#98
Rank
181
Comments
118
Likes Received
124
Likes Given
Israel military response against Iran by Friday?
zynyz
7 months ago
Netanyahu on if Israel did it: Well I was born in a middle class family
2
zynyz
7 months ago
https://x.com/Catcanfight/status/1843424256735977533
Israel military response against Iran by Friday?
zynyz
7 months ago
https://x.com/Catcanfight/status/1843424256735977533
0
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
The resolution source for this market will be will be Kevin Chan solely.
1
zynyz
7 months ago
@YES gang: We have a majority in voters, but not in votes, because Kevin Chan and his risk capital own 50% of the votes. Truth or rules doesn't matter. Report the riggers. https://trustpilot.com/review/polymarket.com - https://www.producthunt.com/products/polymarket/reviews - https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8478-22 - https://forms.cftc.gov/Forms/Complaint/Screen1
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
50% more voters selected yes than no, but only 1 vote that decides the outcome
4
zynyz
7 months ago
@YES gang: We have a majority in voters, but not in votes, because Kevin Chan and his risk capital own 50% of the votes. Truth or rules doesn't matter. Report the riggers. https://trustpilot.com/review/polymarket.com - https://www.producthunt.com/products/polymarket/reviews - https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8478-22 - https://forms.cftc.gov/Forms/Complaint/Screen1
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
@YES gang: We have a majority in voters, but not in votes, because Kevin Chan and his risk capital own 50% of the votes. Truth or rules doesn't matter. Report the riggers. https://trustpilot.com/review/polymarket.com - https://www.producthunt.com/products/polymarket/reviews - https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8478-22 - https://forms.cftc.gov/Forms/Complaint/Screen1
10
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
Kevin Chan and his "risk labs" voted yes, majority of UMA voted no, but not relevant. Fair resolution has been determined right
2
zynyz
7 months ago
Kevin Chan is the "treasurer" of risk labs "We believe in aligned incentives"
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
Kevin Chan is the "treasurer" of risk labs "We believe in aligned incentives"
4
Phrank
7 months ago
Did a bit of digging and looks like the second and third largest voters (1.5 million uma each) are anonymous wallets that have only one transaction and were just recently funded by the Risk Labs main wallet (0x8180D59b7175d4064bDFA8138A58e9baBFFdA44a)… which means half of all NO votes were basically Kevin Chan and the Uma team. Crazy market manipulation, definitely illegal, and they didn’t even hide it that well haha
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
Is there even a coherent argument for resolving september "enter" yes, september "commence" no, and before november "commence" yes before this market was over?
2
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
Just heard back from SBF regulators dont care when people get scammed
1
Secret14thKey
7 months ago
Just heard back from CFTC and they say they need to see at least 1000 more comments from Yes holders before they intervene
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
Every side of every bet: I cant believe the people on the other side they are so dumb suffering from confirmation bias
2
mr.ozi
7 months ago
Already after the first vote, a few of us have been telling you that it's pretty much done already, but many of you did not want to listen. In addition to the strong logic of this going P1 after P4 was declared at first, we also had market rules (even if poorly formulated), which are more nuanced than the vibes you'll get from the news headlines or Wikipedia headlines, that you chose to rest your case on. There was another market for entry, which was created for the possibility of Israeli raids, but you treated this market as if it was about the entry. This market, however, was created for a possibility of an Israeli army invading Lebanon (think infantry and tanks, not a 3-hour overnight raids by small special ops teams). As per all the evidence, footage, geolocated imagery, and detailed reports - small numbers of tanks and infantry entered Lebanon first on Oct 2. That's why this market should've resolved No, and it did. Rather than complaining, I'd suggest taking a step back, and integrating possible learnings from this experience, especially around taking news headlines as a measure of what happened on the ground.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
Not the point, the point is conspiracy to manipulate markets
1
AcidBurn95
7 months ago
Even withouth Kevin Chan the vote would had tourned to No. Check the numbers. Chan gave 3Mil votes. The total number is 17Mil. His part is 17%. The No vote without Chan is still larger then the Yes Vote.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
Dont see a date? Should be 3 dates as there was 2 disputes
0
PolyRig-Fried
7 months ago
@YES gang: We have a majority in voters, but not in votes, because all you need is a fat stake in UMA. Truth or rules doesn't matter. Report the riggers. https://x.com/primo_data/status/1843284148649406842 https://dump.li/image/get/d3528a90ed770ae0.png https://dune.com/primo_data/uma-voter-polymarket-disputes?market_tc8b8e=Will+Israel+invade+Lebanon+in+September%3F&time_td376e=1728001850 https://trustpilot.com/review/polymarket.com - https://x.com/kevinchan2020/status/1839522928565912048 - https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8478-22 - https://forms.cftc.gov/Forms/Complaint/Screen1
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
If you dont live in USA you can start an arbitration against them they pay all arbitration fees and all their own attorneys fees regardless of outcome
4
Phoenix777
7 months ago
Since the polymarket lets this cheating take place then it is not the riggers, but POLYMARKETS responsibility that they let this be like that, they are not providing a safe betting ground, correct company would be dragged to court for this kind of uncontrolled /unsafe system that robs peoples money
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
What dates did Kevin Chan cast his votes Yes on the November market during the 3 disputes?
