#49
Rank
265
Comments
128
Likes Received
1
Likes Given
TheOneB
2 weeks ago
you're never, ever, in your entire life, ever getting trump to say crypto or bitcoin unless it's a event directly related to it.
n/a
2 weeks ago
I really need this win lmao
TheOneB
2 weeks ago
jd vance hasnt been mentioned in the last 10 speeches
n/a
2 weeks ago
JD Vance is a lock. She copy and pastes every speech.
TheOneB
2 weeks ago
Funniest market ive ever seen
TheOneB
2 weeks ago
meaningless, literally millions of republicans vote in democrat primaries
RobGCX
2 weeks ago
Voted in the Democratic primary on 3/5/24
TheOneB
2 weeks ago
he's never, ever going to say crypto
n/a
2 weeks ago
lets eat boys hes gonna say crypto
TheOneB
3 weeks ago
hey buddy why did you sell your trump shares at 45 then
n/a
3 weeks ago
THEY LET ME BUY TRUMP AT 50% LMFAO
TheOneB
3 weeks ago
this dude thinks order books mean anything lmao
rozi
3 weeks ago
Kamala's order book looks worse and worse, rather than better and better. I bought some Trump again :)
TheOneB
3 weeks ago
should have put this market up yesterday, way too late now
TheOneB
3 weeks ago
She mentioned in her first interview as well.
3 weeks ago
Kamala only mentioned Palestine/ Palestinians At the DNC. She hasn’t mentioned it in any other forum, and it’s likely a debate issue that will divide Jewish voters at the wider debate. Touchy and more likely referred to as the situation in Gaza.
TheOneB
3 weeks ago
the fact that it's a musical will quickly cut its legs. Might have a strong opening, but zero shot it will be anywhere near deadpool lol
TheFinalWord
3 weeks ago
everyone is massively underestimating Joker 2
TheOneB
3 weeks ago
nice try at pumping up joker's 2 price
TheFinalWord
3 weeks ago
everyone is massively underestimating Joker 2
TheOneB
3 weeks ago
buy more buddy, if you make the YES shares go down to 96c i will go all in :)
CansGonzalez
3 weeks ago
Just bought more. Kamala's debate staff just tested positive for Covid. Told ya! It's coming :)
TheOneB
3 weeks ago
enjoy losing all your money
CansGonzalez
3 weeks ago
Just bought more. Kamala's debate staff just tested positive for Covid. Told ya! It's coming :)
TheOneB
3 weeks ago
don't say i didn't warn yall lmao
TheOneB
3 weeks ago
538 makes this a easy kamala win
TheOneB
3 weeks ago
each of the convention did over 55 million on the final day during the candidate speech, so this feels like a very safe bet on+75m
TheOneB
0 months ago
total market size for this doubled in a few hours, i wonder why :)
TheOneB
1 month ago
Nothing ever happens
TheOneB
1 month ago
unless someone forgets to propose a resolution today, it's absolutely over
mr.monopoly
1 month ago
Its not over though
TheOneB
1 month ago
RIP freddi -$292,767.34
TheOneB
1 month ago
RCP has updated for the 31. As long as someone proposes a resolution right now, it's done.
mr.monopoly
1 month ago
Everyone selling trump and those that are thinking or currently own harris, this way closer than people think it is. If trump receives a +1 or better, this market would be tied. Additionally, there can very well be more than one more poll to come. In fact there can be 2 or 3 more since they can still print the 29th and 30th before they print the 31st.
TheOneB
1 month ago
Rasmussen starting their week with a +1 for Harris... if the next days mantain that trend she is going to jump a lot
TheOneB
1 month ago
yes , it happened last time and it will likely happen again
janchan
1 month ago
A lot of people saying this bet will be manipulated. How does that happen? Someone throwing money at Kamala stock for presidential winner? Did that happen before?
TheOneB
1 month ago
the entire section about holding AI companies criminally accountable was removed, what do you mean it didn't get weakened lmao
Justifax
1 month ago
https://www.kqed.org/news/12002254/california-bill-to-regulate-catastrophic-effects-of-ai-heads-to-newsoms-desk Even Wiener's buddy London Breed is against it.
TheOneB
1 month ago
can't wait to see the rug pull on trump share owners this friday
TheOneB
1 month ago
it will definitely pass, the bill got significantly weakened in its capacity thanks to lobbying by AI companies so there's no real danger to those companies anymore to let it go through
mr.monopoly
1 month ago
@Justifax Will California pass SB 1047 AI safety bill? I am curious to hear your reasoning as to why you dont think they will pass it as you are a fairly large no holder
TheOneB
1 month ago
he might get on his insane brazil rants and also spacex might get cleared for flight
ThatGuyMaybe
1 month ago
elon tweets past weeks count: 147, 103, 155, 85, 166, 86, and 172. Why so many betting on 180+? Like i get his pace is for 224 but it was really high in the start of last week too but still ended 174. Whats the reason he will break 180 this week?
TheOneB
1 month ago
i know medvedev is the favorite but 90/10 seems like crazy high odds imo
TheOneB
1 month ago
he bought Trump at a 68c average, he would still be several dozens of thousands of dollars in the red
diddy
1 month ago
This is not over! When a poll drops that gives bad points to Kamala to bring 30/8 to 1.6, it’s 50/50. One sweet poll is needed for Fredi to enjoy a long vacation on Bahamas
TheOneB
1 month ago
The data includes August 23, so it might increase the base day 0 numbers
n/a
1 month ago
She is at +4 this doesn't change anything...
TheOneB
1 month ago
@Camel-OHarris doesn't need to. As soon as a poll gets counted for the 31, it means there is now data for the 31 and it gets resolved then.
n/a
1 month ago
Rasmussen polls that closed today 8/31 will be among the last batch by RCP after the weekend. Trump is up nicely in them! EZ LOCK
TheOneB
1 month ago
Rasmussen polls are 4 days. This market closes as soon as a single poll gets counted for the 31. Rasmussen probably won't be it
n/a
1 month ago
Rasmussen polls that closed today 8/31 will be among the last batch by RCP after the weekend. Trump is up nicely in them! EZ LOCK
TheOneB
1 month ago
Elon Musk has no issues restricting freedom of speech, he bans every single person Modi from India tells him to.
