#115
Rank
101
Comments
63
Likes Received
24
Likes Given
Will either Kamala or Trump win every swing state?
TheGuru
2 months ago
Kamala has about a 10% chance of winning all swing states, AZ, GA and NC are all 25% each, but as all are correlated and are about 1.5% leaning to Trump she has a good chance to win all of them if she wins 1 of them
0
TheGuru
2 months ago
I'll explain why I hold so much yes shares. Firstly, there is another market on this website asking how many swing state will Trump win. Of course if Trump wins 7 or 0 (as Kamala would win all 7) the total should add up to the same as the yes in this market. https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-swing-states-will-trump-win It actually adds up to 29/30, hence why this market is undervalued.
Will either Kamala or Trump win every swing state?
TheGuru
2 months ago
There are other reasons, for example nate silver's model has Trump winning all swing states at 23.7% alone, yet has Trump at 51% to win the election and 37% to win Michigan. These states are highly correlated. a polling error of over 3% either direction will resolve in this market being yes and in politics that happens a lot
0
Will either Kamala or Trump win every swing state?
TheGuru
2 months ago
I'll explain why I hold so much yes shares. Firstly, there is another market on this website asking how many swing state will Trump win. Of course if Trump wins 7 or 0 (as Kamala would win all 7) the total should add up to the same as the yes in this market. https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-swing-states-will-trump-win It actually adds up to 29/30, hence why this market is undervalued.
0
Will either Kamala or Trump win every swing state?
TheGuru
2 months ago
If you guys are going to keep giving me cheap shares I will keep buying them
0
Virginia Presidential Election Winner
TheGuru
3 months ago
Nate Silver's model is wrong, he has Alaska at a 20% chance for the dems...
4
Trinity
3 months ago
Nate Silver's model has Trump at only a 3% chance of winning Virginia. I'm a Trump supporter but he's not taking Virginia!
Virginia Presidential Election Winner
TheGuru
3 months ago
Just for context, about 1500 non-citizens have been allowed to vote from this. It's somewhat of a small amount and will likely increase republican support in the millions of others who can vote
0
SillyDipshit
3 months ago
Judge just allowed non-citizens to vote lol. Good luck, Republicans!
Virginia Presidential Election Winner
TheGuru
3 months ago
Thanks for the cheap shares :)
5
Super Bowl Champion 2025
TheGuru
3 months ago
I'm going to try and sell my positions at quite appealing prices. Just because I'd prefer to use the money for election bets basically
0
Bills vs. Jets
TheGuru
3 months ago
I've got to admit that was a lucky result, could have gone either way
6
Bills vs. Jets
TheGuru
3 months ago
This game is actually insane
6
Bills vs. Jets
TheGuru
3 months ago
Every bet I've ever made is manual dude. I mostly bet on sports for fun, there's very little edge and the variance in sport is massive so it's mostly for fun
1
DeucePapi
3 months ago
Guru turned off the bot trader to join the common
Bills vs. Jets
TheGuru
3 months ago
Good luck everyone!
4
Favorite to win on Polymarket day before election?
TheGuru
3 months ago
You're right, but consider it's equally as likely the polls will shift 2% more to Trump and it's game over. Also of course polls could remain steady from here and Trump can still be around 53% to win
3
BuckMySalls
3 months ago
this market is just asking for trouble. i realize i'm up against it now with fredi doing qe on trump shares but all it takes is a week of +2 polls for kamala in the rust belt and she'll be right back up there. they're subbing in obama to start campaigning for her in the fourth quarter. gl maga moonbois
Will Trump win Florida by 8+ points?
TheGuru
3 months ago
Actually I've revised my estimate. nate silver has Trump ahead by 3.4%, 270towin has Trump up 2.6%. Realistically if Trump wins Florida by 8%+ states like Minnesota become somewhat of a tossup. This market should be closer to 10%
1
Will there be a 269-269 tie in Electoral College?
