Nobel Prize in Literature

abdendriel

9 months ago

Guardian article citing Can Xue as favourite…for 2023 prize and she didn’t win. https://amp.theguardian.com/books/2023/oct/04/chinese-author-can-xue-favourite-win-2023-nobel-prize-for-literature

0

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Adam Back now looking over his shoulder every now and then for everyone who lost money on him

1

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Peter Todd admitted it himself by saying Hoback was “grasping at straws”. Denies being Satoshi but admits Hoback’s conclusion.

0

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

9 months ago

If Musk was in the doc, HBO would be selling it on those preview clips like crazy

1

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Why ppl buy No Back. Last part of the interview https://www.fastcompany.com/91201894/satoshi-nakamoto-hbo-bitcoin-documnetary-money-electric-trailer

0

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

9 months ago

I don’t think Forbes would gamble its reputation on being verifiably wrong. Only we PM freaks do that

0

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Source?

0

yuyang

9 months ago

This morning, HBO leaked a video, and at the end of the movie, it reads: Memory of 'Dave Kleiman' - Forever Satoshi Nakamoto. Dave Kleiman is the final Satoshi Nakamoto.

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

9 months ago

After Adam helped Cullen so much with the doc, imagine Cullen concludes it by accusing Adam of falsifying documents submitted to a court, accusing him of perjury. I don’t think that’s how this goes down.

0

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Oh shit check out the cast on IMDB. Only a few ppl… and Peter Todd at the end. https://m.imdb.com/title/tt33600145/fullcredits/cast?ref_=m_ttfc_2

0

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Director said the confronted him. So he’s not dead

0

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

9 months ago

“ idk wtf im doing i put all my life savings in yolo hopefully my parents dont kick me out” -2nd largest Adam Back holder. Check out Activity, almost exclusively Adam Back. Scroll down to see the comment

0

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

9 months ago

And also there are large buy spikes in Yes Adam Back, as if certain buyers were new to this but came here to throw money at it

0

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Tried looking into Adam Back volatility. Look at the second largest holder for Yes. Account created recently almost just to buy Yes Adam Back consistently. Also their comments are like “yolo haha”. https://polymarket.com/profile/0x076425d6110b25e6d1c17b14cfefa84b29918c45

2

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Check out Adam Back’s twitter @adam3us. Total fanboy

1

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Yea I feel like Adam Back is using the show to get publicity for his company

1

makszed

9 months ago

People are funny. They assume if someone appears in a trailer, they're the creators, but that's not how trailers work. You don't know the real truth—Len is definitely winning.

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

9 months ago

And Adam back was super cooperative with them

0

Donkov

9 months ago

In the interview they say they confront the prime suspect. Cant confront dead men - Sassman and Finney https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/07/business/video/bitcoin-creator-identity-satoshi-nakamoto-hbo-documentary-digvid

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Why the big Elon bet, Car?

0

Car

9 months ago

Wait, in the trailer they are talking about the government alot, so maybe they are going to conclude that Satoshi = the US government. That would also make sense because they said it would shock the US elections

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Cullen said he’s the first person they talked to to try to lead them to Satoshi. Then the result is unexpected

0

Fred19999

9 months ago

Breaking: it's been revealed that Adam Back is in the documentary

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Cullen says they talked to the usual suspects and Adam Back was a starting point that led them to a deeper mystery. The result is controversial and May shock the election. https://www.fastcompany.com/91201894/satoshi-nakamoto-hbo-bitcoin-documnetary-money-electric-trailer

1

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

9 months ago

This is totally how Satoshi writes: https://x.com/adam3us/status/1798054843623628963?s=46

1

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Photoshoots with a wizard’s robe and repping some other crypto companies by wearing their hoodie on the HBO doc.

0

abdendriel

9 months ago

Satoshi’s twitter handle revealed: @adam3us. Mysteriously stepped away with 1m BTC but he’s now pumping “uptober”, pissed it’s not $100k

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Satoshi’s twitter handle revealed: @adam3us. Mysteriously stepped away with 1m BTC but he’s now pumping “uptober”, pissed it’s not $100k

1

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

9 months ago

From the author of the bitcoin white paper who implemented his vision and moved on to other things, Adam Back: https://x.com/adam3us/status/1842474436970020870?s=46

0

ensemble0112358

9 months ago

You are a moron and don't know what you just copy-pasted.

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Satoshi handed everything over to move on and remain anonymous (or die). Adam back is going around acting like a total BTC fanboy. Check out his twitter

0

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

9 months ago

Seems like Adam is the focal point of the documentary, I think he repeatedly denies being Satoshi as a humility thing, but it looks like HBO is going to strongly insinuate he grandfathered the concept.

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Backstreets Back, but Satoshi isn’t Back. Adam Back’s tweet: “ in a market sense which is what matters, it's just not here. no one wants to be short, and you can see that from short duration option chains, high long funding rates, and domination of basis traders vs real shorts.” Check out Adam’s twitter, it’s not him

0

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Interview with Cullen Hoback https://www.fastcompany.com/91201894/satoshi-nakamoto-hbo-bitcoin-documnetary-money-electric-trailer

1

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Adam Back denied being Satoshi. Cullen said in an interview that they started with Back and this lead to a much grander mystery. The name is someone controversial that is unexpected

1

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Director said Adam led them to further evidence and a controversial name

0

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

9 months ago

Seems like Adam is the focal point of the documentary, I think he repeatedly denies being Satoshi as a humility thing, but it looks like HBO is going to strongly insinuate he grandfathered the concept.

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Agreed. Satoshi wouldn’t be the CEO of some blockchain company

0

Bepper

9 months ago

If Adam was Satoshi he would have just claimed bitcoin. He already made Hashcash. Bitcoin would have just been a new version. Satoshi communicated with via email with Wei Dai first. It's pretty obvious SN (NS) was looking for code examples which lead him to Hashcash. If you're a programmer you understand this process. In the bitcoin talks forums in 2013 Adam made suggestions about how he would have done things differently. Adam bragged heavily in the forums that bitcoin got the hash idea from him. This is not someone who was trying to hide the connection. Adam is not Satoshi. Had he been Satoshi he would have never hid his identity. There is only one person who qualifies and has the type of personality who would hide his identity, someone who loves pseudonyms.

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

9 months ago

“Funding secured” was not a joke

1

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Satoshi slip-ups reveal clues. Van Nuys IP address (near SpaceX) exposed. Funding secured tweet

0

addicts

9 months ago

Honestly, it could be anyone else BESIDES Hal

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Cullen Hoback said Adam was his first point of contact. The conversation led him deeper into a mystery that resulted in an unexpected and controversial name.

0

abdendriel

9 months ago

Some emails between Adam and Satoshi: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/technical/bitcoin-adam-backs-complete-emails-satoshi-nakamoto

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Deep respect to Satoshi for making sure Adam’s hashcash papers had proper citations so he got credit

0

abdendriel

9 months ago

Some emails between Adam and Satoshi: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/technical/bitcoin-adam-backs-complete-emails-satoshi-nakamoto

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Some emails between Adam and Satoshi: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/technical/bitcoin-adam-backs-complete-emails-satoshi-nakamoto

0

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Adam back as an entry point into a bigger mystery that the director says the result is unexpected, controversial and will get debated.

1

abdendriel

9 months ago

“ I put that on a shelf for a while and said, all right, if I can get prolonged access to one of them as an entry point, that might unlock the larger story. That entry point was Adam Back[…]so it became a key entry point to unlocking the bigger mystery.” -director. See interview: https://www.fastcompany.com/91201894/satoshi-nakamoto-hbo-bitcoin-documnetary-money-electric-trailer

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

9 months ago

“ I put that on a shelf for a while and said, all right, if I can get prolonged access to one of them as an entry point, that might unlock the larger story. That entry point was Adam Back[…]so it became a key entry point to unlocking the bigger mystery.” -director. See interview: https://www.fastcompany.com/91201894/satoshi-nakamoto-hbo-bitcoin-documnetary-money-electric-trailer

1

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Helped the director so much to unravel the mystery

0

abdendriel

9 months ago

Adam back was the only one who could’ve

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Adam back was the only one who could’ve

0

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Hal categorically denied it and his son showed conversations between Hal and Satoshi

0

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Watch till the end. He’s Back

0

Tentaclecracy

9 months ago

This link points me to a Terminator II video

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

9 months ago

They got footage of Satoshi admitting he’s Adam Back https://youtu.be/44gD94kl5CU?si=inXq0ZLmJGWthWSr

1

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Why do you think it’s Adam Back?

0

goingsocial

9 months ago

Idk who came in and decided this should be a prediction market. Please go back to being an opinion poll

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Can someone explain why it’s Adam Back?

1

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Imagine if the documentary isn’t finished and they used the polymarket odds to identify the name

5

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

All u need for a military offensive are here: very broad definition which includes artillery fire. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Offensive_(military)#:~:text=An%20offensive%20is%20a%20military,%2C%20operational%2C%20or%20tactical%20goal.

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

“Military offensive” are the rules, not in invasion. IDF announced Northern Arrows operation started on 30 Sep

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Polymarket deleted the tweet about him buying this https://x.com/polymarket/status/1838614497080062230?s=46

0

TooDumbToWin

9 months ago

But JustKen just bought 37k No

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

What we’re observing is drip buying Y / selling N. Both Y buyers and N sellers are trying to execute optimally with minimum price slippage.

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

“The Ayr’s have it” -50 Pence

1

HsB34sgg

9 months ago

Results speak for themselves. https://www.firstpost.com/explainers/israel-ground-invasion-might-cause-lebanon-to-completely-collapse-13822174.html

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

And the comment for pence

1

Car

9 months ago

Chad is the only person responsible for this Y price lol

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Unless Car changes his opinion, which he has done in the past to his credit.

0

aldynspeedruns

9 months ago

this is a win-win scenario. Either I win, or car loses. No matter what I win.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

40% votes revealed. Yes increased by a few percent. No percentage halved

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Yes votes increased after more votes revealed

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Good luck!

2

Dr.ChristmasJones

9 months ago

Just leaving this comment in a sea of YES holders

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

It’s an offensive if it achieves “some larger strategic or tactical goal”. Arguably what the larger strategy was in killing OBL. But in this case, the artillery shelling (done by ground troops) are all part of Northern Arrows

0

Jooba

9 months ago

Isolated raids are not intended to establish control over part of lebanon. The IDF already announced these raids have been going on for months. Was killing Osama a USA invasion of Pakistan?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

You can’t disconnect all the activities in the Northern Arrows offensive when the IDF state they’re all part of the Northern Areows offensive

1

Jooba

9 months ago

@isabellebeaumont you are betting wayyyyy too much if you think Special Ops IDF use m16s lulz

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

They attacked, bro.

0

Jooba

9 months ago

@isabellebeaumont you are betting wayyyyy too much if you think Special Ops IDF use m16s lulz

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

“ An offensive is a military operation that seeks through an aggressive projection of armed forces to occupy or recapture territory, gain an objective or achieve some larger strategic, operational, or tactical goal. Another term for an offensive often used by the media is "invasion", or the more general "attack"”.

0

Jooba

9 months ago

@isabellebeaumont you are betting wayyyyy too much if you think Special Ops IDF use m16s lulz

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

I’m sorry bro. From 1 yes buyer to another previous yes buyer

0

05brownboy

9 months ago

bro pulled up info from 4 days ago and thought he had something 💀

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

“Invasion” is not in the rules. So many people got screwed before by reading the title and not the rules.

1

Jooba

9 months ago

limited localized= not an invasion yet

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

IDF saved us by announcing the commencement of their offensive on twitter with a timestamp https://x.com/idf/status/1840890054819864776?s=46

3

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Be careful not to be fooled by the title. The rules say “military offensive”.

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

The rules say “military offensive”. IDF announced they already began

0

RBvKrsr7ZfRK

9 months ago

Israel did want to control some land of Lebanon on Sep 30th. But Israel failed because Lebanon fought back.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

November market unanimously voted it was an invasion already

0

Shayku

9 months ago

I'd be curious to hear the No case here. The yes case writes itself. I guess the No case wants to isolate the raids from the invasion? Seems like a heavy lift.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Unanimous Y or the November market. Y price still cheaper than the US election (which is an actual coin flip). Rare opportunity

3

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

For those entering Y and exiting N I mean

0

abdendriel

9 months ago

Now it’s all about best execution

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Now it’s all about best execution

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Don’t forget the resolution source: A or B or Israel or C. IDF announced it started “a few hours ago” on 30 Sep https://x.com/idf/status/1840890054819864776?s=46

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Dark poetry: this market resolves almost right on Oct 7

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

They’re reasonable people. The acted on the info available earlier. They’ll make a new reasonable decision with new info now

0

Darkpsico

9 months ago

Capitulation yet ?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

No holders still have a chance to sell and double money on the yes

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

He’ll probably keep it in polymarket

0

sharky🦈🦈🦈

9 months ago

Chads gonna have multiple houses after this

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Happy Rosh Hashanah

2

abdendriel

9 months ago

We all knew this moment would happen.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

We all knew this moment would happen.

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

What’s the remaining point of uncertainty?

0

HaterzLoserz

9 months ago

Reason is telling me to stay out, emotions are telling me to buy yes for the lulz, better judgement has prevailed for now, but this may change at any moment. Dont get too excited though, and dont risk what you cant afford to lose (chad)

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Actually half hoping some Yes holders will take profit early so I can get in

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Bought more Yes before other ppl notice

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

No doubt anymore tho, can only complain that UMA is controlled by whales

2

Donkov

9 months ago

Will NO commence a copefenssive intended to establish control over this market?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

No more doubts about intention!!

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

IDF announced their offensive started “a few hours ago” in a tweet on 30 Sep https://x.com/idf/status/1840890054819864776?s=46

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

https://x.com/idf/status/1840890054819864776?s=46

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

IDF announced the offensive started a few hours ago on 30 Sep.

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

The operation will occupy their homes. They’re welcome to return once the operation is done

0

abdendriel

9 months ago

Netanyahu said it to the people of Lebanon: “ Please, get out of harm's way now. Once our operation is finished, you can come back safely to your homes.” https://x.com/israelipm/status/1838249143891861626?s=46

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Netanyahu said it to the people of Lebanon: “ Please, get out of harm's way now. Once our operation is finished, you can come back safely to your homes.” https://x.com/israelipm/status/1838249143891861626?s=46

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

There’s new evidence. The establishment of control is happening over recent days.

1

hp-loveshack

9 months ago

this market's lost its damn marbles. in the past 48hr, uma told you there was insufficient evidence for 'yes', and even gave more time to accrue evidence. now, there's no new evidence that either discredits the case for 'no' or further advances the case for 'yes'. and yet the market's reverted to 50/50? wild stuff.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

IDF footage of the houses and tunnels they established control over https://x.com/idf/status/1841886439732134055?s=46

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

IDF established control of house. Hezbollah can’t enter this house anymore to grab their munitions back. https://x.com/idf/status/1842127761944809559?s=46

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

They’re in control of this home. https://x.com/idf/status/1842127761944809559?s=46

0

denizz

9 months ago

Israel still hasn’t controlled any territory, per institute for the study of war. No consensus that they are trying to do so, which would be contra their stated intentions.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Yes there’s a reason they chose Too Early and then some of them switched to Yes. None switched to No

0

BibiNetanyahu

9 months ago

(Just FYI this is extremely, extremely likely to go Yes, barring explosive new information, and you should not trade based off people in the comments trying to pump their bags)

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Moshe Zalman Feiglin (Hebrew: מֹשֶׁה זַלְמָן פֶייגְּלִין; born 31 July 1962) is a right libertarian-leaning[1][2][3] Israeli politician and activist, and the leader of libertarian Zionist party Zehut.

0

abdendriel

9 months ago

Moshe Feiglin on the governments plan https://x.com/moshefeiglin/status/1838830185023480060?s=46

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Moshe Feiglin on the governments plan https://x.com/moshefeiglin/status/1838830185023480060?s=46

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Yair Golan (Hebrew: יאיר גולן; born 14 May 1962) is an Israeli politician and leader of the Democrats party and a senior military officer.

0

abdendriel

9 months ago

Google translate: “ In any case, a ground move must be prepared for immediate action that will allow control of the Lebanese ridges that rule into our territory.”

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Google translate: “ In any case, a ground move must be prepared for immediate action that will allow control of the Lebanese ridges that rule into our territory.”

