#110
Rank
267
Comments
128
Likes Received
1
Likes Given
Arizona Senate Election Winner
TheOneB
8 months ago
buddy you think you can't count votes after election day which is hilarious
0
biggamefish
8 months ago
If you think the 6-3 SC, Trump or the R Senate & House is going to let this slide you are mistaken haha
Arizona Senate Election Winner
TheOneB
8 months ago
buddy pls google "election law"
0
biggamefish
8 months ago
Arizona's Pima and Yuma counties appear to have added 22,816 votes following Election Day. A US appeals court just ruled that counting ballots AFTER the election is ILLEGAL.
What will Trump say during New York rally?
TheOneB
9 months ago
you're never, ever, in your entire life, ever getting trump to say crypto or bitcoin unless it's a event directly related to it.
0
n/a
9 months ago
I really need this win lmao
What will Kamala say during Wisconsin rally?
TheOneB
9 months ago
jd vance hasnt been mentioned in the last 10 speeches
0
DrJackAttack
9 months ago
JD Vance is a lock. She copy and pastes every speech.
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
TheOneB
9 months ago
Funniest market ive ever seen
1
Fact Check: Suspect registered D or R?
TheOneB
9 months ago
meaningless, literally millions of republicans vote in democrat primaries
0
RobGCX
9 months ago
Voted in the Democratic primary on 3/5/24
What will Trump say during Arizona rally?
TheOneB
9 months ago
he's never, ever going to say crypto
0
BibiNetanCocksucker
9 months ago
lets eat boys hes gonna say crypto
Favorite to win on Polymarket week after debate?
TheOneB
9 months ago
hey buddy why did you sell your trump shares at 45 then
1
JohnathanDoe
10 months ago
THEY LET ME BUY TRUMP AT 50% LMFAO
Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?
TheOneB
9 months ago
this dude thinks order books mean anything lmao
5
mr.ozi
9 months ago
Kamala's order book looks worse and worse, rather than better and better. I bought some Trump again :)
What will Kamala and Trump both say at the debate?
TheOneB
10 months ago
should have put this market up yesterday, way too late now
10
·
Liked by SusanWarre..., MrNFT and 8 others
What will Kamala say at the debate?
TheOneB
10 months ago
She mentioned in her first interview as well.
0
skenez
10 months ago
Kamala only mentioned Palestine/ Palestinians At the DNC. She hasn’t mentioned it in any other forum, and it’s likely a debate issue that will divide Jewish voters at the wider debate. Touchy and more likely referred to as the situation in Gaza.
Highest grossing movie in 2024?
TheOneB
10 months ago
the fact that it's a musical will quickly cut its legs. Might have a strong opening, but zero shot it will be anywhere near deadpool lol
0
BrandonThought
10 months ago
everyone is massively underestimating Joker 2
Highest grossing movie in 2024?
TheOneB
10 months ago
nice try at pumping up joker's 2 price
0
BrandonThought
10 months ago
everyone is massively underestimating Joker 2
Will Trump debate Kamala on Sept 10?
TheOneB
10 months ago
buy more buddy, if you make the YES shares go down to 96c i will go all in :)
0
CansGonzalez
10 months ago
Just bought more. Kamala's debate staff just tested positive for Covid. Told ya! It's coming :)
Will Trump debate Kamala on Sept 10?
TheOneB
10 months ago
enjoy losing all your money
0
CansGonzalez
10 months ago
Just bought more. Kamala's debate staff just tested positive for Covid. Told ya! It's coming :)
Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?
TheOneB
10 months ago
don't say i didn't warn yall lmao
0
Who will gain more in polls after the debate?
TheOneB
10 months ago
538 makes this a easy kamala win
1
How many viewers will the debate get?
TheOneB
10 months ago
each of the convention did over 55 million on the final day during the candidate speech, so this feels like a very safe bet on+75m
0
Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?
TheOneB
10 months ago
total market size for this doubled in a few hours, i wonder why :)
0
Iran military response by Friday?
TheOneB
10 months ago
Nothing ever happens
1
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
unless someone forgets to propose a resolution today, it's absolutely over
0
wyn
10 months ago
Its not over though
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
RIP freddi -$292,767.34
2
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
RCP has updated for the 31. As long as someone proposes a resolution right now, it's done.
0
wyn
10 months ago
Everyone selling trump and those that are thinking or currently own harris, this way closer than people think it is. If trump receives a +1 or better, this market would be tied. Additionally, there can very well be more than one more poll to come. In fact there can be 2 or 3 more since they can still print the 29th and 30th before they print the 31st.
Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Sept. 6?
TheOneB
10 months ago
Rasmussen starting their week with a +1 for Harris... if the next days mantain that trend she is going to jump a lot
1
Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?
TheOneB
10 months ago
yes , it happened last time and it will likely happen again
0
janchan
10 months ago
A lot of people saying this bet will be manipulated. How does that happen? Someone throwing money at Kamala stock for presidential winner? Did that happen before?
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
the entire section about holding AI companies criminally accountable was removed, what do you mean it didn't get weakened lmao
0
Justifax
10 months ago
https://www.kqed.org/news/12002254/california-bill-to-regulate-catastrophic-effects-of-ai-heads-to-newsoms-desk Even Wiener's buddy London Breed is against it.
Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?
TheOneB
10 months ago
can't wait to see the rug pull on trump share owners this friday
1
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
it will definitely pass, the bill got significantly weakened in its capacity thanks to lobbying by AI companies so there's no real danger to those companies anymore to let it go through
0
wyn
10 months ago
@Justifax Will California pass SB 1047 AI safety bill? I am curious to hear your reasoning as to why you dont think they will pass it as you are a fairly large no holder
Elon Musk # of tweets August 30-Sept 6?
TheOneB
10 months ago
he might get on his insane brazil rants and also spacex might get cleared for flight
0
Borgo
10 months ago
elon tweets past weeks count: 147, 103, 155, 85, 166, 86, and 172. Why so many betting on 180+? Like i get his pace is for 224 but it was really high in the start of last week too but still ended 174. Whats the reason he will break 180 this week?
US Open: Medvedev vs. Borges
TheOneB
10 months ago
i know medvedev is the favorite but 90/10 seems like crazy high odds imo
0
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
he bought Trump at a 68c average, he would still be several dozens of thousands of dollars in the red
0
diddy
10 months ago
This is not over! When a poll drops that gives bad points to Kamala to bring 30/8 to 1.6, it’s 50/50. One sweet poll is needed for Fredi to enjoy a long vacation on Bahamas
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
The data includes August 23, so it might increase the base day 0 numbers
0
Speculo
10 months ago
She is at +4 this doesn't change anything...
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
@Camel-OHarris doesn't need to. As soon as a poll gets counted for the 31, it means there is now data for the 31 and it gets resolved then.