Miutea
1 month ago
This has a terribly negative impact. Is this an attempt to restrict freedom of speech?
TheOneB
1 month ago
It resolves when data for August 31 appears on RCP. That will take until monday at a minimum
n/a
1 month ago
it's august 31. shouldn't this get resolved already?
TheOneB
1 month ago
this is 30 days tho
n/a
1 month ago
8% of X users are brazilians. All Elon needs to do is appoint someone in Brazil. He will do it with a lot of laywers. The chance of X staying off in Brazil for over 60 days is really low.
TheOneB
1 month ago
they get added to 8/30 numbers if the poll was conducted during that day
jl3128776
1 month ago
Note that we haven’t gotten RCP-included polls ending today. In this case, when the batch including 8/31 and beyond does get included eventually, that will trigger the market to go into review. And given that any polls ending 8/31 are only added to the 8/31 and not the 8/30 numbers, 8/30 will remain identical to right now. And that’s 1.8.
TheOneB
1 month ago
bro machine gunned those borders out goddamn
TheOneB
1 month ago
the law of the land is that Anatel is the one that actually puts the ban in effect. The ban is no in effect yet.
Justifax
1 month ago
"officially barrred".. the official statement has been made. the actually technical implementation is just a matter of execution. the law of the land is what's important.
TheOneB
1 month ago
from the rules ""Banned" is defined as Brazilian citizens are officially barred from downloading and/or viewing X/Twitter, and/or posting on X/Twitter."
Justifax
1 month ago
it's banned. the implementation of the ban is not relevant, what's important is it happened.
TheOneB
1 month ago
i wouldn't bet on yes or no at this point. Judge has sent notification to ban but the national ban might take up to 24 hours to enact.
TheOneB
1 month ago
https://g1.globo.com/politica/noticia/2024/08/30/moraes-suspende-o-x-no-brasil-apos-rede-nao-designar-um-representante-legal-no-pais.ghtml?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=g1 ban has been signed and sent to the national communications agency. the national communications agency has up to 24 hours to put the ban in effect.
TheOneB
1 month ago
@Tories4Harris the extras are literally part of the interview my guy. The entire interview has not been released.
semi
1 month ago
free money for no on abortion
TheOneB
1 month ago
elon should have deleted the illegal posts made by criminals. he didn't, he's getting the consequences. Elon complies with dictators all over the world and bans and deletes speech at the request of governments all the time. Go check what he does for India's Modi on a regular basis
td.
1 month ago
I am sorry for all the millions of people whose jobs are related to twitter. journalists. social media content creators like me too. just like that, one fanatic guy, the judge, tries to delete an entire social media platform. i really hope that elon musk can find a way to bypass this. twitter cannot go down. and they are projecting, they say that the billionaries or ceos are arrogant. but these judges in brazil are really the most arrogant people I have seen
TheOneB
1 month ago
no evidence that this interview has aired in it's entirety. they might have additional clips and cut out parts to release
semi
1 month ago
free money for no on abortion
TheOneB
1 month ago
what a wild ride
TheOneB
1 month ago
what a crazy comeback for 150
TheOneB
1 month ago
people who bought under 30 minutes for 80 cents...bruh the entire source for the claim is a random twitter blue maga dumbass
TheOneB
1 month ago
I agree. As far I understand from the Brazilian justice system, banning twitter would need to be a separate judicial act, separate from the consequences of this case.
Car
1 month ago
Seems like there is not enough time
TheOneB
1 month ago
he complies with the Indian government all the time to censor Modi's politicla opponents though
NIGGA
1 month ago
Musk has made strong statements about his resistance to censorship and his commitment to free speech -- complying with Brazil now would appear cowardly.
TheOneB
1 month ago
Rules state that market only ends when there is that for the 31. So it might not get resolved until monday
jl3128776
1 month ago
Let’s take a real tally of which polls could be added between now and end of tomorrow
TheOneB
1 month ago
that's probably Walz's line, not Kamala's
brokeidiot
1 month ago
weird is free money
TheOneB
1 month ago
yeah, it resolves at 50/50 if there is no change an Fredi bought his at over 60 average
n/a
1 month ago
The funny thing is, even if it stays at its current level, Fredi will still lose a lot of money.
TheOneB
1 month ago
last Quinniac poll was last month so it was not being counted
1 month ago
I don't understand. She is up by 3 points from the last Quinnipiac poll.
TheOneB
1 month ago
@Champ we might get a Fox News poll, but all signs point to Kamala getting a bump there as well
Plutos
1 month ago
Day 0 = 0 (1,6) Day 5 = +0,2 (1,8) - Currently Harris is winning, but there is still time to neglect this +0,2
TheOneB
1 month ago
mathematically impossible at this point
BayAreaVibes
1 month ago
Is it impossible for Trump to take the lead? That's too pessimistic, isn't it?
TheOneB
1 month ago
RIP Freddi's wallet
TheOneB
1 month ago
some good polls are coming out, should be added to RCP shortly
432
1 month ago
was there anz update_
TheOneB
1 month ago
how did you do that lmao
n/a
1 month ago
Oh shit I was looking at Trump Biden!!! I’m fucked
TheOneB
1 month ago
USA Today hasn't been added yet, nor Reuters. There will probably be a bump from Fox and Rasmussen as well
n/a
1 month ago
Deciding whether to say something or let you geniuses figure it out yourselves
TheOneB
1 month ago
+4 Reuters, +5 USA Today, likely to gain a point from the previous Rasmussen poll and looking to potentially tie or be up a point on Fox News poll... the +2.5 dream is real
TheOneB
1 month ago
with him failing to withdraw in half of the swing states, i think over %1 is actually a possibility.
TheOneB
1 month ago
@sosuke yes, it was days ago, but it still affects the market because it's a significant amount of the total shares of this market
n/a
1 month ago
Why is the share price still only at 75c with all the information pointing to the fact that Kamala can’t virtually lose this market?
