AestusInformationFund
#693
Rank
69
Comments
29
Likes Received
21
Likes Given
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
AestusInformationFund
11 months ago
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/2024-general-election-turnout/
2
AestusInformationFund
11 months ago
156m and counting ... this market can not remain in denial much longer
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
AestusInformationFund
11 months ago
156m and counting ... this market can not remain in denial much longer
3
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
AestusInformationFund
11 months ago
source?
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Blockchess
11 months ago
According to specialized analysts we are slightly above 159 million vottes, which means it's already a win.
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
AestusInformationFund
11 months ago
This victory will be so glorious, this will be one of the most memorable trades I've made in my life. A bit like buying Bitcoin back in 2015.
5
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
AestusInformationFund
11 months ago
It is crazy how the market has switched all of a sudden. The momentum is on the yes side, and the count just keeps on going! We still have nearly a full month to go before final numbers are published and we are only 5m votes away!
1
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
AestusInformationFund
11 months ago
It seems election atlas will publish final numbers 15th of december. The final reports will come in on the 7th.
0
iKilledKenny404
11 months ago
Can one of you copers tell me when it's likely to end?
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
AestusInformationFund
11 months ago
The funny part is I was never worried, I still feel very confident we will make it. I am kind of kicking myself for not just throwing everything I have at this. But I have decided not to be silly. I've been betting for 20+ years and have never seen a mispricing quite like this one.
0
JDoe
11 months ago
This market will be fun 15 days from now when we are at 157.9M and they keep counting XD
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
AestusInformationFund
11 months ago
we have already seen a flip in the turnout market for above 155, we don't need that much more to go over 158. Sure we can come up short, but I would say we are a favorite to make it. Though a slight one.
0
AestusInformationFund
11 months ago
I can't believe this market, but I also can not ignore the data. Position nearly doubled in size, and took on a 160+ gamble just for the f of it. Good luck to us I guess.
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
AestusInformationFund
11 months ago
We will see the last states report their final numbers on or around the 7th of December. We are already at 153 at the moment. I wouldn't be surprised at all if we make it, we might even hit 160.
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JDoe
11 months ago
This market will be fun 15 days from now when we are at 157.9M and they keep counting XD
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
AestusInformationFund
11 months ago
We all use the same reuters/ap feed, which links up to the official reporting. Don't be silly, we all work from the same data we just look at it differently. Obviously we can't say that 13.3% of the vote is pending final count. It depends on how many votes are in the unreported precincts. However, they are also unlikely to have a way lower than average voter density. Even if you adjust for only 50% of voter density, you still get numbers that slightly exceed the previous ATH. I have said in many posts that I am not certain of anything, but that I just saw a large discrepancy in the odds and in the reality. I have thought that since paying 51c for my first couple of shares, and continue to think that now and have bought all the way down. I am just saying what I see, and putting my money where my mouth is.
0
AestusInformationFund
11 months ago
I can't believe this market, but I also can not ignore the data. Position nearly doubled in size, and took on a 160+ gamble just for the f of it. Good luck to us I guess.
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
AestusInformationFund
11 months ago
Yes and the precincts have votes, so if you are still pending well over 10% of precincts you can't have counted 98% of votes. Or well, it would require those last precincts to have an extremely low average vote count. If I adjust for half of average vote density, it would come down to about 10m votes left to count. This could be more, it is not likely to be less. It is impossible for it to be MUCH less than 10m. Which is why I've been saying for a few days now this will be extremely close.
0
AestusInformationFund
11 months ago
Count keeps getting adjusted. Yesterday we were up to 86.7% today we are back down to 86.5. Which would mean we still have roughly 10 million votes left to count nation wide.
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
AestusInformationFund
11 months ago
I have adjusted downward now all of a sudden but no idea why? My avg now hits 156,9m
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VinaCapital
11 months ago
Based on the latest updates and data, the projected total turnout for the U.S. presidential election in 2024 is approximately 159.1 million votes. This projection takes into account the votes that have already been counted and the estimated number of outstanding votes yet to be tallied.
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
AestusInformationFund
11 months ago
https://ig.ft.com/us-elections/2024/results/president/
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AestusInformationFund
11 months ago
Count keeps getting adjusted. Yesterday we were up to 86.7% today we are back down to 86.5. Which would mean we still have roughly 10 million votes left to count nation wide.
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
AestusInformationFund
11 months ago
Count keeps getting adjusted. Yesterday we were up to 86.7% today we are back down to 86.5. Which would mean we still have roughly 10 million votes left to count nation wide.
0
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
AestusInformationFund
11 months ago
You count ballots to get votes, your vote is written down on a ballot. Counting ballots is counting votes.