0
MrNFT
10 months ago
Rasmussen polls that closed today 8/31 will be among the last batch by RCP after the weekend. Trump is up nicely in them! EZ LOCK
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
Rasmussen polls are 4 days. This market closes as soon as a single poll gets counted for the 31. Rasmussen probably won't be it
1
MrNFT
10 months ago
Rasmussen polls that closed today 8/31 will be among the last batch by RCP after the weekend. Trump is up nicely in them! EZ LOCK
Will Brazil unban X before October?
TheOneB
10 months ago
Elon Musk has no issues restricting freedom of speech, he bans every single person Modi from India tells him to.
3
Miutea
10 months ago
This has a terribly negative impact. Is this an attempt to restrict freedom of speech?
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
It resolves when data for August 31 appears on RCP. That will take until monday at a minimum
2
BedardiRaja
10 months ago
it's august 31. shouldn't this get resolved already?
Will Brazil unban X before October?
TheOneB
10 months ago
this is 30 days tho
7
ElonMuskin
10 months ago
8% of X users are brazilians. All Elon needs to do is appoint someone in Brazil. He will do it with a lot of laywers. The chance of X staying off in Brazil for over 60 days is really low.
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
they get added to 8/30 numbers if the poll was conducted during that day
0
jl3128776
10 months ago
Note that we haven’t gotten RCP-included polls ending today. In this case, when the batch including 8/31 and beyond does get included eventually, that will trigger the market to go into review. And given that any polls ending 8/31 are only added to the 8/31 and not the 8/30 numbers, 8/30 will remain identical to right now. And that’s 1.8.
What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?
TheOneB
10 months ago
bro machine gunned those borders out goddamn
0
X banned in Brazil by Friday?
TheOneB
10 months ago
the law of the land is that Anatel is the one that actually puts the ban in effect. The ban is no in effect yet.
0
Justifax
10 months ago
"officially barrred".. the official statement has been made. the actually technical implementation is just a matter of execution. the law of the land is what's important.
X banned in Brazil by Friday?
TheOneB
10 months ago
from the rules ""Banned" is defined as Brazilian citizens are officially barred from downloading and/or viewing X/Twitter, and/or posting on X/Twitter."
1
Justifax
10 months ago
it's banned. the implementation of the ban is not relevant, what's important is it happened.
X banned in Brazil by Friday?
TheOneB
10 months ago
i wouldn't bet on yes or no at this point. Judge has sent notification to ban but the national ban might take up to 24 hours to enact.
0
X banned in Brazil by Friday?
TheOneB
10 months ago
https://g1.globo.com/politica/noticia/2024/08/30/moraes-suspende-o-x-no-brasil-apos-rede-nao-designar-um-representante-legal-no-pais.ghtml?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=g1 ban has been signed and sent to the national communications agency. the national communications agency has up to 24 hours to put the ban in effect.
0
What will Kamala say during CNN interview?
TheOneB
10 months ago
@Tories4Harris the extras are literally part of the interview my guy. The entire interview has not been released.
0
semi
10 months ago
free money for no on abortion
X banned in Brazil before October?
TheOneB
10 months ago
elon should have deleted the illegal posts made by criminals. he didn't, he's getting the consequences. Elon complies with dictators all over the world and bans and deletes speech at the request of governments all the time. Go check what he does for India's Modi on a regular basis
1
eb..
10 months ago
I am sorry for all the millions of people whose jobs are related to twitter. journalists. social media content creators like me too. just like that, one fanatic guy, the judge, tries to delete an entire social media platform. i really hope that elon musk can find a way to bypass this. twitter cannot go down. and they are projecting, they say that the billionaries or ceos are arrogant. but these judges in brazil are really the most arrogant people I have seen
What will Kamala say during CNN interview?
TheOneB
10 months ago
no evidence that this interview has aired in it's entirety. they might have additional clips and cut out parts to release
0
semi
10 months ago
free money for no on abortion
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
what a wild ride
1
Elon Musk # of tweets August 23-30?
TheOneB
10 months ago
what a crazy comeback for 150
0
How long will Harris/Walz interview be?
TheOneB
10 months ago
people who bought under 30 minutes for 80 cents...bruh the entire source for the claim is a random twitter blue maga dumbass
2
X banned in Brazil by Friday?
TheOneB
10 months ago
I agree. As far I understand from the Brazilian justice system, banning twitter would need to be a separate judicial act, separate from the consequences of this case.
1
Car
10 months ago
Seems like there is not enough time
X banned in Brazil by Friday?
TheOneB
10 months ago
he complies with the Indian government all the time to censor Modi's politicla opponents though
0
NIGGA
10 months ago
Musk has made strong statements about his resistance to censorship and his commitment to free speech -- complying with Brazil now would appear cowardly.
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
Rules state that market only ends when there is that for the 31. So it might not get resolved until monday
0
jl3128776
10 months ago
Let’s take a real tally of which polls could be added between now and end of tomorrow
What will Kamala say during CNN interview?
TheOneB
10 months ago
that's probably Walz's line, not Kamala's
2
brokeidiot
10 months ago
weird is free money
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
yeah, it resolves at 50/50 if there is no change an Fredi bought his at over 60 average
0
Eyebrows
10 months ago
The funny thing is, even if it stays at its current level, Fredi will still lose a lot of money.
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
last Quinniac poll was last month so it was not being counted
0
EdgyUsername
10 months ago
I don't understand. She is up by 3 points from the last Quinnipiac poll.
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
@Champ we might get a Fox News poll, but all signs point to Kamala getting a bump there as well
0
Plutos
10 months ago
Day 0 = 0 (1,6) Day 5 = +0,2 (1,8) - Currently Harris is winning, but there is still time to neglect this +0,2
Trump vs. Harris RCP polling margin on Aug 30?
TheOneB
10 months ago
mathematically impossible at this point
0
BayAreaVibes
10 months ago
Is it impossible for Trump to take the lead? That's too pessimistic, isn't it?
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
RIP Freddi's wallet
4
Trump vs. Harris RCP polling margin on Aug 30?
TheOneB
10 months ago
some good polls are coming out, should be added to RCP shortly
0
432
10 months ago
was there anz update_
Trump vs. Harris RCP polling margin on Aug 30?
TheOneB
10 months ago
how did you do that lmao
0
MalikNabers
10 months ago
Oh shit I was looking at Trump Biden!!! I’m fucked
Trump vs. Harris RCP polling margin on Aug 30?
TheOneB
10 months ago
USA Today hasn't been added yet, nor Reuters. There will probably be a bump from Fox and Rasmussen as well
0
MalikNabers
10 months ago
Deciding whether to say something or let you geniuses figure it out yourselves
Trump vs. Harris RCP polling margin on Aug 30?
TheOneB
10 months ago
+4 Reuters, +5 USA Today, likely to gain a point from the previous Rasmussen poll and looking to potentially tie or be up a point on Fox News poll... the +2.5 dream is real
3
RFK Jr. popular vote share?
TheOneB
10 months ago
with him failing to withdraw in half of the swing states, i think over %1 is actually a possibility.
