#730
Rank
44
Comments
23
Likes Received
20
Likes Given
AfD banned before German election?
Kapii
3 months ago
Den etablierten Parteien haben wir 80 Jahre Demokratie zu verdanken. Nationalisten hingegeben sind Feinde der Demokratie, wie sich global unzaehlige Male gezeigt hat. Also nimm bitte die Realitaet zur Kenntnis.
13
Baumfreund
3 months ago
Wenn dieses Pack von Antidemkraten koennte, wuerden sie es sofort machen.
Will The Left make it into the Bundestag as a Fraktion?
Kapii
4 months ago
The market was built in believe that 3 direct seats are enough for a Fraktion and for resolving into "yes". You dont decide how it will resolve. So you should be in favor of clarification as well. ... Just clarify the rules. If it should really be a fraction now, fine. Then alter the rules into "...requires 5% of seats in parliament" and delete the useless mentioning of 3 direct mandates.
1
Marketpoll
4 months ago
Polymarket staff, please help/clarify. The definition of this market is unclear. No one here knows for sure how the market will resolve if The Left wins 3 direct mandates but does not enter the Bundestag as a Fraktion. This is because a Fraktion requires 5% of the seats. If the intention is for the market to resolve to Yes when The Left enters the Bundestag with 3 direct mandates, then the term 'Fraktion' needs to be removed or further clarified. For example, it could be defined as entering as a 'Fraktion or Group.' Alternatively, it could simply specify winning any seats in the Bundestag, as entering the Bundestag is only possible with 3 direct mandates. With 2 direct mandates, they would be excluded entirely.
Will The Left make it into the Bundestag as a Fraktion?
Kapii
4 months ago
It doesn't matter how you interpret things. The intention of this market is only about getting into Bundestag, not being a formally Fraktion. Thats what they intended to creat, as it is discussed on Discord that way when creating the market. So your interpretation is actually wrong. They just were not aware about german electoral law.
1
Marketpoll
4 months ago
Polymarket staff, please help/clarify. The definition of this market is unclear. No one here knows for sure how the market will resolve if The Left wins 3 direct mandates but does not enter the Bundestag as a Fraktion. This is because a Fraktion requires 5% of the seats. If the intention is for the market to resolve to Yes when The Left enters the Bundestag with 3 direct mandates, then the term 'Fraktion' needs to be removed or further clarified. For example, it could be defined as entering as a 'Fraktion or Group.' Alternatively, it could simply specify winning any seats in the Bundestag, as entering the Bundestag is only possible with 3 direct mandates. With 2 direct mandates, they would be excluded entirely.
Will The Left make it into the Bundestag as a Fraktion?
Kapii
4 months ago
This part of the rules states: "Under current German parliamentary rules, this requires the party to win at least 5% of the national vote or a minimum of three direct constituency seats." … So it clearly says that three direct seats are enough for "this." And "this" is defined earlier as "makes it into parliament" + "market resolves to Yes." … But this is simply incorrect, because three direct mandates are not sufficient to form a Fraktion, as we both know. Therefore, the rules are inconsistent.
2
0815g
4 months ago
quick summary based on recent comments;)) 1) 3x direct mandates are enough to a) close this market as yes and b) enter the bundestag as a fraction, meaning if a party has 3x direct mandates, additional 20 or more people follow them (meassured against their total result) forming a fraction in the Bundestag. 2) They already did this successfully after the last election, currently they are not a fraction anymore, because they gave up that fraction status themselves after Sarah Wagenknecht split up with them. So this is all about 3x direct mandates yes/no, as 5% are too far away :)
Will The Left make it into the Bundestag as a Fraktion?
Kapii
4 months ago
So you interpret the rules as that for Yes beeing a Fraktion is necessary. On Discord it seems that the intention of Polymarkt was the opposite. So it's unclear.