1
PolyRig-Fried
7 months ago
@YES gang: We have a majority in voters, but not in votes, because all you need is a fat stake in UMA. Truth or rules doesn't matter. Report the riggers. https://x.com/primo_data/status/1843284148649406842 https://dump.li/image/get/d3528a90ed770ae0.png https://dune.com/primo_data/uma-voter-polymarket-disputes?market_tc8b8e=Will+Israel+invade+Lebanon+in+September%3F&time_td376e=1728001850 https://trustpilot.com/review/polymarket.com - https://x.com/kevinchan2020/status/1839522928565912048 - https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8478-22 - https://forms.cftc.gov/Forms/Complaint/Screen1
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
Here is why it matters: https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8478-22
1
zynyz
7 months ago
https://forms.cftc.gov/Forms/Complaint/Screen1 1 min to fill out copy this: https://i.imgur.com/AJcz0UY.png The issue concerns how Polymarket resolves all of its markets, which are largely manipulated by UMA in ways that appear to favor profitability over fairness or accuracy. UMA's resolution process often leads to outcomes that do not reflect reality, with markets being resolved incorrectly. Polymarket is aware of this, as they have had to step in on several occasions to overturn resolutions or 50/50 refund markets due to widespread dissatisfaction and apparent manipulation. Polymarket is actively working on changing their protocols because they recognize that UMA's resolution process is a major issue that has led to customers being misled or scammed. This is not an isolated incident but a systemic problem, and despite their efforts to address it, many users are still being negatively impacted by the unreliable market resolutions.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
https://forms.cftc.gov/Forms/Complaint/Screen1 1 min to fill out copy this: https://i.imgur.com/AJcz0UY.png The issue concerns how Polymarket resolves all of its markets, which are largely manipulated by UMA in ways that appear to favor profitability over fairness or accuracy. UMA's resolution process often leads to outcomes that do not reflect reality, with markets being resolved incorrectly. Polymarket is aware of this, as they have had to step in on several occasions to overturn resolutions or 50/50 refund markets due to widespread dissatisfaction and apparent manipulation. Polymarket is actively working on changing their protocols because they recognize that UMA's resolution process is a major issue that has led to customers being misled or scammed. This is not an isolated incident but a systemic problem, and despite their efforts to address it, many users are still being negatively impacted by the unreliable market resolutions.
2
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
https://www.producthunt.com/products/polymarket/reviews
1
PolyRig-Fried
7 months ago
@YES gang, all you need to know, report the riggers: https://trustpilot.com/review/polymarket.com - https://dump.li/image/get/6f2fe16696f52436.png - https://dune.com/primo_data/uma-voter-polymarket-disputes?market_tc8b8e=Will+Israel+invade+Lebanon+in+September%3F&time_td376e=1728001850 - https://x.com/kevinchan2020/status/1839522928565912048 - https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8478-22 - https://forms.cftc.gov/Forms/Complaint/Screen1
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
Heres why it matters when CFTC gets complaints: https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8478-22
0
zynyz
7 months ago
https://forms.cftc.gov/Forms/Complaint/Screen1 https://i.imgur.com/AJcz0UY.png 1 min to fill out: The issue concerns how Polymarket resolves all of its markets, which are largely manipulated by UMA in ways that appear to favor profitability over fairness or accuracy. UMA's resolution process often leads to outcomes that do not reflect reality, with markets being resolved incorrectly. Polymarket is aware of this, as they have had to step in on several occasions to overturn resolutions or 50/50 refund markets due to widespread dissatisfaction and apparent manipulation. Polymarket is actively working on changing their protocols because they recognize that UMA's resolution process is a major issue that has led to customers being misled or scammed. This is not an isolated incident but a systemic problem, and despite their efforts to address it, many users are still being negatively impacted by the unreliable market resolutions.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
https://forms.cftc.gov/Forms/Complaint/Screen1 https://i.imgur.com/AJcz0UY.png 1 min to fill out: The issue concerns how Polymarket resolves all of its markets, which are largely manipulated by UMA in ways that appear to favor profitability over fairness or accuracy. UMA's resolution process often leads to outcomes that do not reflect reality, with markets being resolved incorrectly. Polymarket is aware of this, as they have had to step in on several occasions to overturn resolutions or 50/50 refund markets due to widespread dissatisfaction and apparent manipulation. Polymarket is actively working on changing their protocols because they recognize that UMA's resolution process is a major issue that has led to customers being misled or scammed. This is not an isolated incident but a systemic problem, and despite their efforts to address it, many users are still being negatively impacted by the unreliable market resolutions.
2
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
Polymarket is not offshore https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8478-22
0
Secret14thKey
7 months ago
just called the CFTC and told them I've lost money betting illegally on an offshore gambling site and want a refund. They said they'd get back to me soon
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
This particulary market is not relevant for CFTC. Its about how the resolution of all markets are mostly a scam by UMA. Polymarket has had to step in and overturn markets in the past or 50/50 them and are working on changing protocols because they know its a huge issue.
