#289
Rank
146
Comments
62
Likes Received
405
Likes Given
Will Trump sanction Russia before March?
Tenebrus7
2 months ago
Well thanks for the clarification but that could have come earlier, not when UMA voted more and more yes and sold 2/3 of the position to derisk
1
Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?
Tenebrus7
2 months ago
well well well : https://x.com/DeItaone/status/1890349481381523758?t=mPTdTH-8iuZBHRKY4GB8ow&s=19
3
Will Trump sanction Russia before March?
Tenebrus7
2 months ago
So if the US sanctions Edward Snowden noe, who has a Russian citizenship. Do we need to talk as well about USA sanction Russia. Or if US pardons Snowden then maybe the pardons Russia 🤔...
1
Will Trump sanction Russia before March?
Tenebrus7
2 months ago
It is a cyber security executive order which is not specifically a sanction against Russia. Now that internet company is Russia based but the action is not against Russia but that company.
1
Legassy
2 months ago
I hope this will resolve the dispute. The sanctions were imposed on the basis of Executive Order No. 14144 (which is clear from the press-report). The Executive Order No. 14144 is entitled "Russian Harmful Foreign Activities Sanctions Act", and, I quote Blocking Property With Respect To Specified Harmful Foreign Activities of the Government of the Russian Federation". According to OFAC's website, it "establishes a new national emergency under which sanctions may be imposed against individuals and entities furthering specified harmful foreign activities of the Russian Federation". You can check the executive order. It is clear that both this Executive Order and the sanctions imposed on the Russian individuals and the legal entity today are targeted against Russia.
Will Trump sanction Russia before March?
Tenebrus7
2 months ago
The passage of an official act/executive order authorizing sanctions on Russia within this market's timeframe will count toward a "Yes" resolution, even if those sanctions do not come into effect until after this market's resolution date (e.g. https://www.state.gov/division-for-counter-threat-finance-and-sanctions/ukraine-and-russia-sanctions).
0
Legassy
2 months ago
Guys, we should be serious. There is nothing in the rules suggesting that the State itself should be targeted, including the Government officials. To the contrary, the rules are specifically designed to encompass any kind of sanctions against Russia (including Russian individuals and legal entities). In particular, the rules explicitly provide that sanctions could include "restrictions on specific individuals, or any other actions that are commonly recognized as sanctions". The reference to "individuals" would make no sense if only sanctions against the Russian State are relevant here.
Will Trump sanction Russia before March?
Tenebrus7
2 months ago
The last part of the rules provide a good reference what counts:
0
Legassy
2 months ago
Guys, we should be serious. There is nothing in the rules suggesting that the State itself should be targeted, including the Government officials. To the contrary, the rules are specifically designed to encompass any kind of sanctions against Russia (including Russian individuals and legal entities). In particular, the rules explicitly provide that sanctions could include "restrictions on specific individuals, or any other actions that are commonly recognized as sanctions". The reference to "individuals" would make no sense if only sanctions against the Russian State are relevant here.
Will Trump sanction Russia before March?
Tenebrus7
2 months ago
+1 to mr.ozi, once again a case of Ron trying to be a lawyer and finding loop holes in the rules to overturn a market
3
Will Trump remove tariff on Mexico before March?
Tenebrus7
2 months ago
If he signs an EO to pause the tariffs for one month the original EO and 25% are still in place, hence No. Only if he signs an EO canceling/removing the tariffs this will go Yes. Br aware of pump and dumps when the EO is signed
4
Will Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico or Canada before February?
Tenebrus7
2 months ago
Lol what are you talking about. Looking to dump your shares on others. It needs to be signed and general tariff. Trump now only talks about potential 25% tariffs on oil
1
vllaadislove
2 months ago
so in the end, trump said about 25%, it turns out "yes"?
Will Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico or Canada before February?
Tenebrus7
2 months ago
Posting alpha, as could use half the funds here in other markets.
0
Tenebrus7
2 months ago
Would recommend for yes holders to check, first tariffs imposed by Trump in his first legislation, only 25% on steel. Never general, now there is even United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement in place which makes it much harder. So general tariffs of 25% what the market requires sub 1%
Will Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico or Canada before February?
Tenebrus7
2 months ago
Would recommend for yes holders to check, first tariffs imposed by Trump in his first legislation, only 25% on steel. Never general, now there is even United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement in place which makes it much harder. So general tariffs of 25% what the market requires sub 1%
0
Will Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico or Canada before February?
Tenebrus7
2 months ago
Columbia is not Mexiko, DJTs postnon Truthsocial does not change the brt here.
0
Trump ends taxes on tips?
Tenebrus7
2 months ago
Nopey he can sign an executive order but that can't bypass Congress and can't sign anything into law. I am ok to sell at 90 and invest elsewhere, don't want to hold onto it for 100 days
0
QuickMaths
2 months ago
This is the "Rosen" Trump said she will have the bill on his desk in a couple of weeks. https://www.rosen.senate.gov/2025/01/21/icymi-rosen-helps-introduce-bipartisan-bill-to-exempt-tips-from-federal-income-tax/
Trump ends taxes on tips?
Tenebrus7
2 months ago
You understand that Trump can't sign a bill into law what the rules require, right? It needs to pass Congress
0
QuickMaths
2 months ago
This is the "Rosen" Trump said she will have the bill on his desk in a couple of weeks. https://www.rosen.senate.gov/2025/01/21/icymi-rosen-helps-introduce-bipartisan-bill-to-exempt-tips-from-federal-income-tax/
Trump ends taxes on tips?
Tenebrus7
2 months ago
Dream on, daily decline with nothing happening
1
Cameroni
2 months ago
Keep dropping it I’ll be more
Trump ends taxes on tips?