0
0815g
4 months ago
quick summary based on recent comments;)) 1) 3x direct mandates are enough to a) close this market as yes and b) enter the bundestag as a fraction, meaning if a party has 3x direct mandates, additional 20 or more people follow them (meassured against their total result) forming a fraction in the Bundestag. 2) They already did this successfully after the last election, currently they are not a fraction anymore, because they gave up that fraction status themselves after Sarah Wagenknecht split up with them. So this is all about 3x direct mandates yes/no, as 5% are too far away :)
Will The Left make it into the Bundestag as a Fraktion?
Kapii
4 months ago
Thank you. Indeed, this needs a clarification.
2
Marketpoll
4 months ago
Polymarket staff, please help/clarify. The definition of this market is unclear. No one here knows for sure how the market will resolve if The Left wins 3 direct mandates but does not enter the Bundestag as a Fraktion. This is because a Fraktion requires 5% of the seats. If the intention is for the market to resolve to Yes when The Left enters the Bundestag with 3 direct mandates, then the term 'Fraktion' needs to be removed or further clarified. For example, it could be defined as entering as a 'Fraktion or Group.' Alternatively, it could simply specify winning any seats in the Bundestag, as entering the Bundestag is only possible with 3 direct mandates. With 2 direct mandates, they would be excluded entirely.
Will The Left make it into the Bundestag as a Fraktion?
Kapii
4 months ago
For 5% of seats, more than 4,5% of vote share is needed. ... So is it enough for Yes if they win 3 direct districts and enter with 2% of total seats?
0
0815g
4 months ago
quick summary based on recent comments;)) 1) 3x direct mandates are enough to a) close this market as yes and b) enter the bundestag as a fraction, meaning if a party has 3x direct mandates, additional 20 or more people follow them (meassured against their total result) forming a fraction in the Bundestag. 2) They already did this successfully after the last election, currently they are not a fraction anymore, because they gave up that fraction status themselves after Sarah Wagenknecht split up with them. So this is all about 3x direct mandates yes/no, as 5% are too far away :)
Will The Left make it into the Bundestag as a Fraktion?
Kapii
4 months ago
Only with 3 direct mandates AND 5% of seats in the parliament you can form a fraction. Thats why the rules are incoherent.
1
0815g
4 months ago
quick summary based on recent comments;)) 1) 3x direct mandates are enough to a) close this market as yes and b) enter the bundestag as a fraction, meaning if a party has 3x direct mandates, additional 20 or more people follow them (meassured against their total result) forming a fraction in the Bundestag. 2) They already did this successfully after the last election, currently they are not a fraction anymore, because they gave up that fraction status themselves after Sarah Wagenknecht split up with them. So this is all about 3x direct mandates yes/no, as 5% are too far away :)
Will The Left make it into the Bundestag as a Fraktion?
Kapii
4 months ago
Has somebody asked on Discord how this market will resolve in case of 3 direct mandates, but below 5%?
0
Marketpoll
4 months ago
So, what now? Is it enough if they enter as a group with 3 direct mandates, or does it have to be as a Fraktion with 5%? That makes a huge difference. If 'yes' requires them to form a Fraktion, the fair price would be below 5 cents, as that is inconceivable without a major miracle.
Will The Left make it into the Bundestag as a Fraktion?
Kapii
4 months ago
If you see it that way, why did you buy yes then? You certainly dont believe that they'll get more than 5%.
0
Marketpoll
4 months ago
So, what now? Is it enough if they enter as a group with 3 direct mandates, or does it have to be as a Fraktion with 5%? That makes a huge difference. If 'yes' requires them to form a Fraktion, the fair price would be below 5 cents, as that is inconceivable without a major miracle.
Will The Left make it into the Bundestag as a Fraktion?
Kapii
5 months ago
The "new leaders" are completely unknown in the electorate. So they won't receive more votes than the party - which won't be significantly above 10%. See the results of the European election this year.
0
FFM
5 months ago
Historically, they almost always had at least 3 direct mandates. Also BSW is falling out of favor again recently, and SPD and Greens lost a lot of their traditionally left wing voters.
