#185
Rank
321
Comments
112
Likes Received
163
Likes Given
Trump ends Ukraine war by first 90 days?
Will143
8 months ago
that went well
1
Trump declassifies Epstein list?
Will143
9 months ago
he's joking/pumping
0
Will143
9 months ago
The rules are freaking terrible. Are we betting on releasing a client list or just documents that name people who we already knew were associated with Epstein?
Trump declassifies Epstein list?
Will143
9 months ago
I don't take the rules literally anymore when they conflict with the market title. Poly tends to just ignore them. E.g. I don't think releasing documents with Maxwell's name would count.
0
Will143
9 months ago
The rules are freaking terrible. Are we betting on releasing a client list or just documents that name people who we already knew were associated with Epstein?
Trump declassifies Epstein list?
Will143
9 months ago
The rules are freaking terrible. Are we betting on releasing a client list or just documents that name people who we already knew were associated with Epstein?
4
Will Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico or Canada before February?
Will143
10 months ago
link
0
DEANOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
11 months ago
still under valued. both canadian and mexican governments are convinced tarrifs are incoming after communication with trump
Who will be Trump's Defense Secretary?
Will143
11 months ago
Hegseth wrote in his 2024 book that allowing gays to serve openly in the military is part of a Marxist agenda.
1
Which Trump picks will be confirmed?
Will143
11 months ago
The 4th no is obviously Curtis who isn’t up for re election for six years
0
kjihiuhi
11 months ago
bill o'reilly just talked about rfk jr and pete hegseth and said this are the two most unlikely to be confirmed, he said he'll be surprised if marowsky and collins vote for him and on that fact alone brings his odds at about a 51 percent chance and then there is still mitch mconnell who there is strong rumors that he'll be voting no on hegseth (not surprising)
Which Trump picks will be confirmed?
Will143
11 months ago
the story is based on whistle blower documents compiled years ago that eventually resulted in his termination
0
kjihiuhi
11 months ago
bill o'reilly just talked about rfk jr and pete hegseth and said this are the two most unlikely to be confirmed, he said he'll be surprised if marowsky and collins vote for him and on that fact alone brings his odds at about a 51 percent chance and then there is still mitch mconnell who there is strong rumors that he'll be voting no on hegseth (not surprising)
Who will be Trump's Defense Secretary?
Will143
11 months ago
MAGAs are seething about an unpublished Propublica article. Make it make sense.
0
Who will be Trump's Defense Secretary?
Will143
11 months ago
Propublica went to great lengths to fact check West Point's initial claim that West Point never accepted Hegseth. When Propublica got to the bottom of it, they didn't publish the article.
0
IllegalAlien👽
11 months ago
Pete Hegseth @PeteHegseth We understand that ProPublica (the Left Wing hack group) is planning to publish a knowingly false report that I was not accepted to West Point in 1999. Here’s my letter of acceptance signed by West Point Superintendent, Lieutenant General Daniel Christman, US Army.
Who will be Trump's Defense Secretary?
Will143
11 months ago
I guess it was all the sexual assault and public drunkness
0
0xc1eA1F85190623D95c27b649284D579A412a0e52-1724512381518
11 months ago
Odd his odds fell so low
Who will be Trump's Defense Secretary?
Will143
11 months ago
k bro
0
Will143
11 months ago
what exactly did this market expect? she already said he should have hearing
Which Trump picks will be confirmed?
Will143
11 months ago
bro it's AI powered
1
schwitzer
11 months ago
polymarket, let me help you: if dumbstring.contains("just came across this new tool"): BAN()
Who will be Trump's Defense Secretary?
Will143
11 months ago
no need to be snippy
0
Will143
11 months ago
what exactly did this market expect? she already said he should have hearing
Who will be Trump's Defense Secretary?
Will143
11 months ago
they dont get voted down... the vote doesn't go to the floor. but they get hearing.
0
Will143
11 months ago
what exactly did this market expect? she already said he should have hearing
Who will be Trump's Defense Secretary?
Will143
11 months ago
ernst getting re-elected in 2026. she's going to vote for him. others aren't.
1
Will143
11 months ago
what exactly did this market expect? she already said he should have hearing
Who will be Trump's Defense Secretary?
Will143
11 months ago
what exactly did this market expect? she already said he should have hearing
0
Will Elon Musk buy MSNBC?
Will143
11 months ago
he can't buy it anyways. it's not for sale. in a spinoff process that will take a year.
1
username3
11 months ago
Elon is now $56 billion poorer https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/02/tesla-ceo-elon-musk-loses-bid-to-get-56-billion-pay-package-reinstated.html Less money to buy News Channels with 👀
Which Trump picks will be confirmed?
Will143
11 months ago
add Kash
5
Will Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico or Canada before February?
Will143
11 months ago
Thought this market would have more volume
2
Will Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico or Canada before February?
Will143
11 months ago
Someone responded to you with facts. Tariffs hurt everybody. No one in their right mind wants them.
1
IllegalAlien👽
11 months ago
"He said the import duties on Mexico and Canada would only be removed once illegal immigration and drug trafficking to the US had stopped." Immigrants stopped maybe, but does anyone seriously think the seamstress in charge of Mexico now can stop the cartels exporting - on her end? This seems like an impossible mission and guaranteed tariffs. I'm almost tempted to buy yes.
Will Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico or Canada before February?
Will143
11 months ago
Trump doesn't know or care about the facts.
2
IllegalAlien👽
11 months ago
"He said the import duties on Mexico and Canada would only be removed once illegal immigration and drug trafficking to the US had stopped." Immigrants stopped maybe, but does anyone seriously think the seamstress in charge of Mexico now can stop the cartels exporting - on her end? This seems like an impossible mission and guaranteed tariffs. I'm almost tempted to buy yes.
Will Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico or Canada before February?
Will143
11 months ago
that's what he claimed at least. in reality she rebuffed him.
1
Baalim
11 months ago
Trump posted that he talked with the Mexican president and she agreed to stop migration.
How many named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?
Will143
11 months ago
1 isn't named
0
ShowBaer
1 year ago
Sara is 19! 2 weeks to go!
Which Trump picks will be confirmed?
Will143
0 years ago
that makes no sense. It says "confirmed". How could recess appointments be confirmed.
5
thafalseprofit
0 years ago
I am 1000% sure they changed the rules on this. Recess Appointments were initially being counted!
Which Trump picks will be confirmed?
Will143
0 years ago
Not going to happen.
2
Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?
Will143
1 year ago
she's clearly not in touch with him (per the pod)
0
Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?
Will143
1 year ago
well something like it
0
Will143
1 year ago
Hmm any long comments fail to post.
Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?
Will143
1 year ago
yup
0
Will143
1 year ago
Hmm any long comments fail to post.
Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?
Will143
1 year ago
Hmm any long comments fail to post.
0
Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?
Will143
1 year ago
starting to think they're just not very smart
1
StableGenius420
1 year ago
Look through the YES holders, they seem to go out of their way to randomly devour yes shares of this market. Idk seems like somebody knows something
Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?
Will143
1 year ago
derrr voter fraud
0
Cosmicbets
1 year ago
Ah man she's really running out of time, it's like she doesn't want to pick up any more votes
Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?
Will143
1 year ago
feel like some1 knows something besides the worthless rogan tweet
1
Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?
Will143
1 year ago
Ah shucks it won't let me cross the book
0
U.S. military action against Iran before November?
Will143
1 year ago
boring
2
Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?
Will143
1 year ago
not sure they actually said this.
1
Will143
1 year ago
This is a headline: Vice President Kamala Harris will make not an appearance on Joe Rogan's podcast before Election Day, her campaign confirmed Thursday.
Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?
Will143
1 year ago
This is a headline: Vice President Kamala Harris will make not an appearance on Joe Rogan's podcast before Election Day, her campaign confirmed Thursday.
0
Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?
Will143
1 year ago
You literally made that up
1
Foreseeable.
