022 If anyone has an explanation for this, would love to hear it.

1

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

LOL what the hell is windwalk doing. I mean, for real.

1

top453

5 months ago

Hi everyone, if you are debating whether it is around 155m, I suggest paying attention to this market. If the number of votes is around 155m, this will be 50% free money. https://polymarket.com/event/will-2-of-votes-go-to-3rd-party-candidates-in-us-election/will-2-of-votes-go-to-3rd-party-candidates-in-us-election?tid=1731755123672

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

How much did other increase after 10 days of counting in 2020 and 2016?

0

top453

5 months ago

Hi everyone, if you are debating whether it is around 155m, I suggest paying attention to this market. If the number of votes is around 155m, this will be 50% free money. https://polymarket.com/event/will-2-of-votes-go-to-3rd-party-candidates-in-us-election/will-2-of-votes-go-to-3rd-party-candidates-in-us-election?tid=1731755123672

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

Cool, does that count for writeins? I mean, we could see a jump near the end of the vote I think for 'other'.

0

top453

5 months ago

Hi everyone, if you are debating whether it is around 155m, I suggest paying attention to this market. If the number of votes is around 155m, this will be 50% free money. https://polymarket.com/event/will-2-of-votes-go-to-3rd-party-candidates-in-us-election/will-2-of-votes-go-to-3rd-party-candidates-in-us-election?tid=1731755123672

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

What model? How does it work? What data are you using?

0

gekko888

5 months ago

My modelling says 155.07M and the odds are reflecting this. Anyone wanting to call 150-155 vs 155-160 should back it up with $$$. I am on the fence

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

It's really bad on kalshi. The level of scamming going on there is off the charts. Strange considering all the kyc they have.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

I have to say, after reading 1000s of comments, the vague meaningless posts backed up by zero evidence .. just getting a little repetitive. You could be pumping for volatility, lower prices, higher prices, who knows. Whatever it is you're doing, you're adding zip.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

I have to say, after reading 1000s of comments, the vague meaningless posts backed up by zero evidence .. just getting a little repetitive. You could be pumping for volatility, lower prices, higher prices, who knows. Whatever it is you're doing, you're adding zip.

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

Is that you car?

0

gekko888

5 months ago

My modelling says 155.07M and the odds are reflecting this. Anyone wanting to call 150-155 vs 155-160 should back it up with $$$. I am on the fence

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

https://apnews.com/projects/election-results-2024/virginia/?r=0

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Strange mystery, NEP and DDHQ report 2,333,126 for Harris in Virginia. AP reports 2,235,958 and atlas reports 2,303,946. This is about 24 hours after the dump came from them. Every site updated except AP it seems, and atlas only partially.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2024&fips=51&f=0&off=0&elect=0

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Strange mystery, NEP and DDHQ report 2,333,126 for Harris in Virginia. AP reports 2,235,958 and atlas reports 2,303,946. This is about 24 hours after the dump came from them. Every site updated except AP it seems, and atlas only partially.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

https://decisiondeskhq.com/results/2024/General/President/

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Strange mystery, NEP and DDHQ report 2,333,126 for Harris in Virginia. AP reports 2,235,958 and atlas reports 2,303,946. This is about 24 hours after the dump came from them. Every site updated except AP it seems, and atlas only partially.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/virginia-president-results

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Strange mystery, NEP and DDHQ report 2,333,126 for Harris in Virginia. AP reports 2,235,958 and atlas reports 2,303,946. This is about 24 hours after the dump came from them. Every site updated except AP it seems, and atlas only partially.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

Strange mystery, NEP and DDHQ report 2,333,126 for Harris in Virginia. AP reports 2,235,958 and atlas reports 2,303,946. This is about 24 hours after the dump came from them. Every site updated except AP it seems, and atlas only partially.

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Part of the problem is that its hard getting accurate ground truth vote counts. The dump from virginia I don't know that anyone saw that coming.

1

Emm8002022

5 months ago

apparently there is a 3 million votes left and its 1.8% https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/05/us/elections/results-president.html

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

The whale *might* be rabs, who is also in the turnout market. It *might* be a known trump insider (not going to dox him) and could have access to info we don't have. Or he could just going wiggy and betting against Nate because he hates Nate. Not sure..

0

Emm8002022

5 months ago

apparently there is a 3 million votes left and its 1.8% https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/05/us/elections/results-president.html

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

NBC and CNN use NEP\edison

0

Emm8002022

5 months ago

apparently there is a 3 million votes left and its 1.8% https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/05/us/elections/results-president.html

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

NYT uses ap, though I think NEP/edison research might be more accurate. You can also use the min value from all three.

0

Emm8002022

5 months ago

apparently there is a 3 million votes left and its 1.8% https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/05/us/elections/results-president.html

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Nobody really does that very well. You can scrape it from ddhq or ap, but the results are somewhat debatable and underlies the uncertainty in the market.

0

Emm8002022

5 months ago

apparently there is a 3 million votes left and its 1.8% https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/05/us/elections/results-president.html

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

the current margin is 1.75 according to this. We did get a big dump from alameda tho, but also a surprise 130k dump from Virginia.

0

Emm8002022

5 months ago

apparently there is a 3 million votes left and its 1.8% https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/05/us/elections/results-president.html

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ This uses *all votes* including writeins. It's the resolution source for the turnout market.

1

Emm8002022

5 months ago

apparently there is a 3 million votes left and its 1.8% https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/05/us/elections/results-president.html

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

This means we need to net about 100K outside california for Kam to hit 1.5. There are some reddish areas left, true, but I think a lot of that is provisional and mail in which should be somewhat purple.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

One thing to keep in mind is that nearly 50% of the ballots left in Cali are Same Day Registration or Provisionals. The rest are mailin ballots. On reddish SB has a few ballot box votes left. Just going by delta since my baseline, I expect to net a further 200K from cali for Kam, but perhaps even more because of these CVRs.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

One thing to keep in mind is that nearly 50% of the ballots left in Cali are Same Day Registration or Provisionals. The rest are mailin ballots. On reddish SB has a few ballot box votes left. Just going by delta since my baseline, I expect to net a further 200K from cali for Kam, but perhaps even more because of these CVRs.

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Yep, for sure. Which is why I use the 58\37 split and not something more aggressive. Utah\Arizona and some red counties will cause some pain.

1

Justifax

5 months ago

Check my math: we just need another ~1.4M votes and a 58/37 split for Kam to get to 1.5 900K of those will be in Cali for sure, so just need ~500K in ny\nj\il\wa\or\md

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Of that 1.4, 900-1M will come from cal. 400-500 can come from blue states which are still counting like ny\nj\il\wa\or\md\co

1

Justifax

5 months ago

Check my math: we just need another ~1.4M votes and a 58/37 split for Kam to get to 1.5 900K of those will be in Cali for sure, so just need ~500K in ny\nj\il\wa\or\md

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Hmmm, I am not sure what these people are talking about. Did I miss something? We need another net +310K for Kam to get to 1.5. For a +21 split like 58/37, this will require 1.4M votes total. 820K will go to Kam, and 510K will go to trump, for a net gain of 310K votes. So we only need 1.4M more votes. Make sense?

3

Justifax

5 months ago

Check my math: we just need another ~1.4M votes and a 58/37 split for Kam to get to 1.5 900K of those will be in Cali for sure, so just need ~500K in ny\nj\il\wa\or\md

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

late december? google cert dates

0

shogun2077

5 months ago

anyone know when this'll be resolved?

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

I know wow he really fooled me!!

1

Kickstand7

5 months ago

Gonna be 100/0 tomorrow, that update sealed it

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Could even be 1M left in Cali, including uncured votes and any laggards.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Check my math: we just need another ~1.4M votes and a 58/37 split for Kam to get to 1.5 900K of those will be in Cali for sure, so just need ~500K in ny\nj\il\wa\or\md

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Check my math: we just need another ~1.4M votes and a 58/37 split for Kam to get to 1.5 900K of those will be in Cali for sure, so just need ~500K in ny\nj\il\wa\or\md

2

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

The feeling is mutual, don't worry.

2

Pidor🐓

5 months ago

gizmo can u get your first job or gf or something? give it a rest, fuck me

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

I've mostly ignored the ufl page. It's results seem to be missing obvious stuff like the nj/il undercount.

1

Justifax

5 months ago

To be clear, resolution is here - https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/. 2.21M votes left are required for 155 bracket to win. Note how they are 400K ahead of vote trackers.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

I missed the detail on the ufl page. Now some of the over estimations make sense. I didn't understand why they added 195K to virginia.

1

Justifax

5 months ago

To be clear, resolution is here - https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/. 2.21M votes left are required for 155 bracket to win. Note how they are 400K ahead of vote trackers.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

To be clear, resolution is here - https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/. 2.21M votes left are required for 155 bracket to win. Note how they are 400K ahead of vote trackers.

2

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

So in our reality, AP is estimate 156.1M

1

Justifax

5 months ago

as SS said, AP is at 155,703,156.00. Not sure where that 155.3 est below came from. Perhaps you can explain? Also, the estimate does not include the 400K extra writein+ that atlas includes.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

as SS said, AP is at 155,703,156.00. Not sure where that 155.3 est below came from. Perhaps you can explain? Also, the estimate does not include the 400K extra writein+ that atlas includes.

1

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Skeptical the 1.5+ bracket knows what they are they doing. If they did, they would have wiped out the 1.75 bracket quite a while ago. We are already at 1.75 and only 10 days after the election.

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

When comparing current count against u of florida(ufl) for a few states, like Ohio, Virgina (why did ufl add so much? Anyone know), FL, MA there is room to tweak ufl down a bit, but it's good to remember that these vote trackers are missing around 400K that is on election atlas. Between that and the undercounting for IL/NJ by 300k+, 155.6 looks like a decent final estimate.

1

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

It's ok keith, we've all been there.

2

rabs

5 months ago

oh man i really messed up :(( i had an excel spreadsheet error

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

And that includes a 250K reduction in CA. Current count of IL/NJ is about 200k over his estimates, and that's not including all the ballots left to count in those two states.

1

ack

5 months ago

New ElectionLab estimate for Friday. 155,687,644, up from 155,547,700.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Surprisingly, AP has increased its estimates for illinois and new york. Together they account for 300K more ballots.

1

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

Curiously, AP has increased its estimates for both Illinois and New York. Together they account for 300K more ballots.

3

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

warning HLB doesn't even know that states have already certified

0

Andy0091

5 months ago

UnlimitedMarket: Cali estimates remaining votes are 1.7 million, if we reduce it by 9% drop in turnout compared to 2020 like NYC which is the closest comparision, that puts outstanding votes at a more realistic 1.5million, split that by the 60/40 that puts us at Trump 50.1% to Kamala 48.3 with a 1.754 margin

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

And virginia just dropped a shit load of ballots.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

Andy, you realize it's already at 1.9, right?

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Andy, you realize it's already at 1.9, right?

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

lulz many states have certified.

1

Betwick

5 months ago

Babe, wake up. New votes just dropped and Kam got over 60% of the last 465k

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

Justifax

5 months ago

yeh true.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

barak @ axios is legit, but for consensus you need another one. wsj or nyt or reuters etc. jpost i guess not, since they reported the invasion started in september...

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

Justifax

5 months ago

well so did nyt, so i guess they're not legit either. huh.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

barak @ axios is legit, but for consensus you need another one. wsj or nyt or reuters etc. jpost i guess not, since they reported the invasion started in september...

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

Justifax

5 months ago

barak @ axios is legit, but for consensus you need another one. wsj or nyt or reuters etc. jpost i guess not, since they reported the invasion started in september...

2

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

It's just AP results. There are only 3 sources of data, ap, nep\edison research and ddhq. all the outlets just syndicate their data

1

JDoe

5 months ago

According to https://ig.ft.com/us-elections/2024/results/president/?seat_id=P-CA-00 85.5% of precincts reporting... If this is somehow true, then lol. this will be over much sooner than we expect

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

I asked chat to summarize the entire comment history of this market - https://chatgpt.com/share/6737489a-3fb8-800a-a4df-ff32768cf9f1

1

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

Yeh, for our purposes it looks pretty silly, but if someone believes him there is a great opportunity in the margin market.

0

Neoss

5 months ago

JMC estimate still 153.9M. No change from yesterday. https://x.com/WinWithJMC/status/1857399233365623001

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

There isn't really a 'market' at this point. Thin order book.

1

HLB

5 months ago

Market flipped on a typo lmao

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

https://polymarket.com/event/popular-vote-margin-of-victory-0pt25-ranges?tid=1731672525199

0

Neoss

5 months ago

JMC estimate still 153.9M. No change from yesterday. https://x.com/WinWithJMC/status/1857399233365623001

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

If you have any confidence in JMC, go bet large in the pov market because 1.5 is super super cheap.

0

Neoss

5 months ago

JMC estimate still 153.9M. No change from yesterday. https://x.com/WinWithJMC/status/1857399233365623001

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Liquidity dried up on the order book it looks like

0

Betwick

5 months ago

Babe, wake up. New votes just dropped and Kam got over 60% of the last 465k

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

ruh roh

0

0xa9E8FaF20424F3efBF12abaEa0e7069d7546C443-1727183987392

5 months ago

Why is 155-160mn only 60%? The Uni of Florida Election Lab already has 155.5mn ballots counted.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

lol https://x.com/EnnePoe/status/1857399645904707764

5

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

The post is in german and Frederick and his brother are fluent in german.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

So rabs is Keith Rabois, and Fredi is Frederick Arnault, btw. I got it all figured out.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

Maybe, though Frederick used to date a model and influencer caro, eg, princesscaro. And there is a post somewhere by Fredi9999 talking about real estate in a city in monaco, where their family owns a bunch of RE.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

So rabs is Keith Rabois, and Fredi is Frederick Arnault, btw. I got it all figured out.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Looks like a bug, neither ap, nep, or even ddhq (the source for the economist) have this.

1

n/a

5 months ago

https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/results/president

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

Lol, economist.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

uhm, https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/results/president

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

CA is only 86% reported according to this. That would mean they have another 2.4M votes left. Lol.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

uhm, https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/results/president

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

It's like 1.7M vote difference total

1

Justifax

5 months ago

uhm, https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/results/president

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

At the bottom it says their source is ddhq. Hmmm

0

Justifax

5 months ago

uhm, https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/results/president

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

neither does atlas

0

Justifax

5 months ago

uhm, https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/results/president

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

ap, ddhq, and nep don't have this yet.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

uhm, https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/results/president

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

uhm, https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/results/president

2

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

Frederick has an applied statistics / quant background. He and his bro were heavily into nfts. Trump lauded his brother hugely at maralago.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

So rabs is Keith Rabois, and Fredi is Frederick Arnault, btw. I got it all figured out.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

So rabs is Keith Rabois, and Fredi is Frederick Arnault, btw. I got it all figured out.

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

Maybe it was just a joke though.

0

nyp

5 months ago

I guarantee you rabs was created from "Rabois"

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

https://www.khoslaventures.com/team/keith-rabois/ I dunno

0

nyp

5 months ago

I guarantee you rabs was created from "Rabois"

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/state-election-results-certification-dates-2024/ Cert dates.

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

Given Nate's exceedingly erratic predictions \ estimations so far, I could see him predicting something below 155 and sending this into spasms. TBH, at this point he should just stop. He clearly has no clue.

3

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

According to https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/index.html, we're already at 1.9 Curious what the case is for 1.75

1

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

This assumes that AP doesn't plan to add that in for their end results somehow.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

One thing to keep in mind is that election atlas is reporting a number significantly higher than AP if you're using AP for your results. For example, EA is reporting 152,025,349 whereas AP is reporting 151,648,806.00. So you have to add about 400K to AP total estimates, which currently stand at 155.7M, for 161.1M

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

One thing to keep in mind is that election atlas is reporting a number significantly higher than AP if you're using AP for your results. For example, EA is reporting 152,025,349 whereas AP is reporting 151,648,806.00. So you have to add about 400K to AP total estimates, which currently stand at 155.7M, for 161.1M

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

4,441,017.00 election atlas.

1

Danilo3400

5 months ago

Virginia just added a cool 135k votes, while being at 99% for days

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

I don't have much confidence it will hit 155, but 48c now seems a bit underpriced.

1

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

Ah, got it. Cheers, well spotted!

1

Danilo3400

5 months ago

Virginia just added a cool 135k votes, while being at 99% for days

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

Again, for the 100th time, I have not much confidence in the results. So yes, I will trade as new information comes in.

1

Justifax

5 months ago

sos stats are not updated in realtime, so they are quickly obsolete. 14,599,593+1513597+132612=16.24M

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

14,371,216+1529000=15.9M by NEP

0

Justifax

5 months ago

sos stats are not updated in realtime, so they are quickly obsolete. 14,599,593+1513597+132612=16.24M

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

sos stats are not updated in realtime, so they are quickly obsolete. 14,599,593+1513597+132612=16.24M

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

I only see 110K though. How are you getting 135k?

