Nobel Prize in Literature

abdendriel

10 hours ago

Guardian article citing Can Xue as favourite…for 2023 prize and she didn’t win. https://amp.theguardian.com/books/2023/oct/04/chinese-author-can-xue-favourite-win-2023-nobel-prize-for-literature

0

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

1 day ago

Adam Back now looking over his shoulder every now and then for everyone who lost money on him

1

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

1 day ago

Peter Todd admitted it himself by saying Hoback was “grasping at straws”. Denies being Satoshi but admits Hoback’s conclusion.

0

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

1 day ago

If Musk was in the doc, HBO would be selling it on those preview clips like crazy

1

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

1 day ago

Why ppl buy No Back. Last part of the interview https://www.fastcompany.com/91201894/satoshi-nakamoto-hbo-bitcoin-documnetary-money-electric-trailer

0

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

1 day ago

I don’t think Forbes would gamble its reputation on being verifiably wrong. Only we PM freaks do that

0

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

1 day ago

Source?

0

yuyang

1 day ago

This morning, HBO leaked a video, and at the end of the movie, it reads: Memory of 'Dave Kleiman' - Forever Satoshi Nakamoto. Dave Kleiman is the final Satoshi Nakamoto.

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

1 day ago

After Adam helped Cullen so much with the doc, imagine Cullen concludes it by accusing Adam of falsifying documents submitted to a court, accusing him of perjury. I don’t think that’s how this goes down.

0

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

1 day ago

Oh shit check out the cast on IMDB. Only a few ppl… and Peter Todd at the end. https://m.imdb.com/title/tt33600145/fullcredits/cast?ref_=m_ttfc_2

0

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

2 days ago

Director said the confronted him. So he’s not dead

0

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

3 days ago

“ idk wtf im doing i put all my life savings in yolo hopefully my parents dont kick me out” -2nd largest Adam Back holder. Check out Activity, almost exclusively Adam Back. Scroll down to see the comment

0

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

3 days ago

And also there are large buy spikes in Yes Adam Back, as if certain buyers were new to this but came here to throw money at it

0

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

3 days ago

Tried looking into Adam Back volatility. Look at the second largest holder for Yes. Account created recently almost just to buy Yes Adam Back consistently. Also their comments are like “yolo haha”. https://polymarket.com/profile/0x076425d6110b25e6d1c17b14cfefa84b29918c45

2

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

3 days ago

Check out Adam Back’s twitter @adam3us. Total fanboy

1

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

3 days ago

Yea I feel like Adam Back is using the show to get publicity for his company

1

makszed

3 days ago

People are funny. They assume if someone appears in a trailer, they're the creators, but that's not how trailers work. You don't know the real truth—Len is definitely winning.

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

3 days ago

And Adam back was super cooperative with them

0

n/a

3 days ago

In the interview they say they confront the prime suspect. Cant confront dead men - Sassman and Finney https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/07/business/video/bitcoin-creator-identity-satoshi-nakamoto-hbo-documentary-digvid

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

3 days ago

Why the big Elon bet, Car?

0

Car

3 days ago

Wait, in the trailer they are talking about the government alot, so maybe they are going to conclude that Satoshi = the US government. That would also make sense because they said it would shock the US elections

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

3 days ago

Cullen said he’s the first person they talked to to try to lead them to Satoshi. Then the result is unexpected

0

Fatboyslim

3 days ago

Breaking: it's been revealed that Adam Back is in the documentary

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

3 days ago

Cullen says they talked to the usual suspects and Adam Back was a starting point that led them to a deeper mystery. The result is controversial and May shock the election. https://www.fastcompany.com/91201894/satoshi-nakamoto-hbo-bitcoin-documnetary-money-electric-trailer

1

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

3 days ago

This is totally how Satoshi writes: https://x.com/adam3us/status/1798054843623628963?s=46

1

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

4 days ago

Photoshoots with a wizard’s robe and repping some other crypto companies by wearing their hoodie on the HBO doc.

0

abdendriel

4 days ago

Satoshi’s twitter handle revealed: @adam3us. Mysteriously stepped away with 1m BTC but he’s now pumping “uptober”, pissed it’s not $100k

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

4 days ago

Satoshi’s twitter handle revealed: @adam3us. Mysteriously stepped away with 1m BTC but he’s now pumping “uptober”, pissed it’s not $100k

1

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

4 days ago

From the author of the bitcoin white paper who implemented his vision and moved on to other things, Adam Back: https://x.com/adam3us/status/1842474436970020870?s=46

0

ensemble0112358

4 days ago

You are a moron and don't know what you just copy-pasted.

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

4 days ago

Satoshi handed everything over to move on and remain anonymous (or die). Adam back is going around acting like a total BTC fanboy. Check out his twitter

0

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

4 days ago

Seems like Adam is the focal point of the documentary, I think he repeatedly denies being Satoshi as a humility thing, but it looks like HBO is going to strongly insinuate he grandfathered the concept.

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

4 days ago

Backstreets Back, but Satoshi isn’t Back. Adam Back’s tweet: “ in a market sense which is what matters, it's just not here. no one wants to be short, and you can see that from short duration option chains, high long funding rates, and domination of basis traders vs real shorts.” Check out Adam’s twitter, it’s not him

0

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

4 days ago

Interview with Cullen Hoback https://www.fastcompany.com/91201894/satoshi-nakamoto-hbo-bitcoin-documnetary-money-electric-trailer

1

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

4 days ago

Adam Back denied being Satoshi. Cullen said in an interview that they started with Back and this lead to a much grander mystery. The name is someone controversial that is unexpected

1

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

4 days ago

Director said Adam led them to further evidence and a controversial name

0

GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix

4 days ago

Seems like Adam is the focal point of the documentary, I think he repeatedly denies being Satoshi as a humility thing, but it looks like HBO is going to strongly insinuate he grandfathered the concept.

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

4 days ago

Agreed. Satoshi wouldn’t be the CEO of some blockchain company

0

Bepper

4 days ago

If Adam was Satoshi he would have just claimed bitcoin. He already made Hashcash. Bitcoin would have just been a new version. Satoshi communicated with via email with Wei Dai first. It's pretty obvious SN (NS) was looking for code examples which lead him to Hashcash. If you're a programmer you understand this process. In the bitcoin talks forums in 2013 Adam made suggestions about how he would have done things differently. Adam bragged heavily in the forums that bitcoin got the hash idea from him. This is not someone who was trying to hide the connection. Adam is not Satoshi. Had he been Satoshi he would have never hid his identity. There is only one person who qualifies and has the type of personality who would hide his identity, someone who loves pseudonyms.

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

4 days ago

“Funding secured” was not a joke

1

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

4 days ago

Satoshi slip-ups reveal clues. Van Nuys IP address (near SpaceX) exposed. Funding secured tweet

0

addicts

4 days ago

Honestly, it could be anyone else BESIDES Hal

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

4 days ago

Cullen Hoback said Adam was his first point of contact. The conversation led him deeper into a mystery that resulted in an unexpected and controversial name.

0

abdendriel

4 days ago

Some emails between Adam and Satoshi: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/technical/bitcoin-adam-backs-complete-emails-satoshi-nakamoto

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

4 days ago

Deep respect to Satoshi for making sure Adam’s hashcash papers had proper citations so he got credit

0

abdendriel

4 days ago

Some emails between Adam and Satoshi: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/technical/bitcoin-adam-backs-complete-emails-satoshi-nakamoto

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

4 days ago

Some emails between Adam and Satoshi: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/technical/bitcoin-adam-backs-complete-emails-satoshi-nakamoto

0

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

4 days ago

Adam back as an entry point into a bigger mystery that the director says the result is unexpected, controversial and will get debated.

1

abdendriel

4 days ago

“ I put that on a shelf for a while and said, all right, if I can get prolonged access to one of them as an entry point, that might unlock the larger story. That entry point was Adam Back[…]so it became a key entry point to unlocking the bigger mystery.” -director. See interview: https://www.fastcompany.com/91201894/satoshi-nakamoto-hbo-bitcoin-documnetary-money-electric-trailer

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

4 days ago

“ I put that on a shelf for a while and said, all right, if I can get prolonged access to one of them as an entry point, that might unlock the larger story. That entry point was Adam Back[…]so it became a key entry point to unlocking the bigger mystery.” -director. See interview: https://www.fastcompany.com/91201894/satoshi-nakamoto-hbo-bitcoin-documnetary-money-electric-trailer

1

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

4 days ago

Helped the director so much to unravel the mystery

0

abdendriel

4 days ago

Adam back was the only one who could’ve

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

4 days ago

Adam back was the only one who could’ve

0

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

4 days ago

Hal categorically denied it and his son showed conversations between Hal and Satoshi

0

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

4 days ago

Watch till the end. He’s Back

0

Tentaclecracy

4 days ago

This link points me to a Terminator II video

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

4 days ago

They got footage of Satoshi admitting he’s Adam Back https://youtu.be/44gD94kl5CU?si=inXq0ZLmJGWthWSr

1

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

4 days ago

Why do you think it’s Adam Back?

0

goingsocial

5 days ago

Idk who came in and decided this should be a prediction market. Please go back to being an opinion poll

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

4 days ago

Can someone explain why it’s Adam Back?