1 year ago
The discussion here is ridiculous; what are you even talking about?!!! She was on Fox. And Joe is no Maga maniac. Ill buy everything below 10% 😄
Colorado Presidential Election Winner
Will143
1 year ago
Colorado the most educated state and surprisingly urban. MAGA thrives on poorly educated rurals.
0
n/a
1 year ago
Venture outside Denver into the suburbs and it’s amazing how many more Trump flags and car stickers you’ll see. Denver and Boulder are dragging the state down into a progressive hell
Colorado Presidential Election Winner
Will143
1 year ago
Douglas and El Paso are mixed rural/subs. Most of Boulder and Jefferson are subs. Douglas went 7 points for Trump in 2020, Jefferson went +18.5 for Biden.
0
n/a
1 year ago
Venture outside Denver into the suburbs and it’s amazing how many more Trump flags and car stickers you’ll see. Denver and Boulder are dragging the state down into a progressive hell
Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?
Will143
1 year ago
some people who won a ton of money on this site are holding yes. so it's not obvious what will happen and it's foolish to think otherwise.
0
Pirates
1 year ago
The fact that there are people who think she'll be on the podcast is absolutely hilarious 😂
Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?
Will143
1 year ago
what's it say
0
Mountainman
1 year ago
Still do not think that it happens but this video Rogan HQ just released will give the crayon eaters some false hope.... https://x.com/joeroganhq/status/1849224052491321853
Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?
Will143
1 year ago
well it obviously does absolutely nothing, at best. meanwhile he's anti covid vaccine.
0
Will143
1 year ago
I wish Joe Rogan hadn't blocked me on X
Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?
Will143
1 year ago
my sole reply was calling his brain health supplement snake oil.
1
Will143
1 year ago
I wish Joe Rogan hadn't blocked me on X
Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?
Will143
1 year ago
I wish Joe Rogan hadn't blocked me on X
0
Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?
Will143
1 year ago
probably all just a coincidence
2
Favorite to win on Polymarket day before election?
Will143
1 year ago
We need a second derivative market: who will be favorite in this market two days before Election Day.
17
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Liked by n/a, n/a and 15 others
Colorado Presidential Election Winner
Will143
1 year ago
the suburbs are blue. the rurals are very red.
1
n/a
1 year ago
Venture outside Denver into the suburbs and it’s amazing how many more Trump flags and car stickers you’ll see. Denver and Boulder are dragging the state down into a progressive hell
Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?
Will143
1 year ago
After the Fox News disaster Kamala has no choice but to go on Rogan
1
Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?
Will143
1 year ago
xijinping plz pump
4
Israel strikes Iranian oil in October?
Will143
1 year ago
just hold and stop digging hole.
0
Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?
Will143
1 year ago
Kamala is not great at interviews. Trump is worse.
1
MoMoTheGreat
1 year ago
Betting Trump wins and Kamala is a NOGO on Rogen. She is painful to watch. No way she runs anything
Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?
Will143
1 year ago
yes I do. set default to limit.
0
EdgyUsername
1 year ago
I would avoid using market buy and market sell at all costs. I learned that the hard way.
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
Will143
1 year ago
yes, please get it up to 5 c.
0
Mountainman
1 year ago
Hahahaha. Are "NO" holders seriously still spamming the comment section? Pathetic behavior. Do better.
U.S. military action against Iran before November?
Will143
1 year ago
for air defense
1
Playerone
1 year ago
Updates from US boots in Israel : https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1846630026097447033
Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?
Will143
1 year ago
It's not the same thing.
0
Reaper01
1 year ago
That's literally how limit order above current ask price works
Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?
Will143
1 year ago
There’s no market buy with limited slippage tolerance right?
0
Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?
Will143
1 year ago
honestly don't think anything happened. just someone blowing fat fingering and never bothering to set limit orders.
0
TimeTraveler
1 year ago
500 No for 14 cent average, thanks fat fingered person I guess.
Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?
Will143
1 year ago
you're making less and less sense
0
getgood
1 year ago
Fox News alleges that Kamala's team showed up 15 minutes late and cut the interview short (but any day now she's going to do multiple hours with Joe Rogan LMFAO) Source: https://x.com/_johnnymaga/status/1846688183125233948
Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?
Will143
1 year ago
then you better sell eh?
3
Clenc
1 year ago
someone knows that the interview is going to take place, that's why the price of NO is falling
Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?
Will143
1 year ago
sorry I'm trying to parse what someone means by what he actually says.
0
getgood
1 year ago
Fox News alleges that Kamala's team showed up 15 minutes late and cut the interview short (but any day now she's going to do multiple hours with Joe Rogan LMFAO) Source: https://x.com/_johnnymaga/status/1846688183125233948
Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?
Will143
1 year ago
ouch that sucks
0
Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?
Will143
1 year ago
The phrase "cut it short" means to end something earlier than planned or expected. It could refer to stopping a conversation, event, or activity prematurely. For example, if a meeting is supposed to last an hour but ends after 30 minutes, you might say it was "cut short."
0
getgood
1 year ago
Fox News alleges that Kamala's team showed up 15 minutes late and cut the interview short (but any day now she's going to do multiple hours with Joe Rogan LMFAO) Source: https://x.com/_johnnymaga/status/1846688183125233948
Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?
Will143
1 year ago
Wut? He said she cut it short. That wasn't true. Instead of admitting it you insult me.
0
getgood
1 year ago
Fox News alleges that Kamala's team showed up 15 minutes late and cut the interview short (but any day now she's going to do multiple hours with Joe Rogan LMFAO) Source: https://x.com/_johnnymaga/status/1846688183125233948
Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?
Will143
1 year ago
He’s lying. He said she was the 1 who cut it short
0
getgood
1 year ago
Fox News alleges that Kamala's team showed up 15 minutes late and cut the interview short (but any day now she's going to do multiple hours with Joe Rogan LMFAO) Source: https://x.com/_johnnymaga/status/1846688183125233948
Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?
Will143
1 year ago
Watch the end of the interview. He was tellinh her over and over again they were out of time
1
getgood
1 year ago
Fox News alleges that Kamala's team showed up 15 minutes late and cut the interview short (but any day now she's going to do multiple hours with Joe Rogan LMFAO) Source: https://x.com/_johnnymaga/status/1846688183125233948
Trump flips Kamala on Silver Bulletin before the election?
Will143
1 year ago
What? It's just a really good national poll. It doesn't handpick its results and it's the most notable new poll out there. OFC it's in the model now.
0
Kalags
1 year ago
Like I would like to hear a more nuanced answer of the latest polls. Marist ofc ranks highly in Nates book, (A) but if you found about that on twitter like I did, is it handpicked to be the best, most dem leaning poll as of lately? Also Im not sure if its the national polls that move the model. Its likely polls in swing states.
Trump flips Kamala on Silver Bulletin before the election?
Will143
1 year ago
Marist H +5
0
Israel military response against Iran by Friday?
Will143
1 year ago
many people are saying Israel destroyed Iran's oil refinery
2
Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?
Will143
1 year ago
please deposit more $
2
getgood
1 year ago
not true at all. he explicitly says it won't happen at 3:13 https://x.com/RealAlexJones/status/1846328064575242566?s=19
2024 September hottest on record?
Will143
1 year ago
how long was this up: NCEI products and services are now available. Many data products continue to be updated as a result of the outage caused by Hurricane Helene. We apologize for any inconvenience. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov
1
Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?
Will143
1 year ago
Not sure what will happen but a bunch of brainwashed losers holding 'no'.
1
Will Trump go on Joe Rogan before election?
Will143
1 year ago
why would the Bet-David guy know
0
sharky🦈🦈🦈
1 year ago
World richest man who is all in on Trump (elon Musk, Trump himself says its happening and today Patrick bet david says its 99% chance of happening.
Israel military response against Iran by Friday?
Will143
1 year ago
I initially thought they wanted to gauge possible US and especially Iranian responses.