TheOneB
1 month ago
to be fair this was entirely due to SpaceX failure
Slaylorswift
1 month ago
lol tried to warn people
TheOneB
1 month ago
Fox News might give her a bump as well since she has gotten a bump on their battleground states poll
diddy
1 month ago
Morning Consult gives higher points to Trump than Biden, historically, contrary to USA Today. Morning Consult is at +4 Kamala. USA Today may as well give her +5, I think this may be an unexpected shocker
TheOneB
1 month ago
check the top holders. one single guy is holding over 400k shares of Trump, bringing Kamala price down
n/a
1 month ago
Why is the share price still only at 75c with all the information pointing to the fact that Kamala can’t virtually lose this market?
TheOneB
1 month ago
https://x.com/umichvoter/status/1828915899446755697 Fox News battlegrounds polls show improvement for Kamala. Bodes well for the Fox News national poll in favor of Kamala if they publish it before end of market.
TheOneB
1 month ago
as long as it's +1 for Kamala on their poll it will improve Kamala's average since this will be their first Kamala poll
n/a
1 month ago
Good or bad for kamala?
TheOneB
1 month ago
RCP gets updated when a poll in their list of pollsters releases a finished poll. Rasmussen polls people for 4 days and then average the results from those 4 days. With the current results, that means +2 Trump with the current results (was +3 Trump last week). There's one day left so things might change, but he would need a significant jump to change the average of the rasmussen poll. The absolute worst for Kamala i can see happening here would be it staying +3 Trump here, which would still result in a win for Kamala in this market due to the yahoo poll.
432
1 month ago
What a nonsense people write here.Diffrence was on August 23 1.6 points today its 1.7 points so a lousy 0.1 point
TheOneB
1 month ago
oh, so you don't understand how RCP polling average works. Once this week's Rasmussen's poll hits, the one from last week ceases to exist for the RCP average calculation!
432
1 month ago
What a nonsense people write here.Diffrence was on August 23 1.6 points today its 1.7 points so a lousy 0.1 point
TheOneB
1 month ago
more market manipulation markers, i love it
TheOneB
1 month ago
there was no Rasmussen polling on the 23rd so i'm not sure what you're talking about. last rasmussen combined polling was Kamala 46 Trump 49. She is so far averaging 47 this week.
432
1 month ago
What a nonsense people write here.Diffrence was on August 23 1.6 points today its 1.7 points so a lousy 0.1 point
TheOneB
1 month ago
i like how he can't tell that Kamala in Rasmussen in 8/15 - 8/21 period literally had a day with 42 which massively pulled her down. her average is consistently higher
diddy
1 month ago
432 you clearly don’t understand what you’re talking about
TheOneB
1 month ago
...she was 3 points down last week buddy
432
1 month ago
What a nonsense people write here.Diffrence was on August 23 1.6 points today its 1.7 points so a lousy 0.1 point
TheOneB
1 month ago
you might want to re-read those numbers my friend. Trump is +2 for this week (this might change tomorrow but he would need a pretty big difference to change the average out for rasmussen)
432
1 month ago
What a nonsense people write here.Diffrence was on August 23 1.6 points today its 1.7 points so a lousy 0.1 point
TheOneB
1 month ago
you seem a bit confused, the guy who does the polls is showing the stats for each day. Trump is +2 on their poll right now. He was +3 on their last poll, which gets erased from the average tomorrow :)
432
1 month ago
What a nonsense people write here.Diffrence was on August 23 1.6 points today its 1.7 points so a lousy 0.1 point
TheOneB
1 month ago
it's looking very likely that Kamala has gotten higher in Rassmussen poll, so... :)
432
1 month ago
What a nonsense people write here.Diffrence was on August 23 1.6 points today its 1.7 points so a lousy 0.1 point
TheOneB
1 month ago
Mathematically impossible
0x23D185eB0ae8Fc4ad8131b6f662153037223d302-1724753956851
1 month ago
Trump lead
TheOneB
1 month ago
Lots of time until end of market and she has been trending positively in most recent polls. Even conservative pollsters like Kaplan and Echelon have her reaching positive favorability in recent polls
TheOneB
1 month ago
I think town halls tend to be a lot shorter than his rallies no? I dont doubt he will say it a handful but i think there might not be time for 25
LMNOP
1 month ago
He said Border 59 times in his speech in AZ five days ago. Agreed it seems unlikely here but it's definitely in contention.
TheOneB
1 month ago
Border 25 times seems like a easy no
TheOneB
1 month ago
103. X tracker still has him at a pace to hit 153 posts.
Xyron26
1 month ago
how much now
TheOneB
1 month ago
since it's a joint interview with waltz, can we get a market that encompasses both?
TheOneB
1 month ago
RCP has it as 1.6 on day 0, not 1.7
n/a
1 month ago
But but DNC bounce??? bruh, convention bounce used to take place because it resparked momentum in a candidate. There is no resparkling on someone appointed a month ago
TheOneB
1 month ago
you mean 1.7
n/a
1 month ago
The Yahoo/YouGov poll released a few minutes ago will bring this to 1.40 once RCP updates. https://x.com/iapolls2022/status/1828553147586846854?s=46
TheOneB
1 month ago
Updated to +1.7. If Rassmussen stays +3 tomorrow.. its gg folks, Kamala wins
TheOneB
1 month ago
Buddy she just bounced to 1.7
n/a
1 month ago
But but DNC bounce??? bruh, convention bounce used to take place because it resparked momentum in a candidate. There is no resparkling on someone appointed a month ago
TheOneB
1 month ago
Rasmussen tomorrow is the only one with a sure date. We are bound to get some CNN, CBS, Ipsos, Harvard-Harris and CBS before the end of the market, but no guarantees
scattering
1 month ago
When can we expect the polls
TheOneB
1 month ago
how do you feel now?
n/a
1 month ago
No shot
TheOneB
1 month ago
7 hours to go to the spacex launch yeah? unless i got my timezones mixed up
TheOneB
1 month ago
I believe last time they had battleground estimates Biden was still in the race
1 month ago
How does it compare to their previous poll?
TheOneB
1 month ago
https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/1828532259219218628 it's the calculated diferential
n/a
1 month ago
don't see +5 anywhere on there
TheOneB
1 month ago
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/2024-harris-trump-polling-michigan-wisconsin-arizona-nevada-north-carolina/ Kamala +5 on a battleground states poll. Bodes very well for a big Kamala jump in CBS nationwide poll
TheOneB
1 month ago
that makes no sense, if anything a lot of those pollsters have missed big Kamala swings that will reflect now.