0

abdendriel

9 months ago

Yair Golan: “ בכל מקרה יש להכין לפעולה מיידית מהלך קרקעי שיאפשר שליטה ברכסים הלבנונים השולטים לתוך שטחנו.” https://x.com/YairGolan1/status/1839256229157212285

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Yair Golan: “ בכל מקרה יש להכין לפעולה מיידית מהלך קרקעי שיאפשר שליטה ברכסים הלבנונים השולטים לתוך שטחנו.” https://x.com/YairGolan1/status/1839256229157212285

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Rosh Hashanah ends after Tishrei 2 (nightfall of Oct 4). IDF will be “let’s move out” and start establishing control over the bombsites A and B

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

This is the link https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Offensive_(military)

0

abdendriel

9 months ago

Military offensive can consist of only 10 ppl. But in this case there are 100 tanks and tens of IDF casualties. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Israeli_invasion_of_Lebanon

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Military offensive can consist of only 10 ppl. But in this case there are 100 tanks and tens of IDF casualties. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Israeli_invasion_of_Lebanon

0

HsB34sgg

9 months ago

The "Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?" RESOLVED YES with near UNNANIMOUS votes. The proof is overwhelming!!! https://polymarket.com/event/israeli-forces-enters-lebanon-in-september

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

In the last vote, some of the Too Early voters voted for Yes. No was unchanged.

0

Scoobs

9 months ago

What's the argument for "Too early" anymore? " if Israel commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Lebanon" - there is plent of proof that forces moved in on September 30. And now there is plenty of proof that that action has escalated and Israel is moving deeper into Lebanon. Can someone enlighten me?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

It’s more like the intentions of the offensive are being revealed. When you travel somewhere, your intentions of going there are observed by the activities you do after arriving.

0

Mr. House

9 months ago

Sorry to all people but this market is looking rig to me, what a coincidence that in the middle of the night a butch of orders start to apper.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

It’s probably because of the proposals, disputes, votes that have been happening that causes volatility.

0

Mr. House

9 months ago

Sorry to all people but this market is looking rig to me, what a coincidence that in the middle of the night a butch of orders start to apper to hit the yes that is the true.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Trying to get in cheaper?

0

Mr. House

9 months ago

Sorry to all people but this market is looking rig to me, what a coincidence that in the middle of the night a butch of orders start to apper.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

As information is available, it should be shared with the PM community for transparency. Otherwise a whale could buy up all the Yes liquidity with early information before everyone else got the chance

1

FamilyCapital

9 months ago

On 30th september they scammed you, now they repeat same thing, bought under 20c YES, spamming comment section with "proofs", I wrote in discord as well in here in comment section, they gonna succeed it again. Voala.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Some Too Early voters voted Yes in the last vote. No was unchanged. As time passes, more info is revealed.

0

FamilyCapital

9 months ago

On 30th september they scammed you, now they repeat same thing, bought under 20c YES, spamming comment section with "proofs", I wrote in discord as well in here in comment section, they gonna succeed it again. Voala.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

IDF established control of these properties and tunnels beneath them. https://x.com/idfsoldiergirl/status/1841177612473025007?s=46

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Operation Northern Arrows is the name of the offensive in Lebanon. Ground troops are just a part of the wider offensive. Check launch date https://x.com/amnestyireland/status/1841775865920676269?s=46

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

IDF self-reported that the offensive commenced a few hours ago on 30 Sep. Resolution source is A or B or Israel or C. The offensive commenced with artillery shelling in preparation for troop advance.

1

Car

9 months ago

nobody agreed it happened on september 30th. Otherwise the vote wouldnt have gone to P4

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

That’s a good attitude. It’s just one position in your diversified portfolio. But look, there’s no doubt what Bibi’s plan is with the “New Middle East” and complaints about 1701 buffer zone not enforced. It’s a matter of chance that the offensive started hours before this market closed.

0

🤺JustPunched

9 months ago

Man you guys are absolutely nutso

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Don’t you just love it when things commence with a clear and decisive announcement? https://x.com/idf/status/1840890054819864776

2

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

I love it when the military marked the commencement it’s operations with such a clear and decisive announcement!

0

RBvKrsr7ZfRK

9 months ago

our marriage

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

We were all there, waiting for the cabinet to approve it’s commencement on 30 Sep when finally the IDF tweet came out to announce it’s commencement.

1

HsB34sgg

9 months ago

Can anybody tell me what Operation “Northern Arrows” is??? WHAT IS IT???? https://x.com/idf/status/1840890054819864776

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

We saw some Too Early voters decide they were ready to conclude. yes increased, no unchanged.

1

RBvKrsr7ZfRK

9 months ago

People were aping into a NO bet based on P4... but didn’t understand the meaning. Time to get out before you sell junk bonds!

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

100 tanks crossing the border, deep evacuation calls, IDF soldiers dead. It’s a military offensive. Go tell the families of fallen soldiers and displaced Lebanese residents that it’s a minor raid.

1

HsB34sgg

9 months ago

Timely confirmation of the “COMMENCEMENT OF A MILITARY OFFENSIVE” as per the rules. https://x.com/AlMayadeenLive/status/1840780570378248414 More Confirmation of the “COMMENCEMENT OF A MILITARY OFFENSIVE” in the September market BEFORE THE DEADLINE. https://x.com/AlMayadeenLive/status/1840759133512888729 https://x.com/AlMayadeenLive/status/1840772769501331888 https://x.com/AlMayadeenLive/status/1840772824715173931 https://x.com/AlMayadeenLive/status/1840780061948944504 https://x.com/AlMayadeenLive/status/1840780093762699637 https://x.com/AlMayadeenLive/status/1840780198683242905 https://x.com/AlMayadeenLive/status/1840780570378248414 Google translates raids as raids, and airstrikes as airstrikes. https://x.com/AlMayadeenLive/status/1840719580060070032 Bombed https://x.com/AlMayadeenLive/status/1840758553016942887

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

The ones who did are the Yes holders now

4

Donkov

9 months ago

Greedy NOses, why didnt you take profits at .95C?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Rules: “commence military offensive”. IDF: “ In accordance with the decision of the political echelon, a few hours ago, the IDF began limited, localized, and targeted ground raids”. And thus the “Northern Arrows” offensive began as approved by upper echelons of government

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

The word “invasion” isn’t in the rules.

0

🤺JustPunched

9 months ago

It's really embarrassing that someone would exclude the title, and exclude the key piece of information. As you can see, when ChatGPT is given the title and the key piece of information, it immediately switches to No: https://chatgpt.com/share/66ff7c2a-8450-8012-95d6-abd707566ead

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

How can IDF tell the 60,000 displaced northern Israelis that it’s safe to return to border towns? Only by promising that they’ve established control.

0

HsB34sgg

9 months ago

Market rules for both the September and November Invade markets have been completely satisfied by Israel’s invasion into Lebanon. It's called AREA ACCESS DENIAL, a fundamental military strategy to establish control over a strategically important zone. In this case, pushing Hezbollah back 5KM to reestablish the UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which obligated Hezbollah to remain north of the Litani River. (i.e., to establish control over a portion of Lebanon.) Hezbollah has been in contravention of the Resolution ever since it was passed. Israel is intent on rectifying that problem by force, and once and for all! They started with the ground invasion on September 30th. This operation will continue until the openly stated and widely publicized stated objectives are achieved.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Resolution Sources: A or B or Israel or C. IDF announced the offensive began 30 Sep ET

1

BenCM

9 months ago

1 October Invasion was 30 September ET. That's the key fact.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

IDF established control over these properties and tunnels in Lebanon. https://x.com/idf/status/1841886439732134055?s=46

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Evidence of intent can surface after the action. If you travel somewhere, your intent can be evidenced by what you do after you arrive.

1

WhaleHunter

9 months ago

What happened in October cannot serve as evidence for September.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

There have been so many buffer zone 1701 talks amongst Israeli leadership leading up to the offensive. Now the evacuation instructions roughly line up with the 1701 buffer zone

0

RBvKrsr7ZfRK

9 months ago

Israel's military has reportedly added ground units to its operation against the Iranian-backed militant group Hezbollah. The IDF's stated goal is to restore a demilitarized buffer zone in southern Lebanon to ensure the safe return of some 60,000 Israeli residents to homes in northern Israel.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

No such thing as a high yield bond without risk. Online gambling isn’t a high yield bond. Understand the upset when IDF announces it launched the offensive hours before the market deadline.

0

Justifax

9 months ago

I understand some folks are bitter about getting rugged on the last day like this, but it happens, more often than you probably realize. Dozens of reputable outlets on Sept30th stated that the invasion had begun. That is a commencement.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

With IDF casualties, IDF will need to update the nation on what the sacrifice was for. Achievements will be revealed soon

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

I don’t get it..

0

RememberAmalek

9 months ago

don't dispute yet we're fine

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Some Too Early voters now have the info needed to vote yes. No is unchanged

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Responding to supporting material with threats

1

Naak

9 months ago

You better start selling like the rest before you loose the rest.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Landmark post from the IDF: https://x.com/idf/status/1840890054819864776?s=46

0

FamilyCapital

9 months ago

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8N_yehAI5IQ Proof of an Israel invasion into Lebanon? Oh wait, this is about Russia invading Ukraine. But Ukraine has a lower population density and about 50 times a larger border with Russia and Belarus combined than Israel has with Lebanon. So how is it possible that we have no proof of an actual invasion of Israel into Lebanon on September 30th?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Resolution source: A or B or Israel or C

1

FamilyCapital

9 months ago

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8N_yehAI5IQ Proof of an Israel invasion into Lebanon? Oh wait, this is about Russia invading Ukraine. But Ukraine has a lower population density and about 50 times a larger border with Russia and Belarus combined than Israel has with Lebanon. So how is it possible that we have no proof of an actual invasion of Israel into Lebanon on September 30th?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

To evidence intention, context around the action is needed. As context is found and comes out, the intentions of the offensive will become evident

0

Naak

9 months ago

All these yes holder who cant even read simple rules sharing unrelated news posts while selling their shares is funny.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Bibi at the UN: “ This is the map I presented here last year. It’s a map of a blessing. It shows Israel and its Arab partners forming a land bridge connecting Asia and Europe. Between the Indian Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea, across this bridge, we will lay rail lines..”

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

I wonder what IDF’s intentions are when asking for this evacuation

1

abdendriel

9 months ago

“ DF Arabic-language spokesman Avichay Adraee announced that more than 20 villages across southern Lebanon were being called on to evacuate as the military's ground operation against Hezbollah continued.” https://x.com/jerusalem_post/status/1841788164580552908?s=46

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

“ DF Arabic-language spokesman Avichay Adraee announced that more than 20 villages across southern Lebanon were being called on to evacuate as the military's ground operation against Hezbollah continued.” https://x.com/jerusalem_post/status/1841788164580552908?s=46

0

Fredi9999WASP🐝

9 months ago

"Lebanese army says it fired on Israeli troops after second soldier killed in strike" https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-823089

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Yes holders are presenting findings and arguments, soon to be made by a portion of the world who don’t even know what polymarket is. Question of whether Israel launched an offensive to control part of Lebanon will be discussed even after this market is resolved. We’re not threatening anyone or saying something bad will happen to your shares. On the other hand, more and more No holders (not all) are going to threats and talking about the price.

3

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

“Major” isn’t in the rules. Military offensive includes bombing the capitol of a country. Or even artillery shelling

5

🤺JustPunched

9 months ago

This video shows a small raid. If you have video of a major offensive (or anything close to that) designed to control parts of Lebanon on September 30th, I think that would be very pertinent information to bring forward.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Pearl Harbour: military offensive launched when planes departed from Japan. At the time of launch, the planes were not yet in US airspace and no Americans witnessed it until they arrived.

2

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

This is a pattern when Yes side are all facts and no side are all threats

5

EdgyUsername

9 months ago

anyone know what's up?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Similarly, IDF (resolution source) announced the launch of their offensive on 30 Sep, saying it started hours ago. The offensive involved shelling and alleged use of white phosphorous, followed by troop advance.

2

abdendriel

9 months ago

Pearl Harbour was a military offensive. Before the planes entered US airspace, the offensive had been launched. Americans did not witness the launch from Japan.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Pearl Harbour was a military offensive. Before the planes entered US airspace, the offensive had been launched. Americans did not witness the launch from Japan.

1

Justifax

9 months ago

The "Northern Arrows operation" commenced on Sept 30th, ET. This has been broadly reported by every single media outlet. Nobody disputes this - nobody. As to the specific tactics of the operation, sure, who knows exactly what precisely happened. But the rules don't ask for that. You can argue 'control' if you want, but it is very unserious to argue 'commence' when every headline agrees on exactly when this operation started.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

They’re one of the resolution sources. No need for hezbollah to see them if hezbollah are hiding somewhere

1

Donkov

9 months ago

No need to guess, when the IDF says they are already going in, before the deadline https://x.com/IDF/status/1840890054819864776

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

That sounds like someone who wants to keep liquidity available

0

mr.ozi

9 months ago

It no longer matters what should or shouldn't happen. We already know the 80% of the UMA votes. It's pretty much a done deal, independently of what actually happened on the ground.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

The offensive is called the Northern Arrows operation

1

Justifax

9 months ago

Why this market should go same as November: assume that the offensive didn't commence on Sept 30th despite every headline from every credible outlet saying it did. Ask yourself - at what point does the offensive commence?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Too early is about intention to control a portion. Voting and disputes had plenty of time after the deadline.

1

mr.ozi

9 months ago

Voting No is logically wrong, because the resolution was proposed a few hours before the deadline, so in principle Israel could've invaded between the proposal before the deadline. The Too Early votes can essentially be seen as No votes for the next round.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

It was too early then, but now, the “control of a portion” of Lebanese space is evident on photo (self-reported by IDF) and video

3

Donkov

9 months ago

90% voted p4 - too early, and 10% - Yes.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

The intent to control a portion is now playing out because there’s footage of them actually doing it.

0

Tenebrus7

9 months ago

If Yes would be a viable solution for too early wouldn't have dropped so much but rather like the Maduro market to 80 first and then slowly going down with more evidence. All the yes holders hope for is another pump and dump in the 30s

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Btw is all this info in the discord right now? It seems like all boxes are tucked in the rules.

0

Donkov

9 months ago

Yep, the "special military raids". They can call it whatever they want. Doesnt change the reality, that they right now occupy parts of Lebanon.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

1:46 they’re controlling that area between those buildings

0

Donkov

9 months ago

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2sAiPglN-o8

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Same boat but I don’t understand the controversy..

1

Anti-ScamLawyer

9 months ago

So I just now bought these 2.7k shares it’s clear to me it was an invasion per the rules. I understand the controversy but I’m going to assume that this is going to resolve correctly despite was so,e of the naysayers and other people are saying about the possibly biased voting mechanism (which I do not understand. I’m new to this site). Seems like the controversy was cleared up officially now. For me it is a good test to see if Polymarket rules resolutions can be trusted to stay true to English and logic

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Yes and there doesn’t need to contact for an offensive to be launched. Napoleon launched a military offensive into Russia

0

Donkov

9 months ago

We know for certainty, that the IDF took the Lebanese border crossings (part of Lebanon clay), as the Lebanese army retreated north.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Northern Arrows was approved evening of 30 Sep and artillery shelling started. That’s a military offensive (so was pearl harbour). The intention has played out as IDF control portions of land with Hezb assets on them

1

abdendriel

9 months ago

When a rocket is launched from one country to another, the launch time refers to the rocket starting the journey, even if it’s still within the origin country’s airspace.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

When a rocket is launched from one country to another, the launch time refers to the rocket starting the journey, even if it’s still within the origin country’s airspace.

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

IDF are going to settle down somewhere in Lebanon and it will be clear it’s under their control.

0

Donkov

9 months ago

Nothing is decided. Vote was too early. More evidence comes out by the day.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Israel’s military offensive (Northern Arrows) included giving instructions to Lebanese citizens to leave. IDF are giving orders to residents and following up with military activity. This is an intention to control “ The Israeli military warned people in 50 Lebanese villages and towns to evacuate north of the Awali River, some 60 kilometers (37 miles) from the border and much farther than the northern edge of a U.N.-declared zone intended to serve as a buffer between Israel and Hezbollah after their 2006 war. Hundreds of thousands have already fled their homes.”

1

Donkov

9 months ago

Israel presses forward on two fronts and reports https://apnews.com/article/israel-iran-lebanon-hezbollah-gaza-news-10-02-2024-7d93f71b7894177b4f9c303671ee55de

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Anyone doubts that this portion is under IDF control? Can Hezbollah go there and use it now or is it in the hands of the IDF?

0

abdendriel

9 months ago

The tripod is sitting on a triangular portion of Lebanon that IDF control. Their intention was to control this rocket launcher so it stopped launching rockets.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

The tripod is sitting on a triangular portion of Lebanon that IDF control. Their intention was to control this rocket launcher so it stopped launching rockets.