0
Xeropunk
1 year ago
Agreed. I don't really understand it either. It's probably not in Israel's best interest to announce they're going to attack, but they keep doing it...
Will Trump go on Joe Rogan before election?
Will143
1 year ago
reverse price decay?!
2
Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?
Will143
1 year ago
why 20 minutes
0
Slade366 - 15686
1 year ago
What are some of the shortest interviews Rogan has done? I know he tends to go LONG, sometimes 3+ hours. Obviously, even Trump isn't going to go on for more than 90 minutes. Would Joe be willing to just have Harris on for 20 minutes?
Israel military response against Iran by Friday?
Will143
1 year ago
... I don't understand the point of these leaks one way or the other.
0
Dnkci
1 year ago
you really think any strategic attack will be announced publicly?
U.S. military action against Iran before November?
Will143
1 year ago
can you read?
1
blastard
1 year ago
If T.H.A.A.D. takes a drone out is this yes?
Israel military response against Iran by Friday?
Will143
1 year ago
Why does Israel keep telling the press they're going to attack.
1
Will Trump go on Joe Rogan before election?
Will143
1 year ago
UH OH For starters, the betting odds for whether Trump will be a guest on The Joe Rogan Experience before Election Day heavily favor his appearance, with odds set at -600 for "Yes" and +350 for "No." This implies an 86 percent probability that Trump will appear on the show.
0
Will Trump go on Joe Rogan before election?
Will143
1 year ago
Elon said Trump will be going on before Trump did. Rogan podcast account has been tweeting about all of this.
0
0x83B0fDE17BEA70d61C5584cd1BA7a61ee5F59da7-1728242205320
1 year ago
The evidence for yes is just super flimsy. Nelk Boys have a tiny portion of their podcast where Trump meanders into some bullshit about how “he thinks” he’s going on Rogan, Elon ran with it and ‘confirmed’ it, and Rogan has said nothing about any of this but the media is still running with it. I don’t think Joe is the type to pick up for either side too, tbh, so without a Kamala appearance there won’t be a Trump one, and I don’t think Kamala is going on either
Will Trump go on Joe Rogan before election?
Will143
1 year ago
plz explain the case for no.
0
Will Trump go on Joe Rogan before election?
Will143
1 year ago
I had that thought for a second and then I realized a podcast isn't a suitable platform for a debate.
1
junjiito
1 year ago
No holders this might be a good hedge: https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-another-debate/will-there-be-another-debate?tid=1728956010104 most likely if either were to appear they’d appear at the same time
Will Trump go on Joe Rogan before election?
Will143
1 year ago
in what sense
0
Eyebrows
1 year ago
Whether this goes yes or not, this turn of events is funny.
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Will143
1 year ago
right but why
0
Glurmo
1 year ago
2 look still very underevaluated look on polysharks.com
U.S. military action against Iran before November?
Will143
1 year ago
tick tock
0
Will Trump go on Joe Rogan before election?
Will143
1 year ago
he obviously doing it
0
JoeBETS
1 year ago
Joe doesn't even support trump LOL, he's more of a lesser of 2 evils type of guy, to insinuate he brings trump on is to insinuate he's a trump supporter. Joe is not showing his hand like that, no fucking way
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Will143
1 year ago
I’d pay good money to understand why people smarter than me are holding 2 debates
0
Glurmo
1 year ago
2 look still very underevaluated look on polysharks.com
Will there be another debate?
Will143
1 year ago
X is more pro trump than fox news. Its main purpose is electing trump.
0
Matter15
1 year ago
Trump is a narcissist and Kamala likes making a fool out of herself, there will be another debate, more than likely an x spaces debate
Trump flips Kamala on Silver Bulletin before the election?
Will143
1 year ago
a good reason to bet "yes" here is if you think (for whatever reason) that her poll numbers are actually slipping. A bad reason would be looking at the number of previous flips in the model and projecting that forward. those flips were caused by something artificial he introduced into the model, which won't be repeated.
0
Shayku
1 year ago
Compare with this market: https://polymarket.com/event/will-harris-reach-60-before-trump-flips-her-on-silver-bulletin/will-harris-reach-60-before-trump-flips-her-on-silver-bulletin?tid=1728701803074 -- Right now they're close to equal at 70-30, but this one is strictly more likely to happen. I think that other one is priced correctly.
Trump flips Kamala on Silver Bulletin before the election?
Will143
1 year ago
I'd say the odds are pretty much the same (though that has weird resolution). there's a negligible chance she gets to 60%.
0
Shayku
1 year ago
Compare with this market: https://polymarket.com/event/will-harris-reach-60-before-trump-flips-her-on-silver-bulletin/will-harris-reach-60-before-trump-flips-her-on-silver-bulletin?tid=1728701803074 -- Right now they're close to equal at 70-30, but this one is strictly more likely to happen. I think that other one is priced correctly.
Will there be another debate?
Will143
1 year ago
It requires more nuance than that. He's a fascist narcissist with angry issues. You can still reasonably predict and parse his intentions and motivations.
0
n/a
1 year ago
Doesn't it bother you that he writes everything in capital letters?
Will there be another debate?
Will143
1 year ago
He's a fucking lunatic.
0
n/a
1 year ago
Doesn't it bother you that he writes everything in capital letters?
Will there be another debate?
Will143
1 year ago
I asked Trump campaign senior advisor @LaCivitaC about the letter CNN sent Trump camp asking them to lock in their participation/non-participation for a late October debate by Thurs. Would they change their mind and debate again? "We haven't and we won't," LaCivita says. 3:09 PM · Oct 9, 2024 · 155.2K Views
0
Will there be another debate?
Will143
1 year ago
“THERE WILL BE NO REMATCH!”
0
Will143
1 year ago
I WILL NOT DO ANOTHER DEBATE. THERE IS NOTHING LEFT TO DEBATE.
Will there be another debate?
Will143
1 year ago
I WILL NOT DO ANOTHER DEBATE. THERE IS NOTHING LEFT TO DEBATE.
0
Will there be another debate?
Will143
1 year ago
What will it take to convince you people.
1
Will there be another debate?
Will143
1 year ago
Trump and his campaign have each refused another debate about 5x and we're getting very close to election, but some people still think he'll change his mind. I genuinely don't understand what they are thinking.
2
Frozencomet
1 year ago
dollars are still only 95c here, wild
Israel military response against Iran by Friday?
Will143
1 year ago
What could be more surprising than attacking Iran during a holy day.
4
Will there be another debate?
Will143
1 year ago
BRO, they only proposed
0
Car
1 year ago
they only proposed it bro
Will there be another debate?
Will143
1 year ago
Bret Baier already said that Trump is the one who is holding back a Fox News debate. This is according to Fox, it's "one final pitch". Trump agreeing to a debate right before the election would be the dumbest thing he's ever done.
0
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Will143
1 year ago
Just trying to arbitrage the other market while maintaining net yes 1 debate position 6,000, though right now I'm doubling down .
0
io9000
1 year ago
Thank you
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Will143
1 year ago
I just try to arbitrage with other market tho right now have large net 1 yes position than usual
0
io9000
1 year ago
Thank you
Trump flips Kamala on Silver Bulletin before the election?
Will143
1 year ago
this market still discovering price after a week
3
Milton landfall at what category?
Will143
1 year ago
I'm seeing cat 3 landfall.
0
General.William.T.Sherman
1 year ago
How are you pricing a cat 5 near less than 2 when the NHC is projecting landfall 8mph less than a 5? Yall really think it’s a 90% chance this drops 40 mph at a sub 900 pressure?
Israel military response against Iran by Friday?
Will143
1 year ago
I think they know if they fired their guns
0
EmploiceMuswashans
1 year ago
they also denied every assassination and other attacks, we'll see.
Israel military response against Iran by Friday?
Will143
1 year ago
take it back to 43 c plz
1
Israel military response against Iran by Friday?
Will143
1 year ago
what is it then
0
amitnakesh
1 year ago
its not airstrike just wait before you buy yes trust me
Israel military response against Iran by Friday?