0

Danilo3400

5 months ago

Virginia just added a cool 135k votes, while being at 99% for days

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

yikes

0

Danilo3400

5 months ago

Virginia just added a cool 135k votes, while being at 99% for days

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Yeh, though the turnout might be a better bet here as I mentioned above.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

In the last 3 days, Kam has won about 58.2% of the vote. If this keeps up and there are 3.3M votes left (the turnout market predicts 40% chance of this happening), than the pv mov will be 1.5%. Any blue shift and it will be less. Buying the turnout market for 60c seems cheaper than the 83c here.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

So far, 'other' is at 0.48% whereas it was 0.52% in 2020. https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/national.php?year=2020&f=0&off=0&elect=0

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Yeh, I have to admit though I'm getting skeptical there will be 3.3M votes left. Hopefully though. I bought some insurance in the turnout market.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

In the last 3 days, Kam has won about 58.2% of the vote. If this keeps up and there are 3.3M votes left (the turnout market predicts 40% chance of this happening), than the pv mov will be 1.5%. Any blue shift and it will be less. Buying the turnout market for 60c seems cheaper than the 83c here.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

https://polymarket.com/event/popular-vote-margin-of-victory-0pt25-ranges?tid=1731602789949

0

Justifax

5 months ago

AP estimates there are 2,154,047.00 votes left in CA. NEP reports 1,731,000 votes left. TBH, I think NEP is correct here as they have been accurate about CA all along.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election

0

Justifax

5 months ago

In the last 3 days, Kam has won about 58.2% of the vote. If this keeps up and there are 3.3M votes left (the turnout market predicts 40% chance of this happening), than the pv mov will be 1.5%. Any blue shift and it will be less. Buying the turnout market for 60c seems cheaper than the 83c here.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2020_United_States_presidential_election&oldid=988398331

0

Justifax

5 months ago

In the last 3 days, Kam has won about 58.2% of the vote. If this keeps up and there are 3.3M votes left (the turnout market predicts 40% chance of this happening), than the pv mov will be 1.5%. Any blue shift and it will be less. Buying the turnout market for 60c seems cheaper than the 83c here.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Another way of looking at this is that Biden won 64%! of the vote post November 12th in 2020.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

In the last 3 days, Kam has won about 58.2% of the vote. If this keeps up and there are 3.3M votes left (the turnout market predicts 40% chance of this happening), than the pv mov will be 1.5%. Any blue shift and it will be less. Buying the turnout market for 60c seems cheaper than the 83c here.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

In the last 3 days, Kam has won about 58.2% of the vote. If this keeps up and there are 3.3M votes left (the turnout market predicts 40% chance of this happening), than the pv mov will be 1.5%. Any blue shift and it will be less. Buying the turnout market for 60c seems cheaper than the 83c here.

3

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

Popular vote margin Of Victory heh

0

Justifax

5 months ago

If you believe there are a 1.4M (ca only has 2.1M left) votes in WA + OR + NY + NJ + AZ + MD + UT + CO + IL, you should go buy pv margin for like 7c.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

On Kalshi with 48M, the pv margin market is at 8c https://kalshi.com/markets/popvotemovsmall/popular-vote-margin-of-victory-small

0

Justifax

5 months ago

AP estimates there are 2,154,047.00 votes left in CA. NEP reports 1,731,000 votes left. TBH, I think NEP is correct here as they have been accurate about CA all along.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

It's possible there are 3.4M votes left, sure. But they'd be mostly in blue states and the pv margin bracket would be much larger than 7c.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

AP estimates there are 2,154,047.00 votes left in CA. NEP reports 1,731,000 votes left. TBH, I think NEP is correct here as they have been accurate about CA all along.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

AP estimates there are 2,154,047.00 votes left in CA. NEP reports 1,731,000 votes left. TBH, I think NEP is correct here as they have been accurate about CA all along.

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

Sure, I mean, ok. Than go buy pov for 7c. CA is a great blue state.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

If you believe there are a 1.4M (ca only has 2.1M left) votes in WA + OR + NY + NJ + AZ + MD + UT + CO + IL, you should go buy pv margin for like 7c.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

Except for AZ/UT, these are very blue states and would easily push kam across the 1.5 goal line.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

If you believe there are a 1.4M (ca only has 2.1M left) votes in WA + OR + NY + NJ + AZ + MD + UT + CO + IL, you should go buy pv margin for like 7c.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

If you believe there are a 1.4M (ca only has 2.1M left) votes in WA + OR + NY + NJ + AZ + MD + UT + CO + IL, you should go buy pv margin for like 7c.

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

AP useful, others useless

0

Sardinianshepherd

5 months ago

new update from the estimate: AP: 155.8M (-1M vs YDA) edison research: 157.1M (0M vs YDA) Election lab: 155.5M (+0.2M vs YDA) https://x.com/River_Whales/status/1857011273700880384

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

The AP estimate you can pull down, the edison I don't think you can or at least I haven't seen away. I think they're just dividing / percentage, which won't give good results. The election lab is very inaccurate and he's not fixing obvious errors, so I don't think it's a big commitment by him.

0

Sardinianshepherd

5 months ago

new update from the estimate: AP: 155.8M (-1M vs YDA) edison research: 157.1M (0M vs YDA) Election lab: 155.5M (+0.2M vs YDA) https://x.com/River_Whales/status/1857011273700880384

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

fwiw datapoint, LA was surprisingly accurate in it's estimate in 2020. It started out with 3,722,367 and estimation of 610K ballots to be processed, and ended up certifying 4,338,191 which is 616K above the initial estimate. You can check it yourself here - https://www.lavote.gov/news-room/press-releases and click on 2020

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

I mean, just the fact that Nate has come down from 157 to 155.3 has to give you some pause.

0

Astera

5 months ago

Nate's model is using linear extrapolation as he wrote in a follow up tweet, but that isn't how all the votes drop because of the provisionals. In 2020, total vote was 156.4 M on Nov 23 after a slow climb in the week before then 156.9 M on Nov 31 and then by Dec 5 it was 158.4 M which was near final total. I'm very happy to holding this through the rest of November.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

Well, the two markets are roughly inverse too each other. The higher the count, the more chance kam can close the gap.

0

Astera

5 months ago

Nate's model is using linear extrapolation as he wrote in a follow up tweet, but that isn't how all the votes drop because of the provisionals. In 2020, total vote was 156.4 M on Nov 23 after a slow climb in the week before then 156.9 M on Nov 31 and then by Dec 5 it was 158.4 M which was near final total. I'm very happy to holding this through the rest of November.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

I mean, I hope the count is really high. This is a hedge bet. There is a world I lose twice, but also a lot of world I win twice.

0

Astera

5 months ago

Nate's model is using linear extrapolation as he wrote in a follow up tweet, but that isn't how all the votes drop because of the provisionals. In 2020, total vote was 156.4 M on Nov 23 after a slow climb in the week before then 156.9 M on Nov 31 and then by Dec 5 it was 158.4 M which was near final total. I'm very happy to holding this through the rest of November.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

They fixed provisionals in 2020. There are very few this year. Check out the sos for stats.

0

Astera

5 months ago

Nate's model is using linear extrapolation as he wrote in a follow up tweet, but that isn't how all the votes drop because of the provisionals. In 2020, total vote was 156.4 M on Nov 23 after a slow climb in the week before then 156.9 M on Nov 31 and then by Dec 5 it was 158.4 M which was near final total. I'm very happy to holding this through the rest of November.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Imho, his results aren't worth much. Very curious what Andrei thinks though.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

fwiw, nate has dramatically revised his estimate to 1.55 https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1856967494570782760 Likely he's just using the AP numbers and nothing else. So really, these are just AP predictions. Or something.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

fwiw, nate has dramatically revised his estimate to 1.55 https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1856967494570782760 Likely he's just using the AP numbers and nothing else. So really, these are just AP predictions. Or something.

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

Pretty sure nate is just using AP so he's at the mercy of their estimates. They have dramatically revised it down from 158 to 155.8.

2

Astera

5 months ago

In Nate's second part to the Tweet, stated that he's using a linear extrapolation - this won't capture the large provisional vote dump likely on December which could easily be million plus as saw that in 2020 as well

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

nyt sources from ap, cnn/nbc source from NEP. I dunno about others, but it will say.

1

Justifax

5 months ago

I see a lot of people talking about cnn versus nyt versus nbc or whatever. The results come from either AP or National election pool (which is really edison research) ddhq is a smaller newcomer. https://www.scrippsnews.com/politics/america-votes/what-is-decision-desk-hq-the-service-that-helps-news-outlets-make-race-calls

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

I see a lot of people talking about cnn versus nyt versus nbc or whatever. The results come from either AP or National election pool (which is really edison research) ddhq is a smaller newcomer. https://www.scrippsnews.com/politics/america-votes/what-is-decision-desk-hq-the-service-that-helps-news-outlets-make-race-calls

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

What's left of his rep, that is.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

nate really fucked up, imho. big time. he knows these markets exist. he's scamming hard or he really fucked up.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

Ofc, though they're out just a few dollars. Nate has fucked his rep.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

nate really fucked up, imho. big time. he knows these markets exist. he's scamming hard or he really fucked up.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

nate really fucked up, imho. big time. he knows these markets exist. he's scamming hard or he really fucked up.

1

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1856967494570782760 lulz

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

I'm in the pv margin. I could lose twice, but i could also win twice. If turnout matches what AP predicts, than it's 1.3 Admittedly, they could be over estimating in certain areas but there is also blue shift in late counts.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

One of the reasons I'm hedging here, is AP has come all the way down to 155.8 from 158, and arguably they are still over estimating stuff.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

One of the reasons I'm hedging here, is AP has come all the way down to 155.8 from 158, and arguably they are still over estimating stuff.

2

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

They're just going to post vague meaningless shit, because that's who they are.

1

Justifax

5 months ago

The two key states ufl is underestimating, perhaps deeply, are Illinois and New Jersey. They are already 130K underwater and edison\ap estimate they will have like 700K more ballots to come

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

I would love for Illinois and New Jersey to be undercounted!

0

Justifax

5 months ago

The two key states ufl is underestimating, perhaps deeply, are Illinois and New Jersey. They are already 130K underwater and edison\ap estimate they will have like 700K more ballots to come

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

The two key states ufl is underestimating, perhaps deeply, are Illinois and New Jersey. They are already 130K underwater and edison\ap estimate they will have like 700K more ballots to come

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

Yeh, I saw that.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

According to ufl labs, Ohio has 5.9M. NBC/Edison report 5.6M, so ~300K ballots left in ohio according to ufl. Is this true? Hmm..

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

Yeh, mcpetrus has 0 though. hmmm.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

According to ufl labs, Ohio has 5.9M. NBC/Edison report 5.6M, so ~300K ballots left in ohio according to ufl. Is this true? Hmm..

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

I hope it is true, as provisionals are from urban areas and tend to be hard blue shift. But we'll see.

0

Justifax

5 months ago

According to ufl labs, Ohio has 5.9M. NBC/Edison report 5.6M, so ~300K ballots left in ohio according to ufl. Is this true? Hmm..

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

According to ufl labs, Ohio has 5.9M. NBC/Edison report 5.6M, so ~300K ballots left in ohio according to ufl. Is this true? Hmm..

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

Provisionals have high rejection rates, not sure about CVR

0

Justifax

5 months ago

https://election.lab.ufl.edu/2024-general-election-turnout/ updated. Interesting he's sticking to 16.5M for cali. Guess he expects 400K more ballots to drift in? Sure hope so. :)

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

https://election.lab.ufl.edu/2024-general-election-turnout/ updated. Interesting he's sticking to 16.5M for cali. Guess he expects 400K more ballots to drift in? Sure hope so. :)

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

Hedge against my position in the pov margin.

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

Which author did you write to? I couldn't find one with a name that starts with david

0

Justifax

5 months ago

hey mona.lisa which article did you email about on wapo? That 157m estimate looking silly

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

Sorry which one is that?

0

Justifax

5 months ago

hey mona.lisa which article did you email about on wapo? That 157m estimate looking silly

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

hey mona.lisa which article did you email about on wapo? That 157m estimate looking silly

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

https://x.com/andrei__roman/status/1856689356259352942 Imagine betting against this guy.

4

TruthSearUm

5 months ago

Atlas Intel says 1.34

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

kanye was a lock

1

Justifax

6 months ago

I made a mistake claiming 1.5 is a lock. Fwiw, I am still confident, but absolutely I could be missing something and copy trading me is a very very bad idea.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

It'd be so wild if it's 1.3, going to start thinking atlas intel rigged the vote.

0

mcpetrus

5 months ago

Missing ballots ~4,107,000 ----- Calculated final result: GOP +1.31 ----- Detail: GOP 76,937,724 ((( 49.74 % ))) ----- DEM 74,901,640 ((( 48.43 % ))) ----- Other 2,832,506 ((( 1.83 % ))) ----- 154,671,870 votes in total - turnout 62 - 64 %.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

My issue is he's ignoring mil\overseas\provisionals https://www.eac.gov/sites/default/files/document_library/files/2020_EAVS_Report_Final_508c.pdf

0

mcpetrus

5 months ago

Missing ballots ~4,107,000 ----- Calculated votes in total: 154,671,870 ----- turnout 62 - 64 %.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

That's his post from the mov market

0

mcpetrus

5 months ago

Missing ballots ~4,107,000 ----- Calculated votes in total: 154,671,870 ----- turnout 62 - 64 %.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

5 months ago

Estimation of missing votes: CA: 2732k - H 1694k Trump 956k o: 82k OR: 230k - H 156k Trump 67k o: 7k NJ: 206k - H 112k Trump 90k o: 4k WA: 184k - H 120k Trump 58.5k o: 5.5k MD: 165k - H 130k Trump 31k o: 4k NY: 156k - H 102k Trump 54k UT: 136k - H 62.5k Trump 71k o: 3.5k AZ: 98k - H 54k Trump 43k o: 1k CO: 94k - H 62k Trump 29.5k o: 2.5k AK: 48k - H 21.8k Trump 25k o: 2k DC: 22k - H 20.3k Trump 1.5k o: 0.2k NV: 14k - H 7.7k Trump 6k o: 0.3k MS: 12k - H 4.4k Trump 7.5k o: 0.1k NE: 10k - H 4.6k Trump 5.3k o: 0.1k

0

mcpetrus

5 months ago

Missing ballots ~4,107,000 ----- Calculated votes in total: 154,671,870 ----- turnout 62 - 64 %.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

5 months ago

Thanks. Can we chat about your results? You seem to be ignoring mil/provisionals which come in all the states. https://www.eac.gov/sites/default/files/document_library/files/2020_EAVS_Report_Final_508c.pdf

0

mcpetrus

5 months ago

Missing ballots ~4,107,000 ----- Calculated final result: GOP +1.31 ----- Detail: GOP 76,937,724 ((( 49.74 % ))) ----- DEM 74,901,640 ((( 48.43 % ))) ----- Other 2,832,506 ((( 1.83 % ))) ----- 154,671,870 votes in total - turnout 62 - 64 %.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Sure, car. I'm sure you do.

0

Intuition

6 months ago

Do we trust rabs or the schizo, I hope I picked the right team.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Is that you car? Man you have so many alts.

1

Intuition

6 months ago

Do we trust rabs or the schizo, I hope I picked the right team.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

the sos page might be generally inaccurate

0

0xB389CC5fff8EE544a236f60478ea53FFBC1FFBA

6 months ago

anyone have any data on provisional ballots in Cali - looks like it was 1M in 2016, 354k in 2020. Source: https://calmatters.org/politics/2020/11/california-cut-provisional-ballots/

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Bunch more in illinois too I think. Do you know what the final other columns is about?

1

ack

6 months ago

New unprocessed ballot report from California. Now 16,064,225, up from 15,950,819.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

lulllllllz

0

ack

6 months ago

New unprocessed ballot report from California. Now 16,064,225, up from 15,950,819.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

I am, but there is a massive wall on that market, so maybe I am missing something huge. For PV to work, the turnout can be less than 155

0

Justifax

6 months ago

If I had to guess, some of the movement is cause by the meme coin crowd which is just trading on vibes with no understanding of what's really happening. I mean, that's cool. I and many others have been trying to educate them, so we're not scamming them. But we do appreciate the free money (hopefully, heh)

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

lulz. Somehow I actually believe that

0

rabs

6 months ago

lol why did the price go UP hahas

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

6 months ago

The scenario where it could not be less than 1.5 is if there are waay less ballots than estimated in the blue states. This is very possible and perhaps why the prices have dipped so hard, because someone has this information. Maybe edison research has some proprietary info that has been leaked.

1

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

6 months ago

https://chatgpt.com/share/6733dee2-a76c-800a-85fc-b1e8b5bc4c49

0

Justifax

6 months ago

It is likely that, when all of the votes are counted, Trump will have received about half of the votes cast, beating Vice President Kamala Harris by about a percentage point. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/11/12/what-numbers-actually-say-about-2024-election/

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Total turnout decline: Around 3 million fewer votes compared to 2020. It's going to be close!

0

Justifax

6 months ago

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/11/12/what-numbers-actually-say-about-2024-election/

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/11/12/what-numbers-actually-say-about-2024-election/

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

No, I'm not really that confident in this market.

0

Justifax

6 months ago

If I had to guess, some of the movement is cause by the meme coin crowd which is just trading on vibes with no understanding of what's really happening. I mean, that's cool. I and many others have been trying to educate them, so we're not scamming them. But we do appreciate the free money (hopefully, heh)

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

6 months ago

But do not copy trade me. I make wild mistakes for real. Could misunderstand what they are saying.