0

abdendriel

9 months ago

“ Here is Hezbollah attack infrastructure, which included a rocket launcher, explosive stockpiles and additional military equipment that our forces located and destroyed:”. IDF posted a picture of a Hezbollah rocket launcher which they now control. https://x.com/idf/status/1841436605669835238?s=46

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

“ Here is Hezbollah attack infrastructure, which included a rocket launcher, explosive stockpiles and additional military equipment that our forces located and destroyed:”. IDF posted a picture of a Hezbollah rocket launcher which they now control. https://x.com/idf/status/1841436605669835238?s=46

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

“IDF soldiers will mark the holiday in the Gaza Strip, Lebanon, Judea and Samaria“ says IDF. They intend to celebrate Rosh Hashanah in a portion of Lebanon, all possible because of an offensive approved and launched on the night of 30 Sep. https://x.com/idf/status/1841506768364466419?s=46

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Did the tanks park overnight?

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Military offensive? yes. Intention to control a portion? We’ll see which portion the tanks are parked on. Unless they’re driving back and forth daily.

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

What’s the source of doubt right now? Intention to control a portion of Lebanon?

0

Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by Oct 31?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Hahahahhaha

0

Gena🐊

10 months ago

People don't realize that among americans there is a sexual practice where, usually a man, kisses the anus of another man. Thinking that Americans are virginal saints and won't get the diseases is just nuts.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

How did the aircraft enter the Hezbollah tunnels then?

0

Besh24

9 months ago

Raids they mention are air raids to prepare for a ground operation. Ground raids are incoming. The yes market bullies unfortunately need some reality check

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Israel is included in the resolution source as well as a consensus of credible reporting. We have both

0

notinventedhere

9 months ago

📝 🇱🇧 *Field Reports from Southern Lebanon* 📡 *Field correspondents* on the southern Lebanese borders are reporting that, as of now, there has been *no breakthrough* at the borders. However, rescue helicopters have been spotted evacuating *Israeli soldiers* on two separate occasions. 🚁 ⚠️ It is important to highlight that the ongoing *media blackout* from both sides is making it extremely difficult to obtain *precise and live* information. Much of the news currently being shared is through the observations of local people who remain in the area, close to *UNIFIL* and the *Lebanese Army* forces. 🪖👀 *📲 Stay tuned for more updates and insights with Wider Vision!*

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

I can’t believe there’s still a question about whether a military offensive occurred. IDF have even announced it.

0

HsB34sgg

9 months ago

More confirmations just keep piling in! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q9EK2bddG_Y, https://thenightly.com.au/world/lebanon-israel-commences-ground-invasion--c-16237510, https://www.arabnews.pk/node/2573438/middle-east, https://www.observerbd.com/news/492816, https://x.com/Frances_Coppola/status/1840966652092981709

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Yes, Lebanon not enforcing 1701 so Israel saying they’ll do it for them

0

HsB34sgg

9 months ago

Your logic is faulty. Israel's intent has been made public for weeks!!!

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

There’s no evidence that the military operation was offensive, because IDF stands for Israel Defense Force, not Offence Force.

0

HsB34sgg

9 months ago

CNN now confirming!!! https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-lebanon-war-hezbollah-09-30-24-intl-hnk The Times of Israel now confirming, too!!!! https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-september-30-2024/ Now, the Independent confirming! https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/israel-lebanon-hezbollah-invasion-war-leaders-iran-live-updates-b2621409.html The Telegraph now confirming!!! https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/09/30/israel-lebanon-inavsion-latest-news/ Forbes has now CONFIRMED!!! https://www.forbes.com/sites/mollybohannon/2024/09/30/israel-begins-ground-raids-in-southern-lebanon/ NPR confirming!!! https://www.npr.org/2024/09/30/nx-s1-5133463/israel-lebanon-hezbollah-invasion Reuters now confirming!!!! We have a massive "consensus of credible reporting"!!! Resolution of this market? YES, YES, YES! https://www.reuters.com/world/lebanon-israel-live-updates-hezbollah-hamas-yemen-port-hit-by-airstrikes-2024-09-30/ Israeli military has now confirmed! https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/09/30/israel-lebanon-hezbollah-hamas-war-news-gaza/ The country of Israel has now CONFIRMED!!! It's Yes! https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/10/1/israel-says-has-started-targeted-ground-raids-in-lebanon The IDF has now CONFIRMED!!! https://www.smh.com.au/world/idf-confirms-ground-invasion-underway-in-lebanon-20241001-p5kesd.html

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

So the intention was a short-term occupation, not long term

1

HsB34sgg

9 months ago

CNN now confirming!!! https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-lebanon-war-hezbollah-09-30-24-intl-hnk The Times of Israel now confirming, too!!!! https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-september-30-2024/ Now, the Independent confirming! https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/israel-lebanon-hezbollah-invasion-war-leaders-iran-live-updates-b2621409.html The Telegraph now confirming!!! https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/09/30/israel-lebanon-inavsion-latest-news/ Forbes has now CONFIRMED!!! https://www.forbes.com/sites/mollybohannon/2024/09/30/israel-begins-ground-raids-in-southern-lebanon/ NPR confirming!!! https://www.npr.org/2024/09/30/nx-s1-5133463/israel-lebanon-hezbollah-invasion Reuters now confirming!!!! We have a massive "consensus of credible reporting"!!! Resolution of this market? YES, YES, YES! https://www.reuters.com/world/lebanon-israel-live-updates-hezbollah-hamas-yemen-port-hit-by-airstrikes-2024-09-30/ Israeli military has now confirmed! https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/09/30/israel-lebanon-hezbollah-hamas-war-news-gaza/ The country of Israel has now CONFIRMED!!! It's Yes! https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/10/1/israel-says-has-started-targeted-ground-raids-in-lebanon The IDF has now CONFIRMED!!! https://www.smh.com.au/world/idf-confirms-ground-invasion-underway-in-lebanon-20241001-p5kesd.html

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

There’s no evidence IDF are not permitting Hezbollah militants from walking through the tanks, enjoying the tunnels, and walking right up to the blue line as long alas they’re in Lebanese territory.

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

100 tanks sitting in Lebanon. But they’re not controlling the area where they’re parked. Villagers are for sure hanging their laundry on the turrets

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

The intention is in the rhetoric pre invasion

1

Cedarville

9 months ago

I don't believe there's consensus on the intent of the incursion, and there's not enough information about current troops' movement/activities.. Switched to "no"

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

There’s a military offensive and prior to that, plenty of reports of officials talking about the need for a buffer zone. Anyway, they are in control of the ola e where the tanks have parked

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

https://www.jns.org/renewed-buffer-zone-in-lebanon-a-must-chikli/

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

That’s exactly what you’re missing. Their intentions are reported before they start the operation

0

abdendriel

9 months ago

Sources of intention are in past news, not breaking news. That’s where you’re not looking: https://www.timesofisrael.com/top-general-said-pushing-for-ground-incursion-to-create-south-lebanon-buffer-zone/amp/

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Sources of intention are in past news, not breaking news. That’s where you’re not looking: https://www.timesofisrael.com/top-general-said-pushing-for-ground-incursion-to-create-south-lebanon-buffer-zone/amp/

2

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

https://www.timesofisrael.com/top-general-said-pushing-for-ground-incursion-to-create-south-lebanon-buffer-zone/amp/

0

abdendriel

9 months ago

The only remaining question is intention.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

The only remaining question is intention.

0

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

IDF not only degraded Hezbollah’s assets, but also those of No holders with there transparent report on operation Northern Arrows

0

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

The IDF couldn’t have checked more boxes in the rules with this announcement: https://x.com/idf/status/1840890054819864776?s=46

0

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Let me guess, AI

1

notinventedhere

9 months ago

As of September 30, 2024, intense conflict continues between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israeli airstrikes have resulted in significant casualties, including the death of Hezbollah's leader Hassan Nasrallah and several senior commanders. Despite these losses, Hezbollah has vowed to continue its resistance, and there are indications that Israel may be preparing for a ground invasion, with Defense Minister Yoav Gallant suggesting the use of all available resources. However, no ground operations involving Israeli troops on Lebanese soil have been reported as of the end of September.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

I liquidated my earlier position because I realized No holders may have been right about whether troops have entered. But now that’s happened, question is the intention of Northern Arrows

0

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Either way, wish you happy Rosh Hashanah

1

n/a

9 months ago

If the No wins I wish you guys a happy Rosh Hashanah!

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Consensus of credible reporting already reported the raids in the recent days

1

n/a

9 months ago

Seeing as the results will be from Isreal ans Hezbollah everyone voting yes should visit thr verfied isreali news channels.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Don’t confuse this market with the invasion market. It’s now clear that IDF jumped the gun and conducted raids before today

4

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

No all of them said they did raids already

1

Besh24

9 months ago

All news wires say they havent gone in yet

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Yes they crossed before today in recent days during raids

0

RBvKrsr7ZfRK

9 months ago

They still DID NOT cross the border.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

At the strategic level, a phase continue for years. Not all phases of combat include fighting between armed forces. Phases can, and usually do overlap, and sometimes can be planned for parallel execution, often as part of deception planning. Phases typically found in offensive military operations are: Preparation Intelligence gathering phase[1] Operations planning phase Logistics management phase Deception and counterintelligence phase Assembly phase https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase_(combat)

0

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Intelligence gathering is part of combat operations https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combat_operations_process

1

Will143

9 months ago

A raid is a surprise attack against a position or installation for a specific purpose other than seizing and holding the terrain. It is conducted to destroy a position or installation, destroy or capture enemy soldiers or equipment, or free prisoners. A raid patrol retains terrain just long enough to accomplish the intent of the raid. A raid always ends with a withdrawal off the objective and a return to the main body

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

I wonder if I need to keep repeating myself for 2 whole days about WSJ, CNN, and a host of credible reports of raids intensifying over recent days in preparation for the invasion. Don’t confuse this with the other invasion market

1

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Facts are that a consensus of credible reporting came out over the past day around raids into lebanon

0

JoeBETS

9 months ago

Does polymarket always side with the 90%+ shareholders, I'm new but I feel like they're weak people who will always side with what everyone else is saying rather than basing off factual reports.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

WSJ, CNN, Telegraph, many others reported the raids. Don’t confuse with the wider invasion

1

zynyz

9 months ago

Only ways for this to resolve Yes "official confirmation by Hezbollah and Israel" This has not happened, " Consensus of credible reporting" Israel’s Channel 12: Contrary to reports, there is currently no Israeli ground entry into Lebanon There is no consensus.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

They’re not undercover. They just want to exclude mossad. In fact they’re recognising that intelligence is part of combat operations by adding that phrase to exclude mossad who are everywhere

1

n/a

9 months ago

Guys why do you think they added "Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count." in this new market they made. https://polymarket.com/event/will-israel-troops-enter-beirut-by-october-31 Because they want to make it clear that special ops gathering intelligence DOESN'T COUNT.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

It’s clear there’s a consensus of credible reporting that combat operations took place during raids into Lebanon in an intensifying manner in recent days. The raids were part of the preparation for the invasion

1

0x0067e40e99580bB4f48f377786e1f595557578D4-1722634879022

9 months ago

Think of it a system where we are all unsure about the outcome of this market, nobody really knows how it's going to end (either yes or no). Your best estimator is actually the number of people saying Yes or No not how much they put in value in the market which in this cases causes mispricing since the estimated probability is in favor of No with No/(Sum of Yes and No) is equal to 62.8% during the last 6 hours. Compare that to the market prices right now and you'll notice this is just how big your balls are

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Reading the rules, it looks like they’ve already launched a military offensive

3

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

That’s because the facts were revealed that they were doing combat operations within Lebanon in the recent days

0

0x0067e40e99580bB4f48f377786e1f595557578D4-1722634879022

9 months ago

The real probability when taking out the effect of whales is 62.8% in favor of No. In the last 6 hours, the number of No buys stands at 691 while the Yes buys at 409.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

The intent of them being there during raids is reported as preparation for the invasion.

0

n/a

9 months ago

For it to be resolved as “Yes,” Israeli military personnel need to physically enter Lebanese territory specifically for combat operation. Now, “combat operations” means more than just being present—it involves being there with an intent for combat, like setting up a position, advancing into enemy areas, preparing for a potential fight etc. Direct engagement isn’t necessarily required, but the intent must be combat-oriented.On the other hand, intelligence-gathering missions are different. If Israeli troops enter Lebanon purely for reconnaissance or covert information gathering, and there’s no combat objective, that wouldn’t count under the definition of “combat operations” for this market.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

CNN, WSJ, all reported that they already conducted raids intensifying leading up to today

1

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

https://apnews.com/article/israel-lebanon-hezbollah-gaza-news-09-30-2024-83ea5f243688f309754ec74850de4238

0

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

They already have been doing raids

0

RBvKrsr7ZfRK

9 months ago

Lebanon incursion awaiting cabinet approval, IDF operates in West Bank

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/sep/30/israel-attacks-live-blog-lebanon-yemen-hamas-hezbollah-news-updates-middle-east-crisis

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

When you take a dump, you control the toilet stall you’re in

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Oops I bought yes but forgot to consider the possibility that IDF might not stay

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Wonder if the IDF intend to allow Hezbollah to enter their campsite on the Lebanon side once they’ve established it. Controlling who can enter and exit is considered controlling an area

1

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

This is the safest market you can get. Rare occasion when somethings already happened but there’s still yes liquidity. Also, an invasion will clear all disputes

0

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

They are doing artillery shelling and the tanks are right on the border.

0

Donkov

9 months ago

did they invade?

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

WSJ, CNN, and now even more news outlets report that US officials confirm that Special Forces raids already happened and have been intensifying up to today.

0

iwantam4

9 months ago

Why some guys are saying that already resulted in "Yes"?

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

UN evacuating border

0

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

That’s the right move for them.

0

Prophet👻

9 months ago

Lebanese army withdraws from positions on southern border with Israel, sources say

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Or maybe I shouldn’t say anything, more expensive yes’s don’t help me

0

abdendriel

9 months ago

The artillery has started on the border. Artillery, not air strikes

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Special forces raids aren’t undercover. Like how undercover cops aren’t in uniform.

0

n/a

9 months ago

Polymarket knows they made a mistake with this market. They made a new similar market here https://polymarket.com/event/will-israel-troops-enter-beirut-by-october-31/will-israel-troops-enter-beirut-by-october-31?tid=1727720169724 and make it clear in the rules this time that "Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count." This market WILL. resolve to "No".

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

The artillery has started on the border. Artillery, not air strikes

0

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Consensus of credible reporting that the raids intensified over the past few days

0

Caligulas.dog

9 months ago

I have a feeling this will resolve to yes cause of market manipulations, but, still too good to not be part off

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Read the news and the rules. It’s happened. The fun is in the invasion market now

2

n/a

9 months ago

Just because a bunch of whales buy "Yes" doesn’t mean it’s true. When has something that’s been proposed last been trading at 90c? Whenever something is certain to resolve a particular way, it’s trading at 99c for "Yes" or "No" almost immediately. The fact that this isn’t the case here should tell you everything—there’s clearly a lot of uncertainty because the evidence doesn’t definitively support a "Yes" outcome. The market itself is uncertain, and that’s because the evidence is shaky at best.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

He is right though, some people came into this market without reading the details, thinking it’s tick tock. But actually it’s about a reveal of the flop, turn and river, cards that are already on the table

0

RBvKrsr7ZfRK

9 months ago

Manipulation

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

You should read the news

0

n/a

9 months ago

Clear as day.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

And also because the conditions are met.

4

crow

9 months ago

For people wondering why the price of no is still low because there is a guy called 50-pence scammer who keeps buying yes shares thinking that it will resolve to yes if the price of yes is high

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

IDF sent out photos of their their operational plans approved

0

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

That’s why US were pissed that the raids already happened

1

OhNos

9 months ago

My Guess is Israel will wait for the newly deployed F-15E, F-16, A-10 and F-22 fighter planes to arrive in the Middle East to help protect US troops before invading, My reasoning for taking NO on this market probably the Only US request Israel will listen too lol , remember they need our weapons if they plan to go to war.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

They intensified leading up to the upcoming invasion

0

n/a

9 months ago

These special forces agents carried out "intelligence-gathering" raids as stated by the New York Post. This is the "combat operations" you guys are speaking of? Sounds a lot more like they were trying to AVOID combat. On top of nothing that proves it was done between September 18 and September 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET?

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Enjoy!