1
zynyz
7 months ago
1 min to fill out: https://forms.cftc.gov/Forms/Complaint/Screen1 https://i.imgur.com/AJcz0UY.png Polymarket resolves its markets based on how UMA votes, which appears to prioritize profitability rather than aligning with reality or facts. For example, in the market "Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?" voter Kevin Chan, representing UMA, voted Yes with 31.2% of total votes, while for the market "Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?" the same voter, Kevin Chan, voted No with 32.4% of total votes. These contradictory outcomes show a lack of consistency or basis in reality. Polymarket has admitted this issue but fails to address customer complaints, allowing new users to get scammed without resolution or intervention.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
"Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?" Resolved Yes
0
zynyz
7 months ago
1 min to fill out: https://forms.cftc.gov/Forms/Complaint/Screen1 https://i.imgur.com/AJcz0UY.png Polymarket resolves its markets based on how UMA votes, which appears to prioritize profitability rather than aligning with reality or facts. For example, in the market "Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?" voter Kevin Chan, representing UMA, voted Yes with 31.2% of total votes, while for the market "Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?" the same voter, Kevin Chan, voted No with 32.4% of total votes. These contradictory outcomes show a lack of consistency or basis in reality. Polymarket has admitted this issue but fails to address customer complaints, allowing new users to get scammed without resolution or intervention.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
They didnt see the IDF announcing a commencement of a military offensive? they should check the internet
0
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
The UN peacekeepers, one of the neutral parties in this conflict, said on October 1st that they had not seen an invasion, and then on Wednesday October 2nd, they indicated that they had seen one.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
Submission Complaint Form Confirmation Number 2410-0709-0515-68 Submission Date and Time 10/7/2024 9:05:15 AM Eastern Standard Time Post yours
0
zynyz
7 months ago
1 min to fill out: https://forms.cftc.gov/Forms/Complaint/Screen1 https://i.imgur.com/AJcz0UY.png Polymarket resolves its markets based on how UMA votes, which appears to prioritize profitability rather than aligning with reality or facts. For example, in the market "Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?" voter Kevin Chan, representing UMA, voted Yes with 31.2% of total votes, while for the market "Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?" the same voter, Kevin Chan, voted No with 32.4% of total votes. These contradictory outcomes show a lack of consistency or basis in reality. Polymarket has admitted this issue but fails to address customer complaints, allowing new users to get scammed without resolution or intervention.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
1 min to fill out: https://forms.cftc.gov/Forms/Complaint/Screen1 https://i.imgur.com/AJcz0UY.png Polymarket resolves its markets based on how UMA votes, which appears to prioritize profitability rather than aligning with reality or facts. For example, in the market "Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?" voter Kevin Chan, representing UMA, voted Yes with 31.2% of total votes, while for the market "Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?" the same voter, Kevin Chan, voted No with 32.4% of total votes. These contradictory outcomes show a lack of consistency or basis in reality. Polymarket has admitted this issue but fails to address customer complaints, allowing new users to get scammed without resolution or intervention.
4
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
https://forms.cftc.gov/Forms/Complaint/Screen1
1
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November? voter Kevin Chan, UMA vote Yes pct_of_total_votes 31.2% Will Israel invade Lebanon in September? voter Kevin Chan, UMA vote No pct_of_total_votes 32.4%
3
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
How did Kevin Chan vote in the "before november" market?
0
PolyRig-Fried
7 months ago
These is the distribution of votes atm: https://dump.li/image/get/6f2fe16696f52436.png
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
JustKen: Guys we rigged it a long time ago, your fault for still thinking its not rigged
4
🤺JustPunched
7 months ago
I feel like I was very clear and consistent and posted quite often that yes was very likely to lose. Before the votes were revealed, yes was trading at $0.60 for hours
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
hard to take a market serious that votes reverse in "in september" and "before November" market
1
mona.lisa
7 months ago
I only just learned Kevin Chan owns 32% of the UMA votes. I don't think I'll take PolyMarket seriously now.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
at 70 cents yes, yes side had the facts, but no side had https://i.imgur.com/PDxraUt.png
1
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
Well at least im not Chad
1
Iran Nuke in 2024?
zynyz
7 months ago
If iran nukes us and we all die polymarket better pay up in the after life
3
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
warning to new people who think facts matter: they dont, UMA is a pure scam
5
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
Your right but not relevant to how the market will resolve, its a scam
3
HsB34sgg
7 months ago
All of the WORLD'S #1 SOURCES ALL AGREE %100 that Israel commences a military offensive intended to establish control over a portion of Lebanon on September 30th. This market is 100% YES!!!
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
Ground truth is 100% irrelevant. UMA "truth oracle" self acknowledge method of resolving markets is by playing a liars strategy game and trying to scam each other and polymarkets new users https://i.imgur.com/ohtkV6N.png https://i.imgur.com/ohtkV6N.png
3
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
No holders: send this to polymarket support https://i.imgur.com/jVnYKhf.png and ask them to redo the voting or 50/50 the market. Commit-reveal is designed to keep votes confidential during the commit phase to prevent influence or manipulation by other participants. Sharing your vote publicly before the reveal phase undermines this confidentiality and compromise the integrity of the voting process.
0
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
In order to determine the ground truth, UMA says you should play a liars strategy game about which way your voting for before during the time votes are supposed to be kept confidential to not manipulate the market
0
zynyz
7 months ago
UMA encourages rigging the vote, they consider themselves a strategy game where people trying to rug each other, not a "truth seeking oracle" https://i.imgur.com/ohtkV6N.png
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
UMA encourages rigging the vote, they consider themselves a strategy game where people trying to rug each other, not a "truth seeking oracle" https://i.imgur.com/ohtkV6N.png
3
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
You can trust UMA for a fair resolution because rigging the vote "is not encouraged"
0
zynyz
7 months ago
No holders: send this to polymarket support https://i.imgur.com/jVnYKhf.png and ask them to redo the voting or 50/50 the market. Commit-reveal is designed to keep votes confidential during the commit phase to prevent influence or manipulation by other participants. Sharing your vote publicly before the reveal phase undermines this confidentiality and compromise the integrity of the voting process.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
Here is how much UMA cares about having a fair platform and following their own terms of service https://i.imgur.com/CAx1Xeg.png
1
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
Polymarket needs to at the very least reset the vote and issue a clarification on "market will be official confirmation by Hezbollah and Israel" to state what happens if one source confirms and the other denies, it should be 50/50 at the bare minimum if you change the "and" to an "or"
1
zynyz
7 months ago
No holders: send this to polymarket support https://i.imgur.com/jVnYKhf.png and ask them to redo the voting or 50/50 the market. Commit-reveal is designed to keep votes confidential during the commit phase to prevent influence or manipulation by other participants. Sharing your vote publicly before the reveal phase undermines this confidentiality and compromise the integrity of the voting process.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
theres a ton of new users that take the rules as written and dont understand the whale rig voting system, thats why
2
emilio369x
7 months ago
Wtf is the point in having two of the same bets and then one going yes and the other going no.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
Polymarket terms need to say "Any market that is at least 0.1% questionable will be decided in favor of whales who will rig the vote"
2
BrazilianJoker
7 months ago
Let's start tweeting on Polymarket's own Twitter profile (or would it be scammarket). https://twitter.com/polymarket
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
lol master-bettor has nothing to do then to sit here all day to make sure he gets $10
0
ANONYMOUS.