TheGuru
3 months ago
This market should be at 0.2%, almost no chance. Kamala has to lose the 2nd nebraska district for this to happen. She's polling 9 percent ahead and has a 90% chance of winning. And she has to win a specific set of states that has about a 2% chance of occurring as well.
0
Will Trump win Florida by 8+ points?
TheGuru
3 months ago
Based on the polls Trump has a 4% lead in Florida. That means in theory the chances of a 8% victory is the same as a democratic victory in Florida. The dems are at 15% to win Florida... This market is overvalued by about 10%
1
Favorite to win on Polymarket day before election?
TheGuru
3 months ago
I'd assume the other would win by default as they'd be the favourite
8
SafeBets
3 months ago
I think the Rules need to clarify what happens in case any of the two drops before the election
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
TheGuru
3 months ago
Actually if you look at the yougov poll... 39% of partakers in the poll identified as democrats, 33% as republicans. So that's a 6% bias
4
0x63325293geDetgu4g028d8hh9dDegjAsuneg44
3 months ago
4 polls so far. Yougov show 42-41 to Vance, they're unbias (+0.2% lean towards Trump in Nate Silver house effects). CNN had 51-49 Vance, they tend to be +0.8% Trump (NS h.e.). Focaldata had 50-50, they are unbias (+0.2% Harris NS h.e.). JL have 50-43 Vance, they're Trump simpers (+2.5% Trump NS h.e, MASSIVE bias). So...Ipsos? +1.7% Harris NS h.e., MASSIVE bias. In other words. 3 unbias pollsters show a tie; 1 Trump simp shows Vance winning; and we're waiting for the results from a Harris simp. Hmmm, 90 cents being sold for under 40 cents anyone? Ipsos isn't bias, but they're statistically bias; and we might as well be betting on if Trafalgar or Rasmussen is going to favour Trump vs polling averages; sometimes they surprise and have a good Kamala result; but basically their bias is greater than margin of error. I have bet as much as I'm comfortable with. Good luck all. Fwiw I think the debate performance was a tie ;)
Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
TheGuru
3 months ago
Well if ipsos doesn't release a poll Vance wins by default as he won in yougov's poll
13
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Liked by Memofsteel, Justifax and 11 others
EPL: Manchester United vs. Tottenham
TheGuru
3 months ago
Well played, you got me again
0
HelloWorld12
3 months ago
You can sell your bet (share) at any time if someone else agrees to buy it
Giants vs. Cowboys
TheGuru
4 months ago
The giants can't seem to catch the ball. They're dropping it constantly
1
Giants vs. Cowboys
TheGuru
4 months ago
Don't thibnk thats true, he bet big on Tottenham earlier at 86%, they got a red card 7 minutes in and still won 3-0
0
DeucePapi
4 months ago
Dude loves the underdogs too which says a lot about his pick tonight
Giants vs. Cowboys
TheGuru
4 months ago
If helloworld12 has bet on the cowboys that's not a good sign. Every time I bet against him he wins lol
3
Giants vs. Cowboys
TheGuru
4 months ago
Good luck sir
0
🤺JustPunched
4 months ago
Let's bet on this shit!!!!
NFL Sunday
TheGuru
4 months ago
Yes, gambling can be like that. Equally with a high enough sample size you will get remarkable streaks of luck too, but most will attribute that to skill
3
Apsalar
4 months ago
well you win some and you lose some. and then lose some more. and then lose some more. and then lose some more. and then
Super Bowl Champion 2025
TheGuru
4 months ago
The Ravens will only get better as the season goes on. They could easily be 3-0
1
NFL Thursday
TheGuru
4 months ago
Definitely
1
Cryptowzrd
4 months ago
I mean patriots can still come back game just started
NFL Thursday
TheGuru
4 months ago
You guys think I bet big enough on this one?
2
Favorite to win on Polymarket week after debate?