0

n/a

9 months ago

i dont even know nuffin. shit we just hopin

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

If it wasn’t for him we all could’ve had better yes liquidity

0

Kavim

9 months ago

50-Pence should be banned

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Combat operations include preparation for an invasion. This is widely reported and recapitulated many times. Scroll down

0

n/a

9 months ago

https://www.timesofisrael.com/troops-said-to-enter-hezbollah-tunnels-with-pre-invasion-forays-into-lebanon/ “The report, which cited unnamed sources familiar with the matter, said the raids have taken place over the past months, as well as more recently, with troops ‘probing’ and gathering intelligence, as activity ramps up ahead of a possible ground offensive.” There is no way you’re telling me we’re gonna be resolving to “Yes” based off this? This entire report is built on vague claims from unnamed sources, talking about “probing” and “gathering intelligence”—there’s nothing here that confirms combat intent.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

No it will be the truth

1

notinventedhere

9 months ago

if this resolve to yes this will be fraud

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/security-cabinet-convenes-as-signs-of-looming-ground-offensive-multiply/

0

abdendriel

9 months ago

Security Cabinet convening now

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Security Cabinet convening now

0

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Given most major news outlets have reported this with US officials as a source, how about the burden of proof is on the No-side?

0

NothingEverHappens

9 months ago

"The official said: “They are targeting key sites which have been built across the border zone." your guy doesn't even have a name, "credible concensus" can't apply for a rumor like a guy said this or that because we don't know if it's propaganda or else. If you don't have CQB footages or pictures to back that up it doesn't worth anything.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Widely reported raids intensifying in recent days leading up to the invasion. The raids are combat operations (includes even things like desk work)

1

ThisIsSparta

9 months ago

This market will resolve to No because of three main reasons: 1) Raids were not combat operation, they were for gathering information and intelligence. You didn't see them bombing anything or killing anyone in these so called "raids". 2) Even if these raids would count (they shouldn't), not a single source knows when these so called "raids" happened. They mention that Israel did it a few months ago since October 7, but this market does not consider anything before September 18. 3) Troops are still not in Lebanon, which is the main reason for why we all placed bets in this market.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Polymarket could hardly exist if that were the case.

1

NothingEverHappens

9 months ago

If Israel does spec ops they won't claim it "The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by Hezbollah and Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used." and what is credible reporting unless you are a shin bet operative with a go pro you can't prove anything.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1955251/israel-special-forces-lebanon

0

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Just read the news. The raids have been intensifying in recent days leading up to the imminent invasion

1

n/a

9 months ago

There really is nothing more to add. This is absolutely a “No”.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Consensus of credible reporting doesn’t require individual names

0

ThisIsSparta

9 months ago

"A military spokesperson said no ground operation had started and added that the Israel Defense Forces did not comment on special operations." So easy, like seriously.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

As they told the US that they would

0

RoseCharts

9 months ago

We all shitposting but there is still a chance Israel actually invades Lebanon in the next 11 hours lol

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

The raids are confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting

0

ThisIsSparta

9 months ago

"A military spokesperson said no ground operation had started and added that the Israel Defense Forces did not comment on special operations." So easy, like seriously.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Not only IDF soldiers have insights now that the media’s all over the raids

1

NothingEverHappens

9 months ago

Either it's Whale style pump and dump or we got IDF soldiers with insights going all in. But the thing is that Israel won't invade without a massive carpet bombing or artilery preparation lasting at least for a month. It's very strange + the stuborn guys pushing for YES in the resolution section. I mean I don't know what to think about that.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Anyways, every word of the rules has been backed up with sources now. It would be funny (but actually not funny for those displaced) if the invasion started. “ Israel has notified the US that it intends to launch a limited ground operation into Lebanon that could begin within hours, a US official confirmed to CBS on Monday. ”

1

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Combat operations includes much less violent activities than these raids, which were reported to have damaged hezbollah outposts

1

ThisIsSparta

9 months ago

This market will resolve to No because of three main reasons: 1) Raids were not combat operation, they were for gathering information and intelligence. You didn't see them bombing anything or killing anyone in these so called "raids". 2) Even if these raids would count (they shouldn't), Not a single source knows when these so called "raids" happened. They mention that Israel did it a few months ago since October 7. 3) Troops are still not in Lebanon, which is the main reason why we all placed bets here.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

They said the imminent invasion won’t be major either. Small raids have happened, limited invasion imminent

2

SpaceHooves

9 months ago

"As of right now, I can say there are no major ground activities in Lebanon," Israel Defense Forces spokesman Major David Baruch told reporters in Israel Monday afternoon. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israel-lebanon-war-hezbollah-yemen-strikes-houthis-hamas-civilian-deaths/

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

US Marine Corps Combat Operations Centre (hint: they’re on laptops gathering and collating info) https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Sep4dLnm-fA

0

crow

9 months ago

I don't understand how people can't tell the difference between combat operations and military purposes

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

On the invasion market, yea that’s possible

0

Kavim

9 months ago

All YES gamblers go lose some money on this too: https://polymarket.com/event/will-israel-invade-lebanon-in-september?tid=1727699860870

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Incursion is not in the rules. But newer updates not include the word

0

Sandor

9 months ago

Your own source disputes your claim: "US officials are currently not describing these Israeli raids as a ground incursion, even as they continue to carefully brace for the possibility of a limited ground operation that could come in the coming days."

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

They’re not only on Lebanon soil, they’re under it too

0

Tji22

9 months ago

It clearly says troops on Lebanon soil they still at the border my boy

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Their intent is to invade. The operations are reported as part of a wider invasion to degrade Hezbollah

0

RBvKrsr7ZfRK

9 months ago

For the market to resolve to "Yes," there would need to be a clear indication of Israeli troops engaging in combat within Lebanese territory. Given the current reports, these operations appear to fall short of that threshold, suggesting that they may not meet the criteria for the market.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Reconnaissance in preparation for an invasion is. Also destroying outposts

0

blameanarchism

9 months ago

For those saying there have been 'physical operations inside Lebanon', would you consider any spy operation in any foreign nation as an invasion?

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Many authoritative sources of what’s included in Combat Operations below. USMC combat operations includes working with a laptop, let alone raids to destroy outposts

0

JoeBETS

9 months ago

It specifically says israel to enter for combat operations. gathering intel or preparing for a potential, does NOT apply..

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Those are exactly the rules actually

0

RBvKrsr7ZfRK

9 months ago

Given that military officials have stated that no decision has been made about a major ground operation, it reinforces your earlier points about the current situation. Until there is a clear commitment from Israel to launch a significant ground offensive that involves crossing into Lebanon with the intent to engage in combat, the raids you've described would likely not fulfill the criteria for the market to resolve to "Yes."

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Except from US officials

0

RoseCharts

9 months ago

There are no official confirmations

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

But they say they’ve done the comps at operations with the intention of preparing for the invasion

0

RBvKrsr7ZfRK

9 months ago

Given that military officials have stated that no decision has been made about a major ground operation, it reinforces your earlier points about the current situation. Until there is a clear commitment from Israel to launch a significant ground offensive that involves crossing into Lebanon with the intent to engage in combat, the raids you've described would likely not fulfill the criteria for the market to resolve to "Yes."

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Intensifying in recent days

0

Tories4Harris

9 months ago

MONTHS: The incursions follow months of similar covert missions in which Israeli special forces briefly crossed the Lebanon border for reconnaissance, but have increased in intensity in recent days as commanders prepared for a wider maneuver, three of the officials said.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Well imagine living in Lebanon.

1

Hamurabi

9 months ago

The Yes went from 13c to 95c in one hour and then straight for resolution and the Yes guys want to convince us that this is perfectly normal and and just happened because it's true 🤣🤣🤣

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

IDF did

2

Besh24

9 months ago

He has single handedly resolved this

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

“Combat Operations”: USMC, USAF, CAF all define it to include screen time work (let along RAIDS / destroying outposts). “Consensus of credible reporting”: first Telegraph reported it was in a briefing, then WSJ, then CNN from US officials. “Recent days” doesn’t mean 2 weeks ago.

1

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

“Incursion” isn’t in the rules. It’s Combat Operations

1

n/a

9 months ago

US officials are currently not describing these Israeli raids as a ground incursion !!!

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Rules don’t say anything about “incursion”. Combat Operations

0

abdendriel

9 months ago

Rules do t say anything

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Rules do t say anything

0

Bigiorn

9 months ago

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-lebanon-war-hezbollah-09-30-24-intl-hnk#cm1p0tx1b00003b6mp84lj4hj

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

CNN now reports the source as “US officials” https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-lebanon-war-hezbollah-09-30-24-intl-hnk?Date=20240930&Profile=cnnbrk&utm_content=1727708106&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&t=1727708687285

1

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

A consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Read the rules

1

3,3

9 months ago

How amusing these attempts are to present articles from the NYTimes/WSJ/other American media as truth, instead of waiting for official statements from Israel/Lebanon.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Plenty of authoritative sources provided below on what’s included in “combat operations”. Desk work included according to USMC

0

subtledrift

9 months ago

no news article says "combat" operation. most say "limited ground" operation

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Point being, combat operations doesn’t equate to shootout. But it definitely includes special forces Raids

0

abdendriel

9 months ago

In case anyone’s interested in Combat Operations jobs with the Canadian Armed Forces (there are desk jobs available) https://forces.ca/en/careers/combat

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Legally combat operations includes even includes cyber https://www.lawinsider.com/dictionary/combat-operations

0

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

In case anyone’s interested in Combat Operations jobs with the Canadian Armed Forces (there are desk jobs available) https://forces.ca/en/careers/combat

0

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

US Marine Corps Combat Operations Centre (hint: they’re on laptops gathering and collating info) https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Sep4dLnm-fA

0

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

https://irp.fas.org/doddir/army/fm34-1/ch4.htm

0

abdendriel

9 months ago

Federation of American Scientists on Combat Operations (includes a lot of non fighting activities, like rear operations)

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Federation of American Scientists on Combat Operations (includes a lot of non fighting activities, like rear operations)

0

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

How USAF defines combat operations is relevant, as a branch of the worlds most significant military

0

abdendriel

9 months ago

“Division members execute the ATO through constant command and control of the battle space, subordinate Theater Air Control System elements and assigned assets. The COD adjusts the ATO in response to changing situations such as battlefield dynamics, maintenance problems or adverse weather, and publishes changes to the ATO and the Airspace Control Order at throughout each execution day. The COD assumes responsibility for the next day’s ATO as soon as it is released from the Combat Plans Division. Organization The COD is led operationally by the Chief of Combat Operations. Specific mission requirements dictate the elements that comprise the COD at any given time. The COD is composed of offensive, defensive, and intelligence duty officers as well as weather, airspace management, and joint personnel recovery representatives. Liaison teams representing sister services, Coalition countries, various weapons systems and other specialties also augment the COD. Depending on the nature of the operations, typical liaison teams include the Army Battlefield Detachment, Navy and Amphibious Liaison Element, Special Operations Liaison Element, Marine Liaison Officer, Coalition liaisons, and other platform-specific liaisons with detailed knowledge of their aircraft.”

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

“Division members execute the ATO through constant command and control of the battle space, subordinate Theater Air Control System elements and assigned assets. The COD adjusts the ATO in response to changing situations such as battlefield dynamics, maintenance problems or adverse weather, and publishes changes to the ATO and the Airspace Control Order at throughout each execution day. The COD assumes responsibility for the next day’s ATO as soon as it is released from the Combat Plans Division. Organization The COD is led operationally by the Chief of Combat Operations. Specific mission requirements dictate the elements that comprise the COD at any given time. The COD is composed of offensive, defensive, and intelligence duty officers as well as weather, airspace management, and joint personnel recovery representatives. Liaison teams representing sister services, Coalition countries, various weapons systems and other specialties also augment the COD. Depending on the nature of the operations, typical liaison teams include the Army Battlefield Detachment, Navy and Amphibious Liaison Element, Special Operations Liaison Element, Marine Liaison Officer, Coalition liaisons, and other platform-specific liaisons with detailed knowledge of their aircraft.”

0

abdendriel

9 months ago

USAF: “ The Combat Operations Division (COD) executes and monitors the Combined Force Air Component Commander’s daily Air Tasking Order (ATO), a document that directs daily air operations with respect to aircraft sorties, weapons loads and operational tasks. As one of five divisions within the Combined Air Operations Center (CAOC), the COD enables the CAOC to meet its mission as the primary command and control facility for Coalition air operations in the U.S. Central Command’s (USCENTCOM) Area of Responsibility (AOR). The COD serves as the CAOC’s dynamic around-the-clock operations floor.” https://www.afcent.af.mil/About/Fact-Sheets/Display/Article/217807/

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

USAF: “ The Combat Operations Division (COD) executes and monitors the Combined Force Air Component Commander’s daily Air Tasking Order (ATO), a document that directs daily air operations with respect to aircraft sorties, weapons loads and operational tasks. As one of five divisions within the Combined Air Operations Center (CAOC), the COD enables the CAOC to meet its mission as the primary command and control facility for Coalition air operations in the U.S. Central Command’s (USCENTCOM) Area of Responsibility (AOR). The COD serves as the CAOC’s dynamic around-the-clock operations floor.” https://www.afcent.af.mil/About/Fact-Sheets/Display/Article/217807/

0

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

A consensus of reporting clearly state that the raids are part of a wider invasion.

0

n/a

9 months ago

Yes, “combat operations” isn’t just “combat,” but the key here is that “combat” must still be an intended part of the operation. What we see here are raids focused on intelligence gathering, probing, and targeting infrastructure—there’s no clear intent for direct combat. The market requires Israeli forces to be deployed with the intent for combat, not just to collect information or disrupt infrastructure. Think about the Cold War: when the Americans and Soviets were spying on each other, was the intent for combat or simply gathering intelligence? It was clearly intelligence gathering, not combat. Similarly, these recent raids are about preparation and intel, not combat, therefore this should clearly resolve to “No.”

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

The 7 functions of Combat : https://advancedforcesgroup.com/en/the-7-functions-of-combat/

0

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Combat Operations : https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase_(combat)

0

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Again, combat operations, not combat alone. There’s a reason the word operations is in there.

0

n/a

9 months ago

Every piece of evidence out there talks about intelligence gathering, probing, and targeting infrastructure. These raids have been going on for months and are clearly part of a preparation strategy. There’s absolutely no credible source that mentions Israeli troops being deployed with the intent for direct combat. “Combat” literally means “fighting between armed forces”—not intelligence gathering or probing. The sources cited are vague and anonymous, lacking any named individuals or concrete intel with specific dates or times. It is clear as day that this must resolve to “No.”

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

No holders looking for ways out

1

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

It’s true, anything can happen in war.

0

VaithunPhuSang-Fabric

9 months ago

the market is crazy to predict :)))

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

CNN reports that the special forces raids included damaging Hezbollah outposts in preparation for the invasion. Those are exactly the kind of combat operations special operations personnel would conduct.

2

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

A scammer is someone who tells you that online betting is actually a AAA bond with unusually high interest.

0

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Combat operations isn’t limited to a shootout. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase_(combat)

0

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Not the only source. WSJ, CNN, Telegraph reported it. telegraph’s source was a briefing.

0

CYQ

9 months ago

So the Anonymous source was bragging to his drinking buddies. No confirmation from Hezbollah. I have to confess, I can finally confess, I was that Anonymous Source

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

It’s funny how Yes holders are all providing research and sources while No holders are all threats.

1

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

The rules work on consensus of credible reporting. Right now they point to Yes. Burden of proof is on the counter argument.

1

n/a

9 months ago

There simply is no proof to answer this question yes. An unnamed US source said recently there where reconaissance operations. It does not say anything if it happened in the time frame from the 18th of September until today. We all agree that proof is needed to resolve, whether it is a polymarket or a legal case. And there is none yet.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

“ At the strategic level, a phase continue for years. Not all phases of combat include fighting between armed forces. Phases can, and usually do overlap, and sometimes can be planned for parallel execution, often as part of deception planning. Phases typically found in offensive military operations are: Preparation Intelligence gathering phase[1] Operations planning phase Logistics management phase Deception and counterintelligence phase Assembly phase” https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase_(combat)

0

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Combat operations you mean

0

🤺JustPunched

9 months ago

I think this is a good breakdown of the Yes/No arguments -- it will ultimately come down to how Polymarket defines "combat" -- https://discord.com/channels/710897173927297116/817444472009785366/1290308846543179802

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Those aren’t the rules.

0

n/a

9 months ago

There’s no verified report of Israeli forces being deployed with the specific intent to neutralize threats or capture high-value targets in combat situations. Until there’s clear evidence of direct combat engagement, this market cannot justifiably resolve to “Yes”.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Consensus of credible reporting also accepted

0

0x64D754C44852208575F9500ED1E4F10e6AD1512A-1722659354305

9 months ago

No official confirmation from either israel or hezbollah. A few reports the media talking about intelligence missions. This market cant resolve to yes.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Operations is widely accepted as work. Combat operations as the work involved in combat.

0

RBvKrsr7ZfRK

9 months ago

Definition of ”combat”: fighting between armed forces

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

If someone told you there are AAA rated high yield bonds in prediction markets, that’s a scam.