Tenebrus7
2 months ago
Told you, don't overestimate yourself. Only reason the price was so high for yes, you. No Tiktok alpha here sorry bro
1
SkiLLz
2 months ago
Couple weeks max liberals can’t wait when we got another 90 days still
Trump ends taxes on tips?
Tenebrus7
2 months ago
GG yes holders Trump not being stupid, can't go around congress
1
mr.ozi
2 months ago
That’s it - Trump said they would do it through Congress. Most likely not before May. gg.
Trump ends taxes on tips?
Tenebrus7
2 months ago
It's not about that, look at the crypto reserve market. An EO was signed but then the only content was to form a working group to look into it. I must admit he is smart in that regards kind of keeping his promises but not overstepping the law/ or at least his lawyers told him ;). You had inside knowledge in the tiktok market but don't overestimate yourself now ;) gl
0
itsfine
2 months ago
“ Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect” does this mean that taxes on tips never has to be removed as long as trump signs EO
Trump ends taxes on tips?
Tenebrus7
2 months ago
Point is Tax is an IRS topic you can't sign an EO. He could still do the same as for crypto to sign an EO to look into it for congress. With that he makes his voter happy but he just can't cancel taxes - only righting alpha as I am max invested on that market already.
0
itsfine
2 months ago
“ Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect” does this mean that taxes on tips never has to be removed as long as trump signs EO
Trump imposes 40% tariff on China in first 100 days?
Tenebrus7
2 months ago
Same, agree
0
Eridpnc
2 months ago
helo hhhhhhh my order expires in 10 hours I think it's a good exit price and I need liquidity for tomorrows' markets
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April?
Tenebrus7
3 months ago
You don't have to sell - once the bet ends you can redeem the full amount or zero.
0
HBTOWER
3 months ago
I’m using this for the first time. I have a question. If someone’s bet turns out to be correct, will they receive the money once the bet ends, even if they don’t sell their shares? Or do they need to sell before the event ends?
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in 2024?
Tenebrus7
3 months ago
Well Ukraine Now telling the shot 20 drones and killed 6 Russians last night, much ceasefire lmao
0
Derivatives_Ape/Prometheus arrested this year?
Tenebrus7
3 months ago
In dubio pro reo - the market does not have the volume that someone would be on purpose holding evidence back, accumulating shares at cheap prices and then drop it. Nothing new, hence needs to go to No
1
Will Trump remove FBI director Christopher Wray?
Tenebrus7
4 months ago
Yes but only after 20th of January, he steps down first, No wins :)
0
eb..
4 months ago
The title is misleading. This market is actually about if he ceases to be the fbi director at any time, until april. As the rules says
Will Trump remove FBI director Christopher Wray?
Tenebrus7
4 months ago
gg Wray won't wait to be kicked out by Trump.
0
Will Trump remove FBI director Christopher Wray?
Tenebrus7
4 months ago
Put a order at 20 and fine to sell it :)
0
Car
4 months ago
Tenebrus7 fuck off
Will Trump remove FBI director Christopher Wray?
Tenebrus7
4 months ago
Lol, got fucked in the election, need it now oo
0
Car
4 months ago
Tenebrus7 fuck off
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
Tenebrus7
6 months ago
Just no need and enough reason for UMA to clearly vote YES or No at this stage
1
Tenebrus7
6 months ago
Quite likely to be voted P4, too early now. Imagine Trump going to Joe Rogan being asked about his involvement then stating he is not involved and just gets a commission like for any other deal he does.
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
Tenebrus7
6 months ago
Quite likely to be voted P4, too early now. Imagine Trump going to Joe Rogan being asked about his involvement then stating he is not involved and just gets a commission like for any other deal he does.
5
What will Trump say during Arizona rally?
Tenebrus7
6 months ago
Plus CNN had subtitles saying teacher already live.
0
Randomchooser
6 months ago
In the same situation one month ago UMA voted YES for Walz "tch" saying he was clearly meant "teacher" which it wasn't, why this time should be different with a word spoken clearer? Facts, not opinions.
Will Trump go on Joe Rogan before election?
Tenebrus7
6 months ago
Nice someone market bought No, did mind to get out.
0
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
Tenebrus7
6 months ago
What happened to your 70k Yes position in that market? If I recall correctly oo? I am always on the wrong side of volatility in this market oo
1
aenews2
6 months ago
Can we go back to 45c for old time's sake?
Favorite to win on Polymarket day before election?
Tenebrus7
6 months ago
Good thing with a lower price for now here is that makes it more likely for whales to enter here and try to push the main market on the day above 50%. But quite capital heavy, waiting for Yatsen etc to join the game or 50pence to buy more. Come on guys good time to get into the market here :)
1
BuckMySalls
6 months ago
this market is just asking for trouble. i realize i'm up against it now with fredi doing qe on trump shares but all it takes is a week of +2 polls for kamala in the rust belt and she'll be right back up there. they're subbing in obama to start campaigning for her in the fourth quarter. gl maga moonbois
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Tenebrus7
6 months ago
Can't withhold and quote my comment from yesterday ;) : If October would not have happend September would not be N invasion, so how can September by itself be an invasion. We will see shortly, in case No loses people will be quiet - in case yes loses, people gonna spam the comment section how unfair it is.
1
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Tenebrus7
6 months ago
It is not the same amount of people, tanks, forces, they enteted, retreated and invaded
0
TooDumbToWin
6 months ago
the question of entry into the territory was resolved quickly, if UMA then said "early request" for the invasion it is simply because it was too early to know if we could talk about invasion or not, they were waiting to know more, people think that this will turn into no, but by saying "early request" it does not mean that they want to say NO just that it was too early, now the invasion has been determined so entry into the territory is indeed an invasion
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Tenebrus7
6 months ago
If October would not have happend September would not be N invasion, so how can September by itself be an invasion. We will see shortly, in case No loses people will be quiet - in case yes loses, people gonna spam the comment section how unfair it is.