TheGuru
4 months ago
Is the order book glitching for anyone else here?
0
Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?
TheGuru
4 months ago
Well played sir
2
Apsalar
4 months ago
this one was more fun than the last one! see everyone next week!
Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?
TheGuru
4 months ago
Still not over
1
Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?
TheGuru
4 months ago
It's not over yet don't get too carried away
1
Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?
TheGuru
4 months ago
Yes this is accurate
1
erectecoli
4 months ago
need close to 40 mins, currently its 76-21 with 12 ties
Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?
TheGuru
4 months ago
Not true, I've been following this pretty closely it's a lot longer
1
Glorp
4 months ago
in 15 minutes, it will be mathematically impossible for trump to win
Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?
TheGuru
4 months ago
Don't give people enough incentive to flip this around, just cruise to a big W
3
Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?
TheGuru
4 months ago
Don't give the Trump side too much value, just chill. You could end up sweating if someone puts in a million dollar order on the trump side
3
Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?
TheGuru
4 months ago
Don't buy too much Kamala you'll just encourage people to buy the Trump on the cheap and swing the main back like last time
5
Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?
TheGuru
4 months ago
It's always quiet before the storm
12
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Liked by ArtVandala..., sharky🦈... and 10 others
Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?
TheGuru
4 months ago
Kamala should be ahead of Trump, so any order that changes the main market in favour of Kamala is profitable. That makes the incentive to do so substantial
10
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Liked by ArtVandala..., kekkonen and 8 others
Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?
TheGuru
4 months ago
Thanks for the big position, the main presidential market is overestimating Trump currently, the market should adjust soon. If it doesn't I'll make it adjust myself
15
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Liked by Sirjay, n/a and 13 others
NFL Monday
TheGuru
4 months ago
I have a feeling this will be a high scoring game, maybe 50 points +
1
Speed Chess Championship Winner 2024
TheGuru
4 months ago
Well played everybody
0
Speed Chess Championship Winner 2024
TheGuru
4 months ago
I'd like to revise my calculation from 18-12 to 19-11 just for my good friend Nook ;)
5
Speed Chess Championship Winner 2024
TheGuru
4 months ago
This looks competitive, similar to how it should be
0
Speed Chess Championship Winner 2024
TheGuru
4 months ago
Your analysis is bad because rapid is a completely differnet time control and Magnus plays dumb openings on chess.com and tries less so your analysis will be weighted towards Alireza
0
OmenOfLord
4 months ago
Carlson had less over hans than Hikaru had. Also you have to weight recent performance higher.
Speed Chess Championship Winner 2024
TheGuru
4 months ago
If you assume they play 30 games and Carlson has an elo rating of 72 points higher than Alireza the average expected score is 18-12 to Carlson
4
US Open Final: Sabalenka vs. Pegula
TheGuru
4 months ago
This aged well
0
RusselWilson
4 months ago
3:1 on Pegula is deep value
Speed Chess Championship Winner 2024
TheGuru
4 months ago
Hans is at least entertaining
4
US Open: Swiatek vs. Pegula
TheGuru
4 months ago
Good luck Mr Weedle
0
US Open: De Minaur vs. Draper
TheGuru
4 months ago
Tryin to strike a chord and it's probably De Minaur
0
Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?
TheGuru
4 months ago
Stop fearmongering. Trading, providing liquidity and buying is exactly what the website is used for and designed to do.
3
HaterzLoserz
4 months ago
From ToS here too, wonder how applicable it is if people fuck around with this + main market with serious volume at the same time. "use the Services in any manner that could interfere with, disrupt, negatively affect, or inhibit other users from fully enjoying the Services, or that could damage, disable, overburden, or impair the functioning of the Site or the Services in any manner; engage in activity that violates any Applicable Law, rule, or regulation concerning the integrity of trading markets, including (but not limited to) the manipulative tactics commonly known as spoofing and wash trading."