0

Justifax

6 months ago

It is likely that, when all of the votes are counted, Trump will have received about half of the votes cast, beating Vice President Kamala Harris by about a percentage point. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/11/12/what-numbers-actually-say-about-2024-election/

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

6 months ago

Yeh, I see numbers like that too.

0

Justifax

6 months ago

It is likely that, when all of the votes are counted, Trump will have received about half of the votes cast, beating Vice President Kamala Harris by about a percentage point. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/11/12/what-numbers-actually-say-about-2024-election/

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

6 months ago

It is likely that, when all of the votes are counted, Trump will have received about half of the votes cast, beating Vice President Kamala Harris by about a percentage point. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/11/12/what-numbers-actually-say-about-2024-election/

2

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

6 months ago

Oh, did he post an update on his sub? Interesting. I think it will be lower than everyone is expecting because provisionals will blue shift hard.

0

Justifax

6 months ago

fwiw, Nate updated his pov margin to 1.4 7 hours ago https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1856331742392545748

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Every state is legally obligated to count every legal vote.

0

Danilo3400

6 months ago

https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/unprocessed-ballots-status If you look at this, they re currently at 15,95 total votes for Cali, however, many counties (big ones like LA or San Diego) have reported 0 or only very few Vote-By-Mail Ballots Received after Election Day. While other counties with much smaller populations have like 15k+. There is another wave of votes coming.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Nothing, I guess. Why are you asking if the price has gone up? It's not hard to believe others have the same alpha as you.

0

rabs

6 months ago

lol why did the price go UP hahas

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Also, you have a lot of recently flush trump winners and the btc rocketing makes everyone flush, and perhaps careless.

0

Justifax

6 months ago

If I had to guess, some of the movement is cause by the meme coin crowd which is just trading on vibes with no understanding of what's really happening. I mean, that's cool. I and many others have been trying to educate them, so we're not scamming them. But we do appreciate the free money (hopefully, heh)

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

If I had to guess, some of the movement is cause by the meme coin crowd which is just trading on vibes with no understanding of what's really happening. I mean, that's cool. I and many others have been trying to educate them, so we're not scamming them. But we do appreciate the free money (hopefully, heh)

2

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

6 months ago

fwiw, Nate updated his pov margin to 1.4 7 hours ago https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1856331742392545748

1

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

6 months ago

Please do. I am more interested in predicting rather than trading, so this could only help me.

0

Sardinianshepherd

6 months ago

launching the UnlimitedMarketAbuse inverse bet index

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

6 months ago

I make mistakes all the time. Betting off me is very dangerous.

0

Justifax

6 months ago

I made a mistake claiming 1.5 is a lock. Fwiw, I am still confident, but absolutely I could be missing something and copy trading me is a very very bad idea.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

6 months ago

I made a mistake claiming 1.5 is a lock. Fwiw, I am still confident, but absolutely I could be missing something and copy trading me is a very very bad idea.

1

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

6 months ago

We just got a dump showing Utah shifting blue. Curious why the movement, but maybe I'm missing something.

1

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Ahh tell me something I don't know. Everything is available for a price, the question is from who and how much.

0

Justifax

6 months ago

The problem with AP is that they took a much more cautious approach this year. In 2020, they got burned by calling Arizona too fast. Edison Research is crowing about how they are calling races much faster. "NEP vs. AP House Calls 2022: 296 called first by the NEP, 73 by the AP" https://www.edisonresearch.com/solutions/u-s-elections/

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

One fun datapoint. California had a huge provisional ballot problem in 2016, but they 'fixed' it for 2020. This sort of balances out things when looking at late data bumps. https://calmatters.org/politics/2020/11/california-cut-provisional-ballots/

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

You can compare 2020, but you need to adjust for the differences in covid

0

Sardinianshepherd

6 months ago

this was the count in 2020 at election day + 2 weeks, when california had supposly finished the count: 155.8M: http://web.archive.org/web/20201119233032/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Fair warning: You can vibe off this, but don't complain about people who trade. Or you can pay attention and do the county level turnout analysis. If I post BS, please let me know, so I can update my priors. Everything I say I sincerely believe and any corrections is pure alpha for me.

1

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

This is a good thing. Tonnes of profit.

0

SausageRoll

6 months ago

People doing what whales want and moving the price in whatever direction they want 😂

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Don't rely on my betting. I'm not your savior. I do share facts and links however.

0

Justifax

6 months ago

The problem with AP is that they took a much more cautious approach this year. In 2020, they got burned by calling Arizona too fast. Edison Research is crowing about how they are calling races much faster. "NEP vs. AP House Calls 2022: 296 called first by the NEP, 73 by the AP" https://www.edisonresearch.com/solutions/u-s-elections/

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Another thing to keep in mind is that ballot estimation might have become a closely guarded secret so the public numbers might be largely BS. Nate was able to use edison research in 2020 to get a very accurate prediction, but he switched to AP this year. This could be because Edison is hiding their numbers, while AP numbers are easily available. But the AP numbers might be BS....

1

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Yeh, very good question. I can't find their estimates. I've looked. I know Nate used edison in 2020 but AP this year. Maybe Edison is hiding this data?

0

Justifax

6 months ago

The problem with AP is that they took a much more cautious approach this year. In 2020, they got burned by calling Arizona too fast. Edison Research is crowing about how they are calling races much faster. "NEP vs. AP House Calls 2022: 296 called first by the NEP, 73 by the AP" https://www.edisonresearch.com/solutions/u-s-elections/

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

You can't use 2020 as a comparison, as AP is likely adding more buffer to their estimates to reduce calling risk. You could try to use 2022 though.

0

Justifax

6 months ago

The problem with AP is that they took a much more cautious approach this year. In 2020, they got burned by calling Arizona too fast. Edison Research is crowing about how they are calling races much faster. "NEP vs. AP House Calls 2022: 296 called first by the NEP, 73 by the AP" https://www.edisonresearch.com/solutions/u-s-elections/

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

NYT and many others use AP. NBC/CNN use edison research.

0

Justifax

6 months ago

The problem with AP is that they took a much more cautious approach this year. In 2020, they got burned by calling Arizona too fast. Edison Research is crowing about how they are calling races much faster. "NEP vs. AP House Calls 2022: 296 called first by the NEP, 73 by the AP" https://www.edisonresearch.com/solutions/u-s-elections/

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

The problem with AP is that they took a much more cautious approach this year. In 2020, they got burned by calling Arizona too fast. Edison Research is crowing about how they are calling races much faster. "NEP vs. AP House Calls 2022: 296 called first by the NEP, 73 by the AP" https://www.edisonresearch.com/solutions/u-s-elections/

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

NYT is AP. There are two others that I know of, edison research and ddhq. https://www.scrippsnews.com/politics/america-votes/what-is-decision-desk-hq-the-service-that-helps-news-outlets-make-race-calls

0

Astera

6 months ago

Sending this in parts to break it up. Will be a close race, but I see 155+ as the most likely outcome. For my analysis, I'm using tracking data on total vote count for similar time periods that was reported on the NYT site for this year and 2020 that uses the same data reported by AP and using the magic of the Wayback Machine, I can get counts for a whole range of time stamps for most days post election. By choosing a timestamp late in the evening when most of the counting is done for the day, it allows some form of year-to-year time comparison.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

AP total estimate previously 156,963,982.00, and now their estimate is 156,773,286.00

1

Justifax

6 months ago

I don't know if AIBets is the same from PI, but either way looks like we got another scammer. Previously on Nov 11th, AP had estimated MD for 3130487, they now estimate them for 2944476. AP tweaks their estimate practically hourly, but this is a huge change. TBF - MD was very opaque in their reports.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

I don't know if AIBets is the same from PI, but either way looks like we got another scammer. Previously on Nov 11th, AP had estimated MD for 3130487, they now estimate them for 2944476. AP tweaks their estimate practically hourly, but this is a huge change. TBF - MD was very opaque in their reports.

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

wtf?

0

Justifax

6 months ago

AP did a massive 186K reduction for maryland. This didn't impact me as much as I originally thought (whups) as I had already reduced my estimates across the board. But be aware that AP numbers are potentially hugely over estimated and further downgrades are likely.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

AP did a massive 186K reduction for maryland. This didn't impact me as much as I originally thought (whups) as I had already reduced my estimates across the board. But be aware that AP numbers are potentially hugely over estimated and further downgrades are likely.

2

Next Senate Majority Leader?

Justifax

6 months ago

I guess Trump could just threaten to primary all the rino senators if scott doesn't get in.

6

Popular Vote Margin of Victory?

Justifax

6 months ago

0-1 is definitely possible, but not at 3c. My suggest is to buy NO at 2-3 and pick up the 0-1 for free.

2

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

6 months ago

Sorry guys, had to reduce risk. AP completely screwed me over. They just downgraded their estimates in Maryland by 186K

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

If you do buy in, be prepared to hold to Dec 17th as this could come down to the wire.

1

Next Senate Majority Leader?

Justifax

6 months ago

lul - " This is DEFINITELY @JohnCornyn and it is one of the nearly ENDLESS REASONS that EVERY Republican Senator will get primaried if this man is given leadership of the Senate."

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

I paper hand everything at the moment. Hopefully as the account grows I can fire and forget

0

Eridpnc

6 months ago

Bipolar hot cheeto dyed hair temporary tattoo type market

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

6 months ago

you can compare this by just looking at the sos https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/unprocessed-ballots-status versus the ddhq reported numbers for those 4 counties https://decisiondeskhq.com/results/2024/General/California/

0

Justifax

6 months ago

LOL mcpetrus isn't kidding... I just went over the ddhq numbers, they are overestimating all of the red counties and underestimate all of the blue counties, so if anyone is using those numbers to predict mov, be aware of this. These are huge over/under estimates. Likely they did this (probably ap as well) because they are very purple and they didn't want them to be called too early

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

6 months ago

ok maybe not all, but orange and sb are top two over, and la/alameda are top 2 under

0

Justifax

6 months ago

LOL mcpetrus isn't kidding... I just went over the ddhq numbers, they are overestimating all of the red counties and underestimate all of the blue counties, so if anyone is using those numbers to predict mov, be aware of this. These are huge over/under estimates. Likely they did this (probably ap as well) because they are very purple and they didn't want them to be called too early

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

6 months ago

LOL mcpetrus isn't kidding... I just went over the ddhq numbers, they are overestimating all of the red counties and underestimate all of the blue counties, so if anyone is using those numbers to predict mov, be aware of this. These are huge over/under estimates. Likely they did this (probably ap as well) because they are very purple and they didn't want them to be called too early

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Markets should provide utility. I believe markets should exist for everything, but I also believe they should be orderly. The reason markets get banned is because too much fraudulent behavior occurs, and we end up throwing the babies out with the bath water.

0

Justifax

6 months ago

just a heads up, wash trading is very illegal and folks are investigating without a doubt.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

I think there is a lot of stuff happening in that article. There is stuff that can proved 100%, which is probably the sybil nonsense and some other mostly harmless wash trading, and then there is the more illegal stuff. Some of the harmless stuff is illegal btw as it's making it look like there is volume when there is not, but people don't usually care about that as much. It's more when people fake positions or end up in positions that are fake and make it look like there is actual a desire for that price which is the biggest problem.

0

Justifax

6 months ago

just a heads up, wash trading is very illegal and folks are investigating without a doubt.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Yeah, it's very street, and a lot of world changing stuff starts in the street without a doubt.

1

Eridpnc

6 months ago

Bipolar hot cheeto dyed hair temporary tattoo type market

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Car, if you want to be taken seriously, you need to stop pumping BS without evidence. Simply posting vague opinions about what's happening without links and hard data is not just useless, its exactly what pumpers and car wannabes do..

1

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

yep. happens all the time on poly, i'm afraid.

0

Justifax

6 months ago

just a heads up, wash trading is very illegal and folks are investigating without a doubt.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Well, it allows a user to sell without panicking the market

0

Justifax

6 months ago

just a heads up, wash trading is very illegal and folks are investigating without a doubt.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

https://fortune.com/crypto/2024/10/30/polymarket-trump-election-crypto-wash-trading-researchers/

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

just a heads up, wash trading is very illegal and folks are investigating without a doubt.

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Deleted the post as some folks seem to know who 'rabs' is, and speculation seems counterproductive if that's the case.

1

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Maybe we could get some lawyers to help adjudicate. Ah, the look on their faces when we start arguing for both parties! Lulz.

2

Justifax

6 months ago

We could easily end up in this nailbiting world of provisional ballots and their rejection rates. The hanging chad of 2000. Would be pretty hilarious.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Worse, we'd be the only ones in the world that would care. 155 is such an artificial borderline.

1

Justifax

6 months ago

We could easily end up in this nailbiting world of provisional ballots and their rejection rates. The hanging chad of 2000. Would be pretty hilarious.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

We could easily end up in this nailbiting world of provisional ballots and their rejection rates. The hanging chad of 2000. Would be pretty hilarious.

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

If this 155 loses, Nate may need to form a support group with Anne Selzer.

3

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

cert dates, delaware is done, no surprises - https://www.cbsnews.com/news/state-election-results-certification-dates-2024/

3

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Funny reading the troll responses. Ah, the Nate haters.

1

Justifax

6 months ago

Here's nates turnout estimate for Nov 13, 2020 - https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1327277332789415937 ~158. lgtm

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1324152903364304896 Nov 4th, 159M. Zowie.

0

Justifax

6 months ago

Here's nates turnout estimate for Nov 13, 2020 - https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1327277332789415937 ~158. lgtm

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

4.4% margin versus 4.5%. Pretty good. Maybe Nate rigged the vote!

1

Justifax

6 months ago

Here's nates turnout estimate for Nov 13, 2020 - https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1327277332789415937 ~158. lgtm

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Here's nates turnout estimate for Nov 13, 2020 - https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1327277332789415937 ~158. lgtm

2

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

See the estimate below from mcpetrus. It provides a good lower bound but is likely ignoring provisional counts from all the states, eg, ohio with 100K or so.

1

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

All these new users talking about estimates derived from a boneheaded manner. Very weird. Anyways, i would ignore them. Good chance this will come under 155 in the short term and we'll have to wait until december or so for the certs with provisionals.

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

In general, best practice is not trust anyone who doesn't provide evidence. I think in Nate's sub you can see more evidence as to how he generated his data.

1

JDoe

6 months ago

I wouldnt believe a single word coming from the nate silver dude. He was terrible at predicting the turnout in 2020. He predicted Kamala winning by some marging (LOL). He was the one asking for these markets on polymarket and now hes saying we are going above 155M with bunch of certainty. I wouldnt be surprised if that dude is manipulating this market big time and its actually here among us.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Link to his prediction for 2020?

0

JDoe

6 months ago

I wouldnt believe a single word coming from the nate silver dude. He was terrible at predicting the turnout in 2020. He predicted Kamala winning by some marging (LOL). He was the one asking for these markets on polymarket and now hes saying we are going above 155M with bunch of certainty. I wouldnt be surprised if that dude is manipulating this market big time and its actually here among us.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Great, though I'm not sure why you feel the need to tell me that.

0

mep

6 months ago

darn I forgot to account for west virginia having 1k more votes in my analysis

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

NYT is AP. More the 2024-PG, which is edison. I haven't seen an estimate from them.

0

TheGuro

6 months ago

Why anyone would buy at 150-155 is beyond me... This is the current situation in various news sites: WSJ expects 157,001,101 - CNN expects 157,331,423 - BBC expects 157,734,770 - NYT expects 156,957,455

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Hmm, are you just dividing by the percent for each state and totaling it? Not sure that will give good results.

0

TheGuro

6 months ago

Why anyone would buy at 150-155 is beyond me... This is the current situation in various news sites: WSJ expects 157,001,101 - CNN expects 157,331,423 - BBC expects 157,734,770 - NYT expects 156,957,455

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Where do you see these estimates? links? I have something from ddhq and ap, but I can't find edison. Do you have a link on cnn?

0

TheGuro

6 months ago

Why anyone would buy at 150-155 is beyond me... This is the current situation in various news sites: WSJ expects 157,001,101 - CNN expects 157,331,423 - BBC expects 157,734,770 - NYT expects 156,957,455

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

I suspect those numbers to come down, but 2M? That would be a helluva miss for edison or AP, especially given the massive amount of media attention these numbers are getting.

0

TheGuro

6 months ago

Why anyone would buy at 150-155 is beyond me... This is the current situation in various news sites: WSJ expects 157,001,101 - CNN expects 157,331,423 - BBC expects 157,734,770 - NYT expects 156,957,455

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

https://www.eac.gov/sites/default/files/document_library/files/2020_EAVS_Report_Final_508c.pdf there were about 1.3M provisionals in 2020.

0

mep

6 months ago

darn I forgot to account for west virginia having 1k more votes in my analysis

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

ohio's 200k is likely going to be the biggest bump. They did a massive voter purge.

0

mep

6 months ago

darn I forgot to account for west virginia having 1k more votes in my analysis

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

6 months ago

https://www.eac.gov/sites/default/files/document_library/files/EAVSDeepDive_provisionalballot.pdf

1

Justifax

6 months ago

If you look at https://web.archive.org/web/20201123150307/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/index.html for 2016 and 2020 you'll see a .24 and a 0.5 blue shift respectively post dec 1st. These are likely provisionals which are largely caused by voter id issues and skew heavily democratic.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

6 months ago

This means a 2% can become a 1.5% on the basis of this alone.