1

Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?

abdendriel

5 days ago

Imagine if the documentary isn’t finished and they used the polymarket odds to identify the name

5

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

5 days ago

All u need for a military offensive are here: very broad definition which includes artillery fire. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Offensive_(military)#:~:text=An%20offensive%20is%20a%20military,%2C%20operational%2C%20or%20tactical%20goal.

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

5 days ago

“Military offensive” are the rules, not in invasion. IDF announced Northern Arrows operation started on 30 Sep

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

5 days ago

Polymarket deleted the tweet about him buying this https://x.com/polymarket/status/1838614497080062230?s=46

0

Gauth

5 days ago

But JustKen just bought 37k No

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

5 days ago

What we’re observing is drip buying Y / selling N. Both Y buyers and N sellers are trying to execute optimally with minimum price slippage.

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

5 days ago

“The Ayr’s have it” -50 Pence

1

HsB34sgg

5 days ago

Results speak for themselves. https://www.firstpost.com/explainers/israel-ground-invasion-might-cause-lebanon-to-completely-collapse-13822174.html

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

5 days ago

And the comment for pence

1

Car

5 days ago

Chad is the only person responsible for this Y price lol

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

5 days ago

Unless Car changes his opinion, which he has done in the past to his credit.

0

aldynspeedruns

5 days ago

this is a win-win scenario. Either I win, or car loses. No matter what I win.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

5 days ago

40% votes revealed. Yes increased by a few percent. No percentage halved

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

5 days ago

Yes votes increased after more votes revealed

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

5 days ago

Good luck!

2

Dr.ChristmasJones

5 days ago

Just leaving this comment in a sea of YES holders

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

5 days ago

It’s an offensive if it achieves “some larger strategic or tactical goal”. Arguably what the larger strategy was in killing OBL. But in this case, the artillery shelling (done by ground troops) are all part of Northern Arrows

0

n/a

5 days ago

Isolated raids are not intended to establish control over part of lebanon. The IDF already announced these raids have been going on for months. Was killing Osama a USA invasion of Pakistan?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

5 days ago

You can’t disconnect all the activities in the Northern Arrows offensive when the IDF state they’re all part of the Northern Areows offensive

1

n/a

5 days ago

@isabellebeaumont you are betting wayyyyy too much if you think Special Ops IDF use m16s lulz

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

5 days ago

They attacked, bro.

0

n/a

5 days ago

@isabellebeaumont you are betting wayyyyy too much if you think Special Ops IDF use m16s lulz

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

5 days ago

“ An offensive is a military operation that seeks through an aggressive projection of armed forces to occupy or recapture territory, gain an objective or achieve some larger strategic, operational, or tactical goal. Another term for an offensive often used by the media is "invasion", or the more general "attack"”.

0

n/a

5 days ago

@isabellebeaumont you are betting wayyyyy too much if you think Special Ops IDF use m16s lulz

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

5 days ago

I’m sorry bro. From 1 yes buyer to another previous yes buyer

0

n/a

5 days ago

bro pulled up info from 4 days ago and thought he had something 💀

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

5 days ago

“Invasion” is not in the rules. So many people got screwed before by reading the title and not the rules.

1

n/a

5 days ago

limited localized= not an invasion yet

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

5 days ago

IDF saved us by announcing the commencement of their offensive on twitter with a timestamp https://x.com/idf/status/1840890054819864776?s=46

3

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

5 days ago

Be careful not to be fooled by the title. The rules say “military offensive”.

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

5 days ago

The rules say “military offensive”. IDF announced they already began

0

RBvKrsr7ZfRK

5 days ago

Israel did want to control some land of Lebanon on Sep 30th. But Israel failed because Lebanon fought back.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

5 days ago

November market unanimously voted it was an invasion already

0

n/a

5 days ago

I'd be curious to hear the No case here. The yes case writes itself. I guess the No case wants to isolate the raids from the invasion? Seems like a heavy lift.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

5 days ago

Unanimous Y or the November market. Y price still cheaper than the US election (which is an actual coin flip). Rare opportunity

3

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

5 days ago

For those entering Y and exiting N I mean

0

abdendriel

5 days ago

Now it’s all about best execution

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

5 days ago

Now it’s all about best execution

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

5 days ago

Don’t forget the resolution source: A or B or Israel or C. IDF announced it started “a few hours ago” on 30 Sep https://x.com/idf/status/1840890054819864776?s=46

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

5 days ago

Dark poetry: this market resolves almost right on Oct 7

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

5 days ago

They’re reasonable people. The acted on the info available earlier. They’ll make a new reasonable decision with new info now

0

Darkpsico

5 days ago

Capitulation yet ?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

5 days ago

No holders still have a chance to sell and double money on the yes

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

5 days ago

He’ll probably keep it in polymarket

0

n/a

5 days ago

Chads gonna have multiple houses after this

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

5 days ago

Happy Rosh Hashanah

2

abdendriel

5 days ago

We all knew this moment would happen.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

5 days ago

We all knew this moment would happen.

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

5 days ago

What’s the remaining point of uncertainty?

0

HaterzLoserz

5 days ago

Reason is telling me to stay out, emotions are telling me to buy yes for the lulz, better judgement has prevailed for now, but this may change at any moment. Dont get too excited though, and dont risk what you cant afford to lose (chad)

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

5 days ago

Actually half hoping some Yes holders will take profit early so I can get in

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

5 days ago

Bought more Yes before other ppl notice

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

5 days ago

No doubt anymore tho, can only complain that UMA is controlled by whales

2

n/a

5 days ago

Will NO commence a copefenssive intended to establish control over this market?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

5 days ago

No more doubts about intention!!

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

5 days ago

IDF announced their offensive started “a few hours ago” in a tweet on 30 Sep https://x.com/idf/status/1840890054819864776?s=46

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

5 days ago

https://x.com/idf/status/1840890054819864776?s=46

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

5 days ago

IDF announced the offensive started a few hours ago on 30 Sep.

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

6 days ago

The operation will occupy their homes. They’re welcome to return once the operation is done

0

abdendriel

6 days ago

Netanyahu said it to the people of Lebanon: “ Please, get out of harm's way now. Once our operation is finished, you can come back safely to your homes.” https://x.com/israelipm/status/1838249143891861626?s=46

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

6 days ago

Netanyahu said it to the people of Lebanon: “ Please, get out of harm's way now. Once our operation is finished, you can come back safely to your homes.” https://x.com/israelipm/status/1838249143891861626?s=46

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

6 days ago

There’s new evidence. The establishment of control is happening over recent days.

1

hp-loveshack

6 days ago

this market's lost its damn marbles. in the past 48hr, uma told you there was insufficient evidence for 'yes', and even gave more time to accrue evidence. now, there's no new evidence that either discredits the case for 'no' or further advances the case for 'yes'. and yet the market's reverted to 50/50? wild stuff.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

6 days ago

IDF footage of the houses and tunnels they established control over https://x.com/idf/status/1841886439732134055?s=46

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

6 days ago

IDF established control of house. Hezbollah can’t enter this house anymore to grab their munitions back. https://x.com/idf/status/1842127761944809559?s=46

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

6 days ago

They’re in control of this home. https://x.com/idf/status/1842127761944809559?s=46

0

denizz

6 days ago

Israel still hasn’t controlled any territory, per institute for the study of war. No consensus that they are trying to do so, which would be contra their stated intentions.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

6 days ago

Yes there’s a reason they chose Too Early and then some of them switched to Yes. None switched to No

0

BibiNetanyahu

6 days ago

(Just FYI this is extremely, extremely likely to go Yes, barring explosive new information, and you should not trade based off people in the comments trying to pump their bags)

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

6 days ago

Moshe Zalman Feiglin (Hebrew: מֹשֶׁה זַלְמָן פֶייגְּלִין; born 31 July 1962) is a right libertarian-leaning[1][2][3] Israeli politician and activist, and the leader of libertarian Zionist party Zehut.

0

abdendriel

6 days ago

Moshe Feiglin on the governments plan https://x.com/moshefeiglin/status/1838830185023480060?s=46

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

6 days ago

Moshe Feiglin on the governments plan https://x.com/moshefeiglin/status/1838830185023480060?s=46

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

6 days ago

Yair Golan (Hebrew: יאיר גולן; born 14 May 1962) is an Israeli politician and leader of the Democrats party and a senior military officer.

0

abdendriel

6 days ago

Google translate: “ In any case, a ground move must be prepared for immediate action that will allow control of the Lebanese ridges that rule into our territory.”

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

6 days ago

Google translate: “ In any case, a ground move must be prepared for immediate action that will allow control of the Lebanese ridges that rule into our territory.”