Favorite to win on Polymarket on Friday?
TheGuru
4 months ago
It doesn't matter where Kamala is today, just on Friday
3
US Open: Sabalenka vs. Qinwen
TheGuru
4 months ago
So sad
0
Zverev vs. Fritz - US Open
TheGuru
4 months ago
Fun fact, I decided to grab some strawberries at the end of a game. I left some orders in. I wash them and come back with Zverev getting crushed and now I'm stuck with this massive position lmao
1
EPL: West Ham vs. Manchester City
TheGuru
4 months ago
Man City is arguably the best team in the world, West Ham is an average team expected to finish around the middle of the league. In NFL terms it's like the chiefs vs the bears, something like that
1
MrNFT
4 months ago
I dont even know a single thing about soccer
Super Bowl Champion 2025
TheGuru
5 months ago
Packers too cheap
0
Will Kamala flip Trump on Polymarket in August?
TheGuru
5 months ago
A combination of many things. Disease, dying, scandals e.t.c.
2
0x9733d16542233b38fa2A3432b6106Cbc991Bf034-1720706846557
5 months ago
Whats the case for 2.5% other? One of the candidates dying?
Will Kamala flip Trump on Polymarket in August?
TheGuru
5 months ago
The market was misevaluating Trump's chances by about 2% recently, hence why I bought. My current correct implied chance to win is 50% Kamala, 47.5% Trump, with others at 2.5%
1
X banned in EU before October?
TheGuru
5 months ago
0% chance this happens
5
Tipping Point State in 2024 Election?
TheGuru
5 months ago
There are quite a few close scenarios, e.g one where Harris wins 270-268. Those 3 delegates in those super close races makes Pennsylvania much more likely to be the tipping point state
1
NowItsMyTime
5 months ago
How is Pennsylvania that gives 19 Delegates 3x higher than Georgia that gives 16? What is the logic behind? Remember the tipping pois 2016 and 2020 were both wrong, Florida was higher in tipping points than Wisconsin.
Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?
TheGuru
5 months ago
The womens basketball is the last event USA can get a gold medal in right?
1
Women's Basketball Winner
TheGuru
5 months ago
That was the most ridiculous 3
0
Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?
TheGuru
5 months ago
The only reason why USA does well is because it's a developed country with 400 million people. If the UK, France and the Netherlands were 1 country they'd win the olympics every time, despite the combined population being 150 million
2
Culture
5 months ago
What is happening is that the USA is becoming progressive a country full of faggots that no longer intimidates anyone no one respects the USA anymore and to win they have to sweat too much not only in the games .enough with their shitty movies they make in Hollywood all politically correct there is no initiative anymore they become absurd. I have always defended the USA but they have hit rock bottom and are losing more and more power status and will be surpassed by the Chinese if they don't change. The Chinese may have a 9 centimeter penis but they are working harder than the USA to become a power.
Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?
TheGuru
5 months ago
I hope China wins more so to shut up all the racists who've been yapping the whole olympics than the 200k I'd win lol
4
Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?
TheGuru
5 months ago
On average USA should have won about 1.5 gold medals from the 100 x 4 relays, they won just 1. This is going to be close
2
Men's Basketball Winner
TheGuru
5 months ago
I still think he would have lost. And it totally is the way to go, I almost made 200k today
0
ootharju
5 months ago
Laying USA not the way to go now, Lyles was the last one cos he had covid
Men's Basketball Winner
TheGuru
5 months ago
Well, that was a shame haha
3
200m Winner (M)
TheGuru
5 months ago
YESSSSSSSS
13
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Liked by EmpirePend..., Scoobs and 11 others
Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?
TheGuru
5 months ago
People re trying to be fancy and calculate the future with math. At the end of the day China is winning and that's good enough for me
1
Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?