Justifax
1 month ago
Ras +4 or +5? I think +5 has a pretty good chance. Harvard Harris will be big at +4. CNN? Probably +1 Trump or event. Was in june and july. Maybe yahoo not sure what they will do.
TheOneB
1 month ago
Rasmussen are very consistent and will have one tomorrow. Others have no certain dates to them, but there's a lot of pollsters that will want to have updated numbers after the DNC and RFK drop out within the market's timeline
n/a
1 month ago
When are new poll results supposed to come out for this?
TheOneB
1 month ago
It's pretty much a given. This is a perfect week to run updated polls due to the DNC and RFK dropping out
diddy
1 month ago
So it is an assumption that there will be some random polls in the next 3 days and that they will give a good boost to Kamala, not persuasive enough
TheOneB
1 month ago
Only the last poll by each polling company counts for the average. This means there's over 10 pollsters which haven't updated since the beginning of the month that can give a Kamala bump regardless of DNC bump
n/a
1 month ago
Why would the oldest polls drop out by Aug 30? They won’t be a month old
TheOneB
1 month ago
no, but has said China three times now.
RB-79K_BALL
1 month ago
does chinese count?
TheOneB
1 month ago
If you look at Rasmussen's history, Harris has been constantly gaining ground. Trump was +5 at the beggining of the month, then +4, then +3 in the most recent one. Wouldn't surprise me if their polls doesn't change this week either.
Eridpnc
1 month ago
So, which poll will balance out Rasmussen’s trump +25?
TheOneB
1 month ago
Lots of RCP pollsters have not released new polls since the beggining of the month. Big potential of Kamala bumps from them, regardless of DNC bump
Justifax
1 month ago
I agree Harris has the advantage with the DNC bounce, but this should be priced around 65 or so.
TheOneB
1 month ago
Last ABC poll was on the 13, pretty likely they do one for the end of the month
diddy
1 month ago
We have Rasmussen dropping on 28th. ABC & CBS would both likely give Kamala a lead but they won’t drop during this timeframe, anyone got other ideas which other RCP poll may drop?
TheOneB
1 month ago
so... you and Freddi? :)
n/a
1 month ago
Trump holders, WE ARE GONNA WIN SO MUCH, YOU MIGHT EVEN GET TIRED OF WINNING!
TheOneB
1 month ago
honestly, all you gotta do is check RCP's pollsters and see how many of them have their latest poll done before 11 of August. A Kamala bump is basically guaranteed.
diddy
1 month ago
Baseline was already 1.5, that was the latest average before 23 Aug. it is 50%50 as of now, Kamala needs lead
TheOneB
1 month ago
RCP has updated for August 23, baseline is confirmed to be +1.5. Easy win here :)
TheOneB
1 month ago
Morning Consult is the only pollster counted by RCP releasing a poll today. Their last poll was +4 Harris
TheOneB
1 month ago
i'm saying it's a additional +1 in the polling average my guy. That would put her at +2.5 total. if RCP's included conservative pollsters have the same result as Echelon lmao
n/a
1 month ago
Y'all really decided to dump this down to 20% based on a blog post without even having access to final Day 0's data 🤣🤣
TheOneB
1 month ago
please go to the RCP page and see their conservative pollsters. Now imagine they all get the same exact results as Echelon this week... that would be a bump of +1 to Kamala my guy lmao
n/a
1 month ago
Y'all really decided to dump this down to 20% based on a blog post without even having access to final Day 0's data 🤣🤣
TheOneB
1 month ago
nothing ever happens
TheOneB
1 month ago
buddy, that's one single poll. By a conservative pollster. By a pollster that isn't counted in the RCP polling average lmao
n/a
1 month ago
Y'all really decided to dump this down to 20% based on a blog post without even having access to final Day 0's data 🤣🤣
TheOneB
1 month ago
Kaplan Strategies , a right wing pollster just published a Kamala +7 poll lmao (doesn't affect RCP's average, but still)
TheOneB
1 month ago
you should buy more buddy
n/a
1 month ago
Y'all really decided to dump this down to 20% based on a blog post without even having access to final Day 0's data 🤣🤣
TheOneB
1 month ago
some folks saw a couple of polls where Trump is winning, but they did no actual research about the polls . all of the polls in question had trump polling better on their last iteration, so it's actually a Harris bump in the average lmao
n/a
1 month ago
Why are people panic selling Harris... Am I missing something?
TheOneB
1 month ago
They dont update shit during the weekends. Maybe later today
n/a
1 month ago
Why is RCP so slow to update? the latest is still 22nd, so theres still no baseline
TheOneB
1 month ago
do some math and buy both R Presidency D Pop vote and D Presidency and D Pop Vote, it's basically a guaranteed 30% or so profit
resemble
1 month ago
help me choose
TheOneB
1 month ago
with him staying on the ballot in the vast majority of states and with the DNC bump from a day before he dropped out, i believe he will have minimal influence in the polls in the short term (that market is only for the first 7 days after he drops out) Trump will possibly get a significant bump later though as RFK continues to campaign with him and whatnot.
bko
1 month ago
With the comments RFK made about the democrats on Friday, I'm not sure I agree with your bet Harris gaining though. I like the hedge plan though.
TheOneB
1 month ago
I'm a "no" buyer but i don't think "no" will actually win. Just a backup plan in case it does win and it fucks up my "If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?" market lol
TheOneB
1 month ago
yep. and with a major Space X event starting on the 27
DoughJones
1 month ago
75. Elon's up and running
TheOneB
1 month ago
there's two other RFK drop out markets that are now fully resolved. It wouldn't make any sense for the decision to be different here.