0

abdendriel

6 days ago

Yair Golan: “ בכל מקרה יש להכין לפעולה מיידית מהלך קרקעי שיאפשר שליטה ברכסים הלבנונים השולטים לתוך שטחנו.” https://x.com/YairGolan1/status/1839256229157212285

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

6 days ago

Yair Golan: “ בכל מקרה יש להכין לפעולה מיידית מהלך קרקעי שיאפשר שליטה ברכסים הלבנונים השולטים לתוך שטחנו.” https://x.com/YairGolan1/status/1839256229157212285

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

6 days ago

Rosh Hashanah ends after Tishrei 2 (nightfall of Oct 4). IDF will be “let’s move out” and start establishing control over the bombsites A and B

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

6 days ago

This is the link https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Offensive_(military)

0

abdendriel

6 days ago

Military offensive can consist of only 10 ppl. But in this case there are 100 tanks and tens of IDF casualties. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Israeli_invasion_of_Lebanon

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

6 days ago

Military offensive can consist of only 10 ppl. But in this case there are 100 tanks and tens of IDF casualties. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Israeli_invasion_of_Lebanon

0

HsB34sgg

6 days ago

The "Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?" RESOLVED YES with near UNNANIMOUS votes. The proof is overwhelming!!! https://polymarket.com/event/israeli-forces-enters-lebanon-in-september

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

6 days ago

In the last vote, some of the Too Early voters voted for Yes. No was unchanged.

0

Scoobs

6 days ago

What's the argument for "Too early" anymore? " if Israel commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Lebanon" - there is plent of proof that forces moved in on September 30. And now there is plenty of proof that that action has escalated and Israel is moving deeper into Lebanon. Can someone enlighten me?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

6 days ago

It’s more like the intentions of the offensive are being revealed. When you travel somewhere, your intentions of going there are observed by the activities you do after arriving.

0

Mr. House

6 days ago

Sorry to all people but this market is looking rig to me, what a coincidence that in the middle of the night a butch of orders start to apper.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

6 days ago

It’s probably because of the proposals, disputes, votes that have been happening that causes volatility.

0

Mr. House

6 days ago

Sorry to all people but this market is looking rig to me, what a coincidence that in the middle of the night a butch of orders start to apper to hit the yes that is the true.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

6 days ago

Trying to get in cheaper?

0

Mr. House

6 days ago

Sorry to all people but this market is looking rig to me, what a coincidence that in the middle of the night a butch of orders start to apper.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

6 days ago

As information is available, it should be shared with the PM community for transparency. Otherwise a whale could buy up all the Yes liquidity with early information before everyone else got the chance

1

FamilyCapital

6 days ago

On 30th september they scammed you, now they repeat same thing, bought under 20c YES, spamming comment section with "proofs", I wrote in discord as well in here in comment section, they gonna succeed it again. Voala.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

6 days ago

Some Too Early voters voted Yes in the last vote. No was unchanged. As time passes, more info is revealed.

0

FamilyCapital

6 days ago

On 30th september they scammed you, now they repeat same thing, bought under 20c YES, spamming comment section with "proofs", I wrote in discord as well in here in comment section, they gonna succeed it again. Voala.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

6 days ago

IDF established control of these properties and tunnels beneath them. https://x.com/idfsoldiergirl/status/1841177612473025007?s=46

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

6 days ago

Operation Northern Arrows is the name of the offensive in Lebanon. Ground troops are just a part of the wider offensive. Check launch date https://x.com/amnestyireland/status/1841775865920676269?s=46

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

6 days ago

IDF self-reported that the offensive commenced a few hours ago on 30 Sep. Resolution source is A or B or Israel or C. The offensive commenced with artillery shelling in preparation for troop advance.

1

Car

6 days ago

nobody agreed it happened on september 30th. Otherwise the vote wouldnt have gone to P4

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

6 days ago

That’s a good attitude. It’s just one position in your diversified portfolio. But look, there’s no doubt what Bibi’s plan is with the “New Middle East” and complaints about 1701 buffer zone not enforced. It’s a matter of chance that the offensive started hours before this market closed.

0

🤺JustKen

6 days ago

Man you guys are absolutely nutso

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

6 days ago

Don’t you just love it when things commence with a clear and decisive announcement? https://x.com/idf/status/1840890054819864776

2

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

6 days ago

I love it when the military marked the commencement it’s operations with such a clear and decisive announcement!

0

RBvKrsr7ZfRK

6 days ago

our marriage

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

6 days ago

We were all there, waiting for the cabinet to approve it’s commencement on 30 Sep when finally the IDF tweet came out to announce it’s commencement.

1

HsB34sgg

6 days ago

Can anybody tell me what Operation “Northern Arrows” is??? WHAT IS IT???? https://x.com/idf/status/1840890054819864776

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

6 days ago

We saw some Too Early voters decide they were ready to conclude. yes increased, no unchanged.

1

RBvKrsr7ZfRK

6 days ago

People were aping into a NO bet based on P4... but didn’t understand the meaning. Time to get out before you sell junk bonds!

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

6 days ago

100 tanks crossing the border, deep evacuation calls, IDF soldiers dead. It’s a military offensive. Go tell the families of fallen soldiers and displaced Lebanese residents that it’s a minor raid.

1

HsB34sgg

6 days ago

Timely confirmation of the “COMMENCEMENT OF A MILITARY OFFENSIVE” as per the rules. https://x.com/AlMayadeenLive/status/1840780570378248414 More Confirmation of the “COMMENCEMENT OF A MILITARY OFFENSIVE” in the September market BEFORE THE DEADLINE. https://x.com/AlMayadeenLive/status/1840759133512888729 https://x.com/AlMayadeenLive/status/1840772769501331888 https://x.com/AlMayadeenLive/status/1840772824715173931 https://x.com/AlMayadeenLive/status/1840780061948944504 https://x.com/AlMayadeenLive/status/1840780093762699637 https://x.com/AlMayadeenLive/status/1840780198683242905 https://x.com/AlMayadeenLive/status/1840780570378248414 Google translates raids as raids, and airstrikes as airstrikes. https://x.com/AlMayadeenLive/status/1840719580060070032 Bombed https://x.com/AlMayadeenLive/status/1840758553016942887

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

6 days ago

The ones who did are the Yes holders now

4

n/a

6 days ago

Greedy NOses, why didnt you take profits at .95C?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

6 days ago

Rules: “commence military offensive”. IDF: “ In accordance with the decision of the political echelon, a few hours ago, the IDF began limited, localized, and targeted ground raids”. And thus the “Northern Arrows” offensive began as approved by upper echelons of government

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

6 days ago

The word “invasion” isn’t in the rules.

0

🤺JustKen

6 days ago

It's really embarrassing that someone would exclude the title, and exclude the key piece of information. As you can see, when ChatGPT is given the title and the key piece of information, it immediately switches to No: https://chatgpt.com/share/66ff7c2a-8450-8012-95d6-abd707566ead

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

6 days ago

How can IDF tell the 60,000 displaced northern Israelis that it’s safe to return to border towns? Only by promising that they’ve established control.

0

HsB34sgg

6 days ago

Market rules for both the September and November Invade markets have been completely satisfied by Israel’s invasion into Lebanon. It's called AREA ACCESS DENIAL, a fundamental military strategy to establish control over a strategically important zone. In this case, pushing Hezbollah back 5KM to reestablish the UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which obligated Hezbollah to remain north of the Litani River. (i.e., to establish control over a portion of Lebanon.) Hezbollah has been in contravention of the Resolution ever since it was passed. Israel is intent on rectifying that problem by force, and once and for all! They started with the ground invasion on September 30th. This operation will continue until the openly stated and widely publicized stated objectives are achieved.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

6 days ago

Resolution Sources: A or B or Israel or C. IDF announced the offensive began 30 Sep ET

1

BenCM

6 days ago

1 October Invasion was 30 September ET. That's the key fact.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

6 days ago

IDF established control over these properties and tunnels in Lebanon. https://x.com/idf/status/1841886439732134055?s=46

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

6 days ago

Evidence of intent can surface after the action. If you travel somewhere, your intent can be evidenced by what you do after you arrive.

1

Slytherin

6 days ago

What happened in October cannot serve as evidence for September.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

6 days ago

There have been so many buffer zone 1701 talks amongst Israeli leadership leading up to the offensive. Now the evacuation instructions roughly line up with the 1701 buffer zone

0

RBvKrsr7ZfRK

6 days ago

Israel's military has reportedly added ground units to its operation against the Iranian-backed militant group Hezbollah. The IDF's stated goal is to restore a demilitarized buffer zone in southern Lebanon to ensure the safe return of some 60,000 Israeli residents to homes in northern Israel.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

6 days ago

No such thing as a high yield bond without risk. Online gambling isn’t a high yield bond. Understand the upset when IDF announces it launched the offensive hours before the market deadline.

0

Justifax

6 days ago

I understand some folks are bitter about getting rugged on the last day like this, but it happens, more often than you probably realize. Dozens of reputable outlets on Sept30th stated that the invasion had begun. That is a commencement.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

6 days ago

With IDF casualties, IDF will need to update the nation on what the sacrifice was for. Achievements will be revealed soon

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

6 days ago

I don’t get it..