0
VinaCapital
11 months ago
I ask both ChatGpt and Grok for their projection. Here are their answer. ChatGPT: As of November 17, 2024, the total number of votes cast in the U.S. presidential election is approximately 160 million. This figure is based on reports from the Associated Press and other reputable sources. While most votes have been counted, some ballots are still being processed, and final tallies may adjust this number slightly. However, the overall voter turnout is expected to remain consistent with this estimate./ Grok: The projected total turnout for the U.S. presidential election in 2024, based on the latest updates, is approximately 158.5 million votes. This number reflects both the votes that have been counted so far and the extrapolation for remaining votes, aiming to provide a comprehensive estimate of the final turnout.
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
AestusInformationFund
11 months ago
I am manifesting a world where we get 160.001 votes and I clear a cool 130k for never being a wimp and not trusting my data! Then we will take a nice long vacation.
0
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
AestusInformationFund
11 months ago
They all work off the same govt feed, which says only 86.7% of all precincts have reported final numbers. Where it becomes tricky is judging how many votes are actually left within those precincts. I am not certain of anything in life, but in prediction markets this is about the biggest discrepancy between real life and market price that I have ever found. So I had to pile on when the opportunity presented itsself.
0
AestusInformationFund
11 months ago
I can't believe this market, but I also can not ignore the data. Position nearly doubled in size, and took on a 160+ gamble just for the f of it. Good luck to us I guess.
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
AestusInformationFund
11 months ago
I can't believe this market, but I also can not ignore the data. Position nearly doubled in size, and took on a 160+ gamble just for the f of it. Good luck to us I guess.
1
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
AestusInformationFund
11 months ago
The increase in count has slowed down, but it is still steady. We are currently at only 86.7% counted with roughly 152.8m votes confirmed so far. This would mean we go well over 160m. Just look at all the data, it is all there.
0
Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
AestusInformationFund
11 months ago
California hasn't been done counting yet, they didn't "find" anything.
1
peasant
11 months ago
California found another 13k ballots between yesterday and today. Im sure its nothing huh
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
AestusInformationFund
0 years ago
Whatever it will be it will be close. We are already over 152m and should still have around 14% left to confirm final counts. We are stuck in our position, we either win or we lose. We won't start trading at fair value all of a sudden. I am fine with that, this bet was huge free money long term. Elections only grow..
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BussyBlaster
0 years ago
Yes bros how we feeling? Seems like we lost
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
AestusInformationFund
0 years ago
That is the estimated number for the state of New York. You probably mis underderstood what you read.
0
AestusInformationFund
0 years ago
Numbers slowing down now, this will really go to the wire. It will be extremely close whichever way it goes!
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
AestusInformationFund
0 years ago
https://ig.ft.com/us-elections/2024/results/president/?seat_id=P-CA-00
1
AestusInformationFund
0 years ago
Numbers slowing down now, this will really go to the wire. It will be extremely close whichever way it goes!
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
AestusInformationFund
0 years ago
152 and still counting, increases are slowing down. But we still have well over 10% of the vote pending final count. Only 85.5% of precincts have reported so far. It is really close but likely we will make it.
0
AestusInformationFund
0 years ago
Numbers slowing down now, this will really go to the wire. It will be extremely close whichever way it goes!
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
AestusInformationFund
0 years ago
Numbers slowing down now, this will really go to the wire. It will be extremely close whichever way it goes!
3
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
AestusInformationFund
0 years ago
It doesn't, it shows the number of precincts they estimate have completed their reporting. If 84% have been estimated to have completed their reporting, you can logically deduct that the rest have not. Especially considering the fact we see this number move back down frequently. Meaning that precincts assumed to be done, continued on reporting new vote counts. You think I went from 8k to 50k because I'm drunk? This is close but a clear value play. They will likely touch 160 is my guess.
0
AestusInformationFund
0 years ago
Backlog estimates increased in various presincts. This means more votes left to count than they originally thought. This might actually break 160 guys! I need money for the 160+ market!!!
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
AestusInformationFund
0 years ago
Big talk for a guy holding 20 shares. My source is the only feed that can be considered a source. The AP and Reuters stream. Clearly shows only about 84% reported as of now.
0
AestusInformationFund
0 years ago
Backlog estimates increased in various presincts. This means more votes left to count than they originally thought. This might actually break 160 guys! I need money for the 160+ market!!!
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
AestusInformationFund
0 years ago
Another adjustment, down to 84% now, they just keep finding more votes!
0
AestusInformationFund
0 years ago
Backlog estimates increased in various presincts. This means more votes left to count than they originally thought. This might actually break 160 guys! I need money for the 160+ market!!!