7 months ago
To UMA support ticket Discord:
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
UMA doesnt give a fuck they know they are a scam they just hope Polymarket keeps using them regardless
3
ANONYMOUS.
7 months ago
To UMA support ticket Discord:
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
No holders: send this to polymarket support https://i.imgur.com/jVnYKhf.png and ask them to redo the voting or 50/50 the market. Commit-reveal is designed to keep votes confidential during the commit phase to prevent influence or manipulation by other participants. Sharing your vote publicly before the reveal phase undermines this confidentiality and compromise the integrity of the voting process.
9
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
Here is the vote being rigged, send this to polymarket support: https://i.imgur.com/jVnYKhf.png
0
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
its supposed to be independent voters coming to a conclusion, in this market that did not happen: https://i.imgur.com/jVnYKhf.png
1
gmat
7 months ago
So we have all those rules and sources to define the outcome and in the end it's decided by VOTES? Really?
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
No holders: send this to polymarket support and ask for them to cancel this vote and step in on the fraud: https://i.imgur.com/jVnYKhf.png
3
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
Not allowed according to polymarket TOS section 5: "violation the integrity of trading markets" and "Use the Services in any manner that could interfere with, disrupt, negatively affect, or inhibit other users from fully enjoying the Services..."
1
Phat.
7 months ago
Apparently its allowed, This guys so obnoxious and thinks hes the shit cuz he has voting powers. Some people cant handle power. None the less its tasteless to act like that even its allowed
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
The commit-reveal scheme is designed to keep votes confidential during the commit phase to prevent influence or manipulation by other participants. Sharing your vote publicly and writing "vote like this" and "just follow me u will be fine" before the reveal phase undermines this confidentiality and compromise the integrity of the voting process.
0
zynyz
7 months ago
Here is the vote being rigged, send this to polymarket support: https://i.imgur.com/UckwBzM.png
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
Here is the vote being rigged, send this to polymarket support: https://i.imgur.com/UckwBzM.png
3
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
No holders: message Polymarket support now, vote needs to be redone regardless of outcome - Send support this proof: https://i.imgur.com/8zb4ofV.png The commit-reveal scheme is designed to keep votes confidential during the commit phase to prevent influence or manipulation by other participants. Sharing your vote publicly and writing "just follow me u will be fine" before the reveal phase undermines this confidentiality and compromise the integrity of the voting process.
6
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
Reveal your vote so you can dump quick good idea
2
aenews2
7 months ago
97.6% P2 Yes
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
50/50 But how will the yes holders get a 1% bond?
2
Waifu Hunter
7 months ago
https://imgur.com/a/dEPh5Lj 2% early request 54% yes 43.39% 50-50 !!!!
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
Why do you care if No sells if your so confident the market will resolve Yes
0
Car
7 months ago
Your NO shares are going to expire worthless in a few hours
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
just 1 more week DIAMOND HANDS free 1%
0
BennyS
7 months ago
I’m leaving
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
Easy 3% bro just 1 more week
0
aenews2
7 months ago
Seriously? Dump your bags now. Stop holding worthless shares.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
Buy more, you only have your entire PNL on the line on being able to scam this market
1
aenews2
7 months ago
Seriously? Dump your bags now. Stop holding worthless shares.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
Just 1 more week bro easy 1%
1
Will143
7 months ago
So why the resolution requests made later being voted as an early request?
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
No holders: message Polymarket support now, vote needs to be redone regardless of outcome - Send support this proof: https://i.imgur.com/8zb4ofV.pngTthe commit-reveal scheme is designed to keep votes confidential during the commit phase to prevent influence or manipulation by other participants. Sharing your vote publicly and writing "just follow me u will be fine" before the reveal phase undermines this confidentiality and compromise the integrity of the voting process.
6
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
You all have to be in their together though, anyone bails and its over
0
zynyz
7 months ago
Yes holders just 1 more week to keep the scam going and you get a free 1%
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
Yes holders just 1 more week to keep the scam going and you get a free 1%
4
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
OCT 2
0
Jurad0x
7 months ago
They entered in October 1st not in September.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
Imagine holding yes for another week hoping the scam will work to get 1%
5
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
WE DID IT BOYZ
4
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
Polymarket Prohibited Activity (Section 5): "Engage in activity that violates any Applicable Law, rule, or regulation concerning the integrity of trading markets, including (but not limited to) the manipulative tactics commonly known as spoofing and wash trading." "Use the Services in any manner that could interfere with, disrupt, negatively affect, or inhibit other users from fully enjoying the Services..."