1

Justifax

6 months ago

If you look at https://web.archive.org/web/20201123150307/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/index.html for 2016 and 2020 you'll see a .24 and a 0.5 blue shift respectively post dec 1st. These are likely provisionals which are largely caused by voter id issues and skew heavily democratic.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

6 months ago

If you look at https://web.archive.org/web/20201123150307/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/index.html for 2016 and 2020 you'll see a .24 and a 0.5 blue shift respectively post dec 1st. These are likely provisionals which are largely caused by voter id issues and skew heavily democratic.

1

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

It's also possible Rabs works for like atlas intel or some super pollster and we're totally fucked.

1

SausageRoll

6 months ago

is it just me or is 160-165 very underpriced aswell lmao, when latest estimate is closer to 160-165 than 150-155

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

It's also possible rabs is making the sophmoric mistake of thinking Poly is free money after all of his wins and is just aping into this for the fun of it. It can be a painful lesson to learn but he has a lot of room to learn, I guess.

1

SausageRoll

6 months ago

is it just me or is 160-165 very underpriced aswell lmao, when latest estimate is closer to 160-165 than 150-155

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

It's possible California was over estimated and they believe that is alpha. How much it was over estimated and how many late ballots came in is the question. It's also worth noting that ballots are punted to other counties. Yolo reported 17% of its turnout as post eday ballots and forwarded by other counties.

0

SausageRoll

6 months ago

is it just me or is 160-165 very underpriced aswell lmao, when latest estimate is closer to 160-165 than 150-155

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Ah, bet on the record turnout market, much easier lift.

0

SausageRoll

6 months ago

is it just me or is 160-165 very underpriced aswell lmao, when latest estimate is closer to 160-165 than 150-155

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

It's worth highlighting mcpetrus low ball estimate. Notice he only has 17 states, and ignore states such as ohio. NEP/AP have like 200K for ohio left to count. According to the pdf below, ohio is notorious for having lots of provisionals. This is likely because of strict voter id laws and the huge purge they did in april. mcpetrus 7h ago Missing ballots ~5,342,000 ----- Calculated votes in total: 153,969,078 ----- turnout: 61.5 to 63.5 %. Full data: Estimation of missing votes: CA: 3353k - H 2078k Trump 1178k o: 97k MD: 350k - H 256k Trump 86k o: 8k OR: 250k - H 160k Trump 82.5k o: 7.5k WA: 250k - H 171k Trump 71.5k o: 7.5k AZ: 220k - H 112k Trump 105.8k o: 2.2k NJ: 206k - H 120k Trump 83k o: 3k UT: 173k - H 70k Trump 98.5k o: 4.5k NY: 156k - H 102k Trump 54k CO: 156k - H 100.2k Trump 53k o: 2.8k AK: 56k - H 24.2k Trump 29.6k o: 2.2k IL: 54k - H 39k Trump 14.3k o: 0.7k NV: 43k - H 22.6k Trump 19.6k o: 0.8k CT: 20k - H 8.8k Trump 11.0k o: 0.2k DC: 18k - H 16.3k Trump 1.5k o: 0.2k MS: 12k - H 4.4k Trump 7.5k o: 0.1k NE: 9k - H 4.6k Trump 4.3k o: 0.1k ME: 8k - H 4.2k Trump 3.6k o: 0.2k NH: 8k - H 4.5k Trump 3.4k o: 0.1k

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Likely the jump post december from 135.8 to 137.1 was all the finnicky ballots. Which matches with the pdf link below.

0

Justifax

6 months ago

https://web.archive.org/web/20170126205643/http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/national.php?year=2016&f=0&off=0&elect=0 The final results were 137,098,443, but even by december 4th it's only showing 135M. Will rabs gamble away his entire pnl trying to suppress the price until then? Stay tuned...

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

https://web.archive.org/web/20170126205643/http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/national.php?year=2016&f=0&off=0&elect=0 The final results were 137,098,443, but even by december 4th it's only showing 135M. Will rabs gamble away his entire pnl trying to suppress the price until then? Stay tuned...

1

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

https://www.wtae.com/article/mccormick-pennsylvania-senate-lawsuit-philadelphia/62852224 For PA, a swing state, all hands on deck to get these cleared up for sure. But like, florida or texas or MA or NY, it's just not an issue. It's not changing any outcome. It'll get done before cert and that's good enough.

0

Justifax

6 months ago

nate has pretty much let the cat out of the bag here, but https://www.eac.gov/sites/default/files/document_library/files/EAVSDeepDive_provisionalballot.pdf

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Except for swing states, nobody really tracks this because nobody really cares. Of course, we care.

0

Justifax

6 months ago

nate has pretty much let the cat out of the bag here, but https://www.eac.gov/sites/default/files/document_library/files/EAVSDeepDive_provisionalballot.pdf

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

1.8% is like 2M or so. Probably not so much this year, at least in CA, but it will still account for a bunch spread across the US in *every* state..

1

Justifax

6 months ago

nate has pretty much let the cat out of the bag here, but https://www.eac.gov/sites/default/files/document_library/files/EAVSDeepDive_provisionalballot.pdf

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Provisionals take a long time to verify, etc. And then you have overseas and military. It's stuff that gets punted to the end of the counting cycle because it's so finnicky.

0

Justifax

6 months ago

nate has pretty much let the cat out of the bag here, but https://www.eac.gov/sites/default/files/document_library/files/EAVSDeepDive_provisionalballot.pdf

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

nate has pretty much let the cat out of the bag here, but https://www.eac.gov/sites/default/files/document_library/files/EAVSDeepDive_provisionalballot.pdf

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

In general, it's a strong lower bound imho, and that is useful for me.

0

Justifax

6 months ago

In general, I think mcpetrus is doing a deep dive into states and ignoring any estimates provided by NEP(Edison Research)/AP. This seems unwise. These orgs have built massive IP on ballot estimation.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

He's left a bunch more. He's been posting over the last many days. The numbers line up with very strong estimates that make sense. His pv margin matches mine almost exactly when I use his turnout numbers. Maybe it's confirmation bias, but I am pretty sure he's doing county level turnout analysis for everything which is why he's missing all the other states.

0

Justifax

6 months ago

In general, I think mcpetrus is doing a deep dive into states and ignoring any estimates provided by NEP(Edison Research)/AP. This seems unwise. These orgs have built massive IP on ballot estimation.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

In general, whenever I use his turnout numbers, I arrive at the same pov margin. It's a useful lower bound because if turnout is higher, than my bets become safer.

0

Justifax

6 months ago

In general, I think mcpetrus is doing a deep dive into states and ignoring any estimates provided by NEP(Edison Research)/AP. This seems unwise. These orgs have built massive IP on ballot estimation.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

I am betting heavily in the pv margin markets. Turnout is pretty important, right.

0

Justifax

6 months ago

In general, I think mcpetrus is doing a deep dive into states and ignoring any estimates provided by NEP(Edison Research)/AP. This seems unwise. These orgs have built massive IP on ballot estimation.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

In general, I think mcpetrus is doing a deep dive into states and ignoring any estimates provided by NEP(Edison Research)/AP. This seems unwise. These orgs have built massive IP on ballot estimation.

1

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

mcpetrus has 350K for MD, which seems a bit on the high side, but probably right.

0

Justifax

6 months ago

The one person who's analysis has me questioning things has been mcpetrus. However, his data seems questionable. On Nov 10th, 2020 MA was off by 125K from its final total. It wasn't until cert they reported the final totals. His numbers seem like a good low bound though.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

MA is the only state I looked at. Obviously he's missing like 30 states or so from his analysis.

0

Justifax

6 months ago

The one person who's analysis has me questioning things has been mcpetrus. However, his data seems questionable. On Nov 10th, 2020 MA was off by 125K from its final total. It wasn't until cert they reported the final totals. His numbers seem like a good low bound though.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

The one person who's analysis has me questioning things has been mcpetrus. However, his data seems questionable. On Nov 10th, 2020 MA was off by 125K from its final total. It wasn't until cert they reported the final totals. His numbers seem like a good low bound though.

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

The way to critique is to point out an error and provide a link backing up your argument. Otherwise you just sound like an idiot.

0

mcpetrus

6 months ago

Missing ballots ~5,342,000 ----- Calculated votes in total: 153,969,078 ----- turnout: 61.5 to 63.5 %. Full data: Estimation of missing votes: CA: 3353k - H 2078k Trump 1178k o: 97k MD: 350k - H 256k Trump 86k o: 8k OR: 250k - H 160k Trump 82.5k o: 7.5k WA: 250k - H 171k Trump 71.5k o: 7.5k AZ: 220k - H 112k Trump 105.8k o: 2.2k NJ: 206k - H 120k Trump 83k o: 3k UT: 173k - H 70k Trump 98.5k o: 4.5k NY: 156k - H 102k Trump 54k CO: 156k - H 100.2k Trump 53k o: 2.8k AK: 56k - H 24.2k Trump 29.6k o: 2.2k IL: 54k - H 39k Trump 14.3k o: 0.7k NV: 43k - H 22.6k Trump 19.6k o: 0.8k CT: 20k - H 8.8k Trump 11.0k o: 0.2k DC: 18k - H 16.3k Trump 1.5k o: 0.2k MS: 12k - H 4.4k Trump 7.5k o: 0.1k NE: 9k - H 4.6k Trump 4.3k o: 0.1k ME: 8k - H 4.2k Trump 3.6k o: 0.2k NH: 8k - H 4.5k Trump 3.4k o: 0.1k

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Must be a car fan boy.

0

mcpetrus

6 months ago

Missing ballots ~5,342,000 ----- Calculated votes in total: 153,969,078 ----- turnout: 61.5 to 63.5 %. Full data: Estimation of missing votes: CA: 3353k - H 2078k Trump 1178k o: 97k MD: 350k - H 256k Trump 86k o: 8k OR: 250k - H 160k Trump 82.5k o: 7.5k WA: 250k - H 171k Trump 71.5k o: 7.5k AZ: 220k - H 112k Trump 105.8k o: 2.2k NJ: 206k - H 120k Trump 83k o: 3k UT: 173k - H 70k Trump 98.5k o: 4.5k NY: 156k - H 102k Trump 54k CO: 156k - H 100.2k Trump 53k o: 2.8k AK: 56k - H 24.2k Trump 29.6k o: 2.2k IL: 54k - H 39k Trump 14.3k o: 0.7k NV: 43k - H 22.6k Trump 19.6k o: 0.8k CT: 20k - H 8.8k Trump 11.0k o: 0.2k DC: 18k - H 16.3k Trump 1.5k o: 0.2k MS: 12k - H 4.4k Trump 7.5k o: 0.1k NE: 9k - H 4.6k Trump 4.3k o: 0.1k ME: 8k - H 4.2k Trump 3.6k o: 0.2k NH: 8k - H 4.5k Trump 3.4k o: 0.1k

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

It's like your pumping is bad both ways.

0

mcpetrus

6 months ago

Missing ballots ~5,342,000 ----- Calculated votes in total: 153,969,078 ----- turnout: 61.5 to 63.5 %. Full data: Estimation of missing votes: CA: 3353k - H 2078k Trump 1178k o: 97k MD: 350k - H 256k Trump 86k o: 8k OR: 250k - H 160k Trump 82.5k o: 7.5k WA: 250k - H 171k Trump 71.5k o: 7.5k AZ: 220k - H 112k Trump 105.8k o: 2.2k NJ: 206k - H 120k Trump 83k o: 3k UT: 173k - H 70k Trump 98.5k o: 4.5k NY: 156k - H 102k Trump 54k CO: 156k - H 100.2k Trump 53k o: 2.8k AK: 56k - H 24.2k Trump 29.6k o: 2.2k IL: 54k - H 39k Trump 14.3k o: 0.7k NV: 43k - H 22.6k Trump 19.6k o: 0.8k CT: 20k - H 8.8k Trump 11.0k o: 0.2k DC: 18k - H 16.3k Trump 1.5k o: 0.2k MS: 12k - H 4.4k Trump 7.5k o: 0.1k NE: 9k - H 4.6k Trump 4.3k o: 0.1k ME: 8k - H 4.2k Trump 3.6k o: 0.2k NH: 8k - H 4.5k Trump 3.4k o: 0.1k

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

lol. You really have bad takes, you know. mcpetrus has some of the best analysis here.

0

mcpetrus

6 months ago

Missing ballots ~5,342,000 ----- Calculated votes in total: 153,969,078 ----- turnout: 61.5 to 63.5 %. Full data: Estimation of missing votes: CA: 3353k - H 2078k Trump 1178k o: 97k MD: 350k - H 256k Trump 86k o: 8k OR: 250k - H 160k Trump 82.5k o: 7.5k WA: 250k - H 171k Trump 71.5k o: 7.5k AZ: 220k - H 112k Trump 105.8k o: 2.2k NJ: 206k - H 120k Trump 83k o: 3k UT: 173k - H 70k Trump 98.5k o: 4.5k NY: 156k - H 102k Trump 54k CO: 156k - H 100.2k Trump 53k o: 2.8k AK: 56k - H 24.2k Trump 29.6k o: 2.2k IL: 54k - H 39k Trump 14.3k o: 0.7k NV: 43k - H 22.6k Trump 19.6k o: 0.8k CT: 20k - H 8.8k Trump 11.0k o: 0.2k DC: 18k - H 16.3k Trump 1.5k o: 0.2k MS: 12k - H 4.4k Trump 7.5k o: 0.1k NE: 9k - H 4.6k Trump 4.3k o: 0.1k ME: 8k - H 4.2k Trump 3.6k o: 0.2k NH: 8k - H 4.5k Trump 3.4k o: 0.1k

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

AP now estimating 156.97M

1

Justifax

6 months ago

Over the pass couple of days, here are the adjustments ap has made _cali is now down to 17.1M) - -1068289 California -40626 Arizona -24691 Colorado -22431 Oregon -1038 Pennsylvania -157 North Dakota 103 South Dakota 1528 New Mexico 4485 Utah 4607 Nevada 34152 Washington 35201 Mississippi

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Over the pass couple of days, here are the adjustments ap has made _cali is now down to 17.1M) - -1068289 California -40626 Arizona -24691 Colorado -22431 Oregon -1038 Pennsylvania -157 North Dakota 103 South Dakota 1528 New Mexico 4485 Utah 4607 Nevada 34152 Washington 35201 Mississippi

1

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

I guess there is a political agenda with turnout. By suppressing it, you minimize the influence of cali and other vbm states.

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

6 months ago

lulz arizona

1

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

https://www.fec.gov/resources/cms-content/documents/federalelections2020.pdf "Write-in, misc" for the real randos.

0

Justifax

6 months ago

"other" accounted for 649,552 in 2020. I don't know if it's bullshit, but if estimates are missing this, could be in for a shock.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Ah, ok.

0

Justifax

6 months ago

"other" accounted for 649,552 in 2020. I don't know if it's bullshit, but if estimates are missing this, could be in for a shock.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Taking min(estimates) is probably going to lose you a lot of money.

0

Justifax

6 months ago

I didn't do a full analysis here, but NEP has higher estimates than AP for New Jersey New York Washington Illinois Alaska Mississippi Utah

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

-Mississippi

0

Justifax

6 months ago

I didn't do a full analysis here, but NEP has higher estimates than AP for New Jersey New York Washington Illinois Alaska Mississippi Utah

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

I didn't do a full analysis here, but NEP has higher estimates than AP for New Jersey New York Washington Illinois Alaska Mississippi Utah

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

There are 3144 counties in the US. Anyone of them could end up reprising their numbers before cert. Lulz.

1

Justifax

6 months ago

This market could get so super funny if we get close to 155M and everyone is chasing rumors of ballot caches.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

This market could get so super funny if we get close to 155M and everyone is chasing rumors of ballot caches.

1

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

If you're going to lie about this, I think it's pretty clear you're playing a game.

0

Justifax

6 months ago

"other" accounted for 649,552 in 2020. I don't know if it's bullshit, but if estimates are missing this, could be in for a shock.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Yeh, you deleted the post. You said someone was missing write-ins.

0

Justifax

6 months ago

"other" accounted for 649,552 in 2020. I don't know if it's bullshit, but if estimates are missing this, could be in for a shock.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

You deleted your post, but you said the lab was missing write-ins? Do you know how many write-ins were in 2020?

0

Justifax

6 months ago

"other" accounted for 649,552 in 2020. I don't know if it's bullshit, but if estimates are missing this, could be in for a shock.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

"other" accounted for 649,552 in 2020. I don't know if it's bullshit, but if estimates are missing this, could be in for a shock.

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Other than Arizona, there are no swing states in the top 20 of states with votes left. Arizona count looks pretty accurate as they've been doing VBM for quite awhile.

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

I agree in swing states vote counting was probably sped up this year. But nobody cares about the last few millions votes in non pivotal states.

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Yes, maryland has 2 days a well. 10 days seemed highly improbable.

0

Justifax

6 months ago

big, if true: new york had a stupid law in the year everyone was doing mail in to only count 10 days after the election.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Fact check, false. It was 3 days.

0

Justifax

6 months ago

big, if true: new york had a stupid law in the year everyone was doing mail in to only count 10 days after the election.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

big, if true: new york had a stupid law in the year everyone was doing mail in to only count 10 days after the election.

1

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

2016 had very little mail in ballots compared to this year. And yet, extrapolating out we get to 158. Curious.