TheOneB
1 month ago
spacex space walk event makes it practically certain. he will retweet and quote many videos from that event
Fordupo
1 month ago
Now let's pray that he keeps this pace
TheOneB
1 month ago
Almost halfway to 150 with 5 days to go...its over
TheOneB
1 month ago
man's yapping like crazy, 65 tweets already and over 5 days to go
CKnow
1 month ago
Doug he’s gonna blow past 150 by tomorrow at this pace wtf
TheOneB
1 month ago
Currently on pace to 187 lmao
TheOneB
1 month ago
Very strong pace in the first days and SpaceX's Polaris Dawn mission make +150 a bargain imo
TheOneB
1 month ago
Check the rules, there's a tracker there
jolanvnloo
1 month ago
where do i track? is there a site
TheOneB
1 month ago
My browser bookmark for Polymarket is Freddi's profile page in case he does something like this again lol
n/a
1 month ago
I was distracted the day this market came out and I'm kicking myself for it so hard. So much free money : (
TheOneB
1 month ago
market is finally correcting to what it should have been ages ago. One single guy holds over 98% of all Trump shares lol
1 month ago
What is going on?
TheOneB
1 month ago
oh i absolutely agree with you. Especially for this particular market, since it's ending in August 31. Even if RFK replacing Vance happened, zero chance it's within the next 6 days.
AccountNames
1 month ago
What's the cause of this pump?
TheOneB
1 month ago
pls come back freddi Kamala shares are getting expensive
TheOneB
1 month ago
absolutely zero chance of a flip by August 31
TheOneB
1 month ago
some folks started flying around rumours of RFK replacing Vance
AccountNames
1 month ago
What's the cause of this pump?
TheOneB
1 month ago
like, there's a reason there's literally nobody buying Trump shares but one single guy
1 month ago
Bro your model literally says Trump up 1.1 Harris up .8
TheOneB
1 month ago
please read the entire thing "And second, we’re seeing the beginnings of a convention bounce for Harris. Even with the Kennedy change, She’s now ahead by 4.0 points in the national polling average versus 2.3 points when the DNC started. Our best guess is that her lead will increase further, especially given that almost none of the polling was done after her strong acceptance speech on Thursday."
1 month ago
Bro your model literally says Trump up 1.1 Harris up .8
TheOneB
1 month ago
it would be at 95% if it wasn't for Freddi, to be fair
diddy
1 month ago
Nevertheless this looks like free money after a deep analysis tbh…whichever way, Kamala should win, I am surprised this isn’t at 90% by now
TheOneB
1 month ago
it's so insane one has to wonder if Fredi is planning a Ocean's Eleven style heist on RCP's headquarters
GenericUser1234
1 month ago
I dont think i’ve ever seen such a lopsided market. Fredi is like 99% of the No market. If the polls dont go his way in the coming days, he won’t even be able to sell. It’ll move to 90+ Yes relatively quickly and stay there. Such a crazy risky bet on his part
TheOneB
1 month ago
i mean, it doesn't need to be long lasting. it's one week
diddy
1 month ago
RFK happened, and the DNC bounce isn’t long-lasting, this is largely ambiguous until we see if bounce is even real
TheOneB
1 month ago
I hope he comes back i want more Kamala 45$ shares :(
diddy
1 month ago
Why isn’t Fredi pumping this market anymore, he did $150k in the last 24hrs on presidential bid
TheOneB
1 month ago
yeah, there is real chance that for example Kamala recedes to 1.4 in this week, which would resolve as a win on Trump. But it won't be because of RFK, which will have a minimal , maybe outright non existant effect. 7 days is just too little time. And even if you believe the distribution on the poll above.... those are only 7 states. RCP is a nationwide average.
DevinF
1 month ago
But look at the rules here. It just just looking at polling average in general after RFK drops out so it is not directly attributed. To much noise with the DNC happening now too to assume Trump will gain in the average. This bet is a coin toss so maybe trump still the play.
TheOneB
1 month ago
just found what he is talking about, which is extremely funny and made by the Trump team https://x.com/MediumBuying/status/1827069435397730529
diddy
1 month ago
I have searched on interactive polling, and I only see polls favoring Kamala. To what are you referring to exactly?
TheOneB
1 month ago
Also, please check the top holders for each side. Trump chances are being entirely held up by a whale who is 200k in the red. If you took away his shares this would be a 90/10 market in favor of Kamala
0x979ed008e1128B4580333b9E672b33c51bB0c2a2-1723397206012
1 month ago
You guys do know that there was already a poll showing 68% going to Trump and 20% going to Harris?
TheOneB
1 month ago
Twitter polls are not real polls. This is about the RCP polling average in the 7 days after RFK dropping out. In addition, RFK will still be a option in the polls in 90% of states, so the RFK effect will be minimal
0x979ed008e1128B4580333b9E672b33c51bB0c2a2-1723397206012
1 month ago
You guys do know that there was already a poll showing 68% going to Trump and 20% going to Harris?
TheOneB
1 month ago
Thank you Freddi for all the liquidity
TheOneB
1 month ago
anything later than today would be completely absurd when every RFK drop out market is closing now
Justifax
1 month ago
Freddi, and friends of freddi, you should go on the discord and get them to use the #s as of right now. Some people are very weirdly trying to argue later numbers.
TheOneB
1 month ago
good observation, but sadly there's lack of liquidity in that market
diddy
1 month ago
I’ll give you a nice tip guys, go bet on 1-1.4 polling on Harris while it’s cheap. Figure out the math, she has averaged 1.5 this week, if she performs better then she this market on Kamala wins, if she loses, 1-1.4 market on Kamala polling will win. It’s a win-win at approx 60-65% bet, 35-40% profit
TheOneB
1 month ago
every "drop out" market is now at 99%. betting on Kamala is a fantastic deal now. Not only is a week not enough for the polls to be impact, RFK will also be on the polls in the states he didn't drop out of, diminishing his impact.
TheOneB
1 month ago
Yeah, people who bought Yes on Bernie endorsing Kamala before the convention got burned lol
Bank.
1 month ago
Endorsements are a form of support, not all expressions of support are formal endorsements.
TheOneB
1 month ago
Until the end of friday in ET time
Edemil
1 month ago
how much time left?