1
zynyz
7 months ago
Send support this proof: https://i.imgur.com/8zb4ofV.png Sharing your vote publicly and writing "just follow me u will be fine" before the reveal phase undermines this confidentiality and compromise the integrity of the voting process.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
They have to cheat because reality resolves to NO
2
zynyz
7 months ago
Send support this proof: https://i.imgur.com/8zb4ofV.png Sharing your vote publicly and writing "just follow me u will be fine" before the reveal phase undermines this confidentiality and compromise the integrity of the voting process.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
The commit-reveal scheme is designed to keep votes confidential during the commit phase to prevent influence or manipulation by other participants
2
zynyz
7 months ago
Send support this proof: https://i.imgur.com/8zb4ofV.png Sharing your vote publicly and writing "just follow me u will be fine" before the reveal phase undermines this confidentiality and compromise the integrity of the voting process.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
Send support this proof: https://i.imgur.com/8zb4ofV.png Sharing your vote publicly and writing "just follow me u will be fine" before the reveal phase undermines this confidentiality and compromise the integrity of the voting process.
2
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
aenews is a known fraud scammer and is at it again
0
n/a
7 months ago
inb4 jail. Aenews already doxxed in 2022. Sure the case is juicy.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
Write in now they already cheated
0
proxycodone
7 months ago
Write in support if YES wins. The cheating whales must not win.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
Message polymarket support to reveal this scam, the scam is the only way YES wins so they have to do it
1
zynyz
7 months ago
Yes whales are revealing screenshots of their votes early during the mandatory hidden period breaking the rules of both Polymarket and UMA, message Polymarket support for them to step in
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
This is the whale rig process, breaks the rules and cheats the whole system, not allowed "the commit-reveal scheme is designed to keep votes confidential during the commit phase to prevent influence or manipulation by other participants"
3
zynyz
7 months ago
Yes whales are revealing screenshots of their votes early during the mandatory hidden period breaking the rules of both Polymarket and UMA, message Polymarket support for them to step in
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
Yes whales are revealing screenshots of their votes early during the mandatory hidden period breaking the rules of both Polymarket and UMA, message Polymarket support for them to step in
4
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
The yes side pretty much just says: were the whales we win regardless of the reality
8
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
Decent chance one of the big yes whales got caught trying to rig the votes: https://discord.com/channels/718590743446290492/718593111147937823
3
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
In 4 hours they are going to have to hold the risky bag another 2 days
1
fafafafafafafafafafafafafaffafafafa
7 months ago
they're all going to be positive in 4 hours
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
When 1 of the 4 positive sell for a gain the rest are getting rugged
0
zynyz
7 months ago
Only 4 out of 15 top Yes holders are still positive on their position
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
Only 4 out of 15 top Yes holders are still positive on their position
0
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
Check his profile, he is smart thats why
1
yevh97
7 months ago
Pence big scammer
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
Hes slowly buying up No shares
1
yevh97
7 months ago
Pence big scammer
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
First signs of entry Oct 2 https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-iran-missile-attack-middle-east-10-02-24-intl-hnk#cm1s0jkww00003b6rij59ajfb
0
zynyz
7 months ago
If only market condition was "Israeli military announced that they will physically enter Lebanese territory" rather than "Israeli military personnel physically enter Lebanese territory" Yes would win
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
If only market condition was "Israeli military announced that they will physically enter Lebanese territory" rather than "Israeli military personnel physically enter Lebanese territory" Yes would win
0
zynyz
7 months ago
No Yes holder can answer the question: What time did they enter and at what location? They only point to the IDF announcement. I hereby announce I am invading every country today
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
That was announcement
0
jemjmee
7 months ago
the IDF entered lebanese territory at 3am october 1st 2024 so technically they did not enter in september.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
No Yes holder can answer the question: What time did they enter and at what location? They only point to the IDF announcement. I hereby announce I am invading every country today
0
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
Israeli non combative special ops have been in Lebanon every day for 20 years
0
Will143
7 months ago
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September? Generating... Israel has launched a "limited, localized" ground operation in southern Lebanon, targeting the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah. The operation, which began on September 30, involves Israeli special forces conducting targeted ground raids, supported by aerial bombardments and artillery fire. Despite Hezbollah's denial of Israeli troops entering Lebanon, Israeli officials confirm the initiation of these ground operations, aiming to neutralize immediate threats from Hezbollah near the border. The escalation follows weeks of intense airstrikes and the death of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, resulting in significant casualties and displacement in Lebanon. POWERED BY Perplexity
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
The non-combative special forces raids have been ongoing since January: https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-782338
0
Will143
7 months ago
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September? Generating... Israel has launched a "limited, localized" ground operation in southern Lebanon, targeting the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah. The operation, which began on September 30, involves Israeli special forces conducting targeted ground raids, supported by aerial bombardments and artillery fire. Despite Hezbollah's denial of Israeli troops entering Lebanon, Israeli officials confirm the initiation of these ground operations, aiming to neutralize immediate threats from Hezbollah near the border. The escalation follows weeks of intense airstrikes and the death of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, resulting in significant casualties and displacement in Lebanon. POWERED BY Perplexity
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
Reuters and others all report the same, there is the media consensus
0
PolymaREKT
7 months ago
https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-822732
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
Spoiler its going to be P4 you will have to hold Yes and hope it doesnt tank for an other 2 days+
0
fafafafafafafafafafafafafaffafafafa
7 months ago
Vote reveal in 4 hours
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
Here is the media consensus rebuttal out the window Oct 2 "the FIRST signs of Israel’s anticipated ground invasion" https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-iran-missile-attack-middle-east-10-02-24-intl-hnk#cm1s0jkww00003b6rij59ajfb
1
zynyz
7 months ago
1 article answers this market: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hezbollah-media-chief-says-no-israeli-troops-have-entered-lebanon-2024-10-01/
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
1 article answers this market: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hezbollah-media-chief-says-no-israeli-troops-have-entered-lebanon-2024-10-01/
7
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
If Car is the first whale to unload he is the smartest of the bunch
1
Phat.