0
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
@sosuke yes, it was days ago, but it still affects the market because it's a significant amount of the total shares of this market
0
n/a
10 months ago
Why is the share price still only at 75c with all the information pointing to the fact that Kamala can’t virtually lose this market?
Elon Musk # of tweets August 23-30?
TheOneB
10 months ago
to be fair this was entirely due to SpaceX failure
0
Slaylorswift
10 months ago
lol tried to warn people
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
Fox News might give her a bump as well since she has gotten a bump on their battleground states poll
0
diddy
10 months ago
Morning Consult gives higher points to Trump than Biden, historically, contrary to USA Today. Morning Consult is at +4 Kamala. USA Today may as well give her +5, I think this may be an unexpected shocker
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
check the top holders. one single guy is holding over 400k shares of Trump, bringing Kamala price down
0
n/a
10 months ago
Why is the share price still only at 75c with all the information pointing to the fact that Kamala can’t virtually lose this market?
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
https://x.com/umichvoter/status/1828915899446755697 Fox News battlegrounds polls show improvement for Kamala. Bodes well for the Fox News national poll in favor of Kamala if they publish it before end of market.
0
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
as long as it's +1 for Kamala on their poll it will improve Kamala's average since this will be their first Kamala poll
0
n/a
10 months ago
Good or bad for kamala?
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
RCP gets updated when a poll in their list of pollsters releases a finished poll. Rasmussen polls people for 4 days and then average the results from those 4 days. With the current results, that means +2 Trump with the current results (was +3 Trump last week). There's one day left so things might change, but he would need a significant jump to change the average of the rasmussen poll. The absolute worst for Kamala i can see happening here would be it staying +3 Trump here, which would still result in a win for Kamala in this market due to the yahoo poll.
2
432
10 months ago
What a nonsense people write here.Diffrence was on August 23 1.6 points today its 1.7 points so a lousy 0.1 point
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
oh, so you don't understand how RCP polling average works. Once this week's Rasmussen's poll hits, the one from last week ceases to exist for the RCP average calculation!
0
432
10 months ago
What a nonsense people write here.Diffrence was on August 23 1.6 points today its 1.7 points so a lousy 0.1 point
Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?
TheOneB
10 months ago
more market manipulation markers, i love it
2
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
there was no Rasmussen polling on the 23rd so i'm not sure what you're talking about. last rasmussen combined polling was Kamala 46 Trump 49. She is so far averaging 47 this week.
0
432
10 months ago
What a nonsense people write here.Diffrence was on August 23 1.6 points today its 1.7 points so a lousy 0.1 point
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
i like how he can't tell that Kamala in Rasmussen in 8/15 - 8/21 period literally had a day with 42 which massively pulled her down. her average is consistently higher
1
diddy
10 months ago
432 you clearly don’t understand what you’re talking about
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
...she was 3 points down last week buddy
1
432
10 months ago
What a nonsense people write here.Diffrence was on August 23 1.6 points today its 1.7 points so a lousy 0.1 point
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
you might want to re-read those numbers my friend. Trump is +2 for this week (this might change tomorrow but he would need a pretty big difference to change the average out for rasmussen)
0
432
10 months ago
What a nonsense people write here.Diffrence was on August 23 1.6 points today its 1.7 points so a lousy 0.1 point
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
you seem a bit confused, the guy who does the polls is showing the stats for each day. Trump is +2 on their poll right now. He was +3 on their last poll, which gets erased from the average tomorrow :)
1
432
10 months ago
What a nonsense people write here.Diffrence was on August 23 1.6 points today its 1.7 points so a lousy 0.1 point
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
it's looking very likely that Kamala has gotten higher in Rassmussen poll, so... :)
1
432
10 months ago
What a nonsense people write here.Diffrence was on August 23 1.6 points today its 1.7 points so a lousy 0.1 point
Trump vs. Harris RCP polling margin on Aug 30?
TheOneB
10 months ago
Mathematically impossible
0
0x23D185eB0ae8Fc4ad8131b6f662153037223d302-1724753956851
10 months ago
Trump lead
Kamala positive favorability by Friday?
TheOneB
10 months ago
Lots of time until end of market and she has been trending positively in most recent polls. Even conservative pollsters like Kaplan and Echelon have her reaching positive favorability in recent polls
0
What will Trump say during Wisconsin town hall?
TheOneB
10 months ago
I think town halls tend to be a lot shorter than his rallies no? I dont doubt he will say it a handful but i think there might not be time for 25
2
LMNOP
10 months ago
He said Border 59 times in his speech in AZ five days ago. Agreed it seems unlikely here but it's definitely in contention.
What will Trump say during Wisconsin town hall?
TheOneB
10 months ago
Border 25 times seems like a easy no
1
Elon Musk # of tweets August 23-30?
TheOneB
10 months ago
103. X tracker still has him at a pace to hit 153 posts.
0
Xyron26
10 months ago
how much now
What will Kamala say during CNN interview?
TheOneB
10 months ago
since it's a joint interview with waltz, can we get a market that encompasses both?
7
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
RCP has it as 1.6 on day 0, not 1.7
1
PolyPollUser
10 months ago
But but DNC bounce??? bruh, convention bounce used to take place because it resparked momentum in a candidate. There is no resparkling on someone appointed a month ago
Trump vs. Harris RCP polling margin on Aug 30?
TheOneB
10 months ago
you mean 1.7
2
SkillzThatKillz
10 months ago
The Yahoo/YouGov poll released a few minutes ago will bring this to 1.40 once RCP updates. https://x.com/iapolls2022/status/1828553147586846854?s=46
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
Updated to +1.7. If Rassmussen stays +3 tomorrow.. its gg folks, Kamala wins
4
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
Buddy she just bounced to 1.7
1
PolyPollUser
10 months ago
But but DNC bounce??? bruh, convention bounce used to take place because it resparked momentum in a candidate. There is no resparkling on someone appointed a month ago
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
Rasmussen tomorrow is the only one with a sure date. We are bound to get some CNN, CBS, Ipsos, Harvard-Harris and CBS before the end of the market, but no guarantees
2
scattering
10 months ago
When can we expect the polls
Will Kamala Harris give an interview by Aug 31?
TheOneB
10 months ago
how do you feel now?
2
n/a
10 months ago
No shot
Elon Musk # of tweets August 23-30?
TheOneB
10 months ago
7 hours to go to the spacex launch yeah? unless i got my timezones mixed up
0
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
I believe last time they had battleground estimates Biden was still in the race
0
EdgyUsername
10 months ago
How does it compare to their previous poll?
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/1828532259219218628 it's the calculated diferential
0
L114
10 months ago
don't see +5 anywhere on there
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/2024-harris-trump-polling-michigan-wisconsin-arizona-nevada-north-carolina/ Kamala +5 on a battleground states poll. Bodes very well for a big Kamala jump in CBS nationwide poll
1
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
that makes no sense, if anything a lot of those pollsters have missed big Kamala swings that will reflect now.