0

RememberAmalek

6 days ago

don't dispute yet we're fine

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

6 days ago

Some Too Early voters now have the info needed to vote yes. No is unchanged

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

Responding to supporting material with threats

1

Naak

1 week ago

You better start selling like the rest before you loose the rest.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

Landmark post from the IDF: https://x.com/idf/status/1840890054819864776?s=46

0

FamilyCapital

1 week ago

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8N_yehAI5IQ Proof of an Israel invasion into Lebanon? Oh wait, this is about Russia invading Ukraine. But Ukraine has a lower population density and about 50 times a larger border with Russia and Belarus combined than Israel has with Lebanon. So how is it possible that we have no proof of an actual invasion of Israel into Lebanon on September 30th?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

Resolution source: A or B or Israel or C

1

FamilyCapital

1 week ago

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8N_yehAI5IQ Proof of an Israel invasion into Lebanon? Oh wait, this is about Russia invading Ukraine. But Ukraine has a lower population density and about 50 times a larger border with Russia and Belarus combined than Israel has with Lebanon. So how is it possible that we have no proof of an actual invasion of Israel into Lebanon on September 30th?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

To evidence intention, context around the action is needed. As context is found and comes out, the intentions of the offensive will become evident

0

Naak

1 week ago

All these yes holder who cant even read simple rules sharing unrelated news posts while selling their shares is funny.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

Bibi at the UN: “ This is the map I presented here last year. It’s a map of a blessing. It shows Israel and its Arab partners forming a land bridge connecting Asia and Europe. Between the Indian Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea, across this bridge, we will lay rail lines..”

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

I wonder what IDF’s intentions are when asking for this evacuation

1

abdendriel

1 week ago

“ DF Arabic-language spokesman Avichay Adraee announced that more than 20 villages across southern Lebanon were being called on to evacuate as the military's ground operation against Hezbollah continued.” https://x.com/jerusalem_post/status/1841788164580552908?s=46

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

“ DF Arabic-language spokesman Avichay Adraee announced that more than 20 villages across southern Lebanon were being called on to evacuate as the military's ground operation against Hezbollah continued.” https://x.com/jerusalem_post/status/1841788164580552908?s=46

0

Kobafix

1 week ago

"Lebanese army says it fired on Israeli troops after second soldier killed in strike" https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-823089

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

Yes holders are presenting findings and arguments, soon to be made by a portion of the world who don’t even know what polymarket is. Question of whether Israel launched an offensive to control part of Lebanon will be discussed even after this market is resolved. We’re not threatening anyone or saying something bad will happen to your shares. On the other hand, more and more No holders (not all) are going to threats and talking about the price.

3

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

“Major” isn’t in the rules. Military offensive includes bombing the capitol of a country. Or even artillery shelling

5

🤺JustKen

1 week ago

This video shows a small raid. If you have video of a major offensive (or anything close to that) designed to control parts of Lebanon on September 30th, I think that would be very pertinent information to bring forward.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

Pearl Harbour: military offensive launched when planes departed from Japan. At the time of launch, the planes were not yet in US airspace and no Americans witnessed it until they arrived.

2

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

This is a pattern when Yes side are all facts and no side are all threats

5

n/a

1 week ago

anyone know what's up?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

Similarly, IDF (resolution source) announced the launch of their offensive on 30 Sep, saying it started hours ago. The offensive involved shelling and alleged use of white phosphorous, followed by troop advance.

2

abdendriel

1 week ago

Pearl Harbour was a military offensive. Before the planes entered US airspace, the offensive had been launched. Americans did not witness the launch from Japan.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

Pearl Harbour was a military offensive. Before the planes entered US airspace, the offensive had been launched. Americans did not witness the launch from Japan.

1

Justifax

1 week ago

The "Northern Arrows operation" commenced on Sept 30th, ET. This has been broadly reported by every single media outlet. Nobody disputes this - nobody. As to the specific tactics of the operation, sure, who knows exactly what precisely happened. But the rules don't ask for that. You can argue 'control' if you want, but it is very unserious to argue 'commence' when every headline agrees on exactly when this operation started.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

They’re one of the resolution sources. No need for hezbollah to see them if hezbollah are hiding somewhere

1

n/a

1 week ago

No need to guess, when the IDF says they are already going in, before the deadline https://x.com/IDF/status/1840890054819864776

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

That sounds like someone who wants to keep liquidity available

0

rozi

1 week ago

It no longer matters what should or shouldn't happen. We already know the 80% of the UMA votes. It's pretty much a done deal, independently of what actually happened on the ground.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

The offensive is called the Northern Arrows operation

1

Justifax

1 week ago

Why this market should go same as November: assume that the offensive didn't commence on Sept 30th despite every headline from every credible outlet saying it did. Ask yourself - at what point does the offensive commence?

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

Too early is about intention to control a portion. Voting and disputes had plenty of time after the deadline.

1

rozi

1 week ago

Voting No is logically wrong, because the resolution was proposed a few hours before the deadline, so in principle Israel could've invaded between the proposal before the deadline. The Too Early votes can essentially be seen as No votes for the next round.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

It was too early then, but now, the “control of a portion” of Lebanese space is evident on photo (self-reported by IDF) and video

3

n/a

1 week ago

90% voted p4 - too early, and 10% - Yes.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

The intent to control a portion is now playing out because there’s footage of them actually doing it.

0

n/a

1 week ago

If Yes would be a viable solution for too early wouldn't have dropped so much but rather like the Maduro market to 80 first and then slowly going down with more evidence. All the yes holders hope for is another pump and dump in the 30s

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

Btw is all this info in the discord right now? It seems like all boxes are tucked in the rules.

0

n/a

1 week ago

Yep, the "special military raids". They can call it whatever they want. Doesnt change the reality, that they right now occupy parts of Lebanon.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

1:46 they’re controlling that area between those buildings

0

n/a

1 week ago

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2sAiPglN-o8

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

Same boat but I don’t understand the controversy..

1

144

1 week ago

So I just now bought these 2.7k shares it’s clear to me it was an invasion per the rules. I understand the controversy but I’m going to assume that this is going to resolve correctly despite was so,e of the naysayers and other people are saying about the possibly biased voting mechanism (which I do not understand. I’m new to this site). Seems like the controversy was cleared up officially now. For me it is a good test to see if Polymarket rules resolutions can be trusted to stay true to English and logic

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

Yes and there doesn’t need to contact for an offensive to be launched. Napoleon launched a military offensive into Russia

0

n/a

1 week ago

We know for certainty, that the IDF took the Lebanese border crossings (part of Lebanon clay), as the Lebanese army retreated north.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

Northern Arrows was approved evening of 30 Sep and artillery shelling started. That’s a military offensive (so was pearl harbour). The intention has played out as IDF control portions of land with Hezb assets on them

1

abdendriel

1 week ago

When a rocket is launched from one country to another, the launch time refers to the rocket starting the journey, even if it’s still within the origin country’s airspace.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

When a rocket is launched from one country to another, the launch time refers to the rocket starting the journey, even if it’s still within the origin country’s airspace.

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

IDF are going to settle down somewhere in Lebanon and it will be clear it’s under their control.

0

n/a

1 week ago

Nothing is decided. Vote was too early. More evidence comes out by the day.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

Israel’s military offensive (Northern Arrows) included giving instructions to Lebanese citizens to leave. IDF are giving orders to residents and following up with military activity. This is an intention to control “ The Israeli military warned people in 50 Lebanese villages and towns to evacuate north of the Awali River, some 60 kilometers (37 miles) from the border and much farther than the northern edge of a U.N.-declared zone intended to serve as a buffer between Israel and Hezbollah after their 2006 war. Hundreds of thousands have already fled their homes.”

1

n/a

1 week ago

Israel presses forward on two fronts and reports https://apnews.com/article/israel-iran-lebanon-hezbollah-gaza-news-10-02-2024-7d93f71b7894177b4f9c303671ee55de

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

Anyone doubts that this portion is under IDF control? Can Hezbollah go there and use it now or is it in the hands of the IDF?

0

abdendriel

1 week ago

The tripod is sitting on a triangular portion of Lebanon that IDF control. Their intention was to control this rocket launcher so it stopped launching rockets.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

The tripod is sitting on a triangular portion of Lebanon that IDF control. Their intention was to control this rocket launcher so it stopped launching rockets.

0

abdendriel

1 week ago

“ Here is Hezbollah attack infrastructure, which included a rocket launcher, explosive stockpiles and additional military equipment that our forces located and destroyed:”. IDF posted a picture of a Hezbollah rocket launcher which they now control. https://x.com/idf/status/1841436605669835238?s=46

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

“ Here is Hezbollah attack infrastructure, which included a rocket launcher, explosive stockpiles and additional military equipment that our forces located and destroyed:”. IDF posted a picture of a Hezbollah rocket launcher which they now control. https://x.com/idf/status/1841436605669835238?s=46

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

“IDF soldiers will mark the holiday in the Gaza Strip, Lebanon, Judea and Samaria“ says IDF. They intend to celebrate Rosh Hashanah in a portion of Lebanon, all possible because of an offensive approved and launched on the night of 30 Sep. https://x.com/idf/status/1841506768364466419?s=46

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

Did the tanks park overnight?

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

Military offensive? yes. Intention to control a portion? We’ll see which portion the tanks are parked on. Unless they’re driving back and forth daily.

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

What’s the source of doubt right now? Intention to control a portion of Lebanon?

0

Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by Oct 31?

abdendriel

1 week ago

Hahahahhaha

0

AugustoPinochet73

1 month ago

People don't realize that among americans there is a sexual practice where, usually a man, kisses the anus of another man. Thinking that Americans are virginal saints and won't get the diseases is just nuts.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

How did the aircraft enter the Hezbollah tunnels then?