7 months ago
Car sold 100 Yes at 97.0¢ ($97) and the unloading begins, Clearly the discord sentiment is no where near p2
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
In 5 hours we get to wait another 2 days since resolution was started before IDF announcement and Hesbollah denial
0
Kavim
7 months ago
Guys, In 5hrs we will know the results?
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
We have the answer from hezbollah and CNN who reports first border breach Oct 2
2
Myh
7 months ago
guys lets constructive talk do we have any proofs from israel or Hezbollah that israel entered lebanon? -NO we have just answer from Hezbollah that they didnt
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
Your only down 2% so far not too bad
1
Talophex
7 months ago
Y’all sure yap an awful lot for having nothing to say
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
the non-combative special forces raids have been ongoing since january: https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-782338
0
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
https://x.com/AlMayadeenLive/status/1840967407671631955 sucks to be debunked by your own source
0
HsB34sgg
7 months ago
Timely confirmation of the “COMMENCEMENT OF A MILITARY OFFENSIVE” as per the rules. https://x.com/AlMayadeenLive/status/1840780570378248414
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
"intended to establish control over any portion of Lebanon"
1
x3x3
7 months ago
Ah yes, the casual 400m raids where 7 soldiers already died even after the intense air strikes before.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
"intended to establish control over any portion of Lebanon" You mind-read their intent how?
0
HsB34sgg
7 months ago
Timely confirmation of the “COMMENCEMENT OF A MILITARY OFFENSIVE” as per the rules. https://x.com/AlMayadeenLive/status/1840780570378248414
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
CNN 1 hour ago: The fighting on Lebanese territory was a major development, the FIRST signs of Israel’s anticipated ground invasion of the southern part of the country. Lebanon’s army has said that Israeli troops forced breached the border on Wednesday, advancing around 400 meters (around 440 yards) before withdrawing.
1
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
CNN 1 hour ago: The fighting on Lebanese territory was a major development, the FIRST signs of Israel’s anticipated ground invasion of the southern part of the country. Lebanon’s army has said that Israeli troops forced breached the border on Wednesday, advancing around 400 meters (around 440 yards) before withdrawing.
5
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
OCT 2: "BOOTS ON THE GROUND Watch as Israeli troops are seen in Lebanon for FIRST time since invasion as commandos cross border for Hezbollah raids" https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/30814563/israeli-troops-lebanon-commandos-hezbollah-raids/
1
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
The bet is over: OCT 2: "BOOTS ON THE GROUND Watch as Israeli troops are seen in Lebanon for FIRST time since invasion as commandos cross border for Hezbollah raids" https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/30814563/israeli-troops-lebanon-commandos-hezbollah-raids/
6
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
Stupid to buy Yes now the price will be cheaper by the hour
0
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
Yes flood of new account No buyers coming in, congrats on being the first Bond holder in history to be down money on their bond
2
kekkone
7 months ago
We’re going to have a lot of fresh capital increasing bond yields from now on 🥰
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
If you consider non-combative Israeli special ops being inside Lebanon, this has happened every month for the past 20 years
4
PoopLord2000
7 months ago
P1, intelligence gathering is not a combat operation, otherwise the United States has conducted combat operations against every allied nation revealed by Snowden.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
Why are you not buying more yes? Its cheaper now than when you bought before
2
Master-bettor
7 months ago
NO holders, please buy more NO, literally free money!!!!
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
That one resolved so fairly that the only argument people have is to use that market, no argument regarding the rules that clearly resolve to No
0
BuckMySalls
7 months ago
this is simple. all whales and sharp bettors are on the side where an equivalent market already resolved yes, all the community takeover buyers are on the other side and pumping their shares before the expiry date. in the next few hours, they will need to start taking profits or let the shares go to zero because thats how this game works.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
Primary condition resolves to No so secondary doesnt matter, but there is no media consensus regardless: "A Lebanese army source said Tuesday that the force had seen no Israeli ground incursion, after United Nations peacekeepers and Hezbollah also denied any ground incursion had begun." "We have not observed any penetration by Israeli enemy forces into Lebanese territory," the Lebanese army source told AFP
0
Shayku
7 months ago
Not quite, they could argue 'media consensus'.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
People arguing Yes because the small November market resolved incorrectly with no disputes means they don't have any arguments related to the actual rules of this market.
2
BuckMySalls
7 months ago
this is simple. all whales and sharp bettors are on the side where an equivalent market already resolved yes, all the community takeover buyers are on the other side and pumping their shares before the expiry date. in the next few hours, they will need to start taking profits or let the shares go to zero because thats how this game works.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
This 1 article settles the market 100%: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hezbollah-media-chief-says-no-israeli-troops-have-entered-lebanon-2024-10-01/
6
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
They confirmed IDF announcement of invasion, no border breach was confirmed, many media outlets have a consensus on no border breach
2
HsB34sgg
7 months ago
A CONSENSUS of credible reporting!!! By 8:59 PM ET, September 30th, Reuters, The Guardian, Forbes, The Telegraph, NPR, the Independent, the BBC, The Times of Israel, ABC, NBC, Washington Post, Fox News, New York Post, Daily Mail, Al Jazeera, and many more ALL confirmed the invasion. Both Israel, and the IDF then confirmed the invasion within the timeframe specified in the rules. Israel had initially ask for a media blackout, but had to confirm given the flood of media reports.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
After P4 they will have a week to slowly unload their shares
3
Phat.
7 months ago
Now the YES holders Chasing P4 because they know they are trapped. Easy win for NO holders
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
Car buy more Yes, its cheaper now then when you bought before
0
Car
7 months ago
Im sweating
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
open in incognito mode to see
1
ANONYMOUS.
7 months ago
It says it's still active on my profile (with 3 comments and 9 upvotes, 380 views).