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

If you extrapolate out by 5 days after the election using 2020 like someone did below for 2016, we get to 158M. Huh. Same thing as 2020. I wonder if there is a pattern here..

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

I don't think anyone really knows where it's going to hit, which is why there isn't much liquidity.

0

peasant

6 months ago

Much talk, much little 150-155 yes liquidity.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Props to mona.lisa. Whatever game they are playing, at least it's not an insipid one.

1

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

At Nov 10th in 2020, the pop vote was 149.5M, 0.945 of eventual. Extrapolating to current, we should be around 157m by the end. Also, 2020 the election was on nov 3rd.

2

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Yolo county, which had a turnout of 92K in 2020, has a category called "Vote-by-mail ballots received after Election Day thru November 12 /ballots forwarded by other counties" in their report. It has 12k Which is about 15% of their turnout in 2020. https://ace.yolocounty.gov/328/Estimated-Number-of-Unprocessed-Ballots Without the statewide sos report, we don't have a lot of visibility.

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Source? I pulled it out my ass.

1

Justifax

6 months ago

The estimate for PA is already under by 50K. And there is about 50K more left to count, going by the article posted below and what they've updated in the meantime. So that's another 100K to add to the florida lab. (600k, so far).

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

The estimate for PA is already under by 50K. And there is about 50K more left to count, going by the article posted below and what they've updated in the meantime. So that's another 100K to add to the florida lab. (600k, so far).

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

If indeed it is record turnout like the article says it is (important senate race), than the lab estimate of 2.5M (which is already below current totals) is likely off by 500K or so. That one state alone brings the lab table over 155.

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

The final day of early voting saw the largest turnout across the state.

0

Justifax

6 months ago

It will be a while before we know the overall voter turnout, but in Maryland, the numbers are already trending higher than the 2020 election when about 75% of eligible voters submitted their ballots. huh https://www.cbsnews.com/baltimore/news/maryland-voters-polls-election-day-early-voting/

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

It will be a while before we know the overall voter turnout, but in Maryland, the numbers are already trending higher than the 2020 election when about 75% of eligible voters submitted their ballots. huh https://www.cbsnews.com/baltimore/news/maryland-voters-polls-election-day-early-voting/

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

https://www.ntd.com/pennsylvania-still-working-on-100000-ballots-as-casey-refuses-to-concede-senate-race_1027631.html

0

Justifax

6 months ago

Going by the election lab numbers and including for some obvious mistakes such as in MD and PA, there estimate is above 155.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Unlike you, I can provide sources. https://www.baltimoresun.com/2024/11/06/hundreds-of-thousands-of-mail-in-ballots-left-to-count-in-maryland/

0

Justifax

6 months ago

Going by the election lab numbers and including for some obvious mistakes such as in MD and PA, there estimate is above 155.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Going by the election lab numbers and including for some obvious mistakes such as in MD and PA, there estimate is above 155.

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

I think it's fair to say the estimates provided included guesses at how many incoming there would be. My guess is that we'll see incoming ballots, though perhaps not up to the estimated amounts. Yes, the numbers will come down, but maybe only half way. Hard to say exactly just yet until the report comes out.

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Well, in my statistics course we were supposed to use actual statistics rather than just make them up.

0

Justifax

6 months ago

It's worth noting the total ballot counts increased by 200K on the second sos report.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

And no, I didn't pull that out my ass - https://web.archive.org/web/20240000000000*/https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/unprocessed-ballots-status

0

Justifax

6 months ago

It's worth noting the total ballot counts increased by 200K on the second sos report.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

It's worth noting the total ballot counts increased by 200K on the second sos report.

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Source? "I pulled it out of my ass." Until we see sos numbers, we don't know what's going on. It's possible the counties don't know how to count.

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Source? "I made it up."

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

In washington there is a grace period of 20 das, they got 100K votes in 2020 during that time, or 2.4%. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/dec/21/us-election-ballot-deadlines-impact Grace period is shorter in Cali, but I can see about 100K votes

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

I'm not betting in this market. Not sure if my estimates are correct. Too many states are very opaque about their unprocessed ballot numbers.

0

Justifax

6 months ago

Here's a table of all mail states. Fittingly, they're the ones with the most outstanding ballots. https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns/table-18-states-with-all-mail-elections

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Lulz, at what point did I say I was sure about his forecasting? I just think maybe calling him a complete retard seems a bit funny considering.

0

Justifax

6 months ago

Man, guy spends his entire life on election forecasting and has multiple nyt bestseller books, makes a forecast about turnout, and gets called a complete retard. Tough crowd.

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

6 months ago

lulz utah

1

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Seriously people, turnout is such an apolitical number. There's nobody with an agenda here. 155 versus 157. Nobody cares. It's like getting pissed at someone for saying the sky is a lighter shade of blue this morning.

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Man, guy spends his entire life on election forecasting and has multiple nyt bestseller books, makes a forecast about turnout, and gets called a complete retard. Tough crowd.

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Here's my current estimates. https://imgur.com/a/T4mroOE ignore wyoming, it's a captain obvious typo which i fixed locally.

0

Justifax

6 months ago

Here's a table of all mail states. Fittingly, they're the ones with the most outstanding ballots. https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns/table-18-states-with-all-mail-elections

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Here's a table of all mail states. Fittingly, they're the ones with the most outstanding ballots. https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns/table-18-states-with-all-mail-elections

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

I think what people are failing to realize that with the spread of VBM, there's a lot of straggler vote counting..

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

6 months ago

Harris won alemeda +50 ... https://www.berkeleyside.org/2024/11/08/alameda-county-election-results-slow-registrar Joe won it +61 with all ballots counted.

1

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

6 months ago

sigh

0

Justifax

6 months ago

We need lower brackets :(

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

other than the obvious typo, do you see any issues?

0

Justifax

6 months ago

ok here is my latest estimates, https://imgur.com/a/T4mroOE .. i was pretty conservative, and generously weighted the florida labs heavily. I had to fix a bunch though because they had negative votes left! I just made the estimates equal current for those. .

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

ah it was a typo, i've already fixed it.

0

Justifax

6 months ago

ok here is my latest estimates, https://imgur.com/a/T4mroOE .. i was pretty conservative, and generously weighted the florida labs heavily. I had to fix a bunch though because they had negative votes left! I just made the estimates equal current for those. .

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

ok here is my latest estimates, https://imgur.com/a/T4mroOE .. i was pretty conservative, and generously weighted the florida labs heavily. I had to fix a bunch though because they had negative votes left! I just made the estimates equal current for those. .

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

6 months ago

We need lower brackets :(

0

Who will be inaugurated as President?

Justifax

6 months ago

"Hey guys, I'm getting bored of running Polymarket. Let's go out in a blaze of glory. Can you come up with an idea for a market that will get us blacklisted from USDC and our hostname redirected?"

1

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Facts: Some forecasters have predicted 158M, 152M and 154M at different times for this election.

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Source? "It came to me in a dream."

0

Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?

Justifax

6 months ago

Guys, this time Biden means business. Qatar better do what he says, or else.

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

6 months ago

Yeh, when I use your turnout numbers I get the same margin. Cool when stuff like that happens.

1

mcpetrus

6 months ago

Today's calculation with approximately 6,192,000 ballots still missing: ---GOP +1.43 --- Trump 76,966,000 (((49.93%))) --- Harris 74,750,000 (((48.50%))) --- Other 2,414,000 (((1.57 %))) --- Turnout: 62.72%

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

lulz. How long before they realize what they are missing and delete yet another post.

1

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Lotta trades on that breaking news.

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

You're forgetting that the population has increased by 7M.

0

mona.lisa

6 months ago

It's basically a coin flip at this point. To be over 155, there would need to be 98%+ turnout of the 2020 election.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

I'm waiting for sos to update, than I will tell you.

0

Justifax

6 months ago

I agree, don't take my advice. Especially since I haven't given any. But do look into the links and pay attention to facts rather than very careless pumping.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

I am aware! They keep on flipping around!

0

Justifax

6 months ago

I agree, don't take my advice. Especially since I haven't given any. But do look into the links and pay attention to facts rather than very careless pumping.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

When you start arguing the other side, I'll believe it's not pumping.

0

Justifax

6 months ago

I agree, don't take my advice. Especially since I haven't given any. But do look into the links and pay attention to facts rather than very careless pumping.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

I agree, don't take my advice. Especially since I haven't given any. But do look into the links and pay attention to facts rather than very careless pumping.

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Admittedly, the joke was in poor taste, and for that I apologize. Sometimes these convos get a little heated

0

Justifax

6 months ago

I can't reply to mona.lisa because she deletes every single post. It was a joke. And their estimate was 152 at the time. They have since revised upwards by 2M.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

I can't reply to mona.lisa because she deletes every single post. It was a joke. And their estimate was 152 at the time. They have since revised upwards by 2M.

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Try reading. I said it is 1M ahead of the current report. We'll find out more soon, though.

0

Justifax

6 months ago

AP is reporting 6.2M, and Sos is reporting 4.9M+.12 for 5.1M. So AP is only 1M ahead of the current report. We'll find out more very soon, though.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

MD,like CA, are tricky because they allow ballots to arrive post election as long as they are postmarked. These could be high, cautious estimates by AP not wanting to call races too early.

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

https://apps.arizona.vote/electioninfo/BPS/47/0 AZ is reporting 438K, which is close enough to AP

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

AP is reporting 6.2M, and Sos is reporting 4.9M+.12 for 5.1M. So AP is only 1M ahead of the current report. We'll find out more very soon, though.

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Cali is a bit high, but it's unclear on the others.

0

Justifax

6 months ago

Here are the states greater than 50k, in sorted order by remaining ballots GA 51255,NC 55884,MI 56032,OH 56997,NV 65250,AK 78450,FL 89922,IL 98136,PA 101931,TX 114428,CO 214920,NY 257793,UT 262782,NJ 275341,WA 368820,OR 377249,MD 442398,AZ 442923,CA 6220890

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Here's all of them WY 2771,VT 3646,ND 3679,RI 4100,SD 4243,DE 5121,HI 5207,MT 5852,WV 7602,NM 7617,ID 9136,KS 10701,AR 11752,OK 14189,IA 14391,ME 15397,LA 17140,NE 18209,NH 20008,AL 20857,KY 20897,SC 21280,DC 24536,MS 25842,IN 29433,MO 29668,TN 30912,MN 32733,WI 34345,CT 34816,MA 34867,VA 48481,GA 51255,NC 55884,MI 56032,OH 56997,NV 65250,AK 78450,FL 89922,IL 98136,PA 101931,TX 114428,CO 214920,NY 257793,UT 262782,NJ 275341,WA 368820,OR 377249,MD 442398,AZ 442923,CA 6220890,

0

Justifax

6 months ago

Here are the states greater than 50k, in sorted order by remaining ballots GA 51255,NC 55884,MI 56032,OH 56997,NV 65250,AK 78450,FL 89922,IL 98136,PA 101931,TX 114428,CO 214920,NY 257793,UT 262782,NJ 275341,WA 368820,OR 377249,MD 442398,AZ 442923,CA 6220890

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

These are AP numbers

0

Justifax

6 months ago

Here are the states greater than 50k, in sorted order by remaining ballots GA 51255,NC 55884,MI 56032,OH 56997,NV 65250,AK 78450,FL 89922,IL 98136,PA 101931,TX 114428,CO 214920,NY 257793,UT 262782,NJ 275341,WA 368820,OR 377249,MD 442398,AZ 442923,CA 6220890

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Here are the states greater than 50k, in sorted order by remaining ballots GA 51255,NC 55884,MI 56032,OH 56997,NV 65250,AK 78450,FL 89922,IL 98136,PA 101931,TX 114428,CO 214920,NY 257793,UT 262782,NJ 275341,WA 368820,OR 377249,MD 442398,AZ 442923,CA 6220890

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

When you start arguing the pros and cons, and not just one side, than I'll believe you're not just shilling.

0

Justifax

6 months ago

I like to argue that AP is on the high side, and that people should be aware of that. This is literally how you can tell I'm not pumping.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

I fully acknowledge that AP is on the high side of things. I've mentioned their high cali numbers about 10 times at this point..

0

Justifax

6 months ago

I like to argue that AP is on the high side, and that people should be aware of that. This is literally how you can tell I'm not pumping.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

I like to argue that AP is on the high side, and that people should be aware of that. This is literally how you can tell I'm not pumping.

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Well, try arguing the other side for awhile, you'll get a better sense.

0

Justifax

6 months ago

You'll keep hearing this ignorance/lie about lower turnout across the board. It's false. For example, Nevada has had higher turnout and they're not done counting. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election_in_Nevada https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_Nevada Some people will say absolutely anything they can, but they do reveal themselves for who they truly are, which helps.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Anyways, back to reality. I think the reason AP is on the high side is just caution after the Arizona call in 2020. It makes sense. The only question is how much higher. I wonder how far they came down in 2022.

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

It's notable that Nevada is another spam mail state like California and MD.

0

Justifax

6 months ago

You'll keep hearing this ignorance/lie about lower turnout across the board. It's false. For example, Nevada has had higher turnout and they're not done counting. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election_in_Nevada https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_Nevada Some people will say absolutely anything they can, but they do reveal themselves for who they truly are, which helps.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

You'll keep hearing this ignorance/lie about lower turnout across the board. It's false. For example, Nevada has had higher turnout and they're not done counting. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election_in_Nevada https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_Nevada Some people will say absolutely anything they can, but they do reveal themselves for who they truly are, which helps.

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Also NY, NJ are big too.

0

plymarket-user

6 months ago

It really come down to the question if CA is 75% complete in counting or 66%. Depending on the source, I estimate 154.3m - 156.5m. This is a fun one to watch!

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

We've been over this already. There MD numbers are provably wrong by like 300k.

0

plymarket-user

6 months ago

It really come down to the question if CA is 75% complete in counting or 66%. Depending on the source, I estimate 154.3m - 156.5m. This is a fun one to watch!

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

He's not. AP already provides that number. It's 158M

0

Justifax

6 months ago

If Nate was soley relying on AP numbers, he would just report AP, which is 158M.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

If Nate was soley relying on AP numbers, he would just report AP, which is 158M.

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Not exactly, no. For example, how much is left in Arizona, MD, PA, WA, OR

0

plymarket-user

6 months ago

It really come down to the question if CA is 75% complete in counting or 66%. Depending on the source, I estimate 154.3m - 156.5m. This is a fun one to watch!

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

It's a big deal, not just for this market, but for all the ongoing races in California. If there are 18.3M votes, then they can't call it.

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

That said, the high AP numbers for cali are curious. It's really the only one they've stretched on, afaict. They are pretty detailed and have massive investments in this field. They do not benefit from being wrong. So why the high numbers? I think it might have something to do with their rush to call Arizona in 2020. Hard to say.

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

They will say absolutely anything in order to get their quick profit and move onto the next. This is very very illegal and hopefully someone goes to jail at some point so that it stops.

0

Justifax

6 months ago

Probably about 95% of the people here can spot the pumpers of course, but for the 5% .. note there are people who buy low and put in sell limit orders hoping to pump endlessly. Car is famous for it, but got trashed a lot and perhaps is now using an alt.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Probably about 95% of the people here can spot the pumpers of course, but for the 5% .. note there are people who buy low and put in sell limit orders hoping to pump endlessly. Car is famous for it, but got trashed a lot and perhaps is now using an alt.

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

What was it before? lab has gone from 14.5 to 16.25, ddhq is 16.8, and ap is 18.3, neither have budged (though they have on others)

0

mona.lisa

6 months ago

National Election Pool now says there will be ~16.1 million votes in CA. If this is true, it would be ~154

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

California is all that really matters here. 11.5M have already been counted, and we only care about rejection on the final 5.4M. Which will be around 50-60K

0

thomas2006

6 months ago

As much as 1% of mail-in ballots are rejected nation wide

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Yep, this is a thing. Around 50K or so will get rejected in Cali alone.

0

thomas2006

6 months ago

As much as 1% of mail-in ballots are rejected nation wide

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

If I had to guess, I think the numbers 16.4M will become 16.5M or larger after all the updates today. If that's the case, than I 155+ will likely get hit and I may buy more NO at these prices. If the number declines, I will sell. If the number is steady, just hold

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Yes, if the numbers decrease in an hour or so, you're right. If the numbers increase, however...

0

Justifax

6 months ago

For LA, I found this. https://www.dailynews.com/2024/11/08/2024-election-results-fridays-update-for-la-countys-closest-congress-state-senate-assembly-seats/ The article says there are 759K left, but the sos site says 956,421

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Yes, which is why I shared this fact. See how this works?

0

Justifax

6 months ago

For LA, I found this. https://www.dailynews.com/2024/11/08/2024-election-results-fridays-update-for-la-countys-closest-congress-state-senate-assembly-seats/ The article says there are 759K left, but the sos site says 956,421

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Well, presumably there is a journalist who is talking directly to the registrar rather than just going off the website. It's a datapoint. You're welcome to share any links you might have.

0

Justifax

6 months ago

For LA, I found this. https://www.dailynews.com/2024/11/08/2024-election-results-fridays-update-for-la-countys-closest-congress-state-senate-assembly-seats/ The article says there are 759K left, but the sos site says 956,421

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Yes, I see they have changed their estimation from 14.5 to 16.25. Not the 16.4 the sos site is saying, but it's a good start.