0

Besh24

1 week ago

Raids they mention are air raids to prepare for a ground operation. Ground raids are incoming. The yes market bullies unfortunately need some reality check

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

Israel is included in the resolution source as well as a consensus of credible reporting. We have both

0

notinventedhere

1 week ago

📝 🇱🇧 *Field Reports from Southern Lebanon* 📡 *Field correspondents* on the southern Lebanese borders are reporting that, as of now, there has been *no breakthrough* at the borders. However, rescue helicopters have been spotted evacuating *Israeli soldiers* on two separate occasions. 🚁 ⚠️ It is important to highlight that the ongoing *media blackout* from both sides is making it extremely difficult to obtain *precise and live* information. Much of the news currently being shared is through the observations of local people who remain in the area, close to *UNIFIL* and the *Lebanese Army* forces. 🪖👀 *📲 Stay tuned for more updates and insights with Wider Vision!*

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

I can’t believe there’s still a question about whether a military offensive occurred. IDF have even announced it.

0

HsB34sgg

1 week ago

More confirmations just keep piling in! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q9EK2bddG_Y, https://thenightly.com.au/world/lebanon-israel-commences-ground-invasion--c-16237510, https://www.arabnews.pk/node/2573438/middle-east, https://www.observerbd.com/news/492816, https://x.com/Frances_Coppola/status/1840966652092981709

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

Yes, Lebanon not enforcing 1701 so Israel saying they’ll do it for them

0

HsB34sgg

1 week ago

Your logic is faulty. Israel's intent has been made public for weeks!!!

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

There’s no evidence that the military operation was offensive, because IDF stands for Israel Defense Force, not Offence Force.

0

HsB34sgg

1 week ago

CNN now confirming!!! https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-lebanon-war-hezbollah-09-30-24-intl-hnk The Times of Israel now confirming, too!!!! https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-september-30-2024/ Now, the Independent confirming! https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/israel-lebanon-hezbollah-invasion-war-leaders-iran-live-updates-b2621409.html The Telegraph now confirming!!! https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/09/30/israel-lebanon-inavsion-latest-news/ Forbes has now CONFIRMED!!! https://www.forbes.com/sites/mollybohannon/2024/09/30/israel-begins-ground-raids-in-southern-lebanon/ NPR confirming!!! https://www.npr.org/2024/09/30/nx-s1-5133463/israel-lebanon-hezbollah-invasion Reuters now confirming!!!! We have a massive "consensus of credible reporting"!!! Resolution of this market? YES, YES, YES! https://www.reuters.com/world/lebanon-israel-live-updates-hezbollah-hamas-yemen-port-hit-by-airstrikes-2024-09-30/ Israeli military has now confirmed! https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/09/30/israel-lebanon-hezbollah-hamas-war-news-gaza/ The country of Israel has now CONFIRMED!!! It's Yes! https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/10/1/israel-says-has-started-targeted-ground-raids-in-lebanon The IDF has now CONFIRMED!!! https://www.smh.com.au/world/idf-confirms-ground-invasion-underway-in-lebanon-20241001-p5kesd.html

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

So the intention was a short-term occupation, not long term

1

HsB34sgg

1 week ago

CNN now confirming!!! https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-lebanon-war-hezbollah-09-30-24-intl-hnk The Times of Israel now confirming, too!!!! https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-september-30-2024/ Now, the Independent confirming! https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/israel-lebanon-hezbollah-invasion-war-leaders-iran-live-updates-b2621409.html The Telegraph now confirming!!! https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/09/30/israel-lebanon-inavsion-latest-news/ Forbes has now CONFIRMED!!! https://www.forbes.com/sites/mollybohannon/2024/09/30/israel-begins-ground-raids-in-southern-lebanon/ NPR confirming!!! https://www.npr.org/2024/09/30/nx-s1-5133463/israel-lebanon-hezbollah-invasion Reuters now confirming!!!! We have a massive "consensus of credible reporting"!!! Resolution of this market? YES, YES, YES! https://www.reuters.com/world/lebanon-israel-live-updates-hezbollah-hamas-yemen-port-hit-by-airstrikes-2024-09-30/ Israeli military has now confirmed! https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/09/30/israel-lebanon-hezbollah-hamas-war-news-gaza/ The country of Israel has now CONFIRMED!!! It's Yes! https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/10/1/israel-says-has-started-targeted-ground-raids-in-lebanon The IDF has now CONFIRMED!!! https://www.smh.com.au/world/idf-confirms-ground-invasion-underway-in-lebanon-20241001-p5kesd.html

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

There’s no evidence IDF are not permitting Hezbollah militants from walking through the tanks, enjoying the tunnels, and walking right up to the blue line as long alas they’re in Lebanese territory.

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

100 tanks sitting in Lebanon. But they’re not controlling the area where they’re parked. Villagers are for sure hanging their laundry on the turrets

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

The intention is in the rhetoric pre invasion

1

Cedarville

1 week ago

I don't believe there's consensus on the intent of the incursion, and there's not enough information about current troops' movement/activities.. Switched to "no"

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

There’s a military offensive and prior to that, plenty of reports of officials talking about the need for a buffer zone. Anyway, they are in control of the ola e where the tanks have parked

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

https://www.jns.org/renewed-buffer-zone-in-lebanon-a-must-chikli/

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

That’s exactly what you’re missing. Their intentions are reported before they start the operation

0

abdendriel

1 week ago

Sources of intention are in past news, not breaking news. That’s where you’re not looking: https://www.timesofisrael.com/top-general-said-pushing-for-ground-incursion-to-create-south-lebanon-buffer-zone/amp/

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

Sources of intention are in past news, not breaking news. That’s where you’re not looking: https://www.timesofisrael.com/top-general-said-pushing-for-ground-incursion-to-create-south-lebanon-buffer-zone/amp/

2

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

https://www.timesofisrael.com/top-general-said-pushing-for-ground-incursion-to-create-south-lebanon-buffer-zone/amp/

0

abdendriel

1 week ago

The only remaining question is intention.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

The only remaining question is intention.

0

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

IDF not only degraded Hezbollah’s assets, but also those of No holders with there transparent report on operation Northern Arrows

0

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

The IDF couldn’t have checked more boxes in the rules with this announcement: https://x.com/idf/status/1840890054819864776?s=46

0

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

Let me guess, AI

1

notinventedhere

1 week ago

As of September 30, 2024, intense conflict continues between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israeli airstrikes have resulted in significant casualties, including the death of Hezbollah's leader Hassan Nasrallah and several senior commanders. Despite these losses, Hezbollah has vowed to continue its resistance, and there are indications that Israel may be preparing for a ground invasion, with Defense Minister Yoav Gallant suggesting the use of all available resources. However, no ground operations involving Israeli troops on Lebanese soil have been reported as of the end of September.

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

I liquidated my earlier position because I realized No holders may have been right about whether troops have entered. But now that’s happened, question is the intention of Northern Arrows

0

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

Either way, wish you happy Rosh Hashanah

1

n/a

1 week ago

If the No wins I wish you guys a happy Rosh Hashanah!

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

Consensus of credible reporting already reported the raids in the recent days

1

n/a

1 week ago

Seeing as the results will be from Isreal ans Hezbollah everyone voting yes should visit thr verfied isreali news channels.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

Don’t confuse this market with the invasion market. It’s now clear that IDF jumped the gun and conducted raids before today

4

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

No all of them said they did raids already

1

Besh24

1 week ago

All news wires say they havent gone in yet

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

Yes they crossed before today in recent days during raids

0

RBvKrsr7ZfRK

1 week ago

They still DID NOT cross the border.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

At the strategic level, a phase continue for years. Not all phases of combat include fighting between armed forces. Phases can, and usually do overlap, and sometimes can be planned for parallel execution, often as part of deception planning. Phases typically found in offensive military operations are: Preparation Intelligence gathering phase[1] Operations planning phase Logistics management phase Deception and counterintelligence phase Assembly phase https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase_(combat)

0

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

Intelligence gathering is part of combat operations https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combat_operations_process

1

Will143

1 week ago

A raid is a surprise attack against a position or installation for a specific purpose other than seizing and holding the terrain. It is conducted to destroy a position or installation, destroy or capture enemy soldiers or equipment, or free prisoners. A raid patrol retains terrain just long enough to accomplish the intent of the raid. A raid always ends with a withdrawal off the objective and a return to the main body

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

I wonder if I need to keep repeating myself for 2 whole days about WSJ, CNN, and a host of credible reports of raids intensifying over recent days in preparation for the invasion. Don’t confuse this with the other invasion market

1

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

Facts are that a consensus of credible reporting came out over the past day around raids into lebanon

0

JoeBETS

1 week ago

Does polymarket always side with the 90%+ shareholders, I'm new but I feel like they're weak people who will always side with what everyone else is saying rather than basing off factual reports.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

WSJ, CNN, Telegraph, many others reported the raids. Don’t confuse with the wider invasion

1

zynyz

1 week ago

Only ways for this to resolve Yes "official confirmation by Hezbollah and Israel" This has not happened, " Consensus of credible reporting" Israel’s Channel 12: Contrary to reports, there is currently no Israeli ground entry into Lebanon There is no consensus.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

They’re not undercover. They just want to exclude mossad. In fact they’re recognising that intelligence is part of combat operations by adding that phrase to exclude mossad who are everywhere

1

n/a

1 week ago

Guys why do you think they added "Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count." in this new market they made. https://polymarket.com/event/will-israel-troops-enter-beirut-by-october-31 Because they want to make it clear that special ops gathering intelligence DOESN'T COUNT.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

It’s clear there’s a consensus of credible reporting that combat operations took place during raids into Lebanon in an intensifying manner in recent days. The raids were part of the preparation for the invasion

1

0x0067e40e99580bB4f48f377786e1f595557578D4-1722634879022

1 week ago

Think of it a system where we are all unsure about the outcome of this market, nobody really knows how it's going to end (either yes or no). Your best estimator is actually the number of people saying Yes or No not how much they put in value in the market which in this cases causes mispricing since the estimated probability is in favor of No with No/(Sum of Yes and No) is equal to 62.8% during the last 6 hours. Compare that to the market prices right now and you'll notice this is just how big your balls are

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

Reading the rules, it looks like they’ve already launched a military offensive

3

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

That’s because the facts were revealed that they were doing combat operations within Lebanon in the recent days

0

0x0067e40e99580bB4f48f377786e1f595557578D4-1722634879022

1 week ago

The real probability when taking out the effect of whales is 62.8% in favor of No. In the last 6 hours, the number of No buys stands at 691 while the Yes buys at 409.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

The intent of them being there during raids is reported as preparation for the invasion.

