n/a | Polymarket Tracker

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

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1 year ago

Save for gambling with you wonderful folk

1

n/a

1 year ago

I've never been less convinced to buy crypto in my life

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

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1 year ago

I've never been less convinced to buy crypto in my life

4

What will Trump say during Nevada rally?

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1 year ago

nvm we good

0

n/a

1 year ago

Kill me

What will Trump say during Nevada rally?

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1 year ago

Kill me

1

SkillzThatKillz

1 year ago

We got Bryce Hall before abortion

What will Trump say during Nevada rally?

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1 year ago

Moderator bros nice W

2

What will Trump say during Nevada rally?

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1 year ago

Can't believe its not parody lmao

3

R13

1 year ago

Rsbn is so annoying to watch

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

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1 year ago

RISE BROTHERS

0

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

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1 year ago

GG well fought

0

Republican

1 year ago

Current score is 79-19 Kamala (by my count, in terms of minutes, ties being excluded from the count). Looking like Kamala is going to take home the win

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

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1 year ago

The last attempt at rigging a market like this was a bit of a let down. Nice to see true professionals at work.

3

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

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1 year ago

Just export the data to csv and count the rows

0

Republican

1 year ago

Feel like this market is going to be hard to resolve

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

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1 year ago

As of 8:19 I believe trump is winning 12-5 (3 ties)

0

Rainiak

1 year ago

about 15-3 if I had to guess

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

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1 year ago

Still might get the chance!

2

BonScott

1 year ago

I'm so fucking dumb I could have bought Kam at 23c

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

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1 year ago

Just moments away from the most degen market in history

10

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Liked by CrossfireH..., ArtVandala... and 8 others

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

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1 year ago

King

1

wanyewest69

1 year ago

guys kamla gonna loose

Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?

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1 year ago

oh sick lmao

0

What will Trump say at the debate?

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1 year ago

*WHEEW*

0

What will Trump say at the debate?

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1 year ago

How many borders we at

0

Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?

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1 year ago

That entire pump was one guy, and not even the top holder; more fun awaits!

0

n/a

1 year ago

It is over. Trump win

Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?

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1 year ago

huh

0

Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?

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1 year ago

Makes you think.

0

YatSen

1 year ago

I panicked and sold my Trump. It's strange—how could nearly 500k shares accumulated in the top 3?

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

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1 year ago

That’s a wrap folks; let’s do this again sometime 🤠

1

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

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1 year ago

You should scroll down past the graph and take a look lol

0

MrNFT

1 year ago

RCP doesnt use them :D

2024 September hottest on record?

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1 year ago

Seems September 2023 was exceptionally higher than the norm; I'll probably follow but will see how the first few days of the month are

0

OmenOfLord

1 year ago

When August becomes the hottest Month, I assume September will soon follow. This at .30 makes no sense. We've had the hottest months over and over the past 14 months in a row. So the chance is more like 90%+, especially if August breaks records.

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

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1 year ago

+3.4 on the 30th*

0

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I'm not a Trump supporter, btw. I agree with you as a general statement about here. This market is different because RCP has a severe right-wing bias.

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

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1 year ago

I probably would have made the same bet as well, but it would have already resolved for Trump (Harris was +3.7 on the 23rd and +4.3 on the 30th over on 538); RCP is biased as hell but their polling selection is generally consistent.

1

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

I'm not a Trump supporter, btw. I agree with you as a general statement about here. This market is different because RCP has a severe right-wing bias.

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

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1 year ago

Tbf this would've been a whole different story if we used the 538 average instead lol

1

babendums

1 year ago

i love profiting off of trumpers cognitive dissonance. its a beautiful thing. Polymarket is skewed right, so its free alpha.

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

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1 year ago

That's a weekly poll dog; wouldn't post to RCP until Wednesday earliest

3

432

1 year ago

Yes people will have a big awekening.Rassmussen for example has not been updated since august 28 where it went now from +2 to +4 on 29th and 30th even +5 ......

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

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1 year ago

If its 50/50 Fredi is still down 80k lol

0

diddy

1 year ago

This is not over! When a poll drops that gives bad points to Kamala to bring 30/8 to 1.6, it’s 50/50. One sweet poll is needed for Fredi to enjoy a long vacation on Bahamas

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

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1 year ago

Did for me in Central Time, might take a few hours then

0

SaulG

1 year ago

Graph updated through 8/29, but not 8/30 (at least on the west coast)

Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?