0

ThisIsSparta

9 months ago

If there is any justice, at least one of two things will happen: 1) Market will be resolved as No. 2) People will realize the scam and start bidding No.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Combat OPERATIONS includes various phases. Also, they destroyed Hezbollah outposts as reported by CNN

0

n/a

9 months ago

The literal definition of "Combat" is literally "Fighting between armed forces." I think that's all that needs to be said guys.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Entering Lebanon is not disputed, it is widely reported that military personnel entered Lebanon

0

n/a

9 months ago

While a combat operation may not always involve shooting, the market rules require evidence of Israeli troops entering Lebanese territory specifically for combat. The current evidence shows intelligence gathering and infrastructure targeting, not combat with enemy forces. Even if a combat operation can be broader, intent matters. If the actions were not undertaken with the intent to engage in combat, they do not meet the market’s definition.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

CNN has reported that the Special Forces raids destroyed Hesbollah outposts

0

RBvKrsr7ZfRK

9 months ago

So far, there was only preparation for combat operations. It’s not yet decided whether there will be a combat operation at all, it could change any minute, however.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

But Israel aren’t planning on invading 100 countries. Reporting consensus is that the raids are in preparation for an invasion of Lebanon

0

Michimax

9 months ago

Oh... here we go. The yes guys trying to make the Israeli infiltration mission of spies look like a ground combat operation... Well how many countries are on this planet? 195. I would say that at least in 100 of them Mossad agents have done missions. Were all of these considered ground combat operations?? I beg to differ.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

No, it requires combat OPERATIONS. At the strategic level, a phase continue for years. Not all phases of combat include fighting between armed forces. Phases can, and usually do overlap, and sometimes can be planned for parallel execution, often as part of deception planning. Phases typically found in offensive military operations are: Preparation Intelligence gathering phase[1] Operations planning phase Logistics management phase Deception and counterintelligence phase Assembly phase“

0

n/a

9 months ago

While a combat operation may not always involve shooting, the market rules require evidence of Israeli troops entering Lebanese territory specifically for combat. The current evidence shows intelligence gathering and infrastructure targeting, not combat with enemy forces. Even if a combat operation can be broader, intent matters. If the actions were not undertaken with the intent to engage in combat, they do not meet the market’s definition.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Reconnaissance by special forces are the exact definition of combat OPERATIONS

0

abdendriel

9 months ago

AI isn’t the resolution source. Bar fights, street brawls are combat but so reasonably person would call that operations.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

AI isn’t the resolution source. Bar fights, street brawls are combat but so reasonably person would call that operations.

0

n/a

9 months ago

Intent of operations: The reported Israeli incursions into Lebanon appear to be primarily focused on intelligence gathering, infrastructure targeting, and preparatory operations, rather than direct combat engagement as required by the market criteria. Lack of official confirmation: There is no official confirmation from Israel or Hezbollah regarding these operations, which is a key requirement for resolution according to the market rules. Ongoing nature of operations: The reported raids and intelligence gathering activities have been occurring for months, suggesting they are part of a prolonged campaign rather than a specific combat event within the specified timeframe. Credibility of sources: The reports rely heavily on anonymous sources and potentially biased reporting, without official verification from the parties involved Lack of clear combat evidence: There is no verifiable evidence of Israeli troops entering Lebanon specifically for combat operations as defined by the market criteria The reported activities do not meet the specific requirements outlined in the market criteria for combat operations. Therefore, based on the current evidence and the market's stated resolution criteria, the market should resolve to "No”.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

That’s not the resolution source though

0

n/a

9 months ago

Ask any AI you want they're gonna say it should resolve to "No".

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

I don’t know anyone who considers “2 weeks ago” as recent days

0

JJJAY

9 months ago

Can you please explain to me how you deducted that this “small raids” happened between 18th to 30th of September from the words”recent days”?

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

As a favour to save you money on disputes, here’s CNN: “ Israeli special forces have carried out small raids into Lebanese territory in recent days as part of preparations for a potential ground offensive, two sources familiar with the matter said. Israeli commandos infiltrated Lebanese territory, targeting Hezbollah positions near the border to gather intelligence and destroy Hezbollah posts in the area, the sources said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military matters.” https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-lebanon-war-hezbollah-09-30-24-intl-hnk?Date=20240930&Profile=cnnbrk&utm_content=1727701705&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter#cm1oyu2yo00053b6mbx617w0l

0

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Walk into a bar brawl. Are they conducting operations? In fact the special force targeted raids are more like combat operations

0

Michimax

9 months ago

When Israeli soldiers enter Lebanon and start fighting, then you might call yourselves winners.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

The IDF?

1

ThisIsSparta

9 months ago

This market has a volume of more than $890,000 and the (false) outcome was manipulated by one scammer.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Both WSJ and Telegraph report troop incursions and raids

1

Michimax

9 months ago

To the "YES" voters desperately searching for evidence, an air raid or espionage is not Ground Combat Operation.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

The WSJ reports special forces launching targeted Raids into Lebanon

0

RBvKrsr7ZfRK

9 months ago

People are saying a solider would have been killed. Sorry to disappoint, it wasn’t combat operations, it was a drone strike. "The Lebanese army said on Monday that a soldier had been killed by an Israeli drone strike while driving through an army checkpoint in southern Lebanon.". Source: NYT

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

What they did is exactly combat operations

0

1111Heyheyhey

9 months ago

Don’t fight on combat operation definition look out full rules, troops on lebanon soil and comfirmed by israel and lebanon both will count to yes only.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Agreed there’s a reason the word operations is in there.

0

Car

9 months ago

"Combat Operation" doesnt have to include shooting: Combat Operations means planning or conducting specific offensive or defensive actions taken to (i) defeat an adversary’s military or other hostile forces or (ii) execute an attack on the United States. Combat Operations include tactical or operational actions, whether related to military, paramilitary, terrorist, intelligence, cyberwarfare or electronic warfare operations.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

“ At the strategic level, a phase continue for years. Not all phases of combat include fighting between armed forces. Phases can, and usually do overlap, and sometimes can be planned for parallel execution, often as part of deception planning. Phases typically found in offensive military operations are: Preparation Intelligence gathering phase[1] Operations planning phase Logistics management phase Deception and counterintelligence phase Assembly phase” https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase_(combat)

0

🤺JustPunched

9 months ago

I think we have enough reporting around the date to be sufficient, but I kinda agree about combat operations. Seems like there has been no reporting that they were there to conduct combat operations.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

“ The basic model of the combat operations area process includes five phases[1] that seek to acquire targets and objectives, allocate and orient appropriate forces for successful engagement of the enemy, make decisions about doctrinal approach to the engagement, execute the plan by engaging in combat, and conduct post-combat intelligence assessment of the success or failure of the operation's plan.[2]” https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combat_operations_process

0

🤺JustPunched

9 months ago

I think we have enough reporting around the date to be sufficient, but I kinda agree about combat operations. Seems like there has been no reporting that they were there to conduct combat operations.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

The WSJ article says it’s been going on for months as well as recently. The report says the raids are in preparation for the wider invasion. They just said today that the preparation activities for the invasion have now completed.

0

ThisIsSparta

9 months ago

Not only this was not combat operation, they didn't even mention the EXACT date. Now seriously, is this a joke? Do you see any troops right now in Lebanon? This Pence mfer should pay for his theft.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

“ The basic model of the combat operations area process includes five phases[1] that seek to acquire targets and objectives, allocate and orient appropriate forces for successful engagement of the enemy, make decisions about doctrinal approach to the engagement”

0

abdendriel

9 months ago

The Combat Operations Process and the phases of the operations for your reference: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combat_operations_process

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

The Combat Operations Process and the phases of the operations for your reference: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combat_operations_process

0

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Thankyou I was just thinking to put together this summary

0

Justifax

9 months ago

This market has nothing to do with Pence. That was unfortunate that so many people donated to him. It has to do with the truth: JPOST - Israeli forces conduct small-scale incursions into Lebanon - report https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-822515 WSJ - Israeli Special Forces Launch Raids Into Lebanon Ahead of Possible Ground Incursion - https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israeli-special-forces-launch-raids-into-lebanon-ahead-of-possible-ground-incursion-bf2fe94d TELEGRAPH: "Israeli special forces cross into Lebanon" https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/09/30/israel-hezbollah-hamas-war-gaza-latest-news/ ALJAZAEERA -Israel raids three towns in southern Lebanon Our colleagues on the ground are reporting that the Israeli army launched raids on al-Abbassieh, Harouf and Bedias in southern Lebanon. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2024/9/30/israel-attacks-lebanon-live-israel-expands-strikes-on-beirut-as-105-killed HEZBO, the primary resolution for this market, confirms timing - https://x.com/ajarabic/status/1840407001639301552?s=46

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

And this is just straight out incorrect. There’s a consensus of credible reporting of Special Forces raids into Lebanon

0

RBvKrsr7ZfRK

9 months ago

As of September 30, 2024, Israeli forces have not yet conducted ground operations in Lebanon, despite intense aerial bombardments. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have carried out extensive airstrikes targeting Hezbollah positions across Lebanon, resulting in significant casualties and infrastructure damage. While there are preparations and mobilizations of Israeli troops along the northern border, indicating a potential for a ground incursion, no ground operations involving Israeli troops on Lebanese soil have been reported.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

There’s another market for invasion. Fee free to bet accordingly.

0

maximian

9 months ago

There’s too little for an actual invasion, it’s a bluff for now, posture

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

It’s worse for people living in Southern Lebanon.

1

ThisIsSparta

9 months ago

If anything, No should have been higher than Yes. What a shitshow lmaooo

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

I wouldn’t bet that 1000’s of people dressed in swimwear standing next to a pool won’t touch the water until Dan Bilzerian arrives.

3

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Israeli special forces have conducted targeted raids in southern Lebanon "in anticipation of a potential ground offensive that could begin as early as this week," several sources told the Wall Street Journal. These raids involved "incursions into Hezbollah tunnels along the border and have taken place recently as well as in the past few months, as part of a broader Israeli effort to diminish the military capabilities of the party along the Lebanese-Israeli border," the sources said. https://x.com/lorienttoday/status/1840704860309585922?s=46

0

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Telegraph stated that small incursions have been occurred based on an Israeli briefing. Then WSJ confirmed the special forces raids

0

abdendriel

9 months ago

This is not a Mossad undercover mission in Beirut. Special Forces targeted raids launched into Lebanon is the consensus of credible reporting.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Scroll down there’s plenty

0

Caligulas.dog

9 months ago

Which credible reporting? Care to link some sources

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

It would be a joke for IDF to stand on the border with their toes touching the blue line and not cross.

0

n/a

9 months ago

It would be a complete joke for this to resolve to "Yes".

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

This is not a Mossad undercover mission in Beirut. Special Forces targeted raids launched into Lebanon is the consensus of credible reporting.

2

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

And that’s exactly what happened

0

crow

9 months ago

Only ground operations involving troops on Lebanese soil will count.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

I think that’s old news. There’s a consensus of credible reporting that they’ve been conducting raids

0

RBvKrsr7ZfRK

9 months ago

"Israel is yet undecided whether to conduct ground operation"

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

The right link https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combat_operations_process

0

abdendriel

9 months ago

Combat operations includes multiple phases https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-september-30-2024/

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Combat operations includes multiple phases https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-september-30-2024/

0

ThisIsSparta

9 months ago

It's simple. 1) Did they do any combat operations? No, they only spied for intelligence. 2) Did this source mention exactly the date? No, and this market is timeframed. 3) Do you see any troops RIGHT NOW in Lebanon? No. I rest my case.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

They’re preparing for an invasion and news came out just hours ago that the preparation is now complete.

0

Car

9 months ago

So, no time mentioned in all articles + no clear reason why they explored the tunnels. So far not enough to resolve to Y

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Cuz when they announce it, it will be the next phase of combat operations that includes the invasion, which is another market

0

n/a

9 months ago

The Telegraph article cites an anonymous ‘Israeli official’ and an ‘Israeli intelligence source.’ Does that sound like a consensus of credible reporting to you? It also uses broad phrases like ‘targeting Hezbollah infrastructure’ and mentions ‘raids’ ahead of a broader ground invasion, but nothing about direct combat operations. If this really were the case, why hasn’t Israel come out and announced an official statement? Anyone can take an article and interpret it their own way, but an official confirmation from Israel is something I’d be completely fine losing this market on.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

The WSJ appears to have gotten it from another source and Telegraph said it was in a briefing.

0

X9504

9 months ago

The problem is nowadays all media copy each other. The WSJ made a report and Times of Israel and Telegraph both cited that same report. Suddenly you have consensus

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Someone posted way down in the thread… I think it came from here https://www.almayadeen.net/latestnews/2024/9/29/%D9%84%D8%A8%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%86--%D9%85%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%B3%D9%84-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D9%8A%D8%A7%D8%AF%D9%8A%D9%86-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AC%D9%86%D9%88%D8%A8--%D8%BA%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%A9-%D8%A5%D8%B3%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%A6%D9%8A%D9%84%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%89-%D8%A8%D9%84%D8%AF%D8%A9-%D9%83%D9%88%D8%AB but there could be more

0

Donkov

9 months ago

Source? @abdendriel

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

And Hezbollah confirmed already in fact

0

Donkov

9 months ago

It means either Hezbollah or Israel confirming would be used. Not both required.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Or yes when everyone thought it was just interest

0

n/a

9 months ago

Whoever bought a No when the pump brought it down to 20-30c is really lucky

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

The rules are pretty clear and they don’t say anything about battles. It only says combat operations and emphasise personnel crossing the border.

2

n/a

9 months ago

The rules explicitly state that the market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli personnel enter Lebanese territory for combat operations. The intent behind these actions matters significantly—if the primary purpose is intelligence gathering or probing, then it doesn’t qualify as a combat operation under the market’s criteria. For those who think intelligence gathering counts as combat operations: the rules are pretty clear. Entering enemy territory just to gather intel or probe isn’t the same as entering for combat. If you’re counting every covert raid as combat, then by that logic, every recon mission would also be a battle, which it clearly isn’t.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Special operations can be carried out by special forces who do combat operations including those mentioned in the phases above

0

CYQ

9 months ago

Special Operations are not Combat Operations. What is your point?

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Caroline Ellison was charged with conspiring to commit wire fraud. It’s a felony and it’s part of criminal Operations. Then again, what if you did targeted raids into a bank?

0

NotJustKen

9 months ago

So would you call it a combat operation if it stops at first phase or should it complete all 5 phases to be a "combat operation"?

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Telegraph already reported this “

0

NotJustKen

9 months ago

Yes. This is so stupid and sentimental pump. I regret not having enough money to buy off their stupidity

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Yes. Sorry I didn’t bring this definition to your attention earlier

0

n/a

9 months ago

If that was the case this market would have shot up to "Yes" as soon as it was posted. Israeli military and intelligence have been aware of and working to address the threat posed by these tunnels for years.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

There are activities in each phase. If it stops after phase 1, the activities carried out in phase 1 were still done.

0

NotJustKen

9 months ago

So would you call it a combat operation if it stops at first phase or should it complete all 5 phases to be a "combat operation"?

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

There’s a reason the rules mention combat operations and not combat alone

0

abdendriel

9 months ago

“ The basic model of the combat operations area process includes five phases[1] that seek to acquire targets and objectives, allocate and orient appropriate forces for successful engagement of the enemy…” https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combat_operations_process

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

“ The basic model of the combat operations area process includes five phases[1] that seek to acquire targets and objectives, allocate and orient appropriate forces for successful engagement of the enemy…” https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combat_operations_process

1

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

And this isn’t Mossad, it’s special forces. Similarly, when SEAL team 6 targets you in a raid, you’re not safe

0

Justifax

9 months ago

plural noun: raids a sudden attack on an enemy by troops, aircraft, or other armed forces in warfare.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Telegraph said this too. WSJ confirmed it in a “consensus of credible reporting” kinda way

1

Justifax

9 months ago

Yes, the headline is "Launch" which means its actively happening. For this market to resolve NO would be saying the WSJ is a liar. Please.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Remember when US officials said “they may have already started small incursions…”. This is what they were talking about

1

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

To be clear the WSJ article is not about undercover missions in Beirut in prep for the pager attack etc. It’s recent Raids Into Lebanon. US officials said days ago they may have been doing this

3

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

That was the briefing from days ago. This update is not about undercover missions but about RAIDS. Some people are even complaining that they were taking hostages

0

Mr.Damon

9 months ago

"The report claimed that Israel has sent undercover commandos “deep into the country” to carry out “sensitive intelligence missions,” quoting officials as saying that the military’s willingness to carry out daring missions sets it apart from other countries’ intelligence agencies and units." not combat operations

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Yea they’re doing the raids to prepare for the big announcement.