0

n/a

1 week ago

For it to be resolved as “Yes,” Israeli military personnel need to physically enter Lebanese territory specifically for combat operation. Now, “combat operations” means more than just being present—it involves being there with an intent for combat, like setting up a position, advancing into enemy areas, preparing for a potential fight etc. Direct engagement isn’t necessarily required, but the intent must be combat-oriented.On the other hand, intelligence-gathering missions are different. If Israeli troops enter Lebanon purely for reconnaissance or covert information gathering, and there’s no combat objective, that wouldn’t count under the definition of “combat operations” for this market.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

CNN, WSJ, all reported that they already conducted raids intensifying leading up to today

1

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

https://apnews.com/article/israel-lebanon-hezbollah-gaza-news-09-30-2024-83ea5f243688f309754ec74850de4238

0

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

They already have been doing raids

0

RBvKrsr7ZfRK

1 week ago

Lebanon incursion awaiting cabinet approval, IDF operates in West Bank

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/sep/30/israel-attacks-live-blog-lebanon-yemen-hamas-hezbollah-news-updates-middle-east-crisis

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

When you take a dump, you control the toilet stall you’re in

1

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

Oops I bought yes but forgot to consider the possibility that IDF might not stay

0

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

Wonder if the IDF intend to allow Hezbollah to enter their campsite on the Lebanon side once they’ve established it. Controlling who can enter and exit is considered controlling an area

1

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

This is the safest market you can get. Rare occasion when somethings already happened but there’s still yes liquidity. Also, an invasion will clear all disputes

0

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

They are doing artillery shelling and the tanks are right on the border.

0

n/a

1 week ago

did they invade?

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

WSJ, CNN, and now even more news outlets report that US officials confirm that Special Forces raids already happened and have been intensifying up to today.

0

iwantam4

1 week ago

Why some guys are saying that already resulted in "Yes"?

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

UN evacuating border

0

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

That’s the right move for them.

0

itsari👻

1 week ago

Lebanese army withdraws from positions on southern border with Israel, sources say

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

Or maybe I shouldn’t say anything, more expensive yes’s don’t help me

0

abdendriel

1 week ago

The artillery has started on the border. Artillery, not air strikes

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

Special forces raids aren’t undercover. Like how undercover cops aren’t in uniform.

0

n/a

1 week ago

Polymarket knows they made a mistake with this market. They made a new similar market here https://polymarket.com/event/will-israel-troops-enter-beirut-by-october-31/will-israel-troops-enter-beirut-by-october-31?tid=1727720169724 and make it clear in the rules this time that "Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count." This market WILL. resolve to "No".

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

The artillery has started on the border. Artillery, not air strikes

0

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

Consensus of credible reporting that the raids intensified over the past few days

0

Caligulas.dog

1 week ago

I have a feeling this will resolve to yes cause of market manipulations, but, still too good to not be part off

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

Read the news and the rules. It’s happened. The fun is in the invasion market now

2

n/a

1 week ago

Just because a bunch of whales buy "Yes" doesn’t mean it’s true. When has something that’s been proposed last been trading at 90c? Whenever something is certain to resolve a particular way, it’s trading at 99c for "Yes" or "No" almost immediately. The fact that this isn’t the case here should tell you everything—there’s clearly a lot of uncertainty because the evidence doesn’t definitively support a "Yes" outcome. The market itself is uncertain, and that’s because the evidence is shaky at best.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

He is right though, some people came into this market without reading the details, thinking it’s tick tock. But actually it’s about a reveal of the flop, turn and river, cards that are already on the table

0

RBvKrsr7ZfRK

1 week ago

Manipulation

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

You should read the news

0

n/a

1 week ago

Clear as day.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

And also because the conditions are met.

4

crow

1 week ago

For people wondering why the price of no is still low because there is a guy called 50-pence scammer who keeps buying yes shares thinking that it will resolve to yes if the price of yes is high

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

IDF sent out photos of their their operational plans approved

0

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

That’s why US were pissed that the raids already happened

1

OhNos

1 week ago

My Guess is Israel will wait for the newly deployed F-15E, F-16, A-10 and F-22 fighter planes to arrive in the Middle East to help protect US troops before invading, My reasoning for taking NO on this market probably the Only US request Israel will listen too lol , remember they need our weapons if they plan to go to war.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

They intensified leading up to the upcoming invasion

0

n/a

1 week ago

These special forces agents carried out "intelligence-gathering" raids as stated by the New York Post. This is the "combat operations" you guys are speaking of? Sounds a lot more like they were trying to AVOID combat. On top of nothing that proves it was done between September 18 and September 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET?

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

Enjoy!

0

n/a

1 week ago

i dont even know nuffin. shit we just hopin

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

If it wasn’t for him we all could’ve had better yes liquidity

0

Kavim

1 week ago

50-Pence should be banned

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

Combat operations include preparation for an invasion. This is widely reported and recapitulated many times. Scroll down

0

n/a

1 week ago

https://www.timesofisrael.com/troops-said-to-enter-hezbollah-tunnels-with-pre-invasion-forays-into-lebanon/ “The report, which cited unnamed sources familiar with the matter, said the raids have taken place over the past months, as well as more recently, with troops ‘probing’ and gathering intelligence, as activity ramps up ahead of a possible ground offensive.” There is no way you’re telling me we’re gonna be resolving to “Yes” based off this? This entire report is built on vague claims from unnamed sources, talking about “probing” and “gathering intelligence”—there’s nothing here that confirms combat intent.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

No it will be the truth

1

notinventedhere

1 week ago

if this resolve to yes this will be fraud

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/security-cabinet-convenes-as-signs-of-looming-ground-offensive-multiply/

0

abdendriel

1 week ago

Security Cabinet convening now

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

Security Cabinet convening now

0

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

Given most major news outlets have reported this with US officials as a source, how about the burden of proof is on the No-side?

0

NothingEverHappens

1 week ago

"The official said: “They are targeting key sites which have been built across the border zone." your guy doesn't even have a name, "credible concensus" can't apply for a rumor like a guy said this or that because we don't know if it's propaganda or else. If you don't have CQB footages or pictures to back that up it doesn't worth anything.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

Widely reported raids intensifying in recent days leading up to the invasion. The raids are combat operations (includes even things like desk work)

1

Porcoddio

1 week ago

This market will resolve to No because of three main reasons: 1) Raids were not combat operation, they were for gathering information and intelligence. You didn't see them bombing anything or killing anyone in these so called "raids". 2) Even if these raids would count (they shouldn't), not a single source knows when these so called "raids" happened. They mention that Israel did it a few months ago since October 7, but this market does not consider anything before September 18. 3) Troops are still not in Lebanon, which is the main reason for why we all placed bets in this market.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

Polymarket could hardly exist if that were the case.

1

NothingEverHappens

1 week ago

If Israel does spec ops they won't claim it "The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by Hezbollah and Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used." and what is credible reporting unless you are a shin bet operative with a go pro you can't prove anything.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1955251/israel-special-forces-lebanon

0

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

Just read the news. The raids have been intensifying in recent days leading up to the imminent invasion

1

n/a

1 week ago

There really is nothing more to add. This is absolutely a “No”.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

Consensus of credible reporting doesn’t require individual names

0

Porcoddio

1 week ago

"A military spokesperson said no ground operation had started and added that the Israel Defense Forces did not comment on special operations." So easy, like seriously.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

As they told the US that they would

0

RoseCharts

1 week ago

We all shitposting but there is still a chance Israel actually invades Lebanon in the next 11 hours lol

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

The raids are confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting

0

Porcoddio

1 week ago

"A military spokesperson said no ground operation had started and added that the Israel Defense Forces did not comment on special operations." So easy, like seriously.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

Not only IDF soldiers have insights now that the media’s all over the raids

1

NothingEverHappens

1 week ago

Either it's Whale style pump and dump or we got IDF soldiers with insights going all in. But the thing is that Israel won't invade without a massive carpet bombing or artilery preparation lasting at least for a month. It's very strange + the stuborn guys pushing for YES in the resolution section. I mean I don't know what to think about that.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