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1 year ago

She was down even worse before she won the "Will Kamala flip Trump on Polymarket" bet last week. Whales could easily put up enough to make up that deficit and play this market.

3

Xplayer

1 year ago

just look at kamala's order book

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

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1 year ago

Do the rules even indicate that we need polls ending 8/31? RCP has "published numbers" on the graph for the 29th and 30th despite their most recent poll ending on the 28th.

1

jl3128776

1 year ago

RCP just updated with the new ABC poll. It replaced the old ABC poll but both are +4 Kamala so we stay at 1.8. This also shows that the RCP team is actively tracking polls as they come in. I haven’t seen new polls that end on 8/30, which means that when the polls ending 8/31 and later are added it should trigger the review process. 1.6 on 8/23, 1.8 on 8/30.

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

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1 year ago

Yeah 8/30 just populated for me after they added ABC. I'm guessing we might see a CBS poll as well today but this is looking pretty good.

0

SusanWarrenHR

1 year ago

Did ole' Susan miss something? The value for August 30 is showing +1.8 for me (compared to +1.6 for August 23). Yes, we have to wait until data for August 31 is out, but I think Y is still undervalued even at 83.5

2024 September hottest on record?

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1 year ago

This seems like a great place to blow all my money

8

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

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1 year ago

No one understands the timing of the graph updates I guess lol; tbh I thought there'd be a data point for the 30th by now

1

AppleADay

1 year ago

Is this not like 95% kamala, why is the market still priced like this

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

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1 year ago

That's wild wtf

1

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Ok, it won't let me post a picture, so I changed my profile picture just for you :). Again, you're likely going to win, but it's a lot more murky than you' d think.

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

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1 year ago

Holidays or the academic calendar (if Harvard is doing a lot of the work) might throw off the schedule

2

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Harvard-Harris poll, why do I keep doing that?

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

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1 year ago

I'm keeping an eye out but I haven't seen any news. It's actually pretty rare for them to release a poll in August if you look back at their archive: https://harvardharrispoll.com/. They usually release one in early/mid September.

1

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Harvard-Harris poll, why do I keep doing that?

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

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1 year ago

Day 0 (Aug 23) still says 1.6 for me regardless of the time scale, could 100% believe it that the website is fucked and actually displaying different values to different people somehow. Gonna be a mess then if the gap closes lol

0

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

Check now, it's 1.7. I don't know how the rules will count it. I used to be the largest Harris holder ion the first day or so. This is part of why I switched. Not saying you should, but you're going into this from the standpoint of what's rational and that's not what RCP seems to be offering. Check it now, it says Day 0 is 1.7. Yes, it was 1.5.

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

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1 year ago

Was it +1.5 originally? I've only seen +1.6

0

EdgyUsername

1 year ago

@Sonontherun, they do retroactively change averages, according to their right wing alchemy. Look at Day 0's average.

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

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1 year ago

Most likely but I guess there's a chance the number could retroactively change if they add new polls tomorrow, depending on how they formulate the averages

0

Eyebrows

1 year ago

Agree on the weird delay thing. Still, the real result will be done once we see today's number, whether that's at midnight or 6 am or whatever.

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

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1 year ago

Will also add its a major holiday weekend in the US , so after today the chance of major polling updates until Tuesday (9/3) is probably pretty low, but who knows lol

2

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

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1 year ago

It appears that RCP adds a data point for the previous day to their plots, regardless to if there is polling data in their average covering that day (currently Harris +1.8 for August 29th). My guess is that the reason Day 8 was originally included in the rules is that is because that is when data for Day 7 will be added to the plot. Realistically I think that's when this should end, but I think a fair argument can be made based on the additional context that this market will actually end when Day 8 is also visible. I'd guess that'd be likely around midnight ET on 8/31 or early morning on 9/1.

3

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

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1 year ago

We all suffer together then 🤝

0

TheOneB

1 year ago

yeah, it resolves at 50/50 if there is no change an Fredi bought his at over 60 average

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

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1 year ago

Fredi if it’s any consolation I accidentally bought the wrong shares last week and lost 5k. Thanks for helping me recover big bro 🫡

4

Will RFK Jr. drop out before September?

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1 year ago

Did you ever doubt, anon?

4

Will RFK Jr. drop out before September?

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1 year ago

Idk what these folks are thinking lol

0

Will RFK Jr. drop out before September?

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1 year ago

https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/robert-f-kennedy-jr-drops-out-of-presidential-race-endorses-trump-f043e9b9?mod=politics_lead_story

2