0
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Tenebrus7
6 months ago
Yes some of US actions resulted invasion like here but timelime is important, not the first men send could be called invasion. Like here the invasion is clear but the timeline and actions matter. It is definitely debatable.
0
BibiNetanyahu
6 months ago
As someone who lived in northern Israel and has now been evacuated, I'll share my perspective, having experienced it firsthand. From the beginning, on October 8th, it was clear the intention was to capture southern Lebanon (up to the Litani River) and establish a buffer zone between us and Hezbollah terrorists. This was obvious from the start, but we couldn’t achieve it because most of our main forces were focused on Gaza. Now that Hamas is 90% dealt with, the focus has shifted to the northern front. And yet, some privileged person is trying to claim that Israel is there for fun? What a joke.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Tenebrus7
6 months ago
No one claims they are there for fun if it would only be about intentions the market would not exist or would be at 100% yes from start. Still the small raids in empty areas after air strikes can't be classified as invasion yes. In how many countries did US send troops, did they Invade all, nope
1
BibiNetanyahu
6 months ago
As someone who lived in northern Israel and has now been evacuated, I'll share my perspective, having experienced it firsthand. From the beginning, on October 8th, it was clear the intention was to capture southern Lebanon (up to the Litani River) and establish a buffer zone between us and Hezbollah terrorists. This was obvious from the start, but we couldn’t achieve it because most of our main forces were focused on Gaza. Now that Hamas is 90% dealt with, the focus has shifted to the northern front. And yet, some privileged person is trying to claim that Israel is there for fun? What a joke.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Tenebrus7
6 months ago
All in on any bet is stupid, simple bank roll management
0
BibiNetanyahu
6 months ago
Food for thought: If JustKen/Doomer is so confident about his position and that this market will end up as 'NO (P1)', why is he trying to convince people in Discord, Polymarket, and on Twitter? If I were him, I would just stay quiet and enjoy buying the cheap 'NO' shares.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Tenebrus7
6 months ago
Why are posting instead of buying more - same question.
0
BibiNetanyahu
6 months ago
Food for thought: If JustKen/Doomer is so confident about his position and that this market will end up as 'NO (P1)', why is he trying to convince people in Discord, Polymarket, and on Twitter? If I were him, I would just stay quiet and enjoy buying the cheap 'NO' shares.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Tenebrus7
6 months ago
Mission Northern Arrow and the IDF speech does not contradict that first ground raids started without a goal to establish control then invasion happening later. Mission Northern Arrow was ongoing for a long time including the air strikes before
0
BigMike11
6 months ago
Look. If we find a video of Trump saying "mog" a month ago, nobody would hesitate to use it to resolve the "Has Trump said mog?" market simply because it came before the the last P4 vote.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Tenebrus7
6 months ago
Only the following actions in October made it true, if stopped at the deadline by end of September no invasion would have commenced.
0
BigMike11
6 months ago
Did you see this point-blank eye-witness testimony from an Israeli commander on September 30th that the invasion had commenced? https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-821158
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Tenebrus7
6 months ago
The comment section is not for the process and if hold enough UMA token to make an impact on the vote lfmao.
1
PolyRig-Fried
6 months ago
Dude, stop it. Vote with your UMA shares, you only reshuffle chairs on the Titanic. UMA votes is all that counts in the end. Actually you posting here, make me think you don't understand the process and your 7.6k NOs are rightfully taken from you.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Tenebrus7
6 months ago
We will see, arguments for both sides, feels like 50:50 now.
0
Tenebrus7
6 months ago
Thoughts of a No Holder: in isolation the September actions could only me counted as entered and limited raids, all sources of wester media with headline invasion quoting that as source. Only due to subsequent October 2nd actions there is even a question of September Invasion. In a parallel world were October actions would not have followed September would already be at No. Thoughts of a Yes holder: but November resolved to YES...
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Tenebrus7
6 months ago
Thoughts of a No Holder: in isolation the September actions could only me counted as entered and limited raids, all sources of wester media with headline invasion quoting that as source. Only due to subsequent October 2nd actions there is even a question of September Invasion. In a parallel world were October actions would not have followed September would already be at No. Thoughts of a Yes holder: but November resolved to YES...
3
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Tenebrus7
6 months ago
November market money inflow - take the 40% equity which should be at 70%+ , ty all.
0
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Tenebrus7
6 months ago
Israel has also launched small special forces operations into southern Lebanon ahead of a potential ground offensive, an Israeli official told NBC News. Yoav Gallant, Israel's defense minister, said the “next phase in the war against Hezbollah will begin soon.”
1
Tenebrus7
6 months ago
Are you able to read beyond headlines?:
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Tenebrus7
6 months ago
Are you able to read beyond headlines?:
0
HsB34sgg
6 months ago
NBC confirmed Yes! https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/live-blog/israel-hezbollah-live-updates-hamas-leader-lebanon-killed-strike-hits-rcna173218
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Tenebrus7
6 months ago
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-september-30-2024
0
Phrank
6 months ago
If the “Will Israel Enter Lebanon in September?” and the “Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?” both resolve to YES I don’t logically see how this market could be anything other than YES
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Tenebrus7
6 months ago
How has more experience with UMA votes and similar cases you or them. And who has made more money you or the guy losing 2.5MM and still able to bet 1MM. Tough question
0
NUTZILLA
6 months ago
therealbatman -$3m Profit/loss
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Tenebrus7
6 months ago
So much looking forward seeing the YES betters that bought after Oct first complaining how rigged the site and the system is and how unfair the world is.