Will143
1 year ago
bom bomb bomb Iran!
0
Israel military response against Iran by Friday?
Will143
1 year ago
It's underwhelming
0
SkinnyArman
1 year ago
drop a link or something
Kamala Silver Bulletin odds >55% Friday?
Will143
1 year ago
Who proposed a resolution
1
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Will143
1 year ago
lol, sell half now at 85c if you're freaking out about it. Though seems like a good bet to me.
0
io9000
1 year ago
WERE GOING DOWN WHATS HAPPENING WE USED TO BE AT 85% I SHOULD HAVE SOLD WE WILL LOSE NO PLEASE
10+ monkeypox cases in US by October 31?
Will143
1 year ago
That's the wrong clade. This is for the new-fangled clade 1.
0
Ruztee
1 year ago
The cdc has clearly passed 10 cases based on this page
Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by Oct 31?
Will143
1 year ago
alright bring out the November market
0
Kamala Silver Bulletin odds >55% Friday?
Will143
1 year ago
Lol
0
schottchris
1 year ago
i expect 5-6 polls this week with an average of 49-49. will that be enough to knock this average down 2%? hopefully it pushed some of those harris +6from 2 weeks ago
U.S. military action against Iran before November?
Will143
1 year ago
I assume "an US missile" means a missile launched by the US.
1
dav1
1 year ago
hmmm, indirectly?
10+ monkeypox cases in US by October 31?
Will143
1 year ago
good point
0
Ruztee
1 year ago
https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/mpox/response/2022/mpx-trends.html
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
Will143
1 year ago
@Justifax ok, sure, devastating.
0
Infringe
1 year ago
waltz holders should exit before they're isnt exit liquidity to exit worthless waltz shares
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
Will143
1 year ago
activote isn't a scientific poll
1
Justifax
1 year ago
uhhh right
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
Will143
1 year ago
ipsos no doubt looking to get out of polling, right? Washington, D.C., October 2, 2024 https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/ipsos-2024-us-national-election-survey-september-2024
0
Justifax
1 year ago
the guy is an idiot
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
Will143
1 year ago
wut
0
Justifax
1 year ago
So no ipsos poll so far, maybe the trump +1 swing state freaked them out. Biden was up +4.3 in 2020 Oct 3rd and only won by a slim 0.03 https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/trump-vs-biden-top-battleground-states/
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
If you click the second one it’s 98 percent
0
Shayku
1 year ago
It's actually Early requ... 2.36% (16,046.42) Yes 55.20% (375,355.17) unknown/50... 42.44% (288,606.25) ... with still 96% of votes to be revealed
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
There are multiple reso requests
0
Shayku
1 year ago
It's actually Early requ... 2.36% (16,046.42) Yes 55.20% (375,355.17) unknown/50... 42.44% (288,606.25) ... with still 96% of votes to be revealed
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
I can’t imagine a less sympathetic group
1
AppleADay
1 year ago
all these poor p1 holders that bought lotto tickets finding out they lost the house ;(
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
You have no idea what you’re talking about
0
zynyz
1 year ago
Just 1 more week bro easy 1%
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
So why the resolution requests made later being voted as an early request?
0
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
there's no such rule though
0
zynyz
1 year ago
Yes whales are revealing screenshots of their votes early during the mandatory hidden period breaking the rules of both Polymarket and UMA, message Polymarket support for them to step in
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
lotto would be better place for your $ tho
0
Will143
1 year ago
that's lotto mentality
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
that's lotto mentality
0
bbman1214
1 year ago
I am willing to risk $6 for $500
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Will143
1 year ago
sarcasm
0
io9000
1 year ago
Thats because you have insider knowledge
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
Aaron28a. but whatever
0
Phat.
1 year ago
why do you care of you winning .. no one is getting out
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Will143
1 year ago
given him two weeks and I bet he changes his mind
0
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
no has no chance. get out now.
1
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
it doesn't matter.
0
PolymaREKT
1 year ago
Just google “ hezbollah deny israel”
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
lol.
0
jemjmee
1 year ago
https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-iran-missile-attack-middle-east-10-02-24-intl-hnk#cm1s0jkww00003b6rij59ajfb “first signs of israel’s anticipation ground invasion” in OCTOBER
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
no holders are just pumping one another
3
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
the announcement was 7 PM ET Sept 30th TECHNICALLY
0
jemjmee
1 year ago
the IDF entered lebanese territory at 3am october 1st 2024 so technically they did not enter in september.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
non combative commandos
0
zynyz
1 year ago
Israeli non combative special ops have been in Lebanon every day for 20 years
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
you mean other than the statements of the army that crossed it and media reports?
1
Myh
1 year ago
any proofs of border crossed ?
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
oh no what will I do
0
n/a
1 year ago
This is going P4 and you're going to have to hold your risky position for another 2 days
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
discord joins you
1
n/a
1 year ago
How do we join the discord
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
click the generate market summary lol
0
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September? Generating... Israel has launched a "limited, localized" ground operation in southern Lebanon, targeting the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah. The operation, which began on September 30, involves Israeli special forces conducting targeted ground raids, supported by aerial bombardments and artillery fire. Despite Hezbollah's denial of Israeli troops entering Lebanon, Israeli officials confirm the initiation of these ground operations, aiming to neutralize immediate threats from Hezbollah near the border. The escalation follows weeks of intense airstrikes and the death of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, resulting in significant casualties and displacement in Lebanon. POWERED BY Perplexity
1
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
no crash will start a bit sooner
2
Kavim
1 year ago
Guys, In 5hrs we will know the results?
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
it's your only hope
2
Kuskooo
1 year ago
Polymarket became more of a "who owns more UMA coins to vote for his resolution wins" than a "truth decides"
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
congrats on being dumb enough to write this
0
zynyz
1 year ago
Yes flood of new account No buyers coming in, congrats on being the first Bond holder in history to be down money on their bond
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
it resolved because there were honest bettors on the other side not the fuckwads who buy at 1c - 2c under the illusion they can steal other people's money with UMA voting
1
zynyz
1 year ago
People arguing Yes because the small November market resolved incorrectly with no disputes means they don't have any arguments related to the actual rules of this market.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
in september
0
Shayku
1 year ago
When did the November market resolve?
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
you are the dumbest people on earth
2
yevh97
1 year ago
Pence and his gang are big scammers and manipulators. I think they have bribed UMA, and the decision will be yes
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Will143
1 year ago
Trump himself and the campaign told us countless times he wasn't doing another one but it never seemed to change the price.
0
MalikNabers
1 year ago
Cue a post by Shayku telling us why Don Jr saying Trump won’t debate again is a reason why Trump actually will debate again
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
Perplexity much better for facts, though it gets them wrong too. Chagpt tries to minimize web searcges
1
n/a
1 year ago
I trust the robot more than a flock of whales playing for 1%. Unbias atleast.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
https://www.newsweek.com/israeli-troops-ground-offensive-hezbollah-lebanon-1961705
0
n/a
1 year ago
I trust the robot more than a flock of whales playing for 1%. Unbias atleast.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
lol.
0
n/a
1 year ago
That's what CHATgpt says when you ask "What time and date had the idf crossed the border and engaged in combat eastern time"
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
Scroll down to yesterday night
0
n/a
1 year ago
Source? The IDF officially crossed the border into Lebanon and began engaging in combat on October 1, 2024, around 2:45 AM Eastern Time. This, has no proof. Just what the IDF has said. No footage, the other 3 i mentioned deny it.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
That’s wrong. Can give it to you a bit later. Idf announced yesterday before midnight et.