0

Justifax

6 months ago

Does anyone want to have a fact based conversation on https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/unprocessed-ballots-status This is really the number that matters. It has increased from 16.2M to 16.4M (total counted + unprocessed) and there should be another update tonight. Any guesses what it will show?

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

For LA, I found this. https://www.dailynews.com/2024/11/08/2024-election-results-fridays-update-for-la-countys-closest-congress-state-senate-assembly-seats/ The article says there are 759K left, but the sos site says 956,421

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Wait, what? It doesn't matter if it's accurate?

0

Justifax

6 months ago

Does anyone want to have a fact based conversation on https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/unprocessed-ballots-status This is really the number that matters. It has increased from 16.2M to 16.4M (total counted + unprocessed) and there should be another update tonight. Any guesses what it will show?

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Does anyone want to have a fact based conversation on https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/unprocessed-ballots-status This is really the number that matters. It has increased from 16.2M to 16.4M (total counted + unprocessed) and there should be another update tonight. Any guesses what it will show?

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

How many times... sigh. I do not know what the final numbers will be. If I did, I'd bet a lot of money. I just think we should discuss it on a fact based manner.

0

Justifax

6 months ago

Sigh. Nate is chief analyst on the nyt needle team. Yes, that needle. The turnout numbers was their last estimate before they turned it off as Trump had won.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Sigh. Nate is chief analyst on the nyt needle team. Yes, that needle. The turnout numbers was their last estimate before they turned it off as Trump had won.

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

I agree, AP's cali estimate is high by about 1.5M. I'm not sure what's going on. Very curious to find out.

0

Justifax

6 months ago

If I knew what the totals were going to be, I'd bet large here. I really don't. I do know enough to point out individual facts and try not to purposely spread disinfo.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

If I knew what the totals were going to be, I'd bet large here. I really don't. I do know enough to point out individual facts and try not to purposely spread disinfo.

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

You clearly can't read. I said 'certified' how many times now?

0

Justifax

6 months ago

Again, the numbers are based on certified votes. There are no 'errors in state level certified votes' .. that would be a scandal beyond belief.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

You are welcome to make the claim that unofficial estimates can change, but please think before saying certified data is wrong.

0

Justifax

6 months ago

Again, the numbers are based on certified votes. There are no 'errors in state level certified votes' .. that would be a scandal beyond belief.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

The numbers are 'certified' for a reason.

0

Justifax

6 months ago

Again, the numbers are based on certified votes. There are no 'errors in state level certified votes' .. that would be a scandal beyond belief.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Again, the numbers are based on certified votes. There are no 'errors in state level certified votes' .. that would be a scandal beyond belief.

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

The outcome is NOT based on 'estimates'. It's based on "certified vote totals". Please read the rules.

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

I follow AP quite a bit. They tweak their individual state estimates every 15 minutes or so, but the total estimate has not budged from ~158M. AP, DDHQ, and NateCohn all estimate around 157m. here's ap - https://imgur.com/a/VEmOiRU, and here's ddhq - https://imgur.com/a/caQkaMF here's nate's tweet https://x.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1854550651055063453 The cali estimate may come down at a future point, but so far cali is approach it rather than the other way around.

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Folks, there is already enough disinfo spreading about the election. The biggest complaint people have about prediction markets is they encourage such behaviour. Please do not engage in it.

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

What is........ market manipulation for 500?

0

Justifax

6 months ago

It can take many forms, such as spreading false or misleading information, manipulating prices or trading volumes, or using unfair or fraudulent tactics to manipulate market conditions. It is illegal in most countries and can result in significant fines and penalties.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

It can take many forms, such as spreading false or misleading information, manipulating prices or trading volumes, or using unfair or fraudulent tactics to manipulate market conditions. It is illegal in most countries and can result in significant fines and penalties.

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

That's for PA.

0

Justifax

6 months ago

ok I should stop hassling the lab. but seriously, his numbers are still low for MD. Balmore sun is reporting 100s of thousands of ballots yet to be counted, and his numbers are still underwater. His PA number is at least below the 100K left: "https://www.ntd.com/pennsylvania-still-working-on-100000-ballots-as-casey-refuses-to-concede-senate-race_1027631.html"

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

300k sounds like 100s of thousands to me. https://www.baltimoresun.com/2024/11/06/hundreds-of-thousands-of-mail-in-ballots-left-to-count-in-maryland/

0

Justifax

6 months ago

ok I should stop hassling the lab. but seriously, his numbers are still low for MD. Balmore sun is reporting 100s of thousands of ballots yet to be counted, and his numbers are still underwater. His PA number is at least below the 100K left: "https://www.ntd.com/pennsylvania-still-working-on-100000-ballots-as-casey-refuses-to-concede-senate-race_1027631.html"

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

ok I should stop hassling the lab. but seriously, his numbers are still low for MD. Balmore sun is reporting 100s of thousands of ballots yet to be counted, and his numbers are still underwater. His PA number is at least below the 100K left: "https://www.ntd.com/pennsylvania-still-working-on-100000-ballots-as-casey-refuses-to-concede-senate-race_1027631.html"

0

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

6 months ago

You're right, it was much closer to their prediction of +3.1, just like the PV will be closer to +1.3 :D

0

Justifax

6 months ago

btw, atlas intel already revealed the PV https://x.com/atlas_intel/status/1854968840616026541 :D

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Anyways, I grabbed some no. Gl!

1

Justifax

6 months ago

Maybe I'm just bitter because I paper handed like 15K shares of 150 to 155.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Maybe I'm just bitter because I paper handed like 15K shares of 150 to 155.

1

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

6 months ago

btw, atlas intel already revealed the PV https://x.com/atlas_intel/status/1854968840616026541 :D

1

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

AP provides estimates if you know where to look. It's how they calculate the % counted that they display..

0

Justifax

6 months ago

AP, DDHQ, and NateCohn all estimate around 157m. here's ap - https://imgur.com/a/VEmOiRU, and here's ddhq - https://imgur.com/a/caQkaMF here's nate's tweet https://x.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1854550651055063453

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Yes, I already said that twice above. See my top post though about increasing estimates from the sos page.

0

Justifax

6 months ago

AP, DDHQ, and NateCohn all estimate around 157m. here's ap - https://imgur.com/a/VEmOiRU, and here's ddhq - https://imgur.com/a/caQkaMF here's nate's tweet https://x.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1854550651055063453

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Again - not betting in this market.

0

Justifax

6 months ago

AP, DDHQ, and NateCohn all estimate around 157m. here's ap - https://imgur.com/a/VEmOiRU, and here's ddhq - https://imgur.com/a/caQkaMF here's nate's tweet https://x.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1854550651055063453

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

That's just for California. Some other states have the post mark rule as well for late mail ins.

0

Justifax

6 months ago

One thing I'd like to point out the total counted + ballots to process is *increasing* over time. Eg, check out web archive - https://web.archive.org/web/20241108160628/https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/unprocessed-ballots-status First day it was 16,201,408 and currently it is 16.4M, a 200K increase. What will it be this evening, any guesses?

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

One thing I'd like to point out the total counted + ballots to process is *increasing* over time. Eg, check out web archive - https://web.archive.org/web/20241108160628/https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/unprocessed-ballots-status First day it was 16,201,408 and currently it is 16.4M, a 200K increase. What will it be this evening, any guesses?

0

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

That said, the california numbers do seem a bit high. But post mark ballots are still incoming, so I guess we'll see.

0

Justifax

6 months ago

AP, DDHQ, and NateCohn all estimate around 157m. here's ap - https://imgur.com/a/VEmOiRU, and here's ddhq - https://imgur.com/a/caQkaMF here's nate's tweet https://x.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1854550651055063453

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

You realize right that AP is considered to be the authoritative syndication source used by pretty much every outlet - including the NYT.

0

Justifax

6 months ago

AP, DDHQ, and NateCohn all estimate around 157m. here's ap - https://imgur.com/a/VEmOiRU, and here's ddhq - https://imgur.com/a/caQkaMF here's nate's tweet https://x.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1854550651055063453

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Well, I'm not a chief political analyst for the NY Times. I'm also not betting in this market.

0

Justifax

6 months ago

AP, DDHQ, and NateCohn all estimate around 157m. here's ap - https://imgur.com/a/VEmOiRU, and here's ddhq - https://imgur.com/a/caQkaMF here's nate's tweet https://x.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1854550651055063453

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

I like AP the best as DDHQ weirdly has estimates below total votes that it reports. They also frequently update their estimates. My one issue is that it's california est seems a bit high.

0

Justifax

6 months ago

AP, DDHQ, and NateCohn all estimate around 157m. here's ap - https://imgur.com/a/VEmOiRU, and here's ddhq - https://imgur.com/a/caQkaMF here's nate's tweet https://x.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1854550651055063453

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

AP, DDHQ, and NateCohn all estimate around 157m. here's ap - https://imgur.com/a/VEmOiRU, and here's ddhq - https://imgur.com/a/caQkaMF here's nate's tweet https://x.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1854550651055063453

1

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

6 months ago

https://electionlab.mit.edu/sites/default/files/2021-04/Blue-Shift-in-2020-Election.pdf

0

vigna.eth

6 months ago

Market seems underpriced for over 1.75 and overpriced for under 1.5 See state & county analysis with mailin ballot model below. Feel free to comment here or on the sheet itself! PSA: Obviously biased, see my positions https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15Gcc_XXRCK9ukw1wQ1qNnh5R_zbSb381

Trump declassifies JFK files?

Justifax

6 months ago

We're talking about the guy that launched a crypto token during his campaign. I mean, good luck predicting what he will do.

7

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

6 months ago

https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/unprocessed-ballots-status is reporting like 5.2M and ballots are still coming in.

0

mcpetrus

6 months ago

Estimation of missing votes: CA: 4,270k votes - Harris 2.520k to Trump 1.750k AZ: 535k votes - Harris 280k to Trump 255k MD: 400k votes - Harris 300k to Trump 100k WA: 345k votes - Harris 225k to Trump 120k OR: 300k votes - Harris 210k to Trump 90k NJ: 250k votes - Harris 160k to Trump 90k UT: 250k votes - Harris 115k to Trump 135k CO: 180k votes - Harris 115k to Trump 65k NY: 130k votes - Harris 90k to Trump 40k PA: 130k votes - Harris 75k to Trump 55k 8 other States with missing votes combined: 275k votes - Harris 168k to Trump 107k

Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?

Justifax

6 months ago

Yeah, there are overseas, military, etc you might be missing.

0

mcpetrus

6 months ago

Estimation of missing votes: CA: 4,270k votes - Harris 2.520k to Trump 1.750k AZ: 535k votes - Harris 280k to Trump 255k MD: 400k votes - Harris 300k to Trump 100k WA: 345k votes - Harris 225k to Trump 120k OR: 300k votes - Harris 210k to Trump 90k NJ: 250k votes - Harris 160k to Trump 90k UT: 250k votes - Harris 115k to Trump 135k CO: 180k votes - Harris 115k to Trump 65k NY: 130k votes - Harris 90k to Trump 40k PA: 130k votes - Harris 75k to Trump 55k 8 other States with missing votes combined: 275k votes - Harris 168k to Trump 107k

Popular Vote Margin of Victory?

Justifax

6 months ago

Connecticut? Might want to check your data...

1

joewarida.

6 months ago

My math says gop 2.3%

Popular Vote Margin of Victory?

Justifax

6 months ago

Where are you getting your missing votes from?

0

mcpetrus

6 months ago

Missing votes: ~7,065,000 ----- Calculated final result: Trump 76,931,562 (((50.02%))) --- Harris 74,593,302 (((48,50))) --- other 2,772,875 (((1.48)))

Popular Vote Margin of Victory?

Justifax

6 months ago

lol well if you bet there will be liquidity!

1

Justifax

6 months ago

Tonnes to bet on in the https://polymarket.com/event/popular-vote-margin-of-victory-0pt25-ranges market

Popular Vote Margin of Victory?

Justifax

6 months ago

Tonnes to bet on in the https://polymarket.com/event/popular-vote-margin-of-victory-0pt25-ranges market

3

Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Justifax

6 months ago

AP keeps increasing it's estimate, lulz. Hodl indeed

0

BigDaddyMoneyMaker

6 months ago

I think yes is cooked but I will hodl

Favorite to win on Polymarket day before election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Sidebet for who starts panic selling kam first.

1

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

Justifax

6 months ago

oh noes they got openai as well, do these whales have no shame!! https://chatgpt.com/share/671fe659-b69c-800a-ac90-8edc01193abc

1

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

Justifax

6 months ago

the whales have taken over perplexity!! this conspiracy goes wide

2

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

Justifax

6 months ago

Zeldar, zeldar, zeldar. What are you doing

1

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

Justifax

6 months ago

You have to realize where all the scammers come from - memecoins. 99.9% of the pump dumps go to zero, and it's all about pump/buying/selling before it does. The one difference is there is a bit more meat here to ravage.

3

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

Justifax

6 months ago

someone unironically describing every polymarket ever. scottilicious 177.8K Yes 14m ago There have to be some market makers making lots of $ on all this strange activity buyoed by newbie bozos thinking they're gonna strike it rich on something that has already been clarified. Strange.

1

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

Justifax

6 months ago

you're not betting against whales here, you're betting against the WSJ and NYT, two storied institutions with billions of dollars of goodwill based on their credibility.

1

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

Justifax

6 months ago

Tip for ER on UMA, rather than posting yet another argument that won't be read, instead find the most credible argument for your side and link to it / call out the name of the poster. This saves the voters time and draws attention to a convincing argument.

0

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

Justifax

6 months ago

ok it's a valid link. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraqi_News_Agency

1

sorgegorrows

6 months ago

https://ina.iq/eng/35857-no-iraqi-targets-were-exposed-during-the-zionist-attack-on-iran.html

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

Justifax

6 months ago

Nowhere is the iraqi govt saying Israel did not bomb iranian proxies in Iraq. It's a big country. btw, this is not a scam link - https://ina.iq/eng/35857-no-iraqi-targets-were-exposed-during-the-zionist-attack-on-iran.html https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraqi_News_Agency

0

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

Justifax

6 months ago

yikes, not going to click on that.

0

sorgegorrows

6 months ago

https://ina.iq/eng/35857-no-iraqi-targets-were-exposed-during-the-zionist-attack-on-iran.html

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

Justifax

6 months ago

yes, iraqi govt cooperates with the US. there are non state iranian proxies in iraq tho. big country

0

MeisterOd

6 months ago

Iraq Official Telegram:Israel never bombed us, in fact we cooperated with America and opened our airspace to them to bomb Iran.

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

Justifax

6 months ago

again, iraq govt has never said israel did not bomb iranian proxies in iraq. they are just stressing that iraq is not at war with israel.

0

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

Justifax

6 months ago

yup

0

denizz

6 months ago

A bunch of outright scamming for no in the comments

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

Justifax

6 months ago

Here's the guy reporting on this, I don't think he's going to retract - https://x.com/ronenbergman/status/1850380890632790183 This should go YES, the only issue now is UMA flakiness.

0

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

Justifax

6 months ago

Anyways, I did what I could. Check my profile how to avoid getting scammed in the future.

2

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

Justifax

6 months ago

CFO unstaked half his UMA I believe so another added risk to bonding. I dunno how people can trust UMA these days. Fair price is around 95%, but medium confidence. I wouldn't size your bet that large..

0

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

Justifax

6 months ago

Hopefully NYT staff isn't betting on this market. lol

2

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

Justifax

6 months ago

twig 106.9K No 4m ago Someone explain to me how I vote on this shit ... ffs. You can't vote. It's decided by UMA staff. JFC

1

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

Justifax

6 months ago

Folks, videos and pictures on twitter are 95% bullshit. If you think that is evidence, you are completely lost.

0

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

Justifax

6 months ago

95% of those videos is total bullshit. You have no fffing clue

1

Justifax

6 months ago

"it isnt the same in both cases the results of does acctions had evidense on the ground unlike the situation here wich have none" This is a BS argument. There is never 'evidence on the ground'. We're all online sitting behind our computers. We have to trust the reporting. Sure there are videos or pictures, but maybe they are deepfakes or ancient videos or whatever. At some point, you have to trust the reporters are not reporting bullshit.

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

Justifax

6 months ago

"it isnt the same in both cases the results of does acctions had evidense on the ground unlike the situation here wich have none" This is a BS argument. There is never 'evidence on the ground'. We're all online sitting behind our computers. We have to trust the reporting. Sure there are videos or pictures, but maybe they are deepfakes or ancient videos or whatever. At some point, you have to trust the reporters are not reporting bullshit.

2

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

Justifax

6 months ago

Two examples of markets resolved on un-named officials - https://polymarket.com/event/israeli-forces-enters-lebanon-in-september and https://polymarket.com/event/israel-military-action-against-iran-by-friday Neither had officiall confirmation from israel/idf.

2

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

Justifax

6 months ago

Resolving markets on un-named officials is very typical for Israeli actions as they rarely confirm their attacks. wsj/nyt are among the most credible outlets that exist today for Polymarket.

2

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

Justifax

6 months ago

People buying NO on the BS need to be aware that top NO could hold YES as well, illegal wash trading. They are trying to scam you into letting them buy cheap YES.

1

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

Justifax

6 months ago

For real, I'm sure these scammers are just wash trading against themselves and trying to scam. Hopefully everyone realizes that.