2
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Tenebrus7
6 months ago
Check evidence provided by Domer on UMA,
0
Tenebrus7
6 months ago
Just the UN on October 1st
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Tenebrus7
6 months ago
Just the UN on October 1st
0
McLarry
6 months ago
Polymarket is the only place that advocates the thesis raids on September 30th invasion on October 1st hypothesis. I have yet to hear anyone in the media or in real life put forth this twisted thesis.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Tenebrus7
6 months ago
Difference of small raids in the night of 30th, vs intent to establish control on the 2nd of Oct
0
yourrapist1776
6 months ago
So your aguing the november invasion market should have settled no, when it already settled yes. So if UMA decided the invasion took place already, why are you so stubborn in thinking that they will now vote for the complete opposite in this market?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Tenebrus7
6 months ago
Why did the market then drop on the 1st of October to 6ct after ruled too early? If it was so clear in the media it was an invasion by the 30th?
0
yourrapist1776
6 months ago
September enter yes (already settled), october invade yes (already settled), september invade no is an impossible scenario unless JustCuck and his goons send blacked out escalades to UMA whales oceanfront homes in a forced persuasion operation
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Tenebrus7
6 months ago
Imagine posting an article from 4th of October for a September market....
0
HsB34sgg
6 months ago
Results speak for themselves. https://www.firstpost.com/explainers/israel-ground-invasion-might-cause-lebanon-to-completely-collapse-13822174.html
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Tenebrus7
6 months ago
Plus the only thing that changed in the last 24 hours is November market closing and price goes from 20ct to 60ct, hence literally the YES holders don't believe the evidence the provide until November closed
0
Tenebrus7
6 months ago
Only confidence YES holders have, a November resolved and Chad bought so let's buy more.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Tenebrus7
6 months ago
Look at the evidence in UMA, has closed Too early P4, First time - no new evidence in the hours from the first vote till deadline besides raids, hence logical consequences for Sept is NO :https://vote.uma.xyz/
0
GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix
6 months ago
Give me evidence for No and I'll switch sides
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Tenebrus7
6 months ago
Only confidence YES holders have, a November resolved and Chad bought so let's buy more.
1
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Tenebrus7
6 months ago
You still don't get it, or you are just try to scam others. NO was not an option as it was too early to close on NO.
1
Justifax
6 months ago
Be aware that this has been voted on, it went P4, with P2 and 3.2M shares on YES and 0.1% on NO. Early requ... 81.15% (14,063,467.91) No 0.10% (17,280.03) Yes 18.75% (3,249,840.66) unknown/50... 0.00% (106.42) https://vote.uma.xyz/
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Tenebrus7
6 months ago
So true the amount of YES posts correlate with people buying post 30th of September and the price drop after the ruling
0
Ferguson,Turd
6 months ago
This has been voted on already, Now some scumbags trying to scam others to buy their dead bags. This is not good and sad
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Tenebrus7
6 months ago
All YES holders provide are articles that claim in the headline Invade then you read the only source is the quote on IDF raids and pictures of an air strike
0
Scoobs
6 months ago
All of the P2 votes provide sources, articles, information. The P4 voters just say “it feels too soon”. Really shows you how credible this whole process is.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Tenebrus7
6 months ago
Buy then the free 5% then in the other market, if you read discord and Uma there arguments for both too early and yes. This market here was at close to 90yes then voted too early and moved to 5ct. The yes holders panicked once and now pump for X return
0
Shayku
6 months ago
It should spike, since it will confirm a foundational argument for Yes.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Tenebrus7
6 months ago
If it resolves to Yes maybe, if it resolves to: too early at the time of proposal will go to Zero here. The November market can then resolve to YES later still
0
Scoobs
6 months ago
When the November market resolves Yes later today, What will that mean for this market?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Tenebrus7
6 months ago
Spending so much time for 346 yes shares, must be a sad life, the time put in could easily make you more working stocking shelves:D
0
HsB34sgg
6 months ago
"The top Jordanian diplomat stressed the need for the international community to immediately act to reach a cease-fire and implement UN Resolution 1701. Passed in 2006, the resolution calls for a complete cessation of hostilities between Lebanon and Israel and the establishment of a demilitarized zone between the Blue Line (the de facto boundary between Lebanon and Israel) and the Litani River, allowing only the Lebanese army and the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) to possess weapons and military equipment in the area." https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/jordan-reiterates-support-to-lebanon-in-face-of-israeli-attacks/3346858 The international community FAILED to act to reach a cease-fire and implement UN Resolution 1701. Hezbollah stayed to antagonize Israel. When Hezbollah attacked Israel on October 8th, 2023, Israel had enough! If no one else will do it, Israel will do it themselves, once and for all!
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Tenebrus7
6 months ago
Small raids don't equal : intended to establish control over any portion of Lebanon
0
Scoobs
6 months ago
The rules here don't even require military forces moving in - just a "military offensive".
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Tenebrus7
6 months ago
We have (1) IDF saying targeted raids, (2) we have Hizbollah saying nothing at all (3) some western media where no one was there, quoting IDF raids ( and some give for klick baiting the headline "Invade".