Anyways, every word of the rules has been backed up with sources now. It would be funny (but actually not funny for those displaced) if the invasion started. “ Israel has notified the US that it intends to launch a limited ground operation into Lebanon that could begin within hours, a US official confirmed to CBS on Monday. ”

1

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

Combat operations includes much less violent activities than these raids, which were reported to have damaged hezbollah outposts

1

Porcoddio

1 week ago

This market will resolve to No because of three main reasons: 1) Raids were not combat operation, they were for gathering information and intelligence. You didn't see them bombing anything or killing anyone in these so called "raids". 2) Even if these raids would count (they shouldn't), Not a single source knows when these so called "raids" happened. They mention that Israel did it a few months ago since October 7. 3) Troops are still not in Lebanon, which is the main reason why we all placed bets here.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

They said the imminent invasion won’t be major either. Small raids have happened, limited invasion imminent

2

SpaceHooves

1 week ago

"As of right now, I can say there are no major ground activities in Lebanon," Israel Defense Forces spokesman Major David Baruch told reporters in Israel Monday afternoon. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israel-lebanon-war-hezbollah-yemen-strikes-houthis-hamas-civilian-deaths/

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

US Marine Corps Combat Operations Centre (hint: they’re on laptops gathering and collating info) https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Sep4dLnm-fA

0

crow

1 week ago

I don't understand how people can't tell the difference between combat operations and military purposes

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

On the invasion market, yea that’s possible

0

Kavim

1 week ago

All YES gamblers go lose some money on this too: https://polymarket.com/event/will-israel-invade-lebanon-in-september?tid=1727699860870

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

Incursion is not in the rules. But newer updates not include the word

0

Sandor

1 week ago

Your own source disputes your claim: "US officials are currently not describing these Israeli raids as a ground incursion, even as they continue to carefully brace for the possibility of a limited ground operation that could come in the coming days."

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

They’re not only on Lebanon soil, they’re under it too

0

Tji22

1 week ago

It clearly says troops on Lebanon soil they still at the border my boy

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

Their intent is to invade. The operations are reported as part of a wider invasion to degrade Hezbollah

0

RBvKrsr7ZfRK

1 week ago

For the market to resolve to "Yes," there would need to be a clear indication of Israeli troops engaging in combat within Lebanese territory. Given the current reports, these operations appear to fall short of that threshold, suggesting that they may not meet the criteria for the market.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

Reconnaissance in preparation for an invasion is. Also destroying outposts

0

blameanarchism

1 week ago

For those saying there have been 'physical operations inside Lebanon', would you consider any spy operation in any foreign nation as an invasion?

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

Many authoritative sources of what’s included in Combat Operations below. USMC combat operations includes working with a laptop, let alone raids to destroy outposts

0

JoeBETS

1 week ago

It specifically says israel to enter for combat operations. gathering intel or preparing for a potential, does NOT apply..

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

Those are exactly the rules actually

0

RBvKrsr7ZfRK

1 week ago

Given that military officials have stated that no decision has been made about a major ground operation, it reinforces your earlier points about the current situation. Until there is a clear commitment from Israel to launch a significant ground offensive that involves crossing into Lebanon with the intent to engage in combat, the raids you've described would likely not fulfill the criteria for the market to resolve to "Yes."

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

Except from US officials

0

RoseCharts

1 week ago

There are no official confirmations

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

But they say they’ve done the comps at operations with the intention of preparing for the invasion

0

RBvKrsr7ZfRK

1 week ago

Given that military officials have stated that no decision has been made about a major ground operation, it reinforces your earlier points about the current situation. Until there is a clear commitment from Israel to launch a significant ground offensive that involves crossing into Lebanon with the intent to engage in combat, the raids you've described would likely not fulfill the criteria for the market to resolve to "Yes."

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

Intensifying in recent days

0

Tories4Harris

1 week ago

MONTHS: The incursions follow months of similar covert missions in which Israeli special forces briefly crossed the Lebanon border for reconnaissance, but have increased in intensity in recent days as commanders prepared for a wider maneuver, three of the officials said.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

Well imagine living in Lebanon.

1

Hamurabi

1 week ago

The Yes went from 13c to 95c in one hour and then straight for resolution and the Yes guys want to convince us that this is perfectly normal and and just happened because it's true 🤣🤣🤣

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

IDF did

2

Besh24

1 week ago

He has single handedly resolved this

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

“Combat Operations”: USMC, USAF, CAF all define it to include screen time work (let along RAIDS / destroying outposts). “Consensus of credible reporting”: first Telegraph reported it was in a briefing, then WSJ, then CNN from US officials. “Recent days” doesn’t mean 2 weeks ago.

1

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

“Incursion” isn’t in the rules. It’s Combat Operations

1

n/a

1 week ago

US officials are currently not describing these Israeli raids as a ground incursion !!!

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

Rules don’t say anything about “incursion”. Combat Operations

0

abdendriel

1 week ago

Rules do t say anything

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

Rules do t say anything

0

n/a

1 week ago

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-lebanon-war-hezbollah-09-30-24-intl-hnk#cm1p0tx1b00003b6mp84lj4hj

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

CNN now reports the source as “US officials” https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-lebanon-war-hezbollah-09-30-24-intl-hnk?Date=20240930&Profile=cnnbrk&utm_content=1727708106&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&t=1727708687285

1

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

A consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Read the rules

1

3,3

1 week ago

How amusing these attempts are to present articles from the NYTimes/WSJ/other American media as truth, instead of waiting for official statements from Israel/Lebanon.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

Plenty of authoritative sources provided below on what’s included in “combat operations”. Desk work included according to USMC

0

subtledrift

1 week ago

no news article says "combat" operation. most say "limited ground" operation

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

Point being, combat operations doesn’t equate to shootout. But it definitely includes special forces Raids

0

abdendriel

1 week ago

In case anyone’s interested in Combat Operations jobs with the Canadian Armed Forces (there are desk jobs available) https://forces.ca/en/careers/combat

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

Legally combat operations includes even includes cyber https://www.lawinsider.com/dictionary/combat-operations

0

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

In case anyone’s interested in Combat Operations jobs with the Canadian Armed Forces (there are desk jobs available) https://forces.ca/en/careers/combat

0

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

US Marine Corps Combat Operations Centre (hint: they’re on laptops gathering and collating info) https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Sep4dLnm-fA

0

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

https://irp.fas.org/doddir/army/fm34-1/ch4.htm

0

abdendriel

1 week ago

Federation of American Scientists on Combat Operations (includes a lot of non fighting activities, like rear operations)

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

Federation of American Scientists on Combat Operations (includes a lot of non fighting activities, like rear operations)

0

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

How USAF defines combat operations is relevant, as a branch of the worlds most significant military

0

abdendriel

1 week ago

“Division members execute the ATO through constant command and control of the battle space, subordinate Theater Air Control System elements and assigned assets. The COD adjusts the ATO in response to changing situations such as battlefield dynamics, maintenance problems or adverse weather, and publishes changes to the ATO and the Airspace Control Order at throughout each execution day. The COD assumes responsibility for the next day’s ATO as soon as it is released from the Combat Plans Division. Organization The COD is led operationally by the Chief of Combat Operations. Specific mission requirements dictate the elements that comprise the COD at any given time. The COD is composed of offensive, defensive, and intelligence duty officers as well as weather, airspace management, and joint personnel recovery representatives. Liaison teams representing sister services, Coalition countries, various weapons systems and other specialties also augment the COD. Depending on the nature of the operations, typical liaison teams include the Army Battlefield Detachment, Navy and Amphibious Liaison Element, Special Operations Liaison Element, Marine Liaison Officer, Coalition liaisons, and other platform-specific liaisons with detailed knowledge of their aircraft.”

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

“Division members execute the ATO through constant command and control of the battle space, subordinate Theater Air Control System elements and assigned assets. The COD adjusts the ATO in response to changing situations such as battlefield dynamics, maintenance problems or adverse weather, and publishes changes to the ATO and the Airspace Control Order at throughout each execution day. The COD assumes responsibility for the next day’s ATO as soon as it is released from the Combat Plans Division. Organization The COD is led operationally by the Chief of Combat Operations. Specific mission requirements dictate the elements that comprise the COD at any given time. The COD is composed of offensive, defensive, and intelligence duty officers as well as weather, airspace management, and joint personnel recovery representatives. Liaison teams representing sister services, Coalition countries, various weapons systems and other specialties also augment the COD. Depending on the nature of the operations, typical liaison teams include the Army Battlefield Detachment, Navy and Amphibious Liaison Element, Special Operations Liaison Element, Marine Liaison Officer, Coalition liaisons, and other platform-specific liaisons with detailed knowledge of their aircraft.”

0

abdendriel

1 week ago

USAF: “ The Combat Operations Division (COD) executes and monitors the Combined Force Air Component Commander’s daily Air Tasking Order (ATO), a document that directs daily air operations with respect to aircraft sorties, weapons loads and operational tasks. As one of five divisions within the Combined Air Operations Center (CAOC), the COD enables the CAOC to meet its mission as the primary command and control facility for Coalition air operations in the U.S. Central Command’s (USCENTCOM) Area of Responsibility (AOR). The COD serves as the CAOC’s dynamic around-the-clock operations floor.” https://www.afcent.af.mil/About/Fact-Sheets/Display/Article/217807/

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

USAF: “ The Combat Operations Division (COD) executes and monitors the Combined Force Air Component Commander’s daily Air Tasking Order (ATO), a document that directs daily air operations with respect to aircraft sorties, weapons loads and operational tasks. As one of five divisions within the Combined Air Operations Center (CAOC), the COD enables the CAOC to meet its mission as the primary command and control facility for Coalition air operations in the U.S. Central Command’s (USCENTCOM) Area of Responsibility (AOR). The COD serves as the CAOC’s dynamic around-the-clock operations floor.” https://www.afcent.af.mil/About/Fact-Sheets/Display/Article/217807/

0

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

A consensus of reporting clearly state that the raids are part of a wider invasion.