0
Justifax
10 months ago
Ras +4 or +5? I think +5 has a pretty good chance. Harvard Harris will be big at +4. CNN? Probably +1 Trump or event. Was in june and july. Maybe yahoo not sure what they will do.
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
Rasmussen are very consistent and will have one tomorrow. Others have no certain dates to them, but there's a lot of pollsters that will want to have updated numbers after the DNC and RFK drop out within the market's timeline
0
n/a
10 months ago
When are new poll results supposed to come out for this?
Trump vs. Harris RCP polling margin on Aug 30?
TheOneB
10 months ago
It's pretty much a given. This is a perfect week to run updated polls due to the DNC and RFK dropping out
0
diddy
10 months ago
So it is an assumption that there will be some random polls in the next 3 days and that they will give a good boost to Kamala, not persuasive enough
Trump vs. Harris RCP polling margin on Aug 30?
TheOneB
10 months ago
Only the last poll by each polling company counts for the average. This means there's over 10 pollsters which haven't updated since the beginning of the month that can give a Kamala bump regardless of DNC bump
0
SkillzThatKillz
10 months ago
Why would the oldest polls drop out by Aug 30? They won’t be a month old
What will JD Vance say during Michigan rally?
TheOneB
10 months ago
no, but has said China three times now.
1
RB-79K_BALL
10 months ago
does chinese count?
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
If you look at Rasmussen's history, Harris has been constantly gaining ground. Trump was +5 at the beggining of the month, then +4, then +3 in the most recent one. Wouldn't surprise me if their polls doesn't change this week either.
2
Eridpnc
10 months ago
So, which poll will balance out Rasmussen’s trump +25?
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
Lots of RCP pollsters have not released new polls since the beggining of the month. Big potential of Kamala bumps from them, regardless of DNC bump
1
Justifax
10 months ago
I agree Harris has the advantage with the DNC bounce, but this should be priced around 65 or so.
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
Last ABC poll was on the 13, pretty likely they do one for the end of the month
1
diddy
10 months ago
We have Rasmussen dropping on 28th. ABC & CBS would both likely give Kamala a lead but they won’t drop during this timeframe, anyone got other ideas which other RCP poll may drop?
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
so... you and Freddi? :)
0
PolyPollUser
10 months ago
Trump holders, WE ARE GONNA WIN SO MUCH, YOU MIGHT EVEN GET TIRED OF WINNING!
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
honestly, all you gotta do is check RCP's pollsters and see how many of them have their latest poll done before 11 of August. A Kamala bump is basically guaranteed.
1
diddy
10 months ago
Baseline was already 1.5, that was the latest average before 23 Aug. it is 50%50 as of now, Kamala needs lead
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
RCP has updated for August 23, baseline is confirmed to be +1.5. Easy win here :)
1
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
Morning Consult is the only pollster counted by RCP releasing a poll today. Their last poll was +4 Harris
1
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
i'm saying it's a additional +1 in the polling average my guy. That would put her at +2.5 total. if RCP's included conservative pollsters have the same result as Echelon lmao
0
PolyPollUser
10 months ago
Y'all really decided to dump this down to 20% based on a blog post without even having access to final Day 0's data 🤣🤣
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
please go to the RCP page and see their conservative pollsters. Now imagine they all get the same exact results as Echelon this week... that would be a bump of +1 to Kamala my guy lmao
0
PolyPollUser
10 months ago
Y'all really decided to dump this down to 20% based on a blog post without even having access to final Day 0's data 🤣🤣
Iran military response by Friday?
TheOneB
10 months ago
nothing ever happens
3
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
buddy, that's one single poll. By a conservative pollster. By a pollster that isn't counted in the RCP polling average lmao
1
PolyPollUser
10 months ago
Y'all really decided to dump this down to 20% based on a blog post without even having access to final Day 0's data 🤣🤣
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
Kaplan Strategies , a right wing pollster just published a Kamala +7 poll lmao (doesn't affect RCP's average, but still)
2
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
you should buy more buddy
0
PolyPollUser
10 months ago
Y'all really decided to dump this down to 20% based on a blog post without even having access to final Day 0's data 🤣🤣
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
some folks saw a couple of polls where Trump is winning, but they did no actual research about the polls . all of the polls in question had trump polling better on their last iteration, so it's actually a Harris bump in the average lmao
1
n/a
10 months ago
Why are people panic selling Harris... Am I missing something?
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
They dont update shit during the weekends. Maybe later today
0
L114
10 months ago
Why is RCP so slow to update? the latest is still 22nd, so theres still no baseline
Which party wins Presidency + Popular Vote?
TheOneB
10 months ago
do some math and buy both R Presidency D Pop vote and D Presidency and D Pop Vote, it's basically a guaranteed 30% or so profit
1
resemble
10 months ago
help me choose
Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?
TheOneB
10 months ago
with him staying on the ballot in the vast majority of states and with the DNC bump from a day before he dropped out, i believe he will have minimal influence in the polls in the short term (that market is only for the first 7 days after he drops out) Trump will possibly get a significant bump later though as RFK continues to campaign with him and whatnot.
0
bko
10 months ago
With the comments RFK made about the democrats on Friday, I'm not sure I agree with your bet Harris gaining though. I like the hedge plan though.
Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?
TheOneB
10 months ago
I'm a "no" buyer but i don't think "no" will actually win. Just a backup plan in case it does win and it fucks up my "If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?" market lol
2
Elon Musk # of tweets August 23-30?
TheOneB
10 months ago
yep. and with a major Space X event starting on the 27
0
DoughJones
10 months ago
75. Elon's up and running
Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?
TheOneB
10 months ago
there's two other RFK drop out markets that are now fully resolved. It wouldn't make any sense for the decision to be different here.
1
Elon Musk # of tweets August 23-30?
TheOneB
10 months ago
spacex space walk event makes it practically certain. he will retweet and quote many videos from that event
1
Fordupo
10 months ago
Now let's pray that he keeps this pace
Elon Musk # of tweets August 23-30?
TheOneB
10 months ago
Almost halfway to 150 with 5 days to go...its over
2
Elon Musk # of tweets August 23-30?
TheOneB
10 months ago
man's yapping like crazy, 65 tweets already and over 5 days to go
0
PunishedCK
10 months ago
Doug he’s gonna blow past 150 by tomorrow at this pace wtf
Elon Musk # of tweets August 23-30?
TheOneB
10 months ago
Currently on pace to 187 lmao
0
Elon Musk # of tweets August 23-30?
TheOneB
10 months ago
Very strong pace in the first days and SpaceX's Polaris Dawn mission make +150 a bargain imo
0
Elon Musk # of tweets August 23-30?
TheOneB
10 months ago
Check the rules, there's a tracker there
0
jolanvnloo
10 months ago
where do i track? is there a site
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
My browser bookmark for Polymarket is Freddi's profile page in case he does something like this again lol
4
Eyebrows
10 months ago
I was distracted the day this market came out and I'm kicking myself for it so hard. So much free money : (
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
market is finally correcting to what it should have been ages ago. One single guy holds over 98% of all Trump shares lol
2
EdgyUsername
10 months ago
What is going on?
JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee?
TheOneB
10 months ago
oh i absolutely agree with you. Especially for this particular market, since it's ending in August 31. Even if RFK replacing Vance happened, zero chance it's within the next 6 days.
0
AccountNames
10 months ago
What's the cause of this pump?
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
pls come back freddi Kamala shares are getting expensive
7
Trump flips Kamala on Nate Silver's Bulletin?
TheOneB
10 months ago
absolutely zero chance of a flip by August 31
4
JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee?
TheOneB
10 months ago
some folks started flying around rumours of RFK replacing Vance
0
AccountNames
10 months ago
What's the cause of this pump?
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
like, there's a reason there's literally nobody buying Trump shares but one single guy
0
Gerdii
10 months ago
Bro your model literally says Trump up 1.1 Harris up .8
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
please read the entire thing "And second, we’re seeing the beginnings of a convention bounce for Harris. Even with the Kennedy change, She’s now ahead by 4.0 points in the national polling average versus 2.3 points when the DNC started. Our best guess is that her lead will increase further, especially given that almost none of the polling was done after her strong acceptance speech on Thursday."
3
Gerdii
10 months ago
Bro your model literally says Trump up 1.1 Harris up .8
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
it would be at 95% if it wasn't for Freddi, to be fair
1
diddy
10 months ago
Nevertheless this looks like free money after a deep analysis tbh…whichever way, Kamala should win, I am surprised this isn’t at 90% by now
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
it's so insane one has to wonder if Fredi is planning a Ocean's Eleven style heist on RCP's headquarters
2
GenericUser1234
10 months ago
I dont think i’ve ever seen such a lopsided market. Fredi is like 99% of the No market. If the polls dont go his way in the coming days, he won’t even be able to sell. It’ll move to 90+ Yes relatively quickly and stay there. Such a crazy risky bet on his part
Trump vs. Harris RCP polling margin on Aug 30?
TheOneB
10 months ago
i mean, it doesn't need to be long lasting. it's one week
0
diddy
10 months ago
RFK happened, and the DNC bounce isn’t long-lasting, this is largely ambiguous until we see if bounce is even real
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
I hope he comes back i want more Kamala 45$ shares :(
1
diddy
10 months ago
Why isn’t Fredi pumping this market anymore, he did $150k in the last 24hrs on presidential bid
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
yeah, there is real chance that for example Kamala recedes to 1.4 in this week, which would resolve as a win on Trump. But it won't be because of RFK, which will have a minimal , maybe outright non existant effect. 7 days is just too little time. And even if you believe the distribution on the poll above.... those are only 7 states. RCP is a nationwide average.
0
DevinF
10 months ago
But look at the rules here. It just just looking at polling average in general after RFK drops out so it is not directly attributed. To much noise with the DNC happening now too to assume Trump will gain in the average. This bet is a coin toss so maybe trump still the play.
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
just found what he is talking about, which is extremely funny and made by the Trump team https://x.com/MediumBuying/status/1827069435397730529
1
diddy
10 months ago
I have searched on interactive polling, and I only see polls favoring Kamala. To what are you referring to exactly?
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
Also, please check the top holders for each side. Trump chances are being entirely held up by a whale who is 200k in the red. If you took away his shares this would be a 90/10 market in favor of Kamala
0
0x979ed008e1128B4580333b9E672b33c51bB0c2a2-1723397206012
10 months ago
You guys do know that there was already a poll showing 68% going to Trump and 20% going to Harris?
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
Twitter polls are not real polls. This is about the RCP polling average in the 7 days after RFK dropping out. In addition, RFK will still be a option in the polls in 90% of states, so the RFK effect will be minimal
1
0x979ed008e1128B4580333b9E672b33c51bB0c2a2-1723397206012
10 months ago
You guys do know that there was already a poll showing 68% going to Trump and 20% going to Harris?
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
Thank you Freddi for all the liquidity
1
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
anything later than today would be completely absurd when every RFK drop out market is closing now
2
Justifax
10 months ago
Freddi, and friends of freddi, you should go on the discord and get them to use the #s as of right now. Some people are very weirdly trying to argue later numbers.
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
good observation, but sadly there's lack of liquidity in that market
2
diddy
10 months ago
I’ll give you a nice tip guys, go bet on 1-1.4 polling on Harris while it’s cheap. Figure out the math, she has averaged 1.5 this week, if she performs better then she this market on Kamala wins, if she loses, 1-1.4 market on Kamala polling will win. It’s a win-win at approx 60-65% bet, 35-40% profit
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
every "drop out" market is now at 99%. betting on Kamala is a fantastic deal now. Not only is a week not enough for the polls to be impact, RFK will also be on the polls in the states he didn't drop out of, diminishing his impact.
2
RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?
TheOneB
10 months ago
Yeah, people who bought Yes on Bernie endorsing Kamala before the convention got burned lol
0
Bank.
10 months ago
Endorsements are a form of support, not all expressions of support are formal endorsements.
Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?
TheOneB
10 months ago
Until the end of friday in ET time
0
Edemil
10 months ago
how much time left?
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
If this counts as dropping out, the fact that he remains on the ballot in most states means that the influence this will have on polls will be less than expected
0
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
Yeah i wonder how this will be handled. We might need someone to propose a resolution
0
GenericUser1234
10 months ago
If Polymarket/UMA ends up deciding on that today counts as RFK dropping out, we need to know for sure what day counts as "day 0" for the timeline kickoff, otherwise we'll be blind trading without being able to track what is what
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
Imo if you drop out of enough states that even if 100% of the remaining states voting for you wouldnt land you a electoral college victory you should be considere to be dropped out
0
GenericUser1234
10 months ago
This market (https://polymarket.com/event/will-rfk-jr-drop-out-by-aug-23?tid=1724440532272) is behaving as if RFK suspending will not count as "Dropping out". if that is confirmed here as well, then the market will settle 50/50
What will RFK Jr. say during Friday address?
TheOneB
10 months ago
"i believe i would win the election" lmao
2
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
*100k in the red
0
TheOneB
10 months ago
Fredi9999 is wild, 50k in the red and singlehandedly holding 90% of Trump shares
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
Fredi9999 is wild, 50k in the red and singlehandedly holding 90% of Trump shares
0
RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?
TheOneB
10 months ago
he will endorse Trump, but there's no reason for him to say that at the friday address instead of Trump's rally a few hours later
0
Paganheat
10 months ago
Insane how low Yes is right now when all major new sources are predicting he’s gonna endorse Trump. Lots of market manipulators in these comments
Will Trump admit 'Operation Warp Speed' was his fault?
TheOneB
10 months ago
RFK's VP pick says they "probably" wouldn't endorse Trump if he didn't admit it. But honestly seems like a bluff on her part, i think they are going to endorse Trump regardless.