0
n/a
1 year ago
Source? The IDF officially crossed the border into Lebanon and began engaging in combat on October 1, 2024, around 2:45 AM Eastern Time. This, has no proof. Just what the IDF has said. No footage, the other 3 i mentioned deny it.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
Plus they resolved the other market about entering yes in September
0
n/a
1 year ago
What's the technicality? For a decisive resolution they'd need to say "yes we were invaded by ground troops 30th sept ET time"
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
Huh? Israel said that. Hezbollah partially denied it. But extensive media reports confirmed earlier raids
0
n/a
1 year ago
What's the technicality? For a decisive resolution they'd need to say "yes we were invaded by ground troops 30th sept ET time"
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
Israel hezbollah and media are mentioned as resolution criteria. Nothing else
0
n/a
1 year ago
I have very closely, a few times.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
Read the rules ffs
0
n/a
1 year ago
Can't reply to Will, it's true. If the 3 main sources (Hezbollah, UN and Lebanon) change their mind and say it did happen that means Yes. Which is what should happen if they do. tbc
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
You believe Jews are controlling the world and you can earn 100x betting against something that already happened
0
n/a
1 year ago
@will143 it's a badge of honor.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
Even if true it wouldn’t therefore resolve no
0
n/a
1 year ago
The reality is when the Yes proposal was made is there was no evidence. Proof for "Yes" literally does not exist, that's what I'm interested in. Proof. P4 "too early" Israel even stated it hasn't engaged in ground combat. Meanwhile, UN, Lebanese army and Hezbollah say it didn't happen at all. It's either unknowable, no, or market manipulation. Namaste.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
Why are so many no holders anti semitic
0
n/a
1 year ago
keep polishing the knob of jewish news outlets.
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
Will143
1 year ago
Trump sounded like a lunatic though. Vance sounded reasonable.
0
MalikNabers
1 year ago
People realizing slowly that the people polled on this poll voted 40% that Biden won when he literally couldn’t talk lol.
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Will143
1 year ago
Trump probably yelling about it being rigged?
0
io9000
1 year ago
Thats rough guys looks like i was right :(
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
Will143
1 year ago
He just skips over the part where he joined the CCP!
0
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
Will143
1 year ago
What on earth is Vance talking about
0
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
Will143
1 year ago
IF we care about climate change you'll support fracking!
0
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
Will143
1 year ago
6 talking heads
0
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
DO IT!
1
JGabriel
1 year ago
Buying more. Im not fucking leaving.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
They argued that Israeli raids of southern Lebanon were military actions against Iran?
0
RBvKrsr7ZfRK
1 year ago
Check the UMA Discord history for "Israel military action against Iran by End of 2024". 50 Pence, aenews and Car made the exact same assumptions and claims as in this case. And they lost, because their claims are bogus. This isn’t their first rodeo..
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
There's no extra burden of proof on yes or on no. Also the people betting hundreds of thousands of dollars on this have an extensive knowledge of how UMA disputes operate.
2
Will143
1 year ago
Rules never say both are required for yes. Ya'll just reading that into the rules. "The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by Hezbollah and Israel...." That doesn't say what happens in a split. Then the rest of the sentence says, ", however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used." Also Hezbollah is just denying an invasion force, not targeted raids.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
Rules never say both are required for yes. Ya'll just reading that into the rules. "The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by Hezbollah and Israel...." That doesn't say what happens in a split. Then the rest of the sentence says, ", however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used." Also Hezbollah is just denying an invasion force, not targeted raids.
3
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
There are also two tweets from MTV Lebanon about Hezbollah attacking israeli troops in southern Lebanon villages
0
Will143
1 year ago
US officials have confirmed that Israeli forces conducted special operations raids in Lebanese territory on Monday morning - CNN: https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-lebanon-war-hezbollah-09-30-24-intl-hnk/index.html is the WSJ, the NYT, and all of Twitter evidence enough? https://www.forbes.com/sites/siladityaray/2024/09/30/israeli-special-forces-reportedly-carry-out-cross-border-raids-into-lebanon-as-air-strikes-continue/ Justifax 8 No 1d ago JPOST - Israeli forces conduct small-scale incursions into Lebanon - report https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-822515 WSJ - Israeli Special Forces Launch Raids Into Lebanon Ahead of Possible Ground Incursion - https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israeli-special-forces-launch-raids-into-lebanon-ahead-of-possible-ground-incursion-bf2fe94d TELEGRAPH: "Israeli special forces cross into Lebanon" https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/09/30/israel-hezbollah-hamas-war-gaza-latest-news/ ALJAZAEERA -Israel raids three towns in southern Lebanon Our colleagues on the ground are reporting that the Israeli army launched raids on al-Abbassieh, Harouf and Bedias in southern Lebanon. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2024/9/30/israel-attacks-lebanon-live-israel-expands-strikes-on-beirut-as-105-killed HEZBO, the primary resolution for this market, confirms timing - https://x.com/ajarabic/status/1840407001639301552?s=46
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
US officials have confirmed that Israeli forces conducted special operations raids in Lebanese territory on Monday morning - CNN: https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-lebanon-war-hezbollah-09-30-24-intl-hnk/index.html is the WSJ, the NYT, and all of Twitter evidence enough? https://www.forbes.com/sites/siladityaray/2024/09/30/israeli-special-forces-reportedly-carry-out-cross-border-raids-into-lebanon-as-air-strikes-continue/ Justifax 8 No 1d ago JPOST - Israeli forces conduct small-scale incursions into Lebanon - report https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-822515 WSJ - Israeli Special Forces Launch Raids Into Lebanon Ahead of Possible Ground Incursion - https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israeli-special-forces-launch-raids-into-lebanon-ahead-of-possible-ground-incursion-bf2fe94d TELEGRAPH: "Israeli special forces cross into Lebanon" https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/09/30/israel-hezbollah-hamas-war-gaza-latest-news/ ALJAZAEERA -Israel raids three towns in southern Lebanon Our colleagues on the ground are reporting that the Israeli army launched raids on al-Abbassieh, Harouf and Bedias in southern Lebanon. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2024/9/30/israel-attacks-lebanon-live-israel-expands-strikes-on-beirut-as-105-killed HEZBO, the primary resolution for this market, confirms timing - https://x.com/ajarabic/status/1840407001639301552?s=46
0
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
Look at MTV Lebanon tweets from Sept 28 and Sept 29. Believe Al Jazeera also tweeted about the one on the 28th. The WSJ and CNN both had separate stories about the ground raids on the morning of the 29th which are easily accessible. Yesterday the NYTimes had a story about Biden saying he was well aware of ground operations in Lebanon.
0
NotJustKen
1 year ago
FYI : September Invade market is tanked to almost 50%. This market might follow soon.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
that's a lie
0
Reaper01
1 year ago
show a single independent proof not solely linked to IDF statement
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
there were extensive reports of ground raids even before the IDF announced them officially. Also Lebanon media at least twice reported Hezbollah firing at Israeli troops in southern villages.
0
NotJustKen
1 year ago
FYI : September Invade market is tanked to almost 50%. This market might follow soon.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
imagine being able to do basic math or a calculator
0
0x0067e40e99580bB4f48f377786e1f595557578D4-1722634879022
1 year ago
Imagine you bet 100k to get 200$. Just imagine. Now imagine you bet 100k and you get nothing. All imagination huh
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
who votes?
0
ANudeEgg
1 year ago
Votes take place every other day, so it depends where in the cycle your particular dispute happens to land. For this one, I believe that voting will commence this evening and last for 24 hours. Then there will be a 24 hour period where the votes are revealed by the individual voters.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
you morons
2
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
that would be an even better price
0
Phat.
1 year ago
not really its 50/50
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
fair price is 95 c imo
1
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
FLIP!?!
2
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Will143
1 year ago
Kellyanne acting like she's trying to suppress her gag reflex.
1
Chen1996
1 year ago
https://x.com/KellyannePolls/status/1840904696057237578
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Will143
1 year ago
shooorrr.
0
Chen1996
1 year ago
Just on Fox News: . @realDonaldTrump previews tomorrow's #VPdebate and cracks open the door on another possible presidential debate with @KamalaHarris .