November 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)
Kapii
5 months ago
May I ask who liked your comment?
0
Ted777
5 months ago
what new information is causing this turbulence? Does someone know?
November 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)
Kapii
5 months ago
No. If they pushed it to 95% immediately, they would make less money. But it will be there soon. It's the same procedure every month.
0
Ted777
5 months ago
what new information is causing this turbulence? Does someone know?
November 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)
Kapii
5 months ago
Yes. The guys who started betting now always know. It's over. 1.30-34 will win.
0
Ted777
5 months ago
what new information is causing this turbulence? Does someone know?
Brazlian Grand Prix Winner
Kapii
6 months ago
He was lucky. But still incredibly fast. Nobody else could overtake like him. ... But without the red flag I guess it would have been "only" 3rd place.
3
Kapii
6 months ago
Wow, that was a surprise...
Brazlian Grand Prix Winner
Kapii
6 months ago
Wow, that was a surprise...
5
Who wins most votes in Brandenburg election?
Kapii
8 months ago
"They" ... Social democrats brought us democracy. AfD affiliates are destroying it wherever they can. But atm AfD is not yet able to manipulate elections in Germany.
1
432
8 months ago
it was clearly rigged as many regions which were pro AFD turned in the end red.They clearly added addiotional ballots which explains 74% voting
Who wins most votes in Brandenburg election?
Kapii
8 months ago
Nächste und einzige "Landtagswahl" in 2025 ist Hamburg. Aber da steht der Gewinner schon fest. Also erstmal längere Durststrecke.
0
Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?
Kapii
9 months ago
There is no easier task than successfully debating this idiot, with his always repetitive remarks and insults (except you are already half-dead). And on top of that, going to Fox News would be considered brave.
3
2024 July hottest on record?
Kapii
9 months ago
Maybe I will. But I don´t have cash atm.
1
betterbettor407
9 months ago
Buy more then
2024 July hottest on record?
Kapii
9 months ago
I sold all my Nos 2 days ago.
1
nononom
9 months ago
put money where your mouth is
2024 July hottest on record?
Kapii
9 months ago
Poor No-people still think they have a chance :( ... Everybody buying (big) above 30% knows.
4
Democratic Nominee 2024
Kapii
9 months ago
Polling for Harris is improving too fast. Winning has always made Democrats nervous. So her replacement becomes more and more likely. Obama just endorsed her to make her exit easier.
3
Democratic Nominee 2024
Kapii
9 months ago
That's exactly what he would say if he knew that Michelle was going to run. So we should see it as confirmation.
0
dmnc
9 months ago
Former President Barack Obama endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris to be the Democratic presidential nominee, saying in a statement with Michelle Obama, the former first lady, that they would “do everything we can to elect Kamala Harris the next president of the United States.”
Democratic Nominee 2024
Kapii
9 months ago
Thats the whole point. He endores Kamala, to make it seem as if he has nothing to do with Michelles decision to run.
0
Conqueefador
9 months ago
hmm what do we think of this? https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna163279
Democratic Nominee 2024
Kapii
9 months ago
Don´t wast your time on writing...buy shares! I would like to see you reach the 5M.
1
n/a
10 months ago
every big mike shareholder i've interacted with HAVE common sense, while it's apparent now the trolls have their minds cooked by the MSM
Will Max Verstappen win the 2024 Spanish Grand Prix?
Kapii
11 months ago
Disqualified after the race, because too fast race time.
2
lordprotector - 7340
11 months ago
Since when?
June 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)
Kapii
11 months ago
Why is Polymarket torturing its users so much? I´m afraid....
0
May 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)
Kapii
11 months ago
OK, cool, so 1.10-1.16 seems to be the winner. Just like last month, a few days before the release, the correct bracket suddenly spikes - despite the absence of any new information. Probably just a coincidence...
3
Will Israel invade Lebanon before September?
Kapii
11 months ago
Attack? Mayyybe. "Establish control over any portion of Lebanon" as required for Yes, seems unlikely.