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
AestusInformationFund
0 years ago
another adjustment only 84.6% counted so far by estimation. This is going to be so glorious!
1
AestusInformationFund
0 years ago
Backlog estimates increased in various presincts. This means more votes left to count than they originally thought. This might actually break 160 guys! I need money for the 160+ market!!!
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
AestusInformationFund
0 years ago
Backlog estimates increased in various presincts. This means more votes left to count than they originally thought. This might actually break 160 guys! I need money for the 160+ market!!!
3
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
AestusInformationFund
0 years ago
151.068.896 votes counted if taken the average of my 3 inputs. 14.9% of the vote still left to count if taken the average of my 3 inputs. This is a lock boys!
1
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
AestusInformationFund
0 years ago
+1
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VinaCapital
0 years ago
Keep adding
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
AestusInformationFund
0 years ago
Additional liquidity has been freed up from other less interesting positions. We are loading up the truck! Yes for the win!
1
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
AestusInformationFund
0 years ago
AP election dashboard, which the source to settle this bet follows btw, just on a huge lag. The gov numbers get published to the Reuters and AP streams. All sources derive their information from those two.
0
AestusInformationFund
0 years ago
16% of the vote pending final count and at an estimated total of 153m votes at the moment. I am still very confident the yes have it!
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
AestusInformationFund
0 years ago
16% of the vote pending final count and at an estimated total of 153m votes at the moment. I am still very confident the yes have it!
1
Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024?
AestusInformationFund
1 year ago
https://x.com/IRIran_Military/status/1855717611390091396
1
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
AestusInformationFund
1 year ago
It is insane how people are not piling on here. We are at 145m votes and still have 14% of the vote pending to count roughly. Could even be more. This by now should not even be a 50/50 anymore. This is like an 85+ true value spot.
3
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
AestusInformationFund
1 year ago
how you like my bags now, biatch.
0
AestusInformationFund
1 year ago
My models currently project between 160 and 162m. 16% of the vote still pending final count.
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
AestusInformationFund
1 year ago
Lol we won't need it. Don't worry the yes side has this in the bag.
1
CrankyChicken
1 year ago
Is this platform acknowledging that 15-20 million votes were not real last time? That makes a significant difference if 2020 is the basis for the most turnout ever...
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
AestusInformationFund
1 year ago
You are right, latest numbers now indicate a range between 162 and 165m. Still 16.1% of the vote pending. I would buy more if I weren't completely out of fiat. Not selling BTC for this bet as it will take another month to finally settle this market.
0
AestusInformationFund
1 year ago
My models currently project between 160 and 162m. 16% of the vote still pending final count.
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
AestusInformationFund
1 year ago
My models currently project between 160 and 162m. 16% of the vote still pending final count.
5
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
AestusInformationFund
1 year ago
162
0
BigLoser
1 year ago
This market has so much cope XD
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
AestusInformationFund
1 year ago
Get ready for the pump! Once California completes the count everyone will start seeing the forest for the trees!
1
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
AestusInformationFund
1 year ago
Rough guess like 70% and we are at 120 million votes. I expect we end up just under 160m.
1
AestusInformationFund
1 year ago
Imagine having panic sold your yes bags because when 20% of the vote was counted, we weren't breaking records yet! Hahahaha all these guys presume themselves traders! Dying laughing!
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
AestusInformationFund
1 year ago
Imagine having panic sold your yes bags because when 20% of the vote was counted, we weren't breaking records yet! Hahahaha all these guys presume themselves traders! Dying laughing!
5
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
AestusInformationFund
1 year ago
Thanks bro, nonsensical setup but at least I understand now!
0
AestusInformationFund
1 year ago
How can the price jump from 73c to 58c without a single trade having taken place?
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
AestusInformationFund
1 year ago
because there are a lot of idiot traders who traded out of their position in a super illiquid orderbook. The pace of votes is well on track to cross the previous record! Just look at Reuters dashboard!
3
95WinRate
1 year ago
uhh how?
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
AestusInformationFund
1 year ago
Price went down, I bought more! The dems are ready to stuff those ballot boxes like there is no tomorrow!
0
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
AestusInformationFund
1 year ago
he's a small stakes gambler on a high because he sees a tiny profit on his screen. He's probably made 6 screenshots already and shared it on his insta feed!
0
BigLoser
1 year ago
BIG LOSER, WHERE ARE YOU BIG LOSER?
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
AestusInformationFund
1 year ago
No but I do expect orderbooks to be true. For price only to move when bids or asks are being filled. Not just out of nowhere for no fucking reason whatsoever.
0
AestusInformationFund
1 year ago
How can the price jump from 73c to 58c without a single trade having taken place?