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
*resolved
0
n/a
1 year ago
Invasion" is this considered military entering lebanon for combat reason
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
the November market about Israeli troops entering Lebanon resolves yes on the idf announcement. Since it's still September this one will as well after the 2 day final review.
0
n/a
1 year ago
Invasion" is this considered military entering lebanon for combat reason
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
big no holders just trying to pump this. other market already resolved yes. there's no reasonable dispute.
1
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
maybe not a third level reply?
0
ANudeEgg
1 year ago
You cannot reply to a second level reply.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
i thought there was a bug with setting expiration limits but turned out i was just not entering the minute (which is required)
0
tunatyler
1 year ago
site has been buggy last 3/4 days
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
why is the reply button only occasionally present?
0
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
rather win a small amount of money than lose it.
0
shinigami.3
1 year ago
Bro bought yes @ 0.97
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
I keep expecting price to be at 99.5... then it's not so i dump more money in here.
0
Klein-Bottle-Capital-Management
1 year ago
IDF literally confirmed it on their twitter and No holders still coping lmao
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
lol
1
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
they're not allowed to report on troop movements
1
n/a
1 year ago
Seeing as the results will be from Isreal ans Hezbollah everyone voting yes should visit thr verfied isreali news channels.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
then why are you holding no
0
RBvKrsr7ZfRK
1 year ago
BREAKING: Hezbollah says it targeted Israeli troop movements across from Lebanese border towns - Reuters News
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
@abdendriel right i think intelligence gathering by special forces count as combat operations.
0
Will143
1 year ago
Raiding, also known as depredation, is a military tactic or operational warfare "smash and grab" mission which has a specific purpose.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
A raid is a surprise attack against a position or installation for a specific purpose other than seizing and holding the terrain. It is conducted to destroy a position or installation, destroy or capture enemy soldiers or equipment, or free prisoners. A raid patrol retains terrain just long enough to accomplish the intent of the raid. A raid always ends with a withdrawal off the objective and a return to the main body
0
Will143
1 year ago
Raiding, also known as depredation, is a military tactic or operational warfare "smash and grab" mission which has a specific purpose.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
Raiding, also known as depredation, is a military tactic or operational warfare "smash and grab" mission which has a specific purpose.
1
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
Or a raid for that matter.
0
Will143
1 year ago
What do you think targeting key sites which have been built across the border zone means?
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
What do you think targeting key sites which have been built across the border zone means?
0
severian
1 year ago
Everything revolves around the nature of what 'combat operations' entails. The 'small-scale raids' were aimed at probing, gathering intelligence, identifying key Hezbollah posts, etc. So, reconaissance, intelligence. The question is if that falls under combat operations.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
Israel is "currently conducting" limited operations targeting Hezbollah inside neighboring Lebanon, the US State Department said Monday. "This is what they have informed us that they are currently conducting, which are limited operations targeting Hezbollah infrastructure near the border," State Department spokesman Matthew Miller told journalists. https://www.barrons.com/news/israel-currently-conducting-limited-operations-inside-lebanon-us-7b5a3e81
0
severian
1 year ago
Bring the articles...
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
another article said destroying infrastructure..
0
severian
1 year ago
I respect you as you're buying more Yes tbh, but I've not seen an article say that said special forces have been destroying infrastructure, merely gathering intelligence and identifying key infrastructure
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
CNN say they were attacking Hezbollah posts.
0
severian
1 year ago
I respect you as you're buying more Yes tbh, but I've not seen an article say that said special forces have been destroying infrastructure, merely gathering intelligence and identifying key infrastructure
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
They were destroying infrastructure lol
0
severian
1 year ago
'Israeli special forces have been carrying out small, targeted raids into southern Lebanon, gathering intelligence and probing ahead of a possible broader ground incursion that could come as soon as this week, people familiar with the matter said.'
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
reasoning like this why you worship trump
0
n/a
1 year ago
For it to be resolved as “Yes,” Israeli military personnel need to physically enter Lebanese territory specifically for combat operation. Now, “combat operations” means more than just being present—it involves being there with an intent for combat, like setting up a position, advancing into enemy areas, preparing for a potential fight etc. Direct engagement isn’t necessarily required, but the intent must be combat-oriented.On the other hand, intelligence-gathering missions are different. If Israeli troops enter Lebanon purely for reconnaissance or covert information gathering, and there’s no combat objective, that wouldn’t count under the definition of “combat operations” for this market.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
other than the multiple independent reports about special forces operations conducting raids in the past couple of days there's not that much evidence.
1
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
A recent raid occurred last week, according to officials from the U.S., Lebanon and the United Nations
1
n/a
1 year ago
Even if you do want to state that these "raids" were "combat operations". There is absolutely no credible reporting that states they have happened between September 18 and September 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. There have only been vague claims. The Wall Street Journal reported that Israeli forces have carried out cross-border raids in Lebanon "recently, as well as over the past months". Extremely vague, is "recently" a week ago? Two weeks ago? A month ago? No names, no date, no time. You can't resolve a market to "Yes" based off claims like this.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
from same article: A recent raid occurred last week, according to officials from the U.S., Lebanon and the United Nations. The Lebanese army reported to the U.N. the presence of Israeli troops in an area between Hanita on the Israeli side and Alma El Chaab on the Lebanese side, near the Blue Line—a boundary drawn by the U.N. after Israeli forces withdrew from southern Lebanon in 2000.
1
n/a
1 year ago
Even if you do want to state that these "raids" were "combat operations". There is absolutely no credible reporting that states they have happened between September 18 and September 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. There have only been vague claims. The Wall Street Journal reported that Israeli forces have carried out cross-border raids in Lebanon "recently, as well as over the past months". Extremely vague, is "recently" a week ago? Two weeks ago? A month ago? No names, no date, no time. You can't resolve a market to "Yes" based off claims like this.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
sraeli special forces have carried out small raids into Lebanese territory in recent days as part of preparations for a potential ground offensive, two sources familiar with the matter said. Israeli commandos infiltrated Lebanese territory, targeting Hezbollah positions near the border to gather intelligence and destroy Hezbollah posts in the area, the sources said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military matters.
1
n/a
1 year ago
Even if you do want to state that these "raids" were "combat operations". There is absolutely no credible reporting that states they have happened between September 18 and September 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. There have only been vague claims. The Wall Street Journal reported that Israeli forces have carried out cross-border raids in Lebanon "recently, as well as over the past months". Extremely vague, is "recently" a week ago? Two weeks ago? A month ago? No names, no date, no time. You can't resolve a market to "Yes" based off claims like this.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b_mcJ5VkFkI
0
Kavim
1 year ago
NO.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
well chatgpt says scouting is a combat operation
0
RoseCharts
1 year ago
Same AI that reported Hassan Nasralla alive and well
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS
1
NothingEverHappens
1 year ago
NEIN NEIN NEIN NEIN NEIN XDDDDDDDDD
Will there be another debate?
Will143
1 year ago
Also note his new talking point (shared w/ Fox News) about how she held no press conferences
0
MartinArauz
1 year ago
Trump is playing his cards on social media, he has already had 2 presidential debates and has already publicly said there will NOT be a third one!
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
YES YES YES YES YES
2
Kavim
1 year ago
NO.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
perplexity thinks market conditions are satisfied
1
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
they are there to scout and destroy outposts
0
Bigiorn
1 year ago
You know that for "combat operations" you don't necessarily have to shoot people right?
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
sraeli commandos infiltrated Lebanese territory, targeting Hezbollah positions near the border to gather intelligence and destroy Hezbollah posts in the area, the sources said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military matters.
0
Will143
1 year ago
RBvKrsr7ZfRKOne official described those raids to CNN as “very precise, very targeted, very small raids” – of the kind where “you go in, you go out” to specifically target Hezbollah’s capabilities.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
RBvKrsr7ZfRKOne official described those raids to CNN as “very precise, very targeted, very small raids” – of the kind where “you go in, you go out” to specifically target Hezbollah’s capabilities.