0

Mr.Damon

9 months ago

"While Israel has not announced a ground incursion into Lebanon, there have been reports of incidents across the border ever since Hezbollah-led forces began attacking communities and military posts in northern Israel on October 8, purportedly to support Gaza amid the war against Hamas there."

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Big respect and hope you earn on those Yes shares!

2

kekkone

9 months ago

I was wrong. Many were right. Congrats!

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Yes shares you mean

0

ThisIsSparta

9 months ago

No should be at 95c already, lol. Easy 10%.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Good move

0

mr.ozi

9 months ago

For disclosure, I had 3k of 'No' until 26h ago when the news of those raids came out. I don't like being in dispute territory, so I backed out from this bet. It's funny that we have a second wave of reaction to the same news, just delayed by a day.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

WSJ confirms the Telegraph report. That’s called consensus of credible reporting. The latest strike on Yemen comes as Israeli officials briefed that there had been a “limited” ground incursion into southern Lebanon, involving special forces troops." https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/09/29/israel-hezbollah-war-lebanon-hamas-gaza-latest-news/

1

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

US officials came out of a meeting pissed off saying it may have already started. Telegraph outright stated that it did. Even No-holders think they’ve been doing this continuously since 2006.

0

Justifax

9 months ago

Raids are combat operations. These markets are largely resolved on headlines. wsj is the probably the most credible news org, and this has been confirmed by hezbollah. it's the entire point of this market to be a light version of invasion.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

The article says “into southern Lebanon”. Disputed territory is another part

0

mr.ozi

9 months ago

This is a dispute territory. Does intelligence operation classify as a combat operation? I guess not, until they are engaged and start shooting. Let's see when more news comes.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

They’ve been raiding Lebanon 🏴‍☠️

0

mr.ozi

9 months ago

This is a dispute territory. Does intelligence operation classify as a combat operation? I guess not, until they are engaged and start shooting. Let's see when more news comes.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

And y’all thought I was spamming

1

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

They could, resolving this market

0

galba

9 months ago

Wouldn't Hezbollah play the victim card immediately?

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

It’s listed as a source in the rules of this market.

1

galba

9 months ago

Wouldn't Hezbollah play the victim card immediately?

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

*No holders

0

abdendriel

9 months ago

Why would US officials say Israel may have crossed the border already following their discussion with Israel about their plans? Funny how most of us believe it’s happened already, but Yes holders are now coming out of the woodwork at the mention of possible 50/50 resolution.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Why would US officials say Israel may have crossed the border already following their discussion with Israel about their plans? Funny how most of us believe it’s happened already, but Yes holders are now coming out of the woodwork at the mention of possible 50/50 resolution.

1

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Invasion announcement is another market. They haven’t decided on the wider invasion yet, but like you rightly said, troops have been operating in Lebanon since 2006

1

kekkone

9 months ago

There's a lot of maybes against one definete NO by Jerusalem Post.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

“ The latest strike on Yemen comes as Israeli officials briefed that there had been a “limited” ground incursion into southern Lebanon, involving special forces troops.” https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/09/29/israel-hezbollah-war-lebanon-hamas-gaza-latest-news/

0

aced

9 months ago

Warmongers who are trying to link Israeli spies that have been gathering information since 2006 to military entering territory for combat operations are funny lol. Yestards, you are about to lose - move on to the November market

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

You mean Hezbollah listed as a resolution source?

0

aced

9 months ago

Warmongers who are trying to link Israeli spies that have been gathering information since 2006 to military entering territory for combat operations are funny lol. Yestards, you are about to lose - move on to the November market

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Hezbollah said it happened. And they’re listed as a source in the rules. Telegraph also says Israel said it happened during a briefing.

2

abdendriel

9 months ago

With a news source reporting that the exact Yes condition has happened and the rest stating that the US reaction to talks with Israelis is that it may have happened, how can this resolve to No?

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

With a news source reporting that the exact Yes condition has happened and the rest stating that the US reaction to talks with Israelis is that it may have happened, how can this resolve to No?

1

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

https://x.com/endgameww3/status/1840617765637353621?s=46

0

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

The reporting you’re talking about points to Yes or Maybe.

0

kekkone

9 months ago

The whales might eat you but there’s no case for this to resolve yes with what’s been reported.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Consensus of credible sources is that it may have already happened. 1 source says it did happen. Burden of proof should be on No holders. Otherwise, you could say all news is possibly erroneous.

1

kekkone

9 months ago

Israel has not ”briefed” a British Newspaper about a ground incursion, leaving everyone else in the dark.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

There’s no evidence or consensus that it’s a probable error. The consensus is that US officials came out of a meeting with Israeli officials saying that it seems it may have already happened. A mainstream reporting source reported that it has happened. The burden of proof is now on the No side. Which source listed in the rules is going report decisively that it didn’t happen?

1

kekkone

9 months ago

One tweet in arabic, one probable error from a British Newspaper. The evidence is not there. Nice volatility play though.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

What’s the evidence that the Telegraph article is fake?

0

kekkone

9 months ago

Israel has not ”briefed” a British Newspaper about a ground incursion, leaving everyone else in the dark.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Paul Niki from the Telegraph is based in Israel. Reporters do get in contact with IDF and report on what they hear, which becomes a source of reporting. Consensus of credible reporting now is that US believes an incursion may have already been done. 1 source reported it has been. From your post, you seem to believe it was always happening. 50/50 resolution possible

0

kekkone

9 months ago

Israel has not ”briefed” a British Newspaper about a ground incursion, leaving everyone else in the dark.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Heard all of Halevi’s verbal briefings in Hebrew?

0

kekkone

9 months ago

Israel has not ”briefed” a British Newspaper about a ground incursion, leaving everyone else in the dark.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

“limited” ground incursion into southern Lebanon, involving special forces troops." Sounds like combat ops if its troops doing an incursion

0

Justifax

9 months ago

The problem is nobody believes Hezbollah, as they are a known terrorist group that kills people

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Can you share the source of hezbollah declaring they are thwarting the raids?

1

Remontada

9 months ago

So, we have US officials leaking this morning that "limited" cross border incursions may be occuring, and we have Hezbollah declaring they are thwarting such incursions. Remember also, raids are not as newsworthy as "full invasion", "Sa'ar In", "Hezbollah new leader". We have to dig through the noise.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Anyone can interpret this briefing? https://videoidf.azureedge.net/de0e8cf9-6aa4-4705-bd5d-8783aa71e3a4

1

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

If someone can find the Israeli briefing mentioned in the Telegraph article, this is resolved

1

peasant

9 months ago

Guess “combat operations” is going to be doing a LOT of work here

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

According to the Telegraph, Israeli officials report this has already happened

1

abdendriel

9 months ago

"The latest strike on Yemen comes as Israeli officials briefed that there had been a “limited” ground incursion into southern Lebanon, involving special forces troops." https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/09/29/israel-hezbollah-war-lebanon-hamas-gaza-latest-news/

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

9 months ago

"The latest strike on Yemen comes as Israeli officials briefed that there had been a “limited” ground incursion into southern Lebanon, involving special forces troops." https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/09/29/israel-hezbollah-war-lebanon-hamas-gaza-latest-news/

4

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Respect

0

General.William.T.Sherman

9 months ago

I have sold my no’s and filling yes’s. Still not fully convinced Israel is moving in within 4 weeks. But if the market is giving it a 50% chance, you have to lean yes. They will continue to move assets to the border and that will keep the bid there. The rules of this market that it’s any territory of Lebanon is also making me lean yes with odds down this much this quickly.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Respect

0

General.William.T.Sherman

9 months ago

I have sold my no’s and filling yes’s. Still not fully convinced Israel is moving in within 4 weeks. But if the market is giving it a 50% chance, you have to lean yes. They will continue to move assets to the border and that will keep the bid there. The rules of this market that it’s any territory of Lebanon is also making me lean yes with odds down this much this quickly.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

abdendriel

9 months ago

“We have momentum. Israel is winning…together we will fight and together we will win” https://x.com/israelipm/status/1840124607094837281?s=46

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

abdendriel

9 months ago

https://x.com/pulseofpal/status/1840059021211922619?s=46

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

abdendriel

9 months ago

You should be able to sell. I found if you di a market order, it seems to work better with round numbers.

0

FamilyCapital

9 months ago

only me can not sell shares in this market?

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

abdendriel

9 months ago

US Defence Secretary told Yoav Gallant that US have their backs no matter what.

0

abdendriel

9 months ago

https://x.com/media_043/status/1840057217367568890?s=46

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

abdendriel

9 months ago

https://x.com/media_043/status/1840057217367568890?s=46

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Israeli attacks contribute to control of which planes can land at Lebanese airport. https://m.jpost.com/middle-east/article-822208

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

abdendriel

9 months ago

https://x.com/idf/status/1840039832661155968?s=46

0

abdendriel

9 months ago

Sirens going off in Tel Aviv. IDF telling the world that militants with rockets across the border are still a threat

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Sirens going off in Tel Aviv. IDF telling the world that militants with rockets across the border are still a threat

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

abdendriel

9 months ago

IDF announcement on Operations on the Northern Front coming up: https://x.com/idf/status/1840014737049801013?s=46

3

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

abdendriel

9 months ago

https://youtu.be/1DaZC_tNo_Q?si=CNw9Q8aC6Cqg1CL-

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Tanks 2 min away from the town, ceasefire off the table, IDF chief declared the air strikes are prep for boots on the ground, angry Bibi speech. Are the odds of this market really similar to those of the US election?

2

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Math quiz: the nearest border town is 2km away. A typical tank can go 60 km/hr. How long does it take for the tank to get to the town?

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

abdendriel

9 months ago

“The West are naive to believe in the idealistic fantasy of ceasefire. In the Middle East, we kill our enemies.” - simultaneous thoughts of both Netanyahu and Khamenei

2

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Why wait for Iranian forces to reach the border? IDF are already telling border towns to evacuate.

3

Nasrallah remains Hezbollah leader through Oct 31?

abdendriel

9 months ago

https://x.com/cnnbrk/status/1839994527404183829?s=46

0

Nasrallah remains Hezbollah leader through Oct 31?

abdendriel

9 months ago

tbh I have a feeling IDF and Mossad have solid evidence but they can’t reveal the source.

0

palisade

9 months ago

tbh i have a feeling hes dead

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

abdendriel

9 months ago

But rockers still came out of Lebanon so the evacuated Israelis still can’t return

1

denizz

9 months ago

By targeting Hezbollah’s leadership in a major Beirut airstrike on Friday, Israel is hoping to avoid launching a ground invasion in Lebanon, a senior Israeli official told reporters on Friday. The strike targeting Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah and other top officials in the terror group huddling at a main command center in Beirut’s Dahiyeh suburb was aimed at breaking Hezbollah, the senior official explained

Nasrallah remains Hezbollah leader through Oct 31?

abdendriel

9 months ago

https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20240928-dead-at-64-hezbollah-leader-hassan-nasrallah-lived-a-clandestine-life-on-the-run

0

Nasrallah remains Hezbollah leader through Oct 31?

abdendriel

9 months ago

But if they’re no longer hunting him, they probably have intel that they don’t have to anymore

0

Justifax

9 months ago

IDF has a very long history of exaggerating the truth, and Hezbollah might be trying to trick or embarrass them. That said, I wouldn't pay more than 3c for this.

Nasrallah remains Hezbollah leader through Oct 31?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Resolution source doesn’t mention Hezbollah

0

VaithunPhuSang-Fabric

9 months ago

if hezbollar will not notify for nasrallah to die, the market will result 50-50 😂

Nasrallah remains Hezbollah leader through Oct 31?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Rules don’t mention Hezbollah as a source. Anyway Hezbollah will probably use vengeance for his death as justification for further strikes.

0

Nasrallah remains Hezbollah leader through Oct 31?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Mossad: https://x.com/mossadil/status/1839727363380146374?s=46

0

Nasrallah remains Hezbollah leader through Oct 31?

abdendriel

9 months ago

How can his death be confirmed? They can’t reach him but their pagers are busted

2

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Can’t be bothered to find the exact video when he was with the IDF

0

abdendriel

9 months ago

Conricus said in Oct last year, something like “we will change the Middle East. And it will be better for Israel and it will be better for the Palestinians, but there will not be… Hamas. But that is all..to come”

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Conricus said in Oct last year, something like “we will change the Middle East. And it will be better for Israel and it will be better for the Palestinians, but there will not be… Hamas. But that is all..to come”

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

abdendriel

9 months ago

"You hear the jets overhead; we have been striking all day. This is both to prepare the ground for your possible entry and to continue degrading Hezbollah," Lt Gen Herzi Halevi said.

1

Car

9 months ago

Killing Nasrallah is like their final mission

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

abdendriel

9 months ago

The Israeli tanks waiting at the border were there just in case the air strike did not happen. Now they’ll pack up and go home..

0

Car

9 months ago

Killing Nasrallah is like their final mission

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Back out as in forfeit control of border towns?

0

Car

9 months ago

Now that Nasrallah is dead, Hezbollah will back out of the war.

Nasrallah remains Hezbollah leader through Oct 31?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Car? What do you think of Nasrallah?

0

Justifax

9 months ago

car does this scam a lot ... he's done it in several markets. unless you're very familiar with this scam, you will lose your money to him

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Suspect the diplomats walking out of his speech would’ve been a. All to action for Bibi. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0J2QdDbelmY

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

abdendriel

9 months ago

When someone decides who can enter and exit an area, they control it.

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Making $1000 = take profit or wait and hope for another month

0

Car

9 months ago

Another day another day without invasion

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Bibi just got $8.7B. Will he wait for Hezbollah to re-appoint the eliminated commanders, man the tunnels, reload missiles and set traps all over the border villages?

2

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

abdendriel

9 months ago

They will continue discussions on how to reach their goals. Which includes usage of the new $8B.

1

scottilicious

9 months ago

CNN: "n a statement released Thursday night, the prime minister’s office said that “Israel shares the aims of the U.S.-led initiative of enabling people along our northern border to return safely and securely to their homes.” “Israel appreciates the US efforts,” the statement said, and promised that discussions would continue “in the coming days.”

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Remember this? https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/10/15/politics/biden-60-minutes-interview-gaza-israel

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

abdendriel

9 months ago

https://www.newarab.com/news/explainer-will-israel-carry-out-invasion-south-lebanon

0

草莓软糖是男人还是女人 (man or woman)?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Where’s the Adam’s Apple?

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

abdendriel

9 months ago

IDF made a video showing exactly which spots just across the border Hezbollah are hiding arms. “Enough is enough” - IDF. Watch from 3:27 https://x.com/idf/status/1839251492655571063?s=46

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Israel invaded and controlled parts of Lebanon in 1978 and 1982.

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

abdendriel

9 months ago

https://x.com/timesofisrael/status/1839291995900227922?s=46

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

abdendriel

9 months ago

The lengthy and intricately planned pager attack would be wasted if they gave time for Hezbollah to regroup. They timed the pagers now for a reason

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

abdendriel

9 months ago

If Israel had an appetite for ceasefire, where’s the Gaza one?

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

abdendriel

9 months ago

New Middle East: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/10/16/new-new-middle-east-israel-region-saudi-relations-fututre/ — Boots https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/09/25/israel-hamas-war-latest-news-hezbollah-64/ — New Phase https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/gallant-says-israels-focus-has-moved-to-northern-front-as-new-phase-of-war-begins/

0

Donkov

9 months ago

source?

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

abdendriel

9 months ago

“The New Middle East”, “Next Phase”, “Boots” - our thoughts become our words and our words become our actions and our actions become who we are.

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

abdendriel

9 months ago

US-centric world thinks that whatever the US asks for will happen

0

Justifax

9 months ago

After all this time, you'd think we'd learn that 90% of the news about 'ceasefire' is likely hopium BS.

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Maybe he’s IDF, tying up his bootlaces already

0

HaterzLoserz

9 months ago

https://i.chzbgr.com/full/9303007232/hDB0D547F/photo-caption-me-after-every-terror-attack-isit-time-for-the-crusade-yet-memegeneratornet

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Netanyahu dismisses reports of imminent Lebanon ceasefire and tells Israeli military to fight "with full force" -CNN

3

草莓软糖是男人还是女人 (man or woman)?

abdendriel

9 months ago

How old is she and did she grow up in China? I don’t think puberty blockers and gender reassignment was a thing in China back then.