0
GreedyMacFear
10 months ago
"Has he ever admitted to any of his failures (multiple bankruptcies, failed election, etc.)? It seems he is more of a 'blame others, no honor' kind of guy."
Trump vs. Harris RCP polling margin on Aug 30?
TheOneB
10 months ago
why don't you bet on Trump then? with a simple 100$ bet you could win 2100$ ! do it!
2
Scrounge
10 months ago
Any bet on Harris is a loss 😆 I've got an idea, instead of waisting your money on anything Harris, just give it to me 😆
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
that might very well be true in the long term, but this ridiculous market is about the 7 days after he drops out, and RCP takes their time adding polls to their average.
0
LMNOP
10 months ago
Trump's got a ton of RFK votes to pick up here. I don't see any good news here for Harris. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/
What will RFK Jr. say during Friday address?
TheOneB
10 months ago
is there no market for Trump's rally?
1
Trump vs. Harris RCP polling margin on Aug 30?
TheOneB
10 months ago
why don't you bet then?
4
SofaKingWittArdid
10 months ago
Trump yes is cheap at 7. Fair price right now is 80.
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
7 days is just not enough for polls to adjust, crazy market imo
0
Justifax
10 months ago
Of course, are we really betting on whether or not RCP decides to put its finger on the scales temporarily to show a loss of momentum after the DNC / bump from RFK?
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
this is the stupidest market i've ever seen, polls take time to conduct and release, the likelihood of RFK dropping out being seen in the first week after dropping out is practically non existent! That's not to say that a Trump bet can't win since he could get a unrelated rebound, but it will have nothing to do with RFK
1
0xfB11DFb23D43c3F25aB37bEcc16af43903dd15eE-1721763905746
10 months ago
Is 1 week even long enough for new polls to come in with the context if RFK dropping out?
If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?
TheOneB
10 months ago
might wanna look at the rules lil buddy
9
·
Liked by Slaylorswi..., aaron28a and 7 others
KamalaLost
10 months ago
anyone vetting for kamala unironically when its obv most rfk supporters were previous trump fans will lose all their money 🤣🤣🤣
What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?
TheOneB
10 months ago
Why was mcdonalds an option i was so confused when it was added
0
Cheekycheekymonky
10 months ago
Lost every single bet
What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?
TheOneB
10 months ago
So happy right now
0
SenecaTheYounger
10 months ago
WE DID IT CEASEFIRE BROS
What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?
TheOneB
10 months ago
Lets goooo ceasefire bros
8
What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?
TheOneB
10 months ago
Bill Clinton with the ceasefire talk as well
2
What will Trump say during Wednesday speech?
TheOneB
10 months ago
tampon bros losing for the first time?
1
What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?
TheOneB
10 months ago
Biden, AOC and Bernie Sanders speeches all talked about ceasefire.
3
Who will speak at the DNC?
TheOneB
10 months ago
why is Mark Cuban still at 15%?
1
What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?
TheOneB
10 months ago
to be fair you're betting on unburdened, a word she hasn't said in like 4 years
3
IONLYBETONX
10 months ago
do i trust someone whos 12k in the hole? hm
What will Tim Walz say during DNC speech?
TheOneB
10 months ago
he basically started the "weird" thing
0
homosexual
10 months ago
Does Walz say "weird" a lot?
What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?
TheOneB
10 months ago
ceasefire is a given. protests are getting a lot of attention so she will at least pretend to care
4
What will Kamala say during DNC acceptance speech?
TheOneB
10 months ago
she has said it in most of her rallies
1
CAPNCOOK
10 months ago
Hillary said abortion in her speech, this tells me they won't be shying away from the word this week.
Trump vs. Harris RCP polling margin on Aug 23?
TheOneB
10 months ago
the thing is that the RCP polling average I believe is adjusted for the last 28 days. So there are a lot of very Trump leaning polls from before Biden dropped out about to expire
0
Agathocles
10 months ago
Last time it was Harris by 1. I wonder if people think she'll be in the 1.5-1.9 range because of the DNC? I don't think Trump had much of a boost at all from the RNC, but maybe people think that the DNC will be better produced, and let Kamala go back to her vibes-over-substance strategy. That may be what she needs after her chances have peaked here lately, in response to her coming forward with a half-baked economic policy proposal that threatens the monetary interests of some media owners. .5-.9 seems totally possible and undervalued. 1-1.4 is safe based on current info and last result. No on 1.5-1.9 is undervalued IMO
Trump vs. Harris RCP polling margin on Aug 23?
TheOneB
10 months ago
It's 1.4 right now. with over three full days left for this to end i think it's certain it will reach 1.5
1
Agathocles
10 months ago
Last time it was Harris by 1. I wonder if people think she'll be in the 1.5-1.9 range because of the DNC? I don't think Trump had much of a boost at all from the RNC, but maybe people think that the DNC will be better produced, and let Kamala go back to her vibes-over-substance strategy. That may be what she needs after her chances have peaked here lately, in response to her coming forward with a half-baked economic policy proposal that threatens the monetary interests of some media owners. .5-.9 seems totally possible and undervalued. 1-1.4 is safe based on current info and last result. No on 1.5-1.9 is undervalued IMO
Which party wins Presidency + Popular Vote?
TheOneB
10 months ago
why is R Presidency, D Popular Vote so cheap? if you think Trump is going to win the election this seems like a bargain
3
What will Trump say during Saturday rally?
TheOneB
10 months ago
did he bring up Elon before taking questions at the last press conference?
0
What will Trump say during Thursday press conference?
TheOneB
10 months ago
it's a press conference, some journalist might ask about it
0
Eridpnc
10 months ago
Why are people buying lisp?
What will Trump say during Thursday press conference?
TheOneB
10 months ago
does trump even say "fake news" anymore?
0
What will Trump say during Thursday press conference?
TheOneB
10 months ago
i'm trying to pump it so i can get cheap nos buddy
0
🤺JustPunched
10 months ago
Moron. No offense.
What will Trump say during Thursday press conference?
TheOneB
10 months ago
Trump Jr has continously hinted at a Trump crypto currency. I could see it being announced here
1
Who will speak at the DNC?
TheOneB
10 months ago
she spoke on 2020
0
n/a
10 months ago
Do you think she will speak? Any source?
What will Trump say during Elon interview?
TheOneB
10 months ago
LMAO
1
What will Trump say during Elon interview?
TheOneB
10 months ago
he doesn't even know the name of the company
1
and
10 months ago
he's gonna say tesla
What will Trump say during Elon interview?
TheOneB
10 months ago
praising venezuela lmao
5
What will Trump say during Elon interview?
TheOneB
10 months ago
electric cars lmao
1
What will Trump say during Elon interview?
TheOneB
10 months ago
wrapping up
1
What will Trump say during Elon interview?
TheOneB
10 months ago
Compound words will count as long as "trans" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to sexual/gender identity which differs from ones sex at birth (i.e. "Transgender" counts).