0
Tories4Harris
1 year ago
MONTHS: The incursions follow months of similar covert missions in which Israeli special forces briefly crossed the Lebanon border for reconnaissance, but have increased in intensity in recent days as commanders prepared for a wider maneuver, three of the officials said.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
then why did you sell 3k
0
Remontada
1 year ago
It can happen at any time. It is nearly certainly already happening, but behind the fog of war.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
just stop
0
Foreseeable.
1 year ago
Ramyeh is a small Town in Southern Libanon: TheTelegraph, MTV Lebanon (1.6m followers), Hesbollah and multiple other channels have been reporting on this now. Look on Google Maps for yourself: Ramyeh, Lebanon.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
then buy up
0
CometoJesusMoment
1 year ago
Israeli troops are now in villages inside Lebanese territory, but we need an official statement.
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
Ricardo
1
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
is there a way to convert yes and no positions that cancel out?
0
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
you go from arguably to definitely in an hour.
0
Justifax
1 year ago
The rules say 'any portion'. If Israel starts occupying Lebanon's maritime territory especially for the purpose of controlling who can pass through it - that definitely satisfies both invasion and the rules.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
is that a military offensive?
0
Justifax
1 year ago
"However, if, for example, a ship arrives from Iran - it may be stopped in front of the Lebanese coast" Arguably, any portion includes maritime territory.
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Will143
1 year ago
We'll see if a market called "Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?" resolve on the basis of Israel stopping ships from Iran.
0
Nasrallah remains Hezbollah leader through Oct 31?
Will143
1 year ago
Nasrallah was always alive!
0
Kamala Silver Bulletin odds >55% on Friday?
Will143
1 year ago
No one else has lag?
0
Kamala Silver Bulletin odds >55% on Friday?
Will143
1 year ago
I have absolutely no idea what will happen.
0
Kamala Silver Bulletin odds >55% on Friday?
Will143
1 year ago
lag?
0
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Will143
1 year ago
he's not satisfied with bulldozing businesses and streets in the West Bank.
0
Car
1 year ago
Netanyahu under pressure: In sign that there will bo no ceasefire in Lebanon, Israel’s National Security Minister Ben Gvir threatens PM Netanyahu that his faction will leave the government in such case. As it had been with the talks on hostages deal and a truce in Gaza, Ben Gvir will get what he wants
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Will143
1 year ago
I thought peace prevailed
0
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Will143
1 year ago
wow.
0
Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by Oct 31?
Will143
1 year ago
what sorts of connections
0
Foreseeable.
1 year ago
After Sweden, MPOX C1 is now also in Kenya, Thailand and India. Its Spreading, and the US has 300m inhabitants with thousands of connections to areas as Congo and Burundi daily. https://x.com/Monkeypoxtally/status/1838307798678982905
2024 September hottest on record?
Will143
1 year ago
the the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index is a list of decreases/increases relative to average temp from 1951 to 1980
2
footure
1 year ago
Sept will likely be hottest on record but this market seems to have duelling clauses for Yes. 1) an increase greater than all other Septembers, but also 2) a Sept record.
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Will143
1 year ago
I don't see how Hezbollah can enter a cease fire after the last week.
1
Kamala Silver Bulletin odds >60% on Friday?
Will143
1 year ago
anyone know if rewards included in profit/loss stat?
0
100+ monkeypox cases in US by October 31?
Will143
1 year ago
so technically this can't resolve yes
1
MrCalchas
1 year ago
isn't the name MPOX now or something?
Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by Sep 30?
Will143
1 year ago
poly should limit amount of yes shares bettors can hold.
0
Kamala Silver Bulletin odds >60% on Friday?
Will143
1 year ago
why are polls still being added with candidate name "convention bounce for Donald Trump"
0
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Will143
1 year ago
psst.... nothing happening
0
Will there be another debate?
Will143
1 year ago
fcking misclicks
1
Women's Chess Olympiad 2024 Winner
Will143
1 year ago
India was always winning this
0
polybetter932
1 year ago
India still needs to win 4 more rounds, not so sure if they should be such a favorite here
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Will143
1 year ago
lol Harris had a bounce BECAUSE of the debate. Therefore he should do another one that he would also surely lose? Or should he just wait a week for poll numbers to improve?
0
Shayku
1 year ago
This one is gonna hit home - https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-harris-tops-trump-two-points
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Will143
1 year ago
debate bumps are temporary and this one will pass soon. The last thing Trump should want is a 2nd debate that would be closer to when people are voting. The only debate he ever 'won' was against the 2024 version of Biden. It'd be a terrible decision to enter another debate. I'm still flummoxed Kamala was trying to lock him into a 2nd and 3rd debate before the 1st one.
0
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
Will143
1 year ago
YOU'RE RUINED!!!
0
bliss3
1 year ago
AAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHH 📉📉📉🔻📉
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
Will143
1 year ago
a joke I assume?
0
Will143
1 year ago
what was that thing about 30 day t bills pricing in 95% chance
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
Will143
1 year ago
what was that thing about 30 day t bills pricing in 95% chance
0
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
Will143
1 year ago
the rich got richer
1
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
Will143
1 year ago
noice
1
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
Will143
1 year ago
the set expiration is so buggy
2
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Will143
1 year ago
In fact military leaders who served under you call you a disgrace!
0
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Will143
1 year ago
if they had another debate she should should bait him into talking about black immigrants eating cats and dogs again. he would not be able to resist being called out on it.
0
Kamala wins and immediately bans X?
Will143
1 year ago
dumb
3
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
Will143
1 year ago
just 2 out of past 3?
3
MaverickMoves
1 year ago
Since the 1980s, 25 basis point rate cuts have become the Fed's preferred course of action. In fact, only 2 interest rate cut cycles have BEGUN with rate cuts greater than 25 basis points: 1. 2001, during the Dot-com bubble 2. 2007, during the Financial Crisis
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Will143
1 year ago
that makes sense 🙄
1
Shayku
1 year ago
Post-debate polling has started coming is and is looking positive for Harris. By the end of the week, he (small) lead should be confirmed, and at that point the pressure will really be on.
Another Trump x Musk space before October?
Will143
1 year ago
Musk is too busy to have another interview.
0
Favorite to win on Polymarket week after debate?
Will143
1 year ago
I'm just trying to free ride off the manipulation of others
2
Ohio Presidential Election Winner
Will143
1 year ago
they both had 8 point margin.
0
Andy-Beshear
1 year ago
If Iowa is only +4 Trump, Ohio is a coin flip.
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Will143
1 year ago
it was clearly a campaign decision to repeatedly announce he wasn't doing another debate. saying he might change his mind depending on his mood in response to reporter questions was obviously just an attempt to pretend like he's not afraid of debating her a second time and I'm surprised anyone interpreted it otherwise.
0
ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?
Will143
1 year ago
what's a 'specific relation'?
1
Will143
1 year ago
these rules are idiotic
ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday?
Will143
1 year ago
these rules are idiotic
1
Will Trump visit Aurora in September?
Will143
1 year ago
it's a bit like visiting the UK and expecting Sharia law.
0
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Will143
1 year ago
1 no shares going to be worth 15 c less by Monday.
1
Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by Sep 30?
Will143
1 year ago
someone should bet a million on this. go to central Africa, get infected, and try to sneak back into the US.
4
Favorite to win on Polymarket week after debate?
Will143
1 year ago
perhaps look at the # of shares by top 3 holders
0
EdgyUsername
1 year ago
Why's it 74% when she's only 0.5% ahead on Polymarket?
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Will143
1 year ago
Other than not wanting to lose the election, why wouldn't Trump want a second debate?
1
Who will win the debate according to polls?
Will143
1 year ago
They say the end is coming.
0
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
Will143
1 year ago
Insiders?!
1
Who will win the debate according to polls?
Will143
1 year ago
bro is insane
4
Who will win the debate according to polls?
Will143
1 year ago
what?