0

Gena🐊

9 months ago

Do hormones change the bone structure? No!. This should be at 3c, because there is a small chance we don't get any answer and a small chance we get a wrong answer. She is 100% a girl, I know because I'm an expert of finding and avoiding trans in classified ads

草莓软糖是男人还是女人 (man or woman)?

abdendriel

9 months ago

I feel like only a girl who’s playing with you would post this: https://x.com/gummybear1771/status/1839192607517515816?s=46

0

Elon Musk # of tweets Sept 20-27?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Here comes the tweet barrage

0

草莓软糖是男人还是女人 (man or woman)?

abdendriel

9 months ago

1. Maybe polymarket is sampling their user demographic (Chinese test) 2. The person wants ppl to read all her tweets

0

Scoobs

9 months ago

What the hell is going on here

Elon Musk # of tweets Sept 20-27?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Has anyone analysed his intrastate tweeting patterns?

0

BrokenIKey

9 months ago

Nope. He's actually busy doing some stuff today. Obviously he'll still post more than 199 times.

草莓软糖是男人还是女人 (man or woman)?

abdendriel

9 months ago

She tweeted that when she went out, her deepest impression was when someone asked other if she was trans. Can’t help but think that the question was unexpected for her, revealing the whole joke.

0

草莓软糖是男人还是女人 (man or woman)?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Huobi doesn’t have to prove it, just has to announce it. From her tweets it looks like she met the CEO of polymarket and they decided to end the speculation through this market.

0

Jessethecook69

9 months ago

guys, what if they use Huobi KYC to prove that on the ID she is man/woman?

草莓软糖是男人还是女人 (man or woman)?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Still has his mojo?

0

Donkov

9 months ago

Its a man, baby

Elon Musk # of tweets Sept 20-27?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Just wait, he needs some sleep and he’ll wake up to a barrage of responses on his prior day of epic tweeting

0

草莓软糖是男人还是女人 (man or woman)?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Where’s the Adam’s Apple? It’s even more prominent in skinny guys

1

草莓软糖是男人还是女人 (man or woman)?

abdendriel

9 months ago

This is just a way for her to make money as the ultimate insider

1

Caroline Ellison prison time?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Betting against the mainstream when you believe something. Lesson learned from the subprime crisis. And Ackman!

3

DeucePapi

9 months ago

You fucks really gaslit me. I believed I was retarded for thinking she would go to prison.

Caroline Ellison prison time?

abdendriel

9 months ago

The possibility of no prison time is so surprising that it made news

0

XiJinPing

9 months ago

anyone know why No prison is so high? why it pump?

Caroline Ellison prison time?

abdendriel

9 months ago

https://x.com/reyencu/status/1838615020906688847?s=46

0

Caroline Ellison prison time?

abdendriel

9 months ago

The articles stemmed from tweets about the polymarket odds actually. MSM found shocking enough that she could skip jail that it was newsworthy

0

0xc26E37C84509c72b58171bEc9286fa83c73f5366-1719543164274

9 months ago

Am I crazy here or do the recent articles stating Ellison is likely to get no prison time make it sound like the prosecutors didn't have enough info to get a guilty verdict on SBF. There was tons of evidence SBF stole billions. Ellison's testimony helped with the conviction, but without her SBF would have been found guilty anyway.

Caroline Ellison prison time?

abdendriel

9 months ago

The recent articles make the Judge even less likely to be a complete pushover.

1

0xc26E37C84509c72b58171bEc9286fa83c73f5366-1719543164274

9 months ago

Am I crazy here or do the recent articles stating Ellison is likely to get no prison time make it sound like the prosecutors didn't have enough info to get a guilty verdict on SBF. There was tons of evidence SBF stole billions. Ellison's testimony helped with the conviction, but without her SBF would have been found guilty anyway.

Caroline Ellison prison time?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Do you think the emotional stress of being a criminal is sufficient punishment for the crime itself, as long as you can tell the story to the cops?

0

Caroline Ellison prison time?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Where is Elizabeth Holmes today? Pretending technology worked when it didn’t got her 11 years. Now, Ellison straight out stole money from retail investors and made fake balance sheets.

0

Caroline Ellison prison time?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Prosecutors make it clear in the sea that they won’t charge her for further crimes but no promise of sentencing

0

Eube

9 months ago

I'm guessing that Caroline Ellison has struck a plea deal with the Department of Justice.

Caroline Ellison sentenced to prison?

abdendriel

9 months ago

To clarify, prosecutors are NOT asking for no prison time. They have no sentencing recommendation. It’s Ellison’s attorneys who are asking for that.

0

jayminho

9 months ago

A lot of people claiming “ohh the prosecutors asked for leniency” lol. Pal. That’s like bargaining a car.. it’s advertised for 10k, you bring down to 8k , seller will get pissed , will not do it, however you can , maybe, deal 9k.. that’s it. Her defense team asking leniency it’s to bring down and try negotiate a 60 months sentence to a 48 months.. that’s it. That’s all. Standard move.

Caroline Ellison sentenced to prison?

abdendriel

9 months ago

A few months won’t ruin her life, a blip like CZ’s.

0

Master-bettor

9 months ago

i have a tingly feeling in my heart that tells me she'll be in jail

Caroline Ellison prison time?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Before getting caught: “none of this non-hierarchical bullshit…there should be vicious power struggles for higher ranks”. Then after getting caught: *cry*cry*cry*. Judge has seen this over and over.

0

Caroline Ellison prison time?

abdendriel

9 months ago

If a thief could skip jail by recounting the details of the heist (if they got caught) there would be a lot more thieves.

4

Caroline Ellison sentenced to prison?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Judge Kaplan still has to sentence Gary Wang and Nishad Singh. Ellison’s sentence will be a precedent. If the only white person out of the 3 remaining accomplices walk free while the others are in prison, Kaplan would be in shambles. If they all walk free that’s unacceptable too. It’s gonna be varying degrees of jail time for each of them

0

JoebamaBiden

9 months ago

Judges are buying No

Caroline Ellison prison time?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Kaplan still has to sentence Gary Wang and Nishad Singh who also cooperated. Ellison’s sentence is going to be a precedent for the other two. All 3 remaining accomplices are likely to get varying jail terms depending on their culpability.

2

DeucePapi

9 months ago

Imagine the headline: CEO of FTX Gets No Prison Time

Caroline Ellison prison time?

abdendriel

9 months ago

You had to ask what a Google doc was, but managed to get a USDC wallet

2

Eridpnc

9 months ago

Hello guys My name is Lewis Kaplan and unfortunately I will not be available to play this market tomorrow, as I have work at like 3:00 PM. Look forward to chatting with y'all later!!!

Caroline Ellison sentenced to prison?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Coin flip to determine how many years you mean

1

mango-lassi

9 months ago

I heard the judges would be using a coin flip to decide the outcome so I went with NO

Caroline Ellison prison time?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Correction: “not to charge her for additional crimes above the ones she admitted to”. She’s still charged with 7 felonies with a guideline of 110 years for defrauding the public

1

abdendriel

9 months ago

Exactly. The plea deal itself explicitly states that they can’t promise any sentence or even recommendation of sentence. They only promised not to charge her for the 7 she admitted to. And how can she ask for time served if she was never in custody?

Caroline Ellison prison time?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Exactly. The plea deal itself explicitly states that they can’t promise any sentence or even recommendation of sentence. They only promised not to charge her for the 7 she admitted to. And how can she ask for time served if she was never in custody?

1

fate

9 months ago

If the government originally intended to give her no prison time, they would have offered her immunity.

Caroline Ellison prison time?

abdendriel

9 months ago

From the actual plea deal: “It is understood that the sentence to be imposed upon the defendant is within the sole discretion of the Court, This Office cannot, and does not, make any promise of representation as to what sentence the defendant will receive, and will not recommend any specific sentence to the Court.” The deal was if she pleaded guilty to 7 felonies, they wouldn’t charge her for more, except tax fraud.

0

Caroline Ellison prison time?

abdendriel

9 months ago

She’ll be Crypto Anna Delvey

0

jayminho

9 months ago

I think if she gets jail time it’s clearly a sign of this uber sexist chauvinist patriarchal society , women are not meant to go to jail. No matter what.

Caroline Ellison prison time?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Judge Kaplan will unlikely make himself a non-factor by just giving everyone what they asked for. He’s not a waiter asking for attorneys to order from a menu.

0

GrumpdaGump

9 months ago

Bernie Madoff's former prosecutor saying no jail time: https://x.com/coinage_media/status/1838326091024420933

Caroline Ellison prison time?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Once she gets a lenient jail sentence it will resolve.

1

BAM

9 months ago

sucks we gotta wait until december 31st for market resolve

Caroline Ellison prison time?

abdendriel

9 months ago

“Her sentence will likely be about two-years in the slammer for her role in the failed crypto exchange FTX, says Carl Volz, a Chicago-based securities attorney who has defended crypto clients.“

0

Caroline Ellison sentenced to prison?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Begging for leniency vs a 110 year guideline? Even 1 year would be lenient. Check out US v Spoutz where Judge Kaplan sentenced Spoutz to 41 months for falsifying docs on a piece of art. Same guilty plea, even bigger letter from reputable people begging for leniency - still got 41 months in jail.

0

jayminho

9 months ago

A lot of people claiming “ohh the prosecutors asked for leniency” lol. Pal. That’s like bargaining a car.. it’s advertised for 10k, you bring down to 8k , seller will get pissed , will not do it, however you can , maybe, deal 9k.. that’s it. Her defense team asking leniency it’s to bring down and try negotiate a 60 months sentence to a 48 months.. that’s it. That’s all. Standard move.

Caroline Ellison prison time?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Judge Kaplan rejected time served for Guantanamo Bay detainees in past cases. He won’t consider Ellison’s novella writing and staying at home with parents as time served just because she’s sad.

1

BallzToTheWalz

10 months ago

What happens when she gets time served? This seems like another market begging for disputes

Caroline Ellison prison time?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Has Kaplan ever sentenced someone to house arrest only? He even rejected Guantanamo bay detainees’ request for time served

0

jayminho

9 months ago

one thing is not clear here, does house arrest counts as jail time ?

Caroline Ellison prison time?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Judge Kaplan presided over US v Spoutz. “ Spoutz pled guilty in the case of US v. Spoutz to one count of wire fraud related to the sale of falsely attributed artwork accompanied by forged provenance documents... Dozens of character letters from Spoutz's friends, family, colleagues and clients written on his behalf begging for leniency were presented to the court including letters from former New York Yankees… Spoutz was sentenced by the Honorable Lewis A. Kaplan in United States District Court for the Southern District of New York to 41 months in federal prison”. And that’s just 1 count of wire fraud for faking a piece of art.

0

Caroline Ellison sentenced to prison?

abdendriel

9 months ago

CZ got 4 months. It was a blip. That’s leniency, a short stint in white collar low security prison where she can finish her novella.

2

Caroline Ellison prison time?

abdendriel

9 months ago

https://abcnews.go.com/amp/US/lewis-kaplan-nonsense-judge-overseeing-trumps-federal-defamation/story?id=106402597

0

abdendriel

9 months ago

Judge Kaplan is also doing the Trump trials. They’re calling him the “no-nonsense” judge who isn’t swayed by the media.

Caroline Ellison prison time?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Judge Kaplan is also doing the Trump trials. They’re calling him the “no-nonsense” judge who isn’t swayed by the media.

0

Caroline Ellison prison time?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Poor girl. Teacher’s pet is going to get a wake-up call. University admissions tactics like volunteering and writing novellas aren’t going to excuse you from a felony sentence in the grown-up judicial system.

1

Caroline Ellison prison time?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Depends on your time zone. It’s on 24th

0

Barfly

9 months ago

Does anyone know what time the sentencing is today?

Caroline Ellison prison time?

abdendriel

9 months ago

She’d be better off serving a few months in low security white collar prison and telling her story, having a NFLX about her. If she didn’t do time, she’d be a poster child for inequality and that will be thrown in her face every time she does any public appearance.

0

Caroline Ellison sentenced to prison?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Dunno what strategy her attorneys were employing when disclosing that she was working on a novella. Low security white collar prison won’t interfere with that, it might give her some time and inspiration to make it better

1

Caroline Ellison prison time?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Hope no-ones making the same mistake as I did, buying the wrong side. It’s a double negative unlike the other market.

0

Pump

9 months ago

it is obvious, I mean its not 100% bet, but definitely not a 50/50

Caroline Ellison prison time?

abdendriel

9 months ago

If Kaplan doesn’t believe paying back stolen money excuses a thief from prison, why would finding a new boyfriend, writing novellas, teaching English excuse anything? Telling the truth in court is a baseline expectation.

0

abdendriel

9 months ago

"A thief who takes his loot to Las Vegas and successfully bets the stolen money is not entitled to a discount on the sentence by using his Las Vegas winnings to pay back what he stole." -Judge Kaplan on SBF. Judge Kaplan will be consistent with thief #2, ratting on Thief #1 after being caught doesn’t absolve crime.

Caroline Ellison prison time?

abdendriel

9 months ago

"A thief who takes his loot to Las Vegas and successfully bets the stolen money is not entitled to a discount on the sentence by using his Las Vegas winnings to pay back what he stole." -Judge Kaplan on SBF. Judge Kaplan will be consistent with thief #2, ratting on Thief #1 after being caught doesn’t absolve crime.

0

Caroline Ellison prison time?

abdendriel

9 months ago

In the Enron scandal, lenient meant single digit years

0

Caroline Ellison prison time?

abdendriel

9 months ago

No, she pleaded guilty on 7 counts of felony. Confessed not innocent.

3

TimeQuestion

9 months ago

Innocent of all charges until proven otherwise.

Caroline Ellison prison time?

abdendriel

9 months ago

Why is this a debate? She’s hardly spent any time in custody. Testifying as a witness and getting rejected from volunteering jobs doesn’t count as time served.

0

BallzToTheWalz

10 months ago

What happens when she gets time served? This seems like another market begging for disputes

Will Trump debate Kamala on Sept 10?

abdendriel

10 months ago

Could’ve just bet yes

0

Kermit

10 months ago

We'll all either be very entertained and have meme material for years, or we'll make a little money. Either way it's a win-win. Can't decide which I'd rather have. Debate would be better for the States and essentially the whole world, but who doesn't like winning a bet? If only we could have both.

Will Trump debate Kamala on Sept 10?

abdendriel

10 months ago

Rules are agnostic of debate length. If the candidates were shown arguing at a live sporting event, they would have debated on a live broadcast.

0

FilthyAnimal

10 months ago

What happens if the debate is cancelled midway due to unforeseen circumstances and doesn’t complete? What if one of them walks off the set? What if they decide to finish/restart at a later date, I would imagine it should resolve as No as the definition/rule refers to September 10th specifically.

Will Trump debate Kamala on Sept 10?

abdendriel

10 months ago

Mics will be muted, she won’t have to deal with interruptions, even though her campaign her hoping he’d interrupt. She’ll try it and the media will spin it in her favour. If she quits, she’s just proving she can’t do it.

0

Kermit

10 months ago

This debate will either make or break Kamala Harris' campaign. If she's successful her numbers will soar, but if she doesn't do well it will sink her campaign. She must be able to improvise quickly and humourously with wit to compete with Trump and must have material other than her famous "I'm speaking" quip. This debate is extremely dangerous for her candidacy, so she has to out-Trump Trump without appearing like every man's screeching ex-wife.

Will Trump debate Kamala on Sept 10?

abdendriel

10 months ago

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4863963-how-to-watch-trump-harris-debate/

0

Will Trump debate Kamala on Sept 10?

abdendriel

10 months ago

One good trade doesn’t need to actually resolve in your direction either. You’ve got a few days before the debate to pump the No to make a healthy profit. All you need is to convince a few more people to provide some No liquidity

1

CansGonzalez

10 months ago

Just bought more NO at these insane prices.

Will Trump debate Kamala on Sept 10?

abdendriel

10 months ago

Trump thinks Harris’s interview was weak. Harris thinks Trump is scared. Both agreed to the rules. Both think they’ll beat the other. ABC can’t wait to broadcast the event of the year. The world wants to see it. The only ones who don’t want it to happen are the polymarket no holders now

4

Will Trump debate Kamala on Sept 10?

abdendriel

10 months ago

Train wreck will be during the debate

0

CansGonzalez

10 months ago

The train wreck will unravel this week. Sept 10th will be debate-free. Mark it.

Will Trump debate Kamala on Sept 10?

abdendriel

10 months ago

Quitting is political suicide. Debate outcomes can be spun by either side but quitting is just putting yourself in the spotlight in a negative light

0

CoconutsForTrump

10 months ago

There is no way Kamela shows up to this. She will get sick with covid and "reschedule"

Will Trump debate Kamala on Sept 10?

abdendriel

10 months ago

Unique as of the name. Trump and Kamala are more unique. So many people called Harris or Donald

0

Grrrenouille

10 months ago

Why is Harris referred to by her first name and not Trump? I'm sure it's unintentional, but it's not great

Will Trump debate Kamala on Sept 10?

abdendriel

10 months ago

She’ll look worse if she pulls out than if she just went ahead as she is. No matter how the debate goes, both sides with have their favourite clips to share. But if she pulls out, the whole discourse will be about her failure.