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
Congrats your plan of losing money on your trade is working
0
debased
7 months ago
I was countin on dummies to take it lower and you did
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
Bro they [removed] the post, go to your profile to see
3
ANONYMOUS.
7 months ago
Get more attention on this WSB post guys, this will be the straw that breaks the whale's back. UPVOTE and share! https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/s/p7HvE7zneu
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
Yeah I would say the same thing if I was pump and dumping Yes shares basedd sold 1,227 Yes at 98.0¢ ($1,202) 16h ago basedd basedd sold 2,000 Yes at 98.0¢ ($1,960)
0
debased
7 months ago
the dummy thinks this is a memecoin. hold hands and manifest it goes higher
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
People looking to buy Yes can get a discount by waiting, it is getting cheaper by the minute with flood of new accounts buying No
2
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
Yes we know that their only hope is to rig it
1
McLarry
7 months ago
All no-holders should know that all whales are well connected in Discord with the Uma whales. They know each other, they appreciate each other and they help each other.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
Flood of new account No buyers does that it seems
0
zynyz
7 months ago
People looking to buy Yes can get a discount by waiting, it is getting cheaper by the minute
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
People looking to buy Yes can get a discount by waiting, it is getting cheaper by the minute
1
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
aenews2 bet his whole PNL on Yes and is now negative on it, what a joke. If one of the other big whales sells be for he does he is done for
4
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
Should have waited, every minute you wait the Yes side gets cheaper
0
fafafafafafafafafafafafafaffafafafa
7 months ago
I like betting against crypto people. They think that whether something occurred or not is like a shitcoin they can pump by mass buying.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
4 cents away from 50 pence being underwater on his 600k bet thats the only thing holding Yes in place
0
zynyz
7 months ago
6H chart looks beautiful, new flood of No buyers coming in, will be much harder to rig soon
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
Lol guy gets goated into rebuying by the comments section, that's how you know this is a pure fish
0
fafafafafafafafafafafafafaffafafafa
7 months ago
I like betting against crypto people. They think that whether something occurred or not is like a shitcoin they can pump by mass buying.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
6H chart looks beautiful, new flood of No buyers coming in, will be much harder to rig soon
2
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
Thats what I would say too if im trying to unload my position while literally not buying anything else
3
fafafafafafafafafafafafafaffafafafa
7 months ago
I like betting against crypto people. They think that whether something occurred or not is like a shitcoin they can pump by mass buying.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
You mean you like selling, you just sold 1/4th of your yes position
1
fafafafafafafafafafafafafaffafafafa
7 months ago
I like betting against crypto people. They think that whether something occurred or not is like a shitcoin they can pump by mass buying.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
Primary condition definitively fails after Hezbollah strong denial so their only plan is to rig it
1
Phat.
7 months ago
If they Rig this the whole UMA model will appear bs and PM will look so bad. They wont risk the business to make 50 pence happy
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
Flood of new accounts buying No is hilarious
1
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
"commences a military offensive" is not the same as "announce a commencment of a military offensive" What date/time did the "invasion" happen? What part of Lebanon
1
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
yourrapist1776 sold 11,608 Yes at 98.0¢ ($11,376) Slytherin sold 20,253 Yes at 98.3¢ ($19,900) AXX sold 10,900 Yes at 98.8¢ ($10,772) Just wait till the 1 of the 5 big holders start selling its going to dump fast
1
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
2024AD sold 4,132 Yes at 98.0¢ ($4,051)
0
zynyz
7 months ago
Once the first large Yes holder bails this week the rest will fall like dominos. Even if you believe Israel special ops entered with intent for combat 70 times but failed each time, there are no confirmed ground/non-air raids in September. First criteria resolves to No so 2nd is not required.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
Once the first large Yes holder bails this week the rest will fall like dominos. Even if you believe Israel special ops entered with intent for combat 70 times but failed each time, there are no confirmed ground/non-air raids in September. First criteria resolves to No so 2nd is not required.
4
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
Good luck with the rigging
0
Master-bettor
7 months ago
1% in a week is still pretty decent return lol
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
Your prize at the end of holding your risky $300k position for 2 days will be to wait for another week
3
TimeQuestion
7 months ago
2 days and 2 hours. And I'm getting 1.5%!'
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
Enjoy holding your $500k Yes positions for another week for the hopes to gain 1% by rigging the vote after the "Too Early" vote tomorrow
6
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
The current review will end up being "Too early" because IDF statement came afterwards, Yes holder's will be forced to hold their large risky positions for quite a long time
1
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
if only that was a market settling condition
0
Car
7 months ago
its funny to me how the whole world is talking about Israel entering Lebanon to kill Hezbollah terrorists, but somehow only Polymarket gamblers that hold NO know it didnt happen.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
DonaldinhoTrumpito sold 22k yes shares and bout 50k yes shares 1 hour ago
0
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
4 cents away from 50-pence being underwater on his 500k yes position
5
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
you lost $5k in the market so far its about to be $285k
0
TimeQuestion
7 months ago
strength of position is proportional to 1/(number of comments)
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
bro has 70k PNL bet 270k on yes at $.99 LOL
2
TimeQuestion
7 months ago
Classic case of the losing side dominating the comments and wasting their time on a losing fight.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
No media consensus border was crossed, most media reporting opposite "A Lebanese army source said Tuesday that the force had seen no Israeli ground incursion, after United Nations peacekeepers and Hezbollah also denied any ground incursion had begun."