0
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
Will143
1 year ago
why wouldn't it be 50 bps
3
2024 September hottest on record?
Will143
1 year ago
how reassuring
1
aenews2
1 year ago
I'm here
2024 September hottest on record?
Will143
1 year ago
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
0
2024 September hottest on record?
Will143
1 year ago
cause reasons
1
epicRNG
1 year ago
Those on the no side, how sure are you and why?
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
Will143
1 year ago
der
0
1273not1272
1 year ago
Ed it’s controlled by the Federal Reserve lol. Suggested read: “The Creature From Jeckyl
Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?
Will143
1 year ago
Eager to see if market manipulation can get anywhere close to a flip
0
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
Will143
1 year ago
you're wrong. but go bet on it.
2
mrcool59
1 year ago
I think interest rates are too low and the fed is incompetent or being political. The data shows that inflation will either spike or remain stagnant at its current level for a very long time if they cut.
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
Will143
1 year ago
now 39% .50 cut, 61% .25 cut.
0
Foolish
1 year ago
As of Sept 3rd 2024, the market is pricing in a 63% probability of .25 cut and 37% for .50 bps cut. Dunno why the odds aren't reflecting the current market pricing.
2024 September hottest on record?
Will143
1 year ago
argh
0
Will Biden finish his term?
Will143
1 year ago
no
0
Mountainman
1 year ago
Is Biden still currently in office as we speak? I never hear or see from this guy anymore.
Will Brazil unban X before October?
Will143
1 year ago
he claims he was the victim of several attempts
0
XiJinPing
1 year ago
honestly surprised theres no assasination markets on elon yet... he's making a lot of powerful enemies right now (dear fbi, i dont want these, im just surprised)
2024 September hottest on record?
Will143
1 year ago
Aenews has 'yes'.
0
EdgyUsername
1 year ago
Fair enough, but on that same site they have September 2024 at over 40%, so I'm not totally crazy. You might be right though.
2024 September hottest on record?
Will143
1 year ago
also they were really cheap here.
1
EdgyUsername
1 year ago
You make a good point, but why then did you initially bet August would not be the hottest month and 2024 wouldn't be the hottest year?
2024 September hottest on record?
Will143
1 year ago
forecasting/hedging. had 2024 being hottest year on Kalshi.
1
EdgyUsername
1 year ago
You make a good point, but why then did you initially bet August would not be the hottest month and 2024 wouldn't be the hottest year?
2024 September hottest on record?
Will143
1 year ago
is this a serious question? do you know what you're betting on?
0
EdgyUsername
1 year ago
What made you think it would fall to 20 cents or less?
2024 September hottest on record?
Will143
1 year ago
Damn thought this would fall to 20 cents or less lol. Just going to assume people know more than me.
0
Will Brazil unban X before October?
Will143
1 year ago
They’re already losing money cause no content moderation
0
ElonMuskin
1 year ago
8% of X users are brazilians. All Elon needs to do is appoint someone in Brazil. He will do it with a lot of laywers. The chance of X staying off in Brazil for over 60 days is really low.
2024 September hottest on record?
Will143
1 year ago
what is Uma
0
sosuke
1 year ago
ah yes another rigged market on polymarket and if it isn't rigged from the start, uma and polymarket will solve that
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before September?
Will143
1 year ago
And then once they issue an additional context message there's no guide on the entire site explaining how that should be interpreted (does it have the full force of the original rule or not).
0
Will143
1 year ago
The rules should have been just a ceasefire agreement defined as a ceasefire agreement, because the specified criteria of a "a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Israel and Hamas between May 29, 12:00 PM ET and August 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET" might be met. Or this is considered informal or unratified or verbal?
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before September?
Will143
1 year ago
The rules should have been just a ceasefire agreement defined as a ceasefire agreement, because the specified criteria of a "a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Israel and Hamas between May 29, 12:00 PM ET and August 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET" might be met. Or this is considered informal or unratified or verbal?
0
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before September?
Will143
1 year ago
It’s called something else but the definition fits
0
ThisIsSparta
1 year ago
It's not a ceasefire, it's a humanitarian pause. I live in Israel btw, so you can't bullshit me. In June we had a humanitarian pause as well/
JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee?
Will143
1 year ago
why on earth would they want to replace JD Vance. He's a star.
0
Trump flips Kamala on Nate Silver's Bulletin?
Will143
1 year ago
probably
0
kdubhotsauce
1 year ago
does someone know something I don't? why is yes so highj
Trump flips Kamala on Nate Silver's Bulletin?
Will143
1 year ago
Come on. do something.
1
JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee?
Will143
1 year ago
read the rules
0
# of debates between Trump and Harris?
Will143
1 year ago
the country would be a worse place without the opportunity to be educated by Donald Trump on the most pressing issues
2
Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?
Will143
1 year ago
What happened
0
Will Kamala flip Trump on Polymarket in August?
Will143
1 year ago
look at the differences in volume though
0
n/a
1 year ago
bets on polymarket about polymarket shouldnt exist imo. too many conspiracies are born lol
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?
Will143
1 year ago
What do these clarifications means? Are they addendums to the rules or an explanation of the proposed outcome?
0
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?
Will143
1 year ago
it'd be screwed up if they resolved it no after issuing the rule clarification
1
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August?
Will143
1 year ago
how is it a clarification if it resolves the market
2
RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?
Will143
1 year ago
The rules suggest that stating his support by itself will not qualify when they say "if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. endorses Trump before his public address and then reiterates his support during his address, this will qualify." This rule is unnecessary/nonsensical if merely publicly stating he publicly supports Trump counts as an endorsement.
4
RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?
Will143
1 year ago
that's not an endorsement under the rules
1
0x94430aD093f9d6BB524D1C6758a9FE5f11AeF767-1723079893160
1 year ago
Look again. It says backing Trump
RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?
Will143
1 year ago
not under the rules
1
0x94430aD093f9d6BB524D1C6758a9FE5f11AeF767-1723079893160
1 year ago
This is so stupid. Of course he endorsed him
RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address?
Will143
1 year ago
they are?
0
thakattack19
1 year ago
The rules are pretty clear. It says RFK can say "support" as long as he "endorsed" prior to the press conference. Axios and AP are currently reporting he did before the press conference.
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before September?
Will143
1 year ago
think the rules are unclear about whether humanitarian pauses count...
0
Harris-Walz Democratic ticket on election day?
Will143
1 year ago
this is a death market I guess
3
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before September?
Will143
1 year ago
a polio pause
0
Justifax
1 year ago
A big question is whether the huminatarian pause will count as I believe Hamas supports that for the polio vaccine. Likely the dems will be happy with anything at this point.
Fed Interest Rates: September 2024
Will143
1 year ago
Economist for the Heritage foundation.
0
RBanister
1 year ago
I'm surprised this market hasn't adjusted yet...https://x.com/RealEJAntoni/status/1824062889776361896
Kamala Harris replaced as nominee at DNC?
Will143
1 year ago
Always sell at 99.8?
0
Tim Walz replaced as Democratic VP nominee?
Will143
1 year ago
Meanwhile he's the only one of Harris, Trump, Vance to have positive favorability #s
2
Will143
1 year ago
Walz efforts to destigmatize gay students in the 1990s is apparently grooming to MAGA. Weird!
Tim Walz replaced as Democratic VP nominee?
Will143
1 year ago
Walz efforts to destigmatize gay students in the 1990s is apparently grooming to MAGA. Weird!
2
2024 August hottest on record?
Will143
1 year ago
the climate is out of control
2
2024 August hottest on record?
Will143
1 year ago
September is more interesting and it’d be based on long term trends
1
BennyS
1 year ago
September is an easy "No" though, is that why?
Tim Walz replaced as Democratic VP nominee?
Will143
1 year ago
many very smart people are saying he's up against it
1
Democratic Nominee 2024
Will143
1 year ago
why would you cash out of a 3% return in a day
0