TheGuru
5 months ago
As soon as I bought loads of China within an hour we got a 3% USA guy winning 1500m, the USA womens football win and they're against a fairly weak Brazil team in the final too. Pretty unlucky, need some shockers now like the USA basketball team losing or Lyles losing the 200m
1
Will Kamala Harris drop out in August?
TheGuru
5 months ago
I'll tell you who's buying.... BigD. Check the holders lmao
0
Astoria
5 months ago
who is buying yes bruh
Democratic VP nominee?
TheGuru
5 months ago
You're the person who said you were 100% certain it's Shapiro lmao
1
babybeluga
5 months ago
im the biggest loser
Democratic VP nominee?
TheGuru
5 months ago
My dude, accept defeat. Being stubborn when you gamble just makes you lose more
2
winbet
5 months ago
I'm still buying Andy. Date canceled while I buy
Which party wins Presidency + Popular Vote?
TheGuru
5 months ago
No, D presidency and D popular vote is most likely since there's an almost certainty if the dems win they will also win the popular vote
3
kennyjetski
5 months ago
R Presidency, D Popular Vote is the most likely outcome given the data we have. Got this from a newsletter, gives me everything I need here's the link: https://prediction-pulse.beehiiv.com/p/democratic-vp-nominee-venezuela
Democratic VP nominee?
TheGuru
5 months ago
Something interesting to note is the odds on who wins the election and even PA has basically not changed at all from the point Shapiro was at 70% to now
0
Democratic VP nominee?
TheGuru
5 months ago
Thanks for the apology. Look I don't think it's her, but I got her super cheap and she has a big influence behind the background and a lot of experience. It's possible, but yes it'd be an insane decision
0
COSTCOGUY
5 months ago
I apologize, just seems insane to even consider Hilary when she was the sole reason Dems lost PA
Democratic VP nominee?
TheGuru
5 months ago
Bit hostile. To a neutral it'd be pretty funny. I don't see it happening but who knows, we've seen shock VP picks in the past
3
COSTCOGUY
5 months ago
missed meds today?
Democratic VP nominee?
TheGuru
5 months ago
Imagine if y'all are all thinking it's Walz or Shapiro and it's actually Hillary Clinton lol. Would be hilarious and I'd be a millionaire
5
Democratic VP nominee?
TheGuru
5 months ago
At this point it wouldn't even surprise me. Kamala could shock the world, she's been in the game a long time and has a lot of experience so it was worth it considering I got 1000/1 odds
0
nuhuh
5 months ago
well I know it's not gonna be Hillary Clinton
Democratic VP nominee?
TheGuru
5 months ago
The funny thing about this chat is everyone is pretending they know who he VP is. Just admit it's crazy and you're completely guessing at this point because nobody really knows
3
Democratic VP nominee?
TheGuru
5 months ago
You're just trying to influence the market, like everyone else here. No of us know we're just speculating
0
🤺JustPunched
5 months ago
I'm just being stuffed with infinite no shares of the IDF Soldier
Democratic VP nominee?
TheGuru
5 months ago
The video doesn't say he is VP, but that they want him to be VP
1
Scoobs
5 months ago
Mayor of Philly just let it slip on her instagram even.
Democratic VP nominee?
TheGuru
5 months ago
They're just looking at the odds like everybody else...
4
DarkZuckerberg - 28387
5 months ago
Vance and Trump are both attacking Shapiro heavily. Trump said that picking him would lose Kamala Palestinian voters and Vance called him "a bad Obama impersonation." It seems that the Republican party already knows who the pick is going to be.
Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?
TheGuru
5 months ago
Do you have a link to the group?
0
KingofRingx3
5 months ago
You can suggest markets on the polymarket discord.
Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?
TheGuru
5 months ago
This isn't related to this market but can someone make a market for the English Premier League? Would be cool to predict who would win that
0
Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?
TheGuru
5 months ago
Damn that's a big position. Nice
1
LaCuriosidad
5 months ago
China
Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?