1
jenkins
10 months ago
“bullet trans"
What will Trump say during Elon interview?
TheOneB
10 months ago
i should have bought tampons
2
What will Trump say during Elon interview?
TheOneB
10 months ago
"Everything is obsolete including your rockets" lmao
4
What will Trump say during Elon interview?
TheOneB
10 months ago
Mars gotta go to zero already, this man is not saying it
0
What will Trump say during Elon interview?
TheOneB
10 months ago
his MAGA was about Argentina, not America.
0
plant
10 months ago
why are people wanting to buy MAGA at 0.1c ??? 100,000 order
What will Trump say during Elon interview?
TheOneB
10 months ago
this man does not know the name of the cars
3
What will Trump say during Elon interview?
TheOneB
10 months ago
trump is a boomer who doesn't know understand about bitcoin
0
Lejer
10 months ago
do you think he will say bitcoin soon
What will Trump say during Elon interview?
TheOneB
10 months ago
never happening
1
Lejer
10 months ago
do you think he will say bitcoin soon
What will Trump say during Elon interview?
TheOneB
10 months ago
if the conversation goes to Walz i think it's a lock. but doesn't seem like it will go that way lmao
0
mrcrayon
10 months ago
why would yall bet on tampon lmao
What will Trump say during Elon interview?
TheOneB
10 months ago
trump doesnt give a single crap about crypto lmao
0
yuzogi
10 months ago
just talk about crypto while talking about inflation omfg bro
What will Trump say during Elon interview?
TheOneB
10 months ago
no it isn't. inflation slowed down slightly, which is very different. inflation is still getting worse every day
0
n/a
10 months ago
inflation is down according to statistics
What will Trump say during Elon interview?
TheOneB
10 months ago
"Compound words will count as long as "MAGA" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to making America great again (e.g. "MAGA-themed" counts). shouldn't count, the A stood for Argentina , not America
9
·
Liked by ArtVandala..., GoblinMilk and 7 others
What will Trump say during Elon interview?
TheOneB
10 months ago
does Trump not know that Elon's company is called Tesla or something this is so funny
3
What will Trump say during Elon interview?
TheOneB
10 months ago
"your product is incredible" and not even say " Tesla", this is so funny
4
What will Trump say during Elon interview?
TheOneB
10 months ago
yes, it's in the rules
0
TBK
10 months ago
does "make america great again" count as MAGA?
What will Trump say during Elon interview?
TheOneB
10 months ago
probably weird, which is a word that can be used in the middle of the conversation even without talking about the whole "they're calling me weird" thing
2
Lejer
10 months ago
what is undervalued right now
What will Trump say during Elon interview?
TheOneB
10 months ago
it's August 23, neither of them have stopped rambling. Trump still hasn't said Mars
0
betoor
10 months ago
til they talk themselves out
What will Trump say during Elon interview?
TheOneB
10 months ago
how is crypto and bitcoin still that high nobody is going to talk about crypto in this fucking thing lmao
2
What will Trump say during Elon interview?
TheOneB
10 months ago
elon bringing up illegal immigration and trump still not saying it lmao
0
What will Trump say during Elon interview?
TheOneB
10 months ago
at this stage i think only "weird" is a lock, and it won't even be used in the context expected lol
3
What will Trump say during Elon interview?
TheOneB
10 months ago
this is such a retarded conversation, RIP whoever bought yes mars
9
·
Liked by NeverForge..., SELL-YES-B... and 7 others
What will Trump say during Elon interview?
TheOneB
10 months ago
he said that "waltz is being into transgender"(and "transgender" counts as per the rules) and she called the algerian boxer trans in a recent rally
1
skrtttttttttt
10 months ago
i cant remember the last time trump has said "trans"
What will Trump say during Elon interview?
TheOneB
10 months ago
yes, the rules have it as a "No" win in that case
2
T.w
10 months ago
What happen on poly market if the talk is not happening? Does the no win it all?
What will Trump say during Elon interview?
TheOneB
10 months ago
apparently the interview with Logan Paul lasted one hour, so i assume it will be similar here
0
truetalent
10 months ago
0 chance they will get together to talk in a scheduled live event and it won't be at least 30-45 mins
What will Trump say during Elon interview?
TheOneB
11 months ago
is it a in person interview ?
1
Will Trump post on X again before election?
TheOneB
11 months ago
interview will be hosted on Trump's twitter account, this seems like a lock for yes https://x.com/XSpaces/status/1822813953942040585
4
What will Trump say during Elon interview?
TheOneB
11 months ago
does anybody know the rough estimate of the duration of the interview? feels like half of the words are pretty much a lock if it goes over 30 minutes
2
Trump vs. Harris RCP polling margin on Aug 16?
TheOneB
11 months ago
Kamala up by 0.5 right now. with trump lack of campaigning, i can see it widening to over 1 by august 16
0
Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?
TheOneB
11 months ago
volleyball looking like a no for the US
0
Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?
TheOneB
11 months ago
i'll admit that I panicked a bit. No worries though, learned my lesson lol
0
GoblinMilk
11 months ago
bro why did you sell at 75c when you bought at 94. US will pump a bit right before wrestling
Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?
TheOneB
11 months ago
yeah autocorrect messed me up lol
0
alyap
11 months ago
Basketball, not baseball
Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?
TheOneB
11 months ago
USA 38 medals, China 39. Both have one gold locked tomorrow (women's baseball, weighlifting). USA has three shots at a gold where they're not the favorites, but it only takes winning one of the shots to tie the medals and therefore resolve to a yes.
4
Men's Basketball Winner
TheOneB
11 months ago
france takes the lead
0
Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?
TheOneB
11 months ago
imo USA should be 60% because a tie still resolves to a yes. I'm out though lmao
0
Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?
TheOneB
11 months ago
yeah, Liu is 2023's world champion and has better w/l ratio. imane is overpriced
0
5to5000
11 months ago
Liu has better odds than most give. It's not like the Algerian is unbeatable at all.
Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?
TheOneB
11 months ago
gold for USA in 4x100 women's relay
1
Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?
TheOneB
11 months ago
USA has a chance of like 6 golds in the next hour and a half
1
Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?
TheOneB
11 months ago
USA favored to get two golds in wrestling
1
Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?
TheOneB
11 months ago
If you actually look at Imane Khelif career stats you will see she is being massively overvalued. the chinese boxer is the current world champion and has better w/l stats
0
PolyPredictor
11 months ago
Just realized i got my fills. Joined the USA team. Mornings are good for china but USA should get 5 golds this afternoon to close this out
Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?
TheOneB
11 months ago
china can get two gold medals on boxing this night
0
PolyPredictor
11 months ago
Just realized i got my fills. Joined the USA team. Mornings are good for china but USA should get 5 golds this afternoon to close this out
Olympic Basketball: USA vs. Serbia
TheOneB
11 months ago
overpriced if anything
0
Kalags
11 months ago
I really fuckibg got usa at 66c???
Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?