0
0xaf
11 months ago
https://www.israelhayom.com/2024/06/03/report-hezbollah-get-warning-on-mid-june-israeli-attack/
May 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)
Kapii
11 months ago
No, I won't, because you're making a mistake and I don't want to be the one responsible for your losses. When your guess is 1.24, you need to buy the bracket including 1.24 and not a complete different one. You don't earn money by "even out your exposure" you lose it. You earn money by buying the bracket you think will win. I would suggest you put in a buy order in the 1.24 - 1.30 bracket, maybe up to 60%, and hope you get filled up.
0
aenews2
11 months ago
@Kapii fill me, dog I want to even out my exposure
May 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)
Kapii
11 months ago
No thanks. But I would buy your 18k 117-123 for 40 😀
0
aenews2
11 months ago
Left up a 11K bid for you to dump your shares
May 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)
Kapii
11 months ago
Cooler than April but by far the hottest may on record. But I don't have an exact estimate.
0
0x-JayBee
11 months ago
whats your estimate
May 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)
Kapii
11 months ago
Booooring...I'd like to lose some 10k as last month, but nothing is going on here 😴
1
Will Nikki Haley endorse Trump before June?
Kapii
11 months ago
I as well tell my friends what I vote for. But I never saw this as a request to them to copy my behavior.
2
Kapii
11 months ago
I'm not a native English speaker and I don't hold shares, but I'm quiet surprised about the outcome here. I don't think Nikki Haley saying she'll vote for Trump counts as an endorsement. It's like if I say I'm gonna drink alcohol tonight, it doesn't mean I'm telling everyone else to drink because it's best for everyone. It's just what I'm doing, not telling others they should do the same. An endorsement would be her telling everyone to vote for Trump.
Will Nikki Haley endorse Trump before June?
Kapii
11 months ago
I'm not a native English speaker and I don't hold shares, but I'm quiet surprised about the outcome here. I don't think Nikki Haley saying she'll vote for Trump counts as an endorsement. It's like if I say I'm gonna drink alcohol tonight, it doesn't mean I'm telling everyone else to drink because it's best for everyone. It's just what I'm doing, not telling others they should do the same. An endorsement would be her telling everyone to vote for Trump.
3
April 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)
Kapii
1 year ago
No. The 3 biggest buyers yesterday joined in may 24. pamplemousse, dumblecore2, wallaby
0
aenews2
1 year ago
It's very clear these are not new traders. They are alt accounts.
April 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)
Kapii
1 year ago
And by chance from traders who just joined.
0
aenews2
1 year ago
There is no insider trading, just people confident about their data analysis. Overconfident I'd say, at these prices. We'll probably land right over the mark.
April 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)
Kapii
1 year ago
From nothing to absolut confidence instantly?
0
aenews2
1 year ago
There is no insider trading, just people confident about their data analysis. Overconfident I'd say, at these prices. We'll probably land right over the mark.
April 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)
Kapii
1 year ago
why do you buy 1.31 at 80 cent, but say your estimate is 128?
0
aenews2
1 year ago
Looks like the NASA insiders finally blasted the market. Damn you Dr. Sato!
April 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)
Kapii
1 year ago
Huge insider trading going on here. People who joined in May 24 are trading only in this market and are all of a sudden buying 1.31 like crazy.
4
Israel military action against Iran by Friday?
Kapii
1 year ago
Iran says nothing happened. Israel says they didn't do anything. The USA suggests the drones probably originated from inside Iran. Still someone decided that this for sure is an Israeli attack on Iran. Why not wait for more information?
1
Eurovision Winner?
Kapii
1 year ago
In the last 8 years there were more than 20 gay contestants. 0 of them won.
0
Car
1 year ago
Switzerland singer is gay, so he will win. thats how Eurovision works.
Will 2024 have the hottest February on record?
Kapii
1 year ago
Didn´t feel that warm most of the time though
1