0
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Tenebrus7
6 months ago
Other market for "entered" was exactly for that use case created and that resolved correctly YES
0
Pidor🐓
6 months ago
i fed chatgpt this and it said the market resolves yes https://www.npr.org/2024/09/30/nx-s1-5133463/israel-lebanon-hezbollah-invasion https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-lebanon-war-hezbollah-09-30-24-intl-hnk https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/09/30/israel-lebanon-hezbollah-hamas-war-news-gaza/ https://www.axios.com/2024/09/30/israel-ground-invasion-lebanon https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czxgyzq7z2ro.amp
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Tenebrus7
6 months ago
People only buying on the klick bait headlines, UMA voters will read all: The Israeli military said it had launched “limited, localized and targeted raids” against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon overnight Monday
0
Pidor🐓
6 months ago
i fed chatgpt this and it said the market resolves yes https://www.npr.org/2024/09/30/nx-s1-5133463/israel-lebanon-hezbollah-invasion https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-lebanon-war-hezbollah-09-30-24-intl-hnk https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/09/30/israel-lebanon-hezbollah-hamas-war-news-gaza/ https://www.axios.com/2024/09/30/israel-ground-invasion-lebanon https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czxgyzq7z2ro.amp
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Tenebrus7
6 months ago
World leader.. lfmao
5
Donkov
6 months ago
Heres how world leaders interpret the special military raids https://x.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1841095817408532823
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Tenebrus7
6 months ago
Agree, let them pump and dream to get rich like in the entered market. Will buy more if it goes up further.
0
mr.ozi
6 months ago
Voting No is logically wrong, because the resolution was proposed a few hours before the deadline, so in principle Israel could've invaded between the proposal before the deadline. The Too Early votes can essentially be seen as No votes for the next round.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Tenebrus7
6 months ago
Wait and see what happens once US traders wake up and once money is freed up from the enter market, will trade at 95 NO at 4PM CET - time to double your shares and get out still ;)
1
Donkov
6 months ago
But its a done deal
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Tenebrus7
6 months ago
If Yes would be a viable solution for too early wouldn't have dropped so much but rather like the Maduro market to 80 first and then slowly going down with more evidence. All the yes holders hope for is another pump and dump in the 30s
0
Tenebrus7
6 months ago
Pump und dump is over, it has been ruled too early. Which other new evidence do Yes holders think we find now X days later that the small raids in September were an invasion. If ruled too early now, will be ruled NO in 15 hours.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Tenebrus7
6 months ago
Why would I if I can get No at 87
1
Donkov
6 months ago
Can you please fill me at 10.9?
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Tenebrus7
6 months ago
Pump und dump is over, it has been ruled too early. Which other new evidence do Yes holders think we find now X days later that the small raids in September were an invasion. If ruled too early now, will be ruled NO in 15 hours.
0
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Tenebrus7
6 months ago
So fun to see all these NO holders dreaming to get rich quickly on this one .
0
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Tenebrus7
6 months ago
Haha exactly, this market only resolves to Yes: September 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. ET is New York time zone or in 6 am their time zone on October 1st.
0
PDIDDY
6 months ago
After a long time researching the exact time of the isrealian entry in the Lebanon territory, they indeed violated the border in the early hours october 1st
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Tenebrus7
6 months ago
You are a fun guy :), still unsure when you are joking vs when you are not (e.i. the other comment about you being a very early crypto bro and being retired and this is just play money :).
0
HaterzLoserz
6 months ago
Hey there good looking fella, I like you a lot, youre a smart guy. Ive been told many times im the most knowledgeable, they say to me "wow, how'd you become so knowledgeable" and I say "I dont know I was just born with it, its in the Trump family I guess, the Trump name, great name, great genes, the best genes."
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Tenebrus7
6 months ago
Check Activity YES holders, the most knowledgeable Yes holder HaterLozer sold all his Yes shares at 70-80ct. Still one to get out
0
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Tenebrus7
6 months ago
Small raids and a picture of the tanks from yesterday at the border, much news....
0
abdendriel
6 months ago
https://amp.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/sep/30/israel-attacks-live-blog-lebanon-yemen-hamas-hezbollah-news-updates-middle-east-crisis
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Tenebrus7
6 months ago
9:15 hours, but agree
0
Car
6 months ago
Also guys, they arent even over the border yet. And this market ends in a few hours lol.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Tenebrus7
6 months ago
So a closed military zone im Israel= equal invasion, sure ....
0
Phat.
6 months ago
https://x.com/Faytuks/status/1840809757759979827
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Tenebrus7
6 months ago
Funny how liquidity bots fill the large spread and every YES holder pushing like it would be necessary for the so visible Tanks to rush at night now. No surprise needed here at all, the can form, take their time and march in the next days.
2
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Tenebrus7
6 months ago
Damn, someone market sold just his yes shares fine to exit no at 70ct, should have put higher. Watching from the sidelines from now :)
0
What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?
Tenebrus7
6 months ago
Thought I can get more Conrad even cheaper, but still got some. It is Pennsylvania he will talk about what Conrad Kamala will do to ban fracking:https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/113185000999885454
2
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Tenebrus7
6 months ago
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.timesofisrael.com/while-still-in-gaza-israel-has-no-good-options-in-lebanon-but-it-may-invade-anyway/amp/
1
Tenebrus7
6 months ago
Instead of pumping Twitter posts a good article that summarizes the current situation, for me in summary main arguments for No are: (1) moving forces in the north would weaken the south vs Gaza/Hamas and (2) just a short attack to create a buffer zone has not worked in the past. Air strikes most likely from my pov, still Oct 7/8 will be interesting :
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Tenebrus7
6 months ago
Instead of pumping Twitter posts a good article that summarizes the current situation, for me in summary main arguments for No are: (1) moving forces in the north would weaken the south vs Gaza/Hamas and (2) just a short attack to create a buffer zone has not worked in the past. Air strikes most likely from my pov, still Oct 7/8 will be interesting :
1
Who wins most votes in Brandenburg election?
Tenebrus7
6 months ago
Off topic and did not have time to participate much in this market but: mehr Deutsche hier als gedacht;)
0
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Tenebrus7
7 months ago
Haha 😅, I saw your other bet as well, still I found it viable to defend the no price already just in case and for a little amusement as well :), as said earlier I like your approach, just not when I am on the other side
1
Tenebrus7
7 months ago
In before Car pushes his yes shares with a link to X when an airstrike hits ;): For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Tenebrus7
7 months ago
In before Car pushes his yes shares with a link to X when an airstrike hits ;): For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered
10
What will Trump say during New York rally?