TheOneB
11 months ago
good luck, you're losing to serbia right now lol
0
Culture
11 months ago
Now 30 medals for the USA and 28 for the filthy Asians, and the 31st medal in men's basketball is coming up.
Olympic Basketball: USA vs. Serbia
TheOneB
11 months ago
second quarter over, usa still down by 12
2
Olympic Basketball: USA vs. Serbia
TheOneB
11 months ago
USA 32- Serbia 47, not looking great for americans even if they pump it in the last half
0
Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?
TheOneB
11 months ago
turns out he raced with covid
0
cockbrain
11 months ago
lyles did not look ok
Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?
TheOneB
11 months ago
waterpolo loss despite US being favorites, oooof
0
Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?
TheOneB
11 months ago
he has ashtma i believe
0
cockbrain
11 months ago
lyles did not look ok
Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?
TheOneB
11 months ago
if US loses women's long jump is time to jump ship
0
Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?
TheOneB
11 months ago
yeah, time to buy china at this point
0
GoblinMilk
11 months ago
If Noah Lyles loses gold take that as a bad omen and abandon ship.
Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?
TheOneB
11 months ago
Noah Lyles got wrecked, ooops
1
Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?
TheOneB
11 months ago
if US mess literally any of the athletics today it's a 50/50 chance
0
n/a
11 months ago
no chance china wins lol
Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?
TheOneB
11 months ago
feels like USA chances have to go back to like 82% after today, what a mess
0
Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?
TheOneB
11 months ago
china gold in canoeing and looking to taking all the remaining diving golds
0
Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?
TheOneB
11 months ago
china making a absolute comeback and USA losing multiple certain golds, amazing
0
Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?
TheOneB
11 months ago
Well not really automatic, she will face Yusneylis Guzman
0
PolyPredictor
11 months ago
Wrestling 50kg Freestyle Women Vinesh DQ'ed missing weight by 100g. So thats an automatic gold for USA
MO-1 Democratic Primary Winner
TheOneB
11 months ago
easiest money
0
Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?
TheOneB
11 months ago
they have a good chance of taking women's boxing welterweight. Imane Khelif is way too overvalued due to the controversy
0
CxaTX1n
11 months ago
China will get 5 golds (maybe even 6 in Mens 73KG) in weightlifting. That's baked in. They'd need that 6th, 3 canoe golds, the US only bringing home more 5 golds in Track, which is a ~2% chance, botch the Soccer and Polo final, and get upset by China in Shotput for China to win this. People have to be dreaming big
Who will endorse Kamala?
TheOneB
11 months ago
Kamala is the official nominee, and that's why it's already determined.
1
Yesman1
11 months ago
Im new here but im trying to understand. It says end date August 22nd, but weve already determined its a no?
Highest grossing movie in 2024?
TheOneB
11 months ago
on the other hand, IO2 will be on theaters for a long long while
0
9flare
11 months ago
Some may not be considering the competitors to IO2 and D&W as well... IO2 has to contend with Despicable Me. D&W has a much easier slate of competition until Alien Romulus. As of Aug. 3 AM (PT), 2024 gross is IO2 = $620M and D&W = $298M. Also check out repeat watcher and social media impressions/engagement. When this breaks all R-rated records and gets more media, next weekend could also be historic as a result of the newsworthiness. I think this can be closer than some may think even with an R-rated film vs pixar.
Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?
TheOneB
11 months ago
GABBY THOMAS LETS GOOO
0
Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?
TheOneB
11 months ago
with the women's soccer team going to the final and Cole Hocker shocking win today i'm a lot more bullish on USA win
1
Democratic VP nominee?
TheOneB
11 months ago
me who had bought Waltz at 5 cents and sold at 7: oopsie
3
Democratic Nominee 2024
TheOneB
11 months ago
because she is officially the nominee, factually
1
PanosMariolis2001
11 months ago
Democratic nominee 2024 , what if something happens to Kamala ? What if she gets sick ? I don't understand why you end this market so soon
Democratic VP nominee?
TheOneB
11 months ago
https://twitter.com/tylerpager/status/1819932873719271441?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1819932873719271441%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url= finalists seem to be Shapiro , Waltz and Kelly. Id argue Kelly is currently very underpriced and Shapiro very overpriced
1
Democratic VP nominee?
TheOneB
11 months ago
only issue with him honestly is that he has been pretty invisible in the media in the last week
1
SomeDude69
11 months ago
Honestly she should pick Kelly he is super strong when it comes to immigration which is Trumps main talking point.
Democratic VP nominee?
TheOneB
11 months ago
lets gooo
0
MalikNabers
11 months ago
kelly rises from the dead
Democratic VP nominee?
TheOneB
11 months ago
https://x.com/tylerpager/status/1819895221561254097
0
TheOneB
11 months ago
Mark Kelly just got confirmation for the screening interview
Democratic VP nominee?
TheOneB
11 months ago
Mark Kelly just got confirmation for the screening interview
1
Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?
TheOneB
11 months ago
why is Trump scared to talk on ABC?
1
ncfom
11 months ago
And? Couldnt GAF about any of them, but why are you scared to talk in front of your opposition, nonetheless an audience at all?
Democratic Nominee 2024
TheOneB
11 months ago
things can't change. the virtual roll call will have a official nominee. The convention is rrelevant at tha tpoint.
2
donnarum
11 months ago
Unless they cancel the convention, you will have to wait for the convention. Because things could still change. You don't change the expiration of a futures market only because the price is almost settled, you have to wait for delivery date.
What will Trump say in August?
TheOneB
11 months ago
since the Hannibal Lecter rules allow for simply "Hannibal" or "Lecter" said separately, this seems like a very easy bet
1
Democratic VP nominee?
TheOneB
11 months ago
UAW endorsing Waltz, Shapiro sexual harassment lawsuit reaching mainstream news...it's not over Waltzbros
1
JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee?
TheOneB
11 months ago
I'd say Trump probably wants to get rid of him at this point, but it's also probably way too late. Just the financial and political cost of having to get someone new, as well as scrapping all the available merch would be prohibitive.
3
Cody Ko address allegations in July?
TheOneB
11 months ago
https://tmgstudios.tv/supporters/posts/61259 not a yes quite yet but seems like it might be soon
1
Who will endorse Kamala?
TheOneB
11 months ago
i ain't deleting anything, it was a gamble and I lost, such is life lol
0
jjerry
11 months ago
lol where are all the deleted comments from the Obama no holders
Who will endorse Kamala?
TheOneB
11 months ago
im all in!
1
benfitzzz
11 months ago
yessirrrrrr run that no price up
Who will endorse Kamala?
TheOneB
11 months ago
for sure, but i'm convinced he's saving his endorsement for the DNC. It's just very good theatrics to announce it there
1
benfitzzz
11 months ago
but theres always a chance he endorses her tommorow bro!!!!!!!!
Who will endorse Kamala?
TheOneB
11 months ago
does the virtual roll call count in early August count as a "official nomination"? because if it does this seems a extremely safe bet on "No" for Obama
0