TheGuru
5 months ago
Bet you China get over 30 medals. USA have 27 medals total and only 4 gold. China have 16 medals total but 8 are gold. That's a massive underperformance from the USA so far in the olympics. They have a lot of catching up to do
4
SmartG
5 months ago
This is crazy, China underperform in swimming and gymnastics, gonna have less than 30 gold
Democratic VP nominee?
TheGuru
5 months ago
If Harris actually had a 5 point lead, Trump wouldn't be favourite to win the election. Also, Pennsylvania is the most important state to win by a mile and there's months to the election. Put your money where your mouth is and bet on the democrats to win PA if you're so sure
0
0xwald
5 months ago
I like shapiro, but this flushes his whole narrativ down the toilet: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4800420-harris-lead-pennsylvania-casey-mccormick-poll/
India vs. Sri Lanka - 3rd Cricket T20I Match
TheGuru
5 months ago
It's a tied game, as per the rules
0
Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?
TheGuru
5 months ago
What are you talking about... China are on 6 golds, USA are on 2
0
Punter369
5 months ago
China ain't winning most gold anymore... Fumbled artistic gym (M), 100m breast (M&F), 10m mixed pistol, 10m air rifle (W), 100m free (qualification looks bad, gonna see semis tonight), 200m (breast - worrying after 100m breast); if swimming picks up, there might be a shot but closed my position in China. Bearish
Democratic VP nominee?
TheGuru
5 months ago
I think you're exaggerating mate. And I own 130k shares in him. Maybe 10-20% is reasonable but Kelly and Shapiro are favourites
1
Jerbno
5 months ago
Beshear is extremely undervalued. I'm telling you guys at this point in time there's a 50%+ perchent chance it's him.
First cat to $1b?
TheGuru
6 months ago
Manipulation should be considered cheating, since that's what it is. I'd have no problem if this naturally happened. It did not
0
gopfan
6 months ago
The rules are set in stone and are absolutely clear
First cat to $1b?
TheGuru
6 months ago
Depends who they bought it off. Theoretically possible they bought it from themself if they also provided the liquidity. Obviously it stimulates the market up a little after as well so a bit of an exaggeration
0
Car
6 months ago
You know the person buying 300k$ lost 30k$ because of slippage right?
First cat to $1b?
TheGuru
6 months ago
Some people here would gain $20k or more from that. So there's a lot of vested interest in manipulating the market. Why do you think it happened on the 1 specific website specified and none of the others. Clearly manipulation
0
Car
6 months ago
you really think someone would manipulate the price with 300k$ so they can gain 200$ on Polymarket?
First cat to $1b?
TheGuru
6 months ago
So obviously I'm a little bit biased but considering that's clearly market manipulation should it stand? Literally a 1 second pump with 1 order on 1 website is pretty questionable. Especially considering it's fairly obvious someone did so to force a YES for popcat
0
First cat to $1b?
TheGuru
6 months ago
Okay so this is interesting because that's clearly market manipulation, but technically it did cross $1 billion on 1 website. Someone here with a vested interest in Popcat has manipulated the market and pushed it over.
0
British Open Winner
TheGuru
6 months ago
This didn't age well :(
1
ap1
6 months ago
Bryson wins again trust
Most gold medals at Paris Olympics?
TheGuru
6 months ago
In 2020 USA had 39 and China 38. Great Britain won't win, they just did well in 2012 and 2016 since the London olympics in 2012 gave athletes more motivation. Those athletes are now old/retired
0
KingofRingx3
6 months ago
Most Russian athletes are not allowed to participate. At least not for Russia. This could lead to a surprise. But US is definitely most likely to win this.
Republican VP cont.
TheGuru
6 months ago
So will this market be resolved now?
0
Euro 2024 Winner
TheGuru
6 months ago
Same here. Not sure what's happened
1
elkamello
6 months ago
Why can't I claim my no Netherlands prize? Any help much appreciated