0

n/a

1 week ago

Yes, “combat operations” isn’t just “combat,” but the key here is that “combat” must still be an intended part of the operation. What we see here are raids focused on intelligence gathering, probing, and targeting infrastructure—there’s no clear intent for direct combat. The market requires Israeli forces to be deployed with the intent for combat, not just to collect information or disrupt infrastructure. Think about the Cold War: when the Americans and Soviets were spying on each other, was the intent for combat or simply gathering intelligence? It was clearly intelligence gathering, not combat. Similarly, these recent raids are about preparation and intel, not combat, therefore this should clearly resolve to “No.”

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

The 7 functions of Combat : https://advancedforcesgroup.com/en/the-7-functions-of-combat/

0

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

Combat Operations : https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase_(combat)

0

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

Again, combat operations, not combat alone. There’s a reason the word operations is in there.

0

n/a

1 week ago

Every piece of evidence out there talks about intelligence gathering, probing, and targeting infrastructure. These raids have been going on for months and are clearly part of a preparation strategy. There’s absolutely no credible source that mentions Israeli troops being deployed with the intent for direct combat. “Combat” literally means “fighting between armed forces”—not intelligence gathering or probing. The sources cited are vague and anonymous, lacking any named individuals or concrete intel with specific dates or times. It is clear as day that this must resolve to “No.”

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

No holders looking for ways out

1

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

It’s true, anything can happen in war.

0

VaithunPhuSang-Fabric

1 week ago

the market is crazy to predict :)))

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

CNN reports that the special forces raids included damaging Hezbollah outposts in preparation for the invasion. Those are exactly the kind of combat operations special operations personnel would conduct.

2

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

A scammer is someone who tells you that online betting is actually a AAA bond with unusually high interest.

0

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

Combat operations isn’t limited to a shootout. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase_(combat)

0

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

Not the only source. WSJ, CNN, Telegraph reported it. telegraph’s source was a briefing.

0

Nobody3

1 week ago

So the Anonymous source was bragging to his drinking buddies. No confirmation from Hezbollah. I have to confess, I can finally confess, I was that Anonymous Source

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

It’s funny how Yes holders are all providing research and sources while No holders are all threats.

1

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

The rules work on consensus of credible reporting. Right now they point to Yes. Burden of proof is on the counter argument.

1

n/a

1 week ago

There simply is no proof to answer this question yes. An unnamed US source said recently there where reconaissance operations. It does not say anything if it happened in the time frame from the 18th of September until today. We all agree that proof is needed to resolve, whether it is a polymarket or a legal case. And there is none yet.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

“ At the strategic level, a phase continue for years. Not all phases of combat include fighting between armed forces. Phases can, and usually do overlap, and sometimes can be planned for parallel execution, often as part of deception planning. Phases typically found in offensive military operations are: Preparation Intelligence gathering phase[1] Operations planning phase Logistics management phase Deception and counterintelligence phase Assembly phase” https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase_(combat)

0

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

Combat operations you mean

0

🤺JustKen

1 week ago

I think this is a good breakdown of the Yes/No arguments -- it will ultimately come down to how Polymarket defines "combat" -- https://discord.com/channels/710897173927297116/817444472009785366/1290308846543179802

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

Those aren’t the rules.

0

n/a

1 week ago

There’s no verified report of Israeli forces being deployed with the specific intent to neutralize threats or capture high-value targets in combat situations. Until there’s clear evidence of direct combat engagement, this market cannot justifiably resolve to “Yes”.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

Consensus of credible reporting also accepted

0

0x64D754C44852208575F9500ED1E4F10e6AD1512A-1722659354305

1 week ago

No official confirmation from either israel or hezbollah. A few reports the media talking about intelligence missions. This market cant resolve to yes.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

Operations is widely accepted as work. Combat operations as the work involved in combat.

0

RBvKrsr7ZfRK

1 week ago

Definition of ”combat”: fighting between armed forces

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

If someone told you there are AAA rated high yield bonds in prediction markets, that’s a scam.

0

Porcoddio

1 week ago

If there is any justice, at least one of two things will happen: 1) Market will be resolved as No. 2) People will realize the scam and start bidding No.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

Combat OPERATIONS includes various phases. Also, they destroyed Hezbollah outposts as reported by CNN

0

n/a

1 week ago

The literal definition of "Combat" is literally "Fighting between armed forces." I think that's all that needs to be said guys.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

Entering Lebanon is not disputed, it is widely reported that military personnel entered Lebanon

0

n/a

1 week ago

While a combat operation may not always involve shooting, the market rules require evidence of Israeli troops entering Lebanese territory specifically for combat. The current evidence shows intelligence gathering and infrastructure targeting, not combat with enemy forces. Even if a combat operation can be broader, intent matters. If the actions were not undertaken with the intent to engage in combat, they do not meet the market’s definition.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

CNN has reported that the Special Forces raids destroyed Hesbollah outposts

0

RBvKrsr7ZfRK

1 week ago

So far, there was only preparation for combat operations. It’s not yet decided whether there will be a combat operation at all, it could change any minute, however.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

But Israel aren’t planning on invading 100 countries. Reporting consensus is that the raids are in preparation for an invasion of Lebanon

0

n/a

1 week ago

Oh... here we go. The yes guys trying to make the Israeli infiltration mission of spies look like a ground combat operation... Well how many countries are on this planet? 195. I would say that at least in 100 of them Mossad agents have done missions. Were all of these considered ground combat operations?? I beg to differ.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

No, it requires combat OPERATIONS. At the strategic level, a phase continue for years. Not all phases of combat include fighting between armed forces. Phases can, and usually do overlap, and sometimes can be planned for parallel execution, often as part of deception planning. Phases typically found in offensive military operations are: Preparation Intelligence gathering phase[1] Operations planning phase Logistics management phase Deception and counterintelligence phase Assembly phase“

0

n/a

1 week ago

While a combat operation may not always involve shooting, the market rules require evidence of Israeli troops entering Lebanese territory specifically for combat. The current evidence shows intelligence gathering and infrastructure targeting, not combat with enemy forces. Even if a combat operation can be broader, intent matters. If the actions were not undertaken with the intent to engage in combat, they do not meet the market’s definition.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

Reconnaissance by special forces are the exact definition of combat OPERATIONS

0

abdendriel

1 week ago

AI isn’t the resolution source. Bar fights, street brawls are combat but so reasonably person would call that operations.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

AI isn’t the resolution source. Bar fights, street brawls are combat but so reasonably person would call that operations.

0

n/a

1 week ago

Intent of operations: The reported Israeli incursions into Lebanon appear to be primarily focused on intelligence gathering, infrastructure targeting, and preparatory operations, rather than direct combat engagement as required by the market criteria. Lack of official confirmation: There is no official confirmation from Israel or Hezbollah regarding these operations, which is a key requirement for resolution according to the market rules. Ongoing nature of operations: The reported raids and intelligence gathering activities have been occurring for months, suggesting they are part of a prolonged campaign rather than a specific combat event within the specified timeframe. Credibility of sources: The reports rely heavily on anonymous sources and potentially biased reporting, without official verification from the parties involved Lack of clear combat evidence: There is no verifiable evidence of Israeli troops entering Lebanon specifically for combat operations as defined by the market criteria The reported activities do not meet the specific requirements outlined in the market criteria for combat operations. Therefore, based on the current evidence and the market's stated resolution criteria, the market should resolve to "No”.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

That’s not the resolution source though

0

n/a

1 week ago

Ask any AI you want they're gonna say it should resolve to "No".

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

I don’t know anyone who considers “2 weeks ago” as recent days

0

JJJAY

1 week ago

Can you please explain to me how you deducted that this “small raids” happened between 18th to 30th of September from the words”recent days”?

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

As a favour to save you money on disputes, here’s CNN: “ Israeli special forces have carried out small raids into Lebanese territory in recent days as part of preparations for a potential ground offensive, two sources familiar with the matter said. Israeli commandos infiltrated Lebanese territory, targeting Hezbollah positions near the border to gather intelligence and destroy Hezbollah posts in the area, the sources said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military matters.” https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-lebanon-war-hezbollah-09-30-24-intl-hnk?Date=20240930&Profile=cnnbrk&utm_content=1727701705&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter#cm1oyu2yo00053b6mbx617w0l

0

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

Walk into a bar brawl. Are they conducting operations? In fact the special force targeted raids are more like combat operations

0

n/a

1 week ago

When Israeli soldiers enter Lebanon and start fighting, then you might call yourselves winners.

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

abdendriel

1 week ago

The IDF?

1

Porcoddio

1 week ago

This market has a volume of more than $890,000 and the (false) outcome was manipulated by one scammer.