Tenebrus7
7 months ago
Then buy some NO, in case you are being sarcastic tell me why :). The location Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum fits 15000 people. And how many of those random people will be interested in crypto oO
0
Car
7 months ago
good take
What will Trump say during New York rally?
Tenebrus7
7 months ago
It's one thing to engage on crypto with people in the crypto bubble another to talk in a rally about it where 95% of the audience has no clue about it.
1
Will Apple remain largest company through Sep 30?
Tenebrus7
7 months ago
182 Billions in Market cap ahead for apple, iPhone 16 pre sales started Friday, 20th of September official sale which can push the apple stock further. It can happen for sure, but no exit liquidity for the No holders that are counting the days and trying to push the price down to sell.
1
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
Tenebrus7
7 months ago
RugRadio: from our side, it's an interview. Trump will buzzword again 10 times crypto and Bitcoin and will talk about not creating a federal reserve but stockpile,l and even if he says WLFI will launch a coin it will be in the future.
3
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
Tenebrus7
7 months ago
Even if they announce on Monday the launch of a coin it needs to be fully deployed before election to resolve to YES: Network Activation: The coin must be active on the blockchain network. And: Operational Status: The coin should be functional and operable, meaning transactions can be executed, and its smart contract is properly interacting with the blockchain as intended.
2
Will Apple remain largest company through Sep 30?
Tenebrus7
7 months ago
Ofc your post and approach is very valid to your trading strategy, I like it actually, just putting into $ perspective.
1
Tenebrus7
7 months ago
214 Billions difference in Market cap.
Will Apple remain largest company through Sep 30?
Tenebrus7
7 months ago
One 6.7% sounds small, but if one looks at the total money that need to be moved to achieve that which in this case is the 214 Billions it's a lot
1
Car
7 months ago
what does it matter when MSFT is closing the gap with about 1% per day? :)
Will Apple remain largest company through Sep 30?
Tenebrus7
7 months ago
214 Billions difference in Market cap.
2
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
Tenebrus7
7 months ago
Official Telegram Channel of WLFI empty, nothing about it. They would let their core group know about it, Car get the best of this AI post. Mountainman sleeping and only coming back when prices are further again oo
1
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
Tenebrus7
7 months ago
Not a single post in the Telegram group of WLFI - looks really strange. Will hold on to it. Anyhow can't come back here seeing Mountainmain celebrating himself.
0
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
Tenebrus7
7 months ago
Tik Tok, tik Tok everyday going down till 0 mountain my friend.
8
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
Tenebrus7
7 months ago
Share the actual white paper, just upload it to a Sharedrive and post it. Oh you can't whoops it is no where to be found. All sites only claim that coin base received fragments of it and then for click baiting writes about trump. Just go ahead don't link to any site, Google it upload the PDF for everyone to read. Oh wait you can't.
1
Mountainman
7 months ago
Does the “NO” crowd understand that once Donald becomes President, that being part of the launch as an active U.S President becomes extremely dangerous for him legally, as U.S presidents can’t behave like private citizens. If you want to do the research yourself you can check out the following things that will restrict his involvement once he is in office: The Emoluments Clause (U.S. Constitution), Conflict of Interest Laws, and Presidential Ethics Agreements. After you do that, then get back to me and answer me one simple question….. Why the hell would he wait to launch until after he is President and deal with all of that bullshit, when he can just launch now???
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
Tenebrus7
7 months ago
And even if he would be named in it and even if he becomes president, it is not like he cares about the law so much..
0
Mountainman
7 months ago
Does the “NO” crowd understand that once Donald becomes President, that being part of the launch as an active U.S President becomes extremely dangerous for him legally, as U.S presidents can’t behave like private citizens. If you want to do the research yourself you can check out the following things that will restrict his involvement once he is in office: The Emoluments Clause (U.S. Constitution), Conflict of Interest Laws, and Presidential Ethics Agreements. After you do that, then get back to me and answer me one simple question….. Why the hell would he wait to launch until after he is President and deal with all of that bullshit, when he can just launch now???
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
Tenebrus7
7 months ago
Share the white paper that states that he is involved. Oh wait, don't you have it. If he is not in it, WLFI can launch regardless of the election outcome.
0
Mountainman
7 months ago
Does the “NO” crowd understand that once Donald becomes President, that being part of the launch as an active U.S President becomes extremely dangerous for him legally, as U.S presidents can’t behave like private citizens. If you want to do the research yourself you can check out the following things that will restrict his involvement once he is in office: The Emoluments Clause (U.S. Constitution), Conflict of Interest Laws, and Presidential Ethics Agreements. After you do that, then get back to me and answer me one simple question….. Why the hell would he wait to launch until after he is President and deal with all of that bullshit, when he can just launch now???
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
Tenebrus7
7 months ago
So desperately looking for exit liquidity:D
5
Mountainman
7 months ago
The BIG week is here!!!! Major announcements confirmed to be coming this week. 99% sure a launch date will be revealed, lining up perfectly for a historically amazing month for crypto- October. As soon as that tweet drops all of the big money dogs on here are going to flood into this market within seconds and Market Buy “YES” leaving "NO" in the single digits in the snap of a finger, exactly like what happened a few days ago with the Trump Sentencing markets. Coming here and watching all of the shit talkers scrambling for a new excuse, and begging others to dispute. Oh boy will it be entertaining!!!
Will Trump debate Kamala on Sept 10?