0

CansGonzalez

10 months ago

Of course, it's not her style. She likes to cancel things last minute. This is actually more bullish "No" news... I'm buying more shares.s.

Will Trump debate Kamala on Sept 10?

abdendriel

10 months ago

Yea, more liquidity for No’s wouldn’t be bad. No holders can have an out and Yes holders can double down.

0

abdendriel

10 months ago

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/09/03/poll-dems-boosted-gop-shaken-as-harris-trump-race-is-joined/74995919007/

Will Trump debate Kamala on Sept 10?

abdendriel

10 months ago

“ Kamala Harris heads into Trump debate with lead, rising enthusiasm” - USA Today headline

0

abdendriel

10 months ago

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/09/03/poll-dems-boosted-gop-shaken-as-harris-trump-race-is-joined/74995919007/

Will Trump debate Kamala on Sept 10?

abdendriel

10 months ago

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/09/03/poll-dems-boosted-gop-shaken-as-harris-trump-race-is-joined/74995919007/

0

Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?

abdendriel

10 months ago

The funny thing is nobody doubts this happened anymore

1

Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?

abdendriel

10 months ago

The drone pilot

2

BlackSky123

10 months ago

I would like to congratulate the yes chads who bought for less than 2 cents. Slava Ukraini.

Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?

abdendriel

10 months ago

Instead of disputing, why not spend your money on collecting interest on musk tweets.

0

Lkeprfuh

10 months ago

Clearly early proposal, will be disputed again.

Ukraine hits Moscow by Sept 30?

abdendriel

10 months ago

Market resolves by credible sources. WSJ reports the drone was destroyed by detonation

0

cozywild

10 months ago

The drones were destroyed, guys

Ukraine hits Moscow by Sept 30?

abdendriel

10 months ago

The videos are verified by BBC Verify. WSJ says at least one detonated above the plant

0

cozywild

10 months ago

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Do whatever you want with that.

Ukraine hits Moscow by Sept 30?

abdendriel

10 months ago

WSJ says it detonated above the plant. If the pilot was able to detonate it, it wasn’t intercepted. That’s how drones are meant to work.

0

boops

10 months ago

The mass media information is more significant. And they all say the drones were intercepted. Just like the Venezuela president elections case. Yes voters still have a month. I think it would be fair.

Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?

abdendriel

10 months ago

Not trying to make anyone feel bad. Hopefully it’s true that no-one was hurt.

0

x4839F00491B7b5E0Ad83c28A3BeDd0aFCB9A6D20

10 months ago

Lol, Russian nationalists desperately trying to claim Moscow wasn’t hit by Ukraine, while holding yes shares. Your money speaks louder than your national pride 🤣

Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?

abdendriel

10 months ago

It’s now clear that the attack happened on-time, on-target, on-headline-of-major-news-outlets, on-BBC-Verify-video.

2

Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?

abdendriel

10 months ago

Who can verify Ukraine’s claim if they did claim responsibility? We might as well not resolve markets then

0

abdendriel

10 months ago

Even if Zelenskyy says he was a the pilot of that one drone, it’s still a Ukrainian claim. Who

Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?

abdendriel

10 months ago

Even if Zelenskyy says he was a the pilot of that one drone, it’s still a Ukrainian claim. Who

0

Fred19999

10 months ago

Show me a shred of evidence day Ukraine operated these drones, and not the US or Russia

Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?

abdendriel

10 months ago

Who knows if the war is really between Ukraine and Russia?

0

Fred19999

10 months ago

Ukraine has not claimed responsibility for this attack. It could have come from anyone.

Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?

abdendriel

10 months ago

They’re not quoting Moscow in fact. They’re just stating it in the headline of the article.

0

Fred19999

10 months ago

Show me a shred of evidence day Ukraine operated these drones, and not the US or Russia

Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?

abdendriel

10 months ago

Not needed to resolve this. Credible sources are reporting it as a Ukrainian drone attack. Source is from credible sources, not one of us

0

Fred19999

10 months ago

Show me a shred of evidence day Ukraine operated these drones, and not the US or Russia

Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?

abdendriel

10 months ago

There’s the video mentioned by BBC Verify. WSJ reported it as detonating. No credible source is going to name that video “falling debris, drone intercepted”

0

abdendriel

10 months ago

https://youtube.com/shorts/yTlokZRvwjw?si=yum-QHzkTFm1sk3N

Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?

abdendriel

10 months ago

https://youtube.com/shorts/yTlokZRvwjw?si=yum-QHzkTFm1sk3N

0

Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?

abdendriel

10 months ago

Yea or trying to make Yes cheaper so they can get a bigger bet on something that already happened

0

Tories4Harris

10 months ago

What is known: Ukraine launched an attack on Moscow and hit their targets before this market closed. A Moscow oil refinery was struck. Videos show a drone hitting this target. BBC News verified these videos as legitimate. Anyone telling you to buy No is trying to scam you into buying a decided market where they can sell their no shares for a quick profit.

Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?

abdendriel

10 months ago

@wat Video posted by Russians already disputed it

0

abdendriel

10 months ago

To say that the drone was intercepted would be like saying that Trump was assassinated. WSJ reports it as detonating over the plant, which is how drones work when they’re working.

Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?

abdendriel

10 months ago

Harder to enlist soldiers if you admit you can’t defend your capitol

0

Fred19999

10 months ago

Russian MoD confirmed it was debris

Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?

abdendriel

10 months ago

Damage was reported by WSJ to be caused by detonation, not falling debris. If a drone can receive a signal to detonate at the right time, it wasn’t intercepted.

0

abdendriel

10 months ago

To say that the drone was intercepted would be like saying that Trump was assassinated. WSJ reports it as detonating over the plant, which is how drones work when they’re working.

Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?

abdendriel

10 months ago

To say that the drone was intercepted would be like saying that Trump was assassinated. WSJ reports it as detonating over the plant, which is how drones work when they’re working.

4

Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?

abdendriel

10 months ago

Key words is in the WSJ report are “at least one” and “detonated”. Falling debris is different from a bomb detonating

0

abdendriel

10 months ago

“ Ukraine struck a major oil refinery in Moscow and other targets across Russia in one of its largest aerial barrages since the start of Russia’s invasion, expanding a campaign of drone attacks on energy facilities and further highlighting the vulnerability of strategic infrastructure deep inside Russia. Russia’s defense ministry said on Sunday that its air defenses had intercepted or shot down more than 150 drones in 15 regions. At least one of them detonated over a major refinery in Moscow” -WSJ

Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?

abdendriel

10 months ago

“ Ukraine struck a major oil refinery in Moscow and other targets across Russia in one of its largest aerial barrages since the start of Russia’s invasion, expanding a campaign of drone attacks on energy facilities and further highlighting the vulnerability of strategic infrastructure deep inside Russia. Russia’s defense ministry said on Sunday that its air defenses had intercepted or shot down more than 150 drones in 15 regions. At least one of them detonated over a major refinery in Moscow” -WSJ

0

Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?

abdendriel

10 months ago

You can see from the video that the pilot is still guiding it

1

LCWallaby

10 months ago

Lets clear this up: ""Yes" if a missile or drone launched by the Ukrainian armed forces strikes Moscow or any target within the municipality" It struck its target. End of story

Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?

abdendriel

10 months ago

A really slow and controlled one where it exploded only on contact with the plant

1

LCWallaby

10 months ago

Lets clear this up: ""Yes" if a missile or drone launched by the Ukrainian armed forces strikes Moscow or any target within the municipality" It struck its target. End of story

Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?

abdendriel

10 months ago

There’s a difference between credible reporting and credible reporting of Russia’s claims. Especially when Russia first claimed no damage..until the video came out and then claimed the missile defence system was working as expected on 100% of the drones. But there’s already a video out on drines slowly descending on the plant and exploding

0

Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?

abdendriel

10 months ago

Yes, videos of the drone slowly descending onto the plant and exploding, the way drones are meant to work. If it was shot down it would’ve exploded in mid air with debris landing on the plant, scratching the paint

2

Fav1

10 months ago

There are several videos from different angles with direct hit. Reality is disappointing, isn't it?

Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?

abdendriel

10 months ago

Credible sources report that Russia claims they stopped the Moscow attack with no damage. It doesn’t verify the claim, it only reports that that’s what Russia claims. Clearly videos already show damage so their credibility in claims about their own competence has been called into question

0

dreamer

10 months ago

https://www.npr.org/2024/09/01/g-s1-20509/russia-downed-drones-in-ukrainian-attack#:~:text=Moscow%20Mayor%20Sergei%20Sobyanin%20said,into%20the%20heart%20of%20Russia. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-01/fire-at-moscow-oil-refinery-as-russia-downs-158-ukrainian-drones https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-01/fire-at-moscow-oil-refinery-as-russia-downs-158-ukrainian-drones All the sources here corroborate that the drone was shot down and the fire was caused by the debris.

Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?

abdendriel

10 months ago

“ BBC Verify has examined and verified videos posted on social media which show explosions at all three locations. In the footage, fires appear to have subsequently broken out at Konakovo Power Station and the Moscow refinery.” -BBC

2

Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?

abdendriel

10 months ago

If Anderson Cooper needs to fly to Moscow to see the damage himself for this to resolve Yes, how did all the other war markets resolve? There’s footage and news outlets will report it.

1

Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?

abdendriel

10 months ago

What we’re observing are conversations between all Yes-believers trying to do last minute swing trading in both directions on an event that already happened

3

Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?

abdendriel

10 months ago

No holders are saying it’s from the Iraq war in an attempt to liquidate

0

Kirrilos

10 months ago

https://x.com/VyshnyaOstap/status/1830092157404807299/video/2 It’s video from 2023

Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?

abdendriel

10 months ago

There are 2 refineries

1

diddy

10 months ago

They got the wrong city omg

Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?

abdendriel

10 months ago

If bearish, why not buy No? But be careful because those No’s might not be liquid later. Better just wait for cheaper Yes’s. But don’t buy Yes now, not enough liquidity - if you only get a small position, nearish comments won’t be credible. Gotta wait for a cheaper and Yes position with more liquidity

0

Donkov

10 months ago

Be mindful of the dispute.

Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?

abdendriel

10 months ago

I’m tempted, I have a chance to buy more Yes’s at an even better price given the dispute

0

Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?

abdendriel

10 months ago

Not everyday ppl get a chance to bet on sure things. That’s why the last chance if volatility here is being milked

0

abdendriel

10 months ago

Yes bulls waiting for the dispute to get another cheaper entry point before doubling down.

Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?

abdendriel

10 months ago

Yes bulls waiting for the dispute to get another cheaper entry point before doubling down.

1

Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?

abdendriel

10 months ago

Don’t worry, you’ll get another Yes entry point

1

Donkov

10 months ago

Sell while you can. This will be disputed

Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?

abdendriel

10 months ago

Or the other way around

0

MarinaAF

10 months ago

Someone once said UMA scams are a forced transfer of wealth from emotional YES punters to wealthy NO buyers.

Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?

abdendriel

10 months ago

What does that do tho?

0

MarinaAF

10 months ago

If you're fully invested, just survive, hold your NO positions and do not capitulate.

Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?

abdendriel

10 months ago

No holders dumping. Question now is whether there’s enough liquidity between 90+ and 100 to make a meaningful profit. Already see doubtful comments from earlier without their No’s

0

X banned in Brazil by Friday?

abdendriel

10 months ago

How does this resolve if Starlink stays online in Brazil?

0

Pavel Durov released in August?

abdendriel

10 months ago

He’s riding the waves

0

gun

10 months ago

bro car, why are you commenting all day? there is more fulfilling this to do in life

Pavel Durov released in August?

abdendriel

10 months ago

Why? Is a high profile billionaire surrounded by press going to run?

0

Bwrbouere

10 months ago

Pavel will end up in a "mise en examen" it's to risky for the french gov to release him. If you can't understand that basic fact you are a sucker and deserve to lose you YES money.

Pavel Durov released in August?

abdendriel

10 months ago

The other option to pretrial detention is judicial supervision

0

Car

10 months ago

Starting to think its too much charges for 1 day, so the court decides to lock him up for longer, so they have more time. Its so late in Paris already

Pavel Durov released in August?

abdendriel

10 months ago

Between his release from custody and the judge’s decision on pre trial detention, he’s now what?

0

Pavel Durov released in August?

abdendriel

10 months ago

Or was he in judicial supervision, which is not custody?

1

Jul3s

10 months ago

He is not free, he just left custody because it's been 96H. Now he is in front of a judge who is going to decide if he keeps him as pre-trial custody or not.

Pavel Durov released in August?

abdendriel

10 months ago

Was he in pre-trial custody before the court session?

0

Jul3s

10 months ago

He is not free, he just left custody because it's been 96H. Now he is in front of a judge who is going to decide if he keeps him as pre-trial custody or not.

Pavel Durov released in August?

abdendriel

10 months ago

Is it custody under French law? If it were, human rights lawyers could sue the police

0

Laresgoiti

10 months ago

He was transported but not under custody. They could have transferred him while keeping him under custody but that is not the case

Pavel Durov released in August?

abdendriel

10 months ago

There is a strict legal definition for police custody, including rights and conditions. Whose custody is he in now? Show me the legal framework for it.

2

BlackSky123

10 months ago

My interpretation is that he was released from POLICE custody and transferred to court custody or something, the videos of him being taken to court he certainly doesn't seem free, doesn't seem like a true release from custody but simply a transfer, we will see if I get rule cucked and this ages poorly though.

Pavel Durov released in August?

abdendriel

10 months ago

Law only allows 96h detention. There are legal definitions of custody and release.

0

Eyebrows

10 months ago

To resolve this yes simply because he's at court now would be a terrible rules cuck, seriously.

Pavel Durov released in August?

abdendriel

10 months ago

The market is about the person releasing him, not what he does after that.

0

BUBASIIK

10 months ago

If he was released, why didnt hi fly away?

Pavel Durov released in August?

abdendriel

10 months ago

Who said anything about being free? Question is, is he in custody right now?

0

Gena🐊

10 months ago

Those who think is free propose a resolution, those who not like my coment!

Pavel Durov released in August?

abdendriel

10 months ago

Rules don’t mention anything about freedom. Custody ended with his release, otherwise police are in violation of law. If it ended in “transportation to another location of custody” they break the law by holding hun for too long.

0

Gena🐊

10 months ago

So he can walk free through the streets of Paris?

Pavel Durov released in August?

abdendriel

10 months ago

If you can prove the police did a custody transfer, you’ve proven they broke the law.

0

BUBASIIK

10 months ago

Transporting Durov to another location of custody will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". His release is a procedural standart.

Pavel Durov released in August?

abdendriel

10 months ago

Is he in court custody now or is he simply in court? French law allows 96 hrs detainment without a verdict.

0

Pavel Durov released in August?

abdendriel

10 months ago

Can someone explain why this hasn’t resolved to Yes? Future events can’t erase a past event. The “release from custody” event has happened already. Future indictments or arrests can’t change the past.

0

Will Trump and Harris debate before election?

abdendriel

10 months ago

After Harris put out the chicken sound video, neithe rod them can afford to be chicken now

0

Will Trump and Harris debate before election?

abdendriel

10 months ago

https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/philadelphia/news/kamala-harris-donald-trump-debate-philadelphia/

0

Will Trump and Harris debate before election?

abdendriel

11 months ago

Both parties agreed. Backing out would look worse than poor performance. Question now is how many debates

2

Will Kamala announce VP pick by Aug 7?

abdendriel

11 months ago

WaPo: The pick is due by Aug. 7, when the Democratic Party aims to formally nominate its ticket, solidifying Harris’s elevation to the top slot after President Biden’s exit from the contest. But we just got word that Harris is planning to tour the battlegrounds with the pick next week, which suggests it could come before the deadline.

0

HaterAde

11 months ago

No one cares about arbitrary deadlines. Tick tock.

Will Kamala announce VP pick by Aug 7?

abdendriel

11 months ago

Harris must pick a running mate by Aug. 7 to comply with Ohio's current ballot deadline, which remains in effect. Harris' team is planning to finish the vetting of the VP field and expects her to pick her running mate by that date, according to a source familiar with the plans.

0

Will Kamala announce VP pick by Aug 7?

abdendriel

11 months ago

Rules of the democrats roll call require a VP to be picked by Aug 7. She’s got plenty of time and options to get everything in order to qualify.

1

Who will endorse Kamala?

abdendriel

11 months ago

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/26/politics/barack-michelle-obama-kamala-harris-endorsement/index.html

0

Who will call for Biden to drop out?

abdendriel

11 months ago

What if Biden drops voluntarily and these people propose another candidate before the DNC? According to the rules wouldn’t that resolve to Yes even though the person didn’t technically ask Biden to drop?

0