TheOneB
1 month ago
If this counts as dropping out, the fact that he remains on the ballot in most states means that the influence this will have on polls will be less than expected
TheOneB
1 month ago
Yeah i wonder how this will be handled. We might need someone to propose a resolution
GenericUser1234
1 month ago
If Polymarket/UMA ends up deciding on that today counts as RFK dropping out, we need to know for sure what day counts as "day 0" for the timeline kickoff, otherwise we'll be blind trading without being able to track what is what
TheOneB
1 month ago
Imo if you drop out of enough states that even if 100% of the remaining states voting for you wouldnt land you a electoral college victory you should be considere to be dropped out
GenericUser1234
1 month ago
This market (https://polymarket.com/event/will-rfk-jr-drop-out-by-aug-23?tid=1724440532272) is behaving as if RFK suspending will not count as "Dropping out". if that is confirmed here as well, then the market will settle 50/50
TheOneB
1 month ago
"i believe i would win the election" lmao
TheOneB
1 month ago
*100k in the red
TheOneB
1 month ago
Fredi9999 is wild, 50k in the red and singlehandedly holding 90% of Trump shares
TheOneB
1 month ago
Fredi9999 is wild, 50k in the red and singlehandedly holding 90% of Trump shares
TheOneB
1 month ago
he will endorse Trump, but there's no reason for him to say that at the friday address instead of Trump's rally a few hours later
Paganheat
1 month ago
Insane how low Yes is right now when all major new sources are predicting he’s gonna endorse Trump. Lots of market manipulators in these comments
TheOneB
1 month ago
RFK's VP pick says they "probably" wouldn't endorse Trump if he didn't admit it. But honestly seems like a bluff on her part, i think they are going to endorse Trump regardless.
n/a
1 month ago
"Has he ever admitted to any of his failures (multiple bankruptcies, failed election, etc.)? It seems he is more of a 'blame others, no honor' kind of guy."
TheOneB
1 month ago
why don't you bet on Trump then? with a simple 100$ bet you could win 2100$ ! do it!
Scrounge
1 month ago
Any bet on Harris is a loss 😆 I've got an idea, instead of waisting your money on anything Harris, just give it to me 😆
TheOneB
1 month ago
that might very well be true in the long term, but this ridiculous market is about the 7 days after he drops out, and RCP takes their time adding polls to their average.
LMNOP
1 month ago
Trump's got a ton of RFK votes to pick up here. I don't see any good news here for Harris. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/
TheOneB
1 month ago
is there no market for Trump's rally?
TheOneB
1 month ago
why don't you bet then?
SofaKingWittArdid
1 month ago
Trump yes is cheap at 7. Fair price right now is 80.
TheOneB
1 month ago
7 days is just not enough for polls to adjust, crazy market imo
Justifax
1 month ago
Of course, are we really betting on whether or not RCP decides to put its finger on the scales temporarily to show a loss of momentum after the DNC / bump from RFK?
TheOneB
1 month ago
this is the stupidest market i've ever seen, polls take time to conduct and release, the likelihood of RFK dropping out being seen in the first week after dropping out is practically non existent! That's not to say that a Trump bet can't win since he could get a unrelated rebound, but it will have nothing to do with RFK
0xfB11DFb23D43c3F25aB37bEcc16af43903dd15eE-1721763905746
1 month ago
Is 1 week even long enough for new polls to come in with the context if RFK dropping out?
TheOneB
1 month ago
might wanna look at the rules lil buddy
KamalaLost
1 month ago
anyone vetting for kamala unironically when its obv most rfk supporters were previous trump fans will lose all their money 🤣🤣🤣
TheOneB
1 month ago
Why was mcdonalds an option i was so confused when it was added
Cheekycheekymonky
1 month ago
Lost every single bet
TheOneB
1 month ago
So happy right now
SenecaTheYounger
1 month ago
WE DID IT CEASEFIRE BROS
TheOneB
1 month ago
Lets goooo ceasefire bros
TheOneB
1 month ago
Bill Clinton with the ceasefire talk as well
TheOneB
1 month ago
tampon bros losing for the first time?
TheOneB
1 month ago
Biden, AOC and Bernie Sanders speeches all talked about ceasefire.
TheOneB
1 month ago
why is Mark Cuban still at 15%?
TheOneB
1 month ago
to be fair you're betting on unburdened, a word she hasn't said in like 4 years
IONLYBETONX
1 month ago
do i trust someone whos 12k in the hole? hm
TheOneB
1 month ago
he basically started the "weird" thing
homosexual
1 month ago
Does Walz say "weird" a lot?
TheOneB
1 month ago
ceasefire is a given. protests are getting a lot of attention so she will at least pretend to care
TheOneB
1 month ago
she has said it in most of her rallies
CAPNCOOK
1 month ago
Hillary said abortion in her speech, this tells me they won't be shying away from the word this week.
TheOneB
1 month ago
the thing is that the RCP polling average I believe is adjusted for the last 28 days. So there are a lot of very Trump leaning polls from before Biden dropped out about to expire
n/a
1 month ago
Last time it was Harris by 1. I wonder if people think she'll be in the 1.5-1.9 range because of the DNC? I don't think Trump had much of a boost at all from the RNC, but maybe people think that the DNC will be better produced, and let Kamala go back to her vibes-over-substance strategy. That may be what she needs after her chances have peaked here lately, in response to her coming forward with a half-baked economic policy proposal that threatens the monetary interests of some media owners. .5-.9 seems totally possible and undervalued. 1-1.4 is safe based on current info and last result. No on 1.5-1.9 is undervalued IMO
TheOneB
1 month ago
It's 1.4 right now. with over three full days left for this to end i think it's certain it will reach 1.5
n/a
1 month ago
Last time it was Harris by 1. I wonder if people think she'll be in the 1.5-1.9 range because of the DNC? I don't think Trump had much of a boost at all from the RNC, but maybe people think that the DNC will be better produced, and let Kamala go back to her vibes-over-substance strategy. That may be what she needs after her chances have peaked here lately, in response to her coming forward with a half-baked economic policy proposal that threatens the monetary interests of some media owners. .5-.9 seems totally possible and undervalued. 1-1.4 is safe based on current info and last result. No on 1.5-1.9 is undervalued IMO
TheOneB
1 month ago
why is R Presidency, D Popular Vote so cheap? if you think Trump is going to win the election this seems like a bargain
TheOneB
1 month ago
did he bring up Elon before taking questions at the last press conference?
TheOneB
1 month ago
it's a press conference, some journalist might ask about it
Eridpnc
1 month ago
Why are people buying lisp?