Tenebrus7
7 months ago
Scheduled as planned, released by ABC news : https://abc.com/news/5e38600c-4732-4cd2-a99c-3dedfa81beb0/category/1138628
1
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
Tenebrus7
7 months ago
Potentially someone trying out an API to trade
1
NeverEver🇺🇦
7 months ago
Can some one explain me why guys are buying YES and selling in immediately for a loss? They are making the wash trades but why?
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
Tenebrus7
7 months ago
Love it!
2
Naturalnoob
7 months ago
I place this bet base on my comprehension of the rules of this market. Knowing that nft doesn’t count. With conviction of multiple reasonings I have so much so that I don’t have to rant it out all day to get validation. Toxic arguements hoping to sway the price so that some of you could sell early is not my style. I will hold this till resolution day and quietly realize full equity of my bet.
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
Tenebrus7
7 months ago
Link
0
Mountainman
7 months ago
White. paper was released to the media 2 days ago, that explicitly listed him as being part of the project. Therefore the pump.
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
Tenebrus7
7 months ago
No, that's exactly the point - no where to be found. And all trump himself ever did was just reposted the X handle once the WLFI with a video totally unrelated. Even if they ever launch a token not enough for involvement. Same as he would repost about Bitcoin. Was he involved in the creation of Bitcoin. Nope
1
Donkov
7 months ago
Anyone got source on the white papers?
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
Tenebrus7
7 months ago
Btw still think your trading strategy is good and pushing prices is just part of the game of making a profit, just on the other side here ;)
0
Car
7 months ago
Donald Trump his name is in the white paper listed as Crypto Advocate. The "he is not involved" argument doesnt stand anymore. RIP! now we play the waiting game. (NFA, not pumping , this is my opinion)
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
Tenebrus7
7 months ago
The actual leaked white paper, can't find it anywhere. Just many many sites copying from each other claiming there is one leaked.
0
Car
7 months ago
Donald Trump his name is in the white paper listed as Crypto Advocate. The "he is not involved" argument doesnt stand anymore. RIP! now we play the waiting game. (NFA, not pumping , this is my opinion)
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
Tenebrus7
7 months ago
Post the link/pdf
0
Car
7 months ago
Donald Trump his name is in the white paper listed as Crypto Advocate. The "he is not involved" argument doesnt stand anymore. RIP! now we play the waiting game. (NFA, not pumping , this is my opinion)
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
Tenebrus7
7 months ago
After the scam - trump will not want to be associated with it anytime soon. Even if a token launches, it will be his son's.
4
Ukraine hits Moscow by Sept 30?
Tenebrus7
7 months ago
Downed drone, too much equity already in this market to buy more, waiting for prices to adjust again now: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-01/fire-at-moscow-oil-refinery-as-russia-downs-158-ukrainian-drones?embedded-checkout=true
1
Ukraine hits Moscow by Sept 30?
Tenebrus7
7 months ago
Nice exit Car at 97, well still waiting at credible reporting, all states yet shot down drone
1
Ukraine hits Moscow by Sept 30?
Tenebrus7
7 months ago
Instead of posting the same video again and again, rather buy the No limit orders waiting, poor guy.
0
n/a
7 months ago
https://x.com/JimmySecUK/status/1830141465109885419 This is the best vid of refinery attack. Super clear hit, definitely not a crash.
Ukraine hits Moscow by Sept 30?
Tenebrus7
7 months ago
Even if legit, clearly shot down.
0
Loverboy
7 months ago
there is a video of a direct hit by a drone on an oil refinery in Moscow https://x.com/toprankcapital/status/1830119827048124548
Ukraine hits Moscow by Sept 30?
Tenebrus7
7 months ago
Indeed
0
XiJinPing
7 months ago
you can buy YES in 2 days for 25 cents
Ukraine hits Moscow by Sept 30?
Tenebrus7
7 months ago
Exactly, will not be sufficient to resolve to yes. Indeed, if so sure, propose, will be disputed as too early. Have you ever seen a drone hit - the plant would be gone. And now as many drones are gone, not so likely they will hit again soon. Need to accept with my No bet the price will stay bad after this attempt for a while now. But clearly no hit confirmed.
0
Vaskor
7 months ago
even if it enters Moscow's airspace and its wreckage lands in Moscow causing damage, it will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution.
Ukraine hits Moscow by Sept 30?
Tenebrus7
7 months ago
It is about credible reporting, Reuter citing: drone debris. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-launches-drones-moscow-other-regions-russian-officials-say-2024-08-31/
2
Ukraine hits Moscow by Sept 30?
Tenebrus7
7 months ago
My DJI drone if shot down makes a bigger blast - lol. Well plaid CAR again pushing the market, but does not count according to rules
0
X banned in Brazil by Friday?
Tenebrus7
7 months ago
Damn sold the 4ct yes shares at 8 ct ;(
0
Will Apple remain largest company through Sep 30?
Tenebrus7
7 months ago
Agree, just Car doing his thing well and pushing the No price up.
0
DoughJones
7 months ago
As of now AAPL dropped 0,4% of its cap comparing to yesterday, and nvda gained 0,5%, which is 1% difference roughly in total, but in polymarket yes prices dropped 8%. What's the logic?
X banned in Brazil by Friday?
Tenebrus7
7 months ago
Make it happen! @ Oatmeal, pushing all day the Yes story but now You sold oO
0
debased
7 months ago
Fuck elon. Lulo is standing with the Supreme Court's decision to ban. https://x.com/LulaOficial/status/1829487863920009248
X banned in Brazil by Friday?
Tenebrus7
7 months ago
Such great odds now, will still happen 1 out 10 times for sure.
1
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before October?