1
BigMike11
7 months ago
Looks to me like Israel invaded, and there is lots of evidence. "broader ground incursion, which began Monday night" https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israel-sends-troops-into-lebanon-escalating-fight-against-hezbollah-1dbcee03
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
Whales betting their entire PNL that they can rig the market
1
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
Polymarket needs to change all the rules to final outcome will be decided based on how our whales vote
1
yevh97
7 months ago
The whales decided "Yes". If the market makes a decision based on the whales' actions, it will be considered fraud.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
Agree this looks like a huge polymarket whale rig job
1
zynyz
7 months ago
1st market condition fails - Hezbollah officially denied. 2nd market condition fails and is not needed since 1st one is a NO - no credible reporting consensus/photos/videos of forces with combat intent in Lebanon in September. The raids were over the past year, no combat happened in 70 raids, WSJ and other media describes these as clendenstine intelligence ops, no official date of a non-air ground raid / intelligence op in September
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
1st market condition fails - Hezbollah officially denied. 2nd market condition fails and is not needed since 1st one is a NO - no credible reporting consensus/photos/videos of forces with combat intent in Lebanon in September. The raids were over the past year, no combat happened in 70 raids, WSJ and other media describes these as clendenstine intelligence ops, no official date of a non-air ground raid / intelligence op in September
7
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
they didnt, confirmed by Hezbolah (market settlining confirmation) but Yes whales are rigging
1
Leot290
7 months ago
is already October did they or they didnt
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
https://www.uma.rocks/dashboard Are these the 3 guys that decide the final answer? Im guessing 1 of them is a Yes whale?
0
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
Yes bros unloading now 1mperator17 sold 1,000 Yes at 99.0¢ ($990) JJo sold 14,000 Yes at 99.0¢ ($13,860)
0
zynyz
7 months ago
Hey why are you guys selling??? abdendriel sold 9,330 Yes at 99.0¢ ($9,237) 9m ago 0xFJAFJKLDSKF7JKFDJ 0xFJAFJKLDSKF7J... sold 5,000 Yes at 98.9¢ ($4,945) 10m ago
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
Hey why are you guys selling??? abdendriel sold 9,330 Yes at 99.0¢ ($9,237) 9m ago 0xFJAFJKLDSKF7JKFDJ 0xFJAFJKLDSKF7J... sold 5,000 Yes at 98.9¢ ($4,945) 10m ago
1
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
the raids have taken place over the past months, as well as more recently, with troops “probing” and gathering intelligence" This? LOL
1
ANudeEgg
7 months ago
That's nice. The WSJ is a little more specific and claims that the raids were done recently.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
https://x.com/ELINTNews/status/1841089759898149203 Here is a video of the Raids which have no dates but have happened "since the beginning of the year"
1
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
Hezbollah has already stated NO, so "media consensus" condition no longer applies as first market condition resolves
1
TimeQuestion
7 months ago
If Hezbollah doesn't make a statement they'll use IDF + consensus of credible media reporting
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
You think this satisfies Yes conditions? "the raids have taken place over the past months, as well as more recently, with troops “probing” and gathering intelligence"
0
ANudeEgg
7 months ago
Read carefully. I didn't say November resolved incorrectly. I said it resolved correctly because of credible reporting. @monom, here is your source you asked for. https://www.timesofisrael.com/troops-said-to-enter-hezbollah-tunnels-with-pre-invasion-forays-into-lebanon/
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
"credible reporting that it happened" ok give 1 source please that satisfies market Yes conditions
0
ANudeEgg
7 months ago
@Wilmaco Because regardless of what Hezbollah says, there is credible reporting that it happened. This is why the November market resolved without any dispute. And since the November market resolved Yes, this one will as well. It's not a rigged game -- there are just semi-scammers trying to convince people of something that isn't true. The ONLY debate at this point is whether what Isreal has done constitutes an "invasion" (for other market purposes).
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
"Media consensus" condition no longer matters since condition #1 resolves to No officially. And there is no media consenus "Al-Mayadeen correspondent: What the Israeli media is reporting about a ground advance near the border is false"
0
ANudeEgg
7 months ago
Only if you ignore the second half of the last sentence.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
This 1 article means that there is 0% change the market can resolve to Yes per its terms: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hezbollah-media-chief-says-no-israeli-troops-have-entered-lebanon-2024-10-01/
6
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
https://www.middleeasteye.net/live/gaza-israel-war-lebanon-hezbollah-attacks-updates
0
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
https://polymarket.com/event/israeli-forces-enters-lebanon-before-november/israeli-forces-enters-lebanon-before-november How is this one resolving arleady?
0
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
https://x.com/AlMayadeenLive/status/1840896076636725557
2
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
https://x.com/ymoe342/status/1840891314105196860
0
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
If theres one thing I know about Israel, they are honest about their planned military moves
0
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
Yes there can be a million raids, as long as there is no ground combat operations
0
abdendriel
7 months ago
WSJ, CNN, Telegraph, many others reported the raids. Don’t confuse with the wider invasion
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
Only ways for this to resolve Yes "official confirmation by Hezbollah and Israel" This has not happened, " Consensus of credible reporting" Israel’s Channel 12: Contrary to reports, there is currently no Israeli ground entry into Lebanon There is no consensus.
6
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
Exactly right. Per the rules that is not enough to meet Yes criteria
2
Will143
7 months ago
other than the multiple independent reports about special forces operations conducting raids in the past couple of days there's not that much evidence.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
zynyz
7 months ago
So much for "consensus of credible reporting" as a way to get a Yes pushed through
1
OhNos
7 months ago
https://x.com/InsiderGeo/status/1840839060920602819
Venezuela Presidential Election Winner
zynyz
9 months ago
Isnt this a conflicting way to measure outcome if fraud occured: [Fraud counts if discovered]: "The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Venezuela" [Fraud doesn't count if discovered]: "however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice"
1