TheOneB
1 month ago
does trump even say "fake news" anymore?
TheOneB
1 month ago
i'm trying to pump it so i can get cheap nos buddy
🤺JustKen
1 month ago
Moron. No offense.
TheOneB
1 month ago
Trump Jr has continously hinted at a Trump crypto currency. I could see it being announced here
TheOneB
1 month ago
she spoke on 2020
n/a
1 month ago
Do you think she will speak? Any source?
TheOneB
1 month ago
LMAO
TheOneB
1 month ago
he doesn't even know the name of the company
and
1 month ago
he's gonna say tesla
TheOneB
1 month ago
praising venezuela lmao
TheOneB
1 month ago
electric cars lmao
TheOneB
1 month ago
wrapping up
TheOneB
1 month ago
Compound words will count as long as "trans" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to sexual/gender identity which differs from ones sex at birth (i.e. "Transgender" counts).
jenkins
1 month ago
“bullet trans"
TheOneB
1 month ago
i should have bought tampons
TheOneB
1 month ago
"Everything is obsolete including your rockets" lmao
TheOneB
1 month ago
Mars gotta go to zero already, this man is not saying it
TheOneB
1 month ago
his MAGA was about Argentina, not America.
plant
1 month ago
why are people wanting to buy MAGA at 0.1c ??? 100,000 order
TheOneB
1 month ago
this man does not know the name of the cars
TheOneB
1 month ago
trump is a boomer who doesn't know understand about bitcoin
TheLamb
1 month ago
do you think he will say bitcoin soon
TheOneB
1 month ago
never happening
TheLamb
1 month ago
do you think he will say bitcoin soon
TheOneB
1 month ago
if the conversation goes to Walz i think it's a lock. but doesn't seem like it will go that way lmao
mrcrayon
1 month ago
why would yall bet on tampon lmao
TheOneB
1 month ago
trump doesnt give a single crap about crypto lmao
yuzogi
1 month ago
just talk about crypto while talking about inflation omfg bro
TheOneB
1 month ago
no it isn't. inflation slowed down slightly, which is very different. inflation is still getting worse every day
n/a
1 month ago
inflation is down according to statistics
TheOneB
1 month ago
"Compound words will count as long as "MAGA" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to making America great again (e.g. "MAGA-themed" counts). shouldn't count, the A stood for Argentina , not America
TheOneB
1 month ago
does Trump not know that Elon's company is called Tesla or something this is so funny
TheOneB
1 month ago
"your product is incredible" and not even say " Tesla", this is so funny
TheOneB
1 month ago
yes, it's in the rules
TBK
1 month ago
does "make america great again" count as MAGA?
TheOneB
1 month ago
probably weird, which is a word that can be used in the middle of the conversation even without talking about the whole "they're calling me weird" thing
TheLamb
1 month ago
what is undervalued right now
TheOneB
1 month ago
it's August 23, neither of them have stopped rambling. Trump still hasn't said Mars
betoor
1 month ago
til they talk themselves out
TheOneB
1 month ago
how is crypto and bitcoin still that high nobody is going to talk about crypto in this fucking thing lmao
TheOneB
1 month ago
elon bringing up illegal immigration and trump still not saying it lmao
TheOneB
1 month ago
at this stage i think only "weird" is a lock, and it won't even be used in the context expected lol
TheOneB
1 month ago
this is such a retarded conversation, RIP whoever bought yes mars
TheOneB
1 month ago
he said that "waltz is being into transgender"(and "transgender" counts as per the rules) and she called the algerian boxer trans in a recent rally
skrtttttttttt
1 month ago
i cant remember the last time trump has said "trans"
TheOneB
1 month ago
yes, the rules have it as a "No" win in that case
n/a
1 month ago
What happen on poly market if the talk is not happening? Does the no win it all?
TheOneB
1 month ago
apparently the interview with Logan Paul lasted one hour, so i assume it will be similar here
truetalent
1 month ago
0 chance they will get together to talk in a scheduled live event and it won't be at least 30-45 mins
TheOneB
1 month ago
is it a in person interview ?
TheOneB
1 month ago
interview will be hosted on Trump's twitter account, this seems like a lock for yes https://x.com/XSpaces/status/1822813953942040585
TheOneB
1 month ago
does anybody know the rough estimate of the duration of the interview? feels like half of the words are pretty much a lock if it goes over 30 minutes
TheOneB
1 month ago
Kamala up by 0.5 right now. with trump lack of campaigning, i can see it widening to over 1 by august 16
TheOneB
1 month ago
volleyball looking like a no for the US
TheOneB
1 month ago
i'll admit that I panicked a bit. No worries though, learned my lesson lol
GoblinMilk
1 month ago
bro why did you sell at 75c when you bought at 94. US will pump a bit right before wrestling
TheOneB
1 month ago
yeah autocorrect messed me up lol
alyap
1 month ago
Basketball, not baseball
TheOneB
1 month ago
USA 38 medals, China 39. Both have one gold locked tomorrow (women's baseball, weighlifting). USA has three shots at a gold where they're not the favorites, but it only takes winning one of the shots to tie the medals and therefore resolve to a yes.
TheOneB
1 month ago
france takes the lead
TheOneB
1 month ago
imo USA should be 60% because a tie still resolves to a yes. I'm out though lmao
TheOneB
1 month ago
yeah, Liu is 2023's world champion and has better w/l ratio. imane is overpriced
5to5000
1 month ago
Liu has better odds than most give. It's not like the Algerian is unbeatable at all.
TheOneB
1 month ago
gold for USA in 4x100 women's relay
TheOneB
1 month ago
USA has a chance of like 6 golds in the next hour and a half
TheOneB
1 month ago
USA favored to get two golds in wrestling
TheOneB
1 month ago
If you actually look at Imane Khelif career stats you will see she is being massively overvalued. the chinese boxer is the current world champion and has better w/l stats
PolyPredictor
1 month ago
Just realized i got my fills. Joined the USA team. Mornings are good for china but USA should get 5 golds this afternoon to close this out
TheOneB
1 month ago
china can get two gold medals on boxing this night
PolyPredictor
1 month ago
Just realized i got my fills. Joined the USA team. Mornings are good for china but USA should get 5 golds this afternoon to close this out
TheOneB
1 month ago
overpriced if anything
Werty1
1 month ago
I really fuckibg got usa at 66c???