Tenebrus7
7 months ago
As expected
0
sd2333
7 months ago
5 MIN AGO WALLA Reporter #BREAKING A senior official in the Palestinian factions said that the talks in Qatar have failed and that the negotiations are about to collapse due to Israel's refusal to the mediators proposal: Al Mayadeen https://x.com/guyelster/status/1829511101140398250
What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?
Tenebrus7
7 months ago
More background on Johnstown: https://www.inquirer.com/politics/election/donald-trump-johnstown-rally-voters-steel-20240829.html
0
Tenebrus7
7 months ago
Drill Baby Drill - for sure, expresses the support for drilling gas/oil. Johnstown is working class city, Trump said before there:This is the place where generations of tough, strong Pennsylvania workers mine the coal, work the railroads, and forge the steel,”
What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?
Tenebrus7
7 months ago
Drill Baby Drill - for sure, expresses the support for drilling gas/oil. Johnstown is working class city, Trump said before there:This is the place where generations of tough, strong Pennsylvania workers mine the coal, work the railroads, and forge the steel,”
1
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before October?
Tenebrus7
7 months ago
It will take time, a lot :)
0
Pavel Durov released in August?
Tenebrus7
7 months ago
Says the guy who had 25k no shares oo
0
Rueben
7 months ago
goddamn some of you idiots bet a lot on this
Pavel Durov released in August?
Tenebrus7
7 months ago
50 pence big on the NO side makes me confident:)
2
Pavel Durov released in August?
Tenebrus7
7 months ago
Read the rules ofc transport does not count as released. You need to get transported to court and get you are not released ;)
2
BzhkSrg
7 months ago
So, technically, Durov has been released from police custody, no? https://x.com/MoscowTimes/status/1828781770872950984
Pavel Durov released in August?
Tenebrus7
7 months ago
One the most fun markets lately with up and downs, short time frame to end, and fun comment section :)
2
Pavel Durov released in August?
Tenebrus7
7 months ago
Love the involvement for 57 shares ;)
0
Sit
7 months ago
Money will be made today boys
Pavel Durov released in August?
Tenebrus7
7 months ago
They are not just going to release him now today like whoops we made a mistake, will get charged. The international attention rather makes a charge even more likely.
2
Pavel Durov released in August?
Tenebrus7
7 months ago
Agree on all of the above of your replies (even if Car is as usually commenting to push the market to sell an buy again, which I don't judge - that's part of the game, truly). Was more interested about the discussion itself and if the market would react at all regarding the post:).
1
Tenebrus7
7 months ago
Sold my No shares for now again -maybe a bit paranoid, but as I was screwed once by insider knowledge here, don't know. Top Yes holder only signed up for this market on poly and keeps buying yes. Either just a Telegram/Pavlov fanboy who is optimistic or buying Yes with knowledge (but for that 20k is not much oo). Sus or not sus? On the other hand on the market will Biden resign a whale came in the day of the press conference blew 500k, buying the entire market empty and lost it all. Sometimes hard to tell if Fish or Insider :D
Pavel Durov released in August?
Tenebrus7
7 months ago
True, consider it unlikely but still a bit strange to just sign up for one market to poly.
0
EmpirePending
7 months ago
Insider buying for this market is insanely riskier than for the bieber baby market which is what I assume you’re talking about. Only people that know what will happen (if anyone) is those very high up in the French police and maybe a handful of lawyers. Neither of those fit the bill if somebody who would be betting 20k on Polymarket.
Pavel Durov released in August?
Tenebrus7
7 months ago
Sold my No shares for now again -maybe a bit paranoid, but as I was screwed once by insider knowledge here, don't know. Top Yes holder only signed up for this market on poly and keeps buying yes. Either just a Telegram/Pavlov fanboy who is optimistic or buying Yes with knowledge (but for that 20k is not much oo). Sus or not sus? On the other hand on the market will Biden resign a whale came in the day of the press conference blew 500k, buying the entire market empty and lost it all. Sometimes hard to tell if Fish or Insider :D
0
Will Ex-Amazon VP reveal who seduced his wife?
Tenebrus7
7 months ago
Did not see that market coming, did not expect a high overlap of polymarket betters and Ethan followers :D
0
Trump nominates RFK Jr. to Cabinet?
Tenebrus7
8 months ago
Good example for "No" actually. Trump was not even thinking about it, hence no offline conversations happening in the background. He would not endorse for sth in return, hence even if he does will take a while. Nice multi conditional bet (1) offline alignment between the two party needs to happen (2) endorsement needs to happen (3) Trump needs to ein (50 equity atm) and (4) RFK needs to get that position. Have already quite some exposure otherwise would bely more. Fair value around 90ct No imo.
1
jenkins
8 months ago
https://x.com/sheislaurenlee/status/1826265945871880632
Marathon (M) Winner
Tenebrus7
8 months ago
Thanks for resolving it correctly!
0
Marathon (M) Winner
Tenebrus7
8 months ago
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any athlete other than Benson Kipruto (KEN), Victor Kiplangat (UGA), Tamirat Tola (ETH), Eliud Kipchoge (KEN), Deresa Geleta (ETH), Alexander Mutiso (KEN), Kenenisa Bekele (ETH), or Abdi Nageeye (NED) wins a Gold medal in the Men’s Marathon at the 2024 Summer Olympics. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
10
·
Liked by n/a, n/a and 8 others
Marathon (M) Winner
Tenebrus7
8 months ago
Other disputed now, it should clearly resolve to No.
11
·
Liked by aenews2, n/a and 9 others
Marathon (M) Winner
Tenebrus7
8 months ago
Agree, the Others Yes betters clearly have not read the rules, just looked if Tani rat Tola is listed separately. This need to resolve to No on other!
2
n/a
8 months ago
Other should resolve to "No" per the rules, Tamirat Tola is specifically listed as one of the eight athletes in the exception list.