2

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

Justifax

6 months ago

Unreal, the level of scamming going on here. I mean, can we turn off the comments or something.

2

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

Justifax

6 months ago

I agree it's unlikely, but shit happens.

1

Justifax

6 months ago

I'd be somewhat cautious about this market. There might be retraction(s) in the works. If this was just people reporting based on NYT or something, and NYT retracts it could all fall apart. I don't see that as likely right now, but I dunno if I'd do what car has done.

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

Justifax

6 months ago

Again, other than the alhurra link, *nobody* has said Israel didn't bomb stuff in Iraq. Radar belonging to iranian proxies rather than Iraqi govt could have got bombed. That said, I have no idea how scam UMA will resolve stuff, but purely from a truth POV, nyt/wsj is strong consensus unless they retract.

1

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

Justifax

6 months ago

That's not a retraction. You are wasting your money and potentially encouraging others to do the same. Don't be a fucking tool

2

twig

6 months ago

https://news.sky.com/story/middle-east-latest-idf-israel-conducting-strikes-on-tehran-iran-syria-12978800?postid=8508751#liveblog-body

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

Justifax

6 months ago

I'd be somewhat cautious about this market. There might be retraction(s) in the works. If this was just people reporting based on NYT or something, and NYT retracts it could all fall apart. I don't see that as likely right now, but I dunno if I'd do what car has done.

1

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

Justifax

6 months ago

If a tree falls in the forest, but CNN doesn't write about it, does it happen?

4

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

Justifax

6 months ago

Mostly, they think because cnn didn't write about it, it didn't happen.

1

🤺JustPunched

6 months ago

So the CNN report is blatantly made up?

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

Justifax

6 months ago

wsj/nyt have reported it. I am chatting with an nyt reporter and he is double checking, but thinks officials have already confirmed it.

0

Justifax

6 months ago

The only link contradicting the reports is this: https://www.alhurra.com/iraq/2024/10/26/%D9%85%D8%B5%D8%AF%D8%B1-%D9%8A%D9%83%D8%B4%D9%81-%D8%A3%D8%B3%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%A8-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%81%D8%AC%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%82-%D8%AE%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%84-%D8%B6%D8%B1%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A5%D8%B3%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%A6%D9%8A%D9%84-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%A5%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

Justifax

6 months ago

The only link contradicting the reports is this: https://www.alhurra.com/iraq/2024/10/26/%D9%85%D8%B5%D8%AF%D8%B1-%D9%8A%D9%83%D8%B4%D9%81-%D8%A3%D8%B3%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%A8-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%81%D8%AC%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%82-%D8%AE%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%84-%D8%B6%D8%B1%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A5%D8%B3%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%A6%D9%8A%D9%84-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%A5%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86

0

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

Justifax

6 months ago

fwiw, I emailed the folks at NYT and they are double checking based on the info below (not joking)

2

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

Justifax

6 months ago

Unlimited Market Abuse

3

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

Justifax

6 months ago

Where? link

0

0x4444Fc34bd252890cF24a10ce161e2ae9380C4FB-1729774461789

6 months ago

in wikipidia they are saying that radars in iraq where attacked

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

Justifax

6 months ago

"No Iraqi military, economic or civilian facilities were affected during Israel's Saturday morning strikes" It's worth noting that iran backed bad dudes which aren't govt are in Iraq.

1

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

Justifax

6 months ago

I have not seen any official denials from Iraq that Israel did strikes in Iraq. If you know of any please, share them.

0

Another Iran strike on Israel in October?

Justifax

6 months ago

Hmmm, Iran seems to be pretty persistent in denying anything is being damaged. Unless Israel hits something other than military bases, should be OK. But is ongoing..

0

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

Justifax

6 months ago

Note the extremly vague rules, btw, which is the heart of the problem.

0

Justifax

6 months ago

Awesome, sentdefender can witness first hand what a joke resolution is on polymarket. Hopefully he will tweet about it.

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

Justifax

6 months ago

Awesome, sentdefender can witness first hand what a joke resolution is on polymarket. Hopefully he will tweet about it.

1

Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2024?

Justifax

6 months ago

Be aware that if corridors are considered buffer zones, you could get very very easily scammed in this market.

2

Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2024?

Justifax

6 months ago

Well, the bright side is I can see car getting easily scammed in this market.

0

Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2024?

Justifax

6 months ago

Top 5 worst rules of all the Israel markets. Full on scam market. Trade at your own risk.

0

Which party wins the most seats in British Columbia election?

Justifax

6 months ago

recount

2

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Justifax

6 months ago

there has been aa discord created to discuss this market and similar vague rules markets https://discord.gg/EHBEwWRX

1

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Justifax

6 months ago

for folks that want to be kept aprised of any future vague market rules, or talk with others who've have to deal with vague rules like this market, i've created a discord called predictionmarket-scams https://discord.gg/EHBEwWRX

2

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Justifax

6 months ago

if you have a dispute with poly you can consider the arbitration process they've outlined in their tos https://x.com/lilsteppppa/status/1846761812294799452?s=46

1

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Justifax

6 months ago

hey folks, there is a good twitter account to look into - https://x.com/mikevers21/status/1846454403105972706?s=46&t=M_JaRjI9AMBqe3lRIt3OWg we have a discord for discussing poly scam markets - https://discord.gg/EHBEwWRX

0

North Korea x South Korea military clash in 2024?

Justifax

6 months ago

warning shots are plausible, but war is improbable. That said, crazy shit has been happening. I put this at 5%?

0

whileTrue

6 months ago

I am attaching a news article. Neither South Korea nor North Korea wants war. A military clash will not occur. https://www.hani.co.kr/arti/politics/politics_general/1162731.html

North Korea x South Korea military clash in 2024?

Justifax

6 months ago

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/5/3/north-and-south-korea-exchange-gunfire-across-border Surebet745.. I call out your BS, share a link or STFU

0

North Korea x South Korea military clash in 2024?

Justifax

6 months ago

LOL .. clarification made things worse. What about an exchange of warning shots? Happened in 2020.

0

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Justifax

6 months ago

I mean, for ffffing real. Did you serious miss the tens of thousands of posts warning you this would happen? You're betting on the rug, you bet wrong, get over it.

1

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Today, I will bet on a website which I haven't the faintest clue as to how it constantly rugs its users via vague rules because I am a bonafide crypto-chump.

1

Bills vs. Jets

Justifax

6 months ago

most flagged game since 2018.. hilarious

1

TCA

6 months ago

bro lol, we got some VERY favorable calls. We did get lucky. dude 100 grand on that game though jesus!

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

Justifax

6 months ago

the october market is still a reasonable play, but i think this market is a bit overpriced. Israel has room to be patient and thoughtful, there's no need to rush their response.

1

Justifax

6 months ago

israel's biggest problem is that it's not at war with enough people, so yes, they will strike iran.

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

Justifax

6 months ago

on the other hand, if iran does anything to interfere with the goal of making the north safe, israel has a good excuse to shut them down.

1

Justifax

6 months ago

israel's biggest problem is that it's not at war with enough people, so yes, they will strike iran.

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

Justifax

6 months ago

ofc, being satirical. seriously though, if they do a weak strike, they will look weak. but a strong strike risks opening up yet another front with has nothing to do with their war goals - which do not include fighting iran.

1

Justifax

6 months ago

israel's biggest problem is that it's not at war with enough people, so yes, they will strike iran.

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

Justifax

6 months ago

israel's biggest problem is that it's not at war with enough people, so yes, they will strike iran.

3

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Let's face it folks, Trump's 2024 run was just an elaborate scam to rug a poly shitcoin market.

3

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Big, if true: de5nuts 1.8K No 9h ago As a former top Yes holder and someone who's traded this market for a few months Yes holders should just be aware that the WLFI team is aware of the market and are prone to shenanigans. I don't think the volatility is over, if you hold size be careful but I'm still in spirit with the Yes team.

2

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Imagine betting on poly assuming there will be some kind of fair resolution.

3

Justifax

6 months ago

Be kind of hilarious if UMA goes no here.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Justifax

6 months ago

Be kind of hilarious if UMA goes no here.

0

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

Justifax

7 months ago

scam

4

AlfredStieglitz

7 months ago

The leading aIternative of polymarket has the exact same bet with twice much more liquidity and different odds, I'm not sure which market is more accurate but аrbitrаgе is certainly doable https://x.com/Defiant_Predict/status/1844068113450762423.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Justifax

7 months ago

mm is probably just deluded. 99% of posters are bad faith actors and mm barely scratches the surface.

0

Lawyered.eth

7 months ago

I capitulated due to the Oct 15th possible drop date. I did not expect that (and still think it may just be to cash grab, and delay launch).. I stick to my thesis, though. The following are facts. 1) This is poorly written. 2) If WLFI drops a token, trump is probably "involved" on a balance of probabilities. 3) the nft's ought not to be included, logically speaking 4) mountainmain is a bad faith actor, moreso than anyone else on this board

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Justifax

7 months ago

yeh, though they've done this so many times now, it starts to beggar belief.

2

Lawyered.eth

7 months ago

hanlon's razor. it's poorly written because the writers are dumb

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Justifax

7 months ago

There are so many sources of plausible deniability in the process that sucks out money from folks just wanting to predict stuff. It's a scam for sure, though not the obvious one everyone gets distracted by.

2

Justifax

7 months ago

Largely the scam is the rules themselves, and not so much the resolution. It's too late to fix this, but recognize the ongoing scam as Polymarket creates more vague rules that generate controversy and volume. It also provides a profit generation for regulars who can better predict how the scam will playout - not being on intrinsic factors as it should, but on extrinsic ones that are unknown to newcomers. The alternative theory is gross negligence, but that is equivalent of fraud.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Justifax

7 months ago

Largely the scam is the rules themselves, and not so much the resolution. It's too late to fix this, but recognize the ongoing scam as Polymarket creates more vague rules that generate controversy and volume. It also provides a profit generation for regulars who can better predict how the scam will playout - not being on intrinsic factors as it should, but on extrinsic ones that are unknown to newcomers. The alternative theory is gross negligence, but that is equivalent of fraud.

4

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Justifax

7 months ago

No, I posted it because these scam rules suck and make poly near impossible to use for a lot of stuff that I am interested in.

0

Mountainman

7 months ago

He buys a small amount of the side of the bet he plans to talk shit on. Every single time. So predictable. Very low IQ, can barely put together a sentence but likes to bury comments like mine that show that this market will be resolving YES no matter how hard they cry now. He will just keep posting and try to bury it to manipulate the market. The cabal is getting very desperate on this one hahahaha.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Justifax

7 months ago

Dude, you are suffering paranoid delusions. I would get that checked

0

Mountainman

7 months ago

He buys a small amount of the side of the bet he plans to talk shit on. Every single time. So predictable. Very low IQ, can barely put together a sentence but likes to bury comments like mine that show that this market will be resolving YES no matter how hard they cry now. He will just keep posting and try to bury it to manipulate the market. The cabal is getting very desperate on this one hahahaha.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Justifax

7 months ago

i think you'll win this one, mm, but that might be more hope than optimism.

0

Mountainman

7 months ago

He buys a small amount of the side of the bet he plans to talk shit on. Every single time. So predictable. Very low IQ, can barely put together a sentence but likes to bury comments like mine that show that this market will be resolving YES no matter how hard they cry now. He will just keep posting and try to bury it to manipulate the market. The cabal is getting very desperate on this one hahahaha.

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Justifax

7 months ago

eotd, the scam is the shitty rules and causing controversy because that attracts volume maybe. i dunno. at least it keeps smart people away from polymarket i guess.

2

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Justifax

7 months ago

hey my PNL is like 10x yours, so shut up!!! heh

0

PokerBrat

7 months ago

Justifax just bought his 10 shares so we can see his shitty comments. Be prepared to hear the worst newsletter that you never subscribed for…

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Justifax

7 months ago

aenews, car, pence thing the scam will be based on something technical cucky, like trump isn't legally involved. others are betting on common sense reality, like the video he tweeted promoting it. i think common sense will win, and maybe this should be a bit higher, but who knows these days. credibility is at a low point

2

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Justifax

7 months ago

the rules are basically a scam. nobody serious is betting on reality, everyone is just betting on how the scam will be scammed.

1

Israel Military response against Iran when?

Justifax

7 months ago

at least use "other" or something

1

Justifax

7 months ago

"later" is rather fatalistic, geez poly

Israel Military response against Iran when?

Justifax

7 months ago

"later" is rather fatalistic, geez poly

2

Fed Interest Rates: November 2024

Justifax

7 months ago

btc dropping, no change looking good. sigh.

0

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

Justifax

7 months ago

covert responses could lose in uma

1

Israel military response against Iran in October?

Justifax

7 months ago

covert attacks could lose in uma

4

Will Speed break the 24h backflip world record?

Justifax

7 months ago

someone smartcash him big to do an extra flip

0

Will Speed break the 24h backflip world record?

Justifax

7 months ago

there's a difference between acting on minecraft and shakily flipping over your head and risking a spinal injury acting

0

Will Speed break the 24h backflip world record?

Justifax

7 months ago

how sure of that are you?

0

babavanga500k

7 months ago

If it needed 3 cameras for a world record this would have been an invalid market in the first place ergo AS LONG AS HE BREAKS 1009 ON STREAM ACCORDING TO THE VIDEO

Will Speed break the 24h backflip world record?

Justifax

7 months ago

you're not just betting will the counter make it to 1009 but will it get disputed and how will uma rule if it does

1

ben291

7 months ago

If he does hit it according to the counter but Guinness doesn't certify it saying these are invalid backflips, wouldn't the no side win a dispute as the video doesn't show him hitting the record with valid backflips, regardless of what the counter says?

Will Speed break the 24h backflip world record?

Justifax

7 months ago

well that's part of the bet, you can thank poly for that

2

ben291

7 months ago

If he does hit it according to the counter but Guinness doesn't certify it saying these are invalid backflips, wouldn't the no side win a dispute as the video doesn't show him hitting the record with valid backflips, regardless of what the counter says?

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

Justifax

7 months ago

Part of the problem is that it was very hard to believe that the director was this stupid.

4

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

Justifax

7 months ago

You can ask chat to summarize.

0

Justifax

7 months ago

Last comment of the day, please everyone read these two links and study them very carefully before any further betting on polymarket: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Favourite-longshot_bias

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

Justifax

7 months ago

Last comment of the day, please everyone read these two links and study them very carefully before any further betting on polymarket: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Favourite-longshot_bias

5

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

Justifax

7 months ago

How did Roemer suddenly morph from like a random friend of friend insider into a crypto whale? Hmm.

1

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

Justifax

7 months ago

Though, it'd be super super fitting if the teaser to this doc was a hilarious and massive rug fueled by a fake forbes article. Performance art, let's call it..

5

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

Justifax

7 months ago

It means HL gets everything.

1

TheNo1

7 months ago

What is “Winner-take-all” mean on the top of this market page (hovering over “Prize” symbol”?!!

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

Justifax

7 months ago

Alrighty, you guys win. I'm out. You'll win for sure now. Well keep the Le Roux shares as a memento of my stupidity.

2

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

Justifax

7 months ago

Wins, for funniest comment.

1

MaxShorter

7 months ago

HaterzLoserz you are a retard, close your position before it goes to zero . i will keep shorting your adam back pumps . your pumping the price of adam like saylor does with btc

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

Justifax

7 months ago

I can only imagine how much the negriskers made in this market.

0

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

Justifax

7 months ago

My favorite BTC scam moment was the 'fake' gensler tweet. Lulz. That was a much bigger deal than a planted forbes article. If it is!

3

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

Justifax

7 months ago

Yeah, you're probably right. He should though.

0

Remontada

7 months ago

Let's be real. He won't.

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

Justifax

7 months ago

It's possible it's not Todd but if so Billy Brambough just took a serious hit to his career.

2

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

Justifax

7 months ago

Ok, back bros, you will now win as I have sold off half my Adam shares.

0

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

Justifax

7 months ago

The director can't be that stupid. I've 'sacrificed' crypto as well.

0

mona.lisa

7 months ago

This is in the Forbes article, but not in the leaked clips: "Hoback's theory relies on a chat log message written by Todd in which he claims to be the "world's leading expert on how to sacrifice your bitcoins ... I've done one such sacrifice and I did it by hand," Todd wrote. Hoback characterized the message as an "admission" by Todd that he destroyed his ability to access the 1.1 million bitcoin believed to be held by Satoshi Nakamoto, something Todd denies.

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

Justifax

7 months ago

Well, I guess we could pray to the lord in heaven abvove the Director trolled the journalists.

0

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

Justifax

7 months ago

Probably the best signal it's todd is I didn't paper hand on that Adam pump.

3

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

Justifax

7 months ago

Scammers think everyone is a scammer. Get used to it.

0

mona.lisa

7 months ago

why are people pretending the Forbes article is irrelevant? It includes multiple quotes from the film which were not seen in the available leaked videos. Cullen also said he gave the full film to journalists from reputable outlets. So it's a strong Todd signal.

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

Justifax

7 months ago

Be more effective to do it from the alt.

0

Lukyyyyyyy

7 months ago

cope harder, it includes nothing not seen before, but I guess you gotta pump your alt's bags

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

Justifax

7 months ago

Well, hope the doc is better than the clip, cause wow that Director comes off as an idiot.

1

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

Justifax

7 months ago

The one problem is the 'controversial' clue. Would Adam really be 'controversial'?