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
AestusInformationFund
1 year ago
Not in the slightest, but I am interested in understanding how a market can move without actual movement in the market. Also, don't talk a big game, you've bet about a one person lunch worth of money. Stop acting like you're some hotshot!
0
AestusInformationFund
1 year ago
How can the price jump from 73c to 58c without a single trade having taken place?
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
AestusInformationFund
1 year ago
How can the price jump from 73c to 58c without a single trade having taken place?
1
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
AestusInformationFund
1 year ago
Well, because in the history of the US elections it only happened 3 times that elections did not break previously established records. Combine that with the fact this is the most heated election battle since Trump vs Hillary. It was a no brainer. Never placed a bet with this much confidence at this good odds.
1
pawciozekontop
1 year ago
people which bought YES, why?
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
AestusInformationFund
1 year ago
You need an alt to hide your 2k position from your other hugely winning account? Hahahaha Yeah sure bud!
0
BigLoser
1 year ago
Last chance to buy no or simply, HAVE FUN STAYING POOR.
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
AestusInformationFund
1 year ago
You know americans cant bet this market right?
0
BigLoser
1 year ago
The only reason price is increasing is because people are going to the poll stations rn and seeing queues lol. Because they didn't queue in 2020 because COVID.
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
AestusInformationFund
1 year ago
Nice PNL buddy!
1
BigLoser
1 year ago
Last chance to buy no or simply, HAVE FUN STAYING POOR.
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
AestusInformationFund
1 year ago
Add a lag of say 1% to the vote count and the in person voting tomorrow. This should easily sail past the previous record.
1
n/a
1 year ago
https://apnews.com/projects/election-results-2024/2024-early-voting-tracker/ This is going to be a fucking close one bros. Somebody post the gif of Frank Reynolds yelling "Gambling" in that episode with the vietnamese gambling taking place at the gang's court-mandated youth basketball league lol.
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
AestusInformationFund
1 year ago
So why did you not bet?
0
REEEEEEEEEE
1 year ago
There's no way it's even close given mail-in balloting is down 50% across the board. Free advice.
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
AestusInformationFund
1 year ago
With previously unseen levels of confidence I have returned to buy more.
2
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
AestusInformationFund
1 year ago
I don't like your PNL! :) So I don't care what you think of my odds.
0
DopeFrancis
1 year ago
Yes holders may want to check voter registration numbers and early voter turnout compared to 2020.
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
AestusInformationFund
1 year ago
66,7 million votes already in, I like my odds.
2
DopeFrancis
1 year ago
Yes holders may want to check voter registration numbers and early voter turnout compared to 2020.
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
AestusInformationFund
1 year ago
You are free to buy the other side, but I don't see you doing that!
5
AestusInformationFund
1 year ago
There are few bets in my life that I have placed with a higher degree of confidence.
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
AestusInformationFund
1 year ago
There are few bets in my life that I have placed with a higher degree of confidence.
5
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?
AestusInformationFund
1 year ago
turnout went up in nearly every single election. It went down maybe like twice. This is just a free money bet.
0
big.mek
1 year ago
There's simply too many factors. There's only 4 million more voting eligible population compared to 2020 and voter turnout went DOWN in 2022. So yeah not betting my money on this.
Another Iran strike on Israel in October?
AestusInformationFund
1 year ago
this bet for max value, and then the before end of 2024 market to hedge if they respond slow somehow. It is literally free money.
0
countmein
1 year ago
Iran 'determined to defend itself' after Israeli strikes - DW News
Netanyahu out in 2024?
AestusInformationFund
1 year ago
Yes side getting way too strong for my liking, despite time passing and no real reason to suspect him stepping down. First I thought this was a lock, but this market is making me suspicious.
0
MSFT shareholders vote for Bitcoin investment?
AestusInformationFund
1 year ago
Wow your sub 200$ position must really mean something to you. If you win you might hit breakeven on your account! Well done, loser!
0
MrKangaroo
1 year ago
fuck yeah got in at 87c, thanks crypto bros
Who will win white women?
AestusInformationFund
1 year ago
That was before Roe v Wade drama and also vs a woman universally hated by even the people on her payroll. Plus the fact that women have grown far more liberal than ever. This will be a close race, if not a blowout victory for Kamala. Almost a full 3 to 1 is literally printing free money.
0
AestusInformationFund
1 year ago
Of all the inefficient markets on polymarket, this is the least efficient! Or I am an idiot. One of the two is true.
Who will win white women?
AestusInformationFund
1 year ago
Of all the inefficient markets on polymarket, this is the least efficient! Or I am an idiot. One of the two is true.
0