TheOneB
1 month ago
good luck, you're losing to serbia right now lol
Culture
1 month ago
Now 30 medals for the USA and 28 for the filthy Asians, and the 31st medal in men's basketball is coming up.
TheOneB
1 month ago
second quarter over, usa still down by 12
TheOneB
1 month ago
USA 32- Serbia 47, not looking great for americans even if they pump it in the last half
TheOneB
1 month ago
turns out he raced with covid
cockbrain
1 month ago
lyles did not look ok
TheOneB
1 month ago
waterpolo loss despite US being favorites, oooof
TheOneB
1 month ago
he has ashtma i believe
cockbrain
1 month ago
lyles did not look ok
TheOneB
1 month ago
if US loses women's long jump is time to jump ship
TheOneB
1 month ago
yeah, time to buy china at this point
GoblinMilk
1 month ago
If Noah Lyles loses gold take that as a bad omen and abandon ship.
TheOneB
1 month ago
Noah Lyles got wrecked, ooops
TheOneB
1 month ago
if US mess literally any of the athletics today it's a 50/50 chance
n/a
1 month ago
no chance china wins lol
TheOneB
1 month ago
feels like USA chances have to go back to like 82% after today, what a mess
TheOneB
1 month ago
china gold in canoeing and looking to taking all the remaining diving golds
TheOneB
1 month ago
china making a absolute comeback and USA losing multiple certain golds, amazing
TheOneB
1 month ago
Well not really automatic, she will face Yusneylis Guzman
PolyPredictor
1 month ago
Wrestling 50kg Freestyle Women Vinesh DQ'ed missing weight by 100g. So thats an automatic gold for USA
TheOneB
1 month ago
easiest money
TheOneB
1 month ago
they have a good chance of taking women's boxing welterweight. Imane Khelif is way too overvalued due to the controversy
CxaTX1n
1 month ago
China will get 5 golds (maybe even 6 in Mens 73KG) in weightlifting. That's baked in. They'd need that 6th, 3 canoe golds, the US only bringing home more 5 golds in Track, which is a ~2% chance, botch the Soccer and Polo final, and get upset by China in Shotput for China to win this. People have to be dreaming big
TheOneB
1 month ago
Kamala is the official nominee, and that's why it's already determined.
Yesman1
1 month ago
Im new here but im trying to understand. It says end date August 22nd, but weve already determined its a no?
TheOneB
1 month ago
on the other hand, IO2 will be on theaters for a long long while
n/a
2 months ago
Some may not be considering the competitors to IO2 and D&W as well... IO2 has to contend with Despicable Me. D&W has a much easier slate of competition until Alien Romulus. As of Aug. 3 AM (PT), 2024 gross is IO2 = $620M and D&W = $298M. Also check out repeat watcher and social media impressions/engagement. When this breaks all R-rated records and gets more media, next weekend could also be historic as a result of the newsworthiness. I think this can be closer than some may think even with an R-rated film vs pixar.
TheOneB
1 month ago
GABBY THOMAS LETS GOOO
TheOneB
1 month ago
with the women's soccer team going to the final and Cole Hocker shocking win today i'm a lot more bullish on USA win
TheOneB
1 month ago
me who had bought Waltz at 5 cents and sold at 7: oopsie
TheOneB
1 month ago
because she is officially the nominee, factually
PanosMariolis2001
1 month ago
Democratic nominee 2024 , what if something happens to Kamala ? What if she gets sick ? I don't understand why you end this market so soon
TheOneB
2 months ago
https://twitter.com/tylerpager/status/1819932873719271441?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1819932873719271441%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url= finalists seem to be Shapiro , Waltz and Kelly. Id argue Kelly is currently very underpriced and Shapiro very overpriced
TheOneB
2 months ago
only issue with him honestly is that he has been pretty invisible in the media in the last week
SomeDude69
2 months ago
Honestly she should pick Kelly he is super strong when it comes to immigration which is Trumps main talking point.
TheOneB
2 months ago
lets gooo
n/a
2 months ago
kelly rises from the dead
TheOneB
2 months ago
https://x.com/tylerpager/status/1819895221561254097
TheOneB
2 months ago
Mark Kelly just got confirmation for the screening interview
TheOneB
2 months ago
Mark Kelly just got confirmation for the screening interview
TheOneB
2 months ago
why is Trump scared to talk on ABC?
ncfom
2 months ago
And? Couldnt GAF about any of them, but why are you scared to talk in front of your opposition, nonetheless an audience at all?
TheOneB
2 months ago
things can't change. the virtual roll call will have a official nominee. The convention is rrelevant at tha tpoint.
donnarum
2 months ago
Unless they cancel the convention, you will have to wait for the convention. Because things could still change. You don't change the expiration of a futures market only because the price is almost settled, you have to wait for delivery date.
TheOneB
2 months ago
since the Hannibal Lecter rules allow for simply "Hannibal" or "Lecter" said separately, this seems like a very easy bet
TheOneB
2 months ago
UAW endorsing Waltz, Shapiro sexual harassment lawsuit reaching mainstream news...it's not over Waltzbros
TheOneB
2 months ago
I'd say Trump probably wants to get rid of him at this point, but it's also probably way too late. Just the financial and political cost of having to get someone new, as well as scrapping all the available merch would be prohibitive.
TheOneB
2 months ago
https://tmgstudios.tv/supporters/posts/61259 not a yes quite yet but seems like it might be soon
TheOneB
2 months ago
i ain't deleting anything, it was a gamble and I lost, such is life lol
jjerry
2 months ago
lol where are all the deleted comments from the Obama no holders
TheOneB
2 months ago
im all in!
benfitzzz
2 months ago
yessirrrrrr run that no price up
TheOneB
2 months ago
for sure, but i'm convinced he's saving his endorsement for the DNC. It's just very good theatrics to announce it there
benfitzzz
2 months ago
but theres always a chance he endorses her tommorow bro!!!!!!!!
TheOneB
2 months ago
does the virtual roll call count in early August count as a "official nomination"? because if it does this seems a extremely safe bet on "No" for Obama