2

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

Justifax

7 months ago

Yeah, curious where the pump on Adam came from. I like the logic that it is Le Roux cause he's crazy, and Satoshi seems very neurodivergent.

1

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

Justifax

7 months ago

hmm sound logic.

0

Anti-ScamLawyer

7 months ago

I thought Le roux would be the hit piece. He’s the craziest and the only one that make sense honestly. No one doesn’t touch 10s of billions for years unless they cant

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

Justifax

7 months ago

Lol, the one time I don't paper hand it's going to zero. Just you watch.

0

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

Justifax

7 months ago

For the record, not trying to pump Other. Just wondering how it got so high.

0

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

Justifax

7 months ago

It's an interesting point - is it a hit piece on bitcoin? Let's spread the word it was built by some kid in school, that's how flakey it is.

0

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

Justifax

7 months ago

Personally, after watching the clip, it seems pretty stupid to pick Todd. If it his him, I hope they have a more convincing reaction from him that he is Satoshi. The way he sounded in the clip was - 'dude, are you on drugs?'

4

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

Justifax

7 months ago

HBO usually does it straight, but the pick is supposed to be 'controversial' and todd would be that. Adam said they DCM'd the clip, so again, the leak could real. This is not financial advice.

1

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

Justifax

7 months ago

I mean, Adam did say it wasn't him. Lol

0

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

Justifax

7 months ago

I love HL but he takes wild big swinging dick bets sometimes. Just a heads up.

1

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

Justifax

7 months ago

It's possible the person below screened it, but it's also possible there are multiple endings that were sent out for a/b testing.

8

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

Justifax

7 months ago

I think we'll get a 'most likely' statement which satisfies this market.

3

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

Justifax

7 months ago

let's hope so.

0

mona.lisa

7 months ago

Cullen said he settled on ONE name, not multiple.

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

Justifax

7 months ago

I wish there was an "other not on list" option. Oh well.

2

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

Justifax

7 months ago

the director could be an idiot, but i'm skeptical.

2

DeucePapi

7 months ago

So Peter Todd is richest man in world?

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

Justifax

7 months ago

two or more individuals as likely, so YES.

0

MeVotedTwice

7 months ago

I don't understand how other/multiple is at 90? If they end without naming the persorn or group of people, wouldn't other resolve to NO along with every other market or is that a yes even if they don't name anyone?

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

Justifax

7 months ago

I think it could be anyone on the list. I bet no earlier because I wanted to cover, but then I realized the director could rug us. Which is probably why it's priced so high.

0

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

Justifax

7 months ago

It might be back, I truly have no clue. Not even sure why I bought him at this point. Not going dump it though, just take the loss.

0

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

Justifax

7 months ago

It could be a bunch of rapid takes on different theories. By accusing everyone the director can also keep the conclusion secret.

0

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

Justifax

7 months ago

That's why I bought back :)

0

DeucePapi

7 months ago

Read Back's Twitter. He's discounting the documentary saying ppl shouldn't believe that Satoshi is who the doc says it is

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

Justifax

7 months ago

Other might not be overpriced. It's possible by accusing everyone the director gets away with saying he confronted him.

0

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

Justifax

7 months ago

classic.

0

SwaggyRach

7 months ago

https://x.com/theblockcitizen/status/1843732566261846387 its peter todd wp

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

Justifax

7 months ago

Not Elon Musk though, I guess. too bad

0

informed

7 months ago

It is Adam Back, you just got misguided by some insignificant leak. They will ask 10 different people at least in documentary whether they are Satoshi. Even people like Prince Phillip Karadzordzevic

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

Justifax

7 months ago

There was this TV detective who's technique was to accuse everyone of murder and see how they reacted. Dunno if this director is that clever tho.

2

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

Justifax

7 months ago

When car goes to hell he will have to sit in a chair and pump meme coins for eternity or be repeatedly eaten by gargoyles.

2

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

Justifax

7 months ago

oh yes, of course you'd post this.

2

Car

7 months ago

The cast says Vili Lehdonvirta is Satoshi Nakamoto: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt33600145/fullcredits/?ref_=tt_ov_st#cast

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

Justifax

7 months ago

I mean, it could be todd? At least for the doc. Pretty sure todd isn't satoshi. His reaction was genuine. I think, could be wrong, the director confronts a number of people and settles on one (hopefully, but maybe he is rugging us)

0

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

Justifax

7 months ago

Curious, anyone betting on Todd? I assumed the leaked video was just a teaser, but could be wrong I guess.

0

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

Justifax

7 months ago

https://x.com/Cryptopotato_TR/status/1843722392272810298

0

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

Justifax

7 months ago

Lol, in the cnn interview the direction implies that the person denies to him that he is satoshi.

0

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

Justifax

7 months ago

i agree, her out of gate price control speech was bananas

0

WhaleCloud

7 months ago

lol that’s her biggest weakness? Looking past her social view points that I disagree with, her economic ideals would be horrible for the American people long term. I don’t think anyone would read a full TLDR explanation of economic policy and free market trickle down economics but my point is, for those of us that do understand, it’s certainly not her lack of interviews that drive me/us away from her…

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

Justifax

7 months ago

too little too late? guess we will see

0

idfkanything

7 months ago

I thought she was on a media blitz starting this week.

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

Justifax

7 months ago

better the devil you know, right

1

Justifax

7 months ago

kam's biggest weakness is the fact that polling indicates nobody knows who she is. she avoided interviews too much, imho

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

Justifax

7 months ago

kam's biggest weakness is the fact that polling indicates nobody knows who she is. she avoided interviews too much, imho

4

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

Justifax

7 months ago

if you look at the polling people still don't know who kam is.

0

Justifax

7 months ago

i wonder how much the vance debate moved the polls. trump looks pretty tight for selecting someone who is clearly razor sharp.

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

Justifax

7 months ago

the problem is less trump and more kam, she was a mystery because of the lack of interviews and sudden switch to center.

0

Cedarville

7 months ago

In his interview with her, he even told her he sucks at debates. Debates won’t win this election, though. People made up their mind about trump yes or no years ago. Anyone claiming they’re on the fence is just a closeted trump supporter

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

Justifax

7 months ago

Nates struggling to get respect from the markets these days. They didn't believe him when he had trump ahead and they don't believe him when he has kam ahead.

0

Remontada

7 months ago

Even Nate thinks this is odd! https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1843344158662242761

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

Justifax

7 months ago

i am biased to trump in preference. he's a vile piece of shit, but sometimes you need shit to fertilize growth

1

Justifax

7 months ago

i stil love walz, but kam doesn't look so good for selecting someone who appeared dumber in the debate

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

Justifax

7 months ago

yeh, i don't think kam is dumb or dei but her pick doesn't seem to be helping her. trump had a deep bench of smart people to pick from, tbh.

0

Justifax

7 months ago

i stil love walz, but kam doesn't look so good for selecting someone who appeared dumber in the debate

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

Justifax

7 months ago

i stil love walz, but kam doesn't look so good for selecting someone who appeared dumber in the debate

1

Justifax

7 months ago

i wonder how much the vance debate moved the polls. trump looks pretty tight for selecting someone who is clearly razor sharp.

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

Justifax

7 months ago

i wonder how much the vance debate moved the polls. trump looks pretty tight for selecting someone who is clearly razor sharp.

4

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

Justifax

7 months ago

on top of that the kam cratering continues

1

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

Justifax

7 months ago

i think if we don't see a poll in the next 2 hours, we might be fucked

1

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

Justifax

7 months ago

chat is saying sunday or monday, ruh roh. well karma for copy trading i guess https://chatgpt.com/share/6704097d-0b80-800a-93bb-115599d7b7bc

1

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

Justifax

7 months ago

Art, am I mistaken or is tuesday the day when the most polls come out during the week? I did that analysis once. Monday or Tuesday, can't remember which.

2

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Justifax

7 months ago

Just to clear up as someone below was confused. Unless we get to 9.9M votes on one side the vote will 'roll', ie, have to be repeated. But a simple majority will inform the next vote which will likely go 100%.

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Justifax

7 months ago

Kevin Chan committed his vote yesterday and then a minute later a topholder posted on discord very confidently about the vote. It could be a coincidence of course, but I dunno. Did they communicate? Probably not but because of the 'decentralized' voting machine is so centralized and lacks transparency these issues arise.

4

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Justifax

7 months ago

That is not necessarily true. You might want to avoid commenting on something you know nothing about.

0

Le-King

7 months ago

There's no more vote on this homie

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Justifax

7 months ago

It is what it is. The result shouldn't be surprising. The DVM is a flawed mechanism and the second biggest topholder on NO dislikes it as much as everyone else. We should all advocate for Polymarket to drop UMA at the earliest time possible.

8

·

Liked by Donkov, Donkov and 12 others

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Justifax

7 months ago

So we actually don't need consensus, just a majority vote. Yes it will roll to another vote, but the next vote will go all in on the previous majority because of the updated schelling point.

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Justifax

7 months ago

It's funny - I predicted exactly this earlier. A known whale confidently posted about the outcome of the vote minutes after Kevin voted yesterday. Maybe a coincidence, but it gave me a vibe that Kevin would vote P1. All up to BTL now.

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Justifax

7 months ago

Technically 24 hours and sometimes it goes to the finish line, sometimes sooner. Sunday night, so might have to wait until tomorrow. Not sure.

0

EdgyUsername

7 months ago

How long does it take for the returns to come in?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Justifax

7 months ago

There are many problems with vague rules in PMs, but the biggest is the plausible deniability for rigging the resolution.

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Justifax

7 months ago

The problem is that we have so much money in this market it's starting to make sense to manipulate outcomes.

0

TooDumbToWin

7 months ago

if I understand correctly, UMA token holders are rewarded if they answer correctly and penalized if they don't, but for now we are at 75/25 while more voters said yes than those who said no? this system is absurd

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Justifax

7 months ago

Yeah, people are very confused. We're gamblers not news reporters. Leave the news reporting up to the experts.

0

niverse

7 months ago

Now the proportion of people who voted for "no" is far ahead. I don't understand why they would vote "no". This is not in their interest and is not in line with common sense. I will give one of their reasons. The open entry of ground troops into Lebanon does not mean an invasion.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Justifax

7 months ago

Gas prices are kinda lowest right now, so in theory we should be seeing some reveals. But they remain low for the next few hours

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Justifax

7 months ago

As these markets get more valuable and more volume, these sorts of things are doable.

0

Justifax

7 months ago

Assume these non UMA staff whales on UMA are in a crypto cabal. What keeps them from betting on this market? If kevin/btl split they could be the tie breaker.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Justifax

7 months ago

Assume these non UMA staff whales on UMA are in a crypto cabal. What keeps them from betting on this market? If kevin/btl split they could be the tie breaker.

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Justifax

7 months ago

0x1cc0 877K - ouch for yes. Was p4 last time. Now 74N/25Y and 18.6% tokens revealed.

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Justifax

7 months ago

Yeah, my posts are all scam. You are so smart.

0

1mperator17

7 months ago

i thought you said buying while a dispute is being revealed in scamming

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Justifax

7 months ago

I really must resist betting in this market. Of all the trading I've done, I've always sold before going to dispute because I do not trust the process at all. Probably first time I've held.

2

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Justifax

7 months ago

vote.uma.xyz for details

0

n/a

7 months ago

What is real end date of this poll?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Justifax

7 months ago

No, it's not Domer and I doubt Chad, as that would like mean prison for someone. My guess is that it's one or more people that work at UMA. But I dunno for sure

0

EdgyUsername

7 months ago

Should we infer that is JustKen and Chad or JustKen and maybe UMAmustbe

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Justifax

7 months ago

Well, not so much wallets, as two actors - Kevin Chan, CFO of UMA and 'btl', who I think is UMA staff.

1

Justifax

7 months ago

Wallet count, 31 Y 19 N. 65% N 35% Y Again, just *two* wallets count for ~42% of all the ~17.6M tokens committed in this vote.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Justifax

7 months ago

Wallet count, 31 Y 19 N. 65% N 35% Y Again, just *two* wallets count for ~42% of all the ~17.6M tokens committed in this vote.

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Justifax

7 months ago

vote.uma.xyz

1

EdgyUsername

7 months ago

What % of votes are in

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Justifax

7 months ago

Reinis_FRP, UMA revealed 72K for P2. He was P2 last vote as well. There are no named UMA voters that have gone p1 yet, but the dune query might not capture them.

4

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Justifax

7 months ago

I've met about 2 people so far that I think are honest?

1

McLarry

7 months ago

Is there anyone on this site who doesn't scam? wtf

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Justifax

7 months ago

This could resolve NO. Honestly, and this is not financial advice, I think the odds around 50/50 right now. I'd say keep an eye on aenews (he's well versed in all of this) but he could wash trade scam you.

4

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Justifax

7 months ago

To be fair: it's possible they are delegating their votes to other people. lifewillbeokay would no, but he's kinda mean so I'm not going to ask. :(

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Justifax

7 months ago

Something to think about, of course. It's more subtle and probably harder to prosecute because of plausible deniability, but these ups and downs in the market could potentially be coordinated. Certainly the slow roll is very strange, why not just do them all in one shot while you're at the computer?

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Justifax

7 months ago

Afaict, please correct me if I am wrong, Chase has another 380K tokens to reveal and he's slow rolling them. Maybe UMA can't manipulate the outcome and get away with it, but maybe they can control the order of the reveal and how the trading goes.

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Justifax

7 months ago

Chase Coleman, UMA who was P4 last time, went P2 this time.

4

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Justifax

7 months ago

I posted the link on the discord.

0

niverse

7 months ago

Where can I check it? I can't find it. Thank you

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Justifax

7 months ago

I'll be honest, I don't know how btl is going to vote here. I am a little suspicious that Kevin will vote P1 as he seemed to do it at a weird time and rather quickly after voting started. But we will see!

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Justifax

7 months ago

Wallet count is now 29 YES and 15 NO.

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Justifax

7 months ago

One thing you can do is compare previous vote versus current vote. For example, previously we had 3.2M for YES and 0x4c34 has now voted YES whereas they voted TOO EARLY last time. They revealed 175,502 tokens.

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Justifax

7 months ago

If you go on polycord, I have pasted a link to the dune query which you can use to show in realtime who's revealed votes. Hat tip @lifewillbeokay

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Justifax

7 months ago

One of the reasons I hate the UMA process is the orthogonal insider info that veterans can use to take money away from folks just trying to bet on "did they invade". For example, which UMA voters have a high accuracy rate on disputed markets? What's their connection to the chain for reveals like? Do they know the identity of btl and their potential biases? The list goes on and all of these details are not relevant to the underlying question.

3

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Justifax

7 months ago

Imho, trading during a dispute is largely a scam. You don't realize how much insider info people have against you and while I have the ability to do the same I refuse to take part in such a scam.

0

1mperator17

7 months ago

so youre just bad at it then?

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

Justifax

7 months ago

I generally despise copy trading, but for Vandalay Industries I will make an exception.

2

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Justifax

7 months ago

I carefully limited this buy so as not to dump it like Car does. It's funny but tragic how people don't understand the scam.

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Justifax

7 months ago

If I were pumping, I would have sold a long time ago. In fact, I would have bought mass NO as the flip toward 50/50 was inevitable. Cars scam is to pump and then sell to chumps that fall for his scam.

5

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Justifax

7 months ago

More decentralized wallets are voting p2, but more shares are voting p1. A lot of UMA staff voted p2 last go around, but the two big whales voted p4.

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Justifax

7 months ago

My guess is because it's so centralized, UMA wants the option to control when they reveal their vote to see how the 'decentralized' part votes.

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Justifax

7 months ago

be aware that people have high speed connections to the chain and will see vote reveals before you do. if you have orders on the book, they will get snatched.

6

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Justifax

7 months ago

so far 17 p2 voters to 8 p1 voters, but of course share ownership matters. it comes down to 2 voters basically. btl and kevin chan

5

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Justifax

7 months ago

Car and his fanboy NIGGA. Car is buying NO at resistance points, pumping very hard any BS he can imagine, and then selling. He is the worst low life imaginable.

4

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Justifax

7 months ago

UMA has punted P4 on markets before to gain more time for clarity. Domer has asked them too.

2

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Justifax

7 months ago

Imagine if a report came out that Israel attacked Iran at the deadline. And then a bit later there was a retraction. Is poly supposed to resolve YES? P4 to ensure no retractions is perfectly reasonable. There were no retractions on all these articles timestamped Sept 30th - https://pastebin.com/BcqXXTzH

0

Who will win the VP debate according to polls?

Justifax

7 months ago

guess

0

BenCM

7 months ago

What's your point?

Israel military response against Iran by Sunday?

Justifax

7 months ago

The attack won't happen until the price is below 5c. So if we keep it above 5c, then we protect the world from catastrophic nuclear war.

2

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

Justifax

7 months ago

i have to say the insiders at hbo are doing a very lame job of profiting off this market

1

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

Justifax

7 months ago

prepare to be rugged by uma.

0

cairokid

7 months ago

Very surprised Hal Finney fluctuations, crazy that community doesn't see it yet.

Israel military response against Iran by Sunday?

Justifax

7 months ago

It's a joke response to the post below. I don't believe holidays are a factor at the moment.

0

BaruchAsulin

7 months ago

And atill buy 985 Yea ahh...

Israel military response against Iran by Sunday?